Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 260648
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 26/1200 UTC THRU JUN 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST TO TX AND SRN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES...

A WELL DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING, WHICH SHOULD TAKE THE BULK OF
DEEPER MOISTURE CONTENT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST FROM THE SERN GA COAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
POSSIBLE ACTIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. A
RELATIVE SHEAR AXIS OR VERY EDGE OF 500MB RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO
LIGHT STEERING CURRENT WITH DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT FOR POTENTIALLY
LOCALLY HEAVY QPF. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM, A WELL ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF
CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINFALL IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE TX
PANHANDLE. THIS IS FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRACKING SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH NM, WHICH SHOULD PROCEED SOUTH AND EAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TX. ALSO, A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE NEAR SERN TX AND
JUST SOUTH OF LA COULD FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

...GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND...
...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS...

A BROAD ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL STEER A VIGOROUS UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE
ACTIVE WESTERLIES ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW ZONES OF
INSTABILITY AND PERIODIC MODERATE PRECIPITATION. THE PESKY SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD
YIELD STEADY RAIN OVER THE UP OF MI, WHILE UPPER DIFLUENT FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. MEANWHILE JUST UPSTREAM
WITHIN NWRLY UPPER FLOW ALOFT, A FEW STREAKS OF EMBEDDED TSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD TRACK SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MID MS VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS. MOISTURE CONTENT IS
BELOW AVG HERE BUT THIS REGIME CAN OVER PERFORM IN QPF AT TIMES.

...NWRN US...

A LOW ALOFT JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CA WILL JOIN THE WESTERLIES
AND AN UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA FOR A
THREAT OF DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR NW INTO NRN
ROCKIES. THE HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED TO THE
TERRAIN FROM NERN OR INTO CENTRAL ID.

MUSHER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 511183 513170 514155 510154 506155 500160 497161 496158
      496151 496140 497127 499121 499113 496106 488103 485099
      483093 482091 479092 479095 481110 480118 478124 475123
      474118 473113 473108 475106 475101 472097 471093 466083
      466077 463075 458074 455077 452078 450075 447072 445070
      441069 444077 449084 451088 450092 449095 450100 452103
      451107 448103 443101 439098 436099 434102 427105 421112
      418116 421117 424116 426113 428108 432107 433111 429120
      430123 434120 436117 438115 440116 442121 442126 441132
      438135 424129 417136 414139 412143 412148 410152 416156
      420154 422153 424154 425158 427156 430146 434145 436145
      436148 436151 433152 432154 431166 427168 429170 428175
      428179 428185 432186 434184 436186 433190 427192 423200
      422204 420207 418210 416215 415220 415224 413225 409228
      408232 410234 415235 420236 423234 424227 427228 427233
      429232 431230 433230 437230 444224 451220 455218 455214
      451212 452205 456195 459194 459200 458202 459207 461207
      464205 468203 467198 472188 476186 482186 478179 479175
      481174 485175 495177 498183 503187 509186 511183
 0.01 483644 482636 481631 478629 473630 467635 461638 459641
      455645 453650 454665 454671 453678 452683 452690 449700
      448706 447709 444709 435713 431717 427716 424720 422725
      418734 418740 416743 412752 406747 402748 399750 395759
      395763 397767 401767 403765 405765 406772 404776 399784
      398791 395795 400803 402816 404822 403829 397830 392826
      389822 385820 380820 376822 373820 372814 371810 367809
      362814 359821 356831 354841 353846 353852 353867 354896
      355911 355926 356950 359962 352970 350973 348975 346975
      346965 343966 341969 337971 333972 330969 329966 325964
      322963 321961 323948 325944 323941 317934 312925 310918
      310915 307915 303912 301908 297898 296894 298889 299883
      299876 298870 298863 298858 300854 304846 307844 309840
      312832 315832 319830 320826 323823 327814 329802 331799
      333794 337791 339787 342783 343777 346768 348760 352752
      357742 358728 358723 355720 352708 350706 345707 338710
      323720 318727 312736 307743 300751 294758 291761 290766
      289769 287770 282771 278772 280774 287779 288783 287785
      283788 280792 278794 275795 266796 261798 256799 252800
      250802 241809 237820 237833 240843 241848 244850 247853
      253853 250844 249838 248832 249827 252825 257826 260824
      264827 262831 262837 263842 267851 271852 274850 277848
      279844 281840 283839 285843 286849 284855 282859 279864
      275867 270873 267882 262903 261914 260919 257925 252932
      245939 239945 235950 231957 230962 231968 233972 236975
      239976 242979 244984 245989 244003 244010 242014 237021
      233029 230039 228042 228048 231056 235066 238070 242074
      254085 264097 276107 285113 289110 292106 295102 298099
      304093 309093 314095 319095 324094 327093 331095 335098
      338099 343105 345101 343089 349084 354087 360091 364092
      366090
 0.01 366090 357082 357078 359075 365074 370073 372075 372078
      375085 377089 379087 377085 378076 380068 381063 384063
      388065 399060 407059 406053 399051 396045 392039 395034
      396029 396026 399026 407026 412023 416017 418010 419002
      419996 420993 421982 422962 426954 426947 425942 425937
      425927 424916 423913 423907 427900 433905 443911 448914
      453918 458923 460925 464926 472936 474937 478935 482930
      484928 487927 491923 493919 493914 492907 493901 495892
      495888 493885 489877 488869 486861 485853 483840 481831
      479821 478809 477799 475790 473783 472772 468754 462735
      462731 463728 466720 467714 468706 470686 470677 475672
      482659 483644
 0.01 477081 476081 475081 473081 471083 473086 475084 476082
      477081
 0.01 468105 467097 468094 466092 464090 462087 459086 457088
      455091 457098 460100 463099 463104 461107 459113 462114
      466110 468105
 0.01 448172 450170 450168 448166 447166 445166 443166 442166
      443169 443171 441173 439175 440177 440178 442179 443179
      444179 445177 445176 447175 447174 448172
 0.01 430217 430214 430212 429212 427211 425211 423212 423214
      423215 423217 424219 426219 427219 428218 429217 430217
 0.01 411008 411005 410003 409005 409007 409009 411008
 0.01 408996 406994 406993 405991 403993 405995 405996 406997
      408996
 0.01 393991 392986 391979 387977 384975 382977 379972 375972
      376979 379981 382984 385987 389989 392992 393991
 0.01 388036 387032 386030 382029 379031 378033 377036 375038
      374042 376042 378042 380043 383043 383040 385038 388036
 0.01 382020 381018 381017 379017 378017 378019 379021 381021
      382020
 0.01 368976 368974 368972 368970 366968 364969 364970 363972
      363974 364976 366978 368976
 0.01 322085 322082 321080 320080 319080 318080 316080 314080
      312081 314083 314084 313086 315087 316088 317089 318088
      319088 320087 321086 322085
 0.01 299029 296023 293022 291025 290035 286039 278038 271036
      264032 257029 253030 252034 253043 259057 267068 270070
      274070 278069 280065 282063 283060 287056 292053 295052
      297051 297048 298038 299029
 0.25 473813 471806 469797 463782 460778 454772 452771 448772
      445770 445767 446758 443756 440755 438749 435749 432747
      429744 425746 423749 422757 422766 422775 420782 416798
      415806 414810 415816 430816 434819 438825 443829 446836
      454847 454853 457859 460866 460873 461879 462881 468885
      470883 471878 471867 471856 471845 473839 473829 473813
 0.25 466152 466150 465149 464148 463146 461146 459146 457147
      456150 456152 457154 458155 460157 461158 463156 465154
      465153 466152
 0.25 458175 458172 456172 454175 452177 450179 448182 447184
      448187 449191 452191 453188 455184 456182 457177 458175
 0.25 448204 448202 448199 446198 446199 444200 444201 443203
      442204 441205 440207 438209 437211 437213 439213 440212
      441211 442210 443209 444208 445207 446206 447206 448204
 0.25 446741 447739 446737 446734 445734 444735 443736 442737
      442738 440739 440740 439743 439745 439746 441746 443746
      444744 446742 446741
 0.25 430781 430778 428777 427777 426779 426782 427783 429782
      430781
 0.25 414942 411939 406941 402945 399946 396945 392944 387946
      385948 384945 382939 380935 377928 374916 371902 369887
      367882 364881 362884 362892 364901 365915 367929 366934
      368941 368947 367954 369959 374961 386964 390966 397967
      407972 409966 406962 403958 403954 405952 410947 414942
 0.25 400009 399007 395005 392004 388006 385005 381001 381997
      379995 373993 373996 374998 380001 378006 378011 383013
      388013 392012 395014 398012 400009
 0.25 388050 386049 386050 388050 388050
 0.25 374051 371050 369046 369041 366040 362040 360046 358049
      355049 353046 350046 351042 355041 357039 359035 360032
      360029 358025 360022 364022 368020 369017 360005 360000
      359997 354998 350991 346988 341987 334990 328995 320994
      324990 327989 327987 324983 318977 310976 306975 303973
      301971 301968 303960 306957 307951 307948 305944 303941
      302934 303924 301926 301922 300917 298914 295908 290903
      286900 282902 280906 279910 275916 268921 257930 254937
      250941 246949 243958 243963 245968 247970 251972 253977
      251980 252982 255985 264985 270984 273987 278987 281985
      284987 289987 290982 295983 297985 292000 291007 297010
      301011 304009 306004 308002 320996 321006 322009 320011
      315014 308017 308022 312022 317021 319022 319024 316043
      311048 311051 312055 317060 324063 323066 325067 329069
      333068 335066 345064 350058 358058 363054 369051 374051
 0.25 353735 352729 349727 342723 338722 334724 328730 318744
      310758 301774 297781 293790 292799 290803 287806 277807
      274804 270803 262806 257806 254809 255815 259817 266820
      271825 281827 287827 291829 291834 290842 290849 290855
      293856 296851 300844 303836 307828 311824 314823 320817
      322813 321807 321800 323797 326792 329789 332781 341766
      344757 347749 350741 353735
 0.25 339076 338074 338073 336073 335073 333073 333072 332073
      331075 331076 330077 330079 330080 332080 333079 334079
      336078 338076 339076
 0.25 340052 341050 340047 340046 338045 336044 335044 333044
      331044 330047 330049 331050 331051 332052 334052 336052
      338052 340052 340052
 0.25 326044 324044 326044 326044
 0.25 309988 308985 306984 304984 304985 306987 306989 308989
      309988
 0.25 296885 296880 295878 294876 292873 290871 288873 287877
      286879 285883 285885 285889 287889 289888 293887 295887
      296885
 0.25 297949 296947 296945 296944 294945 294947 294949 294950
      296951 297949
 0.25 292933 292927 292920 290916 286914 284916 283924 282931
      284937 286943 284949 285953 288952 288946 287943 289941
      292935 292933
 0.50 471831 471822 470813 466802 462799 461800 461805 463819
      462832 460838 460847 459853 459857 460859 462861 463865
      463869 464872 467868 467863 465858 467853 468851 468847
      469841 471831
 0.50 446797 447795 447792 445792 444792 442791 440791 439792
      437794 437796 437797 438799 439799 441801 443801 444801
      445800 446798 446797
 0.50 433768 433765 430762 430759 431757 430752 428750 426753
      425758 424760 425765 426767 428770 430772 433771 433768
 0.50 424794 424791 423790 421792 420794 420797 422798 423796
      424794
 0.50 421808 422806 420804 419806 418809 418811 419812 420811
      421809 421808
 0.50 380947 379945 380947 380947
 0.50 367016 365014 363013 361012 360012 358013 358014 358015
      358016 359017 361018 363018 365018 367017 367016
 0.50 349736 348733 345731 341730 336730 332732 329735 325740
      317753 309767 301779 298786 296794 294802 294806 290808
      271810 265809 260807 256809 257813 260815 266817 271822
      280823 287822 290822 292824 296831 298835 300832 301827
      298826 298823 302825 308820 314820 317817 319813 319809
      317806 316800 321794 330781 343752 346744 349736
 0.50 353005 353003 351003 350004 351006 353006 353005
 0.50 351026 349021 345020 343017 344013 345008 344006 340004
      336004 327012 325015 327020 326033 331033 334038 338042
      346042 349037 348034 344034 341037 338032 348027 351026
 0.50 343061 343058 339056 336056 334055 330054 329053 324048
      320046 319048 322050 324050 322052 316054 321057 328058
      336058 341061 343061
 0.50 328066 328065 326065 326066 328066 328066
 0.50 304998 304996 303994 303992 302991 301992 300994 299995
      298996 297998 297000 298002 300004 302005 303004 303002
      303000 304999 304998
 0.50 298842 298840 298838 297836 295837 293838 293839 293841
      293843 292844 292845 292847 292849 292851 293852 293851
      294850 295849 296847 296846 297845 297843 298842
 0.50 299958 299956 297955 296955 295956 294958 296960 297959
      299958
 0.50 298929 299926 299924 298922 297920 295920 295922 295924
      296926 296929 297930 298929
 0.50 296914 296912 295911 295910 293908 292910 292912 293914
      293915 295916 296914
 0.50 294966 287955 284956 279956 277955 276949 277943 277938
      275935 274932 271929 264929 255940 249954 249958 250963
      254968 259972 261974 264974 270978 274977 278978 281978
      282975 286968 288971 290969 294966
 1.00 342744 343739 340737 333741 323751 316763 308774 304780
      301787 299796 301801 312792 317791 323786 327781 331774
      337760 340754 342746 342744
 1.00 312811 312809 311808 310809 311811 312812 312811
 1.00 304814 301812 296811 291811 286811 280813 282814 283817
      285820 290820 294820 297819 301816 304814
 1.00 283968 283967 282966 281965 279965 277965 276965 274965
      272965 271966 272968 274969 275970 277972 278972 279973
      279972 281972 282970 283969 283968
 1.00 277815 275815 271815 269813 268812 264811 262810 260809
      257809 258812 262813 264813 266815 270816 272816 275816
      277815
 1.50 340751 340748 337748 332751 329755 326760 323759 319763
      317767 313770 308778 305782 303787 303790 305792 309789
      320785 324782 326779 331770 335760 340751
 1.50 296817 296815 295815 293814 292814 291813 290813 288813
      286814 286815 286816 286817 286818 286819 288818 290818
      291818 292818 294818 296818 296817
 1.50 281968 279967 278968 279970 281968 281968
 2.00 322778 319777 315778 312778 309780 307782 307784 309786
      310786 312786 313786 316784 318782 319780 322778

$$




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