Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 231848
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
147 PM EST THU FEB 23 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 24/0000 UTC THRU FEB 25/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS---MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES

THERE ARE ONLY SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE NORTHEAST
PUSH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS---INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING AND FAR SOUTHWEST L.P. OF MI BY FRIDAY
EVENING.   STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SUPPORT A WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION
PRECIPITATION BAND.  WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW LIKELY FROM CENTRAL TO
EASTERN NE---FAR SOUTHEAST SD---MOST OF IA SAVE FOR SOUTHEAST
IA---INTO SOUTHEAST MN---MOST OF WI AND INTO THE NORTHERN L.P. OF
MI.  BANDED SNOW LIKELY IN THIS MAX SNOW AXIS---SUPPORTING LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN IA AND FAR
SOUTHEAST MN.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
DETAILS OF THIS HEAVY PRECIP AXIS.  THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN ON THE
NORTHERN END OF THE PRECIP AXIS HAD TRENDED SOUTHWARD.  THE GFS
HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE WESTERN END OF THE PRECIP
AREA AND IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 1200 UTC ECMWF.  FOR
QPF DETAILS A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF--ALONG WITH THE IN
HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS USED.  SEE THE LATEST
QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.  TO THE SOUTH OF
THE HEAVY SNOW AXIS--MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE FROM FAR
NORTHERN  MO-SOUTHEAST IA---INTO NORTHERN IL---FAR SOUTHEAST
WI---FAR NORTHERN IN---FAR NW OH INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN L.P.
OF MI IN A REGION OF LI VALUES 0 TO -4 AND MU-CAPE VALUES 500-1000
J/KG.

NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES

IN THE WAKE OF THE EAST NORTHEAST EJECTING HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY
SYSTEM---ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS/SNOWFALL AFFECTING THE CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WASATCH WITH THESE HEIGHT FALLS.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/FAR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA

A NEW CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO FORM DAY 1 OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AS HEIGHT FALLS DIVE SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE CLOSED UPPER  HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/GULF OF AK
REGION.  LIMITED MOISTURE---PW VALUES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS---WILL
KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP ON THE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SIDE
FROM THE WASHINGTON/OREGON CASCADES---WESTWARD TO THE WA/OREGON
COAST RANGES AND SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 25/00Z
 0.01 492612 498620 504630 509641 512653 514669 515677 514683
      512692 510697 507701 500706 494707 490706 479709 476710
      476707 477700 478695 475692 473693 470696 468699 469701
      470711 471719 473723 475740 477746 478753 479761 481766
      483782 484799 483811 481835 481844 480851 480865 478878
      476888 471913 459925 455928 453932 450943 448949 448956
      447972 446977 446986 445999 446012 448022 449034 450046
      455067 458079 462083 466085 470089 473094 475099 476104
      473110 475113 477114 479118 478123 484130 493135 507143
      514148 519151 522154 533168 537177 536190 535199 532202
      524207 519205 515206 507208 506213 506218 508222 514232
      516235 518241 518246 515249 512253 510251 506249 504249
      503251 501256 502260 505265 505271 506278 504284 502289
      498289 493290 486287 483284 479282 473275 467270 463267
      458265 453263 447263 442262 438263 433263 428262 418259
      412257 409254 403249 400246 398243 395239 397232 399229
      403228 410219 413216 415219 414223 412227 413230 424231
      426230 426228 423224 424219 428220 436219 444215 452215
      457212 460209 464208 469209 473206 477206 484205 487204
      490201 493198 494194 493191 493184 491180 488175 485172
      482168 480166 477165 473162 467160 458164 455167 454170
      452173 448172 434160 432155 431149 428147 426147 423151
      419161 415163 414159 415155 416152 415149 415137 416130
      414128 412129 407126 398124 394123 391126 388128 386133
      381135 378132 375127 373125 375123 377119 386114 391112
      394110 396106 398105 402104 404101 403096 401092 400088
      395087 385086 381084 376085 373083 373077 374071 371068
      367066 363068 358067 359065 368061 373063 379063 382058
      378053 370052 374050 379051 388052 397048 400044 403040
      403036 401033 398030 393023 390013 387004 386998 385994
      385987 386982 387974 388969 392943 395917 397906 399902
      399896 398887 393886 388886 383888 379891 376891 369896
 0.01 369896 360901 352901 348900 346897 346895 349892 362883
      369877 373871 384858 391853 397846 396835 398824 398817
      399812 401804 403792 400789 399786 396768 400758 402749
      403739 406731 411730 413732 417733 419737 421739 423738
      424734 425722 426699 427688 429680 435674 438675 442673
      446663 449655 451651 455651 459652 460658 460661 462662
      463657 466649 467644 466640 466634 469621
 0.01 339682 344684 348688 352695 354701 354709 352716 351724
      348729 343740 340755 338761 335766 328777 324781 321786
      321791 319793 319795 316796 310800 304802 300802 298801
      294797 285789 279778 276773 275769 272770 260776 254777
      251775 246768 244762 236755 232750 234745 236743 239743
      240741 239737
 0.01 484148 485146 483143 482140 480142 477142 475141 471143
      470145 471148 473146 474149 478149 479150 483148 484148
 0.01 396205 391201 386195 383193 380191 373188 366184 362184
      362186 369190 378192 382198 387203 391205 393207 396205
 0.01 363054 361054 359054 357055 357056 359056 361056 363054
      363054
 0.25 500235 500234 499232 498231 497229 497228 496227 495226
      494224 493222 491222 490224 491225 492226 493228 494228
      495229 497230 498232 499235 500235
 0.25 480244 480240 478235 475233 472234 465234 457234 451235
      444237 442239 440241 441244 450245 457245 464244 471245
      478245 480244
 0.25 473810 472799 471791 468783 466776 462770 460768 457767
      450770 449770 447767 445757 444751 444747 446740 447733
      447727 447722 445717 443715 438717 436724 433757 432776
      427781 422782 419817 416834 415842 413849 409864 407879
      407890 409898 410908 409917 406933 406943 405953 404962
      402970 400975 400982 403989 407995 410000 413006 418019
      422023 426023 428021 430014 432006 436989 438971 442956
      459896 462878 463860 464850 465841 469828 471818 473810
 0.25 438779 437778 436778 434780 434783 434785 434787 434790
      435791 435789 435787 436785 436784 437782 437780 438779
 0.25 418116 417114 415114 414114 412113 410113 409112 408112
      407111 406112 405113 403113 402113 403115 403116 404116
      406117 408117 410118 411118 413119 415119 417118 418116
 0.25 403074 403073 402072 401070 399070 398071 397071 396073
      397076 399077 401076 403074 403074
 0.25 258727 260731 260735 259742 265738 271741 277746 282752
      286759 290768 294774 298776 301777 306776 309775 313768
      317761 322756 331743 335736 338727 339720 339715 338709
      334702 329696 322691
 0.50 465814 465806 464799 461790 457786 453786 448787 445790
      441797 438808 434817 430824 424832 422841 415859 412870
      410880 415900 410947 408959 408972 411976 415979 419986
      422989 426990 428987 429981 436961 442941 445932 448920
      449915 449908 449894 449879 449867 454859 457850 462829
      465814
 0.50 267724 268728 270730 274735 283744 289756 293761 299764
      304763 310759 316756 320751 328741 331736 333728 333722
      331714 327708 323704 318700 312699 310698
 1.00 454808 452806 450806 446812 439823 436830 432835 426848
      423855 422862 422869 423874 425881 427882 428886 429893
      426902 423907 419913 418921 416940 414949 414954 415959
      418961 422960 426956 431951 435945 438938 440930 441922
      442914 442902 441894 435880 436872 438865 443859 446854
      452840 453832 454824 453813 454808
 1.00 282714 282718 282721 287726 292732 295739 296745 299747
      305746 309745 311742 312734 316732 316729 314720 309713
      304709 299706 297706
 1.50 436847 435846 434847 433847 432848 432850 432851 434851
      435849 435848 436847
 1.50 435918 435916 435914 435911 434911 433914 432916 431919
      432921 433923 434921 435920 435918
 1.50 433928 433926 433924 432926 431927 431928 431930 430933
      431934 432933 433930 433928

$$





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