Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 011857
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 PM EDT MON JUN 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 02/0000 UTC THRU JUN 03/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO THE TN
VALLEY..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS GULF COAST REGION...

A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW NOW
TRAVERSING THE MID MS VALLEY...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY TO
THE EAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY CLIPPING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE DURING THE
PERIOD...SPLITTING FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS IT REACHES
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z WED.

AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IS AN ANALOG FOR HEAVY... POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS AS THE RRQ UPPER JET
FORCING VIA THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MAINTAINS THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS (I.E. MAINTAINS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
FRONT) WHILE ALSO ENHANCING THE BROAD-SCALE UPPER DIVERGENCE.
THESE FACTORS WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING/STALLING OUT SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW. THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE DYNAMICAL FORCING WITH
THE SLOW-MOVEMENT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH/SURFACE
FRONT...ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE (HIGH
PWS)...WILL SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED...WIDESPREAD...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY CONVECTION/RAINFALL WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY
(THROUGH THIS EVENING) GIVEN A MODERATE DEGREE OF DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT (MUCAPES 2000-3000
J/KG) AND HIGHER CLOUD TOPS. OVERALL...THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT MASS FIELD-WISE AND DECENT AGREEMENT
QPF-WISE...SO FOLLOWED THEM CLOSELY WITH JUST A BIT MORE WEIGHT
GIVEN TO THE HIRES GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY THE WRF-ARW AND ITS
PARALLEL VERSION). A FAIRLY LARGE SWATH OF AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS AXIS (I.E.
THE MID ATLANTIC) GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE/SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. THIS
AS THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS NEARLY PARALLEL AND OF THE SAME
MAGNITUDE OF THE MEAN 850-300 MB FLOW...SUPPORTIVE OF MORE UPWIND
PROPAGATION AND AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CELL TRAINING.


...FL...

SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND RESULTING PERIODIC CONVECTION WILL
RESULT IN MORE ORGANIZED RAINS FOR MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH MANUAL
QPF LEADING TOWARDS THE HIRES GUIDANCE FOR THE FINER DETAILS. ON
TUESDAY...APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INCREASED UPPER
DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE WILL GENERATE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING...ALTHOUGH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/LOWER SURFACE
TEMPS/LOWER DEEP-LAYER CAPE POTENTIAL WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE SHORT
TERM RAINFALL RATES COMPARED TO TODAY.


...PACIFIC NW INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE PACIFIC NW H5 TROF INLAND THIS
PERIOD...WITH SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS REACHING WELL INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMICS/COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THRU THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ENHANCED THRU PARTS OF
EASTERN MT UNDER DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.  MANUAL QPF
GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF REASONABLY AGREEABLE MODEL QPFS.

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 471620 490667 495681 496687 497698 499714 496722 492733
      487741 485746 483752 477763 474766 470766 466765 463762
      454758 444755 435752 425753 416760 411764 410770 408781
      407786 405791 403797 399801 395812 392822 389826 386829
      378837 377840 377844 376848 372853 369856 366861 364868
      365875 365879 366882 369891 368897 365901 362901 358899
      351890 347879 344878 340878 335879 325883 320886 318890
      311896 304902 301903 297902 295897 293890 293883 295876
      295865 293851 293845 292840 289835 286832 281831 275831
      266829 261827 257824 252823 248821 246816 245810 247804
      250800 252798 255797 264797 277795 287794 301792 313792
      326792 332790 337787 342779 345770 373742 381734 387725
      397710 406693 415672 420662 424652 430643 436636 449628
      471620
 0.01 517257 518245 518235 514220 515206 515201 516194 519186
      521172 523162 522157 520153 517146 515142 514137 511123
      507104 503067 501045 502041 503034 503026 505021 513010
      515006 515000 514995 512993 513989 516982 517975 514957
      512951 513945 515934 522924 525917 528913 528907 531899
      531891 527889 521886 516881 509895 505903 503904 494911
      490919 489929 487937 484943 474956 466957 462959 457959
      448959 445966 443971 445974 446978 443978 439976 434977
      430984 430989 431992 435999 434004 431005 427005 424007
      421012 419014 413015 407012 402011 398011 394013 390015
      385019 378022 364027 360029 356029 349026 346026 345028
      342035 338041 336043 333042 327040 324039 322041 319043
      319045 320052 329056 336061 338063 342063 345061 348061
      353060 357060 362061 365063 368063 370061 374056 388061
      397051 401048 404047 408049 414052 424069 429073 431073
      434073 437072 439075 438085 433092 430094 428091 422091
      420093 415097 418104 419107 419111 415116 410131 410135
      407140 403146 402152 404156 408150 419139 427127 431121
      432117 436119 438120 439124 438131 436142 433152 430156
      431164 432168 432171 430173 427176 424177 418182 423187
      426194 426200 423202 418208 416218 408253 412259 414258
      419259 431259 437258 445256 459254 466253 474255 481255
      489257 499267 505270 510268 514262 517257
 0.01 472203 472198 471191 468192 463191 458191 455194 453199
      451205 450209 453212 458212 461210 465209 469208 471205
      472203
 0.25 507240 508235 507232 505231 499230 502206 506201 510190
      511185 511178 510165 506146 503119 501109 499098 496088
      495076 494064 493054 493038 496026 500016 501011 502003
      500993 500983 502967 503957 502950 500945 497944 493947
      488953 483962 474975 472981 469984 465989 460999 456008
      454012 454016 458023 460036 461042 463047 470053 469058
      469065 468071 467078 464082 459090 456102 452112 451115
      451121 451134 450140 448143 445147 444153 448162 448174
      447179 448184 452184 455181 461176 463173 467171 471171
      475172 479175 481180 482187 480193 478200 479206 477211
      474215 459217 452218 444217 436218 431220 428225 428232
      430235 434237 439236 442235 445236 448241 453240 458236
      459233 462231 469225 472223 477225 478230 476236 475241
      478244 483246 487246 493243 507240
 0.25 484712 484705 483698 480688 472665 467654 463645 458639
      455637 451637 446639 442642 437648 427664 417681 410695
      402711 393728 385743 380749 373755 362766 356772 349780
      340792 334798 325801 314803 310803 307801 302800 296801
      286802 282802 280805 280809 281812 283814 284816 279815
      271814 267816 268821 274825 284825 292824 298828 301830
      304834 309843 310846 311852 309860 309866 310870 313870
      315868 318864 324858 338849 345843 350839 355837 359839
      363840 366837 377821 382817 386810 396793 402778 409759
      413750 417742 423736 429731 433730 437731 443734 450740
      457744 463747 466747 468744 474736 479727 482720 484712
 0.25 442995 442993 442990 441989 440988 438989 437990 437992
      438995 439997 441997 442995
 0.25 393032 394029 393027 393026 391025 389025 388026 386027
      386028 385029 386030 386031 387033 389033 391033 393032
      393032
 0.25 266810 264809 262809 260809 260811 262812 264812 266811
      266810
 0.50 508177 500123 497111 495105 491100 489095 487089 488071
      488056 489037 493025 495020 496010 494980 494972 491966
      488968 485972 481976 479980 477988 474994 466000 465005
      461011 461017 463021 465035 466043 471045 473051 473059
      473068 474073 478078 480079 482082 482086 481088 476087
      471084 466087 465094 464101 465109 468114 469121 467128
      465142 460154 456156 453163 453171 455168 457164 459162
      463162 483172 490183 495179 500180 504183 506183 507180
      508177
 0.50 493196 494194 494192 493191 492189 492188 490189 488190
      486192 486194 486197 487198 489198 491198 493197 493196
 0.50 476702 475696 474692 470686 466680 464670 464662 462653
      457645 451642 446643 442647 436654 432660 418686 392736
      387750 382756 377761 371763 367766 365771 359778 341799
      340801 336803 328805 320808 319809 318813 319815 318818
      313821 307821 305818 301818 311825 316829 324828 327829
      328833 328841 331845 333846 340841 344837 349831 360825
      366825 370821 380809 395786 406758 408751 412744 420733
      429724 434720 441715 445713 448714 452718 458722 462721
      464718 473711 476702
 1.00 498154 499148 498144 496135 494125 492117 489114 487114
      483120 480130 475134 476137 479136 482138 484141 488149
      492155 495157 497156 498154
 1.00 484161 483160 482159 480159 478158 477159 476159 475161
      476163 478164 479164 481164 482163 483162 484161
 1.00 483057 484050 484042 484035 484029 483024 480023 478024
      476029 476032 478037 480042 480047 480054 481062 482060
      483057
 1.00 477106 477102 475099 474096 474093 472091 469090 468093
      467095 467100 467102 468105 471108 473109 475109 477106
 1.00 455668 455657 453653 451651 444653 439658 435663 431670
      426681 419695 413706 400730 398737 395745 390757 383768
      380775 381779 384778 389774 393768 400756 406745 414734
      422723 430713 435708 439702 446691 448685 449681 451678
      454673 455668
 1.00 371806 372804 370802 370804 370806 371806 371806
 1.50 492142 492141 491140 490138 489139 488139 489139 490142
      492144 492142
 1.50 445668 444666 443666 441667 440667 439668 438669 437671
      437672 437673 437674 439674 440673 442672 443671 444671
      445668
 1.50 431699 430693 426694 421699 417706 414713 410721 408728
      408732 409735 413731 417725 421718 425713 429705 431699

$$




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