Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 290700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT WED MAR 29 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 29/1200 UTC THRU MAR 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...S-CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-LOWER MS VALLEY...

AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION/RAINFALL AREA ONGOING ACROSS THE
S-CENTRAL US AS A 50+KT LLJ PUMPS PWS UPWARDS OF 1.25-1.5" UP
THROUGH THE PLAINS THAT ARE UPWARDS OF 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT A CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL PERSIST WED INTO
THU AS A MAIN CLOSED TROUGH LOW AND SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM
STEADILY TRACKS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. WAVY
LEAD CONVECTIVE MESO BOUNDARIES WILL SET NEW LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FOCI TO REFORM CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. COMMA SHAPED WRAPPED
HEAVIER PCPN ENHANCED BY DEFORMATION TO THE NORTH OF THE CLOSED
LOW...HEIGHT FALLS/INSTABILITY AS PER SPC...AND LEAD THETAE
ADVECTIONS AND EMBEDDED MCVS NOW ON RADAR OVER TX/OK/KS WILL
OVERALL LIKEWISE SHIFT NEWD AND EWD...FURTHER AIDED BY CONVECTIVE
COLD POOL TRANSLATION AND RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH
DAY 1. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A WRAP-AROUND/PIVOT AXIS OF SOME 1" TO
SPOTTY 3" RAIN AMOUNTS FROM W-CENTRAL KS NEWD INTO IA/NRN MO AND
AN AXIS OF MORE UNCERTAIN TO TIME/PROGRESS STRONG CONVECTION FROM
ERN KS/OK/TX INTO THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY WED INTO THU. SOME
ELEMENTS MAY MERGE/TRAIN WITHIN THIS MORE N-S ORIENTED AXIS
ALIGNED WITH A CONTINUED POTENT FLOW OF LLJ ENHANCED MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SOME LOCAL 2-4" TOTALS THAT MAY OFFER ADDITIONAL FOCUS
WITH TERRAIN.

...NWRN US...

GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED REASONABLY CONSISTENT OVERALL WITH MASS
FIELDS AND INDICATIONS THAT LEAD IMPULSES RIDING ALOFT OVER AN
ENHANCED PLUME OF ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVIER PCPN SPREAD INLAND FROM THE PAC NW TO THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES TODAY. AN 50+ KT WSWRLY LLJ WILL FEED A
PLUME UPWARDS OF 1.25" PWS INTO THE WA/OR/NWRN CA COASTLINE AND
LATEST STLT PASSES SHOW SOME EMBEDDED .25"/HOUR RAINFALL RATES
WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE IN THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WITH
LONG FETCH CONNECTION WELL BACK TO THE NORTH OF HAWAII. THIS MAY
TRANSLATE TO SOME LOCALLY TERRAIN ENHANCED LIQUID AMOUNTS WED OF
1-3+ OVER COASTAL RANGES INLAND TO THE CASCADES AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE BLUE...SAWTOOTH...AND BITTEROOT RANGES. EXPECT HIGHER
ELEVATION HEAVY SNOWS AS PER LATEST PRODUCTS FROM THE WPC WINTER
WEATHER DESK. HEIGHT FALLS WITH STRONGER EPAC SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACH ARE EXPECTED TO SWEEP INTO THE PAC NW LATER WED INTO
THU...PROVIDING STRONG DYNAMICS AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE CUTS OFF/SHIFTS SEWD.

SCHICHTEL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 487614 492625 494637 494643 494648 493651 491662 488670
      488675 489677 488680 489686 488691 484703 480713 478716
      474718 464721 461724 458730 454740 452750 446756 443760
      440765 435773 433782 431771 434761 436751 436746 437741
      439736 443734 442730 436730 430731 428729 430726 435724
      438721 440720 439717 437714 440710 447704 451703 455700
      457695 460693 466692 469690 469686 470680 468676 464676
      459677 450678 446677 441679 427675 422673 419669 417665
      417659 418651 420645 425638 430634
 0.01 537215 538209 539202 538194 536187 533179 526166 520160
      515155 497135 491130 488127 483126 478124 472124 467120
      460118 455118 450113 448106 446104 442102 438102 435103
      431104 428107 426115 425124 425132 422141 419148 416154
      413158 411159 408162 406168 404177 404184 405187 406192
      405197 403202 400203 395201 392201 389203 392211 397216
      399219 398224 394228 390231 387236 387245 390253 394259
      396263 396268 396272 398274 406277 409278 411276 414277
      417275 439258 444255 449253 462255 470257 475262 486274
      494286 501289 506287 511284 515280 520272 522259 521248
      519241 517234 514227 512224 513220 515217 519218 523220
      526224 529226 531225 534221 537215
 0.01 544936 545927 544922 542917 541916 537914 534912 529912
      523912 520915 505926 499931 496931 494934 492939 484959
      481969 479980 484980 486981 485984 485990 489990 497986
      505982 512976 519970 525963 530953 536948 540944 542940
      544936
 0.01 454925 454911 454899 453886 453880 451877 446870 440865
      437862 433860 429859 424860 419865 412870 407875 401879
      392880 387880 384879 373879 361880 352883 347886 334894
      327897 323899 318900 314902 309902 299905 291908 286913
      282918 281922 280928 279937 278944 276947 271954 268958
      269960 270963 267966 261970 259974 260978 264980 275982
      284982 294979 301976 317972 334969 338968 340969 341971
      342977 342981 341984 336002 338006 337012 334019 333029
      332032 334035 333039 330044 327045 322046 320048 321052
      327057 330056 334058 337061 338064 342070 347065 349060
      350058 353058 359055 377052 383051 386050 392046 404038
      409033 412024 414019 415014 417008 417001 418994 420990
      424984 428978 432970 440952 444945 449937 452932 454925
 0.01 365818 365813 362813 361814 358817 356818 354821 352823
      352826 351828 353829 354827 357826 360824 361822 363820
      365818
 0.01 319843 319838 317832 315828 314822 313818 310814 308814
      308820 309827 311831 313835 315839 317841 319843
 0.25 531208 530200 528194 527188 525182 523179 522176 519172
      515171 513167 508162 499156 495144 491138 486133 481131
      474129 469132 466135 460135 455136 450139 444140 442141
      439139 436138 434140 431152 430160 428166 427174 425181
      421200 418206 416214 414220 413224 411226 403234 402239
      402242 405248 412257 416261 421262 429255 435252 440250
      446248 451247 460247 467248 473251 479255 484260 491268
      499278 504277 508272 512267 516264 516257 513242 503217
      498205 498201 499198 503195 508195 512198 521209 527212
      531208
 0.25 493196 491191 489185 486182 483180 478178 473178 467183
      464185 463188 459196 456199 455202 456205 462208 468207
      476205 480203 482201 485198 489197 493196
 0.25 485230 484226 481224 477224 474224 472225 470226 468227
      465229 464229 468231 470230 472228 475227 477226 480228
      482230 483232 485230
 0.25 461230 459229 458229 456229 457230 459230 461230
 0.25 452636 452632 450630 444630 439633 435638 432643 430651
      432654 437654 444652 449648 451643 452636
 0.25 449209 450207 449205 447205 445204 444204 442203 440203
      439203 437203 435203 434205 434208 434210 434211 436211
      437211 439212 441212 442212 443212 444211 446211 448210
      449209
 0.25 442918 442907 441900 439891 436885 431882 425885 421890
      415896 410899 405902 398902 392900 380897 373895 363894
      350897 337902 323908 312912 298914 292917 288922 287929
      290937 289947 290954 285958 281963 279968 279970 283972
      291971 298970 312966 326963 339961 347960 354961 359964
      363969 363975 363980 361986 355997 347006 347015 345022
      343028 346033 348039 351041 355041 361039 368039 373039
      378035 384021 392011 402002 410993 417981 423969 435942
      440930 442918
 0.50 512255 511246 509240 504226 501219 498212 496209 492207
      485206 462212 456213 450214 437215 431214 425215 420221
      417227 411230 407234 405238 406243 410249 414253 417255
      421256 426254 431251 437248 442246 450244 455244 461244
      468245 477248 480249 483252 491262 496268 498271 501274
      504270 507264 512255
 0.50 494241 493235 490229 488226 483222 477221 472222 464226
      454227 446231 448233 450232 455232 466233 470233 475230
      480233 482239 487239 494241
 0.50 492171 488164 485156 483152 479152 475152 473149 467144
      462143 459143 453147 444147 437149 435153 435160 437168
      443174 444178 443182 442185 443188 445191 448193 452194
      458188 463183 467174 474172 483174 489174 492171
 0.50 478139 478137 477136 476136 474135 473136 472137 471138
      472139 473140 475141 477140 478139
 0.50 435926 436915 435906 434899 430893 427893 422898 417903
      412906 406910 401912 394912 389909 379903 373900 366898
      359898 354899 342903 331908 319915 313918 308918 301918
      294920 294945 296948 299950 301954 292958 286961 284966
      288967 292967 299965 310962 323959 330958 339957 354957
      362958 366960 370963 372970 371979 369984 362998 356007
      353014 351020 351024 352027 355028 360028 366027 373025
      381017 390009 399999 406989 413979 419968 431942 433935
      435926
 1.00 495220 493214 488211 481210 477210 469215 465217 459217
      451219 440218 430219 425220 422224 425228 428232 429235
      427235 422234 416232 411233 409236 410240 413244 416248
      422249 428248 431246 436232 444228 453223 462224 471219
      475218 481219 491221 495220
 1.00 478241 479238 478236 477235 476234 474234 473234 472236
      472238 473239 473240 475241 477241 478241 478241
 1.00 465237 464236 460235 458235 455235 453236 450236 448237
      446238 447240 451241 454241 456241 459240 461240 464239
      465237
 1.00 475161 475159 473156 470153 469152 465151 464152 461153
      460158 463160 464161 467165 468165 471164 473163 475161
 1.00 461181 462176 460173 457168 456161 451158 446154 443154
      441156 441161 443164 447167 450169 451173 452181 455185
      459183 461181
 1.00 426938 427929 427921 427913 424908 421908 420910 416913
      415917 412922 401922 397922 391922 387925 383927 384922
      380916 373910 369908 364907 358907 352907 339910 308935
      315941 320941 326941 337940 352940 373943 373946 370947
      362946 360946 357948 356949 359950 369954 377960 379965
      381972 385975 388979 388983 386985 384988 377995 370003
      367007 366012 367014 372014 376011 383006 390999 397988
      408972 415961 421952 424945 426938
 1.00 355947 354947 352947 351947 352948 354948 355947
 1.50 488218 488216 487215 485214 484213 482213 480213 479213
      478215 478216 480217 482218 483218 485218 487218 488218
 1.50 445223 443222 440221 437221 434221 431221 429221 426222
      425225 426226 430228 433229 437228 439227 440226 443225
      445223
 1.50 427242 426240 426239 424239 423238 421237 419236 418235
      416235 414235 413236 413238 414239 415241 417243 418243
      420244 422244 423245 425244 426244 427242 427242
 1.50 410947 409947 407947 406947 405948 405949 405952 407951
      408949 409949 410947
 1.50 400940 401938 401936 400934 400933 398932 397931 396931
      395932 394933 394936 394938 395940 396941 398942 400941
      400940
 1.50 372918 371916 367916 364917 362916 356913 349912 344913
      337916 328925 319932 318930 316931 316933 317935 320937
      323938 330937 338935 346936 361937 365937 367935 366930
      364927 371920 372918
 1.50 349925 348925 346925 344925 344926 346926 348925 349925
 2.00 437226 436224 434224 432223 430223 429223 430225 432225
      433226 435226 437226
 2.00 363932 361931 359929 355928 352928 348929 344929 341930
      344931 348931 352932 355932 359930 361932 363932
 2.00 335932 334932 332931 330931 328931 326932 325932 326934
      328933 330933 332933 334932 335932
 2.00 326934 325933 323934 323935 325935 326934

$$




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