Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 231830
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 24/0000 UTC THRU JUL 25/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...UPR MS VALLEY/GT LAKES/MIDWEST SWWD INTO THE CNTL PLAINS...

MODELS SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED EWD PROGRESSION OF
LOW AMPLITUDE UPR TROF ALONG THE CNTL U.S./CANADIAN BORDER THIS PD
WITH ASSOCD PAC COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO
THE CNTL GT LAKES BY SUN EVENING.  BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS PD IS
WITH HANDLING OF ONGOING MCS THAT SHOULD BE WORKING EWD AHEAD OF
LIFTING WARM FRONTAL BNDRY ACRS PARTS OF THE WRN GT LAKES REGION
AND EVENTUAL REDEVELOPMENT ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF TRAILING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.  WHILE TYPICALLY WOULD EXPECT
HI RES CAM GUIDANCE TO DO A BETTER JOB RESOLVING CONVECTIVE
DETAILS...EVEN THESE MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND LACK OF
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS.
OVERALL CHANGES FROM CONTINUITY WERE TO SPEED UP EWD PROGRESSION
OF PCPN ASSOCD WITH ONGOING MCS ACRS THE UPR MS VALLEY/WRN GT
LAKES WITH HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO OCCUR INVOF TRACK OF
DVLPG MCV ACRS ERN MN INTO CNTL WI..WHILE A SECONDARY MAX IS
EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH ACRS SE WI INTO NRN IL/LOWER MI WITH
ONE/TWO PUNCH OF SRN EDGE OF MCS OUTFLOW...AND SECONDARY LINE OF
CONVECTION WITH COLD FRONT LATER SAT NIGHT.  COMBINATION OF HRRR
GUIDANCE AND WRF ARW/NSSL WRF WERE GENLY FAVORED.  ACRS THE CNTL
PLAINS...SCTD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WLYS THROUGH
KS/SRN CO WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING EWD OVER TOP OF FLATTENING
UPR RIDGE INTO THE CNTL PLAINS HELPING TO AID DEVELOPMENT.  DEEPER
MSTR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE BNDRY TOWARD THE
MIDWEST/MID MS VALLEY..AND THUS AREAL AVG AMOUNTS FROM ERN CO INTO
KS SHOULD REMAIN LOW..THOUGH PER HI RES MODEL LOCALIZED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH IN SOME OF THE STGR DISCREET CELLS.


...SOUTHWEST/ROCKIES...

SCTD CONVECTION AGAIN LIKELY TO DVLP MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING
ACRS THIS REGION THOUGH UPPER FORCING REMAINS WEAK AT BEST.  WELL
DEFINED MCV NOTED IN VIS IMAGERY OVER NRN BAJA APPEAR TO BE
HEADING DUE WEST AND LIKELY NOT MUCH OF A PLAYER BUT COULD HELP
DRAW SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MSTR INTO PARTS OF SRN AZ.  OTHERWISE
WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINING WEAK HERE, CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY MESOSCALE DRIVEN AIDED BY TOPOGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES.  STAYED CLOSE TO CONTINUITY WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND
THERE.



...SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST/FL...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE SE/FL THIS PD WITH AREA OF
HIGH PWS..AT OR ABOVE 2"..UNDER UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL
U.S.  WELL DEFINED MCV OVER NRN MS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SWWD THIS
PD TOWARD SRN AR AND MAY HELP FOCUS HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG ITS
TRACK.  OTHERWISE SEA BREEZE CONFERENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
WILL BE MAIN TRIGGERS/FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.  ACROSS FL, WEAK UPR
LOW DVLPG NEAR THE BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WWD ACRS THE STATE
AND COULD HELP TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY SUN AFT ACRS THE CNTL/SRN
PORTION OF THE STATE.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 25/00Z
 0.01 559963 553940 549936 546932 544927 541914 537904 533896
      532892 531885 531877 531873 529871 525862 522850 520834
      519828 516822 510814 497796 484786 479782 471779 464776
      457773 453772 449772 438774 428788 422798 419808 412831
      409841 407847 406850 404852 395850 392849 387846 382840
      379836 378830 395798 396793 395791 392791 390790 389787
      392778 391771 394766 395753 393738 390725 390718 390714
      388712 385709 382711 376719 373723 372727 370736 369746
      369759 364760 363765 364769 368773 370777 372783 373790
      373798 372804 370809 368813 359821 354826 348833 344838
      343842 336862 334870 329872 325868 319860 315854 312850
      309848 306841 303837 300834 298831 304829 307827 312826
      320821 325815 331807 338799 343795 346790 349782 352778
      352773 347773 344774 343772 346770 348766 352760 358754
      360750 358746 355743 352745 347754 343765 338773 335777
      330780 321786 315791 308797 302804 298811 302816 286811
      277802 264793 259791 253790 249794 246798 238804 234807
      232811 233817 234820 240827 245833 250833 252835 253838
      257846 260848 264850 268852 269856 273865 275874 276888
      274892 274896 275902 276906 277910 279915 283923 286928
      284934 281945 279955 280961 282966 285968 290967 299963
      306958 312952 319949 323950 328951 337953 347952 355949
      361943 367937 373930 377922 378913 367909 369905 369899
      368885 367879 366874 371867 375856 380855 383857 389863
      394870 396874 397878 394887 392899 392904 391911 390925
      388938 385950 378971 374980 369990 365998 359005
 0.01 359005 352014 349017 348020 352024 354026 353029 349040
      344043 340047 330053 327054 324056 325059 329061 332062
      333065 331066 325063 323065 324068 332069 332073 331077
      328081 324085 327089 327097 323096 322093 321086 308083
      305076 300071 295067 288066 282063 279062 277059 274056
      271050 268046 265043 256036 252032 245031 237031 235032
      233035 228048 230054 230059 234070 237075 241078 258092
      268100 277107 287115 292118 299121 304123 311123 317124
      321120 329112 333109 336109 338111 342116 343122 347127
      352131 360133 365129 365122 361118 355115 351111 347107
      346101 348094 353091 356091 358094 359097 358100 364110
      365115 369110 371105 370102 365098 373093 368089 360088
      359082 358078 360076 361072 363070 366070 369072 372077
      375082 381084 384083 384080 384076 385074 387076 389077
      390075 392073 394074 397076 401074 403071 403067 398069
      396070 395066 398060 401059 404059 405061 407059 409056
      408054 404053 401053 400050 403046 408041 412038 410037
      408036 407033 409031 409028 407023 408018 408008 415996
      419992 424987 431979 440974 449969 456965 464964 466963
      471963 479962 483966 486972 492982 499994 504005 507010
      509017 512023 518023 525023 527023 530019 532013 536007
      543995 547992 551986 555983 557977 559963
 0.01 510128 510123 509120 508111 505104 502098 498092 495086
      493083 490082 486075 481060 477059 475063 474066 475074
      478076 478082 479090 477094 476099 480104 484110 486117
      488121 490123 497124 503129 507131 510128
 0.01 471658 470653 468648 462641 456635 450630 446630 443634
      442645 439653 446651 452654 455657 458662 460664 465663
      470661 471658
 0.01 459694 456691 453692 452694 450699 448706 447712 446715
      443713 439714 434717 431720 431723 433724 439722 442724
      441728 440733 440739 444737 447732 454723 457712 459699
      459694
 0.01 453100 454098 454095 453095 452093 452092 450090 448092
      448094 448095 449097 449100 450100 451101 453101 453100
 0.01 442041 442034 441028 437019 434009 431001 428999 424001
      420008 418013 418020 423025 429032 431035 433042 434045
      438043 442041
 0.01 422961 422952 422942 421939 419941 417942 416947 416951
      414954 410958 409966 411973 411977 413977 416972 419966
      422961
 0.25 534931 534927 533923 529918 526912 523905 520896 518889
      516882 518881 521883 523884 523880 522876 520874 514873
      509868 505863 502863 490858 484857 480858 478860 480864
      484869 491880 493892 492898 492904 492915 494924 492922
      488921 486924 485927 485932 484938 487945 492950 497954
      503956 509954 515949 519951 523955 526956 529955 533949
      534938 534931
 0.25 479815 479809 479804 478800 475798 472800 470802 469805
      468809 469811 471815 473817 475818 478817 479815
 0.25 475895 475886 473882 467876 466873 468867 468862 467858
      464854 459846 456843 454840 455837 455830 453826 449822
      444822 440823 437822 433820 435816 440806 440802 438800
      434802 429811 425820 416842 413851 409860 407873 407880
      408887 410893 412897 413903 414909 413923 410935 410939
      411941 414937 417928 420923 424920 428917 433919 438926
      439933 437939 435952 433959 432966 434968 437967 440964
      447959 454952 460942 461936 459932 452928 450925 455922
      465918 470916 472914 473910 474901 475895
 0.25 399993 398993 396995 395997 393000 391002 389004 388006
      390008 393007 395004 397002 398000 399995 399993
 0.25 397959 395954 390956 387961 384968 383974 381981 380985
      382987 383986 386981 389976 393970 395965 397959
 0.25 348912 348901 348894 345891 338889 329893 322895 318896
      316893 312888 305884 303880 301880 301893 300903 300914
      299924 299929 300933 303935 307935 314935 332938 338934
      343927 344923 347921 348912
 0.25 313107 313103 311098 304091 299086 294082 290080 285079
      281076 274071 269064 265060 261059 251060 242056 238055
      237059 240068 246074 253080 267091 275096 283102 290106
      300110 309112 313107
 0.25 303867 303861 302855 298846 292839 284833 281831 279827
      285821 279817 272810 267803 255801 252801 250804 245813
      247817 250819 258824 265829 271836 277842 283850 287858
      293866 299872 302870 303867
 0.50 514913 515910 514908 513905 513904 513903 511900 510900
      510903 510905 510906 510908 510910 510911 512913 513914
      514913
 0.50 467900 467891 466885 459875 456870 454864 453858 449851
      444842 442838 440832 436832 432835 423843 421847 419853
      414863 412869 412875 415881 417889 418897 417905 417911
      416916 417920 424913 429909 433909 437913 440918 442922
      447926 451916 455911 460908 465905 467900
 0.50 456940 456937 454936 450938 447940 443943 441947 439952
      437957 438960 440961 443959 447956 450953 452949 454945
      456940
 0.50 343915 344905 344900 342897 338896 334896 329901 326906
      321910 314909 312901 310898 307898 306900 304905 304912
      304921 305924 308925 313920 321928 324932 329934 335932
      337923 341919 343915
 0.50 299101 292090 289084 282082 270075 267071 264069 260070
      257069 251067 247067 245065 245066 254073 261076 264081
      268086 273090 278093 285096 292098 293101 297102 299101
 0.50 293851 293849 292847 291845 290844 289843 288843 287845
      287848 288850 289850 290851 291852 293852 293851
 0.50 275820 273816 269813 267810 263807 260806 256808 256811
      259815 261821 263823 269824 270824 274821 275820
 1.00 456893 456886 452880 444872 445866 443865 442861 441856
      440856 435859 428869 425872 421879 423893 423897 425898
      431896 437897 441900 443906 446903 450899 455896 456893
 1.00 428860 427858 426858 424860 426861 427860 428860
 1.00 337910 338908 337906 337905 336904 335903 334904 333905
      332906 332908 333911 335912 337911 337910
 1.50 433878 434876 433875 432874 431876 430878 429881 428881
      427883 427885 427886 427888 429888 430886 431885 432884
      433883 433880 433878 433878

$$




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