Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 291834
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
233 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 30/0000 UTC THRU JUL 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

WEST COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...

MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE OVERNIGHT AND RETURN AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MOSTLY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN.  GIVEN WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING...THE FORCING WILL BE
LARGELY A RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...WITH THE SCALE OF THE
CONVECTION LIKELY TOO SMALL TO RESOLVE BY THE COURSER GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS.  THUS...MODEL QPFS ARE JUST A ROUGH ESTIMATE OF THE
CONVECTION`S LOCATION AS WELL AS AMOUNTS.  RELIED INSTEAD ON SOME
HI-RES GUIDANCE AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED AREAS GIVEN
ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS.

GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST/OH-TN VALLEY/APPALACHIANS...

PERTURBATIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND AND FORM
WITHIN THE BROAD AND MOIST UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN
VICINITY OF THE TROUGHS.  MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LARGE SPREAD DUE TO
THE CHARACTERISTICALLY MOIST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...PERIODICALLY
CONVECTIVELY-UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...AND CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE
BREEZES AND OTHER ZONES OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.
THUS...CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF THE
AMOUNTS IS BELOW AVERAGE.  THUS...
RATHER THAN RELYING UPON A SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION...A COMBINATION
OF GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH THE FINAL FORECAST AMOUNTS CLOSEST TO
THE 12Z GFS...BUT SOMETIMES THE 00Z ECMWF AND OCCASIONALLY THE 12Z
NAM...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SO WAS NOT USED AT THIS TIME.

GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PERIODICALLY IN
VICINITY OF THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER AS WELL AS SEA BREEZES ACROSS
FLORIDA AND TEXAS.  THE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR WITHIN A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WITH PW VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY.  USED A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS
12Z/00Z ECMWF/12Z NAM CONUS NEST TO DERIVE THE AMOUNTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE WETTER 00Z ECMWF PREFERRED ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS
VERSUS THE DRIER NAM/GFS WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM CONUS NEST
AND GEM REGIONAL.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

JAMES

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 532198 534190 533183 532176 532167 525146 523141 520138
      517135 513133 499135 497130 500126 506118 510106 510102
      512102 515103 523108 526111 529111 534109 537105 539102
      541094 542089 541082 538069 533058 529050 525039 521031
      516023 511016 505008 498000 485988 479982 475982 473984
      470987 467991 467996 465001 463004 460005 457005 451003
      448000 445997 439997 439002 441006 447015 450019 454022
      454025 455029 454032 448036 439040 439048 438051 435052
      432054 432059 435070 437074 442075 448081 453081 451077
      451063 454059 459057 464058 469056 474057 480058 486064
      489068 490075 483079 479081 476084 473087 469089 462096
      458098 453095 446088 440083 434082 430083 426085 423088
      420099 419106 421109 423112 426113 427115 433117 437119
      440120 442122 440129 436138 435144 437150 439154 442157
      446160 450161 455162 458161 461160 466158 471159 476162
      483169 489176 494184 500191 515201 527207 530202 532198
 0.01 533744 532739 530731 526721 524713 521710 513706 504709
      499711 495714 488721 482728 479730 476729 469723 462720
      451722 440723 435729 431737 425743 418748 406752 398757
      393759 390763 378780 372785 367792 360800 355807 343818
      340820 334821 330823 326821 319819 312814 308812 307808
      314801 321795 328788 342773 352761 358754 362746 367739
      371733 382717 386710 389698 392690 393684 391676 391672
      389670 384670 374671 370672 369674 366677 360684 355691
      349698 338711 326724 314737 302749 290763 275775 268780
      262787 257795 258798 256802 252804 251808 252810 255812
      269819 270825 269827 275834 281842 286850 288860 289875
      287900 292924 292936 292943 290945 288945 283947 276947
      270947 267948 259950 250953 243958 241961 239965 238971
      240975 239980 238983 238989 239994 240001 244003 260013
      281018 286019 290018 294017 295012 295009 297006 300003
      306996 311001 315992 317986 317980 318969 319964 321962
      327956 329954 331953 332956 332960 330964 330970 329999
      327005 327011 323022 323027 324031 328033 330032 334024
      338015 342990 343984 344980 345966 346962 347956 347951
      350947 352945 354941 350929 350922 351915 355905 359897
      360892 363887 365882 368879 377877 388886 394892 392900
      392906 396911 401918 405920 408924 416929 422935 425938
      432939 436941 442941 447942 450941 459922 462917 465915
      472911 477910 480908 482907 483904 484899 488888 491879
      494868 498859 506839 509830 513822
 0.01 513822 516817 518814 520808 522805 524799 526794 528791
      530785 532782 532774 532768 532760 533755 533747 533744
 0.01 516267 517260 516256 513249 504235 501227 500217 497210
      494208 491209 484210 477212 471213 468215 468218 470221
      473219 480219 488222 492227 496236 500243 506257 511264
      513267 516267
 0.01 504276 504265 498256 494249 492243 489240 484238 480236
      478233 474233 472238 472241 475245 479247 487253 492260
      496268 501277 504276
 0.01 453176 453174 453171 451170 451171 451173 451175 451176
      452176 453176
 0.01 458835 456825 453818 446820 441825 436832 433838 431840
      426841 422843 424846 430849 439849 447846 452842 457837
      458835
 0.01 424134 424129 422131 418135 415144 411144 407142 404141
      401143 397142 395140 388139 386142 385147 388153 390157
      389160 386162 384166 384171 386174 391176 394175 397171
      405158 407156 410157 410163 412164 418162 420160 421154
      422148 422142 422137 424134
 0.01 419980 417975 416970 414968 412963 409961 409966 410970
      412975 412982 410986 412987 415987 417982 419980
 0.01 410110 412106 412102 410096 408091 406093 404099 400104
      393107 382110 377119 374124 375127 376130 379126 386119
      394114 399112 405112 410110
 0.01 413071 414064 413059 409056 405055 395053 388049 381046
      373047 370044 369039 368033 368030 365018 363016 358016
      354018 352022 350030 351039 351044 349046 345048 343052
      341054 338054 333051 329051 320052 320055 317058 319063
      323062 328063 338064 347067 350075 349077 347078 343080
      336074 330074 327076 323083 325090 328097 323096 321091
      317086 313086 310088 303082 293080 285077 280071 275066
      268062 261059 256059 253061 251065 250071 253079 259084
      266088 271093 285102 311122 321124 324122 329123 335124
      337127 342133 346140 355146 363148 365152 362154 359156
      359158 362159 364157 369156 373145 375141 374138 367132
      368128 368123 362117 356113 353110 352105 351100 351093
      355086 361080 364079 367079 370083 374091 377091 379088
      383079 385077 387077 389080 391082 394079 397076 401076
      403074 403070 405066 407068 413071
 0.01 391202 390197 386191 382187 377183 372180 365178 361179
      359180 361184 366188 371191 376194 380198 385202 391202
 0.01 402929 400924 396920 392915 387911 383909 382909 382913
      384920 386925 389931 393933 400933 402929
 0.01 354155 354153 352152 350152 350154 350155 352155 354155
      354155
 0.01 345178 345171 345167 343166 336165 334166 331164 326161
      322158 315157 316160 318162 321163 327166 334167 339171
      342176 343178 345178
 0.01 311043 310039 308038 305030 299027 296028 292027 287024
      283024 281026 282034 287039 293044 300045 309045 311043
 0.01 311988 311986 311983 311981 311979 311977 311975 312973
      312971 310969 309971 308973 308975 308977 308979 308981
      308983 308985 308988 310990 311988
 0.25 526180 528175 527170 524165 520159 517156 512152 507148
      503148 502152 504154 508159 512163 516167 520172 521179
      524181 526180
 0.25 520191 522189 521186 520185 519183 518182 516182 514184
      515186 516187 517189 518191 520191 520191
 0.25 525757 523743 522737 520733 513732 509733 506736 496750
      489767 484785 481794 480804 475826 474834 469842 465850
      461857 456863 450869 444873 438879 437882 439884 441886
      451886 459887 464887 468885 473880 477872 480863 483853
      484843 484831 485824 486819 489810 493803 498803 502801
      508795 512788 517782 521773 524765 525757
 0.25 523076 523070 520065 516057 511049 507042 501035 495034
      491035 490041 490048 495056 499062 506068 513074 520079
      523076
 0.25 462758 462753 460748 457741 452738 449737 446739 435744
      430747 426753 404762 401767 398773 399780 401786 391793
      382801 374809 370814 368816 365817 362816 360817 354821
      351826 349832 348840 345846 343851 340856 335861 330864
      325868 321872 319879 321885 324889 326896 325903 325913
      325922 325927 327930 330935 334939 337939 339938 342932
      343900 345894 348889 355879 382838 399819 404815 410814
      417812 423813 430812 435809 439803 442797 448785 451780
      454775 457771 459766 462758
 0.25 452102 451102 450100 450099 448099 446098 445098 443097
      441096 439098 438100 438103 439104 440105 440106 442107
      444108 445108 447108 449108 450107 450105 451103 452102
 0.25 450855 449852 447853 445856 443857 439858 438859 436861
      437863 440864 442863 445862 447860 449858 450855
 0.25 429907 429906 428905 427904 426904 424904 422904 421905
      420905 419907 418907 419908 419910 421911 422911 424911
      426911 427910 428909 429908 429907
 0.25 416879 416871 414864 412859 407854 401853 395855 393863
      396869 400874 403878 407882 413883 416879
 0.25 381706 382701 380696 376693 372693 369695 365699 356708
      348718 332736 316753 311758 308763 305768 303774 302778
      300781 296784 295788 300787 306784 314783 321781 326778
      336769 344761 352752 360743 367732 374722 378714 381706
 0.25 378078 379076 378074 377073 376073 376075 376076 377078
      378078
 0.25 361067 360065 359064 358065 358067 360067 361067
 0.25 340095 339093 338092 338091 337089 336088 336086 335086
      334084 332086 333088 333090 335092 336093 336094 337095
      338097 340095
 0.25 333058 332057 330057 328057 328058 330058 332058 333058
 0.25 316114 316112 317110 317106 316103 315101 312099 311098
      309100 308102 308104 310108 311111 313113 314114 316114
 0.25 315860 315853 313847 309837 302829 302822 300817 294809
      290806 285804 281808 278809 267806 264808 265812 269814
      277817 282820 286823 284828 283830 284833 293853 296864
      298876 302895 306891 308885 312877 315867 315860
 0.25 304857 305852 304848 303844 302842 301838 299837 297838
      296843 296845 296847 298850 299853 301855 302857 304857
 0.25 298092 296088 290085 282085 277083 273079 270078 270081
      273085 277089 281092 287095 292096 298094 298092
 0.25 303952 303950 303949 301948 299949 297950 297952 296953
      295954 295956 294958 294960 295962 296962 297961 299960
      299959 300958 301956 303954 303952 303952
 0.25 283989 283983 281981 275978 268975 261973 256972 253974
      249980 251986 254989 259990 264992 269994 273993 281991
      283989
 0.50 474865 474862 474861 472861 470863 469863 467865 466866
      464868 463871 464873 464874 466874 467873 469873 471872
      472870 473870 473868 474866 474865
 0.50 460874 459872 457872 456874 455874 454874 453877 454878
      456878 457877 458876 459874 460874
 0.50 436782 436772 436768 434765 431765 428767 425772 423777
      420784 418790 420794 421795 427796 432793 435788 436782
 0.50 375712 374705 371704 364708 352721 341734 330746 318759
      315763 314768 315770 319773 324772 328770 334765 347752
      358739 368725 372718 375712
 0.50 360859 361853 359850 355850 352851 347857 344862 339867
      334873 336878 336881 338884 341886 344884 349879 353872
      357867 360859 360859
 0.50 332919 330917 330918 331919 332919 332919
 0.50 305882 306880 305879 304880 303881 303882 305882 305882
 0.50 294822 294821 293820 292818 292816 292815 290814 291812
      289811 288810 286812 286813 286814 286815 288816 289818
      290819 292820 294822 294822
 0.50 290833 289832 288831 287831 289833 289834 290833

$$




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