Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 250640
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 25/1200 UTC THRU JUN 26/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST STATES TO TX AND SRN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES...

A DECENT FRONTAL ZONE WILL PRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST BUT BECOME MORE QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF COAST
BACK INTO TX. ELEVATED MOISTURE CONTENT INVOF OF THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED TO MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS/STORMS,
WHILE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROUND THE SMALL COMPACT RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST TO ALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINS TO
THRIVE. THIS FORECAST SCENARIO IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE BULK
OF THE GUIDANCE, FROM GLOBAL TO HI-RES SUITE. WPC FOLLOWED A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH THE NAM CONEST/HRW-ARW AND HRW-NMMB FOR 1-2
INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES FROM
COASTAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SERN/SOUTHERN GA AND FL PANHANDLE
TO EXTREME SOUTHERN AL/MS TO SOUTHERN LA AND MUCH OF SERN/SOUTHERN
TX. ALL ALONG THIS AXIS, A MARGINAL THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE BACK UPSTREAM, GUIDANCE SHOW SMALL
SCALE UPPER DYNAMICS TRACKING OVER THE SWRN RIDGE INTO NM/TX
PANHANDLE, WHERE A ELEVATED POOL OF MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE
PRESENT. EXPECT ONE BATCH OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS MORNING AND TRACK SOUTH AND EAST FROM NERN NM INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE BEFORE WEAKENING BY MIDDAY. THEN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP OVER
NM AND PRESS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/SERN PORTION OF THE
STATE.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND...

A BROAD ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL STEER TWO VIGOROUS UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
ACTIVE WESTERLIES FOR POCKETS OF INSTABILITY AND STEADY
PRECIPITATION. ONE SHORT WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING NORTHERN LOWER MI
AND PROCEED THROUGH SOUTHERN/SERN ONTARIO TOWARD NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND MAINE ON SUN INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST QPF
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER. MEANWHILE
UPSTREAM, A SHORT WAVE JUST NORTH OF NWRN MN WILL DIG SOUTH AND
EAST INTO NORTHERN WI AND LAKE MI FOR A STREAK OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL. A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE HEAVIEST QPF FROM NERN MN INTO WESTERN UP OF MI AND
NERN WI.

...NORTHERN CA/WESTERN OR...

A CLOSED LOW ALOFT OFF THE WEST COAST WILL APPROACH NORTHERN CA
AND OREGON ON SUNDAY. THE LOWERING OF UPPER HEIGHTS AND BROAD
UPPER DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
MOISTURE CONTENT FOR A CHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MOST OPPORTUNE AREA APPEARS TO BE NRN
CA TERRAIN INTO SWRN OR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERALL SHOULD BE RATHER
MINIMAL OVERALL.


MUSHER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 525931 525915 519911 512916 510910 508906 503898 499896
      496894 491883 489878 488871 484859 483853 479841 479835
      481829 480821 479817 476805 473793 469779 469771 469766
      471755 475731 480709 481697 482682 481668 479661 477658
      467661 463663 460664 459660 457660 456663 448661 444664
      442670 441672 443676 446675 452668 455665 454670 450680
      445689 440698 438699 438696 438690 435691 433696 427706
      423714 420713 418716 414725 412730 409735 405738 406741
      411744 408751 411760 409764 410768 412765 414766 415769
      416775 414779 414788 412792 414796 414804 413817 416828
      423828 425834 425841 428850 430860 422857 417858 415862
      413865 410863 408866 412872 415876 417880 418886 422893
      427900 430908 433911 437914 440917 443922 457937 461943
      464947 467950 479961 483965 486967 494972 498973 503973
      505968 509966 514965 517962 518954 517949 518945 523938
      525931
 0.01 489035 490029 489026 486020 480009 477004 472999 468998
      465996 462993 463992 469991 472985 474976 474972 472968
      462959 454959 450958 447956 417914 413923 412926 412932
      410935 407938 406947 405949 402951 398946 395940 390933
      386929 381925 377912 376909 375907 373908 373913 373918
      371923 371934 372940 373951 374959 375962 374964 373968
      373972 374983 374990 372993 368993 366991 360991 357989
      352992 347994 339995 338998 335000 333998 328997 325996
      322998 318001 321006 323014 325019 322025 316030 312033
      312038 310039 300042 301048 296050 292056 292062 293071
      294076 290079 283078 279077 276075 273074 271070 269062
      266057 261053 259051 256051 247051 238050 235054 236060
      239065 243069 249072 257084 267089 277098 283101 290102
      294101 299103 304108 310112 314113 316111 320108 326107
      329107 331110 334108 338110 347118 345120 346123 349121
      354123 356125 360125 359122 357119 360117 355112 351112
      351106 352096 354090 365091 368090 366088 361084 359082
      359077 365074 369073 370070 372072 373076 374080 376080
      377072 380065 381060 388064 393061 399059 406059 411057
      415053 419036 415020 416017 418016 420018 424024 428025
      426014 426010 425007 424002 426999 430994 432991 433985
      434977 436979 438985 442989 446990 446987 445984 446981
      449975 450988 463011 471023 474029 480037 484039 489035
 0.01 467212 465206 461207 458213 455213 454208 451205 447206
      445208 444213 442215 440214 437213 428206 425205 424207
      427211 431215 435216 438219 442220 447217 452216 455222
      458222 461225 464224 464217 467212
 0.01 457237 455233 451234 446235 443232 441230 441227 438226
      429228 425227 425221 421218 415216 412214 415212 417208
      413207 395200 401214 403216 408219 409225 406227 397227
      399232 404235 407237 412240 422240 427241 432241 441237
      444236 448239 453239 456237 457237
 0.01 400686 399681 397681 393677 391676 386680 376688 371692
      370694 367693 363690 358689 350697 342706 335718 325736
      314758 301782 296792 290799 285802 280801 275800 271798
      264789 261787 260790 260794 258796 255797 247797 244798
      241800 238806 237811 238820 241824 247827 257831 265836
      270837 273835 275832 276830 278830 278835 275840 277844
      280845 285841 289839 288846 289854 290862 290869 289875
      285886 281897 280904 277909 273915 269919 265924 260928
      244941 241945 239952 237962 235969 236975 233988 233995
      235002 236005 239007 244011 247014 251017 257019 265019
      275024 280026 285027 290029 293028 293024 293020 296017
      297014 301013 304006 304001 308001 309003 311001 314995
      314986 317981 319968 320962 323958 325925 324909 322903
      320900 318899 313896 312888 316873 318861 321850 327839
      330834 334829 336823 339818 341814 343808 348796 351791
      353788 354782 355775 358771 366766 367763 366759 365756
      365752 365749 368746 373742 381734 387724 393713 396708
      398698 400686
 0.01 414017 413015 412015 411013 410014 411016 411017 413019
      414017
 0.01 413003 413001 413998 413996 412994 411994 411991 410990
      408990 407991 407993 407996 408998 408000 410003 411005
      413003
 0.01 406049 406047 404044 404042 403041 402042 401043 400044
      400046 400048 401050 402050 404050 406049
 0.01 384198 385196 385193 383192 382190 381190 380191 378191
      377192 376193 375193 376194 377195 379195 381195 382197
      384198 384198
 0.25 494934 495915 494903 492896 489889 482888 478885 475877
      471864 469855 467852 469849 472844 470836 469830 469824
      469813 468800 465781 464769 464760 464752 466745 468730
      469722 472715 474708 474705 471704 461708 454708 451713
      448720 447728 448737 447746 447751 446756 447766 444778
      442786 442794 442798 444800 449799 453806 455813 457820
      458829 456838 452835 448833 442831 439828 437827 436834
      440839 445840 451842 454843 454849 450861 448865 444860
      441855 437851 439856 441864 441869 442873 444875 447880
      451888 476936 480938 488939 492938 494934
 0.25 416232 416229 415229 413231 415232 416232
 0.25 427982 426980 426979 424979 423980 423982 424984 426984
      427982
 0.25 387696 387692 386689 381689 375694 368702 362705 358704
      351709 344717 333737 329745 325753 315771 310780 306791
      303800 300804 296808 278810 275815 270817 264811 259810
      257813 258816 260819 265821 276823 281824 289824 293825
      299824 304823 307827 307830 305836 302840 300846 297855
      296862 296869 297879 294884 293891 293898 292902 292909
      293914 294919 294927 294933 291938 285945 281949 276951
      271950 269945 266941 261943 257945 254948 253952 250954
      248959 248965 248969 246975 245981 246988 251996 259001
      264004 269005 279008 285009 288007 290003 295001 299996
      300991 306985 309981 311976 311969 310963 310956 310953
      308949 308945 306940 303932 302925 304920 306916 305910
      303906 302900 301894 300891 301888 305885 307880 309865
      313855 316848 321838 326829 336813 340803 344790 349782
      351773 355762 356750 361742 367734 371730 375725 380716
      384705 387696
 0.25 403021 403015 402011 401009 398008 394009 391007 386007
      383010 378011 370008 364001 360999 354999 345000 331009
      330014 332019 328027 324034 324038 325039 328040 325043
      320043 313048 309051 308054 310063 313074 316082 319086
      323087 328084 330087 334089 336093 340097 342096 342094
      338088 340083 343081 346077 347072 355067 360067 362064
      361058 363056 371055 376055 381057 387053 390054 392053
      391048 391043 387042 383045 381046 378044 376041 376036
      380027 382024 386022 395024 399025 403021
 0.25 396977 397971 397965 393959 389952 386946 384943 380942
      381949 383958 386965 385974 386979 388981 392986 394984
      395979 396977
 0.25 339069 339067 337067 335068 335069 333071 335072 336071
      337071 338070 339069
 0.25 321924 321922 321920 320917 319915 318913 317913 316913
      315914 314915 315918 315920 316922 316924 317926 319926
      321924
 0.25 286014 285013 283013 283014 285015 286014
 0.25 284991 283987 279985 275983 272982 268980 266982 264985
      266989 267994 269998 272999 275997 279996 282995 284991
 0.50 491922 491909 489899 488896 485894 480893 478892 473885
      469878 466871 463864 462860 459859 453863 451871 445870
      453881 456891 459898 462905 467912 473927 475930 479931
      483931 487929 490926 491922
 0.50 472907 470906 468906 468907 469908 470910 472909 472907
 0.50 462743 460738 456734 454736 453742 451758 451763 452772
      452780 453789 457801 461812 463813 465811 464802 462785
      461768 461753 462743
 0.50 466839 466836 466834 466831 465829 464831 464834 463836
      464839 466840 466839
 0.50 397021 398018 397016 397015 396014 395013 393013 393016
      393017 394018 395020 396020 397021 397021
 0.50 380700 378697 375699 368707 364709 357710 353713 349716
      339731 334740 330749 322766 314783 311792 313804 314808
      314812 312817 310826 309832 307835 304838 302843 300855
      304867 302877 303880 305880 307875 306866 310856 317839
      326820 331814 335805 343785 346778 349767 351755 355746
      359739 365731 371722 376714 379707 380700
 0.50 389050 388048 387047 385047 384049 385050 386051 388051
      389050
 0.50 390963 390961 389960 388961 389963 389964 390963
 0.50 382054 382051 381049 379048 378048 377049 376051 377052
      378053 379054 381054 382054
 0.50 373050 369040 368037 369034 371032 370028 366019 360009
      358007 353003 347004 344004 341004 340006 338010 337013
      334014 336019 336023 334029 330033 332035 333037 332044
      331047 328048 323049 320047 316051 314052 313055 314060
      315065 318070 323072 327070 335065 339063 342065 346067
      350064 357056 359053 364052 367051 370052 373050
 0.50 360063 359061 357061 356062 357063 359064 360063
 0.50 319922 319921 318920 317919 317920 317922 317924 318924
      319923 319922
 0.50 307816 306813 302812 297811 291811 288810 284812 279815
      275819 276820 281821 286819 294819 299821 305818 307816
 0.50 309973 309969 308967 305963 304961 303957 303949 305945
      304939 301928 301923 304918 303911 300905 299901 298901
      298905 293910 296920 296928 297935 298939 298947 299953
      298958 296962 291962 290959 287959 283961 279964 278970
      284978 290978 290983 289987 289991 289994 291993 293992
      295994 297995 298992 299985 303982 309973
 0.50 296973 296970 296968 296966 296965 294966 292968 292970
      293972 294973 295973 296973
 0.50 278976 278974 277973 275973 274974 275976 275977 277977
      278976
 0.50 266817 265815 264814 262813 260813 259815 261817 263818
      264818 266817
 1.00 488909 487905 485902 483901 481902 479904 478907 478912
      479914 481917 482920 485922 486922 485919 486917 487912
      488909
 1.00 467890 468888 468885 467883 466881 464879 464878 463878
      461877 459877 458879 459881 459883 460886 461888 463891
      464893 465895 465893 466891 467890
 1.00 457786 457783 457786 457786
 1.00 457778 456776 456774 456773 456774 456776 456779 456780
      457778
 1.00 360725 360720 357717 352719 349722 345728 340735 334750
      328766 321782 319789 317798 320799 323795 327788 339777
      342771 345763 352747 359732 360725
 1.00 361027 360018 357011 354009 351009 345008 342008 342011
      342015 340018 339022 341026 343032 346039 348042 351042
      357042 359039 360034 361027
 1.00 347061 346061 344060 344061 344062 346062 347061
 1.00 342056 341056 339056 341057 342056
 1.00 342048 342047 340045 340047 340048 342049 342048
 1.00 336795 336789 334787 331790 329794 327797 324801 321804
      320808 321812 325812 328809 330805 332800 334797 336795
 1.00 336054 334053 331053 329053 325054 323055 319055 316056
      317060 319062 321063 324064 327064 330062 330059 333058
      335056 336054
 1.00 320825 318824 317826 316826 315828 316830 317830 318830
      319830 320827 320825
 1.00 311848 309847 307848 305849 305850 304852 304853 303855
      304855 306856 307854 309852 310850 311848 311848
 1.00 305844 306842 305841 304842 305844 305845 305844
 1.00 305876 305873 304874 304876 305876 305876
 1.00 304968 304964 301964 300966 299970 299973 297976 295977
      293979 295980 299979 301979 300977 299975 301973 303971
      304968
 1.50 356730 356725 353723 348728 340740 337747 335755 329769
      323783 320790 321793 322791 330780 335775 338769 346756
      352742 356730
 1.50 357033 357028 356022 354018 352015 349012 345013 343018
      343023 345026 347031 350033 353037 355037 357034 357033
 1.50 356016 356013 356016 356016
 2.00 353735 351728 348732 344737 341742 339747 337754 336760
      341758 344754 347749 350744 352737 353735
 2.00 354029 354027 353027 352024 350024 350026 352029 353030
      354029
 2.00 349015 347015 349015 349015

$$





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