Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 230948
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
548 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 23/1200 UTC THRU MAY 26/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT REMAINS ON TRACK ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...

THE LATEST SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT...HIGH-IMPACT MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAIN EVENT
SPANNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEGINNING
IN EARNEST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD (SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING)...HIGHLIGHTED BY THE EXPECTATION OF
A LARGE SCALE...SLOW MOVING NOCTURNAL QLCS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CONSIDERING THE ANTECEDENT SATURATED SOILS AND LOW FFG
ON BOTH SIDES OF THE RED RIVER ACROSS SOUTHERN-CENTRAL OK AND
NORTHERN TX...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING OVER
THESE AREAS WILL BE ENHANCED.

DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS...AS THE MAIN (BROAD) UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS
THE NEXT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSES THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...THE ENSUING UPSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE THE BROAD-SCALE UPPER DIFFLUENCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST AS THE
TROUGH-RIDGE ORIENTATION AMPLIFIES (UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED). FROM A DYNAMICAL STANDPOINT...THE LARGE SCALE
UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ALONG THE STREAM OF
THE BACKED SW-S UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH-RIDGE AXES.
MEANWHILE...INCREASE S-N UPPER CONFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL INDUCE AN ANOMALOUS 90-100 KT SOUTHERLY 250 MB JET STREAK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...ONE WHICH BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD WOULD PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL BOOST TO THE ALREADY ROBUST
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITHIN ITS RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE ANOMALOUS COOL SEASON DYNAMICAL SETUP WILL COUPLE WITH THE
EQUALLY-ROBUST WARM SEASON THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IN GENERATING
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO THIS REGION...PARTICULARLY LATE TODAY
THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE MESOSCALE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CLUSTERED CONVECTION PRIOR TO
THE ONSET OF ONE MAIN (SIGNIFICANT) QLCS AFTER 00Z. THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INFLOW (45-50 KT SOUTHERLY LLJ ~850 MB)
AND ANOMALOUS 850-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF
WILL BOOST PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.75-2.00+ INCHES...OR 2-2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORM PER THE SREF/GEFS ENSEMBLES. MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY (MUCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG) WILL BE IN PLACE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY 12Z SUN.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BOTH IN TERMS OF QPF
AND THE AREAL-EXTENT OF THE ELEVATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL...WILL BE HOW PROGRESSIVE THE DEVELOPING QLCS WILL BE
LATE IN THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LLJ WILL BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL AND OF THE SAME
MAGNITUDE (IF NOT HIGHER) THAN THE MEAN 850-300 MB WIND ACROSS
NORTH TX INTO OK AND KANSAS...THEREBY LEADING TO INCREASING UPWIND
PROPAGATION AND LIGHT (IN SOME AREAS EASTERLY) CORFIDI VECTORS.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS LIFTING
NNE. HOWEVER...ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...MORE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS NOTED BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND MEAN
WIND...WITH THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW MARKEDLY HIGHER THAN THE MEAN
FLOW. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHEASTERLY MBE OR
CORFIDI VECTOR (15-20+ KTS)...WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN WHY MULTIPLE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (NAM
CONEST...WRF-ARW...WRF-NMMB...NSSL-WRF) BRING HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS INTO THE CRP-VIC CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST TX (THOUGH NOT ALL
THE WAY TO BRO AND THE LOWER RGV). MOREOVER...AS WITH ANY MADDOX
SYNOPTIC-TYPE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS SUCH AS THIS...THERE IS ALWAYS
A CONCERN THAT THE STRONGER CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
AXIS OF GREATER DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY WILL AT LEAST TO SOME
DEGREE DISRUPT THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.
NEVERTHELESS...IN AN EFFORT TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAIN IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GLOBAL
GUIDANCE/TRENDS...WPC OPTED TO KEEP THE HIGHER DETERMINISTIC QPF
AMOUNTS OVER NORTH TX INTO OK WITH THE LOWER AMOUNTS ALONG THE TX
GULF COAST.


...CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...

THE INITIAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN
NEBRASKA ACROSS SD CURRENTLY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOP NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER IN EASTER WY TONIGHT AND
EXTENDING ALONG THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS INTO NORTHEAST CO.

THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG 850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUXES
AND INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SUPPORT SHOWERS/STORMS
BREAKING OUT ACROSS KS SAT.  LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE STATE.  MANUAL QPF USED A MULTI-MODEL QPF
ALTHOUGH CUT BACK AMOUNTS A LITTLE AS CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO THE
SOUTH IN OK/TX MAY INTERRUPT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STATE.


...GREAT BASIN...

A REGION OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL DRIFT EAST INTO
NV/UT/ADJACENT SOUTHERN ID WITH STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AGAIN IN THIS ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS WITH 700 MB
VERTICAL VELOCITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD CIRCULATION
LEADING TO A RAINFALL MAXIMA IN THAT REGION. THIS COINCIDES WITH A
MAX REGION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE.  ELSEWHERE...MAXIMA IN THE RANGES
OF NORTHEAST OR/SOUTHERN ID/NORTHWEST WY/NORTHERN NV/NORTHERN UT
COINCIDE WHERE ASCENT IS AUGMENTED BY UPSLOPE FLOW.  LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS MOVE SLOWLY.  MANUAL QPF USED
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...WHICH MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST.


DAYS 2/3...

...PLAINS EASTWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH PUSHES
EAST...INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
EJECT INTO THE PLAINS PROVIDING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. A
90KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...PUTTING OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NORTH...WITH VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES BECOMING COMMON. GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE
PARAMETERS...HIGH RAINFALL RATES ARE LIKELY IN ANY
CONVECTION...QUESTION BECOMES EXACTLY WHERE...AND DO WE SEE
TRAINING OF CONVECTION TO HELP INCREASE AMOUNTS. THE FIRST ROUND
OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z SUNDAY FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TEXAS. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT SHOWS TWO QPF MAXIMUM...ONE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ANOTHER ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THIS SEEMS TO
MAKE CONCEPTUAL SENSE AS WELL...WITH THE SOUTHERN MAXIMUM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHER INSTABILITY...GREATER MOISTURE...AND
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AND THE SECOND REGION FOCUSED
CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. IF THIS OCCURS A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
BETWEEN THE TWO IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION HELPING
INTERRUPT MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH. NOT A SURE BET...AND STILL
EXPECTING AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN EAST CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT
ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO BREAK THE MODERATE RISK INTO TWO AREAS...ONE
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ANOTHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...BOTH
SURROUNDED BY A BROADER SLIGHT RISK. OTHER QUESTION IS TIMING. HI
RES MODELS APPEAR TO BE QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION
ON SUNDAY THAN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE. NOT TOO SURE OF THIS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES ALIGNED WITH AND STRONGER
THAN THE MEAN WIND...SUGGESTING A BACKBUILDING POTENTIAL. SO DOES
THE FACT THAT THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH. THUS
NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW FAST EAST ANY MCS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...SO FOR NOW STAYED WITH THE SLOWER GLOBAL GUIDANCE GIVEN
THE ABOVE REASONS..BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THE FASTER MOTION IS QUITE POSSIBLE...AS CORFIDI VECTORS ARE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITY
WILL EXIST. SO AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM IS
QUITE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF HAPPENS...COULD HELP MOVE THINGS ALONG
AND PUSH THE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER QPF FURTHER EAST QUICKER
THAN FORECAST. IF THIS HAPPENS...THE PERIOD OF POST MCS STABLE AIR
COULD HOLD OFF REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND COULD RESULT IN LOWER QPF THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. ENOUGH OF A
SIGNAL FOR HIGH QPF AMOUNTS AND GIVEN THAT VERY HIGH RATES ARE
LIKELY AND THE AREA HAS BEEN WET RECENTLY...STILL FELT LIKE THE
MODERATE RISK WAS WARRANTED...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

A SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY. THE MOISTURE PROFILES WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR INSTABILITY TO RECOVER FROM
SUNDAYS STORMS...SO GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING...ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN SEEMS LIKELY. MODELS HAVE MADE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
SHIFT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH REGARDS TO THIS WAVE...TRENDING
QUICKER AND A BIT DEEPER. JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE 0Z GUIDANCE HAS
COME AROUND TO THIS FASTER SOLUTION...ALONG WITH 0Z ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES...BOTH WHICH SHOW HIGH PROBABILITIES OF OVER 2 INCHES
ACROSS EAST TEXAS. GIVEN THAT THIS TREND HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE FOR THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS ON MOST GUIDANCE...AND THE
FACT THAT THERE IS NOW GOOD AGREEMENT...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
MAKE RATHER BIG CHANGES TO THE WPC DAY 3 QPF. AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED AND SHIFTED NORTH...WITH A LARGE AREA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
FROM ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN TEXAS. WPC USED A NON NAM
MULTI MODEL BLEND FOR QPF...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
ENSEMBLE MEANS. AGAIN ALWAYS SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAR NORTH THE
HEAVIER RAINS CAN GET IN THESE TYPE OF SETUP...SO THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN TEXAS...WHERE
WE WENT WITH A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES AS YOU HEAD NORTH...AS DESPITE NORTHEAST MOVING STORM
MOTIONS...ANY CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT ORGANIZES IS LIKELY TO
PROPAGATE MORE EASTWARD...POTENTIAL;LY CUTTING OFF INFLOW FURTHER
NORTH AND LIMITING AMOUNTS.

OVERALL WPC USED A A MULTI MODEL BLEND AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE DAY 2/3 QPF...WHICH WAS ADJUSTED SOME
BASED ON THE ECMWF/GFS/SREF ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A SECOND MAX OF QPF IS LIKELY ACROSS A PORTION OF THE HIGH PLAINS
ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED JET STREAK. ON DAY 3...MONDAY THE SECOND MAX
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...IN AREA OF BETS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AREA OF STILL
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES.

HURLEY/CHENARD

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 24/12Z
 0.01 526233 528225 528218 523209 520205 519200 515187 496182
      491181 487185 480195 478199 474200 470202 466202 459205
      454208 452208 451205 452196 454189 456186 460183 461180
      462174 464171 469161 475154 482148 487141 489134 489127
      487113 487097 479090 476088 473082 473076 470075 463079
      461076 465074 468072 471068 473064 476061 478059 478051
      479039 479032 478026 475014 475001 470991 468985 467976
      466964 464957 461951 456940 452934 448925 447916 443906
      434888 428882 424880 420881 416884 413888 408896 403903
      394906 383911 379907 378904 374899 369896 365898 364905
      361912 354911 350910 346910 337915 335917 331918 328917
      326919 324918 319911 317902 315896 312893 311886 310881
      306871 304867 301863 296855 292844 294820 292816 292814
      294812 299811 299804 297798 295793 293789 295785 299777
      299772 296770 289768 283769 280773 279778 276787 274792
      269793 260798 258794 254794 251797 251802 251809 245811
      242815 244819 251825 250830 251834 253839 256841 265844
      268846 273846 283844 288845 290848 293854 295860 295866
      291868 286866 280863 277863 279867 283879 284890 279889
      276893 279906 282923 285932 287936 286941 278944 270949
      263953 255955 247959 241965 237975 235977 237981 238983
      236985 233989 232994 231998 234009 235015 237019 250028
      256035 260042 263051 264055 264062 265071 270075 274078
      281078 284070 284066 286065 290063 299059 308056 315051
      322042 326038 328034 333027 336024 340025 350027 355028
      357028 358031 361035 361042 361048 360054 359059 358065
      360068 358071 356076 354083 353089 352095 353099 352106
      349112 348117 349124 351129 357138 361141 363142 362145
      357153 360163 362167 360171 358174 357179 357183 360188
      366194 371199 376205 384210 392216 394219 391222
 0.01 391222 389224 390229 394231 397230 401228 407230 411231
      414229 417225 421221 430224 442215 452213 459220 462222
      467222 476222 479223 482227 487233 493242 498248 503258
      504260 507258 518246 524241 526233
 0.01 527949 526923 525911 523907 523902 519887 514869 512859
      509852 504831 503827 502820 502816 500813 495797 489780
      487776 486770 483762 481754 479747 475738 473730 473721
      472715 470711 464707 462703 462697 461691 463689 467690
      469689 474677 478669 479661 478654 476651 470646 460641
      454638 449639 442642 438648 437653 438659 442665 443670
      443679 442689 443693 445695 448702 447709 446715 447720
      447727 450730 452737 454740 455747 456755 458763 461770
      461773 461780 461791 463801 465807 469814 473820 477825
      481842 483855 484868 484880 485888 488894 492899 495906
      498916 500920 500926 503936 504943 509949 515960 521961
      525960 527949
 0.01 337174 337172 335171 334169 332168 330167 328167 326167
      325167 324167 325167 326170 328171 329172 329173 331174
      333174 335174 336175 337174
 0.25 471115 472111 472105 470099 463098 460098 458096 453091
      450086 449076 447068 444055 446050 450047 453042 455036
      459025 460017 459010 455995 453988 450979 447974 443970
      435964 432958 429952 425940 421932 417926 413923 406922
      399923 385927 379929 375928 369929 365932 350933 340936
      337939 336944 332948 326950 314947 292957 282961 273963
      268965 263970 261974 262978 265983 264986 262988 254995
      248997 242001 241007 240011 242015 261024 269031 272033
      274038 279049 280052 283052 289049 298041 303039 308036
      316028 321025 324021 331014 338010 351012 358013 362013
      364011 366009 369010 365016 365021 371021 376018 380014
      384011 388009 393012 394018 389027 387029 386034 387041
      394051 392059 390067 387073 384074 379072 376073 373074
      370078 364088 362093 361099 362110 362119 362126 369137
      376148 377152 379154 383159 384162 386162 391161 396161
      398163 399167 399173 402177 407177 410175 415169 416162
      420157 422151 434123 436117 438112 440106 445103 452104
      455107 458112 462116 467117 471115
 0.25 424100 423098 422095 420094 419095 417097 416097 415099
      416102 418102 420103 421104 422103 423101 424100
 0.25 412120 411119 410119 409119 409120 411120 412120
 0.25 408098 407093 403089 397082 392079 386078 381087 379094
      379101 380107 382111 388118 387129 390131 394132 398130
      399118 402114 404109 407103 408098
 0.25 392200 393198 392195 390195 389197 389198 390199 391200
      392200
 0.25 388194 385189 382186 383184 382179 379176 376176 371177
      368180 369183 372186 374189 378192 383193 388194
 0.25 305933 305930 303928 302928 302931 303932 305933 305933
 0.25 305920 304916 303914 301912 300910 298908 295906 293908
      292912 293915 295917 297919 299920 301924 304922 305920
 0.25 272822 272821 271820 270819 268819 267821 267823 269824
      270825 272824 272822
 0.50 449015 449009 447005 440000 433994 429997 427000 423006
      418007 414004 413001 412995 414992 417990 420987 421981
      422975 421968 419957 416947 412939 409936 405933 398933
      391935 380936 377936 372938 354944 325956 307960 297962
      288965 285966 280967 273965 270967 267970 268975 265978
      269978 273976 275977 275981 268988 264995 259000 251004
      249006 249009 254013 261017 265019 268023 272025 277026
      281029 283033 285035 288033 294027 300024 308024 336006
      341005 346006 354008 360006 366001 370992 373989 376986
      383980 389981 393982 398987 401990 404994 404005 404012
      402019 400022 395029 393032 394038 400044 403051 399061
      399067 400070 403076 411077 418078 427074 431071 434074
      437072 436069 436056 436049 437043 440040 443039 445038
      447034 448026 449015
 0.50 379133 379130 380128 380126 379124 378123 377123 376123
      375123 374125 373127 373129 374132 376133 378133 379133
 1.00 427056 427051 427049 425045 424044 420042 419043 417047
      415050 416055 417057 418061 419064 422062 425061 426058
      427056
 1.00 419039 419038 417038 415036 414038 415039 417041 419039
      419039
 1.00 412036 413033 412033 410032 409032 407033 407035 408036
      410036 412036 412036
 1.00 407961 407959 405958 404959 405960 406961 407961 407961
 1.00 400963 400962 398962 397963 398964 400963 400963
 1.00 390952 389948 386945 382944 377945 364949 350955 337959
      330962 323966 319969 312971 309971 306968 301966 296968
      293973 293978 292981 284984 279990 275993 271999 267006
      268009 270012 277015 285016 313013 318009 324003 328000
      332000 337001 346002 351002 356000 360996 364991 366982
      368978 371975 381968 384964 387958 390952
 1.50 382954 378950 369951 359955 353958 346960 336963 324970
      315977 306984 293987 289990 284994 280997 277003 279005
      283007 291006 297004 300001 302000 304002 308007 311009
      316005 320000 325996 329993 333993 339997 346998 351997
      357994 359988 361980 364975 368972 377962 381958 382954
 2.00 376958 374955 369955 363957 350963 340964 334967 328970
      323975 314986 310993 311997 313998 316998 319995 324991
      330987 337985 345989 349988 351987 353982 356980 361975
      371965 376958
 3.00 367963 366962 364963 363963 361964 359965 357967 355969
      354971 355973 357972 358972 359971 361969 362968 363967
      364966 365965 366963 367963
 3.00 338973 338971 337971 335971 334971 334972 332973 331973
      330974 329975 328977 327977 327980 328981 330981 331980
      332980 334978 335977 337975 337974 338973

24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 539208 540197 540191 540185 537177 533170 526158 518155
      510154 504157 499160 496164 494165 486166 483167 479166
      472164 470160 467159 463160 462163 462168 463171 470174
      465194 466198 468200 471204 469206 462206 460210 461214
      468215 471212 474212 478211 482214 483217 487218 503246
      510258 517263 519266 522264 534228 537218 539208
 0.01 480234 480231 478230 476232 476233 477235 479234 480234
 0.01 494092 493086 490083 487080 484081 482087 479092 477094
      476090 478087 476084 476078 481071 484060 488053 492043
      494036 495028 497016 497001 493971 491957 488944 488936
      489930 489915 489900 488891 487886 486878 485875 484863
      479839 474816 472808 471803 467794 448748 440744 436744
      431745 427746 426749 424763 426785 427798 428804 427808
      416851 413856 412861 407868 400878 395878 390877 381874
      378876 373877 355876 338873 328873 325871 325865 322861
      322857 320853 316851 313847 317844 321840 323836 325824
      324819 321813 323805 319802 316798 303789 283787 272788
      263787 255787 249783 244782 241783 238791 237797 237803
      238812 240818 243823 252827 255825 257820 259825 260830
      264833 267835 276837 283842 291846 283861 279876 283903
      282914 276922 270939 262958 259967 257971 256977 253986
      251992 252994 265998 267001 273001 277003 275005 267012
      267017 268019 272022 279022 284018 291012 300009 305011
      307009 310010 314014 314020 318022 321019 324018 329019
      332021 336020 340018 344015 349016 351013 354011 358014
      364020 366023 370023 374021 377017 382008 386008 386015
      387021 387028 387036 385042 380044 377044 375041 377035
      375030 368034 360038 358042 357048 354057 350059 348064
      350067 349070 343069 340071 337074 334077 336079 346125
      347130 351133 352135 355132 360134 363136 362140 361147
      358151 356149 352151 352155 356158 361161 360164 358165
      358174 359178 357182 354184 352181 353184 358186 362188
      366190 384204 393208 399209 398204 392198 388196 387191
      384186 383180 388179 391183 393184 397181 401183 400187
 0.01 400187 410179 415178 417178 419180 420183 423179 421169
      423167 425168 428170 432171 433166 426160 423156 425153
      429152 430156 433159 437161 441165 443171 435189 434197
      435202 439198 442195 444191 450187 449182 446181 447177
      449175 452176 455179 459180 462175 459171 459165 458161
      460158 458155 457152 452151 446145 441143 440137 439124
      439121 441118 444123 443129 445132 450135 453133 457135
      462136 469133 472131 476134 480135 481132 478129 478124
      475121 477117 476112 477106 488101 492098 494092
 0.01 485743 484730 483723 481718 477712 471708 465704 460704
      459706 450708 444714 440715 439719 447719 447735 450737
      454735 460729 471741 479757 482764 486765 486760 485750
      485743
 0.01 479688 478680 475673 471669 466669 459669 455670 458676
      462681 465685 468692 471697 477694 479688
 0.01 477096 477094 476092 474092 473093 472094 472096 470097
      470098 470099 471100 472102 473101 475099 477096
 0.01 473121 474118 474116 474113 474111 473108 471108 470110
      470113 471114 471116 470118 469116 468117 467120 468122
      470122 472122 473121
 0.01 410204 411202 410201 409201 408201 408204 410204 410204
 0.01 407213 407210 406209 405210 404211 403212 402214 402216
      403217 404217 405215 406215 407213 407213
 0.01 388100 388095 385094 382093 380096 379099 377101 374100
      372098 370100 369104 370106 373109 377107 378105 380103
      383101 384101 388100
 0.01 351104 352101 350099 349097 347097 347096 345094 344092
      342090 341091 342094 344096 345098 347101 347103 348105
      350106 351104
 0.25 528231 531221 531214 530210 522197 519192 515187 511182
      503179 500179 496185 493192 491196 492199 497201 501207
      504226 506232 511238 515242 519249 523249 525241 528231
 0.25 484040 485030 485021 485013 484003 480992 476982 473976
      471970 469963 465957 464953 465944 466935 468927 470920
      471913 470896 469880 468863 468852 466840 464832 462826
      457815 450804 443798 439797 438799 437807 437821 436835
      434849 432858 430865 424876 416885 411888 407890 396895
      391896 384896 376892 370891 365892 359894 353897 342899
      329902 324900 320896 314886 308879 304876 299875 296879
      294884 292890 291896 297906 298910 297913 292918 285926
      285933 283939 280950 276959 273965 271973 270982 271989
      274993 277994 281994 289994 293993 299991 304989 307988
      310990 314994 317998 322000 331003 337002 341999 348990
      352985 357982 365981 369978 378972 383970 390969 400970
      406972 410975 417984 420000 420013 419018 418022 414029
      411042 409049 406054 402056 400063 396073 395079 397085
      399090 404096 406101 408103 411103 415101 418104 421104
      425108 427108 428104 431100 432096 431092 429087 428083
      431080 436077 440076 445079 450082 455080 463072 473061
      479052 484040
 0.25 408156 408152 407149 407145 405144 402143 398142 396143
      395147 396150 399152 402153 402155 404158 405158 408156
 0.25 392146 392144 391142 390142 389141 388142 387143 387145
      387146 389147 391147 392146
 0.50 517214 518209 516203 515198 513194 510191 506190 504195
      506200 507203 511207 513211 517214 517214
 0.50 479034 480030 480025 478019 474006 469996 466991 462988
      457989 455993 452000 448005 442013 436023 431035 428038
      425044 422049 418052 415057 412061 409066 407072 408077
      409078 414075 425075 431073 434071 441070 446072 450072
      453071 457068 464061 467056 471051 476044 479034
 0.50 462864 463852 461842 455829 450822 447820 444823 443832
      441841 435874 431882 427889 415898 403905 398908 394912
      390918 382922 376904 373898 368899 361902 357905 344912
      328917 299922 293926 289932 288941 286949 280963 277970
      275975 273983 279988 284991 290989 297987 302982 309981
      315981 321985 326990 332993 336993 339991 349982 361976
      373969 386963 412954 419951 427950 432951 436949 441945
      446940 450935 454928 457922 460915 461906 463894 462881
      462864
 0.50 306892 307890 306888 305887 305886 303884 302883 300884
      298887 297889 297891 297893 298895 300897 302896 304895
      306893 306892
 1.00 464040 464035 464032 462030 459029 456029 454032 454037
      454042 455046 456049 458051 460050 462047 463043 464040
 1.00 454855 453852 452850 451849 450850 450853 451855 451856
      453857 454855
 1.00 435928 435921 433915 430911 427909 421909 417911 412914
      409919 403928 396932 394938 392943 386943 382940 378937
      373938 362940 361934 361928 361924 360918 356916 353916
      351918 348926 344930 339930 326933 316935 311935 306933
      303929 298928 294932 293937 287958 285969 286974 289979
      291983 296983 299979 302977 310971 316969 323970 328971
      331975 333980 336982 342983 346981 355974 360972 363969
      370964 389956 398951 406947 424936 431933 435928
 1.00 372911 372909 371909 371911 371912 372911
 1.50 367954 366950 363945 359945 355947 352949 346949 341949
      339952 336956 336962 339966 340971 339975 341980 343980
      346978 353972 359967 364959 367954
 1.50 310958 311953 309949 307943 301937 300934 297935 294941
      291949 290958 288968 290972 293975 296975 299973 303968
      308962 310958
 2.00 359958 359954 357953 350952 347954 345956 343958 345961
      347967 346969 343971 341973 342978 346976 350973 354968
      356963 359958
 2.00 305956 306952 305947 304945 303943 300941 297940 296942
      294945 294947 292952 292956 294959 297960 301959 304958
      305956
 3.00 301949 301947 299946 297947 296949 297951 299952 300952
      301951 301949


24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 520269 513264 507256 502248 496239 486225 480219 477216
      475211 467195 468188 469182 470179 469175 465176 433191
      425208 421221 420228 418233 411238 404238 399232 399227
      402223 400217 396213 393210 388208 380202 373195 366189
      362186 363183 364179 368178 375174 380168 381161 382154
      382147 379143 374134 369129 362128 356122 352120 348118
      343109 341105 338100 330084 330079 333075 334071 331068
      330064 330056 332055 334058 334064 336068 344070 348068
      351063 353058 354051 358044 361040 362036 364030 367027
      372026 376029 386031 391031 393024 393018 391014 389008
      387006 385008 381006 380004 380000 380993 378990 376990
      372990 369992 366992 351002 354008 354011 352016 348017
      344017 340020 334023 327027 318031 310034 305030 297025
      293023 289020 281014 278013 276007 275004 271003 266003
      264005 260006 255007 249006 245005 235001 231994 231991
      234987 238981 245976 248974 250970 252963 256955 260947
      264937 264933 267928 271921 271905 270892 269888 269883
      269872 266862 260856 256854 252854 245851 231845 227844
      226839 225833 223826 222819 221813 221806 221797 222794
      224790 227788 230784 231780 235778 237775 240775 243777
      250782 261797 267800 272800 275802 281807 284810 288812
      291812 291810 291804 291793 295790 296786 295778 295775
      297775 300776 303778 305785 309791 314794 317796 321799
      327804 343812 346814 352815 355815 358817 361823 366815
      372815 372820 374825 376821 392810 397809 401806 406804
      408801 413792 419785 423778 423773 422768 419737 418733
      420729 419725 421717 413701 412694 413691 412687 414684
      415682 418681 419678 418676 416668 418664 422662 429656
      437650 440648 444646 448645 452646 455645 458647 463650
 0.01 463650 467649 472649 477648 481646 486643 490646 494648
      497649 501650 505648 510647 512649 515653 515656 536722
      534763 534773 533779 534786 532809 530816 528828 526847
      522865 519884 515905 513911 511921 508941 508948 507952
      503960 500967 498977 498983 499988 501996 502006 502021
      501027 502033 509034 513038 516046 516052 515055 511059
      508062 507068 503075 499081 497084 495084 491084 487085
      484085 481082 477082 474082 472093 470096 469098 471100
      476105 480110 484118 488123 493129 501131 503134 506134
      513133 517135 519138 522146 526150 531156 535163 537164
      539159 542151 543138 541132 542124 538118 535115 532114
      531107 526097 523097 521094 517090 516085 518082 521075
      525068 527063 527059 530051 533050 536048 540043 542049
      545058 549066 550072 551076 554082 558091 560104
 0.01 568002 567016 566021 566027 566035 564040 561046 558034
      557027 555021 553010 553004 551998 551990 550985 550968
      549960 549952 549943 549940 550936 550903 549895 551890
      550873 550865 548857 548849 546844 548838 547830 549816
      552808 553799
 0.01 504988 502988 502990 504988 504988
 0.01 469641 467641 465642 467641 469641 469641
 0.01 465097 464095 463094 462092 461089 461087 459084 458084
      456084 454086 454088 454090 455093 457095 458096 460096
      462099 463099 465097
 0.01 389134 390132 390130 389128 387129 385131 385134 386136
      388136 389134
 0.01 389025 390022 390020 390018 390017 389015 388015 386015
      385013 383013 381013 381015 381017 381019 381022 381024
      382026 384027 386027 388024 389025 389025
 0.25 527244 527242 528239 527238 526237 524237 524238 524240
      524241 525242 526244 526245 527244
 0.25 515229 518219 518209 518203 516200 513192 512185 511175
      508169 505162 491162 486163 484169 482176 481183 484189
      489195 494199 496207 499213 501220 506225 512229 515229
 0.25 517782 516768 513758 509751 504746 500738 498734 497729
      498723 498718 497712 495707 491700 485695 482693 481687
      477680 474677 471678 471685 469691 465697 460702 453707
      447713 441729 439739 437747 436770 435781 434792 431801
      429809 426817 425828 426833 430835 436840 441845 445847
      447851 447858 449862 451871 451884 449895 441909 436916
      434920 433926 434933 435937 436948 435956 433960 430963
      427966 425970 426980 428985 431987 435989 439988 446001
      453004 456005 461006 462009 460012 460020 463029 464034
      467036 470033 472029 474020 486982 486974 490964 494955
      496948 502927 504915 505906 511885 513876 514865 516841
      517829 518816 517782
 0.25 472148 470143 470140 468138 468142 465143 460141 456139
      454143 455147 454154 454160 457161 459160 461158 464152
      467150 471150 472148
 0.25 463136 463134 462133 460133 459134 457135 457138 458140
      460140 461138 462138 463136
 0.25 446128 446126 446122 446118 446116 445113 442110 440110
      438110 437114 437119 438122 439125 440129 442132 445130
      446128
 0.25 422891 423885 421881 416876 412871 409864 407855 406850
      403847 395838 392837 390838 385843 378847 373850 359857
      356857 354855 349851 344849 341850 338852 334858 331863
      327869 322875 318876 314875 310872 307866 306863 308861
      307859 298849 294855 290862 288868 289875 289883 287892
      285907 285918 283925 278930 277933 277937 274945 271951
      264962 261968 259974 258979 260983 266986 272988 277993
      282997 285002 290007 295010 302014 306014 311014 316011
      322007 329995 345973 362952 369941 378929 389922 401915
      407911 410905 411900 414898 419895 422891
 0.25 349835 349833 348831 347831 346830 344831 344832 343834
      343836 344838 344839 346839 347838 348837 349835
 0.50 511846 512837 511826 510817 509812 507810 506812 504817
      502824 499828 495825 492819 490813 489805 490796 489791
      484786 474765 468754 463743 460741 457742 453747 451753
      450758 450765 448774 445785 444790 443799 443807 445815
      448819 451823 455828 457835 460848 462854 465859 467866
      468872 468879 468885 468894 468901 466908 464913 461917
      463923 467927 469932 469939 466946 465952 465960 467966
      469971 473975 478974 481970 483964 488953 492942 497929
      503903 506890 509875 510860 511846
 0.50 491769 491767 491764 489764 488765 489767 489768 491769
      491770 491769
 0.50 386915 373876 368876 363877 354881 347885 340891 333894
      324896 320899 317902 312909 297909 290924 282941 278949
      274956 270965 268974 268979 272981 278987 281989 286990
      290997 296002 300005 304007 309008 313005 316997 324980
      328972 335967 342962 348956 358943 362936 370930 378922
      386915
 1.00 497898 498893 496889 492889 488892 483897 480899 477907
      476915 476919 478922 482925 488924 491919 494913 496906
      497898
 1.00 373914 374909 373904 370903 367904 353907 340910 334911
      328914 320914 315916 306924 300927 296931 290942 286947
      283952 281960 281968 284975 287979 295989 300992 303992
      305991 312981 316977 321973 328962 332958 337956 343952
      346947 355940 359936 362929 369923 372918 373914
 1.50 365921 362916 359914 352914 348917 343919 337918 333921
      330924 325926 321925 317924 314925 311928 303935 300937
      298943 294952 290956 288960 287967 288973 294981 297983
      300981 303979 310973 318967 325958 332952 341948 348941
      355936 358931 359926 360923 362922 365921
 2.00 356925 356921 355918 352918 350921 346924 339924 335928
      332932 329939 329943 330945 334946 337946 342943 345939
      348932 352929 356925
 2.00 322952 322946 321943 316939 310935 306939 302945 303954
      301960 301965 302968 305970 309969 314964 319958 322952

$$




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