000
FXUS04 KWBC 231839
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 24/0000 UTC THRU MAY 25/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1

NORTHEAST


MODELS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER LAKES AND
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  PW
VALUES AHEAD OF THIS AMPLIFYING TROF WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE---2.0-2.5+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FROM
PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC---EASTERN NY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN SEVERAL LINES AHEAD OF
THIS AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN A REGION OF STRENGTHENING
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND VERY FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS---SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC/EASTERN
NY AND ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.  IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEVELOPING CONVECTION---THE AMPLIFYING CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT A
COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND FRIDAY FROM WESTERN TO
UPSTATE NY EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND.

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THE EVOLUTION OF CURRENT CONVECTION
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE
ACTIVITY.  PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF OK TODAY IS
HANGING ON WITH REDEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ON THE NORTHWESTERN END OF
THE PRECIPITATION REGION---RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM TRAINING.
CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
RE-DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHWEST TX.  AFTER
THAT---MODELS DIVERGE AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN. THE HI RES ARW AND
HI RES NMM BRING ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST
TX---WHILE ALSO DEVELOPING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE BIG BEND. THE NAM--GFS AND CMC AGREE ON DEVELOPING
CONVECTION MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST---BUT DETAILS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE LEADING TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE
GIVEN THE POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.
SEVERAL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW BULLS EYE PRECIPITATION
MAXIMA IN THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE BIG BEND--WITH THIS LEADING TO WHAT IS LIKELY CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED MID LEVEL VORTS ACROSS WEST TX TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY---LEADING TO MORE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE MODEL QPFS THIS
PERIOD AND BEYOND.  WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS PERIOD--ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER---WHERE THAT WILL BE IS STILL IN
DOUBT---LEADING THE DAY 1 QPF TO NOT TO DEPICT ANY HEAVY
AMOUNTS---BUT TO OPT FOR A BROADER REGION OF MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPDATED ONCE A
FAVORABLE LOCATION EMERGES.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  WELL DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THESE
HEIGHT FALLS IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES AND STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS PERIOD BEFORE THE STRONGEST UVVS
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO FAR EASTERN B.C. AND ALBERTA.  CLOSER TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST---THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW CENTER EXPECTED
TO PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER.
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THIS SYSTEM
WITH MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE NORTHERN OR COAST
RANGE---SOUTHERN WA COAST RANGE AND INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN
OREGON CASCADES.

ORAVEC


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 25/00Z
 0.01 497638 493627 491621 488618 478620 472620 466624 461626
      458629 457633 429657 417668 402679 388691 384696 378700
      373701 369704 365706 359710 353715 350720 348726 347734
      349741 347747 347754 347760 351770 355775 357778 361780
      372780 378778 380782 381786 378793 377796 374800 370804
      369813 364818 359821 355827 355832 356835 359833 362828
      366823 368820 371824 376824 384821 389824 393824 396825
      399824 407821 427811 449791 457778 464766 481740 485734
      487729 489724 495709 497703 499695 500688 500678 501672
      500665 500653 497642 497638
 0.01 543168 545160 545154 544149 544141 544127 543117 541093
      538070 535061 531052 524035 520029 514025 507023 505021
      502021 499022 496025 493036 494052 485059 483065 483071
      482076 479079 474082 464082 460084 459088 456094 451092
      447095 439095 437104 438113 440117 442122 439128 436139
      436145 438150 442152 444155 448163 441179 439184 438190
      438201 441207 441211 435215 428219 427223 427229 425234
      420235 418237 417243 418245 421247 428250 436253 446254
      459254 463253 466251 470245 471244 475246 479245 481240
      480233 478230 475226 471226 471222 474221 482220 489222
      493224 495227 501242 505248 506253 507259 510267 511272
      514271 518265 522256 523243 525238 527234 531224 534215
      536211 538204 540189 542172 543168
 0.01 490193 490188 488185 485184 483179 480177 477174 475173
      472172 469175 467179 464183 466187 466195 466200 468205
      471204 474202 480202 484199 487197 490193
 0.01 448994 447982 441975 438975 435972 433963 422957 418957
      415956 408953 376952 365947 354938 344927 334918 322914
      315913 311917 307912 302905 297899 293896 286898 284899
      284904 287913 289920 307945 310951 312959 312971 308978
      300988 288996 278002 267010 262014 259020 263033 266038
      271044 277046 280050 285056 293056 299054 302056 308053
      312048 321038 330036 340036 349036 352041 354044 355050
      355051 359053 364054 367051 372051 375050 378047 380043
      381040 380029 382024 385021 391020 394017 398016 402015
      405013 408011 411007 414004 419002 421999 424998 429997
      448994
 0.25 486643 484640 480639 473639 456646 448651 440658 424673
      408687 401693 392701 378715 367727 367733 368737 373741
      380742 388741 394746 399752 401758 401761 400771 400775
      402778 405781 409781 422784 430780 437772 443765 448758
      472725 477717 482708 486699 489687 491677 490665 486643
 0.25 535196 538179 539163 538137 536124 534110 532098 531087
      528074 526064 521054 518052 515054 507070 498070 494072
      491077 491092 489095 486095 479090 473089 469089 465090
      463094 463100 461111 458120 455123 452128 448134 447138
      448142 451146 453147 458141 463136 471132 478131 482132
      486134 489138 490142 494149 498158 505177 508185 514194
      518202 522206 526206 530204 533200 535196
 0.25 468240 468234 464232 461229 461225 461220 457218 451217
      443217 440218 436221 435223 435228 437234 436242 441246
      448246 456245 463243 468240
 0.25 391979 388972 384973 383976 382980 381976 376975 366965
      361962 353960 347956 342950 338946 332944 328944 326947
      327957 326966 324972 320980 316986 312990 307994 295002
      289006 286008 284012 281018 280023 282025 285031 290035
      299033 305030 317022 324020 329019 333019 342021 348021
      358021 367019 372015 375007 381992 382987 384985 390984
      391982 391979
 0.50 483652 481647 478646 472646 465648 458650 451654 444660
      430673 403695 396703 391708 388714 386718 386722 392726
      397729 410732 416736 418739 418743 411756 410766 411773
      416775 421775 425773 433766 437761 443754 448747 465720
      475704 479697 483687 485680 485669 483652
 0.50 536181 537175 537168 537161 535141 531123 525110 519095
      516089 515085 511086 506081 505087 507105 508112 504115
      498113 493109 482103 473106 470111 470117 479125 490133
      492138 495144 502159 503165 507173 513185 516191 519193
      523195 528194 532190 535185 536181
 0.50 463238 461233 458233 455233 452232 450231 447233 446233
      443235 442236 440239 442242 445242 448242 449242 451242
      454241 457241 457240 460239 463238
 0.50 449225 449221 448220 447220 445221 442221 439222 442226
      444227 447227 449225
 0.50 349989 343976 344970 344965 343960 340958 335957 333957
      333970 323985 319993 318996 313999 304001 297006 291012
      290015 292018 293021 296024 299026 301025 308020 314015
      322009 337007 344001 347998 349992 349989
 1.00 477663 472660 468658 462658 457658 454659 450662 444668
      432678 419688 414692 409698 404705 400704 403711 400713
      404715 413713 420713 424714 429719 432726 439731 434744
      434748 436750 438746 443741 447735 462713 468705 471700
      474694 477688 479679 479673 477663
 1.00 534175 534166 534161 533145 530140 527140 524139 518136
      513135 509135 507133 504130 499121 496120 493122 496126
      498132 501133 504136 501146 503153 508163 510170 513175
      516174 518172 520172 525176 530179 534175
 1.50 475679 473673 469670 464669 460672 453679 446687 445692
      447697 443704 440711 444717 451717 456713 463705 467699
      471692 474682 475679
 1.50 529165 529160 526153 520150 518148 512145 509147 506145
      506150 508154 511157 517162 520163 525165 528168 529165

$$