Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 221851
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 23/0000 UTC THRU APR 24/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NEW ENGLAND...

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE HANDLING THE H5 TROF LIFTING THRU NEW
ENGLAND IN VERY SIMILAR FASHION..WITH THE LAST PIECE OF S/WV
ENERGY WHICH IS NOW SWINGING THRU THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FORECAST
TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE ENTIRE TROF ALONG WITH THIS LAST S/WV SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST LATER WEDNESDAY.  A SLUG OF SEASONABLY HI PWS IS BEING
PULLED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AHEAD OF THIS H5 TROF AND THE
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT..AND THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH
STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS/DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION..WITH
0.25-0.50+ INCH WATER EQUIVALENTS LIKELY FROM NH INTO MUCH OF ME.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE PASSAGE OF THE H5 TROF THRU THIS REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW REGIME TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING..WHICH WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY AN
EVEN BETTER ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT H5 TROF LATER TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE TERRAIN ENHANCED PRECIPITATION FROM THE OR
AND WA COASTAL RANGES INTO THE CASCADES..WITH MANUAL QPF LEANING
TOWARDS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 QPF SOLUTION.


...INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE ALSO IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF THE H5 TROF NOW COMING INTO THE WEST COAST
REGION..WITH THIS TROF FORECAST TO REACH THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  PRETTY IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/MID
LEVEL DYNAMICS PUSHING THRU THE NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT SOME MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN MT INTO NORTHWESTERN WY..WITH
RAPIDLY COLLAPSING THICKNESSES FAVORING A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  DOWNSTREAM..SUFFICIENT HEIGHT FALLS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AND COMBINE WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF HIGHER PWS TO PRODUCE INCREASING
RAINS/CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF OCCLUDED AND COLD FRONTS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE DRY LINE THRU THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
 TOOK A COMPROMISE MODEL QPF SOLUTION UP NORTH BETWEEN HEAVIER
NCEP AND LIGHTER NON-NCEP SOLUTIONS..WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AREAL
AVERAGE AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DRY LINE.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 24/00Z
 0.01 554144 553138 554133 556119 557112 558103 559087 557070
      554058 550044 546033 540016 532001 528991 522981 512967
      502956 497948 491941 483932 476924 469917 462912 455905
      447900 441894 434890 427887 420886 416886 413889 411891
      411896 412908 415917 417921 416924 410931 407936 402940
      398949 393961 387969 385973 382974 375978 360983 326994
      319996 311000 303003 295008 291012 290017 292023 294025
      318023 327023 336021 353018 363016 371014 388011 389014
      387015 383017 375019 371021 369026 371030 375031 387031
      391030 394030 400030 410028 414027 418024 420021 420015
      418012 418009 423009 427011 431011 434014 451020 454023
      457027 460030 462035 466056 468062 468069 460074 450058
      448051 445048 439048 436052 435059 436066 438071 439074
      444076 449083 449087 446089 441088 438089 431088 428085
      426084 424089 427098 427101 423102 419104 417106 414105
      412094 409087 408085 409082 417076 418067 416063 409056
      380064 375063 371063 367063 369067 373071 373078 375082
      379083 386088 389091 393092 397091 400090 403091 404095
      404098 402104 400108 396111 388116 387125 389128 392127
      394128 399131 403133 409134 411136 410138 409142 404151
      400155 395154 398162 399166 402167 406170 409171 413172
      416170 424167 429164 432161 435160 437163 441166 443169
      444193 445196 447198 453199 459193 462190 466187 474186
      475186 476189 478192 479195 483193 485193 486197 483201
      481203 477204 470205 464207 457209 450210 441211 436213
      432215 423219 421225 418228 407231 400237 398247 400256
      410266 418271 425273 429273 438273 444272 453270 457271
      460271
 0.01 460271 469274 474278 476281 481284 486288 489291 491291
      498292 501291 504288 509283 514279 516275 517270 519267
      519259 520255 519250 513236 509227 507225 507219 510215
      514217 518223 526225 531222 533221 536217 539211
 0.01 518681 517668 516660 514655 508642 503635 498628 489627
      486627 482628 474631 467635 457639 447645 440652 436656
      432658 428659 423662 414665 412668 408669 400672 392678
      386680 381683 377685 373688 365694 359698 352704 347710
      343715 337722 324737 316750 310757 308765 308771 310775
      317779 318777 320779 319785 316795 314803 320809 324804
      327796 331789 336781 341772 348766 357762 360759 366758
      380751 388749 392746 398745 411742 415744 414750 415761
      415769 414774 410781 406782 403785 389794 386799 385802
      390801 395799 400798 404799 411803 417809 421808 424810
      470759 480745 492727 503715 508709 513702 515696 516690
      518681
 0.25 542168 543157 543142 542127 541116 540104 541090 541083
      541077 539067 538059 535049 531039 527029 523022 518015
      514009 510004 491975 474952 469946 463941 455935 452935
      449937 451948 454956 456961 456966 456971 456976 459983
      460988 463992 470999 476004 481010 485017 488024 490033
      493054 498077 496081 493082 488086 476091 463099 459101
      455100 453097 450095 447102 442101 439103 435109 435111
      438114 446127 449131 451137 452142 451149 451154 453158
      456160 460162 468164 475162 477160 478155 476146 480143
      485145 488148 491150 493148 493143 494140 497137 501138
      503141 506148 510166 512179 514184 517188 522192 528190
      534188 538183 542168
 0.25 506271 506263 505258 508257 508252 507243 504228 501222
      498216 494211 488207 478208 465211 455212 442215 438216
      433219 429224 430234 425235 419235 414239 412242 412247
      414253 420256 427259 435260 446260 458259 470259 477261
      485266 494273 498276 502277 505274 506271
 0.25 507667 506657 503648 500644 496641 491639 484640 479641
      472643 460649 455653 452657 449662 445668 437676 433680
      428686 422695 420701 421708 423716 426720 430724 436726
      441726 444726 446728 451729 457726 466719 472716 478714
      484712 488709 493704 497698 502687 506675 507667
 0.25 459177 458176 456175 456174 455172 455171 454169 453167
      452167 451168 450170 449173 450175 450178 452180 452181
      453182 455181 457179 459177
 0.25 422119 423114 421113 417113 414113 410112 407110 405112
      403116 404120 406121 409123 413122 415122 418121 420120
      422119
 0.25 428980 429975 427973 421971 416973 410976 405978 400981
      398986 399991 403992 406992 412990 417988 422985 426982
      428980
 0.25 355005 355000 353999 349999 347000 344000 340001 338002
      338006 340008 344007 347007 350007 353006 355005
 0.50 530170 531165 531160 528154 523142 523133 521127 516114
      513108 510103 506102 501105 500106 500110 502114 508128
      512139 516153 518161 521166 526170 530170
 0.50 533085 534069 533058 529048 526041 519025 514016 510009
      503005 499004 497008 496019 497028 503049 509068 514085
      517089 520093 522095 527095 530090 533085
 0.50 496262 497258 496255 493248 490243 485239 475230 470228
      472224 474223 479221 485222 491223 493220 491217 487213
      481211 470213 459213 449216 444217 438219 436226 437233
      434238 427238 421237 419237 417242 419247 427251 438253
      461252 473249 477250 483252 487256 490260 494263 496262
 0.50 500664 499657 497652 492648 488647 483647 479648 476651
      472660 467666 453676 447682 446685 445691 448693 453693
      451699 446705 445709 446712 451713 456711 462707 470702
      477698 481697 486694 491690 494686 496681 499672 500664
 0.50 495115 495107 491106 488106 483106 478106 475107 471111
      472116 477119 480120 485122 490123 493119 495115
 0.50 477135 481137 485138 487139 487138 485137 482136 480134
      477133 477134 477135
 0.50 479977 478972 476968 474964 471961 467958 464956 462959
      463964 463971 465976 467981 470982 474982 476982 479977
      479977
 0.50 461109 458106 455105 452107 449110 445108 441108 443112
      447114 450119 452119 455117 457112 461110 461109
 1.00 463241 463236 459233 455234 451235 447236 444239 443244
      446246 450246 454245 458244 461243 463241
 1.00 465224 466221 464218 461216 458216 456216 452218 450219
      449222 451223 455224 458226 461228 464226 465224

$$





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