Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 260549
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
147 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 26/1200 UTC THRU JUL 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


SOUTHWEST / ROCKIES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS SOMEWHAT SOUTHWARD, MOISTURE AND
RESULTANT QPF SHOULD SLOWLY LESSEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
SOUTHWEST.  THE LATEST GUIDANCE, MESOSCALE AND GLOBAL, SOMEWHAT
LOWERED AMOUNTS AND SHIFTED THE HIGHER MAXIMA SOUTHWARD, SO
FOLLOWED SUIT.


NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SHOULD HELP SPUR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE ACROSS
WESTERN SD WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE INITIATION OF AN
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX, GIVEN FAVORABLE PARAMETERS SUCH AS
2000+ J/KG CAPES, BROAD LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF 20-40 KTS, AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75".  LITTLE TO NO CAPPING
INVERSION APPEARS TO BE PRESENT, WHICH IMPLIES THAT THERE IS ROOM
FOR THE GUIDANCE TO TREND/SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD.  USED A COMPROMISE
OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, MESOSCALE AND OTHERWISE, TO COME UP
WITH THE INITIATION POINT.  GFS-BASED FORWARD PROPAGATION VECTORS
FROM THE 18-00Z CYCLES INDICATED MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF 20 KTS, SO ATTEMPTED TO MOVE THE SYSTEM ALONG
AT THAT RATE OF SPEED, WHICH IS QUICKER THAN SEEN IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AVAILABLE.  SHOULD ANY LINEAR/CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS
ORGANIZE WITHIN THIS AREA, FORWARD PROPAGATION COULD BE QUICKER
THAN EXPECTED DUE TO ASSOCIATED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT.  THE 06Z
WPC QPF ENDED UP NEARLY MIRRORING THE DAY 2 QPF FROM THE 25/12Z
CYCLE, WHICH WAS AN UPTICK FROM THE 00Z CYCLE.


SOUTHERN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY/
TN VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT...WHICH STALLS ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE TODAY.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE,
MODEST INSTABILITY (MUCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG), AND HIGH PW VALUES
(2-2.25") ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  THE LIMITING FACTOR IN
TERMS OF UPSCALE ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY WILL BE THE WEAK LOW
LEVEL INFLOW AND WEAK (<20 KTS) 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION.  MAXIMUM AREAL-AVERAGE TOTALS WERE KEPT BELOW AN INCH
AS A RESULT.  THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
(2-4")...WHICH GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WOULD FALL
VERY QUICKLY (I.E. WITHIN 2-3 HOURS). IN GENERAL, THE 06Z WPC QPF
PATTERN RESEMBLED THE MORE SOUTHERN GUIDANCE, SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF A
COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS.


SOUTH-CENTRAL TX EAST THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST/FL BOTH TODAY
AND TUE WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AT OR
ABOVE 2"...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A WEAK BUT EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.  SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING WILL BE MAIN TRIGGERS/FOCI FOR CONVECTION. ACROSS
FL...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
EASTERLY. USED A BLEND OF MOST RECENT GUIDANCE ALONG WITH
CONTINUITY IN THIS AREA.

ROTH/HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 559111 557108 554107 549107 545110 541116 534124 532122
      532117 533111 530095 528086 527082 527076 529069 530058
      529049 527042 525035 522030 520028 518027 514027 511025
      511018 509011 500002 495998 491998 484001 481000 479997
      476991 474984 474975 475964 476962 476957 476947 476927
      476917 476906 475897 473891 471873 469865 468856 469847
      471839 471831 472828 472823 473815 471809 468804 464806
      460810 458818 456823 453828 451836 450838 447838 439846
      439864 441872 442877 443880 447894 445909 443925 438938
      435943 430948 426949 422953 410959 399966 390972 393986
      393990 392993 391002 394008 397012 405021 413027 425036
      428040 434042 440045 444050 451058 441062 438062 436064
      436069 434071 434076 436076 440077 442079 449082 450090
      442090 437092 434097 433107 435112 439124 442130 444136
      446143 449144 451142 454136 456132 458135 459139 458143
      461146 478160 482166 484171 485175 484180 486187 485197
      480200 478207 479211 486212 490210 494210 496214 496224
      501236 508248 511252 516255 521253 524249 526239 524231
      522226 520218 521210 523205 529203 532200 532197 535190
      539183 540174 542165 547161 551157
 0.01 487694 485679 483664 480653 475644 469640 460641 456640
      451641 450645 449652 449675 450679 453683 455687 457695
      455705 449711 446715 445719 446725 451724 454725 459724
      462726 466723 469721 473718 479711 482708 484703 486699
      487694
 0.01 411103 412096 410091 404098 402099 399099 394098 388102
      384104 380107 377109 376114 375120 377123 381122 383118
      387111 391108 396108 400111 403109 407110 409105 411103
 0.01 406799 405794 404792 399789 396782 392777 389774 391771
      390767 389764 389754 389751 387749 383747 381745 378739
      376733 372726 368719 365715 362713 359713 355715 353717
      349722 346728 346737 347746 348756 348763 350784 352801
      351808 349814 341824 339831 337841 338857 339865 342872
      346876 349882 352901 349916 347924 345931 340943 333956
      331963 330965 329970 330974 331977 336981 339982 341981
      345981 346985 348989 350990 355994 361992 365988 372977
      377965 383949 386943 388937 391921 392914 393903 392881
      390864 390846 391836 393831 396824 400816 403808 406799
 0.01 404081 405068 405063 404058 401051 397048 392046 388046
      386043 386040 387036 386034 385029 382026 373026 367032
      360038 358039 355038 353035 349027 349021 348015 345013
      339011 329010 322007 320004 319997 320985 320960 320948
      318936 317926 318923 323923 332921 335918 337914 336909
      333905 327897 322889 320881 319877 320872 318862 316838
      315827 315820 312817 311815 313814 317812 324806 332793
      335791 338787 341778 342775 338771 335773 330774 323779
      316783 310788 304793 302797 298800 292804 289806 284806
      283804 287802 292795 289791 286790 278794 271798 264786
      257784 253786 249788 246792 244796 241803 238813 238819
      240823 241827 245830 248831 251829 256824 259820 263822
      270826 278829 278835 277838 272847 269853 265857 265862
      261879 258888 256897 256911 259921 262931 263934 263939
      262949 260959 260972 261977 262982 266987 267989 266992
      260992 257993 251994 240993 235999 234003 236005 249016
      264027 271030 281031 288035 295040 298043 297044 289041
      284039 281038 271037 257044 254042 249042 240042 233048
      229051 228056 231075 235082 242086 249089 256094 262099
      270104 275109 277119 279121 284124 289129 296135 300138
      306138 310137 312134 314132 316132 317127 312122 310120
      310117 313114 316106 315102 313098 311094 309092 303086
      298081 291077 284072 280069 279067 282066 287067 291069
      298073 313082 320098 324101 326103 325107 325115 328118
      332119 337119 341127 344131 346132 351131 353127 359123
      358118 356115 350110 348106 349102 352105 353109 357110
      359107 358102 360096 363093 370093 373092 374096 377099
      380097 383093 387091 396088 401085 404081
 0.01 264804 263803 261803 259804 258804 257805 256806 255808
      255810 255812 256812 257811 258810 259809 260808 262807
      263806 264804
 0.25 526177 527167 526159 525153 521146 512141 507137 501135
      494134 489137 491144 493150 495157 496161 495166 494171
      496178 501177 507177 512174 514172 516174 523181 526177
 0.25 521123 522117 522112 521108 520105 518103 515101 512102
      510105 510110 511114 512118 512121 513126 515127 518127
      519125 521123
 0.25 520078 520072 519066 516062 513061 506058 498054 493048
      490045 488040 485037 482037 479040 477044 473056 475069
      475081 477092 480097 482100 485103 490106 504114 509108
      508102 505097 501090 501083 503079 508080 512082 515082
      518080 520078
 0.25 467947 468936 468924 467913 465903 463896 462894 460896
      459898 457907 456918 455926 454936 455944 454954 444964
      438968 431971 417973 410973 406974 403977 400983 399991
      401999 404005 414015 418020 423025 433033 445041 449042
      452042 456036 457028 461018 462009 463998 463987 465976
      466961 467947
 0.25 392803 392797 391793 387785 382779 378779 374782 367797
      363804 361812 356819 351825 347831 346836 345842 347848
      348851 352853 356853 361853 363856 365860 366867 366874
      364884 363893 360905 357927 353963 366941 373929 377921
      380912 383904 385894 386884 385870 382848 383838 385829
      390817 392809 392803
 0.25 379056 378049 374046 367045 362045 356047 352051 348057
      352062 356067 358068 362067 368066 371066 373064 375059
      379056
 0.25 374774 374768 372763 369757 365748 361743 358741 355744
      356752 357761 358772 359781 361786 364789 367786 372779
      374774
 0.25 352117 351116 349114 347113 347112 346110 345109 345107
      344106 344105 343104 341104 341106 340107 341108 341109
      342111 342112 343113 344115 345115 347116 348116 349117
      350118 352117
 0.25 349081 347076 342072 340070 338072 333075 329078 328081
      329083 332088 335093 339098 341098 343096 342089 343085
      345083 349081
 0.25 335060 337058 336056 336055 334054 332054 330054 329054
      327054 325055 325056 324057 325058 325059 326060 328060
      330060 332061 334061 335060 335060
 0.25 320909 315900 312891 311884 312878 313864 300827 298823
      293820 284819 275817 264815 264818 266819 270820 279823
      286827 291828 295832 298834 297839 292847 284865 274881
      271889 267900 267911 269922 271932 273945 272952 271956
      269961 270965 274969 277971 280975 284976 292982 295985
      297987 300986 303982 304977 307966 310955 311944 308922
      309915 312912 316910 320909
 0.25 305034 306032 306030 306028 306026 305024 303025 302025
      302027 301029 301032 303033 304034 305034
 0.25 298101 295094 290088 284084 275084 270080 263074 255063
      249057 243053 238052 234053 232057 233062 242074 247079
      255083 262086 268091 273096 281101 287105 294102 297102
      298101
 0.25 291018 291017 289016 287016 285016 283016 282018 283020
      285021 287021 289021 290020 290019 291018
 0.50 522168 522166 521165 522168 522169 522168
 0.50 496072 496069 496068 494066 493063 491062 489062 488063
      487065 487068 487070 487073 488076 489076 490077 492077
      493079 494076 495074 496072
 0.50 451029 451019 452008 452997 450988 447983 444981 440981
      432982 424981 418979 410977 404980 402989 404996 408003
      416013 425020 430025 437028 441032 447035 450032 451029
 0.50 387811 385806 381806 377807 375811 373815 370820 369824
      372828 376829 380827 383823 385820 387815 387811
 0.50 370772 370770 370768 369766 369764 368763 367762 366761
      364761 363762 362762 362765 362767 362769 362771 363774
      363776 364778 365778 366779 368777 370775 370774 370772
 0.50 375911 376907 375902 374899 372898 371899 369903 368905
      367907 366912 366916 368919 371919 373918 374914 375911
 0.50 370055 372053 370051 368050 367050 363050 360050 357051
      354053 353055 354058 357058 359058 363057 365056 368055
      370055
 0.50 362825 361822 358822 356824 353826 351828 350831 349833
      349837 350840 352842 354841 355838 357836 359833 360830
      361827 362825
 0.50 310903 309892 308878 308866 307861 302859 297861 294864
      290872 285880 280888 274895 273900 272906 273919 276929
      277940 281952 282956 285959 289960 294959 298957 299952
      301941 303930 305918 310903
 0.50 283088 282088 281086 280086 279088 278090 278091 280091
      282090 283088
 0.50 244066 244064 244063 244062 243060 242059 241058 241057
      239057 238057 237058 236059 236061 237062 238063 240065
      241066 242066 244066 244066
 1.00 442014 441004 435997 429991 422987 414983 409984 407989
      408994 410998 415005 422011 428017 435021 440021 442017
      442014
 1.00 304901 304894 303888 301883 298882 291890 286898 284901
      285905 286910 287925 288931 292935 294940 294939 296934
      297927 298921 299914 299909 302904 304901
 1.50 434011 434007 432002 429998 426994 423992 419990 414991
      413995 415999 418003 421006 424008 427011 432013 434011
 1.50 296920 296919 293905 300898 296892 291896 290908 292916
      291918 292919 293920 294921 295921 296920
 2.00 426001 425001 424999 424001 425002 426001

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