Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 010608
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
107 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 01/1200 UTC THRU MAR 02/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTION OF BROAD
OVERRUNNING PATRN SPREADING EWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY ACRS THE OH
VALLEY AND MID ATLC/SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY 1 PD IN ADVANCE
OF RATHER QUICK MOVING S/WV ENERGY THAT WILL PUSH ACRS THE GT
LAKES REGION TOWARD WRN NY SUN NIGHT/MON MRNG.  LONGER DURATION OF
PCPN AND SOMEWHAT ENHANCED WLY UPSLOPE CONDS SHOULD SUPPORT HIEST
AMOUNTS ACRS WRN PA AS GENLY SUPPORTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
AMOUNTS THERE LIKELY TO EXCEED .75 INCH IN SPOTS.  A SECONDARY MAX
IS EXPECTED NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION INTO THE EXTREME SRN NEW
ENGLAND COASTAL AREA AS AREA OF STGR MSTR FLUX DVLPS AHEAD OF SFC
WV LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT.   WITHIN THIS AREA..WIDESPREAD SNOW ALONG
WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING THREAT EAST OF THE APLCNS IS LIKELY.  THE
NAM APPEARED TO BE SLIGHTLY ON THE HIER END OF QPF
GUIDANCE..OTHERWISE A GENL BLEND OF RATHER AGREEABLE MODELS QPFS
WAS USED.  SEE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON SNOW/ICE.

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY

STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
INTENSITIES FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE MS VALLEY.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY LARGE QPF AMOUNT AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES HERE WITH THE NAM CONEST BY FAR THE WETTEST
AND FARTHEST NW WITH HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS.  PART OF THE QPF
DIFFERENCES CAN BE EXPLAINED BY DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF
MSTR OFF THE WRN GULF WITH THE 00Z BRINGING GREATER THAN 1.5 INCH
PWS NWD TOWARD THE AR/LA BORDER WHICH IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
THE GFS AND 12Z ECMWF.  WITH THE NAM HAVING LITTLE SUPPORT FROM
OTHER MODEL SOLNS...HAVE DOWNPLAYED ITS HEAVIER AMOUNTS..BUT DID
GO HEAVIER THAN THE GFS GIVEN THAT IS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WETTER
FROM ITS PREVIOUS SOLN.  MAY NEED TO SHIFT HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS SWD
SOME ON FINAL BASED ON SOME OF THE 00Z HI RES GUIDANCE.

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION

THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL SINK
ONLY SLOWLY SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DAY 1.  AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL PERSIST
DAY 1 ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS CLOSED LOW FROM THE NORTHERN
BAJA/FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA---INTO THE SOUTHWEST---SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  STG 85H-7H SWLY FLOW TO THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPR LOW ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING JET DYNAMICS TO THE
EAST OF THE UPR LOW WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS IN THE FAVORED AREAS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM
INTO THE ROCKIES FROM WESTERN TO SW CO INTO NW NM.  AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS HERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE
MOGOLLON RIM AREA AND OVER 1 INCH OVER THE SAN JUANS.  ISOLD
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE PSBL IN THE MORE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS.
SEE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON WINTER PCPN

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 519271 521262 520256 521250 518246 514236 513231 515228
      518224 519216 521200 522191 521186 517177 511170 503165
      498164 496165 495173 496179 497186 496194 494199 490201
      482203 478203 474207 459211 457217 451217 444217 439219
      437222 436230 434235 426239 420244 417249 416255 418259
      422262 425263 429263 434264 438263 448264 454271 459278
      466285 477289 483286 486283 487277 486274 486270 488268
      491271 494280 497286 499288 505289 508287 511286 513282
      517277 519271
 0.01 500245 497236 493228 496223 499222 495218 492214 487213
      484212 482214 480218 478220 469223 467227 469231 478232
      483234 484237 491244 494248 498246 500245
 0.01 479676 461651 456647 449647 436645 429644 424645 408655
      398662 388672 382679 378686 372699 368707 364713 358723
      353728 349736 346740 342744 340747 339751 340757 336764
      329770 317780 306788 298791 289791 283791 274792 269795
      268799 269802 261810 256814 255816 257820 260826 267831
      275833 280833 283834 290835 294836 297838 301842 305844
      309844 321843 326839 332836 338837 339840 337843 328854
      324859 320866 316875 314879 309879 296884 288885 283887
      275898 278904 278909 277911 273917 268921 266927 264930
      264935 268954 268958 272960 277966 286974 290975 294977
      295980 295985 297991 298996 301999 317020 321024 324031
      330036 337041 339041 342037 344035 345029 345024 344020
      342013 340005 339000 339996 339975 343969 345964 347954
      351948 352945 355941 359936 366923 375907 376905 378906
      379909 383916 383925 381934 377950 377955 378959 379963
      382963 385961 389961 393953 400943 403936 404932 405929
      407917 410908 413891 421857 424850 425842 428833 429829
      430823 432815 436814 440815 445814 450809 455803 456792
      456785 454782 450777 446773 445767 446763 449754 452747
      459734 462729 463725 463719 467711 472704 476689 479676
 0.01 480847 479830 475820 467826 462827 458830 452838 446848
      442851 442855 443856 447859 452860 460854 467853 476848
      480847
 0.01 415078 416066 416057 416049 413045 408042 399041 395041
      391038 384035 378036 367040 359051 358051 356056 356064
      354073 350079 340084 335088 331092 329098 328103 330107
      329111 328118 320126 316129 311132 301137 293140 289143
      285147 283154 289180 297181 302180 314179 317178 320180
      324185 328194 329203 333208 346212 355214 360217 365218
      362214 361206 358200 358195 360192 364191 367192 368194
      373200 377203 380201 390193 393186 394179 396167 396160
      394147 392137 396131 404124 406121 408117 410109 411103
      410098 409094 409090 411085 415078
 0.25 440679 439674 438671 434667 432664 429664 423667 415673
      404682 400686 397691 392702 387714 382724 370744 368757
      366768 363774 359778 350785 344790 341793 337797 336800
      338803 343803 347799 356792 360787 365784 374778 380779
      382786 382794 380799 375810 373816 371822 379831 386839
      393846 398851 401852 403850 407844 409838 413825 417812
      421801 423793 423785 425772 427765 429758 427751 425745
      424740 425737 425732 425728 426714 427707 430700 436691
      439685 440679
 0.25 405074 406070 406066 403063 399061 394060 386056 384056
      381059 378055 373054 366057 363062 362066 362072 363076
      365086 359092 350106 342101 338102 336106 336119 333127
      329135 324141 318147 310151 303155 301159 302163 309169
      318170 328170 336167 337163 336159 339156 343153 349150
      355149 360150 368151 373152 376152 380149 381144 381136
      382130 386121 388115 385113 381109 380105 381099 383095
      387093 389089 391085 395083 401079 405074
 0.25 358892 359887 358884 352884 341882 337882 332884 329887
      326891 312905 304911 299914 297916 294922 291925 288928
      287935 288941 290946 294949 299950 308955 316961 322961
      327959 330956 332952 343932 347923 351912 358892
 0.25 315981 316979 315979 314980 313981 312983 313984 314984
      315982 315981
 0.50 416712 416703 414696 411694 408694 403697 399702 397707
      395715 393720 391725 389732 389739 387747 386749 387753
      391756 396757 399753 407743 413733 416719 416712
 0.50 414793 414786 413781 409778 404779 397785 391792 386799
      384808 383813 388815 395817 399819 404818 409812 413802
      414793
 0.50 392075 393070 389068 385070 382069 377064 371061 368062
      367066 367070 369074 372082 375087 379088 382086 384084
      384081 385076 388075 392075
 0.50 376130 378120 374115 368112 360110 354111 349111 348109
      345107 342105 339107 339111 339118 339126 334139 330145
      328151 335151 342149 353144 363139 369137 374136 375134
      376130
 0.50 365103 365102 365101 363099 361098 360098 359100 359102
      359104 360105 361106 362107 364105 365103
 0.50 330166 331161 328157 324155 319155 315155 310156 307157
      307163 310165 315167 321167 326167 330166 330166
 0.50 343912 344907 343903 338899 332897 328900 318909 310920
      307924 301928 297932 296937 298941 300942 307944 315944
      321943 327939 332935 336930 339924 343912
 1.00 377078 377076 377073 377071 376070 375069 375068 374069
      373071 374073 374075 375078 376078 377078
 1.00 366124 362121 358116 351115 346113 343120 343129 343136
      345139 348139 352137 358134 362130 365126 366124
 1.00 328919 327915 324913 321915 319917 317924 315926 314930
      316934 319932 323930 326926 327921 328919
 1.50 358122 359120 358119 356119 354119 352118 350118 349119
      347121 347123 347125 347127 347129 347130 348132 349133
      351133 352132 353132 354131 355129 356127 357124 358122

$$




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