Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 191846
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
244 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 20/0000 UTC THRU OCT 21/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CA...

THE PATTERN FINALLY BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE THIS PERIOD SO THAT
THE MAJOR H5 TROF NOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MAKES IT JUST INLAND
BY MONDAY EVENING..IMPACTING THE THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DOWN INTO NORTHERN CA.  THE COMBINATION OF WHAT WILL
EVENTUALLY BE SOME SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS..A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH MUCH HIGHER PWS POOLING VICINITY OF THE FRONT..AT
LEAST AS IT MOVES ONSHORE..AND A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW REGIME INTO THE COASTAL AREA BEHIND THE FRONT..WILL
SUPPORT INCREASED RAINS FROM WESTERN WA/OR INTO NORTHERN CA..AND
IN PARTICULAR IN THE HIGHER COASTAL RANGES AND NORTHERN WA
CASCADES.   THE NAM QPF LOOKED A BIT TOO LIGHT IN NORTHERN
CA..WHERE THE STRONG H5 S/WV COMES ASHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD..OTHERWISE THE MODEL QPFS WERE GENERALLY IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND CLOSELY FOLLOWED.


...SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHWESTERN TX INTO PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...

IN THE NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THRU THE WESTERN STATES..THE
CLOSED H5 LOW INITIALLY VICINITY OF NORTHERN BAJA/NORTHWESTERN OLD
MEXICO IS FORECAST TO GET CLOSE TO SOUTHWESTERN TX BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM..A MODEST BUT PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE/PWS UP THE RIO
GRANDE INTO SOUTHWESTERN TX AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS HIGHER MOISTURE/LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND
GRADUALLY MORE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING H5
TROF WILL LEAD TO MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN NM INTO SOUTHWESTERN TX..WITH THE MAJORITY OF
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS OCCURRING ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE
RIO GRANDE FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE MID TO LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THERE WAS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODEL QPFS ON THIS
SCENARIO..AND STAYED CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF AT LEAST SOME 0.50-1.00+
INCH RAINFALL TOTALS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NM INTO SOUTHWESTERN TX.


...GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...

THE H5 TROF DIGGING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY THRU
THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY THIS PERIOD..ALONG WITH ITS
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT..WON`T HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH..SO
ANY RAINS EVEN GREATER THAN 0.10 INCH WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND FAR UPPER OH VALLEY..GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE VORT TRACK.  MODEL QPFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 21/00Z
 0.01 488613 486622 484628 482631 477638 469645 461650 458652
      453655 451657 445659 435662 428661 420659 413656 409655
      407651 408641
 0.01 523262 523253 521245 517233 513226 511219 514211 519210
      529219 532220 534219 537215 538211 538207 536200 534192
      530185 526180 521176 519175 517172 512170 509170 506171
      500175 493183 490188 485193 477198 467206 462207 457206
      456202 455199 456194 458189 458185 459180 458180 454181
      450185 447191 445194 443199 440205 434208 432209 428208
      422209 418206 392204 388205 387208 385211 386214 389218
      392220 391222 380224 376225 373225 368230 369233 373236
      375238 372240 369243 367251 370256 377258 380257 383258
      386258 390259 443265 448265 457267 469271 477274 482278
      489282 493286 501296 507299 512295
 0.01 525878 525870 522860 515851 506844 501841 496837 494835
      493830 491820 486808 482801 478798 474793 469786 465769
      462765 458760 456758 451759 444761 437770 421791 418796
      414800 410802 406800 404792 403783 401780 398778 395779
      393781 390785 385790 382795 379801 376808 377816 381821
      384820 386822 390828 390839 389843 389848 390853 391855
      396858 403857 407857 410855 415853 421852 425853 427855
      435855 443865 447867 449866 454865 457867 457871 459874
      459878 460888 459894 456901 458903 462903 464898 468892
      472888 473881 471873 470870 471865 473863 477863 485862
      487864 491864 497868 501871 504875 507883 512889 516892
      521890 523888 524884 525878
 0.01 389861 387856 385854 383857 381861 380866 378871 377875
      375880 376884 379882 383880 384877 386872 388868 389861
      389861
 0.01 231989 232997 234001 237003 248010 258018 260022 257025
      253030 252035 253038 256047 264056 268062 272068 286076
      292081 299085 306095 307099 310102 314099 315094 319095
      325099 336109 342109 345107 345101 352097 356098 359100
      363103 365101 360096 362092 361090 355084 347073 349067
      351065 356061 360060 364059 369066 375082 378083 381081
      385077 385069 384065 381064 376063 374059 374056 377054
      378050 376046 369043 363045 358048 352053 348054 346053
      345050 344046 344041 345035 346033 348024 349018 346016
      339015 333016 312015 304014 296011 286001 285998 284993
      284983 292971 292958 287956 281959 274955 271959 271965
      270968 264972 257976 252977 250975 245970 242964 238961
      233964 231971
 0.01 372947 371938 366932 361927 359930 359936 357941 357945
      357952 357963 357972 361972 364970 368965 370956 370951
      372947
 0.01 301819 299816 298809 297796 294786 285783 282782 281779
      281775 279774 277776 275780 275787 275793 275800 277805
      278811 282813 287815 292818 296819 299821 301819
 0.01 302850 302848 301848 300846 298846 296846 294846 292847
      290847 289849 289850 290851 291852 292853 293854 294854
      296853 298853 300851 302851 302850
 0.25 473619 471622 469625 468627 467629 464632 462634 459636
      456638 453639 449640 446640 442640 440639 438638 436637
      434634 433633
 0.25 530207 530205 529202 529200 527199 525200 525201 524203
      525205 525206 526208 527209 527210 528210 529209 530207
 0.25 518271 519264 519258 518248 515238 512230 508222 504215
      500209 492203 488201 484202 478205 472210 465213 458215
      451215 444216 436218 429221 426223 426228 426232 421231
      415230 413227 410226 409229 403232 397235 395240 397243
      403249 406252 411252 419254 427254 442252 458252 467253
      475256 482261 488269 492276 497282 503288 508288 510283
      511276 514275 518271
 0.25 474828 473821 470813 467807 464804 459802 451802 445803
      438805 431806 431809 428814 430819 433821 437819 441818
      444819 447824 450828 455831 467831 472834 474828
 0.25 409220 408218 406217 405215 403214 401214 400216 400218
      401219 402220 404221 406221 407222 409220
 0.25 333079 334075 332071 329066 324053 322046 319040 315036
      308032 302030 298026 295021 291014 287010 283006 270001
      260994 255991 248988 244988 241990 238994 243999 247002
      254005 261006 269006 272008 273011 274020 275027 277034
      277041 276048 277055 279061 284066 296072 301076 309079
      321081 329083 333079
 0.25 292803 292801 291799 290798 288798 287799 288802 289803
      290805 291806 291805 292804 292803
 0.50 516267 517261 517255 515247 513237 510230 506222 503217
      498211 490207 486206 482206 477210 472216 466219 461223
      460228 458229 450232 445233 431236 424236 420234 415232
      411232 408235 406241 408245 411247 417249 423250 429250
      443246 456245 463245 472249 479252 484257 488263 493271
      497278 501282 504284 506283 508272 516267
 0.50 488236 489234 489231 488230 487228 485227 484226 482225
      480226 479228 480230 480231 481233 481234 482236 483237
      484238 486237 487236 488236
 0.50 313073 314069 314066 313064 314060 309049 309045 312041
      311038 309037 304035 292033 289033 286039 283049 285054
      285060 289063 293065 302070 308072 313073 313073
 0.50 289020 289018 288016 287015 286014 285013 284012 283012
      282013 282014 282016 283018 284020 285021 286022 287023
      288022 289022 289020
 1.00 510254 512247 511241 507232 503223 501220 498216 495215
      490216 484214 487221 492230 495239 500246 507253 510254
 1.00 501274 501269 499263 498260 495254 494251 491245 488243
      487245 487249 488254 490258 492262 495267 496270 499274
      501274
 1.00 480244 480241 480240 480239 480236 479235 478233 478232
      476231 475231 473232 471233 471234 470235 470238 470239
      471241 471242 473243 474244 476244 478245 479244 480244
 1.00 460238 460236 458235 457235 455235 453235 451236 450236
      448236 448237 449238 451239 453239 454239 456239 456238
      458238 460238 460238
 1.00 430243 428241 424239 423238 419237 416236 414237 414240
      415242 418244 420245 423246 425246 428245 430243
 1.50 507245 507240 505234 503230 502225 500221 495219 492222
      493227 495232 498236 501240 503243 506246 507245
 1.50 477238 477235 476234 475235 474236 474237 475239 477239
      477238
 2.00 502233 502231 501230 501227 500224 499224 498222 496222
      494222 494223 494225 494227 494228 495230 497231 498232
      500233 501235 502233

$$





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