Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 231834
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
233 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 24/0000 UTC THRU JUL 25/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC---NY STATE INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND

WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF PUSHING EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN
LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST/NEW
ENGLAND REGION THIS PERIOD.  TWO WELL DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATIONS
IN THIS TROF WILL HELP TO FOCUS BOTH A POTENTIAL NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN PRECIP MAX ACROSS THESE AREAS IN A BROAD REGION OF WELL
DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES.  THE VORT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY LATE AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS A
SOUTHERN PRECIP MAX ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.   THE LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE FROM THE ARW---NMMB AND
NSSL WRF ARE ON THE FARTHER NORTHERN END WITH THIS MAX FROM FAR
NORTHEAST PA---THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND---WHILE THE IN HOUSE HI RES MEANS...HREF MEANS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE NON-CAMS FAVOR A FARTHER SOUTHWARD AXIS.  AT THE
MOMENT---WPC QPF LEANED TOWARD THIS FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTION FOR
THE SOUTHERN MAX FROM IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST PA---CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN NJ---SOUTHERN NY STATE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ALSO LIKELY INTO NORTHERN NY STATE AHEAD
OF THE SHARP NORTHERN STREAM VORT MOVING FROM THE UPPER LAKES INTO
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND NORTHERN NY STATE THIS PERIOD.

CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS---SOUTH OF THE OH VALLEY---TN
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING WEST TO EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND TO THE NORTH OF THE OH
VALLEY WILL BE PUSHING ONLY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OH RIVER
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION
LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT DAY 1--ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH DETAILS.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR AREAL
AVERAGE MODERATE AMOUNTS---WITH LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVIER TOTALS WHERE
CONVECTION MAXIMIZES.

CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST

THE WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN GULF
COAST EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SHEARED WITH TIME DAY 1.  PW VALUES
INITIALLY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF
COAST---WITH A TREND TOWARD LOWER PW VALUES PUSHING NORTHWARD OFF
THE NORTHERN GULF LATER IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROF
WEAKENS.  ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY ALONG
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST REGION INTO NORTHERN FL WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

SOUTHWEST U.S./SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN

THE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE MONSOONAL PW VALUES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. DAY 1.  THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAXIMA AHEAD OF
VORTS LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION.  WITH PW VALUES 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN NM INTO LARGE PORTIONS
OF AZ.  THE CLOSED LOW MOVING INLAND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
PERIOD WILL HELP DRAW THE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES FARTHER
NORTHWARD WITH TIME DAY 1 INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND WEST
NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA--INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THESE AREAS.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 25/00Z
 0.01 441630 447639 451648 455661 459671 463682 467692 472706
      474713 475723 477727 478734 480749 483758 485770 484774
      485780 483789 484797 483804 483813 480817 477820 476826
      476833 473836 464840 458845 452845 447844 442844 437843
      430838 425826 422817 420815 416817 408822 400826 395827
      392829 386837 378855 376865 374876 371900 371914 370928
      370944 369950 369959 368984 367009 367015 369020 370025
      373030 378036 382040 387042 396045 401046 405048 413054
      415057 416061 415070 415073 413075 407082 404086 401092
      403098 408097 410096 411099 412108 408115 405118 401120
      396130 395135 399138 418137 422138 425142 426144 424150
      420161 417164 415169 418181 423191 424193 423197 421203
      418204 412203 405189 398183 394181 391178 381161 371145
      366144 362141 357142 353143 349145 344145 337143 333145
      329149 325147 320143 317140 315135 313129 312124 300110
      294105 287100 280095 273091 265087 258084 244073 238068
      233061 230057 228053 228046 230042 237035 246039 264041
      279046 288049 294050 310038 313035 318034 329035 331031
      334025 336021 336015 333004 329001 325996 319974 315975
      312975 311965 309956 304950 293937 290933 288929 284918
      281907 281895 281881 280869 276859 272851 267841 262838
      259833 256830 253828 249829 243827 238822 234817 234810
      235805 237802 242800 246800 249804 251808 251814 255817
      261817 264815 262813 258812 254810 255806 255800 258797
      270795 276794 282795 287795 291791 297783 307767 311762
      316755 328742 339730 350717
 0.01 350717 354710 358705 361697 362690 365683 369675 374671
      378670 382667 386661 391655 395649 400645 403646 407643
      408641
 0.01 562085 563077 563068 563052 563035 563021 561010 560003
      558997 553990 548987 541992 538996 536002 534013 527015
      522023 518036 517064 516072 516075 513076 510079 507082
      504092 503106 504111 503119 501125 500133 500146 498157
      497169 500175 502179 509186 512189 515191 519199 525208
      530213 534212 536207 539197 542180 543175 546172 549161
      554131 558104 562085
 0.01 402202 400197 396193 389190 384188 377185 375183 372183
      371188 376192 381196 386199 391202 397205 402202
 0.01 342179 343173 343168 340164 336162 331160 328158 319153
      312149 309147 305148 304153 306157 310163 319167 325169
      328171 333173 336175 339179 342179
 0.25 554111 556091 556075 555058 554051 552045 549045 545049
      541059 535069 529077 526081 524087 520100 516115 514129
      514135 516143 519154 521161 523167 530174 535174 539171
      541166 543160 547146 551132 554111
 0.25 474765 472754 469743 461720 457712 452706 449703 447699
      443691 440681 438671 439658 438651 435647 429643 424644
      420647 408657 396668 389676 384683 374697 365710 357723
      343736 334747 328754 325762 320779 322783 327785 331783
      334779 339773 343766 347758 351753 355750 359749 361749
      365747 370747 373750 376763 379775 380785 380794 378798
      375801 370807 364812 357819 354823 352827 349835 346844
      348853 349862 352863 355862 357859 363854 368846 372837
      381824 386818 392812 399807 405802 411796 419792 430803
      439817 443824 449829 458826 462824 466821 468817 469812
      469807 468802 469798 471795 473791 474785 474773 474765
 0.25 388068 388061 385057 377050 373047 367046 356047 352048
      349052 347054 344054 337053 332053 329057 324065 321067
      316068 308068 302066 293062 285059 239051 236054 236057
      240061 244063 252069 260072 268077 277084 284088 293092
      303096 306101 308105 311110 314114 320119 323123 327126
      334127 338130 347135 356135 365131 368127 366122 360115
      357111 356107 357099 355094 356090 359087 365087 369088
      373091 378092 382088 384084 384079 388068
 0.25 364914 365905 365897 363889 362885 359885 355888 353888
      351885 349881 345879 337886 333885 331883 327879 321869
      315861 312856 310851 309841 309832 311827 312820 311809
      307806 302803 296802 288803 285806 284810 286814 285817
      282819 277820 273823 270828 273833 277837 282840 285844
      287849 288856 290872 288888 286899 286905 288912 290917
      293922 297926 301925 303922 305920 307922 310927 314930
      318930 323930 326927 328921 332915 337906 339900 340897
      342896 345897 346899 348905 349914 348924 343949 342956
      344961 347967 350968 352966 354960 355952 358941 361925
      364914
 0.25 350064 350062 348061 347061 346061 345063 344063 343065
      343067 344069 346069 348068 349066 350065 350064
 0.25 332947 333945 333943 333941 333939 332936 332935 331934
      330932 329932 328933 327934 327937 327939 327941 327943
      328945 328947 329947 330949 330950 331949 332949 332947
 0.50 551118 552105 552094 552084 551078 550076 547075 544077
      540081 534085 530089 527097 525105 523114 521125 521133
      522141 524150 527156 530159 532160 536158 541152 544146
      547137 549129 551118
 0.50 468776 468761 465743 462732 458724 451718 441714 436709
      434693 433665 431660 428657 424655 420654 414657 411660
      404668 397676 392682 371714 368724 369732 371738 376747
      379757 383768 388778 389784 389789 388795 389799 394800
      399798 404795 407791 410788 414786 422781 427781 431783
      438789 441793 442797 440802 441808 446817 449819 454817
      457813 459808 459802 461799 467787 468776
 0.50 379080 379078 380076 380074 380073 379071 378069 376067
      375066 373066 372066 372068 373070 373071 373073 373075
      373077 373080 374081 374082 375083 377084 378083 379081
      379080
 0.50 355129 356122 354116 350106 343087 340082 335078 332076
      327077 315077 307074 303074 298072 294069 289066 285066
      281068 280072 281077 284081 289085 292086 299087 304089
      309092 311095 313101 315106 318110 327116 335121 342128
      345130 351131 355129
 0.50 306861 306855 305851 303842 302830 302821 299818 296817
      288820 280822 277825 278829 284834 289839 293847 295855
      298872 294889 293894 293898 295900 297897 302880 306861
      306861
 1.00 457774 456762 454748 452740 447734 441730 438730 433731
      428736 425741 423745 420747 417748 415743 412735 414729
      421715 422707 422696 423676 420668 416668 413671 396695
      394698 394703 395710 395716 395719 391720 386721 381727
      381731 381737 384745 388749 394753 400759 404764 408768
      413768 415767 425764 431766 436768 449771 453774 456775
      457774
 1.00 345116 347113 347110 344105 343102 340098 336097 334099
      331098 327100 327103 329107 332110 335112 338115 341118
      345116 345116
 1.00 297834 297832 295828 294826 292824 289823 285825 285827
      286829 288831 289833 291835 294836 297836 297834
 1.50 441747 440745 439745 437744 436744 435744 434744 432747
      432749 433750 433751 434754 435755 436756 437756 438755
      439755 440753 440752 441750 441748 441747
 1.50 419709 418700 417691 415684 410685 407691 406698 406704
      407710 408716 412722 416717 419712 419709
 1.50 409744 408740 406733 404729 402726 399730 397730 393728
      391732 392739 394743 396747 399750 403752 406752 408751
      409745 409744

$$




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