Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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502
FXUS04 KWBC 011843
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 PM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 02/0000 UTC THRU MAY 03/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

......LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA...TN
VALLEY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
SOUTHEAST/CAROLINAS...

AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTS IN AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEEP LAYER
JET.  AS THIS OCCURS A SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST BAND OF 700 MB
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND IN THE
COUPLED 300 MB JET REGION AND THEN MOVES EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...INCLUDING ALREADY WET LOUISIANA...AND THEN
CONTINUES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST MON.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN LA INTO THE
SOUTHEAST MON WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS.

WITH THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA HAVING LOWERED FFG
VALUES----ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.  SEVERAL MODELS ARE
SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND 700 MB CONVERGENCE AXIS...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED 300 MB DIVERGENCE MAXIMA OVERHEAD IN THE COUPLED JET
REGION IN THE SOUTHEAST MON.  MANUAL PROGS BLENDED THE
UKMET/GFS/CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM...WHICH HAD A SIMILAR
AXIS/ORIENTATION OF RAINFALL.
THE 12Z NAM WAS FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH ITS PRECIP AXIS IN
AR/WESTERN TN AND WAS GIVEN THE LEAST WEIGHTING CONSIDERING ITS
FRONTAL AXIS/ORIENTATION WAS SIMILAR TO THE OTHER MODELS.

IN THE CAROLINAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...CONFLUENT LOW-MID LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ECMWF
AND GEFS MEAN INDICATING 1.5-1.75 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES.  MANUAL QPF USED THE HIGHER ECMWF/CANADIAN REGION GEM
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE HIGHER AVAILABLE MOISTURE PLUS FAVORED PEAK
PERIOD FOR INSTABILITY.

...LOWER LAKES---OH/PA/NY/NEW ENGLAND...

AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF OHIO INTO PA BY MON
MORNING AND REFORMS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MON. A CORRESPONDING
700 MB WAVE CROSSES FURTHER NORTH AND LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE WAVE WILL ACCENTUATE LIFT FROM THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT
AND ACROSS NY STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MON.
THE MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST A STRIPE OF HALF TO ONE INCH
FROM THE LOWER LAKES AND INTERIOR NY/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND WAS USED. THIS IS NORTH OF THE NAM AXIS
OF QPF WITH THE CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM JOINING THE GFS/UKMET WITH
AN AXIS FURTHER NORTH...ALONG THE AXIS OF STRONGER 700 MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE.

...SOUTHWEST---SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

THE INITIALLY WELL DEFINED CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.  ENHANCED 700 MB MOISTURE WITH RH VALUES OF 70-90 PERCENT
ARE FCST TONIGHT INTO MON OVER THE RANGES OF SOUTHWEST CO...WHERE
SYNOPTIC AND TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT COMBINE TO PRODUCE MORE VALLEY
SHOWERS/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.  AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER
MON MORNING AS THE UPPER DIVERGENCE/LOWER CONVERGENCE MAXIMA
WEAKEN.  AN UPTICK IN AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE OCCUR WITH DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION MON.  GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE RATES OF 7-8
DEG C/KM OVER SOUTHERN CO/NORTHERN NM MON...WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE. MANUAL PROGS USED A MULTI-MODEL AND SREF MEAN BLEND.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

PETERSEN

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 442630 454639 464653 469659 471663 474663 486665 491670
      496675 498678 497686 495696 493705 491714 490718 488720
      477731 475742 470750 463762 460763 456766 453773 448789
      445797 444805 440820 436835 434845 435857 435871 434876
      434883 433897 430900 427905 425909 422912 418912 414914
      412917 409919 408922 409926 412926 422919 428918 429916
      433918 438923 440925 439929 432935 429936 426940 428945
      426947 422947 419950 416954 409956 402959 395959 385959
      380959 379962 379965 382979 385988 387995 392011 388032
      387037 385039 378042 373040 367037 364031 361023 358007
      353002 352999 349998 345001 340006 332019 327024 321029
      314033 308035 294038 288041 281041 274039 268038 257029
      252024 252016 248009 242006 234002 233999 232993 231987
      235981 240976 245972 255964 258958 261954 261948 260913
      260903 264897 269890 274884 277877 282872 284868 284863
      285857 285847 281842 268833 258828 254824 251818 249810
      248804 251803 258797 264794 268792 271794 278796 291800
      298801 305799 308797 312795 318791 321784 324778 328766
      331759 335752 345739 361716 369702 376691 380677 381670
      383662 384656 387652 393645
 0.01 492005 489990 486977 482974 480972 477972 472972 469972
      467974 460973 454974 450976 445976 433980 426987 419996
      417001 416008 416012 418015 421020 425023 428027 431040
      433045 434047 437047 448044 453044 457040 464033 469026
      468023 469021 471019 475016 478015 481015 485013 487011
      490008 492005
 0.01 459235 457231 454233 450232 450227 450223 452220 450219
      448221 447228 446234 449237 453236 457236 459235
 0.01 437236 435231 436227 427220 420219 418217 415213 414207
      412202 408203 404204 401200 397194 392194 388192 387188
      390185 389180 395182 396176 401167 406163 408168 412167
      413169 417161 419158 417153 414148 410145 405146 402141
      399138 394141 388139 386135 388129 391126 398124 399127
      403130 407130 406124 401117 409110 409103 406100 403106
      401106 399103 396099 397092 401083 402080 402075 401067
      399063 397056 395052 389050 383049 379046 373047 367047
      363049 359053 356051 355044 353042 348041 344043 341046
      337050 336053 332053 329053 327055 328057 332058 336064
      335070 334076 332081 332087 334092 340113 343123 344128
      346132 348134 348138 348141 350142 351144 355144 353141
      355138 361139 364142 368142 370147 373150 375152 373154
      371156 369153 369149 367148 363150 360153 354148 350155
      355160 356162 359163 363162 368166 369172 371172 377171
      382170 385174 384177 384181 383185 380184 378181 378175
      374177 368177 361176 362172 364171 363168 359169 359181
      359186 361190 367196 376201 380206 384208 389211 395214
      405219 410219 413222 411227 406229 401227 399230 401235
      405238 409239 412237 417238 421237 426240 431240 435239
      437236
 0.01 392103 392101 391100 390099 389098 390095 389093 387094
      385095 385097 383096 382097 383098 385097 385099 386102
      388104 389105 391105 392103
 0.01 385111 384108 385106 384105 383106 384108 384111 385111
      385111
 0.01 391890 386883 383879 380884 374891 369896 366901 364906
      363916 360926 357936 354946 354952 352956 356956 359953
      362950 366949 375949 373945 375943 381922 381919 379916
      378916 375918 375916 376912 376909 379907 382904 385900
      391890
 0.01 377110 377103 374098 374092 371087 371080 371077 369075
      366075 363079 360080 361083 364086 369089 372093 368096
      366097 368099 371104 372109 369118 371123 373118 373114
      374111 376111 377110
 0.01 376060 375056 374054 368055 365054 361056 357055 356058
      352062 350068 349073 352073 355071 358073 360071 358069
      359062 359058 363061 368058 373059 376060
 0.01 356113 356111 355109 353111 354113 355113 356113
 0.01 343182 344180 344178 344175 344173 343171 343170 341170
      340170 340172 340175 339177 340177 340179 340181 341182
      343183 343182
 0.01 353960 354958 352956 350958 350960 352962 353960
 0.25 482690 481685 480680 475676 469672 464670 453667 442663
      437661 432657 424650 421650 417651 412651 408651 405653
      402657 397663 394669 387682 376706 369718 362727 353748
      344758 341764 337772 337780 335786 329797 325802 321806
      314812 304821 304824 307827 311829 317833 320838 320845
      318853 316859 312865 305873 288889 281897 275908 273915
      273923 271942 269970 270973 271978 271980 270982 267982
      264984 262984 260982 261975 259971 256972 250979 249982
      250986 252992 255000 259005 266014 273017 278019 290021
      295020 300017 308009 312003 315998 317991 317983 318975
      321967 333945 338935 344924 350913 355900 358894 361888
      367873 377848 384836 387831 390830 391833 395844 395860
      397868 400875 404880 410885 413886 416884 420878 422871
      422862 434804 438791 442773 444764 447758 450752 453747
      461738 468730 473719 478704 482690
 0.25 399749 399746 397745 395745 394747 395750 395752 396752
      398753 399751 399749 399749
 0.25 394080 393079 393078 392076 390077 389077 389079 390080
      391081 393081 394080
 0.25 381076 381074 380071 378070 376071 376073 375075 376077
      377078 379077 381076
 0.50 472698 472691 470687 465681 460678 455675 448672 444673
      440675 436679 435688 435694 434699 432707 427722 426733
      424740 423749 423754 425759 425763 423766 418772 415779
      414788 415794 414799 412808 414813 416816 418821 418827
      420827 420822 422819 423809 424801 433787 435780 435769
      435758 439756 442750 446744 451736 456730 464720 468714
      470709 472698
 0.50 423672 421666 419662 416659 411658 406660 402664 397671
      393680 389689 381707 371725 367734 366739 370742 374742
      378741 383739 387736 396719 401711 404707 410706 419701
      422697 422692 423680 423672
 0.50 413849 414847 413844 413842 412840 411838 410837 409836
      407838 408840 408843 409845 409846 410847 411849 412849
      413850 413849
 0.50 390806 391801 390796 387790 384789 381790 375792 370800
      360807 345823 336828 333833 331839 330846 327852 321862
      314869 307877 298885 290891 286895 284900 281912 279927
      276940 276947 277954 280966 277971 275973 275977 274981
      270985 271987 274988 279986 283983 286978 292977 299974
      304971 307968 312957 317949 325939 331929 342911 353889
      358881 364869 372844 375834 379821 383817 387815 390810
      390806
 0.50 368773 367768 365764 359761 356759 352760 346765 344769
      344773 342781 341790 343794 346795 350793 353791 358787
      363782 367775 368773
 0.50 306998 304996 300997 298994 295989 291991 290997 289002
      288008 293009 296006 298004 304002 306998 306998
 0.50 277009 276006 275004 273001 271999 269998 266996 263998
      264002 265005 266007 268009 271010 274010 277009
 0.50 255988 255986 253984 253986 253988 255989 255988
 1.00 412673 411667 409667 406670 403674 401678 399683 399688
      402692 405691 408688 410684 412680 412675 412673
 1.00 365840 364836 360836 353838 341845 337850 334856 331863
      328869 323874 318879 308886 298897 295901 292908 290917
      288923 284937 283946 286952 292953 299951 305947 309941
      316929 324917 331908 338894 343881 351868 357857 365840
 1.00 353773 354771 353769 351769 350771 350773 352775 353773
      353773
 1.50 321902 317902 313904 306909 302916 297922 294931 292936
      292940 296941 299940 305933 310926 313918 317909 321902

$$





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