Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 281847
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 29/0000 UTC THRU AUG 30/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

UPPER GREAT LAKES---UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY

NO MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROF
INITIALLY STRETCHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD DAY 1.  AN AXIS OF HIGH PW VALUES 1.75"+
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROF---WITH THE MOST ANOMALOUS VALUES
CONCENTRATED AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROF FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES.   THIS AREA WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO BE
PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  WHILE THE
EARLIER ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS FRONT HAS
WEAKENED THIS AFTERNOON---ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED ACTIVITY AGAIN
LIKELY AFTER 0000 UTC FRI AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
INFLOW INTO THIS FRONT STRENGTHENS.  THIS WILL SUPPORT AN AXIS OF
POTENTIALLY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS--WITH AGAIN MODELS
SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LATITUDE OF THE MAX QPF AXIS.  OUR
OVERALL HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE HI RES RUNS OF THE ARW AND NMM
HAVE LEAD US TO FAVOR THEIR AXES FOR THE QPF DAY 1---WITH THESE
MODELS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP.  A PERIOD OF
TRAINING OF CELLS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN IA---SOUTHEAST MN INTO CENTRAL WI AND
THE L.P. OF MI IN THE 0000-1200 UTC FRI AUG 29TH TIME FRAME.

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS

SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE EXPECTED OVERRUNNING CONVECTION
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES REGION---CONVECTION MAY ALSO
BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROF
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING EASTWARD.  WELL DEFINED
UPPER DIFFLUENCE EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL SUPPORT A
PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED FRONTAL TO PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS
POSSIBLE WHERE ACTIVITY ORGANIZES.  A BLEND OF THE HI RES RUNS WAS
USED TO MITIGATE THE SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL AND HI RES
GUIDANCE.  AT THE MOMENT---MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
NOT BE AS LONG LASTING AS THE EXPECTED ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.  THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL HERE--WITH OVERALL LIGHTER AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS
DEPICTED---ALTHOUGH HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION BECOMES
MOST ORGANIZED EARLY IN THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD.

WESTERN GULF COAST

NOT MUCH MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS PERIOD.  ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AFFECTING COASTAL SECTIONS OF TX.  AT THE
MOMENT CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATING PERIODICALLY ALONG AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROF EXTENDING NORTH FROM THIS LOW OFF THE S TX COAST.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TROF WEAKENING DURING DAY
1---BUT THERE MAY LIKELY REMAIN A CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF AND AREAS INLAND OVER
COASTAL TX.  SUBSEQUENTLY---THERE MAY BE HEAVY RAIN BANDS
AFFECTING COASTAL TX---ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH
RESPECT TO WHERE THE WILL BE AND WHEN THEY WILL PERIODICALLY
ENHANCE.

ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST---MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS---MOVING FARTHER INLAND DURING THE DAY.  MODERATE TO
LOCALLY  HEAVY TOTALS DEPICTED.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 537213 539204 539196 538191 536185 532179 526172 518164
      515160 509158 506158 507154 507149 507140 506134 507117
      508107 508101 505091 503087 502084 503080 517043 520033
      522018 523005 523997 521992 521989 520985 517978 514972
      516966 518962 520957 524946 526931 528918 534894 540873
      543863 544855 542847 540844 532840 528840 524843 520849
      507867 504872 500876 496878 495880 493877 487867 487851
      483825 479816 478812 475809 472806 469804 462806 433821
      422838 421845 419848 415849 403850 398848 395846 388840
      384836 383831 381820 379812 377808 373807 368808 362814
      361818 359820 358824 358830 359836 362840 366845 374848
      383853 388856 390861 393865 393869 390869 384870 382875
      381879 381886 386895 381912 364909 361908 356909 348914
      338930 333936 331939 327940 321940 317938 313935 311933
      311930 311922 312915 313907 315903 317896 317891 318880
      321856 322852 322845 323841 321837 313826 307818 300813
      288804 284801 281796 277792 274791 262790 256790 250791
      245792 244795 240801 239806 238811 240819 246826 254831
      262833 271836 277841 279848 280854 281864 282874 280888
      278901 278908 278916 274923 266935 263940 260943 254947
      246953 242955 240959 239972 241982 242987 243992 245996
      251998 265003 269003 271005 277003 285999 293994 301991
      306994 310994 313997 315999 313002 311008 310019 310024
      311029 313033 317036 324036 329034 336028 342023 350019
      364012 374007 378006 382003 392998 396996 402996 416009
      423014 430014 434014 441009 446002 451998 457991 465974
 0.01 465974 470968 473962 475956 478954 479960 477965 477991
      478002 480005 483005 486006 486009 485014 482022 479032
      482041 467070 441072 449087 445093 444101 443114 444121
      450123 456123 457119 457115 460106 464099 467092 471089
      474089 477092 482093 485095 485098 485113 481125 480130
      481136 484144 489151 494154 497157 501158 502161 500164
      497167 495174 496182 497187 501194 506200 509207 510212
      508219 496209 488204 481206 470213 466214 463218 462222
      463224 477224 483224 487228 492235 496242 497245 495245
      492242 488239 483244 482239 480235 478233 477235 475239
      474247 477256 481265 481268 483272 486279 487282 490285
      492285 501288 504290 507289 511287 514284 518275 518267
      520260 523250 524243 526238 528231 537213
 0.01 507159 505156 504156 502158 503160 505160 507159
 0.25 531210 532203 531197 529193 527188 524187 520189 519193
      519199 520204 523209 526212 529213 531210
 0.25 511276 513268 513261 512256 510252 508249 507250 505255
      503261 500264 500269 501275 503278 505281 508280 510277
      511276
 0.25 529875 528873 524871 519874 510885 503896 499903 497911
      496921 497929 497934 499941 502946 504944 506940 509932
      511918 515902 518894 521889 525883 529877 529875
 0.25 470915 470903 470894 469880 467871 463854 459839 455832
      451829 444826 437827 433832 430839 426845 425850 424856
      426860 428865 430869 429873 428884 427902 424908 421913
      411920 404923 397926 394927 394931 395938 393946 389951
      384954 379954 375953 372950 366947 363946 359947 355949
      345958 340962 338967 337971 338976 337983 336988 333992
      329998 326005 324013 323018 327018 329015 334010 343005
      353998 363991 376984 379977 383973 391972 398973 404971
      411971 415973 417975 421983 424988 427984 429975 431968
      439957 446943 451938 455934 461932 465927 470915
 0.25 378927 377922 375920 369916 365915 360916 353918 350925
      346932 346935 346941 348944 350946 356943 361938 366932
      371929 378927
 0.25 301895 301880 301872 299865 297861 293864 290873 287884
      285896 284903 285910 286917 288922 292923 295919 298908
      300897 301895
 0.25 291826 292823 291819 288816 279813 269809 264808 261808
      258809 249809 245812 244817 247820 252822 260825 269830
      278832 289830 291826
 0.25 294960 293952 290946 285943 281941 268947 258954 253957
      249962 247969 247974 248977 251983 255987 262989 270989
      275986 279981 286972 291967 294960 294960
 0.50 462903 460881 460875 459869 457862 455855 453843 450836
      445833 439832 436833 434837 432843 429852 431856 433858
      438865 439868 439873 437883 434899 431909 429914 425919
      419924 409931 404936 402939 400945 399952 402960 417959
      417964 419967 421969 424969 427963 431955 440945 455923
      460912 462903
 0.50 370981 371978 370974 368970 364969 359968 351971 346978
      341986 337993 334997 335002 337003 340002 343000 349994
      356989 363985 370981
 0.50 293899 293897 293895 294893 294891 293889 291889 290889
      290891 289892 289893 289895 289897 289900 289902 291904
      292901 293901 293899
 0.50 289964 289958 287954 279951 270952 261954 257956 255960
      252970 251974 253978 259983 264984 270983 277979 283974
      288966 289964
 0.50 277826 275824 273822 270820 268820 266819 263817 262817
      259819 262821 264823 267825 269826 271827 274827 277826
 1.00 454903 454891 452882 449872 446872 444875 442884 439892
      436910 433919 429925 420935 416942 413949 421951 423952
      426951 432946 437941 441935 445928 449922 452913 454903
 1.00 359974 357974 356974 357975 359975 359974
 1.00 286966 286962 285959 279956 274955 266955 262958 259964
      258970 261976 265978 270978 275976 281972 284968 286966
 1.50 448906 449899 448891 446887 443892 442897 441901 440909
      439914 439921 440926 442923 445919 447915 448908 448906
 1.50 434935 433935 431935 430935 429935 428936 426937 426938
      425940 424942 426943 428942 430941 430940 431938 432938
      433936 434935
 1.50 283966 283962 279960 274958 270957 266958 263962 262966
      263970 266974 270974 274974 277972 281969 283966
 2.00 280966 280964 279963 277962 276961 274961 272960 271960
      270960 268960 267962 267964 268966 269968 270969 271970
      272971 274971 275970 276970 277969 279968 280966

$$




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