Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 310641
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
140 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 31/1200 UTC THRU FEB 01/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

FAR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND

THE CLOSING OFF UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE PUSHING
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY DAY 1 TOWARD WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA--PIVOTING IN
THIS VICINITY BEFORE PUSHING MORE TO THE EAST LATE DAY 1 TO THE
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  OVERALL THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THIS EVOLUTION.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL IN THE ASSOCIATED COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND TO BE TO THE EAST OF EASTERN
MAINE THIS PERIOD---WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS COMMA HEAD
PRECIP AREA AFFECTING PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN MAINE AFTER 1200 UTC
SATURDAY.  MODERATE PRECIP/SNOW TOTALS POSSIBLE FAR EASTERN MAINE
EARLY DAY 1.

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY

SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRENGTHENING DAY 1
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY
AS HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER TROF AND NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROF WILL PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY---SUPPORTING AN INCREASING
AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SNOWS EXPECTED FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA---FAR NORTHEAST KS---ACROSS IA---NORTHERN M0 INTO
FAR SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL AND NORTHERN IN.  TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THIS OVERRUNNING AXIS--WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH WITH MASS
FIELDS AND PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS DAY
1--LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS USED PRIMARILY FOR QPF DETAILS.

SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN

SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY 1 TIME
PERIOD AS UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST SINKS SLOWLY INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO.  WITH THIS SYSTEM BECOMING MORE SHEARED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 1 AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN IN ITS
WAKE---PRECIP CHANCE WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY .

NORTHERN PLAINS

AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESSING SOUTHWARD SATURDAY
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ENHANCE UVVS POST
FRONTAL---SUPPORTING MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW TOTALS FROM
NORTHEAST MT INTO WESTERN ND.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 477618 498617 501622 504629 509642 512658 513667 511673
      504681 502682 499680 495680 491683 486687 476692 451699
      440700 433702 429705 424706 418705 414703 410699 407695
      405688 405677 404670 404666 406664 408660 413656 416652
      419645 423641 428639 430634
 0.01 523259 522253 523248 519239 514231 508224 503218 496210
      490203 485202 483204 482211 482215 489222 494229 499240
      502246 508255 509262 508264 506263 502255 497248 494244
      491242 488245 487249 490260 490271 482266 473262 470258
      466257 457254 449255 441259 436264 434269 435272 435278
      437282 441291 450294 486303 493302 501299 504297 508295
      513287 523259
 0.01 527137 528126 527121 527116 521104 519095 516088 515079
      512069 507054 505044 503037 498018 492003 479981 474976
      472974 469973 467972 465975 465981 465984 462985 460977
      457967 454952 446913 443893 441886 440878 438868 438864
      442863 447860 453855 457854 461856 463860 463872 465880
      465892 465899 465905 463908 464913 465915 467918 469917
      472907 475893 478884 478875 478864 477857 479852 479846
      480842 479830 480826 480821 479814 475807 470802 453801
      447801 445804 444808 443811 443816 446822 450826 457826
      459828 462832 464837 463840 461839 450843 443848 438849
      435851 431845 429836 432821 433813 437805 442795 450782
      452763 450748 448746 444746 439740 437739 433739 422763
      420768 418769 416773 414775 404782 395793 389807 387814
      386816 386822 387846 386850 387856 385865 383873 377877
      367885 362888 358890 344895 337898 328900 314904 309904
      306903 301901 296900 273891 267894 266898 268901 277908
      282912 288914 301920 312928 314929 316933 317937 318939
      317940 310939 303942 301948 296954 288962 283966 279970
      275975 270978 260988 251998 243012 238025 236031 232037
      226050 225058 227065 230075 238089 252096 266105 282113
      283116 281120 272120 264120 262124 262128 271143 274148
      281153 298160 307162 310165 316167 324169 330172 334171
      336168 334165 327160 312150 311147 310145 311144 318140
      324134 328132 328137 328142 331142 338139 340138 342140
      346142 352140 355138 359139 369140 374139 377137 383131
      389121 391113 392105
 0.01 392105 396094 398088 402083 408077 412073 414071 417071
      420077 421083 424088 428091 436095 442098 446101 448104
      449111 451118 453122 459131 462136 467138 469140 473136
      482143 497157 512171 516171 519167 524152 525144 527137
 0.01 440045 438040 433035 430030 428028 425027 421027 417031
      407026 404021 400021 397023 393027 391030 391034 394041
      397044 402048 409049 415047 418048 420050 424053 425055
      427053 429051 434051 437050 439048 440045
 0.01 364117 364113 362110 361108 359105 357103 355102 352100
      349100 347103 348105 350108 352110 354113 355115 358118
      361118 364117
 0.01 369043 369041 367039 366037 364038 364041 362043 362045
      363046 365045 367044 369043
 0.25 502655 501648 500643 496639 494637 485636 477636 468638
      460641 452644 444648 436654 429659 427662 424667 424672
      425679 439686 442687 447686 458684 467680 475675 485671
      493666 498661 502655
 0.25 494102 494097 492091 490086 488081 487078 485077 483080
      483087 483095 483102 485108 488109 490106 493102 494102
 0.25 484020 484017 483015 483014 482015 482017 482020 483021
      484020
 0.25 435966 436956 435948 435930 434911 431892 428879 424865
      419848 417842 413837 408835 405837 402844 401853 393879
      388889 385895 380900 359910 353914 351918 350925 346932
      343937 339941 330949 327954 325959 323966 321971 317976
      314982 306992 300000 296002 289005 287010 290014 296017
      303018 309020 313022 318026 325028 331026 336023 345017
      354011 364004 373996 378994 384992 397991 408987 415985
      419986 422986 426985 429981 435966
 0.25 336106 336098 334092 333088 330086 324088 319089 311089
      299084 292082 286079 282075 276072 265066 255060 244054
      239055 237061 239067 243072 252081 255084 258090 263094
      268097 279102 293106 299107 304111 310123 315125 320123
      325119 329114 336106
 0.25 266017 265016 263015 261015 260016 259017 259018 260019
      261021 262021 263020 264019 265018 266017
 0.50 485651 483646 481644 474643 466646 460650 453654 450657
      448660 452666 454670 458671 465672 473668 479665 483657
      485651
 0.50 424921 423901 421887 418878 413872 410870 406871 402874
      400879 397888 393896 389904 384914 381922 379931 375941
      370950 364954 357958 349961 343961 344958 343955 341955
      337956 332958 330960 328964 328970 325982 323992 320001
      318004 318007 319008 323010 329011 338008 344006 348004
      351000 356993 362987 369983 373982 380982 390982 399979
      405975 410967 414957 417954 419949 422935 424921
 0.50 299092 298088 293087 285082 279078 271074 265073 260074
      258077 259082 261086 264089 267092 272093 280096 285098
      290098 297094 299092
 1.00 404949 405940 404931 401926 396927 391931 389937 388945
      386951 386959 389962 393963 398959 402955 404949

$$




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