Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 211903
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT SUN MAY 21 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 22/0000 UTC THRU MAY 23/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TX TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

DEEP MOISTURE POOLING ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION BACK INTO SOUTH TX INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL
STREAM ENERGY EMANATING FROM NORTHERN MEX IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION...WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.  ONGOING CONVECTION
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO PORTIONS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX AS AN
APPROACHING WELL-DEFINED SUBTROPICAL STREAM INTERACTS WITH
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  PWS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES (2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) ALONG AN AXIS OF SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL HELP SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ON MON BEFORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION REDEVELOPS FURTHER EAST NEAR
THE CENTRAL/UPPER TX COAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MS
VALLEY REGIONS LATER IN THE DAY.  EXPECT MOISTURE TO FURTHER
DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL INFLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING WAVE.  PWS AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG WITH STRONG
MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING AFFORDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND A
COUPLED UPPER JET IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL 12 UTC
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SHOWING WIDESPREAD HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS FROM ALONG
THE UPPER TX COAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY
REGIONS ON MON.  AS IS TYPICAL WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MODEL
SPREAD IS NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO THE FORECAST DETAILS.  TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE TYPICAL SLOW BIAS THAT THE NAM AND MANY OF THE
00/12 UTC GLOBAL MODELS MAY BE SHOWING...THE WPC FORECAST GAVE
SIGNIFICANT WEIGHT  TO A HI-RES ENSEMBLE....ADVANCING HEAVIER
AMOUNTS MORE QUICKLY TO THE EAST ACROSS LA INTO MS AND AL MON.  IN
ADDITION TO TIMING...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
HOW FAR NORTH HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS.  SUSPECT THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST WILL AT LEAST TO SOME DEGREE HAMPER THE
LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVIER RAINS FURTHER TO THE
NORTH.  THAT SAID...DID NOT EXTEND HEAVIER AMOUNTS AS FAR NORTH AS
SOME OF THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SHOWED.

...MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE NORTHEAST...

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAINS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S..  THIS ENERGY ALONG WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS.  THE
12 UTC GFS SEEMS A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH ITS VERY HEAVY TOTALS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VA AND WESTERN NC.  OTHERWISE...THE
12 UTC GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HI-RES MEMBERS...SHOWED GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SWATH OF 0.50-1 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS FROM THE WESTERN NC/SOUTHWEST VA TO THE DELMARVA AND NJ
THIS PERIOD.

PEREIRA

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 23/00Z
 0.01 541783 541774 539769 536755 533740 531734 527729 523720
      517711 513707 510707 506706 501706 497705 493702 488696
      472695 444682 433684 424686 419689 413691 409694 403696
      396702 389711 378725 372731 368734 363737 358738 353737
      345738 337740 328746 325749 326752 326761 332768 336771
      339772 317779 312781 308783 301790 299794 293794 290797
      288802 279805 270805 264806 259807 255809 254812 257821
      266825 267831 268835 272841 277849 280860 281866 281871
      278881 278904 278910 277916 275921 272924 258933 255934
      255939 255945 257946 265950 269953 269960 267964 264968
      262971 259974 253975 250977 247987 244990 239992 235995
      236998 247011 250014 254017 263022 293038 302042 308047
      315052 321059 326066 329068 334069 339067 341063 345060
      348060 350062 356063 360065 366066 369069 373080 374091
      375096 377101 386101 394100 401105 407105 406102 400097
      398093 399088 401083 404079 407075 412076 416078 421079
      425082 428087 434097 439103 446109 457114 464120 470127
      473131 476134 483139 487139 487135 482127 481125 483124
      486127 487123 485120 480112 474104 471101 470095 468090
      465087 464084 463079 468081 476087 483093 488094 492092
      498085 501080 503076 509068 513066 517064 524064 528062
      531058 531052 529048 518036 512030 509027 505026 501023
      495023 486022 470011 466008 464004 461993 454976 451967
      449963 449957 441904 442877 433871 428871 425873 409884
      403890 396896 390901 387908 378924 371941 367952 366955
      364956 360958 353963 348964 345962
 0.01 345962 341960 340957 338948 337940 338932 341918 343911
      344904 344883 348877 352871 368853 373849 378845 391839
      403834 414828 419824 426821 435819 437821 439825 447834
      451836 454839 452843 449857 451860 452865 455871 458877
      459879 458880 455882 448894 446901 446912 446919 448922
      452927 457940 461952 477984 490981 498980 500978 504978
      509977 512970 520960 523955 528949 532942 532936 533933
      538919 540901 540875 539850 537829 539813 541783
 0.01 417980 416973 410978 407980 407984 405986 405991 405996
      406000 408996 410994 410991 412989 414984 415982 417980
 0.01 383058 382057 381057 379057 377058 375058 374060 375061
      376062 375064 377066 377067 378068 379067 380066 381065
      381063 382060 383058
 0.01 355115 353112 350108 348105 346101 343097 339098 340102
      343106 344109 346114 351116 352117 355115
 0.25 531864 532849 531834 530825 529819 525807 523802 521799
      516793 510784 509777 511773 511768 512765 509753 505744
      501738 495734 490729 484723 479719 475717 471717 466719
      461719 453715 446711 439707 435707 430709 415710 401717
      394720 390726 386735 383744 377749 369753 359755 359762
      359770 358775 351781 345785 335788 330789 326788 319787
      314789 313791 316794 323798 323801 320804 318806 314807
      295809 286810 278812 270811 264811 260813 262817 265819
      274822 282825 293826 306833 306836 304839 302851 303862
      303872 299878 294884 290890 288900 281942 278952 275959
      267974 259988 253991 249997 249001 251003 258008 272017
      281020 287020 290018 294009 299000 310990 315980 318972
      328960 330950 329940 328930 328918 330908 331900 337881
      339875 339868 338856 341846 344837 347835 353834 355835
      353839 352842 352847 354848 357846 361841 362834 361829
      363825 368819 375813 381807 385800 387790 389785 392782
      400776 405771 408768 413766 415768 416772 416775 412784
      403799 402804 404807 410811 413814 417811 420806 428791
      430785 432781 435780 438780 444779 447778 449780 455786
      461793 467799 475802 481806 484809 486813 489816 493817
      495821 495825 493834 491838 491845 492849 495852 497854
      497860 498873 496883 492892 489905 489910 489916 491927
      494937 496941 497946 497952 499955 503947 510942 516938
      521933 524925 527915 529902 530891 531876 531864
 0.25 473036 473034 472032 471031 469030 467031 468033 469034
      470036 472038 473036
 0.25 457015 455008 452003 450998 446992 444985 442983 440983
      438988 439995 441000 444007 447012 451015 454017 457015
 0.25 451080 452078 451077 451075 450073 448071 446071 445072
      444072 445074 445075 446077 446078 447080 448080 449081
      451081 451080
 0.25 435954 436952 436949 436947 436945 436942 435940 435938
      433938 433937 433938 433940 432942 432945 432947 432949
      432952 432954 433957 433959 434957 435955 435954
 0.25 417907 418903 418898 416896 414896 412898 411901 410905
      409908 409912 411915 413914 415913 417910 417907
 0.25 368039 369033 368028 366022 365014 362009 356996 352990
      346987 343986 341988 339995 335001 333006 333014 333017
      330020 329023 328026 332030 339029 342030 344033 345041
      349046 356043 362042 368039
 0.25 352760 352755 349754 347753 345752 342752 338751 335754
      334756 335759 337761 341761 343762 346762 350761 352760
 0.25 325838 324831 322829 318828 315829 309830 306833 310836
      314838 315843 316847 320850 323846 325842 325838
 0.50 525878 526866 525855 523845 521843 518845 515851 513859
      509875 503890 499896 498898 498904 499913 502920 504923
      507925 513923 518919 521913 525897 525884 525878
 0.50 487758 483747 481736 477732 473732 469734 466736 457734
      452728 445723 437722 433722 429725 427728 427731 423751
      425758 427762 430765 433766 449758 455759 458760 464765
      470772 473774 478773 483771 486768 487758
 0.50 418736 416724 413718 410718 408720 405724 400730 395734
      389737 386744 383751 379755 373756 370757 368759 371767
      369773 370780 367784 354791 348794 346800 340805 338811
      337815 339815 346814 350815 354822 359820 364816 369812
      374807 377801 379796 386782 393773 397767 403762 407757
      409752 414743 417739 418736
 0.50 416788 415787 414788 413788 411793 412792 414790 416789
      416788
 0.50 361034 361024 360019 358016 357012 356008 353001 348995
      344995 345002 347010 347014 345015 343018 344020 347022
      351029 355035 358036 360034 361034
 0.50 341799 338799 336797 334799 330800 329801 327803 326806
      325810 327812 330812 331811 335809 336806 338804 339801
      341799
 0.50 334869 335863 334856 330853 326855 321860 315866 312874
      307881 302887 296892 291899 289908 287929 286939 283950
      276964 272971 268978 263986 259991 255993 254995 255998
      260003 266008 273011 278013 283012 286008 286003 290996
      295989 304988 307985 309981 312971 314964 319956 324949
      325945 324941 324930 325919 327908 331890 332877 334869
 0.50 312820 313816 311814 308814 302814 297813 289811 281814
      271813 265813 263814 264816 272820 279822 289823 298825
      302827 307826 311824 312820
 1.00 372800 375794 375792 373793 368796 365798 363798 360801
      360805 360807 360811 362812 364811 367809 369806 370804
      371801 372800
 1.00 328868 327865 323867 319873 311885 306892 301897 296902
      292908 291917 290929 289938 287945 284953 281960 274974
      273984 271988 268990 262993 259995 261998 267003 273007
      278008 280006 280999 281996 284993 288987 295973 297970
      299974 300978 303977 306969 309962 315945 319930 324911
      325903 326894 326885 326877 328868
 1.00 290820 289818 288818 286817 286816 284816 282815 281816
      279816 277816 275816 274818 275818 277819 277820 279820
      281820 283820 285821 287821 288821 290820 290820
 1.50 368802 367800 365801 363801 362803 362804 361805 362807
      362808 364807 365806 367804 368802
 1.50 323874 320877 317881 312890 306900 303903 298905 295910
      293916 292931 292937 290944 289950 287954 281964 277974
      277982 280986 283985 284981 285976 288971 292967 295963
      299960 307954 310949 312943 315931 318920 320913 320905
      320897 321892 323874
 1.50 276003 275001 275000 274999 273998 271997 270997 269996
      268996 267997 266998 265999 266999 267001 268001 269002
      271003 273004 275004 276003
 2.00 319884 319881 315887 311894 306903 304907 301910 297910
      295914 294926 294940 291949 287960 281966 279971 279975
      281976 285972 294958 298954 302952 306949 308945 313924
      315919 314916 309915 310910 315902 318892 319884

$$





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