Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 280618
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
118 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 28/1200 UTC THRU MAR 01/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

CALIFORNIA...GREAT BASIN...SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT IN DVLPG AN
ELONGATED CLOSED LOW ACRS CA INTO NV BY SUN MRNG AS HEIGHT FALLS
CONTINUE TO DROP RAPIDLY SWD FROM THE NRN PAC COAST REGION.   THIS
WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED CONDS ACRS MUCH OF CA INTO THE GT BASIN
AND 4 CORNERS REGION WITH  MODELS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
WITH QPF DETAILS..ESPECIALLY THE LIGHTER AMOUNTS.  WITH
TIME...BACKING MID/UPR FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPR TROF SHOULD ENCOURAGE
SOME FOCUSED HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS ACRS THE MOGOLLON RIM AREA OF
AZ..PARTS OF THE SRN WASATCH RANGE AND EWD ACRS THE SAN JUANS OF
SW CO/NRN NM.  STAYED CLOSED TO BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND HIER RES
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE BETTER TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS.  SOME
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY SNOWS ARE LIKELY ACRS THE HIER ELEVS...SEE THE
LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS

WEAK S/WV ENERGY EJECTING ENEWD FROM THE SRN HI PLAINS WILL HELP
TO INITIATE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER WESTERN PORTION OF RETREATING
ARCTIC HIGH PRES SYSTEM AS PCPN STREAKS OUT ACRS THE CNTL
PLAINS..MID MS VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY THIS PD AND
LATER SUSTAINED BY HEIGHT FALLS DROPPING SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS
LATE IN THE PD. THE GFS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT OF A DRY OUTLIER AND
SLOW AND ALTHOUGH IT HAS SPED UP SOME THIS RUN...IT STILL APPEARS
TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A DRY OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE EC/NAM/CANADIAN
GEM.  SEE PMDHMD FOR FURTHER REASONING.   KEPT HIER AMOUNTS OF .25
TO .50 INCH LIQUID WITH AXIS OF HIEST MSTR FLUX FROM PORTIONS OF
NE OK/SE KS THROUGH CNTL/SRN MO INTO WRN IN.  SEE QPFHSD FOR
DETAILS ON PTYPE AND SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS ACRS THIS AREA.

FLORIDA

MSTR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS PARTS OF FL AND THE SE U.S. AS
SLOW BUILDING OF HEIGHTS ACRS THE SE FORCES AXIS OF HIER PWS NWD
ALONG WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER COOL LOW LEVEL SFC
RIDGE EXTENDING SWD FROM THE MID ATLC REGION.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN QPF DETAILS HERE IS QUITE LOW GIVE LARGE MODEL SPREAD WITH BOTH
QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT.  HI RES GUIDANCE SHOWS POTNL FOR SOME
VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FL..BUT
EVEN THESE MODELS SHOW LITTLE AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE BEST FOCUS
WILL BE.   A RESULT...HAVE TAKE A RATHER CONSERVATIVE APCH WITH
QPF AMOUNTS..TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME SHORT TERM SATL/RADAR
TRENDS..WHILE FOCUSING THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FL WITH PSBL INVERTED TROF SETTING UP NEAR THE COAST.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 506960 506952 506949 504949 502952 499956 496960 494963
      492967 490972 492975 496973 499971 501967 504964 506960
 0.01 504924 503915 501908 493904 487906 484907 482909 477910
      472914 469920 467925 472934 469937 467940 466944 467949
      469950 476949 479949 481947 486947 496941 499936 502930
      504924
 0.01 232968 287012 296017 305018 320022 337028 340032 342037
      345046 347055 340058 334058 334060 342065 345068 344074
      334076 330079 328081 328084 329096 326099 324103 329112
      333118 332123 333127 339131 344136 348138 349143 355146
      360149 362153 359156 360158 361165 364173 363177 358178
      354179 350176 347171 345166 340162 335160 331158 325157
      314156 311158 310163 310167 311170 315177 320182 326189
      331198 335207 339213 344212 348214 354220 361227 364230
      369230 388242 404243 405238 405233 395229 391226 389222
      395220 401221 405221 410216 415214 416218 418223 421224
      429221 435216 438207 439201 438194 439161 442159 445157
      445151 443147 440143 439141 436140 429144 422147 422140
      422136 423127 427118 432114 435112 440113 443111 449104
      450102 443096 432094 423088 417099 412097 410093 411087
      413082 416078 417072 417068 419065 419060 418055 417051
      414049 409049 406051 401049 397046 390042 386040 384041
      378041 373041 365045 363045 360043 359039 357033 358025
      359021 361020 366017 371016 374019 378023 380023 389025
      396030 400030 404028 407019 408009 412989 412962 413953
      414947 414942 416938 416930 417924 417916 417913 419910
      419905 417901 417897 419882 422859 423839 426827 425819
      426815 425810 424804 423794 420780 414783 408784 405787
      400793 393801 391811 388824 385836 381854 375873 369890
      360907 355914 351920 341934 338939 332941 327942 320942
      303933 301931 299931 294932 289933 283933 281935 275941
      265951 254954 249955 245954 232951
 0.01 357111 357109 357107 356107 355105 355104 354103 352104
      352106 352108 353109 354111 355111 356112 357111
 0.01 358823 358816 357810 351807 347807 339803 332796 325791
      319790 317788 317784 313776 307767 299749 298742 296738
      295733 292729 288727 283729 277737 268752 265762 264776
      264782 265788 265791 262793 254798 250803 250808 257814
      260817 262821 273839 270849 270855 269859 268864 268871
      270877 273880 279875 285869 295851 300843 303839 306836
      310833 315835 325838 330840 335839 345838 353830 358823
 0.01 347092 346090 345090 344088 343087 343086 342087 342088
      343089 344091 344092 346094 347092
 0.25 396198 393195 389192 385190 381190 376191 375194 377198
      380202 384205 388206 392204 394200 396198
 0.25 409068 407065 401065 400068 397067 395063 390062 385063
      378060 374052 371050 368049 363050 356053 354056 355060
      356064 356076 350085 355094 358097 361099 365099 369096
      375105 377107 377110 375114 367117 359119 351112 345104
      342096 340092 337091 336094 335102 333107 334112 336117
      340124 342127 347127 354127 358125 365126 370136 372138
      378140 381141 384145 387148 390146 389141 386138 387134
      390129 394125 398122 401120 402118 401115 399111 394109
      387111 383107 385102 386099 386095 388090 392082 396076
      399076 401073 403071 406070 409068
 0.25 401887 401879 401870 400866 398865 396865 389874 384881
      376902 368923 365937 361946 359951 357958 356965 357970
      366976 371978 375976 378971 380966 384956 385948 385939
      387936 391933 393928 394921 397908 399897 401887
 0.25 377187 375185 375184 373183 372183 370183 371184 373186
      374186 375187 377187 377187
 0.25 362215 362214 360214 359215 360215 361216 362215
 0.25 343180 344174 343170 339167 334165 329164 325163 321164
      321167 324171 327174 331175 336177 340176 343180 343180
 0.25 314811 314807 312804 307801 301801 294802 287802 283798
      279795 273794 261799 258804 262807 274808 282809 286812
      292821 298823 303823 312816 314811
 0.25 304977 302972 299970 295968 290967 281965 272964 261963
      257964 258968 263974 269980 277985 286987 292986 295985
      299983 303979 304977
 0.50 389201 387199 387198 386197 384196 382197 382198 383200
      384201 385202 387202 389201 389201
 0.50 395117 395115 394113 392112 391113 390114 389115 387116
      387117 386118 386119 388119 390120 392119 393119 394118
      395117
 0.50 390075 388072 385075 382075 381072 379067 375063 372060
      367057 367052 362052 358056 360058 364058 364061 361065
      361069 365073 368077 373086 374088 378088 381084 384080
      388079 390075
 0.50 378098 379096 379094 378092 376094 376096 376098 378099
      378098
 0.50 353119 352117 351114 349112 347110 345107 344105 341103
      339105 337108 338113 339115 341118 343120 347120 350121
      353119
 0.50 330168 331166 330166 328165 327165 326165 327166 328168
      329168 330168 330168
 0.50 304810 306808 304807 302807 300808 298809 297809 295810
      294811 295812 296813 297814 299814 301814 302813 303812
      304811 304810
 0.50 281978 282976 282974 281973 280972 279972 277971 275970
      274970 272969 270969 268970 269972 270973 271974 272975
      274976 275977 277978 278978 279979 281979 281978
 0.50 273799 272798 270798 268798 266799 264799 263800 263802
      265803 267803 268803 270802 272801 273799
 1.00 376073 376071 376070 376069 375066 373064 372064 371063
      370063 369064 368065 367066 368066 369068 371069 373070
      374071 374072 376073 376074 376073
 1.00 349117 349115 349114 347112 346111 345109 344109 343109
      342111 343113 344114 345116 346116 347117 349117 349117

$$




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