Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 260658
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 26/1200 UTC THRU OCT 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

ONSHORE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW...WHICH WILL MAKE
STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL
FAVOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT-MODERATE PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WA/OR
COASTAL AND CASCADE RANGES (AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER
AN INCH)...AS ONLY MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT
(PWATS .50 OR LESS...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST) WILL TEND TO LIMIT
HIGHER AMOUNTS. A LONGER PERIOD OF FORCING AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO SECONDARY PCPN MAXIMA ACROSS
THE SALMON RIVER/SAWTOOTH/BITTERROOT RANGES AND NRN ROCKIES ACROSS
ID/WESTERN MT/NORTHWEST WY...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CO ROCKIES.
ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...THE RELATIVELY LOW PWATS (LESS THAN .50 INCH)
WILL CAP AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS TO AROUND .50 OR LESS. WPC QPF WAS
BASED PRIMARILY FROM A BLEND OF THE HIGH-RES ECMWF AND RGEM
GUIDANCE... ALONG WITH THE 4 KM NAM CONEST AND WRF-ARW. BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH-RES GUIDANCE...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AOA 1.00
INCH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


...UPPER MIDWEST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN
THE PERIOD (SUN NIGHT) AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST AND DEEP LAYER WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT ENSUES...WITH SOME
ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE VIA THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. BEST LIFTED INDICES GET
INTO THE -2 TO -4C RANGE ACROSS WI AND WESTERN UPPER MI...WHILE
PWATS CLIMB TO AROUND 1.00 INCH OR ~2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. BOTH ARE FAIRLY DECENT THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS FOR LATE
OCTOBER...HOWEVER THE QG FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY TRANSITORY AND AS
SUCH EXPECT AREAL-AVERAGE PCPN AMOUNTS TO TOP OUT BETWEEN .25 AND
.50 INCH.


HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 536196 537187 536179 533166 530161 527159 528154 531149
      532139 530124 528118 526112 520102 519096 516090 509083
      505078 501077 496073 489072 486072 484074 480079 478083
      475089 473096 471102 466104 463103 462099 460094 461089
      463083 464074 464070 463068 460063 456059 455054 457052
      460047 461038 459023 456010 453998 450995 449003 447008
      444013 440025 436030 435033 434037 434045 437050 440055
      444059 443065 440070 441073 444077 448081 449085 447089
      443091 438092 433093 429090 425086 426091 427097 428101
      425102 422104 419107 415108 413106 410101 410098 408097
      406099 405103 402108 398110 395116 399118 404118 410119
      418127 414141 414149 413156 414161 416165 423172 427175
      430176 432174 435171 438171 441173 444177 446179 444181
      441183 440186 438193 439199 441205 441209 439213 432211
      429208 424207 423213 421218 416230 412231 410233 409238
      407243 409248 412254 417258 428262 451265 455265 461265
      466266 472267 478270 482274 490281 494287 499290 508288
      510283 510279 509275 510270 505266 503261 500257 498252
      494241 495237 498239 501243 508253 514264 520267 523262
      522254 520247 518242 516235 515231 516226 518220 524212
      526210 528210 531205 536196
 0.01 527010 528000 527993 523976 523969 523962 519949 512941
      507928 506924 508922 513920 518910 518902 515897 511892
      507888 500880 491875 483869 478867 471867 466869 460869
      458867 457863 455857 451845 447841 445838 442839 437840
      432842 428846 425850 422855 420861 421871 422879 426891
      431902 434908 437913 441917 443918 447919 467925 472928
      476931 484942 487945 490950 490955 487957 484959 482962
      481966 481976 480984 478992 476999 476009 480020 499032
      508027 511024 514023 517023 521022 524018 527010
 0.01 498201 497192 494187 486179 481175 477171 473176 469175
      467173 465172 464174 464181 460185 456189 453196 453201
      456203 459204 461205 466206 470202 472200 475201 484200
      489198 492201 493203 496203 498201
 0.01 488680 485671 481660 477652 472645 467638 460634 453632
      449631 444632 435635 428642 427646 428652 433658 439663
      442665 446668 451673 455680 453683 448684 443691 437710
      432716 428719 424720 420723 419726 423726 424729 422730
      418731 419737 419751 423761 428768 430779 433781 437778
      439769 443762 453747 460741 462733 463728 465723 470715
      473713 476709 481703 485699 488692 488680
 0.01 484125 484121 483118 482115 479113 476112 474114 471113
      469111 467113 466117 465122 466126 470126 473127 476127
      480128 483128 484125
 0.01 436007 437997 433992 427992 422996 413003 410009 407016
      402029 401035 404042 405049 403053 400053 395056 391060
      389062 385062 380067 368062 368065 370067 372069 374072
      374080 377081 381081 384076 387076 388079 391085 396088
      402087 409087 412080 417076 416071 417065 415062 415057
      416048 418041 422035 428024 436007
 0.25 530189 528183 526180 521168 519162 515159 513160 512164
      510166 508166 502164 498165 493166 495171 498175 504186
      509196 517201 521200 525198 528194 530189
 0.25 495220 494213 490208 486207 479208 474208 470211 465212
      458212 449216 439219 434222 435226 439228 445229 451228
      453230 451232 445233 436238 432241 428247 432248 437249
      460249 472249 477248 481247 481239 479231 474232 471232
      468230 467227 471222 476221 483223 487225 491224 495220
 0.25 505114 505109 503106 502104 500102 498100 495099 494102
      494107 495110 497113 499115 501116 504117 505114
 0.25 491168 491167 489166 488167 488170 489170 490170 491168
      491168
 0.25 501985 502980 502975 500971 499970 496967 494967 492967
      490970 489975 489977 489980 490984 492987 495987 497988
      500988 501985
 0.25 490144 490142 490141 490139 489137 488136 487135 486135
      484135 482135 481137 482138 484140 484141 485141 487143
      487144 488144 490145 490144
 0.25 498939 498937 497935 497934 496932 495932 494931 493932
      492932 491934 492937 494939 494940 496941 497941 498939
 0.25 484161 480156 476153 468144 463141 457140 449147 438148
      436154 437158 439159 444162 448168 450169 451170 453169
      456163 460159 465161 469166 474165 480164 483163 484161
 0.25 473695 473694 472693 471692 469693 469694 468695 466697
      465700 465702 467702 468701 469701 470700 471698 472698
      473696 473695
 0.25 455653 455652 454651 453651 451651 449652 448653 447655
      448657 449657 450657 452657 454656 455655 455653
 0.25 461180 461179 459179 457179 456179 456182 457183 459182
      461181 461180
 0.25 473882 473881 473880 471879 470880 469882 469883 468885
      466887 466888 465890 466892 468893 470892 471891 472890
      472887 473885 473883 473882
 0.25 454113 454105 454100 450095 444096 438097 434102 431106
      434112 440114 445117 450117 454113
 0.25 458891 457884 453879 449877 444878 439881 433879 430880
      430883 432889 436894 441896 446898 451900 456898 458891
 0.25 422243 422241 421240 419240 417239 417240 418242 419242
      420243 422243
 0.25 409068 408065 407063 403062 402063 400067 399070 397072
      394073 392074 392077 393078 397080 400078 402077 404074
      405072 407070 409068
 0.50 519188 519184 518180 517177 515175 512175 510175 508177
      508182 509185 510187 512189 515190 517189 519188
 0.50 487218 488216 487213 486212 482210 479210 477210 474212
      473214 473217 476218 479218 481219 483219 485219 487218
 0.50 479243 480239 479235 474233 470236 468236 465235 462231
      462227 463225 464219 459216 455217 453219 453223 457226
      457231 450234 445236 441239 440243 442245 446245 457244
      466243 476244 479243
 0.50 448222 448221 447221 445220 445222 446223 448222 448222
 0.50 452164 453161 453159 453157 452156 451155 450155 449155
      448156 446157 447160 449162 450163 450164 452164 452164
 0.50 446109 446107 445106 444105 442104 441104 439105 439106
      438107 438109 440110 441110 442110 443111 444111 445110
      446109

$$





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