Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 081053
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
552 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 08/1200 UTC THRU FEB 11/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...STORM MOVING UP THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EARLY TODAY...

AN IMPRESSIVE...ALREADY MATURE CYCLONE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR
OR BELOW 980 MB AT 06Z WILL LIFT UP THE COAST TODAY. THE STORM
WILL PASS WELL EAST OF THE 70/40 DEGREE BENCHMARK...BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF 850-700
MB WARM ADVECTION AND MODERATE TO STRONG 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS.
THIS WILL YIELD A WINTER STORM WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALSO BEING FORECAST IN SOME
AREAS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE HEAVIEST FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND
TO CENTRAL/EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION TOTALS VIA OCEAN EFFECT OVER EASTERN
MASS. FORECASTS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION WERE RELATIVELY
STEADY FROM THE 12Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY MODEL CYCLES. WPC AND
LOCAL NWS OFFICES HAVE LEANED TOWARD SOME OF THE HEAVIER GUIDANCE
OWING TO THE SYSTEM STRENGTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE ABOVE
0.50 INCHES DURING THE STORM AND EASTERLY 700 MB FLOW PEAKS AROUND
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMATOLOGY. WPC MADE ONLY A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS...FAVORING THE 12Z WRF-NMM AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
TRENDS. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE CHANGES WAS TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT
ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT REDUCTION OF AMOUNTS FROM
SOUTHEAST NY TO CENTRAL NH AND CENTRAL ME. SEE THE LATEST WPC
HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...QPFHSD...FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION.


...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

THERE IS GOOD LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT AS TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN
ELONGATED AND BROADENING UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. WITH MID SEASON ARCTIC AIR HELPING TO CARVE OUT THE
TROUGH...850 MB TEMPERATURES AND 500 MB HEIGHTS DIP WELL BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
LACKING FOR AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE...WITH THE DEEPER SUB-TROPICAL
PLUME BEING DIRECTED OUT ALONG THE PRECEDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. COLD TEMPERATURES...STEEP
LAPSE RATES...AND SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE FORCING...HOWEVER...WILL
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR BROAD AREAS OF AT LEAST 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH
AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ON THE LARGE
SCALE PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTIONS AMONG THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR
WITH ONE MAX IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES...AND A SECOND MAX ALONG THE
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL
DIFLUENCE AND LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
PERSISTENT ON THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
CIRCULATION...TRACKING FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH OHIO TO WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS FORCING IS LIKELY TO EXTEND OUT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH VA/MD/DC AND SOUTHERN PA MONDAY NIGHT NEAR A
DEVELOPING SURFACE OCCLUSION.

MODEL QPFS WERE GENERALLY SPATIALLY CONSISTENT WITH ONE
ANOTHER...WHILE VARYING IN THE SMALL SCALE DETAILS. GIVEN THE
SYSTEM IS DRY IN A TOTAL PW SENSE...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FORCED LARGELY BY THE MID LEVELS...WITH LOCAL UPSLOPE INFLUENCES
AT LOW LEVELS...THE DISTRIBUTION OF HEAVIER POCKETS OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE. WITHIN THE ZONE OF
PERSISTENT MID LEVEL ASCENT DESCRIBED EARLIER FROM MICHIGAN TO THE
MID ATLANTIC...HOWEVER...QUARTER INCH ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE A
GOOD BET BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES AND AGREEMENT AMONG
THE GFS...WRF-ARW...WRF-NMM...AND GEM REGIONAL. HOW QUICKLY THESE
ACCUMULATIONS BUILD OUT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC IS ANOTHER
QUESTION...HOWEVER...WITH THE 00Z HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDING
SLOWER...AND HOLDING OFF MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL DAY 2.
FOR NOW...WPC NUDGED THE SMALL SCALE DETAILS TOWARD THE 18Z GEM
REGIONAL...12Z WRF-NMM...AND 12Z WRF-ARW...WHILE MAINTAINING A
GREAT DEAL OF CONTINUITY. ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WAS
TO DRY THE FORECAST OVER UPSTATE NY...WHERE THEY WILL BE CAUGHT IN
BETWEEN THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND THE DEEPER FORCING PASSING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD LIGHT MEASURABLE
PRECIP...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN 0.10 INCHES FOR MOST OF UPSTATE NY
PER AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES AND MOST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.


...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...

THE AIR MASS HAD DRIED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
WEEKEND SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE REGION TODAY MAY TAP A LIMITED RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE
NORTHEAST GULF...AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT
SHOWERS. ANALOG DATA FROM THE GEFS REFORECAST SUGGESTS A
DISTRIBUTION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER FL/GA/SC RESEMBLING THE
00Z NAM AND GEM REGIONAL...WHICH WERE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS WPC
FORECAST.


DAYS 2/3...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATL...

AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN STATES
TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH WED AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  A LARGE
CLOSED MID TO UPPER LOW WHICH STARTS OVER THE STATE OF MI AND THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND
APPALACHIANS...WHILE UPPER JET DYNAMICS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATL REGION. TJE UPPER
DYNAMICS HELP SPIN UP ANOTHER CYCLONE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY.  A POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS/TROWAL COULD SET UP FROM
THIS INTENSIFYING LOW BACK TO THE SURFACE RESEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER
LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WHICH FOCUSES MOISTURE AND PCPN ALONG A
CONVERGENCE AXIS FOR HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS AND SNOW. THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SHOW MODEST SPREAD ON THIS
SYSTEM AND RESULTANT QPF...BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
WORKING TOWARDS A COMMON IDEA.  SO WHILE THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS AND WITH QPF
AMOUNTS...WE WERE ABLE TO FOLLOW CONTINUITY PLUS A GFS/ECMWF COMBO
WITH MOST WEIGHT GIVEN TOWARDS THE GFS.  ON WED...DEEP COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONSUME THE EASTERN STATES...WHICH RESULTS IN
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS INTO THE APPALACHIANS WHILE THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS
WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND NY STATE.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/BANN


24HR QP VT 09/12Z
 0.01 468621 470622 473621 477625 483636 483651 483658 483661
      484671 486691 486698 484702 476715 472719 466722 463723
      461726 458731 456744 453762 455773 458776 461775 471776
      481781 485783 488789 492805 486816 482827 480830 479835
      482845 483851 485851 489856 491863 494868 491881 487897
      486917 486925 483929 481930 479927 477925 476927 471932
      464937 456943 450945 442945 440945 440940 438937 440935
      440927 440921 438918 434916 429919 421926 417928 414926
      408923 403917 396915 394920 397926 402929 407931 411934
      415939 418945 422950 421954 417954 412954 408951 404948
      402946 398945 395943 391943 386939 382936 379931 371925
      367920 366918 366915 364911 362903 361894 361888 360885
      358878 355872 353868 350868 348871 343873 340868 339865
      340862 335861 331858 329852 329848 330845 332841 335834
      338830 339825 336822 331825 314839 305846 296838 295831
      292826 293820 293813 293805 294800 297793 297783 296769
      302759 308748 314738 326719 341697 348690 355681 363672
      369667 374662 380660 386661 389661 391664 394669 396669
      398667 404665 409661 413656 419644 427635
 0.01 522036 519025 516022 511019 504015 500013 495012 473011
      470013 466011 458005 453005 449006 445009 442012 452027
      460034 467038 472039 474041 476042 483047 486052 490056
      493058 498060 501059 502051 505047 508045 511043 513043
      518043 522036
 0.01 427845 430843 434844 435844 437842 437841 436840 434840
      432840 429839 428838 426836 424837 423837 421837 419837
      417837 416838 415840 416841 418841 419841 420841 421843
      423843 425845 427845
 0.01 422756 422751 420747 420745 418743 414742 411743 407744
      405745 406747 408749 410753 411756 414757 416759 420758
      422756
 0.01 374754 373748 372745 371743 369742 366744 359748 353753
      348758 345764 342771 342776 346776 353772 358767 365762
      370759 373756 374754
 0.01 288837 288833 286831 285828 283826 281825 278825 277828
      278832 278834 280838 282840 284840 286839 288837
 0.01 272803 272799 268797 257798 252799 248801 246805 244809
      243819 244825 247827 249824 251820 253817 253812 251808
      252806 254804 259801 265802 268806 271806 272803
 0.01 273073 273069 271065 268058 265053 262047 258045 256046
      250048 250053 252056 254063 256069 261076 264077 268077
      273073
 0.25 470646 470641 468638 463636 458636 452635 446637 439641
      431648 422657 415666 408676 401685 394694 390700 388705
      386711 386716 387721 396728 401730 407730 414728 419725
      425723 431719 439711 451689 457680 460674 461666 464661
      467656 469650 470646
 0.25 475887 475882 475877 474875 471873 469875 468880 468883
      467888 466892 466895 466900 468900 470898 471895 473892
      474890 475887
 0.25 467819 467813 466808 460803 445798 440792 438789 435790
      428795 424796 418795 413791 410788 410784 407777 401771
      399769 397765 395759 393755 387753 385756 385763 386768
      385772 383777 382782 384789 379797 369809 364814 359821
      355828 351835 350839 353840 358834 362829 367827 371829
      375830 380829 390828 398829 405834 409831 411828 413825
      418823 425820 430820 434823 440826 448827 461828 465824
      467819
 0.25 466866 465866 464865 463866 464868 465866 466866
 0.25 384690 383683 380679 374679 370682 362690 356698 350704
      343713 338721 332730 327738 323749 321759 319765 320767
      322769 329765 337759 344752 351744 356737 360727 363722
      366717 371715 376712 381704 384692 384690
 0.50 460649 454643 450642 445643 431658 424663 418671 407687
      402695 398705 396716 399720 403721 408721 414719 420717
      425715 431709 436700 441691 444681 453663 458656 460649
 0.50 460815 460812 459811 457811 456812 454813 454814 454816
      455818 456819 458819 459817 460815
 0.50 411819 407815 403813 400812 396811 393808 390804 387806
      384811 386817 389820 393820 399821 402821 407820 411819
 0.50 395775 395774 394775 395776 395775
 0.50 399777 398777 397777 399777 399777
 0.50 377691 376687 374686 372688 371691 370693 369697 368700
      369705 372705 373704 375701 376698 377694 377691
 0.50 351735 348735 346732 349725 348719 344718 340722 335730
      332735 330739 331744 332749 334752 337752 340750 345745
      349740 351735
 1.00 446656 445653 443654 440658 434667 430671 426674 422678
      420683 418688 415692 412698 414700 417704 422706 428696
      432685 435674 437670 441666 444661 446656

24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 509288 509282 507277 505272 504265 504260 502254 498251
      494248 491244 486243 482243 476242 468242 460245 442249
      434250 430251 426254 427257 428258 433258 443258 452258
      462258 466257 471259 480265 485268 488271 495279 502286
      506289 509288
 0.01 487699 486691 484684 481671 479665 476661 467657 458653
      453653 450659 448664 444668 437674 429681 424683 420682
      408685 402685 398686 388693 380702 375705 370707 365710
      360711 349715 343721 329736 325746 320755 314778 312783
      315786 319787 323785 330778 336770 348751 352748 358746
      367748 371751 375756 376757 375760 373764 370768 369773
      366777 368783 374783 378781 381786 383793 380798 376801
      372803 369804 367804 366807 364813 361816 358820 356826
      353826 348834 333838 332844 332851 329855 329859 341875
      355888 366887 374882 383886 388890 394892 398892 403895
      408894 412892 415896 420900 427897 431894 437892 449896
      449901 452902 456905 462912 466913 470912 475901 477897
      478891 482878 483870 482861 481840 479807 466754 464751
      464747 463741 467736 469731 472726 476721 480712 484705
      487699
 0.01 498062 499057 498053 496048 492043 490038 484029 479025
      476019 469013 460008 454008 451007 448005 439999 433990
      428992 424992 423996 421998 415998 417002 422006 427014
      433023 444026 449030 454032 462038 465039 467042 470046
      476048 479053 481060 484063 493064 498062
 0.01 441723 441721 440719 438717 436717 434718 433720 431723
      433725 435724 437724 439726 440724 441723
 0.25 473885 474877 472871 471866 469863 467860 467856 467858
      466866 465871 465878 467883 467890 469892 471890 473886
      473885
 0.25 465851 463846 461841 457838 454840 451844 448847 444851
      443854 441858 441861 443862 448862 452860 455857 459854
      463852 465851
 0.25 413715 414710 412706 408705 404705 396707 389712 384716
      382723 380731 381737 383740 386747 388752 388758 389763
      390768 394775 398781 402781 404779 407772 408767 408764
      406755 406749 407745 408736 409728 413715
 0.25 424862 422861 421860 420860 420863 421865 422865 424863
      424862
 0.25 419787 419783 417783 410787 406789 402788 399788 396791
      391796 387802 386805 389806 396805 403805 411803 416799
      419790 419787
 0.50 390732 390730 389730 390732 390732

24HR QP VT 11/12Z
 0.01 519276 520270 519265 518255 511237 504221 501214 494210
      490210 486207 484204 481203 477212 475215 471217 469214
      465214 460219 458223 455227 450232 444237 439243 428255
      417264 412269 407277 408286 411293 418292 425288 436280
      444292 450291 456288 470282 476280 484280 498290 507293
      510293 513290
 0.01 516025 516017 514012 511006 508003 495987 481974 472969
      469966 466961 457956 452954 448954 445958 446963 452972
      459979 467985 469990 472994 475999 478003 475009 478014
      481017 489023 498023 505029 511030 513030 514027 516025
 0.01 476692 476686 474682 469683 466687 460690 453691 451694
      448693 447689 447686 447681 445676 440670 432667 425668
      415671 410673 407676 404682 386714 382720 377728 374731
      373736 375741 376744 380747 384747 391742 396737 402741
      404741 405744 405750 403755 404760 409767 410772 409777
      405780 399781 392785 386791 380791 380797 377800 369804
      359816 355823 354828 355835 354841 362836 364841 363845
      360850 360852 364852 367849 376853 383856 389861 407864
      418876 426877 435876 446876 449877 454877 457878 457882
      457889 456898 460903 462906 466908 472904 475897 480889
      483884 482883 481879 481875 480869 476860 465819 464815
      466812 470804 471798 471792 471788 469786 469781 466778
      464774 461770 457769 455766 455762 454749 454738 455732
      458727 462720 466710 469704 469699 476692
 0.01 442014 443009 443007 439006 436004 434004 431002 429001
      427999 425999 425002 427006 427009 429011 432012 435014
      437014 441014 442014
 0.01 383777 383772 382768 382764 381759 380757 378754 376755
      375758 375762 375767 376771 377776 378778 381780 383777
 0.25 511276 512270 513263 512255 511250 509246 505239 501233
      499232 497237 500245 503252 499258 502266 505274 508277
      511276
 0.25 457249 457247 455248 454248 453249 452250 451252 450252
      449254 450255 451255 452254 453253 454252 455251 456250
      457249
 0.25 422799 422796 421796 420797 419799 418801 418802 420804
      421801 422801 422799
 0.25 424865 422863 421863 421862 420863 420865 421865 422865
      424865
 0.25 392803 390802 388803 387803 385804 383806 382807 382808
      380809 379812 380813 382812 384811 385810 387809 388808
      389807 390806 390805 392803

$$





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