Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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646
FXUS04 KWBC 241854
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 25/0000 UTC THRU MAY 26/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...CENTRAL U.S....

CERTAINLY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A DIFFICULT QPF PATTERN WITH
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND SHEAR OVER A BROAD
AREA...BUT WITH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION BEING GOVERNED MORE BY THE
DIURNAL CYCLE AND MESO OR STORM SCALE PROCESSES RATHER THAN
DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES. MOREOVER...THE BEST LARGE-SCALE
DYNAMICAL SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS-UPPER MS VALLEY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS-MID MS VLY...WHERE THE FRONTOGENETIC...RIGHT-ENTRANCE
REGION FORCING VIA THE NORTHERN STREAM JET STREAK WILL BE
CO-LOCATED WITH THE BROADLY-DIFFLUENT MID-UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE
WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. MEANWHILE...THE MORE ROBUST DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH...IN PARTICULAR ACROSS OK/TX
WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPES HAVE CLIMBED TO 3000-4000+ J/KG. THIS IS
ALSO WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW WILL RESIDE (ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERLY LLJ STRENGTHENING TO 40-50 KTS INTO
KS)...WHILE PWS RANGE BETWEEN 1.5-1.75". AS ANTICIPATED...THE QPF
GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE VARIED AMONG THE 12Z MODELS...INCLUDING THE
STORM-SCALE CAMS. WPC UTILIZED QUITE A BIT OF HRRR/EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR...WRF-ARW...AND RGEM GUIDANCE EARLY IN THE PERIOD (INTO THIS
EVENING) BASED ON THEIR COLLECTIVE PERFORMANCE UP TO THIS POINT.
AFTERWARD...THE QPF WAS COMPRISED FROM A BROADER MULTI-MODEL
BLEND...INCLUDING THE HIGHER-RES ECMWF AND
IN-HOUSE...BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE QPF. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY (LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE) ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...AS DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICAL PROFILE...THE LACK OF FOCUSED DYNAMICAL SUPPORT
AND SUBTLE UPTICK WITH 750-700 MB TEMPS (STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
CAP) WILL MORE THAN LIKELY PROHIBIT THE MORE WIDESPREAD...STRONGER
CONVECTION FROM DROPPING TOO FAR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
(TOWARD THE RED RIVER). ON THE SAME TOKEN...THERE ARE ENOUGH
MEMBERS OF THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE NSSL-WRF AND
WRF-NMM RUN FOR SPC) THAT WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MAINTAINING A
"SEE TEXT" IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK...WHICH WOULD DENOTE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES WITHIN THE MORE
WIDELY-SCATTERED HEAVIER RAIN CORES.


...UPPER MIDWEST / GREAT LAKES...

HERE...AS WITH THE CENTRAL U.S...WPC FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY
AND THE LATEST NON-NAM MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE. OF NOTE... THE NAM
WAS A PARTICULAR OUTLIER WITH A RELATIVE QPF MINIMUM OVER NORTHERN
NE-NORTHWEST IA INTO SOUTHEAST SD AND SOUTHERN MN WHERE ALL OTHER
GLOBAL GUIDANCE WERE HEAVIER (MOST OF THEM HAVING THE MAX IN THAT
AREA).

...WESTERN U.S...

ON THE LARGE SCALE A POSITIVELY TILTED...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST...WITH SMALLER SCALE CONCENTRATIONS
OF VORTICITY ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER WITH CANADA AND ALSO IN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES THROUGHOUT THE WEST WERE NEAR OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE FOR LATE MAY...SO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
NOT BE OVERLY PRODUCTIVE. BOTH GEFS PROBABILITIES AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES INDICATE GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT...0.25 INCH...RAINFALL IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS...FROM THE SOUTHERN
SIERRAS IN CALIFORNIA...ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NEVADA AND INTO
THE TETONS AND BEARTOOTH AREAS OF WY/MT. MODEL QPFS HAVE BEEN
STABLE RUN TO RUN...AND WPC MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST FOR DAY 1.

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 26/00Z
 0.01 531704 528714 524725 514747 502764 498766 492767 489762
      486758 486750 485746 484743 478745 474748 465756 457764
      452770 450776 450782 447798 443808 440808 438803 434798
      434794 435789 437775 438769 437760 438755 437748 433735
      430731 427730 423731 418731 414729 407724 400717 398712
      402710 412712 420716 429718 433717 435715 434707 432700
      433694 437685 443676 449669 457660 462653 469643 479639
      490636 495638 499643 502643 503641 506633
 0.01 540189 540178 538172 538168 534160 528156 524152 521151
      514145 508143 504142 496136 487132 482127 478124 476123
      476119 481109 483105 485105 489103 497100 499096 499090
      500085 496081 488081 485082 481082 478083 476079 477075
      480072 486068 494066 506050 513027 515013 515005 515996
      512986 509975 506944 497931 492926 488919 481902 476893
      474888 470883 468880 467875 470864 473854 478844 483836
      489825 492821 493815 493809 491802 488795 485791 482791
      478792 475795 470801 466810 464822 461832 457834 454833
      438816 426831 416832 413830 410831 406829 399830 396832
      392833 389835 384836 379836 377839 373846 370851 367853
      363854 360859 363867 357884 352892 349896 344899 341902
      335904 326906 320914 312920 309921 308924 306928 306933
      312939 317937 321937 326943 330947 326949 321958 315958
      312960 312964 314967 317969 320970 320974 320977 322979
      326982 334987 333991 333995 335997 344994 364001 371004
      380004 396001 396006 395011 395017 396021 398032 398040
      400046 403056 403065 401069 398073 399075 403077 406075
      409075 417074 419073 418076 416079 410086 404093 400099
      398111 402125 403130 404133 401133 394135 387141 382151
      370164 369167 366168 362170 358174 355179 357188 363195
      377207 380209 384211 390216 393219 392225 392230 395232
      402235 406234 410234 416235 420235 422232 418228 417224
      419221 421217 426216 430215 432212 431201 427192 427182
      427176 428160 427152 430150 431152 435160 440166 447180
      455185 458185 462183 464177 467172 472171 475174 478177
      481183 487190 491192 495195 500197 504198 505200 513207
      516210 521210 529209 535202 538196 540189
 0.01 536907 535893 534888 531886 529886 526886 523881 522874
      520870 517873 517879 516884 516892 516897 518905 521915
      524926 526929 530928 533917 536907
 0.01 508246 509239 508234 504225 500216 496210 488212 479208
      474211 470214 466216 459217 454217 449216 445216 442218
      441222 444226 448227 452227 456225 462225 468223 475219
      479219 484220 489222 492226 495235 499245 504250 508246
 0.01 333177 333175 333173 331172 330170 328170 326171 325172
      325174 325175 326176 327177 329178 330178 332178 333177
 0.01 306007 306001 303999 297000 293001 289999 285999 273999
      265000 257996 239990 235991 232994 233999 234004 243018
      245022 247024 253030 259036 263038 269038 284031 291027
      294025 296021 299011 306007
 0.01 268810 265802 264790 262778 261773 258770 248769 236771
      232772 229776 224784 221801 220805 221812 222817 224823
      226823 227827 228830 228833 227839 229836 234826 240828
      244829 251829 258826 261825 263823 266819 264817 266814
      268810
 0.25 522674 519673 516675 510683 506691 501700 496707 494712
      496719 499721 503721 511721 516720 518716 522707 525698
      527689
 0.25 492656 490654 487652 481655 475660 471667 468674 467678
      469681 475684 480681 484677 489670 492661 492656
 0.25 498021 499014 499007 497001 497995 494967 483948 479937
      477932 476925 475920 474915 469907 458891 451886 445886
      438886 435883 433878 435873 433870 428870 425872 419878
      412883 409884 407883 403880 390866 387863 383861 376862
      374866 374872 372877 370886 366894 361894 356899 351907
      348912 347917 348923 350926 353927 359927 362929 372929
      379933 382936 385940 386945 382947 378949 374953 369962
      366966 364971 366981 367987 369990 374992 378992 386988
      395984 399981 405982 406989 406996 404011 403026 404030
      406034 408035 411034 414032 420025 423025 425027 425031
      425035 424040 429039 437033 440031 445030 449034 448039
      444047 441058 438064 436066 435070 435073 438077 441080
      444084 437088 433090 427091 429098 429102 423106 423111
      426115 434119 438121 440127 443132 446132 452124 457113
      463105 463100 462095 459087 458076 460073 465070 473064
      477063 481059 484056 486049 487043 490038 494030 498021
 0.25 422202 422200 422198 420197 418198 417199 416200 415201
      414201 413202 413205 415205 417206 419205 420204 421204
      422202
 0.25 404177 401172 404165 399164 396160 387165 384170 381178
      378181 372183 367184 364186 365189 375197 380199 387201
      386197 383193 381190 381186 382183 386183 390180 396179
      404177
 0.25 352963 352960 350957 348956 345955 341956 339957 337959
      336961 335965 336967 338969 341971 344970 347969 349967
      351965 352963
 0.25 259809 256804 252800 252792 248787 244785 241784 237784
      235786 234790 236798 239803 241809 245813 247814 251813
      256811 259809
 0.25 251010 251006 250004 247002 245001 244000 240998 238999
      238002 240004 242006 245008 247009 249010 251010
 0.50 521686 520684 517684 517685 515685 512688 511692 510695
      510697 511700 514700 517698 518695 520692 520689 521686
 0.50 492015 491009 489003 482992 477989 469989 459985 456985
      455980 459974 460967 461964 464962 468963 472964 475967
      481970 482963 480957 476942 474936 472932 471926 470919
      467913 462905 453896 449893 442893 436895 431894 425894
      419895 413897 409901 406906 403915 403917 403922 409922
      411927 409933 412948 414955 416966 415972 414980 412991
      410000 408007 407015 408018 411020 415017 418011 421008
      423008 424010 430021 434023 437023 441022 444019 454017
      459015 461015 462018 463035 452059 456063 462064 473059
      476055 479046 481037 482032 488025 492015
 0.50 393172 393171 391171 391172 389172 387173 387174 389175
      391175 392174 393174 393172
 0.50 398899 398891 396885 395882 393881 390878 387874 384875
      385879 387895 387900 383898 376906 374910 371916 373922
      378924 384923 387919 387909 387905 389903 391905 394905
      398899
 0.50 391970 391962 388958 382958 377963 373967 370972 369978
      370985 373987 376986 381983 385980 389976 391970
 0.50 374191 373188 371187 370188 370190 371190 372192 374191
 0.50 359907 360905 358903 357904 355905 355906 354908 355909
      357909 358908 359907
 1.00 468053 469051 468049 467050 466053 468053 468053
 1.00 463930 461925 459926 454925 450923 443919 440918 436918
      434923 436926 439930 441935 444945 447955 449959 452959
      456949 459937 463930
 1.00 457908 455906 455905 454906 455907 456908 457909 457908
 1.00 453903 451902 450901 448901 448902 447901 447899 446899
      445899 444899 443901 442901 443904 443906 443907 445907
      446906 446905 448905 450904 451906 453903
 1.00 431976 432966 433957 433952 432947 429942 424938 420938
      417942 418949 421955 423961 423971 423975 424980 426982
      429981 431976
 1.00 381974 382972 380970 379970 378970 377970 375971 375972
      373974 373976 373979 373980 375981 377979 378978 380977
      380975 381974

$$





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