Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 081837
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
136 PM EST THU DEC 08 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 09/0000 UTC THRU DEC 10/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

GREAT LAKES

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
UPCOMING DAY 1 PERIOD ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES---WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE NORTHWEST TO WEST
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS PUSHING EAST
INTO THE NORTHEAST.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
OFF OF ALL THE LAKES THIS PERIOD---SUPPORTING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.  MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS DEPICTED FOR THE CENTRAL
U.P. OF MI---NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE L.P. OF
MI...FROM FAR NORTHEAST OH---FAR NW PA---SOUTHWEST NY STATE AND
INTO THE TUG HILL OF NY STATE.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

FAR SOUTH TX

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTH TX WILL ACCENTUATE LIFT OVER THE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THIS WILL SUPPORT
OVERRUNNING PRECIP POTENTIAL---CONFINED MOSTLY TO FAR SOUTH TX
DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD.  AT THE MOMENT---MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
THE HEAVIEST TOTALS TO REMAIN OFF THE SOUTH TX COAST---WITH
MODERATE TOTALS IN THE .10-.25"+ RANGE POSSIBLY AFFECTING FAR
SOUTH TX.

CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA

THE AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL PERSIST DAY 1 IN THE
VICINITY OF THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
KEYS AND THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE
VICINITY AND NORTH OF THIS MEAN FRONTAL ZONE---WITH UVVS ENHANCED
BY THE EASTWARD PUSH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES PUSHING EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
TO BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KEYS AND FAR SOUTH FLORIDA---WITH
LIGHTER TOTALS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.

CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA---NORTHERN GREAT BASIN---NORTHERN
TO CENTRAL ROCKIES

THE MEAN UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD DAY 1 ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TO A POSITION APPROXIMATELY 250 NM TO THE
WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BY THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD.  ONSHORE
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
CIRCULATION---IMPACTING AREAS FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA---NORTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INLAND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP LIKELY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN SIERRA---CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
RANGE AND NORTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE
WASHINGTON-OREGON CASCADES---WESTWARD TO THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON
COAST RANGES AND OLYMPIC RANGE.  INLAND---MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS
OF .25-.50"+ LIKELY IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 10/00Z
 0.01 518268 517251 516242 516237 514233 508221 506213 506205
      506198 512196 517194 517185 514170 510162 507154 448073
      447070 444070 441069 441072 451083 455087 457091 455093
      453093 443090 439090 437091 434090 431087 426084 420079
      425056 421055 419056 414059 410056 406054 402053 397052
      393059 391060 387060 382061 380062 382065 384066 385070
      382072 379073 376073 374077 384083 383081 385078 389083
      393084 394087 396090 397086 399083 401081 407078 412081
      414087 417092 421097 418104 416107 415105 412098 409096
      406096 403101 402104 398105 388111 383116 382120 382124
      388125 395125 402127 407130 408132 409136 405142 401146
      399150 411178 412181 412187 410190 410194 410197 408201
      404205 392197 383191 373184 367181 359179 352181 349187
      363193 369196 373200 383211 388214 387217 380218 377217
      376215 373209 367206 355200 347191 343190 341194 339198
      341201 343208 344215 353225 362234 372241 388247 397253
      404257 410257 423257 450258 457260 463260 468264 473268
      482278 490287 502293 507291 511284 515274 518268
 0.01 472698 470698 469694 466693 464696 460699 453702 449707
      444708 440709 438712 438717 441719 440723 435725 428727
      425729 425732 431732 437731 448729 453728 458726 462721
      465715 471704 472698
 0.01 479870 479864 478861 477852 473847 468845 466843 462843
      457840 452835 449831 447831 447834 448837 446840 442839
      437842 435845 431846 426844 420841 417837 413833 410832
      407838 407843 409845 411851 413857 415866 417868 421870
      445865 450867 454871 458874 460878 459883 454886 452887
      452892 458903 463908 467910 472897 477883 479870
 0.01 449746 446739 440737 435739 432743 429745 422744 420745
      419749 416756 418762 418767 415769 411774 406780 402783
      397788 391791 382800 378806 382808 387806 394801 398797
      402799 406806 409815 412820 416823 420818 422811 424811
      426813 430818 435823 439826 443826 445823 449817 449807
      446800 440788 438784 438779 437773 439770 449746
 0.01 417227 417225 416224 416225 415227 416227 417227
 0.01 230953 232981 232989 234994 236998 242002 256014 261015
      263009 262004 262000 264996 264991 266985 269980 272976
      285958 289949 290943 290937 290929 289924 288916 288914
      284912 279912 276915 273919 268922 263924 259927 250931
      241937 233944 231948
 0.01 281794 280788 278785 275778 269773 263769 254769 245770
      237772 233775 232778 229786 228795 221807 220812 219817
      220827 220833 219837 221845 228850 236850 240850 245851
      251857 258858 267857 273853 276851 278846 278837 278828
      278823 275821 270820 270816 266810 261817 259824 257828
      255832 253834 248836 244835 242831 242826 243821 248816
      255812 260806 267803 271804 276803 281794
 0.25 502272 502264 500255 498249 497241 501233 502228 502223
      501215 498208 495205 488202 483202 477202 466206 461206
      456209 445213 440214 435214 430212 427213 425216 423222
      424229 422231 418231 415230 414225 416217 414214 412213
      408213 404210 401206 396202 391199 380192 375189 374189
      374193 376199 380204 389212 394216 397221 396224 394225
      388224 378227 376221 372215 367216 361211 353204 349203
      348205 348210 349212 357221 361224 368228 372230 378230
      382234 387238 398245 403248 411250 422250 429250 435249
      446249 458249 464250 470252 476255 482260 490268 496274
      502272
 0.25 489231 488229 488228 487228 486228 487229 487231 488232
      489231
 0.25 456229 456228 454227 453227 452228 451229 450229 450232
      452231 454231 456229 456229
 0.25 463178 463173 459171 458167 459160 461149 459147 454145
      448140 441137 437135 435131 437125 439122 447120 451112
      451107 449103 441099 433095 428090 427103 424104 421107
      419112 416112 412110 411104 410101 407100 405104 402107
      396110 392112 390113 390116 397119 405123 412125 417126
      419129 422134 421140 419146 416148 409150 406152 405154
      407156 411157 412160 415164 420164 422164 424168 425172
      428175 425182 424188 427189 430189 433186 436183 439184
      446189 449191 452191 456187 460182 463178
 0.25 473875 473870 472868 470865 469862 467859 465858 462859
      460860 459863 459866 459869 461872 462874 464876 467878
      469879 471877 473875
 0.25 467898 467896 466895 465894 463895 462898 462900 463901
      465902 467900 467898
 0.25 456857 455852 453851 451850 448848 444849 441851 439852
      438854 436856 437859 439861 441862 444863 445863 448861
      452860 455859 456857
 0.25 438758 438755 438753 436752 435753 435754 434756 434758
      435761 436761 437759 438758
 0.25 441820 441815 440813 438811 436809 433807 431805 429805
      427806 428810 429812 430814 432817 434819 436821 439822
      441820
 0.25 420175 420173 418172 417173 416175 417176 419176 420175
 0.25 426786 424784 420785 417788 414791 412795 413801 414807
      416813 419809 420806 424802 425798 425791 426786
 0.25 428862 429859 429857 427856 426855 425854 424853 422851
      421851 420850 418850 418851 418853 418856 418858 419860
      419861 420863 421863 422864 424864 426864 428862 428862
 0.25 416073 414068 413064 409062 407058 402056 400057 400060
      398065 395069 393073 395077 401078 404074 408075 413075
      416073
 0.25 274952 274944 272939 267938 261939 250941 241946 235951
      234958 235964 239973 243976 248974 259972 267968 270963
      272958 274952
 0.25 264792 261787 256783 250782 247781 242783 238786 235792
      230804 226817 226824 226833 229839 231838 233836 237824
      240817 244811 247807 253804 259801 263796 264792
 0.50 494259 493252 491245 489241 487239 484240 481234 478230
      474230 469230 459231 450234 446235 443240 446243 451245
      460245 466246 472248 482253 491260 494259
 0.50 494217 493213 491210 485207 478206 472208 458211 447216
      440217 433219 427220 427224 430227 433230 436231 442229
      455225 459227 463226 469224 474221 481220 489222 492221
      494217
 0.50 448170 449165 449162 448158 447155 445152 443150 442148
      438146 435148 434152 435157 436160 438162 440164 441166
      443169 446171 448170
 0.50 452855 451853 449852 448851 446851 444852 443853 443855
      443856 441858 441859 442861 443861 444860 445859 446859
      448858 449858 450857 451857 452855
 0.50 430243 429239 427237 418234 414232 413229 414217 408216
      403212 398206 393201 385198 382197 379194 379197 380199
      385205 396216 402219 405223 406227 404231 400232 398233
      396235 397238 402244 406245 411246 425245 430243
 0.50 437110 437107 435107 431110 426110 422113 412113 410108
      410105 407104 404108 400110 392114 403118 413121 419122
      423124 427122 429118 430114 433111 437110
 0.50 438818 437816 437815 436813 435813 433812 433811 431811
      431812 431814 432815 433816 434817 435818 437818 438818
 0.50 418159 419156 419154 418153 417154 416154 416156 416158
      416159 418160 418159
 0.50 420797 420796 418796 418797 418798 420798 420797
 0.50 412071 412070 410068 408067 407067 406068 406070 408071
      410070 412071 412071
 0.50 401074 401073 399072 398074 399076 401074 401074
 0.50 372220 372219 370219 369219 370220 371221 372220
 0.50 365218 364216 363215 362214 360213 360212 358211 357210
      357209 355208 354207 352208 352211 353211 354213 356215
      357216 357217 359219 360219 361220 362221 364220 364219
      365218
 0.50 257795 256790 252788 245789 242791 238795 234802 231810
      230820 232825 233822 238814 243808 250802 256797 257795
 0.50 261960 261953 257949 252947 246948 241951 237955 237961
      240965 244968 252968 257966 260962 261960
 1.00 478243 480241 480239 479236 479235 478233 478232 476232
      475232 474232 472233 472234 470235 470236 470238 472240
      473241 474242 475242 476243 478243 478243
 1.00 464239 463238 462238 461238 463239 464239
 1.00 420240 420238 419237 418236 416236 414235 413235 411235
      410235 409236 408237 408239 410240 411240 412240 413240
      415240 417241 419240 420240
 1.00 400216 400213 399211 398210 398208 397207 396206 395205
      394204 392204 390204 391206 392208 392209 393210 394212
      395212 396214 397215 398215 399216 400216
 1.00 409115 408113 407112 407110 407109 405111 404111 405113
      407112 407114 408115 409115

$$





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