Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 290551
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
150 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 29/1200 UTC THRU AUG 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

MN/WI/MI
~~~~~~~~
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) ACROSS NORTHERN MN AT THIS
TIME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG A GRADIENT OF THE
MUCAPE FIELD INTO NORTHERN WI INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING AROUND NOON.  STAYED CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ARW, 00Z NSSL
WRF, AND 00Z NAM SOLUTIONS HERE, WHICH MAINTAINED REASONABLE
CONTINUITY IN MN AND LED TO SOUTHWARD SHIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MI AND WI.  ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FIRE
ALONG THE SLOW MOVING TRAILING COLD FRONT, POTENTIALLY GOING OVER
LOCATIONS WHERE HEAVY RAIN FROM THE MCS WILL FALL OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.  A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS PLANNED FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI BASED ON THIS QPF SOLUTION.


CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS/FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A WEAKENING NE/SW ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH
MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO IA WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MAINLY
DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY BUT WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LACK OF STG
LOW LEVEL FOCUS, ACTIVITY ACRS THIS REGION WILL BE HIGHLY
MESOSCALE DRIVEN AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS IS QUITE LOW.
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MOST RECENT MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WHICH SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SOLUTIONS ACROSS KS
AND WAS CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF IN WESTERN TX.  THE SOLUTION UP IN
CO WAS CLOSER TO A COMPROMISE OF THE MOST RECENT MESOSCALE AND
GLOBAL GUIDANCE.  ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY IS EXPECTED FROM
WESTERN TX AND EASTERN NM INTO KS, WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS LEADING
TO LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS, ON THE ORDER OF 2.5" AN HOUR.  BECAUSE
OF LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES CAUSED BY RECENT RAINS, A
FAIRLY LARGE SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS PLANNED FROM
WESTERN TX, EASTERN NM, AND THE FRONT RANGE OF THE CO ROCKIES.


WESTERN GULF COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE NW GULF ALONG WITH WEAK SFC REFLECTION
ALSO OVER THE NW GULF IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THIS PD AS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR SW. AGREE WITH
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IN KEEPING HEAVIER RAINS NEAR AND OFF THE
TX/LA COASTS WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT POCKETS OF
HEAVIER DIURNAL TSTMS RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DVLP NWD INTO ERN
TX/LA WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WITHIN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS.



FLORIDA
~~~~~~~
INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION #9 TRACKING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL DRAW MOIST
TROPICAL AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2.25 INCHES INTO
SOUTHERN FL WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, TO THE TUNE OF 3" AN HOUR WHERE CELLS MERGE
AND/OR TRAIN. THE 06Z WPC QPF SOLUTION IS QUITE CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND THE 12Z ECMWF.  SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR FULL DESCRIPTION OF THE
DEPRESSION AND ITS FORECAST TRACK AND STRENGTH.


COASTAL CAROLINAS/GA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WITH THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION #8, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
RAINS TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS OF NC. SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE
ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR FULL DESCRIPTION
OF THE DEPRESSION AND ITS FORECAST TRACK AND STRENGTH.
OTHERWISE...AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG WITH DECAYING FRONTAL
BNDRY IN BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.  THE 00Z WPC QPF
CONTINUITY WAS A REASONABLE MATCH TO THE ONGOING GUIDANCE, SO LET
IT RIDE.

ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 551824 551815 549805 547797 545792 530785 527785 524784
      520784 509786 507787 504785 502780 500777 497776 491776
      487775 482776 478779 472785 468793 463799 460807 453825
      436866 432874 427883 424887 421883 420876 417873 404866
      401864 397861 394856 394849 393833 397825 402816 404808
      405803 406796 405786 405778 405772 405766 406760 405755
      402757 401762 399767 397770 396767 394768 391772 387779
      382782 379786 375795 372801 368812 366820 365833 365854
      362867 359879 356884 352886 348895 339912 342919 344923
      347926 369925 373925 376927 380935 381947 377954 371963
      366969 359978 351985 344993 338997 331003 327005 322007
      313003 309001 308998 308996 317991 320990 323986 326979
      329972 332960 332949 328940 323932 317925 313920 310915
      304895 302890 302884 301878 300871 299858 300853 300848
      300845 303842 306840 314842 324852 328855 332853 338845
      344829 351805 354796 360787 367767 368757 367748 368737
      367731 364726 357721 355715 352714 331718 327720 326723
      325733 322743 319757 312764 309766 305763 301760 297758
      288757 279760 269761 254756 250758 246757 243756 238757
      234760 232763 226770 220784 217794 216808 216830 218841
      219847 221852 225859 230865 234871 239879 249891 254897
      256901 256906 256914 258919 260929 262934 263942 261950
      259956 253961 244965 242968 241973 246978 255983 260988
      262992 263995 261995 253994 251996 251000 256006 252009
      253014 254020 255024 262029 266031 261032 249032 242034
 0.01 242034 238041 235049 234056 237062 246069 250073 256077
      283091 290091 299091 306091 311093 325096 331094 335093
      337097 341100 343097 342091 344087 350086 355084 357081
      360078 363078 367078 369081 373087 376092 376100 383095
      386090 386084 389084 392086 395088 397085 398080 401078
      404073 409069 413069 415066 416057 418053 416052 412054
      408053 404052 402049 404040 407034 411029 418015 422006
      427001 435991 441986 447984 452981 457977 466964 470959
      476955 487946 496939 507927 511922 515916 519908 520899
      521891 521884 520881 518877 516873 513870 515866 520861
      525857 534848 543838 548830 551824
 0.01 529245 534220 538203 539197 538194 535188 532181 528174
      516162 515160 514154 515141 518139 522139 527137 531132
      533128 534123 533116 530113 524114 516112 514104 513100
      510099 506102 504105 502103 497097 493096 489098 486105
      484110 484115 484124 484131 482135 480137 476139 466142
      462151 459162 459165 460170 465169 476167 484169 487168
      491168 506167 508165 510166 510168 508172 510177 514192
      518207 521218 521228 516233 512232 510230 503219 500217
      497216 494216 492219 491222 492228 494238 485236 480234
      476232 474234 472239 468247 467253 464254 451261 448267
      444276 444281 446285 446294 445303 448308 452311 456310
      462306 472300 477296 483294 488292 494292 501294 506295
      513288
 0.01 497668 495655 492648 489641 485635 476625 471622 466623
      455633 451639 446643 442649 437653 434658 432665 434668
      437671 441672 447670 450667 453666 456663 460662 462664
      464668 466671 467674 469678 470684 465691 461696 454705
      449714 450716 452716 456715 458712 461708 467702 472700
      475700 477702 480708 483712 485712 490708 495696 497681
      496671 497668
 0.01 446101 447094 445092 440090 437087 432086 426086 424089
      425093 427097 430101 432104 437105 441104 444104 446101
 0.01 448073 448070 447070 445070 443069 443070 445072 446073
      448073 448073
 0.25 523264 523257 521251 519247 515243 508236 503235 500237
      500245 498249 490243 481259 467269 464273 461278 457287
      454294 455298 459298 463296 470291 478288 486285 494284
      504284 511281 517275 522266 523264
 0.25 539815 539813 538812 537811 535813 535814 534816 535819
      537818 538816 539815
 0.25 479895 480885 479876 476862 473848 470844 464845 460847
      456851 452862 449866 445870 442873 440878 439885 440891
      442904 448930 446946 446961 447964 450966 454963 460956
      465953 469949 473939 474932 474925 473919 474912 477901
      479895
 0.25 425942 426929 425917 422909 419902 417900 415901 413909
      411929 409940 406947 402954 398958 378974 366984 355992
      346999 336008 325018 319021 311022 303020 299024 296030
      292035 284039 279041 271043 263042 255043 249044 247046
      245051 247058 256070 261074 268078 275081 282083 289084
      296082 320068 332062 343059 351061 359060 366057 371053
      375054 377056 382061 385061 388060 393055 395052 396047
      391042 383040 377040 374039 375037 377029 381023 386018
      397008 405997 412985 417969 420962 422954 425942
 0.25 415896 415893 415896 415897 415896
 0.25 391794 391792 391791 389790 387791 387792 386794 385795
      384796 383797 383798 382800 381802 379808 381806 382804
      383803 384802 385801 386799 388798 389797 390796 391794
      391794
 0.25 377080 378078 377077 377076 376074 375075 375078 376080
      377080 377080
 0.25 362749 362744 361738 359732 354727 349725 344725 339725
      335725 332731 326744 325757 326765 325770 322784 287768
      261765 254765 246767 237771 232776 229781 227787 226793
      228807 226821 225835 226842 227848 231860 237869 239870
      244871 249868 260863 263858 266855 276849 284840 287836
      287830 283825 285821 286817 290814 297814 303815 309817
      315817 318821 322820 327817 330813 335808 337802 339796
      339788 339785 341783 345779 353772 357766 359759 362749
 0.25 316967 317958 316950 313939 304918 299907 293898 289893
      286890 278884 272883 270888 269900 270925 271941 269947
      267952 261961 259965 259972 263976 268978 277981 290985
      297984 301982 310975 313971 316967 316967
 0.50 520266 521258 518252 514246 510242 507240 504241 503244
      502249 500253 496252 491248 488250 488254 487260 485261
      481265 477269 475275 475278 478280 483281 494281 500282
      505281 509277 514275 518271 520266
 0.50 472897 473890 472883 471873 467863 464860 460859 454865
      450872 446881 443889 445901 447911 450920 452930 453937
      452944 451954 452959 455957 460952 466947 469940 470932
      469926 467915 472897
 0.50 421933 422931 422928 422926 421924 420924 419922 418924
      417924 417926 417928 417931 417933 417935 417936 419937
      421935 421933
 0.50 407977 405972 403970 401970 391974 377983 368990 359996
      353000 345009 331022 323028 320030 315031 308030 303032
      299044 278046 257051 254054 254059 256063 258067 267073
      276077 284081 289079 293077 300068 304058 307054 312054
      323053 327053 329051 331046 338041 342039 343044 341049
      344049 347048 350044 352042 351038 349034 350028 354018
      361012 365009 371008 381005 389999 396993 403985 407977
 0.50 388050 389047 388046 387045 385045 383046 382047 382049
      383050 384051 385052 386052 387052 388050 388050
 0.50 367050 367048 365046 363045 362046 360046 358047 356049
      355051 354053 354055 356057 357058 359058 361057 363056
      365054 366052 367050 367050
 0.50 358750 357742 355737 352732 349729 338729 335732 332736
      328745 328759 329767 328772 328776 332779 339778 343776
      349769 353764 355759 357755 358750
 0.50 330807 331805 330803 329803 327803 325804 325805 324806
      323808 322809 322810 322812 323812 324812 326811 328810
      329809 329808 330807
 0.50 309797 308791 306788 303783 298779 293776 279775 273774
      267772 259771 251773 246774 240778 236784 233789 231794
      232800 234806 232813 229827 228835 228843 229851 232858
      235864 240868 243869 246867 250863 258852 266843 270839
      273833 275827 273820 273811 275809 279808 294806 301805
      305803 309797
 0.50 310958 311951 310947 307938 300920 296912 291906 284899
      280899 279904 275923 276934 275943 271952 266958 264963
      264968 266971 270974 278977 287977 296974 300972 303969
      308963 310958
 1.00 518268 519261 518257 514250 508245 506247 504252 503256
      500258 495256 492256 488265 487268 487272 490276 493277
      500278 505276 508273 511272 516270 518268
 1.00 466900 466895 466891 465883 463877 461872 456875 454879
      449891 449898 450903 453916 455923 459927 459937 462942
      464940 464931 462926 461918 462913 466900
 1.00 349751 350745 349738 345735 341734 336736 334739 331743
      331748 333753 336756 339759 341762 344760 347756 349752
      349751
 1.00 298947 298940 297934 294922 291918 286918 284922 284929
      284936 282941 278952 272960 271962 271965 274968 279972
      283970 290963 294959 296955 298947
 1.00 292064 293060 292056 289054 281053 276053 270055 265056
      262058 262062 265066 271068 278069 283070 288068 292064
 1.00 279794 276791 272789 265785 261782 255782 246785 242788
      240791 239799 239805 238811 236820 233830 231839 232850
      235860 238865 242867 245864 247859 253840 257832 263825
      262818 259814 257810 260806 268800 276797 279794
 1.50 517265 517260 515256 511250 507250 506255 504261 502262
      496259 493259 491263 491268 492271 496275 500276 503274
      505271 507266 510267 515268 517265
 1.50 462898 462891 459886 456886 454890 453894 453901 454906
      455910 457918 459913 460906 461900 462898
 1.50 345748 345745 346743 345741 344741 342739 340739 338738
      336739 335741 334743 333745 334746 334747 335749 336751
      338751 340751 342751 343750 345748 345748
 1.50 292945 292937 292933 290935 288942 286947 283952 279957
      277962 278964 281965 285961 288956 290951 292945 290931
290931 282061 281060 280061 281062 282061
 1.50 262797 260793 257790 251790 247790 244793 245799 245807
      244815 241823 238828 234835 233842 236859 241864 244863
      245859 249845 250836 249826 251823 254820 255819 255816
      254810 254806 257801 262797
 2.00 515264 515261 514260 514258 513257 512256 511254 510254
      509254 509256 509259 509260 511262 512264 514265 515264
 2.00 503270 503269 503267 502265 501264 500263 499262 497261
      496261 494262 493264 493266 493267 494269 494270 496272
      497273 499273 501273 502272 503270
 2.00 340746 340744 339742 338742 337743 336745 337747 339747
      340746
 2.00 247849 247843 247837 244833 242831 238832 236836 235840
      235846 236850 237856 238860 242862 242857 245853 247849
      247849
 3.00 245847 245845 245843 245841 244839 242837 240837 238837
      238838 237840 237842 237844 237846 238848 238850 239852
      240853 241853 243851 244849 245848 245847
 4.00 242845 241843 240843 240845 241847 242845
$$





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