Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 251808
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
207 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 26/0000 UTC THRU MAY 27/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING AND
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.   THE TRIPLE POINT LOW
DEVELOPMENT SHIFTS THE FOCUS OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND.  VERTICAL VELOCITY MAXIMA ROTATE AROUND THE
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION INTO A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/FRONTAL ZONE
IN THE COLD SECTOR INTO VT/NH/MAINE UNTIL THE CIRCULATION MOVES
TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA FRI AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SWATH OF
MOD-HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMA
WHERE THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS SHOW ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE
WITHIN DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.  THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE

ACROSS EASTERN KY...SOUTHERN WV...AND SOUTHWEST VA...WITH THE MAIN
WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) MOISTURE HAVING PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST...LINGERING OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
AXIS/ELONGATED TROWAL WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL TOTALS ON AVERAGE OF
0.50-1.0 INCH.

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...

THE MODELS SHOW A 700 MB WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...POSSIBLY INITIATING A
FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWER/STORMS.  THE MODELS STILL VARY ON THE
CONVECTIVE INITIALIZATION/TRACK/DURATION... WITH CONSENSUS ON ONE
CLUSTER THIS EVENING FROM NEAR THE CO/NE BORDER ON EAST AND
ANOTHER DEVELOPING FRI AS THE 700 MB WAVE CROSSES IA INTO IL/WI.
THE FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE HEAVIER IN THE HIGH RES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
VS THE GLOBAL MODELS.  MANUAL PROGS INCREASED AMOUNTS A BIT FROM
CONTINUITY BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS...AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS MODEST.

...SOUTHWEST MT/ID/ADJACENT NV/UT/WYOMING...
THE MODELS FORECAST A CLOSED 500 MB LOW TO DEVELOP AS A WAVE
CROSSES FROM NEAR THE OR/ID BORDER AS IT MOVES  EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN ID TOWARDS THE WY BORDER.  THE MODELS FORECAST DEEP
MOISTURE FRI ACROSS SOUTHERN ID WITH 700-500 MB ASCENT DEVELOPING
ALONG WITH LASE RATES NEAR 7 DEG C/KM.  THE FAVORABLE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE SUPPORTS SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
700-500 MB LOW AND THEN DOWNSTREAM INTO WYOMING WITH SIMILAR
FAVORABLE MOISTURE/LAPSE RATES DURING THE DAY FRI.  MANUAL AMOUNTS
WERE BUMPED UP FROM CONTINUITY AND WERE A BLEND OF THE
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE HIGH RES
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LIKE THE NSSL WRF AND/OR WRF ARW.

PETERSEN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 27/00Z
 0.01 562085 559087 554087 546085 537084 531082 519071 510053
      505045 502037 499026 498017 496013 496009 495004 495996
      495981 492967 491963 487960 485957 482955 468950 462947
      458947 455948 447952 438955 433955 429957 421956 418955
      413955 409954 407952 402945 399936 396936 395942 393954
      389963 381963 375961 369956 363952 358946 352941 350937
      348934 350930 354922 358916 364910 369906 380896 384888
      388877 394859 397853 399850 403850 408849 411850 418854
      421856 425855 427857 428862 428867 432869 438873 445877
      450881 486878 496878 501877 504875 520873 527873 528875
      531874 534877 538884 542896 544909 546914 548918 554935
      561952 563958 563964 564970 565980 567999 567010 567021
 0.01 485614 489626 491638 491643 491648 490657 488665 485672
      481681 480693 479715 480721 482724 483736 484746 483752
      482756 481762 483766 487778 492796 494800 495805 496809
      497815 498822 494830 489836 481842 475845 471848 469848
      460849 458849 456847 452840 450838 447838 444837 440837
      433831 427826 425825 424827 423831 420837 416842 413845
      409845 404841 396838 391832 387833 382834 380833 375833
      371831 368832 367836 366834 367830 366828 364827 361831
      355838 353840 350838 351831 354823 358817 362812 372801
      377795 384790 387787 389783 389778 387774 377764 369753
      358741 349738 345734 347729 352724 357719 361712 366707
      369704 372699 380686 383680 387674 395669 401664 413654
      416650 416645 410640
 0.01 501168 501163 501155 502149 502143 500136 496130 490125
      487123 483122 481119 476119 472121 464119 462116 463113
      464108 465100 461094 455078 451071 449066 446063 439057
      436050 431036 421024 418021 420017 424008 428000 428988
      425982 419979 412977 406972 403970 399969 395967 391968
      385974 383983 383994 383002 384007 383011 375013 372015
      370019 368023 369028 371031 374033 378035 379039 379049
      380058 381062 384064 384074 383079 382085 381093 383097
      386099 388098 392098 395097 399093 399098 398102 397114
      397119 398124 401125 404126 404129 403134 401138 398140
      397147 399155 402158 405159 408160 411160 411162 414170
      414175 416179 418182 422183 423172 429166 428162 431160
      435161 435166 433174 431177 432181 433189 438194 445191
      453186 457182 461176 462168 462162 466162 469165 473167
      476164 478161 481164 484164 486166 489170 495174 499172
      501168
 0.01 445041 445038 445036 445034 443031 442031 440031 438031
      436033 436035 436038 438038 439040 440040 441041 443043
      445041 445041
 0.01 443808 443805 442803 442800 441798 440796 439794 437796
      437797 436799 434802 436804 438806 440808 442810 443808
 0.01 424973 424971 424968 424966 423966 421966 419966 417965
      416966 415966 414968 414970 414973 416975 417975 419975
      421975 422975 423975 424973 424973
 0.01 379080 380076 380071 380067 378066 377064 373063 370063
      367063 368066 369068 373069 374073 374077 375080 377082
      379080
 0.01 346187 347183 345181 343179 340177 338175 337173 335171
      332171 333174 334176 336179 337181 340183 342185 344187
      346187
 0.01 290765 289760 286757 280756 276758 268763 263766 259770
      253777 247784 242792 239801 236811 235817 234824 233829
      234835 233839 236844 240846 243843 247833 250824 257817
      262815 265811 268800 277783 284776 287772 289768 290765
 0.01 295983 293982 292982 291983 290985 289987 290987 291989
      292989 293988 294987 294985 295983 295983
 0.25 474619 475624 476630 476641 475652 475664 473685 468707
      465717 466727 466741 464750 463758 460760 453759 437755
      406763 397761 394761 392757 392751 395747 399740 399736
      398732 400729 400724 398721 395719 391720 381719 372720
      370715 371711 375703 381695 387689 391683 405671 410665
      415659 422653 429647 437641 439636 439631
 0.25 559043 560030 561015 561007 561000 559988 550971 547967
      544965 536966 533969 531973 529979 528986 527992 525995
      520004 517014 518028 520033 522036 529042 535047 540054
      543058 547059 551058 554055 558049 559043
 0.25 494932 491922 489919 484917 475916 465916 457919 454921
      450925 450928 453932 456935 460935 471935 479937 489938
      493937 494932
 0.25 454159 455150 454144 450139 447133 445128 444125 442125
      440134 441140 441147 443154 444160 447165 449165 452164
      454159
 0.25 450102 450096 449094 442090 439088 436088 432088 431085
      430078 434076 437074 440069 431066 425068 423064 421065
      418076 417085 417091 415094 411103 411110 413113 416113
      422111 431113 437110 440107 443108 447107 450102
 0.25 433923 434918 433912 430904 426897 421893 418891 413893
      410901 409910 410916 411919 416924 423928 428928 432926
      433923
 0.25 421150 422147 422145 422143 422140 422138 421135 420135
      419135 418135 417137 416138 416139 415142 415144 415146
      415149 417151 417152 418152 419152 420151 421150
 0.25 416052 414047 416038 415030 412024 409021 407021 403026
      391032 393039 395042 398041 403039 405042 406047 402051
      394052 393062 394072 396075 398076 401071 403063 405059
      409059 412059 414057 416052
 0.25 413809 411800 407794 401790 397790 393791 387795 381800
      378806 378810 380812 387810 391808 396809 402813 404814
      409813 412812 413809
 0.25 415003 415996 413993 409994 405995 402998 400002 399009
      401014 405016 408017 410012 413008 415004 415003
 0.25 392997 392995 392993 392991 391989 390990 390993 390995
      390997 390998 392997
 0.25 274781 274777 273775 270775 264776 259784 254790 250798
      248801 247806 249810 255811 258809 261805 259801 260797
      266792 271785 274781
 0.50 460624 465630 470637 471647 472660 472672 470680 468691
      465699 459705 455712 444723 443726 445727 449728 455730
      458731 460736 460742 458747 455750 452750 445747 442747
      438745 434737 431734 426734 419734 416737 414738 412737
      410735 407731 405718 403715 399715 391715 387712 389709
      405703 412698 416691 418688 417683 413677 418662 425655
      430651 439646 444640 451627
 0.50 553007 553004 553001 551000 550001 548003 548006 549008
      551009 553008 553007
 0.50 543014 542011 538013 537013 534015 532016 529018 527021
      527026 530028 533028 536027 538027 541025 543022 543017
      543014
 0.50 450156 451154 451151 451149 450147 450146 449144 447145
      446148 446150 446152 446154 447155 448156 449157 450156
 0.50 440093 440091 438090 437090 437093 438094 440095 440093
 0.50 416752 416750 416748 416745 415743 414742 413741 412741
      411741 410742 409743 408745 408747 409749 410751 412752
      413753 414754 416754 416752
 0.50 395798 396796 395795 393795 391795 390796 388797 386799
      385800 383802 382805 383806 385806 387805 388804 388803
      390801 391801 392801 393800 395798 395798
 1.00 463650 462645 460643 457646 455651 450655 446655 443657
      435661 428666 426670 426673 428679 428684 427694 426705
      426710 427714 431715 435713 440711 442709 446700 446690
      449682 451672 454670 456675 459684 462683 464678 465674
      465669 463655 463650
 1.50 435686 435682 433679 432679 431682 430686 430690 429695
      430697 431699 434700 435696 435693 435688 435686

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