Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 281902
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
201 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 01/0000 UTC THRU MAR 02/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

MID MS VALLEY---OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC

SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD IN THE BROAD WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN U.S. WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED EAST NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION FROM THE MID MS VALLEY/LOWER MO VALLEY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD---INTO THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY.  THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
MAX QPF AXIS---WITH .25-.50"+ LIQUID EQUIVALENTS AND POTENTIAL FOR
A STRIPE OF HEAVY SNOWS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN MO---ACROSS
SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL IL--MOST OF IN---OH INTO PA AND THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF NY STATE.  WHILE THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE MOVING OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY---LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC---SUPPORTING LATE SEASON SIGNIFICANT ICING THREAT FROM
THE UPSTATE OF SC---THROUGH WESTERN NC---WESTERN VA INTO
MD---SOUTHEAST PA AND SOUTHERN NJ.  THE MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE MORE
VARIABLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THAN UPSTREAM OVER THE OH VALLEY.
A COMPROMISE SOLUTION TOWARD THE GFS WAS PREFERRED OVER THE WETTER
NAM AND THE DRIER ECMWF ACROSS THIS AREA.

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY

STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
INTENSITIES FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE MS VALLEY.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH HOW QUICKLY PRECIP
PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.  THE HI RES ARW AND CMC GEM ARE FASTER AND WERE
FOLLOWED AS THEY SEEM TO FIT THE ONSHORE FLOW AXIS BETTER.  THE
FASTER DOWNSTREAM PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COAST
USUALLY VERIFIES BETTER WHEN THERE ARE MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES
AND THE FASTER SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE FAST FLOW
ALOFT.  AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE AMOUNTS IN THE .25-.50" RANGE
DEPICTED--WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS.

FLORIDA INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST.

ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL PERSIST ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FL PENINSULA IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.  LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINS HAVE OCCURRED NEAR THIS FRONT
IN THE AXIS OF EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.
THIS ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
DAY 1---LIFTING FARTHER NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
AND INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST.  CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
QPF DETAILS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS CONCENTRATED ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST TO REFLECT THE
NORTHEAST PUSH OF THE BEST ONSHORE FLOW.  LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS
POSSIBLE IN THIS AXIS AND COULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED RUNOFF
ISSUES FROM SLOW MOVING CELLS.

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA---SOUTHWEST--SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES

THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL SINK
ONLY SLOWLY SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DAY 1.  AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL PERSIST
DAY 1 ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS CLOSED LOW FROM THE NORTHERN
BAJA/FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA---INTO THE SOUTHWEST---SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS IN
THE FAVORED AREAS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE ROCKIES FROM
WESTERN TO SW CO INTO NW NM.  AWAY FROM THE MAX PRECIP
AREAS---MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS IN THE .10-.25" RANGE
POSSIBLE---WITH SLIGHTLY HEAVIER TOTALS OF .25-.50"+ IN THE COAST
RANGE OF FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 519271 520264 520259 521251 519247 514240 509235 504228
      502225 498223 495225 494228 497236 500245 494248 492245
      487243 483242 480243 479246 480252 486259 492274 496283
      498287 501289 505289 508287 511285 513282 517276 519271
 0.01 501944 501933 497929 488919 484913 482911 479911 473914
      470920 470925 467927 462932 459937 455944 454947 455949
      457957 462961 467962 482962 494957 497953 501944 501944
 0.01 449741 443730 440725 437722 432716 427710 423706 418704
      412703 411701 407702 397709 390716 382724 372731 364738
      344756 327771 314774 309777 303778 280786 266791 258793
      255795 253797 251802 252806 254808 256814 255816 257818
      258823 261826 266830 271832 284832 297830 300829 303830
      308835 310836 312839 319839 325838 330842 334847 339849
      344849 349847 352844 355839 364831 367830 369833 366838
      353861 344870 330872 319876 315878 309879 298882 287887
      281891 274893 270898 266902 265909 267914 269920 266925
      264930 265938 265941 266943 265946 263947 257951 257958
      259963 261967 267971 273974 285980 290982 298981 303980
      310980 319984 326993 329999 333003 341008 349009 355005
      364996 369986 371981 372977 373974 374971 376973 378979
      382981 386979 392968 396957 402941 405934 409929 412926
      415919 419914 421909 424898 427891 427883 425852 426841
      428834 431816 437790 440776 443764 446749 449741
 0.01 418156 419151 417149 414148 411145 407138 407132 409129
      414123 416121 417117 414104 412095 413085 416074 416067
      416063 413057 407052 395047 389045 381044 365045 356046
      351048 351055 349061 347064 348068 349072 348077 347081
      342082 337076 335073 333075 328078 325084 324091 325094
      323098 318101 310104 311109 313112 318112 320112 321115
      319117 318126 318130 320134 322134 323137 319142 306149
      299149 295152 292160 291169 290178 291180 295181 310180
      318180 321181 323184 328196 329201 330204 333209 349212
      359221 361220 365222 369222 371220 372218 371214 368209
      362202 361198 363195 367194 370196 375201 380205 385210
      390214 394215 396217 399216 401216 402214 404211 405205
      404197 406187 407177 411169 416163 418156
 0.25 423794 424783 422773 420759 419749 414744 408744 400746
      395750 390755 387760 386765 387770 391776 391779 389781
      383785 376785 370783 339792 331792 325790 317790 310791
      295795 277796 272800 272803 274805 277811 282815 294818
      302819 312819 320820 325823 335829 382809 384811 384815
      385822 385831 383840 383860 382868 380875 377891 375901
      374911 375920 377922 379922 387929 390933 392934 396930
      403913 410882 413866 414855 415844 416835 417827 420811
      422801 423794
 0.25 407072 408067 407063 402058 389060 385059 382061 377057
      371054 365051 359053 357056 358060 357066 358071 360076
      352106 349103 345096 341090 336089 332103 332109 334115
      338120 342128 347132 353132 359130 366130 372130 374127
      374123 369119 367116 367110 369102 372095 384090 391088
      396085 407072
 0.25 339181 338172 336167 332165 327159 318155 310154 306156
      303159 304163 308166 315170 324174 331179 334183 338183
      339181
 0.25 329915 329909 328904 326898 319891 314890 309892 293899
      290900 287904 286908 287910 290913 292916 293923 291927
      291933 291939 288943 283948 280951 279956 280960 282964
      286966 292965 299962 307957 311949 314946 317943 320935
      325927 326921 329915
 0.50 415797 414790 413784 409780 404781 398789 396800 396814
      394826 392837 391849 391863 388873 386877 385886 385897
      387901 394901 396897 398892 401881 403870 407847 409834
      410822 415798 415797
 0.50 403072 404068 402066 396065 391066 388070 385076 381074
      376064 372060 366059 364062 366066 369069 372074 373080
      376084 381083 388086 396080 403072 403072
 0.50 359120 356115 349111 345105 342098 338093 337102 335107
      337112 341118 344124 347126 351126 357124 359120
 0.50 329166 327164 325163 322161 320160 317159 313158 310158
      309160 309162 312164 314165 317167 321167 325168 326167
      329166
 0.50 314913 315911 313910 312911 311911 311913 312915 313914
      314913
 0.50 310924 310922 311920 310918 309918 308916 306916 304917
      303918 303919 302920 303921 304922 304924 305924 306926
      308925 310924 310924
 1.00 376073 376071 376070 376069 375066 373064 371063 370063
      369063 369065 370066 371067 372068 373069 374071 374072
      376073 376074 376073
 1.00 350119 351117 349114 348112 347112 346110 346109 344107
      343106 341106 341107 340109 340111 342113 342114 344115
      345116 347117 349118 350119 350119

$$





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