Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 210646
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 21/1200 UTC THRU JUL 22/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHEASTERN/SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES...

ANOTHER DAY OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION..IN
ADVANCE OF THE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE H5 TROF NOW STRETCHING FROM THE
LOWER OH VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
AHEAD OF THIS H5 TROF..THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST..WITH
PWS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THRUOUT MUCH OF
THE AREA.  ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS H5 TROF AND WEAKER
S/WVS LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF IT..ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING..SHOULD LEAD TO THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION..ESPECIALLY
FROM LATER MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY EVENING.  FOR THE MOST PART
THE MODEL QPFS WERE IN REASONABLY DECENT AGREEMENT HERE..AND
FOLLOWED THEM WITH AT LEAST AN AXIS OF AREAL AVERAGE 0.50-1.00
INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL
PENINSULA UP THRU SOUTHERN GA AND CONTINUING INTO SC..WITH
ISOLATED HEAIVER TOTALS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE IN
PLACE.


...NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE/MCS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THRU THIS REGION
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS H5 S/WV ENERGY TURNING MORE
EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES REACHES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THRU THE UPPER
MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO MN LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE REGION
SHOULD FOCUS THE CONVECTION..WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET BRINGING HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM AND WITH PWS
EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO POOL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.  IN GENERAL..ALL OF THE MODEL
QPF GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT..ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME MOSTLY LATITUDE
DIFFERENCES ON JUST WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR.  THE
UKMET..CANADIAN AND NAM MODELS WERE CONSIDERED NORTH AND WEST
OUTLIERS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS..WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO
BE SUFFERING FROM FEEDBACK PROBLEMS AND WAS NOT STRONGLY
CONSIDERED.  THE SUITE OF HIRES QPF GUIDANCE..INCLUDING THE
ARW..NMMB AND NSSL WRF WERE THE PREFERRED SOLUTIONS WITH THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST..WITH THE
OLD ECMWF HIRES ALSO IN THIS CAMP.  VERY HIGH MOISTURE AND INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES WILL SUPPORT AN AXIS OF AT LEAST 1-2+ INCH AREAL
AVERAGE RAINS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN ND EASTWARD INTO MN AND
NORTHWESTERN WI..WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE..IN
SPITE OF WHAT SHOULD A GENERALLY FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM.


...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

EXPECT THE GENERAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
EVENING AT LEAST..AS A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
IN THE INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE LINGERING
UPPER TROF OFF THE CA COAST AND THE STRONG UPPER LOW DROPPING
SOUTHWARD OFF THE B.C. COAST.  CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS HANDLING
OF THE SMALL S/WV DETAILS IS RATHER LOW..SO DON`T HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE FINER MODEL QPF DETAILS OVER THE AREA.   AS A
RESULT..HAVE CONTINUED TO TRY AND MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BLENDED IT ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE..LEADING TO AN AREA OF GENERALLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE RAINS FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN NV AND SOUTHEASTERN OR THRU
SOUTHERN ID AND INTO NORTHWESTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN MT.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 22/12Z
 0.01 532211 534203 534196 534188 533182 533174 532166 531154
      528142 525131 522120 517111 515106 512102 508099 505099
      503103 502112 501120 502127 503132 505139 505145 504150
      498158 497165 496174 498178 501183 508190 510193 512201
      514205 518207 520208 522210 525214 528215 532211 532211
 0.01 515267 516263 516260 515253 512248 509243 505240 502235
      500239 501246 503251 504253 503257 497251 490244 490249
      492254 493260 495265 500269 504273 507274 511272 515267
 0.01 502072 502066 499063 494062 493053 489023 491008 495993
      497980 498973 497965 496948 498917 499897 499874 498859
      495844 490838 484839 474853 468865 465870 462873 454880
      448887 440894 434901 431904 427909 425914 426919 427922
      429926 434929 448945 452955 454969 455983 457996 454008
      452026 450041 448048 446052 434073 434079 435083 434087
      433090 431091 428091 425116 420128 415139 414146 412149
      409149 404149 401150 399155 398161 396169 393174 386182
      385186 383188 378189 382198 383202 385204 388207 394210
      397213 398216 398220 396224 391233 388238 387241 388244
      393242 397238 400235 403234 406236 411239 414244 419242
      421240 423233 426230 430226 434225 443223 446220 446216
      445208 446203 448197 453193 467179 470175 473170 474164
      475158 474151 473148 468144 464144 462146 461148 459145
      459143 461141 464136 470135 476129 482119 492097 498084
      502072
 0.01 486725 481718 475723 467728 455731 451730 446731 439736
      430741 425744 422746 414761 407769 398774 395775 393773
      388773 381770 373766 366762 359758 356756 350756 346756
      341758 338756 333756 329758 326762 320768 315770 310770
      300774 295775 293777 283780 271783 263787 257788 254790
      245796 240802 238810 242816 245824 248828 252830 260836
      274846 275851 275857 275867 277876 277889 276900 276915
      277927 280936 286943 290945 292944 294941 296937 301936
      305925 305911 304905 302900 303893 305888 314875 317872
      321870 329867 339869 344869 350869 355863 361855 366847
      370840 374832 379824 382821 386818 395812 400811 404809
      408808 412804 419798 423791 427784 433776 447763 461752
      475739 481732 486725
 0.01 489063 489054 487050 486046 483045 480050 473059 469058
      467053 464053 459055 455058 454066 458070 460074 463079
      466082 472086 476084 479078 480072 484067 488064 489063
 0.01 451151 450147 449149 447151 445155 443155 440156 439161
      440166 443164 445162 446160 448157 449153 451151
 0.01 420216 420212 416211 414212 412214 410216 408220 407225
      405226 406230 408229 410227 412225 414223 416221 418218
      420216
 0.01 410169 411162 411157 409155 407159 405163 404170 402174
      401181 399185 398189 403188 405184 406179 408173 410169
 0.01 395025 395017 395012 394010 390008 383008 377008 371009
      365009 360009 352017 346026 338034 335036 331040 327043
      321041 318041 315039 310038 305039 302043 307051 310056
      316058 321061 326062 340063 350060 370053 373050 376044
      384036 390030 395025
 0.01 338095 339089 338084 336081 333077 329076 325078 321080
      321083 326084 330086 331090 333095 336097 338095
 0.01 317110 316105 313098 306089 302078 300073 297069 292065
      290062 292060 296056 298055 298050 295052 292053 288053
      278049 273046 269046 267047 262048 254048 249046 243046
      242049 242054 246057 251060 255065 259075 263078 265084
      269087 274085 278087 283091 292098 299106 307113 314113
      317110
 0.01 280061 279060 277059 275061 277062 279062 280061
 0.25 491927 491916 491904 488886 487876 484869 481867 477869
      471873 462881 453891 450896 448908 450918 454931 456943
      457954 457968 458981 459999 460012 462019 464026 469031
      472033 476033 479026 481018 486002 488994 489986 488977
      485969 485964 485958 487949 489938 491927
 0.25 464114 465107 464104 460101 454098 451096 448097 441101
      437107 437110 438114 440117 442120 445128 449126 453124
      456124 460123 462121 464114
 0.25 423172 424169 425167 425165 425162 424162 423161 421161
      421162 419164 418166 417168 416169 416170 416172 415175
      416175 417177 419177 421176 421175 422174 423172 423172
 0.25 365784 365778 363774 360771 355769 351769 346769 339773
      329776 320781 306792 304795 305801 305804 304807 299809
      289809 280808 272805 269801 270796 266795 261796 255802
      252804 251806 252809 257818 263823 271826 279829 285831
      287834 285845 284856 285880 288887 293887 295882 299874
      303866 309859 315854 321848 330843 335842 340841 343842
      346841 349837 353830 356820 360810 362800 362795 363790
      365784
 0.50 486934 486925 486914 485897 483877 480873 474875 466883
      460890 455897 454907 456918 458934 460952 459969 460985
      462007 465016 467021 469024 472024 476020 479014 483000
      485993 485982 483975 481972 481967 484949 486934
 0.50 452115 453112 453110 453107 453105 452102 451101 449101
      448101 447102 446104 445106 445108 444111 445112 445113
      447116 448118 450117 452115 452115
 0.50 350789 348784 345782 343783 338786 336782 331785 327789
      320797 314806 308814 304817 300822 299834 293844 292849
      291858 291863 292870 294871 296870 299865 307843 308837
      311832 322829 326825 330822 336821 340825 344825 348821
      350815 347807 350789
 0.50 285819 284817 281815 279814 275814 271814 268814 264815
      263819 266820 268820 272821 276821 278822 281821 284821
      285819
 1.00 481937 480924 481912 475890 473887 470888 466892 465897
      462907 462916 464930 463944 462955 461971 463989 467007
      470008 472004 475994 477989 478982 476972 476959 481937
 1.50 476934 474931 471932 467937 465942 463957 463971 464985
      467991 468995 472991 474987 474982 472977 472972 473959
      475947 476934
 2.00 470957 471949 471945 469941 468943 467947 466963 465967
      465971 467974 467979 468981 470981 469977 469972 469967
      469962 470957

$$





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