Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 181842
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 19/0000 UTC THRU OCT 20/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NEW ENGLAND DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

A PROGRESSIVE AND MODESTLY AMPLIFIED H5 TROF..WITH 2 WELL DEFINED
H5 S/WVS ROTATING THRU THE TROF..WILL LEAD TO RATHER WIDESPREAD
BUT MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD.
THE LEAD S/WV LIFTING THRU NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL SUPPORT SOME LOCAL 0.25-0.50 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHERN ME..OTHERWISE THE TRAILING
S/WV AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS..LESS THAN 0.25 INCH..ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.


...SOUTHERN TX/LOWER TO MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

RATHER PERSISTENT BUT WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH
INCREASING PWS FROM SOUTHERN TX UP INTO THE LOWER/MID RIO GRANDE
VALLEY SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINS
THIS PERIOD.   THE HI RES GUIDANCE..INCLUDING THE ARW..NMMB AND
NSSL WRF CONTINUE TO BE HEAVIER WITH THEIR QPFS THAN THE REMAINDER
OF THE GUIDANCE..AND AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER DID..LEANED TOWARDS
THE IN-HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN QPF TO MITIGATE THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE HI RES AND OTHER MODELS.  SOME 0.25-0.50
AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY IN THE LOWER/MID RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AREA.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE NEXT EASTERN PACIFIC H5 TROF WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS IT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.  IT APPEARS THE
TROF WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND BE PRECEDED BY A MOSTLY
NON-FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME TO KEEP MOST OF THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS JUST OFF THE COAST AND UP INTO B.C.  ONLY
SOME 0.25 INCH RAINS EXPECTED IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN WA.


...SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES...

THE NEXT SOUTHERN BRANCH H5 SYSTEM REACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND ATTEMPTING TO PUSH INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY
LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH..AS
DID THE DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN HI PLAINS.
THUS..STUCK WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH THIS FEATURE.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 20/00Z
 0.01 522267 523253 520244 516235 511226 505220 496217 492218
      489220 488224 488229 487235 483232 475229 472231 470236
      469238 466238 463238 446240 431245 424249 418254 416258
      414264 412269 408270 395280 389285 387289 388292 393295
      398295 402294 405295 415294 424295 439294 457294 461294
      464295 465297 463299 464305 466310 469314 472316 476316
      484315 491311 503301 513291
 0.01 529202 530199 530197 529195 529194 528192 527191 527189
      526188 525186 524185 522185 521186 520187 519188 519191
      519194 520196 521198 522200 524201 525202 527203 528203
      529202
 0.01 541939 541928 538920 536914 531907 527903 524897 521889
      517884 513878 509874 505869 502867 499867 489861 477857
      471855 464856 460856 458858 455860 454864 449878 450885
      451890 453894 456898 461901 465901 467903 472907 476909
      477914 479920 486919 490915 494915 496917 500922 505928
      509932 517942 527949 533950 537947 539944 541939
 0.01 509671 508666 506662 501659 495658 490659 482662 476665
      469667 466667 464663 465653 464645 460641 457641 454644
      450650 447657 443671 442675 443681 443686 441689 439692
      438697 438705 438708 438713 435718 423728 420733 426736
      432737 434739 432742 420745 415750 412752 410755 412771
      411775 409777 404782 398787 392790 384792 380796 361814
      357819 354825 353829 354832 357830 361824 365823 368826
      369830 373830 381827 384825 388824 396823 399823 401820
      403817 407815 410810 417799 424785 426777 430772 438761
      445750 448748 449745 451738 452728 458724 460721 463718
      466716 469715 475711 482709 485708 488705 493699 498693
      501688 506680 509671
 0.01 393066 393062 392061 385060 381062 378061 378057 381056
      381051 372045 367036 363037 360038 359041 357048 352050
      347052 341052 335050 330048 326049 322053 325059 329063
      332063 332065 326065 324063 321063 319063 318065 314062
      312059 308055 303053 292050 287051 285054 283059 285062
      289066 291071 293077 294081 297086 303088 307090 310094
      317103 321106 326107 327101 330099 333100 337102 340107
      343112 345116 348121 352124 355129 357130 358120 355115
      351112 350108 351105 356102 358107 363110 368110 371107
      366098 366091 364085 364079 369078 372079 373081 375086
      382088 382092 380094 385095 389090 390081 391072 393066
 0.01 231989 235999 240003 245006 251008 254011 258015 263017
      269020 272024 277027 285027 290029 297030 308034 313038
      317038 319035 319031 318028 315024 313018 311012 307008
      299001 292991 286982 286977 283974 279973 275970 272966
      265965 245955 239945 237943 234944 231948 231951
 0.25 517278 519268 519259 515244 512238 509232 503229 500229
      498232 495239 490241 479243 468247 458250 452252 447254
      440265 438268 441270 448271 460271 465271 472272 485276
      490280 490284 488286 483291 479293 474298 473301 474305
      478307 483307 493302 502296 511289 515283 517278
 0.25 516916 516913 516910 515908 513906 512905 510905 510908
      510909 511911 511913 512915 512916 513917 515918 516916
 0.25 492679 487674 482675 475679 469684 464690 463693 462698
      464701 467702 475700 480696 486690 490684 492679
 0.25 382076 382074 382072 382071 380069 378070 377071 377073
      378075 378076 379078 381077 382076
 0.25 316090 316088 315088 313086 312087 311088 313090 314090
      315091 316090
 0.25 295014 295010 293008 287004 283997 280991 274987 266984
      261982 255976 250972 243970 238970 235972 234981 235989
      239995 245998 253001 260004 267007 274008 280012 287016
      295014
 0.50 518270 518261 516254 510241 505236 501238 497245 490244
      485247 480251 477257 476262 478266 489273 492276 493279
      493284 492289 492295 494297 499295 509288 513284 517275
      518270
 0.50 479686 478684 477685 475686 474687 472689 471690 470691
      469694 471695 473694 474692 475692 476691 477689 479687
      479686
 0.50 262994 259992 253991 251988 248984 246981 242978 238979
      237983 237988 238992 242994 248994 251992 257993 260995
      262994
 1.00 514277 516270 516262 513253 511249 506245 500251 492250
      489252 485256 485262 488265 492269 494272 497283 498287
      502288 509285 512281 514277
 1.50 510281 512271 512262 512258 510255 505257 500256 493254
      489257 490263 495268 497273 500280 502283 506283 510281
 2.00 508280 508275 508270 506268 505266 502262 501261 498259
      494258 493261 494264 496267 497271 499274 500276 501278
      504281 508280
 3.00 504276 504273 503270 502270 501268 500267 498268 499271
      501273 501275 502275 503276 504276

$$





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