Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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071
FXUS04 KWBC 220701
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 22/1200 UTC THRU JAN 23/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...EASTERN U.S...

A DEEP AND GRADUALLY PROGRESSING CLOSED LOW...PRECEDED BY A BROAD
AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS AND WARM ADVECTION...WILL DRIVE BOTH SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD THREATS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES FROM
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WAS FAIRLY GOOD
LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING...BUT
CERTAINLY A LOT OF DETAIL AND CONVECTIVE DETAIL THE INCREASES THE
COMPLEXITY. THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN UNDER-PLAYING THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IN THIS PATTERN...AND JUDGING BY
OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE WPC CONTINUED TO FAVOR SOURCES SUCH AS THE
GEM REGIONAL...NAM CONUS NEST...AND EXPERIMENTAL NAM CONUS NEST
WHAT REPRESENT A BETTER EXTRAPOLATED FORECAST FROM THE EARLY RADAR
TRENDS AND THE HRRR...ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND FLORIDA.

WE ALSO NOTED A TREND TOWARD A DEEPER SURFACE LOW TRACKING FARTHER
SOUTH...REACHING EASTERN ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. WE INCREASED QPF
ALONG THIS TRACK...BUT MAY INCREASE IT FURTHER FOR THE FINAL
FORECAST IN COORDINATION WITH WFO HUN AND OTHERS.


...WESTERN U.S...

THE BARRAGE OF SYSTEMS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. CONTINUES
SUNDAY...WITH 12-HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF AT LEAST 40 METERS
EXCTENDING BORDER TO BORDER / CANADA TO MEXICO...AND SUPPORTING
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION FOR NEARLY EVERY LOCATION WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE EVENT WILL AGAIN BE
ESPECIALLY WELL FOCUSED IN CALIFORNIA...WITH A LOCAL MAXIMUM OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND MOISTURE FLUX PROGRESSING STEADILY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GEFS 850-700 MB U-WIND
COMPONTENT / ONSHORE FLOW / ANOMALIES ARE MORE GREATLY FOCUSED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST  AND THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS
TODAY. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.00 INCH AGAIN PUSH
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH ANOMALOUS VALUES APPROACH A HALF
INCH EXPANDING NOT QUITE TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY MORNING
MORNING. OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IN
THE FAVORED COASTAL MOUNTAIN CHAINS...SOUTHERN SIERRAS...AND TO
SOME EXTENT IN THE INTERIOR GREAT BASIN...INCLUDING NORTHERN
NEVADA WHERE WE BOOSTED FORECAST TOTALS A BIT OWING TO SOME OF THE
CONSENSUS TOOLS AND ANALOG EVENTS. OVERALL...THERE WAS LITTLE
LARGE SCALE CHANGE TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST...AND MODEL QPF
AGREEMENT IS ABOVE AVERAGE. WE DID FAVOR SOME OF OUR DOWN-SCALED
CONSENSUS TOOLS AND THE GEFS REFORECAST DATA TO YIELD LOCAL
INCREASES...ADDING ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES OF AREAL AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN PARTS OF CA/NV/UT.

THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS PARTICULARLY PRONOUNCED TODAY ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM MONTEREY TO SAN DIEGO...BUT ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MULTIPLE HI-RES MODELS PRODUCE HOURLY RAIN
RATES GREATER THAN 0.75 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF SANTA
BARBARA...AND GIVEN RECENT STORM SYSTEMS IN RAPID SUCCESSION...THE
AREA MAY BE MORE PRONE TO RAPID RUNOFF. IN SANTA BARBARA AND
VENTURA COUNTIES THE NATIONAL WATER MODEL...FORCED BY GFS
QPF...PRODUCES A TRANSITION FROM MUCH BELOW NORMAL STREAM FLOW TO
HIGH FLOW IN ONLY A 3 HOUR WINDOW EARLY SUNDAY.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 527886 527872 526858 524849 521839 513829 503821 494817
      486815 484813 480814 475812 470807 465803 462800 454798
      446800 440810 432801 428784 427774 426770 425768 424763
      422760 421751 422741 426739 431738 441745 450754 450749
      449746 448739 446736 445731 443729 438726 430716 429711
      426709 423715 421722 417723 415718 408681 405672 401669
      397671 393673 387678 370697 362707 350716 340724 329731
      322735 315739 307751 302757 296759 281762 269768 262771
      257775 251779 246783 239791 230803 225817 224823 228830
      231835 237836 236838 238840 244841 252842 256847 264858
      270861 271865 273870 273876 276885 278895 282900 288911
      292916 297918 301920 305920 313920 318921 320923 324927
      332938 333941 333946 336950 340957 343965 344969 346971
      352976 355978 358979 364976 371974 375972 385964 389959
      393952 397938 400922 401910 402900 403890 402877 402868
      403862 405864 413864 419863 430852 438843 444840 448839
      451841 459847 465854 467856 470855 473853 475850 476853
      479860 481870 481878 482899 483907 487912 492915 501914
      513918 519918 522913 524904 525897 527886
 0.01 504265 507247 509229 510221 510217 509216 509210 510205
      511196 509192 508187 506181 504158 505142 503135 500130
      496121 494117 491114 484113 477121 474120 472118 471113
      468105 463104 461109 463113 464120 463124 463130 460133
      455132 452131 450129 451123 455122 456120 454113 452102
      449097 445095 436089 432086 429083 425075 420068 414061
      405056 402055 398057 394058 387057 382058 378061 370056
      368053 364051 359053 357056 356069 354073 356076 357083
      355086 354094 354100 353105 349105 342100 339097 336099
      333121 333128 334133 337139 340140 341143 339148 335152
      331154 322154 313151 307151 302151 299152 296156 297161
      299165 303172 308180 311185 311192 312202 316209 321215
      322219 325222 333229 344232 350234 355236 366238 380249
      399259 416266 427267 437266 448269 457272 468276 472279
      477281 483278 486277 487272 491271 494272 498271 504265
 0.01 451819 449817 449816 447814 445812 444815 446817 447819
      448819 449821 451819
 0.25 492199 493193 491188 487185 483186 479188 476191 473201
      471203 470203 465202 461204 459208 457214 456221 460224
      464222 469215 471211 475212 484210 487208 490203 492199
 0.25 499883 499880 499878 498875 497875 497878 497881 497883
      498885 499883
 0.25 474255 471245 475242 475239 474237 460240 426230 431219
      431213 428208 420191 420184 423176 424165 424158 425152
      427147 429150 430156 434160 439162 444166 445170 446174
      443175 439177 437181 436189 437194 440194 443190 453175
      453169 451163 446153 444148 442144 441133 442127 444124
      446116 445110 442107 439104 435101 432097 429094 427093
      427097 426101 423102 420104 417108 414109 410106 409101
      407097 404095 402100 397100 394096 393094 391097 393106
      392111 393117 397120 403122 407121 409121 410123 412133
      411138 408142 401146 396146 393142 386138 384133 380132
      379130 379121 378116 375116 371118 362120 361123 358125
      355127 353131 352143 349150 347158 346161 343161 332162
      327160 321159 317160 314163 314167 316172 319181 320186
      322189 325198 326204 328208 330213 335216 343221 352224
      360229 370233 380237 387243 396248 402251 409252 418253
      428255 444257 463259 470258 474255
 0.25 403706 402698 401692 398688 393687 387691 382696 377702
      370708 357718 350724 341729 329738 322743 317748 306760
      300766 295768 289768 281769 275773 262780 249791 243797
      238806 235814 236819 237822 268831 273839 275844 279845
      287848 289856 292864 292870 299884 296895 297897 300894
      312884 317884 320890 322899 328903 335904 340906 343909
      347919 345923 345929 345935 346940 348944 354944 362941
      369940 377937 380934 382930 386920 388910 387900 385889
      385877 384871 384866 385856 387851 390847 398842 404837
      407834 408829 408819 407814 404811 399805 401797 404792
      405788 404783 402778 397771 395768 395761 399754 403747
      405743 404736 404727 403706
 0.25 387180 387179 385178 385177 383176 382174 381174 380176
      381179 381180 382181 383182 384182 385182 386181 387180
 0.25 380096 378090 376089 377086 378082 379078 376072 375065
      370063 367063 368066 370073 370080 373086 375087 375091
      375096 376099 380096
 0.25 365200 364199 363197 362197 361196 360194 359194 357193
      356193 354192 353193 354194 355195 355196 357198 358199
      360199 362200 364201 365200
 0.25 354120 354119 354117 352116 351115 349115 347116 347118
      348120 350121 352122 353122 354121 354120
 0.50 446246 446242 444240 437242 434243 431241 427237 420233
      417231 417227 418216 418211 417209 414190 410189 409185
      410179 412174 415172 417161 421147 420144 417145 410150
      400156 399159 400164 398171 396170 396174 399180 399184
      398189 394190 389189 383185 378181 376175 374165 375155
      379151 384151 386154 383160 381167 384172 388176 392172
      398154 378134 377125 376122 372122 370125 369130 364132
      361134 361138 364141 362147 358151 355153 355156 357164
      353169 350171 346170 343164 328162 324161 320162 319168
      322175 325182 328194 331202 336209 341214 346217 359225
      366227 374229 379229 383231 388238 392242 400245 414248
      422250 430251 440249 444248 446246
 0.50 433111 433109 431107 429107 428111 427108 425108 421111
      417112 412111 409109 407104 404105 400109 399113 401116
      406117 410117 412120 416128 420128 423124 428118 433111
 0.50 420202 419201 418200 416201 417203 419202 420202
 0.50 403228 403226 402223 400222 398222 397221 395220 393219
      393218 392218 391218 390219 389220 389222 391224 393225
      393226 394226 396227 398227 399228 401228 403229 403228
 0.50 394722 394715 393709 393703 391700 388700 386701 384703
      379707 365716 355725 339733 334738 327742 322745 318750
      308762 303768 299770 293770 284771 280773 269779 257789
      250794 244799 241805 240810 241814 249813 255815 260821
      267823 272823 276824 279827 281831 286835 289837 289842
      295846 295852 297855 300857 303854 306848 310841 313838
      318837 322838 323841 320847 314861 309865 305871 303881
      302885 305886 316878 319876 324876 327878 327882 326891
      328893 331895 335896 339895 341892 341885 344878 347872
      361874 368872 371864 373856 378849 386837 389831 390826
      390821 386811 388801 390798 393795 396792 397787 393780
      389774 385770 385763 386760 393748 395741 395734 394722
 0.50 368203 367201 365198 363195 361194 358192 356191 352190
      352193 353195 354198 357199 360201 362202 365204 368203
 0.50 382916 383906 381900 374889 370885 368883 365884 360887
      357892 356899 359903 362910 359915 355920 352925 350932
      350936 354938 357937 362934 366931 371929 377927 380922
      382916
 1.00 426244 426242 426241 424239 423238 421237 419237 418237
      417237 416238 415239 415240 415241 416244 418245 420245
      421245 422245 423246 425245 426244
 1.00 413224 413217 408216 405209 402201 402198 400196 397197
      391196 385191 374181 365177 360175 356175 352182 349183
      347181 345171 343167 341165 333165 325163 335193 337203
      341209 347214 355218 359220 364222 373222 375219 376216
      373214 369212 362206 355201 351196 350192 351186 360191
      367196 377207 393215 400218 407220 407225 410227 413224
 1.00 385747 384738 381733 375727 371725 367725 359730 352732
      345733 338739 332746 329749 323751 320755 322758 324759
      325762 325767 324771 323773 326774 328779 329784 328787
      329791 333795 336797 338804 337810 336815 331824 333836
      332841 330846 326855 323859 321862 317867 317869 319868
      328863 331861 334856 338848 341847 344849 348852 356857
      362854 364849 366845 369842 373839 377835 378832 377827
      375823 372813 373806 376803 379798 383794 387784 385782
      379783 376786 373792 372794 368793 362794 362787 363783
      366773 367769 370764 377760 381757 384752 385747
 1.00 375143 376141 376139 376137 375134 375132 375130 375127
      373127 372129 372131 372134 371136 371138 371140 371143
      373144 375144 375143
 1.00 365160 366157 365155 365154 363153 361154 361155 360156
      361157 361159 362160 364160 365160
 1.00 361927 359926 357927 356930 357930 359930 359929 361927
 1.00 346772 346770 346769 345770 346772 346772
 1.00 316873 316871 315870 314871 316873 316873
 1.00 308784 306782 305782 299785 291793 283800 274807 269811
      266815 270813 275809 279809 283813 284817 287817 290816
      290814 287808 288804 291799 295795 304789 308784
 1.00 305821 303819 299819 296821 295824 296828 296832 297834
      298838 299841 301840 302836 302831 303829 304827 305823
      305821
 1.00 297777 296775 293775 289775 286776 283777 281779 279781
      278784 281786 283786 287786 291785 292784 296782 297779
      297777
 1.50 402214 401207 399203 390197 383190 379187 373184 369181
      363179 360179 355182 356186 360189 368195 376202 380205
      386207 394213 399216 402214
 1.50 380752 380750 380748 379746 379745 378744 377743 375743
      373743 372744 370745 368748 368750 369750 371751 372752
      374752 376753 377753 378754 380753 380752
 1.50 367219 365213 361208 353201 350196 348190 346183 345177
      344171 341166 335167 329164 332175 336187 339199 341205
      346209 351212 356216 361219 367219
 1.50 367804 368801 367800 365801 357803 354810 350815 350821
      351825 351829 350833 351838 354841 356841 358839 361832
      367828 367823 366818 367811 367804
 1.50 360781 359779 359778 357779 356780 354781 353782 352782
      351784 350784 350787 351789 353789 353788 355787 356786
      358784 358783 359781 360781
 1.50 350742 349738 347736 344738 340742 337747 335753 336758
      336767 336769 338770 341764 344759 346754 348748 350742
 2.00 399213 398208 396203 389199 383192 376187 368182 363181
      359181 357185 359188 367192 373198 381203 390207 396212
      399213
 2.00 365216 362212 357207 350199 346187 345180 344173 342168
      339168 338170 335170 334167 328166 333173 338185 340197
      343204 346207 353211 356214 361218 365216
 2.00 361818 362816 361814 359815 357816 357817 356819 358820
      359820 361819 361818
 2.00 347745 346743 346741 346740 345741 344743 343745 342746
      341748 340751 341753 342755 344754 345752 345751 346750
      346747 346746 347745
 3.00 383197 381194 378190 375188 371186 366183 361183 360186
      364189 369191 372193 375196 380199 383197
 3.00 347203 348201 348199 348198 347196 347194 347193 346191
      345190 344191 343192 343193 342195 343195 343197 344200
      345202 345203 347203 347203
 3.00 344182 344180 344178 344175 343173 343171 343170 341170
      341173 340175 339177 339179 339180 340181 341182 342184
      344182
 4.00 374191 373189 373188 371187 369186 368186 366185 364185
      363186 364187 366188 367188 369189 369190 371191 372191
      374191
 4.00 346198 344195 344196 346198 346198
 4.00 343180 344178 343177 342177 342179 343181 343180

$$





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