Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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960
FXUS04 KWBC 160624
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
123 AM EST MON JAN 16 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 16/1200 UTC THRU JAN 17/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...
...LOWER MS/OH VALLEYS...

A FAIRLY INTENSE/COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST MO AND SOUTHWEST IA BY MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
COMPACT UPPER LOW SHOULD THEN OPEN UP INTO A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
AND CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO LIFT FROM NEAR
THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF OK/TX QUICKLY INTO WESTERN MO BY MONDAY
EVENING AND THEN TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY MORNING.
A WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
PIVOT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THEN MOVING INTO LOWER MI EARLY
TUESDAY AND WEAKENING. A SWATH OF ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN AND
SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WHERE COLD WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST
QPFHSD FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE EXPECTED WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

FARTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...STRONG WARM ADVECTION
WITH THE AID OF A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL FAVOR AN
EXTENSIVE AXIS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INITIALLY ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY BUT THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
BY MONDAY NIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME MODEST INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME CONVECTIVE RAINS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SLOWING OF THE TAIL END OF
THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST TX BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUES...AND THIS MAY HELP FOSTER SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS
GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT RELATIVE TO
THE MEAN FLOW WHICH WILL TEND TO FAVOR SOME POTENTIAL TRAINING OF
CONVECTIVE CELLS. THE GUIDANCE FOR NOW DOES NOT EXACTLY SUPPORT
ANY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES
AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHEAST TX
COASTAL PLAIN.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO PARTS OF COASTAL WA AND ESPECIALLY THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WITH THE DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WA CASCADES AS WELL BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THIS IS JUST THE LEADING EDGE
OF WHAT IS AN IMPRESSIVELY LONG-FETCH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER THAT
EXTENDS WELL SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE TROPICAL WESTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY CIRA-LPW DATA AND AMSU 89 GHZ
DATA. THE STRONGEST ONSHORE FLOW FOR THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE FOCUSED
INTO SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA WHERE VERY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BEGINNING THIS PERIOD. MUCH
HEAVIER RAINS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD AS THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SAGS SOUTHEAST IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A COLD FRONT.

ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 17/12Z
 0.01 460328 464325 466323 470322 475323 479322 482321 486319
      488317 491313 494310 498309 501309 506308 543195 540189
      536185 534177 531170 528164 525160 516150 510148 506148
      504150 501156 497161 488164 486166 487170 487174 490176
      493176 494180 499185 497196 492199 489199 486197 484196
      482198 478201 475201 473204 469207 467217 466223 465226
      464231 466233 464239 460243 455246 450249 447255 442258
      434269 427276 418285 412294 411302 411309
 0.01 516219 515214 515211 515207 513204 512201 510199 508197
      505197 503199 504202 505207 505210 506213 509217 510219
      511221 514221 516219
 0.01 484687 481677 475669 467666 464668 463673 465680 463685
      459695 454703 452707 451714 454714 458717 459719 462718
      464721 464725 469734 471739 472748 474763 478774 480779
      484779 487775 488770 487755 485750 484743 482740 481736
      480728 480720 481713 483702 484697 484687 484687
 0.01 459866 459855 459845 457832 455822 450804 442786 438777
      434766 433762 432757 430752 427749 421742 419740 417733
      410718 406717 403717 401720 401722 407741 407747 407752
      407757 405760 404766 401769 394774 388776 382770 379767
      377763 371754 364753 362755 362759 368764 373770 381781
      383785 382790 376794 370799 364804 361807 356805 353806
      351809 349812 344813 339814 336817 333820 332824 334830
      338832 342832 345830 346833 344838 345840 348842 351841
      353838 356831 360826 363823 365825 365828 364833 359839
      355841 352845 346860 344867 345872 346875 344877 338882
      336885 335891 334897 331900 326904 319904 316902 309897
      304893 299893 295894 294897 293901 294904 295908 298911
      299918 298924 294924 292926 290929 290935 289940 286943
      281947 279949 279956 280958 280964 271977 273982 276985
      280987 286987 297982 308973 319962 334957 341955 345953
      350954 366959 367964 368970 370981 368990 365998 366016
      368024 372031 370041 362044 356047 351053 347054 345054
      343051 344048 340045 338045 335049 334053 334056 336056
      340056 343052 345057 348058 346066 349077 350080 345080
      341080 340082 334079 333085 333090 335093 333096 329096
      325095 322091 320091 316099 318101 321103 324109 328109
      330104 333102 337104 340107 342111 347116 349115 350112
      348110 346105 347101 348091 352086 353084 351082 352079
      356076 358079 361081 365081 367079 368074 371076 373080
      375083 379082 381078 383073 388073 390075 393072 398072
      405066 412063 413054 413051 411048 410042 412038 416031
      418025 422017 423014 424007 426998 429990 436971 442954
      449931 450928 451921 452917 453909 454900 457891 458886
      458878 458870 459866
 0.01 389045 390043 390041 389038 387040 387043 387045 388047
      389045
 0.01 371709 369703 364703 357713 349722 343732 332752 326762
      322765 316769 312771 305773 299771 296770 295772 293778
      296781 305787 310790 316790 324789 328786 334776 342766
      347758 350753 355748 358744 359737 366726 369718 371709
 0.01 325883 325880 322879 318877 312875 308871 303869 299872
      300873 298876 292878 283884 274891 276894 282893 293888
      297885 300880 301877 303878 308882 312884 318886 322885
      325883
 0.01 270802 270801 269800 268798 267798 266797 264797 262797
      261797 259798 258799 259800 260801 261802 262803 263804
      265804 267804 269804 270802 270802
 0.25 525257 520253 518246 511231 495207 491209 485207 482208
      480211 480216 482219 484221 486225 486230 484233 482235
      480233 476232 473234 470241 466247 456259 437277 430287
      428292 430297 433299 445296 447295 450296 453305 455311
      459314 462314 474311 484305 489302 496301 508300
 0.25 537210 537201 536195 530184 525176 517169 514168 508169
      505174 506179 507185 510189 516198 521209 528216 532215
      535211 537210
 0.25 450899 451888 450876 449863 448853 446841 443830 440821
      436813 433808 428802 422798 416797 413799 410803 404808
      401811 396811 387809 383804 379808 375816 374824 373833
      370842 366850 362857 355870 348884 340898 336905 331911
      322921 310929 304935 299940 294946 290954 288959 287964
      287969 288973 292976 299974 306969 312964 323955 343936
      348931 353927 362923 368923 373924 378927 382933 387938
      391946 392957 389965 385973 384983 384991 387000 389003
      392005 399004 405001 411996 420980 423975 427967 434952
      441935 444927 447916 450899
 0.25 373066 372064 371064 370063 368063 367063 368064 369065
      370066 371066 373067 373066
 0.50 524261 518253 517248 514242 510233 504225 502220 500215
      498210 494211 491213 486212 486217 488223 489227 489234
      482241 477239 474242 468250 463259 460263 459272 458285
      459290 458298 460303 464306 470307 474306 488298 496296
      505296 510296
 0.50 531208 533205 533200 532195 530190 527186 525182 521179
      516178 514178 513181 515187 517190 520194 521200 523204
      528207 531208 531208
 0.50 446896 446886 446875 445865 443853 439837 436830 431824
      425822 422821 419823 415829 412837 410843 406850 404857
      405864 400880 399887 397899 398914 394919 392923 391929
      393938 395945 396951 395957 395965 396973 399979 405979
      410974 415970 418963 423947 428931 432927 438923 443910
      445903 446896
 0.50 388863 387858 386854 381848 375846 371849 366856 359870
      351887 333915 323928 314942 308946 307945 309941 312938
      312933 307934 304937 299943 296951 295958 293962 293968
      295971 298970 306966 319956 329945 334940 341932 345927
      349919 359905 369894 374888 379878 382870 386866 388863
 1.00 523264 518257 515248 506233 502226 498219 495217 492220
      491227 492232 493236 491240 487240 484243 480249 474255
      470264 469270 469277 468289 469293 473297 477297 480296
      487293 493290 501291 507292 513290
 1.00 354899 353897 351899 351900 353900 354899
 1.00 342919 339918 337919 334924 326933 319941 311949 303957
      300962 301964 303964 312958 321949 328941 334932 341921
      342919
 1.50 522267 515253 512245 507238 499225 497223 494223 493229
      493233 496241 497244 493245 490243 486243 482252 478257
      475267 473273 474279 474284 475288 478291 481291 487288
      493287 502289 508288 513285 518279
 1.50 315952 314950 312951 311952 310953 309954 308954 307956
      306956 305958 307959 308958 309958 310956 311956 312955
      313954 314953 315952
 2.00 520271 520266 518262 516259 514253 506237 496225 494229
      495234 499242 503250 503254 500256 495252 490245 486247
      484251 480259 477272 477278 479283 482285 486284 489283
      494284 502286 505286 509283 513277 516276 519272 520271
 3.00 517267 517265 515261 513258 512255 511252 509250 507248
      506247 507250 507253 508259 508262 509264 510268 513270
      516270 517267
 3.00 505279 505271 502264 499261 495255 491250 488251 486254
      484261 482270 482273 485276 490278 496281 501283 505279
 3.00 505242 504239 502238 501238 502241 503242 505244 505242
 4.00 503278 503271 501267 498263 496260 493255 489255 487259
      488264 489270 492274 495276 498279 501279 503278
 5.00 501272 500269 498266 497264 495262 493259 492258 490260
      490263 491266 493269 496272 497274 499274 501272

$$





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