Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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605
FXUS04 KWBC 180821
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
420 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 18/1200 UTC THRU MAY 21/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A SUB-558 DM UPPER
LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN MN. THIS CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FOSTERED
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN ITS VICINITY. COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE HAS SHIFTED THE
PRECIPITATION TYPES TO A MIXTURE OF LIGHT SNOW AND OCCASIONAL
FREEZING RAIN OVER AREAS OF ND INTO FAR WESTERN MN. TO THE
EAST...THE AIR MASS IS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE WHICH HAS LED TO
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY AT TIMES.
GENERALLY TENTH TO QUARTER INCH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN ONE HOUR
ACROSS NORTHERN MN. MODELS AGREE ON THIS UPPER LOW SLIDING
EASTWARD IN TIME REACHING SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. COMMA-HEAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL SPREAD THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. MODEL
AGREEMENT WAS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE.


...TN/OH VALLEYS EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND...

WHILE THE UPPER TROF MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...A SERIES OF WEAKER IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE FROM THE OH
VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THESE MESOSCALE WAVES WILL
WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE.
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HELP FIRE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE THE
ACTIVITY SPREADS DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY ORGANIZED GIVEN MID-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS MAXIMIZING AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS AT 19/0000Z. OVERALL THE
MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT PAINTING A HEAVIER AXIS OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. ADDED A LITTLE DETAIL FROM
THE 12Z HRW-ARW ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF WV/PA.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY/OZARKS...

PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DRAG A SERIES OF
MESOSCALE IMPULSES FROM NORTHEASTERN MX ACROSS SOUTH TX AND TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ONE SUCH WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL MS SPAWNING A BROAD AREA OF INTENSE CONVECTION EARLY THIS
MORNING. MODELS SHOW THIS COMPLEX WEAKENING IN TIME AS IT LIFTS
TOWARD THE UPPER TN VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...MANY OF THE HIGH-RES
MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH THETA-E AIR LIFTING OUT OF
THE GULF OF MX INTO SOUTH AND EAST TX BY AROUND 09Z. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHILE THE NEXT MESOSCALE WAVE CROSSES THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. THE 04Z HRRR SHOWED CONVECTION
INCREASING IN COVERAGE BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z FROM EAST TX INTO
WESTERN LA. THIS SEEMED TO AGREE WITH WHAT THE 04Z RAP WAS SHOWING
AT THE TIME. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS A BROAD AXIS OF MODEL SPREAD
WHERE THIS CONVECTION WILL CONGREGATE. THE IDEA OF DEVELOPMENT IS
SUPPORTED BUT PLACEMENT IS ANOTHER STORY. GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW NEARLY ALIGNS WITH THE MEAN CLOUD-BEARING FLOW...SOME CELL
TRAINING/BACKBUILDING CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. IN
TERMS OF THE QPF PLACEMENT...FAVORED THE 04Z HRRR FOR INITIATION
WHILE USING SOME CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE 12Z HRW-NMM-B THEREAFTER.


...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

THE DEEP UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL LEAD
TO A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BY
19/0000Z...MODELS SHOW THE 850-MB FLOW PICKING UP STRENGTH AS 20
TO 30 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO TAKE AIM AT THE FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE ROCKIES. AS THIS LLJ INTENSIFIES...THE 12Z
HRW-ARW SHOWS A BROAD TONGUE OF UNSTABLE AIR WORKING ITS WAY ALONG
THE NOSE OF THE 850-MB JET. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT BETWEEN 19/0000Z AND 19/1200Z WITH THE FOCUS
INITIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES. BASED ON THE DEW POINT ANALYSIS FROM THE 00Z NAM...THIS
APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WITH A DRY LINE FEATURE EXTENDING
NORTH-SOUTH. GRADUALLY THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OFF THE TERRAIN
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MODEL
SPREAD WAS RATHER HIGH WITH THIS AREA OF THE COUNTRY WITH SOME
MODELS NOT SHOWING ENOUGH PRECIPITATION AGAINST THE TERRAIN.
THOUGHT THE 12Z HRW-ARW AND ITS PARALLEL RUN WERE SUPPORTIVE OF
HEAVIER AMOUNTS ALONG UPSLOPE LOCATIONS AND LESS DOWNSTREAM.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED ITS AREAL COVERAGE WHILE BEING A TAD MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH THE ACTUAL FORECAST AMOUNTS.


...WESTERN U.S....

THE STRONG UPPER TROF MOVING FROM THE CA COAST TOWARD INLAND
LOCALES WILL HELP INVIGORATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES. MODELS SHOW A STRONG 250-MB JET STREAK IN EXCESS
OF 110 KNOTS RACING THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA CA PLACING THE FAVORABLE
UPPER DIVERGENCE SIGNATURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ONLY MODEST
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH FORECAST PWATS IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...THE
SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THE UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN SPREADING QUITE A BIT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE QPF PRODUCTION WAS
PRIMARILY BASED ON A SPLIT BETWEEN THE 00Z NAM/18Z GFS. THEY BOTH
SEEMED TO HANDLE THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION WELL AND UTILIZED THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM TO PAINT THE COMPLEX TERRAIN.



DAYS 2/3...


...NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC...

A SHORT WAVE CROSSING ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PUSHES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY
2...AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT RESULTS IN
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE SHORT
WAVE AND THE FRONT...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
00Z ECMWF/GFS.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY ON
DAY 2 TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY PUSHES A
SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE FRONT CROSSES THE COAST BETWEEN 20/00Z AND 20/06Z (AND PERHAPS
A BIT LATER NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER). AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT (IN THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN
1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES...WHICH IS BETWEEN TWO AND THREE STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN
A LINE OF CONVECTION CROSSING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HERE SHOULD RESULT IN AN AREA
OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NH AND ME
(WITH LOCAL 0.50+ AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN ME).

FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN IS NOT AS ROBUST (AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION OCCURS CLOSER
TO 20/00Z). MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED MARGINAL TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY...AND A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SINCE THERE IS MID LEVEL FORCING...THE
LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE...REDUCING THE THREAT
FOR FLOODING. AN AXIS OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF WAS EXTENDED
FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NC/SC...WITH LOCAL 0.50+ INCH
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE IN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RIDING UP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON DAY 2 FEEDS CONVECTION
THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. A SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT BOUNDARY...AND TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
AND MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING DAY 3.  THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT DURING DAY 2 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/GFS. THERE IS INCREASING MODEL SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER AND
MID MS VALLEY DURING DAY 3...AS THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TOO DRY IN THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND THE 00Z NAM MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH
WITH THE HIGHER QPF IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE WPC QPF FOR DAY 3 WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/UKMET...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
CONVECTION IS SOUTH CENTRAL TX AS WELL.

A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
CO ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK...AS WELL AS NORTH TX BECOMES THE
FOCUS FOR HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR AND INSTABILITY ON DAY
2...ESPECIALLY AFTER 20/00Z. A 25 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BUMPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES
(RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX VALUES BETWEEN TWO AND THREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL)...CENTERED AROUND 20/06Z FROM A
PORTION OF NORTH TX THROUGH CENTRAL OK. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AN AXIS OF BROKEN CONVECTION...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES...AND 1.50 TO 2.25 INCHES OF QPF
WAS PLACED ALONG THIS AXIS. THE QPF AMOUNTS ARE BELOW THE THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...BUT THE STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN (WITH MANY MEMBERS OF THE LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 2+ INCHES OF QPF) AND HIGH RAINFALL
RATES SUGGEST A SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NEEDED FOR THIS AREA.

THE SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTHEAST CO ON DAY 2 TRACKS ALONG THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING DAY 3. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL FLOW EARLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES EAST. THE BEST
MID LEVEL LIFT RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AS THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER AND INSTABILITY DECREASE (MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED). THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SHOULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF EXTENDING
FROM MO/SOUTHERN IA THROUGH MUCH OF IL/SOUTHERN IN. THIS IS
SURROUNDED BY A MUCH LARGER AREAS OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF
COVERING MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX...INCREASING MOISTURE IN A
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW TRANSPORTS 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AIR INTO THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 3. THE
MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY (AS SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...
WHICH BECOME INCREASING MOIST WITH TIME) ARE FOCUSED ON A LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TX. CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ON THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AS WEAK SHORT WAVES IN THE
STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT FOR
ORGANIZATION. THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET BOTH KEY IN ON THE DEVELOPING
CONVECTION HERE TO PRODUCE 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF QPF...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX. MANY MEMBERS OF THE LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR 2+ INCHES OF QPF ALONG THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY...WHICH IS ABOVE THE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES. GIVEN THE STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TX.


...CENTRAL PLAINS/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TRANSPORTED NORTH INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS AND THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FUELS CONVECTION THAT
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING DAY 2. FOR THE
MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN (THOUGH THE 00Z NAM MAY BE TOO FAST MOVING THE RAINFALL
OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS)...SO THE WPC
QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WEST COAST CROSSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING DAY 2. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE...A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW TRANSPORTS 1.00 TO 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR (WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) INTO WESTERN KS AND
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES IN CO...AS WELL AS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY (WHICH BECOMES ELEVATED AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN CO).
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR AND INSTABILITY FUELS
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST NM INTO EASTERN
CO...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS INTO A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST WY. THE
BIGGEST FORECAST QUESTION HERE BECOMES JUST HOW FAR WEST DOES THE
ELEVATED CONVECTION GET INTO EASTERN CO/SOUTHEAST WY...AS THIS
COULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT UP TO THE
DIVIDE.

MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DOES
NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO THE DIVIDE...AND INSTEAD BECOMES FOCUSED ON
THE FRONT RANGE. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT SOME
TRAINING OF THE CONVECTION COULD OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN
KS INTO SOUTHEAST WY...RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF 1.00 TO 1.75
INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THIS AREA. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN CO AND WESTERNMOST KS...WHERE THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AS LOW AS 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES. THE UPSLOPE
FLOW BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS OCCURS EASES OFF AFTER 20/00Z...SO MUCH OF THE QPF
IS EXPECTED BEFORE THAT TIME.

THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
FRONT RANGE AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DURING DAY 2 (EVEN IF THE 00Z
NAM MAY BE TOO FAR EAST INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE HIGHEST
QPF...GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW). THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE
RELATIVELY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...SUGGESTS THAT THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA IN PLACE BE RETAINED.


...WEST COAST/GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACES ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES DURING DAYS 2 AND 3. YET ANOTHER CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA LATE ON DAY 3. THERE WAS GENERALLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP (THOUGH
THERE WAS INCREASING MODEL SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO THE CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW AND THE SPEED OF ITS APPROACH TO THE CA COAST LATE ON
DAY 3)...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS.

WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION OVER
THE WEST COAST DURING DAY 2 SHOULD RESULT IN LOCAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY (DUE IN PART TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES) AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES
(WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) SHOULD
RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION. DUE TO
THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...A LARGE AREA OF 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER EASTERN OR...SOUTHERN
ID...NORTHEAST NV AND MUCH OF NORTHERN UT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD RECEIVE LOCAL 0.50+ INCH QPF AMOUNTS. WHILE LOCALIZED
FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE... AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING
DURING DAY 2.

THE AIRMASS REMAINS SUBSTANTIALLY THE SAME DURING DAY 3 ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE VALUES IN THE COLUMN AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AS WAS THE CASE ON DAY 2...AREAS OF 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES OF QPF WERE PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OR...NORTHERN
NV AND SOUTHWEST ID.


RUBIN-OSTER/HAYES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 19/12Z
 0.01 532227 533222 532216 530210 527206 521199 516198 513199
      500203 494204 489202 486205 482206 474207 468210 461213
      455213 452212 449210 450206 452200 457191 463183 466177
      464171 462161 462155 460149 455141 452138 451133 453119
      453107 455102 454097 452093 448092 445093 442090 437088
      435086 434079 437076 441077 446080 449081 452082 452077
      449074 445069 438065 436060 436052 438047 440045 442045
      446043 447039 444034 440033 435032 432030 423029 418027
      415024 400013 382006 373003 368001 364996 359989 353981
      349960 347950 347946 348944 351940 355930 361925 373913
      377911 378907 383898 387890 392883 395876 398872 402869
      405865 409861 416854 423847 428843 430840 435833 438829
      441825 443821 447817 455815 459813 464813 467812 469815
      468821 467826 467834 467841 466847 460869 461876 459880
      460897 460904 463909 460922 457931 455937 455945 454954
      458965 459971 462974 465979 468980 474985 476987 478987
      484987 489987 491985 497979 503972 506968 509965 514955
      516948 519942 522932 525926 526920 528910 531897 535872
      537861 538854 538847 540821 541808 542793 542778 542766
      535741 532739 529735 526723 523716 519713 515711 509713
      506715 503713 500709 501704 505695 506691 506684 504669
      503663 502657 497647 494644 488646 485645 482648 475656
      469664 461673 455680 450688 445697 439704 437706 432708
      424713 408723 404725 401729 395736 379746 370751 367752
      365751 360752 352757 350760 348766 345770 346775 345780
      345786 344791 342794 339795 334800 329807 326811 322814
      318816 312818 309819 306818 287816 275816 271818 268821
      292849 297855 302863 304867 303874 300882 299888 297892
      293899
 0.01 293899 289909 288913 290917 294927 296936 297962 294973
      290979 285987 279994 277998 273999 269001 264002 255007
      252010 251017 250020 252024 255028 259031 275038 285039
      291041 293044 296048 300051 308058 314062 320064 324066
      327070 332071 336073 341074 350079 351083 352089 356097
      362103 366106 367109 366114 363117 361123 360129 361134
      365137 369138 377136 385131 388129 390132 389135 385137
      380138 378144 377151 373152 368152 360147 356146 352148
      349153 351158 352162 356164 363165 367168 368172 361170
      358172 360175 357180 358185 361189 366191 369193 383206
      395209 402217 405220 406224 400225 395223 389222 387225
      387230 389234 399238 401242 405245 412246 416249 421251
      425251 429248 430244 432242 436243 438241 444242 453241
      458242 461239 465239 467231 469226 473223 478222 483223
      486223 491224 493228 494235 498244 504252 509260 515262
      518260 520255 522247 521240 519234 517230 516222 520220
      525220 527223 529228 530229 532227
 0.01 509280 508277 507274 506266 504260 500254 496250 493244
      490240 487237 485238 482238 481235 481232 478229 473231
      472237 473241 474244 479247 485249 490254 493267 502277
      504282 507282 509280
 0.01 405196 404194 404193 403191 401193 399193 398194 399196
      399197 400198 402199 403198 404197 405196
 0.01 349199 351195 350192 350188 349185 347179 345173 343166
      338165 336165 334167 335169 339172 340177 341178 342185
      343192 346197 349199
 0.01 296800 295794 290793 279793 274792 269794 259798 255800
      251804 249809 249814 252817 257819 266813 275808 279805
      285805 290806 294804 296800
 0.25 534768 533763 531757 526747 520740 515735 508731 501731
      493735 488738 483739 475740 471739 470734 473724 475720
      479716 498675 496671 494666 489666 484668 475673 470679
      467687 461697 455705 449710 431741 423750 420754 415756
      395759 390767 387770 384775 383780 381784 376791 365805
      359811 353817 347824 342832 335839 334843 335847 339855
      340862 339869 334877 331880 327880 318878 314880 311884
      302898 300902 299909 300921 302931 304944 305953 305958
      303965 300974 295983 292992 286999 277003 269007 266010
      265014 266019 269022 277026 287026 294024 299022 302025
      306033 312039 320044 331049 339053 345054 348054 350056
      355064 360069 365079 367088 369091 374091 384092 389090
      391086 399083 406080 415076 416070 416063 416059 418055
      418051 416048 412047 408045 400041 395039 391035 389030
      387025 381022 378019 372011 363008 359007 355005 349998
      347995 343993 336996 327998 321997 318994 315992 313988
      314983 317979 321972 328965 334958 339947 346928 349919
      353910 362894 367887 372881 379873 385866 388858 392850
      401837 412821 417813 423804 434785 438777 441773 444770
      448767 452767 458773 465776 472781 476785 478791 481799
      484811 485821 486829 484858 483871 481883 477907 475917
      476924 477931 481940 486945 495942 501939 507932 512923
      516914 520903 523891 525878 527864 529848 529834 526823
      517805
 0.25 517805 516803 517801 517800 518800 520798 520797 521796
      522794 523793 524791 525788 527786 527785 528783 530781
      531779 533776 533773 534771 534770 534768
 0.25 506237 505234 503232 502230 500230 499232 500233 501235
      503236 504238 506237
 0.25 461180 462176 459173 456169 454160 452155 449148 444144
      440140 437141 436146 434152 437158 439160 443160 447160
      449163 449168 447175 447178 444179 440177 433175 431173
      431168 427163 424159 420154 416147 407140 402137 397137
      392140 389141 388145 392151 395152 398154 397159 395161
      389161 383161 378160 374163 376168 378171 378175 376181
      375186 372184 366181 363182 364186 371188 376192 379197
      385203 391202 392197 390195 387190 385184 390181 396180
      401176 407174 408168 413168 413185 412193 410201 410205
      412209 413212 413217 411223 409227 409232 417240 423239
      423233 430233 436232 441229 445228 451226 454220 452218
      450217 445216 441215 440212 443205 448199 450194 455186
      461180
 0.25 445111 444108 442108 441108 442110 443111 445111
 0.25 434097 433095 433094 431093 431092 429091 428091 429094
      431096 431097 432098 434097 434097
 0.25 424117 422114 419111 415109 413104 410096 407093 405095
      404100 402106 400109 395110 392113 389116 390117 399121
      399127 401129 403129 408128 409124 414124 418123 424117
 0.25 365157 364156 363156 361156 362158 364159 365157
 0.25 313852 313847 312844 311841 310837 309835 307833 304833
      302834 301838 301840 301844 301848 302850 304852 306854
      309855 311854 313852
 0.50 520758 518748 513743 507740 502739 498741 494743 489749
      486756 484762 484768 485778 487789 492807 492818 491828
      491839 492851 492861 493871 488891 487899 486905 486912
      488917 491920 493922 497922 503919 508913 512906 516897
      518889 521879 522870 522855 522842 521836 519832 513827
      510820 508807 507794 509785 511779 513775 517766 520758
 0.50 475750 472747 468746 465747 460746 458740 457738 457734
      456731 451730 448733 447737 447741 444745 440750 437753
      428757 417761 408764 402766 398769 394773 392778 382794
      377803 371811 364818 362822 361828 358834 355837 352840
      352844 356847 354850 352855 352862 355866 361867 367860
      373852 378843 383834 386822 388818 392815 400810 404806
      406801 407796 411792 420793 427786 433778 437768 440763
      443760 451754 456756 459760 463761 468759 475750
 0.50 450224 450221 448219 442218 438217 437213 441205 444198
      445191 445186 444183 441183 439185 434189 430195 425198
      420197 416200 413202 415205 419210 419216 417225 419229
      421229 424227 427227 429230 433231 438228 444225 450224
 0.50 455177 455174 455172 455171 454169 453168 452168 451168
      450170 450173 451175 451176 452178 454178 455177
 0.50 414064 412056 413054 409052 405051 402051 395049 391041
      388040 382040 378039 375036 373032 373029 375025 374018
      372014 370013 364012 358017 353017 349014 346011 342009
      334010 326005 320002 315996 308992 306990 306988 315971
      324960 332947 338932 349899 357885 359881 357876 352879
      346885 339890 325892 316892 311894 309896 304901 302905
      302909 306928 308937 309947 309959 307967 305975 301982
      299992 294999 282005 274009 272011 271016 274019 278021
      282022 287021 292018 297012 301012 305014 309016 312019
      315026 320031 327035 333038 337041 339045 341048 345050
      348050 351051 354058 360063 364064 366066 366073 368077
      373082 375085 379085 385081 390081 393079 399075 405073
      410072 413070 412066 414064
 0.50 397175 397173 397171 395170 393170 391170 390170 388170
      386171 386173 386175 387176 389177 391177 392177 394177
      396176 397175
 0.50 388201 389199 388197 386196 385195 383193 381191 380191
      379192 379194 379195 380197 381197 382199 383200 384200
      385201 387201 388201
 1.00 516871 514864 513861 510859 507864 504872 503878 500885
      498892 497896 500898 503896 506893 510887 513882 515874
      516871
 1.00 502775 502770 501765 499763 496764 494766 493769 493774
      493777 495781 497784 499783 500781 502777 502775
 1.00 438224 438222 436221 434220 433220 431220 430221 429223
      430226 431228 433228 434227 435226 436226 437225 438224
 1.00 383074 385072 385070 383069 382068 381067 380067 379067
      378067 376068 375069 373070 372071 371073 372075 374077
      376077 378077 379077 380076 381076 383074 383074
 1.00 373048 372046 369044 365045 363046 362047 358049 356050
      356052 358054 361055 363054 367052 368052 372050 373048
 1.00 369025 368020 363019 360023 357026 355029 352033 350037
      353041 356043 360042 364039 365034 367030 369025
 1.00 337019 336017 334016 332015 331014 330014 329014 327013
      326014 325015 325016 324018 325019 327020 328021 329021
      330021 332021 334021 336020 337019
 1.00 337915 338907 337902 334901 332902 329906 325910 321907
      314908 312913 311919 312925 312931 314939 313949 315955
      318955 320954 327945 330937 334926 337915
 1.00 318007 317005 317004 316003 315002 314001 313999 311999
      309999 308000 307000 308001 308002 309005 310007 311008
      312009 313010 314011 316011 318009 318008 318007
 1.50 334919 334915 333911 329911 326917 324922 322928 320935
      319939 321942 325943 328937 330932 332926 334919

24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 483615 483625 485629 484634 484638 486639 489636 499631
      503631 506635 511645 518666 519678 519688 518695 518703
      519712 518718 518724 516730 515736 514742 515752 516756
      516763 517772 516785 517797 516809 514837 513846 510856
      505863 499873 500882 500886 498888 498904 492909 489909
      486906 481894 474885 471881 472874 475862 476859 475853
      473844 468819 464810 460798 458787 458775 459761 456757
      452755 447754 444755 439757 435760 409789 405796 401804
      396812 394816 391819 385825 381831 380837 378841 372849
      363872 354890 350901 352912 356922 364920 379914 383913
      388913 399912 409912 414912 416917 423933 440974 449998
      455020 466059 469068 471077 473087 472096 470100 464107
      460110 456114 453118 452125 452130 453133 455138 461146
      462153 465156 466160 463164 461169 461173 463178 462183
      458191 460201 461208 464209 473209 480207 487204 495202
      508205 514207 518211 524218 524222 522231 518242 516249
      514251 512250 510246 509248 509251 506249 503247 501243
      497236 492228 488225 483223 479222 479226 485234 491240
      496248 501253 501260 501264 499263 496260 490251 483243
      476242 473233 467230 465232 465234 468236 469239 468242
      466242 461245 457248 454248 446244 442244 437245 429244
      418240 415238 412238 403240 396238 393235 388232 387228
      391224 395223 399222 401219 399215 395211 390208 386205
      372193 367189 366185 368182 377184 380187 385190 388192
      390196 397198 401197 404196 404193 402181 394181 390179
      386176 384175 382172 381168 380162 382156 381149 378144
      377138 376134 366119 365115 366109 367104 366099
 0.01 366099 367094 365090 358091 353086 352075 350065 345057
      337051 327046 320042 313038 312036 309035 304035 295035
      273031 262029 250029 240028 237026 235023 232015 231003
      232997 233992 242989 260998 267001 271003 273007 279003
      284000 287999 292997 293995 293992 292980 291973 293968
      292964 292958 292953 294949 294945 297941 297932 297927
      295923 295909 296899 300887 300874 297852 295843 293839
      290835 286833 282830 279829 273829 267829 264825 261821
      257820 250816 242815 249800 253798 257797 260796 263800
      262804 263810 257812 258815 260818 262821 264822 266821
      268818 274813 278810 284809 295808 298808 299805 297800
      305782 312766 316760 320752 323743 327732 331723 333719
      337715 342710 350705 367697 375692 378688 379681 383671
      387663 390653 398644
 0.01 399709 387712 382712 377715 369724 361732 357736 353742
      354746 354750 358750 368744 372742 378737 380732 384728
      392720 396715 399709
 0.25 429634 431641 430646 429651 427655 424659 421662 418665
      413667 413663 415658 416654 418650 420645 422641 424637
      425635
 0.25 513670 512655 508645 505641 502640 499642 493651 481664
      476666 473670 470668 471661 468651 468646 465648 462653
      459657 450664 444670 438677 432687 431693 433701 434707
      435713 439716 443716 452713 455712 455715 457724 460733
      463737 465742 466750 468758 470764 472771 472777 474785
      477797 481809 482815 485820 489818 491815 496807 498804
      499813 503813 505808 508797 509785 508768 507750 505736
      506722 510697 513684 513670
 0.25 470686 468685 467687 466690 465690 464693 464695 464698
      465699 466698 467697 468696 469694 469692 469691 470688
      470686 470686
 0.25 450180 451175 449175 447172 449170 451172 451166 449158
      447147 445136 443131 441128 438129 436126 437122 438115
      440096 443087 447077 451068 453051 454047 453040 450029
      446022 442014 435997 431989 425980 420973 415963 412955
      407948 402942 396937 393935 387935 378936 372937 368938
      364942 359944 345949 339954 336957 334961 330972 326980
      319987 312992 307996 305000 305006 308013 307019 308021
      315028 323033 331038 337043 343047 352050 353054 357057
      364060 368062 369066 372071 373076 375082 380083 383085
      384088 383091 383094 392094 397088 400088 399090 401093
      401098 399104 395107 392112 389115 385117 385120 389119
      392119 395120 402125 404129 406134 406138 405142 407146
      407153 405158 406164 416179 418187 418194 416199 413207
      410214 412219 417221 421221 426220 431218 439214 443205
      442198 445192 450180
 0.25 445174 446172 444170 443171 443174 444174 445174
 0.25 435131 435129 433129 432130 431131 430132 429134 429135
      428137 428139 428141 428143 429142 430140 430139 432138
      432136 433135 434133 435132 435131
 0.25 415232 415229 413226 411225 408225 405226 403226 401228
      398229 399232 402234 406234 407233 410233 413232 415232
 0.25 420704 420702 418702 413707 410711 408717 404722 402729
      406731 409728 412723 411718 413713 417709 420704
 0.25 380768 381765 379763 375761 368759 363758 357761 351767
      346772 341780 339790 342793 346791 351784 359779 366775
      377772 380768
 0.25 336910 336904 335897 333887 329878 323873 317879 313888
      312899 313909 319915 322918 328918 332917 335913 336910
 0.25 318823 319820 318817 314817 309816 304815 299816 296819
      298826 300827 304831 306834 309832 312828 316826 318823
 0.25 266017 263013 258008 254005 251001 246998 239999 238003
      240007 243011 249013 254014 259017 263018 266017
 0.50 509685 509677 508670 506665 503660 500657 498657 491664
      486670 482680 479689 475699 472707 469717 469723 470728
      476735 480745 482758 484764 486765 488763 491759 493754
      498734 501725 504714 507705 508693 509685
 0.50 454680 453678 452679 450682 448685 446688 445690 444693
      444696 444698 447698 449696 451694 453691 454688 454683
      454680
 0.50 448056 449046 449041 448037 442025 435010 431004 426997
      416990 412985 409979 405973 400966 392954 388950 382947
      377945 371945 358953 353957 348963 343966 338970 336978
      333983 328988 323992 319994 317997 315000 314005 314009
      313013 317019 320024 326027 332030 337035 343039 349040
      354043 359047 365051 371054 384061 387061 390060 394062
      395066 394073 395076 398076 405077 412076 415079 415083
      416087 420089 422093 421100 419104 416106 412106 410103
      407102 405107 406112 407115 409118 413120 416123 418128
      419136 416144 415153 415158 417161 421164 424163 426165
      423158 423147 423138 424129 428123 429116 429106 429099
      432079 432070 438066 442066 445063 448056
 0.50 428209 429207 429204 428202 426201 425201 423202 422202
      421204 421205 420207 420209 422211 423212 425212 427211
      427210 428209
 0.50 249006 249005 248004 247002 245002 244003 243004 243006
      245008 247008 248008 249007 249006
 1.00 501703 501695 499690 497686 494683 491687 490693 489698
      488704 487709 489715 491718 496719 499716 501710 501705
      501703
 1.00 437040 432022 418018 411015 400015 394011 386011 383013
      381017 374021 369026 370030 372035 376040 378044 382047
      386048 388045 391043 396042 403045 406047 410047 414045
      418046 427045 433044 437040
 1.00 388981 384975 381974 375972 369969 368965 364963 353972
      346976 342983 339991 334997 331004 330016 331020 333023
      338024 343024 346023 347019 349014 348011 353007 360003
      371992 373989 377986 385983 388981
 1.50 388027 388025 388023 387022 386021 384021 383022 382023
      382024 381026 382028 384029 386029 388028 388027
 1.50 364985 365981 364978 357976 352980 349985 347991 344998
      342002 342004 346004 349002 353997 357993 362989 364985

24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 540200 540195 537196 529196 514197 495199 489200 481203
      465211 461212 456211 452211 451209 451204 455199 454194
      456190 462186 461161 461148 456142 457138 460134 462131
      463127 464109 465102 463097 459089 457085 455078 456061
      458057 458049 456038 455031 454025 453020 452014 448001
      442981 437959 435949 433938 430912 428898 425888 414835
      410825 406815 401806 401800 396789 393787 389787 379789
      375794 371804 368813 360833 356842 351850 342855 335856
      333853 333850 329840 327831 332811 333806 336802 341795
      345788 346784 348780 350776 348774 341773 340769 342767
      351753 356743 360734 361729 360722 357714 354713 354710
      355704 355699 354694 353690 351690 346688 343685 339684
      333685 330687 325694 321711 318723 315733 310751 310756
      308762 306771 304781 303786 304794 298804 294806 291805
      274800 266797 260798 257800 252802 250810 251816 254819
      259819 262821 269825 282827 285829 287831 292838 298847
      299851 300856 301871 299876 299883 298884 298888 299893
      297905 297918 301926 301939 301944 299949 299961 297965
      294967 286972 283976 277978 270981 264986 264992 265997
      267001 263001 253997 244994 240992 235994 233001 234009
      263023 273028 283029 295029 300032 302036 309043 312048
      314052 318054 323056 331060 349066 355067 359065 366061
      367065 367068 369071 372075 374080 376083 378085 386084
      389084 393085 396089 395096 393102 394108 387115 380119
      377121 374126 379128 384129 388126 395122 398124 398129
      394133 384136 380137 379139 385146 391153
 0.01 391153 388161 384168 380176 372178 365178 358181 359185
      361189 368194 379204 386208 393212 397218 399221 396223
      390227 389232 391235 406242 416244 424244 436238 439237
      444238 448239 449234 450231 451226 455222 457221 465220
      473220 481222 485224 487226 495233 499240 507253 511260
      514264 515261 518255 522245 526236 529226 532219 535212
      540200
 0.01 527700 526686 522676 513657 503641 492626 487621 479619
      474620 469623 463629 461633 460637 452644 446651 442659
      440668 443676 448687 453691 455694 455697 452701 448708
      445710 446712 445717 445725 446728 445732 444737 441740
      438743 438747 438751 440752 443752 447749 450748 453745
      455741 457737 459731 461728 463730 467732 471741 476747
      479747 481742 486732 489724 492715 494710 497709 501708
      505707 507709 515707 523704 527700
 0.01 479238 480236 480234 479233 479231 478230 476232 475235
      476236 477238 479239 479238
 0.01 413012 412000 410991 408987 406983 403981 398980 390977
      380977 374982 370990 362005 358011 356016 358020 368034
      371041 375044 380044 389045 398044 402043 407043 410033
      410021 411014 413012
 0.25 432224 434220 433218 432211 431203 429197 434189 437184
      438179 437176 433164 430159 427154 426148 424143 421142
      419143 416146 413151 411159 407164 406173 405180 403187
      404189 407189 412189 418189 419187 421188 423199 421206
      417209 414214 414219 414224 412225 407227 402228 398232
      402235 409236 415235 418232 426229 432224
 0.25 422945 422935 422927 421916 420908 415893 409882 405877
      403871 393863 385854 381853 379855 376860 372873 371881
      374886 362907 360912 359904 358898 360895 361891 359888
      356886 351887 347891 337897 332907 329913 327920 316945
      312957 306968 304975 301981 297986 293990 290993 283994
      278994 276995 276000 277002 287012 291014 294016 297015
      300013 305016 310020 317022 321022 325021 329018 334013
      337008 346983 350977 354972 359968 364965 373960 379957
      387957 400953 410949 418949 422945
 0.25 390199 391197 391195 390194 388193 387193 385192 383192
      381192 380192 379193 379194 379195 380197 381197 382199
      383200 384201 385201 387201 388201 389200 390199
 0.25 339746 337734 334719 333712 330715 328727 325738 323747
      320759 319764 319772 320774 323775 328772 332769 334764
      338753 339746
 0.25 286812 285810 284810 282809 281809 280808 278808 276807
      275807 274807 273807 273810 274811 275812 277813 278813
      279813 281814 282815 283815 284815 286814 286812
 0.50 409926 410921 408917 403911 400909 396908 392909 387910
      382915 380917 380922 382929 384933 387936 394936 402933
      407931 409926
 0.50 367949 367947 366945 364943 363943 361944 359945 357947
      356949 356952 357954 357955 358956 359957 361957 362956
      363956 364954 365954 366952 366951 367949
 0.50 341965 342958 342950 340936 338932 334930 331929 329931
      326935 325940 323947 321958 319964 317969 313973 311977
      309982 306985 299992 292999 284997 281999 284004 288008
      293010 295010 300008 306009 311011 315013 319014 325013
      329012 331007 333000 334994 336988 338976 341965
 1.00 326001 327997 327993 327988 326985 324983 321984 319986
      317988 316990 316994 317996 317001 318004 322005 325003
      326001
 1.00 309998 309996 309994 308993 306993 304994 303996 303998
      304999 306999 308000 309998

$$





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