Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 220644
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
244 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 22/1200 UTC THRU JUN 23/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS...

*SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING REMAINS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CINDY.*

EXTENSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
ON THURSDAY, AS TROPICAL STORM CINDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
PER LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM NHC. THE OVERALL ASYMMETRIC PATTERN
WILL PERSIST WITH MOST OF THE TROPICAL RAINS OCCURRING INVOF THE
MODERATE SIZE CIRCULATION AND EAST OF THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE PLUME, SURGING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. ANOTHER AREA THAT WILL BEGIN
TO GET INTO THE ACTION IS UP THE OH RIVER, AS THIS MOISTURE BEGINS
TO FOCUS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE AND INTERACT WITH THE WESTERLIES
ALOFT. THE GUIDANCE HAS THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN AND SCENARIO
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALONG WITH THE HEAVIER LOCATIONS FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS. WPC GENERALLY USED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND FOR QPF, A
MIXTURE OF THE 12Z/21 ECMWF AND 00Z GFS WITH 00Z NAM CONEST,
HRW-ARW, HRW-NNMB AND WRF-NSSL. THE BIGGEST AREAS OF CONCERN IS
NEAR THE FORECAST TRACK OF CINDY OR FROM JUST NORTH OF IAH/GLS
THROUGH EASTERN TX/LFK INTO NWRN LA/SHV INTO SRN-SERN AR/ELD AND
EASTERN LIT INTO EASTERN-NERN AR/JUST WEST OF MEM TO JBR TO WHERE
THE MS RIVER MEETS THE OH. WITHIN THIS AXIS AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EASILY LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES UP
TO 10-12 INCHES. MULTIPLE FEEDER BANDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE
CONSENSUS FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF LA AND COASTAL
AREAS/SOUTHERN MS/AL AND EXTREME WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. IN THESE
MAINLY SOUTH TO NORTH TRAINING CONVECTIVE BANDS, WPC WENT WITH 1-3
INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS BUT VALUES COULD EASILY APPROACH 7-8 INCHES
IN PROLONGED BANDS. FINALLY THE MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH THE
WESTERLIES SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO FLOURISH OVER TN/KY AND SOUTHERN
IL/IN/OH WITH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES IS PROGGED BUT UP TO
4 POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOWER OH RIVER.

FOR MORE ON CINDY, PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.


...UPPER TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED FROM PARTS OF
THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND VERY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL INTERACT WITH
INCREASING AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE, PWS AOA 2 INCHES. FAVORABLE
RIGHT HAND ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS SHOULD FUEL THE ENHANCED
VERTICAL LIFT ALONG THE WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM MN/IA TO MI. A MULTI-MODEL APPROACH WAS TAKEN FOR
QPF WITH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM IA/SRN MN
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL WI INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI WITH THE MOST
VULNERABILITY FROM RST/LSE TO GRB.

MUSHER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 561082 557053 555037 554029 554020 554015 553012 553007
      553993 553959 553923 551894 549881 545870 542859 538850
      533842 527832 521821 521812 519806 512786 508779 501775
      492771 485766 479743 477738 476732 471721 462703 460699
      457696 454693 449691 427693 420697 416698 414701 407720
      403728 402730 402734 405739 409738 411734 411728 414723
      418715 423714 428714 429718 429722 429726 427728 424731
      420734 418735 418738 413748 404750 394756 387755 382756
      380758 374759 371754 369756 366757 354746 346751 336751
      326766 317779 316783 316790 316794 315796 313801 311806
      306810 301811 297810 289808 282804 275800 271798 269795
      265794 260797 263803 260805 257804 251799 247801 245805
      241811 241817 243822 246822 249818 250814 253811 255816
      260818 268825 266829 262832 262836 264839 273842 289841
      293844 292848 289856 284864 276869 261879 255884 249891
      249902 249909 252912 262915 264918 264922 262927 262939
      265948 268956 276958 282959 285961 288964 292966 301968
      305970 312969 319969 324968 328967 331964 338960 346956
      352950 357948 361950 364947 368943 369940 371941 371949
      374953 375956 374959 369966 378979 374988 370991 367992
      362993 359997 351998 347000 332005 326005 322007 317007
      316011 316014 318015 322016 333019 339021 339026 333027
      331032 338037 340039 345038 352036 355036 357038 358040
      366036 367032 372031 372035 372040 369043 365047 365051
      371056 371062 373065 387064 395069 395078 394086 394093
      396092 400081 404072 409071 414071 413065 414062 416062
      415058 417035 416026 417018 417011 416004 415996 413993
      410990 409984 412976 414972 419971 422971 422978 422992
 0.01 422992 422003 422007 425010 427016 428023 433027 438032
      440034 442033 445027 449022 453015 454005 456999 457989
      459981 465981 469974 469971 472968 474965 475971 476977
      479979 482980 484977 487977 491978 492983 490992 487997
      486009 486015 483019 480023 475021 469018 466018 466021
      469028 470031 470036 467043 466049 468051 471056 472060
      472065 474073 475076 477076 479076 479082 479087 480090
      480101 480105 483104 486103 487108 487118 488125 482125
      478120 474114 471108 467102 465104 464107 467110 475122
      477129 481133 485139 491144 498154 512176 516182 521188
      525193 530195 534193 535188 537185 538175 537170 540168
      544163 547154 552140 554117 557097 561082
 0.01 467927 467925 467922 467920 466917 465915 465917 464920
      464922 464925 464927 463930 464932 465930 467927
 0.01 385203 387198 386196 381191 376188 372184 367180 363181
      362184 364185 367189 372194 377198 382201 385203
 0.01 378929 378927 378925 377924 376925 375927 373929 373930
      372932 371932 370934 370936 371938 373936 375934 375933
      376931 377931 378929
 0.01 369773 369770 368768 368766 367764 365766 366768 366771
      367773 368774 369773
 0.01 348112 346107 343102 340096 337091 335086 332084 331088
      333090 336095 338100 341105 344111 348112
 0.01 316118 317110 314104 313101 313096 314088 309075 300077
      295073 292067 290062 288060 285059 283066 279063 272062
      269060 265060 258059 250056 246054 237046 233046 231048
      234054 242062 245067 250071 259078 266087 271091 275094
      283096 287096 288098 287099 303114 307117 310118 316118
 0.25 516156 514152 511149 508146 505141 502138 499135 497137
      498142 501147 503150 507153 510155 515157 516156
 0.25 519020 520007 520994 519983 520970 517968 514967 511969
      511975 510986 510998 510009 510022 511028 512031 517025
      519020
 0.25 519855 518846 516841 509833 502827 498825 494825 490828
      488833 486839 485846 484853 484857 485861 487863 490862
      492858 496855 500855 504858 509859 514859 518857 519855
 0.25 515931 514929 514928 513929 512931 513934 514934 515931
      515931
 0.25 496932 496929 496926 496924 495923 495924 495927 495929
      495932 496932 496932
 0.25 473788 472779 469765 465742 462734 458727 453723 449725
      442725 440727 439731 438740 434747 429752 425758 422761
      422764 426769 429776 429782 426784 420780 419771 419768
      416765 411765 408771 401771 393772 389777 380787 376792
      374797 372800 359796 352798 347798 345802 345814 343817
      339816 335813 335806 342792 345785 346781 345779 343781
      334791 330798 328805 327807 324810 318813 302818 293816
      288818 283817 277820 274823 277825 280826 282829 285830
      289829 304826 314826 321826 326827 328828 333834 332839
      327844 322848 318855 302862 293871 283878 272886 266890
      265893 270894 276897 282900 283907 282914 277930 275934
      275940 277943 281945 285948 287955 288958 292959 300960
      308961 314960 323958 327956 340948 345942 350937 355933
      361927 371916 380905 384901 389896 397886 402881 408877
      413871 419871 422872 419874 416880 411885 407892 402899
      396906 392910 390916 394930 388934 387937 389939 396938
      403938 413949 420952 425954 427958 427963 427970 428975
      431976 433971 437964 439961 440962 441967 441978 441983
      439987 436993 436998 438002 441008 446009 448006 450998
      450980 454962 455918 458904 461883 471850 472830 472808
      473788
 0.25 412833 413831 412829 410829 410831 409833 408834 408836
      407837 407838 405840 405841 404842 403843 403846 404846
      406846 407845 409843 410840 410838 411838 411835 412833
      412833
 0.25 412826 413824 412821 411820 409821 409822 409824 410826
      410828 412827 412826
 0.25 410047 408038 406030 402023 395020 390022 389028 389037
      391045 390052 397057 402058 404058 407056 410047 410047
 0.25 390002 391997 387996 380997 373000 369006 363005 360008
      358011 361018 367019 369022 374022 378023 381019 384018
      386018 389014 389009 388004 390002 390002
 0.25 383011 385008 383008 381008 379010 379013 379014 381015
      382013 383011 383011
 0.25 343886 342885 340885 338885 336886 336887 334888 333889
      332891 333892 335892 336892 338891 339891 340890 342888
      343886
 0.25 283082 283080 281079 279079 278080 278082 279082 281082
      283082 283082
 0.25 276079 277077 276077 274077 276079 276079
 0.50 467796 467787 466777 463764 459750 457745 454741 449739
      444742 438750 433759 430764 430767 431771 434775 435779
      435784 433795 430807 429820 425824 424829 426831 428836
      430843 429850 426856 425862 426867 428873 429883 427888
      425892 418898 416894 414891 403909 395914 393917 395919
      400921 406921 408927 411931 412938 414943 419943 424942
      428938 430944 431954 433958 437956 445934 449921 452909
      453903 455896 457884 460870 462858 465831 467812 467796
 0.50 420794 415776 407782 399783 394786 383793 382796 382802
      381812 380820 376824 372829 366826 365823 365819 364811
      360806 356808 354811 349815 347821 343827 341835 337847
      331852 324855 319860 314861 308863 301866 298872 294876
      284888 283890 284892 291894 293897 293901 293908 291915
      288920 279932 277937 279940 281941 287943 289946 290950
      295955 301957 310958 320956 330950 337948 341943 344937
      348933 353929 359923 366914 376904 379899 383895 388889
      394884 398879 401874 408863 412857 415850 415846 413843
      407849 405851 402851 401847 401842 405827 407818 410812
      412806 418805 419802 420798 420794
 0.50 351886 345879 341878 336879 332881 329885 327889 325891
      318898 316901 313905 316909 321911 329906 335901 339899
      342896 347889 351886
 0.50 313820 312819 310820 309820 310821 312821 313820
 0.50 298823 296821 294819 292820 290822 288821 287820 283820
      280821 279823 281825 283825 287826 289824 292823 295824
      298823
 1.00 460822 460810 460800 457790 455783 450779 444782 441788
      440796 437804 434809 434817 435825 435831 433835 435845
      435850 433854 430859 429863 430866 433871 433880 432888
      429897 426902 424906 424911 426916 428918 432923 432933
      436947 441933 446918 453886 454876 456869 456858 458850
      459835 460822
 1.00 393876 393874 393873 393874 392876 393878 393876
 1.00 393860 394858 392856 391858 391860 392862 393860
 1.00 392870 392867 392865 392863 391862 390863 389865 389866
      388868 389869 390870 391871 392870
 1.00 390840 391836 388834 386839 384844 381847 377848 372852
      370856 366858 362861 359865 355873 356878 359883 363885
      360889 347903 338904 330910 322915 313919 310919 307917
      301916 295917 288924 283931 281935 284936 296936 301928
      306928 306933 302941 299944 299949 302952 307955 316953
      332945 335945 339941 344934 350927 355921 362912 368907
      372903 374898 378891 383881 383875 386871 382861 385850
      388845 390840
 1.00 362845 354842 353837 355833 357829 361827 359821 356821
      351826 346834 344845 346849 345853 343858 343861 344863
      353859 358852 362845
 1.00 334867 332862 328861 321867 316866 313867 308867 305870
      299878 297884 299889 301894 300897 305896 309892 312890
      318888 321878 330873 334867
 1.50 456818 456807 455798 452793 450791 447791 445793 444798
      444805 441811 438811 436813 441827 440832 438833 436835
      436840 439840 441838 443840 442844 442851 439858 437865
      438871 437885 436895 434902 434907 436905 437909 437919
      436926 438933 440929 441920 443915 446908 446901 450886
      451869 453861 453854 455837 456818
 1.50 436864 435863 433861 432861 432864 433865 435865 436864
 1.50 433911 433909 433911 433912 433911
 1.50 375891 375887 373885 370885 369888 363894 356901 348905
      338908 331913 324919 319926 316928 313927 310929 311932
      307939 304944 305950 308952 312951 322948 329943 335941
      337938 343932 355917 360909 367904 372897 375891
 1.50 373862 374860 373859 372860 372862 373862 373862
 1.50 313881 313879 312879 310879 309879 307879 305878 305877
      305878 303879 303880 302882 302884 303886 304886 305888
      307887 308886 309886 311884 312883 313881
 1.50 301922 299920 298920 297920 296920 295920 294922 293922
      292924 292926 291927 292929 294931 296930 297929 297928
      299926 301924 301922 301922
 2.00 453821 453816 453811 452806 451803 450801 449804 449809
      449812 449816 449821 449826 450831 452831 452828 453823
      453821
 2.00 451848 451840 449841 447846 446853 445858 443861 443868
      444874 446875 447870 449865 451860 451853 451848
 2.00 369898 370896 370894 369892 367894 365896 364898 363898
      362901 361903 362904 364903 365903 365902 367901 368900
      369899 369898
 2.00 357907 356905 352905 346907 342910 337911 328919 324926
      319929 314933 310937 306943 305947 307950 319947 325943
      330939 335936 339932 344926 347921 351916 355912 357907
 2.00 311882 311881 309881 307881 305881 305882 305883 307883
      309883 311882 311882
 2.00 297926 298924 297923 296924 295925 294926 295927 297927
      297926
 3.00 340921 340917 337916 335917 333920 332922 330925 329928
      327930 326932 328934 332933 334932 335930 337927 339923
      340921
 3.00 321943 321941 320939 320937 319936 318937 317937 316938
      314939 312941 312942 311943 312945 314946 316946 317946
      319945 321943
 4.00 336926 336923 336921 335920 334921 334922 333924 332926
      331928 330930 332931 333930 334929 335928 335926 336926

$$





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