Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 241827
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 PM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 25/0000 UTC THRU MAR 26/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...WRN U.S...

MDTLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF APCHG THE WEST COAST IS FCST TO
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ACRS THE WRN U.S. DURING THE DAY 1 PD WITH TROF
SPLITTING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST..WITH STGR
JET ENERGY FOCUSING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROF THRU THE SRN GT
BASIN BY SAT EVENING.  MODELS SHOW REASONABLY GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A
GENL WEAKENING OF THE PCPN SHIELD AS IT MOVES ACRS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A GRADUAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPR TROF.
 HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS ARE FCST ACRS THE SIERRAS WITH BULK OF PCPN
OCCURRING EARLY IN THE PD WITH MAIN HEIGHT FALLS AND UPSLOPE FLOW
CONDS.  POST FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDS
ACRS THE PAC NW WITH COASTAL SHOWERS AND HIER ELEV SNOWS WITH MDT
QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACRS THE COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES.
FARTHER EAST..LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT QPF AMOUNT ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
ASSOCD PAC FRONT AS IT MOVES ACRS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND
THRU THE GT BASIN.  FOR MOST AREAS...CONTINUITY WAS GENLY FOLLOWED
WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS GIVEN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.

...LOW/MIDDLE MS VALLEY INTO THE GT LAKES AND NE...

WELL DEFINED NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE AS OF 18Z IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD..REACHING THE VCNTY
OF THE MO/IL BORDER REGION BY SAT EVENING.  DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE LOW SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD WARM SECTOR CONVECTION FROM THE
MID MS VALLEY SWD INTO ERN TX/LA BY FRI EVENING AS WELL DEFINED
VORT LOBE PIVOTS EWD ACRS CNTL TX AND ENHANCES LIFT..ESPECIALLY
ACRS ERN TX INTO LA WHERE MODELS SUGGEST AXIS OF GREATER THAN 2
THSD J/KG MUCAPE WILL BE PRESENT.  SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH POTNL SQLN DVLPMENT ACRS THE REGION THIS EVENING..BUT GENL
TRENDS SUGGEST HEAVIER CONVECTIVE BAND WILL BE IN PLACE ACRS WRN
PORTIONS OF LA BY START OF PD TO SUPPORT INCREASING AMOUNTS FROM
CONTINUITY THERE.  WITH MODELS SHOWING COLLAPSING THICKNESSES
WITHIN LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW GENLY A GOOD INDICATION OF HEAVY
RAIN...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 12Z ARW..CANADIAN GEM..AND NSSL WRF
IN SHOWING 1 TO 1.5+ INCH AREAL AVG RAINS ACRS ERN TX INTO MUCH OF
NRN LA/SRN AR THIS EVENING.  WHILE THIS BAND MAY TEND TO WEAKENING
EARLY SAT..WITH UPR TROF TAKING ON A MORE NEG TILT ON SAT...HAVE
FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE WRF ARW..CANADIAN GEM IN SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS ACRS ERN MS/WRN AL SAT AFTN.
FARTHER N...MDTLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO PSBL ACRS PORTIONS OF THE
MID MS VALLEY WITH SLOWER PIVOTING AREA OF CONVECTION WITH THE UPR
LOW.  FARTHER NORTH...STG CONFLUENT UPR FLOW ACRS SE CANADA WILL
SUPPORT STG HIGH OVER SRN CANADA..WITH WARM CONVEYOR OVERRUNNING
THE STG HIGH ENFORCED E/W FRONT ACRS THE GT LAKES.  HAVE TRENDED
SWD SLIGHTLY WITH AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINS FROM CONTINUITY WITH
SLIGHT SHIFT SWD OF MID/UPR CONFLUENCE ACRS THE GT LAKES.
MULTIPLE E/W BANDED FEATURES ARE INDICATED IN THE MODELS WITH
MANUAL QPF TAKING AN ENSEMBLE APCH HERE GIVEN THE MODEST SPREAD IN
QPF AMOUNTS.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 26/00Z
 0.01 544098 543086 541073 540062 539046 538033 538016 539009
      539001 538996 536993 534994 529994 526996 524999 521004
      520033 515040 511050 510053 511058 517065 520068 523072
      526081 529092 531098 534101 537102 539101 543100 544098
 0.01 527207 528193 527187 528180 525171 521162 518153 514144
      512139 509136 499133 481128 478125 477121 477114 476109
      473100 471095 469092 466080 464076 460072 457071 453072
      447068 442065 437066 434068 420078 414082 407086 400092
      395097 390102 382105 377107 371106 367103 364101 359100
      357102 357107 358111 360114 358117 355117 353115 347112
      345114 345119 348126 359139 361150 361156 364161 365162
      369159 370164 368167 363177 362180 358182 355182 352185
      346191 339194 336199 335207 333218 340223 342224 345222
      348220 349225 355232 359239 369242 379243 383245 387247
      396250 401252 406255 412257 417257 423258 433261 441263
      449260 459262 467263 475266 479269 481274 486280 492287
      495287 500288 504289 509286 512285 513280 515272 517267
      519255 516247 515242 515234 512224 511218 511212 511205
      513203 515204 522206 526208 527207
 0.01 484687 476652 460636 451629 438634 434636 430638 421641
      418645 414653 411659 407665 404670 403675 400689 400693
      400697 400705 400713 400725 398740 398747 399759 402766
      401771 400774 395779 392785 389790 388795 390797 393796
      396796 399793 403790 406789 407790 409792 411797 410804
      410815 407822 399835 396841 395844 392846 376847 369848
      363847 355847 348848 336851 318853 313855 304856 291859
      285862 275863 264856 261854 258852 255852 252850 251852
      251855 252857 258860 263861 267865 268874 267889 265896
      265905 266916 268920 268925 277921 278918 281920 282926
      283933 284937 282940 280945 281954 297969 306969 310966
      323957 328954 334952 340949 346949 350963 360968 366983
      370983 378981 384980 391980 399980 404981 406984 408986
      406990 403997 398009 397016 396021 398023 400025 406022
      411020 414018 415015 418010 421004 428990 434973 435966
      438959 442945 446929 449915 451899 453879 456863 458842
      458832 458823 457812 456806 454786 452766 453758 456749
      458741 461736 465722 467714 471708 484687
 0.01 485197 482194 478193 470191 466190 463192 457197 453201
      450204 447205 444206 442205 439197 438192 436189 431189
      428191 423194 421195 421198 423200 425205 429206 431208
      436209 450209 456207 463203 468202 475201 481199 485197
 0.01 456695 453691 449687 446686 443689 440692 436695 436702
      438709 440714 441716 443717 446714 449709 450706 453701
      454698 456695
 0.01 421214 421212 420210 418211 417213 418214 419215 421214
 0.01 343182 343177 342175 343171 341168 339167 336167 332166
      330166 332167 336168 339170 340172 341175 341179 341182
      343182
 0.01 353830 353828 353826 352826 351828 349831 349833 351833
      353831 353830
 0.01 296809 292803 289801 285800 280797 273795 264795 262794
      264791 263789 258790 251793 245796 241803 239809 241817
      246821 250816 257813 262808 263804 265805 273807 278809
      286811 291812 296809
 0.25 505239 505232 507229 506223 504214 499209 494206 489206
      481206 476209 472211 466213 454216 447216 441217 436218
      430221 422232 416234 412238 412240 414243 421246 428245
      433243 438241 443238 447234 449229 451227 453229 452233
      450234 449238 455241 460240 463238 465239 470243 477247
      482250 487256 490262 493268 497268 499263 497247 502241
      505239
 0.25 504171 505169 504167 503167 501167 500167 500170 501171
      502172 504171 504171
 0.25 492240 492238 491232 490229 489227 487225 484224 481223
      479225 477226 477229 478230 481234 482236 484238 486237
      488239 490241 492240
 0.25 476159 474155 471152 466145 459142 456144 454147 452151
      448152 442146 438139 434138 432140 429142 426141 422140
      419143 417154 414157 414161 416164 419163 423160 423152
      425150 429150 434158 439163 444166 446169 449170 452170
      454166 457162 461161 466163 471163 474161 476159
 0.25 449116 448112 446107 443104 437103 424114 417117 413119
      409120 408117 410114 411109 409103 407102 405106 400115
      394121 389127 386131 386134 388136 390140 395142 402139
      408138 411137 417132 423126 430121 434119 438118 445120
      449116
 0.25 448824 448818 447811 445802 442793 440783 438733 438728
      435725 431723 429726 426735 425743 422753 421763 421787
      420807 418827 417837 416847 411856 408865 404871 398875
      391879 383881 373880 370878 368874 358861 352859 343859
      327862 317865 309868 296875 291881 290890 292909 293914
      293918 292928 291939 294945 298952 300955 303958 317952
      321949 326949 333945 336943 339943 344942 350941 360942
      367943 369947 368950 367956 368961 370964 375965 377970
      380971 384970 386968 388966 391967 394969 402972 409975
      416977 419975 422972 427953 430944 434935 444900 445890
      446876 447865 447853 447836 448824
 0.25 412221 412219 412218 410218 409218 408219 407220 408221
      409223 409224 410223 411223 412221
 0.25 414170 413165 410163 407156 405153 402153 399153 397150
      395147 392146 387151 384159 384162 389164 395161 398159
      402159 407163 410165 411169 414170
 0.25 403216 402210 400206 394200 386195 380189 377187 371185
      366185 363186 365196 366200 369204 371208 375209 384210
      392214 400218 403216
 0.25 374220 372216 370215 365214 362211 359210 356205 353206
      352208 353213 356218 359220 364221 369222 373221 374220
 0.25 384138 383134 380133 378132 376130 373128 371130 369133
      369138 370141 371145 373146 376147 378145 380142 382140
      384138
 0.50 503236 503231 502225 501217 499214 496213 493214 489211
      485210 481209 475214 476217 483219 487221 490221 492227
      496236 498237 501236 503236
 0.50 497265 498263 498260 498258 497258 496256 495255 493254
      492252 491253 492254 492256 492258 493259 493261 494262
      495264 495265 497266 497265
 0.50 481242 481239 480238 479236 478234 476234 475234 474237
      474239 475240 476242 478243 480243 481242
 0.50 447224 448221 447220 445220 444220 443221 441222 441224
      442226 444226 445226 446225 447224
 0.50 444111 444110 442110 440110 442111 443111 444111
 0.50 424241 422240 421239 420240 421241 422241 424241
 0.50 440834 440822 438814 435794 433780 431770 428767 427772
      425779 424789 424800 424810 426816 425822 422839 418858
      417868 415876 413882 407887 401893 398896 394896 379891
      373889 366889 360887 355886 353883 353878 355875 356872
      355867 352865 348864 339864 323867 317869 310872 303877
      299883 298891 299899 301907 302917 302922 299931 299934
      301936 305941 304946 304951 307953 311952 324947 337941
      366936 372934 377938 382940 384938 387938 393941 396939
      398940 397945 399948 398954 397959 397966 403970 408970
      414966 416957 420949 424942 426933 429916 431909 435902
      438899 439894 440882 441872 440861 439846 440834
 0.50 395207 395204 392202 389200 386198 383195 379192 374189
      369190 371195 373199 376202 379204 385206 390208 392209
      395207
 0.50 363218 363217 362215 361215 360214 358214 359216 360217
      361218 363218 363218
 1.00 432876 431868 430864 428863 424867 422874 423879 421883
      419888 416893 413900 415900 420897 423891 425885 430882
      432876
 1.00 407963 406961 405961 403960 402960 401961 401963 402964
      403965 405965 407963
 1.00 401913 402910 400910 396908 389908 382904 376903 371904
      364909 361912 359916 359919 362923 371924 376924 380922
      385921 389924 392924 396923 401915 401913
 1.00 381199 381197 381196 379197 378199 380200 381199
 1.00 364898 365896 363896 362896 360897 358898 357899 356899
      355900 353901 352901 351902 350903 351905 353904 355904
      357903 358902 360902 362901 364900 364898
 1.00 351906 345906 341907 339909 334913 328915 324912 317909
      312913 309920 307927 308932 312931 314930 314933 311939
      309946 312948 314947 327942 332939 336934 339929 342926
      341923 339919 341916 344914 346912 344910 347909 351906
 1.00 349870 349868 348867 346866 344867 343868 341869 339870
      338871 337872 337874 336876 338878 339877 341876 343875
      345874 346873 348871 349870
 1.00 329874 328871 325872 319874 314876 310880 307884 305888
      307895 313893 316889 320884 323881 328876 329874
 1.00 327894 325892 323894 320895 318896 315898 313900 312903
      313906 317905 319903 320901 322900 324898 326896 327894
 1.50 377913 378911 377909 376908 375908 373909 372909 371910
      369911 368913 366914 368915 369916 371916 373916 375915
      376914 377913
 1.50 325934 323934 322934 321935 319936 318937 317937 316938
      315939 314941 316943 317942 319941 321939 322939 323938
      324937 325935 325934
 1.50 320917 319915 317913 316913 315914 314915 314918 313920
      312922 313924 314924 315923 316922 317921 318920 319919
      320917

$$




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