Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 221905
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
205 PM EST WED FEB 22 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 23/0000 UTC THRU FEB 24/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...FLORIDA/SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...

A POWERFUL UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DRIVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE LATITUDE AS IT MOVES TOWARD
SOUTH FLORIDA. IMPRESSIVE 500-MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE ADVERTISED
WITH SUGGESTIONS OF DEPARTURES IN THE 2 TO 3 SIGMA BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY RANGE. CURRENT BLENDED-TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE BEST AXIS
OF MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SUNSHINE STATE AND
WILL MOVE OFF TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BY LATER THIS EVENING. WHILE A
CORE OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY LATE TONIGHT...THE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A BACKING OF
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH MAY ALLOW THE ACTIVITY TO HANG OUT NEAR
THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COASTLINE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE KEEP THIS HEAVIER AXIS OF RAINFALL
JUST OFFSHORE GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
POOL. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO BRING THIS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE COAST TO WARRANT WATCHING. EVENTUALLY...ONLY LINGERING
SHOWERS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW ARE EXPECTED AS BETTER SURFACE
CONVERGENCE SHIFTS INTO THE BAHAMAS. GENERALLY MAINTAINED
CONTINUITY WITH SOME ADDITIONS MADE FROM THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/HRW-ARW
SOLUTIONS. OVERALL...THIS DID NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST FOR THE MOST
PART.


...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...GREAT BASIN INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES/GREAT PLAINS...

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING THROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN CA INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WILL CARRY RATHER LOW 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE REGION. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACCOMPANYING THIS SHOT OF COLDER AIR SHOULD FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT
OF NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ALREADY SCOURED OUT BY THE
PREVIOUS SURGE INTO THE WEST COAST...THIS NEXT BAND OF FORCING
WILL HAVE TO RELY MORE ON DYNAMICAL/OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST. THE MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT DOES NOT
REALLY UNFOLD UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW
EMERGES OFF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. STRONG
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SOME SORT OF NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING UP INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN WYOMING. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE IS QUITE HEAVY WITH MANY SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING OVER 1
INCH QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM HAS
REMAINED ONE OF THE MORE BULLISH OF THE MODEL SUITE FAVORING
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES NEAR THE WYOMING/SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER. IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING SURFACE
CYCLONE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TAKES SHAPE OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS A SLUG OF 0.50 INCH PLUS PRECIPITABLE
WATER AIR BISECTS THE FRONTAL ZONE. A COMBINATION OF BETTER
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COUPLED WITH INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD HELP SPREAD MODEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ENDED UP
STICKING CLOSER TO THE TRIO OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AS WELL AS
THE 06Z IN-HOUSE PSEUDO-ENSEMBLE BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL. THIS
REMAINED IN LINE WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONTINUITY AND STAYS WELL
SOUTH OF THE 12Z NAM AND THEIR CORRESPONDING HIGH-RESOLUTION
WINDOWS.


...GREAT LAKES/INTERIOR NORTHEASTERN U.S...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL SET A FOCUS FOR LIGHT/MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST FOCUS SHOULD BE ALONG THE ATTENDANT
FRONTAL ZONE ALTHOUGH MOST OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NORTH
OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH CANADA. AS A RESULT...DID NOT
MAKE TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS EXCEPT SLIGHTLY RAISING AMOUNTS ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST FLANK WHERE MORE RECENT GUIDANCE AUGMENTED THEIR
FORECASTS.


RUBIN-OSTER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 24/00Z
 0.01 527158 523147 516141 509133 506129 505124 503112 506098
      507096 507092 508085 503075 496061 494059 490060 487064
      484062 481063 479069 478076 476082 473083 471082 467080
      463077 461072 460065 458059 456053 457046 455034 452022
      452014 452006 452988 452975 450964 447943 446931 445925
      443920 440918 434918 426914 422911 419905 419891 418874
      416870 415862 414835 414828 415823 424818 429819 430824
      432831 433839 432842 433845 436847 438849 442850 440855
      436859 436863 438868 442870 446870 452870 456872 458875
      459883 459892 458898 458916 458923 459929 460936 462942
      466942 469942 471940 474932 478921 479917 482912 485900
      487895 489890 492881 494869 496863 496857 500850 503839
      502822 500817 500809 502795 502787 503781 509758 512747
      515737 515721 517710 514678 514672 513663 512655 510649
      506640 502630 497623 491619 479623 476626 473630 468639
      465652 459671 460678 459685 459692 457697 454704 452708
      448711 443717 439726 432732 427740 425744 422747 418750
      412753 407756 404759 398766 386782 385786 384791 379799
      376803 374808 373813 374820 374828 374833 372837 366845
      365847 367851 369856 371855 376853 382853 385856 387860
      385863 382873 382881 383887 387896 390901 390905 389908
      387912 387920 385924 385931 380940 379950 379958 380963
      385963 390965 393965 395968 396971 396975 399997 395022
      392030 392041 395048 394051 391052 387053 382053 377051
      373050 366050 363052 359054 357058 357062 355064 356068
      358072 363074 370080 370085 368089 363089 361092 363095
      368097 367103 364105 365110 369111 375102 381106 388103
      390104 390109 387111 381112 378116 376120 372122 365120
      359120 350119 350124 354128 357129 361126 367127 367130
      361138 360143 361149 359170 361170 365166 368158 373149
      380145 384144 387148 390155
 0.01 390155 386184 390190 391193 389195 381192 376191 374193
      374198 376203 378205 383210 389215 395219 399219 403220
      405221 404224 402227 399229 394228 392230 385232 382234
      377233 369230 365229 363230 358232 359235 361238 365239
      368242 372245 374248 382251 387257 391262 396266 403269
      409266 416267 425269 433270 440271 443274 447276 450279
      452280 455281 457278 458269 455261 461256 465248 469245
      478246 482243 481235 480230 478228 478225 479224 482223
      489226 490221 491216 480210 474209 472213 469213 463213
      460215 456215 447213 440213 438209 440205 446203 451198
      453196 455193 456188 459185 463181 463175 461172 459168
      462166 463162 466161 469163 472163 475162 478165 483161
      484158 482155 477151 474148 474143 477141 481142 484148
      487157 496164 504167 511166 517167 521164 524164 525162
      527158
 0.01 444179 444172 441166 437163 434157 432154 432150 433145
      432141 430142 428146 426153 427158 428160 431165 433171
      433176 435178 442180 444179
 0.01 384692 384687 381685 376687 375689 371691 367698 364712
      361719 358725 354732 348737 342741 339744 335745 327746
      322747 319745 313730 310722 306715 300713 296712 292713
      280721 267728 254734 246738 240741 233745 228749 220758
      210768 208771 208775 211781 216783 224783 227789 228793
      228799 227807 228814 231820 233829 234832 237833 242832
      244825 244820 246817 249811 255807 259807 261809 266813
      270818 272822 274823 280827 284832 290837 295835 299830
      304824 312823 314824 318823 323819 325817 325812 320805
      322797 329784 338773 347765 357753 365741 379716 383704
      384692
 0.01 343180 344178 344175 344173 343171 342170 341168 339167
      337167 337170 339170 341171 342173 341175 341177 341179
      343180 343180
 0.25 517153 516150 514149 512147 510145 507143 505142 502140
      500142 498144 498146 499149 501152 504154 507154 510156
      513157 516156 517153
 0.25 502710 500699 497690 496668 494663 491660 485661 482663
      481666 479674 476683 474692 471700 467706 464713 462722
      461738 456776 452792 451799 453804 457810 462815 467821
      472826 475832 479834 481831 485823 489806 496769 501752
      503743 503733 502719 502710
 0.25 450247 451243 450240 446238 435237 432238 428240 419239
      414238 410240 407241 405245 407250 412251 421251 429251
      438252 446250 450247
 0.25 464112 463107 463102 461099 456090 454078 453072 450068
      443059 441047 444034 442024 441015 441006 439993 436980
      434976 429975 425977 422981 418993 410015 408021 407027
      407032 408039 408046 407051 403054 401056 400060 397063
      392066 388067 385073 379078 386086 395091 399094 400100
      403101 403105 400109 392112 383117 379120 377125 375129
      379132 385132 389130 396124 401125 406126 415125 420124
      423121 432114 437113 442115 449116 454117 454123 456124
      458121 464112
 0.25 451090 451088 451086 450085 449084 447083 446082 444081
      442080 441081 441084 441086 441089 442089 442091 443093
      444094 445094 446096 447094 448093 449092 450091 451090
 0.25 421143 422140 421140 421143 421143
 0.25 317776 316766 313758 308750 305744 301722 299719 296718
      293719 290721 285727 276729 260735 246742 240746 235752
      217772 219774 222773 226773 229776 233792 234798 234803
      234811 237812 240810 243804 257796 264796 270800 276805
      280811 286817 292820 299818 306815 309807 312802 314795
      313790 315787 317780 317776
 0.50 490711 486692 482692 481696 477703 474710 472718 473728
      473737 468752 465761 464766 465772 471776 477778 480779
      482778 485771 486760 487750 487727 489719 490711
 0.50 445072 438055 434045 433039 434033 435018 435011 435004
      433999 430995 426997 424001 420009 417020 415025 415032
      412043 412050 412057 414062 417062 420062 422064 422068
      420079 418086 423088 429094 431093 432089 433082 436073
      441072 445072
 0.50 390123 391121 390119 388119 387120 386120 384122 382123
      382124 381126 382127 384127 385127 386126 387125 388125
      390123 390123
 0.50 312775 312770 311765 308758 304754 300749 298739 297734
      299730 299726 297722 295721 292723 288728 281730 268734
      254740 244747 228767 233771 236776 236784 237792 237796
      239801 243800 249797 255794 262792 266795 276801 285811
      290814 297814 303810 306805 308790 309785 310781 312775
 1.00 434068 434065 433062 431059 428054 425053 423053 423055
      424060 426064 427070 425077 425080 429080 431073 433070
      434068
 1.00 306776 305770 300768 297765 294761 293753 293746 293733
      293729 289731 277734 266738 258742 248748 245751 242755
      241760 244764 242773 253774 257776 258783 261786 266788
      273794 281800 287806 292809 298807 301802 302798 306776
 1.50 298785 297777 294773 291770 287768 283765 282761 284758
      285752 288749 290744 289738 285736 281735 272737 262742
      255747 250750 248754 249758 251761 249765 249768 251769
      261769 272784 275787 278792 281795 284797 290804 295803
      298800 298785
 2.00 292780 289775 284773 280771 274769 271771 271775 275780
      278784 282790 286793 290795 292795 292791 292782 292780
 2.00 281742 278739 274739 270740 266742 263745 262748 266750
      265753 267757 271759 273756 272754 275750 277747 280743
      281742

$$





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