Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 121822
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
121 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2018


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 13/0000 UTC THRU JAN 14/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...EAST...

A LARGE SCALE WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT AN EXTENSIVE AREA ACROSS
THE EAST ON SAT. MULTIPLE PRECIP TYPES WILL BE VERY LIKELY FROM
THIS DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON SAT, WHILE THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE TAKES
A NEG TILT AND ALLOWS A PLETHORA OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD AND ENCOMPASS THE STORM SYSTEM. THIS VERY WELL
MAY SET THE STAGE FOR TWO HEAVIER AREAS OF QPF, ONE FROM
SOUTHERN/SERN NEW ENGLAND UP THROUGH COASTAL MAINE AND ANOTHER MAX
FROM CENTRAL PA UP INTO NY STATE AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE FORMER WILL BE AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WHERE 1 TO 3 INCH AREAL
AVG AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A MARGINAL AND SLIGHT THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS.
THE SECOND AREA WILL BE FROM A DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION
ZONE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WHICH
WILL HAVE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO ICE/SLEET TO ALL SNOW. THIS
ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF THE EAST ON SUN, BEING REPLACED BY
ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND A SPRAWLING AREA OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE.

...NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN PLAINS...

A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE INTO NORTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON SAT AND ROUND THE TOP OF THE AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE.
THIS DAMPENED IMPULSE WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST ALONG NWRLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT AND FRIGID AIR MASS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ONSHORE FLOW
IN WA STATE AND DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

MUSHER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 14/00Z
 0.01 471620 476621 483619 489618 493620 498624 499625 499631
      500641 504647 506652 504660 502666 500674 497688 496693
      496699 497709 494714 491719 484728 476738 470743 465749
      454769 451775 446781 443787 439792 432803 425812 423819
      428817 436815 439815 441818 445824 446829 440830 434830
      428828 423824 421822 419823 416828 401845 394856 390861
      385866 380871 374874 363879 359879 357877 353874 353870
      351866 349862 349853 348849 347846 346838 349835 350832
      349829 347825 345824 340825 340827 338830 334828 327829
      323826 326822 329818 341816 344818 346816 349814 347811
      333811 327810 324811 323812 316826 317830 314830 310831
      307829 307822 308818 312813 318809 316805 313806 305807
      297807 289808 284807 276808 273813 268815 264815 261817
      257818 256815 256810 254810 250814 245826 242832 240835
      238837 234837 231836 230834 228828 227821 227813 224807
      223804 219804 215801 211788 208781 207772 209769 209766
      213759 217756 222754 229751 234749 245744 253735 267733
      283729 296723 318708 337695 382667 392660 404652 415645
      422642 426639 447628
 0.01 480336 482333 484331 486329 487327 489325 492324 494322
      496320 498318 499316 501314 502309 504307 505303 507299
      507304 521268 520267 522260 518249 515242 512237
      510220 509213 508209 511208 516210 520214 524216 527215
      529212 531210 532204 531197 530191 527185 521176 512169
      506165 499162 495159 497156 502153 501150 493140 486130
      482127 476126 473124 470123 471119 472113 476105 477099
      474092 471087 470080 467074 468069 470071 474076 475075
      475071 472066 471063 473059 471054 471047 467034 466028
      463023 460018 458015 454015 442019 439023 440029 436035
      436038 432039 428027 423016 418008 415003 410000 408998
      404997 402999 403002 408007 412012 416015 419020 429039
      432046 435050 439054 442058 443062 443067 440069 440072
      442077 447081 455090 457095 457099 455098 450093 447093
      445094 439094 434095 426091 430100 427103 422104 420105
      420107 423110 423113 419114 417116 419119 424119 429121
      434119 438119 445119 446121 449122 453122 455123 457121
      460122 460127 458128 455127 452132 451141 449150 445149
      442150 441154 446158 449163 450168 449173 449181 451185
      462184 466187 472189 478190 483189 485192 488193 490192
      490196 485199 483201 480200 474201 472200 470203 468207
      466208 462207 461203 459200 458202 457206 458212 459215
      456216 454218 456224 458226 458230 455233 455239 453248
      450254 448258 448260 451274 453288 460298 465310 463329
 0.01 481879 481869 481864 479859 472848 468845 461842 456840
      452840 452843 451846 447847 441845 434845 428845 438851
      439856 436859 429861 417858 413858 412862 407864 401867
      400869 403871 407876 409877 412877 419877 422875 426874
      438869 445868 452865 457862 459866 462872 464875 464879
      461886 461896 463903 470902 475888 479884 481879
 0.01 461119 460116 459113 457115 457118 458120 460120 461119
 0.01 415073 414068 416064 414061 410062 406055 400054 397056
      392064 391068 392068 396065 399065 400067 398071 397076
      399078 402077 403072 406073 408075 411073 413075 415073
 0.01 302759 300758 299759 297760 299762 301761 302759
 0.01 299762 297761 295761 294763 295764 297763 299762
 0.25 517262 517256 514250 509238 504228 501223 499217 497211
      496208 492207 481207 477208 474208 472211 467213 465216
      465222 470225 471230 469234 467240 468246 470253 471260
      469268 472297 473303 475310 478311 480310 484307 491299
      500296 504294 507289 512276 516268 517262
 0.25 494648 494640 491634 485628 478626 468625 457628 452631
      448634 439640 431645 414653 405659 395666 388672 384676
      378679 362688 347698 339704 335706 329709 321715 312721
      297730 288734 280738 271742 262748 264751 269753 272754
      275751 295744 304742 312738 319737 318742 316754 315757
      312762 305769 298775 294778 293782 295788 298790 306793
      311794 316794 321794 326792 344782 348779 349781 347783
      341788 337795 341795 344793 348790 349793 348796 350798
      354798 361797 362799 360809 363811 364815 363818 359820
      356823 358826 360827 365825 371832 375836 377841 382842
      386840 391837 395833 401827 407819 411812 423799 435782
      440774 447765 457750 467735 479717 485708 489698 492687
      495678 494648
 0.25 488144 488141 487139 485136 482134 479132 476132 473133
      471135 469137 470141 473141 475141 478141 480142 483145
      485146 487146 488144
 0.25 485161 484158 482155 481154 477153 475154 472154 470153
      467152 466154 467157 468160 471163 473165 476166 479167
      482165 484163 485161
 0.25 408669 406668 404669 403671 405672 406671 408669
 0.25 404673 403671 401673 400674 401674 403674 404673
 0.25 264792 262790 260792 256793 255794 252796 250797 247798
      244801 248802 250803 252802 255799 257798 259796 261795
      264792
 0.25 253806 252805 250805 250806 249808 249810 250810 251810
      252808 252807 253806
 0.50 514266 515259 513253 509243 504234 499227 494217 491213
      486211 477212 473215 470215 468218 473218 481222 485225
      487230 484233 481234 478232 474235 472241 473247 477257
      479267 483278 485283 488287 493289 497288 503288 505286
      514266
 0.50 492672 488644 487637 483632 479629 474628 464630 454634
      444640 434646 429654 422662 415670 406677 397684 386690
      384691 382688 380686 370690 361695 353701 336715 331718
      331721 337721 341716 359708 367702 376697 375702 372706
      368711 363714 359717 358721 355726 350728 340733 330739
      329748 329753 330758 332763 332768 321774 312779 310782
      311787 315790 321791 326788 329784 335777 342771 346770
      344774 340779 344778 348775 349769 352766 355766 362758
      367754 373753 385749 391749 394747 400744 403748 403751
      400753 397760 389767 385765 380765 376768 371766 367769
      368773 376773 374783 374788 375791 377795 376801 373807
      376812 380814 384817 386820 386825 385830 385834 387834
      391832 393826 394821 397816 403809 419794 427786 434778
      439770 446761 457745 469725 476716 482705 487696 490685
      491678 492672
 0.50 371804 370802 369801 367801 366802 366804 366807 367808
      369807 370806 371804 371804
 0.50 362774 360772 358771 358772 357773 356775 356777 357778
      359777 360776 361776 362774
 0.50 309733 308731 306731 304732 302732 301733 300734 300736
      301737 303736 305736 305735 306734 308733 309733
 1.00 502278 504272 503266 501258 497251 493246 487241 483240
      480241 479245 479249 482257 485266 489273 493278 500279
      502278
 1.00 500240 500237 499236 498234 496233 495233 494234 494236
      496238 496239 497240 499241 500240
 1.00 486668 485658 483650 481639 479636 476634 470633 462635
      449641 444645 439650 435656 432663 428670 425677 422680
      419680 415682 404689 394699 397699 396702 391707 388708
      386706 386704 381708 385709 380714 374717 362726 359732
      359735 362736 375736 380736 382738 385740 390738 397736
      404732 408731 412731 416731 420728 429720 433715 436715
      437721 439724 438728 435735 432740 430743 427745 416752
      412752 409754 404760 400766 397768 395771 386780 384781
      387782 394780 397778 399780 399789 400794 401796 405794
      407792 411786 417781 422778 427774 431769 435762 445751
      453742 467717 475705 479699 481693 482685 483678 486668
 1.00 392702 391701 389702 390703 391702 392702
 1.50 496267 497263 496259 495256 493253 490250 489249 486248
      484250 484255 485258 486261 487264 490267 493269 496267
 1.50 478648 477641 473637 461638 457640 450644 442652 439657
      441667 439674 436680 432692 427703 421704 415705 410716
      410721 412724 416724 425717 433708 442699 445695 448689
      453688 452694 455695 460691 461688 459684 455683 457681
      458678 460676 462678 464679 468678 472675 476671 477667
      477661 478648
 1.50 437748 436746 434747 433748 431749 429750 428751 427753
      427755 427758 427760 429761 430760 430759 432757 432756
      433755 434754 435753 436751 437748
 1.50 417766 417764 417763 416762 415760 414759 413758 412757
      411758 410758 409760 408761 408763 408764 408766 407768
      407771 408773 409774 411774 412773 413772 414771 416770
      416769 417767 417766
 1.50 398707 397707 396707 394708 393708 394710 395710 396710
      398709 398707
 1.50 394710 392710 391711 389711 388712 389714 391713 393712
      394710
 1.50 387714 386714 384715 382715 383718 384717 385717 386716
      387714
 2.00 472648 471643 469641 463641 458641 454646 451652 448656
      446662 445668 443676 440682 435693 437697 440695 444691
      450681 458671 462668 468669 471668 469661 472648
 2.00 421709 421708 419708 417709 417710 416711 415712 414714
      414715 414717 415718 416717 416716 417714 418714 419712
      420711 421710 421709
 3.00 457657 457655 455654 455656 454658 453661 452664 453665
      454663 454662 456660 456659 457657
 3.00 450674 450672 449671 448672 447673 447675 446677 446678
      446680 447680 448678 449677 449675 450674

$$





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