Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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842
FXUS04 KWBC 051838
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
138 PM EST MON DEC 05 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 06/0000 UTC THRU DEC 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

TN VALLEY---SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS---SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC

THE CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE THROUGH EAST TX AND ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TONIGHT---INTO THE TN VALLEY---SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
OVERALL---MODELS SHOW SIMILAR EVOLUTION WITH THIS MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS.  THE PRIMARY LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY---OH VALLEY LATER TUESDAY---WHILE SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH
THIS LOW MOVING OFFSHORE OF FAR SOUTHEAST VA/FAR NORTHEAST NC LATE
IN THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE A LOT OF QPF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AHEAD OF
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE TO MID LEVEL EVOLUTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM.  WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ABOVE
LISTED AREAS THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE STRONG SURFACE TO MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES AHEAD OF THESE
DYNAMICS---CONFIDENCE LOWERS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DETAILS.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATING A CONVECTIVE MAX ON THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD FROM IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PANHANDLE---ACROSS CENTRAL
TO SOUTH GA---SOUTHERN SC AND COASTAL NC WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE GREATEST.  FARTHER NORTHWEST---A SECOND MAX PRECIP AREA CLOSER
TO COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION AREA LIKELY FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE MID TO UPPER OH VALLEY---WITH A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTIES IN BETWEEN GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD IN QPF AMOUNTS AND
DETAILS.

CENTRAL TO EASTERN ND INTO NORTHERN MN---FAR NORTHWEST WI

THE HEIGHT FALLS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY INTO A CLOSED LOW TONIGHT OVER EASTERN
ND/NORTHWEST MN.  AN INCREASINGLY WELL DEFINED COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIP BAND LIKELY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THIS CLOSING OFF MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW---SUPPORTING HEAVY SNOW
POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN ND---NORTHERN MN AND AS FAR TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS FAR NORTHWEST WI.  THERE IS GOOD MASS FIELD AND
SUBSEQUENTLY FAIRLY GOOD QPF AGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST
MODELS---LEADING TO AN ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  SEE THE
LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER DETAILS ACROSS THESE
AREAS

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES

ADDITIONAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN NORTH CENTRAL U.S. UPPER
TROF DAY 1---PUSHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN.  PW VALUES AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS---LIMITING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THESE
AREAS.  MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE STRONGEST ONSHORE WESTERLY FLOW
AND GREATEST PRECIP TOTALS ARE FOR FAR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO
WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST OREGON FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD. HERE
AREAL AVERAGE .25-.50" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE---ALONG WITH HIGH
ELEVATION HEAVY SNOWS.  ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES---WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS
EXPECTED.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 542928 542916 541907 537891 528867 523853 517842 516840
      513840 508840 504843 500846 485849 475855 472859 467860
      461860 457859 449860 445863 444868 447874 449877 451884
      455887 456889 454891 453893 449897 446904 446909 444911
      440915 436918 433923 430930 431933 433936 432938 431941
      433944 437947 443948 450948 454950 455959 454966 452972
      452978 453981 455989 458993 461005 462012 465016 467024
      467033 470041 475042 479042 484040 492033 497030 502028
      512023 516020 516011 513999 514993 516990 518987 521986
      525984 529979 534969 538957 541941 541932 542928
 0.01 497252 499239 497234 494229 492227 488221 492220 494218
      494212 493209 490204 488202 483196 480188 476179 475177
      477174 479171 478162 473153 470146 467145 465143 465140
      464131 460123 458119 460110 461105 462098 460094 457091
      455091 453093 450092 441090 439088 436090 433098 429101
      421105 415106 413103 413100 415078 414069 416062 411056
      408054 404053 400053 397057 394060 388060 384060 384065
      386067 386074 395085 399080 402081 404084 406096 401105
      387113 383120 383122 386121 390116 393114 397117 402123
      406121 409122 411124 414127 410131 408133 405135 403134
      398139 394146 394154 396162 397166 400171 403180 408199
      410216 411220 409226 402228 401231 399231 395231 391234
      390240 393247 399253 414255 427253 445253 460249 474247
      478246 481248 487252 495254 497252
 0.01 493137 492134 491132 488130 486128 483125 482124 478124
      478127 478130 479133 482133 486134 487136 490138 493137
 0.01 467205 468202 467200 466199 465197 465196 464194 462196
      462198 462201 463203 464206 466206 467205
 0.01 473111 473108 472106 471105 470105 468103 468102 468103
      468105 468107 468108 469110 471111 473111 473111
 0.01 471095 471093 469092 467092 467093 469095 470096 471095
 0.01 455685 452678 451671 450667 448663 444659 439656 434652
      429648 424647 419652 416655 413656 406660 403664 401671
      403676 408681 412685 418690 422692 435694 442694 448692
      453689 455685
 0.01 456720 455712 452708 451710 448714 445717 442721 438723
      437727 439729 443731 448729 451726 454723 456720
 0.01 448746 448741 447739 444737 442737 440738 437741 435741
      434744 436746 438748 440748 441750 445751 447749 448746
 0.01 451080 450078 448075 447072 445070 443069 440069 436069
      434071 434073 436074 438072 441072 444075 446077 448080
      449080 451080
 0.01 443130 441123 438124 435124 432124 430125 425129 423131
      422136 423143 424150 427153 431152 432142 432138 434136
      436134 438136 440134 441132 443130
 0.01 221865 224869 230869 237868 241866 246865 248864 249866
      248872 248879 249889 253897 258903 261905 266905 270904
      275901 284906 288908 294908 302904 312904 314905 315907
      313913 312917 311922 310927 311930 312945 316955 323962
      328963 332962 336961 339958 345952 350945 355938 361930
      366921 371910 375903 384889 393874 398863 401859 405856
      419843 423837 430831 433829 435824 437813 439800 440791
      440790 438782 436775 435770 433766 422749 418744 412737
      406728 401717 391699 384693 377689 371684 365682 355680
      350678 345678 339687 334693 326697 321705 315721 296756
      292763 288771 279784 271791 264798 251810 238822 233826
      230828 229834 219851
 0.01 379080 380074 378071 376067 375066 370061 368058 370055
      368052 364051 361052 355055 352062 356067 358069 360069
      368066 371068 372073 374080 379080
 0.01 333184 334182 334180 334178 333175 331173 329172 328171
      326171 324171 324172 325174 325176 325177 326178 327179
      328180 330181 330182 332182 333184 333184
 0.25 527923 527909 526899 523892 521886 515882 509879 501880
      494881 488883 487890 482894 477898 472904 466915 463923
      462934 468947 464966 464976 466984 473998 476003 481007
      484009 488009 491007 493003 496999 499993 502983 505977
      512967 515958 518952 520947 520942 523937 526929 527923
 0.25 499916 499914 499911 498909 497907 495906 494909 495911
      495914 495916 495919 495921 495922 495921 496919 497918
      499917 499916
 0.25 449242 449237 447235 446233 447229 450224 450220 449217
      441215 437216 431214 426215 422219 420221 421226 423228
      422231 417232 411233 407235 404241 405243 407245 415247
      421248 432247 438246 441244 449242
 0.25 456179 456178 456177 455174 455173 454171 453170 452168
      450167 449168 448170 448172 449175 450178 452180 454181
      455181 456179
 0.25 423796 406761 399747 392733 381717 376711 370705 362702
      355701 349701 340703 335705 332708 329717 323734 312760
      295792 289794 283799 273809 261821 251832 247839 242843
      238849 240852 245852 254849 263846 277838 284833 288831
      290833 287840 287849 286860 286870 287876 289880 292883
      296884 312884 321885 326889 325901 327912 332918 329926
      329930 330934 333936 338936 344932 350927 356920 361913
      371898 385872 395857 405843 411838 415832 417826 418816
      419809 421803 423796
 0.50 501965 500956 499948 491946 481940 477935 476933 475937
      472943 472952 471961 469967 468972 469975 472982 475987
      478992 484992 487989 491984 494979 500967 501965
 0.50 478910 477907 475908 474910 474911 473912 473915 474916
      475915 475914 477912 477911 478910
 0.50 444220 441220 436219 432219 427220 426225 429228 430233
      432238 434235 436230 439225 442222 444220
 0.50 420240 419239 418237 417237 416238 415239 417240 419240
      420240
 0.50 411824 412819 410815 408812 404811 399814 397813 395810
      393803 394800 397799 401796 403790 403781 400773 397767
      394761 383740 376727 372723 367720 357716 346715 339716
      334719 329731 321752 311777 309782 308789 307801 309803
      308808 305815 301827 298838 297844 296851 294859 295868
      298874 305875 310874 315871 321870 326872 329878 331886
      331895 332900 333903 338906 339907 340911 339917 343917
      353907 361898 369891 376883 382870 389860 402841 407830
      411824
 0.50 278823 279819 277819 274821 272822 269824 267826 265828
      263829 262831 263833 266833 267832 271831 273830 275828
      277826 278823
 1.00 485972 485969 485967 484964 482964 481964 481965 479967
      479969 480972 481973 482974 482975 482974 484973 485972
 1.00 385783 386779 385773 381766 373758 368750 361740 357735
      353730 348727 343725 339727 335732 330742 326755 322767
      318778 316783 315786 317789 315803 311815 305838 303853
      302861 304865 307866 311864 315861 320858 326859 332862
      339863 343864 343867 342874 342878 344880 347877 357877
      357874 360875 365879 371877 374872 379862 382857 381850
      375839 370837 367839 366842 363846 359848 356843 354837
      354828 358823 357818 355812 353809 351804 345796 347789
      351783 355778 359778 360779 378784 383787 385783
 1.50 351753 352748 351743 348736 344733 340735 333747 329757
      325770 321781 316806 309831 307839 306845 307853 308858
      312859 314858 320854 327846 330841 332835 334822 336807
      336793 341780 345770 348759 351753
 2.00 343748 340746 338749 335754 333758 326775 320795 316817
      309835 308841 310845 313848 316847 322838 325829 332811
      333805 333798 332791 333787 338777 339773 340766 339760
      340755 343748

$$





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