Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 220900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
459 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 22/1200 UTC THRU MAY 25/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

...WESTERN U.S...

ONE LARGE SCALE SHORTWAVE HAD ROTATED THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S.
TROUGH...SPURRING CYCLOGENESIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE
MONTANA BORDER WITH CANADA...AND LIFTING NORTH OF THE BORDER. THIS
AREA DRAWS OUR ATTENTION...AS THE MODELS AGREE TO PLACING SOMEWHAT
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF FAR NORTHERN IDAHO
AND NORTHWEST MONTANA. THIS IS BACKED UP BY THE GEFS REFORECAST
DATA BASED ON ANALOG CASES. WITHIN THE DEEPLY SATURATED
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CYCLONE...WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES IN STRENGTH TODAY...WITH 700 MB WESTERLY FLOW
PEAKING AROUND 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. THE RESULTING
UPSLOPE HELPS TO EXPLAIN THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN WHAT IS
OTHERWISE NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEEP LAYER LIFT ON THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.

ANOTHER LARGE SCALE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST...BECOMING AN INFLUENCE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING AS IT REPRESENTS A WELL TIMED WAVE FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. FROM THE FRONT RANGE
WESTWARD...THE SOUTHWEST U.S. REMAINS DRY...AND THE GREAT BASIN /
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DIP WELL BELOW
0.50 INCHES IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLONE LIFTING OUT OF MONTANA.
STRONG MAY HEATING AND RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
STILL SUPPORT SHOWERS WITH BROAD AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OF
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IN SOME PARTS OF WY/UT AND ALONG THE
CASCADES AND COASTAL RANGES OF WA/OR/CA. WPC USED PRIMARILY OUR
DOWNSCALED IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE...WHICH GETS AT SOME OF THE
TOPOGRAPHICAL DETAILS USING THE HI-RESOLUTION MODELS. QPF WAS
INCREASED OVER NORTHERN ID/MT...WERE MOST EVIDENCE SUGGEST 1 TO 2
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.


...CENTRAL U.S...

IN A BROAD SENSE...THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH MAKES PROGRESS TOWARD
THE PLAINS TODAY...AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
FROM BORDER TO BORDER. MUCH OF THE DETAILED EVOLUTION IS LIKELY TO
DEPEND ON STORM SCALE PROCESSES / INTERACTIONS...BUT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS DO MATCH RELATIVELY WELL WITH THE MODEL QPFS...WHICH
THEMSELVES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FROM KANSAS NORTHWARD. THE
FORECAST FOR OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS CARRIES MORE UNCERTAINTY GIVEN CAP
STRENGTH AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CAPE TO CAUSE SOME ERRATIC
BEHAVIOR ONCE STORMS DO FORM. OUR APPROACH TO THIS SCENARIO WAS TO
MAINTAIN THE BEST CONTINUITY WE COULD...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
INHERITED FORECAST WAS IN A GOOD SPOT...WITH ONE REGIONAL QPF
MAXIMUM EXPECTED NEAR A SUBTLE WARM FRONT / ENHANCED GRADIENTS IN
NEBRASKA...AND ANOTHER REGIONAL MAXIMUM NEAR THE TAIL END OF THE
WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE RED RIVER IN OK/TX. THE GEFS
REFORECAST ANALOG DATA DEPICTS BOTH OF THESE REGIONAL MAXIMA. ONE
OF THE TRENDS WE EMBRACED WAS THE EXTENSION OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
UP INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THIS TREND
SHOWED UP IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...AND MAKES SENSE WITH
CONVECTION FIRING READILY AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT DROPS INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA...JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTLE WARM FRONT...WITH MEAN
FLOW THEN CARRYING AN MCS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SOME PROPAGATION /
REDEVELOPMENT SOUTHEASTWARD IS ALSO POSSIBLE INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. FARTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ALONG
THE TX/LA COAST THIS MORNING AS WEAK FORCING GRAZES THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE CAP...WITH THE QPF BEING HANDLED SIMILARLY BY THE
HRRR...GEM REGIONAL...AND NAM CONUS NEST...TO NAME A FEW. DRYLINE
CONVECTION...AND PERHAPS SOME INITIATION ALONG THE CAPROCK...IS
EXPECTED LATE TODAY...BUT WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES +9 TO +12...IT
MAY BE A LATE SHOW. THE GREATEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS...WHICH CAUSES US TO QUESTION THE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION THE WRF-ARW PLACES THERE...UNLESS CELLS CAN DEVELOP
FARTHER EAST GIVEN WEAKLY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW...STRONG
HEATING...AND RICH MOISTURE. THE WEAKLY FORCED ASPECT IS ONE
REASON THE QPF REMAINED CONSERVATIVE. WE DID SLOW DOWN THE
DEPICTION OF A RED RIVER/NORTH TEXAS MCS JUST SLIGHTLY GIVEN
TRENDS. EVEN HERE THE EXISTENCE OF AN MCS IS NOT A SURE
THING...BUT DOES HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF MODEL SUPPORT OVER THE PAST
FEW CYCLES.


...EASTERN U.S...

A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS OFFSHORE...TAKING ANY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS...HOWEVER...OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC...AND IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOMEWHAT...RESULTING IN A CLOSED CIRCULATION BY
MONDAY MORNING OVER VA/NC...AFTER A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPS
INTO THE BASE OF THE PRE-EXISTING TROUGH. DURING THIS PHASING AND
ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL CENTER...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL...ESPECIALLY OVER VA/NC...AND OVER PARTS OF WV/MD/DC EARLY IN
THE DAY. WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS ALREADY NEAR SATURATION...IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN. SOME
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND PARTS
OF ADJACENT WV AND NC...WHERE MORE INSOLATION IS POSSIBLE. WPC
BEGAN WITH A 40/40/20 BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST / WRF-NMM
/ ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. MODEL SPREAD WAS LESS THAN USUAL...LEADING
TO FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DAYS 2/3...


...NORTHWEST...

A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL TRANSITION INTO A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
WEST AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COMBINED WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND QPF...THUS WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS OF THESE SOLUTIONS.


...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST...WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS...RESULTING IN INCREASING INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES. TO START THE DAY MONDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRETCHING FROM MN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO CENTRAL
OK/TX. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY ALSO
SITUATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET. THUS SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT MOVING FROM MN
TO WI THROUGH THE DAY. STORM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT
SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HOWEVER DO EXPECT THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT TO BE A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE GIVEN THE STRONGER UPPER FORCING PUSHING IT ALONG.
THUS FOR NOW SEE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT BEING MORE MARGINAL IN
THIS REGION...AND THUS OPTED AGAINST A SLIGHT RISK FOR NOW.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR QPF ACROSS THIS
REGION...ALTHOUGH THINK THE ECMWF MAY BE TOO DRY GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SETUP.

FURTHER SOUTH...A PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS/SOUTHEAST NE IN AN
AREA OF LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. WPC
PREFERRED SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND 0Z HIGH RES ARW FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. SHOULD ALSO SEE AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NE/KS. MEAN LAYER WINDS SUGGEST A MOTION OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE MUCH AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...PROPAGATION OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST SEEMS PROBABLE. THIS PROPAGATION COULD BE RATHER SLOW AS
SUGGESTED BY CORFIDI VECTORS ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS ACTIVITY
MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA THAT SAW THE MORNING STORMS. THIS POTENTIAL
ONE TWO PUNCH...COMBINED WITH THE STRONG MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES
FORECAST...SUGGEST A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE TOO ANOMALOUS...BUT WITH VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 1.25" EXPECTED...STILL HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FLOOD THREAT IF
TRAINING OCCURS. OPTED TO ISSUE A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR DAY 2 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NE/EASTERN
KS/NORTHWEST MO AND SOUTHWEST IA TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT. THIS
AREA REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE OF THE 0Z ECMWF/GFS/UKMET
SOLUTIONS...WITH THIS COMPROMISE ALSO GENERALLY USED FOR QPF
ACROSS THIS REGION.

THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY ON DAY 2 IS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS
WHERE FORCING IS WEAKER LEADING TO LESS CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND EVOLUTION. THUS NOT SURPRISING THAT MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS ALSO BEEN INCONSISTENT. WPC QPF GENERALLY FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS
OF CONTINUITY AND THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. STILL SEEMS TO
BE A SIGNAL FOR A POTENTIAL MCS TRACKING ALONG THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AT SOME POINT DURING DAY 2...BUT EXACTLY WHEN IS UNCERTAIN.
AS COULD HAVE CONVECTION ONGOING MONDAY MORNING...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT ALSO LIKELY DURING THE DAY ANYWHERE ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT/DRY LINE. MOISTURE PARAMETERS SUGGEST A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT WITH ANY CONVECTION...SO DO SEE A CONTINUED ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD RISK ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS ON DAY 2 IF WHERE
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

THE FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON DAY 3...WITH ONLY THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF IT CLEARING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE LOW FORMATION IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
KS/NE. EXPECT CONVECTIVE INITIATION NEAR THIS LIFTING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER NORTHWARD
INTO NE AND IA. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. A SLOWER MOVING BOUNDARY WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
BACKBUILDING INTO THE BOUNDARY AND A LONGER DURATION OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. ALSO CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST A PERIOD WHEN CONVECTION
MAY TRY TO PROPAGATE BACK SOUTH INTO THE FRONT OR EASTWARD
PARALLEL TO IT. QPF FROM RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF/UKMET ARE ALSO
INDICATIVE OF SOME TRAINING/BACKBUILDING IN THE MODEL. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AGAIN FORECAST AROUND OR ABOVE 1.25" AND
STRONG MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION...ANY TRAINING/BACKBUILDING
WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THUS WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE AND IA...WHERE THIS
POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER/MID MS
VALLEY. ALTHOUGH WITH WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING...CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTIONS IS LESS CLEAR...AND THUS WPC QPF STAYED
CONSERVATIVE...FOLLOWING SOMETHING CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
COMPROMISE.

...MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

UPDATE COMING SOON

BURKE/CHENARD





24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 459624 463629 463632 463638 461644 459648 456652 453655
      452661 445681 440691 435699 423715 416720 410721 406720
      404717 402710 397703 395695 395689 398679 407662 413654
      418647 427641 433633
 0.01 554144 553133 551125 549118 545114 544106 539103 533102
      526102 517107 513105 509100 505096 501093 496089 488087
      482085 475085 471088 467092 466100 463102 462099 453093
      450094 448097 445096 442098 438098 435094 426086 423084
      425080 429075 430070 428068 426068 422069 418072 414076
      411081 408086 403100 400114 395124 394132 390139 388147
      389151 392154 397151 402147 408136 416128 416137 417145
      416155 417162 420166 423173 424181 423189 427190 429189
      432183 434181 435178 436172 438168 440166 443169 440176
      439181 439185 440188 442188 445183 445179 447175 448172
      450172 452178 453184 455186 458185 463181 464179 465174
      467170 470171 472178 475184 481188 487190 492194 491198
      489200 485202 480205 474206 466210 456213 431216 428216
      425217 422214 423212 422205 420204 418201 418194 415193
      413195 406205 402208 399206 392203 387199 379192 372187
      369187 370190 379199 389206 397213 403217 403221 401223
      395224 390227 391232 398235 404237 412239 419249 423253
      430255 439248 450247 455247 459244 467245 471246 475246
      478244 481239 480233 474231 470233 464234 465229 468226
      473223 478222 483222 490223 492225 493229 496234 498236
      500233 503234 509236 514230 515220 514213 516209 519210
      525212 528212 531211 534205 538201 544190
 0.01 510011 509002 510993 511984 511974 510957 509949 506942
      503937 501927 500917 499909 498895 494891 490893 459927
      441942 433947 423951 410955 404956 399958 379967 375969
      370970 363971 357970 352966 348964 340963 335962 332963
      330961 325956 320947 307929 301919 296910 291898 285889
      273868 270865 268863 264863 263869 265878 267891 268898
      267904 261912 260919 261925 263932 266939 271948 279956
      283958 287962 290968 292972 294973 298973 304971 308969
      310964 311957 313955 315958 319962 323969 318980 316986
      313991 306991 301989 295986 290982 282975 277974 273976
      273984 275989 278994 278003 278010 284010 289008 296008
      310009 316012 318014 319019 322023 328026 342028 354028
      361029 368027 379024 384023 390021 395020 398023 405024
      409025 412028 412034 411042 414047 416049 419049 427045
      447034 464023 466026 471027 476030 483030 494026 503020
      507015 510011
 0.01 478668 477661 474658 471657 468660 465667 460675 456682
      452690 447697 441704 431717 421729 422732 420735 419738
      417741 414744 408747 403748 399748 395747 384748 381746
      382741 387724 388719 389715 389710 389704 385696 379690
      375689 369689 362690 355695 349700 339712 329724 323733
      321741 311752 306758 301765 297771 295777 303774 309773
      308780 312782 316781 319781 322784 327789 331796 334799
      338801 349799 353799 356802 359803 361807 364811 364817
      353830 351834 351838 354840 359839 361843 365842 368838
      373838 380836 388832 394828 400821 405816 410809 421795
      425789 427778 430770 435763 445749 448740 452733 460717
      473685 477675 478668
 0.01 481117 481115 480115 479112 478112 476110 475111 474112
      473113 472113 471115 471118 472119 474118 475118 477118
      479118 480119 481117
 0.01 458172 458170 457168 455168 453169 455171 455172 456173
      458172
 0.01 466055 466049 462045 466042 467038 465035 463035 460037
      453046 448056 443065 438071 446077 449074 451072 453073
      455071 457066 459063 461062 464060 466055
 0.01 440127 440120 436117 432119 430123 428130 428137 427144
      428149 430151 433150 435145 436138 438134 438129 440127
 0.01 410068 409066 408065 408066 407067 406068 405069 404070
      404072 403074 404075 405074 406073 407072 408070 410068
      410068
 0.01 288812 286807 283804 276797 272795 269791 263790 260791
      256794 254796 251797 249794 245797 244801 248804 251807
      256809 263808 269806 278810 282813 286815 288812
 0.01 269831 267825 263821 259817 255815 253814 249814 246818
      247825 249831 251835 255838 262839 266837 268833 269831
 0.25 543154 544144 543137 542128 540121 537119 534119 530120
      520124 510127 503124 498123 495126 493128 490127 483126
      476125 470126 469130 469140 473143 471160 479169 482170
      484173 488177 492181 496186 498191 503195 522189 524187
      527186 532184 536180 538175 542164 543154
 0.25 488962 487957 486953 481949 477948 473949 467951 444964
      438966 430968 424969 416970 403974 397979 394984 390990
      389995 390999 392007 393012 395014 404015 410018 416020
      419023 419029 417038 418041 420040 425035 430032 440023
      445019 451017 464011 474004 480999 482992 483988 482983
      484974 486968 488962
 0.25 446651 443646 439643 434645 430649 425653 420658 414668
      409679 407686 408691 416698 421697 427693 431689 435684
      440673 444661 446651
 0.25 403781 400777 397774 391766 388763 384761 375760 368757
      364756 361758 356762 351764 343768 339778 338782 339784
      342781 347778 359777 368779 372782 373788 369789 366793
      366799 369799 372797 381798 379803 379809 383813 388811
      395805 400797 402792 402785 403781
 0.25 380721 379713 378707 372703 366703 361706 357713 352720
      348724 344726 337730 333737 332743 330747 325754 322757
      317758 316763 318770 321772 326773 331770 334767 339762
      344759 347756 354751 361747 368741 374734 378727 380721
 0.25 380006 381999 380994 376993 371994 365998 362001 358001
      355998 354995 352985 349976 347973 344971 339970 335971
      332973 330978 327985 326991 327997 328007 326011 326016
      329019 333020 338021 341022 346023 349021 355016 364015
      372012 377010 380006
 0.25 294952 294947 292943 289937 285932 281926 277920 273914
      271916 271921 272929 274937 275941 277944 283947 290952
      294952
 0.50 539156 541143 540137 537132 533130 529130 520134 512138
      503141 498140 494137 490133 486129 480128 474128 472128
      471131 470138 473141 478143 480144 481147 480152 476156
      476159 478162 482164 486168 488172 494174 501183 506182
      509183 513184 515181 515177 519172 523173 527176 530177
      532176 537168 539156
 0.50 477969 478959 477957 474956 469957 464959 443970 433975
      426975 421977 412984 410979 410977 407976 402979 398984
      396988 398994 402998 399003 398006 400009 405012 411014
      418014 421014 423017 423027 425029 428028 432024 439016
      448010 458003 462000 465994 471984 476977 477969
 0.50 437663 435658 428660 423665 420670 419676 418683 420687
      422689 426688 430685 434679 436673 437666 437663
 0.50 374722 374715 371711 367711 364715 359720 353728 347734
      343736 340739 342742 344740 348741 353740 358741 367737
      372730 374722
 0.50 376771 376769 374767 373765 372764 371763 370763 368763
      368764 368766 369768 369769 370770 371771 372772 373773
      375773 376771
 0.50 351004 349998 349987 346980 341976 337975 334978 332981
      332986 333995 333000 335005 336013 339015 343017 347015
      349012 351004
 0.50 338751 338750 337749 336749 335749 334750 333752 333753
      332754 333755 335755 336754 337753 338752 338751
 1.00 535158 535152 532147 530146 527148 524152 522157 521160
      524166 527168 530171 532168 534160 535158
 1.00 495151 495145 493143 489135 487132 483131 476132 473135
      472138 474140 479140 482142 483146 485156 488163 492163
      492158 491152 495151
 1.00 469969 466967 463966 457969 451974 445979 439985 434991
      431990 428987 426984 422985 413998 410002 411003 415004
      418002 425999 429998 429002 429006 433007 439002 445999
      451994 457988 462982 467975 469969
 1.00 343987 343984 342984 341982 340982 339984 339986 341988
      342988 343987
 1.50 492147 490145 488144 489142 489137 487136 484134 481134
      479135 480137 482139 485141 486144 487146 489148 492147
 1.50 478137 477135 476135 474136 475138 477137 478137
 1.50 461974 459973 456974 454975 452977 450979 448981 447984
      446988 446991 448990 450988 452986 454983 456981 457979
      459976 461974
 1.50 489157 489156 488157 488158 489157

24HR QP VT 24/12Z
 0.01 555061 554055 555047 555030 556011 553998 549985 548980
      547977 549974 553964 553959 552954 549928 544906 539898
      533892 530888 527886 525888 522889 519886 519881 517876
      514874 513869 515864 518859 520854 521848 521843 520840
      518835 515831 512829 506830 500835 495843 493847 489850
      486852 480853 476852 471852 469854 467858 464870 462876
      459880 446890 430898 418902 413902 408904 399905 394907
      389908 381910 372914 364918 361921 358926 357930 355934
      352932 348927 341923 336923 332925 327926 324925 319917
      313910 310907 307908 298913 294915 286916 283918 282922
      281930 278933 275952 278960 281971 290986 291992 291998
      293008 294012 293015 291014 280013 271010 263006 254001
      244996 241994 236994 232997 230001 231005 235008 242012
      258022 266026 269028 274029 284031 292034 314033 324033
      328031 331029 338021 340015 344013 351009 355007 361005
      378002 387001 390002 392004 398998 404993 412988 420984
      438976 447974 456972 477968 487967 489966 494966 500966
      502966 504970 506973 511974 518978 519985 518994 516999
      514002 511005 508009 503016 497023 486037 475051 466075
      462085 460091 458093 457090 456084 454081 451080 451086
      450093 445094 440093 437090 430093 422095 414093 410094
      405096 403102 403109 404115 405117 408118 413118 417121
      417128 414132 411136 408139 403139 397138 393139 391142
      388155 387159 384164 381166 378169 362177 361180 361185
      367191 381203 391207 397215 400218 400222 398223 393222
      389223 387225 387228 390233 399238 402241 405242 405245
      406250 409254 423258 426259 430258 434255 438254 444255
      447254 452255 454254 463251 467250 465245 461243 458243
      458241 461239 465238 470239 478240
 0.01 478240 482230 484227 489227 494228 496231 502238 504239
      507236 512231 517206 517199 520194 522181 525171 526166
      528161 533153 538151 542141 543135 545130 551110 553080
      554068 555061
 0.01 482196 481192 480189 477184 475177 472171 467168 462166
      459165 457168 456172 455174 454176 452178 450176 448172
      445165 440161 435158 434152 435142 436136 440129 442127
      441122 439120 436120 433120 431123 426137 425145 425150
      426153 432164 434169 435177 438179 441178 446176 450180
      451188 449205 451211 453214 456215 467214 471211 476207
      480202 482196
 0.01 479067 479064 479062 479059 479057 479054 478053 476054
      476056 476059 474061 474064 474066 472068 474071 475071
      477069 479067
 0.01 442691 441683 439676 433667 426661 424659 424654 421651
      401661 381672 373679 367685 355701 349711 346716 347721
      347725 345729 342741 339744 336749 334754 333759 334774
      337789 337795 339795 340792 345783 348779 352782 360787
      367794 365805 366812 369817 379817 384816 390813 398807
      404801 407796 409791 412786 414780 419771 422761 424755
      428751 433741 436730 440705 442691
 0.01 421169 421164 417163 412162 409160 407163 406168 405170
      402176 398180 395184 395186 398189 399191 403192 406193
      408192 413186 415182 419175 420171 421169
 0.01 421039 421033 420031 416029 416027 411021 408014 404012
      399016 398024 395031 392038 392046 394046 394049 391049
      387049 386052 387060 387063 391064 395064 398066 396073
      400076 405070 409067 413061 418046 419041 421039
 0.01 345173 344171 342168 339167 338165 334164 331163 327163
      327164 328167 330169 333170 337171 339172 342174 345173
 0.01 313003 312000 311000 309999 309998 308997 306998 306000
      308002 309002 311004 313003
 0.01 270818 270812 268808 267802 265800 262799 261797 259793
      256785 246770 242767 239767 232772 228779 227782 228789
      229801 231810 233820 236830 238836 240839 244839 246837
      250828 253820 254815 254810 257810 260813 262817 265818
      270818
 0.25 540003 539995 536989 533986 530986 528988 526996 525005
      523023 522031 522038 516048 513053 512058 513058 521049
      528039 531034 533026 533021 535019 537013 540003
 0.25 514111 513077 510071 506069 502072 499075 495082 493087
      491093 489101 490109 490118 486118 481115 474115 469113
      467115 467120 466124 464129 464133 465140 468145 472151
      474155 479167 482173 485174 487171 490171 494169 499168
      503165 503150 503133 505124 509121 514111
 0.25 507854 506851 504854 500862 496869 494871 490871 488868
      485865 481865 481870 481874 480877 478880 475882 468885
      464886 463893 460898 452899 447900 445902 443909 440919
      435925 432926 428926 421924 413923 405925 399927 395927
      393930 387935 380939 370949 363952 354953 348951 340948
      327941 321938 312935 304933 298936 293941 291949 290968
      292977 294980 297983 304985 308985 310987 316993 319995
      323996 335990 346979 353976 362978 383992 401989 412981
      424973 436968 452963 464956 476947 486939 495924 498917
      500909 500898 499893 501890 503884 503878 504870 507854
 0.25 417225 417222 417220 417219 416217 415217 414216 413217
      413219 412221 411222 410223 410225 409227 410229 411230
      411231 412231 413230 414229 415227 416226 417225
 0.25 422140 422138 422137 421138 420140 421141 422140
 0.25 400718 397713 393711 388711 382713 378715 372717 367720
      364724 358732 358738 361742 364744 369745 378748 383747
      386743 392736 394730 396726 400718
 0.25 394775 394771 392769 389767 387767 383767 382769 380771
      379773 380775 382777 384778 387779 390779 392778 394775
 0.25 380183 379182 377182 376182 377183 379184 380183
 0.50 498151 499146 498143 495138 491133 486134 479132 476132
      473133 472136 472139 476144 479148 484152 489150 496152
      498151
 0.50 485166 485164 485162 484161 484158 484157 483158 482161
      483163 484166 484167 485166
 0.50 490914 488904 484903 480904 474900 470899 467902 460908
      455911 451909 448913 446921 445927 442930 439938 437940
      433940 426937 419933 412931 404933 398936 384944 378947
      373954 367960 365964 366968 377979 383986 389985 399984
      405982 413977 419973 424968 430962 435955 439955 443957
      450957 458954 465950 471945 477940 481934 487924 490919
      490914
 0.50 388726 388722 386719 383719 378721 374723 371726 369730
      369733 370736 373738 376740 382739 384736 386731 388728
      388726
 0.50 348963 342954 337950 330951 325954 321954 318947 314943
      308943 305947 303952 304958 306960 306964 310963 325964
      330974 337974 342971 346967 348963
 0.50 328980 324977 319978 315977 314975 310977 309973 306972
      305974 301975 305976 308976 310977 314978 315979 321983
      325984 328980
 1.00 416966 410958 411953 411945 410942 408941 403944 395947
      390950 387954 383956 377958 375962 379965 382967 385972
      388975 391972 403971 408969 412971 416966
 1.50 400963 400961 401959 400957 400956 398955 397954 396954
      395955 393956 391959 391961 389963 391963 393964 395965
      396965 396966 397965 398965 400964 400963

24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 542790 538781 536778 532781 527783 523785 520785 518783
      520777 522773 523766 522757 523751 523742 524736 524720
      524714 523708 518711 516713 500723 472743 457754 448760
      441769 428782 425785 426790 430800 435809 435814 432818
      426825 420827 415828 404826 403832 401834 393840 376848
      369853 367856 367859 365866 366882 366886 362885 358883
      353883 344887 342891 340897 339902 335905 325906 314907
      308907 304905 302903 298903 291908 288912 282932 283939
      285945 285959 286964 289966 299971 312971 317971 320971
      322974 323985 318987 315987 314990 312994 311000 311004
      308008 302013 300019 314024 318024 323023 329016 331015
      334015 341015 354016 369003 372001 376999 384994 387999
      390002 394005 391011 390015 386018 383021 382024 389029
      392032 397033 397046 399050 397052 393055 394058 401066
      399071 402074 404074 405072 407066 411055 422056 427056
      428060 426070 425081 422085 418085 413087 410091 403097
      393107 379118 375127 377129 383127 390123 394120 396126
      396131 399134 396135 392132 388133 382137 381151 372164
      371170 369175 365178 361181 359183 361187 364190 365193
      363194 357187 353185 348186 347187 347191 349194 357203
      361206 365205 369203 372203 373205 376215 379218 383215
      389213 394213 397216 401220 406221 406223 403224 398223
      393221 390219 387220 386227 385232 387237 390241 405240
      410240 415238 420237 423236 424234 424227 428224 433225
      436224 440219 440215 436204 435201 438200 441200 447192
      451188 452183 448182 443181 441184 436191 431192 430187
      426182 425177 425174 428173 432172 432168 430163 426159
      425153 425144 426136 428131 432126 434127 434130 435136
      434153 441159 447165 448171 451175 455179 460180 463179
      463172 462166 462161 465161 468164 469170 471174 475177
      481184 483189 484194
 0.01 484194 480203 479208 481208 489206 492204 497206 501207
      503210 505219 507227 510222 515216 520210 524202 523197
      520194 517188 515185 515180 512173 508166 495155 492153
      490149 494140 498134 503132 508128 515124 527116 530113
      529100 528078 529053 529047 528044 524041 523035 519014
      511978 510968 508959 506949 502948 499944 494932 491924
      486927 476942 472947 469952 467956 463961 460959 459956
      454949 452947 451942 450933 452928 452922 452916 453911
      460906 465901 470898 475893 475902 475912 480912 482909
      486901 492896 506868 513852 521836 528823 535808 542790
 0.01 498675 496667 491662 489660 490657 488646 487638 485635
      480639 478644 471657 469663 467666 465662 461660 459660
      458656 454641 451634 449632 447631 443634 440641 435651
      432656 429661 421672 413682 396696 395712 392725 390738
      388744 384745 377745 369747 358754 356758 352762 346771
      344776 345780 348781 353777 357774 365767 372766 375767
      378767 390764 405763 414765 420766 426766 427767 429765
      431763 432759 438756 442752 457735 465725 472714 480706
      487697 491692 494685 498675
 0.01 491222 490216 484214 477212 474209 473204 468202 473206
      474209 473214 471216 471221 473219 478218 482217 485220
      489222 491222
 0.01 505032 506025 504019 500013 495008 493005 490005 490012
      488016 488022 486025 479039 470050 465055 462057 461062
      462067 465070 467073 467078 470078 473076 478072 483067
      486065 488060 496049 504034 505032
 0.01 480236 480234 479233 479231 478230 476229 476230 475232
      475235 476236 477236 479237 480236
 0.01 343171 341167 337167 336170 333170 331166 328166 330169
      332173 329172 325172 328174 330177 336179 338179 339176
      339173 341171 343171
 0.01 292812 285806 279803 277798 273795 269795 266792 261784
      257779 250771 244768 240767 237769 232774 229784 228793
      229805 231816 232821 234825 236828 240830 246830 250828
      256824 260821 265819 270818 273816 279809 284808 288810
      292812
 0.25 509825 509819 508813 504810 495817 490820 487824 484831
      481837 470845 467847 466851 467858 476867 479870 482869
      485864 487861 490859 495855 502844 506837 508831 509825
 0.25 502757 501754 500755 498758 495761 494763 492765 491767
      489770 487773 490773 491772 494769 496767 497765 500762
      502759 502757
 0.25 498175 498172 497171 496171 495172 494173 493176 495176
      497176 498175
 0.25 502795 498795 495798 492800 489803 486806 483811 484814
      486815 490813 493810 496807 499802 501798 502795
 0.25 487775 485776 487775 487775
 0.25 466036 467028 466022 463020 458020 456014 453012 451017
      452019 456020 458025 459030 462035 465037 466036
 0.25 457103 456102 456101 455098 453097 452098 452100 452102
      452105 452107 454107 456105 457103
 0.25 443732 444730 444727 442726 442725 440725 439725 437726
      436727 435727 434728 433730 432731 432732 432735 432737
      432740 433740 435741 437740 439739 440738 442736 442735
      443733 443732
 0.25 449075 448073 448070 447068 445068 443068 441068 440068
      439069 440070 441072 442072 443073 445074 446075 448076
      449075
 0.25 443096 443094 442091 440089 438089 437090 437093 436095
      436098 437100 437101 439101 440100 441100 443098 443096
 0.25 444969 443957 442952 440947 437941 434933 433928 434924
      436915 438906 439894 443887 442882 440878 435874 432881
      430886 428890 426894 427901 423907 415909 413911 410916
      410927 405931 402934 400938 397946 392947 389950 388954
      391961 393965 394972 397980 400986 403993 404999 405004
      405014 411017 411026 413030 419029 422028 427029 430028
      433026 431016 429005 427003 424002 425998 428992 430989
      434987 441978 444969
 0.25 412231 412228 411230 411231 412231
 0.25 409147 409146 407146 405146 404146 405148 406149 408148
      409147
 0.25 389204 388199 390192 389187 386184 381183 379187 376190
      373193 374198 377201 381203 387204 389204
 0.25 388874 388872 387870 386870 384871 382872 382873 381874
      380875 381876 381877 382877 384877 386877 388875 388874
 0.25 383934 383929 382925 382922 380918 378916 375916 373918
      371920 370923 368927 368932 370936 371938 373940 377940
      380939 382936 383934
 0.25 381897 383895 382893 381892 379891 378892 377893 377895
      378897 380897 381897 381898 381897
 0.25 381981 381977 378974 375974 371974 368975 366977 364980
      362983 363987 366989 368990 371991 375990 376988 378986
      380983 381981
 0.25 363952 362949 359947 356943 355940 354936 353928 350923
      347919 344918 340918 336921 332924 331921 328921 325922
      324924 324932 326947 329960 331967 335969 343960 349959
      355958 361956 363952
 0.25 252798 251794 249792 247790 245790 241790 239791 236794
      235796 234798 235802 237804 239804 243803 245803 248801
      250800 252798
 0.50 433964 434957 433953 428947 426938 426928 424923 422920
      418920 415923 414933 410938 406940 404943 402950 398958
      398968 398972 400977 403984 405992 409998 413000 416998
      419992 426977 433964
 1.00 424949 420938 417939 418945 418949 415947 412945 409944
      407947 406952 403957 403963 405977 406984 408988 411989
      414984 416978 416971 416966 418961 419954 423952 424949
 1.50 412977 413973 413968 413963 413959 412956 409954 406956
      406961 406966 407970 407975 407977 408982 412980 412977

$$





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