Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 020642
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 AM EDT MON MAY 02 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 02/1200 UTC THRU MAY 03/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST...

THE REMNANT CLOSED MID TO UPPER CIRCULATION FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IS PROGRESSING ALONG THE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD STREAM
THROUGH PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST AS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH ON
MON. A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMING OVER OH WILL STREAK THROUGH WRN PA BEFORE
REACHING UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WAVE WILL CAPITALIZE
ON THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION/CONTENT FOR AN AXIS OF
HEAVIER QPF. THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY CAPTURES THIS AXIS FROM
UPSTATE NY TO NRN/ERN MAINE AND WPC FOLLOWED SUIT WITH .50 TO 1
INCH QPF AMOUNTS BEFORE THE SYSTEM COMPLETELY EXITS BY TUES
MORNING.

...NWRN GULF COAST TO MID-ATL/SOUTHEAST...

A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ALIGNED NE TO SW FROM THE OH
VALLEY TO SERN TX WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS... AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST ATTEMPTS TO
HOLD ON DESPITE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS KNOCKING AT
ITS DOOR. INVOF AND OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A DEEP PLUME OF
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST TO
SETUP A POSSIBLE EXTENDED ZONE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A SLIGHT
OPPORTUNITY FOR EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS FROM ERN TN/SWRN VA/SERN KY AND
SRN WV TO SWRN LA/SERN TX ON MON. THIS IS THE GENERAL ZONE THAT
THE HI-RES ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DEPICT 1 TO 3 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS
WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER NUMBERS. WPC FOLLOWED A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY
WITH THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AS LIGHT STEERING COMPONENT AND SEMI
QUARTER RING OF FIRE EVOLVES.

OF IMMEDIATE AND SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE LATEST HRRR/ARW RUNS
THAT CONTINUE TO PINPOINT AN ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION EVOLVING
FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO SWRN LA. THIS IS WHERE A SMALL SCALE
DISTURBANCE GLIDING ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL INTERACT WITH A
VAGUE CONVERGENCE AXIS OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OF DEWPTS OF 70
DEG OR HIGHER DRIFTING NORTH OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. A
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MULTIPLE ZONES OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE TWO STATES AND WPC JUST ISSUED MPD 168.
THIS COMPLEX SHOULD PROPAGATE DOWNSTREAM BUT THE COMBINATION OF
EXTREMELY LOW FFG AND STALLED FRONTAL ZONE OVER SOUTH TX SUGGESTS
EVEN BACK-BUILDING POTENTIAL NEAR THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF SUCH A
FEATURE. THOUGH WPC QPF DOES NOT DEPICT IT AREAL-WISE... MESO
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF SERN TX/SWRN LA.

...PAC NW TO FOUR CORNERS REGION...

MAINLY LIGHT QPF IS ANTICIPATED ON MON ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TRAPPED AND IN LIMBO ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION... BASICALLY SOUTH OF A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN INSTABILITY AND DIURNAL ACTIVITY FROM NV INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
STATES. MEANWHILE A VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OUT OVER THE PAC
BEGINS TO PUSH TOWARD THE WEST COAST. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT LIGHT QPF
FROM INITIAL ONSHORE FLOW FROM NRN CA UP INTO WA/OR.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

MUSHER

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 474619 481626 486634 491642 496652 501661 505674 507678
      508685 508692 507696 504702 499704 495707 492711 491716
      488720 482726 467740 461746 458756 453777 446784 442794
      435811 434816 430819 425822 421818 419816 415815 406820
      402823 401828 399829 398825 399821 398818 396817 394819
      392822 391828 391835 390840 389846 393848 395842 398843
      404838 407843 411845 415853 416867 416872 413877 409878
      405881 401890 401901 398907 401908 403906 406905 408907
      410910 413909 417905 420900 423896 426894 432886 434883
      439882 441881 442885 437892 434897 433902 430906 427909
      418925 417928 421931 424931 429928 431922 431921 435920
      437918 440918 445915 448910 448906 445901 444897 446894
      450894 453901 454916 453921 450925 443930 436935 421945
      415951 408955 403956 399956 395956 396952 399948 398944
      395943 392944 389947 389955 389959 387960 383956 379961
      373961 375955 378947 379939 375936 373934 373930 374925
      376921 377916 376911 378906 380903 382898 380895 378895
      378891 380888 385888 388888 390884 391879 390872 388866
      387861 385855 383860 376875 371882 365892 363897 363900
      364903 362907 359910 353917 347923 341928 337931 333930
      332934 334936 333940 336941 332943 329943 330946 325947
      329949 325950 323953 324955 327957 329958 327960 323963
      321963 320966 321970 324972 325969 328965 330962 332965
      329975 326984 322996 319004 316014 312017 311016 312012
      312005 308007 305010 302013 298012 297009 294009 292009
      293011 294013 293019 296023 293021 291023 294027 295029
      293031 291028 288026 276026 268021 261015 257014 257020
      259029 263037 264042 262046 257045 253043 248037 243029
      238023 235019 233015 233009 234004 239002 244003 248004
      250003 249000 240000 235000 233997 233992 231987 235981
      262917 262903 267896 273892 280886 285879 288869 294849
      294846 292843 290841 288838 291836
 0.01 291836 294833 296829 292827 287827 271828 265825 263823
      266822 270822 266820 261820 257813 254810 254806 251806
      249809 247813 244817 240815 243808 246805 249802 252800
      255799 258796 262794 271793 280792 286791 291789 305782
      312778 319773 325768 330761 333754 338748 347736 352729
      356723 361716 365709 373695 390667 397657 398654 398651
      396644
 0.01 517832 517825 516821 514816 511812 509809 505808 499809
      496812 494816 490823 486846 487857 487864 486869 487897
      488901 490904 495909 503907 507900 509896 511891 513882
      515858 517832 517832
 0.01 496262 496257 495254 494252 492249 491246 490244 487241
      486241 486246 487249 488252 489255 490258 492261 494263
      496262
 0.01 500237 500229 498223 493218 489214 482213 477212 473216
      478219 485220 491223 494229 496235 497238 500237
 0.01 479249 479246 477244 472243 468241 470239 479241 481240
      482237 481231 478229 476229 473231 472228 474224 464229
      455225 451223 449220 449217 447215 443216 441214 438216
      436217 434215 431212 429209 426208 424205 423202 423198
      420195 419204 428216 424219 418217 415214 414209 412202
      404204 399197 397194 393195 388192 387189 389186 388182
      390179 392181 395182 396177 400168 403165 407163 410162
      408159 406155 409151 407147 402144 400139 398138 395141
      390140 387137 387132 389127 395124 398124 400128 404130
      407131 404122 401119 402117 408110 409105 408100 401106
      397097 397091 399087 400084 399079 401074 401069 398061
      397051 405055 409056 413055 415052 411052 407050 406046
      407041 410040 412042 414046 417048 433045 436040 442042
      453042 457040 462040 465039 466035 462035 459037 456036
      456032 459030 468031 473026 479022 483018 484012 478993
      489984 482980 468983 452989 449986 451981 446982 441982
      436987 430989 427991 419993 410994 405996 402998 401002
      402005 405004 408008 409010 406011 401011 397018 395020
      396024 398030 396036 395038 391037 387034 380031 377031
      375026 375021 373019 366018 363016 361018 363023 365025
      368028 371032 387039 392046 394049 393052 391052 388050
      386052 384055 378049 370048 363049 356055 348059 344057
      339056 330055 334058 337058 341059 343063 347063 350060
      354058 356058 359060 358067 360072 352068 350065 348068
      345072 341069 338071 336075 334082 338088 338095 341103
      340108 344116 343126 346130 348135 348141 351144 355144
      353142 354138 360139 364142 369143 371148 374151 373154
      370156 369153 369149 365148 359154 356149 354149 350155
      356162 360163 359167 357171 358176 357180 353183 355185
      359186 361188 365188 372194 378199 385205 391211 398217
      402219 408221 409223 412222 413223 411226 407229 402227
      399229 402236 405238 409240 415238 424236 427239 432240
      435244 435247 437249 446249 449248 455249 458249 463250
      472250 479249
 0.01 448239 448237 446237 444236 443236 441237 440239 442240
      443240 444239 446239 447239 448239
 0.01 384184 384182 384179 383177 385175 384173 382172 381174
      380176 380177 379178 378180 379182 379183 379185 380187
      382186 382185 384184
 0.01 392103 392101 391100 390099 389098 390095 391093 389092
      388093 387094 386095 385096 383096 382097 383098 385099
      386102 388104 389105 391105 391104 392103
 0.01 373177 374175 373174 371173 369173 369172 368170 367169
      367167 367166 365165 364166 364168 364171 363173 364174
      366174 367176 369178 371178 372178 373177
 0.01 377110 377103 374100 376096 376091 372087 372082 373076
      372073 369075 364075 363078 361078 360082 361084 366087
      370090 371094 366096 368101 372104 373107 372111 370116
      368117 370119 372123 372118 373113 377110
 0.01 379058 377056 377055 376053 374054 372053 371055 370055
      368055 366055 365056 366059 368059 370059 372059 373061
      375062 377060 379058
 0.01 376868 376866 375864 374866 373867 372869 371870 371871
      371873 372875 373873 375871 375870 376868
 0.01 366059 365056 363056 361058 363061 364060 366059
 0.01 356109 354106 352104 352102 352097 350095 348092 346092
      346096 345101 347103 348105 350109 352110 355111 356109
 0.01 323977 323975 323973 321971 320973 320975 319977 321979
      323977
 0.01 299819 298817 297815 295815 294816 292817 290817 289818
      289820 289822 291824 292822 294822 296821 298821 299819
 0.01 263803 261802 259802 257802 256803 258805 259804 261804
      263803
 0.25 465622 473633 481645 484650 486655 485658 484664 486667
      490672 492676 492681 491690 488698 484703 473710 466714
      462720 455732 449745 444757 441773 438780 435787 433789
      429790 427787 425782 427772 426767 426762 426753 425744
      423747 420745 418743 421740 424739 422737 417737 415740
      413745 411752 410756 410762 408768 404773 403780 397794
      394801 391808 385820 380832 378841 375848 372853 369857
      365863 363871 361876 357882 354888 350893 345898 343901
      344905 348906 348908 344910 339913 335918 331923 326927
      320930 319933 320936 321940 319943 314947 303954 294962
      291958 285958 279961 275958 271956 270954 272949 274940
      274933 272921 273914 277908 281904 285899 287891 292886
      297881 303878 307875 308867 311861 317858 322855 329852
      333848 335845 334840 334836 337832 333828 331826 330829
      327834 322837 319835 318832 310829 305823 307818 312815
      317815 320815 321812 320807 319804 307801 304799 304795
      307790 319782 325778 328773 342752 350742 358731 366721
      370716 372715 375716 378715 380712 385708 394701 401699
      407699 410701 411706 413713 416721 416726 418731 427728
      432711 430702 429694 431686 433679 438666 443659 444651
      445645 444641 445629
 0.25 426767 425765 424765 422764 420765 420766 419768 419771
      419773 419774 421775 423773 423772 424770 424769 426767
 0.25 379128 380126 379124 379123 378123 377123 375124 374125
      373127 373129 374132 376133 377132 378130 378129 379128
 0.25 375143 376141 376139 376137 376136 375136 374139 373141
      375143 375143
 0.25 367750 368748 367747 365747 363749 362751 364753 365752
      367751 367750
 0.25 367135 365133 364135 365136 367135 367135
 0.25 349762 348762 347762 346763 345765 344768 344770 346771
      347770 348769 348767 349765 349764 349762
 0.25 351822 351820 350819 350820 349822 351823 351822
 0.25 334789 333787 332787 331787 329789 329790 331792 332792
      332791 333790 334789
 0.25 336908 337906 335905 334906 333908 335910 336908
 0.25 309969 308967 306967 305968 305971 306972 308971 309969
 0.25 294807 293803 292801 290799 287797 284797 281797 279798
      276800 274802 273805 276807 278807 282808 284808 287809
      291809 294807
 0.25 289002 288000 286000 284001 283001 282002 281003 280004
      279005 280006 282007 284006 285006 286005 287004 287003
      289002
 0.25 274009 274007 273006 271005 270005 269005 267004 265004
      265005 265007 266009 267010 269011 271011 273010 274009
 0.25 268986 269982 268980 265978 264978 261979 259981 258984
      259986 260989 261992 264993 266991 267988 268986
 0.50 477686 477676 474669 469664 466658 464643 461636 459633
      456635 453641 451648 450655 447661 444667 442674 440682
      439689 439705 439713 440721 439727 438731 435733 434750
      433757 433765 432775 434778 435776 443749 445741 446733
      443725 443722 447720 450715 453709 457703 462700 468697
      472694 476690 477686
 0.50 401748 401735 399730 397732 393739 387745 384753 381755
      378755 375753 371755 364760 362765 363770 361774 358777
      352783 349785 345786 336800 328804 326806 324810 325814
      325820 329821 334819 341816 348813 352811 354806 356797
      360795 363798 362803 359808 354814 354825 353829 350833
      345839 340844 338852 335856 331858 328857 324857 318863
      314865 312869 313876 312881 309884 311895 311898 308901
      305900 304897 300888 293891 290894 288898 291907 290910
      287907 279910 277914 280918 285918 288920 289924 288929
      285938 282946 281949 281955 284956 288956 296954 304950
      311947 317942 317933 315929 315927 318926 323926 326924
      331919 328913 332905 336898 342892 345888 347885 350877
      355872 358869 360865 364858 369852 373843 376835 389803
      395785 397776 400767 401762 400757 401748
 0.50 375774 375771 375770 373772 373774 373776 373777 374776
      375774 375774
 0.50 351771 352769 351768 350769 349771 351771 351771
 0.50 321911 322909 321907 319906 317906 315906 313905 312907
      312909 313910 314911 315912 317913 319913 321911 321911
 0.50 310930 308930 306930 306933 307933 308931 310930
 1.00 388792 386780 383783 383786 381793 377794 373794 372799
      369802 366804 364807 365813 371808 371811 369815 367818
      362819 357820 357826 360834 356832 354842 346856 340870
      337872 334870 331868 328864 326861 322862 320865 318869
      320879 320885 319890 317894 318900 316903 321903 325905
      329904 331901 333896 334891 337889 343883 346876 351868
      356861 359854 362854 365851 368843 373836 376828 382811
      386801 388792
 1.00 346805 346803 345802 343803 342805 341805 341808 342808
      344808 345807 346807 346805
 1.00 334809 333808 331808 330809 331811 333809 334809
 1.00 327919 326917 323917 317919 313918 310919 305916 301926
      296928 296933 297935 297938 295939 291939 288943 290949
      296950 301949 303947 302944 303939 301934 300931 303929
      312922 317920 323922 327919
 1.00 312945 310945 312945 312945
 1.00 299912 299911 297911 296912 295912 294914 294916 295916
      296916 297915 298914 299912 299912
 1.00 295929 295926 294926 292926 292927 293929 294929 295929
 1.50 383802 383800 381802 378810 373816 369822 367830 365838
      366840 369838 373831 375823 378816 381809 383802
 1.50 365843 364841 363842 361843 360843 359844 358845 358846
      357848 358849 359848 361846 363845 365843 365843
 1.50 353861 354859 354857 353856 352857 351857 349859 348862
      347864 346866 346868 346871 347871 348869 349868 350867
      350866 351864 352864 353861 353861
 1.50 340882 340880 339879 339880 338880 337882 338884 340882
      340882
 1.50 331874 326871 323867 321870 323872 323878 323883 321890
      322898 323900 326902 329901 330898 329889 328883 327878
      328876 331874
 1.50 302941 302939 301937 301936 300937 300939 299940 297941
      297942 299943 299944 300943 301943 302941
 1.50 296947 297945 296944 294944 294943 292941 290943 290945
      290946 291947 292948 294948 296948 296947
 2.00 328900 329898 328896 327894 327891 326889 325888 324887
      323887 323889 324890 325892 325894 325896 325898 326898
      327900 328900 328900
 2.00 293945 292943 292945 292946 293945

$$




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