Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 240627
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
126 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 24/1200 UTC THRU DEC 25/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...MIDWEST/GT LAKES...

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO CONVERGE TOWARD SIMILAR HANDLING OF DVLPG
MID LEVEL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY
INTO THE SRN U.P. OF MI BY WED EVENING.  THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
WILL LEAD TO A RATHER TIGHT BUT IMPRESSIVE COMMA HEAD BAND THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DVLP ALONG AND WEST OF THE 85H/7H LOW TRACK ACRS
INDIANA INTO LOWER MI.  DVLPMENT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL AID
QPF AMOUNTS..ESPECIALLY ACRS LOWER MI WHERE A STRIPE OF 1 INCH
PLUS LIQUID AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED.  GIVEN SUCH SIMILAR MASS
HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM..WENT WITH A GENL CONSENSUS OF MODEL QPFS
HERE.   FOR DETAILS ON SNOW POTNL...SEE QPFHSD.

...NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE SE US...

DEEP LAYERED SLY FLOW PATRN AHEAD OF HI AMPLITUDE UPR TROF PUSHING
EWD FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW UNSEASONABLY DEEP
MSTR AND WARM TEMPS NWD AHEAD OF ASSOCD COLD FRONT LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD RAINS..SOME HEAVY ALONG WITH POTNL FOR EMBDD CONVECTION
AS FAR NORTH AS THE MID ATLC REGION.  MODELS SHOW STGEST JET WINDS
INCREASING TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPR TROF ON WED WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT THE SLOW LIFTING OUT PROCESS OF THE UPR TROF TOWARD THE
EAST COAST BY CHRISTMAS MRNG.  THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWS AND STG
MSTR FLUX GIVEN 50 KT PLUS 85H SLY JET..ALONG THE ENTIRE ERN
SEABOARD SHOULD LEAD TO RATHER WIDESPREAD MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.  ACRS THE SOUTHEAST...LEANED VERY CLOSE TO AN ENSEMBLE OF
LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE WHICH APPEAR TO BE HANDLING CONVECTIVE
TRENDS FAIRLY WELL AND SHIFT HEAVIEST RAINS ON WED TOWARD THE
BETTER INSTABILITY SETTING UP ALONG COASTAL FRONT FROM THE GA
COAST INTO ERN NC.   FARTHER N...PLACED HEAVIEST RAINS NEAR WARM
FRONTAL BNDRY WHICH SHOULD LIFT NWD TOWARD THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY WED EVENING..WHERE HIGHEST PWS OF BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75
INCHES WILL BE NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH THE BNDRY LEADING TO POTNL
HEAVY RAIN RATES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD GREATER THAN 1 INCH RAINS ACRS
MUCH OF THE ERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 2 INCHES ACRS SRN PORTIONS SWD INTO NRN NJ.   COULD SEE SOME
LOCALIZED TRAINING OF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES...ESPECIALLY OVER NJ WHERE FFG VALUES ARE
RATHER LOW.   GENLY TOOK A BLEND OF NON-EC SOLNS MOST AREAS AS THE
EC APPEARED TO QUICK IN THE SE WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINS...AND WAS A SLIGHTLY DRY OUTLIER ACRS NEW ENGLAND.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...

POTENT AND FAST MOVING H5 TROF SWINGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST..NORTHERN CA WED WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SEWD INTO THE
SRN GT BASIN BY CHRISTMAS MRNG.  DECENT HEIGHT FALLS..FRONTAL
LIFT...AND LEFT EXIT REGION DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT SOME MDT RAINS
ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF CA/OREGON...WITH MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE INTERIOR NW..NRN SIERRA AND EWD INTO THE WASATCH
BY THE END OF THE PD.  LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD CONTINUITY ALONG WITH
LATEST GFS/NAM AMOUNTS ACRS THIS REGION GIVEN FAIRLY GOOD RUN TO
RUN AGREEMENT.  FOR DETAILS ON WINTER WEATHER..SEE QPFHSD
DISCUSSION.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 485614 498635 503639 507645 512663 517674 523687 529700
      530709 532715 536731 538738 539748 543765 544771 543775
      540783 535794 530807 524818 517825 509833 505837 499838
      492839 487842 480847 477852 474857 472865 477875 474878
      475882 476885 472895 470900 467905 463903 461898 459890
      457882 456878 455875 453876 448880 415908 408915 404920
      401924 398932 396938 391943 385945 382945 380947 375946
      369945 366943 363943 361933 362929 361927 357923 355921
      355917 355909 354905 351904 347899 339889 336883 333877
      330874 325870 321867 315866 308866 304868 294872 281874
      275876 270880 261884 247881 241878 241872 238860 237856
      236854 236852 232850 230846 226843 226837 227831 227821
      227812 225809 226808 238801 245793 248788 250783 265767
      272761 279753 296735 303727 307722 313721 328718 334716
      340713 365707 369706 372703 378699 386689 408650 413643
      419638
 0.01 550034 551018 550011 550004 547992 546987 545982 540956
      541949 542944 547936 550926 550919 549913 547909 543909
      539909 536912 516912 507913 502913 499916 495916 492919
      489923 488930 489937 491942 496949 504969 503993 508000
      506003 502006 500008 495008 493010 493018 493023 494030
      497041 500052 503060 505064 508066 512064 515060 520053
      523050 525050 527052 530046 531039 532030 535027 538030
      541035 544038 548037 550034
 0.01 518265 515253 511241 509234 507229 500216 493206 488204
      482203 478204 472203 470202 470198 471193 472191 476187
      480186 489188 494189 499186 504184 508178 513167 518153
      518144 518137 513126 509117 503109 498103 497101 496097
      493079 490064 488058 485055 480052 477047 472041 468050
      468054 465057 463054 463050 460042 457039 453042 449047
      446052 442056 439060 436066 436071 439076 442080 444085
      442089 437090 431089 425086 423085 422089 423096 423101
      420103 412102 409099 407095 405094 403096 399100 390105
      386109 383113 376120 369129 370133 373138 380149 384154
      385157 385161 381164 380171 378176 374177 369179 361178
      352181 345187 343191 346197 348199 350197 353195 356195
      361194 365196 368199 370204 370207 368208 362208 361215
      361218 364219 369218 374217 378216 382217 381219 375221
      370226 368233 367238 368244 370250 374254 378257 383260
      388262 393266 395271 401278 408280 412279 422277 434273
      444270 451266 469261 477258 485251 487243 483239 482236
      482230 481226 483224 489225 492228 497239 503248 508259
      513267 516267 518265
 0.01 413073 412068 408068 403067 399069 396070 390070 381069
      378072 376075 376080 379083 384084 386081 389079 392080
      395083 397085 399081 401079 403081 404084 406079 407076
      410075 413073
 0.25 523770 523759 522749 520738 520727 516702 511679 509671
      504663 498652 491640 488637 483634 472633 461632 446634
      440638 433645 428651 426657 424662 422668 415681 409691
      402701 393709 369727 360734 352745 342753 337757 332759
      320765 314768 310772 306778 305782 307784 311786 314789
      310796 301802 300790 300788 297786 291789 281796 271802
      266804 260804 252806 247810 242816 241820 243823 252827
      249832 250837 250842 254847 256850 256853 258862 262866
      266868 274868 280866 308854 328840 333836 337835 341836
      347837 350837 353835 355829 357823 366815 371810 376806
      380804 385803 391799 400791 407782 414772 420768 423766
      427766 435765 437770 440777 437784 430797 424802 419808
      416813 413819 412822 413828 412837 406848 403853 397857
      389863 383866 381869 380872 383879 388884 392884 396883
      404882 416877 422874 427871 437866 442862 448858 466844
      472838 478833 489826 500819 507808 515797 520785 523770
 0.25 497146 496133 491126 485121 483123 481122 477122 474121
      470124 464132 464136 467140 466143 463144 456148 452149
      449146 444143 442139 440132 442129 449124 454115 459107
      461102 460094 432107 425113 422115 417114 411114 408110
      406108 404109 401112 394116 394121 397123 406120 418124
      428129 433123 435127 435131 431135 430139 429147 430151
      432154 434157 435160 434168 433174 431181 430188 430192
      427196 422197 419199 416203 415206 416209 419213 417218
      410216 408213 407207 400199 395196 388194 370185 361184
      358185 361188 366190 368192 375199 381206 386211 391214
      401220 404222 407224 405228 389228 386231 385236 388240
      392243 397252 401257 405260 415263 424263 433261 441259
      447256 454251 461245 463236 465229 467220 466218 462216
      457215 451215 449214 450209 454206 464192 467186 471182
      477174 483168 486163 487158 484155 481152 478147 479144
      481144 484149 487152 490152 497146
 0.25 471111 472108 472106 472103 470101 470100 468099 467100
      465099 464099 463101 463102 463104 463105 464107 466108
      467110 468111 469112 471111 471111
 0.25 452080 451078 450075 448073 447073 446072 445072 445073
      444075 444076 445077 446079 447080 448080 449082 451082
      452080
 0.25 419159 418156 413154 409156 406157 401157 398160 396166
      397171 402173 405175 409175 411171 413167 417165 419159
      419159
 0.50 512762 512752 511743 507728 505717 503706 500696 497689
      491677 490671 488663 483652 480646 476642 470640 466640
      460641 456643 449647 444651 438657 435663 429673 423682
      417691 407701 400709 391718 372736 365744 355753 346759
      338767 310804 293818 283824 273829 265836 262841 262849
      267853 269859 272862 276862 283860 295856 305852 314846
      319842 324838 326833 330829 339823 345819 349815 355810
      361807 380793 387785 396777 404770 412762 421753 427748
      435750 439745 444741 450732 452725 454720 458721 459731
      460741 459747 457762 455769 452775 445790 440804 437809
      434815 428824 422833 417843 409852 402862 399869 400874
      403876 409875 416872 422870 427867 435863 444856 460841
      479822 497807 504797 509786 511773 512762
 0.50 491139 489137 487136 484133 483132 479130 476131 474131
      473136 474139 477139 479139 482139 485140 488141 491139
 0.50 482163 482160 480158 476156 472154 469150 466149 462151
      465156 466159 469165 470170 472171 476169 479167 482163
 0.50 464181 466177 465173 463174 460174 458175 455177 453179
      452181 450184 448187 449190 452192 455191 458190 460188
      462186 463183 464181
 0.50 456226 458222 453219 445218 439219 432222 427225 422231
      415229 414226 412227 407232 404234 400233 396232 396237
      398244 403250 409254 418257 425256 431255 438253 444250
      448244 453240 454232 456226
 0.50 407217 404214 402209 400206 398203 395200 390197 384197
      382202 385207 388210 391212 396214 400216 404218 407217
 0.50 352831 352828 351827 349827 348829 348831 349833 350833
      351832 352831
 0.50 289806 285805 282807 278809 275811 271814 268818 268821
      274821 277819 281817 284814 288811 289807 289806
 1.00 463668 460662 455659 450662 446667 444671 439677 431684
      423694 415703 407712 404716 401723 393731 396745 396752
      393758 393762 394765 400763 409755 413751 416745 425737
      429734 434730 434723 437721 440720 445717 448712 450706
      452698 457687 461677 463668
 1.00 476810 476802 474796 471792 468791 464793 460797 455803
      449812 444820 433836 420851 414858 409866 411868 417866
      425862 440851 447844 454838 459830 465823 473816 476810
 1.00 446223 445221 443222 442222 441223 439224 438226 438228
      440227 441227 442226 444225 446223
 1.00 437245 438242 437238 434237 430237 426237 421237 417237
      413240 413244 416248 421250 426250 430249 434248 437245
 1.00 400213 399211 399210 397208 396205 394205 394204 392203
      391203 389203 388203 389204 389206 390207 391209 392209
      393210 395211 396212 397212 398213 400213 400213
 1.00 369779 366776 362775 357777 354779 349786 347781 346777
      352771 360765 365759 367755 363753 356757 350763 344770
      339777 331792 332797 337795 342790 345787 348786 348789
      347794 348799 356794 362789 367784 369779
 1.00 335815 335814 335813 333811 332812 330813 330814 328815
      327816 326817 325818 325819 324821 324823 325823 326822
      327822 329821 330820 330819 332818 333817 334816 335815
      335815
 1.00 326803 323803 322804 320806 317808 315809 312811 311813
      313814 317813 319811 320810 323808 325805 326803
 1.00 315832 315826 312826 307828 305825 303820 302818 299819
      292823 285828 278832 275835 274837 275840 283840 293837
      297839 299844 303845 307843 312837 315832
 1.50 431243 429242 427242 426242 426244 427245 429245 430245
      431244 431243
 1.50 426705 422703 419705 412713 409725 409732 407738 402747
      400752 400756 404753 407749 412741 415735 418731 422722
      425710 426705
 1.50 397210 396207 395207 395210 397210 397210

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