Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 031842
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
142 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 04/0000 UTC THRU MAR 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...

THIS WILL BE A WET PERIOD..BOTH IN TERMS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
THEN ACCUMULATING SNOWS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UP THRU
THE OH VALLEY..WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST SNOWS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.  A LEAD H5 S/WV NOW ENTERING THE
NORTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST IS PRECEDED BY A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN..WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVIER RAINS THRU MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY INTO THE TUESDAY EVENING
HOURS..AND WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST SNOWS UP
THRU THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.  THE
UPSTREAM NORTHERN STREAM H5 TROF NOW DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE EVENTUAL PHASING OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM H5 SYSTEM WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OH VALLEY THRU WEDNESDAY..WITH ONLY SLOWLY
FALLING HEIGHTS AND A SLOW SOUTH AND EAST PUSH TO THE STRONGER AND
MORE MOIST SOUTWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET.  THE LONG DURATION OF THE
DEEP LAYERED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SOME VERY HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT FROM MAINLY THRU THE OH VALLEY..ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOME LOWER
FF GUIDANCE VALUES IN PLACE.  ON WEDNESDAY..THIS CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN A
SLOWLY HEIGHT FALLING REGIME SHOULD THEN ALLOW THE TRANSITION FROM
A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT TO THE HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT..AGAIN PRETTY
MUCH NEAR THE LENGTH OF THE OH RIVER.  WPC CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE
IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE BIAS CORRECTED QPF TO ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE
NORTH-SOUTH QPF DIFFERENCES THE MODELS ARE SHOWING..WITH THE
EXPECTATION FOR SOME 2-3 INCH WATER EQUIVALENTS THIS PERIOD ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER.  PLEASE SEE THE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS
ON THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.



...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THIS REGION IN RESPONSE TO H5 S/WV ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN..SOUTHERN STREAM H5 ENERGY LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES..AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MODEL
QPFS GENERALLY SUPPORT SOME MODERATE AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN CO AND NORTHERN NM..WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
AMOUNTS THRUOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.  AGAIN..PLEASE SEE THE
QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 479617 483620 488623 491628 494635 496644 499648 503652
      507658 511662 515666 519671 522675 535716 538745
      539759 537771 538778 536784 529790 514804 514811 513816
      511824 506834 504839 502843 499850 496853 493853 484858
      484865 483869 478876 477887 475891 473895 471898 468901
      465898 465890 466883 466875 462864 460857 456855 453855
      450852 449847 451845 453842 457841 458836 455833 451824
      446819 443816 437816 427818 420823 414828 411836 408845
      396890 390904 387913 385923 384930 384937 384951 388958
      395963 398965 400969 404977 406988 411988 414987 416990
      417997 420009 423022 424034 423057 423062 421066 417073
      413078 410080 404080 400081 397085 391092 383095 380098
      378098 376097 376090 372082 370077 367072 366070 364069
      360072 361078 361083 359085 356080 353078 350080 345084
      344096 345102 346105 350114 354117 352119 347116 336113
      335109 331110 327109 323111 322116 323121 323126 320130
      311131 309133 310136 311142 315151 321158 322160 320164
      315166 310165 303162 294160 283158 279159 275159 272157
      269153 268150 268147 273139 280136 284135 285133 282130
      278125 276113 274108 271104 267102 262103 257103 253104
      246107 243106 242102 239098 243090 244087 241085 238082
      238076 241072 244070 245065 247060 250058 255057 264059
      271063 281065 285067 289066 293063 295059 295051 294046
      292040 291035 292012 293001 293996 291993 288985 284981
      283975 286958 289950 293943 297924 297910 295906 295899
      295886 299878 305871 310867 315867 319866 324865 327863
      333857 337851 334843 333835 337817 340808 344800 348790
      346788 344790 341794 337802 334807 333809 329810 327808
      327803 328799 330796 335791 339785 345778 347773 344768
      343764 343760 347752 348745 351738
 0.01 351738 354730 356725 357721 360713 365705 368696 371688
      375680 379672 383662 388656 394649 398644
 0.01 409110 410103 408098 404102 401107 398110 391113 383117
      377121 375127 374132 377132 380129 386123 392117 401116
      407112 409110
 0.01 366124 366122 366121 365121 363121 364123 364124 366124
      366124
 0.01 326076 324070 322065 319061 316055 312060 310064 307070
      306074 307078 312075 315071 317069 320069 320076 321080
      325078 326076
 0.25 478666 476659 472655 464650 454648 447648 439651 418654
      413656 407660 398666 392674 387685 384692 383699 380712
      379724 379738 380756 383764 385770 384777 383782 379793
      366816 361825 355835 350844 347855 343867 339877 333890
      331897 331904 331911 329916 324925 318936 313945 308955
      306960 305967 307974 310981 312986 317992 320994 325996
      331997 335003 337007 341010 347010 354009 358007 361003
      363996 360992 358987 359980 360969 363963 368952 373940
      379918 394865 400843 404831 408819 412809 417798 419790
      420783 420774 418767 414763 414756 417752 422749 426749
      429748 429750 430757 432762 435763 438761 440756 447748
      450751 452753 456752 459751 462748 463744 463737 461730
      458729 454732 452736 449741 447739 443735 438735 435735
      434733 434727 436724 440724 446724 448725 450729 455726
      460721 464717 468715 472711 472703 473698 473692 471690
      469691 467692 466688 468681 475672 477669 478666
 0.25 398051 398048 397047 396046 394045 393045 392046 391048
      390049 388050 390051 392051 393051 395051 397051 398051
 0.25 385052 383047 379046 374045 371046 367048 361049 360054
      365056 370055 374054 377051 383053 385052
 0.25 314107 314105 313105 313103 312101 311100 310100 309100
      308101 307101 305102 304104 304106 304107 305108 306109
      308110 309110 311110 312109 313108 314107
 0.25 316030 316028 317026 316026 314026 313026 312026 310027
      309028 308029 307030 307032 306034 308036 310036 312035
      312034 314033 314032 315031 316030
 0.25 305093 299083 294080 291076 285073 280071 274069 267067
      255063 250067 251073 254078 259082 265090 271093 278093
      291093 303095 305093
 0.50 445678 446676 446673 444671 442671 440672 439674 438675
      439678 441679 441680 443681 445680 445678
 0.50 439687 430687 425686 424682 423677 419676 417671 413669
      408670 404674 398681 393690 390700 388705 387711 388723
      388730 390739 392751 394757 398759 401756 403750 406741
      410733 417712 422703 425700 429697 436692 439689 439687
 0.50 414790 413783 411781 406776 402775 389788 382795 376805
      372813 368822 364832 359842 351861 343882 340891 337902
      335911 331924 323943 320952 321960 324965 331970 337970
      342969 349964 355955 361947 366938 374918 381897 388876
      394856 400832 406810 409798 414790
 0.50 290085 288081 284076 278074 273071 267070 262070 258071
      257073 261078 265080 269085 275087 282087 288086 290085
 1.00 402809 402797 399792 394793 388799 384804 380811 376820
      373827 370835 359869 348903 341920 335934 333943 332950
      333952 336954 341954 346950 351945 357938 364924 371908
      378893 384875 390858 399823 402809
 1.50 398807 397802 395802 392803 389806 386813 384818 381825
      378831 372844 363871 354899 349913 343925 341931 339939
      341941 343941 348938 352933 356927 362914 369902 374890
      380876 385863 389848 393834 396819 398807
 2.00 386843 387838 387836 385835 382834 378840 376846 371858
      367869 363882 361889 361896 362899 364898 367892 374883
      379871 383859 386845 386843

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.