Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 211851
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
151 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 22/0000 UTC THRU NOV 23/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST---NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

THE STRONG FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING INITIALLY ALONG 140-150W
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY
EASTWARD THIS PERIOD---MAINTAINING DEEP LAYERED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TO ITS EAST IMPACTING AREAS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO
WESTERN CANADA.  WHILE THE WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT IN THIS DEEP
LAYERED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT FROM VALUES DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY---IT WILL REMAIN STRONG IN THE AXIS OF ABOVE
AVERAGE PW VALUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FOR THE PRECIP WITH THE ONGOING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT TO BEGIN
TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD---FOLLOWED BY A MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERY PATTERN FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST---INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST
MODEL SUITE WITH THE DISTRIBUTION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS THROUGH THE WASHINGTON/OREGON CASCADES WEST TO THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON COAST RANGES AND OLYMPIC RANGE.  MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS ALSO LIKELY INLAND THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM EASTERN WA/WESTERN
MT---NORTHEAST OREGON---NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ID AND INTO NORTHWEST
WY/FAR EASTERN ID.  WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INLAND THIS PERIOD---SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH WITH
MOST OF THE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.  THIS WILL CONTINUE THE RISK
OF RUNOFF ISSUE---ESPECIALLY FROM THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA SOUTH INTO
THE UPPER OREGON COAST--INLAND THROUGH THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ID WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP ACROSS THESE AREAS.

COASTAL CAROLINAS---COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND

A MEAN TROF WILL PERSIST DAY 1 ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO.  A LEAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING FROM THIS
TROF WILL SUPPORT AN EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIP THROUGH THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS/COASTAL MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN/COASTAL NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.  AS THESE LEAD HEIGHT FALLS PUSH OFF THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COAST THEY WILL INTERACT WITH NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALL
PUSHING EAST FROM THE EASTERN LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY TO
SUPPORT AN AXIS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIP FROM EASTERN LONG
ISLAND ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN
A TREND TOWARD HEAVIER PRECIP TOTAL OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE OVERALL FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS AND NORTHEASTWARD PUSH
OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND---THIS
TREND SEEMS REASONABLE AND WAS FOLLOWED IN THE NEW DAY 1.

GREAT LAKES

PRIOR TO INTERACTING WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING HEIGHT FALLS
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD---THE NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL
PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.  CYCLONIC
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT---SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY OFF THE
UPPER LAKES AND INTO THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN AND WESTERN L.P.
OVERNIGHT AND DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE LOWER LAKES (ERIE AND
ONTARIO) DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  OVERALL---LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL
WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION
WILL PUSH A FAST MOVING AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION DURING WEDNESDAY.
THE EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS PRECIP AREA SHOULD KEEP ANY
PRECIP/SNOWFALL TOTALS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.


WESTERN GULF COAST

ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY---RE AMPLIFYING THE MEAN SOUTHERN STREAM TROF
OVER THE WESTERN GULF DURING WEDNESDAY.  SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO LIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COASTAL REGION FROM
COASTAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINS
REMAINING WELL SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE WESTERN GULF COASTAL
REGION WHERE THE STRONGEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL RESIDE DURING DAY 1.  SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AFFECTS WITH THIS RE
AMPLIFYING TROF WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL THE DAY 2-3 TIME PERIOD
FARTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS FLORIDA.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


24HR QP VT 23/00Z
 0.01 482616 486622 490629 496644 499652 503656 506662 507672
      508677 507680 508685 508690 507693 511694 513694 515696
      519697 521704 523709 524717 526722 527726 528738 529750
      527757 525765 523771 520776 515780 509781 507778 502765
      499760 495761 493763 487766 483771 477774 471776 464778
      456780 454787 454791 453793 453799 455803 457810 458819
      456823 452821 450820 448822 446828 444829 441828 434823
      431820 427820 422825 413834 405841 400844 397846 393847
      388847 386845 386840 387834 389830 390825 386822 386817
      389810 389807 387804 384811 377821 369829 363832 359837
      352846 346845 342842 341838 342834 346829 349826 361820
      368816 372812 379800 388794 394792 398788 403786 407782
      416761 421756 423753 424749 427743 428740 432739 437733
      432731 425734 421736 413742 410747 406751 392769 381777
      374788 367798 363803 359808 355810 349811 339809 333809
      328807 316806 310808 302810 294809 288806 280801 269794
      269787 272783 279777 290772 294769 295767 295763 294758
      295755 297747 304737 308734 307729 306720 309715 312710
      317705 323698 339683 357668
 0.01 544163 544155 544147 540137 528124 525123 523120 518118
      515115 509115 511126 514137 514145 513148 511147 504144
      495138 484127 476124 472122 468121 465121 464122 461127
      453130 451130 451127 453122 454115 456110 457108 456104
      454099 452095 449093 445094 436094 432091 429088 425086
      425089 429098 428101 425103 421105 422110 423115 422119
      426125 428125 430123 434118 437116 440116 442118 443120
      444123 442131 438133 436136 434140 431149 430154 430159
      432163 431166 428170 429175 425185 424189 426190 430193
      437198 441207 445210 447214 438213 434212 429210 426211
      424215 423223 426226 428228 428230 426235 418231 413231
      409232 406233 403236 401239 401243 402247 405250 406253
      407259 409264 412267 417268 421267 435261 444263 451262
      458259 465258 492286 495288 498289 505288 511284 512278
      515275 520264 522259 524252 530229 533216 535212 536204
      541181 542168 544163
 0.01 508214 508212 507211 506209 506208 505206 504208 505209
      505211 506211 507214 508214
 0.01 514030 515017 515005 512988 508971 506968 507965 509957
      509944 509938 508935 507929 506927 505924 502924 474920
      467917 462918 459920 457920 452924 448930 448941 449946
      450949 450958 454965 458969 463974 469974 473976 475979
      478986 484997 485001 486007 488015 491030 494039 498044
      503049 507048 508047 510043 512037 514030
 0.01 483874 483863 480857 478851 478845 478840 476837 471835
      467838 461838 453839 449838 447844 442847 438854 435854
      429852 424852 418855 412854 407855 406857 406861 410866
      412868 415869 419870 424868 430866 437865 450863 454863
      457864 459865 461869 463874 463878 462881 458893 460899
      463904 466906 469906 472900 474894 477890 480880 483874
 0.01 476111 478109 477106 476106 475106 473103 472103 470103
      468102 467102 466102 466105 468107 468108 469110 471113
      472113 474111 476111 476111
 0.01 230942 232947 233955 233963 234969 235973 238978 245978
      250977 256978 262977 267975 275975 288975 293974 297971
      304969 308965 313962 317959 325954 329951 332947 334943
      334940 332934 327930 323927 325913 323908 319905 314902
      308901 301900 295898 291896 289891 289886 291881 294866
      297860 303859 307856 311856 316856 319853 322853 330844
      333839 333835 329835 324833 313832 307835 303835 302832
      302825 300820 295819 289820 278823 266829 257834 253837
      248839 244842 241847 233855 229866 228871 227878 227892
      227900 228906 229922
 0.25 532205 533197 533191 532184 531180 527173 522167 514162
      511164 507162 500163 496163 492160 478150 475148 475144
      480142 488145 491142 489137 485132 478128 473126 469130
      468135 467141 458140 453142 444145 440145 437146 435148
      435151 435157 438164 442174 443179 441183 444190 444194
      448194 454189 460185 466181 471175 489179 498181 503186
      515200 524213 527212 529210 532205
 0.25 516262 518254 518247 515237 512228 508221 503212 498205
      491200 487198 483199 469207 462208 458209 456212 449217
      440217 433219 428223 432226 436228 444228 448228 455225
      458227 455231 448233 442235 435238 431241 427241 418241
      415245 414248 417251 421253 425253 433253 441252 447250
      456248 464248 473251 479256 491270 496276 503282 506281
      508278 511272 516262
 0.25 499248 498244 495241 493235 490226 486223 483222 474221
      471223 470225 473228 477228 480231 482234 482237 486236
      490237 492240 496248 498250 499248
 0.25 476649 476643 475638 473635 470633 459633 447636 435640
      407650 397654 386660 364674 357681 353692 344701 338710
      334720 329729 327735 325742 316750 314754 312759 310771
      311780 313787 317793 320797 328794 333791 336787 345779
      348774 353771 359767 365769 370770 376767 392750 400743
      408736 439703 443698 448694 459687 466680 471670 475657
      476649
 0.25 447751 445749 443749 441750 438751 436753 433756 432759
      434763 436763 438763 441760 442759 445756 447754 447751
 0.25 446111 445109 444106 443106 442104 441103 439104 437104
      435105 433106 433107 432109 433110 435111 436112 437112
      438112 440111 442112 443112 445112 446111
 0.25 308924 307920 304917 298912 288904 282897 278888 278880
      279872 285856 288848 286844 283842 277837 268836 264837
      261839 257845 253853 249859 245865 241871 236888 234896
      233904 232916 233927 235946 238954 241961 246966 254969
      263967 270963 274956 279952 284945 291941 301932 306927
      308924
 0.50 529204 530199 529194 527188 524184 519180 515176 510172
      507170 506174 509180 512186 515192 518196 522202 526206
      529204
 0.50 514264 516255 516248 514239 512233 510229 505221 500212
      498208 495207 489204 484204 478206 471211 463213 456216
      453219 455223 459225 463225 469221 473219 477219 486222
      489222 491224 492229 496238 501246 504255 506260 509264
      512266 514264
 0.50 506276 507272 506269 505263 503260 500256 490240 487238
      483239 482239 480234 477230 474230 471231 466231 458232
      450235 443238 440240 439242 439246 443247 447247 454245
      463245 472247 481252 486259 497275 499278 503279 506276
 0.50 489170 488165 486162 482156 475153 470148 466145 462144
      456147 450151 445153 442152 440153 439157 440163 441168
      444172 447173 449176 454183 458183 461181 462175 456175
      454172 454168 455166 457164 459165 466170 472169 475169
      479170 485172 489170
 0.50 486139 486136 486135 484134 483133 481132 479131 478130
      476130 474129 473130 472131 471133 471135 472138 473140
      475140 477140 479140 480139 482139 484140 485139 486139
 0.50 467652 464644 460640 456640 452644 443651 439654 433657
      421663 416664 411663 406661 401661 389664 381667 376670
      371673 368678 366683 365689 366697 368705 368707 366709
      361713 355716 351720 339736 334739 329744 320751 319758
      321763 324767 320771 319777 319786 320790 322792 329790
      333787 336783 341775 345761 352753 359744 362740 365735
      365732 368732 374733 380736 380741 380744 383745 389743
      398737 417721 425713 431705 439695 448687 457680 463672
      465666 466661 467652
 0.50 448224 449222 448221 447221 446222 446221 445220 443219
      442219 441219 441222 443223 444223 446224 448224 448224
 0.50 294929 295924 294920 290915 282908 279906 277904 273898
      272884 274876 275871 279859 279854 278849 275847 268848
      265851 257862 250871 246883 243889 242894 238908 236922
      237938 239946 240952 244957 248960 256961 262960 264953
      269949 277943 289936 294929
 1.00 513258 513249 512243 510235 506232 502225 500219 498213
      495210 483207 477210 474214 477217 480218 486219 491214
      493217 493226 495233 498238 502243 505249 507255 510260
      513258
 1.00 504276 504268 502262 498256 495252 492245 488241 486241
      485243 486249 488256 491261 494267 497272 502277 504276
 1.00 481244 481241 480240 480239 479236 478233 477233 476232
      474232 473233 472234 471236 471238 472240 473241 473242
      475243 476244 478245 479245 481244
 1.00 465239 466237 465234 464234 463236 463237 465239 465239
 1.00 474158 472156 470153 469152 467149 464149 462149 460151
      460154 463156 465158 466160 470161 471160 474158
 1.00 460238 460237 458235 457235 455236 456238 458239 460238
      460238
 1.00 457662 456659 453659 447662 439666 430673 424679 417686
      412688 408688 404685 399684 391685 388686 389689 393691
      402692 403697 402702 399712 402717 404720 410720 414717
      422711 427703 433694 438688 447681 453675 456668 457662
 1.00 280925 279924 277924 275924 275925 277927 278927 279926
      280925
 1.00 268909 267898 266890 265883 265879 263877 259879 257882
      253887 251894 250903 247919 245928 244935 245944 247952
      250954 254954 256952 257947 256937 254934 254929 255925
      258923 262919 266913 268909
 1.50 511254 511246 509239 505234 502230 499224 496221 494223
      494227 496234 499238 503244 506248 508255 511254
 1.50 502275 504271 503268 502264 499260 497255 494251 492248
      489244 487246 488252 490256 492261 494264 496268 499273
      502275 502275
 1.50 484212 482211 481211 480211 479211 477212 477214 477215
      478215 480216 481216 482216 483214 484213 484212
 1.50 479241 479239 479238 478236 478234 476233 474234 473237
      474238 475240 477241 478241 479241
 1.50 444676 444675 442675 441675 439676 437675 437676 436677
      434678 432679 431681 431682 431685 432685 433685 435684
      437683 438682 440680 441679 442679 443678 444676 444676
 1.50 425698 423699 425700 425698
 1.50 424703 423702 422701 421701 420701 419702 418704 418705
      417706 416708 417709 419709 420707 420706 422704 424703
      424703
 1.50 416710 415709 414710 414711 416710 416710
 2.00 502272 502267 501264 499261 498259 496256 495254 493251
      491249 489252 490255 491258 493261 495264 496267 498269
      500271 502272
 2.00 504239 502238 501235 500232 499230 498229 497226 496225
      495226 495228 495229 496231 497232 498234 499237 500237
      501238 502238 504239 504239
 2.00 477238 477236 477235 476235 475235 476236 477238 477238
 3.00 499266 499263 497261 497260 496259 495257 495256 494254
      493253 492252 491253 492255 492256 493257 494259 494260
      495262 496262 497264 498265 498266 499266

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