Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 300644
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 30/1200 UTC THRU OCT 01/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NORTHERN PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS...

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN CLOSING OFF
THE STRONG NEGATIVE TILT H5 S/WV NOW LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INTO A CLOSED H5 LOW WHICH THEN SHIFTS NORTHWARD THRU THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.  AHEAD OF THIS H5
SYSTEM..40-50+ KTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO SHIFT
NORTHWARD THRU THE NORTHERN PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY..AIMED INTO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL N-S TROF AXIS SETTING UP
VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  IMPRESSIVE LARGE SCALE LIFT
ENHANCED BY STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS/HEIGHT FALLS AND STILL
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS AND THE STRONG INFLOW OF PWS BETWEEN
1-1.25 INCHES WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS UP THRU THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS..WITH SOME MODERATE RAINS
EXTENDING A BIT EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE ENHANCED
WRAP-AROUND RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW.  MODEL QPFS
WERE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT HERE..AND FOLLOWED THEM RATHER
CLOSELY WITH 0.50-1.50 INCH AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY.


...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

AN INITIALLY BROAD H85 LOW LEVEL JET/INFLOW AHEAD OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS H5 SYSTEM BECOMES A BIT MORE FOCUSED UP
THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF 40+ KTS OF
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY H85 FLOW BETWEEN 06-12Z.  MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY BE INCREASING ON THIS SOMEWHAT STRENGTHENING AND MORE
FOCUSED INFLOW..WITH PWS REACHING/POOLING ABOVE 1.50 INCHES LATE
IN THE PERIOD.  THIS INCREASING MOISTURE/LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LIFT FROM GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS AND
IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY..AND MORE SPECIFICALLY FROM KS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NE..NORTHWESTERN MO AND MUCH OF WESTERN IA.  AGAIN..MODEL QPFS IN
SURPRISINGLY DECENT AGREEMENT HERE..WITH ALL INDICATING AN AXIS OF
1-2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND STUCK CLOSE TO THIS IDEA.


...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES...

THE DIGGING/GENERALLY STRENGTHENING H5 TROF WILL PUSH A RATHER
WEAK COLD FRONT THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS PERIOD..TRIGGERING A RATHER
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT BUT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE DUE TO MARGINAL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND A PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM.  NO ARGUMENT WITH THE MODEL QPFS HERE..ALL OF WHICH WERE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY BELOW 0.50 INCH.


...FL...

SOME DRYING WILL TRY TO SPREAD INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN FL
PENINSULA DURING THE PERIOD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THAT
AREA..BUT SOUTH OF THE FRONT PWS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES
THRU THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE PENINSULA.  THIS
CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK H5 S/WV ENERGY MOVING THRU
AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION..WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS MORE FOCUSED ALONG
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE PENINSULA UNDER THE PREVALILING
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY H85 FLOW.  THE NAM QPF LOOKED A BIT TOO FAR
NORTH AND THE GFS QPF LOOKED A LITTLE LIGHT..SO STAYED CLOSER TO
THE HIRES ARW/NMMB5 AND NON NCEP MODELS WHICH HAD A LITTLE MORE
QPF.


TERRY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 558029 559009 559999 558992 556987 551987 544989 537993
      532993 529989 526981 524969 521959 519955 516954 507954
      504957 499956 494949 489944 484939 477934 473933 474926
      474919 471914 462913 458914 453915 445916 436919 420925
      393939 379947 368956 360963 353971 350975 348980 346983
      345989 339995 336998 334003 336006 340007 344008 345013
      348013 353011 360007 367004 373004 376003 380002 383000
      388996 394993 403991 406987 411984 420986 428991 434996
      434001 431004 424006 418013 415023 415034 418043 427056
      430078 432083 432088 426086 425093 427099 427101 425102
      420103 416101 413098 413084 417074 417069 415064 410059
      403054 389049 387047 383047 377053 379056 383056 385058
      387057 389059 389063 387065 382071 377069 373069 377079
      380082 383081 387080 390083 388093 390103 390109 388112
      382118 377123 381124 383128 381133 381139 382142 386144
      393144 388139 389133 393131 396131 397136 396144 400146
      404142 406144 406148 412152 415151 418151 418154 422156
      423145 423138 425134 431127 436127 438131 437143 437158
      437163 440166 444167 446170 451176 453184 456183 459180
      461178 459171 461168 464169 469171 477177 483184 486187
      488189 488193 486203 480205 473211 443218 440219 438221
      439224 444225 450225 456225 459227 466227 475225 480226
      484226 491227 492233 496235 499231 501223 505216 510211
      516205 521201 525201 529199 531197 532189 536182 538178
      539170 539164 537160 535152 532146 529142 521134 513129
      505124 503114 503109 502103 502095 503091 505089 513087
      525079 538070 548059 551052 555043 558029
 0.01 483245 483244 482242 482241 481239 480238 480236 479235
      478233 478232 476232 474233 473234 472235 472236 471238
      472239 472241 473242 474243 476244 478245 479245 481245
      483245 483245
 0.01 479688 478681 476676 474674 468675 466676 466679 468687
      470691 469696 472699 474700 477696 479691 479688
 0.01 486085 487075 485068 484063 480063 476064 462064 457064
      454067 453071 453077 454081 456086 458094 461099 462102
      465102 470102 472100 474102 477104 477106 479113 481116
      482112 480099 483092 486085
 0.01 465239 465236 464235 460235 455235 451236 448236 443237
      442241 446240 451240 454239 459240 463240 465239
 0.01 470120 469118 468117 467116 466117 465118 464119 465121
      467122 468122 470120
 0.01 456837 456835 455835 454833 454832 452831 450830 448831
      447831 446831 445834 447836 447838 447839 449839 451840
      452840 454840 456838 456837
 0.01 411847 417835 423828 431825 439828 442825 440819 437812
      439810 446801 447788 442770 446756 448743 431733 422727
      425718 432709 437699 430689 422690 419682 412675 405677
      400681 396686 394692 391700 383703 377707 373712 374718
      378724 382729 386731 395732 397730 400730 404737 405742
      404746 396756 394763 393766 390768 373792 369796 369802
      377794 380792 383795 385798 385802 385811 389817 387833
      390836 393837 393840 393853 394858 396860 398862 401862
      405857 411847
 0.01 279879 286856 290840 294830 300816 316801 335777 351752
      353745 350738 343735 334738 321748 309764 294772 279773
      265783 259786 251791 248794 247798 251812 252816 253823
      255834 257838 260842 263843 265846 263851 259861 258865
      259870 261876 263879 267884 272884 279879
 0.01 308941 309930 309920 306911 303905 300898 299893 300891
      298888 296890 291891 289893 290895 287897 282902 279909
      278916 279937 280946 285952 288953 288959 289961 292962
      295960 299960 303956 307948 308941
 0.01 283080 283074 280070 274063 271059 267056 261054 256054
      249053 244054 239056 236059 235063 237067 245073 254078
      264081 277082 281082 283080
 0.25 542033 542025 539022 534017 525010 520006 516999 515993
      512987 507986 503987 496989 490991 485993 479991 473987
      465979 462972 458966 450956 445951 444948 445943 446934
      443930 434929 426931 414935 393946 381954 377959 374966
      368977 361987 361990 364992 368991 375989 389986 395985
      401981 410976 417973 423973 429975 435979 445986 450991
      453995 453004 451009 449011 439019 430026 428029 427033
      429038 434045 440049 446053 451054 465054 478054 484055
      492058 506060 514059 519057 527051 532046 536042 542033
 0.25 527169 527166 526162 525159 523157 521154 519153 517153
      515156 514160 515163 516166 518169 520172 523172 526171
      527169
 0.25 503150 501146 498142 495139 492136 489134 484132 480132
      479137 482140 485142 489144 493147 496150 499152 503150
      503150
 0.25 449109 451102 450097 447094 442092 438093 436100 435104
      432109 433114 438115 443118 447114 449110 449109
 0.25 442071 442073 443075 444076 446077 446073 444071 442071
 0.25 428805 427800 422801 419804 417807 415811 412816 411819
      413822 415819 418815 421812 424808 427805 428805
 0.25 419750 419747 418747 417746 415746 413747 412749 410751
      408753 408754 407756 407757 409759 410758 411758 412757
      414756 415755 416754 417752 419750 419750
 0.25 419119 419116 415114 413113 410112 407112 405112 401113
      401114 403118 406118 408119 411121 415122 417121 419119
 0.25 413779 414775 412773 407773 402775 397777 393779 394782
      397784 401787 405789 409790 410786 412781 413779
 0.25 335763 332760 327762 325764 322768 319772 317775 316781
      319782 321781 325778 327775 329772 333767 334765 335763
 0.25 296798 292794 286793 280790 274788 268791 263794 258799
      255801 255804 256808 258811 262815 266819 270824 271831
      273836 279838 282835 286829 291825 293818 294811 294801
      296798
 0.25 257065 257064 256063 255063 253062 251061 250061 248061
      246061 244061 243062 242064 244065 245066 247067 249067
      251068 253068 255067 256067 257066 257065
 0.50 527034 526031 523029 518028 513028 509027 498023 490018
      484008 477004 471001 468003 465014 461019 456020 447024
      439030 435032 433037 437043 441045 451048 464049 475049
      486050 495051 501053 507053 515049 522042 525039 527034
 0.50 442110 440108 438109 438110 440111 442110 442110
 0.50 437942 435938 432937 424937 416938 409940 396947 390951
      386955 381961 379968 377979 376982 380982 390982 396980
      407973 421966 428964 433959 435951 437942
 0.50 289816 289810 288806 283802 275799 268799 261802 260807
      266812 271816 276820 281823 285823 287820 289816
 1.00 480039 477036 472035 469036 465038 462037 457037 453038
      452039 457041 460043 465043 470044 474043 478042 480039
 1.00 426954 426947 424945 419943 415945 410947 405946 398951
      391956 389959 386963 386972 391974 396973 403969 410966
      419961 425956 426954
 1.00 282811 282808 281807 280806 278805 277805 276805 274805
      272805 271806 272808 273808 275809 277811 278811 278812
      280812 282811 282811
 1.50 420954 418951 407955 400960 399963 402965 406963 415959
      418956 420954

$$




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