Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 191843
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 20/0000 UTC THRU AUG 21/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES...

THE MODELS SHOW AGREEMENT IN DIGGING A MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
MID SECTION OF THE NATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THROUGH
THE MIDWEST THROUGH SAT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT AND LIFTS NORTHEAST UP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE POOLING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...AND THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME OF THE STRONGER MODEL
SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINS IS OVER GENERALLY EASTERN KS AND INTO THE
WESTERN MO WHERE PLACEMENT OF RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS
ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD FOCUS MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LOCALLY A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
EXPECTED HERE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. FARTHER NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE UPPER LAKES REGION...SOMEWHAT CONCENTRATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE AND STRONGER
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS.
LOCALLY A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE LIKELY HERE. WPC QPF
LEANED A BIT MORE STRONGLY TOWARD THE ARW/NSSL-WRF GUIDANCE EARLY
IN THE PERIOD...AND TRANSITIONING TO SOME WEIGHTING TOWARD THE GFS
AND ECMWF BY LATE SAT.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST...

THE AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES...RUNNING LOCALLY 2+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT ACROSS A
LARGE AREA OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EXTENDING EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. DIURNAL HEATING AND FORCING FROM MULTIPLE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MORE ORGANIZED AND HEAVIER RAINFALL POTENTIAL
WILL BE EXPECTED THOUGH ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TX BIG BEND AREA AND ADJACENT HILL COUNTRY WHERE
THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE HIRES GUIDANCE
INCLUDING PRIOR RUNS OF THE ARW AND NSSL-WRF SUGGEST A SW/NE AXIS
OF HEAVY CONVECTION RAINS. GIVEN THE POOLING OF DEEPER MOISTURE AS
SEEN IN THE BLENDED-TPW PRODUCT AND CIRA-LPW PLOTS...LOCALLY
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND THIS MAY RESULT
IN A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING. WPC QPF FAVORED A BLEND OF THE
ARW/NSSL-WRF AND ALSO THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 21/00Z
 0.01 531718 529699 528691 524689 516681 513678 510680 506683
      504688 500698 497709 491718 472753 468759 467762 463765
      460768 457769 453771 449772 446771 442776 435777 433773
      430773 428772 423773 419778 413779 395785 383787 378785
      376780 375775 376770 378763 375753 370745 368736 369725
      362709 350692 346689 342688 336685 332688 326692 322695
      320700 315708 311719 311739 314764 311770 307776 296787
      295791 293797 300804 310808 314810 317815 329828 328834
      327840 322850 317857 311862 310864 308862 307856 302850
      298855 302864 301872 300877 299880 296884 291887 281891
      276894 274899 273902 277906 275910 278913 286916 292923
      297926 299932 293949 292953 290956 285963 280969 275976
      272982 268992 245995 240995 238000 236016 232025 229035
      230057 237070 241077 243080 247084 259096 269105 277111
      285116 295122 306126 311128 316131 318135 319140 321144
      324144 328144 332140 335138 339138 343140 346139 351140
      356142 362146 359140 364140 367138 367132 365127 361120
      357117 354112 349103 346098 345096 347094 351091 355094
      358096 362094 364091 362087 359084 359081 361081 368074
      371073 371076 372080 374081 377083 379083 380080 381073
      383070 387069 391072 394074 398072 400070 400065 409056
      410051 414047 417043 419037 429015 431011 435009 439008
      444010 451015 457016 460016 461014 463008 463002 463995
      462992 458986 456982 455978 457974 464958 467953 470951
      477947 486942 493936 496929 497923 499908 499901 500894
      500880 506853 511836 512826 513813 514800 517789 518783
      521778 524768 526757 527746
 0.01 527746 527743 527740 527738 527735 528735 528732 528729
      528727 529726 529724 530723 530721 531718
 0.01 425724 422720 415720 410718 406717 400715 395717 392722
      394729 399733 404734 410733 417732 420730 421728 425724
 0.01 434976 433968 433961 434956 433952 431950 429952 425956
      422961 419967 416973 417980 424982 429980 434976
 0.01 383195 382193 380190 378188 377186 374184 372182 368181
      365182 363184 364187 367189 371189 372191 376193 377195
      381196 383195
 0.01 322089 319078 317072 315069 308061 305056 301053 298050
      293048 289048 286049 284053 286059 290062 294064 297068
      302071 304074 308078 309083 311089 315092 318092 320091
      322089
 0.01 303819 299813 293811 280805 269798 264797 261799 256802
      252805 251809 253815 251816 252820 254825 257828 260829
      263830 267829 278832 284832 288833 293837 297837 299834
      298828 300826 301821 303819
 0.25 520739 520724 517709 515704 512704 507711 500716 496722
      493731 490742 486755 481769 476776 472783 469790 467794
      467799 464808 460816 458820 454823 445827 438828 435830
      432833 426838 418842 411847 406850 400853 391856 387856
      384852 384847 385840 385836 383834 376828 369826 364827
      362829 351832 346836 342842 339850 333858 331863 330871
      329886 321900 320903 321906 323910 325913 328915 330921
      331931 329943 326951 319964 316968 315972 312975 310975
      311971 313968 312965 311954 308952 305955 303962 300968
      297974 289983 288989 287993 286997 283000 276005 267009
      261011 258012 255015 250019 245027 242030 241033 241043
      241050 241054 242058 248068 255077 261083 265090 279099
      288104 292106 296105 298103 296100 295091 294084 291081
      281072 271063 268058 268050 270040 271035 274032 283029
      290027 296023 301018 308014 310013 313014 317017 318021
      318026 318031 317035 314038 311041 313045 316047 329049
      331049 333046 330040 328038 327035 327031 331024 336016
      338013 340006 342997 343000 354013 371988 380981 391977
      399972 404966 415952 418948 421945 427940 433937 441937
      447939 453940 457940 463935 472925 481917 483912 485907
      487897 491873 494863 497854 500846 502835 504816 506807
      508797 512780 516765 518750 520739
 0.25 383049 383045 382042 380037 377032 375030 371029 368028
      366034 364037 363041 364043 367045 365049 365054 372055
      376053 382051 383049
 0.25 367764 362752 359741 358732 359726 358719 356714 353708
      350704 344699 336700 332703 327712 323722 322732 321739
      323745 326758 325782 328788 332791 335795 339797 347804
      350801 352797 355790 358786 362783 364778 366771 367764
 0.25 348127 348125 348124 347123 347121 345121 344122 344125
      346126 347127 348128 348127
 0.25 305104 305103 303102 301103 303104 304104 305104
 0.25 268812 267812 266810 265809 264809 263808 262807 261807
      260806 258807 257809 258811 258812 260813 261813 262814
      264814 266814 268813 268812
 0.50 515741 515729 514724 512721 508722 504726 498737 494749
      490760 486771 482781 479792 474805 468817 465822 460827
      451832 443836 434840 430843 427848 422856 418861 413865
      410870 409880 412887 414894 417898 419899 419903 417907
      413909 406915 403919 400922 389926 380932 374935 368938
      363941 356942 352931 347924 342925 339928 336932 335937
      331949 319973 317978 314982 305988 296993 289999 283005
      276009 271013 266015 262016 260018 259020 261022 272025
      278026 284026 292023 299017 314005 327003 332000 335995
      341983 345980 349981 351986 351992 352997 353999 356998
      369985 379978 389972 398965 405956 415936 418933 422933
      430931 435929 442930 448932 455931 460927 464923 470915
      476907 478902 480896 482882 485872 495845 497838 498829
      499814 502798 504787 507777 510765 512759 514751 515741
 0.50 398885 397885 395885 393885 392885 391886 390888 391890
      392891 394890 395889 396888 397886 398885
 0.50 372889 371886 368885 361885 354888 351887 349884 347881
      344882 342891 342897 344899 347902 350903 354905 358905
      365902 370896 372889
 0.50 361765 359756 357750 353744 352735 353726 351718 347711
      345709 341709 338711 336714 333719 330726 329733 331742
      334747 332762 331767 332772 337775 339777 343778 347782
      351781 354779 359775 361768 361765
 0.50 289095 289090 287085 282076 278072 275070 266066 255061
      251061 251064 253068 259076 264083 271090 280095 285097
      289096 289095
 0.50 262047 262045 260045 258043 259045 259047 260047 261048
      262047
 1.00 490828 489818 488813 486811 483812 479817 471828 464837
      458841 452843 442850 436853 433859 432866 432874 431879
      431885 436889 438891 438895 435899 431905 425909 423914
      428913 434910 440908 444911 447917 449920 452921 457918
      464910 468903 472897 475884 479867 483854 486847 489840
      490828
 1.00 400949 399945 395943 392944 389943 393938 391935 387934
      379937 373940 367944 365946 364949 366953 369954 375952
      377953 377956 375958 370963 365969 362974 361980 363983
      369981 379972 391965 397959 400952 400949
 1.00 343954 344948 343943 340942 338945 335952 332958 328965
      325973 324982 326984 330985 335980 337972 339965 343956
      343954
 1.00 315994 314990 312989 306992 299996 294000 289005 285010
      283014 282018 286020 290018 296016 301011 306007 311000
      315994 315994
 1.50 474858 473853 472851 468850 458854 452860 449867 451872
      451886 450891 448894 448897 450900 451903 452908 455909
      458909 462905 466895 469883 471876 472870 474858
 1.50 391956 391953 389954 386954 380958 379961 377961 374963
      370967 367972 370973 371972 376967 380964 386961 389959
      391956
 1.50 386938 384938 383940 384941 384940 386938 386938
 1.50 381943 380941 379940 378940 379942 379943 380943 381943
 1.50 379945 379943 377944 376943 375942 375943 375945 374947
      375948 376947 377946 379945 379945
 1.50 312994 310992 306993 302995 299998 297000 293004 291007
      291011 294013 298011 301008 304006 307002 309000 311996
      312994
 2.00 310996 310994 307994 304996 302997 300998 298000 296002
      295004 294008 296009 299008 301006 303004 305002 307000
      308998 310996

$$





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