Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 121900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 13/0000 UTC THRU FEB 14/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

COASTAL MAINE INTO CENTRAL MAINE

A WELL DEFINED INVERTED TROF EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING WELL EAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST AND SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL COAST OF
MAINE AND INTO NORTHWEST MAINE DAY 1.  STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROF AXIS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL COAST OF MAINE INTO
CENTRAL MAINE.  DESPITE THE RELATIVELY SMALL SCALE OF THIS
FEATURE...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 1200 UTC CYCLE
WITH THE RESPECTIVE QPF AXIS. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY WITH THIS AXIS...LEADING TO SOMEWHAT UNCERTAINTIES
WITH WHAT LIKELY WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
SNOWFALL.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION

GREAT LAKES

THE STRONG CYCLONIC UPPER VORTEX DROPPING SOUTHEAST DAY 1 FROM IN
THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...ACROSS WESTERN QB AND INTO
FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN BROAD DEEP LAYERED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ACTIVE MULTI BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE LEE OF ALL THE LAKES THIS PERIOD.  WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL NOT SUPPORT A WELL DEFINED SINGLE BANDED SQUALL OFF OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...THERE MAY BE A MULTI-LAKE TRAJECTORIES OFF OF
LAKE HURON AND ACROSS ERIE AND FROM GEORGIAN BAY ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...IMPACTING AREA OF NORTHEAST OHIO---NORTHWEST PA INTO
WESTERN NY STATE.

NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY.  MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
 THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL ENHANCE UVVS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  THIS WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASING AREA OF PRECIP IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST
MT/NORTHEAST WY INTO NORTHWEST SD AND SOUTHWEST ND.  THERE IS A
FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD WITH QPF DETAILS...LEADING TO BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.  THE DAY 1 QPF LEANED MORE TOWARD THE HI RES
ARW...NSSL WRF AND CMC GEM...WITH .10-.25" AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS
DEPICTED.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD AREA OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS
MOVING INLAND EARLY DAY 1...ADDITIONAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT
FALLS WILL PUSH TOWARD COASTAL NORTHWEST B.C. SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE PAC NW...SUPPORTING HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR
THE WA CASCADES AND WA COAST RANGE/OLYMPIC RANGE...WITH MODERATE
TOTALS IN BETWEEN.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 14/00Z
 0.01 533235 532225 535215 537207 537194 536184 534180 531178
      526172 521165 514155 508150 501146 497143 492138 483128
      478124 472124 468122 467119 470118 472116 473111 469105
      468104 467100 469097 473088 475078 475069 477061 485070
      494080 498085 501086 503088 508094 511096 512100 514111
      517122 520128 524131 528133 536146 539151 541150 542147
      543140 544136 545130 548126 551125 552122 555114 557107
      558098 559087 556076 556070 554065 550056 547049 541043
      538037 532032 528028 524023 519017 516013 516007 514990
      504985 490989 471989 465990 458988 449987 445985 443982
      438978 434973 430968 426966 422966 419966 417968 416969
      415974 417982 417992 436015 438018 438024 437031 435034
      434038 435043 438051 439058 439062 438064 438069 439072
      442079 445085 445088 441088 436092 433094 429093 428106
      426109 426113 434114 438115 442117 445119 445125 444131
      443135 439143 435150 434152 436155 446163 448165 449170
      447180 443185 443191 443200 444203 449205 454198 458191
      468178 473174 475172 479172 480178 484184 489185 493194
      491198 489199 484202 478204 473206 466206 460202 449214
      440214 435217 428218 423222 425225 427226 435228 438227
      442228 444232 442236 438239 436242 438243 438248 438253
      435259 432267 430277 434298 437307 441313 454321 457320
      461321 467323 478323 488319 498310 503302 505299 508300
 0.01 530237 530235 530232 529234 528236 529239 530237
 0.01 492731 491721 490716 489709 487694 484684 483678 481678
      472680 465677 463677 462674 463671 465665 466659 464653
      459647 455641 450638 445636 443634 440635 427643 421648
      414654 402664 397669 392674 384683 374690 350705 337713
      323722 317726 314732 308748 304760 301771 299777 298786
      300793 304797 307798 308793 310787 318786 323780 333770
      335767 338764 345761 350758 356760 362763 371761 375762
      377764 378773 383786 394780 395778 397779 400781 394787
      381798 372807 363815 355828 353832 352837 356838 359834
      362828 364826 366826 367828 368836 382832 385822 389816
      397814 401815 404817 411826 416829 419832 421830 420825
      422820 424819 434828 439831 445835 448837 447840 445840
      442843 437843 432839 427836 423836 423839 427845 432850
      436854 434857 431857 425855 423851 422846 418842 414835
      412831 410828 406829 401834 406852 403853 403855 408861
      412865 418872 421874 429874 436872 440872 444873 447870
      451870 455871 459875 461877 462881 462886 463892 465902
      467905 470904 475898 478890 481884 483881 483875 482862
      479855 474851 470847 465844 460841 457836 457830 455820
      456811 455806 453803 447797 440795 438793 437787 440778
      442770 443766 445762 451758 457760 462763 467762 470759
      474758 478759 481756 485755 486753 490752 489745 489741
      490737 492731
 0.01 438716 434713 433706 429705 426705 421710 418715 415720
      412725 412730 413732 417733 420732 423727 428724 433723
      436719 438716
 0.01 424739 422735 419735 414737 408738 405737 401739 401746
      399751 400755 402757 405757 407754 410751 411749 415745
      420744 423742 424739
 0.01 288776 288774 288772 287772 286770 285770 283770 282770
      281771 280773 280775 280778 281778 282779 282781 283782
      285782 286781 287781 287779 288777 288776
 0.01 279861 279859 279857 279854 279852 279850 278848 277846
      276845 274847 273849 273851 273853 274855 274857 275857
      276859 276861 277861 278861 279861
 0.25 528202 529199 529198 527197 526196 526195 524195 523195
      523197 524199 525200 525201 527202 528202 528202
 0.25 517267 519257 517251 512239 507229 502219 499213 495207
      491205 486206 476209 468212 462213 458215 454219 453223
      456229 456234 454236 450239 449242 450246 455257 460268
      463273 467278 475285 480288 485289 495290 501291 505288
      508284 510278 517267
 0.25 510181 510173 507167 504164 501164 495162 490162 487165
      487169 490174 491181 495187 499188 504185 508183 510181
 0.25 494241 493236 490232 489228 484225 481223 476222 474227
      478229 481234 484235 486236 491239 493242 494241
 0.25 493148 491145 489139 487136 484133 479130 474130 472133
      472140 474143 476144 482143 486145 490148 493148
 0.25 484158 483158 482156 480156 479157 480160 482160 483158
      484158
 0.25 478159 477154 474149 473143 468144 463143 459145 457149
      457153 458158 461163 466162 468162 472163 476161 478159
 0.25 457697 456692 455688 450682 444673 439668 434666 428666
      424667 418672 414673 410675 399679 393685 389690 383699
      379705 374710 366717 362724 359730 359736 364738 371738
      376736 384728 390723 396720 404713 407710 408707 410699
      410697 413694 420694 426698 432698 438696 444697 451700
      455699 457697
 0.25 469865 469863 469861 469860 468858 467856 466856 465856
      463856 462858 461859 460861 461864 462866 462867 463868
      464870 466870 467870 469868 469867 469865
 0.25 454859 454857 453855 451854 450853 448853 446853 445855
      446857 447858 448859 450860 451860 452860 453860 454859
 0.25 443754 442752 440754 439755 439756 437758 436760 436763
      438765 439763 440762 441760 441759 442757 442756 443754
 0.25 442817 440815 439815 437814 435813 433814 432813 430814
      429817 430819 432820 434820 435820 437820 438820 439820
      440820 441820 442818 442817
 0.25 426862 424860 423860 422860 422862 424863 426862 426862
 0.25 422796 422794 421793 419794 418796 417797 416799 416800
      416802 416804 417807 419806 420804 420803 421801 421799
      422797 422796
 0.25 337745 334743 330743 322745 325738 326734 324733 320735
      316742 312751 312762 315766 318765 323758 325753 329751
      336747 337745
 0.50 516262 515253 512245 505234 498220 496215 495212 491209
      478211 474214 473217 474219 477219 481220 487224 490226
      491229 494235 502248 504253 503258 500256 492243 489239
      486238 484240 475230 469230 464233 459237 459242 461245
      468255 479266 487275 493281 496283 500284 505282 507272
      511271 513266 516262
 0.50 485138 484137 482135 481135 479134 477134 476134 476136
      477138 479138 480139 482139 484139 485138
 0.50 473219 471217 470216 468216 466217 464217 463217 461217
      460218 459219 458219 457222 457224 458225 460226 461227
      463226 465224 465223 467222 468222 469222 471221 471220
      473219
 0.50 472156 472155 471153 471152 469151 467150 466150 464150
      463151 462153 462156 463157 465158 466159 468159 470159
      471158 472157 472156
 0.50 451694 449687 447682 445679 442677 439674 435673 432677
      432682 434686 436690 440692 443693 447695 451694
 1.00 501274 501269 499265 495256 491247 488242 485244 481244
      480241 478235 474234 472237 472241 475246 479247 483250
      485253 490263 494270 497274 501274
 1.00 500235 500234 499232 498230 498229 497227 497226 496224
      495223 494222 493222 494225 494227 494228 495231 496234
      498236 499235 500235
 1.00 492217 492214 491213 489213 488213 487215 486218 487218
      488220 490219 492217 492217
 1.00 445688 444686 442685 441687 442689 443689 444689 445688

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.