Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 181858
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 19/0000 UTC THRU APR 20/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1

SOUTHEAST

HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST---BRINGING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S.  LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME CHANGES TO THE
PRECIPITATION STRUCTURE AHEAD OF THIS AMPLIFYING CLOSED LOW.  THE
CONVECTION THAT HAD BEEN ORGANIZED OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN---WITH THE EMPHASIS FOR SUSTAINED HEAVY
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST FROM NORTH
FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST
INFLOW OF ABOVE AVERAGE PWS AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW AND REMAIN IN
A FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW DURING
THE DAY 1 PERIOD. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE
AREAS WITH 1-2"+ AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED.  HOWEVER---WITH
THIS INFLOW AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY---AND FFG VALUES HIGH FROM NORTH
FLORIDA INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST---DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD RUNOFF ISSUES.

SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN TAKING THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS IN THE DIFFLUENT REGION DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST---INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS LOW GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN QPF
DETAILS.  HOWEVER---WITH PW VALUES ABOVE AVERAGE AND THE UPPER
FLOW VERY DIFFLUENT---BELIEVE WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE.  AREAL AVERAGE LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED---WITH
GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR GREATEST AMOUNTS FROM SOUTHWEST TX INTO
SOUTHERN NM.

NORTHER NY STATE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE LOWER 48---THREE WELL DEFINED
SYSTEMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD DAY 1.  THE LEAD NORTHERN STREAM VORT
WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY. AREAS FROM NORTHERN NY STATE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MAY RECEIVE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE FAR UPPER MS VALLEY

THE SECOND SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STRONG DAY 1 AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD FROM NORTH CENTRAL MT INTO
SOUTHERN SASK AND SOUTHERN MB.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN AXIS OF .25-.50"+ PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS IN THE AREA OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.  THE BULK OF THIS QPF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
BRINGING .10-.25"+ AMOUNTS FROM FAR NORTHEAST ND---ACROSS NORTHERN
MN---FAR NW WI INTO THE WESTERN U.P. OF MI.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ESTABLISHED NORTHERN STREAM WILL PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TONIGHT AND INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SATURDAY.  THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING ONSHORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 1 FOR AREAS TO
THE WEST OF THE WA/OREGON CASCADES.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
.10-.25"+ AMOUNTS WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS FROM COASTAL OREGON
NORTHWARD TO THE OLYMPICS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 20/00Z
 0.01 565027 565016 563008 561001 561990 562987 562980 563969
      562964 561957 561944 556908 554897 551889 547887 543882
      503854 486843 482843 479845 475852 470865 465879 460891
      450923 448929 448939 450946 448952 447955 447959 450959
      452957 455964 459967 462967 466968 468971 469973 469976
      463988 457001 454008 454014 456015 467021 476028 484040
      487046 492051 497056 501060 505064 507069 511075 516080
      527087 531088 533086 538084 544075 551063 554056 556051
      557045 557037 560034 565027
 0.01 516273 518266 518261 518252 517243 515234 507222 503214
      500208 495202 489200 484203 476204 471206 464206 459209
      454213 451215 448215 441214 436218 434221 432227 414245
      415253 419257 428260 431259 435260 450265 455266 458266
      462267 463271 461275 461277 463284 469289 477293 491299
      500301 504297 508293 510284 516273
 0.01 525709 523693 522686 520682 518676 515673 513669 513664
      510659 507656 502652 493658 489660 486665 481664 478663
      475664 473668 470673 465675 461678 459682 456687 452686
      443687 436695 438698 441702 444706 441709 439713 439717
      441728 442734 442737 440740 437743 434746 430753 424761
      422765 421771 420778 421780 428782 433780 436777 442767
      447761 453755 459754 463756 467757 472761 478765 481766
      485766 491764 494761 501754 506748 511739 521721 524714
      525709
 0.01 411143 409140 406139 403140 401143 392156 388161 383167
      379173 373177 361181 360186 362188 368193 373198 376201
      380202 382200 383196 386187 390181 395172 397167 402160
      409145 411143
 0.01 418055 419048 417045 415043 411042 407042 404044 400047
      394048 390047 389053 388056 385055 381049 378042 360020
      346010 340006 336006 333008 325010 319012 314017 309020
      305020 302019 298017 294016 274015 272019 272023 274031
      278046 279049 279055 282062 285080 286085 289088 294092
      302093 305091 307095 308104 310113 313121 319125 322124
      323120 325116 329116 332114 334117 338123 343131 346132
      349130 355128 359127 363124 349105 344097 342092 343086
      347079 353075 357073 360074 364080 368086 371092 369096
      368102 368106 369111 372120 372131 411103 410098 407095
      404101 402104 399106 396107 395102 396095 395090 399082
      404079 410073 418055
 0.01 377776 375760 375755 374749 371740 369734 364730 359728
      355723 351721 341719 330725 319732 303745 289751 279757
      269763 261768 241783 232790 230793 228798 226805 226812
      227820 230826 236834 241836 247835 259831 272826 280826
      285828 284831 281835 280838 282840 286843 289844 292847
      294853 298865 301870 304873 307875 309876 316877 323877
      328874 341858 355838 362828 365825 368820 372807 376794
      377785 377776
 0.25 543030 543015 542006 540000 541995 540981 540977 541973
      542969 543958 542945 539933 535924 530918 520902 518900
      514899 505900 501898 498894 495885 491876 487869 484866
      481864 476872 473880 471889 469895 468902 468915 468922
      469928 472936 482949 482955 482961 486967 492973 496982
      498994 499005 500018 502029 507038 512043 521045 529045
      534043 537040 543030
 0.25 507280 508267 506258 502251 493246 488240 483239 481235
      480231 476228 471228 467225 460226 454230 451235 449237
      442240 438241 440242 445243 450246 465254 480264 484270
      492276 498280 503282 506280 507280
 0.25 493692 491692 490693 489693 488694 487696 486697 485698
      485700 485702 486702 487702 489701 490701 490699 491698
      492695 493692 493692
 0.25 484684 483680 481680 479681 477684 475686 474689 473692
      472695 475696 477697 478695 480693 482690 483687 484684
 0.25 378073 378071 378073 378075 378073
 0.25 367782 366768 365756 361746 357742 354739 347736 342736
      337738 319747 304755 286766 279769 272774 257786 251792
      247798 242805 240810 239815 241820 245821 248823 253822
      271816 278815 283815 290816 295818 298821 300825 300830
      299836 299840 302848 308855 311858 315860 321861 325859
      332856 340850 346842 355828 362809 366796 367782
 0.25 329057 330052 329049 322044 317039 311036 303036 298040
      300048 303053 308058 311060 315060 323060 327059 329057
 0.50 529023 526009 525999 525989 525983 525974 524960 522954
      518950 507945 502942 500938 497932 495924 494918 494911
      490906 485904 480904 477908 477913 478916 480924 484936
      486945 487954 490959 493962 498967 500974 506006 508012
      511017 515022 520025 524026 529023
 0.50 502272 501271 500269 500268 498267 497268 498270 498271
      499272 501273 502272
 0.50 493258 491250 489246 487246 483245 480241 479236 477233
      473234 468238 465240 467245 472250 478255 484260 487259
      489260 493258
 0.50 363776 362765 361758 357750 352745 345745 339747 323753
      317755 311758 304762 298766 293771 290776 287783 287785
      288789 287792 287797 287800 284802 281804 281807 284810
      288811 294812 300814 306818 309824 308831 305837 304840
      306844 311848 316852 323853 328852 332850 338847 346837
      354824 358811 361802 363796 363784 363776
 1.00 357790 352762 349758 345756 333758 327758 322760 317762
      313766 307773 307781 306786 302795 294801 290805 292808
      304809 312812 319820 323824 324828 325836 327838 330839
      337836 346829 350822 355810 357801 357790
 1.50 351806 352801 351797 349789 348771 345766 339763 332764
      327765 325768 326773 323778 317790 311794 309796 309801
      313806 319810 328817 332822 334824 338824 348816 351806
 2.00 343779 344773 340770 337771 335776 331784 325790 317796
      315798 315801 316804 322810 330812 333814 337812 343805
      345801 344794 342789 341787 341783 343779
 3.00 334798 334797 332796 331798 332799 334798 334798

$$





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