Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
000
FXUS04 KWBC 301854
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 31/0000 UTC THRU AUG 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


EASTERN LAKES---CENTRAL APPALACHIANS---MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND

SEVERAL STREAMS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE EJECTING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BROAD TROF SITUATED OVER THE
LAKES---PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS---MID ATLANTIC
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THESE VORTS---IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES--1.5 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN--WILL SUPPORT AN ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES---CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS---MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A LOT OF
SHORTER TERM QPF DETAILS DIFFERENCES---BUT FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS--WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE HEAVIEST TOTALS FROM EASTERN PA INTO
NJ---SOUTHERN NY STATE AND SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND.  LIGHTER AREAL
AVERAGE TOTALS EXPECTED WESTWARD IN THE PERSISTENT DEFORMATION
BAND OVER THE EASTERN LAKES AND FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

SOUTHEAST---GULF COAST INTO FLORIDA

SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL STRETCH ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST---GULF COAST AND FLORIDA THIS UPCOMING PERIOD.  LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH QPF DETAILS IN WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION.  LIGHT TO MODERATE AREAL
AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED---WITH LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS LIKELY.

SOUTHEAST NE---EASTERN KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO

THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RE-STRENGTHEN AFTER 0000 UTC INTO THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING NW TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED OVERRUNNING CONVECTION FORMING TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND THEN SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD.  CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE WITH QPF DETAILS---WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR MAX PRECIP
FROM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST NE---ACROSS EASTERN KS AND INTO
SOUTHWEST MO.   MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THESE AREAS---ALONG WITH ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES AT CONVECTIVE MAX
TIME EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHERE CONVECTION BECOMES MOST ORGANIZED.

SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
WIDESPREAD SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION LIKELY IN THE REGION OF
ABOVE AVERAGE PW IN THE VICINITY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE.  CONFIDENCE
LOW WITH QPF DETAILS AND WITH RESPECT TO HOW ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WILL BECOME.  MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED---WITH
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS AND RUNOFF ISSUES WHERE
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 550042 551033 550028 548022 544019 535018 528015 513008
      508006 503005 493005 485008 480009 477011 470015 462017
      458020 455023 452025 449026 448024 447017 446014 439009
      437004 434999 432996 430993 431991 438995 445998 450000
      455001 462997 469993 473991 476987 481979 481972 477969
      474966 469964 460963 452961 444960 432960 430961 428958
      428954 424949 421947 418943 418935 418928 416924 414914
      412910 410907 408907 403906 399905 389903 381900 377899
      374896 378888 379883 379874 376866 374858 375854 377853
      387852 391854 397854 405857 408861 411863 418870 432876
      438875 440873 444870 445865 445858 446851 448848 450842
      451835 450826 449819 448814 446785 446779 447774 449766
      453743 453732 453723 451717 441704 417679 407677 397679
      393682 389684 384690 379696 373702 367710 363717 354733
      348750 331783 331789 328793 323799 320803 317806 313808
      306810 302811 298812 289811 273805 270804 268800 263797
      258796 248797 244799 242802 241806 240813 240817 242821
      251820 257824 283848 287854 288859 288864 286873 283881
      283894 284906 286916 287922 287927 280947 272962 267971
      269974 275974 284973 292970 297968 299964 303958 310943
      316936 321933 327933 330935 335935 345935 349936 354937
      357938 357941 357947 359954 361958 366966 375979 381986
      388992 404998 408000 411003 414007 416013 418017 418024
      420037 423046 426046 429045 435046 438048 443049 446048
      450044 452042 455042 464041 473042 480046 488050 497054
      516057 524057 530056 534054 544050 547049 549046 550042
 0.01 535187 537177 536169 534152 534144 532136 528123 520114
      511107 507109 502113 500130 494132 493132 491137 490143
      492150 492160 495164 497170 502173 506178 507182 505187
      501199 500206 501215 502223 505229 508232 511228 512218
      513213 514211 516201 519199 520202 522205 525206 529204
      532196 535187
 0.01 437107 437102 435095 430089 426089 425092 426094 427097
      425100 423104 420109 416112 413111 413108 412104 411100
      408094 406093 403097 395101 390102 388101 387098 386093
      389089 398085 405079 410073 412068 413061 415055 413052
      412047 409043 403037 400035 396037 389041 380044 376046
      372043 370037 366036 362033 359035 353042 349051 343052
      337051 331051 327053 325055 326058 327063 327071 323074
      320076 314077 309075 305073 302069 297063 291056 295046
      296028 295024 291021 281020 277020 274025 273035 270036
      266033 261030 258027 254024 249024 237023 232023 232027
      232037 230048 232057 233062 236066 243071 257082 263088
      268095 278109 293121 301126 309130 312130 316132 321139
      324143 327147 331146 334148 336152 337157 339168 351170
      359168 377167 385164 389162 392159 397132 404126 408124
      411127 416130 421131 424131 426127 433117 437107
 0.25 526169 526161 524153 521148 516144 513144 510142 507140
      504142 505147 507153 510158 515163 517167 522172 526169
 0.25 443745 442735 439723 436716 434712 432710 424708 420709
      416712 411718 406722 393731 383740 376744 373746 371750
      372755 374758 378764 383770 385773 386779 388782 392783
      397785 400793 405799 406803 407808 406817 408827 411835
      421844 425850 427854 431856 434854 436851 438842 439832
      439820 439810 439799 439789 439779 442759 443745
 0.25 410980 409974 408970 404963 401956 400947 399941 398938
      393932 382925 375921 368919 365921 364925 364932 365941
      368948 372965 377972 382976 387981 394982 403982 408982
      410980
 0.25 381124 380119 377119 370119 366120 362121 358120 353112
      348103 346093 341085 336082 332084 330090 327092 317088
      308084 301079 273056 257047 247043 242043 238044 234047
      233052 235057 238060 245066 252071 280093 294105 307118
      314124 318126 324127 328126 335127 346128 357129 361129
      365132 371139 375142 377142 378139 381124
 0.25 382795 380791 378791 373794 369797 365800 361805 359811
      357817 358820 361818 364815 368811 372806 376802 380798
      382795
 0.25 348771 349769 347769 346769 345770 344772 343774 343775
      342777 341779 340781 340784 342785 343784 344783 345781
      345779 346776 346774 348772 348771
 0.25 276822 274818 271816 268813 265810 262807 258806 256809
      257813 261817 263819 266821 270823 273824 276823 276822
 0.50 438748 436735 433722 430718 427715 422713 420714 414723
      407729 400735 393742 390746 388750 390755 394757 395760
      392765 394772 397776 410788 416796 420801 424791 425784
      425779 428774 431770 436763 438754 438748
 0.50 400970 401966 400963 398959 395953 394947 389938 382931
      378927 373926 369929 368936 369944 371949 374961 376966
      379970 383973 388974 394975 398973 400970
 0.50 377128 375125 375126 376128 377128 377128
 0.50 352122 351115 348110 346105 344098 342093 339088 335088
      335090 336096 337103 339109 342114 347118 350122 352122
 0.50 324117 326109 323103 316095 307091 302087 299083 282070
      273064 265058 256053 251050 245049 238049 238052 239055
      246062 262076 270083 278089 288094 293098 296101 303109
      311116 319120 323119 324117
 0.50 266814 264813 264812 263813 263815 264815 266816 266814
 1.00 429750 429738 427734 425731 421725 417726 414729 409733
      404739 400744 397748 399751 403754 405757 411759 418761
      426758 428755 429750 429750
 1.00 393959 391952 389947 386943 381938 377936 373936 371938
      371941 373943 375949 377955 380960 384963 389966 391965
      393961 393959
 1.00 314107 314105 312103 310102 309102 309104 310107 311108
      313108 314107
 1.00 281082 280080 279078 277075 275073 273072 271070 267068
      266068 263068 264070 265072 267074 270077 272079 274080
      276082 279083 281082
 1.50 422749 423744 421740 419738 417736 414737 410739 409742
      409743 411747 413748 415749 417750 421751 422749
 1.50 386954 386952 386951 386949 384948 383947 382946 380946
      379945 378945 377947 378949 379952 380954 382955 384955
      386954 386954

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.