Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 170656
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 17/1200 UTC THRU SEP 18/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LIKELY DAY 1 ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CIRCULATION OF ODILE AND WELL TO THE EAST OF THIS
CIRCULATION IN THE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS THAT WILL STRETCH
FROM SOUTHERN CA/SOUTHERN NV---EASTWARD INTO AZ---NM AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  OBSERVED PW VALUES ACROSS THESE AREAS ARE NEAR
OR ABOVE THE 99 PERCENTILE FOR SEPTEMBER---WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD TO THESE VALUES.  THERE IS A
STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AZ---SOUTHERN NM---LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ACROSS
THESE AREAS.  FARTHER TO THE EAST FROM THESE AREAS--THERE IS MORE
MODEL SPREAD WITH HOW QUICKLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE HI RES MODELS ARE MORE EMPHATIC ACROSS
THIS AREA---BUT STILL HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT NORTH-SOUTH
DIFFERENCES WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE AXES.  CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
HERE--BUT WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PW AXIS AND MODEL
FORECASTS OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAXIMUM IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS---FAVOR
THE HI RES IDEA OF SPREADING HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EASTWARD QUICKER.  WHILE MODELS DO NOT DEPICT MUCH
PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE ANOMALOUS PW AXIS
FROM SOUTHERN CA INTO SOUTHERN NV AND NW AZ---SCATTERED CONVECTION
LIKELY AGAIN ACROSS THESE AREAS--WITH LOCALLY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.


COASTAL CAROLINAS

A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DAY 1.
ANOTHER DAY OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN AN AXIS OF INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  PW VALUES HAVE LOWERED FROM
THE PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED
SOUTHWARD--BUT REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE 1.50-1.75"
RANGE.  WITH WELL DEFINED FRONTAL/PRE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE FORECAST
ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST---ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY TO
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS.

CENTRAL TO SOUTH FL

THE MAX PW AXIS THAT HAD BEEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA
DAY 1.  THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE
 CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS.

EASTERN KS---SOUTHERN MO--NORTHEAST OK INTO NORTHERN AR

THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SPAWN TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.  ONE ROUND EARLY DAY 1---WITH A SECOND
LATE DAY 1 IN THE EARLY HOURS OF THURSDAY.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT
GREAT WITH THE MAX AXIS---BUT THERE IS A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KS INTO SOUTHERN MO---FAR NORTHEAST OK
AND INTO NORTHERN AR.  WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
TOTALS POSSIBLE FROM ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD IN
THIS AXIS.

COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA

THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC UPPER TROF WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CA REGION.   THE ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN PARALLEL TO THE COAST---KEEPING
PRECIPITATION FROM MOVING VERY FAR INLAND AND CONFINED TO COASTAL
SECTIONS FROM NORTHERN CA INTO THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODE CONSENSUS IS FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS--WITH THE NORTHWEST
CA MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY TOTALS WHERE THE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE THE GREATEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 18/12Z
 0.01 355282 379290 387293 394296 406301 430310 437313 443313
      448312 453310 460302 463297 464289 462276 456263 456259
      460260 464259 470261 473265 484275 488278 493278 502277
      509272 516261 517253 516246 512233 508223 504217 499213
      488208 479208 474210 470211 460215 457216 454216 450221
      443220 439220 429221 420225 417222 417218 410216 398212
      395212 397217 402222 400224 397224 392227 388231 387235
      385239 382242 379247 376250 371254 365256 357263 351269
      349274 350278
 0.01 510666 509656 507650 502639 498633 495629 489628 484630
      477640 474644 472650 470656 470663 468681 465693 463698
      462703 461712 461720 456734 455742 453747 449758 448764
      448772 449784 451792 454807 457820 462837 463856 467886
      471903 475917 479917 484914 489906 490904 490898 490889
      490866 490833 491824 490813 491805 490795 488779 489767
      495735 501710 502701 504694 507680 509674 510666
 0.01 493235 491233 490230 488229 486226 484223 483220 479221
      478223 479226 480229 481231 483235 486238 489239 492238
      493235
 0.01 390116 390114 388113 385115 374114 369112 368108 365099
      362094 360089 360086 364078 366075 368073 369077 372084
      375089 378089 383081 379073 375069 370066 368064 370061
      372056 368049 364046 362042 348031 345023 341016 338009
      335004 335999 332982 330978 330971 341967 351963 363961
      368962 372964 378970 384976 388977 391975 395965 395957
      394954 398946 399942 398937 385906 380898 377894 373891
      369889 364890 358892 350892 347890 344892 340895 340899
      340912 341919 342925 343931 340934 336935 334936 332934
      325932 319928 310917 304912 302910 300905 297897 295885
      295878 296872 297860 301839 302834 308833 313826 319824
      324823 334824 338824 341822 344814 352803 355795 357785
      360775 362765 352742 347736 340730 333727 328726 322727
      308737 298749 290763 288766 285766 281763 276761 271762
      265767 258776 254787 253791 254797 255801 254805 251808
      250813 249818 250824 251836 253847 252855 251865 254873
      257881 259887 261891 262897 266917 270927 272933 273936
      272939 268959 262966 260970 259976 259981 263983 267985
      272985 276987 281987 287991 291996 294002 298010 299021
      300031 299037 297041 293043 286043 273042 268041 264043
      259046 257052 255056 257059 266063 267073 270081 273089
      278095 273110 275117 278123 286140 288145 290150 294153
      299157 306159 311158 314155 326144 337181 339183 342184
      345180 349169 353166 357164 363164 368162 371161 373158
      369149 368144 368141 370138 374132 379126 382123 390116
 0.25 510257 511252 511249 510245 508243 505241 504244 504249
      504250 502251 503254 505256 507256 508257 510257
 0.25 496662 495658 493656 487653 483656 482660 479670 469706
      464745 461762 460775 459785 461797 463806 465821 466831
      468842 470851 472852 475852 478850 481845 481842 481829
      481818 479803 477792 476784 475774 476761 478752 481733
      485724 487715 491699 494688 495678 496662
 0.25 444294 443289 441286 434278 428271 424266 423261 422256
      422252 425247 426244 424242 416238 409236 404235 401238
      399243 396247 392249 388251 386256 379262 373266 368269
      370272 386284 391287 396289 406291 412291 416293 428298
      437298 442296 444294
 0.25 388959 386953 388944 389937 387929 384924 380918 374909
      370906 366906 364908 363915 361922 355932 353938 354945
      357950 363953 368954 372958 376962 380963 384962 388959
 0.25 350123 351115 349109 349105 350100 351095 352079 352069
      351062 346050 344037 343032 340028 336023 327014 323010
      322005 318992 314979 311971 310962 307947 303937 296922
      290911 286906 282903 280901 277902 275906 277914 281919
      281929 281935 281952 282958 285963 289976 292984 295989
      300994 304998 308009 309017 309025 308031 308037 313042
      313050 313058 311065 309070 302083 298089 293094 288097
      285102 286110 287115 289131 290139 294145 298148 305151
      312149 315145 317136 318132 320130 331123 336123 340124
      345126 348126 350123
 0.25 340760 339756 338754 334750 330746 324743 319744 313746
      309749 306754 302766 300770 296775 295781 298783 301782
      307780 312777 323771 328769 333772 337773 338771 339766
      338764 340760
 0.25 339790 338782 337778 335778 331781 327784 324790 322795
      322803 321805 324807 329804 333800 337795 339790
 0.25 292797 292793 291791 286793 280792 277793 271794 268794
      264796 261801 262807 260810 256813 255818 256830 261838
      264864 266874 267879 269884 273887 276888 280885 282881
      283873 281865 281858 280846 282833 285825 288815 292797
 0.50 487683 487681 487678 486676 484677 483679 483680 481682
      481683 480685 480686 479688 479690 479691 479693 480695
      481695 482696 483697 484694 485694 486691 486689 487686
      487685 487683
 0.50 483700 482699 480700 480701 481702 482701 483700
 0.50 482705 481704 479704 478706 477707 476708 476710 475712
      474715 475717 476718 477717 477716 478714 479713 480711
      481708 482705
 0.50 429286 428284 427281 425279 423277 420275 419273 416270
      414269 414270 414274 413279 413283 415285 418287 421288
      425289 427288 429286
 0.50 412261 412259 412257 411255 411254 410253 408252 406252
      406253 404254 403254 404255 404257 405258 407259 408260
      408261 410262 412261
 0.50 395264 395262 395261 394259 394258 393257 392258 390259
      390260 389262 388264 389265 391266 393266 394265 395264
      395264
 0.50 385940 384935 382930 380927 377923 371918 368919 366923
      360930 357938 358942 361945 368951 373956 377959 380957
      382945 385940
 0.50 347099 347083 347073 346064 338036 330028 325022 320019
      315022 312028 310032 312036 318039 319042 319046 318052
      314071 312079 310084 300093 295097 292101 290104 289109
      289117 291131 293138 297143 303146 307146 314132 322123
      327119 334117 344114 347099
 0.50 316001 315996 315994 314990 313988 312983 311981 309979
      306979 306980 307983 308988 309990 309994 310996 311000
      313003 314003 316001
 0.50 305964 304956 301948 298941 294935 291933 288935 286943
      285953 287960 290966 294972 297977 301977 303973 305966
      305964
 0.50 280805 277801 272800 268799 268801 272803 274807 269814
      266818 261819 261824 264829 266843 268847 270847 271845
      275835 277824 278811 278807 280805
 1.00 374943 373940 373938 372936 371936 370936 369936 370937
      370938 371940 371942 372943 373945 374943
 1.00 342102 343095 342089 342076 337052 335047 331045 326044
      323048 321053 320059 319076 318083 316086 309094 301099
      297102 294107 292111 292117 292124 294130 298137 303140
      307138 312130 319121 325115 334110 339106 342102
 1.50 339100 340093 339087 338076 333067 331064 335060 335057
      334054 332051 327049 323052 323057 325061 326066 324069
      322074 320084 314092 308098 301104 297107 295111 294117
      294121 295126 297130 300135 304136 309130 315122 321115
      329109 334106 339100
 2.00 337097 338088 336080 334075 332072 327072 324076 321085
      319090 314095 305104 297113 296118 297123 299126 304129
      308128 310126 318116 328107 332104 336099 337097
 2.00 331055 330055 329053 328053 327054 325053 325055 327057
      328058 330057 331055
 3.00 333095 334089 334083 332079 330078 327078 323087 322092
      320096 314102 308109 303116 306122 310122 313118 318112
      324104 331099 333095

$$




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