Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
000
FXUS04 KWBC 190716
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
315 AM EDT SUN MAR 19 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 19/1200 UTC THRU MAR 20/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...

THE COMPACT UPPER TROUGH (CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW) WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY AS IT PUSHES OFF THE COAST LATER TODAY. COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE AS A RESULT...AS THE SHORTENING WAVELENGTH
OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE (VORT LOBE) RESULTS IN A SECONDARY CLOSED 500 MB
CENTER JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS EVOLUTION ALOFT WILL
HELP KEEP THE SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THAN
OTHERWISE... HOWEVER THE NON-NAM MODEL CONSENSUS...WHILE STILL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK (40N/70W)...STILL PASSES 125-150 MILES ESE
OF NANTUCKET. WPC UTILIZED A NON-NAM ENSEMBLE WITH THE QPF...WHICH
INCLUDED THE PARALLEL NAM AS ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK IS SOMEWHAT
BETTER CLUSTERED (FARTHER EAST) WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THIS
RESULTED IN 24 HOUR AMOUNTS BETWEEN .25 TO < 0.50 INCH ACROSS CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND...WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC`S ENSEMBLE
BIAS-CORRECTED QPF. FOR FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING THE SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL OVER THESE LOCATIONS...PLEASE REFER TO THE QPFHSD.

...WESTERN U.S....

THE ELONGATED AXIS OF MODESTLY ANOMALOUS PWS (BETWEEN 1-1.25" JUST
OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST) WILL LINGER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH
THE MOISTURE ANOMALIES EXTENDING ENE INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ALONG WITH A
RECYCLING (SECONDARY) WARM CONVEYOR BELT AS THE CURRENT TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC GETS REINFORCED BY THE NEXT SYSTEM
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED PCPN ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
TERRAIN FROM NORTHERN CA...CENTRAL ID...SOUTH-CENTRAL MT...AND
NORTHWEST WY. WHILE WELL DEPICTED OVER THE MORE ELEVATED TERRAIN
(GIVEN THE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT)...THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
FOCUS THE HIGHER QPF ALONG AN AXIS OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
FORCING VIA THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THE UPSHOT IS A
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (INCLUDING HIGH-RES) OF AREAL-AVERAGE
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCH OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-1.0".

HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 468621 469630 469637 465648 460659 454668 447677 441686
      436695 429704 420711 412716 401720 397719 394715 393711
      394704 399694 399688 395684 389684 384687 377696 376701
      375707 376723 378734 388757 385768 382773 379776 372777
      367776 362776 358772 355768 352764 347762 341762 336762
      331759 328757 324752 322747 321740 320731 322728 329725
      333723 337720 341716 344705 348695 354685 360677 367670
      374662 389647
 0.01 536204 538200 537196 536191 534182 530172 524166 516165
      512165 509167 507172 508177 509183 512186 516193 522200
      528207 531208 534206 536204
 0.01 506263 507254 508246 507240 505234 500225 499218 496213
      492211 488213 488221 489226 493231 496236 496242 490242
      487245 487249 491259 493264 498267 503266 506263
 0.01 498829 495811 494804 490797 486793 482791 477789 472791
      460813 454823 450828 447834 440844 437849 434852 429857
      421857 410854 399850 395853 391856 391861 392866 391869
      386879 379891 377896 376899 372900 369903 368907 367914
      369920 374932 374941 373948 375954 380957 386957 391955
      394949 396942 398943 398945 400948 403952 405954 409954
      412954 414952 418949 423935 424928 425921 428914 429907
      432902 436897 445890 448889 449887 456888 460891 465893
      470895 472893 475893 479889 481882 481867 493846 496837
      496832 498829
 0.01 356283 370288 374289 379290 385291 389291 400291 405290
      410288 415286 419283 426277 432270 439261 441256 443247
      443241 441235 439230 438227 438222 442219 449219 441215
      438210 439202 443204 446204 446201 460182 463179 463176
      458176 455175 456171 460168 463163 464154 464148 461143
      462138 464122 464115 466111 470106 468100 470091 470082
      469075 471068 472050 472043 471036 470030 467025 459019
      455017 451020 450028 448034 445034 444032 442029 438033
      439037 441043 443046 448049 451055 452063 450070 445070
      442068 440069 439072 444076 451085 452087 451092 446093
      437091 435093 432092 428089 426088 426090 427095 429100
      427103 422106 423112 419115 420119 422120 421124 420131
      418136 417143 413159 411167 409173 404181 404184 407184
      410183 414180 417175 421161 421156 422147 424142 426134
      427129 431124 435121 441120 444123 443126 440132 436133
      432137 430152 434163 433172 429177 414188 409198 406203
      405206 402206 395204 389203 389207 391211 395216 396218
      395221 391223 384223 382225 383229 384234 383238 379242
      348266 346270 347274 353281
 0.01 424798 423794 423791 421794 420797 420799 418802 417806
      417809 416811 416814 418813 419811 421808 422804 422801
      424798
 0.01 414786 413781 409782 403785 398789 391792 384797 380802
      376810 371815 369817 366816 363816 361818 364818 366816
      370824 372819 374816 377814 381816 385809 395798 399797
      400795 402791 405790 411785 414786
 0.01 357834 357832 355830 353830 353831 353833 353835 355837
      357835 357834
 0.01 345941 345936 343934 340930 332921 324915 322913 319913
      312913 308913 304911 301909 295907 293908 292910 293912
      293916 295918 297923 299926 301927 303929 306929 310929
      314930 319930 323931 326932 330937 334941 337943 343943
      345941
 0.01 257008 257002 255999 251997 246997 242996 237995 234997
      236001 240002 244004 248006 250010 250014 254013 256009
      257008
 0.01 254982 253977 250976 246976 241976 237978 233979 233984
      237987 240988 246988 250988 252984 254982
 0.25 451627 454631 456638 455644 454649 451657 447665 438681
      434688 428695 421701 417702 413701 410696 410688 409683
      406682 403678 401673 398671 394671 387675 381681 376687
      372695 369703 368708 369714 370727 370738 370743 368748
      365746 363748 358749 347751 342751 338750 336747 334742
      334732 337729 341729 346723 348720 350715 352712 355710
      360702 364695 372681 381666 386659 391653 397647 403642
 0.25 466095 464089 461086 457096 453097 451095 450094 448097
      442096 438095 437098 435097 432098 433100 432104 430110
      431113 441113 446115 450114 453114 455112 459113 462110
      464104 464097 466095
 0.25 455137 453136 452136 453138 455137 455137
 0.25 450161 450156 451154 450151 447151 443150 440150 438152
      438154 439158 440161 442163 443164 445164 449163 450161
 0.25 428245 427239 424235 424230 425225 422224 419226 416222
      415216 411217 408221 406226 403228 397237 394242 392246
      392250 390252 385253 378256 370261 363266 360270 357274
      360278 364280 375281 383279 391276 397271 405265 411259
      418253 425249 428245
 0.25 445072 443071 442072 443072 445073 445072
 0.25 405901 404898 402896 401894 397893 396895 394897 390898
      388899 389903 390905 394905 398904 399903 402903 405903
      405901
 0.25 371761 371759 370757 369756 368755 367753 365753 364753
      363756 363758 364760 366762 368762 370762 371761
 0.50 438631 446630 449631 451634 451644 448653 442667 435681
      430687 425691 417694 415692 413687 406672 404669 400667
      395664 395658 397656 403651 410646 416642 422638 429634
 0.50 463104 462101 461101 460100 459101 459103 459105 461106
      463104
 0.50 445111 445108 444107 443106 442105 441106 440106 439108
      440109 442110 443112 445111
 0.50 418232 417231 415232 413233 412233 411234 410235 410237
      410238 412238 413238 414238 416237 417235 418233 418232
 0.50 383269 384265 382263 379262 377263 375264 373266 370268
      368272 369276 373276 375276 378275 380273 382271 383269
 0.50 367723 365715 362713 358713 355719 351725 345730 343732
      342737 344742 346744 349745 354745 360741 366737 368733
      368728 367723
 1.00 445641 442637 440638 432644 427645 423648 418655 417660
      418667 418679 420681 424679 427676 430677 433672 437662
      440653 444644 445641
 1.00 356732 355732 354731 352731 350733 349734 349736 351737
      353737 354736 356734 356732

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.