Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 200618
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
217 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 20/1200 UTC THRU JUL 21/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...NORTHERN PLAINS / UPPER MIDWEST EASTWARD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
AND NE...

FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATRN WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF A FAIRLY
STG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY REGION AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLES SWD ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WLYS.
MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH EARLY MCS THAT AFFECTED PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST WED NIGHT AND SUSPECT MODELS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE WITH
CONVECTIVE DVLPMENT/TIMING DURING THE DAY 1 PD TODAY ALONG THE
BNDRY FROM PARTS OF NEB/SD EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO PARTS OF
THE NRN MID ATLC/NE.  EARLY IN THE PD...REMNANT MCS TIED MORE TO
WEAK SYNOPTIC WAVE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN AREA OF MDT CONVECTIVE
RAINS THROUGH PARTS OF LOWER MI INTO WRN NY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
A WEAKENING AREA OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY DROP SEWD THROUGH PARTS OF
IL/IN AND WRN OH.  BY LATE THUR/THUR EVENING...MODELS SHOW SOME
VERY IMPRESSIVE POOLING OF PWS AOA 2 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4 THSD
J/KG.  DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MID/UPR FORCING AT THAT
TIME...THE THERMO/MSTR PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION THAT
DVLPS COULD HAVE THE POTNL TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY WITH IMPRESSIVE
RAIN RATES THAT COULD LEAD TO RUNOFF ISSUES ACRS THE AREA.   HAVE
LEANED A BIT CLOSER TO SOME OF THE WETTER SOLNS INCLUDING THE NAM
CONUS NEST GIVEN THE ABOVE.   ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY AND REMNANT
MCVS WORKING EWD FROM THE CNTL HI PLAINS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NEB/SD EWD INTO IA/SRN MN
THUR NIGHT PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH
SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS GIVEN MODEST MODEL QPF
SPREAD HERE.  LIKEWISE PATRN HAS THE POTNL TO SUPPORT LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN/POTNL MCS DVLPMENT THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN
SPOTS.

...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...

NOT MUCH CHANGE ACROSS THIS AREA MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND WEAK EMBDD
IMPULSES/MCVS DRAWN NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY THE STRONG
UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE CNTL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS AZ
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...WITH HIGH PW ANOMALIES EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS AND PSBL FLASH FLOODING IN SPOTS.

SE/FL/ERN GULF COAST...

SCTD DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE
COASTAL SE/ERN GULF COAST AND THE FL PENINSULA THIS PD WITH ACTIVE
SEA BREEZES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING PROVIDING MAIN TRIGGERS FOR
DVLPMENT.  HI PWS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
HEAVIEST AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OVER CNTL/SRN FL ESPECIALLY OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS WITH CONVERGENT SEA BREEZES DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SULLIVAN

24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 533190 535177 536163 536156 534152 532149 528145 523141
      519140 516137 512135 509131 505124 503121 500118 492117
      490120 491125 491132 492137 497154 498159 497166 495171
      492176 489183 489188 490193 490199 488205 482210 480212
      475212 472213 469212 453215 451217 452220 453223 457224
      460228 458233 458237 461241 467246 473252 481257 489260
      496262 502259 508253 512244 513239 515235 520229 525220
      528210 533190
 0.01 505070 503047 499023 498015 498008 500003 501998 504988
      504975 501961 498949 496944 492939 489934 484934 482937
      480942 476953 473956 468957 462957 457954 453948 450940
      449935 446930 442920 438911 433904 428895 431887 434880
      438877 441878 446876 452869 458861 461857 463854 463839
      463832 463824 462812 458804 457798 458793 459768 460754
      461749 462745 466735 470727 473721 474714 475708 474700
      467706 463715 460718 459724 457727 455727 453724 453721
      453715 451711 449707 445703 440696 439692 440688 447670
      446662 444657 439652 430657 423663 407679 402686 399690
      399696 402710 400715 400721 402735 402741 401746 396762
      394767 392766 387774 383784 380792 377814 377819 380826
      383832 384837 388846 392857 397868 399873 399881 404903
      409921 414943 416956 419967 421977 420988 417000 412009
      407019 404024 402028 397035 394038 395043 393048 390053
      382058 374061 369061 368058 369056 372053 368052 358051
      354058 357059 357062 358067 369078 368081 365080 361078
      355077 352074 348065 343059 340055 335053 328051 322048
      308040 304044 304045 307054 307059 303057 299054 296050
      289045 285042 284039 283033 283028 277024 272019 272023
      271039 269044 268050 264053 258051 252050 248052 243057
      242060 246062 251069 263078 270084 275091 280098 285104
      290112 294118 305124 309126 315128 319129 322128 327125
      332126 338127 342129 343133 347137 355140 365138 367139
      366141 365144 360149 356154 359157 363159 365157 367152
      371150 377146 385161 393158 397157 399153 403145 404139
      403135 403130 406127 410123 415122 419119 424118 427123
      431121 434119 439118 448117
 0.01 448117 452115 453111 452107 454101 455093 453088 447086
      442084 441080 443077 446076 448078 448075 450073 454069
      456067 459069 462068 464063 467063 475054 475052 478050
      483052 488055 491063 495074 500073 505070
 0.01 469004 465001 462999 457001 453003 450005 448010 451015
      454017 459015 463013 465010 467006 469004
 0.01 387753 385753 384754 383754 384756 385754 387754 387753
 0.01 387104 384102 383101 379099 378097 376094 373095 372100
      371102 372104 375106 379106 382106 384105 387104
 0.01 384756 382756 380756 380757 382757 384756
 0.01 379759 377759 375760 374762 374763 373765 372767 372770
      373770 375772 376769 376767 376764 377762 378762 379760
      379759
 0.01 365847 362842 357837 356834 357832 362825 363820 360821
      358823 354824 352826 347830 344834 343842 342847 341850
      336855 331858 326863 327868 328872 332872 338871 344867
      350864 352863 354862 357863 360861 363854 363850 365847
 0.01 353775 353767 351766 349769 345773 341768 339765 338759
      336749 332745 328745 325747 278773 252781 246784 241787
      237794 236797 236802 238818 241823 245827 252828 256829
      259831 268839 271844 272853 273871 274892 275901 276908
      281919 288930 293935 291943 289951 288958 284971 284975
      286977 290974 294958 299943 300937 302935 302930 301921
      303914 303911 305910 309912 310910 310904 310894 311888
      318879 321873 321868 319866 316860 317852 325840 331831
      334826 337820 344806 346799 348794 353775
 0.01 336165 332163 329161 324159 321156 315156 312154 308153
      310156 314159 318161 321164 326165 330166 334165 336165
 0.01 343912 341911 338913 335915 333917 333919 332921 332926
      330928 330930 332932 334930 334928 335926 335921 337919
      339917 342915 343912
 0.01 316809 315807 313807 311807 309807 307806 305806 304806
      302807 301808 302809 304810 306810 308811 310811 311810
      313810 315810 316809
 0.01 294899 294897 294895 294893 293891 291893 290895 290897
      290899 290902 290904 290906 290908 291910 292911 293910
      293908 293906 293904 293901 294899
 0.25 491000 491990 490982 489977 487976 484975 481977 475978
      472977 469978 470984 474988 479990 480999 483004 488005
      491000
 0.25 448819 448813 447805 443797 438786 436780 435774 432764
      429753 425749 423744 420742 414743 413746 412753 414766
      415774 414780 408787 402794 400794 397791 392790 390796
      388799 386799 386805 388810 390815 392820 393834 394842
      395849 397859 400868 404880 406885 407892 410902 411907
      413910 416907 418901 422891 422887 422880 420868 416857
      414844 413838 414832 415822 417816 420811 422813 422820
      430839 432844 434845 435830 436827 438826 443828 446828
      447823 448819
 0.25 432672 431670 431669 429670 428671 426673 426674 425675
      424677 424679 424681 425684 426686 428687 430685 431682
      431681 431680 432677 432675 432673 432672
 0.25 441108 442105 441101 439098 436095 431092 428089 426089
      426094 426101 423105 423107 428109 432108 435107 439108
      441108
 0.25 433735 433732 432732 431730 431728 431726 430723 429722
      428723 428724 427726 427729 428731 427733 427734 426736
      426739 427741 428741 430742 432741 432740 433737 433735
 0.25 436999 436992 436980 435959 433940 432932 429926 426919
      422917 421919 421924 421933 421954 421959 422964 424973
      426980 426990 425011 427014 430014 434008 436999
 0.25 417693 416689 415686 414684 410685 409688 408691 408694
      408698 409702 410705 413705 415703 416700 417695 417693
 0.25 410732 410730 410728 409728 408731 409733 410733 410732
 0.25 417064 416062 414061 412061 411061 409063 409064 408065
      408066 410068 412069 414069 414068 415068 417066 417065
      417064
 0.25 410110 411104 411098 408094 406098 404104 402108 398108
      394110 391112 385113 379117 377121 378126 382127 386125
      392121 399117 402114 406114 410110
 0.25 360120 359115 355111 348103 349098 347093 344089 341084
      338080 334077 327075 321077 319078 313075 302070 291067
      285066 278068 273069 272075 278084 292100 298107 306115
      310117 316120 322118 326115 330113 333113 336115 340118
      345120 348123 353125 358123 360120
 0.25 334058 332057 330057 328057 328058 330058 332059 334058
      334058
 0.25 323767 321765 320766 318767 318768 316770 318770 320770
      322769 323767 323767
 0.25 292797 293792 291790 283788 279786 270785 264788 259793
      255797 252802 250808 254814 257820 261824 267822 274824
      283831 289833 292833 291828 290826 292824 292821 291818
      290801 292797
 0.50 441820 440813 437806 433792 431784 430776 426760 423756
      420755 418759 420768 422775 425794 425799 425808 425817
      427824 432838 433838 433833 433823 437820 441820
 0.50 431992 431990 432987 432985 431983 430980 430978 429977
      428975 428973 428975 428976 429978 429980 429983 429984
      430985 430987 429990 430992 431994 431992
 0.50 432961 433954 432947 431940 430935 428931 426931 424935
      424942 424947 426954 428959 430962 432961
 0.50 420886 419876 416865 413858 410847 410835 411825 413816
      415805 412801 409800 406802 403804 398805 394807 393813
      394819 396844 398853 401864 406882 408892 412901 414899
      415893 415888 420887 420886
 0.50 407105 408103 409100 408098 407100 407103 407105 407105
 0.50 351115 351114 350112 349112 348110 346110 346109 344109
      342108 341107 339107 337108 337110 338111 340112 342112
      344112 346113 347114 349115 351117 351115
 0.50 343103 343098 341094 339091 337086 334083 332083 331086
      333089 335093 334097 336102 339104 341104 343103
 0.50 329109 329105 327102 323098 320093 315088 310083 306078
      301075 295072 287072 280074 283080 287085 298091 302095
      299101 301106 306110 311114 315115 318114 320111 324112
      329109
 0.50 285798 284793 280791 275791 269793 262798 256803 254805
      255810 260810 264812 271815 279818 283819 285819 286816
      285811 282806 280805 278802 281801 285798
 1.00 409812 405814 403820 402825 400816 396816 397825 399830
      403834 405838 407839 407831 408824 409815 409812
 1.00 412891 412882 412873 411863 408859 404855 401850 401856
      403862 405868 407875 409884 411891 412891

$$




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