Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 140950
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
548 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 14/1200 UTC THRU APR 17/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

UPDATE..MOST CHANGES MADE BTWN THE PRELIM AND FINAL DAY1 QPF WERE
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA..IN PARTICULAR..OVR THE LWR MS
VLY AND ERN TX.

...GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE GULF COAST...

THE SHRTWV TROF NOW OVR THE MS VLY IS FCST TO BE EJECTED RAPIDLY
NEWD IN RESPONSE TO ADNL ENERGY CARVING OUT A STG UPPER TROF OVR
THE CNTRL U.S. BY THIS EVNG.  DIMINISHING PCPN AMTS ARE EXPECTED
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PD WITH THE EXITING 1ST SYSTEM WITH THE
MOST ORGANIZED ACTVTY CONCENTRATED INVOF THE GREAT LAKES WERE THE
BEST DYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD BE IN PLACE..WHILE A 2ND AREA OF
CONCENTRATED SHWRS OCCURS INVOF THE CNTRL GULF STATES AIDED BY
FVBL DIV FLOW ALOFT AND LLVL INFLOW INTO BNDRYS BEING SET UP BY
OVRNGT CNVCTN THERE.

BY THE AFTN..THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHARPENING UP CNTRL U.S. UPPER
TROF WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR WITH SHWRS REDVLPNG ALONG THE FRONTAL
BAND THE WILL BE STRETCHED FM NNE TO SSW ACROSS THE AREA.   THE
BEST MSTR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONCENTRATED INVOF THE CNTRL GULF
STATES/TN VLY WHERE STG MSTR FLUX INTO THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR HVY TOTALS AS AGAIN STGLY
JET DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY.  WITH TIME..SHWR ACTVTY SHOULD ALSO
INTENSIFY FARTHER TO THE NORTH INVOF THE FRONT AS DAYTIME HEATING
AIDS CNVCTV DVLPMNT AHEAD OF THE CDFNT AS HGT FALLS GRADUALLY TAKE
PLACE.  A 2ND AXIS OF LGTR PCPN TOTALS IS ALSO  LIKELY FARTHER TO
THE NORTH AND WEST BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY ALONG AN AXIS OF STG MID
LVL SHEAR.

MODEL QPFS ARE FOR THE MOST PART ARE IN DECENT ACCORD HANDLING THE
QPF ASOCTD WITH THE ABOVE SYSTEMS/SCENARIOS THOUGH DIFFERENCES DO
EXIST WITH DETAILS. THE UKMET SEEMED A VRY REASONABLE COMPROMISE
BTWN MOST MODEL QPFS AND MAINTAINED GD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.  THE
GFS WAS FOR THE MOST PART WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET
THOUGH IT DID SEEM LACKING WITH AMTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COAST WHERE MOST NON NCEP GUIDANCE WERE INDCTG HEAVIER PCPN TOTALS.


DAY 2/3...


...EAST COAST...

BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS SOUTHWARD
TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OUT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG
THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.  UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL
PARALLEL THE BOUNDARY WITH WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 150 KNOTS AT
TIMES.  MAXIMUM QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT WITH A FEW
PLACES OVER THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS NEAR 1.50 INCHES ... AIDED
BY THE STRONG JET.  THE MAXIMUM QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE NEAR 1.40 INCHES.  WPC USED A BLEND OF
ECMWF AND THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED AS A STARTING POINT
FOR THE MANUAL QPF.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...

SHORTWAVE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD
TO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THURSDAY MORNING.  THE ENERGY WILL
CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OUT OVER THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY.  THE
ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ADVANCE AS FAR SOUTHWARD AS THE U.
S./MEXICAN BORDER WITH ANOTHER PORTION OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY
MORNING TOO.  MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  ON WEDNESDAY ...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO FLOW NORTHWARD OVER
THE PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY.
MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 INCHES WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY.  MAXIMUM QPF WILL BE OVER THE FAVORED
OROGRAPHIC AREAS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ... NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
... AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH MAXIMUM QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 0.50 INCHES.  ADDITIONALLY ... UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
WILL AID IN PRODUCING MAXIMUM QPF NEAR 1.00 INCHES OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.   WPC USED A BLEND OF
ECMWF AND THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED AS A STARTING POINT
FOR THE MANUAL QPF.


KORTY/ZIEGENFELDER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 15/12Z
 0.01 524261 507240 505236 502230 500222 499213 496208 490205
      478207 474209 469212 464224 465227 467228 471233 471239
      473242 477246 480248 483247 484243 484233 485231 488229
      492234 495240 498245 501249 502253 502256 500258 494256
      488267 483280 481288 483295 487298 492299 504297 510293
      511292 513288 516285
 0.01 520668 516664 511662 508663 506662 501663 485668 473676
      469681 466688 460696 455702 435727 431732 428731 430727
      431722 432715 426717 421718 419720 412725 408729 403734
      398740 391745 385748 378752 369754 366753 366750 368746
      368740 365739 355746 347753 342757 339759 335760 328762
      321766 315770 310775 305781 301783 296784 289787 284790
      280794 281798 282803 283806 289810 285811 282811 278813
      271814 270816 271818 276822 281827 278832 268843 260854
      253866 251876 250880 250885 254891 258895 260901 262907
      262916 261925 255938 251953 248961 249964 251966 254968
      253970 252976 252987 257993 261995 266996 267998 267003
      271005 275002 279999 288989 292987 295988 301983 306978
      310971 314966 321962 327959 332954 344943 352934 355931
      360934 360940 359943 359947 361952 357968 353976 348982
      346989 342995 338012 341013 344011 353007 355002 359997
      370992 375988 378982 384969 386965 386961 390954 394946
      398940 408927 412922 415918 419914 422912 426905 429900
      431894 436890 439888 441888 442891 443897 446897 454896
      460893 464888 469881 473873 488841 498817 508786 512769
      514759 516751 521733 523721 525709 527698 525682
 0.01 492010 492004 490000 485994 479991 475989 470988 455983
      451976 445970 438966 434965 430966 429969 429974 431978
      434983 438989 445990 448991 449995 455003 466011 475013
      478015 483015 489015 492010
 0.01 383054 381048 380046 376045 369044 362045 358047 357051
      358055 365055 368056 369059 373064 374065 377063 380058
      383054
 0.25 518273 518268 516263 513260 509259 509265 508270 503270
      501270 501275 503279 506282 508279 512277 515276 518273
 0.25 504743 504736 503728 500718 498713 496704 495699 492697
      487697 482700 475708 467716 459725 449738 443745 435751
      428760 422769 417776 412779 406781 402781 399777 399771
      401768 404759 403756 401757 397761 390768 383773 361783
      342786 339789 337792 338795 339802 338808 333817 330820
      325824 320826 314828 302830 295835 290840 285847 280854
      271874 273879 276882 278887 277894 273911 271921 272927
      273933 277942 281943 287942 291941 295944 297950 295956
      295961 297966 300967 303966 309959 315952 329939 336931
      343922 347915 351909 358903 365897 382886 400874 423848
      430843 435839 439837 442837 452838 456840 463841 467840
      471837 473834 476831 485814 494794 498781 500775 502767
      503756 504743
 0.25 340779 340775 339772 336773 333775 331776 328778 327780
      324782 322784 321786 324787 327787 331787 335786 337784
      339782 340779
 0.50 494764 494757 494749 493743 491740 488737 484738 480739
      476739 472741 473735 476730 479727 484718 484716 481717
      478722 471728 466734 461741 455747 441762 434768 426777
      416788 410795 404802 395809 391812 386813 379809 377804
      377798 378790 376787 372786 360789 353793 348801 344809
      339819 331828 326833 320838 312838 308837 302836 297838
      294841 289849 284858 280869 279872 280877 281880 282884
      281895 279904 278911 279917 283926 284933 288935 297931
      303926 305924 306925 305936 305946 308947 311944 317938
      332922 337917 341911 347904 353899 368886 376881 384873
      392870 398867 404861 411854 416847 424839 431833 439827
      447823 454825 461824 469818 475811 481802 486792 490781
      493773 494764
 1.00 425796 425793 423794 420797 418799 417801 415803 413805
      411807 413809 414809 417808 419806 420803 422800 423798
      425796
 1.00 370842 365840 362838 360836 361829 361822 360817 357814
      352817 347823 337839 327847 319852 317854 313854 306851
      302851 298854 293861 290868 289877 287885 285894 284902
      285908 288913 288924 291927 294926 301920 306915 312911
      314913 316916 318921 321920 326905 329902 332903 336901
      338897 341892 347886 350879 355871 364860 366856 364855
      361856 355857 354853 356852 361849 368846 370842
 1.50 349842 349840 348838 346839 346840 345841 344842 343844
      343845 344847 345847 346847 347846 348844 349842
 1.50 342864 340854 336854 333856 322872 316877 313878 312875
      310871 308865 306861 302861 298863 296867 294872 292883
      289893 289899 290906 294923 299918 302913 306909 321900
      333887 338879 340874 342869 342864
 2.00 336874 336870 334868 328871 324874 320879 317883 314888
      313892 315896 319892 324888 329885 332880 335876 336874
 2.00 310899 307894 306891 306886 305878 303873 298876 296882
      294887 293893 292901 294908 297909 299907 304904 308901
      310899

24HR QP VT 16/12Z
 0.01 456625 459627 464626 468626 473624 476622 481620 484620
      488621 492622 495626 498630 500634 504635 507637 533706
      530719 529726 526732 521743 519749 517756 505774 495782
      491785 486787 478792 467799 458803 449809 444812 438814
      429820 410831 369851 348859 343861 337863 328868 311881
      302887 295893 287900 279908 272915 268919 266923 256943
      251953 249958 248966 248980 249996 250008 246020 244026
      241025 235024 230022 230983 231969 233964 233957 233949
      235945 239934 243911 241897 241887 237884 235880 233875
      233867 234856 239846 246841 250837 255836 264831 266828
      265825 262821 259817 256814 256806 258802 260796 261790
      266782 294754 311741 328728 345715 360702 379689 394675
      411661 427646 438638 446634 449628
 0.01 533179 534170 534160 533155 530150 526146 523141 519136
      515134 510134 505130 503125 502120 494096 490082 489077
      489068 488064 488059 488049 487043 487035 487031 490032
      493037 497041 498046 504057 507068 508071 511072 514068
      518056 516040 512029 507015 502005 495995 493991 491985
      486973 482962 473939 467927 465922 463918 460913 457912
      455918 455925 452957 451963 448967 444973 441978 436985
      432997 432007 430015 430032 436041 431052 428056 429061
      434060 437060 436063 435071 435080 436083 436088 435090
      431091 426091 425094 427097 430100 431102 430106 425105
      425110 430111 435111 441113 445116 445121 444123 445128
      444138 445145 447151 448153 452154 455158 456160 459161
      467168 488177 492180 495184 496189 496194 492198 489198
      487199 483201 478203 472203 467203 464210 462214 458217
      455221 456227 453232 453238 462247 467249 469251 469256
      468261 469265 471270 475281 477286 480287 484284 487283
      488286 492291 496295 500294 503291 508289 511284 517272
      519266 520256 521251 520247 519240 521226 523220 524211
      529195 533179
 0.01 513231 513229 512226 511223 510220 508217 507217 505218
      506221 506224 507227 509230 510230 511233 513231
 0.01 417180 417172 416163 416158 415155 412150 409143 409133
      410131 409128 411123 413120 419120 422115 419111 415108
      412108 406079 412077 415071 417069 417066 412061 409056
      406057 405060 397073 395079 396085 402100 402105 400108
      396112 401125 399132 395138 389141 389144 392146 400176
      403179 409181 417180
 0.25 523693 522684 521678 516667 513665 511666 505666 501665
      498661 495655 491651 484648 478647 474645 466642 462640
      456642 449648 440656 433662 416674 405682 396687 391690
      386692 382695 377697 367704 360711 352718 345726 338734
      334736 329738 320744 312749 304755 293760 289764 287770
      287776 285781 279788 276793 278797 282799 277802 273810
      271812 270816 272823 280827 281830 280832 276834 273840
      275846 277850 276855 269862 260867 252871 249875 250882
      251888 249894 248900 248904 251903 256896 262888 270882
      284870 301859 304861 307865 312865 315862 322853 329845
      335837 341830 346828 350830 356831 360828 368822 372819
      376823 381823 384819 389812 397805 404799 412793 423789
      429787 435783 445779 456776 466772 476768 485763 493757
      500749 508740 514731 517727 519720 521707 523693
 0.25 522168 523164 521160 519154 516149 511146 507143 501139
      496136 493131 490129 486129 479129 474130 476134 485142
      489147 494150 504157 508161 513163 517167 522168
 0.25 499282 499279 499276 498276 498273 497272 496271 496273
      495273 496275 496278 496279 497281 498282 499282
 0.25 495254 494251 492250 491249 490250 490252 492254 493256
      495254 495254
 0.25 496231 496224 495219 493215 491211 486210 482210 479212
      477214 477218 481221 482224 482227 480228 477229 473231
      472235 473240 476244 486246 488241 487236 489234 493233
      496231
 0.50 511692 509688 504687 494691 489690 488685 487674 483669
      479667 471662 463656 459655 454657 448665 444666 439666
      432668 427671 419678 410684 400690 380699 375701 372704
      365711 349725 342733 334740 325745 316750 300761 296763
      295766 296769 298775 298782 292784 290789 294792 298794
      303795 308796 319797 325796 329798 323805 317813 313816
      307818 295820 287819 286821 287825 290826 294829 297832
      299838 297841 288845 275860 267867 257871 255875 255882
      255888 254893 252895 250898 251900 255896 255895 257890
      260887 267880 275874 291862 307850 311848 316850 323844
      330836 338830 344825 352819 362813 371807 374804 377798
      377795 379794 383791 392788 399786 404784 409781 416780
      422779 427777 443766 453760 464758 473754 480752 484750
      491744 498737 506727 509716 510709 510702 511692
 1.00 481716 480710 478708 475708 463710 453712 441716 429717
      420714 414717 412722 410735 403755 401761 404766 403772
      406773 413767 424763 433757 441750 446741 453733 461727
      473725 479721 481716
 1.00 398709 397705 393703 388705 384708 375712 368717 362722
      358725 355729 350737 344743 336748 328754 318768 312779
      313784 330776 335775 341774 349769 354767 357769 357774
      356780 352789 347796 339810 336818 333823 335826 342820
      347815 353807 355803 357799 358794 361790 367783 373777
      377775 382774 387772 390769 393764 392757 393752 390748
      386747 384747 382745 385742 387737 388730 390722 398709
 1.00 322820 324817 322815 317819 312823 308827 305831 305840
      303844 307843 310839 313832 316828 319823 322820
 1.00 283859 283861 286859 289858 291857 291854 286857 283859
 1.00 272872 275870 277868 278866 276867 274869 269872 267874
      268874 270873 272872 272872
 1.50 428745 427744 425744 423745 422746 421747 420748 419749
      419751 418752 419754 421753 422752 423751 424750 426749
      426748 427746 428745
 1.50 381720 379717 376717 372720 364726 360730 358736 352744
      343749 339752 336756 340758 346758 357754 365748 373741
      376737 376730 378725 381720


24HR QP VT 17/12Z
 0.01 496610 497612 503626 497640 490652 486659 481665 475670
      472673 467675 461679 454682 442690 427699 415708 404716
      397719 390721 385722 380725 374729 364740 354749 344759
      335769 331772 327773 324773 320769 326746 315748 308752
      297762 288770 279780 269790 270792 276792 282796 291805
      296809 299810 303810 306810 305814 302815 297816 292811
      287805 281801 281804 278806 272802 268802 259803 255803
      252805 250808 246809 245804 244800 248799 253796 258793
      261790 259788 259778 261769 267756 272743 279733 288722
      299710 307703 317694 357668 358666 362665 364665 367666
      369667 372665 374663 376661 379659 380657 383655 385653
      387651 390649 391647 394645
 0.01 525257 526249 525243 516245 514240 510236 505226 502216
      497205 493201 488200 478203 472206 467209 463213 456216
      452220 451227 450232 453233 454236 452243 455248 460251
      465255 469258 479279 488283 493288 495293 497297 502299
      507299 510296 511295
 0.01 529180 529173 528166 525157 521152 517149 512141 509135
      505130 496120 490112 487108 482105 480099 479092 478086
      478079 473071 468062 463058 458054 453051 450046 446036
      445034 442033 435033 431035 429039 430045 430052 429055
      426055 421053 414046 407035 406028 408021 410008 410000
      408998 406998 403002 400007 398007 397004 397999 396984
      392975 389972 384974 376983 373995 371002 370010 369018
      368024 367037 367050 366054 370057 372073 374080 377082
      383084 387087 392096 396099 395106 393110 387111 383108
      381112 384117 384125 384129 385129 389124 406119 406115
      408112 410109 409105 406095 405091 404084 405077 409074
      412071 414063 417067 416072 418074 420074 422072 428069
      432073 436077 437079 435083 433085 428086 426086 425091
      427094 433102 439104 442108 445113 450116 454129 456137
      459143 457149 457155 458161 460165 464169 469171 474172
      479175 483179 485187 487187 488183 487177 485163 484156
      481150 475141 476138 479138 481143 487152 491162 494168
      495174 500180 504184 511191 516193 520191 525187 529180
 0.01 489881 488866 487850 486844 485836 484826 484821 482819
      481812 479807 475798 471795 465796 460798 457803 455813
      454819 454826 458840 456852 437890 433900 431904 431909
      433911 433913 429919 426928 426935 430936 432937 431940
      429943 428949 430954 434957 437958 438961 438969 439974
      440986 444015 449022 452024 454022 455016 454010 453006
      453002 457996 460993 472979 477967 479954 480939 481925
      481917 483911 486897 489881
 0.01 408154 408149 406148 405144 404141 400139 395137 391137
      389141 391144 394148 397150 401153 404156 408155 408154
 0.25 520271 519261 514253 511249 507246 502246 500245 497240
      496235 496221 495217 491215 486214 481212 473213 470218
      473221 477224 482224 486227 485231 483232 480228 477228
      473228 470233 473242 479249 483257 488265 492274 495279
      497282 503286 509286 512285 517281
 0.25 492628 488621 485619 480618 473619 466622 459626 448633
      441636 436639 423642 415644 408648 398656 381671 374676
      366678 360681 355681 350683 344685 335692 316710 308716
      301724 285743 280754 279760 280763 283764 292756 303748
      312742 323736 334731 349725 360720 370716 382709 395701
      417691 430684 439677 457662 468652 478645 485638 490632
      492628
 0.25 504158 504150 502143 499138 494134 489130 485127 481128
      486133 489138 492143 494150 497156 502158 504158
 0.25 483882 483867 482858 480852 478842 474838 470838 468843
      467848 466854 464861 460869 454878 450886 446898 444908
      447921 448926 452929 454933 457940 459943 462947 466947
      469942 472932 475920 481897 483882
 0.25 470108 469103 467099 464094 462092 457090 454091 451095
      453098 455103 457108 461111 464112 468111 470108
 0.25 449075 450073 449070 448069 448068 447067 445066 443066
      442066 440067 439069 440070 441072 443073 445074 445075
      446076 448077 449075
 0.25 409061 409056 406051 401044 399042 394040 387045 384047
      379047 375048 374052 379053 382056 387063 390071 398068
      405063 409061
 0.50 515269 515264 514262 511262 510265 509264 507264 504264
      502265 500266 499271 501273 504275 507275 509274 511272
      513270 515269
 0.50 479877 479871 476865 472864 467868 461875 455884 453889
      451895 450902 450907 451911 459916 460921 463924 465925
      469922 472915 475902 477890 479877
 0.50 447656 443655 439656 432660 421663 412665 403667 394670
      378680 370683 363688 356692 352692 348694 341699 335703
      320715 309724 305727 302731 296737 293743 293747 298746
      314737 327729 337724 345720 352717 359713 375701 382697
      389694 397689 405683 412679 421675 429673 439668 444663
      447656
 0.50 399055 400053 399051 397050 395050 394049 392049 390049
      388049 388050 387052 388054 389057 390057 390059 391061
      393061 395060 395059 397058 397057 398056 399055
 1.00 470888 471883 469880 468880 464882 463884 461886 460891
      459893 460896 463897 466895 468893 469890 470888

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.