Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 220931
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
530 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 22/1200 UTC THRU MAY 25/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...WESTERN U.S...

ONE LARGE SCALE SHORTWAVE HAD ROTATED THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S.
TROUGH...SPURRING CYCLOGENESIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE
MONTANA BORDER WITH CANADA...AND LIFTING NORTH OF THE BORDER. THIS
AREA DRAWS OUR ATTENTION...AS THE MODELS AGREE TO PLACING SOMEWHAT
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF FAR NORTHERN IDAHO
AND NORTHWEST MONTANA. THIS IS BACKED UP BY THE GEFS REFORECAST
DATA BASED ON ANALOG CASES. WITHIN THE DEEPLY SATURATED
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CYCLONE...WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES IN STRENGTH TODAY...WITH 700 MB WESTERLY FLOW
PEAKING AROUND 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. THE RESULTING
UPSLOPE HELPS TO EXPLAIN THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN WHAT IS
OTHERWISE NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEEP LAYER LIFT ON THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.

ANOTHER LARGE SCALE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST...BECOMING AN INFLUENCE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING AS IT REPRESENTS A WELL TIMED WAVE FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. FROM THE FRONT RANGE
WESTWARD...THE SOUTHWEST U.S. REMAINS DRY...AND THE GREAT BASIN /
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DIP WELL BELOW
0.50 INCHES IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLONE LIFTING OUT OF MONTANA.
STRONG MAY HEATING AND RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
STILL SUPPORT SHOWERS WITH BROAD AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OF
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IN SOME PARTS OF WY/UT AND ALONG THE
CASCADES AND COASTAL RANGES OF WA/OR/CA. WPC USED PRIMARILY OUR
DOWNSCALED IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE...WHICH GETS AT SOME OF THE
TOPOGRAPHICAL DETAILS USING THE HI-RESOLUTION MODELS. QPF WAS
INCREASED OVER NORTHERN ID/MT...WERE MOST EVIDENCE SUGGEST 1 TO 2
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.


...CENTRAL U.S...

IN A BROAD SENSE...THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH MAKES PROGRESS TOWARD
THE PLAINS TODAY...AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
FROM BORDER TO BORDER. MUCH OF THE DETAILED EVOLUTION IS LIKELY TO
DEPEND ON STORM SCALE PROCESSES / INTERACTIONS...BUT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS DO MATCH RELATIVELY WELL WITH THE MODEL QPFS...WHICH
THEMSELVES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FROM KANSAS NORTHWARD. THE
FORECAST FOR OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS CARRIES MORE UNCERTAINTY GIVEN CAP
STRENGTH AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CAPE TO CAUSE SOME ERRATIC
BEHAVIOR ONCE STORMS DO FORM. OUR APPROACH TO THIS SCENARIO WAS TO
MAINTAIN THE BEST CONTINUITY WE COULD...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
INHERITED FORECAST WAS IN A GOOD SPOT...WITH ONE REGIONAL QPF
MAXIMUM EXPECTED NEAR A SUBTLE WARM FRONT / ENHANCED GRADIENTS IN
NEBRASKA...AND ANOTHER REGIONAL MAXIMUM NEAR THE TAIL END OF THE
WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE RED RIVER IN OK/TX. THE GEFS
REFORECAST ANALOG DATA DEPICTS BOTH OF THESE REGIONAL MAXIMA. ONE
OF THE TRENDS WE EMBRACED WAS THE EXTENSION OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
UP INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THIS TREND
SHOWED UP IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...AND MAKES SENSE WITH
CONVECTION FIRING READILY AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT DROPS INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA...JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTLE WARM FRONT...WITH MEAN
FLOW THEN CARRYING AN MCS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SOME PROPAGATION /
REDEVELOPMENT SOUTHEASTWARD IS ALSO POSSIBLE INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. FARTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ALONG
THE TX/LA COAST THIS MORNING AS WEAK FORCING GRAZES THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE CAP...WITH THE QPF BEING HANDLED SIMILARLY BY THE
HRRR...GEM REGIONAL...AND NAM CONUS NEST...TO NAME A FEW. DRYLINE
CONVECTION...AND PERHAPS SOME INITIATION ALONG THE CAPROCK...IS
EXPECTED LATE TODAY...BUT WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES +9 TO +12...IT
MAY BE A LATE SHOW. THE GREATEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS...WHICH CAUSES US TO QUESTION THE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION THE WRF-ARW PLACES THERE...UNLESS CELLS CAN DEVELOP
FARTHER EAST GIVEN WEAKLY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW...STRONG
HEATING...AND RICH MOISTURE. THE WEAKLY FORCED ASPECT IS ONE
REASON THE QPF REMAINED CONSERVATIVE. WE DID SLOW DOWN THE
DEPICTION OF A RED RIVER/NORTH TEXAS MCS JUST SLIGHTLY GIVEN
TRENDS. EVEN HERE THE EXISTENCE OF AN MCS IS NOT A SURE
THING...BUT DOES HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF MODEL SUPPORT OVER THE PAST
FEW CYCLES.


...EASTERN U.S...

A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS OFFSHORE...TAKING ANY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS...HOWEVER...OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC...AND IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOMEWHAT...RESULTING IN A CLOSED CIRCULATION BY
MONDAY MORNING OVER VA/NC...AFTER A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPS
INTO THE BASE OF THE PRE-EXISTING TROUGH. DURING THIS PHASING AND
ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL CENTER...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL...ESPECIALLY OVER VA/NC...AND OVER PARTS OF WV/MD/DC EARLY IN
THE DAY. WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS ALREADY NEAR SATURATION...IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN. SOME
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND PARTS
OF ADJACENT WV AND NC...WHERE MORE INSOLATION IS POSSIBLE. WPC
BEGAN WITH A 40/40/20 BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST / WRF-NMM
/ ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. MODEL SPREAD WAS LESS THAN USUAL...LEADING
TO FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE.


DAYS 2/3...


...NORTHWEST...

A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL TRANSITION INTO A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
WEST AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COMBINED WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND QPF...THUS WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS OF THESE SOLUTIONS.


...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST...WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS...RESULTING IN INCREASING INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES. TO START THE DAY MONDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRETCHING FROM MN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO CENTRAL
OK/TX. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY ALSO
SITUATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET. THUS SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT MOVING FROM MN
TO WI THROUGH THE DAY. STORM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT
SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HOWEVER DO EXPECT THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT TO BE A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE GIVEN THE STRONGER UPPER FORCING PUSHING IT ALONG.
THUS SEE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT BEING MORE MARGINAL IN THIS
REGION...AND THUS OPTED AGAINST A SLIGHT RISK FOR NOW. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR QPF ACROSS THIS REGION...ALTHOUGH
THINK THE ECMWF MAY BE TOO DRY GIVEN THE EXPECTED SETUP.

FURTHER SOUTH...A PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS/SOUTHEAST NE IN AN
AREA OF LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. WPC
PREFERRED SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND 0Z HIGH RES ARW FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. SHOULD ALSO SEE AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NE/KS. MEAN LAYER WINDS SUGGEST A MOTION OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE MUCH AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...PROPAGATION OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST SEEMS PROBABLE. THIS PROPAGATION COULD BE RATHER SLOW AS
SUGGESTED BY CORFIDI VECTORS ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS ACTIVITY
MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA THAT SAW THE MORNING STORMS. THIS POTENTIAL
ONE TWO PUNCH...COMBINED WITH THE STRONG MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES
FORECAST...SUGGEST A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE TOO ANOMALOUS...BUT WITH VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 1.25" EXPECTED...STILL HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FLOOD THREAT IF
TRAINING OCCURS. OPTED TO ISSUE A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR DAY 2 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NE/EASTERN
KS/NORTHWEST MO AND SOUTHWEST IA TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT. THIS
AREA REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE OF THE 0Z ECMWF/GFS/UKMET
SOLUTIONS...WITH THIS COMPROMISE ALSO GENERALLY USED FOR QPF
ACROSS THIS REGION.

THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY ON DAY 2 IS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS
WHERE FORCING IS WEAKER LEADING TO LESS CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND EVOLUTION. THUS NOT SURPRISING THAT MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS ALSO BEEN INCONSISTENT. WPC QPF GENERALLY FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS
OF CONTINUITY AND THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. STILL SEEMS TO
BE A SIGNAL FOR A POTENTIAL MCS TRACKING ALONG THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AT SOME POINT DURING DAY 2...BUT EXACTLY WHEN IS UNCERTAIN.
AS COULD HAVE CONVECTION ONGOING MONDAY MORNING...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT ALSO LIKELY DURING THE DAY ANYWHERE ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT/DRY LINE. MOISTURE PARAMETERS SUGGEST A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT WITH ANY CONVECTION...SO DO SEE A CONTINUED ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD RISK ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS ON DAY 2 IF/WHERE
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

THE FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON DAY 3...WITH ONLY THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF IT CLEARING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE LOW FORMATION IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
KS/NE. EXPECT CONVECTIVE INITIATION NEAR THIS LIFTING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER NORTHWARD
INTO NE AND IA. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. A SLOWER MOVING BOUNDARY WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
BACKBUILDING INTO THE BOUNDARY AND A LONGER DURATION OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. ALSO CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST A PERIOD WHEN CONVECTION
MAY TRY TO PROPAGATE BACK SOUTH INTO THE FRONT OR EASTWARD
PARALLEL TO IT. QPF FROM RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF/UKMET ARE ALSO
INDICATIVE OF SOME TRAINING/BACKBUILDING IN THE MODEL. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AGAIN FORECAST AROUND OR ABOVE 1.25" AND
STRONG MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION...ANY TRAINING/BACKBUILDING
WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THUS WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE AND IA...WHERE THIS
POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER/MID MS
VALLEY. ALTHOUGH WITH WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING...CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION IS LESS CLEAR...AND THUS WPC QPF STAYED
CONSERVATIVE...FOLLOWING SOMETHING CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
COMPROMISE.

...MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

A DEEP LAYER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ENDING UP NEAR THE MAINE COAST
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT AN AXIS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER IN A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE
WPC QPF FOLLOWS CLOSE TO THE RECENT DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS.


BURKE/CHENARD





24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 459624 463629 463633 463638 461644 458649 455653 453656
      452661 445681 440692 435699 423714 415720 410721 406719
      404715 402708 397700 394695 393691 394686 396682 401671
      405665 409661 412656 417649 425642 429639 431636 433633
 0.01 554144 551126 549117 546115 545109 544105 541104 534103
      528102 523104 515107 511104 508099 499092 494089 488087
      483085 476084 471088 468091 467095 466099 463102 461097
      459095 454093 449095 444097 438098 435094 431090 427087
      424082 429075 429068 426067 422069 417073 413078 409084
      406091 402106 398118 395124 394131 392136 390138 388144
      388151 392154 396152 401148 406140 410134 414130 416129
      416135 417142 417151 416156 417163 421168 423174 424189
      428189 432183 435179 436173 438169 441166 442171 438179
      439188 442188 444186 445178 450170 454186 458185 461183
      464179 465172 468170 471172 472178 475184 480188 488191
      492193 491198 487200 482205 471208 463211 458213 452213
      446214 440214 431216 428216 426217 422216 423212 422205
      419203 418197 419194 415193 412198 404207 400207 398206
      391202 383195 375188 369187 370190 378199 391208 401216
      404219 402223 396223 392225 390227 392233 398235 404237
      411238 415243 419248 425248 432248 447248 458248 465248
      472249 478251 481250 483245 481239 480233 475229 470230
      468230 467227 469225 474223 481222 488222 491224 493227
      495234 497237 498235 501233 504234 510235 514229 515219
      515212 517209 520210 525212 530212 535204 544190
 0.01 516012 517002 514994 510989 511980 511957 509949 507944
      501932 500914 499907 499898 497893 493891 488893 484898
      479903 475909 467919 459927 453933 445940 436946 426951
      413954 399958 387962 377967 366971 359971 355968 345964
      336962 332962 328956 324950 321944 313934 306926 303916
      298906 292896 285888 279878 271867 266863 264864 263869
      264877 266882 267890 268896 267902 264908 262909 261912
      260917 262927 266940 270946 274951 278954 283957 287962
      290968 293972 298973 304971 308969 311963 311956 314957
      317960 320964 322968 321972 318979 316986 313991 304991
      294985 287979 278974 274976 273981 275987 277991 278999
      278009 280010 284010 287008 291008 306009 314011 318014
      319020 322023 327026 333027 348028 361029 373025 380024
      388023 394022 399023 407024 410025 412028 412034 411040
      413046 415049 418049 436040 446035 457027 461023 467020
      472017 474019 473023 472029 476034 482036 488035 497031
      504027 513019 516012
 0.01 478668 477662 475658 473657 470657 468661 463670 459677
      450692 441704 437710 429719 424725 421728 421734 417741
      411746 401748 397748 395747 385748 381748 382744 383738
      386729 388720 390713 388702 384695 379690 375689 369689
      365689 361692 355694 352697 347702 336714 332720 329724
      324732 321737 320741 314747 309754 300766 297772 295777
      302774 309773 309775 308780 310782 318780 322785 327790
      332796 334800 338801 349799 352798 354800 358802 363809
      364816 363820 357826 352832 352839 359839 361843 365842
      369838 375838 380837 384834 391831 397825 402819 406815
      410809 422794 424790 425786 428775 432768 436762 445749
      460715 473685 477674 478668
 0.01 481117 481115 480115 479112 478112 476110 475111 474112
      473113 472113 471115 471118 472119 474118 475118 477118
      479118 480119 481117
 0.01 458172 458170 457168 455168 453169 455171 455172 456173
      458172
 0.01 466055 466050 465048 462045 467041 467038 465035 462035
      460037 453046 448056 443065 438071 446077 449073 453073
      455071 457066 459062 461062 464060 466055
 0.01 440127 440120 436117 432119 430123 428130 428137 427144
      428149 430152 433150 435145 436138 438134 438129 440127
 0.01 410068 409066 408065 408066 407067 406068 405069 404070
      404072 403074 404075 405074 406073 407072 408070 410068
      410068
 0.01 288812 284806 278803 272801 266797 257798 253800 253804
      252807 254809 263808 268806 272806 278810 284814 288812
 0.01 270793 270791 269791 267791 265791 264790 263790 262790
      260791 258792 256793 257795 259795 260795 262795 264794
      266794 268794 269794 270793
 0.01 269831 267825 263821 259817 255815 253814 249814 246818
      247825 249831 251835 255838 262839 266837 268833 269831
 0.01 250798 250796 250794 249793 249794 247795 246796 245797
      244798 244799 244801 246802 248801 249800 250799 250798
 0.25 543154 544144 542136 542127 540121 537119 534119 528120
      520124 514126 508127 503124 498123 494127 489127 476125
      470126 469132 469137 470140 473143 476146 476148 474151
      471152 468152 468155 471160 488177 503195 522189 532184
      536180 538175 540170 542162 543154
 0.25 497954 497950 493948 484948 471950 445963 442964 437965
      430963 418968 403975 398977 394984 391991 390995 391000
      392008 393013 395014 405016 413018 418021 419026 418031
      417035 418040 422037 431030 438024 444021 456016 478002
      482992 483987 483980 487973 491967 495960 497954
 0.25 445651 443647 441647 436645 426652 418662 412673 407684
      407691 411694 416698 421697 426694 431690 436680 440667
      444654 445651
 0.25 403781 400777 396774 391766 388763 384760 375760 367757
      364756 361758 356762 350764 347765 343768 339778 338782
      339784 343780 348778 359777 369779 372782 373788 368789
      366793 365797 367799 372797 381798 379803 379809 380812
      383813 388810 395805 400797 402792 402785 403781
 0.25 380721 379713 378707 372703 365703 361706 357713 351721
      349723 344726 340728 336731 333737 332744 329748 325754
      321757 317759 316764 318770 321772 327772 331770 334767
      347756 355750 361747 366744 369740 374734 378726 380721
 0.25 380006 381999 379995 373994 358001 355998 353994 352985
      349976 344971 339970 335971 332974 330978 327986 327997
      328008 326010 326016 329019 334020 341022 347023 350020
      355016 365015 372012 378009 380006
 0.25 301941 298926 298921 297916 295911 291904 288900 285900
      284903 285908 288914 289922 288929 284929 282927 279922
      275916 273914 272916 271920 271925 272931 275939 277944
      288951 291953 295952 297945 301941
 0.50 539156 541143 540137 537132 532130 528130 520134 511138
      503141 497140 493135 486129 480128 473128 471129 471133
      470138 473142 479144 481148 480152 475156 478162 483165
      486168 489173 495174 497179 501183 507182 510184 514183
      515177 517174 519172 523173 528176 532176 535172 538166
      539156
 0.50 487959 486954 483954 478954 469957 447968 440970 433968
      429969 424972 415982 414983 410982 411977 408976 405977
      400982 396987 396991 398995 401997 401000 399002 398006
      399009 404011 411014 418015 422018 423027 425029 428027
      433023 441016 453010 461003 465997 468991 474982 481969
      487959
 0.50 434667 433660 429659 425662 423665 420670 419673 418678
      419685 421689 427687 430683 431680 433674 434669 434667
 0.50 374722 373714 371711 367712 364715 359720 353728 347734
      343736 340739 342742 344740 348741 353740 358741 367737
      372730 374722
 0.50 376771 376769 374767 373765 372764 371763 370763 368763
      368764 368766 369768 369769 370770 371771 372772 373773
      375773 376771
 0.50 351004 349998 349987 346980 341976 337975 334978 332981
      332986 333995 333001 335005 336013 339016 343017 347015
      349012 351004
 0.50 338751 338750 337749 336749 335749 334750 333752 333753
      332754 333755 335755 336754 337753 338752 338751
 1.00 535158 535152 532147 530146 527148 524152 522157 521160
      524166 527168 530171 532168 534160 535158
 1.00 495151 495145 493143 489135 486132 483131 476132 473135
      472138 475140 479140 482142 483146 485156 488163 492163
      492158 491152 495151
 1.00 471972 472966 468965 464967 454971 444978 440983 437988
      437993 434997 429001 427006 427010 429011 434010 443005
      451995 458987 466979 471972
 1.00 430975 429975 428975 428976 429977 430975
 1.00 428994 427987 428980 426978 422983 419989 415994 412998
      409003 415004 420002 424999 428994
 1.00 343987 343984 342984 341982 340982 339984 339986 341988
      342988 343987
 1.50 492147 490145 488144 489142 489137 487136 484134 481134
      479135 480137 482139 485141 486144 487146 489148 492147
 1.50 478137 477135 476135 474136 475138 477137 478137
 1.50 457979 457975 454975 451976 448977 447979 445981 443983
      441986 441989 443990 445990 448989 450988 453986 455983
      456981 457979
 1.50 489157 489156 488157 488158 489157
 2.00 445986 449981 449980 447981 445983 444985 445986

24HR QP VT 24/12Z
 0.01 555061 554053 555044 555028 556012 553999 548975 553963
      553957 552948 548927 546911 544906 542902 531888 528886
      525889 520888 519881 517876 514874 513870 514867 516863
      518858 520853 521849 521842 518836 516832 513830 508830
      503831 500835 494846 491849 487851 483853 478852 474852
      470852 467857 466862 463873 459880 446890 429899 423900
      419902 410903 398905 389908 383910 378911 369916 362920
      359922 358925 357930 356933 353933 346925 343923 339923
      336919 331918 328917 322917 317915 315913 312909 309907
      302912 298914 294915 288916 284916 283918 281923 282927
      281931 277933 276940 277947 276952 276956 278961 281970
      285978 290986 291991 291997 291002 293007 293015 274011
      268009 264006 257002 241994 235994 231998 230003 232006
      249017 256021 263024 267027 272028 277029 281030 287031
      291033 301034 305032 311032 321033 330030 336023 338021
      340015 347011 354007 364004 376002 383002 387001 392004
      394002 401995 414987 429979 443975 462970 472968 482968
      490966 501965 504970 505973 508973 518978 519985 519992
      516999 510006 504014 499021 492028 482042 476049 473059
      464079 444094 440093 437090 431092 422095 419095 416094
      410093 406095 404099 403107 403112 405117 415119 417121
      417125 415130 413134 409137 406139 402139 398138 394139
      391142 390149 387160 383164 380167 376171 371173 363177
      361180 361184 367192 374197 382203 391207 396213 400220
      398223 395223 389222 387224 388229 390233 394235 402240
      405242 405245 406251 413257 417254 422256 426259 430258
      437254 445255 450255 454254 462251 466250 465247 464243
      460243 457242 460241 467238 476239 478240 480238 481234
 0.01 481234 483229 486226 494228 498234 504239 508234 511232
      512228 513222 515216 517206 517200 520194 521184 524173
      527164 530156 533152 535152 538151 540146 543138 545133
      546127 549118 551109 552097 554069 555061
 0.01 482196 472171 467168 461165 459165 457169 455174 454176
      452178 451176 449175 448171 444165 440161 435158 434151
      435141 436136 440129 442126 441122 439120 435119 431123
      426138 425146 426153 432165 434170 435177 438179 440178
      444176 446177 450180 451188 450195 450206 451212 456215
      467214 476207 480201 482196
 0.01 479067 479064 479062 479059 479057 479054 478053 476054
      476056 476059 474061 474064 474066 472068 474071 475071
      477069 479067
 0.01 442691 441683 439677 432667 425660 424654 421651 400662
      381672 373678 366687 355701 349711 346716 347721 348723
      347725 345731 344736 344740 342741 339744 336749 334754
      333760 335773 337789 337795 341792 342788 345783 348779
      351782 360787 366794 365806 366812 368815 370816 374817
      379817 384816 389813 398807 405800 409791 412786 414781
      419771 423760 424755 428751 432742 436729 440705 442691
 0.01 421169 420164 417163 412162 409160 407163 406168 405170
      402176 398180 395184 395187 398189 400191 403192 406193
      408192 413186 415182 419175 420171 421169
 0.01 421039 421033 420031 416029 416027 411021 408014 404012
      399016 397025 395031 392038 392046 395048 390049 386049
      386052 387060 387063 391064 395064 398066 396073 399076
      400075 405070 410066 413061 418046 421039
 0.01 345173 344171 342168 339167 338165 334164 331163 327163
      327164 328167 330169 333170 337171 339172 342174 345173
 0.01 312003 312000 311000 309999 309998 308997 306998 306000
      308002 309002 311004 312003
 0.01 274805 268799 263798 261797 256785 251777 246770 242767
      239767 235769 231772 229776 227781 228792 230804 232816
      235826 238836 240840 244839 249831 252822 254817 254810
      257810 260813 262817 266819 270818 269812 268810 270806
      274805
 0.25 540003 539995 536989 532986 529986 528988 526996 525005
      523023 522031 522038 516048 513054 513058 521049 528039
      531034 533026 533021 535019 537013 540003
 0.25 514111 513077 511071 509069 506069 499075 495081 493088
      491094 489101 490108 490119 481115 474115 471113 468114
      467120 464127 464134 465141 468145 472150 474156 479167
      482173 483175 486174 494169 499168 505169 501157 503142
      503133 505124 510117 514111
 0.25 507854 506852 504855 500862 496869 493871 489871 487867
      484865 481865 481869 481874 480877 478880 475882 467885
      464886 463892 462895 460898 456899 450899 435925 431927
      428926 421924 413923 409924 404926 397927 391927 389928
      388932 382938 376941 371946 368949 364952 356953 348952
      341949 330943 323939 315937 307936 302935 297937 293942
      292951 294959 293964 294973 295978 298980 300982 305983
      308985 311989 315994 318997 322998 329995 333992 345984
      353979 355978 360978 366980 371983 376988 379991 383992
      397990 402989 405987 411982 421975 435969 442966 449964
      462957 473949 478944 484941 489935 493928 497920 500910
      501906 500901 500893 502889 503883 504872 507854
 0.25 417225 417222 417220 417219 416217 415217 414216 413217
      413219 412221 411222 410223 410225 409227 410229 411230
      411231 412231 413230 414229 415227 416226 417225
 0.25 422140 422138 422137 421138 420140 421141 422140
 0.25 400723 399715 396712 391710 385711 375716 370718 367721
      360729 358736 360741 365743 370744 381745 386742 390741
      396741 399737 400724 400723
 0.25 397758 397756 396755 394756 393756 391757 391758 391760
      391762 392762 393762 395761 397760 397758
 0.25 380183 379182 377182 376182 377183 379184 380183
 0.50 498149 498143 495138 493135 489133 486134 481133 474131
      470134 470138 476144 481153 481160 483164 485166 485159
      488151 496151 498149
 0.50 491919 489907 486903 482904 478903 475900 471899 468901
      462906 455911 451909 448913 446921 445928 444932 441943
      438945 435943 430938 423934 414931 407931 400934 391938
      384943 377947 373953 368959 365964 366968 378978 384984
      390985 395985 399985 403983 409980 416975 423969 429963
      433957 436954 438954 443957 447957 454956 462952 474941
      480935 484929 491919
 0.50 388728 388721 385719 379720 376722 373725 370729 370734
      372736 376739 382738 385734 387730 388728
 0.50 348963 344956 341952 337951 332951 328953 324954 322958
      325963 323969 317975 314977 317981 324986 329984 332982
      339976 344970 348963
 0.50 318962 318958 317956 315954 312953 308952 305954 303955
      303958 303960 305963 307965 309966 312967 314966 317964
      318962
 1.00 480137 479136 477136 476135 475136 475138 477139 478139
      479139 480137
 1.00 416966 410958 411952 411945 411942 407941 403943 397944
      393945 386954 377958 375962 379965 383967 387970 390974
      393975 403971 408969 412971 416966
 1.50 402959 403954 402952 398949 396949 395951 393954 391956
      390959 389961 386963 389964 393965 395966 398966 400964
      401961 402959

24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 542790 538781 536778 532781 527783 523785 520785 518783
      520777 522773 523766 522757 523751 523742 524736 524720
      524714 523708 518711 516713 500723 472743 457754 448760
      441769 428782 425785 426790 430800 435809 435814 432818
      426825 420827 415828 404826 403832 401834 393840 376848
      369853 367856 367859 365866 366882 366886 362885 358883
      353883 344887 342891 340897 339902 335905 325906 314907
      308907 304905 302903 298903 291908 288912 282932 283939
      285945 285959 286964 289966 299971 312971 317971 320971
      322974 323985 318987 315987 314990 312994 311000 311004
      308008 302013 300019 314024 318024 323023 329016 331015
      334015 341015 354016 369003 372001 376999 384994 387999
      390002 394005 391011 390015 386018 383021 382024 389029
      392032 397033 397046 399050 397052 393055 394058 401066
      399071 402074 404074 405072 407066 411055 422056 427056
      428060 426070 425081 422085 418085 413087 410091 403097
      393107 379118 375127 377129 383127 390123 394120 396126
      396131 399134 396135 392132 388133 382137 381151 372164
      371170 369175 365178 361181 359183 361187 364190 365193
      363194 357187 353185 348186 347187 347191 349194 357203
      361206 365205 369203 372203 373205 376215 379218 383215
      389213 394213 397216 401220 406221 406223 403224 398223
      393221 390219 387220 386227 385232 387237 390241 405240
      410240 415238 420237 423236 424234 424227 428224 433225
      436224 440219 440215 436204 435201 438200 441200 447192
      451188 452183 448182 443181 441184 436191 431192 430187
      426182 425177 425174 428173 432172 432168 430163 426159
      425153 425144 426136 428131 432126 434127 434130 435136
      434153 441159 447165 448171 451175 455179 460180 463179
      463172 462166 462161 465161 468164 469170 471174 475177
      481184 483189 484194
 0.01 484194 480203 479208 481208 489206 492204 497206 501207
      503210 505219 507227 510222 515216 520210 524202 523197
      520194 517188 515185 515180 512173 508166 495155 492153
      490149 494140 498134 503132 508128 515124 527116 530113
      529100 528078 529053 529047 528044 524041 523035 519014
      511978 510968 508959 506949 502948 499944 494932 491924
      486927 476942 472947 469952 467956 463961 460959 459956
      454949 452947 451942 450933 452928 452922 452916 453911
      460906 465901 470898 475893 475902 475912 480912 482909
      486901 492896 506868 513852 521836 528823 535808 542790
 0.01 498675 496667 491662 489660 490657 488646 487638 485635
      480639 478644 471657 469663 467666 465662 461660 459660
      458656 454641 451634 449632 447631 443634 440641 435651
      432656 429661 421672 413682 396696 395712 392725 390738
      388744 384745 377745 369747 358754 356758 352762 346771
      344776 345780 348781 353777 357774 365767 372766 375767
      378767 390764 405763 414765 420766 426766 427767 429765
      431763 432759 438756 442752 457735 465725 472714 480706
      487697 491692 494685 498675
 0.01 491222 490216 484214 477212 474209 473204 468202 473206
      474209 473214 471216 471221 473219 478218 482217 485220
      489222 491222
 0.01 505032 506025 504019 500013 495008 493005 490005 490012
      488016 488022 486025 479039 470050 465055 462057 461062
      462067 465070 467073 467078 470078 473076 478072 483067
      486065 488060 496049 504034 505032
 0.01 480236 480234 479233 479231 478230 476229 476230 475232
      475235 476236 477236 479237 480236
 0.01 343171 341167 337167 336170 333170 331166 328166 330169
      332173 329172 325172 328174 330177 336179 338179 339176
      339173 341171 343171
 0.01 292812 285806 279803 277798 273795 269795 266792 261784
      257779 250771 244768 240767 237769 232774 229784 228793
      229805 231816 232821 234825 236828 240830 246830 250828
      256824 260821 265819 270818 273816 279809 284808 288810
      292812
 0.25 509825 509819 508813 504810 495817 490820 487824 484831
      481837 470845 467847 466851 467858 476867 479870 482869
      485864 487861 490859 495855 502844 506837 508831 509825
 0.25 502757 501754 500755 498758 495761 494763 492765 491767
      489770 487773 490773 491772 494769 496767 497765 500762
      502759 502757
 0.25 498175 498172 497171 496171 495172 494173 493176 495176
      497176 498175
 0.25 502795 498795 495798 492800 489803 486806 483811 484814
      486815 490813 493810 496807 499802 501798 502795
 0.25 487775 485776 487775 487775
 0.25 466036 467028 466022 463020 458020 456014 453012 451017
      452019 456020 458025 459030 462035 465037 466036
 0.25 457103 456102 456101 455098 453097 452098 452100 452102
      452105 452107 454107 456105 457103
 0.25 443732 444730 444727 442726 442725 440725 439725 437726
      436727 435727 434728 433730 432731 432732 432735 432737
      432740 433740 435741 437740 439739 440738 442736 442735
      443733 443732
 0.25 449075 448073 448070 447068 445068 443068 441068 440068
      439069 440070 441072 442072 443073 445074 446075 448076
      449075
 0.25 443096 443094 442091 440089 438089 437090 437093 436095
      436098 437100 437101 439101 440100 441100 443098 443096
 0.25 444969 443957 442952 440947 437941 434933 433928 434924
      436915 438906 439894 443887 442882 440878 435874 432881
      430886 428890 426894 427901 423907 415909 413911 410916
      410927 405931 402934 400938 397946 392947 389950 388954
      391961 393965 394972 397980 400986 403993 404999 405004
      405014 411017 411026 413030 419029 422028 427029 430028
      433026 431016 429005 427003 424002 425998 428992 430989
      434987 441978 444969
 0.25 412231 412228 411230 411231 412231
 0.25 409147 409146 407146 405146 404146 405148 406149 408148
      409147
 0.25 389204 388199 390192 389187 386184 381183 379187 376190
      373193 374198 377201 381203 387204 389204
 0.25 388874 388872 387870 386870 384871 382872 382873 381874
      380875 381876 381877 382877 384877 386877 388875 388874
 0.25 383934 383929 382925 382922 380918 378916 375916 373918
      371920 370923 368927 368932 370936 371938 373940 377940
      380939 382936 383934
 0.25 381897 383895 382893 381892 379891 378892 377893 377895
      378897 380897 381897 381898 381897
 0.25 381981 381977 378974 375974 371974 368975 366977 364980
      362983 363987 366989 368990 371991 375990 376988 378986
      380983 381981
 0.25 363952 362949 359947 356943 355940 354936 353928 350923
      347919 344918 340918 336921 332924 331921 328921 325922
      324924 324932 326947 329960 331967 335969 343960 349959
      355958 361956 363952
 0.25 252798 251794 249792 247790 245790 241790 239791 236794
      235796 234798 235802 237804 239804 243803 245803 248801
      250800 252798
 0.50 433964 434957 433953 428947 426938 426928 424923 422920
      418920 415923 414933 410938 406940 404943 402950 398958
      398968 398972 400977 403984 405992 409998 413000 416998
      419992 426977 433964
 1.00 424949 420938 417939 418945 418949 415947 412945 409944
      407947 406952 403957 403963 405977 406984 408988 411989
      414984 416978 416971 416966 418961 419954 423952 424949
 1.50 412977 413973 413968 413963 413959 412956 409954 406956
      406961 406966 407970 407975 407977 408982 412980 412977

$$





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