Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 251742
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
141 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 26/0000 UTC THRU APR 27/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING ITS HANDLING OF
PRECIPITATION AROUND A DEEP CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  ALONG WITH MOISTURE BEING SQUEEZED OUT OF THE
COLUMN BY THE TERRAIN, SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE AND COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY -- SEE WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR INFORMATION REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS IN THIS
REGION.  THE 12Z WPC QPF CONTINUITY WAS EASILY MAINTAINED HERE --
THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD A LITTLE MORE DETAIL WITHIN THE TERRAIN
OF WESTERN MT AND THE WASATCH OF UT.


SOUTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES AS A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT/DRY LINE
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE
MIDWEST.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KS AND
SOUTHWEST MO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR
WHETHER OR NOT AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP.  SINCE THERE WAS
ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE, STAYED THE COURSE AND NUDGED
THE 12Z WPC QPF IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  ALLOWED
FOR SEPARATION BETWEEN DRY LINE CONVECTION ACROSS TX, WHICH SHOULD
FORM WITHIN AN AREA OF STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY, AND ACTIVITY
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT WHICH WILL LIE AT THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF A STRONG INSTABILITY POOL SEEN IN THE 09Z SREF
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST.


GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHEARS OUT UNDER THE BASE
OF THE REX BLOCK ACROSS GREENLAND/QUEBEC.  USED THE MOST RECENT
GUIDANCE TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ACROSS SOUTHWEST MI AND
IL/IN SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, WHICH WAS ALSO SEEN IN THE CAM/MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE.  ALSO ATTEMPTED TO TAME BIAS ACROSS CENTRAL NY, WHERE
THE GUIDANCE SHOWED SOME VARIABILITY.  AS THE SURFACE LOW
FLATTENS, FRONTOGENESIS ALOFT BECOMES A THING OF THE PAST, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE RAINFALL AXIS TO NARROW WITH TIME.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ROTH

24HR QP VT 27/00Z
 0.01 295917 292911 292905 294899 295895 298892 307888 322882
      329878 334876 336874 349859 354852 359847 363838 364833
      365829 362828 357836 352844 348844 348839 347832 349828
      354821 361816 365816 368818 369815 371810 374806 378798
      382790 387782 389778 389773 383752 384747 383740 385728
      376712 377702 380698 381692 391678 397670 401660 411646
      416641 422637 438631 443638 444639 443645 443649 444656
      445669 447681 446685 447692 449702 451711 453723 454736
      455749 454753 455760 457771 459780 464799 466810 470818
      472827 474841 475849 476862 479885 480888 480894 479899
      479905 476913 474917 470919 465920 463919 461920 459920
      457918 452912 451909 450904 445886 442878 438877 435880
      424888 419893 415899 407913 404920 402924 402929 408942
      412948 416954 426966 437978 460993 462993 463990 464985
      467976 470969 472969 474967 477967 479969 479974 484981
      494992 495001 497011 498023 498037 501054 504063 504067
      505070 508078 513084 516087 520088 524089 528087 539078
      550072 554069 556070 559073 561076 560099 548176 539192
      534193 530191 527191 525193 521194 516193 508187 501181
      498180 493176 486170 480163 476164 472162 467160 463157
      460154 454154 451153 448152 446155 441159 435158 435152
      435146 436138 440129 441125 439122 437124 432133 427143
      425149 424158 426160 428165 429169 423168 418176 416175
      415172 414167 412163 407165 405169 402172 398174 395177
      390175 389168 388158 384156 383150 381146 377143 370136
      365128 367126 372122 375120 378116 382112 383110 381108
      377101 368095 361090 357087 356082 354078 354073 358062
      360057 363052 363050 366049 371048 379046 383044 387040
      389037 392032 394028 393023 393016 392009 390004 393002
      392997 389993 385989 378989 359992 356994 350994 339994
      320001 312000 300998 293993 291989 288985 285982 284978
      286974 290972 332963 340960 345958 348955 359942 362938
      362930 362916 360911 360907 357906 352904 347903 342902
      339904 330909 315918 311922 308923 304923 299921 295917
 0.01 511321 484326 471323 464320 460319 458316 450306 445300
      439296 429296 401290 397288 395286 394282 391280 391274
      395268 399264 402261 405261 417260 424260 430257 441255
      454253 466253 479252 484248 486241 491243 496249 500253
      505255 530269 511321
 0.01 552124 551119 547118 543117 539118 534120 531122 528122
      521125 521131 519133 518136 520138 523138 527139 531138
      536136 543133 546132 548129 552124
 0.01 469092 471082 466085 464087 463089 462092 463094 464096
      465097 469092
 0.01 377191 376191 375189 375188 373187 372186 371185 370184
      368184 367185 366186 365187 365189 365190 367191 369191
      370192 370193 372193 373193 374192 376192 377191
 0.01 363101 361098 360098 358100 359101 361101 363101 363101
 0.01 353117 353115 353113 351112 350110 349110 348109 346109
      345112 346112 347114 347116 349119 350119 351119 352118
      353117
 0.01 322825 321817 319815 316817 312820 308821 303823 298823
      290820 286821 283819 281819 279815 272812 265808 261805
      257803 255804 252806 250809 249812 251814 263825 271829
      280832 293834 293837 299837 303838 308837 313837 317834
      320827 322825
 0.25 514288 506280 501277 495275 484273 478274 474277 463276
      458277 457282 459285 462290 463296 464299 467302 473305
      480307 486308 488305 492304 504306 507306 514288
 0.25 530173 530170 529167 527164 525161 523159 520157 517159
      518163 519166 521168 524171 525172 528173 530173
 0.25 492147 492140 490137 486134 481133 478132 473128 471130
      471134 472139 477139 480138 485140 488143 490147 492147
 0.25 482047 483045 483042 483040 483037 483035 482033 482032
      481029 481028 480027 479026 479027 478029 477029 477032
      478034 478037 479039 478042 479044 480047 482048 482047
 0.25 468137 469132 468127 468125 467122 463120 461121 459123
      457125 456128 454132 455137 456139 458140 461141 463141
      466139 468137
 0.25 469873 469861 469854 468846 464826 459808 455797 451787
      445771 443761 442748 442738 441726 439713 437705 435696
      433682 433673 434664 434658 433652 431648 428645 423646
      419649 416653 413657 409664 407673 405683 404692 402707
      398722 396730 396740 399748 402760 403772 403778 402782
      400786 397790 391796 389804 387813 385822 385831 386856
      385863 387872 389881 390892 389901 387904 384906 376909
      373913 372917 372922 372928 374940 375949 374956 371959
      369961 361963 355967 352974 353976 355977 359977 368976
      385974 391974 398977 403981 408988 410992 410998 409010
      408020 408031 405041 402049 398056 393062 387067 383071
      378075 379077 382079 386081 389083 394084 398083 405080
      409082 409085 405095 404099 402104 391112 385115 381120
      381126 384129 387131 391132 399131 409129 414126 419126
      421130 421142 418152 420154 421150 422144 423138 432121
      444094 442087 441081 444077 449079 452077 452066 454056
      456043 454033 450027 439016 434009 429999 422988 419982
      415980 413975 407961 400947 396940 394929 395920 397910
      402893 404883 405871 407862 407852 407834 406824 407817
      412809 417811 421817 425824 424832 422841 415858 414863
      415869 420869 426869 438863 445858 447857 450859 459870
      464878 466885 469879 469873
 0.25 457111 459108 458107 456107 454107 454108 452109 451109
      450109 449110 447111 448113 449114 450115 452116 453116
      455116 456115 457113 457111 457111
 0.25 340978 335974 328973 323975 316977 311979 306982 306985
      310985 317985 323984 330982 335981 340978
 0.50 465858 465848 462839 458834 456825 452805 445792 442785
      438777 434772 431772 427774 424775 423774 425765 428759
      431752 432733 430722 429719 425717 420723 414728 411730
      407728 405729 404732 403739 407747 411765 413774 416783
      425791 432807 435813 440817 444823 448829 452834 455842
      456852 459859 460861 463862 465858
 0.50 450046 448037 444029 437024 430022 422024 419026 417029
      408044 406055 406068 412073 418077 426093 432098 436097
      437093 437082 440074 446071 445063 450046
 0.50 421671 420670 419670 418671 418674 418676 420677 420675
      421673 421672 421671
 0.50 429120 429118 428120 429122 429120
 0.50 435859 435852 434845 432841 426842 423845 421848 419853
      418858 419864 424864 429863 433861 435859
 0.50 426127 427125 428122 427121 426122 426124 425126 424127
      425128 426127 426127
 0.50 415113 414104 410096 408095 406098 406102 404109 401112
      397114 392114 388115 385118 384121 386126 390125 393123
      396119 399116 403119 406122 410121 413119 415113
 0.50 398864 397862 396862 396864 397865 398865 398864
 0.50 397867 396865 394866 394867 394869 395869 396868 397867
 0.50 397961 396952 394943 393933 391922 390919 385918 381920
      379922 378931 379940 382949 384957 386961 387963 392965
      396963 397961
 0.50 375970 377967 377965 375964 373964 371964 370964 368965
      366966 365967 364968 364969 363972 364973 366973 368973
      370973 371973 373972 375970 375970
 0.50 326980 324979 323979 321979 319979 321980 323980 324980
      326980
 1.00 439052 441040 440035 436035 429036 425036 422038 417042
      412047 412053 413057 417062 423067 427069 431068 436064
      439055 439052
 1.00 432092 433090 432087 432086 430085 428084 427087 427089
      428090 429092 431093 432092
 1.50 435045 432044 427046 424046 418047 416050 417055 419058
      423060 428062 431059 432052 434047 435045
 2.00 426056 426053 425051 424051 423051 422050 421050 420051
      419053 420054 420055 421056 423057 425057 426056

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.