Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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400
FXUS04 KWBC 191900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 PM EST THU JAN 19 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 20/0000 UTC THRU JAN 21/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

CALIFORNIA----PACIFIC NORTHWEST

THE PARADE OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC SYSTEMS AFFECTING CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE DAY 1 WITH THE APPROACH OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST---SOUTHWARD INTO  NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA.  THE STRONGEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE TARGETED INTO
CALIFORNIA---WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST
AND TERRAIN FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SUBSEQUENTLY---STRONG OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THIS ONSHORE FLOW
LIKELY THROUGH THE SIERRA AND ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST RANGE AND
TRANSVERSE RANGE.  WITH PW VALUES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THIS MAX
ONSHORE FLOW AXIS---WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS LIKELY THROUGH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST RANGE AND SIERRA---1 TO 2"+ AREAL AVERAGE.  A
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN TOTALS---MOSTLY MODERATE AMOUNTS
.50"+--LIKELY THROUGH THE SAN JOAQUIN AND SACRAMENTO VALLEYS.
LIGHTER TOTALS LIKELY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL FLOW MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST---WITH
.10-.25" AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED.

SOUTHWEST---GREAT BASIN---CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES

AHEAD OF THE STRONG CLOSED LOW AFFECTING CALIFORNIA FRIDAY---A
LEAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST---GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.  ENHANCED UVVS FROM UPSLOPE INTO THE MOGOLLON
RIM--SOUTHERN WASATCH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS ACROSS THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE---WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS LIKELY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST---GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES.

GREAT LAKES---OH VALLEY---MID ATLANTIC---CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS---TN VALLEY--SOUTHEAST

THERE ARE NO MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 1.  THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR A WEAKENING TREND TO THIS SYSTEM AS THE CENTER
LIFTS NORTH NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY---WHILE THE
TROF AXIS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER BECOMES
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID MS
VALLEY---TN & OH VALLEY---SOUTHEAST---MID ATLANTIC AND LOWER
LAKES. AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES AHEAD OF THESE
HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS IN A FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AXIS AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS.  THE GREATEST PRECIP POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS
LIKELY TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF FRIDAY---BEFORE OVERALL
WEAKENING TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING OCCURS DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 21/00Z
 0.01 530210 531201 530195 528184 526171 524166 521162 511149
      505143 500139 497136 493132 489131 486128 480127 478129
      477134 480137 487147 497154 502156 506159 514166 510168
      506166 503163 499161 494159 489158 485161 483164 472199
      465199 457202 453201 452198 451194 451190 453183 453173
      452168 452162 453158 455154 458149 459143 457140 454142
      451148 448150 446152 445150 442147 439144 437147 436152
      436155 438157 440160 439166 430165 426162 424159 421151
      419146 414141 411143 409142 409139 413137 418136 422136
      426132 431124 433122 435122 439124 445126 448127 450126
      454123 460124 462125 464123 467118 468113 470109 475102
      480091 481087 480082 476074 472068 471066 467064 461061
      458054 452045 449040 446037 442035 438036 439041 438044
      436045 431044 427046 422046 418043 415039 412033 399022
      397016 397008 398001 400997 403994 405993 412989 415987
      417983 418979 418972 414959 409952 407949 404949 402947
      397947 395949 393954 392964 390970 387975 378994 375005
      374016 377026 381034 383038 385042 387045 392047 393052
      391056 389058 383051 379048 374048 363050 359052 356053
      355056 356058 359059 360061 356064 358070 363077 366081
      365084 363085 358081 354079 346080 346072 346065 346061
      344056 342054 336053 327053 326057 329058 334058 336061
      338066 335072 331075 327079 318083 313085 311090 307102
      306108 306112 306125 307128 311129 316131 321132 325135
      326140 335156 305153 302154 302157 302162 308170 312177
      317184 327201 330206 334211 339219 344228 348235 353237
      357239 362242 366245 373251 379255 385259 394262 405264
      414263 434260 453258 463257 472260 476263 481265 484268
      488271 496277 502283 507283 510281 513272 517265 520257
      518247 515235 510222 504214 499206 500197 501195 504197
      508199 513204 519210 522213 524213 528212 530210
 0.01 497960 497949 496947 496942 492929 487917 483908 478894
      475889 472883 468868 462851 453823 446801 435769 430756
      424746 416738 411734 406732 397730 392728 387729 359736
      345743 334747 326751 320752 318754 315755 311759 309763
      310767 312768 314771 321771 333773 336773 339775 341779
      341784 343789 345798 343803 340805 337809 331812 324812
      319810 316806 311807 309812 307817 304819 294825 284833
      275842 273848 269853 265864 262876 261881 261887 262901
      264907 264913 260926 261928 265928 265932 265935 259949
      259976 259982 261987 264990 268993 272992 275991 277987
      283976 287973 290968 293962 297956 300951 301945 301928
      300917 302905 306901 311899 319897 326897 333895 338893
      344890 348890 351892 356903 361907 362909 366909 370910
      377910 381911 386911 390913 394911 394901 396898 399900
      404901 406903 410908 417918 423928 424933 424939 423945
      424950 430950 434948 438950 441952 447954 450955 454957
      460957 465957 469959 474964 484969 489970 492968 494967
      496964 497960
 0.01 445084 442080 437077 432076 429073 427067 424065 421067
      419070 417076 414081 411085 407089 410096 413106 415108
      418109 421105 425102 427098 425096 424090 425086 426086
      435092 443086 445084
 0.01 374179 372178 371177 369176 368174 367174 366173 365173
      365175 365176 367177 368178 369178 370179 372180 374179
 0.01 380060 379058 377058 375056 374055 372056 370056 368057
      370058 370059 372060 373061 375062 377063 378062 379062
      380060
 0.25 511254 510249 509243 507238 504235 502231 500227 498223
      496222 495226 496231 497237 499241 502244 504249 506253
      510256 511254
 0.25 479241 479238 479236 478233 478232 476231 475231 474232
      472233 472234 471236 470238 470241 471242 473243 474244
      476244 478243 479241
 0.25 461240 460235 457232 454231 451232 446233 443233 441231
      438227 432225 428227 426230 419226 418223 418218 417213
      414211 411212 409209 406203 401202 388194 373183 366180
      362177 361173 362168 364166 368167 371164 373161 377153
      377146 376143 375137 377132 380129 379124 376122 372122
      359119 353114 348108 345103 344099 340092 335088 332090
      331096 329098 326098 323098 321102 321106 324109 328109
      331111 337115 340122 350134 356137 360141 360150 351151
      349155 348161 349166 350170 353177 350180 347178 346170
      344164 340162 335162 328161 319158 311156 311160 312164
      317170 325180 329188 333195 340210 343216 348222 357231
      371242 378247 386251 395254 405255 417255 432253 440251
      446248 454244 458242 461240
 0.25 463216 464214 463213 462212 460213 458214 457214 456215
      454216 453218 452220 452221 453223 454223 455224 457224
      458223 460222 461220 462218 463216 463216
 0.25 463092 462089 461088 460089 459090 458091 459093 460092
      462092 463092
 0.25 464900 461892 458881 452869 447861 443859 441856 436849
      430841 425835 420829 416824 414821 415818 418809 416798
      412787 407780 401779 397782 396784 391790 390794 391799
      394802 397804 403808 407810 409815 406817 400816 392815
      384815 380816 376815 374812 373808 370805 367804 361807
      355813 349822 328840 325841 322841 319839 316835 313833
      305832 300834 296836 291842 288850 284863 279881 275901
      274906 275911 279911 282909 287904 292901 299896 304890
      310886 320887 336882 343879 351879 356879 359880 363882
      367883 367889 366895 367900 371901 378898 385893 397888
      403888 407889 413893 419900 424909 427917 431926 437927
      440926 442923 443918 444911 445899 446894 449890 453893
      458893 461898 463902 464900
 0.25 418771 418766 416762 414760 413758 411756 409754 407753
      406757 406759 406764 407766 408770 410772 412774 414775
      417774 418771
 0.25 410070 410068 408067 407066 405066 404067 405068 406069
      408070 410071 410070
 0.25 389089 387084 384079 380074 378069 374064 368062 366065
      367068 371074 371082 375087 376091 383092 387090 389089
 0.25 280964 281962 281960 280958 279957 277956 276957 275958
      274960 274961 274962 274964 274966 275967 277967 278966
      279965 280964
 0.50 435245 434240 431238 424235 415231 415226 416220 415215
      412213 407212 402206 394200 384192 370183 361179 357178
      354180 351182 348183 347181 346171 345167 341164 333163
      324161 320159 316160 316164 317167 321172 327178 331184
      335192 337198 341206 345212 354223 360229 367234 378243
      386247 396250 403251 409251 426250 431248 435245
 0.50 433892 430879 426869 419857 414844 412839 409835 402830
      396828 389830 384832 380837 371843 365844 361841 362837
      361833 360826 358823 355823 352824 349826 343834 338842
      329850 322859 316849 310843 305841 301841 298843 292851
      287861 284870 281885 278896 279902 283901 290896 298889
      307882 310877 313872 316869 320866 321881 327881 332878
      342875 346876 352875 357877 364877 370878 377879 389879
      400880 410880 416882 421884 428888 433892
 0.50 362197 363195 361194 360192 359192 358191 356191 354190
      353189 351190 351192 352195 353197 355198 357199 358199
      359199 360198 362197
 0.50 365159 366157 364155 363154 362154 361155 360156 360159
      362160 364161 365159
 0.50 348114 347114 346112 346111 345109 344108 343107 342107
      341109 342111 344112 345114 347115 348114
 0.50 339104 340102 341100 341098 340097 338095 336094 335095
      335097 334097 334099 334101 334103 335105 337106 339104
      339104
 1.00 426242 424239 418237 414234 412230 415221 414217 412215
      407215 404212 398205 390200 381193 373187 369184 363182
      358181 354183 355187 360190 369194 380209 390214 401220
      404223 402226 397226 392224 383216 379213 373211 369209
      365206 362204 357203 352199 349194 346185 345179 345172
      344168 341165 333164 327162 322163 323169 331175 336182
      338187 340193 341199 342204 355217 358221 362224 371231
      387242 392245 396245 407246 418245 423244 426242
 1.00 349842 349840 348839 346839 346840 345842 343844 343845
      343847 344847 345846 347845 347844 348842 349842
 1.00 349864 349857 344856 338858 336860 334865 330867 326870
      325874 327876 331874 336873 341872 344869 347866 349864
 1.00 310865 310858 309852 307849 305848 301849 299849 295853
      291862 287873 284883 283888 283892 285893 288893 293889
      300883 307877 308873 310867 310865
 1.50 413221 413219 412217 410218 408220 408221 407222 407224
      407225 407227 408229 409230 410230 410228 411226 412224
      413223 413221
 1.50 400237 400232 395230 392227 388224 384222 381225 378229
      381232 385235 389238 392239 396239 400237 400237
 1.50 402216 401211 397207 389201 384198 380198 378194 374191
      371187 365184 360183 357182 355184 359188 365190 371191
      374195 379198 382202 385206 390209 398216 402216
 1.50 374225 373217 366216 361212 356205 352201 348194 345187
      344184 344178 343170 341166 336166 328164 325164 324165
      326170 332172 337178 341184 342187 342193 344200 345204
      348207 353211 357217 363222 368223 371226 374225
 1.50 306865 304859 302857 298858 294862 291866 289872 287879
      285885 287889 291888 295885 300881 303877 306871 306865
 2.00 400213 398211 398210 397209 396208 395207 394206 393207
      393209 395211 395212 396213 398214 400213
 2.00 392232 392231 391230 390229 389227 387226 385225 385226
      385227 386228 386230 388231 390232 391233 392232
 2.00 371222 371221 371220 370219 369219 369222 371222 371222
 2.00 364218 360213 356209 353204 349200 347194 345191 345198
      347203 352207 356212 359216 364218
 2.00 368187 367187 366186 364186 362185 361184 359183 357185
      359186 360187 362187 364188 366188 367187 368187
 2.00 342175 343173 343171 343170 342168 341168 339167 337167
      336167 334167 332166 330166 328166 330166 332167 334167
      335169 335170 337171 338172 338173 340174 340175 342177
      342175
 2.00 301870 302865 301863 297863 295864 293866 292869 290872
      290874 290878 294877 296876 298874 300872 301870

$$





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