Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
760
FXUS04 KWBC 080852
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 08/1200 UTC THRU FEB 11/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

...STORM MOVING UP THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EARLY TODAY...

AN IMPRESSIVE...ALREADY MATURE CYCLONE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR
OR BELOW 980 MB AT 06Z WILL LIFT UP THE COAST TODAY. THE STORM
WILL PASS WELL EAST OF THE 70/40 DEGREE BENCHMARK...BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF 850-700
MB WARM ADVECTION AND MODERATE TO STRONG 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS.
THIS WILL YIELD A WINTER STORM WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALSO BEING FORECAST IN SOME
AREAS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE HEAVIEST FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND
TO CENTRAL/EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION TOTALS VIA OCEAN EFFECT OVER EASTERN
MASS. FORECASTS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION WERE RELATIVELY
STEADY FROM THE 12Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY MODEL CYCLES. WPC AND
LOCAL NWS OFFICES HAVE LEANED TOWARD SOME OF THE HEAVIER GUIDANCE
OWING TO THE SYSTEM STRENGTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE ABOVE
0.50 INCHES DURING THE STORM AND EASTERLY 700 MB FLOW PEAKS AROUND
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMATOLOGY. WPC MADE ONLY A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS...FAVORING THE 12Z WRF-NMM AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
TRENDS. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE CHANGES WAS TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT
ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT REDUCTION OF AMOUNTS FROM
SOUTHEAST NY TO CENTRAL NH AND CENTRAL ME. SEE THE LATEST WPC
HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...QPFHSD...FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION.


...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

THERE IS GOOD LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT AS TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN
ELONGATED AND BROADENING UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. WITH MID SEASON ARCTIC AIR HELPING TO CARVE OUT THE
TROUGH...850 MB TEMPERATURES AND 500 MB HEIGHTS DIP WELL BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
LACKING FOR AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE...WITH THE DEEPER SUB-TROPICAL
PLUME BEING DIRECTED OUT ALONG THE PRECEDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. COLD TEMPERATURES...STEEP
LAPSE RATES...AND SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE FORCING...HOWEVER...WILL
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR BROAD AREAS OF AT LEAST 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH
AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ON THE LARGE
SCALE PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTIONS AMONG THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR
WITH ONE MAX IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES...AND A SECOND MAX ALONG THE
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL
DIFLUENCE AND LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
PERSISTENT ON THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
CIRCULATION...TRACKING FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH OHIO TO WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS FORCING IS LIKELY TO EXTEND OUT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH VA/MD/DC AND SOUTHERN PA MONDAY NIGHT NEAR A
DEVELOPING SURFACE OCCLUSION.

MODEL QPFS WERE GENERALLY SPATIALLY CONSISTENT WITH ONE
ANOTHER...WHILE VARYING IN THE SMALL SCALE DETAILS. GIVEN THE
SYSTEM IS DRY IN A TOTAL PW SENSE...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FORCED LARGELY BY THE MID LEVELS...WITH LOCAL UPSLOPE INFLUENCES
AT LOW LEVELS...THE DISTRIBUTION OF HEAVIER POCKETS OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE. WITHIN THE ZONE OF
PERSISTENT MID LEVEL ASCENT DESCRIBED EARLIER FROM MICHIGAN TO THE
MID ATLANTIC...HOWEVER...QUARTER INCH ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE A
GOOD BET BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES AND AGREEMENT AMONG
THE GFS...WRF-ARW...WRF-NMM...AND GEM REGIONAL. HOW QUICKLY THESE
ACCUMULATIONS BUILD OUT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC IS ANOTHER
QUESTION...HOWEVER...WITH THE 00Z HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDING
SLOWER...AND HOLDING OFF MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL DAY 2.
FOR NOW...WPC NUDGED THE SMALL SCALE DETAILS TOWARD THE 18Z GEM
REGIONAL...12Z WRF-NMM...AND 12Z WRF-ARW...WHILE MAINTAINING A
GREAT DEAL OF CONTINUITY. ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WAS
TO DRY THE FORECAST OVER UPSTATE NY...WHERE THEY WILL BE CAUGHT IN
BETWEEN THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND THE DEEPER FORCING PASSING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD LIGHT MEASURABLE
PRECIP...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN 0.10 INCHES FOR MOST OF UPSTATE NY
PER AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES AND MOST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.


...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...

THE AIR MASS HAD DRIED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
WEEKEND SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE REGION TODAY MAY TAP A LIMITED RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE
NORTHEAST GULF...AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT
SHOWERS. ANALOG DATA FROM THE GEFS REFORECAST SUGGESTS A
DISTRIBUTION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER FL/GA/SC RESEMBLING THE
00Z NAM AND GEM REGIONAL...WHICH WERE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS WPC
FORECAST.

DAYS 2/3...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATL...

AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN STATES
TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH WED AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  A LARGE
CLOSED MID TO UPPER LOW WHICH STARTS OVER THE STATE OF MI AND THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND
APPALACHIANS...WHILE UPPER JET DYNAMICS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATL REGION. TJE UPPER
DYNAMICS HELP SPIN UP ANOTHER CYCLONE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY.  A POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS/TROWAL COULD SET UP FROM
THIS INTENSIFYING LOW BACK TO THE SURFACE RESEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER
LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WHICH FOCUSES MOISTURE AND PCPN ALONG A
CONVERGENCE AXIS FOR HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS AND SNOW. THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SHOW MODEST SPREAD ON THIS
SYSTEM AND RESULTANT QPF...BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
WORKING TOWARDS A COMMON IDEA.  SO WHILE THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS AND WITH QPF
AMOUNTS...WE WERE ABLE TO FOLLOW CONTINUITY PLUS A GFS/ECMWF COMBO
WITH MOST WEIGHT GIVEN TOWARDS THE GFS.  ON WED...DEEP COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONSUME THE EASTERN STATES...WHICH RESULTS IN
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS INTO THE APPALACHIANS WHILE THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS
WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND NY STATE.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/BANN


24HR QP VT 09/12Z
 0.01 468621 471622 474621 477625 483636 483642 484649 483664
      485683 486693 485700 477712 473718 466722 463723 461726
      458731 455747 455759 453763 454767 456775 469776 475777
      481781 486783 488791 492805 486816 484824 481829 479836
      481842 483850 486853 492865 494870 493878 490887 488894
      487904 486910 486917 486926 482930 479927 476927 474930
      459941 454944 451945 447945 440945 439939 438937 440933
      440928 441925 440922 438918 435916 429919 421926 417928
      412924 408923 405919 400916 396915 395917 396922 398926
      404931 407931 409933 411934 414938 417943 422949 421954
      417954 412954 407950 398944 392943 387940 384938 381934
      377930 373927 366918 362905 361894 361889 360885 359881
      358877 355872 352867 348871 343873 341871 339866 335861
      331859 329851 329848 330844 333837 337832 339826 337823
      334823 329827 312841 305846 300843 298839 296832 293827
      292822 293816 293811 293804 295796 297793 298789 297779
      296771 298766 304756 308747 314739 328715 335705 343696
      357678 372664 374662 378661 386661 389661 391664 395669
      407662 411659 415653 420644 427635
 0.01 522036 519025 516022 511019 505016 500013 495012 473011
      469013 466011 458005 449005 445008 442012 452027 459033
      467038 472039 475041 478042 480044 483047 486053 489055
      493058 498060 501059 502052 505047 508045 511043 514043
      518043 520041 522036
 0.01 437842 436840 436837 435835 433836 431836 430836 428836
      426836 425839 426841 428840 428841 430842 432843 434844
      435844 437842
 0.01 421744 420742 418743 416742 415743 416745 417745 418747
      420747 421744
 0.01 374754 373749 372745 369741 366744 359748 353753 348758
      345764 342771 342775 346776 353772 358767 365762 370758
      373756 374754
 0.01 288837 288833 286831 285828 283826 281825 278825 277828
      278832 278834 280838 282840 284840 286839 288837
 0.01 272803 272799 268797 257798 252799 248801 244809 243819
      244824 247827 249825 251820 253817 253812 251809 252806
      254804 259801 265802 268806 271806 272803
 0.01 273073 273069 271065 268058 265053 262047 258045 256046
      250048 249053 252056 254063 256069 261076 263077 268077
      273073
 0.25 470646 470641 468638 464636 459637 456635 452635 449636
      442639 433647 418661 411671 403680 400684 394686 390689
      386689 384682 379679 376679 372681 367685 339718 334727
      329734 326740 324745 321758 320764 321769 323769 327766
      336760 345751 352743 357735 362723 364718 372717 378715
      381714 384715 390722 398728 404730 411729 422725 430720
      441712 441706 444698 446693 449689 456682 459677 460671
      463663 466658 469652 470646
 0.25 475887 475882 475877 474875 471873 469875 468880 468883
      467888 466892 466895 466900 468900 470898 471895 473892
      474890 475887
 0.25 468814 466808 464804 458799 448798 443796 440791 436788
      432792 426798 422800 420801 417800 412797 409792 407792
      407789 407783 408778 407775 402771 400765 399758 396752
      391744 392740 391734 389734 387736 386742 385749 384756
      385763 385769 382778 382791 379797 376803 374807 370809
      363814 358821 351832 349836 348841 348844 351844 354844
      367831 373831 377829 385827 396827 400829 405834 409834
      412831 414826 417824 425817 426814 429814 433816 446824
      456829 461830 465827 467821 468814
 0.25 465866 464865 463866 464867 465866
 0.25 423862 422862 421862 420863 421863 422863 423862
 0.50 460649 454643 450642 445643 439649 432658 425663 418671
      413678 407686 401694 398698 397704 398710 400713 403716
      408717 416717 422717 427713 433707 437697 445678 449670
      452665 456660 459654 460649
 0.50 461815 461812 461811 460810 459809 457809 455810 454810
      453811 452812 452814 452816 454818 454819 456820 456821
      458821 460820 461817 461815
 0.50 413816 413813 410812 404811 398810 393808 392805 389804
      385809 380813 379816 381820 386821 392821 399822 404822
      409820 413816
 0.50 401779 400777 400776 398775 397775 396775 395774 394775
      395777 397779 399781 400779 401779
 0.50 379696 379691 377687 374686 372688 371691 370693 369697
      368700 369705 372706 375703 377701 378698 379696
 0.50 363823 363822 363823 363824 363823 362825 361824 361825
362826 362825 355837 355835 354837 355837 355837 354839 353838
353839 354839 354839 358832 358830 357832 356832
      355835 357835 357834 358832
      358832 360827 360828 360827
 0.50 351735 348735 346735 346732 349725 348720 344718 340722
      335730 332735 331738 331744 331748 334752 337752 340750
      345745 349740 351735
 1.00 446656 446653 444653 443654 441656 440658 438660 438661
      437663 437664 437666 438667 439667 441665 442663 443661
      444661 445659 445658 446656
 1.00 434674 431673 428676 425677 421680 418688 414694 411701
      411704 413707 419709 423708 425705 427698 430690 432682
      434674

24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 509288 509282 507277 505272 504265 504259 502254 498251
      494248 491244 486243 482243 476242 468242 460245 442249
      435249 430251 426254 427257 429258 432258 443258 462258
      466257 470259 480265 485268 487271 495279 501285 506289
      509288
 0.01 487699 486690 484684 480669 479665 476661 468658 459654
      454653 452657 449662 446667 441670 437674 429681 426682
      423682 418682 407685 403685 398686 387693 385697 381702
      376705 370707 369709 366709 360711 349715 345718 342722
      330735 327740 325745 320754 316767 314778 312783 315786
      320787 324784 330779 335771 347752 351748 354746 357746
      367748 371751 375756 372765 369773 366777 368781 369784
      372784 376783 379782 380785 383791 381797 379799 376801
      372803 369804 367804 366807 364813 361816 358821 356826
      353826 349832 344837 341838 340837 336834 333837 332843
      332850 331854 329855 329859 342876 349881 354888 363887
      367887 368886 373882 384886 388890 394892 398892 403895
      409894 413892 415896 420899 422900 424898 427898 435892
      441895 447895 450901 454904 458907 462912 466913 470912
      475900 478891 481880 483877 483873 482863 482846 479807
      477801 476794 474786 472780 466755 462742 468734 471727
      475722 480712 484705 487699
 0.01 498062 499057 498052 497048 492043 490038 476019 470013
      460008 453007 451007 448005 439999 433990 429992 424992
      423996 421998 415998 417002 420003 422006 427014 433023
      444026 454032 462038 465038 467042 470046 473046 476049
      478052 481059 484063 493064 498062
 0.01 441723 441721 440719 438717 436717 434718 433720 431723
      433725 435724 437724 439726 440724 441723
 0.25 473885 474877 472871 471866 469863 467860 467856 467858
      466866 465871 465878 467883 467890 469892 471890 473886
      473885
 0.25 465851 463846 461841 457838 454840 451844 448847 444851
      443854 441858 441861 443862 448862 452860 455857 459854
      463852 465851
 0.25 413715 413709 412706 408705 404705 397707 389712 385716
      382723 380731 381737 383740 386747 388752 388758 389763
      390767 394775 398781 401782 404779 407773 408768 408764
      406755 406749 407745 408736 409728 413715
 0.25 424862 422861 421860 420860 420863 421865 422865 424863
      424862
 0.25 419787 419783 417783 410787 406789 402788 399788 396791
      391796 387802 386805 389806 396805 403805 411803 416799
      419790 419787
 0.50 390732 390730 389730 390732 390732

24HR QP VT 11/12Z
 0.01 519276 520270 519265 518255 511237 504221 501214 494210
      490210 486207 484204 481203 477212 475215 471217 469214
      465214 460219 458223 455227 450232 444237 439243 428255
      417264 412269 407277 408286 411293 418292 425288 436280
      444292 450291 456288 470282 476280 484280 498290 507293
      510293 513290
 0.01 516025 516017 514012 511006 508003 495987 481974 472969
      469966 466961 457956 452954 448954 445958 446963 452972
      459979 467985 469990 472994 475999 478003 475009 478014
      481017 489023 498023 505029 511030 513030 514027 516025
 0.01 476692 476686 474682 469683 466687 460690 453691 451694
      448693 447689 447686 447681 445676 440670 432667 425668
      415671 410673 407676 404682 386714 382720 377728 374731
      373736 375741 376744 380747 384747 391742 396737 402741
      404741 405744 405750 403755 404760 409767 410772 409777
      405780 399781 392785 386791 380791 380797 377800 369804
      359816 355823 354828 355835 354841 362836 364841 363845
      360850 360852 364852 367849 376853 383856 389861 407864
      418876 426877 435876 446876 449877 454877 457878 457882
      457889 456898 460903 462906 466908 472904 475897 480889
      483884 482883 481879 481875 480869 476860 465819 464815
      466812 470804 471798 471792 471788 469786 469781 466778
      464774 461770 457769 455766 455762 454749 454738 455732
      458727 462720 466710 469704 469699 476692
 0.01 442014 443009 443007 439006 436004 434004 431002 429001
      427999 425999 425002 427006 427009 429011 432012 435014
      437014 441014 442014
 0.01 383777 383772 382768 382764 381759 380757 378754 376755
      375758 375762 375767 376771 377776 378778 381780 383777
 0.25 511276 512270 513263 512255 511250 509246 505239 501233
      499232 497237 500245 503252 499258 502266 505274 508277
      511276
 0.25 457249 457247 455248 454248 453249 452250 451252 450252
      449254 450255 451255 452254 453253 454252 455251 456250
      457249
 0.25 422799 422796 421796 420797 419799 418801 418802 420804
      421801 422801 422799
 0.25 424865 422863 421863 421862 420863 420865 421865 422865
      424865
 0.25 392803 390802 388803 387803 385804 383806 382807 382808
      380809 379812 380813 382812 384811 385810 387809 388808
      389807 390806 390805 392803

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.