Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 220629
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 AM EDT SAT JUL 22 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 22/1200 UTC THRU JUL 23/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GT LAKES...

HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW DROPPING ESEWD FROM MANITOBA
WILL HELP TRIGGER SCTD CONVECTION AHEAD OF ASSOCD LOW PRES AND
COLD FRONT MOVING ACRS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SAT.  AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT REMAINS MODERATELY MOIST WITH SFC DPS IN THE UPPER
60S AND WITH MODELS SHOWING SOME FAIRLY DECENT INSTABILITIES DVLPG
DURING THE DAY.  WHILE THE MORE ORGANIZED HEAVIER RAINS WILL
LIKELY DVLP NORTH OF THE BORDER IN THE EVOLVING COMMA HEAD...SOME
STGR CELLS OR LINE SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAINS FROM ERN MN INTO WI/U.P. OF MI.


...MID ATLC WWD THROUGH THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS AND CNTL
PLAINS...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD FROM ONGOING
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION/MCS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY
ASSOCD WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES AND CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
S/WV...STRADDLING AN E/W FRONTAL BNDRY.  VERY DEEP MSTR WITH PWS
AOA 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TO POOL ALONG THE BNDRY..MAXIMIZING ACRS
PARTS OF THE MID ATLC EAST OF THE APLCNS SAT AFTN.   MODELS
SUGGEST A RE-INTENSIFICATION OF REMNANT MCS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
INTO PA/WV AND POINTS EAST BY AFTN AS DAYTIME HEATING AWAY FROM
DENSER OVERCAST ALLOWS FOR STG DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS.
MODEL PREFERENCE WISE...GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WERE CERTAINLY TOO FAR
NORTH WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS ACRS THE MIDWEST ON FRI/FRI
NIGHT AND THAT MAY BE AGAIN THE CASE TODAY.  HI RES GUIDANCE
ESPECIALLY THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR HAS AT LEAST CAPTURED THE
EVOLUTION OF MCS ACTIVITY ACRS THE MIDWEST REASONABLY WELL AND
THAT TOGETHER WITH THE NAM CONEST AND EVEN THE WRF ARW APPEAR TO
BE A GOOD BLEND FOR DOWNSTREAM DVLPMENT TODAY.  THAT WOULD SUGGEST
HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS WITH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH
ACRS PARTS OF SE OH INTO MUCH OF SRN PA..SRN NJ INTO NRN MD AND
NRN WV...WITH DEEPER LAYERED WLY FLOW SUGGESTING DECENT CHANGE OF
TRAINING AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS PSBLY LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING.
 BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE...DEEP MSTR WILL REMAIN POOLED ALONG THE
BNDRY EXTENDING WWD THRU THE MIDWEST/MID MS VALLEY AND CNTL PLAINS
WITH VERY UNSTABLE CONDS EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SCTD
CONVECTION ALONG THE BNDRY INTO SAT NIGHT.  SOME EMBDD SMALLER
SCALE MCS ACTIVITY WILL BE PSBL WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLD HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE RAINS ALONG THE BNDRY FROM THE CNTL PLAINS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY AIDED BY WEAK S/WV ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE CNTL
ROCKIES.  HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS HERE ARE LOWER AND
THUS HAVE TAKEN MORE OF AN ENSEMBLE APCH TO QPF ACROSS THIS AREA.



...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...

WHILE SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING IS FCST ACRS THE GT BASIN THIS PD
OVERALL 5H PATRN REMAINS VERY WEAK WITH LITTLE STEERING FLOW.
ACRS THE 4 CORNERS REGION...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE
OVERALL MSTR PROFILES WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN OVERALL
PWS ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF AZ DURING THE PD.  SCTD DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE RULE ACRS THIS REGION.
WEAK UPPER SHEAR AXIS NOTED ACRS WRN CO MAY LEAD TO SOME SLIGHTLY
HEAVIER ORGANIZED RAIN AMOUNTS ACRS PARTS OF SRN CO INTO NRN
NM..WHILE HAVE INDICATED SOMEWHAT HEAVIER QPF TOTALS ACRS SERN
AZ/SW NM IN AREA OF WEAK 85H-7H CONFLUENCE.  PATRN WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT THE POTNL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACRS PARTS OF THE
REGION..ESPECIALLY ACROSS BURN SCAR AREAS AND NEAR STEEPER
TERRAIN.

...GULF COAST/FL...
VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITHIN WEAK FLOW REGIME WILL LEAD TO
SCTD MAINLY DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZES.
CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAIL IS LOW HERE GIVEN WEAK FORCING ALOFT.
DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CONTINUITY HERE.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SULLIVAN

24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 516283 519267 519255 514234 510224 504218 500215 495215
      492216 490221 493242 487234 478232 475235 473240 473252
      474257 476262 481268 494282 497286 501288 503292 507293
      513289 516283
 0.01 534011 534992 534982 534975 532969 531963 528952 525939
      523934 522928 514901 508880 501857 496838 490818 483809
      480806 475805 470806 467808 461815 458819 456819 455815
      451804 450801 447801 443799 433796 429794 427789 427777
      426765 422755 416738 412727 410714 407697 405692 402689
      396682 386684 380685 376689 371699 368710 366720 359762
      355769 355774 355780 358803 358807 357810 353815 348817
      345820 340827 336835 327841 318844 312834 308823 306812
      315808 322801 326792 314787 310785 305786 298786 287788
      281789 274789 268788 257790 251791 248795 245796 244801
      244808 245815 250817 258832 262838 264842 263845 260869
      257889 256894 256901 258907 258913 260917 260923 263932
      272951 275956 279960 285965 288968 290968 298964 306959
      313954 320937 328926 334917 337913 339908 341896 344887
      350864 355856 360846 362843 365843 368847 371851 374856
      378877 376897 376909 375918 374950 375956 377962 379971
      379979 378985 376002 376011 370019 367022 362025 357024
      353026 350028 348033 343039 339048 332044 326039 325031
      317025 314024 308025 304027 299026 291022 288021 286022
      283024 275030 273041 271048 268050 265050 262053 261057
      260060 258060 252059 248061 247065 250068 253070 260073
      265078 275092 281101 287108 292115 298121 303123 308123
      313121 317125 318127 321128 324126 329125 334126 338128
      341132 346138 350139 353138 359140 367139 375143 381147
      386150 390151 396150 398147 391143
 0.01 391143 384140 380138 381134 384128 390123 393118 398115
      398113 396110 391110 383112 377114 369112 366110 365105
      364098 368093 374092 379089 388079 397068 401064 404058
      406056 405054 401049 400045 401041 407038 415037 419036
      419033 420028 421025 422017 422013 420010 417005 412998
      407994 405993 403989 402978 401963 401943 401931 402927
      404924 407924 409920 411911 420884 420880 423877 425879
      426884 426890 429892 433899 436904 440908 445912 448914
      447918 447925 447935 446953 450957 457957 467953 474950
      477958 479967 482975 485980 490984 497995 499996 501001
      502010 504020 507027 510032 514031 520030 524029 525026
      534011
 0.25 512249 511246 510241 509238 508235 506233 505231 503232
      502236 503239 505242 506245 508247 509249 512249
 0.25 499261 499260 499258 498257 497255 497254 495253 495251
      494250 492249 491250 492253 493255 494256 495257 496259
      496260 497261 499261 499261
 0.25 520986 521978 520971 519957 515939 513927 510914 508906
      505898 499876 492858 488850 483842 478837 475837 471838
      465843 463846 461851 460863 455867 447870 442871 437873
      435875 433878 434883 435887 441894 448898 456898 459899
      460902 459914 457925 457929 459932 463934 467933 473932
      480932 487934 492940 497947 502956 510970 514986 517988
      520986
 0.25 442825 442822 442820 442817 442815 440813 438813 437815
      436816 435817 434818 434820 433821 433823 434825 434826
      435828 436829 438830 440829 441827 442825
 0.25 418792 416781 412769 411760 412755 411749 408735 406723
      403714 401709 399707 395705 391704 388705 384709 381717
      379725 376735 375745 371752 370757 370763 375772 379783
      380787 380791 376798 373807 371812 371818 380831 389848
      391858 391867 391881 392895 394895 395888 396878 398869
      403859 404855 405856 407860 408862 410862 415841 417830
      418821 418812 417802 418792
 0.25 391064 391059 390056 384053 384048 386045 388038 388033
      384032 380035 368041 364047 360051 357053 356057 359060
      361058 369059 368062 364063 361063 360066 365070 375078
      378078 380076 384072 391064
 0.25 394986 396982 396977 396970 396954 395945 394940 390929
      387918 387913 384913 382918 382924 382931 383945 385959
      386965 387972 387981 388986 391991 393988 394986
 0.25 385765 385763 384761 384763 384765 385766 385765
 0.25 377128 378126 378123 377123 376123 375124 375125 374127
      374129 374130 376130 377128
 0.25 355120 355117 354116 353115 351114 349114 348116 349119
      350120 352121 354121 355120
 0.25 345109 344089 341080 336074 333071 329070 325069 322070
      317071 315073 313070 309068 299068 294068 291069 283072
      280075 281079 291092 290099 295105 302109 311111 328107
      331105 333106 340110 345109
 0.25 336058 334056 334055 332055 330054 329054 327055 326055
      326057 326059 327059 328060 330060 331060 332059 334059
      336058 336058
 0.25 319905 320897 318892 315889 311887 305882 306880 304876
      300867 298862 298855 298846 294839 284827 280825 278822
      281819 285815 286811 287807 283804 277802 272802 267802
      257806 256810 259813 264819 268827 274832 282836 286839
      284843 282852 282859 284865 280875 277883 275892 273901
      274906 277908 282910 282911 280921 279932 283941 287947
      291949 296949 302948 305945 306935 309925 312918 317910
      319905
 0.25 309043 308041 308039 307038 306037 305036 304035 302035
      301036 301037 300038 301040 302041 303042 304043 306044
      307044 309043 309043
 0.25 300899 300897 300896 300897 300899 300899
 0.50 515955 512940 509928 504914 498905 497899 495889 493873
      488861 482852 478850 475849 472850 470855 469863 477890
      475895 472901 467910 466915 467920 471923 476922 480919
      484917 491916 494919 497923 499929 501939 504949 507955
      512960 514958 515955
 0.50 457886 457884 457881 456880 454880 452880 451882 449883
      447884 446885 444887 444888 444889 446891 448891 449891
      451890 453889 454888 456887 457886
 0.50 415830 411796 410787 411779 410772 407766 407756 408752
      407747 404731 401722 398716 394713 389714 386720 384729
      385740 386750 386755 388760 390766 391771 386776 386781
      387783 389786 389789 386794 380807 379814 379818 383825
      387830 390836 393842 395849 398849 399846 410845 414836
      415830
 0.50 393952 392947 391943 389937 388931 386927 384934 385940
      386947 386952 388957 389961 391963 393956 393952
 0.50 374053 372052 371053 372053 374053 374053
 0.50 370052 368051 367051 366052 367053 368053 370052
 0.50 340098 340094 339091 338089 337086 335084 332083 330086
      331090 332092 333095 335097 337100 338100 340098
 0.50 322098 322094 320091 315086 308081 303077 298077 294077
      292079 292082 297088 298093 296099 301104 310105 317103
      321099 322098
 0.50 301931 301928 299926 297928 296931 294933 292934 291937
      292940 294941 296940 297939 299937 301933 301931
 0.50 275809 276807 274807 273807 271807 269807 267807 265808
      263808 262808 261809 262811 264812 266812 267812 268812
      269812 271812 272812 273811 275810 275809
 1.00 485882 485876 485871 484867 483864 481862 479862 478865
      477867 478870 479873 481877 482879 484882 485882
 1.00 410822 408808 406794 404789 406782 406778 404774 401771
      399763 399756 400751 401737 399730 396727 392738 391748
      389754 391760 395770 392778 395781 397785 398789 395794
      388800 385804 384809 383816 386820 392828 394833 396832
      399827 402824 407824 409823 410822
 1.00 313094 313093 311092 310092 309091 309092 308094 309095
      311095 313095 313094

$$




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