Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 161813
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
213 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 17/0000 UTC THRU SEP 18/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HI PLAINS...

WIDESPREAD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG AND IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
BEFORE SLOWING CONSIDERABLY THROUGH SRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTL
PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND SUN.  ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE START OF
THE PD WILL BE ENHANCED SAT NIGHT WITH APCH OF ASSOCD NEG TILTED
S/WV TROF THAT WILL HELP TO ACCELERATE THE FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER
MS VALLEY SAT NIGHT. WITH RATHER DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT FUNNELING DEEP MSTR FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MSTR..FRONTAL LIFT..AND
INCREASING DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF SHOULD SUPPORT A
SWATH OF MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS SAT NIGHT THROUGH PARTS
OF THE MO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AS MAIN HEIGHT FALLS
LIFT NEWD AND ALLOWS SLOWING ALONG THE SRN END OF THE
FRONT...VEERING 85H FLOW COULD SET UP A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
PATTERN FOR BRIEF TRAINING OF CELLS ACRS PORTIONS OF ERN KS INTO
SW MO/NE OK LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS FLOW AND POOLED
MSTR BECOMES A BIT MORE ALIGNED WITH THE SFC FRONT AND OR
PREFRONTAL OUTFLOW BNDRIES. SOME SUBTLE MASS FIELD DIFFERENCES
WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH NORTH OF THE COLD
FRONT AS WELL AS DIFFERENCES IN SMALLER SCALE VORT DETAILS..SOME
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...ACCOUNT FOR MOST OF THE SMALLER SCALE QPF
DIFFERENCES.  TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE DIFFERENCES...WPC QPF ACROSS
THIS AREA RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON A MEAN OF THE MOST RECENT HI RES
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH CONTINUITY.  FARTHER SW ACROSS W TX INTO
SRN/SE NM...BROAD SOUTHWEST MID UPPER FLOW CONTAINING WEAK EMBDD
VORT FEATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
THIS AREA WITH POTNL FOR SPOTTY HEAVIER CELLS GIVEN INTRUSION OF
HIER LEVEL MSTR FROM MEXICO.   CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS
GIVEN QPF SPREAD SO STAYED CONSERVATIVE WITH AMOUNTS THERE.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO WESTERN WA AND NORTHWEST
OREGON BY LATE SUN AS A UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND
IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME MODERATE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN
REGIONS OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL MTNS/OLYMPICS OF WA/NRN
OREGON.  GIVEN CONSISTENCY OF THE MODELS HERE...HAVE GENLY
FOLLOWED CONTINUITY.


...E-CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

SCATTERED PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTION ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED WITHIN AN AXIS OF ENHANCED PWS ALONG THE
CNTL/ERN GULF COAST REGION.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE..ESPECIALLY DURING EARLY STAGE OF DVLPMENT AND WHERE
MERGERS OCCUR..OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH QPF DETAILS
GIVEN LACK OF AN ORGANIZED MID/UPR SUPPORT.

...COASTAL NC...

WHILE HURRICANE JOSE IS FORECAST BY THE NHC TO BE TRACKING WELL
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS DAY1...ENHANCED/MOISTENED ONSHORE FETCH
WRAPPING FAR TO THE NW OF JOSE MAY SPREAD MODEST PCPN INTO COASTAL
NC THIS PERIOD.

SULLIVAN/SCHICHTEL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 18/00Z
 0.01 519271 523264 524259 524253 524248 522244 519239 515233
      511227 504213 502207 498202 490200 484201 475207 469211
      463212 459215 454219 450224 446225 442225 437225 433229
      429235 427239 425242 423248 423252 425254 432256 436255
      439256 446258 447261 445262 444266 440271 439276 441279
      445283 452283 458283 461285 462289 464305 467313 471318
      480327 488331 493335
 0.01 563913 563900 562894 561889 558873 553854 547832 545823
      542812 536791 534781 531773 524753 518737 512724 508716
      507711 508706 505697 502688 494668 488651 485641 482639
      479638 473641 470649 467656 470665 472678 478699 481709
      482722 484735 486745 487758 487764 486770 484790 483794
      480798 477800 474802 463810 453817 441824 428834 416843
      404853 397857 393864 390870 385877 381883 379886 376882
      369874 354872 349873 346871 336871 332871 328870 322866
      313858 312852 310849 305840 300835 297837 297842 296851
      297860 303871 303890 299896 295901 292904 288905 278906
      270908 262909 258915 255923 255927 257931 257935 259939
      262945 262950 261955 259960 259967 264971 270973 275973
      279970 284965 290959 292954 294956 298951 301943 305937
      306927 307923 310924 314920 314915 316913 318921 321926
      323930 321934 324937 328932 334926 339921 342918 345915
      353910 355912 357916 358921 358927 358938 356948 354957
      352963 341972 333979 328986 325991 322994 322998 325005
      327003 329000 335993 339988 345985 347985 349987 347990
      344000 342004 340008 336012 331016 325022 323027 318030
      305036 293043 287047 280050 272053 265056 262058 257058
      250055 244051 238047 231046 227046 225050 224059 225064
      229070 232076 236081 245089 250093 256096 259096 261094
      262092 266092 269094 273095 281096 287094 290088 296085
      303084 306084 308086 312091 315093 319094 323089 325087
      328086 332087 334090 336093 339093 344090 348091 349092
      356092 364092 360089 353079 350077 346075 340074 328077
      325077 320076 315073 313071 312069 314061 316058 319055
      322061 335063 341065 346066
 0.01 346066 351064 354067 357069 361069 364061 372058 374060
      374062 370065 370068 372072 375082 377086 380088 385088
      388087 385081 391080 394078 399073 401067 400063 407058
      419046 422042 425040 430035 435030 431028 428027 422034
      419038 415040 412038 411035 412033 413019 411015 409014
      407017 407022 407025 405027 403023 398015 393008 390004
      390998 389997 387000 388004 389013 389026 388036 385039
      380039 375037 372034 369031 370027 375017 382999 386997
      389993 389990 391987 404975 430954 442945 449940 452939
      458938 479937 484937 489938 492949 492956 493961 493973
      484990 480999 478011 476017 476024 474028 474031 476034
      480040 484042 491038 499034 504027 507024 512023 517023
      520020 527016 535014 538014 542015 545017 547013 551003
      555993 558982 560977 561971 562955 563913
 0.01 424753 422734 421732 417731 413734 412739 411742 411747
      401755 398758 398760 398764 396767 392772 390778 387784
      381787 370795 361803 362805 365807 360812 354821 351828
      351831 360823 370813 373810 376805 380803 383804 389806
      395796 397794 402795 409791 417785 420780 418776 419771
      422763 423756 424753
 0.01 429985 428980 426978 424980 422985 420989 419994 418001
      420003 422001 424997 426992 428987 429985
 0.01 430888 429886 427886 425886 423886 422886 420886 418886
      416886 415889 415891 413893 413896 415897 416896 417895
      418895 420894 422894 424894 425893 425892 427891 428890
      429889 430888
 0.01 409112 410106 410098 408096 404097 403102 399103 395103
      394107 393110 387113 381119 377126 380124 383122 389116
      394115 396113 400109 405112 406115 409112
 0.01 407033 407030 405028 404030 404033 405035 407033
 0.01 393743 392736 388736 385737 383735 382728 381713 381707
      381704 379702 352731 345736 336742 332744 329746 325745
      321743 315744 308750 305752 299755 294758 291761 288766
      287770 282778 280783 276786 272790 265792 255794 251797
      249800 246804 245809 244815 244821 249820 253817 258810
      262807 267805 275804 274801 270798 271796 278795 283795
      285799 290801 314800 323798 334794 340793 345790 353784
      358776 362772 366769 376764 381761 384757 391752 393743
 0.01 316892 316890 315888 314886 313888 313890 314892 315894
      316892
 0.25 513288 512284 513276 515259 514254 512249 506240 499233
      495230 496233 500242 498246 493243 487237 481235 476234
      468237 458237 455236 454241 457246 459248 462248 470250
      474254 475260 476265 474273 473277 474280 476285 478289
      482293 489300 497305 505308
 0.25 555958 556948 556937 555920 555909 554901 551883 551872
      550864 545847 541832 537818 534812 531806 526799 514776
      511770 509763 507754 505743 498709 495695 490685 488683
      486683 483687 483695 484706 487725 490743 492760 493771
      493779 493811 493819 493829 493838 490844 484854 481862
      477867 473878 470884 468890 464895 461899 454904 449908
      443911 439911 433914 430915 429914 433908 441901 451894
      461888 460885 455883 451884 447886 430902 421908 413909
      405909 400910 400908 398908 394911 391916 383924 376929
      370937 367944 365950 360962 358970 358980 359987 362991
      371983 379978 383976 386973 390968 394965 400965 406963
      416956 423947 430939 440932 458925 468919 479915 485912
      491909 495909 500911 505915 507921 509928 509936 509945
      508953 506966 503982 503992 507995 511999 517001 524001
      531000 536998 540994 547985 555958
 0.25 458837 457830 453829 450831 447834 443837 440840 437844
      437849 442847 446846 451843 454841 457838 458837
 0.25 421860 420855 415855 412858 409861 407864 403868 401871
      402876 407875 411873 414870 416868 419864 421860
 0.25 374731 372729 368729 363736 358742 350746 335753 327757
      321761 316767 314777 313780 314785 318787 322787 331785
      338781 344776 349771 355765 360758 364751 365747 368744
      370742 372738 374731
 0.25 310873 311871 311869 310867 310865 310863 308861 306863
      306865 306866 306867 307869 308871 308872 310873 310875
      310873
 0.25 301046 301044 300044 298045 297046 296047 295048 294049
      293050 292050 291052 290052 289054 290056 292055 293054
      294054 296052 298051 298050 300048 301046
 0.25 290056 289054 287055 286056 287056 288057 290056
 0.25 263080 264076 261073 257067 250065 244062 237058 232055
      229056 229061 232067 236073 240078 246082 250082 255081
      263081 263080
 0.50 547944 548934 548926 546908 543889 540874 540870 542867
      544863 543856 542849 537832 532821 527812 521802 517798
      514793 511786 509784 507784 502785 500789 497805 501823
      499838 495849 490861 487864 482868 481869 479875 479882
      474891 467900 460910 457914 457918 466913 476908 483901
      489897 492894 495891 498893 505902 512902 517905 519912
      519921 520938 519948 517955 515962 514972 515980 518986
      526989 530988 534984 541974 543967 544960 546950 547944
 0.50 508285 510270 509265 510257 508247 506245 504246 502251
      500258 497261 493261 489262 487265 485271 486282 488286
      491290 495293 501294 504292 506287 508285
 0.50 502744 501736 499727 496719 494713 492711 491716 491723
      492733 494743 496748 499755 501755 502752 502744
 0.50 488693 487691 486690 485692 485694 485695 487696 487697
      487696 488694 488693
 0.50 479241 478239 478238 477237 476238 475239 475240 475241
      476242 478242 479241
 0.50 436926 433923 431924 426926 417931 409937 406942 404947
      402951 398954 389950 392941 392932 391929 389928 381932
      376935 373938 370943 368948 365961 365967 366969 369970
      382971 386969 389965 393962 400962 408957 413954 416952
      428935 436926
 0.50 413919 413917 412915 410913 408913 407913 405913 403913
      401913 400915 400917 399920 400920 401922 403924 405924
      407924 408923 410922 412920 413919
 0.50 355755 355750 350749 344753 337757 330760 324764 322767
      321771 323780 327781 330781 336778 342772 346767 350762
      355755 355755
 1.00 498279 497276 495276 494277 495278 496279 498279 498279
 1.00 390959 390956 389956 388957 386959 385961 386963 387961
      388961 389959 390959
 1.00 382954 384949 383945 382941 379940 377940 375942 373944
      372947 371949 370953 370955 373955 374958 375963 378961
      380958 382956 382954
 1.00 346761 346758 342759 341760 337762 336763 333765 331767
      329769 328772 330775 333774 335773 338771 340769 342768
      343766 345763 346761

$$





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