Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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930
FXUS04 KWBC 260659
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 26/1200 UTC THRU MAY 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN
WILL ONCE AGAIN SPARK LATE DAY CONVECTION OVER THE FRONT RANGES
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AIDED BY THE STEEPENING 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES AND STRENGTHENING DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITHIN MODESTLY DIFFLUENT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. BETWEEN 00-12Z SAT...AN UPPER JET STREAK WILL
LIFT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...PLACING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITHIN
THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THE MODELS RESPOND WITH A
RATHER ROBUST AREA OF ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE/DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT...ALBEIT EXHIBIT N-S DIFFERENCES. MOREOVER...THERE WILL
ALSO BE A FAIRLY SHARP N-S INSTABILITY GRADIENT ALONG/NEAR THE
KS-NE BORDER OVERNIGHT... AS PW VALUES CLIMB TO AOA 1.25 " INTO
NORTHWEST KS. IN A PATTERN SUCH AS THIS...MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS GENERALLY FAVORED FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE MORE
THERMODYNAMICALLY-FAVORABLE AIRMASS (HIGHER CAPE/PW)...YET STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH (ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY) TO BENEFIT FROM THE UPPER
JET STREAK TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS.


...MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...

AS NOTED IN THE PMDHMD...THE GFS IS A DECIDED OUTLIER WITH RESPECT
TO THE REMNANT MESO/CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
OTHER MODELS AREN`T NEARLY AS BULLISH (I.E. DENOTE A FLATTER
WAVE)...AND AS SUCH...THE GFS IS A DECIDED WET AND NORTHERN
OUTLIER WITH THE STRIPE OF QPF. AT THE SAME TIME...EVEN THE
NON-GFS GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD...BOTH IN TERMS OF
LOCATION (N-S) AND AMOUNTS...ALONG A QUASI WEST-TO-EAST AXIS. FEEL
SOME OF THE HIGH-RES CAMS (RGEM...WRF-ARW...NMMB...AND PARALLEL
VERSIONS IN PARTICULAR) ARE PROBABLY TOO HEAVY WITH THE AMOUNTS
BETWEEN I-70 AND I-80...GIVEN THAT THE GREATER DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY (TIGHTER CAPE GRADIENT) AND STEEPER 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES ARE DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE DAMPENING MCV TRACK. WPCQPF
WAS FAIRLY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF...WHICH
NOTED MAXIMUM AREAL-AVERAGE TOTALS BETWEEN 0.50-1.0 INCH.


...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL LIFT N-NE
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AND THEN EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
TONIGHT. LINGERING WIDESPREAD MOD-HVY RAINFALL EARLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MATURE WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY
TO LINGERING SHOWERS AS THE MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTS
THROUGH. WPCQPF INCORPORATED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 565052 563055 560057 558057 551057 544055 540051 537049
      533049 529050 524047 516043 512040 510035 514032 515032
      516029 512025 511019 508006 510002 510997 510993 513989
      517986 515983 518981 525988 528992 530997 532999 534997
      536992 537979 535972 531968 527955 524949 518947 505945
      491945 479945 474944 470943 459942 455940 449940 444939
      440935 434931 429928 425925 422929 420939 418945 416950
      411953 407953 403951 400947 397941 397933 394932 393934
      372946 364952 362951 358951 353954 348956 344954 341949
      341944 341937 343932 346928 348923 359901 363889 364881
      363876 362873 369852 370846 373842 377841 382836 383831
      382821 375810 376803 379800 389792 396786 401783 403784
      407782 410785 410792 412798 413816 413820 415825 419830
      427838 434839 438839 439841 441846 442855 442869 444877
      447881 453881 459880 463877 467871 471867 477865 483863
      489862 498861 504862 513866 519870 522873 524875 524880
      521884 516886 510886 509888 512890 516894 519901 523906
      529907 540912 542912 544914 548914 555919 564941 567952
      569960
 0.01 515103 515098 514095 512092 511092 509092 506093 502093
      501093 502096 504096 505099 507102 510103 513103 515103
 0.01 486640 485635 482632 476630 469631 464631 455634 448638
      442640 434644 429649 426652 425656 427666 428668 429673
      428683 426686 423687 420687 418689 415694 414704 416716
      418735 420747 423754 428752 432750 435751 442753 448756
      453757 460756 471745 477732 480726 481721 481715 480704
      480696 481685 482675 484659 486648 486640
 0.01 488823 488821 487821 487823 488823 488823
 0.01 465104 459102 455097 453089 453084 454078 453070 451064
      446055 445051 446048 447042 446039 449022 450012 450003
      449997 446992 443987 438983 422981 414974 410971 405969
      399971 393974 389979 386986 385989 384987 382985 380986
      377990 375997 373997 369996 366995 364998 363005 367011
      371014 371021 371029 375033 380038 382039 383042 385051
      389057 394060 392065 390071 389079 392082 394083 394089
      394098 395101 397101 400095 401089 405085 406088 405093
      404100 403111 407116 411122 415124 417127 417131 415148
      414158 415161 419162 421159 422156 424153 428152 434160
      438163 445166 449163 455157 455151 453142 452135 453125
      454117 456110 458107 463107 465104
 0.01 394140 395131 395123 393120 393117 395114 392113 387114
      384116 383120 381126 384129 387128 388132 385138 388143
      391145 392142 394140
 0.01 287768 286766 283764 281763 276763 269764 264766 259770
      255776 251786 245797 241808 238815 239817 237822 238815
      238811 236808 234804 229805 225808 225815 226833 225839
      228843 233846 238846 239848 243848 246845 256822 259815
      264815 267811 267804 267800 264798 264796 266793 273785
      287768
 0.01 264013 264008 260006 256004 253002 247001 243002 242004
      245008 247010 251012 254015 260015 263013 264013
 0.25 565027 566016 566008 564993 561986 559982 555979 551979
      550993 550005 547011 544014 539016 535019 534026 538030
      546033 552036 556037 561035 564030 565027
 0.25 478645 476639 473637 464636 458638 453640 445645 442649
      441655 440667 439680 438692 437705 433713 432719 435723
      442718 456725 462724 464723 465720 467709 472685 476664
      477653 478645
 0.25 466908 466905 465905 463904 462905 461905 460908 460910
      460911 462911 464911 465910 466908
 0.25 446111 446105 445099 444094 442089 437083 439077 441075
      444074 444070 439062 437054 435045 440007 439002 437997
      434997 431000 427008 420003 414998 412989 410985 407983
      403982 398984 394991 393997 390000 385997 383998 383004
      388022 390031 392040 393045 396046 399042 401038 404037
      407038 409041 409047 413054 414059 414064 419067 421071
      421076 421090 421095 424100 427115 433119 439117 446111
 0.25 418891 419883 418875 417870 415865 412860 410854 407844
      405837 406829 405823 404816 402811 398807 395807 393810
      390824 391838 392854 394867 396872 400876 401880 401887
      404901 403907 401913 402924 404928 408929 410924 414920
      417912 417898 418891
 0.25 384875 384872 380870 378869 375870 372874 371882 370890
      368896 369900 371902 376900 380895 381890 380886 382879
      384875
 0.25 253814 253813 251812 250814 249815 249816 248818 249820
      250821 251820 252818 252816 253815 253814
 0.50 562021 562016 562010 562006 561002 559001 558004 558010
      557012 555017 554020 552023 551025 552028 555029 558029
      560028 561024 562021
 0.50 474644 470640 465640 459640 453643 448647 446651 445660
      446668 446677 445683 445692 446698 450702 453703 457701
      462697 465692 469681 473667 474652 474644
 0.50 434021 435012 435008 434005 432006 430010 429014 427017
      423016 418017 415021 413026 411033 411040 415050 418056
      422058 426061 426058 423053 422050 423046 427035 429028
      432025 434021
 0.50 415893 416886 414879 412876 408878 407882 406889 407896
      407903 406908 406915 408916 410916 413912 414907 414900
      415894 415893
 0.50 411024 411014 410008 408992 407989 405986 401986 399989
      398994 397000 397009 395008 390005 387006 387011 391025
      392032 395036 397036 397031 398023 398017 399014 400018
      402025 407027 411024
 0.50 406868 406861 406855 405848 402843 400840 397844 396848
      397855 397862 399867 402871 404871 406868
 1.00 465657 465652 464647 462645 459645 456647 454649 452651
      451654 452658 454659 456663 458665 459666 462666 463664
      464660 465657
 1.00 423029 423027 423026 421025 421024 421025 420027 420029
      420032 419034 419035 419036 419037 421038 421036 422034
      422032 423030 423029
 1.00 406012 407007 407003 407998 406996 405991 403990 401992
      400995 400000 401004 401007 402010 404012 406012
 1.00 395030 396027 396025 396023 396020 396018 395016 393015
      393016 392018 392020 392023 392025 393027 393028 394030
      395030 395030
 1.50 395027 395025 395023 395020 395019 394020 394023 394025
      394027 395028 395027

$$





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