Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 111830
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
230 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 12/0000 UTC THRU JUL 13/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1

...SOUTHEAST...

A COLD FRONT SLICING INTO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WILL MAKE VERY
LITTLE PROGRESS... AS THE FEATURE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND
LIKELY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER... MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO CARRY AN SHEAR AXIS OF VORTICITY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE NERN GULF COAST INTO SAT. THE COMBINATION
OF THE WEAK FORCING AND STEERING WITH POOLING OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE... PWS AOA 2 TO 2.25 INCHES... SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PEAK OF DAYTIME HEATING FROM EARLY AFTN TO LATE EVENING THOUGH A
FEW SPOTS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS. NO
LARGE SCALE AREAL AMOUNTS OR ORGANIZATION IS ANTICIPATED BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THE MOST LIKELY AXIS
FROM COASTAL SC TO SRN GA/NRN FL TO SRN MS/LA... WHILE ENHANCED
SEA BREEZE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.
OVERALL WPC FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE OF THE DATA ON QPF AMOUNTS WITH
UP TO AN INCH... BUT 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOWER MOVING STORMS.

...CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY AND PARTS OF
UPPER MIDWEST...

A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH... VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
WILL EJECT OUT OF NRN CO/SERN WY AND TRACK QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS
AND THE RESULTANT WILL BE AN AXIS OF CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT DIGGING
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF
A BUILDING MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DRY AIR
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WILL SETUP A VERY NARROW ZONE OF INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE POOLING. THE GUIDANCE... ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND
ECMWF... CAPTURE THIS SCENARIO AND DEPICT THE DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE
TRANSITIONING VERY FAST DOWNSTREAM. THE ACTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP
LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS SERN WY/NERN CO AS DEVELOPING CONVECTION
POSSIBLY MERGES INTO A CLUSTER AND ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM. THE COMPLEX
WILL THEN PROGRESS ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL NE AND SRN SD WITH SOME
MOISTURE BACKING NWWRD TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER NWRN SD/SWRN
ND. MEANWHILE... JUST AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT... ENOUGH OF
A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL SWRLY JET COULD YIELD SOME STORM
ACTIVITY/HEAVY RAIN ACROSS IA INTO NORTH CENTRAL IL. BY
MORNING/MIDDAY SAT INTO THE AFTN HRS... THE SMALL SCALE SYSTEM
WILL MERGE WITH THE WESTERLIES AND FRONT FOR POSSIBLY MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ACROSS IA/WI/MI INTO NRN/CENTRAL
IL/IN... THOUGH THIS LATTER PERIOD HAS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING BACK SOUTH AND WEST FROM THE COMPLEX COULD
ALSO SPIKE AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS ERN CO... ESPECIALLY IN NERN CO. OVERALL WPC STAYED VERY
CLOSELY TO A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND INTERNAL PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS AND A LIKELY WEST TO EAST
NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

MUSHER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 13/00Z
 0.01 535056 536043 535039 535032 535021 535015 534011 532990
      528973 526962 525950 524939 523936 521934 519922 519911
      518905 517902 512905 507910 503916 496929 492936 490944
      487952 487962 486966 486972 487976 487982 490000 496015
      498023 501031 504038 507045 512060 516068 519075 524079
      528076 531071 533065 534058 535056
 0.01 498786 497778 495774 485775 482779 479784 474794 469813
      467824 465828 461827 457827 453830 449832 446836 441843
      435840 431827 429826 424827 419827 416830 410833 397848
      395852 392858 394862 392868 387874 381879 374884 372887
      372893 380896 388901 394906 399913 401915 403921 400925
      398924 394921 393924 396929 399938 401943 403944 408947
      410952 410960 411967 411973 410979 408982 404985 401987
      401993 399997 401001 401005 399007 396012 392021 386026
      379030 373034 367041 363047 357051 343063 341068 336071
      332073 327073 323074 320077 313081 305078 300077 297073
      299062 300056 302052 306050 311051 314052 317050 320048
      320046 316039 315033 312029 309027 303027 298025 296022
      292024 289028 271037 256037 249040 241045 237049 233057
      233060 235064 239070 252082 257088 260092 262096 265105
      270113 276119 286125 290125 296126 299126 302123 304121
      307119 310117 313118 319119 322117 324111 326108 326104
      323104 323101 327101 336105 342111 347108 347099 348094
      353093 357093 360091 358086 362082 369076 372078 374082
      379083 381080 383075 387074 394077 401082 403086 402093
      402100 400105 398105 397102 396097 394094 392096 393101
      395103 394106 391109 387111 385115 386118 388117 394117
      397114 399112 402112 407115 416118 423115 428116 431119
      434122 435129 436134 437139 439144 440146 450144 456141
      459139 461135 463130 462125 461120 464117 464111 466107
      463101 458094 454083 453080 453076 455073 457073 464082
      467092 470093 471087 471075 473065 476054 478038 478012
      472991 470982 468972 468957 466952 466943 466938 467933
      469928 471922 473920 476921 482925 484922 485918 487912
      490908 495901 493807 496795 498786
 0.01 459857 458854 456855 455857 453860 452860 451862 451865
      452866 454866 455864 456862 457861 458859 459857
 0.01 446742 444737 436738 430741 426747 421758 418763 412764
      407766 403772 395779 393781 390780 385779 379784 376789
      371794 371802 366808 360818 356821 351820 346822 344824
      342823 342821 345816 347810 351800 354788 354782 356779
      360777 365773 366770 364768 360765 358759 360746 362735
      363733 362729 359727 354724 350726 347725 344725 341726
      339729 333739 323748 316755 314760 311765 305774 301778
      296781 289787 284789 277792 272794 265793 257795 250797
      243805 240809 239815 240822 245825 248825 249823 251818
      258824 259830 262835 286842 289843 290846 290853 289856
      286858 284862 282868 281877 281891 284904 284909 286915
      288921 291927 296930 297941 299947 304948 308945 311942
      314939 318936 327930 330926 335922 337917 333915 330914
      328913 326906 329900 331899 331895 327898 326900 324898
      320896 315895 315891 322881 325876 327871 330870 332865
      335861 337863 340863 342864 344862 345860 343858 340856
      338852 333848 334841 336836 339840 342839 344842 345845
      351844 356842 357837 363826 370820 375815 377809 380803
      382800 386798 390795 393790 396786 402784 408783 411781
      418772 430774 436764 442752 445747 446742
 0.01 445082 444081 443079 442079 441078 439078 438079 437081
      439082 441082 442082 444083 445082
 0.01 424232 425230 424228 424227 423226 421225 419225 417226
      416227 415228 415229 415231 415232 416233 417235 418235
      420234 422234 424232 424232
 0.01 428202 429199 428197 427196 426194 426193 424192 423191
      421192 419191 418192 418194 418197 420199 421201 423202
      423203 424203 426204 426203 428202 428202
 0.01 426155 426153 425152 425150 424149 423148 423147 421146
      420147 419148 418149 417151 416151 416153 417154 418156
      418157 420158 420159 421160 423161 424160 424157 425156
      426155
 0.01 422100 422095 422088 421083 418083 415087 415092 416099
      414104 414108 417110 419109 420105 421102 422100
 0.01 405158 406154 406151 403150 401153 400155 398159 396160
      394161 392163 392165 395166 398166 400164 402162 404160
      405158
 0.01 342829 342827 340826 339828 338830 340831 342829
 0.01 301888 300887 298888 297889 297891 298892 300891 300890
      301888
 0.25 517968 517960 515955 513944 512939 510937 508939 504949
      504957 505965 506978 507991 508004 511007 513004 515998
      515991 516975 517968
 0.25 482864 482862 480859 477858 475860 474865 474870 476875
      477877 478880 481879 482877 482872 482867 482864
 0.25 469038 470026 471019 470013 468005 465999 454971 453962
      453948 451941 450938 449932 451924 453914 451906 448901
      444893 444886 441879 436874 435863 435858 434853 432850
      429850 421865 417868 410868 405869 399872 394877 391883
      392886 395889 398891 401895 403903 405908 411921 414938
      416947 418957 418967 416976 414994 413010 411019 406024
      403028 396032 391036 387039 385042 385046 383049 379050
      377052 377055 381058 383058 399060 413062 414059 418058
      423062 430063 435070 446076 448072 447069 443064 436060
      436054 443037 446033 450029 454034 454043 456052 460055
      464052 467048 469038
 0.25 454098 453095 452092 449090 445092 442089 440088 437088
      435090 434092 434095 437098 439099 443100 446100 450100
      451100 454098
 0.25 443993 443992 441990 442988 441987 441988 441990 443993
      443993
 0.25 410103 411101 411099 411096 410094 410092 408092 408093
      407096 406096 406098 405100 405102 406104 406105 407106
      408105 409105 410103
 0.25 381067 380065 380064 378064 377064 375063 373062 371062
      370062 368063 368064 367066 367067 368068 369068 371069
      373069 374070 376071 377071 378071 380069 381067
 0.25 364070 364069 363067 362065 360064 360065 359066 358067
      357069 357071 358073 358074 360074 362073 363072 364070
      364070
 0.25 354762 352746 350742 346743 340749 335756 314788 307795
      303803 290814 284817 282818 279817 277814 271815 267812
      267807 273801 257803 252804 249807 254816 257819 262822
      269826 273828 278827 286831 292832 295835 298845 298853
      300867 301874 305876 309875 311870 311857 312852 314848
      321840 324831 327821 328817 332814 335811 338805 340796
      342792 346789 348785 349782 346774 348769 352765 354762
 0.25 340098 341096 341093 340091 339091 337092 336093 336095
      336097 336098 338099 340098 340098
 0.25 340085 340082 339081 338080 337080 336080 334078 332077
      331077 329077 327078 326079 326081 327082 327083 328084
      330085 331086 332086 333087 335087 337087 338086 339086
      340085
 0.25 313105 312100 310098 307096 300093 297089 288082 283078
      278077 272077 265077 262078 263080 266085 272096 277105
      280110 285113 291116 298117 301116 303114 303110 306108
      310107 313105
 0.25 308043 308041 308039 306038 304037 303038 302040 304042
      306043 307043 308043
 0.25 310911 308907 304906 300904 297903 291903 290908 291914
      293918 296920 299922 303922 306918 308916 310911
 0.25 290805 291803 289802 287802 285801 283801 281801 280800
      279800 279801 278802 277803 278803 280804 281804 283805
      285805 287806 289806 290805
 0.50 458020 457018 456015 454013 452010 449008 446009 444012
      446017 447019 449022 451023 454024 457023 458020
 0.50 440918 440908 438900 436894 436887 433880 431879 429881
      425883 420886 418884 419881 420877 418874 414874 403874
      399875 396878 394880 395885 401890 404892 406897 409906
      413913 415924 417936 419946 422966 421972 419978 418988
      416997 416003 416010 416022 414030 412036 414041 419039
      426049 430049 433042 433038 431032 429022 428019 428012
      429003 433992 436983 438975 439968 438963 437958 438952
      438940 438931 440918
 0.50 426871 427869 426869 426872 426871
 0.50 408054 407049 405047 403047 399046 396041 392040 389042
      387047 388054 391055 397056 402057 407056 408054
 0.50 350760 347752 347747 344748 336762 334767 331769 327775
      322782 317787 312792 309795 308799 305807 306810 311810
      317810 322808 327808 331807 331802 327801 322802 320799
      322789 325783 331781 333779 336771 342766 344763 348761
      350760
 0.50 316830 316828 315826 314826 313825 311826 310826 309827
      307828 306829 307831 308831 309833 310833 311833 313833
      315832 316830
 0.50 303101 300098 296095 291094 285095 283097 283103 284106
      287110 291112 296113 299112 300110 299106 301103 303101
 0.50 308869 307867 306867 306869 306871 308869
 0.50 307861 307859 306856 306854 305854 304852 303851 302853
      302855 303857 304858 304859 305861 306862 307861
 0.50 303819 303817 299815 295816 292817 290818 287820 285823
      287826 289827 291826 294825 296824 300822 302821 303819
 0.50 304914 305912 304911 303909 302909 301909 299909 297909
      296910 295911 295912 295914 295915 296916 297917 298918
      299919 301918 303917 303916 304914 304914
 0.50 277824 275819 271818 268816 264813 262809 260806 256808
      256814 257817 261820 265822 269824 272825 277824
 1.00 435980 435973 434969 432959 429955 429950 429943 428940
      425929 423926 419925 418931 419936 421945 426953 428957
      427964 423985 420993 419999 419006 420017 422027 424032
      426028 426018 426004 427994 435980
 1.00 428909 427907 426906 425907 424909 425912 426912 427910
      428909
 1.00 415900 415898 413896 411894 410896 410898 412900 412901
      413901 415901 415900
 1.00 409882 408880 407879 406879 404878 403878 402878 400878
      399880 398881 399881 400883 402885 404886 406886 408886
      409884 409883 409882
 1.00 392050 393048 392045 391048 390049 390050 392051 392050
 1.00 316798 316796 316794 315793 314794 313794 312796 312797
      311799 310801 310803 311804 312803 313803 314801 315800
      316799 316798
 1.00 261817 261815 260814 259815 260817 261817 261817
 1.50 433978 433976 433973 433972 432971 431969 430969 428971
      428972 427973 426975 426978 426980 425982 425985 425987
      426989 428988 428987 429985 430985 431983 432980 433979
      433978
 1.50 423020 423018 423015 423013 424011 424008 424006 424004
      424002 423001 422000 422001 421003 421006 422008 422011
      422013 421015 422015 422018 423020 423021 423020
 1.50 425945 425942 425940 424939 424938 423935 423933 421931
      420933 420935 421937 421938 422940 422942 423944 424945
      424946 425945
 2.00 430980 431978 431975 429973 429975 428978 428980 429981
      430980

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