Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 030836
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
336 AM EST TUE MAR 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 03/1200 UTC THRU MAR 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1


GT LAKES/NE SWWD ACRS THE OH/MID MS AND TN VALLEYS...

STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA PATRN SETTING UP IN ADVANCE OF POS
TILTED UPR TROF EJECTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST THROUGH THE
SRN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO POTNL HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN ACRS PARTS
OF THE OH/MID MS AND TN VALLEYS WITH WINTRY MIX LIKELY FARTHER
NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND.  MODELS SHOW REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING INITIAL SFC LOW MOVING ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST EARLY TUES IN
RESPONSE TO WEAKENING S/WV EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF A MORE AMPLIFIED
UPR TROF DVLPG SWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS TUES/TUES NIGHT.  THIS LEAD
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH RAPIDLY NEWD WITH A BAND OF WAA PCPN
SPREADING RAPIDLY ACRS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NE AS ASSOCD WARM
FRONT LIFTS NWD THRU THE MID ATLC REGION TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND.
TRAILING PORTION OF ASSOCD COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THROUGH
SRN OH VALLEY AS MAIN HEIGHT FALLS LIFT INTO CANADA LEADING WHICH
WILL ALLOW DEEP LAYERED SLWLY FLOW WITH PWS OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES TO
FOCUS ALONG THE BNDRY TUES NIGHT.  THE HIGH PWS ALONG WITH 85H
WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL PROVIDE STRONG MSTR FLUX
ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT...AND LIKELY LEADING TO SOME
HEAVY RAINS FROM PARTS OF AR NEWD INTO THE CNTL APLCNS.  WHILE
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LACKING..THE DEEP LAYERED SWLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO POTENTIAL TRAINING/REPEAT CELL ACTIVITY.  HAVE SHIFTED
AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINS SLIGHTLY N OF NDFD AMOUNTS GIVEN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINS.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
PLUS INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED HERE.  ACRS NEW ENGLAND...THE NAM
SEEMED A TAD ON THE HIGH END OF AMOUNTS SO DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR
FROM CONTINUITY WHICH INDICATED .25 TO .50 INCH AREA AVG AMOUNTS.


GT BASIN EWD INTO THE CNTL/SRN ROCKIES...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MDT SNOWS EXPECTED ACRS THIS REGION IN
RESPONSE TO ENERGY DROPPING SEWD FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
AS WELL AS INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD FROM
THE NRN PLAINS.  THE NAM SHOWED A LITTLE MORE OF THE S/WV ENERGY
ACRS SRN CA GETTING PULLED NEWD AHEAD OF HEIGHT FALLS DROPPING SWD
FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION..BUT IT SEEMED TO BE ON ITS OWN
THERE AND THUS PERHAPS A BIT OVERDONE WITH .10 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS
OVER WRN KS..BUT OTHERWISE...MODELS GENLY SUPPORT SOME MDT QPF
AMOUNTS ACRS THE MTNS OF CNTL/WRN CO WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHTER AMOUNTS
ACRS THE WASATCH.

DAYS 2/3...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

AMPLIFIED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO CHANNEL AMPLE MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO FALL ALONG A SLOW MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON DAY
2.  SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
THROUGH THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE REMNANT ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF SOUTHERN CA THROUGH
NORTHERN MEX/THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S....SPURRING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT FROM
THE LOWER MS VALLEY WED EVENING...REACHING SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY EARLY THU.   MOISTURE THROWN BACK INTO DEEPENING COLD
AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LATE SEASON
WINTER STORM FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY...NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC.  REFER TO THE WPC WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS
CONCERNING EXPECTED SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS.  THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC ON
THU...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS MOST AREAS BY THU EVENING.
AS NOTED IN THE PMDHMD...SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH
RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...TRANSLATING INTO DISPARITIES
IN AXES OF HEAVIER QPF.  WPC AMOUNTS GAVE SIGNIFICANT WEIGHT TO
THE GFS AND ECMWF...WITH SOME CREDENCE GIVEN TO THE SLOWER UKMET
AS WELL.  HOWEVER...GENERALLY DISCOUNTED THE NAM WHICH A SLOWER
OUTLIER IN COMPARISON TO THE REMAINING 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF.

SULLIVAN/PEREIRA

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 442630 451629 460629 468628 474628 477630 483633 489639
      495645 501650 505654 507658 513664 518670 522675 536716
      539750 537775 517806 521813 521818 520824 520834 519845
      518848 518855 518859 520862 522864 535875 538877 540881
      543892 547901 550911 552917 552922 550926 548932 543941
      541947 539949 537949 521950 510950 504955 493960 485963
      481967 476969 473972 469975 466979 461982 458985 455990
      451000 449004 448014 446019 447024 447031 450035 455053
      457062 458071 459082 459095 458101 457103 454110 446114
      438117 435120 434126 432129 431137 422156 419159 416159
      406157 404158 404162 405165 404170 402174 397180 395182
      392179 390177 390172 390168 390161 390153 394149 402144
      407143 410142 414140 414138 413135 410132 406133 375145
      356130 343118 337113 337110 337104 339100 344099 350106
      351110 355113 356115 361118 367117 371115 375113 378108
      379104 375103 368104 364103 362102 358094 363078 364075
      363071 360069 359065 363053 367051 369048 364041 361037
      359036 352031 346023 339019 335020 332023 325030 323034
      322039 321043 320049 317054 317060 319058 321054 325054
      334056 336058 335060 326064 320068 317073 317079 318088
      320091 321097 323107 322120 323124 322128 321129 312131
      309135 310140 314146 317153 321157 327162 331164 333166
      332169 327171 326173 329176 334183 336187 337193 334202
      330201 326199 318194 312187 303171 299161 291161 285164
      278167 275169 271168 266163 266157 268153 268149 270144
      273139 276138 282135 284134 284131 280128 277121 274112
      270113 263112 258110 255107 253105 250105 245107 242105
      240100 239098 241094 245089 240084 243078 249072 253067
      259064 264063 271063
 0.01 271063 280064 286062 288060 290058 289055 287049 286041
      286035 288029 292026 298023 303021 308020 311017 312014
      309011 300005 296002 293996 290990 284987 270982 260979
      254977 253975 255972 263963 268957 272952 278944 281939
      285935 292923 295916 299909 299905 300903 300901 303900
      313894 326868 330863 331861 332858 328846 326838 328833
      331824 336821 340808 345796 349784 351781 351775 349769
      347769 343767 343761 352751 359740 363733 365726 373704
      377696 378689 379680 382674 384667 386662 392652 398646
      405642
 0.01 424025 425016 423013 423008 422003 420994 417966 413951
      409942 407936 403929 394925 391925 389927 384931 379938
      376954 375963 374967 373976 372979 372983 374988 377992
      381997 385001 394007 400995 410991 414991 415994 415999
      415003 417005 417013 418018 418027 421027 424025
 0.25 483842 475781 467739 468733 467724 466719 463715 464709
      464705 467702 469697 468689 465681 461673 455664 450657
      443649 440647 434647 414659 406663 401669 396677 393687
      387708 385721 384733 385738 387743 390750 395758 397763
      398770 395780 390788 376803 366816 360821 356823 352823
      348826 346830 344834 343841 345846 349852 351856 352863
      346906 344917 341927 336939 334949 331959 332969 333975
      337976 343971 350964 355956 364936 368928 373921 382906
      401867 403863 407861 413866 423879 430885 433888 438888
      451887 455886 459882 468867 474862 477863 480859 482849
      483842
 0.25 454725 453723 451723 447722 444723 440726 439728 437730
      436732 438733 440735 442737 445736 448734 449731 451729
      454727 454725
 0.25 412071 409061 409056 406052 399048 394049 395053 394058
      391060 385065 380071 380077 381081 386084 389084 393083
      396080 403074 410072 412071
 0.25 399115 399113 398112 397113 396113 394112 392113 390114
      389116 388117 387118 388119 390119 390118 392118 394118
      395117 396117 397116 399115
 0.25 308089 306084 303080 298075 293073 280070 267068 262070
      258073 257084 256092 256098 261102 266103 279103 290100
      300097 306093 308089
 0.25 299152 299151 297150 297149 296148 295147 294146 294145
      293144 291143 289143 287143 287144 286145 285147 287149
      288150 290150 292150 294151 295151 297152 299152 299152
 0.50 429683 427680 424680 419682 409688 404691 401695 397704
      396707 397712 400714 401720 403725 404727 407725 412722
      415718 420709 423698 427688 429683
 0.50 427791 426783 424778 421774 417771 413771 410772 402778
      397786 390792 384797 379805 376815 371825 366843 356884
      350906 344923 341934 338946 339952 341954 345954 348951
      354943 359933 368920 372910 377901 384884 394866 398858
      400848 403838 408828 416814 420808 423801 427791
 0.50 303089 301083 298080 294077 289075 278071 269071 263072
      261076 261088 261095 264099 274100 285098 294095 299093
      302090 303089
 1.00 413791 412786 409784 405785 401788 391795 386801 385804
      385809 387813 387818 385825 380832 376839 371853 361883
      356901 353916 350924 349930 352930 359917 368905 374893
      382877 387865 393847 397832 403816 408803 413791
 1.00 296088 294083 288079 284076 278074 271074 268075 267078
      266087 269092 274094 282095 287093 291092 296088
 1.50 396800 396798 395797 393797 392798 391799 390800 390801
      390803 390804 392804 394804 395803 395801 396800
 1.50 387849 387845 387841 385839 382841 379844 376848 373859
      369869 365880 363886 362892 362896 364898 366900 371891
      376882 380871 384861 387849
 1.50 364903 364901 363901 363898 362897 361898 360900 360901
      360903 360904 361905 362906 363905 362904 361903 362902
      362903 364904 364903
 1.50 289087 289083 286081 285080 281079 279078 276076 272077
      271079 271083 271087 273088 277090 280090 284089 286089
      289087
 2.00 379868 379866 378864 377865 375866 374869 373870 373871
      372873 372875 373878 374879 374878 375876 375875 376873
      377872 377871 378869 379868

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 479617 487622 491625 493634 497646 498653 497659 493679
      492685 490690 484697 474711 472714 466716 461716 458721
      451728 443733 443724 445717 447711 450706 459699 467693
      469689 471684 470677 466676 462676 459674 446661 442660
      440664 439675 435695 431719 430730 429735 430740 434742
      438746 439750 437756 436761 433766 431778 428788 422794
      413811 411819 409830 404852 402863 401868 400875 398885
      396897 395902 394911 394919 393926 392931 391936 388947
      384959 382963 382967 384976 387988 389997 390001 390007
      390014 392019 393024 396026 398030 400036 399043 401049
      405053 404054 400058 398062 396065 389063 386060 384058
      381057 376056 372057 375066 380074 379079 376077 374073
      372071 369071 360069 359085 354080 350079 347083 344086
      344093 344099 346104 348108 347111 340113 337110 335108
      331110 326109 321110 309125 305125 302123 297117 291109
      285103 274092 269087 261084 252084 248085 243085 238083
      238077 241072 245069 245065 246062 248060 252058 257059
      262060 266063 274067 279070 282072 287078 291080 296078
      306076 309078 311077 313073 318069 321069 321066 320062
      314057 309054 303055 297061 297056 296051 289046 290043
      288037 286033 282028 274026 265021 252011 241997 238993
      236989 237977 243971 246969 250965 255960 261957 264954
      268952 270947 270943 272938 274931 275925 275919 278908
      279896 282888 284884 285879 289870 294862 298857 304851
      315839 317836 317832 321826 326817 329812 327807 327801
      330796 333793 337788 347774 352766 357757 358752 358749
      357748 351755 348761 345765 341766 338769 337764 337758
      338754 339749 342744 345734 347730 349725 353717 358709
      362704
 0.01 362704 365699 368696 370693 373688 374685 377680 378677
      381672 382667 383664 386659 389656 391653 394649 397646
      399643
 0.01 484867 484856 480849 477843 476832 475829 473826 471825
      467826 464827 462831 460837 455842 452843 449845 451852
      455855 461858 463866 466875 466885 465895 465898 467901
      470900 472897 475892 476888 477883 479875 484867
 0.01 325081 325078 323076 322074 320076 320078 320080 321082
      323082 325081
 0.25 425660 424652 422645 418644 413645 409647 406651 401657
      391671 382685 377694 373702 370710 368720 374741 376744
      375747 371756 367764 363773 359793 353809 351819 348827
      344836 339843 334849 327855 322861 318869 311884 302901
      299909 298913 297919 298927 299938 301946 301956 297968
      297972 297977 310987 312990 316993 321993 324991 329984
      334979 350969 360958 364952 368945 373936 376927 386886
      391866 395849 407809 412788 414769 417745 418734 419723
      421702 423682 424670 425660
 0.25 336054 336053 335051 334051 332051 331051 329052 328053
      328055 329056 330057 332058 334057 335056 336055 336054
 0.25 284005 285001 285997 284994 280993 278995 275996 273997
      270999 269003 269005 269007 271009 274010 278010 280009
      282007 284005
 0.25 267072 267070 264068 262066 260065 257063 256063 253064
      251065 250069 252071 254072 256075 258076 261076 263075
      265074 267072
 0.50 420676 419668 418661 413655 408656 404658 399665 391676
      383692 379701 376710 384715 385724 384734 383744 380752
      376761 372768 370776 368786 365805 365810 365815 361822
      355828 351835 347842 343850 340858 335864 327875 321883
      318890 312907 308912 306921 307929 309939 310944 310949
      308958 308964 310966 316971 317975 317980 317984 320985
      321984 326979 330970 355950 360944 364936 369920 380884
      386867 391851 396832 402814 405798 407788 407775 408765
      410754 411733 415716 418698 419686 420676
 1.00 404729 401728 399731 397737 394750 390762 388767 386772
      382776 379782 377787 376794 379798 381803 380806 374815
      367824 361834 357843 355850 355857 350871 346882 337904
      325924 321935 317945 317950 318954 319957 322958 334955
      339953 343950 346947 350941 355930 360918 363907 369896
      374884 378873 386849 390836 394825 400800 401791 400788
      398785 394783 392782 391778 394768 396754 402741 404733
      404729
 1.50 391812 391806 388805 384810 376821 370826 366831 364837
      363842 364847 363852 362856 359863 356869 354877 352884
      349890 342904 335915 329928 326936 326940 328941 335940
      340936 344930 348925 352920 355912 361899 367886 373872
      378859 384843 388829 391812
 2.00 379834 379832 378830 376831 375832 375834 374835 373836
      373837 372840 372841 371842 372843 372844 374845 375844
      377841 378839 378837 378836 379834
 2.00 347917 346912 344915 341917 339919 338921 336923 335926
      333928 334930 336930 338928 340926 343923 344921 346919
      347917

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 510297 502290 498287 496282 489272 484263 482258 481251
      474243 473242 473238 474233 477234 487237 494242 494236
      492231 488227 484222 476220 470219 468214 471210 474208
      478205 482203 488204 493205 499208 502212 506221 509227
      512232 514235 513239 512247 514251 517256 523262
 0.01 429634 437645 439653 437661 438671 440679 437698 434711
      435717 436719 441724 442728 437732 431736 425741 424749
      424753 426755 428755 430758 432761 433766 435769 436776
      436781 434784 430776 423781 421787 417787 417781 418778
      419776 416774 413779 411785 408801 406806 402813 396826
      389840 381852 368871 361881 356888 353888 352886 354879
      349873 342876 340879 340882 331898 327912 326920 325926
      323933 319937 314943 309942 305939 303937 301935 299937
      296941 291945 289952 289957 290960 294967 294971 292975
      284988 279997 275001 275010 283019 283023 281024 276024
      274022 268021 264015 258019 252021 243012 241009 241003
      241992 241985 237980 233975 231971 231967 231960 232953
      233945 235941 240937 243931 246925 242918 237909 240899
      243892 248881 253871 257866 261863 269853 278845 288837
      295821 298815 293812 284805 274802 267800 259802 255803
      253805 249811 247813 245811 244808 245805 254795 284785
      293778 302769 307765 311758 315746 317732 320717 328705
      332699 338694 346685 353679 359675 364669 368664 374660
      386653 394645
 0.01 537213 539200 539194 537189 534182 530175 529172 527169
      523165 522162 513150 508146 502144 491137 488134 484132
      481130 477129 473128 471129 472138 478140 486145 488149
      490150 492153 492157 488156 484153 481150 477152 468144
      466142 462141 459143 461146 468160 469163 473164 476167
      480168 484169 487172 491178 494185 496189 499192 507194
      509198 508204 511210 516217 524220 531222 535218 537213
 0.01 535112 536106 536099 533092 529084 525078 516067 513066
      510062 506055 503049 500046 497046 493045 490046 489058
      495074 497083 501088 506094 514095 523108 527114 531114
      533113 535112
 0.01 513897 513889 513885 511882 509877 507875 504872 501867
      495860 492858 486858 480859 478858 477855 477847 475840
      472838 469840 469846 468850 466848 463851 461854 472868
      471880 468890 468898 470905 472910 475910 480902 482900
      485899 490900 498906 505908 510903 513897
 0.01 479860 477857 475858 474860 475862 477862 479860
 0.01 450826 449819 447816 445812 442808 438806 434806 435811
      435818 439820 442822 444825 448826 450826
 0.01 436864 435864 431862 429862 426860 424860 422862 421863
      421865 423867 424869 428869 431869 433869 436866 436864
 0.25 522267 516263 513261 511257 508243 501230 497224 495221
      494225 496232 499238 503245 505252 505255 502256 496256
      495254 491253 492260 498273 500277 503279 507277 511270
      516273 519275
 0.25 522186 520183 519180 516177 515176 512174 509172 508172
      505173 505175 507177 510180 511181 514183 516185 519186
      522186
 0.25 491216 490216 489213 487212 486212 484211 483212 482212
      480213 480214 481216 482217 483218 485218 487218 488219
      490219 491216
 0.25 424660 423655 420650 416646 412646 402650 395655 386661
      378668 371675 367683 364692 360702 357712 354721 351730
      348742 342759 339770 337774 334780 332789 331794 332799
      336801 342801 344802 345806 345813 346819 349821 353822
      357819 370804 382791 387785 394775 402758 409738 412728
      416719 423698 424687 425676 424660
 0.25 285939 283931 282929 279928 268933 263938 257941 250943
      243943 238947 237951 237955 237963 239969 240972 244973
      249974 255975 261976 266976 268976 270972 277962 280956
      282949 285939
 0.50 417669 417664 416658 413655 411653 404656 398660 386670
      382674 380677 379682 380686 380690 377698 373712 371719
      371729 372736 369741 362755 360761 356768 353773 350780
      351784 352788 353793 355795 360790 364782 370770 378757
      384756 390751 394745 399739 404727 410711 413696 416681
      417669

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