Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 180621
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
220 AM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 18/1200 UTC THRU JUN 19/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...GT LAKES/NE SWWD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS..LOWER MS
VALLEY..AND SRN PLAINS...

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
ACRS THE NRN/MID MS VALLEY AS STG JET HELPS CARVE OUT AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ACRS THIS REGION THROUGH THE GT LAKES
THROUGH MON MORNING.  BACKING MID/UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF
WILL ALLOW DEEP MSTR WITH PWS APCHG 2 INCHES TO STREAM NEWD AHEAD
OF ASSOCD COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EWD INTO NY STATE
SUN NIGHT WHILE TRAILING PORTION SLOWS ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE
STRONGER WLYS NEAR THE RED RIVER ACRS THE SRN PLAINS.  THE BACKING
FLOW AND AMPLIFYING RT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN ASSOCD UPPER JET EAST
OF THE TROF WILL GRADUALLY ENHANCE BROADER SCALE ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT FROM THE TN/OH VALLEY NEWD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND..WHICH ALONG WITH EXPECTED DECENT WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MDT TO HEAVY RAIN RATES ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY EWD SUN/SUN NIGHT..ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING.  WITH THE MID/UPR FLOW BECOMING MORE ALIGNED
WITH THE FRONT/PREFRONTAL CONVECTION...POTNL WILL EXIST FOR SOME
TRAINING ELEMENTS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN SPOTS. WITH
EVEN HIER INSTABILITIES AND DEEPER MSTR FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF POTNL MCVS
TRACKING ESEWD FROM SAT NIGHT CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF ERN
KS/MO..EXPECT STORMS TO REFIRE AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES ON SUN
LEADING TO MDT TO HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS.  FARTHER WEST ALONG THE
TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT...HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS ARE ALSO
LIKELY TO REFIRE ALONG THE BNDRY LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT AS SUFFICIENT
HEATING/INSTABILITY AND POOLING OF MSTR HELPS BREAK CAP ACRS
PORTIONS OF NE TX/SE OK.  PATRN HERE IS SUGGESTIVE OF POTNL BACK
BUILDING OF CONVECTION SUN NIGHT ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH PSBL
MCS DVLPMENT AS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FORM UNDER ANTICYCLONIC EWD
EXTENSION OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS.  WHILE THERE IS SOME DECENT SPREAD
IN THE 00Z HI RES GUIDANCE AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER
RAINS ACRS NE TX/SE OK...ALL SHOW A STG SIGNAL FOR POTNL HEAVY
RAIN THREAT ACRS THAT AREA SUN NIGHT WITH LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES.  MANUAL QPF KEPT MAXIMUM AREAL AVG AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES GIVEN THE MODEST MODEL SPREAD.

ACRS THE GT LAKES...MDTLY HEAVY RAINS AREA LIKELY FIRST HALF OF PD
AS DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVES NEWD THRU THE U.P. OF MI.  THERE IS
DECENT MODEL CLUSTERING HERE FOR .50 TO 1+" AMOUNTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE U.P. OF MI WHICH WAS GENLY FOLLOWED.


...SOUTH TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...

THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL HELP ADVECT 2.00 TO
2.25"+ PW VALUES NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
PERIOD.  INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS ABOVE AVERAGE---2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE THE MEAN PW AXIS--- WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY TOTALS TO LARGE PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL FLORIDA.


SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 19/12Z
 0.01 521261 520258 518258 515253 510242 504229 500219 494214
      488212 482211 478213 495229 499244 498248 496247 493243
      491240 488238 485243 481240 478235 476234 474238 473244
      478254 490277 492292 495298 499301 505300 509295 512292
      515285 518270 519263 521261
 0.01 532787 531782 529774 525758 524740 521718 520710 519704
      517689 517682 516679 512662 503648 500644 498646 488649
      484656 481665 477673 472679 465687 462692 458696 452703
      447707 440711 433716 427722 421729 418733 414736 408741
      405743 402748 400752 396755 388760 381766 380768 380774
      377778 374781 369784 363787 359788 358779 357777 354777
      350780 347785 344787 341786 338782 347767 353760 361754
      367748 373742 385731 392724 397717 399714 398708 393703
      388704 383707 378709 373713 363719 354726 341738 334744
      327750 322754 316759 305771 298776 292780 283785 270786
      258788 244790 239793 235797 230806 231818 232822 234826
      237834 241844 244852 247858 253865 259869 267873 270874
      275874 281873 285871 290866 294864 297859 300855 300851
      302848 301845 304842 306845 306850 305856 303861 296876
      285893 282900 280903 280909 281915 282920 284923 288924
      303931 309928 313925 315924 317926 317957 317972 319986
      325007 327010 333010 335008 337002 343984 348985 354978
      369949 372945 371936 370919 369907 377898 391887 400870
      416863 419861 425860 429862 431864 430869 429873 428877
      428884 427890 427900 433905 439912 447921 455928 464935
      470939 477945 477956 477964 477968 475971 469967 464962
      455947 450940 444934 429926 426926 423932 420938 422944
      426954 430961 433966 438973 443978 450986 457991 469002
      475009 481017 486023 491030 498045 506064
 0.01 506064 509071 512073 515069 517062 519051 520040 520034
      518025 512011 507001 502995 498989 492977 489969 489965
      488961 488956 490952 491952 492947 495933 494924 493922
      492916 491906 490896 490887 490881 491879 496873 502870
      507868 512866 516864 520863 522862 523858 526844 529836
      530827 531820 530809 530800 531795 532787
 0.01 387203 388198 385195 381192 378189 375186 372183 366182
      364184 365189 368192 372195 375197 380199 383202 387204
      387203
 0.01 331833 328832 326834 322836 321836 317837 315837 312836
      310839 312843 314844 318845 321843 323841 325840 327837
      329835 331833
 0.01 329805 324804 321801 318801 317802 313805 309806 306809
      303812 308814 313813 319812 322810 325809 327807 329805
 0.01 289852 288845 286841 280841 275841 264842 255842 251840
      248839 247841 252848 257854 262861 268867 274866 277865
      281862 284858 289852
 0.25 509283 507277 506273 503268 500265 498260 495257 492256
      491258 492264 494269 496273 498279 501282 504284 507284
      509283
 0.25 518798 518786 517780 515777 504770 501765 499760 500744
      506717 507700 506685 504677 500670 496668 493671 488676
      480685 473695 467704 463708 458713 455716 449718 445720
      440725 432735 424748 416757 414758 412755 409755 407756
      403761 401766 400769 401773 405772 406773 405775 399783
      394791 390797 384802 374808 367817 360826 357835 352844
      349849 341851 337852 331850 327851 324853 318857 315862
      315866 319867 326866 332863 337861 339860 340863 339869
      335873 331877 325879 320881 316886 314889 314893 315896
      325903 328910 329914 328920 325933 323948 323955 323961
      325968 327974 329978 333981 336981 338980 342976 348962
      353959 359953 360937 361922 363909 364903 367898 369894
      373888 381881 389870 396855 402844 408835 420820 426811
      428808 428803 428798 430795 434791 437788 439790 437798
      436802 437809 436817 437826 440831 446833 450833 452840
      451856 450865 451875 453882 455889 456891 460893 463893
      465891 468885 473878 477875 481870 490863 497858 503849
      510837 514825 518810 518798
 0.25 376728 375724 374723 369725 362730 356735 349741 343748
      338754 339758 344757 351753 357747 364741 370734 376728
 0.25 310907 311903 309899 308899 306899 304901 302904 301907
      300910 299914 301918 303919 306918 308916 308913 310909
      310907
 0.25 305827 304824 302824 299823 294818 288814 284808 280801
      275798 262794 253796 248798 242804 241811 241817 242821
      246821 261825 267829 274829 284828 291829 300829 305827
 0.50 512804 511798 510796 507796 500793 497791 492792 487796
      478802 474808 467826 461847 459860 458871 460877 464876
      469870 478865 484860 492856 497850 506833 509822 511812
      512804
 0.50 501705 501696 499687 498684 496682 493682 484687 477694
      468712 458726 454728 449727 446725 444727 440731 429748
      424755 419764 411778 363836 358846 353858 348866 343873
      339879 335887 333892 329895 329900 331904 333918 329931
      327943 325955 327964 328969 330973 332976 335977 339976
      341973 343967 344961 348958 353956 356954 356951 356943
      355939 354932 353927 365891 370880 374877 378872 390858
      406827 414818 420808 428789 433781 437772 445756 451747
      454745 456752 452762 449773 448782 449795 450800 455803
      459802 463799 470790 473785 475778 483758 490743 494734
      498722 500712 501705
 0.50 332856 332854 331853 329853 327854 326855 324857 323857
      322859 322860 323862 324862 326861 328861 329860 331859
      331858 332856
 0.50 286823 283819 279817 269812 263805 260801 255800 251800
      247802 244807 243811 244817 248816 253816 257818 266823
      270825 275826 281826 285824 286823
 0.50 272801 270801 268801 267802 266802 267802 268803 270803
      272802 272801
 1.00 489709 489702 488698 485698 483700 478711 473725 469738
      469747 467752 466760 466765 467769 467775 470774 473769
      476755 480744 485730 487716 489709
 1.00 496835 497825 495817 490813 487812 484813 481818 478823
      475830 475837 477845 479847 481847 485848 488847 492843
      495837 496835
 1.00 474855 474853 473851 473850 471849 470848 468849 468851
      467853 468856 468858 469858 470860 472859 473858 474857
      474855
 1.00 439745 438743 435747 430753 422766 413783 404793 392807
      388813 382817 376824 372831 368837 366845 369844 373841
      377835 386822 398810 408800 414793 416790 418789 418792
      412807 408816 412814 414812 421797 426788 427780 425779
      423781 420785 420780 425770 429764 430767 432765 436758
      437749 439745
 1.00 419787 420785 419785 418785 419787 419787
 1.00 394844 393840 392840 391842 389845 387847 386850 385852
      383855 382858 381861 382861 385859 387858 389856 390854
      392850 393847 394844
 1.00 360887 360879 359872 359863 360860 358858 353867 348875
      342884 340890 339895 337908 340914 342917 346914 349910
      353900 358892 360887
 1.00 341954 341950 340947 338945 336944 332945 331947 330952
      330956 331960 332962 334965 337965 339963 340960 341956
      341954
 1.50 355885 354882 352880 349881 347883 346886 345888 344893
      344897 346900 348899 350897 352894 353892 354888 355885

$$





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