000
FXUS04 KWBC 132059
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
457 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 14/0000 UTC THRU JUN 17/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...ERN STATES...

THE LATEST MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY THE H5 TROF THRU THE EASTERN STATES THIS
PERIOD..WHILE ALSO ALLOWING THE TROF TO BE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE.
ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT S/WVS WITHIN THIS TROF NOW VICINITY OF
WV SHOULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION THRU VA..NORTHEASTERN
TN AND PORTIONS OF NC THRU THE EVENING HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
UNDISTURBED/UNSTABLE/VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THIS S/WV WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE..SO ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
BRIEF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES..KEPT AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ON THE MODERATE SIDE AT BEST..MAINLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN VA INTO
EASTERN NC.  FARTHER NORTH..A STILL PRETTY IMPRESSIVE COMMA-HEAD
TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTWARD MOVING H5 S/WV OR MCV SHOULD IMPACT
EASTERN PARTS OF NY STATE INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY
EARLY THIS PERIOD..PRODUCING A BAND OF 0.50+ INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS..AS PER FAIRLY AGREEABLE MODEL QPF GUIDANCE.  AND
FINALLY..VERY MODEST HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE DIGGING H5 TROF THRU
THE SOUTHEASTERN AND GULF COAST STATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE
AIRMASS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND RATHER MOIST.
HERE..EXPECT MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.


...NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE PROGRESSIVE PAC NW/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN H5 TROF SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MT
INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS..WITH ACTIVITY AIDED BY A VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW REGIME AND PRETTY DECENT MOISTURE
BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION ON SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
MODEL QPFS PRETTY SIMILAR WITH AN AXIS OF 0.50-1.00+ INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS..AND STAYED CLOSE TO THAT IDEA.


...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

WEAK H5 S/WVS RIDING UP THRU SOUTHWESTERN TX ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE H5 RIDGE AND EAST SIDE OF A DEVELOPING WEAK CLOSED H5 LOW WILL
COMBINE WITH A CONTINUED INFLUX OF VERY HIGH MOISTURE BRING
BROUGHT IN ON PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO PRODUCE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH SOME MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVIER
RAINS PORTIONS OF THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY UP INTO SOUTHWESTERN
TX.  GFS QPF LOOKED A LITTLE UNDERDONE..SO LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY
HEAVIER QPFS ARE PER THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE.


...MIDWEST...

BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP THRU THE
CENTRAL STATES ALONG WITH VERY WEAK H5 S/WV ENERGY RIDING THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE LIKELY TO TRIGGER SOME INCREASING RAINS/CONVECTION
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST..WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED AS PER MUCH OF THE MODEL QPFS.

DAYS 2/3...

***CLOSED LOW OVER DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN CANADA***

A STRONG OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO
MANITOBA, ALONG WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW, IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE A
COMMA-HEAD TYPE PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  ON SATURDAY, A PLUME OF 1 INCH PWS IS PROGGED
TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE LOW, AND SLIGHTLY LESSER VALUES ON
SUNDAY.  MOST OF THE STEADY RAINFALL WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.


***SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE PLUME OVER CENTRAL U.S.***

A BROAD MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN OPEN WAVE SYSTEM
WHICH COMBINES WITH OTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD FROM
THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO LOCALLY
OVER 1 INCH OVER WESTERN TEXAS ON SATURDAY BEFORE MERGING INTO A
MORE COMPLEX AREA OF RAINFALL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MIDWEST
STATES, AND OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY, WHERE 0.5 TO 1.5 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.  SOME OF THIS MAY BE THE RESULT OF MCS
ACTIVITY OVER THIS REGION.  A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE
GULF WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THESE SYSTEMS WHILE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  CONCERNING MODEL PREFERENCES, A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF, UKMET, AND BIAS CORRECTED QPF MODEL WAS INCORPORATED.


***CONVECTION OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA***

A RIBBON OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH PW VALUES IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE WEEKEND.  A WEAK TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WITH SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY.  ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
TROPOSPHERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY, ANY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COULD EASILY GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  HIGHLY LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF A HALF
INCH ARE POSSIBLE, WHILE OTHER AREAS MAY REMAIN COMPLETELY
RAIN-FREE.

TERRY/HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 15/00Z
 0.01 558093 559074 560057 558046 556038 554034 544018 539010
      533003 529000 527997 521990 508982 497975 486968 480963
      474959 463948 452936 446930 441922 436918 430914 427913
      422913 416919 413925 411933 409937 406938 398940 392941
      391944 387946 387950 391957 395962 400967 405976 409982
      411989 410995 402007 399004 398006 390009 384012 381018
      374032 369036 365038 360038 352038 346034 337023 332018
      326013 316002 310998 304995 295988 284986 280985 278980
      275973 271970 262970 255973 252975 250973 247974 244977
      242978 241983 241986 243990 245992 255000 263029 265032
      266037 266047 269054 269056 273058 277062 281063 283066
      296072 301072 304075 308079 314083 318088 325089 328089
      332092 339093 344096 349090 351088 355086 359082 365078
      367075 369074 372075 375079 378079 381076 382071 385068
      401046 400041 399039 400037 405036 412039 417039 420041
      423045 423051 424064 427068 437070 448080 448086 447090
      441090 438092 439101 437109 438112 440117 442120 442127
      435142 434152 434157 436160 439165 442168 445171 444178
      444183 446187 452188 460184 462182 464176 467173 471171
      477169 481170 483174 488179 491185 492189 491191 489194
      487197 485204 482209 480210 478213 478217 483224 491230
      494235 496236 507249 509238 510235 512232 513228 513224
      515221 518219 525213 529205 531198 532195 534188 534181
      535173 534168 535160 539150 542141 545138 545133 554110
      556098 558093
 0.01 489672 487665 484661 481661 478665 472678 463693 459701
      453706 444721 442722 441720 441716 441709 441702 441696
      444683 446674 445666 444658 445650 447642 447635 446630
      444625 441620 438620 427622 416629 366676 332712 310736
      298752 281771 276775 273779 270783 268788 266798 262800
      260802 259805 260808 265812 269814 279820 283823 287827
      289830 290834 291842 289875 288895 289913 293930 303941
      312940 314930 312918 310911 310901 317899 325903 331898
      333889 335867 334853 335850 337835 338828 340823 345810
      351799 360787 376770 386762 392757 399755 405760 408762
      413763 415767 415775 413782 409787 406791 402793 395797
      389801 387805 385807 389809 394807 402803 405802 408804
      412805 415805 419806 422805 423801 426799 428793 432787
      438772 441766 448762 453762 455758 459754 461748 463740
      466731 468729 469724 472721 473716 476713 481701 485685
      488677 489672
 0.01 449027 449019 448011 445008 443008 437009 431010 428010
      425013 422014 420014 418018 421021 424025 426027 429027
      435028 438031 444031 447030 449027
 0.25 547062 547054 546048 543038 538029 534022 527015 522011
      517009 512009 506012 500018 496022 493026 489032 487035
      485041 475055 464064 458070 456080 455087 453093 452095
      451101 453105 454111 452123 450133 448142 446149 446154
      450156 453154 459148 462140 463130 464115 467111 472107
      477099 480096 483094 490094 497096 502097 506097 514096
      527087 535082 540076 546067 547062
 0.25 525173 526169 525166 524164 523161 520161 519162 518167
      519172 520177 521180 522178 524175 525173
 0.25 434670 431665 428662 421662 417666 412671 405678 400683
      390696 381709 373722 367735 360747 352759 347766 346771
      347777 350781 354781 362776 372766 384748 400736 408733
      414734 419738 424741 429738 430735 432728 433720 435710
      435701 434693 434680 434670
 0.25 441958 443951 442946 438939 433934 426933 421935 419941
      420947 417953 413960 413965 416968 419969 425970 432968
      439963 441958
 0.25 407023 405021 403020 400021 397023 397024 400025 403025
      406024 407023
 0.25 306830 313808 315802 317794 318786 324764 337740 348725
      351714 346712 333720 319736 312754 308773 302783 297797
      296804 296813 298829 299838 302840 306830
 0.25 330035 328026 324019 314009 306005 299002 287996 280994
      275993 271993 266995 265998 264005 267011 271017 276022
      282026 289030 296032 301032 306030 312034 320037 327039
      330035
 0.50 539058 539049 537042 534033 526027 523026 522027 520032
      509034 502037 495043 488050 476060 469067 464072 460076
      459080 460083 462089 465090 467086 470084 479083 497080
      502079 506077 511072 517069 520068 526069 531068 534066
      537062 539058
 0.50 429683 427677 425676 416680 413684 410688 407695 406703
      406707 407712 412717 416720 417723 422732 425732 427729
      428719 429712 429704 429695 429686 429683
 0.50 430961 428957 426957 424957 421958 423962 424962 427962
      430961 430961
 0.50 380742 378740 373741 370744 366749 364752 360757 358760
      355764 352769 356772 361769 363767 368762 370760 375755
      377752 380746 380742
 0.50 293002 281001 275001 272005 272010 278017 287022 295024
      303023 314026 321029 320021 316015 309011 299007 293002
 1.00 292010 287007 282007 280007 280011 282013 285015 291018
      294016 292010

24HR QP VT 16/00Z
 0.01 558031 554970 550944 549940 549934 548929 547921 539903
      537900 535895 531890 527888 521885 510875 499865 492859
      488858 484855 474847 471844 468840 463832 458829 455829
      451832 448838 447848 448855 451866 449872 446869 445866
      442863 431854 423849 415848 409844 405839 399833 394828
      390824 386824 382825 379831 379834 380839 383848 386854
      390863 390869 388876 386894 391912 389920 384925 379930
      376933 371935 356938 348939 343938 328940 326941 323942
      321946 321949 323957 326962 333963 345966 351970 352974
      350976 347979 343980 334982 307988 292991 285992 280996
      274999 269001 268004 267008 267013 269021 273026 282027
      288029 295029 310028 318027 323026 329022 334018 337014
      339010 342008 358004 366999 375996 378994 382993 387992
      390993 397996 397002 395005 393009 392012 394017 397020
      400019 403016 408011 410007 411003 413999 416999 418996
      421996 426994 429997 431011 432015 431020 423025 418030
      412036 408042 405049 406053 407056 411061 414062 418062
      423059 435050 445044 450037 452032 453028 453020 452014
      450007 449000 447989 446985 446978 457968 461965 465966
      467969 476978 485989 489995 492001 494008 494014 495030
      495049 493061 493069 494073 498081 502087 508092 523093
      532096 535097 542095 547089 551082 552076 554073 556061
      557047 558031
 0.01 536191 538182 538175 535166 531157 527150 521144 515140
      506140 498138 491134 484131 478131 475132 474138 477142
      480145 485149 493163 496173 500182 505188 511191 514195
      517197 525199 528199 532196 536191
 0.01 309811 301806 291803 286801 281800 272799 267802 265806
      261811 257814 256817 257820 261824 270827 280829 283830
      289829 291825 295825 297824 300821 308819 309811
 0.01 304894 300888 294886 290888 288891 288895 289904 289910
      291920 293926 296935 299935 302933 302927 302917 300908
      300904 301901 304894 304894
 0.01 258803 255799 250801 246804 245808 243812 242815 243821
      246825 251822 251818 251815 253810 255807 258803
 0.25 552037 552021 551007 551997 549988 547976 545965 540946
      536936 530928 520920 514917 508916 502921 500926 501931
      499935 495932 488928 476922 469922 466914 465910 462908
      458905 451902 443900 439897 433893 417876 410870 407868
      404866 399872 397880 395887 394892 395897 396905 399913
      401921 401931 402943 404953 406959 410965 422970 428973
      432969 439955 442950 448946 454942 456936 460933 465936
      469943 479956 494978 499986 503995 505000 506007 504018
      503029 502039 502045 504054 506064 511074 517079 522083
      529085 535082 542078 545073 549062 550052 552037
 0.25 358988 359984 357982 354982 351983 348984 346986 345986
      343989 343990 343992 346993 349992 352992 355991 357989
      358988
 0.25 338997 339993 336991 332990 318992 307994 293998 289001
      286005 283009 281013 281016 283018 287019 301020 314017
      325013 333007 338997
 0.25 286820 284819 284818 281817 279817 278816 275816 273816
      272815 268814 268818 270818 272819 273819 276820 277821
      279822 282822 285821 286820
 0.50 546042 545025 546012 543996 541988 538984 535967 531955
      528949 525949 523951 521956 520963 522970 524979 523983
      520980 516978 513978 513981 513989 511993 514999 515009
      515017 513022 508035 507040 508049 509056 512062 517071
      521074 527077 533076 538073 541068 543062 545056 546047
      546042
 0.50 502972 503967 501965 498961 494958 491954 487949 484945
      481942 479946 480950 482954 486958 489963 492967 496971
      499973 502972
 0.50 454918 453914 450911 444908 433900 423890 418887 412886
      405884 401886 399890 399895 401905 404913 407919 409925
      410931 410936 411941 413945 417947 422950 425951 429950
      434946 440940 445936 450929 454922 454918
 0.50 332001 331996 329994 321995 313996 307998 299000 296002
      294004 294012 298016 302016 306015 314013 320011 325008
      330004 332001
 1.00 535063 537058 535055 532054 530053 529052 526049 525048
      523046 520044 520043 517043 516044 514049 515054 517058
      518058 520062 522063 523064 526066 529066 532065 535063
      535063
 1.00 447924 442917 435911 428905 421898 417896 411894 408896
      407900 407903 408908 411914 416924 417929 419931 418935
      421936 422934 426930 438929 444927 447924
 1.00 325002 324002 322000 319000 316001 313001 310002 308003
      307004 308007 309007 311007 314006 316006 319006 322004
      324002 325002
 1.50 428921 427917 425914 423911 423910 420908 419907 416905
      414909 416912 417916 418917 420919 422922 423922 425923
      428921

24HR QP VT 17/00Z
 0.01 482683 472670 469669 465670 462670 459673 453681 451684
      450689 447700 445710 440719 434725 431729 427732 419734
      410738 405744 401748 400752 399762 398770 397777 393783
      389791 383800 384811 381817 380821 379828 381837 381843
      379847 376854 374865 365875 354887 341893 337896 333896
      326897 321898 316896 309892 305888 305880 307871 307863
      304853 298847 294849 292852 295863 297873 296879 296884
      293887 288889 287895 287901 289904 293909 296918 300921
      303922 305918 308916 311918 323922 330928 332932 333938
      334942 332947 330950 330954 328958 328961 329971 332978
      337980 345980 346983 343986 332996 330001 329004 330011
      333015 334018 336023 342027 349030 356033 354041 358046
      370054 372058 376059 384059 392059 398059 401061 404062
      407061 413057 415053 414049 417048 421051 426050 430049
      433047 435050 440050 445050 450048 452042 454039 454033
      453019 448013 442011 437003 433999 427995 422989 432985
      437976 439967 441955 440944 440938 440932 444925 446921
      452920 466923 468920 470920 472922 473938 475952 477964
      478966 480972 482985 484989 484998 483008 484025 485038
      489048 494056 499063 504071 511091 522106 527112 530114
      534112 538107 541096 542087 542082 540080 537070 534065
      533057 530043 529027 528014 524003 521996 522988 523933
      521918 520905 517892 513882 510864 505849 503840 501832
      500823 495797 494789 494783 491770 488756 485750 484745
      485739 487729 488719 486712 486705 483692 482683
 0.01 529174 530169 529164 525159 521153 515148 511144 504141
      499139 495141 487141 483144 475144 471147 468148 467151
      468158 472163 478166 485169 489172 496176 500180 508182
      515184 521183 526178 529174
 0.01 287813 285808 282806 275802 267799 259799 256797 251797
      245804 246808 248810 251812 253814 253817 260824 266828
      273830 279829 282825 282821 285820 286817 287813
 0.25 512922 510909 508898 502874 500861 497853 490849 486851
      485854 484863 485876 488889 492894 494897 496904 497911
      496918 497931 498941 498954 500959 502962 505964 507961
      509951 511942 512934 512927 512922
 0.25 437793 437787 437783 435779 432776 426774 423768 423762
      422756 418754 414760 413765 407777 406784 405792 406800
      410804 412809 413815 414825 411828 405832 397835 394841
      390853 383865 379876 377883 375891 374896 370901 364904
      360905 351904 349907 347911 347918 349925 352931 355937
      357946 357954 360962 361968 363973 364984 363005 365009
      369014 375016 378014 379010 380002 378993 379989 379985
      377981 376978 379973 383967 386961 392950 395944 398937
      405928 414918 418916 424910 434902 437897 439894 440889
      441881 441874 439865 437858 438849 436840 435833 435828
      437816 437803 437793
 0.25 431028 431022 430017 425009 422005 416000 410996 404994
      400995 399001 405007 408011 413018 415026 417030 420032
      425033 429031 431028
 0.25 386043 385039 383039 380038 380042 383045 386043
 0.50 432808 431796 426789 422789 421784 420777 417775 414779
      412785 412793 417799 419806 421814 424820 427822 431818
      432810 432808
 0.50 434849 432845 430843 427842 422842 408846 400850 395855
      388867 386875 383884 382899 381907 377914 372919 367924
      364926 364929 364934 366940 368951 371957 376958 379956
      386943 388936 387925 386921 386917 388913 398902 405891
      409885 414879 419872 422873 424881 427893 432896 437890
      433861 434849
 1.00 409863 409859 407858 404856 400859 397864 395868 394873
      392877 391881 390888 390890 393891 395888 396883 399879
      402876 406872 408867 409863
 1.00 381940 382936 380934 377935 376938 377941 378943 381941
      381940

$$