Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 220648
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 22/1200 UTC THRU AUG 23/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

EASTERN MAINE

THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY.   THE ORGANIZED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY EASTERN MAINE EARLY IN
THE DAY 1 PERIOD BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  AREAL AVERAGE .25-.50"+ AMOUNTS DEPICTED ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE.

SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY

THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DAY 1---WITH THE
CORRESPONDING AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY ALSO PRESSING NORTHEASTWARD. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
INCREASE THIS PERIOD IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS--ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO
DETAILS.  THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A MAX PRECIP
AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARLATEX WHERE LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO
THE BOUNDARY MAY MAXIMIZE.  ANOTHER MAX AXIS MAY EXTEND FARTHER TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS INTO SOUTHWEST TX IN A REGION OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE TO THE EAST OF THE  SOUTHWEST UPPER TROF.  MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS---WITH A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINTAINED.

SOUTHWEST---SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
ROCKIES

BROAD UPPER TROFFING WILL BE MAINTAINED DAY 1 FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA--INTO THE SOUTHWEST---SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN---SOUTHERN
TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
THESE AREAS.  AREAL AVERAGE LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS
EXPECTED---WITH ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE---ALONG WITH A
CONTINUATION OF A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S./SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS OF
CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS OF THE U.S.  THE BEST LARGE SCALE LIFT
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ACROSS SOUTHEAST B.C. INTO SOUTHWEST
ALBERTA---WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP AFFECTING THE BORDER REGIONS
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

UPPER GREAT LAKES

ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVING FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT A
STRIPE OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ONTARIO.
SIMILAR TO THE UPSTREAM AREA OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THE STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS MOVING EAST FROM THE NORTHWEST U.S./SOUTHWEST CANADA---MOST
OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S. BORDER IN
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LAKES.  THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS
PRECIP AREA---HOWEVER---MAY BRING SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL TO THE
UPPER LAKES REGION---BUT A MAJORITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP
THE HEAVIEST TOTALS TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 562085 564059 564049 562040 560029 555023 548009 540000
      533000 528002 517011 511016 506019 500021 498022 496020
      492020 490022 486025 481029 479037 486040 494041 504046
      513038 516036 519036 523036 526039 529049 530059 533078
      535096 535108 533114 531117 528118 524117 522112 523104
      522096 519090 518085 516084 511079 505078 502080 500082
      498108 499116 502124 503128 502133 497138 491134 487139
      485143 484147 484153 485159 489173 496185 499192 501201
      503211 505219 508225 512231 518234 522229 533218 536212
      539202 542194 544184 549167 551156 553145 555133 557121
      560103 561092 562085
 0.01 515680 513668 511659 503644 495631 490627 487626 482627
      468628 461630 452633 436639 429642 425645 422648 398665
      393671 392674 393679 392684 393688 396696 399705 404709
      419709 453702 460702 468700 482701 495702 503700 507699
      510695 512692 514688 515680
 0.01 517939 517922 516909 515892 514883 513877 512860 511855
      510848 505818 505810 506804 505789 505780 503770 500757
      498752 496749 493746 489744 484745 480749 477752 475757
      474762 473769 474776 474783 471795 468806 470818 468822
      468829 457847 456852 457860 456864 453864 450867 446869
      445874 447880 452880 456881 459887 463896 465903 469903
      470898 471890 475880 476875 477873 479875 479894 480901
      482905 489911 495917 500926 505937 511945 514945 515942
      517939
 0.01 225054 225063 227071 236081 240086 243092 251102 269105
      273106 276105 282106 292110 298114 309113 316110 325111
      338120 341127 341135 343143 347148 350152 353155 357156
      357161 360176 360183 362186 369191 374196 380202 386205
      392204 394202 393199 388193 378183 375177 370172 372158
      374154 377151 382145 384135 385131 388127 391124 396124
      405114 409103 396094 397088 400082 410071 412065 411061
      406059 401055 394052 388051 385053 381051 379050 378047
      377044 375045 367043 365040 366037 372032 387029 391025
      396018 408014 408007 410003 408995 405988 403984 401983
      392979 383978 376975 370970 368968 366964 366955 365932
      364923 360917 356914 350910 344910 341909 341906 340893
      339871 321847 320839 322832 324823 327816 327811 326806
      324803 320803 317805 311808 307810 303809 295807 279804
      264802 257803 251808 253814 250814 248812 245809 241808
      239807 236809 234816 238822 242826 247829 253829 258828
      265830 268828 272829 277832 282832 286833 291837 292842
      291847 290851 290856 293862 297867 299878 299888 297896
      297906 295908 295912 292911 290913 288925 285933 281947
      276956 277960 280961 286962 290964 291968 290970 290975
      290984 292993 291997 289999 283000 279002 277004 274011
      268018 268022 271024 273028 273034 271039 269040 262039
      252038 247037 244036 241033 237033 233033 232035 227039
 0.01 385006 384003 380002 371001 366001 364999 357996 351002
      347009 345015 341024 337028 332032 326036 326040 327044
      330046 334046 344046 353035 363025 366021 372017 383008
      385006
 0.25 550148 553127 554115 554102 551085 550077 547069 544065
      542065 540068 539077 539086 541103 541114 539124 535129
      530130 524131 518132 513134 510139 507146 506153 510159
      511163 509165 505171 505176 506179 519203 523208 527210
      531206 535198 540185 545169 548158 550148
 0.25 500669 500662 499656 494647 489643 482639 475639 467640
      460641 450643 445645 443647 441652 440657 436664 432672
      430675 429681 431687 434691 439695 443695 449693 457690
      467688 485684 494681 497678 499674 500669
 0.25 392075 392073 392072 391070 391069 390070 390073 390074
      391075 392077 392075
 0.25 375130 376127 375124 370122 367120 361120 356120 352121
      350123 349130 351133 356135 360134 365134 370135 374132
      375130
 0.25 376073 376071 374073 376074 376073
 0.25 359965 360960 359956 356947 352941 345945 340939 335934
      329930 326928 323928 318932 317941 318949 318954 317958
      317979 317983 320985 324984 326981 331976 336971 339969
      342968 345971 350971 354971 357969 359965
 0.25 336060 337056 334054 329052 322050 318051 309057 298052
      291052 286053 280054 272053 260051 247047 242046 237046
      232050 231057 232063 234068 241077 249084 253087 260090
      265092 270093 277095 285095 303085 305079 309074 318067
      326063 332062 336060
 0.25 329003 330999 328998 325999 323001 321003 319005 317007
      315009 313010 313013 315013 318015 322014 324012 325010
      327008 328005 329003
 0.25 311877 311871 310865 308862 307867 307873 307878 306884
      306890 307897 310892 311886 310879 311877
 0.25 309013 310011 307010 305006 303005 300005 296007 293010
      291013 287016 287020 289022 291024 294024 298023 301020
      305017 307015 309013
 0.50 546158 547145 548131 549125 549118 548115 546114 540132
      535136 528137 521136 515140 511146 511150 513155 515163
      515169 514176 515181 516185 522190 527195 530194 533191
      540176 546158
 0.50 492661 491653 486648 481644 476643 470643 462645 457649
      453654 449660 446666 442672 440680 440688 442690 446690
      459684 474679 481677 489673 492668 492661
 0.50 332956 333954 333952 333949 333947 332946 332945 330943
      328942 327943 326943 326945 326947 327948 327949 327952
      327954 327956 328958 328959 330958 331958 332957 332956
 0.50 287085 286079 285072 284066 282063 279062 272061 266058
      256053 245049 240050 237055 236059 236063 238067 246076
      250080 255083 266087 271089 277090 287085
 1.00 541159 542153 543146 542143 538142 531143 524144 519146
      517149 517155 520162 524168 527172 530174 536172 539164
      541159
 1.00 482659 482654 479653 477653 474652 471653 470653 467654
      464657 464660 467661 468664 471665 472666 476666 479665
      482662 482659
 1.00 274081 276077 274071 269066 264064 260062 255062 249058
      246057 242059 242062 243066 247070 252075 259079 266082
      272083 274081
 1.50 536158 536154 535151 532150 529149 526150 524152 522153
      521157 522160 523163 526165 527167 529167 532166 534164
      535161 536158
 1.50 270075 269072 266070 264069 261068 258067 255067 251067
      252071 254072 256074 259075 263076 265076 268077 270075

$$





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