Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 251901
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 26/0000 UTC THRU JUL 27/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE EAST/NORTHEAST U.S...

MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY STRUGGLED TO PIN DOWN THE CONVECTION THAT
HAS FORMED AT THE LATITUDE OF IOWA AND SURVIVED A SOUTHWARD
TREK...MOVING AWAY FROM BETTER MID LEVEL SUPPORT...BUT FEEDING OFF
WARM ADVECTION AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GREAT PLAINS THERMAL
DOME. IN THE SHORT TERM WE WERE ABLE TO DISPLACE RECENT HRRR RUNS
TOWARD THE OBSERVED LOCATION OF AN MCS AFFECTING MO/IL. THIS
SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS IT NEARS 850 MB RIDGING AND
LIGHTER WINDS...ALTHOUGH SOME REDEVELOPMENT ON THE OUTFLOW FARTHER
NORTH IS POSSIBLE.

QPF SIGNALS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAVE BEEN DISJOINTED AND
SOMEWHAT STINGY WITH AMOUNTS GIVEN THAT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE RETURNING EASTWARD...ALBEIT IN AN ELEVATED FASHION. HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA HAVE TAPERED
OFF AS THE SYSTEM FLATTENED FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS SOME
SIGNAL FOR SWATHS OF PRECIPITATION TO FORM THIS EVENING/TONIGHT IN
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND IN IL/IN WHERE 700MB AND 850MB FORCINGS
INCREASE...RESPECTIVELY. THE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH SHOULD PROGRESS
ON SATURDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION IN IL/IN MAY BE SLOWER TO PROGRESS
IF SUFFICIENT CONVECTION AGAIN FORMS AND INTERCEPTS THE RETURNING
MOISTURE. SUCH ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF LOCAL
FLASH FLOODING...BUT WE HELD OFF ON ANY RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
UNTIL DAY 2...WHEN DEEP LAYER ASCENT INCREASES AND GREATER
ORGANZIATION IS LIKELY.

BACK TO THE WEST A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND JET STREAK WILL
ENTER SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...SPURRING DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
CONVECTIVE EVENT APPROACHING THE SIOUX FALLS AREA ON SATURDAY.
THROUGHOUT THIS REGION WPC QPF FOLLOWED THE REASONABLE AGREEMENT
AMONG THE 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET AND 12Z NAM CONEST.


...WESTERN U.S...

WPC QPF USED THE 00Z NSSL WRF FOR THE DETAILS HERE...AS IT WAS
MORE GENEROUS WITH AREAL COVERAGE IN NW AZ AND WESTERN CO. SEE THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION.


...GULF COAST...SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST AND FLORIDA...

WITH A FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH...THE WARM SECTOR NARROWS FURTHER
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. FOCUSED CONVECTION IN SC MAY
BACKBUILD TOWARD SE GA THIS EVENING. FLORIDA REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOCAL RAINFALL MAXIMA PREDICTED SOUTH OF
THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN FAR SOUTH FL...AND NORTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS BETWEEN TAMPA AND JACKSONVILLE...WITH EASTWARD PROPAGATION
OWING TO THE MEAN LAYER FLOW. WPC QPF USED THE 00Z SSEO MEAN AS A
GENERAL OUTLINE...AND THE 12Z WRF ARW TO FILL IN THE DETAILS.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 27/00Z
 0.01 536212 536205 535200 532196 529193 526193 522194 522202
      523207 524211 527216 531217 534214 536212
 0.01 517695 516688 514680 512670 510663 506651 502645 498641
      494638 490637 487639 484643 482650 482657 482665 478670
      470676 466682 462683 459681 455680 454684 455689 454693
      455700 462704 466710 467719 469726 472728 479727 483730
      486735 490738 492739 495739 500735 504732 507727 513717
      515712 516706 517695
 0.01 512921 511909 509899 504879 499859 493843 489835 485826
      480817 476808 471790 466771 456760 439760 437753 434749
      431747 429745 430743 432740 435734 436730 435724 429721
      421723 414727 404738 390748 379760 374767 371772 370775
      373776 381776 388773 394774 397779 396784 396790 394795
      387799 385801 382805 382807 385809 393812 396814 397817
      398820 397823 395826 391833 387839 383858 380876 379880
      377877 373875 370880 370885 370891 369898 370905 373914
      377921 379924 383926 389929 396927 401935 403943 408948
      408955 406959 405965 403968 397963 384967 381968 378972
      375981 374989 378997 378001 378005 374012 372017 371022
      376030 374035 374041 368044 364047 361049 357055 360061
      359064 360067 366066 369068 370072 373080 376088 378098
      382092 384090 388088 393083 398084 401081 406075 408064
      410060 410055 409049 408044 410035 412031 412026 407023
      401018 401012 400008 399005 401002 403999 405996 412992
      414989 413984 416983 419983 420985 420992 422996 426002
      432007 437015 439019 441021 444022 446018 448010 448000
      446990 445978 443971 441961 438954 433948 431938 430932
      429928 427918 427910 428906 429900 432896 444886 451883
      459883 463886 464890 466898 472913 476922 480932 482937
      482945 482950 481957 481967 480974 482978 483000 486022
      487029 487035 489043 491055 496059 500060 502058 503050
      507023 510004 511990 510976 509962 508949 507939 506931
      508927 510926 512921
 0.01 409108 409105 410103 410101 410098 408096 408095 408096
      406098 406100 406102 406103 407105 407107 407108 409108
      409108
 0.01 389146 388142 387138 386136 387132 392118 389114 386111
      380112 375117 373119 371120 369117 362116 355112 348104
      347107 345105 344102 345093 343082 342078 338078 333077
      330083 331086 331092 330097 327098 322097 319094 313090
      303080 296076 287075 276069 269065 266060 259054 252051
      245049 236048 232048 229051 227053 227057 229065 232067
      236069 241073 246078 250083 255088 261091 267095 273101
      278105 287107 295107 296116 300122 305127 310130 315132
      319130 323124 323120 321117 322114 324111 328107 332106
      335106 340109 344111 345114 341121 341126 344129 348134
      350137 351141 346145 342146 340150 332160 329164 330167
      334168 338168 342164 348161 352155 359153 364158 366156
      367153 364150 365144 366138 369135 369131 373130 377137
      377142 381144 387146 389146
 0.01 362092 362090 362089 360089 359089 358091 358093 360094
      362094 362092
 0.01 355748 354741 353736 348729 345726 342725 336730 322763
      315778 311786 307791 299796 296798 292799 288801 282801
      272799 268799 266797 267793 265789 261786 258785 252787
      240799 238803 239808 240819 241831 243834 247833 251830
      252827 254820 272834 280837 284838 289838 293839 297839
      296847 293856 294863 292867 288875 285883 279899 276906
      275910 275915 276927 278938 281947 285952 292948 295947
      295952 293957 290960 288956 288958 283967 283971 287971
      290970 294967 299962 307945 308937 309926 308914 307905
      305900 305896 307895 309890 309886 311881 311876 310866
      310856 312848 313843 317843 323842 325840 328833 331829
      335827 341794 344790 343786 343781 345779 347779 349775
      350770 351760 355748
 0.01 318153 317152 317151 316149 315148 314147 313146 313145
      311145 309144 309145 307146 305146 304148 305149 306151
      306152 308153 308154 310154 312155 313155 315155 317153
      318153
 0.01 301829 300826 298824 296822 294821 290821 287822 283822
      279823 278824 280824 283824 287823 291824 292825 294827
      296828 298830 301829
 0.01 297943 296941 296940 295941 294943 296945 297943
 0.01 285018 286010 282005 280007 276011 272015 271023 274028
      277034 277038 278040 280043 281034 281030 283028 284020
      285018
 0.01 256012 255006 255998 251994 246993 240995 236997 235001
      236004 240004 243008 249011 254014 256012
 0.25 506688 506680 504675 500677 498681 497687 497693 496699
      495704 496712 499716 502710 503706 504701 505696 506689
      506688
 0.25 497904 498892 496884 493875 490868 478842 473836 471835
      468835 466836 464834 463824 460816 456811 453810 449810
      442810 436809 430809 424812 419816 415822 413829 414832
      416833 424833 432832 437834 442839 447843 455847 460851
      463859 469872 470881 473887 478892 481899 487912 490919
      494918 495908 497904
 0.25 443005 443997 442990 440978 438971 436964 431955 424947
      421947 418952 415963 414967 416970 421972 424975 427980
      428986 430992 436002 438005 443005
 0.25 442868 437867 434864 428855 425850 422848 417846 411846
      408841 404843 395850 393854 392860 392872 390885 388890
      385895 379894 376897 377904 380908 383911 386912 388911
      391908 396904 401905 404910 406915 410917 414915 416910
      417904 417896 430879 442868
 0.25 397758 396756 394755 393756 391757 390760 389762 390763
      392763 393763 395761 396761 397760 397758
 0.25 396069 397067 396065 394065 393066 393068 394069 396069
      396069
 0.25 390027 390022 388018 386013 386006 387002 387996 385996
      384999 382004 381008 381015 381020 382026 386028 390027
 0.25 359127 358125 357122 356120 354122 354124 354126 355127
      357129 359128 359127
 0.25 347749 347743 346738 342739 341744 333758 330764 326773
      318786 313803 311810 310814 310820 317822 321821 325819
      329813 331803 335787 337777 340769 342761 346754 347749
 0.25 347763 346761 345762 344763 344765 345767 346765 347764
      347763
 0.25 316118 314116 311115 309115 307113 305110 303108 301108
      300112 301116 303118 305119 308120 312122 315120 316118
 0.25 290096 288088 283082 272074 266070 263064 259059 255057
      250057 245057 238053 235053 233055 234059 237061 248068
      259076 264082 268087 276098 280100 284100 290096
 0.25 285810 282806 278807 271807 265806 259805 256805 255808
      257813 262815 270815 274818 278819 281818 282815 285810
 0.50 491889 491886 490884 490882 489881 488879 486881 487884
      487886 488887 490889 491889 491889
 0.50 491904 491901 491899 490897 489899 489901 490904 490905
      491904
 0.50 482874 481869 481867 480862 479858 477855 477852 475849
      472850 472855 473860 473865 474869 474872 476876 479877
      482874
 0.50 453835 452829 449826 446824 442821 439818 437819 436821
      438825 441830 443833 446836 450838 453835
 0.50 436995 437990 436986 436978 435973 433971 432964 429959
      426954 423952 420954 420959 421962 423964 424967 428973
      430978 431987 433993 436995
 0.50 421877 419876 419877 421877 421877
 0.50 419867 420862 417858 414857 412854 406850 401851 398854
      397857 399862 395869 396875 398877 401879 405878 411875
      415874 417871 419867
 0.50 332785 331781 329781 325784 321789 319795 316800 314805
      314809 315813 319815 324812 326807 324801 324797 326794
      329790 332785
 0.50 282095 283093 283091 282089 282088 280086 279084 278084
      277083 275083 273083 273084 274085 274087 274090 274092
      275094 276095 278096 280096 282095 282095
 0.50 267810 265809 265808 263808 262807 260808 258809 259811
      260812 262812 264811 266811 267810
 0.50 259067 258065 258063 257061 255060 253060 252061 251061
      251063 251065 253066 254067 255067 256068 258068 259067

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.