Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 180755
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 18/1200 UTC THRU SEP 19/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...DAY 1...


...PAC NW INTO NRN CA...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES...

AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSCD WARM CONVEYOR BELT/NARROW COLD
CONVEYOR BELT STRUCTURE PER LATEST STLT IR/WV LOOPS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO NRN
CA...WITH THE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT LEADING TO HIGHER TOTALS
(AVERAGING .25-.50 INCH) ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.

ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...THE
ANOMALOUS PW AVAILABILITY (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORM)
ALONG WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES (7-8 C/KM BTWN 700-500 MB)
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE PERIOD
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND. HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS
(.25 TO .50 INCH) ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NERN NV/NRN UT
INTO WRN WY...WHERE THE MODELS SHOW SOME ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT VIA THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NRN STREAM JET STREAK.


...SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS...AND ALONG THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST...

WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO IN SOME AREAS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE REMNANT LOW FROM ODILE DISSIPATES
WHILE IN ITS WAKE A FAIRLY ELONGATED AXIS OF ABOVE NORMAL PW
VALUES WILL PERSIST DURING THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN AZ
AND POINTS WEST WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE DURING THIS TIME AS MUCH
LOWER PWS (TIGHT BACK EDGE OF PW AXIS) SHIFTS EAST FROM CA/NV
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WPC MAINTAINED GOOD
CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FCSTS WITH THE QPF...INCORPORATING SOME
OF THE BETTER PERFORMING HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (NAM CONEST
AND WRF-ARW)...WHILE CONTINUING TO LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE
HIGH-RES ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH ALSO MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM
ITS PREVIOUS RUN.

A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER AN AREA FROM
SOUTHEAST AZ AND MUCH OF SRN NM...THOUGH ANTICIPATE AN EASTWARD
SHIFT IN THE BACK EDGE (EAST OF AZ) BY 12Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE COME DOWN A BIT EARLY THIS AM...HOWEVER AT THE
SAME TIME THE 1/3/6 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOWER
OVER THIS REGION WITH THE CONTINUED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. WHILE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF LONG DURATION FLOODING REMAINS A
CONCERN...THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PW AVAILABILITY (3-3.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL/HIGH
AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS (1-3.5 INCHES) WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THE
FFG AND ELEVATE THE FLASH FLOODING RISK. THIS DESPITE THE LIMITED
INSTBY AND MODEST RAINFALL RATES (1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES WITHIN 3
HOURS) DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE`S REMNANT CIRCULATION.

FARTHER EAST INTO TX...A SECONDARY AXIS OF HIGHER PWS (AOA 2.25
INCHES) POOLING ACROSS THE WRN GULF INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN TX
WILL COMBINE WITH GREATER INSTBY (MUCAPES 500-2000 J/KG) TO
PRODUCE GREATER RAINFALL RATES...TO THE TUNE OF 2.5-3 INCHES/HOUR
AND/OR AS MUCH AS 3-5 INCHES WITHIN 3 HOURS WITHIN ISOLATED
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.


...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACCOMPANIED BY BACK-BUILDING AND TRAINING
CHARACTERISTICS IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH PORTIONS OF
THE AREA MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING DUE TO RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD AND TOTAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS
NOT IN AN AREA SYNOPTICALLY FAVORED FOR SUCH ACTIVITY (DOWNSTREAM
OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH)...HOWEVER
A SUBTLE BUT NOTICEABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSCD VORT
LOBE RIDING SE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP DECENT
DEEP-LAYER INSTBY (MUCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG). AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS
WILL BE ON ORDER OF .25 TO .75 INCH OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER PER THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED.

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 19/12Z
 0.01 537213 539202 538193 538186 535180 530167 528161 524154
      503150 502154 504156 506159 507162 497167 494173 492181
      490187 491194 493202 489205 483206 478209 459217 457219
      458222 464224 474220 480220 485223 490226 492231 494239
      498244 499247 499250 496250 495246 492241 488239 484237
      481232 477227 474226 472227 467232 467240 469246 476249
      475256 473264 470273 470278 471281 474284 479282 484279
      486278 490279 493280 495283 498287 502291 508291 512286
      515278 517270 518259 515247 515242 514239 511230 507226
      505218 503212 503207 505203 507202 509204 512207 522217
      525219 526223 531224 537213
 0.01 542941 543931 543922 540908 538895 535883 533877 531871
      525862 523859 520859 515858 505864 497868 489876 486884
      482896 475920 470932 467947 458000 457009 458018 461022
      462026 461030 461048 461053 459057 456059 451062 448066
      447070 445071 442071 440069 436074 440074 444079 444084
      445085 449086 450090 436089 431089 425087 420095 416096
      411096 407100 404104 401108 399110 396110 390114 392114
      393119 391125 391131 388135 384139 380144 378157 378164
      379170 383175 382177 384182 388181 391180 397181 403179
      406176 410172 415170 435165 439163 445165 454162 457159
      459154 461150 466148 470140 475126 466125 471118 473108
      475104 472103 471100 470095 464092 462089 459090 456088
      455085 459082 464072 464066 466063 468058 471054 473049
      476014 480005 484995 486988 489980 494978 497980 499983
      500986 500990 500998 505006 513013 517025 518030 520030
      522024 522015 523998 524988 527982 529974 531966 536957
      540949 542941
 0.01 490667 489658 484653 480654 473656 468660 465665 459668
      452670 449672 455675 458679 464678 467678 468681 468689
      467702 471700 476695 479690 482685 486679 489673 490667
 0.01 457236 453225 450220 444217 440217 437218 433220 426222
      423222 421226 419227 416224 415217 409213 402210 395207
      391203 386199 384198 382199 381204 382207 386212 396222
      394225 391226 385225 368221 362222 361225 375232 381234
      385235 387238 396248 406256 412260 420263 427264 432263
      442254 457236
 0.01 446732 436734 431735 429740 427745 426751 423763 424771
      423777 425791 428789 430783 432771 432764 432756 434751
      436746 444738 446732
 0.01 420008 417998 411992 405984 402981 400977 398957 396952
      397949 401939 398931 393927 389926 384929 379927 375925
      372919 370908 368899 363889 358881 354872 352868 347868
      342869 340873 337883 328895 325897 324890 321881 319876
      315872 311870 307869 306872 307876 309883 309889 306900
      303902 302900 298896 297882 296870 294866 294858 293845
      294841 292837 287830 284821 280816 284808 292809 290811
      288812 286815 293820 303819 315818 319828 322831 325833
      328847 330854 333857 337856 339851 343842 348835 353833
      356829 359822 364817 369809 373802 374796 375789 376777
      385761 386757 385751 382754 379758 376762 372767 365773
      362776 361781 364783 367785 366788 365792 361796 354801
      338794 343785 346780 348774 347769 350765 354762 355757
      356747 355743 353739 349738 345740 337746 326760 320766
      312772 308777 303784 297789 290794 288792 288788 289783
      290776 290770 288762 286757 280758 275757 270758 268761
      264767 260776 257781 254783 245798 243807 240816 239825
      241834 241843 239847 239853 241866 242872 241877 238887
      238892 239897 240903 241907 245916 249924 254934 258942
      258948 257953 255958 256961 255963 252963 246963 243961
      242967 242972 244974 248976 251975 255976 255981 256985
      260987 264989 270990 273999 276006 278008 278011 275011
      273009 263004 259000 254000 249000 246004 250013 256018
      264023 270028 272031 268032 259035 254040 251047 240049
      233055 233061 236064 240068 242073 247080 254085 257086
      261085 270081 275074 277071 282068 286066 289066 292069
      294074 289081 286084 284085 276089 272095 270097 271099
      275102 276105 275106 276111 281112 285114 296118 301119
      304123 309128 312129 315132 321133 327133 331127 340130
 0.01 340130 347133 355133 356132 355129 355124 357122 354117
      353109 352104 353099 357091 357082 356074 357071 361070
      369073 373080 374082 378083 379080 380074 376067 374065
      371062 370059 370055 368047 364038 362032 361027 359025
      355023 354017 354009 351001 349995 352988 357983 361976
      365971 370965 373964 375969 378976 381982 385988 392993
      397998 399001 399006 399010 401014 409015 414015 417013
      420008
 0.01 400772 398770 394768 391771 387774 386777 383781 381784
      382789 387788 389785 392780 395778 398775 400772
 0.01 398083 399081 399078 397078 395078 394078 393078 392080
      390082 389084 389086 391087 393087 395087 396087 397085
      398083 398083
 0.01 364952 362949 359947 356949 354952 352953 350954 348956
      345958 344960 346962 350962 352960 354958 355956 359954
      361954 364952
 0.25 531208 532202 532197 530189 527180 526177 522174 514173
      507172 505175 505179 505185 507188 511194 516201 520207
      523209 527210 531208
 0.25 513269 515265 515261 513255 508245 506240 504239 503241
      505253 509264 505264 501260 496257 493253 490253 491260
      496269 499273 504276 507277 511273 513269
 0.25 531928 532919 531912 531906 529896 527892 525889 520887
      516886 512887 508890 502898 497906 494916 492922 489927
      484935 480945 480953 482957 491956 495958 498962 503970
      510975 515976 518973 520968 520962 520949 523942 526941
      530935 531928
 0.25 497224 496221 495218 494215 493214 492214 491213 489213
      487214 486215 486218 487218 488219 490220 491221 492222
      493222 494224 496225 497224
 0.25 485248 484246 484245 483244 481244 481245 481247 482248
      484249 485248
 0.25 435247 433243 428240 425238 419237 416238 413240 410244
      410250 413253 418255 423256 427255 430253 433249 435247
 0.25 439110 440108 439105 438105 437105 435107 434109 433110
      433111 433113 435113 436112 437112 438111 439110
 0.25 420142 421136 421131 419126 416123 409125 404125 403132
      400140 400143 400148 402152 402156 399166 400170 404168
      409161 413153 418144 420142
 0.25 386979 387977 387974 387972 386970 385968 384966 383965
      382964 380964 380965 379967 380970 380971 381972 382974
      382975 383977 384977 385979 385980 386979
 0.25 361056 354049 352045 352037 352031 351026 349015 347011
      345007 342004 337001 333997 332992 328980 321962 319951
      316942 308935 302926 299917 296905 284867 280854 276844
      274839 273833 271827 271820 268816 267811 268799 267794
      265788 262787 258789 252799 250803 248809 246818 245827
      250836 252840 252846 248853 249858 251862 252867 252873
      253888 255902 258913 287985 294004 300010 305015 309019
      308025 299031 292036 288038 282037 278036 274037 270040
      269044 267049 264053 263056 259059 254067 256069 260069
      264067 272061 280057 290055 300057 304060 305063 308072
      308079 306083 299088 295094 295098 296100 303108 309115
      318120 321121 323119 325116 336117 337112 338106 339098
      342092 346082 348075 348068 350063 353060 358058 361056
 0.25 360901 359897 356892 351886 347885 343886 338893 335902
      333913 333919 335922 339924 342928 345928 347923 351914
      353903 355901 358901 360901
 0.25 325808 325805 325803 324801 323799 321799 320800 319802
      318803 317804 317806 317808 317809 318811 319811 321812
      322811 324810 325808
 0.50 527199 526194 525190 522185 517183 514181 511177 510183
      512187 515190 518193 521198 523202 527200 527199
 0.50 528912 526907 524905 520902 516901 513904 512908 511916
      513920 517921 522921 525919 527915 528912
 0.50 351057 348024 346015 342010 329002 326996 324988 324981
      322973 318967 316961 314951 310945 306939 303933 297922
      287891 281877 277864 274859 269853 263851 262855 261860
      260877 260886 261894 264913 269927 279953 283969 287974
      294978 299981 300985 300990 306001 311005 316010 319017
      317026 315029 311030 306032 304031 301032 299040 300044
      301047 306052 309055 311058 312066 314083 312089 306091
      303093 302098 303104 304104 307110 309112 313113 331095
      336090 339084 341080 342075 343065 347061 351057
 0.50 348903 348901 349899 349897 349895 347893 345891 344891
      342893 340895 340896 340897 339899 339902 339904 340906
      341906 342906 343906 344906 345906 346905 348904 348903
 0.50 279045 278044 276043 276044 276045 278045 279045
 0.50 265817 264813 263811 262807 262803 261801 257801 255801
      253804 252806 252810 253812 255815 257816 259817 263818
      265817
 0.50 262831 262830 260829 259827 258826 258824 257824 256823
      255824 255826 255828 256830 258831 259832 259834 260836
      261836 261833 262833 262831
 1.00 348055 347046 345037 342031 338028 334029 328031 322036
      315037 315045 319051 320055 319058 317064 318068 320077
      319084 316092 316097 319097 324092 333082 334076 334072
      337064 348055
 1.00 312966 310958 305947 302939 297931 292922 288912 285904
      281894 276886 274882 272880 270882 268892 269906 272915
      275926 283943 287952 292961 305973 308976 310975 312966
 1.50 345050 345046 343041 341038 335038 328041 326044 324050
      322061 321067 322073 323078 322085 322089 325087 327083
      329079 332068 337060 339057 343055 345050
 1.50 307960 306953 303947 297935 293930 288925 286920 284912
      281906 277900 275900 275903 276910 277917 279922 281925
      283929 286937 288944 290949 299960 303964 306962 307960
 2.00 344050 344046 342044 337043 333045 329050 326055 324062
      323065 323070 325075 328075 329070 331066 335060 337054
      343052 344050
 2.00 303958 303956 303954 303953 302952 301951 300949 299949
      298947 297946 297945 296943 296942 295943 295945 295947
      296948 296949 297952 298954 299956 301958 302958 303958
      303958
 3.00 341050 341048 340046 338047 337047 336049 335049 336050
      338050 340050 341050
 3.00 330064 330062 328063 328064 328066 328067 328066 330065
      330064

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