Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 230655
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 23/1200 UTC THRU MAY 24/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...WESTERN U.S...

LARGE SCALE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
WEST. A CYCLONE WHICH DEVELOPED TO THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN AND
NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WILL MAKE ONLY VERY SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD...CONTINUING TO SUPPORT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WITHIN AN
ENERGETIC AND CONFLUENT 850-700 MB FLOW REGIME OVER NORTHERN ID/MT
AND ADJACENT FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON. MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD 0.50 INCH AND GREATER PRECIPITATION ON DAY 1 IN THE
SAME AREAS THAT WERE ALREADY RECEIVING MODERATE RAIN/SNOW ON
SUNDAY.

WHILE HEIGHT FALLS DO EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
TODAY...SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED IN A CORRIDOR OF CYCLONIC
FLOW ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH ONE WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
DROPPING IN AND REINFORCING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH AREAL AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES WILL PERSIST OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH OTHER...LESS PRODUCTIVE DIURNAL
CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAD
DRIED IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL CYCLONE. ONE AREA OF INTEREST
WILL BE THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS IN CALIFORNIA...AND PERHAPS SPILLING
OVER INTO NEVADA...AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE WELL
TIMED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.


...CENTRAL U.S...

MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND SYNOPTIC FORCING THAT IS GENERALLY
FAVORABLE BUT NOT STRONG...WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM TEXAS TO MINNESOTA. NAILING DOWN THE
SPECIFIC LOCATION AND TIMING OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE DIFFICULT
OWING TO THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OF STORM SCALE PROCESSES. THAT
BEING SAID...MODEL QPFS SHOWED A DECENT AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT...AND
DID NOT CAUSE US TO ALTER COURSE ON THE LARGE SCALE.
GENERALLY...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ORGANIZED AND
PERSISTENT IN THREE AREAS... ONE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ACROSS
MUCH OF MINNESOTA WITHIN STRONGER DEEP LAYER FORCING AND
SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE INFLOW... ANOTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS AND ADJACENT MO/IA ALONG THE NOSE
OF THE PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET... AND A THIRD AREA EXTENDING FROM THE
MIDLAND/LUBBOCK AREA EASTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS
THIRD AREA IS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL JET
AXIS NOSING OUT INTO THE PLAINS...AND WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW UP INTO THE CAPROCK REGION SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO INITIATION IN WHAT IS OTHERWISE SOMEWHAT NEUTRAL MID LEVEL
FORCING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FURTHERMORE...WE EXPECT SOME
ORGANIZATION TO CELLS INITIATION ON A BACK-BENT PORTION OF THE
DRYLINE OVER SOUTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST KS...AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL STALL OVER NE CO / NW KS. ADDING ALL OF THIS
UP...EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF RAINFALL ON MONDAY COMPARED TO
SUNDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGHING LEANING OUT MORE INTO THE
PLAINS...AND STRONGER WIND FIELDS LEADING TO GREATER ORGANIZATION
AND PERSISTENCE. THE CAP WILL LIKELY LIMIT STORM LONGEVITY OVER
FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS...BUT FARTHER EAST SOME LOOSELY FORMED DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER EAST TX INTO LOUISIANA. THE
APPROACH TO DRAWING ALL OF THIS IN THE QPF WAS TO FAVOR THE ECMWF
AND GFS AS A STARTING POINT...AND RELY ON THE WRF-NMM AND NSSL WRF
FOR THE DETAILS. WE KEPT AN EYE TOWARD CONTINUITY AS WELL...AS THE
PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST GAVE US A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR MANY OF
THESE FEATURES.


...EASTERN U.S...

AT THE SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAD MOVE UP PAST COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ALOFT...HEIGHT FALLS
HAD REORGANIZED OVER VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA...SPURRING
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA AND FRONTAL WAVE AT THE
SURFACE OFFSHORE. THIS LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BY MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL INFLUENCE ON
THE DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...WITH PARTIAL HEATING
AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT LEADING TO SHALLOW CONVECTION AS
SUGGESTED BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. JUST AS OCCURRED
YESTERDAY...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAVORED ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERY...NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHERE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW STRONGER HEATING. TODAY THIS
CORRIDOR IS LIKELY TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DOWN
THROUGH THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALSO WESTWARD INTO THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS. WITH THE CONVECTION BEING SHALLOW AND MOVING ALONG
QUICKLY...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN. WHEN THE
SYNOPTIC LOW NEARS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...MODELS SUGGEST
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE COULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH INVERTED TROUGHING ALOFT
WILL EXTEND INLAND AND SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED RAIN...MAINLY
LIGHT. WPC STARTED WITH A BLEND OF THE NSSL WRF...ECMWF...AND
PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 24/12Z
 0.01 535152 535139 534125 537120 537112 536110 536105 536096
      528074 524073 520075 514074 512075 499063 496061 494064
      492069 489075 484084 483093 482098 466090 463090 463088
      463080 467068 471058 475054 477049 481039 477039 473043
      471048 468053 463059 458066 454076 451086 450089 448092
      446094 443091 439091 436093 434092 426086 424086 424090
      427094 429099 427102 425103 419107 416109 414106 409097
      408098 406102 404107 405111 405116 411123 415128 414136
      406135 404137 399138 395138 393142 388152 382160 378164
      374166 368171 366177 366185 368196 372203 376205 381207
      384210 390212 394211 398213 399217 396220 392222 389221
      386221 383225 385234 387238 390241 400244 406246 409245
      420248 426250 430250 439247 447245 452244 457244 466244
      470244 474245 479243 480236 479230 476229 475230 473226
      476223 482224 487226 494234 501242 506244 510247 513245
      515240 516236 514232 510221 506213 512193 521170 527170
      531167 535152
 0.01 541917 541908 539901 536898 531900 515915 513917 511915
      512907 511897 514890 521879 515866 510856 506854 503856
      500856 499852 498842 497839 493839 487840 480841 476844
      465851 456859 447865 413891 409895 405898 401903 396906
      386913 381915 378920 375924 371927 366931 361929 337925
      331926 329929 326929 323926 317923 310920 304920 299922
      295926 293929 293937 292943 290949 286953 284960 282962
      282966 284970 293989 291995 292001 296005 294007 291007
      281011 277014 275018 274022 279026 283029 290029 293028
      298028 303032 314036 318036 324033 325024 347020 357017
      364018 367024 372036 375041 379042 385039 386037 389040
      383051 387053 391057 391061 391064 394064 397062 400062
      400065 397069 392073 392077 394078 401078 404075 406072
      410073 412071 414065 418061 421058 423050 421043 421039
      424037 423033 420020 417013 416007 416997 417993 419992
      429983 434980 439979 444977 450976 459974 468968 477963
      490960 495958 501957 510954 516951 522948 530940 536929
      539923 541917
 0.01 482193 479185 474178 470175 467175 465177 462181 462186
      450197 444201 441198 440195 441182 442176 444171 443166
      440163 434157 433149 437139 440136 444134 447132 447128
      445124 441122 437120 434121 430125 428129 427134 427139
      425149 425160 422164 419166 414160 412160 410163 409169
      405175 401185 401192 406193 411187 415177 418175 422174
      427180 433196 435206 436211 441214 445214 448213 455210
      470205 477202 482193
 0.01 479999 479996 475996 468996 465001 461005 459010 458013
      458018 459020 464016 468014 472009 475004 479999
 0.01 442669 438658 434656 432655 431657 426659 422663 415672
      408680 398685 391688 387691 379698 372705 366713 350728
      344730 340733 331739 326748 327755 328759 330760 340757
      341764 340766 340770 341779 343783 344788 346788 351784
      355782 359785 362789 366791 368795 365797 359798 357804
      356810 357817 361819 370822 380817 384818 391817 397817
      401815 405813 409808 412803 413797 417785 416780 418776
      420770 422765 434745 435741 434735 439724 440719 441712
      442696 441681 442669
 0.01 343169 341167 338165 336164 332164 329163 325163 323163
      321164 320169 322171 324172 327173 331174 335174 337174
      339172 341170 343169
 0.01 331787 331783 330779 329777 328772 326771 324769 322768
      320769 318772 318776 319780 320784 322786 324787 326788
      329788 331787
 0.01 288810 281806 280803 281799 282794 284785 285780 284773
      282769 279770 276774 274778 273783 273785 271785 267783
      263785 251798 247806 243815 241819 242826 245829 247826
      253831 258830 258823 254815 253811 255810 262815 272817
      279819 283817 284814 286813 288810
 0.01 269019 266013 264007 261002 257998 253995 248994 246999
      245004 248010 251014 256018 261019 269019
 0.25 509115 510110 510106 508099 506094 504091 501089 498089
      496092 493097 489100 488103 489106 492112 496116 501119
      505119 509115
 0.25 500175 499167 497159 498154 501149 502142 499135 496130
      491127 485125 480125 473125 469128 467134 465144 464149
      465154 467159 474169 478173 483176 489179 495179 498177
      500175
 0.25 494916 494911 492909 489908 487904 487895 486892 484888
      482887 483884 485879 487871 487864 486858 484856 482858
      472867 468873 464880 461887 459891 455893 450896 444901
      439906 432907 420914 406922 396931 391936 385940 380943
      373946 364946 357948 349963 348965 347962 345954 341949
      336948 334951 328966 324973 322982 320989 319999 320004
      319009 318015 320018 325018 328017 335015 343015 349010
      354006 359002 364001 368003 372000 376995 380994 382996
      383001 387004 389006 389011 389016 391019 396023 399024
      402027 404030 405035 407034 408028 408022 407018 405009
      405998 406993 408991 413986 423977 433967 439963 444962
      447965 449967 452967 457962 463959 469955 475951 480946
      486939 489934 493926 494916
 0.25 424691 424689 423688 421688 420689 419690 419692 421694
      422696 424694 424693 424691
 0.25 426719 424715 421712 418712 414713 411717 409721 407726
      409733 413733 417731 421728 424725 426720 426719
 0.25 420702 420699 419697 418700 418702 418703 420702 420702
 0.25 402723 402718 400713 396709 390708 381709 380711 376713
      370718 367723 364725 360726 356731 353737 353744 356746
      359745 362742 367744 374741 376743 376748 374751 377755
      381750 384747 387746 391744 395739 397732 400728 402723
 0.25 390201 390197 389194 388192 386189 384186 382185 379183
      376185 376189 377191 378194 380197 382199 384200 387202
      390201
 0.50 491150 492144 491139 486134 479130 475130 472133 472137
      473141 479145 480148 479152 477155 477158 478162 480166
      484168 488167 488164 487158 489153 491150
 0.50 486927 484921 480916 479912 479907 477902 474901 470902
      466905 458915 453925 450932 449939 448947 448951 450954
      453958 459956 464953 467949 468945 470942 474944 482934
      486927
 0.50 444942 445938 444934 439932 431931 426930 403936 398938
      393941 385949 376955 371958 366958 360958 360962 361966
      364971 368974 373978 375983 380986 385988 389992 391999
      392009 392013 395013 398008 400000 402993 405989 407982
      408972 412968 421963 426960 433959 440952 444942
 0.50 394724 393719 391715 384715 375715 370720 366728 364735
      365740 369740 376735 381734 384736 387735 391729 394724
 0.50 358738 356739 356741 357742 358741 358739 358738
 0.50 361992 361987 360985 357983 353984 349987 346991 342997
      340002 339006 340010 344009 347006 351002 355998 360994
      361992
 0.50 351974 351971 350969 349971 348972 348974 347976 348978
      350976 351974
 0.50 342971 341967 337963 333965 332969 329980 326989 322999
      324004 323007 324016 330010 331006 332999 332993 330989
      330985 333983 337981 339978 342971
 1.00 469925 469922 469921 468922 467923 466925 465925 464927
      462928 461930 460932 460933 462933 463932 464932 465931
      466930 467928 468927 469925 469925
 1.00 389725 389723 387722 383722 381718 375717 372721 371725
      370729 372733 375730 380728 384726 387727 389725
 1.00 402961 402957 401956 395955 388963 387968 391971 393972
      393975 389973 383972 382968 379966 377967 375971 378975
      382978 386980 389984 395985 398982 398970 399967 402962
      402961
 1.50 379723 378721 376720 374721 373722 373724 373725 373727
      372729 373729 374729 375727 376726 376724 378723 379723

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.