Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 141853
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 15/0000 UTC THRU AUG 16/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

....EASTERN OK EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC...

A WAVY MOISTURE-LADEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE
CAROLINAS BACK INTO OK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS
AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES INTERACT WITH THE
CORRESPONDING AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE.  PWS OF 1.75 TO 2.25 INCHES
INTERACTING WITH A STRING OF SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BACK INTO OK WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS.  DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES...WHILE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PARALLEL
TO THE BOUNDARY MAY ENCOURAGE CELL TRAINING.  WHILE MOST OF THE
HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS ONGOING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WANE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER TO THE WEST MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
ADDITIONAL HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR INTO THE TN
VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS...

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS AS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S.  DEEPENING MOISTURE ALONG
AN AMPLIFYING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA...WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING HEAVY AMOUNTS
DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG THE NEB/SD
BORDER TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST...

DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SLOW
MOVING AFTERNOON CONVECTION BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW ALONG THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST.  WHILE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MAY
HAMPER DEVELOPMENT...STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE SLOW
MOVING GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. AND GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE...THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS AS WELL.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACROSS WEST TX AND FAR EASTERN NM THIS PERIOD..  THIS
ALONG WITH AN LOW LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING BACK-TO-BACK DAYS OF LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ALONG THE
EASTERN NM BORDER INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

PEREIRA


24HR QP VT 16/00Z
 0.01 546074 547066 546059 542048 539039 532034 528033 525030
      521028 521023 519017 522015 519009 516004 513001 506995
      501993 497990 490984 487979 482979 479980 476977 468970
      461962 453958 444955 436952 433950 430945 424930 421921
      420917 422912 429904 438900 450899 455898 459896 465895
      468890 471880 471873 468870 463871 459873 456872 452867
      447859 447852 448847 452837 455829 455824 455819 453814
      451810 445812 441813 443809 450803 459796 464795 468792
      472790 473795 477809 482822 484834 488844 491848 494851
      497849 498844 498836 496830 491811 490807 489801 487795
      486788 485770 487758 492747 495738 496734 499734 501739
      506741 510739 513733 514728 513712 511696 509681 508673
      506669 504662 502656 498651 495658 494661 492656 489652
      486650 480647 474655 459670 452678 447685 434703 429712
      426722 422730 415731 413735 410737 407726 399737 396746
      394751 391754 385753 381753 381750 388742 394735 400729
      405720 410709 416690 418680 419669 419659 417647 414644
      411644 402647 395654 390660 386664 383670 380682 378687
      377693 376707 375712 373717 369724 363731 357737 354740
      353745 353748 356750 360750 362750 362753 358758 356761
      351764 343768 339771 337776 333787 330798 322804 313809
      310810 305810 296806 289802 280799 276797 274794 269794
      271792 274789 271787 263787 259788 258791 258796 255799
      252802 251806 252814 254819 263826 270829 277836 280848
      282861 282869 284873 283877 283883 282896 282907 280917
      282928 283934 284938 284943 288945 303949 308950 313948
      318947 321944 327937 331933 334932 336945 337950 343948
      348950 351954 355963 356973 357980 357987
 0.01 357987 357996 354999 352997 343990 338988 335991 328998
      324003 320005 314009 307013 296012 287011 280013 276017
      274022 276026 280031 283035 285037 284039 277045 272048
      267050 252046 245046 239047 233049 228053 227061 230065
      233070 237074 253086 264092 271094 280095 286095 294096
      301098 309099 311098 312094 312090 310087 306084 304078
      314076 324081 333090 339094 341096 345096 347093 346090
      343085 333075 330070 334066 338062 344060 351059 361058
      367055 370055 374059 378064 376073 377076 381076 385072
      388065 388061 386058 383058 381051 380048 383048 389047
      392048 395043 398039 400038 403039 406042 405047 404058
      400076 397094 396112 401114 405114 406111 408112 409115
      411122 413125 415123 418126 416134 414140 408155 406161
      405170 406172 408168 410163 412161 415155 417151 418147
      422133 426127 431124 437125 442128 452128 458126 461126
      462123 461119 461113 459106 460098 461092 460089 460079
      460073 462070 463054 468056 475057 481058 483060 486061
      494066 497067 497071 494077 491084 491094 493102 495109
      497118 498126 501142 507144 510145 513147 519154 523143
      525139 524137 524128 523117 523104 525094 526091 529091
      541087 543086 544081 546074
 0.01 448763 447758 445755 444757 441759 439761 437763 436766
      435769 433772 434775 437774 438772 442771 443769 446766
      448763
 0.01 438818 431816 428815 427810 422785 420781 416783 412782
      408783 406793 404799 401802 392812 391824 388833 381848
      376855 371860 366876 365881 364887 366898 368908 369918
      371929 374938 379945 384949 391944 395934 398926 398917
      398904 398890 397877 396869 398846 398841 401838 406834
      411828 415825 420824 430821 432822 435821 438818
 0.01 390975 389972 389970 387968 386967 384966 382968 384970
      386972 387974 389976 390975
 0.01 385029 385027 384025 382025 381025 379026 379028 378031
      378033 378035 377037 377040 377042 377044 378046 379046
      381044 381042 381040 381038 382037 383035 383033 383031
      384031 385029
 0.01 381986 380977 377970 375966 370967 370979 368987 366996
      365003 371008 373010 376010 378007 379001 378992 379989
      381986
 0.01 335832 333831 331831 329829 328831 328833 328835 330837
      332837 333835 335832
 0.25 518046 516044 516043 515043 513042 512043 513044 515044
      516046 518046 518046
 0.25 486707 486702 483701 481702 475710 471718 469722 469729
      469741 470756 470760 472764 475761 476756 479747 481736
      484725 486714 486707
 0.25 493028 494023 493019 491012 487008 483007 476004 471000
      463991 454983 447976 440966 435967 428969 423966 421959
      419947 416939 414932 414920 415910 414900 413898 410898
      408904 407910 406918 407925 400936 398944 397952 397960
      398966 400974 402981 398998 411015 412021 415027 417034
      416039 414043 412045 412050 416054 421056 423059 422063
      421072 422082 420090 417097 416103 417106 419107 424106
      428103 433102 439105 442111 446113 450109 453103 453098
      452092 451084 451077 447061 447055 451050 460046 466033
      472031 479031 487030 493028
 0.25 467689 467682 464680 459681 456685 451691 446699 442707
      438717 440721 445720 451715 454712 457707 461699 466692
      467689
 0.25 438859 438849 437840 433837 430837 426838 423843 423850
      425855 425862 424869 426874 431872 435868 437861 438859
 0.25 409676 408670 406667 403668 397678 394683 391690 387701
      382713 378725 378731 381733 384731 392724 399714 405703
      408691 409684 409676
 0.25 413849 413845 412842 409843 407844 406846 404848 403852
      402855 403859 403862 405866 408864 409861 411859 412856
      413852 413849
 0.25 390794 390786 387781 384778 381777 375776 371773 363765
      353769 347775 343779 341784 341788 342791 349790 355790
      357792 351798 347802 346809 347818 349824 350832 349837
      347842 347845 350849 352855 351862 348866 341874 333878
      329881 325885 324889 322894 324898 327900 331904 334912
      337924 340929 343936 344941 350942 353945 357947 361944
      363938 363929 362921 360908 357899 353888 359876 362866
      363861 362854 361848 361841 362838 364837 369834 373832
      375839 379839 382837 385833 387827 388813 390794
 0.25 363032 360027 356023 352019 347016 343019 339025 335030
      337033 339035 346037 350037 357036 361034 363032
 0.25 317898 317892 315888 310878 306870 305857 303846 298836
      293829 290830 289832 290837 294847 296859 297872 298877
      300880 302880 299888 296892 294897 293908 294920 296930
      299935 303934 307932 310928 313918 315907 317898
 0.25 313043 314036 312032 309023 303024 303026 304029 303032
      299036 291054 278067 274067 273073 271074 268074 263071
      260069 257069 257071 259076 262080 268085 273087 278089
      288088 294089 297089 298086 292079 290076 292071 299066
      306059 309049 313043
 0.25 271810 270808 269805 267802 265801 261802 259804 257805
      255808 256811 258812 260813 264814 267814 270815 270812
      271810
 0.50 481018 480019 482020 484020 483019 481018
 0.50 461691 460687 458689 455692 454694 452696 450699 448702
      448704 449708 452706 454705 455702 457700 459697 460694
      461691
 0.50 460008 461003 460998 458993 450986 445983 443987 439986
      439981 437978 433975 427974 423974 421972 419963 418957
      416951 415949 412950 409956 407963 408971 410978 410984
      407999 409006 413010 418014 420019 423025 428028 428044
      432040 434038 435041 437043 440044 446041 456038 457033
      454026 453019 455015 457010 460008
 0.50 442072 443065 438062 433063 431066 429071 427076 426082
      427084 430082 433078 436074 438071 441073 442072
 0.50 431094 431092 430092 429092 428094 427094 429096 431095
      431094
 0.50 394708 394706 393705 392706 392707 390709 389711 389712
      389714 391714 392713 393712 393711 394709 394708
 0.50 405949 405945 405942 403938 402940 401945 402949 402954
      401959 402963 403964 405961 405956 405952 405949
 0.50 383806 385800 382800 378803 375803 379798 381797 383793
      384788 382786 379785 376785 374787 370799 364807 357809
      354813 354817 356819 367821 375816 379814 381814 382818
      384812 383806
 0.50 368782 366776 364773 361769 357770 353772 350774 346778
      346783 347785 352784 358783 362784 365784 368782
 0.50 359938 360931 359923 357912 355905 353901 346893 340884
      337885 337893 338900 339906 341919 345930 348934 350934
      359939 359938
 0.50 354029 354027 353027 352025 351024 350023 348022 347023
      345024 343026 341028 340030 341030 343031 344032 346032
      348033 350032 352032 353031 353030 354029
 0.50 305916 305911 305907 304905 302901 301899 299897 297897
      296899 297903 297905 298910 299914 299916 302918 304918
      305916
 0.50 300853 300851 300849 300846 300844 299843 299842 297840
      297842 297845 298846 298847 299849 299851 300853 300854
      300853
 0.50 266810 266808 266806 265805 263805 261806 260807 259807
      258809 259811 260812 262812 264812 266811 266810
 1.00 431987 432984 432980 428979 424980 420982 417985 415990
      413996 412001 414005 418006 422004 424001 427997 429992
      431988 431987
 1.00 358776 357774 355774 354775 353775 352777 352778 351780
      352781 354781 356780 357779 357778 358776
 1.00 355930 355925 355921 355919 354914 353912 351908 349907
      348908 346911 345914 345919 346922 347925 349928 352928
      354930 355930
 1.00 436997 436999 437001 440001 440998 438997 436997
 1.50 429985 429982 426982 424984 422986 421987 419989 417992
      415996 415998 415001 418001 420999 422996 424994 426992
      427990 428987 429985
 1.50 353921 353919 352916 352914 351914 350912 350911 349912
      348914 348917 349919 350921 352923 353921

$$




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