Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 150715
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
214 AM EST WED FEB 15 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 15/1200 UTC THRU FEB 16/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


...LOWER GREAT LAKES EASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...

THE CONTINUED HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH THE FULL-LATITUDE UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE PROTRUDING WELL INTO NORTHERN CANADA...WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRONG HEIGHT FALLS PLUNGING ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ENSUING COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS WILL LEAD TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE SLIGHT MODELS
DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN TERMS OF THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
DEEPENING LOW...THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM HAVE ALL TRENDED A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAX QPF AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ALBEIT RATHER COMPACT...WEST TO EAST LOW-MID LAYER FRONTOGENESIS
WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING DEFORMATION AXIS. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS PER THE
I280-290 SURFACES IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AS THE MODELS SHOW
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
UNDERGOING STEEP UPGLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN ME INTO MUCH OF NH AND
THE NORTHERN HALF OF VT. WPC UTILIZED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WITH THE
QPF...INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF AND SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
(WRF-ARW IN PARTICULAR)...WHICH AS NOTED ABOVE HAS RESULTED IN A
SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE 1-1.5" AREAL-AVERAGE LIQUID TOTALS INTO
SOUTHERN NE AND EASTERN NH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ANOTHER RAMIFICATION OF THE SHARPENING DEEP-LAYER DEFORMATION AND
FGEN WILL BE THE TIGHTENING MOISTURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH...AS
THE MODEL CONSENSUS NOW HAS THE 0.10-0.25" AMOUNTS NOW SOUTH OF
CAR.

FARTHER WEST...LAKE-ENHANCED SNOWS OFF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH
THE WEST FLOW VEERING NW WILL BRING MODEST LIQUID-EQUIVALENT
AMOUNTS...TO THE TUNE OF 0.25-0.50+ INCH ACROSS WESTERN AND
UPSTATE NY ALONG WITH FAR NORTHWEST PA. WPC UTILIZED MORE HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE IN THESE REGION (INCLUDING THE WRF-ARW...NAM CONEST...AND
HREF MEAN) IN AN EFFORT TO BETTER CAPTURE THE MESOSCALE DETAILS.
SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.


...SOUTHEAST AND THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC REGION...

THE PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LINK
UP WITH THE LARGER-SCALE...AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH...WILL RESULT A FAIRLY QUICK PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH MODEST QPF AMOUNTS TODAY AS THE FRONT AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW PUSHES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. PER A
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...QPF TOTALS GENERALLY RANGED FROM
0.25-0.50" FROM SOUTHERN VA/LOWER DELMARVA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GA.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO FAR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...

HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PAC NW WILL BE EXPANDING SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN CA THIS PERIOD PER THE APPROACHING BROAD UPPER
TROUGH AND INCREASINGLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE. ROBUST
WARM CONVEYOR BELT MECHANICS AND ATTENDANT ELONGATED ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CA THIS PERIOD PER THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND HEIGHT FALLS.   STRENGTHENING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN AN AXIS OF PW VALUES 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS ACROSS THE COASTAL
RANGES FROM WA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CA...ALONG WITH THE WA
CASCADES. HIGHEST TOTALS...AVERAGING BETWEEN 3-4+ INCHES WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES...ARE AGAIN EXPECTED OVER THE
OLYMPIC AND CASCADE RANGES IN NORTHERN WA.

HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 16/12Z
 0.01 360285 366286 374286 386285 402283 417283 425286 433289
      439294 442299 454313 461316 467316 473316 479313 484310
      489307 494303 500298 510289 515283 517281 519275 524258
      526244 527239 528231 530225 532223 536218 539211 540198
      538191 536184 534179 532176 525169 521163 515158 494141
      489136 484135 481132 478132 476134 474136 476138 479140
      483141 486143 482149 467146 464144 462146 456152 452153
      448152 442149 432158 425168 428177 429180 428186 428198
      426202 421201 408203 396206 391211 386216 371222 360227
      353228 349232 345240 341247 338250 337256 336265 344270
      348274 350278
 0.01 484648 483640 480636 476632 472631 464629 454630 447632
      440635 431640 415645 409646 402647 392650 382655 377658
      375662 374667 375674 378680 383684 392687 372702 342728
      334736 328745 322755 316764 267831 264835 265839 269849
      264857 262860 262867 262875 263879 264880 277880 285875
      295867 303861 306858 311855 316853 321853 330855 333855
      336854 341851 346842 352849 356844 358842 362843 365845
      367840 371829 375820 381812 390810 393808 396809 401813
      404818 409822 420820 426822 430821 440826 446829 448824
      450821 453821 458818 460817 459813 459805 457801 455800
      453799 449799 443800 437804 434804 431804 429802 429797
      433792 434787 437778 442768 445764 449765 457772 463771
      467767 469761 469749 475742 485737 489732 491728 492723
      491715 475672 481662 483654 484648
 0.01 478872 476860 474854 472850 468847 464844 461844 456842
      440846 441856 438858 435859 429859 426859 424858 422855
      417857 413861 416868 420870 426869 445863 450863 455864
      459866 461871 464875 466881 464886 462893 463900 467901
      469897 471890 475882 478872
 0.01 420740 420737 420735 419734 417736 416738 416739 414741
      416743 418742 419741 420740
 0.01 416760 416753 415750 416746 415742 412742 408736 407731
      408726 407720 404718 398725 395731 393741 388760 383777
      377794 377798 378800 384796 389790 392787 396786 398784
      403782 409777 414771 416767 416760 416760
 0.01 258791 258786 255784 249779 244779 241782 239785 234792
      233800 232810 231818 228836 225843 224847 225851 228852
      232852 239848 245845 248843 251839 253836 253832 252820
      252815 253810 256802 258791
 0.25 533206 534200 534195 532189 526177 522172 514168 509166
      501164 488160 478157 474158 472159 468165 467170 465173
      458175 454179 451185 449191 446199 445203 444208 441212
      438213 428211 423213 415212 405213 398215 393219 388223
      383225 373230 363235 356245 355251 356254 360260 363266
      367270 372273 377274 392272 403270 451264 463265 475267
      481270 485275 489283 495287 501288 506286 510282 513277
      517270 521260 521250 519241 510215 509206 510201 513200
      517203 519205 524211 529212 533206
 0.25 486233 487231 487229 486228 485227 484226 483227 483229
      483232 485233 486233 486233
 0.25 469643 467640 463638 455638 445641 436646 428651 421656
      416662 414669 414677 412687 414695 414698 417702 423711
      425717 428719 426728 425734 428738 432741 437741 436744
      432745 425750 423756 423762 424768 427772 428775 427777
      424781 419787 416793 415799 417804 421804 429788 430785
      430781 430778 432776 436768 439763 442759 447754 454746
      461739 467733 469729 469723 473712 475707 475703 474700
      462692 459687 460681 462676 463670 467657 469650 469643
 0.25 457197 458195 458192 458190 457189 456189 454190 453191
      453193 452195 453197 455198 457197 457197
 0.25 404663 403659 397659 394659 390660 385663 382666 381672
      385674 391674 396672 400669 402666 404663
 0.25 390725 389720 385721 381725 376732 373734 369736 362738
      356742 344752 336762 331768 328775 326783 326792 325801
      323810 323818 325823 324830 323836 325840 327842 332842
      336838 345826 350820 352815 355807 356802 359801 357809
      356813 357817 359816 362812 365805 376776 381762 385745
      388735 390725
 0.25 306839 306837 304835 302833 299833 297834 295836 294839
      293843 294847 296848 300848 303846 305844 306842 306839
 0.25 243803 244801 242799 242801 242803 243804 243803
 0.50 528204 530199 529194 527188 524182 521181 511172 507170
      504171 501171 499169 487164 482164 477165 473173 471181
      468191 469200 464201 461201 459203 455209 452213 446215
      440217 437219 434219 430217 427218 423224 418223 416217
      411216 404219 399222 394225 387225 382227 377231 369237
      366239 364241 363246 364250 372259 377264 382268 388268
      393267 406264 418264 431262 441261 453260 460259 467259
      474261 480264 485268 488273 493278 500282 505282 509278
      516266 519259 519251 517242 515234 512226 509219 502208
      495199 494195 496192 499188 501185 506187 512190 528204
 0.50 488234 489231 488230 488228 487227 486225 484224 482224
      481226 481229 482230 482232 483234 484235 486234 488234
      488234
 0.50 463648 462643 458641 453643 448646 439650 435653 433660
      432664 430668 423675 421680 422687 421692 423701 426710
      427713 432716 436724 439729 441730 444729 453725 457726
      460725 462723 462718 460715 455715 452711 452698 451695
      452689 451684 452681 457670 461661 463650 463648
 0.50 431730 430730 429729 428731 429733 431732 431730
 0.50 433764 434761 433759 433756 432756 430756 428757 428758
      428760 427762 428764 429765 431765 432764 433764
 0.50 355770 352768 347770 341777 336786 335792 334800 333811
      332824 332828 333830 337829 338828 344818 347807 350795
      353785 355773 355770
 1.00 515256 516250 515244 512234 508223 502213 496207 489202
      485198 485195 487186 484181 479178 477183 476190 477195
      477199 473205 471209 467209 464208 461207 459208 457212
      454216 452221 450228 447232 443234 435236 425232 416228
      415221 411221 405229 396229 392230 387229 385230 383233
      384239 386244 386250 385256 389258 409258 427257 436255
      445253 453252 460250 464249 469249 479256 486262 491268
      495273 499276 504274 506268 512263 515256
 1.00 492238 491234 490230 489227 487225 484223 481222 478223
      479226 480229 481233 482236 486236 489237 492238
 1.00 449662 450660 449657 448657 447659 445660 445661 444662
      443664 443665 442667 441668 441670 441672 442673 444673
      445671 446671 447669 447668 448666 448665 449662 449662
 1.00 448714 445712 446707 444703 441699 438697 433697 430700
      430706 432711 435713 439715 444715 448714 448714
 1.50 512250 512241 509233 502216 498211 490207 484204 480205
      476207 472214 468212 464212 462210 459213 457217 455220
      456224 459230 446236 443242 446244 449244 464244 471246
      478250 485256 490263 495269 500272 502269 502262 499254
      495246 491240 486238 483240 481235 478228 475226 472228
      470227 470224 472220 479220 488223 492229 494237 500244
      506253 508256 511254 512250
 1.50 444710 442709 441709 440707 438704 436704 435705 436707
      436708 438709 439709 440711 440712 442713 444711 444710
 1.50 434249 431241 429237 423234 415231 412231 407234 399232
      395235 394240 393247 396250 398252 401253 410253 415253
      418252 427252 434249
 1.50 390236 389234 388232 387233 387235 387236 389237 390236
 2.00 510246 510241 508235 504226 501217 499214 494211 486207
      483206 479208 476211 475215 479218 483220 487221 491224
      494235 500242 506249 509248 510246
 2.00 500266 500262 498257 494248 492243 489240 483242 480232
      477228 475228 473231 469240 476246 484250 489258 495267
      498269 500266
 2.00 467237 465235 463236 463237 464239 465239 466239 467238
      467237
 2.00 468220 469217 468216 467217 466219 467221 468220
 2.00 463238 462236 460235 458235 457235 455236 454236 453237
      451237 449237 451238 453238 454239 455238 456238 458239
      460239 461238 463238
 2.00 465222 466219 465216 463213 462212 461213 460214 459215
      458217 457219 457220 457222 458223 460225 462225 463223
      464223 465222
 2.00 429245 429243 428239 425237 423236 420234 416234 414235
      413238 415241 417243 418245 421247 425248 428247 429245
 2.00 406245 407243 406242 404241 404240 403238 403237 402236
      400236 398236 398237 398239 399241 400243 401244 402247
      403247 405245 406245
 3.00 503236 503233 502230 501226 500222 499219 498216 496214
      494215 493220 493222 494227 495231 496234 498236 499237
      502238 503236
 3.00 495259 495257 495254 494252 493251 492249 492248 491246
      490246 488247 489249 489250 489252 490253 491255 491256
      492258 493259 494261 495259
 3.00 491216 490215 490213 489213 487213 486212 484212 482214
      484215 485217 486217 487218 488219 489219 490217 491216
 3.00 479244 479241 479239 479236 479235 479233 478232 476230
      474232 473234 473236 473239 473240 475242 476243 478244
      479244
 4.00 499232 499229 498227 498224 498223 497221 496220 495220
      495223 495226 495228 496231 497232 498233 499232
 4.00 478238 478235 478234 477233 476232 474234 474237 475238
      477239 478238

$$





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