Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 301832
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
231 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 31/0000 UTC THRU SEP 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


CENTRAL GULF COAST--TN VALLEY---OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST

AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN
NORTHEASTWARD DAY 1 FROM THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST---INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY---TN VALLEY---OH VALLEY AND INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE ELONGATED MEAN TROF PUSHING EASTWARD FROM THE MS
VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS TROF IS COMPRISED OF BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS--WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
TOTALS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM VORT PRESSING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  WELL DEFINED UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THIS SOUTHERN STREAM AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS WILL
ENHANCE UVVS IN THE AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES.  THIS WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DAY 1
FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST---TN VALLEY---MID TO UPPER
OH VALLEY--AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE HEAVIEST
TOTALS THIS PERIOD---AND GREATEST RISK FOR EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS---FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE MID TN VALLEY AND
MID TO UPPER OH VALLEY--WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC---NY STATE AND NEW ENGLAND---ALTHOUGH HEAVY
TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT HERE ALSO.  FOR
QPF DETAILS---THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER EASTWARD AXES OF THE HI RES
ARW/NMM AND CMC GEM WERE FAVORED.

TEXAS GULF COAST

WHILE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF
COAST ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD DAY 1---A SEPARATE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE
LOWER TX COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT---FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD
AND INLAND DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS CIRCULATION OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS--AFFECTING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE LOWER TO
MID TX GULF COAST.  EXPECT THIS POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THIS
PERIOD---WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.

NORTHERN ROCKIES---NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY

A COLD FRONT ON THE EASTERN END OF THE DEVELOPING MEAN UPPER TROF
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION WILL PUSH FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.  FAIRLY WELL DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN A NARROW AXIS OF
ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING
FRONT.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY---WITH THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED MEAN FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE MODEL
QPF DIFFERENCES.  SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN MEAN TROF.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 550947 550940 547933 544922 539910 537906 534904 524901
      519901 514900 504900 501898 495898 491900 485901 475902
      466906 458911 440920 433925 424930 415935 408940 405944
      405949 404958 406964 410975 413987 416013 416020 412026
      408035 398053 390060 387065 387071 390080 393084 395083
      399081 402081 405084 408089 410094 409101 410106 410112
      412118 434142 424144 421146 418152 416157 415163 417175
      419180 421185 425187 431186 436187 438188 440190 443194
      448195 455188 459177 463174 467173 472173 476170 479167
      481161 485159 489154 493147 494140 491136 479134 476133
      474131 472125 472117 475112 476109 475103 475098 475092
      470079 467069 467063 466055 470051 475054 476051 476048
      477046 485044 496043 515041 519040 525040 530039 533037
      536033 540029 542023 543017 545010 543005 538997 536992
      533989 530986 526984 532978 538976 541973 543965 546959
      548951 550947
 0.01 531213 532203 532195 531186 529180 526174 523168 517156
      514152 508150 503150 500157 500165 502173 506185 512197
      519207 522211 529214 531213
 0.01 521264 521258 520255 514248 512241 508232 506230 504226
      501219 498211 491208 484208 481208 477210 465213 458212
      451214 438216 432220 429222 428226 429229 433230 437231
      440229 452223 458228 460230 463229 474223 481223 485224
      487226 495241 499248 499251 497252 496249 493247 492243
      488244 486250 487255 489262 492271 497276 501282 507285
      512280 515275 521264
 0.01 513691 507669 501649 501638 497635 486630 480636 473639
      467644 461651 452662 441674 436681 432688 424701 415714
      407727 399739 391753 380784 377792 373799 364811 357816
      351819 337825 332821 336814 340808 340803 338801 325807
      322808 320809 319807 316804 313804 305801 297800 289799
      282797 275794 267793 252794 246798 243802 240809 238814
      242821 245829 251835 253836 259836 265840 268841 274841
      277840 280837 286840 291843 295850 298856 303863 308867
      312863 315856 316854 318856 320859 320865 319872 311874
      302875 298875 296877 283885 279892 278896 278900 282906
      291907 300907 296913 285922 279929 275935 251947 239957
      237958 236963 236975 240981 248984 253986 260989 268988
      275990 283992 291988 302979 310969 318956 326942 332930
      338924 346923 356912 361907 367902 379893 385889 389883
      392876 398870 408859 413852 419849 435845 443844 446844
      447847 449850 453857 458864 463869 471868 475863 479857
      488841 492823 494814 496807 498796 501788 503778 506769
      509749 510727 511705 513691
 0.01 483247 481243 479239 476236 471234 466233 463236 463241
      466245 470247 473251 478252 481249 483247
 0.01 458239 459235 457233 452234 446235 442237 437239 431241
      430243 432245 438244 443245 450245 454243 458239
 0.01 461991 461981 460976 457976 454976 452974 447978 443981
      440988 438990 438995 436997 438000 439004 441005 444006
      448007 455008 456009 457005 459998 461991
 0.01 424079 424077 424075 422077 422079 423081 424079
 0.01 423084 423081 422079 420081 420083 421086 423084
 0.01 304905 302905 300905 299905 301907 302907 304905
 0.01 294813 291812 289810 286810 284809 282809 280807 277807
      278810 280812 282814 284815 288815 292815 294813
 0.01 288091 285085 281081 272073 262065 252057 247054 240052
      237051 236054 237061 239069 243073 247077 253081 263088
      268092 272096 276101 281099 285095 288091
 0.25 528957 528935 524928 518926 509925 501924 493926 487929
      480934 478937 476941 479951 482959 481965 477967 471970
      469974 468979 466989 464000 462010 458016 454025 450031
      445037 442044 446052 449061 452062 454058 457050 462044
      473035 480032 480027 477024 481017 486011 497000 506988
      510983 516978 520974 524969 527964 528957
 0.25 502692 501675 500667 497660 494657 491656 487657 483660
      479668 475677 469684 460689 457690 452693 447700 441706
      435713 418723 414732 412742 407751 402758 396765 391773
      387783 384793 381802 377810 357839 353848 348857 344864
      339871 332878 325883 322885 317886 311888 308890 306895
      307898 312898 319898 324898 327900 329903 331908 333913
      338913 346908 358897 373885 379880 384874 390866 395858
      404842 412824 420806 426786 430778 436770 442762 449757
      453757 456759 458764 460771 460778 460785 460793 460800
      466824 470831 474833 478832 482828 484823 487813 492790
      494779 496766 498742 502718 502703 502692
 0.25 456113 457108 456105 454098 453095 450093 445095 439096
      436101 432106 433109 437111 441115 446118 452117 456113
 0.25 309947 308939 304933 299928 294928 292930 289937 285943
      274951 263959 259964 258969 259972 266976 271980 277980
      284976 294968 303957 307952 309947
 0.25 286827 281823 277822 272820 266818 262814 260813 256812
      255816 259821 263825 267828 273829 280829 286827
 0.50 498688 497678 494673 490675 487681 479704 475716 473724
      473730 473738 472746 470759 469775 468791 468799 469807
      470813 472820 477824 479823 481820 484809 488794 490781
      495753 497738 498722 498707 498690 498688
 0.50 511967 511960 509957 503952 496948 493950 491954 492962
      492963 490967 487970 481975 474977 471980 469985 468996
      467003 465007 463016 462019 462023 465024 469024 472021
      476014 482009 493998 495995 497989 500983 510970 511967
 0.50 436746 436742 434740 428743 424745 421749 415758 410768
      408772 407778 408782 407789 405794 401799 396805 387813
      381821 369836 362844 359847 356852 351861 345869 339876
      332883 313891 311895 317895 323894 329895 335897 338901
      341904 344903 360891 375878 382870 387861 397843 402833
      406824 415804 416796 414790 414785 416778 427762 436746
 0.50 300949 298937 294938 292941 289946 285949 277955 270960
      266964 266969 269973 272976 275977 278977 281974 288967
      294959 299951 300949
 1.00 493710 492700 489703 486711 484719 481734 477749 476768
      476779 478788 480789 482788 486782 489765 491749 493730
      493720 493710 493710
 1.00 489992 489987 487985 485983 484981 482982 479984 477987
      476989 475992 475994 476999 478002 480002 482002 485000
      486997 488995 489992
 1.00 395835 394830 391831 383834 376839 372844 366851 360856
      350868 341880 336886 336891 340893 353892 359887 364880
      375871 381864 385856 392842 395835
 1.00 287964 288960 287957 283958 281958 278960 276961 274962
      272964 272968 273970 274972 277974 280972 282970 284968
      286966 287964
 1.50 383852 384847 382844 379844 370851 362858 354868 347877
      340886 349890 358883 366874 374866 378862 381857 383852
 2.00 376855 371855 365858 362862 359867 356872 354877 356879
      361874 364871 369867 373863 376857 376855

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