Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 111900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 PM EST WED JAN 11 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 12/0000 UTC THRU JAN 13/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA---GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES

LATEST MODELS ARE SIMILAR DAY 1 IN SHOWING AMPLIFICATION INTO A
CLOSED LOW OF THE NEXT AREA OF NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT TOWARD THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
AND MOVING INLAND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.  THE AXIS OF THE
MOST ANOMALOUS PW VALUES AND MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE FOCUSED INTO
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA---SUPPORTING MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP VALUES FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS.  MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTAL LIKELY FROM THROUGH THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST RANGE--SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST RANGES AND INLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA.
FARTHER INLAND---ANOMALOUS PW VALUES AND MOISTURE FLUX WILL ALSO
SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSING OFF UPPER CENTER---SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP VALUES THROUGH THE WASATCH/UINTA
AND ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES.  HEAVY SNOWS LIKELY HERE AND
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SIERRA.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL
WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

OH VALLEY---LOWER LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST

STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RAISE PW VALUES TO
2.5 TO 3.0+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD TROUGH THE LOWER LAKES---OH
VALLEY---AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST.  STRONG
FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IN THIS ANOMALOUS PW AXIS WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THESE AREAS.  A
PERIOD OF TRAINING IN A WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  IN AREAS
OF TRAINING---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY
OF SOUTHEAST MI INTO NORTHERN OH.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 13/00Z
 0.01 479617 487621 493625 497627 500632 504643 508651 513664
      515669 515673 512684 513708 512715 510722 508732 506743
      506750 505757 503770 502775 499781 495790 489797 484804
      479814 474820 469829 464839 460847 454857 451866 447877
      446882 443886 437890 432893 429891 427886 424886 417892
      401901 394908 390909 385909 378906 373906 369908 364918
      362923 359927 348941 336955 321965 318967 312967 310964
      312960 333931 335926 338922 342912 349895 355876 359867
      363858 368849 371840 379823 383812 381807 381801 381776
      381770 379766 378753 382729 385719 387715 390712 393710
      395704 396699 398694 400688 402684 407677 410674 411671
      410669 402664 395657 396644
 0.01 502893 502885 501878 499871 497867 495862 492858 487851
      483849 477849 473851 471855 468867 466880 466894 468900
      470903 474905 475901 477895 480890 485882 488881 487886
      483896 480902 480907 480915 482920 487927 491929 493926
      497916 500903 501896 502893
 0.01 471165 471157 470149 468143 468140 466138 462134 458133
      454130 453126 456119 459115 458110 454097 448075 444071
      443069 439069 437073 440077 442084 439090 437093 436094
      434093 430089 426087 424088 424091 427096 428101 427104
      424103 419106 419097 420088 421069 418057 414053 409051
      403052 397054 387059 382060 383065 380066 378064 373061
      369060 366060 365063 366067 369072 370079 371092 374096
      378097 379100 381102 381107 378112 374116 370118 365117
      361119 358119 356117 351113 346111 344114 344118 341125
      342129 347136 357143 360145 357147 353148 350147 345145
      340146 334155 313163 313167 314170 318175 325182 328186
      329193 331200 334204 337208 342211 349221 358229 365238
      370241 377243 384244 388244 395246 400249 411249 423247
      428246 431243 434237 438231 442229 447229 453227 455225
      456220 454216 450216 445218 442217 440218 435219 427218
      424220 425225 426228 426232 423235 415233 414230 416227
      420221 421214 418210 414213 410209 407209 401206 398202
      395187 396178 399171 404158 404153 403146 403136 405128
      409124 415123 424120 434117 439121 443127 445135 446138
      444142 441145 437146 436155 437158 439159 448165 454166
      458165 461166 469168 471165
 0.01 457032 458023 457016 457998 457989 455983 453982 452978
      450973 449966 445961 444958 445955 447949 452937 452930
      450925 447910 444906 440908 438909 437913 435920 433926
      431933 430939 428945 424959 425963 429967 430974 431983
      432997 434004 437009 439014 442019 449029 453035 457032
 0.01 403223 402221 401219 399219 397218 395218 395217 394216
      392215 391216 390216 389217 388218 387219 387222 388223
      389224 391224 392223 393223 395223 397223 398224 400224
      402224 403223
 0.01 372053 372050 370050 369050 367051 365051 363051 363052
      361053 359053 359054 358056 359058 361058 363057 365057
      366057 367057 368056 370055 372053 372053
 0.01 315911 315907 313905 311900 306899 302899 298897 293897
      289899 288906 288910 290912 293914 299916 306916 312915
      315911
 0.25 452627 453631 454637 454645 453655 451664 450669 448671
      443673 440675 437684 436693 436700 438705 440709 442709
      447708 451708 454711 458710 466708 469709 472707 479703
      485699 490696 494697 496699 497704 498712 495722 493725
      493732 491740 489749 489760 486770 483778 480786 476793
      472798 468805 459820 444849 441853 438855 430859 421869
      411880 407887 405890 401891 394889 390883 385876 380876
      378880 373885 373880 375877 378870 382861 387847 392831
      395820 395811 401795 402785 401779 401776 399775 395775
      393771 395761 396753 399746 405729 411713 414711 417710
      420707 420704 418702 414704 411703 410699 409693 410689
      413681 423669 427662 428658 427652 426647 426642 431634
 0.25 413115 410112 409107 408105 400110 389112 383114 379119
      375123 373127 380135 380143 383149 385147 389141 389127
      393121 397119 403117 410118 413115
 0.25 412071 410066 407064 403065 400067 394067 391065 388068
      387072 388076 392077 396078 399076 402072 404070 406071
      412071 412071
 0.25 393209 394205 394203 390199 383192 375185 365181 359179
      354182 350185 348183 347180 345169 342165 336165 330163
      325163 322164 323167 326171 332178 336187 340199 344207
      359221 366230 371232 375232 379228 380223 379217 381213
      393209
 0.25 367203 366200 364198 363196 361194 357194 355195 355198
      355200 356203 359205 361207 364207 366205 367203
 0.25 379080 380076 380073 378071 376068 375066 371064 369066
      371068 372071 373073 374077 376080 377081 379080
 0.25 365159 364157 363155 361156 360156 360158 361159 362160
      364161 365159
 0.50 475775 476771 474768 471771 469774 464776 460776 459772
      457769 452772 452767 454763 457753 459743 454737 448732
      443730 440730 432734 430737 428741 427752 424761 413774
      410782 407791 401809 398831 395851 394862 393869 395873
      397878 400881 404881 407878 416863 423846 427839 434835
      441829 445822 455808 465794 471784 475775
 0.50 389206 389201 387198 381193 376189 370184 361182 357182
      355187 361191 366196 373201 379206 386207 389206
 0.50 375223 373218 370216 368218 364213 360210 355206 352206
      352207 355212 358216 362222 366225 372227 375223
 0.50 350203 350199 348196 346188 345179 344171 342167 338166
      329164 326166 328170 333173 337180 340186 342189 343195
      345202 348204 350203
 1.00 428786 426783 423782 417783 413791 410798 408806 407817
      405833 407835 408840 406850 401865 402868 405866 408858
      410849 412841 416835 419827 425812 425801 427793 428786
 1.00 383200 382197 379194 378193 376191 373188 371187 368186
      365186 365190 367192 369194 372197 373198 376200 380201
      383200
 1.00 343180 344178 343177 343175 343173 343171 343170 341168
      339170 340172 340173 340175 341177 341179 342179 343181
      343180
 1.50 378196 377196 376194 376193 374192 373191 372190 371189
      369189 369190 370192 372194 373195 374196 375197 377197
      378196

$$





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