Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 220545
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
144 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 22/1200 UTC THRU JUL 23/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

SOUTHWEST/ROCKIES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
CHANNEL OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES RIDGE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING PEAK
HEATING.  SOME WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL AID BROADER SCALE LIFT ACRS THIS REGION.  MANUAL QPF REFLECTS
THE IMPULSE OVER WRN CO WITH LOCALIZED QPF MAX ACRS MTN S OF
CNTL/NCNTL CO.  SOME STGR STORMS COULD SPILL OUT INTO THE HI
PLAINS RIDING NRN PERIPHERY OF UPR RIDGE..BUT HOW WELL THESE
STORMS HANG TOGETHER WILL BE A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE VERY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPS.  STAYED CLOSE TO CONTINUITY ALONG WITH CONSENSUS OF
GLOBAL MODELS WITH QPF ACRS MOST OF THE AREA.


NORTHERN ROCKIES
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH UPPER TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH REASONABLY SIMILAR
MODEL QPFS.  BUMPED UP AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE MOST RECENT
GUIDANCE.  TO THE EAST, A COUPLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ND AND IA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE ND
COMPLEX EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST DUE TO STRONGER DYNAMICS
(PARTICULARLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND INSTABILITY OF 3000-5000 J/KG
PER THE 21Z SREF MEAN FORECAST) BEING AVAILABLE AS IT RIDES ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CAPPING INVERSION/CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE.  FOR THE MOST PART, WAS ABLE TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
THE 00Z WPC QPF IN THIS AREA, THOUGH THE MAXIMUM WAS NUDGED
SOMEWHAT SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED GENERAL EASTWARD
PROPAGATION.  WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING PAST
1.75", HOURLY RAIN RATES COULD EXCEED 2" WHERE CELLS MERGE AND/OR
TRAIN.


MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MOIST WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FEEDING THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY PLUNGING THROUGH EASTERN IA, CENTRAL IL, AND TOWARDS
NORTHEAST MO.  MUCAPES OF 3000-5000 J/KG CONTINUE TO EXIST AHEAD
OF THE COMPLEX.  COORDINATED WITH OUR METWATCH DESK, THE DES
MOINES IA AND KANSAS CITY FORECAST OFFICES, AS WELL THE SAB/NESDIS
CONCERNING THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN PREFERRED THROUGH 18Z, SINCE
NONE OF THE ONGOING GUIDANCE WAS DOING ESPECIALLY WELL (NOT FAST
ENOUGH) WITH ITS FORWARD PROPAGATION.  THE 15C ISOTHERM AT 700 HPA
APPEARS TO BE THE LIMIT TO THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THIS COMPLEX AS
IT UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE.  ONCE IT FADES AND DAYTIME HEATING HELPS
URGE NEW CONVECTION ALONG, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FOCUS FARTHER
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS WITH SOME
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
THE LATEST GUIDANCE ALONG WITH RECENT SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS LED
TO SOME REDUCTION IN THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS REGION, WHICH
TRENDED TOWARDS THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE 00Z
IN-HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE QPF.  THE DYNAMICS AT PLAY
(MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL INFLOW) WEAKEN JUST AS DAYTIME HEATING
BEGINS TO MAKE A CONTRIBUTION TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.


SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST/FL
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE SE/FL THIS PD WITH AREA OF
HIGH PWS..AOA 2"..UNDER UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE CNTL U.S.
EASTERLY FLOW ACRS FLOW FL WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE SW COAST OF FL
FOR THE MORE ORGANIZED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY.. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY MESOSCALE DRIVEN ACRS MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST REGION.  KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE
00Z WPC QPF WHICH STRONGLY RESEMBLED THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE.

ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 536201 536194 535189 532179 530175 527171 521163 518158
      514154 511148 513139 516126 521114 525102 528090 531077
      531065 537057 540049 542037 543031 542027 532013 521998
      515988 507980 492968 486962 479957 465946 452937 442923
      431911 418899 410892 403884 401882 401878 401874 402871
      402865 403858 409840 412836 413832 418825 428809 431806
      434802 439794 447779 451771 452768 455767 461766 466765
      470766 479769 484771 488770 496760 501752 504747 505741
      505735 506730 507716 508692 509687 509680 509678 506675
      501670 495665 489660 484661 480660 474662 470661 466659
      463663 451684 443700 440709 436717 434721 431724 429725
      427724 427718 428706 431696 434688 438678 446660 448655
      449647 448638 445634 440632 434634 426640 404666 397672
      395677 394682 391691 387700 379715 374722 373726 374731
      376733 379733 386731 391732 396736 398738 400745 398759
      400764 401770 398781 396786 392789 384794 382797 377798
      374796 370798 368801 365804 358809 355816 349823 343829
      336835 332838 327840 324835 321832 317829 320824 325815
      338802 343796 342792 339788 328798 317811 311814 302814
      292813 287804 284800 279798 274796 268796 258795 253795
      250788 247785 243783 241773 238769 233769 226773 223777
      224783 226791 229800 230806 229810 229814 231817 233822
      232825 234836 235840 239844 246849 259846 263848 267851
      271853 277853 281851 283848 286845 289846 293853 294863
      293866 291867 285868 281866 275867 273870 273876 275880
      278882 284888 286891 286895
 0.01 286895 284905 286915 291922 293926 293933 295938 295945
      299954 303956 307956 310958 319954 325949 330941 339923
      342915 344906 344882 352867 354862 355858 360849 364846
      367849 367854 368867 368874 367880 366886 368892 367897
      368901 370906 372911 384925 391931 397935 403940 409942
      413945 414948 415962 412973 412984 412980 409978 405976
      402978 395979 390980 385983 380993 378998 380001 387001
      389001 390004 390010 387019 382028 375035 371036 367036
      361043 356049 352057 354066 352071 350072 347072 335073
      325076 325087 322090 316091 310090 306089 297085 290081
      283076 276071 269074 266076 266081 271086 279088 288093
      294099 297108 303118 306121 310120 319115 327110 332106
      336108 337112 340122 346129 356131 359129 364129 368127
      369121 363116 359115 356112 353108 352103 344086 364071
      366069 368070 370074 372083 376092 375098 375105 374112
      373118 371121 372125 376129 378128 380126 383123 386121
      389120 392121 395119 397114 400111 399106 402105 403107
      405111 409113 411108 412100 411094 409087 405084 404085
      403082 406077 410075 414074 417071 418068 420064 424061
      432057 436051 437044 439048 441053 444055 448056 451051
      459050 464051 467053 472055 473061 474068 476072 478077
      482081 484088 485097 487103 489108 491115 489121 488124
      484123 478122 473123 470125 468127 468133 469137 472141
      473144 472147 467146 463144 459145 453151 449157 449163
      450168 452173 455174 456167 458162 461161 464163 467167
      474177 477183 476191 476198 477203 475208 472212 467217
      464220 459218 454218 451220 452225 456227 459230 462234
      462239 463242 465242 474243 481247 482241 480237 483233
      484228 486223 491223 501247 505247 508243 506233 502222
      498214 490207 492201 493196 496199 498204 500207 502204
      504200 509199 511202 515203 531204
 0.01 474232 474229 473227 472228 471229 470228 468230 469232
      471232 473232 474232
 0.01 442093 442091 438090 436092 434094 433092 429092 431095
      432097 434100 436100 438095 440096 442093
 0.01 439038 439036 438033 436033 435035 435036 434037 434040
      435040 436042 438040 439038
 0.01 437014 435007 430004 425001 420997 417994 415991 414989
      412991 412001 412010 416015 418017 421017 423019 427020
      432018 437014
 0.01 372104 371100 370095 371093 368089 364086 361084 357087
      355091 355098 356102 359107 362108 368108 370106 372104
 0.01 362838 362836 360834 359836 358837 358839 357840 355841
      354843 353844 352845 351846 352847 354848 356847 357846
      357845 359843 360841 361840 362838
 0.01 336056 336054 334053 332053 331053 330053 329055 327055
      326057 326059 328060 330060 332058 334058 336056 336056
 0.01 231991 237996 242996 247996 255993 262988 268982 272976
      278970 277966 274965 266961 255961 244960 235963 232964
 0.25 505158 505154 504150 498144 494139 486136 484136 483139
      484143 486151 485157 483161 484166 486169 492174 495177
      498178 502172 504167 505161 505158
 0.25 502029 502020 500011 497003 493995 489991 483988 479984
      475979 469965 465959 459954 452954 445952 440949 437947
      436945 430931 419921 410914 405910 401905 397900 394893
      393882 393871 396857 398849 400843 403836 405829 412813
      411808 410803 406799 401801 397805 386813 383819 380828
      378835 377842 376850 375860 375869 374877 373888 374899
      376906 379911 383917 387922 396931 401935 408939 414941
      421942 425947 425956 426966 427975 428980 431983 437986
      444987 448993 451000 453007 454013 456022 457027 460031
      466035 472038 477042 480044 483042 487038 491038 497039
      501034 502029
 0.25 468696 468693 466692 461692 456695 453699 447707 442718
      442725 442733 441745 443750 447749 450743 452738 456727
      460717 464707 468696
 0.25 421735 420726 420721 418719 413721 411727 409733 408740
      407747 408752 410754 412756 416754 419750 420742 421735
 0.25 408058 408052 406047 401046 399047 395048 390050 389054
      388060 387065 390068 393068 396066 400063 403061 407059
      408058
 0.25 405037 406035 406033 406030 406028 405026 405025 405023
      404022 402022 400023 399025 398028 397030 397032 398034
      398035 400037 401039 401041 403041 403039 405038 405037
 0.25 384076 384072 383069 382066 380064 377063 374062 371061
      370063 370064 372066 374068 374072 374075 376079 377081
      379080 382078 384076
 0.25 360069 361067 361065 361064 359063 358065 358067 358068
      360069 360069
 0.25 358830 358828 356826 354827 353828 353829 351830 351831
      349833 348835 348838 349840 350840 351839 352839 353838
      354837 355835 357832 358830
 0.25 336088 336086 335085 335084 334083 332083 330083 331086
      332087 332088 333089 335089 336088
 0.25 326896 325889 323884 317877 312875 309877 303885 298894
      296899 295906 296913 299918 306922 313923 317920 321917
      322913 325900 326896
 0.25 314849 312848 311848 311847 310848 311849 311850 313850
      314849
 0.25 278821 276815 273810 269806 266802 263801 259802 254804
      250808 252814 255818 261820 266823 271824 277824 278821
 0.25 244974 244972 243971 241970 239971 238971 238973 239975
      241975 242975 244974
 0.50 378074 378073 378075 378074 496028 495019 493010 492001
      489997 477989 473984 470978 467970 464966 460964 456966
      455968 454974 453981 454991 456000 458008 461015 461018
      464021 468020 471021 476024 484026 489028 494030 496028
 0.50 456715 456712 454710 452709 451710 449711 449712 448714
      448717 449719 450720 452720 454719 455717 456715
 0.50 440973 441966 439961 437957 435952 433947 431942 429942
      428949 429957 430961 430968 431973 435977 439976 440973
 0.50 418935 419931 417928 414924 406917 398909 395905 393899
      389886 387881 387872 390859 393847 396835 395830 392828
      391826 388828 387831 387836 388841 386847 380870 379886
      378894 380901 381908 385913 391921 398929 406936 414939
      418935
 0.50 407813 407810 405809 403811 402813 400816 399818 397821
      396823 396827 396830 397832 398832 400830 401827 402824
      404820 405817 406815 407813
 0.50 319905 320900 319896 317890 314888 311890 308894 305899
      301903 300910 303914 309916 313914 316909 319905
 0.50 273820 272817 270814 268813 266812 264810 261809 258808
      256811 259815 261816 262817 266819 268820 270820 273820
 1.00 483002 482997 480996 475993 471989 467984 464981 462982
      461986 460993 460001 464006 468009 472010 475009 478005
      481004 483002
 1.50 477997 474995 472994 469992 467989 463991 463994 462998
      463001 466004 468005 472005 473003 475999 477997
 2.00 471001 470999 468998 467997 465997 465999 467001 468002
      470002 471001
$$




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