Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 020939
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
438 AM EST FRI DEC 02 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 02/1200 UTC THRU DEC 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


...WESTERN GULF COAST...

AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST REGION TODAY
WILL LEAD TO A MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO
LATER TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE MERIDIONAL AND EVENTUAL CUTOFF
NATURE OF THIS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE SLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THUS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DAY 1 FORECAST (12Z FRI-12Z SAT)...INCREASING UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL COUPLE WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER DIVERGENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD
(TONIGHT) ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST...THOUGH GIVEN THE BREADTH
OF THE UPPER JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S....THE MODELS ARE NOT WELL
CORRELATED IN TERMS OF THE PINPOINTING THE AREA THAT WILL BENEFIT
THE MOST FROM THE COMBINED FAVORABLE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
DYNAMICS. THIS IS PART OF THE REASON WHY WE CONTINUE TO SEE A
DISPARITY IN MODEL QPFS...INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION CAM
GUIDANCE...THOUGH SUSPECT THE OTHER PERHAPS MORE SIGNIFICANT CAUSE
IS DUE TO THE VARYING DISTRIBUTION/GRADIENT OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY PER THE MODELS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. THE NAM AND GFS ARE FARTHER INLAND WITH MODEST
DEEP-LAYER CAPES (AOA 1000 J/KG)...AND AS SUCH IS WETTER WITH THE
QPF NW FROM THE COAST INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. THE ECMWF
MEANWHILE IS HEAVIER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TX...MATCHING ITS MORE E-W
ORIENTED INSTABILITY AXIS. IN ANY EVENT...A ROBUST WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL ULTIMATELY ENSUE...TAPPING THE SUBTROPICAL PW PLUME AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WHILE ALSO DRAWING IN COPIOUS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY NSSL-WRF) IN FACT DEPICT MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
BANDS IN A SE-NW FASHION...INDICATIVE OF STRENGTHENING
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE TRANSITION FROM UPRIGHT CONVECTION (HIGHER
CAPES AND NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES) ALONG THE COAST TO
POTENTIALLY MORE SLANTWISE CONVECTION FARTHER INLAND. TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD (12Z SAT)...PW ANOMALIES WILL HAVE INCREASED TO
2.5-3.0 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL TX...WHILE 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES CLIMB BETWEEN +3
TO +4 OVER THE SAME AREAS AS THE 850 MB SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO 40+ KTS.

IF NOT FOR THE INSTABILITY...THE STRENGTHENING...DEEPENING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT INLAND TRANSPORT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE TIGHT CAPE GRADIENT
ALONG-JUST OFFSHORE THE GULF COAST...WILL CONTINUE TO BE MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE >1.00 INCH 24 HOUR
AMOUNTS...AS EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF INTERCEPT. TO THAT END...WPC
FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY (PREVIOUS FORECAST) WITH A
COMBINATION OF THE 00Z HREF MEAN AND IN-HOUSE HIGH-RES ENSEMBLE
MEAN. THE RESULT WAS A SLIGHT INLAND EXTENSION OF THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS (0.50-1.00+ INCH) ACROSS SOUTH TX...THOUGH NOT TO THE
EXTENT OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WHILE MAINTAINING AN AXIS
OF HIGHEST TOTALS (1.5-2.0+ INCHES) ALONG THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TX
COAST.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

PRECIPITATION WILL PICK UP AGAIN IN EARNEST TODAY AS ROBUST ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES. ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD
LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT...THE GFS CONTINUES ITS TRICK OF DISPLACING
THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE AND UPWIND OF THE TERRAIN FORCING.
THIS COMMONLY OCCURS IN THE GFS AND DOES NOT LOOK PHYSICALLY
SOUND...AND MAY BE IMPACTING OUR ENSEMBLE TOOLS. SO AGAIN WE
LEANED TOWARD THE SREF MEAN FOR QPF...WHILE ALSO INCORPORATING THE
ECMWF AND RGEM...WITH SOME SPOTTY TOTALS EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN THE
OLYMPIC RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DOWNSTREAM...TROUGHING WILL DIG THROUGH THE WESTERN
U.S...EVENTUALLY CLOSING A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT LOW LATITUDES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONTAL SURGE AND HEIGHT FALLS
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION EXCEPT AT VERY HIGH ELEVATIONS (NORTHERN
BITTERROOTS ESPECIALLY)...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE AROUND
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEST.


...GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST...

RELATIVELY COOL AND HUMID LOW LEVEL AIR...SUPPORTING AN UPPER
TROUGH IN THIS REGION...WILL PROMOTE A REGIME OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ALSO IN THE WEST-FACING
UPSLOPE AREAS IN PA/NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE LACK OF STRONG/DEEP
CAA WILL INHIBIT ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT-MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE 24 HOUR AREAL-AVERAGE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TOTALS EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.25-0.50" OVER THE
FAVORED SNOWBELTS AS PER A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HI-RES MODELS
GENERALLY OFFER BETTER DETAIL AND ACCURATE PLACEMENT IN THESE
REGIMES...SO WE LEANED TOWARD THE WRF-ARW AND SOME DOWNSCALED
VERSIONS OF OUR IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE TOOL. FOR MORE INFORMATION
REGARDING THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
QPFHSD.



DAYS 2 AND 3...

...TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

A PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS EAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE
WEST WILL CLOSE OFF AND PARTIALLY CUTOFF FROM THE FLOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF
THIS CLOSED LOW. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASED AND
PROLONGED ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...ALONG WITH INCREASED DEEP MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE...WITH
INTEGRATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. TO GO
ALONG WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALSO EXPECTING THE AREA TO REMAIN
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET HELPING ENHANCE LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THE EVENT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP
INCREASE AND MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WITH CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WHERE IT WILL INTERACT WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY 900-800 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE OVERALL FLOW
DOES NOT NECESSARILY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SLOW MOVING OR
BACKBUILDING CONVECTION...WITH CORFIDI VECTORS FORECAST TO REMAIN
GREATER THAN 10KTS THROUGH THE EVENT. THUS MOST OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MOVING OFF IN A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AT A DECENT
CLIP. HOWEVER THE STATIONARY LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
PROMOTE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRAINING OF THIS CONVECTION. THUS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE A LONG DURATION EVENT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER CONVECTION ENHANCING RAINFALL RATES.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON DAY 2 (12Z SAT-12Z
SUN)...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL SHOWING A VERY SIMILAR AXIS OF
3-6" OF RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX INTO NORTHWEST LA.
GEFS AND ECMWF PROBABILITIES ALSO HIT THIS SAME REGION WITH DECENT
PROBABILITIES OF 3"+ OVER THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. LIKELY WILL HAVE A
PRETTY TIGHT NORTHERN GRADIENT TO THE HEAVIER TOTALS...WITH
AMOUNTS FALLING OFF RAPIDLY ONCE YOU GET NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT
INTO MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR. INTRODUCED A MODERATE RISK FOR OUR
DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TX INTO
NORTHWEST LA. THE GOOD GLOBAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT FOR
3-6" ACROSS THIS AREA IS USUALLY A GOOD SIGNAL FOR A HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT. THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ANOMALOUS
PWATS/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALSO
SUPPORTS A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE
PROLONGED RAINFALL SATURATING SOILS...MAKING IT EASIER FOR THE
EMBEDDED HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RATES TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD ISSUES
ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY THE INITIAL MOISTURE SURGE PUSHES EAST INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. ALSO THE CLOSED LOW WILL
FINALLY APPROACH TEXAS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF RESULTING IN ANOTHER UPTICK
IN CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. MODEL SPREAD DOES INCREASE BY THIS PERIOD AND IS RELATED
TO HOW QUICKLY THE CLOSED LOW PROGRESSES EAST THOUGH TEXAS. MOST
OF THE 0Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT SLOWER AND MORE IN LINE WITH
WHAT THE GFS HAD BEEN SHOWING. ALTHOUGH STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF
ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MORE MODEL
FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE NEXT DAY. WPC DAY 3 (12Z SUN-12Z MON) QPF
USED A COMBINATION OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET TO FIND A MIDDLE GROUND
CONSENSUS. LIKELY TO HAVE A WIDE SWATH OF 1"+ FROM EAST TX INTO
THE SOUTHEAST. LIKELY TO HAVE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (2-3")
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION
SHOULD GENERALLY BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE LACK OF A LOW LEVEL
FOCUSING MECHANISM SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL
COVER THE THREAT WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED A SLIGHT RISK EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS MARGINAL IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASED IN AN AXIS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN ON DAY 3 (12Z SUN-12Z MON) IS BACK
ACROSS EAST TX INTO LA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE APPROACH OF THE
CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW AND RESULTANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/COVERAGE BY LATER SUNDAY.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA ON
DAY 3 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 2-3" OF
RAIN (LOCALLY HIGHER). GIVEN THIS REGION WILL LIKELY SEE A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL BEFORE THIS SATURATING SOILS...MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK ON DAY 3 AS WELL FOR
PORTIONS OF EAST TX AND/OR WESTERN LA. BUT GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON THE AXIS OF CONVECTIVE FOCUS ON DAY 3 AND EXACTLY WHERE
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL WILL BE GREATEST...WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE AND
JUST GO WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR NOW.

...NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE WESTWARD FACING SLOPES OF THE COASTAL
RANGES/CASCADES/BITTERROOTS WILL RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND AS STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND
BROADLY CYCLONIC MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOP. WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT A MULTI MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR QPF ACROSS THIS REGION.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

HURLEY/CHENARD

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 528250 530236 534225 540204 538191 537185 534179 529171
      523160 518155 511149 503145 496139 489134 481127 477124
      473122 469122 467120 471115 471108 475106 475104 472103
      470100 469093 467094 465097 466101 464103 460103 457103
      455100 454094 456088 459082 460076 461069 459064 459059
      456057 453057 452062 447071 443070 440070 439074 444077
      447082 448084 447087 443089 445092 448093 449096 444099
      439096 435099 432096 428092 430101 431104 429106 424105
      419107 422107 444116 443124 439133 436136 435143 435149
      436153 442160 445164 446167 446171 443177 438180 431183
      427186 426189 436192 444191 449193 452191 459183 461180
      464174 465172 468170 472174 476178 479182 478191 476198
      473200 467206 459202 454210 446213 441213 436214 431216
      427219 424222 425226 428229 434230 437230 440233 437236
      434237 429239 426243 423247 422252 419257 421262 432266
      435264 439264 443272 455286 463294 466296 471297 476297
      481296 489293 498291 504292 510296
 0.01 539124 539118 538114 534106 530098 528094 524091 521091
      519092 512096 508095 508089 503082 498076 492071 488070
      485072 485078 486083 495097 501114 505122 511127 519129
      524129 527128 535129 539124
 0.01 493687 492682 488682 484685 482689 479692 477686 473686
      468689 466691 464690 461688 454682 452678 449679 450684
      452691 453698 448704 446708 442710 435717 432720 434724
      430726 425728 422729 420732 421733 441732 445732 444735
      435738 431741 428741 422741 418743 416747 415753 417759
      416765 412776 405783 392792 387794 384798 381800 379804
      378808 381809 388803 398798 403795 406799 408805 408810
      410815 413819 419819 422809 424798 426797 427804 428814
      430819 436828 448831 449836 448839 446841 442848 438857
      434861 430859 424849 419852 417856 415866 417870 422870
      432869 441866 445865 450863 453860 459861 464874 465880
      465888 465898 467900 469897 473887 475883 475880 473879
      471880 470873 467866 467858 466852 463845 459837 454829
      452825 451817 451790 449786 448782 446782 444781 439784
      436782 435779 438774 443765 451749 453738 454732 456729
      461727 466727 470729 473728 476722 478717 480711 483707
      486702 488697 493687
 0.01 418102 419098 417097 414092 410094 406098 406102 404106
      402108 398108 395112 390114 386118 381121 377125 374130
      384127 388125 392121 397117 401116 414113 418102
 0.01 420053 418050 416050 415052 414054 414055 416055 418053
      420053 420053
 0.01 224060 224066 227070 233079 237082 241087 245090 252093
      258095 267096 274098 281101 286104 291109 296113 297117
      295119 295122 299123 303122 308120 315118 324113 325103
      338100 342094 339091 345074 342072 342069 344068 356065
      360069 361072 360077 356080 352086 355089 360089 362088
      365086 368088 370091 369097 365101 364105 366108 365113
      362114 360115 356115 353115 352117 349122 348126 350128
      352127 362121 366124 365121 365117 368108 373103 378099
      383093 385095 386093 387089 389088 386083 385080 388078
      390082 396080 399081 399078 402076 403074 402071 404068
      408073 412073 412068 411066 405063 411061 411056 409053
      406051 402050 394049 389047 375048 373047 369047 365048
      359050 357044 355038 354035 356032 361027 363023 364018
      365014 365010 364005 362996 360990 361983 361977 362974
      362967 361960 357947 352936 341915 335910 331906 326902
      320900 303900 299901 297903 291906 282912 277914 272914
      269910 264906 260903 253901 249902 246903 244905 242909
      242913 242922 243931 244938 246956 261994 243993 240993
      238995 238002 238006 240008 246011 252015 255017 259017
      267018 271020 281026 285029 287036 288042 285047 284052
      282053 277057 270059 262058 236048 232048 229049 226051
      225056
 0.01 404123 402123 400122 400125 402123 404123 404123
 0.01 282786 277785 273788 270789 271783 270777 267772 265767
      266761 262759 257759 253762 250767 241785 237792 235798
      234804 232813 232820 232826 230831 231837 240833 244831
      247827 251817 257822 257814 260811 263808 263804 263802
      266801 272800 276797 279793 280788 282786
 0.25 524260 520252 514241 503220 499211 496207 490204 481204
      471208 464213 460215 457219 453232 444236 442240 442245
      444251 446256 453263 462271 470277 474280 479282 487278
      491276 497277 514286
 0.25 529210 531203 531195 528185 524176 522173 520171 517171
      514172 509170 504170 500173 502184 505188 509191 516198
      521205 527212 529210
 0.25 496174 496171 494168 491166 490165 486162 485161 482160
      480162 478162 478165 480168 482170 484171 487174 489175
      492177 494176 496174
 0.25 466705 465704 464705 463705 464706 466705 466705
 0.25 464715 464713 463712 461712 460711 459711 458711 456712
      455713 453715 453718 453720 454721 455720 457721 459720
      461720 462718 463716 464715
 0.25 451726 452723 450722 449722 447724 446727 444727 442727
      441728 442728 444728 446727 448728 449728 451726 451726
 0.25 448744 447741 444744 442746 439746 436744 433749 434756
      433761 437761 440757 440752 445749 446746 448744
 0.25 442815 443812 442810 442809 441808 440806 438807 437808
      437811 438813 439815 440816 442816 442815
 0.25 422794 422792 421789 420792 420794 421795 422794
 0.25 420799 421797 420795 419797 419799 420800 420799
 0.25 376071 376070 376069 375066 373065 372064 371064 370063
      369064 371064 372066 373068 373071 373073 373075 374078
      375075 376073 376072 376071
 0.25 349004 348995 344989 341984 339981 336977 332973 321934
      317928 312922 304920 298920 292920 284921 275923 266926
      260926 255928 253931 252936 253948 254952 256957 258961
      263963 265965 267969 270978 273987 273991 273997 273000
      275004 282009 290013 297019 303034 309041 313043 318045
      321046 324050 327059 330061 334058 336053 337047 337042
      334039 332035 332029 334023 336021 340019 345015 348010
      349004
 0.25 328074 328072 327072 326070 324072 322074 321076 320078
      320080 321080 322080 323080 325079 327077 327076 328074
 0.25 277088 274079 275075 272071 269067 264064 255060 244057
      238056 233057 231061 232067 239073 248077 259081 262084
      268086 272087 275089 277088
 0.50 522262 517254 513245 508235 502228 498218 495215 489211
      486209 481208 473211 466216 459222 459225 461228 464231
      456238 453245 454252 459257 465262 474270 477272 482273
      489268 493269 496271 501274 505274 511278 516281
 0.50 502259 499247 496244 492238 489228 488225 486223 479221
      474221 469223 466226 465228 464231 473229 477230 481235
      483237 486236 489239 494248 500257 502259
 0.50 438758 437756 435757 435758 435759 437759 438758
 0.50 340006 342002 340999 334997 319992 313982 318969 321955
      321950 320948 313945 308942 305936 301931 295927 290926
      284929 274935 272937 268939 264934 260934 257936 257940
      259943 265943 268949 272954 274957 275962 273968 272973
      273977 276983 278991 280997 284001 289004 296007 302009
      310010 318011 325010 335009 340006
 0.50 268079 268075 266072 262068 258065 253062 248060 241059
      235061 236065 240068 246070 251073 256075 261078 264080
      268079
 1.00 519271 519266 518262 516260 515258 512256 510254 508254
      508257 509262 509264 510268 511271 514274 517273 519271
 1.00 507248 507244 505242 502239 501237 500234 498232 496229
      494225 493230 494233 495236 497239 499241 500243 503246
      504247 507248
 1.00 495265 497263 496260 495257 493254 492251 491249 489246
      488244 485243 484248 486251 487254 489257 491260 492262
      495265 495265
 1.00 480244 481241 480240 480239 479236 477234 476233 474233
      473234 472235 472236 471239 472240 472241 473242 474243
      476244 478244 480244 480244
 1.00 307966 298960 299953 300945 298940 295935 291931 287932
      286935 284949 283957 281963 276974 280977 283978 283983
      284986 287986 291985 293987 297989 302985 303980 303975
      305971 307966
 1.00 280947 279947 277946 277947 277948 279949 280947
 1.50 296949 296941 294936 292934 288935 287941 287949 285956
      283962 281968 280970 283971 286967 290963 293958 295952
      296949
 2.00 294945 294940 292937 289939 288945 288949 287955 285960
      284964 286964 290960 291956 293952 294947 294945

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 483338 486337 488334 493326 495320 497316 502305 507298
      509295 512290 519271 522260 526249 532228 532223 532216
      535212 538207 541196 541192 540186 537177 532170 529161
      527158 523155 519148 513142 510139 506137 499138 494137
      491134 485128 481126 477125 469122 466121 465117 468115
      471111 471105 469102 466102 460104 448094 441096 433099
      427104 424106 424110 425112 429121 430123 434124 440122
      448124 455120 456120 454115 457111 460114 461118 461125
      459128 455130 452134 450138 438147 436152 436156 440164
      442167 443172 445176 444184 443186 447187 451188 455186
      460183 463179 464173 467171 471172 480176 484177 487180
      488186 488192 484197 478200 471203 465207 460207 457208
      451212 443214 437217 434218 429219 425220 423222 425231
      423244 423267 421279 425288 437298 440310 445322
 0.01 542990 542984 540980 536973 533968 530965 525962 521962
      518960 510960 506962 500962 492962 474962 471963 467963
      459961 454961 453965 454969 457972 469981 473983 474988
      472997 471011 471018 473020 479037 480049 482060 483064
      481067 479072 480075 480080 482084 484088 488091 494092
      498090 500086 503085 507083 510076 513065 515053 518049
      521047 528045 533040 535036 533031 532027 535022 537013
      534996 537993 540992 542990
 0.01 491884 492875 491868 484863 479862 474862 468855 465853
      462854 458842 455843 451842 449841 445843 442848 438847
      435845 434847 438859 440863 443865 447864 452865 456864
      460862 463867 464872 467878 466883 468897 470902 472902
      476891 478895 480892 491884
 0.01 483872 482870 481869 479870 479872 479874 481874 483873
      483872
 0.01 464708 463698 459699 455701 452705 448708 442708 439712
      437718 436723 431725 428728 427731 436734 438739 435743
      430745 424744 420743 418747 420759 418762 417767 420770
      419773 417771 414772 415775 409777 406780 401788 407792
      412802 413808 412812 417820 419819 421815 423810 425809
      427811 430813 432817 434821 438824 446828 449831 452828
      453825 453821 449818 447813 444809 441805 437805 433802
      427798 427793 428786 431783 433779 435768 436763 439759
      442756 448754 450751 453746 460726 464708
 0.01 472930 472920 468920 465920 461918 457915 447909 445906
      440903 431897 426896 422893 412888 404880 390864 387858
      385851 381839 379833 376827 374822 370817 367814 362813
      353811 342816 338816 336818 333822 319838 310845 307848
      303852 288868 278873 274873 272875 272881 272888 271894
      269899 270906 270913 270917 268928 265941 262954 262981
      261990 262995 259006 256017 255021 254024 253031 247039
      240047 237051 233054 233062 234064 234069 232068 234073
      239076 242080 244085 245090 247096 249102 249105 252106
      262111 271116 282122 288125 289125 285122 280117 272111
      268107 266104 267099 267095 269094 275096 287098 296103
      302107 306110 313107 323102 338088 345079 351069 357060
      362048 362039 364034 368021 370014 371010 373008 376008
      377006 380003 387991 390987 394984 409970 420964 424961
      428957 430953 434949 440947 447947 453947 458945 467940
      470933 472930
 0.01 447075 446072 445071 443071 442072 443073 444075 446076
      447075
 0.01 425700 425698 424696 423694 422693 421692 420691 418690
      416690 415690 413691 413692 413694 413696 414697 415698
      416699 417700 418702 418703 420703 422703 423702 425701
      425700
 0.01 431862 429859 429857 429855 429854 427855 425855 424855
      424858 424860 424862 426862 428864 429864 431862 431862
 0.01 395793 395791 394791 393793 391794 389794 388794 388795
      389797 390797 391797 393796 395794 395793
 0.25 528196 528187 528180 524170 520166 516163 510161 506161
      501161 495159 487152 478147 483146 488146 490143 489138
      486134 481131 476131 472133 470140 461142 458146 457151
      458154 461158 466162 476164 486169 501186 506194 510198
      514201 519202 523201 527198 528196
 0.25 516267 517263 517257 516251 513237 504213 501209 497204
      492201 489202 484203 479205 471209 462213 454218 452222
      454225 456230 452234 450239 450247 452253 454259 457264
      462267 467267 471264 474260 478255 482255 490263 494267
      497271 501276 505275 516267
 0.25 368925 366906 363897 361889 359881 358868 354852 351844
      346840 341839 337840 332844 327850 324856 321864 319871
      313886 311890 308888 305881 303878 301876 297876 295879
      292886 288891 282925 279933 277939 276950 275958 276976
      276982 276987 272993 269012 271019 274026 278042 280051
      279058 276060 271059 268057 263058 248057 243057 242059
      240063 240066 245071 252075 258078 266080 277081 284080
      292083 306088 310088 313085 318080 323075 327070 327065
      326061 326056 328053 333048 339044 340034 344026 346019
      349013 353005 355998 357989 359986 360980 359961 360951
      363943 368925
 0.50 516182 517180 516178 515177 513179 514181 516182 516182
 0.50 496226 497222 497218 494212 491209 486206 478208 469212
      461216 457219 459222 462226 465228 465232 463237 466239
      469236 467232 469226 472223 477222 482223 488224 494226
      496226
 0.50 484242 483241 483240 482237 481235 480234 479233 478232
      477233 476234 475235 474237 474239 475242 476245 478246
      479246 480246 481246 483245 483244 484242
 0.50 482161 482159 480158 479160 480160 482161 482161
 0.50 485138 484136 482135 481135 479135 478137 479138 480139
      482139 484139 485138
 0.50 472158 472156 470154 469153 467153 466154 467156 467157
      468158 470159 472158 472158
 0.50 356930 354898 354883 352874 350870 346866 344860 341859
      338860 333862 329862 327863 324868 321879 320885 320889
      318892 313901 308913 302920 294927 287935 281946 279951
      279956 281983 283989 284996 280009 279015 281021 286031
      287037 289043 293052 295058 293064 292071 295076 301078
      308078 314077 318076 322070 323065 321059 316056 313052
      314048 318048 321049 324049 327046 329043 328039 332026
      336015 336010 337003 340990 344978 349966 352955 354942
      356930
 0.50 302893 302891 302888 300886 299889 298890 298891 297893
      297895 297897 298897 299897 300897 301895 302893 302893
 0.50 269075 268070 267066 264063 259062 253061 248061 244062
      245066 248068 252071 256073 259075 263076 268077 269075
 1.00 486215 485214 484212 482211 481210 479210 477210 476211
      475212 474214 474216 475217 476218 478218 480218 481218
      483218 485217 485215 486215
 1.00 471218 471217 470216 468216 467217 466219 467221 469220
      471218 471218
 1.00 348901 347891 347888 345885 338883 334887 326898 320909
      314922 311927 307933 302936 295938 290941 287947 284953
      282960 283970 284976 290979 292981 293985 295991 294998
      295002 297004 300004 301002 304996 308992 317982 324971
      332962 339951 345937 346931 347921 348901
 1.50 481216 481214 480212 479212 478213 477215 478216 480216
      481216
 1.50 343917 343901 342895 338895 334895 331900 326907 321916
      315925 310934 307937 303940 294944 290947 288952 284962
      284968 288972 298972 300976 301981 304982 307982 311979
      317972 323964 329956 339936 341926 343917
 2.00 338928 339921 339915 337907 335904 330908 324915 316929
      310936 305941 296945 290950 289956 288960 286964 288966
      294967 299967 304969 306973 306977 309975 315969 321962
      325956 334941 338928
 3.00 332924 329921 325924 319930 312938 305945 301948 297949
      295955 296961 307960 310960 315958 318954 321952 325948
      328943 330939 331932 332924
 4.00 323941 324937 322937 317939 312942 308945 304949 299953
      301956 305957 308956 313954 317950 321945 323941
 5.00 314947 314945 313945 312946 310946 309947 308948 307949
      307950 306952 307954 308953 310953 311952 312951 313949
      314948 314947

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 528191 528182 528172 526161 524150 522145 520138 516129
      513123 511120 503111 500107 499100 497084 495072 494043
      494025 496005 497999 497992 494990 490990 483000 480004
      478009 472031 470038 469046 464058 460068 457071 453075
      443069 441072 443077 448084 448087 446088 442089 436089
      433089 431087 425081 421069 424063 423058 419059 412058
      406056 404058 401066 399071 399076 407082 408089 406093
      404100 400104 396106 392112 390117 390121 391123 398130
      410134 412140 409146 402152 402158 403164 407173 408178
      410179 415184 413192 411197 410204 408208 411211 410215
      403214 404219 408224 405228 400229 397231 396238 397241
      396246 396250 397252 404259 419271 422273 425278 430287
      437297 440300 445303 463317 474322 482324 487322 490319
      494316 497310 502301 505296 507290 511284 512276 515270
      516262 517250 521239 521235 519236 514237 511233 510226
      521210 525201 526193 528191
 0.01 534968 528952 525944 524940 524935 525928 526920 526899
      526886 526880 527877 527870 522865 518860 518850 514830
      509824 504819 496809 481791 477785 474780 470773 465768
      458756 454750 450746 446739 440735 433737 430738 427740
      424741 421740 416737 409730 404727 396728 378732 347737
      344739 342743 338750 332761 327770 320781 313792 309804
      304818 301825 296829 275846 265853 262856 260862 253892
      252900 250906 246919 242935 238948 237955 240959 243962
      245968 247985 243990 238993 238996 243002 251011 252014
      252018 251027 249035 249043 250057 256065 266072 276078
      283082 290082 306083 313079 318076 325065 332058 337044
      337034 339025 340021 338019 332015 330013 330009 334003
      340991 346976 348969 348962 347958 347953 354952 367950
      393945 408942 416940 424940 443940 447940 450942 454947
      457952 459957 466967 491972 500973 502975 506976 518981
      522981 523978 527975 533971 534968
 0.25 501275 502269 500266 496262 493259 492255 489250 486243
      481241 475237 472236 473233 476232 478229 479221 483214
      482211 478209 472208 459206 454209 449210 445209 439211
      429214 424219 421224 419229 417231 413234 412237 412240
      416245 430250 438252 445254 451257 455261 461266 467268
      478268 483268 486274 490279 494280 501275
 0.25 493150 494144 494140 492135 489127 486123 481112 479104
      478097 475090 474084 473081 472084 470090 468098 467107
      463121 461126 459127 454128 450132 447138 443143 439141
      435140 434143 432150 433158 435162 443171 446177 444183
      443188 445191 448196 460195 464192 467187 474177 478172
      482168 487158 489153 490152 493150
 0.25 457113 457101 455097 452094 443095 434095 431093 427094
      429099 427104 424108 423115 431118 439118 444120 450120
      457115 457113
 0.25 368842 368835 367831 364822 360817 359815 358810 356801
      356792 354781 350774 342771 339770 336771 329783 323798
      321806 319815 317823 314830 305840 298843 292848 287853
      285860 285867 286873 289881 287888 287898 284906 280912
      276918 272925 262954 257971 257976 258979 261984 264992
      265998 264002 260006 261013 264020 270025 275029 276033
      273035 270038 269042 273046 278051 285053 295054 303053
      307051 309048 313043 319036 322029 323020 322014 327994
      325985 323979 317979 318975 322969 328956 335941 342928
      347921 350914 354899 357891 359880 362865 364858 366853
      368842
 0.25 312981 310981 308981 310981 312981 312981
 0.50 475217 474213 470213 463213 449214 442214 437216 425222
      428229 430233 428236 422240 422243 425245 438242 455247
      462248 464241 464233 466228 468226 473222 475217
 0.50 485138 484134 483133 479131 476129 475128 472128 470130
      470135 470138 473140 477140 480141 482140 485138
 0.50 479162 480157 479154 474151 466142 460140 455142 453149
      450151 447149 442147 438145 437146 435150 436155 439159
      443163 448166 449174 451180 450185 456189 461187 466182
      471170 474165 479162
 0.50 447111 447107 446104 445101 443100 439099 437100 434102
      433104 433109 434112 436113 440114 441115 443115 446114
      447111
 0.50 355859 355842 352830 351821 350814 348807 346803 343796
      340793 336789 332792 327801 324812 320824 316833 310842
      306846 301848 294849 291852 288856 288862 291868 294872
      297877 296882 298897 297904 296908 290918 288922 285925
      281926 279929 276932 271940 266950 263962 263966 264973
      270980 273984 279986 286986 292985 300979 306973 314964
      319958 331940 337930 342921 346910 349899 352885 354873
      355859
 0.50 322001 323995 320993 317990 313990 297991 291993 289995
      284001 279006 276009 273011 271013 271017 278020 290030
      291035 288037 286040 286044 289046 293048 297049 302049
      304047 305042 304038 308037 311036 314034 315022 314018
      314013 319007 322001
 0.50 281043 281041 280039 278040 277040 276040 277041 278042
      278043 280043 281043
 1.00 466157 466154 465152 464151 462151 461153 462154 462156
      463157 465157 466157
 1.00 452220 450219 447218 444217 442217 438219 436220 434222
      437225 441225 444226 446225 448224 450221 452220
 1.00 345842 345828 340822 336821 332824 326828 322831 319834
      315841 309859 303853 299852 296853 293856 294860 300865
      305867 306872 304881 302891 302901 288934 280938 275943
      271952 270962 270967 272972 274974 279975 287971 296970
      304966 310961 316954 320947 325940 330933 334924 337915
      339904 340893 339879 341871 343855 345842
 1.00 310028 309026 308025 307025 306026 306028 308029 310028
      310028
 1.00 309011 309010 307010 306011 305011 304013 305015 307013
      309011 309011
 1.50 340847 340842 338840 336838 333839 330842 329845 328852
      322865 319868 318864 319860 321854 322847 319845 318849
      313863 311870 311875 314876 317874 319874 326876 330874
      334868 336862 338854 340847
 1.50 333900 333892 331891 329896 328901 326912 323917 321921
      313917 301917 298921 298927 297935 296938 286940 279945
      275949 274954 275964 276969 282969 290965 300963 307958
      313951 318943 322934 325930 327926 330916 332904 333900
 1.50 311888 311886 311884 309883 307884 305886 304888 304890
      304891 303893 303895 304897 305899 306899 308899 309899
      309898 310896 311894 311892 311890 311889 311888
 2.00 314943 314936 312930 308922 305920 302921 300926 300934
      298939 295942 290943 281948 278952 278960 280964 285964
      294960 300958 303956 310949 314943

$$




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