000
FXUS04 KWBC 151004
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
603 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 15/1200 UTC THRU MAY 18/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

UPDATE

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE.

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF THAT HAS MOVED OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE NAM CONEST AGAIN IS
SHOWING THE HEAVIEST SOLUTION WITH A LARGE QPF MAX--AREAL AVERAGE
3-5"--OVER NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TX.  THE REMAINDER OF THE
GUIDANCE IS CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER---DEPICTING A BROAD AREA OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN TX--INTO EASTERN
OK---WESTERN AR WITH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF .25- 1"+.  THERE ARE A
LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES ON THE SHORTER TIME SCALES WITH QPF IN
THE AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES THAT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
THE UPPER TROF AXIS.  WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS---IT IS
HIGHER FOR POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS ACROSS
THESE AREAS.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE DETAILS OF THE HI RES
ARW AND THE ECMWF.

EASTERN GREAT LAKES---NY STATE INTO NEW ENGLAND

NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND DAY 1 WILL PUSH THE ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST.  ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES---THROUGH NY STATE AND INTO MOST OF NEW ENGLAND.  THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NY INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ACROSS FAR
EASTERN ONTARIO AND INTO QB WHERE LARGE SCALE UVVS WILL BE
STRONGEST---WITH MAX .25-.50" AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS.  LIGHTER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR AREAS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

OH VALLEY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY

THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST DAY 1 WILL BE MUCH SLOWER MOVING AS IT PRESSES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND TOWARD THE OH VALLEY REGION AS IT
BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  ABOVE
AVERAGE PW VALUES IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FROM THE MID MS VALLEY
INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.  SLOW MOVEMENT OR TRAINING OF CELLS IN
A WEST TO EAST DIRECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING---SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON QPF DETAILS HAS KEPT
AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS IN THE .10-.25"+ RANGE.

CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY AGAIN FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN A BROADLY UPPER
DIFFLUENT PATTERN AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON QPF DETAILS ACROSS
THESE AREAS HAS LEAD TO THE DEPICTION OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CA

SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD OFF
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CA
DAY 1.  WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNT ON THE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SIDE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CA.


DAYS 2 AND 3...

***SOUTHEAST, OHIO VALLEY, AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION***

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO CONVERGING WITH THIS BOUNDARY, STRETCHED
FROM MISSOURI TO NORTH CAROLINA, WILL HELP GENERATE A BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.  JET STREAM DYNAMICS AND MID-LEVEL
FORCING ARE UNIMPRESSIVE, AND THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP QPF AMOUNTS IN
CHECK, EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHERE LOCAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY PERSISTS.


***NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST***

SEVERAL AREAS OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY OVER THIS
REGION OF THE COUNTRY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSES OVER A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE JET STREAM IS IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY AS
WELL, AND RIGHT ENTRANCE DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL
LIFT.  PW VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.25 INCHES WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH OVER MUCH OF THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO MINNESOTA, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.


***PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES***

MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE THE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  A STRONG JET STREAM OF
ABOUT 120KTS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY AT 500MB ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FAVORED TERRAIN OF WASHINGTON, OREGON, AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
PW VALUES UNDER 0.75 INCHES AND A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS FROM BECOMING HEAVY.  FOR MOST OF THE
QPF DOMAIN, THE ECMWF WAS WIDELY USED, ALONG WITH SOME OF THE GFS
AND BIASED CORRECTED QPF MODEL.

ORAVEC/HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 16/12Z
 0.01 502676 495657 487643 483635 479629 470617 463613 459611
      454611 444611 440611 435613 432614 427618 416627 397644
      391649 388655 384660 382665 376675 374680 372685 370691
      370696 369702 372707 375706 378707 383704 386702 389703
      394705 410706 415706 420708 414720 412725 407729 397735
      392743 390747 388749 387754 385759 380762 378768 378773
      382787 383795 382800 379806 375811 374816 373823 377840
      378853 377865 372876 364893 362898 360901 357902 353910
      348916 336920 323924 314928 303931 297934 294936 288939
      284942 277950 275954 274958 272963 268967 263975 264979
      267982 274987 283988 290985 300984 304986 309986 309989
      306993 306997 306001 309005 312008 318008 332006 342003
      348001 352997 353995 354991 353982 368967 373959 377960
      380966 382971 385975 393980 397982 400987 403996 400010
      396012 393016 390021 388026 389031 390037 388042 386044
      384043 380040 375036 370035 366033 357037 357040 355043
      355048 357053 357063 364069 370078 372083 376085 385089
      387091 391088 395087 400084 404081 408082 409084 411086
      410090 408095 405101 403104 400105 397108 392109 385116
      388120 392118 400118 407119 410119 414122 422127 426127
      430122 434118 437117 440118 443119 446121 448120 452118
      455114 459110 459105 455100 451096 445095 441092 440089
      439084 440081 441079 447081 449074 452070 457068 460064
      465060 468055 471042 470034 468026 461017 448018 444017
      441016 437012 434008 431004 431000 428997 427992 425989
      424985 423978 420972 420964 417931 416917 416904 417848
      417842 418836 417832 418828 420822 422817 420809 418803
      418798 420792 421787 424783 431782 448792 456799 462804
      466807 470814 473818 476826 479830 481837 488846 493850
      497856 503864 510880 516893 521896 526899 532897 537894
      545869 544858 542848 541841 538834 534816 531811 529801
      526793 523785 521781 518773 514766 512758 509745 508726
      509712 508702 506690 502679 502676
 0.01 518273 517268 517262 514251 509242 506233 495221 492225
      492228 494236 496240 493240 491237 482232 480227 476227
      473229 471227 473224 479218 482218 485214 485208 489207
      490202 487200 483200 476206 469208 462209 447213 434219
      424235 416232 414229 414223 423214 432196 438189 441186
      443181 448175 454169 456167 461166 466167 469171 476176
      480182 485184 489184 496180 502174 503168 505165 506158
      506154 501145 497137 494134 492135 488139 484141 473140
      466143 462144 459145 451145 448142 445141 436140 436144
      437149 437156 435160 432166 429168 423172 421174 418181
      416189 414192 413196 408206 405209 404213 402227 399230
      396233 394236 394242 398249 402251 410252 416254 421254
      427251 434248 442247 447248 449251 454257 463262 472266
      477268 481271 487275 508288 515281 518273
 0.01 447928 445920 442917 441913 436915 433919 434923 432928
      432936 434952 436960 438963 440975 443979 443983 447983
      447978 446970 445961 445957 447954 446941 445933 447928
 0.25 529827 527815 524809 518796 512783 508775 505771 503766
      501761 500750 499745 497735 490723 487718 482714 475704
      474698 475694 479697 483695 485690 486674 479661 474654
      471650 462642 455637 449634 444633 435633 426639 421643
      415648 410658 407665 408669 411671 416672 420674 423678
      428684 433688 436689 439690 441694 447710 451726 453733
      452740 448746 448753 451758 455761 459764 461770 463776
      465781 472792 479801 486811 490816 495820 499823 503827
      515854 518855 523853 527850 528845 529834 529827
 0.25 489247 488242 486241 483243 481241 479237 476233 473236
      469240 471246 476251 479253 482254 487251 489247
 0.25 463221 463220 460219 459219 459224 460225 460224 463222
      463221
 0.25 404806 401799 397795 393796 390799 387804 387833 387848
      387862 389893 390909 391918 390927 394952 395960 397960
      399959 402947 403931 402912 403897 403881 402865 402850
      402822 404806
 0.25 368947 365936 361927 357924 352924 341927 330930 322935
      316935 311936 304941 291953 282966 282972 286974 294975
      313977 322979 328982 335983 340981 343979 347975 350971
      353969 360963 366957 368947
 0.50 502788 499779 497776 494772 492769 489767 485765 482764
      476765 473768 473772 476779 478783 483789 485793 488796
      491799 498800 501793 502788
 0.50 361952 360945 358942 353936 348934 343935 334938 329944
      325950 318954 314954 312951 307949 299951 293956 290962
      290967 292969 297968 301969 306967 309969 310971 314973
      318974 325975 329975 332973 341971 348967 355963 361952
 1.00 348954 349951 348947 347944 344944 341945 338946 336948
      335950 333953 333954 333957 334960 335960 337961 340961
      343961 346960 347958 348955 348954

24HR QP VT 17/12Z
 0.01 483677 480666 477660 474658 472656 468656 461657 455659
      454664 452668 449671 448675 447683 448692 448701 445709
      437717 435719 434722 431726 432730 433735 436736 442738
      449735 458728 473716 481700 483693 484688 483682 483677
 0.01 534180 535171 535166 534163 533155 531152 527144 522135
      520129 520124 522121 526109 525105 519102 517094 517086
      512074 510068 510057 511049 512040 511030 510023 509010
      508999 506989 501969 495955 491942 487936 483934 479930
      473928 470926 465923 459918 451910 448905 446898 443893
      441885 438880 432875 428872 423869 416865 412864 410862
      409857 405839 404831 404825 403814 400798 400789 399783
      399780 396770 392755 391750 388744 384741 379740 373743
      369748 364758 360767 357786 362801 364810 363817 361820
      357822 351825 348830 347834 349838 352836 355832 360829
      364829 368833 369843 373870 372882 370892 367896 363899
      359897 356892 353877 351872 344874 341877 338882 337887
      337892 338899 339904 337906 332909 329914 325922 320928
      317934 316938 315943 315947 315953 316959 318963 325971
      328974 331975 344973 352968 355965 360963 365956 373947
      378945 382941 390940 394944 395949 395954 392960 387968
      384975 381982 374985 372989 372998 380003 382016 385026
      392033 397037 399038 396041 391042 387044 384048 380050
      377051 375053 376056 378059 376063 374067 375075 378079
      383080 387077 390075 393072 398069 403069 412068 414062
      412056 410052 404052 401052 399050 401046 404044 407043
      413044 416045 424046 428048 431051 433058 439062 445064
      449063 457060 462062 466068 470077 467081 458080 450073
      444069 442069 440069 441076 443083 442086 439087 432087
      428085 424084 423088 424090 426097 424103 420107 417110
      414109 412106 412103 410100 406098 405110 406114 411118
      414118 418115 421117 421121 420124 419132 417138 413142
      406144 393142 389142 386145 385153 385160 386165 387171
      389175 388179 383182 377184 371182 368181 365182 364185
      364189 366193 370196 376202 378204 377209 373216 370220
      368226 369232 377240 381248 390254 398254 404253 414253
      424251 443247 450247 454245 460246 466245 471245 475244
      478241 480237 480230 471229 467233 465232 464230 466226
      469223 479221 484221 489224 494235 496240 498244 501246
      504249 508247 510243 510237 508231 502216 503207 505200
      506194 508192 511191 513194 516197 519201 522201 526198
      529194 532187 534180
 0.01 483204 482187 484178 478169 471167 465174 463181 460186
      453193 448204 456210 461213 464214 466213 470210 473209
      477207 480208 483204
 0.25 474690 472686 469686 467690 467691 466696 466697 465701
      468702 471699 473696 473695 474691 474690
 0.25 521163 520158 520157 517154 516152 515151 512149 510147
      509145 506143 503142 500144 499145 497149 496149 497150
      498154 499158 499159 502162 505162 508163 511164 514165
      517164 519167 521163
 0.25 499009 498999 495991 491987 486984 476979 466973 463972
      460973 457976 455980 456985 458989 462996 464001 464013
      462018 463025 464029 467034 470033 473027 478021 485020
      493022 496021 497017 499009
 0.25 494149 494144 493140 492139 489136 486135 485134 483133
      480133 478133 477134 476137 477138 480139 483141 485143
      486143 488146 490148 491150 494149
 0.25 467149 464144 464136 465128 466123 465119 464115 464106
      462100 457097 453096 449097 446101 444106 443110 446115
      447120 448125 448129 446137 443141 441145 441151 443156
      446159 451159 455157 462152 467149
 0.25 449953 446945 443941 435933 432928 431920 431910 430905
      429900 427899 425900 422905 420912 420919 420932 420937
      419942 416947 415951 412956 408969 400989 396001 395008
      396010 399010 404009 411009 418009 422010 426009 429004
      431998 432988 432976 432965 432957 440963 445962 447957
      449953
 0.25 438234 440229 441222 440218 436213 435209 433204 431194
      431183 430177 428173 423171 419172 416176 414180 405198
      400200 389200 386200 385205 390213 394218 396223 397227
      395230 395235 396238 401241 406242 415245 423245 430244
      434240 437235 438234
 0.25 379758 378756 378755 375756 372757 372759 371762 371763
      371767 371770 372774 374777 376780 377781 380779 380778
      381773 381769 380766 380762 380760 379758
 0.25 396825 394806 390800 387799 383801 381806 380813 379819
      380828 381836 381843 384861 387873 389879 392888 396891
      401890 402884 402879 400874 399859 397851 396841 397827
      396825
 0.25 359913 353911 348911 342914 339915 335919 330926 327935
      327941 328948 331950 336951 342945 347937 353929 358922
      359913
 0.50 486002 487997 486996 483993 482993 480992 477991 474995
      475999 477001 480001 483002 486002 486002
 0.50 423974 423966 421961 415963 413967 411972 410976 409983
      408988 409992 410995 413997 416999 419998 421994 422986
      423978 423974
 0.50 388840 388836 388832 386832 385834 384838 385841 385845
      387848 387852 388855 389859 389855 389851 388848 387844
      388841 388840


24HR QP VT 18/12Z
 0.01 482658 479650 476644 471643 469646 467649 466655 465658
      462659 456662 451667 452674 455680 455686 453690 451693
      448697 445701 443705 441710 439712 435719 435727 435733
      438740 441742 446744 450743 455739 456735 459723 463713
      464709 466706 468701 477693 481693 482699 483707 483708
      489706 490698 490692 485677 482669 481663 482658
 0.01 513247 510233 510223 509211 511200 508193 500186 495184
      493181 491173 489165 482155 480157 474157 472154 471149
      469142 469137 472135 475138 482139 486140 488144 491148
      492144 492138 486133 478132 475128 476123 479112 480105
      482094 483091 483085 487079 489074 491067 494058 495053
      498051 502047 506045 508042 511040 517030 521016 522006
      522001 521994 522989 523982 522977 517961 511946 509940
      508934 506924 504915 501907 498901 494897 485888 472884
      465887 463892 461898 456900 454899 451895 448891 442879
      435874 427868 421867 418866 410860 403847 400831 394799
      392787 380766 371741 363733 357731 350732 346739 346745
      347753 356780 358786 358791 358801 355808 354814 350824
      348830 350834 354836 360835 364833 368833 371836 371843
      373848 376857 377860 375862 371862 367858 365856 362856
      359858 356863 353862 351861 351857 347849 344844 339840
      332838 326840 321844 317851 315856 314862 311867 305868
      300870 297873 291877 285879 276885 274889 275893 279898
      282900 293904 305907 315911 324916 332927 339933 345932
      350930 353927 358924 361922 368919 376913 378916 377918
      373925 371932 369939 370946 373949 378949 382944 387943
      392938 391929 390921 388917 386912 387909 389909 396909
      401906 403904 405901 408903 413916 417937 419943 422948
      425954 429957 431959 433960 431963 427966 421969 415972
      406974 400982 397986 392992 388997 379999 377005 379011
      385017 388021 394021 404024 411024 417020 425014 430011
      434008 437006 440005 444005 448006 452009 453022 455036
      452041 450045 446048 439056 429071 427076 421083 418087
      414090 410091 406095 403102 403106 400108 395111 386115
      381118 379119 378122 378126 380128 385127 393123 401123
      405126 406129 405132 400137 398141 398147 402150 406156
      411162 412173 415180 418187 421190 426191 429188 430180
      429165 428159 431157 435159 438163 441169 441173 441179
      440184 438188 437193 439198 446201 448200 451197 453194
      455191 461189 468189 472193 475196 476199 476206 473209
      462210 452212 449213 443214 437213 433216 430220 433224
      433230 431236 426237 420235 416239 417242 418244 421246
      429249 435252 441250 447250 452249 460250 463250 471252
      479255 486265 494269 498269 501267 503261 513247
 0.01 408218 408213 406209 400206 395202 388198 384193 378192
      378196 380200 385204 391209 395214 398219 402221 405221
      408218
 0.01 415072 416068 416064 415064 413060 412060 410059 407057
      404057 403061 402064 401068 398070 397072 397076 398078
      401078 404077 405076 407074 410072 412073 415072 415072
 0.01 329985 328978 326975 319972 314973 310974 302979 295985
      290992 289996 290002 291006 294010 300008 302005 307999
      310996 315994 318992 323990 327988 329985
 0.01 276801 275799 271796 262795 252799 247802 244805 241812
      241822 248825 250825 254821 257813 260807 270804 274804
      276801
 0.25 501233 501228 499223 499222 496218 493218 491220 492225
      495229 496231 497233 500236 501233
 0.25 507999 505990 502984 496980 495969 494956 492946 489934
      485926 482919 478914 475914 472917 470923 471933 473939
      475946 475952 474957 471960 466965 459966 454965 450966
      447969 446974 441977 434978 426981 425984 427988 432988
      436987 441986 444987 450989 458988 462992 466998 467003
      468008 467020 467031 468037 470043 473047 479046 483041
      490026 497013 502007 506999 507999
 0.25 471102 470091 466085 462079 459076 456072 451071 446071
      442072 439079 435084 429100 425107 421115 419122 419130
      424132 426131 431128 437124 442122 446121 452121 458117
      463110 467106 471102
 0.25 458177 457174 457172 454170 451169 450171 451175 451176
      453178 456178 458177
 0.25 450927 450923 449919 446916 442914 439915 437918 438926
      435931 432932 430937 430940 434944 440945 445941 448937
      450932 450927
 0.25 404873 403866 398856 395849 394838 393830 391827 387826
      385829 385833 387845 387852 390862 393869 396876 399879
      403880 404873
 0.25 419998 421994 418991 415993 413994 412995 410996 407996
      404997 401999 400000 400004 402006 403008 405009 408009
      411007 413005 416002 419999 419998
 0.25 383796 379788 376780 375773 372765 367757 362752 360752
      359754 358762 360773 363783 366793 367797 370802 376806
      380804 382800 383796
 0.25 371899 372895 372891 371888 370884 368883 367885 366888
      366889 365893 364895 364897 363901 363904 363905 367906
      369904 370903 371900 371899
 0.25 341865 338859 336856 332854 329855 325860 322868 321875
      320882 320887 321892 327895 333897 337897 341893 343888
      342879 341868 341865
 0.50 487975 488961 486948 483947 482951 480959 475967 469971
      460974 462979 467984 476985 482985 486979 487975
 0.50 484019 485015 484011 484010 483011 481012 479016 478017
      477020 477024 478026 481024 484020 484019
 0.50 398867 397864 396860 395858 395861 396864 397868 398867
 0.50 374789 373785 372782 371778 370775 369772 367770 365772
      365774 366777 366781 367784 368788 369791 371794 372794
      373793 374789 374789
 0.50 337884 337880 336877 335874 335871 334867 333864 331862
      328863 326865 325867 325870 325872 325874 325877 325881
      326884 327887 328889 329890 332891 334890 336888 337887
      337884

$$