Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 221833
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
132 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 23/0000 UTC THRU DEC 24/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...

AN EVOLVING FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS ON TUES. THIS LARGE
SCALE FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER QPF FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES TO GULF COAST STATES TO NEW
ENGLAND. WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
THROUGHOUT WITH SOME OF THE 12Z HI-RES MODEL SUITE FOR QPF AMOUNTS.

A SHORT WAVE ARRIVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP CLOSE OFF
A MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW ALOFT AND SURFACE
REFLECTION... DEVELOPING NEAR THE KC METRO AREA... WILL SHEAR-OFF
TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON TUES TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD SPUR A POCKET OF WARM ADVECTION AND
OVERRUNNING SHIELD OF HEAVIER QPF... ALONG A GENERAL WEST TO EAST
AXIS. THIS WILL OCCUR OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE AND NORTH OF
THE LIFTING OCCLUDED/WARM FRONTAL ZONE... MAINLY FROM IA THROUGH
WI INTO MI. WHILE THE BULK OF THE VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
FOCUSES WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE GULF COAST... ENOUGH MOISTURE
CONTENT SHOULD WRAP AROUND THE CIRCULATION FOR MDT QPF AMOUNTS OF
.50 TO .60 OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH A COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOW.

MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH OR NEAR THE GULF COAST REGION/STATES... A
STREAM OF SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS NEAR THE NRN ROCKIES/INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST WILL DIG INTO THE SRN PLAINS/BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH AND BEGIN TO PROGRESS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL
DRIVE THE POLAR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS... WHILE
INDUCING A SURFACE WAVE NEAR LA/SERN TX COAST BY THE END OF THE
FCST PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INTERACT BY A VERY
WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WARM/STATIONARY FRONT BANKED ALONG THE EAST
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS IS WHERE THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A ZONE OF
ACTIVE LOW LEVEL JET/850MB WINDS AND A TREMENDOUS POOLING OF LL
MOISTURE... PWS REACHING TO AOA 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. THUS EXPECT AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SERN LA TO THE
FL PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF 2-3
INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES. THIS ACTIVITY HERE APPEARS TO
OCCUR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD ON TUES FROM
12Z/23 - 00Z/24. THEN ALONG THE PROGRESSING COLD FRONT... SOME OF
THIS DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT WILL INTERACT WITH THE THERMAL ZONE FOR
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE RAINS FROM THE TN VALLEY BACK SOUTH AND WEST
TO SRN MS/SERN LA. THE FFG IN THIS REGION IS NOT EXTREMELY LOW AND
WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING IN THE LAST 6-12 HRS OF
THE FCST PERIOD... WPC WILL HOLD OFF ANY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA
FOR THE TIME BEING.

FINALLY... THE BROAD SWRLY UPPER DIFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN/PERHAPS SOME
FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST. HOWEVER... ENOUGH DYNAMICS WITHIN
THE UNIFORM SWRLY FLOW COULD INDUCE A WAVE ALONG A COASTAL FRONT
AND LIFT UP THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BUT THIS REMAINS HIGHLY
QUESTIONABLE WITH RATHER LARGE MODEL SPREAD FOR A DAY 1 FCST. WPC
WENT WITH MORE OF A COMPROMISE ON THE GUIDANCE IN THIS REGION FOR
POSSIBLE .50 TO .75 INCH QPF AMOUNTS.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...

A STREAM OF SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS AND CLOSED MID TO UPPER LOW WILL
REACH BRITISH COLUMBIA ON TUES AND BEGIN TO KNOCK DOWN THE NW
PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE WRN UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW
A DEEP CONTINUOUS PLUME OF PAC MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO REACH PARTS
OF THE PAC NW ON TUES. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY FROM COASTAL WA
INTO THE CASCADES WITH POSSIBLE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT NEAR THE
OLYMPICS AND NRN WA CASCADES. WPC FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST SCENARIO AND QPF.

MUSHER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 24/00Z
 0.01 521269 523262 523253 522244 518238 510225 504214 503208
      507204 511201 515206 523220 526225 530229 533225 536218
      538211 538204 538201 537190 535182 532176 528172 524167
      519164 514160 509162 506165 503165 497169 495171 492170
      488166 484163 482168 486174 490176 491181 493189 492195
      490198 485199 480202 471207 466210 464212 459211 454214
      449212 445217 442216 441212 443208 436206 435206 437208
      437211 435213 437219 427223 424229 426230 428228 431227
      435230 432232 430234 431237 426241 425244 427245 432241
      434241 437243 438246 441248 444248 447247 449245 450250
      451257 451261 453264 455266 458266 464266 473273 481277
      484282 490289 494293 500297 505296 511290 516282
 0.01 499967 495961 482963 475947 471938 469929 468925 469923
      473922 477920 478917 481909 484900 485887 485874 488864
      490853 492846 492834 492825 492811 492802 477765 469747
      466737 462728 459723 457717 458712 458707 458702 462694
      464692 465687 464685 461685 458684 455685 450681 439670
      433667 425666 422665 419666 415672 411678 408686 404694
      403699 400700 396700 392702 389705 388709 385716 381717
      377717 368718 364723 358729 352735 347741 343748 333758
      323771 318776 312781 308784 303785 296786 290786 286786
      283788 280792 280796 285800 292802 296802 296806 291811
      284818 278822 274828 266843 265845 267847 270849 275850
      273858 271865 262892 260900 256908 254919 253927 252931
      252935 255945 257953 259957 263960 266961 265965 266973
      268980 273983 278984 283979 288974 294971 297971 301973
      302977 301982 301989 301995 300000 301010 300017 300022
      297023 302030 301034 295036 293040 298046 303051 306056
      312060 314058 315055 315049 317047 322048 325050 323054
      325057 329058 332060 335062 339067 345067 348065 354065
      357065 358067 360069 363067 368067 369072 372075 372084
      373089 375090 377092 380096 386097 392096 398097 399095
      393092 390091 387087 384083 384080 389080 393081 395085
      397085 398083 400080 403082 405079 409077 414076 417074
      423068 427068 429071 431073 435075 440075 443077 449082
      454083 458078 458073 457069 458065 460063 463061 467061
      472061 474059 480054 482050 483042 487035 489033 487032
      483029 481028 480025 481019 482012 480008 480003 485996
      489989 492982 494977 496974 499967
 0.01 477109 476105 473102 469100 466100 462103 457101 454093
      440085 437081 434078 427077 423079 424082 430087 435090
      437091 438094 435098 432099 430103 429105 426105 422106
      419109 417112 415115 412114 412111 414106 410098 408095
      405099 404105 401108 396108 393109 386113 381119 377121
      375125 374130 379131 386132 387127 391124 393116 397113
      400115 403117 405119 408118 413119 416120 420119 424115
      425112 428109 444106 447105 450109 448116 446121 446124
      447126 452119 455114 458111 461111 464113 467116 473117
      477109
 0.01 421050 420045 415043 407035 404035 403040 403042 400042
      395040 392036 381015 378015 376018 375026 372028 370023
      370016 367010 360005 362996 364991 367987 371985 378977
      385968 387964 392955 390950 391945 391938 392936 389934
      385930 381927 377927 375925 370927 364928 361932 357935
      354940 351945 350952 345965 344967 343971 343978 342990
      344995 345003 349008 353011 357015 361018 365021 365027
      369031 376032 380035 384041 385046 387049 390047 394048
      397050 397053 394053 390052 387053 376056 371058 373063
      378064 380066 381063 379060 379059 382059 388060 394058
      399056 404056 410055 414051 417052 420052 421050
 0.01 380750 380746 379744 374738 369742 364745 359748 354751
      355753 358754 364755 365757 368759 372761 375762 378760
      379753 380750
 0.01 372907 371905 369905 367906 366906 364907 364908 362908
      361910 362911 364911 366911 367911 369911 371909 372907
 0.01 362912 360910 359910 357912 359913 360913 362912
 0.01 354916 353914 351914 350917 351918 353917 354916
 0.25 529199 528195 524192 522188 519184 516181 511178 510182
      510186 512189 516193 519194 523193 525198 529200 529199
 0.25 518271 520264 520258 519252 516246 512239 507230 501225
      496215 488211 485209 481209 477210 474212 471215 469220
      470225 468231 463239 461245 461251 463253 466254 470256
      477261 480264 484268 490274 496281 498285 503288 508288
      510285 515278 518271
 0.25 493238 493235 491233 491232 490231 488229 487227 486226
      484225 482225 480225 480226 478228 480230 480231 481233
      481234 482236 484236 486236 487237 489238 490239 492238
      493238
 0.25 479865 479856 478850 475843 473837 469832 465835 452834
      449833 448831 445824 440822 436823 431826 427826 425824
      422811 423805 425799 425792 421792 415794 411798 407812
      403816 398819 390828 377843 373844 367847 363850 361850
      361846 361839 355837 356828 359823 362819 364813 366807
      367804 366800 356795 353790 349787 345786 342786 339788
      337793 338798 329805 326805 320810 312815 308818 305819
      303816 299815 293818 289823 285825 281828 278832 278836
      280836 284834 289830 293831 290844 288856 288871 287879
      285885 281898 274920 272926 271932 276945 279950 282954
      288957 291959 293957 301950 307943 310939 312933 314927
      316922 324914 331904 334900 340899 343899 349895 367882
      382868 390860 395858 400860 395864 393869 389874 389879
      393880 399881 404882 408884 406888 404892 403901 403908
      404913 408913 409916 408922 410931 410936 408942 407949
      410965 411971 412975 415977 419978 422978 424976 426971
      429966 435957 440951 443945 445939 447934 455924 460913
      463909 467902 468895 471890 474885 477879 479865
 0.25 460003 461001 461998 460996 458998 457998 456998 455000
      454003 454005 455006 456006 458006 460005 460003
 0.25 442708 439705 435699 430687 426684 421685 416689 413694
      408705 405711 403718 400722 398728 398744 399762 397767
      394773 396784 404776 411768 418759 422755 426754 430754
      430760 433766 436765 440760 442755 441749 443747 443743
      442735 438728 437723 442708
 0.25 448046 449035 446029 443023 445014 446004 443997 442992
      440990 434986 429983 425983 423987 422992 424996 427004
      426010 424018 423023 424028 426030 429030 434026 438026
      440029 440032 440040 441045 443047 448048 448046
 0.25 420877 419874 419872 419870 417867 415868 415872 414875
      412874 411877 410880 408882 411882 414882 416881 419879
      420877
 0.25 350932 350931 348932 347934 348934 350932 350932
 0.25 343949 343943 342942 339941 334942 330945 327952 321959
      317966 314975 312981 313988 315996 314015 314020 316024
      320033 322036 326038 333035 337034 338028 337017 337004
      335993 333984 333979 335973 336963 341954 343949
 0.25 332783 332781 330777 328776 326777 324780 323782 322786
      322789 322793 323796 324794 326792 328789 329787 331785
      332783
 0.50 516270 518262 518256 516250 513245 507238 504234 500231
      497228 495222 492218 490220 491224 496232 500242 502246
      503253 502255 499255 496250 490242 486239 482239 477232
      473233 470236 468240 468246 475253 480255 484258 488262
      490265 501283 514274 516270
 0.50 487218 487216 487215 485213 484212 482212 480212 479213
      477215 477217 478218 479220 481221 483221 485220 487218
      487218
 0.50 459866 460861 459857 458854 456855 453857 452858 449860
      447862 445864 445866 447870 448872 451874 454873 456871
      458869 459866
 0.50 452908 452906 452903 452901 452898 452896 452894 451893
      450894 450896 450897 449899 449901 449903 449906 449908
      450910 452908 452908
 0.50 434713 434709 432707 429703 426697 422695 417698 414701
      410711 406722 405728 405736 405742 408745 412743 414742
      418742 420741 422735 426724 432716 434713
 0.50 445041 445038 445037 443036 442038 443041 445041 445041
 0.50 431843 430842 429840 428840 426841 425842 423843 423844
      422846 421846 421848 422850 423850 425848 427848 428845
      429845 430844 431843
 0.50 432930 431927 428927 424926 423925 420926 419928 419933
      420935 421938 423940 426941 428938 429935 431933 432930
 0.50 431916 431914 432911 432909 432907 431906 430907 429908
      429909 429912 429914 429916 429919 429920 430919 431916
      431916
 0.50 369853 368851 364853 360856 356857 354853 354848 352845
      351839 353836 353830 354824 356819 358815 357811 354812
      348816 343822 342829 338831 334828 332822 330819 325820
      306825 299830 296833 294839 292847 292860 293873 290883
      287891 284902 278921 276930 277937 280940 286947 288951
      291952 300936 305930 311922 315914 321907 327902 333895
      339889 346883 358870 365862 368858 369853
 0.50 335839 333835 331832 330834 326838 323842 319847 318853
      320860 324862 328859 330852 332846 334841 335839
 0.50 332969 332962 332958 330958 325965 324968 325973 323979
      321984 322992 326999 329002 330999 329990 326984 326979
      328977 332971 332969
 1.00 513266 513263 514261 515258 513256 513255 512253 511252
      511251 509250 508251 507253 508256 508257 508259 509262
      510265 510266 512267 513266
 1.00 508245 507244 506242 505242 504242 505244 505245 506247
      508245
 1.00 496262 496260 495259 495257 494259 493261 494263 495264
      496262
 1.00 480244 480243 479241 478240 477238 477237 476236 474236
      473237 472239 472241 473243 473244 474246 476247 477247
      479246 479245 480244
 1.00 353866 350860 347851 345851 343853 339860 332872 327878
      325879 320880 312882 310880 309876 311866 312858 315841
      315836 312833 302834 299836 297839 296847 296855 296864
      296873 294880 291887 288895 287903 285912 282929 284931
      287931 294928 299922 303916 309903 312897 316892 320891
      323892 327892 331890 335883 339878 347872 353866
 1.00 350833 351831 350829 349828 348829 347830 347831 346832
      345833 344836 346836 348834 350834 350833
 1.50 311848 310843 308839 306839 303841 300848 299857 298865
      298870 299876 299882 295889 292887 291890 291895 289904
      288912 290920 292921 293917 297910 298901 305888 306885
      305880 303877 304871 306863 308856 311848
 2.00 307848 305847 303848 302850 302851 301853 301855 301857
      300859 300861 301863 302865 303863 304861 304859 305857
      305854 306852 307850 307848 307848
 2.00 302888 302884 300886 296891 295894 293897 291902 290908
      289912 292916 294912 295906 296901 298897 300893 302889
      302888

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.