Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 262024
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
423 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 27/0000 UTC THRU JUN 30/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

...OHIO VALLEY / LOWER GREAT LAKES / MID ATLANTIC...

WIDESPREAD SWATH OF GENEROUS 2-3 INCH RAINS AND EMBEDDED HIGHER
TOTALS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF A DEVELOPING CYCLONE
AFFECTING CENTRAL INDIANA TO NORTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL...IN COORDINATION WITH
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER...WAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD OVER IN/OH WITH
THE 18Z UPDATE.

A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. STEEP HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE MID MS VLY AND OH/TN VLYS DURING THE DAY ONE
PERIOD...NUDGING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SIGNAL REMAINS IN PLACE FOR A SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT...WITH THE ROBUST COOL-SEASON DYNAMICS IN PLAY
ALONG WITH THE SUMMERTIME DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK INSABILITY.
IN TERMS OF THE FORCING...STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL
COUPLE WITH A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION CIRCULATION TRAVERSING THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. A POSSIBLE INHIBITOR FOR EXCESSIVE
SHORT TERM RAINFALL RATES (WITHIN 6 HOURS) WILL BE THE RELATIVE
LACK OF INSTABILITY. DEEP LIFT...HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY COMPENSATE
TO MAINTAIN LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS SUCH AS WAS SEEN OVER ILLINOIS EARLY FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS MUCAPES OF 500-1000+ J/KG AS FAR NORTH AS
THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING. GREATER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
FARTHER SOUTH...BUT WITH STRONGLY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A
SWEEPING SURFACE COLD FRONT...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR WITH RELATIVELYI LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING...AS EVIDENCED BY CONSECUTIVE CYCLES IN
WHICH THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE ONLY SMALL SCALE
STREAKES OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

WPC USED A 60/40 PERCENT BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH OUR
IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE...BUT ALSO CONSULTED THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF
WHEN DEPICTING THE AXIS OF RAINFALL OVER IN/OH/MI. NO
DETERMINISTIC MODEL WAS IDEAL OR STEADY FROM RUN TO RUN...BUT THE
GFS DID APPEAR TOO FAR NORTH AND WAS MORE JUMPY THAN SOME MODELS
FROM RUN TO RUN.


...MID ATLANTIC...

A STATIONARY AND EVENTUAL WARM FRONT...RECENTLY ENHANCED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND EASTERN NC. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION GIVEN NEUTRAL UPPER
FORCING. BY SATURDAY...FORCING MECHANISMS WILL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS (INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT)
AHEAD OF THE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE MID MS VLY WILL
STRENGTHEN THE LOW-MID LAYER WAA AND MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.
THE WAA/WARM FRONTAL DYNAMICS ALONG WITH MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND PWATS CLIMBING TO AROUND 2.00" WILL LEAD TO AN
EXPANDING...STRENGTHENING WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...YIELDING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NOVA/MD/DC/PA EARLY...AND THEN SCATTERED STRONGER CONVECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON.


...SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE PROVIDED BY
UPPER FLOW THAT IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG BUT IS HIGHLY DIFFLUENT
DOWNWIND OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS ALONG WITH EASTERLY
UPSLOPE NEAR A SURFACE FRONT DROPPING THROUGH NEW MEXICO SHOULD
YIELD A FOCUSED CONVECTIVE EVENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ANOMALOUS PW VALUES FAVOR
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE...ALL SHOW POCKETS OF HEAVIER TOTALS (1-3")
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS OF
NM...WHICH WILL BE AIDED BY THE AVAILABLE DEEP-LAYER INSTBY WITH
MUCAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY LOW FFG
OVER THIS REGION (3 HOURLY VALUES AROUND 2.00 INCHES...6 HOURLY
AROUND 2.5 INCHES)...LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES WILL BE LIKELY SHOULD
THESE AMOUNTS VERIFY.


...SOUTHERN STATES...

WPC CONTINUED TO FOLLOW MODEL CONSENSUS...AS THEY SHOULD HAVE A
HANDLE ON THE MODERATELY FORCED CONVECTION ALONG A SWEEPING COLD
FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ELSEWHERE...TYPICAL SUMMER MOISTURE/HEATING AND SUFFICIENT MID
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH AREAL
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY. ONE
OF THE MORE INTERESTING FEATURES...THE MODELS ALL SHOW A SUBTLE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...CURRENTLY ALONG THE CENTRAL-EASTERN
GULF COAST PER WV AND LONGWAVE IR SATELLITE LOOPS...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING PICKED UP BY THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND SCOOTING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST (GA/SC) COAST OVERNIGHT FRI-SAT. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE
OF THERMODYNAMICS IN PLACE (PWATS 2.00-2.25" AND MUCAPES
1500-2500+ J/KG)...EXPECT POCKETS OF HEAVY
SHOWERS/TSTMS...PARTICULARLY DURING PEAK HEATING WITH INTERACTION
OF GULF/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE HIGH-RES
MODELS IS FOR A LOCAL MAXIMA IN QPF (AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 1-2+
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS ALONG THE GULF COAST OVER THE
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AS WELL AS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST GA AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST FL.

DAYS 2/3...


...MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

DEEP MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH A SYNOPTIC
SCALE SYSTEM BRINGS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST DURING DAY 2. THE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NY STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING DAY 3...PRODUCING QPF...BUT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
DROPS DRAMATICALLY. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MAIN OUTLIER DURING DAY 2
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...AS IT IS TOO DEEP
AND FAST WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE WPC QPF ON
DAY 2 WAS BASED MAINLY ON THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z NAM. BY DAY 3...THE
12Z GFS SLOWS DOWN TO MATCH MOST OTHER 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO
THE DAY 3 QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL BLEND...LED BY THE 12Z
ECMWF.

AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM CLOSES OFF OVER OH AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY
2...THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION MODE SHIFTS FROM CONVECTIVE TO
SYNOPTIC. INSTABILITY PRESENT SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW CROSSING
THE OH VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN PA INTO WESTERN NY STATE IS FORCED
UP AND OVER A DEVELOPING OCCLUSION INTO A FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED
AXIS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST OH AND WESTERN PA THROUGH MUCH OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY STATE. A 35 TO 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST
FLOW TRANSPORTS 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR (WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) UP AND OVER THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN ELEVATED CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NY
STATE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. ALONG THIS AXIS OF
LIFT...A STRIPE OF 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES OF QPF WAS STRETCHED. AT
THE POINT...THE LINE BETWEEN FLOOD VS FLASH FLOOD BECOMES BLURRED
AS INSTABILITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNIMPORTANT IN THE
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION PROCESS. THEREFORE...NO SIGHT RISK AREA
WAS ASSIGNED TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY STATE INTO NEW
ENGLAND.

FURTHER SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE OCCLUSION OR
WARM FRONT...INSTABILITY REMAINS A VIABLE ENTITY FOR PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION. WHILE MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY BECOMES ELEVATED ACROSS
NORTHEAST OH/WESTERNMOST NY STATE/MUCH OF PA INTO WESTERN
NJ...ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES. THE BULK
OF THE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AS A 35 TO 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL INFLOW PUMPS 1.75 TO 2.00
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. FOR THIS REASON...A
SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREAS.

DURING DAY 3...THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN
NY STATE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
START TO WANE AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
MID LEVEL LOW...THE FLOW BECOMES UPSLOPE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
NY STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS...0.10 TO
0.25 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH LOCAL 0.50 INCH QPF AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.


...SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST...

A SLOW MOVING COLD CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST DURING DAY 2...BEFORE
BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY AND WASHING OUT DURING DAY 3 ALONG THE
GULF COAST. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BECOME FOCUSED BY THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FOR
THE MOST PART...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SETUP...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF
THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS.

DURING DAY 2...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWS AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY. MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS SLOW AS WELL...AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY
TRACKS NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FOCUSES MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES) AND MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THE RESULTANT CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEPOSIT AN AXIS OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES OF QPF
STRETCHING FROM FAR EAST TX ACROSS SOUTHERN LA INTO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE OF FL. LOCAL TRAINING COULD RESULT IN HIGHER
AMOUNTS...WHICH MAY IN TURN RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.
HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND HIGH THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES SUGGEST THAT ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
LIKELY.

THE FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT DURING DAY 3...AS THE RETURN FLOW
AROUND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BECOMES
THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FLOW. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
REMAINS IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN LA THROUGH NORTHERN FL...WHICH
SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. MOST MODELS HAVE A WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE BOTTOM OF THE MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
OVER NORTHERN FL...WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THERE. THE ADDITIONAL LIFT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SMALL AREA OF
0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS NORTHERN FL...WHICH IS EMBEDDED
IN AN AXIS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF A STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN LA
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FL.


...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...

A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES DURING DAY
2...BEFORE IT TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...MIDWEST AND OH
VALLEY DURING DAY 3. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH THE
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL SYSTEMS PRODUCES CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY DURING DAY 2. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE SYSTEMS...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z
ECMWF/GFS.

AS THE SHORT WAVE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES DURING DAY 2...IT PUSHES A COLD FRONT AHEAD
OF IT. AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE SYSTEMS...A 25 TO 35
KNOT LOW LEVEL FLOW TRANSPORTS 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AIR INTO MN/WI/IA AND NORTHERN MO. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE...ALONG WITH DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE DEVELOPING STORMS
SHOULD BE MAINLY OUTFLOWED DOMINATED...SO THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY LOW. AN LARGE AREA OF 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN
ACROSS WESTERN WI...CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN MO WITH
THE CONVECTION. LOCAL 0.75 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS DEVELOP.

THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY DURING DAY 3. THE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON DAY 2...BUT THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.
THIS COULD ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH STORMS. CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS IL AND IN...WHERE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED.
THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL IN...AS RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1 LOWERED THE VALUES. SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED BY DAY
3...SO WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.


...ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BEGINS TO SHRINK AND RETROGRADE. WEAK SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM
DURING DAYS 2 AND 3. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...THOUGH THERE WERE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE WEAK SHORT WAVES. IN AN ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE
DIFFERENCES...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z
ECMWF/GFS. THE 12Z NAM USED ALSO UTILIZED...AS ITS INCREASED
RESOLUTION BETTER DEPICTS THE HIGHER TERRAIN QPF MAXIMA.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BEGINS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE DURING DAY 2. WEAK SHORT
WAVES RIDING DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST STATES COULD PROVIDE LOCAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. A LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHEAST
FLOW TRANSPORTS MOISTURE (IN THE FORM OF 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES) INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...WHICH BECOMES MORE OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW WITH TIME.
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROVIDE A LARGE AREA OF MARGINAL
TO LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN
AZ/NM AND SOUTHERN CO...WHICH IS INITIALLY TIED TO THE TERRAIN.
THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF
QPF ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...AS WELL AS
SOUTH CENTRAL CO. LOCAL 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM...AND THIS MUCH QPF COULD RESULT IN LOCAL
FLOODING ISSUES. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF MID LEVEL FORCING MAKES
ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING LESS OF A THREAT.

DURING DAY 3...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
WEST...ALONG A LARGE AREA OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST STATES
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION.
UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS NM AND SOUTHERN CO...AND THE UPSLOPE
FLOW SUPPORTS LOCAL 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS THERE. DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AZ ALSO PROMOTES
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION (WHEN COMPARED TO DAY 2)...WHERE LOCAL
0.10 TO 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

A SHORT WAVE COMING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
MIDDLE OF DAY 3 CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE LAST
PORTION OF THE PERIOD. THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE BRINGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.25 INCHES (WHICH IS BETWEEN TWO
AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT...AS THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TRACKS INTO WEST CENTRAL CANADA. LOCAL
0.10 TO 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ROCKIES...BUT MOST LOCATIONS PROBABLY RECEIVE LESS THAN
0.10 INCHES.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


BURKE/HAYES

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 547966 547953 546941 544933 543930 544927 544915 544908
      542904 542893 542888 540885 537878 533872 528870 525862
      523857 523852 520846 519835 521826 529795 532785 532777
      533767 532761 531755 529748 525741 521736 519734 515734
      508737 504743 498755 495761 492769 489784 486792 486802
      487814 488821 494840 494846 493850 493859 504888 506895
      508902 507906 499914 484934 477949 477958 475965 472971
      470975 471978 472983 469986 465989 462994 465003 468007
      470009 474009 480008 485005 490001 495998 498996 500998
      506001 510002 511004 518005 525005 530003 534999 538992
      541984 543977 545969 547966
 0.01 446214 446204 440204 434207 427206 427212 424215 418218
      417224 417230 420231 422229 428226 435228 440220 444215
      446214
 0.01 453098 450094 443093 438090 433092 431090 428089 426089
      427094 429096 432098 434100 437100 439099 443099 450100
      453098
 0.01 451801 450776 448761 447748 440735 431723 426719 424717
      420718 416717 413718 408720 404719 397718 392715 387711
      382709 375706 372704 372698 372687 372682 371677 365675
      363674 360675 355680 350686 343699 342708 340716 333746
      327760 322768 318775 314781 313789 313796 312801 308803
      302806 298806 294804 284795 279792 275790 270791 261792
      254793 249808 247810 250814 257818 261822 259824 261827
      265829 269829 273830 276830 280832 286835 286851 287861
      287873 288879 287882 287891 285933 288941 290949 290966
      294975 295978 295984 295994 296002 297008 298018 296021
      295027 293035 292041 294044 300049 301053 303058 302064
      302067 300068 294066 288062 275056 267053 265051 261051
      248054 246056 246059 249065 253070 256075 265087 278098
      288106 298116 306119 314120 324111 329108 336106 341103
      346098 352093 358090 364084 374086 378086 381083 382078
      384076 394069 398064 403061 405058 396056 394051 391048
      386042 384038 381036 377032 373030 371026 367021 362012
      358005 353993 352990 353988 354984 356975 359967 361959
      365943 373928 376922 380916 391906 397900 404896 415889
      421884 425879 426870 428863 430854 434849 440843 443836
      448819 451810 451801
 0.01 409103 410101 410098 408096 406095 404097 404098 404100
      404102 404104 405107 407110 407107 408105 409103 409103
 0.01 397201 393196 390192 389188 385187 381190 376188 375185
      372184 367183 365184 366188 371191 377194 382197 387200
      394202 397201
 0.25 516947 517939 514934 510934 507935 501942 496948 491955
      489960 488967 489975 491978 499975 507974 511973 513968
      510957 515949 516947
 0.25 441796 440781 436766 434759 429749 425745 422743 415739
      402732 394728 385724 381723 376724 371727 367725 365713
      360707 356705 353707 350711 349716 345725 342736 341745
      338755 334764 330771 327773 323775 317781 317785 319786
      323788 327790 329795 327803 326809 328816 328818 327822
      321829 318832 313833 306830 297827 292829 292836 293847
      293858 294868 298880 306888 305900 306914 308937 306948
      305961 305967 306974 308983 312983 314985 316990 317996
      316006 315018 317027 320029 324029 326025 327018 325005
      326999 329996 335987 340969 343958 346949 353932 362913
      370898 374891 382885 393885 402884 410880 416871 425855
      438818 440806 441796
 0.25 376055 376048 374045 369038 366035 360034 355036 353039
      344041 342045 340050 340052 343056 350060 353060 355062
      357064 360069 362069 370066 372057 376055
 0.25 340096 340094 340093 339091 338091 337090 336091 335093
      335095 336096 338097 340096 340096
 0.25 299088 299084 297081 290078 283074 278071 271067 268066
      264065 262069 263074 266080 272083 279087 286090 295091
      299088
 0.25 277807 275805 272804 270802 268802 265801 261802 259803
      258807 260809 264810 266810 269811 273810 275809 277807
 0.50 436801 436787 433773 430763 429756 426752 420747 412743
      398737 390735 385734 380737 375743 371751 369754 365752
      362747 362741 362731 361724 358721 353720 351723 346733
      348757 341763 339766 339769 340772 341784 342789 344792
      347797 347803 344813 343819 346821 351822 351826 345832
      342835 339831 336829 331830 327832 325836 320843 315852
      314856 313861 313872 312882 315894 317896 320896 324889
      336874 341876 343880 341890 338900 335902 331905 328912
      324920 320928 316932 315937 312945 310955 308965 308972
      312973 317968 319970 321973 323978 326982 330982 333977
      337968 339960 343941 348933 352925 355914 359905 363897
      368890 374883 380878 388876 395879 401879 404877 409873
      411870 417863 420855 424848 427839 434821 436809 436801
 0.50 369052 368048 364045 362045 356046 351044 347046 347050
      352052 356055 359056 363056 367054 369052
 0.50 307854 307850 307848 305845 303844 299844 298847 298849
      297853 297857 299861 301863 304861 306859 307856 307854
 0.50 297838 298836 297834 297832 297831 296832 295834 295836
      295838 297838 297838
 0.50 285082 284080 281078 279078 276076 274075 271073 267074
      268077 270079 274081 275082 279084 283084 285082
 1.00 331852 329852 331853 331852 328855 327854 327855 327856
      328855 431809 432803 431795 429784
      424765 423760 421756 414753 408751 400751 391752 385756
      380762 376767 371769 367768 360767 357768 355773 355781
      356792 356798 358802 374806 376809 376816 380823 383830
      383838 379846 375852 371860 368867 368871 371873 377868
      383863 391861 397867 403869 407869 410866 413859 421844
      427829 430819 431809
 1.00 354744 353742 353740 353739 353740 352742 353744 354744
 1.00 338934 338928 335928 334933 332939 330942 329947 328954
      329956 330958 334955 335949 336945 337939 338934
 1.00 321949 322947 323945 323943 322941 321940 321941 320943
      320945 319947 318949 318952 319954 320952 321950 321949
 1.50 428812 429801 427791 423777 421766 418762 412758 407757
      395760 391763 387767 385770 385776 383778 380778 373777
      366777 362780 362784 366790 371793 376794 384795 386796
      387799 389808 392814 393819 392826 391835 393849 399862
      401864 404866 408864 409862 414849 420837 423832 425824
      428812
 2.00 426808 425800 424796 421787 415767 413765 408764 399767
      395777 392787 393791 395795 399802 401808 402813 403822
      401827 398830 398835 399839 401849 400855 401860 405859
      408855 413847 421830 423821 426810 426808

24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 546882 544861 544848 545840 543831 541823 538816 533810
      529805 526799 524796 522798 520804 518812 516818 513827
      512831 512838 510843 508844 505849 498861 483887 475895
      471896 469895 466890 458877 453875 445874 441874 438873
      432873 424874 419875 413878 409882 404887 399894 393906
      388918 386928 385936 386944 389950 396953 401954 410950
      415954 419959 426961 430966 436969 441971 443970 447970
      451974 455979 460982 462984 467985 475985 487980 496973
      500966 503959 503954 505951 509946 511944 514944 520946
      523944 526938 532927 537920 540912 545898 545888 546882
 0.01 533179 533173 532170 530162 527155 522151 510144 505142
      498141 495143 494146 494156 499161 501164 502168 505184
      508190 513195 516202 518206 520207 523208 525206 526196
      532179 533179
 0.01 497701 496688 493680 491672 487666 479654 471646 465641
      462639 459638 452638 444639 438640 432638 424638 417640
      409643 403647 397651 393655 388660 383665 373673 354695
      346706 337718 332723 327727 318736 300753 279771 271781
      266787 264794 256805 253812 252815 254824 256826 256832
      261844 265850 265854 267857 269867 268875 269885 270894
      273910 275914 275919 275927 277935 277945 279952 279957
      274961 268964 261967 253969 241972 233975 235983 237989
      240994 263008 268013 273016 279019 284020 292021 298019
      306009 309001 311992 314973 321942 323933 322925 321920
      322916 324910 328872 333857 333850 338843 351820 366799
      370792 375786 382784 384786 385788 383790 375799 372803
      372806 373815 375819 378821 383823 388820 392817 396817
      401821 400830 399838 401845 402850 404853 411857 419856
      425853 434845 442832 455805 464794 469782 477768 484755
      488750 490742 493733 495723 495717 496711 497701
 0.01 459163 460158 458155 454147 452139 448133 446129 444127
      441128 438131 436141 434150 437156 442161 444164 448165
      451164 454164 459163
 0.01 456177 453171 451172 449175 447179 443180 441182 436181
      429182 425182 423184 423188 424192 429195 433194 438195
      445196 449195 452193 454184 456177
 0.01 454115 455103 454096 452092 450090 448091 445089 442087
      438088 433089 429087 425086 422088 423093 426097 432103
      437110 443116 446119 450117 454115
 0.01 400206 401203 400200 398196 392193 388192 385188 380187
      377182 369179 367178 363180 359181 357183 360186 365189
      373193 378199 383201 387204 397207 400206
 0.01 399053 397048 396045 393045 382041 374041 373042 371040
      369034 366030 362032 359036 352037 348038 340045 335049
      333046 331042 330038 323037 319040 318045 318048 320050
      324054 321060 320063 317065 313062 308064 303067 299068
      288063 279057 274054 268054 261060 256059 251061 247064
      249069 255078 260087 275102 283110 287114 292117 298118
      303118 316118 321119 324124 327129 331127 333120 339120
      343116 346112 347107 350106 353107 355109 361103 359094
      363096 369094 376100 380096 379092 382086 386082 389068
      399053
 0.01 369084 368082 368081 367079 367078 366079 365081 365082
      363083 363085 364087 366087 367086 368085 369084
 0.01 323163 324158 322158 319157 316155 314154 310153 308151
      305150 303150 304153 306155 308156 311158 313159 316160
      320161 322162 323163
 0.25 532872 532870 532867 531865 530865 529867 528870 528867
      527866 526868 527870 527871 526873 526876 527877 528876
      529875 530875 532873 532872
 0.25 501931 501926 500923 496919 490916 485911 480907 475907
      469911 466910 463909 460904 455901 447900 439900 432901
      425900 419901 413903 408907 404912 400918 397924 394931
      394935 396937 404936 410933 415934 419939 421941 425940
      430938 433937 435939 436947 438951 441952 447951 453949
      459947 469954 472954 478956 485954 491951 495948 497942
      501931
 0.25 501893 500890 496890 494891 492893 490896 488898 487900
      487903 489904 492905 494904 496901 498898 500896 501893
 0.25 472703 470696 467699 465697 462691 458677 453666 449659
      445654 441651 435652 424651 414653 403659 393666 384673
      377681 370691 364699 356710 348718 342726 336735 324753
      318763 316769 315775 311788 308799 295816 291820 288825
      286835 281847 279852 279860 281877 283891 284907 286921
      288935 288947 293976 297987 300989 302986 304979 310953
      312940 313926 314911 314902 314894 312879 314866 316853
      318840 318832 316824 312821 312818 313814 316812 320808
      323803 325800 328800 334798 340795 345792 349790 355790
      359788 362784 367781 375772 383766 387766 388770 389775
      399779 401781 402785 398789 392791 388794 383798 382800
      384801 389798 395796 399795 403797 406802 409807 412825
      415830 419834 422834 425832 430828 437820 444810 450800
      461780 466768 469754 472741 472723 473712 472703
 0.25 375066 374063 370061 367060 363060 360061 359058 361055
      358052 353052 351050 347050 349052 352057 354066 360071
      365071 373069 375066
 0.25 344078 342075 338073 333073 329075 327077 324081 325085
      328088 331091 335094 338097 342094 341087 343081 344078
 0.25 344052 345050 343049 342050 342052 343052 344052
 0.25 302097 302091 300086 294079 285073 281071 275069 264068
      258066 255067 254069 261076 266083 273089 281096 290101
      296101 301099 302097
 0.50 491934 492932 491929 489930 487931 486930 485929 484929
      483929 482932 482934 482936 484937 485937 486936 487935
      489935 491935 491934
 0.50 464735 465729 464724 462716 457700 452684 445671 441664
      437659 426658 419657 415658 412660 406664 402669 398674
      395680 395689 395695 396697 393700 387701 381698 377696
      371700 367705 360714 356719 351724 346727 341733 334742
      329753 323765 322773 325777 330781 335782 341779 344775
      350764 353758 358752 365743 372733 374731 377731 383733
      386738 388748 395759 398765 398770 400774 403775 409776
      416776 420782 419791 416797 415807 416811 418816 420818
      423819 426819 432816 437811 444799 449787 456774 458767
      460761 463747 464735
 0.50 453913 452911 448910 446911 443912 440913 438914 436916
      435918 436920 440920 443920 447919 448918 451916 453913
 0.50 434918 431917 429913 427912 424913 422914 421910 413909
      408913 403918 402923 403927 409924 416924 418927 421926
      428921 434918
 0.50 360067 359066 358067 360067 360067
 0.50 309850 308843 307837 306828 304823 300823 296827 291837
      288864 288870 289875 290883 289891 289904 290920 291933
      293947 295960 300964 303960 308949 309943 310935 310919
      310905 310897 309892 307875 309862 309850
 0.50 294090 292083 288080 283077 278075 271073 266072 265076
      270080 274083 279087 283091 289093 292092 294090
 1.00 445700 443693 439688 432679 424671 420668 416667 413669
      413673 413677 415686 418692 416700 416707 415714 409726
      410735 413741 421749 423756 424764 427781 427788 426795
      426801 427803 432800 435794 437789 442776 447766 449759
      449751 447744 444738 440723 439715 441710 444705 445700
 1.00 362727 360726 359727 358727 357729 355730 353730 353731
      354731 355730 357730 359730 360729 361729 362727
 1.00 352733 352732 350733 350734 352733 352733
 1.00 347756 345753 342754 340755 338758 337760 336765 335767
      335771 334774 335776 337775 339773 341770 342768 343766
      345762 346759 347756
 1.00 305922 306916 305909 301908 299912 298918 299924 298931
      297935 297941 299945 300947 303945 305941 304935 303928
      305922 305922
 1.00 296868 295866 295865 293866 293868 294870 295869 296868

24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 384648 387652 388658 391673 392680 391684 389692 387698
      387701 388705 388715 387722 384726 379734 373740 365745
      354756 351760 350765 347774 343786 337795 333801 330805
      326808 318812 314818 311826 308837 308844 308852 310865
      319905 320919 322930 322938 323943 318954 315962 313966
      312974 312981 310984 308992 304002 299006 297004 288989
      286987 284988 282987 278984 273982 270977 270971 271967
      277960 280955 283951 285948 286941 286933 285929 281919
      280914 280907 278902 278897 277887 274873 270863 266841
      262832 261820 261811 259803 260797 263792 266781 268771
      273764 283750 293739 308728 316722 324714 330708 336701
      345697 349691 373658 382648
 0.01 546174 547169 545166 542158 540142 539129 537119 535109
      532103 529098 521096 516096 511099 504103 502105 498105
      485108 478107 475108 470107 463106 459103 456101 453099
      448094 443087 439085 435084 429085 427087 424091 423100
      424106 419111 414113 415118 417120 420125 419128 417130
      415135 416137 421138 424138 425135 427129 431120 433116
      436114 443112 445114 446118 446124 443127 438130 436133
      435138 435145 436151 435157 437160 441162 449163 454159
      458155 460153 462147 466143 471142 476144 483148 486152
      487157 487163 487169 486175 485179 483190 483194 484198
      482202 480202 473205 469210 470213 474215 480214 486213
      488213 490216 497226 508239 517251 520255 525252 528245
      529236 536213 541195 544185 546174
 0.01 545001 545989 544980 541960 536944 533939 531935 531930
      528906 530895 531891 533887 537880 538870 538862 536858
      536845 535822 533795 531788 530777 527771 525767 523767
      510760 503761 496765 490772 487778 484783 481792 477807
      476816 476823 474827 472829 469828 463826 453823 446821
      444821 444818 446817 450809 452805 455803 458798 463792
      476782 480777 483771 487765 492757 494751 496743 501733
      507725 512718 516712 519705 520696 519682 513662 507646
      500629 498622 494616 489615 483617 477623 473626 470625
      466624 462625 458627 455630 452637 449645 448652 446661
      444675 443685 443689 443696 444701 443704 441708 439710
      428716 422721 421726 422732 426737 429740 429745 426750
      424753 421756 414760 408766 404771 400774 396780 391787
      387792 385799 379808 366837 360852 357861 355868 352875
      350877 350881 352891 352901 351908 351914 355921 359923
      358929 357933 352940 349947 348952 348956 348962 351968
      357974 360974 362973 369971 373966 375963 376960 379950
      381944 387944 394942 399939 405933 407931 409929 412929
      415933 418935 424938 432938 435938 437940 438944 442950
      443957 450970 455974 459974 462976 486982 492985 497990
      502995 505998 508999 521010 534016 540011 543004 545001
 0.01 225052 228061 234069 238075 245079 254086 263091 270098
      275105 288118 295122 303125 310126 314125 319126 325128
      329131 332133 332137 327150 325153 319152 308148 304149
      301151 300155 302158 320170 325172 330172 337172 341175
      343180 345180 345175 343168 338162 335155 364130 368126
      368124 365119 360116 356114 354111 352107 351103 370100
      374103 379103 385097 391089 396084 401077 411073 415069
      416065 413061 409058 406055 401053 397050 391049 387049
      384048 385045 387043 385040 381036 376034 377030 375028
      372027 365026 361023 356018 347019 344014 344011 342008
      338006 335006 331010 334023 334031 334036 333041 334047
      334050 329053 326055 325059 329061 336061 341061 340065
      335071 332075 327078 323074 318073 314073 312079 309084
      303082 294079 291077 288072 284065 279059 276057 271055
      262051 242041 237035 233032 228029
 0.01 411108 409098 406100 404104 399102 397102 396106 398110
      396112 392112 385115 377119 376130 382126 388123 392116
      394115 396113 399113 403111 408112 411108
 0.01 398206 393197 390193 385190 379182 375179 370179 366177
      362174 362178 359181 355182 351186 355187 360187 366189
      370192 377199 381202 387205 395207 398206
 0.01 349196 349194 349192 349190 349189 347189 346191 346194
      347196 348197 349196
 0.25 525828 525820 524815 521810 517806 502800 497801 494804
      491808 488813 488819 488826 489831 489838 488851 490855
      494860 497862 496865 491874 486881 487888 490892 494894
      498895 502893 506888 512882 515879 516871 518861 521845
      523836 525828
 0.25 497668 496663 494660 488653 474650 469651 465653 461661
      460671 462686 463692 463697 463702 461708 453723 456727
      458728 461729 467728 474729 477731 481731 485725 487716
      489706 491695 491690 492687 496677 497668
 0.25 475890 473884 469880 464877 461872 457872 455874 451879
      448884 449889 451891 455895 460898 464898 470896 474892
      475890
 0.25 450731 451726 449721 447720 443721 441723 439725 437728
      438731 439732 442733 445735 447735 449734 450731
 0.25 431857 430851 428846 422839 419835 415833 406829 403829
      399831 395835 393839 389848 386859 385865 383869 380879
      376889 374894 373896 374900 376903 382904 385907 389909
      397906 402905 406906 412906 416905 424900 427896 429892
      426881 429870 431858 431857
 0.25 396922 397917 396915 391912 384912 378913 373913 369916
      371923 373928 377932 382936 386935 391931 394927 396922
 0.25 376705 375697 373690 366689 362691 351700 347703 343707
      336716 328725 321735 315745 303765 298776 296782 295790
      293795 294803 293810 289815 285820 279823 277827 277833
      279848 280856 282863 285879 287885 289891 291904 293911
      296917 299922 302924 304924 306919 307911 306905 304897
      302881 301872 301862 302848 303842 302834 301828 302820
      303816 304813 308810 311809 314807 318803 324794 332785
      339775 345765 350754 357743 365735 373724 375716 376705
 0.25 368185 366184 365184 366186 368186 368185
 0.25 360069 358068 357069 358071 360069 360069
 0.25 324161 324160 322159 320159 318159 318160 320161 322162
      324161 324161
 0.25 312156 312155 310154 308153 307153 307155 308156 309157
      311157 312156
 0.25 314109 315105 312103 310102 307100 305099 301099 299099
      296099 294102 297105 299106 301108 304110 306111 309112
      311111 314109
 0.25 283082 282078 278076 269073 264066 259061 249058 244057
      241058 242061 246064 251069 258073 265078 272083 277086
      282084 283082
 0.25 235051 236049 235047 234046 234045 233043 232043 231041
      230041 229041 228043 227045 228047 228048 229049 230051
      232052 234052 235051
 0.50 519832 519825 518821 515819 511817 507818 504821 500827
      499837 500847 503856 507863 512857 515851 517842 519832
 0.50 485684 483678 479675 473673 471676 470678 472686 473695
      474703 474707 476709 478710 480708 482701 483695 485687
      485684
 0.50 461886 461883 460881 459879 458881 458882 457884 457886
      458888 460887 461886
 0.50 425857 422851 419846 414842 409840 404840 400844 395856
      395865 394872 391878 391886 390892 394895 399897 404901
      411899 417896 418891 419881 420874 423867 425857
 0.50 369714 368708 362707 357706 352709 336725 330733 324743
      314762 310772 306782 302793 301796 303799 309801 314798
      318795 325787 332778 338769 344760 349749 354740 358737
      361733 367723 369714
 0.50 299842 299836 297830 295825 290823 287823 285825 282829
      282834 282842 283856 286868 289879 292884 294887 298884
      299878 299863 299851 299842
 0.50 281082 281081 281080 279079 278078 277077 276077 274077
      272077 271077 272079 274081 275083 277083 279083 281083
      281082
 0.50 263072 263070 262068 261068 260066 258065 257064 255064
      253064 252065 253067 254069 256070 258071 259071 260072
      261073 263072
 1.00 343746 342740 337740 332742 329746 324755 319764 315773
      314785 316787 318785 321781 328773 334765 339757 343747
      343746
 1.00 294847 294843 294839 294834 293832 291830 287831 286833
      285835 286839 287843 287845 288850 289854 291856 293853
      294849 294847
 1.50 335752 334751 332751 331752 331753 329755 328757 326760
      325762 325763 324764 325766 327765 328764 329764 330762
      331761 332760 332759 333757 334756 334754 335753 335752

$$





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