Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 180953
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
453 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 18/1200 UTC THRU NOV 21/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

06Z UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PRELIM GUIDANCE.


A RATHER DRY DAY 1 QPF ACRS THE LOWER 48 STATES WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE GT LAKES REGION AS DEEP TROF DOMINATES THE ERN 2/3RDS OF
THE COUNTRY WITH COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH OUT ACRS THE ERN
ATLC AND OFF THE SRN FL COAST.

...GREAT LAKES...

AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD FROM THE CNTL GT LAKES INTO ERN CANADA WHILE WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM DIVING SWD OVER CNTL CANADA TOWARD THE UPR MS VALLEY HELPS
MAINTAIN LOW HEIGHTS AND COLD TEMPS AND SOME VERY LIGHT SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ACRS THE UPR MS VALLEY ON LATE TUES AND TUES NIGHT.  PATRN
WILL GENLY SUPPORT HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT BANDS TO THE LEE OF LAKES
ONTARIO AND ERIE WITH LIQUID EQUIVS LIKELY EXCEEDING AN INCH GIVEN
PSBL STATIONARITY OF THE SNOW BAND AT TIMES AND STG LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY.  LEANED A BIT TOWARD HIER END HI RES MODEL RUNS GIVEN
MESOSCALE NATURE OF SNOWBANDS.    PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST QPFHSD
FOR MORE DETAILS CONCERNING THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL HERE.

ELSEWHERE...
LIGHT SHWERS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT PRESSING SWD ACRS
SRN FL EARLY IN THE PD WHERE GENL MODEL QPF BLEND WAS USED GIVEN
WEAK FORCING.  LEADING EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD ASSOCD WITH WEAK S/WV
APCHG THE CA COAST WILL APCH THE CNTL/NRN COAST THUR NIGHT.
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE AT
THIS TIME..BUT IN GENL..AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN .25
INCH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.


DAYS 2-3...

CALIFORNIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT
BASIN...

THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN THE WAY THEY HANDLE THE BREAK DOWN OF
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND THE APPROACH OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE
TROFS FROM THE ERN NOPAC.  THE FIRST WAVE TAKES A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK AND CROSSES INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST BEFORE IT WEAKENS.  THE
SECOND WAVE...THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST
FROM NORTHERN CA ON THU MORNING AND THEN SHARPEN UP AS IT
PARALLELS THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE ON ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TREK.  PCPN
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE UPPER
DYNAMICS CAN WORK IN TANDEM WITH LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
OTHERWISE RAFL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT.


GREAT LAKES...

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD BE CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY 2/3
TIME FRAME.  HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING OUT OF CANADA
WITHIN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BACK AROUND THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES EARLY ON DAY 2.  BY DAY 3 THE TROF
SHOULD BE TRANSITING SOUTH OF THE LAKES BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
AFFECT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE COVERAGE OF LAKE
EFFECT PCPN DECREASING EACH DAY. PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD ALSO BE
DECREASING AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS SLOWLY BEGIN TO WARM FROM WEST TO
EAST.  SEE THE WPC WINTER WEATHER DESK GRAPHICS AND DISCUSSIONS
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...SOUTHERN PLAIN AND WESTERN GULF COAST...

AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES EASTWARD
TO THE SOUTHEAST ... LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO STREAM MOISTURE
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/WESTERN GULF COAST.  DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE FROM 0.75 INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES BY THURSDAY EVENING AND
H85 FLOW ACCELERATES TO AROUND 35 KTS...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
SHOWN BY THE MODELS IS MODEST AT BEST WHICH RESULTS IN GENERALLY
LIGHT PCPN.  SAW LITTLE REASON TO STRAY FROM A MODEL CONSENSUS
APPROACH HERE.

SULLIVAN/BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 19/12Z
 0.01 525257 525251 524243 520233 516229 512228 509233 505237
      508241 509243 509249 506253 502256 497253 494252 492256
      492262 491268 492274 494280 496283 500288 508293 512292
      515285 516284
 0.01 513952 512946 511942 510929 505923 498918 494916 490915
      479913 476912 470911 469908 470906 473903 476895 478891
      480885 480881 480874 483864 484857 482851 480845 478840
      475838 473833 468826 465817 462807 461801 462797 463791
      463784 460779 456776 451776 450773 449769 450759 449752
      450746 450734 456728 459720 463711 467708 470710 473711
      475707 472704 470702 469697 465696 460699 453702 450704
      447709 440713 439716 441721 435727 434740 431750 431755
      431761 433787 433792 431794 430790 432780 429774 426773
      423775 422777 420783 418793 417798 417805 415814 414825
      415830 417833 419837 419840 418846 416851 417856 418863
      417867 419871 420872 418874 414877 414884 415896 416900
      417907 419915 424924 428926 432927 432931 431933 428937
      428942 431946 437952 441959 445968 449974 452972 454968
      454961 452957 448945 444935 442933 444931 447933 462938
      465942 467947 467953 469957 476962 485966 492970 497971
      501970 504965 506960 510956 513952
 0.01 476017 476013 474009 470003 465996 460993 455988 452983
      451989 450995 450998 451001 456006 461011 466016 469019
      473019 476017
 0.01 464878 463873 461869 459866 456867 454869 450870 445871
      444876 446880 449887 455893 458900 460903 463903 461900
      461893 460890 459886 464878
 0.01 444839 445836 443835 442837 440838 439839 440841 442841
      444840 444839
 0.01 416270 417253 414238 409234 407231 403230 400225 391223
      378223 367226 363229 360233 359237 359244 363250 369254
      376256 383259 390263 405267 411270 416270
 0.01 439827 437825 434824 432823 430821 430819 430814 428812
      426811 426815 427817 427822 428826 429829 431833 434830
      438830 439827
 0.01 409223 410221 410218 410216 408215 407214 405214 403214
      402213 400213 401214 403216 405217 406218 407220 408220
      409223 409223
 0.01 398793 395793 389794 388797 385801 381804 380807 380809
      384807 387804 390799 393797 396794 398793
 0.01 366818 366815 364816 361818 359821 359823 358828 358830
      358832 359830 360827 361823 363821 365818 366818
 0.01 292793 288785 283779 280780 277783 270786 265787 262790
      255793 243802 239805 239810 240814 244815 250814 247821
      245825 245829 245833 247835 255836 260831 272821 278815
      282810 291797 292793
 0.01 230975 233978 239979 242980 248980 252979 255978 256974
      254970 250968 246966 243965 237964 234963 232963
 0.25 474855 474848 471845 468843 464839 462836 463839 465844
      465849 464856 465863 467866 470867 471865 473860 474855
 0.25 459788 456785 452786 449782 447781 445782 443787 443793
      443800 441805 442810 444814 448821 452830 454834 456833
      457830 457822 457815 458803 459790 459788
 0.25 456847 456845 454840 452839 450841 448843 446846 446848
      446853 448855 450855 451855 455853 456850 456847
 0.25 447746 446741 442742 438746 436748 435756 435761 436768
      436775 439774 441769 443764 444759 445754 446749 447746
 0.25 430786 429780 426779 424782 422786 421792 420796 419802
      418806 418813 420816 423810 424806 425801 427796 428791
      429786 430786
 0.25 390246 389244 389243 388241 387240 387239 385238 383237
      381238 380238 379239 378240 379242 380243 382244 384245
      385246 387247 389247 390246
 0.25 274799 275797 274795 273795 271794 270795 268796 266798
      265800 264800 265801 266802 267802 268802 270802 271802
      272801 274799 274799
 0.25 244974 243973 242972 241971 239970 237971 236971 237972
      239973 240973 241974 243974 244974
 0.50 455806 456796 454792 451792 448787 446785 445788 445795
      445802 446809 449816 451821 453824 454820 455813 455806
 0.50 445749 444744 441746 440749 438751 437755 437758 436763
      437767 438770 440768 441764 442762 443759 444755 445752
      445749
 0.50 428788 429783 426783 424786 423789 422792 421795 420799
      420801 419806 421810 422807 424803 425801 425798 426794
      428791 428788
 1.00 444752 443749 442751 441752 440755 439757 439760 441762
      442759 442757 443754 443752 444752
 1.00 427791 427789 426787 425789 424790 424791 423794 422796
      422798 422799 421801 422803 422804 422803 423801 424800
      424798 425796 426793 426791 427791

24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 509294 511288 511282 511277 512273 514265 513261 513255
      513250 506230 500216 496210 490204 486202 482201 474201
      466204 461208 457207 450209 448206 450203 452199 452193
      455188 458185 464182 460178 454173 451171 448172 442178
      435179 426176 422173 420168 416161 413167 410166 408163
      406151 400139 395138 393140 394144 394151 393156 394159
      394163 396164 395168 393172 392176 395184 393189 391191
      385189 384192 382192 377190 374188 369187 370191 368194
      365199 366204 367207 363207 358205 353208 353212 354215
      352217 352220 354224 360230 364234 371239 379242 388244
      392245 394248 392255 390259 385265 383269 381275 383282
      385285 387288 393290 396290 405288 417284 424281 431277
      437274 443269 450264 455266 462264 464261 468262 474268
      479270 482269 485269 487272 490280 493287 497295 501297
      505296 509294
 0.01 507967 495931 496927 496921 495908 492884 488863 479846
      471831 469826 468821 469812 474808 477804 477799 474788
      471777 470770 469762 468756 466752 458739 456736 455730
      456725 456719 458709 464702 460696 457698 456703 452709
      449709 447702 450699 451697 450691 450688 453684 452680
      445675 438678 434684 432693 430699 430704 427711 423713
      420716 419721 419724 422724 424726 425732 430737 431744
      431750 431756 430759 424765 412774 408782 405787 403790
      400792 396793 393800 394805 393811 393821 392828 393832
      397833 407832 412833 412837 410840 409843 409847 411850
      411857 411863 413867 418875 438900 447911 450916 453918
      462918 466919 468922 467933 469943 473946 474950 479957
      481960 486960 490961 492965 497971 500973 505973 507967
 0.01 448734 447731 447729 447727 447724 445723 444723 442725
      440726 440728 440731 439731 438734 440736 442737 442738
      444739 445738 447736 448734
 0.01 425127 425124 424119 424115 424110 423109 421107 419107
      417109 417111 418116 420119 420123 421126 423129 425127
 0.01 406801 404799 402799 400798 399800 398802 398805 398807
      400809 401806 403806 404804 404803 406801
 0.01 283783 283779 278779 274778 275774 276770 274768 270768
      267770 261775 256781 247792 239805 237815 236818 237824
      238829 239832 244832 247830 253825 259820 263814 265813
      267814 269812 272805 274797 283783 283783
 0.01 231975 236979 240980 243980 250978 259976 262975 266975
      272974 271972 266972 263973 259973 250972 244969 237966
      233967 231969 230971
 0.25 504276 503271 501267 497260 494254 491246 489244 485243
      483245 479245 473242 475247 477249 483254 489259 493265
      498271 500275 504276 504276
 0.25 461243 460237 456233 450230 448225 442222 436225 429232
      426232 421227 418223 413220 407219 403214 399211 395206
      391203 388201 384201 381200 378200 378203 379206 386214
      383217 379219 376225 376228 378230 387237 393239 398243
      406250 410254 415257 425256 437257 446253 450252 455248
      461243
 0.25 480872 480866 478860 474850 467844 463846 461845 460840
      461835 459822 461818 461811 458800 454793 447798 444802
      439802 435802 434797 433794 431794 429789 427787 426789
      423794 420802 418813 418816 421818 426817 428816 429817
      432823 435825 438826 440830 443832 446831 450832 453835
      455840 453845 449846 446850 440855 429857 425858 421860
      421863 424866 431870 435871 440871 450868 455863 461857
      463856 465863 467868 468870 468874 466885 464895 464903
      466908 470907 472902 475892 477880 480872
 0.25 443771 443766 442762 442757 440754 438755 437758 437763
      436768 436770 436775 437779 439780 441778 442774 443771
 0.25 415265 414262 412260 408260 406261 404262 402263 400265
      398269 399273 402273 404272 406271 409270 412269 414267
      415265
 0.50 472892 472890 472887 471886 470888 468890 467893 467895
      466898 466900 466903 467904 468904 469903 470900 470897
      471895 472893 472892
 0.50 447243 448241 446239 441239 433242 429243 424240 414236
      404234 401234 400237 399239 402243 406242 414247 419249
      425249 433250 437250 441248 447243
 0.50 452806 452805 451804 450803 449804 449807 448807 447809
      447811 446812 447814 449813 450811 451809 452807 452806
 0.50 395235 393233 392232 392231 391229 390229 389227 387227
      385228 384230 384231 385233 386233 387234 389235 391236
      392237 394235 395235


24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 472619 479622 485627 491632 495640 500650 502657 501663
      502676 502689 500698 497709 496714 494717 491721 488723
      481729 470729 464726 457720 451726 456735 461741 462747
      461751 459756 460761 462778 465788 470796 478813 482821
      484825 485832 488845 491859 490864 490872 490879 488884
      485892 480899 476905 472907 468908 464906 461903 458898
      456893 454889 454882 450872 443874 433874 428874 425872
      420867 417856 416849 418846 418842 419837 422836 426838
      428843 432850 436851 439851 441848 442844 442838 440834
      436830 428827 425829 420831 416833 413830 411824 410817
      410805 410793 412784 415781 418778 421775 422768 425756
      426747 428742 431739 440736 444734 446729 443716 444711
      447707 453701 457696 451697 438707 425698 418695 416692
      416686 417674 418661 420650 422646 425643 440631
 0.01 520271 519267 520262 521258 519253 516246 512237 505217
      500209 494202 489198 482201 472210 461207 459205 457211
      449214 441214 438211 436208 433205 432200 428181 422174
      418165 414158 408150 402146 397140 390140 383135 377130
      368124 353117 348121 346125 345131 347138 350141 352140
      358141 361144 365148 366154 366159 368163 370166 374166
      377164 381163 385162 388164 390173 385175 383183 379184
      373183 363181 358179 354181 351182 348180 347185 347190
      353194 355196 359196 360202 361204 366203 371204 374208
      375213 375219 379218 375247 378256 384261 395265 404264
      421270 428270 435267 441263 444260 449259 465257 472257
      479255 482254 486255 489258 489263 484271 485275 489278
      491282 491287 497295 501297 504296 511295
 0.01 507177 504167 502162 498159 494159 489157 485156 481153
      478150 477147 478145 480143 482145 484149 489152 492153
      493150 490147 493146 493144 491140 488136 484132 479130
      473130 467127 459130 459134 462139 462141 460142 456140
      447143 444144 443140 445135 447129 450125 455115 457109
      457104 452094 447092 444092 434094 424097 421101 420109
      425118 426124 426132 422136 422138 424140 433145 434149
      433152 433156 435161 438164 446173 449177 447182 443181
      441185 442188 445187 448187 453188 458187 462184 464179
      469178 472179 474181 479183 482186 487185 490186 492189
      494194 498195 502184 507177
 0.01 488234 488231 487228 486225 486224 484224 482223 481223
      479222 478222 476222 476225 475227 475230 476231 478232
      479233 480234 481236 482236 484237 486235 488234
 0.01 460232 460230 459228 458227 456226 454227 453226 452227
      451230 450230 449232 450234 451237 453237 455238 456237
      457237 458234 459234 460232
 0.01 431168 431166 429166 428165 426165 427168 427170 429170
      431169 431168
 0.01 411110 412106 412101 411097 410096 406095 404097 401097
      399099 397101 396103 397106 400108 401111 403114 405115
      407114 409112 411110
 0.01 375947 373939 369932 367927 366922 364912 363906 362900
      361896 360890 358887 354889 349895 342910 336915 326919
      318921 312924 307933 306937 303940 297944 289947 274954
      264955 257958 253960 250963 248966 247972 247977 249980
      253980 257982 267985 275988 283990 292989 297988 301986
      308982 335967 349972 359972 363969 366965 369962 371957
      375947
 0.01 274801 272797 266796 262796 257797 251799 246802 245806
      244813 243821 244824 247824 252821 257822 261823 267823
      270822 270820 262815 260813 258809 259806 262805 267804
      271804 274801
 0.25 517281 516278 516272 516269 515264 513260 510265 508269
      506271 500267 497268 498276 501282 504286 506290 510290
      512288 516283 517281
 0.25 491654 488644 484638 478633 472629 465628 455631 451634
      449637 450646 448650 446652 438658 438662 440666 443667
      448666 452659 458652 464647 466647 470649 482657 489677
      491676 492673 492669 491655 491654
 0.25 476867 474857 471845 468838 462832 458825 457813 456800
      457788 454784 451783 448786 446790 443798 438804 437810
      438815 444821 448827 452835 453842 455846 459847 462849
      463853 463858 466868 468876 471879 474876 476867
 0.25 438248 431234 430226 429221 427221 420221 416222 413219
      402209 396205 392203 388203 386206 387209 393214 398219
      403225 405228 405232 401242 402246 404248 411253 417256
      425258 431257 437250 438248
 0.25 448758 448754 448748 444744 441744 438746 434750 432756
      432764 432773 433783 436784 438782 441776 444771 446764
      448758
 0.25 417206 417204 417203 415205 417207 417206
 0.25 429793 428786 425784 422786 421789 420794 418801 418806
      418813 418816 422815 424810 426805 427800 428795 429793
 0.25 314958 312957 308957 305957 301958 299958 296959 293960
      294962 297964 299965 303965 305964 308963 311962 313960
      314958
 0.25 291960 290960 288960 287960 286960 285961 284962 285964
      286965 288966 289966 288964 288962 288961 290961 291960
 0.50 451816 451814 450814 449811 449809 449807 449804 450802
      450801 448800 446800 445802 445804 444805 444807 444810
      445812 445813 446814 447816 448816 449817 451817 451816
 0.50 449797 448795 447795 447797 448799 449797
 0.50 399211 398210 397209 395210 396211 398211 399211

$$





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