Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FXUS04 KWBC 131732
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
131 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 14/0000 UTC THRU APR 15/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES

A WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL CONTINUE DAY 1 ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY STRETCHING FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS--INTO THE MID MS VALLEY---NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES---REACHING A POSITION FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY--INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY
THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD.  PW VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE---2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN---THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HEAVY PRECIPITATION MAY BE
FOCUSED IN TWO REGIONS DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD.  ONE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE A SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK AHEAD OF THE AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS---PARALLEL TO THE FRONT
ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
CONVECTION IS ALREADY ENHANCING IN RESPONSE TO THE BACKING OF THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO AN INCREASINGLY SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEASTWARD
EJECTING HEIGHT FALLS. THIS STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INFLOW---VERY
FAVORABLE COUPLED JET DYNAMICS ACROSS THIS REGION IN THE ABOVE
AVERAGE PW AXIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS.
  THE QPF AXES AMONG THE LATEST HI RES---SREF AND OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS--WITH
AREAL AVERAGE 1-2"+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY

THE SECOND MAX PRECIPITATION AREA WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS IS AHEAD OF THE
STRONGER AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS ROTATING INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL US TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  THERE ARE MORE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO QPF DETAILS AMONG THE LATEST GUIDANCE
ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT THAN FARTHER TO THE
NORTH---LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND
THE SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM PUSH.  HOWEVER---CONFIDENCE HIGHER WITH
OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES/LEE OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES

THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UVVS AHEAD OF THE STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG FRONT SURGING SOUTH IN THE LEE OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL AND  ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL FROM NORTHEAST
NM---NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN CO AND FAR WESTERN KS.  SEE THE
LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 15/00Z
 0.01 489613 492630 494646 496650 497657 499671 499677 499684
      499692 500694 503694 507695 512694 516695 518699 526719
      529730 528737 529746 529759 525768 520777 519787 517803
      515815 513819 510823 504828 498834 494838 491843 487852
      482859 445925 440933 438938 435942 427958 417976 412985
      411991 410998 410006 411011 416022 423041 434076 432080
      430083 431087 435096 436101 434105 430112 426115 422117
      413116 401115 398114 396111 397108 408098 409104 411108
      413110 416109 418106 422103 423096 421085 417078 412071
      404079 401081 396081 392082 391087 389089 383088 378086
      375087 370082 366078 363077 359077 355078 351076 347068
      347063 345059 338054 336045 344024 350007 355996 357991
      355986 353977 353973 350972 346974 337971 335969 333967
      330968 314978 308983 306985 303988 297993 291998 286997
      282995 279991 276989 273989 257984 253981 253974 253968
      255963 257954 260946 263935 266925 269915 272907 286875
      288870 291868 297863 305857 311851 314848 318844 320840
      322839 321836 316831 308827 299824 296822 292822 288820
      284815 278808 275806 268806 259806 252811 246818 244819
      240817 239812 238806 242800 249795 253793 259793 268795
      271796 276796 279797 282794 300787 305787 311788 319791
      336797 341797 343798 353797 362797 366798 370796 385786
      401774 413762 426750 433744 437740 443738 446735 447730
      448719 449709 449703 448698 444688 442684 441679 441672
      439666 437657 435652 437641 440631
 0.25 517743 516734 513727 510722 505720 501718 496715 492715
      490714 486711 484705 483696 484683 484666 480649 479629
      478625 474627 471633 470639 469648 465654 459664 457671
      457679 457693 457709 458720 458728 456742 450771 448778
      447783 443794 441801 438808 432816 427822 423826 415833
      406839 394844 382848 368850 356852 354852 353849 351844
      352836 353832 352827 349827 347829 344834 337844 334848
      328852 318857 312863 304871 299882 297890 294894 288902
      282912 277924 275929 275933 278935 282934 286934 291936
      294939 294946 294954 292960 290967 290971 291975 295978
      300975 308966 315957 318953 323951 331951 335954 338958
      343960 347960 353958 363952 374950 387949 393949 396950
      399953 403964 405968 409966 412962 414956 417949 419941
      421934 424928 430919 437911 445900 452891 459881 470860
      477850 481840 487828 492815 502794 508781 512767 515754
      517743
 0.25 397060 397055 395053 390051 385047 381043 378037 377031
      376024 372020 365021 361025 356036 354042 355049 356056
      360057 362056 368056 372059 373062 377064 382067 387065
      393064 397060
 0.50 507745 506738 503733 497729 487732 478735 476731 476726
      478719 478713 477699 477686 477677 476673 475670 471669
      468673 465677 463685 463697 463706 465716 468729 469734
      468738 466742 467749 466757 465763 460772 455781 452786
      451792 449797 446802 443809 431828 425836 419843 413850
      403856 396860 388865 383866 378866 366865 355865 350864
      346861 344857 340856 329859 324860 321862 314868 309876
      307880 305886 301897 300901 297905 291912 289918 290922
      291924 298929 301935 301939 301944 299949 298962 326943
      332943 337945 343952 348953 352952 358945 367939 372939
      376941 380943 386944 392943 397940 407938 414932 426917
      432909 438903 444895 451885 460869 470851 475839 478829
      488808 496787 500778 504767 506754 507745
 0.50 382056 382051 380049 378046 376045 373044 371043 369043
      365045 365047 366050 368051 370053 374054 376055 379058
      382056
 1.00 494761 494758 492758 487760 481764 475770 470778 460792
      456801 451806 441821 432835 424852 419858 413863 407868
      405873 404880 404891 404897 406903 408907 410910 415912
      420912 427906 439892 448879 452872 457862 462844 468824
      477810 486794 489783 491775 494761
 1.00 376893 374889 368888 363889 360888 358886 350879 347876
      341876 335868 330866 324868 321870 317874 314884 313891
      311896 307905 305910 304917 305921 308926 312937 315941
      317941 322938 326934 329931 335931 345932 350929 353925
      366910 373902 375898 376893
 1.50 480789 480784 479780 475780 473783 467794 461805 457810
      452813 449816 445822 439832 436837 434845 429855 426862
      425870 421881 419888 418896 420902 422903 426903 433894
      439885 446874 450862 453856 455849 456832 462821 468811
      475801 478795 480789
 1.50 358899 353897 349895 349889 347884 345881 342880 336878
      332875 327878 320886 317892 315898 314905 314913 316920
      321923 328922 333920 339919 346917 350913 353908 358899
 2.00 451850 451843 447841 444844 441848 438851 436856 435861
      434866 435872 439870 442867 445863 446859 449855 451850
      451850
 2.00 348903 344899 343888 341885 338884 329884 324888 319894
      317903 318908 321911 326914 335914 342912 345909 347906
      348903

$$




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