Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 241900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 25/0000 UTC THRU FEB 26/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NEW ENGLAND...

A SHORT WAVE STARTING DAY 1 OVER THE GREAT LAKES TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND AND REACHES THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEEP-LAYER LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE (INCREASING LEFT EXIT REGION UPPER DIVERGENCE)
INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THE BACKING MID
LEVEL FLOW ALLOWS THE SURFACE LOW AND ITS INVERTED TROUGH TO BACK
TOWARD THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN TERMS OF THE 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE...THERE IS NOT AS MUCH SPREAD COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS
CONCERNING HOW FAR WEST TO BRING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG
THE INVERTED TROUGH. PER THE LATEST PMDHMD...WPC UTILIZED A BLEND
OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF AS A BASIS...THOUGH GIVEN THE
IMPROVED TRENDS (BETTER CONSENSUS)...INCORPORATION OF THE
NAM/UKMET/RGEM WERE ALSO UTILIZED ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
(ESPECIALLY) DOWNEAST MAINE.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS-SOUTHERN MS VLY-SOUTHEAST-LOWER MID ATLANTIC...

ON THE HEELS OF THE RELATIVELY FLAT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE LOWER TN VALLEY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS TX AND INTO THE LOWER MS VLY
DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD (WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
OPENING UP IN THE PROCESS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE BROAD NORTHERN STREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH). IN
TERMS OF MODEL PREFERENCES HERE...AGAIN PER THE PMDHMD...WPC
UTILIZED THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AS A BASE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED TO
AN EXTENT BY THE 12Z ECMWF. GIVEN THE COUPLING OF BOTH NRN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM FORCING (EXIT REGION DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE...WITH PIVOTING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING
AND ASSOCIATED LOW-MID LEVEL FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET STREAK)...EXPECT A RATHER ELONGATED WSW-ENE COLD
CONVEYOR BELT (CCB)...ONE WHERE THE HEAVIER PCPN IS DISTRIBUTED IN
A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE AND LOW-MID LEVEL FGEN. WPC NOTED AREAL-AVERAGE QPF
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF .50 INCH WITHIN THIS AXIS OF MAX PRECIP.
SNOW AND ICE ARE EXPECTED DURING DAY 1 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SUITE OF WPC WINTER WEATHER
PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.


...NORTHERN-CENTRAL ROCKIES AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

A NORTHERN STREAM JET STREAK/VORT LOBE WILL DROP SSE ACROSS THE
NRN ROCKIES AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH DURING DAY ONE...WITH THIS LATEST CLIPPER SYSTEM
LEADING TO WEAK LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE
DIVIDE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED (PW AND LOW-MID LAYER
MOISTURE FLUX POSITIVE ANOMALIES MINIMAL). HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING
POST-ARCTIC FRONT UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST (.10
TO .25") LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES... WHILE ANOTHER SEPARATE NW-SE ORIENTED AXIS OF
ENHANCED PCPN AMOUNTS (GENERALLY .1O TO .25+ INCH) ASSOCIATED
WITHIN THE NARROW SWATH OF DEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT NE OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK IS NOTED FROM PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO
NORTHEAST NE...MUCH OF IA...NORTHERN MO...AND NORTHWEST IL. PER A
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AN AREA OF MAX PCPN AROUND .50 INCH IS
EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL IOWA. AGAIN...FOR FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING
THE WINTER WEATHER (SNOWFALL) PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SUITE OF WPC WINTER WEATHER
PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFO.

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 26/00Z
 0.01 474619 484624 489628 493634 496640 499651 500655 501661
      499670 490685 484693 478699 474701 472704 468712 466720
      463725 461734 461742 459752 457758 457782 458794 460798
      460802 461809 459815 458823 454826 452827 452830 456842
      466841 470848 472855 474858 473861 472863 470862 473879
      472883 471888 469890 466888 464879 463869 459861 457859
      453858 442858 436859 432857 429857 427855 425853 424847
      421838 420830 416826 412828 410826 410823 411818 409813
      407812 405807 400802 397802 393801 389801 385806 375817
      371814 371808 372804 377799 383795 385795 387792 391792
      398786 400788 403785 408782 413778 418773 421773 426770
      427767 428762 426759 426753 429747 432739 440736 439731
      436730 431731 428733 428728 430726 428725 424726 414728
      411731 408735 405738 398742 385749 375756 364767 359774
      353781 358802 359812 360825 357839 356856 356876 353914
      351924 349933 346943 344954 341961 341966 345967 350971
      353976 357983 357986 359989 359994 360999 360006 359017
      357025 357031 355033 350039 347047 344055 343062 344069
      346074 351073 356070 358069 360070 356076 351081 346095
      343096 340096 335093 330086 328083 324081 317083 312086
      305090 298092 295088 296082 298079 302073 306066 308062
      308056 308051 307047 306040 302034 300027 299020 298010
      298999 298990 298984 295983 290981 286983 281987 274991
      270994 267995 264994 262990 262985 261982 257980 251976
      247972 244968 239963 235962 232962
 0.01 428634 414647 405653 401658 397661 391667 382673 367688
      361694 355702 352708 349711 343718 338726 334735 330733
      326729 322728 318729 308745 299764 296771 292781 289793
      283800 282808 283813 284820 283825 279830 273836 266841
      259848 256852 254857 253867 255872 255878 259881 261882
      259884 254893 251903 246911 244921 247932 243941 240950
      238954 232955
 0.01 542187 543179 542174 538164 535152 537133 535117 533103
      533098 532095 535091 536084 536077 529057 525047 519038
      504021 497014 492005 483990 470976 466971 462966 456957
      454952 451947 447937 429903 425899 422897 418894 413893
      407891 404892 403893 399897 396901 392908 389917 388926
      389934 390939 390946 387956 387974 389979 392984 396986
      401986 405985 407986 408988 413995 417006 420011 420014
      418017 417020 414021 408021 403022 398027 396030 392032
      382033 366040 362043 360047 361051 357056 361056 365057
      366061 369065 373068 374071 374075 374080 377083 381078
      383076 388076 393082 397081 400084 405082 410085 417093
      423095 427097 429101 426103 422105 421110 421114 422115
      426114 430115 434116 437115 443118 446121 451123 453124
      453128 451134 453139 460148 466158 474155 476157 481158
      485156 490158 494161 497159 501160 504163 506165 507170
      506177 510182 516185 521187 524190 534194 537194 539192
      542187
 0.01 520271 520263 515261 516254 515249 514242 511235 507229
      505224 502221 497218 490216 484216 481211 479210 474213
      470213 468214 462213 458214 455217 452220 457224 460227
      462230 455233 450235 447236 445239 445243 448245 456249
      461253 466258 469265 471275 469286 469304 470312 472317
      474319 479320 486318 498315 501310 505303 510295 513287
      520271
 0.01 511092 507086 502080 498075 494071 484060 481055 479052
      477054 478056 474059 470056 466052 464053 466057 472068
      475076 480079 489091 493094 495097 498098 503095 509094
      511092
 0.01 488231 487226 485225 484222 481220 478220 476220 473221
      471222 469225 470229 473229 475229 478228 480228 482229
      485232 488231
 0.01 463178 461176 459175 456174 453173 451170 450170 449173
      451176 454179 455181 457182 459180 461180 463178
 0.01 434042 433040 431038 429039 431041 431042 432043 434042
 0.01 427037 426035 424035 422034 422036 422038 424039 426039
      427037
 0.01 392057 391056 390055 388056 388057 386057 384058 386060
      386061 387062 389062 390061 390059 391058 392057
 0.01 384070 384066 383063 384061 382058 381056 377055 375055
      374053 372055 370057 370059 371061 373064 375064 378067
      380069 382071 384070
 0.01 345008 345001 345997 344995 344992 342989 342982 342975
      341973 341969 339968 338972 336978 334991 331002 330008
      329016 330023 331029 330036 330040 333042 336038 339032
      341027 341021 345008
 0.01 272859 271857 269858 268859 267860 266862 266864 265866
      264868 264870 266871 267870 268869 269868 269866 270865
      270863 271861 272859
 0.25 446628 482636 487642 490647 491653 490659 488665 484669
      480671 475674 472679 468682 450694 446695 441698 436702
      433704 422706 412710 404714 398716 394719 387726 375730
      367734 359740 352749 346756 343757 339757 337754 337750
      339746 343736 348727 358712 365704 373697 387684 394677
      404671 418657 425650 429646 432641 435635 441630
 0.25 526166 523161 518157 516153 511149 502140 494133 490129
      483126 478127 476131 478134 487143 491147 496150 508154
      513157 516161 521165 526166
 0.25 495257 495255 493254 492253 490255 491257 493258 494259
      495257
 0.25 474114 475109 475105 472099 467102 465103 463101 458098
      455098 452095 450095 449097 451102 456107 461110 465114
      470117 474114
 0.25 455078 455076 456074 455070 453068 452070 448070 446071
      443070 440071 439072 441074 444076 446077 449079 453079
      455078
 0.25 456003 447986 444977 442973 440966 435945 428928 423921
      419918 415917 412917 408919 405924 406931 409940 413949
      417958 423965 428971 431981 436989 442995 448000 451003
      456003
 0.25 445109 444106 443106 442105 441105 441108 442109 444110
      445109
 0.25 413071 412068 412067 411066 410065 409065 407065 406065
      405065 403066 403067 403068 404070 405070 406072 408074
      410073 412072 413071
 0.25 348862 348848 347833 346828 344826 340824 335815 331813
      326812 315812 309814 305818 300826 292845 284864 274882
      271891 269898 269904 267915 266920 266925 272927 273931
      272933 270940 270945 271956 275955 279952 283949 288947
      299945 304945 307948 310954 311958 310974 310982 311990
      314999 317003 320001 324997 326991 329980 336958 342934
      344923 346912 347894 347882 348862
 0.50 477646 474641 470640 460639 456638 452635 448633 443634
      439636 436642 435654 441663 448670 453669 457667 467666
      472663 475658 477646
 0.50 427949 428947 427945 426942 425940 424940 423940 422940
      421942 422945 422947 423948 424949 424951 426951 427949
 0.50 384713 383705 377704 372707 367710 362715 360720 357725
      356728 359729 362728 369725 374722 379719 383715 384713
 0.50 343877 342855 339843 337838 334835 328831 324830 318832
      312839 305842 301844 299847 296856 291864 286872 282877
      278884 276890 275895 273905 273909 275913 283912 304912
      310908 317904 321903 323905 324908 324914 323918 320926
      317935 315948 316960 315971 316982 318988 321987 324978
      330960 331949 334938 341921 342910 343897 343886 343877
 1.00 310860 309858 307858 303863 299868 296872 293876 290881
      290885 292885 296882 299878 303873 306868 309863 310860

$$





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