Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 021822
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
121 PM EST FRI DEC 02 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 03/0000 UTC THRU DEC 04/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


...SOUTHERN U.S / CENTERED ON TEXAS...

WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS FORECAST...CENTERED ON TEXAS...AND
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TO MISSISSIPPI THROUGH SATURDAY.
A LARGE AND DEEP TROUGH WAS SETTING UP...POISED TO CLOSE OFF A MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE
TERRIBLY COLD...BUT WITH THE LOW DIGGING TO SUCH A LOW LATITUDE
THE 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES DIP TO A RARELY SEEN MINUS 5.0.
UNUSUALLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING UP FROM THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...COMBINED WITH A SUB-TROPICAL FEED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WILL BOOST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR DECEMBER... WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION
PW VALUES...WITH THE ABSOLUTE MAGNITUDES OF 1.75-INCHES-PLUS ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST RANKING NEAR THE RECORD DECEMBER VALUES. MESOSCALE
INFLUENCES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEVERAL AREAS OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER...MULTI-DAY PRECIPITATION
SHIELD. DESPITE THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THERE IS INCREASING MODEL
CONSENSUS AS TO SOME OF THE DETAILS. WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A NEAR
EVEN BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS / NAM CONUS NEST / OUR IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE
/ AND CONTINUITY. ALL OF THESE EMPHASIZE ONE PRECIP MAXIMUM ALONG
THE TX COAST NEAR GALVESTON WHERE LOW LEVEL ADVECTIONS WILL BE
BEST COUPLED WITH INSTABILITY...ANOTHER PRECIP MAXIMUM FROM THE
HILL COUNTRY INTO THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE PINEY WOODS WITHIN
THE BEST DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND FRONTOGENESIS...AND ANOTHER MAXIMUM
OUT SOUTH OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO BENEATH THE STRONGEST DIFLUENCE NORTHEAST OF THE CLOSED
LOW. THIS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...EXCEPT
PROVIDING A LITTLE SHARPER DETAIL...SEPARATING THE MAXIMA A BIT
MORE OVER EAST TEXAS...AND PUSHING THE AMOUNTS A LITTLE TOWARD THE
WETTER SIDE IN THE HIGH PLAINS BASED PRIMARILY ON TRENDS IN THE
GFS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND A MODERATE RISK ON DAY 2. PREFERENCE OF THE
UPRIGHT CONVECTION TO DEVIATE INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS MAY KEEP
THE HEAVIEST RAIN OFFSHORE OR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE UNTIL
SATURDAY...AND DRY SOIL INITIALLY WILL LIMIT FLOOD POTENTIAL...BUT
THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY
OVERWHELMED BY HEAVY AND PROLONGED RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH SATURDAY
WITHIN ROBUST ZONAL FLOW AND INCLUDING A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS. WITH RELATIVELY MARGINAL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...THE
30-HOUR TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE TAME BY
NORTHWEST STANDARDS...WITH 1-INCH AMOUNTS CONFINED TO A FEW SPOTS
IN THE OLYMPIC RANGE AND NORTHERN CASCADES. THE WPC FORECAST WAS
DERIVED FROM THE GFS / ECMWF / NAM CONUS NEST / AND
CONTINUITY...AND RESULTED IN VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE.


...GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST...

RELATIVELY COOL AND HUMID LOW LEVEL AIR...SUPPORTING AN UPPER
TROUGH IN THIS REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A REGIME OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ALSO IN THE
NORTHWEST-FACING UPSLOPE AREAS IN PA/NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIGHT...AND COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DWINDLE ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
SLOWLY MIGRATING LARGER SCALE TROUGH...WITH A SHALLOWING EFFECT ON
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD
SHAPE...AND WE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS THIS CYCLE.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

BURKE

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 524262 523255 521250 518244 516237 508219 508213 510208
      513211 516214 521221 528222 533222 535217 538211 540206
      541191 539180 534173 529166 523160 517155 485131 480126
      472122 468121 469118 473106 468093 465102 460102 456101
      452097 448095 443095 440096 428106 425108 422114 420116
      423117 425121 437117 443121 447125 448129 445133 441134
      436136 435150 440162 443164 446166 446170 444175 442178
      428183 426187 426190 428190 438192 443191 449193 452191
      456186 463179 464174 468172 492191 492196 490197 486198
      480198 476200 469204 466206 461206 455209 451211 447211
      442209 438210 432214 424219 422222 423225 426229 427235
      425239 419243 416246 416249 424251 440250 460248 465248
      469250 476255 481259 483263 487270 491277 496284 497287
      501288 505289 510289 514288
 0.01 539124 539118 538114 534107 529095 523091 520091 518093
      515095 514092 512084 509076 505070 503062 503052 503041
      502032 499025 496020 492019 489021 483024 477024 471026
      465029 464030 465035 468038 470041 474041 476042 476045
      475049 479054 487063 487069 485074 485079 486083 489088
      492092 497100 499108 501114 504120 509126 516128 522129
      527128 533129 536128 539124
 0.01 482695 481688 477684 467679 458676 451674 444670 438663
      431659 429658 426663 426669 427676 429683 431685 435684
      443686 452689 453696 451700 446706 442708 439712 437716
      433719 433723 431725 429726 422729 420733 429735 435734
      437735 437739 419743 415750 418759 416766 417771 413775
      409777 408779 402785 393791 386796 381801 378807 379810
      384809 385806 390802 395799 399796 403795 406799 408803
      408810 411816 413819 420816 424808 433823 436828 440830
      442828 445829 449833 452838 452841 450841 445841 442845
      439847 436845 434848 436854 437857 434859 432859 429857
      427855 419860 417865 421863 438866 444866 448864 456860
      460863 461866 465876 465885 465892 465900 468900 472902
      474898 475890 476885 480883 481884 478875 477869 475864
      470858 465846 461841 457835 455831 453826 453821 451818
      445812 446801 446795 443792 438784 435780 434771 435764
      439759 443756 449754 453745 456736 457732 459728 470711
      476701 480698 482695
 0.01 454061 453056 449054 448048 446043 445038 441038 441041
      444046 446051 446057 447063 450066 454061 454061
 0.01 448078 449075 448074 447072 446072 445070 443069 441069
      441072 443074 444076 446077 448078 448078
 0.01 429168 429166 429168 429168
 0.01 422140 422138 420137 420138 418139 418140 418142 420140
      421140 422140
 0.01 423956 423947 421942 416940 410943 402949 394955 385957
      379949 376939 374927 370913 365900 357878 352869 348861
      342853 336847 332841 327842 322855 319866 318869 315870
      310869 306869 305873 301882 298891 296896 293899 285908
      275916 267921 264925 263931 264939 268950 268954 268958
      267966 265970 264973 262975 259978 262983 262986 260988
      258991 253993 244998 240001 238007 238010 242013 247013
      250016 256021 263022 267026 271038 274044 271049 267051
      261051 255051 251052 244055 240057 238061 243070 245075
      249079 259087 269091 278096 285100 296104 303108 307111
      310112 310115 314120 319121 322116 322112 321108 322105
      326103 335099 341093 346085 357067 358064 360065 364068
      369070 370072 372075 372080 373085 378087 383080 387070
      386067 386061 382050 378042 375035 373032 374028 383017
      388007 389003 388997 387993 389991 392988 399982 403979
      406976 414971 419963 423956
 0.01 287802 285799 279800 277799 274799 270796 268797 266800
      268804 272806 276807 280808 284806 287802 287802
 0.01 261782 260778 256776 254779 252784 248790 245799 243803
      242807 240817 241821 242819 244822 246821 248817 251810
      258804 261801 261797 259792 260789 261782
 0.25 535204 535195 533189 529179 523168 520165 517164 507165
      499167 492166 489163 484154 479152 474151 471150 468146
      463143 460147 461153 463157 483166 500179 507188 513194
      517200 520205 522210 527212 533209 535204
 0.25 519271 520265 519262 517256 514250 510244 506243 504244
      505252 504260 502264 502268 504270 509275 512276 515275
      517273 519271
 0.25 500235 502230 501225 500219 499214 496209 492206 487205
      482204 478206 473208 470211 463216 458217 455218 455221
      458224 460226 463226 468225 471223 476222 479223 490228
      493233 498235 500235
 0.25 488246 488244 486241 484238 482235 481233 478231 475231
      473232 471233 469238 471240 473242 476244 478246 481248
      483247 486248 488246
 0.25 489144 488141 486139 484136 482134 479133 476133 474134
      472138 475141 478142 482142 485143 487144 489144
 0.25 444242 444240 443240 442240 440241 438243 440244 441244
      443243 444242
 0.25 449726 447726 447727 448727 449726 449726
 0.25 448741 447740 446741 448743 448741
 0.25 447744 446742 445744 446745 447744
 0.25 445727 444727 442727 442728 444728 445727
 0.25 369010 369985 366976 361972 359970 359966 359957 360938
      359927 357916 352899 347886 343879 341877 338876 329879
      322884 319892 313896 293912 289918 284925 279929 272933
      273939 272949 272957 271964 270976 272981 274984 273990
      271993 268997 260998 254001 257014 266015 270014 274016
      279022 282028 290038 290047 289056 288062 286065 283067
      278068 271065 266062 259059 251058 246060 244064 245067
      250074 257079 263084 269087 283091 289090 295092 303096
      309098 312100 325094 331091 334090 335085 338080 339076
      338073 336069 338065 343059 345050 346042 348037 353031
      361021 366014 369010
 0.50 532203 530194 527188 524184 523180 520176 517176 512174
      509173 505174 505177 511182 517186 522192 525201 530205
      532203
 0.50 515269 516267 516264 516263 514262 512262 511263 512265
      512266 513268 514269 515269 515269
 0.50 496223 496218 494215 489211 486209 481208 478209 474212
      472216 473217 478218 483220 488222 493224 496223
 0.50 481241 481239 480238 480236 479235 478234 476235 476236
      475237 477240 478242 480242 481241
 0.50 463221 462220 461220 460220 460221 462222 463221
 0.50 362012 359006 360996 362990 362987 360985 350982 348978
      348971 351955 353941 353933 352925 350914 347907 344899
      341895 336892 331893 326896 322898 319902 315907 309910
      302911 299914 285929 277938 276944 275952 274964 273971
      274976 278982 281987 279993 278999 277003 277007 281011
      285012 289015 291017 292021 296025 299028 297033 296040
      296044 295048 294051 295055 296061 293068 294072 297075
      303074 307072 311075 313076 316076 320067 324065 324063
      323060 321058 315058 313058 314054 317050 321050 330055
      334054 336052 338049 338045 338038 340032 345022 348019
      353018 359015 362012
 0.50 283084 282080 281078 276073 271069 264064 257061 250061
      248062 247065 251071 256076 261080 268084 275086 280086
      282085 283084
 0.50 264007 264005 264004 263005 263007 264007 264007
 1.00 484214 482214 484215 484214
 1.00 352996 351993 349993 346995 344995 340996 337997 335998
      333999 333003 335004 338005 341004 344003 346001 348000
      350998 352996
 1.00 341928 341918 339912 334912 330914 319919 310924 299927
      290932 281939 279943 277949 277957 277964 277971 280974
      288982 289988 291992 296004 297005 303004 308000 313998
      315995 317989 320983 324982 327981 332978 336974 338969
      340963 340956 338948 339940 341928 341928
 1.00 330034 331032 330031 329031 328032 326033 324035 325038
      326038 327038 328037 329036 330034 330034
 1.00 323031 324029 324027 324025 323023 323022 321021 321020
      321019 322018 322016 320016 319018 318019 318020 318022
      317024 316026 316028 317031 319031 321031 323031 323031
 1.00 270077 269073 267072 265070 262068 260067 258065 255064
      252065 253068 254070 256071 259074 261075 263076 267078
      270077
 1.50 334939 335923 334917 332918 316928 312931 308933 300933
      294934 290935 283941 280945 279950 278956 279962 281966
      285969 287973 292973 297972 299975 296983 308986 311992
      315981 319974 325965 328957 334939
 2.00 331939 330933 328929 324929 321931 314937 311938 307937
      302936 297936 290937 286940 283943 280949 279956 281962
      284963 288963 292968 297962 299957 301955 304953 308954
      309959 308963 306971 306977 310978 313976 315973 319966
      323960 327951 329943 331939
 3.00 321947 321945 320945 319945 317947 316949 317952 318952
      319951 320949 321947 321947
 3.00 303945 303940 299939 294939 290939 287942 284945 283949
      281956 283960 287960 290958 294956 297953 301950 303946
      303945
 4.00 298947 298943 296942 294941 291941 288943 287945 285947
      284949 284954 285957 288956 290955 292954 295952 296949
      298947
 5.00 294947 294945 292944 290945 288947 288948 288949 288952
      289952 290951 292949 294947 294947

$$





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