000
FXUS04 KWBC 140646
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 14/1200 UTC THRU MAY 15/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH TX

THE UPPER TROF THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS MORE TOWARD THE EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS THIS PERIOD.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RAISE PW VALUES TO
ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF TX DURING TUE INTO
EARLY WED.  THE INCREASING PW VALUES AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH TEXAS.  THE HI RES ARW & NMM ALONG WITH THE NAM
CONEST ARE MOST EMPHATIC ABOUT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DAY
1--DEPICTING HEAVY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FROM NEAR THE BIG
BEND--EASTWARD ALONG 30N.  THE REMAINDER OF THE OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE AND MOST OF THE LATEST SREF MEMBERS DO NOT SHOW HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.  AT THE MOMENT---CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
THESE HEAVY AMOUNTS GIVEN VERY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES TO FOCUS
ACTIVITY.  SUBSEQUENTLY---LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DEPICTED DAY 1.

UPPER MS VALLEY---UPPER LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES EXPECTED TO PUSH ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER DAY 1 FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
UPPER LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN CRUX OF THE HEIGHT FALLS AND THE
STRONGEST LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
BORDER---WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MAX ALSO REMAINING
NORTH OF THE BORDER ACROSS SOUTHERN SASK INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MAY SINK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES
REGION INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.  SEVERAL OF THE LATEST SREF
MEMBERS DO SHOW SOME .25"+ PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS PERIOD
AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC.  CONFIDENCE ON ANY ONE SOLUTION VERY LOW---WITH ONLY
LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED.

EASTERN MAINE

THE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
A FEW OF THE LATEST SREF MEMBERS AND THE HI RES ARW & NMM BRING
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF UP TO .25" INTO FAR
DOWNEAST MAINE.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF EASTERN MAINE--WITH THE MAJORITY
SOLUTION FOLLOWED.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

ADDITIONAL NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED
MORNING.  INCREASING PW VALUES AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW MAY
BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS INTO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA BY
THE END OF THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD.  THE TIMING WITH THESE HEIGHT
FALLS SUGGESTS ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DAY 1---WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION LIKELY
AFTER DAY 1 ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 15/12Z
 0.01 497627 493616 489612 486609 485603 483598 474589 469588
      464588 443598 431605 429609 423615 417622 412628 409634
      404639 405646 403651 406660 407664 408668 415674 419673
      426671 436673 446672 453668 458666 461660 464657 466657
      478655 482654 488650 494648 497646 498642 497627
 0.01 552893 551887 548879 546873 542868 528855 523849 521842
      521836 521829 520820 517813 515809 510793 503781 497775
      490770 486770 484769 476769 460765 452761 447758 444758
      439757 436758 432757 427759 421762 418761 411760 403761
      394765 393771 394774 400780 405781 408783 407788 404789
      399791 396793 395798 398808 407820 421836 428841 430843
      429847 426848 429860 431862 433868 442884 447891 450894
      454894 457893 459895 463898 465902 461906 456908 453912
      448915 445921 451926 458929 461933 462937 468950 470953
      474960 479967 485971 491971 496972 499975 501981 501995
      501009 497024 493049 493065 493073 491077 491081 493085
      493089 494095 496099 502109 509114 511113 514106 515101
      517096 525071 530048 533013 536984 537952 542930 547921
      549915 550910 552893
 0.01 536211 537203 537199 535188 529169 525162 520156 519132
      506141 509144 513152 511156 508159 502159 499163 498168
      501177 503184 505188 508191 515207 517212 521215 524222
      527225 530223 532220 534215 536211
 0.01 518278 520273 521267 522262 521258 517254 515248 511232
      508227 505221 501216 498212 491209 485208 482209 482211
      481218 484219 486223 485227 483230 478231 475233 474236
      471241 468244 463248 460253 457257 454265 455270 456271
      463273 466272 472274 472277 471280 468287 467301 468306
      470308 476311 481312 483311 486312 493315 497314 502310
      504305 508300 511292 517278 518278
 0.01 413068 413060 410056 401049 393048 386049 372049 365049
      360051 357057 358065 361068 367069 372072 375076 378079
      380080 384077 388078 389080 395080 398080 400077 404073
      410072 413068
 0.01 314003 314997 314991 313981 304972 298967 295965 291964
      284964 279968 270970 261971 257966 252964 242965 241967
      241972 238984 238989 236995 238998 241004 242008 241013
      242024 246030 252042 263050 274056 288054 292054 294056
      299062 305066 308065 308062 310059 311055 310046 306040
      307037 309034 312027 313020 311014 311010 314003
 0.25 478625 477621 475619 471616 464613 460612 454613 446616
      442618 438623 429632 426641 427648 431654 439654 443654
      448653 456647 467641 475634 477631 478625
 0.25 542902 541895 540888 537882 529872 524869 519865 515861
      510861 506864 505868 503871 494882 490898 486912 487920
      488926 492933 496937 501942 505947 508954 510961 511967
      511974 511981 511992 512000 516010 518016 522015 523006
      524996 526987 528968 530949 531940 533930 538916 540909
      542902
 0.25 515272 516262 512251 510246 505239 503241 502247 500250
      497251 491254 488257 486260 486269 486275 488279 488284
      491289 495289 500289 506287 510282 515272 515272
 0.25 504840 502833 499828 495825 491823 484822 478822 473824
      470826 469824 466822 464823 460824 460829 464832 468833
      472834 476838 483844 488852 492855 498856 501855 503852
      503845 504840
 0.25 303995 303991 301990 298989 296991 293992 292993 290995
      289996 291999 292999 294000 296999 299999 301998 302997
      303995
 0.25 295024 292023 290024 289025 289028 290029 292027 293027
      295024
 0.25 254000 253997 252996 251994 249994 248995 249998 250999
      251000 253001 254000
 0.50 533900 531894 527889 524888 521890 520896 521900 518901
      514901 512904 506909 505915 504929 507934 510937 510942
      511946 514945 517946 519943 520934 518927 517925 521927
      524926 526923 528917 531906 533900
 0.50 509279 510274 509269 508264 507263 505261 502260 499259
      496258 495258 493263 492267 492271 493275 495277 496279
      498281 501283 504284 506282 507281 509279

$$