000
FXUS04 KWBC 191839
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 20/0000 UTC THRU JUN 21/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AND SE ATLC COASTAL STATES...

A FRONTAL BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THIS
REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHWRS.  MOST
WIDESPREAD ACTVTY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SE ATLC COAST WHERE COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ASOCTD WITH A WEAK SHRTWV WILL TRIGGER SHWRS
AIDED BY INITIALLY FVBL RT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS.  SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING IS LESS PRONOUNCED ALONG THE ERN AND CNTRL GULF
COASTS BUT THE AVBLTY OF HI PWS SEEMS TO ASSURE WIDESPREAD BUT
LESS ORGANIZED SHWRS THERE.

...PAC NW TO THE N CNTRL U.S...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING SHRTWV ENERGY/HGT FALLS
ROTATING NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE PAC NW CLOSED UPPER LO WHICH
SHOULD BE AVBL TO FIRE WIDESPREAD SHWRS FM THE NRN ROCKIES EWD
INTO THE N CNTRL U.S. THRU THE FCST PD.  MODEL QPFS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PLACEMENT BUT SOME SGFNT DIFFERENCES
EXIST IN REGARDS TO WHERE TO MAXIMIZE PCPN..PARTICULARLY OVR THE
NRN PLAINS.  TODAYS GEM REGIONAL AND THE 19/00Z ECMWF HAD PROBABLY
HAD THE BEST ACCORD IN REGARD TO SPECIFICS SO LEANED IN THEIR
DIRECTION FOR THE MOMENT.  GIVEN THE VERY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW
EXPECTED WITH THE HGT FALLS..AND AVERAGE PW VALUES..1-2+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN..WIDESPREAD HVY PCPN TOTALS ARE LIKELY.

MEANWHILE...CD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND CONTG LLVL WLY UPSLOPE FLOW
FM THE PAC NW TO THE MTNS OF NRN ID SHOULD SUPPORT MDT TO LCLY HVY
PCPN AMTS OVR FAVORED TERRAIN THERE.

...UPPER MS VLY SSWWD TO THE LWR MO RIV VLY...

BROAD SLY LLVL FLOW WILL PERSIST THRU THE CNTRL U.S. AND WILL
SUPPORT AREAS OF SHWRS IN ASOCTN WITH WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY MOVG
THRU THE CNTRL U.S. UPPER RIDGE PSN.  MODEL QPFS UNFORTUNATELY ARE
ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARDS TO PLACEMENT THOUGH IN GNRL THEY
FAVOR MORE ORGANIZED SHWRS INVOF A WEAK FRONT FM NERN MN EWD
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR..AND ALSO OVR THE UPPER MIDWEST WHERE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE AIDED UNDER BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.

KORTY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 21/00Z
 0.01 546183 547161 548150 547142 546114 544106 544094 542087
      541074 539067 538053 536044 535038 533033 531019 529016
      528010 520981 513963 512955 509949 509944 503896 500851
      498841 496831 494822 492816 484801 482798 479799 476802
      475805 462832 459840 458843 458849 456866 448874 444879
      441884 435898 430910 423921 419926 417930 414932 410934
      406933 399931 390923 384924 381929 380935 377940 373945
      370946 369948 367950 366955 364960 362967 361969 361973
      365976 371975 374972 378972 384973 394979 397979 399982
      397988 400990 407990 420987 434983 437983 439985 438989
      436992 433996 430004 429009 428012 429014 431017 436018
      452017 462021 466023 467025 468030 470039 471042 471048
      467063 464080 463091 462095 459099 457102 458106 459110
      460115 457117 453117 452118 454122 451129 447132 438137
      434143 433148 434156 437161 442166 445173 444178 441186
      443191 451194 455193 456191 460186 465183 469182 474194
      475197 475200 470205 460211 455213 448214 444216 439213
      431212 429222 428227 430230 430235 428236 423239 420243
      419250 422252 426251 430252 435250 446254 457250 463250
      467250 472251 483263 486270 490276 495282 497285 500287
      505289 509290 514286
 0.01 456043 453035 449030 447027 443026 440023 438023 429024
      426024 423028 420029 418033 415041 415049 421049 427045
      435044 444044 453044 456043
 0.01 387790 385783 379785 377790 373795 365804 364807 361809
      357815 351823 346834 345846 345854 344860 345868 345873
      349891 352894 355899 363905 367907 372906 371898 370895
      367892 364876 362867 363861 362853 363846 362843 364839
      366834 371823 377811 383802 387790
 0.01 354734 353730 351729 349728 345729 340731 336736 331740
      327746 321761 315771 307782 306785 303787 296792 287795
      279797 256796 252797 251800 248803 248805 249809 251811
      252815 252818 251823 253830 257834 263836 269835 275836
      282837 285838 288843 289872 288880 287882 287887 286894
      287899 286905 287918 285933 281944 279947 279952 281963
      286963 290961 298958 304955 309951 313945 314942 318941
      329938 331934 330930 326924 323919 323915 320895 321878
      337824 339817 339811 339807 340804 343798 349784 352769
      354760 354751 355742 354734
 0.01 372025 372022 370021 362020 362008 357005 352006 348012
      345013 342017 339020 334022 320028 315029 309032 304035
      301040 298044 297053 291062 288068 285072 285078 288081
      291082 295085 300084 307082 313079 321072 324066 330063
      334059 336058 336055 334053 335049 339048 343048 350046
      360038 363036 367032 372025
 0.25 530239 530212 536183 537170 536153 535139 533121 529096
      523071 520058 517046 509021 502003 497992 494980 488957
      484945 484940 487934 489924 490914 490901 490886 489878
      486870 483860 481847 480838 478838 474846 471856 469865
      467877 467888 466900 466908 468913 469919 467923 463970
      459981 455990 453994 454999 457001 463003 466004 469007
      472018 474030 475037 476044 476052 474059 472071 469084
      468093 468102 469108 473110 480107 485107 487111 485119
      483122 478124 475124 470127 469132 466136 462140 457143
      453148 446152 444154 444158 450165 455164 458162 461162
      464164 466167 471171 474175 476181 479186 483192 483198
      480204 473209 468216 469221 474223 486226 491229 494234
      499242 502246 503251 505262 505268 509273 514275 518273
 0.25 459925 457915 455909 450906 446908 440922 435932 432937
      428942 424947 420954 421959 424964 427969 434969 438967
      442962 449950 455939 458932 459925
 0.25 346750 346747 343745 339747 333754 322771 311785 306793
      301801 297808 295812 293814 290814 287813 282815 285817
      289816 291815 294816 296818 300824 301829 303854 302872
      301883 298892 296899 296904 297910 302919 303922 305923
      308919 310910 309897 308887 308880 309875 308870 309866
      312857 314848 317839 322822 327814 332804 337799 341790
      343781 345769 346750
 0.25 278814 277814 274814 271814 271816 272817 275816 277815
      278814
 0.50 523261 525256 526250 526241 526228 527216 527208 528194
      532186 534176 534157 531135 529125 526118 522111 518101
      515083 512062 511054 508043 506033 502022 496010 493003
      491995 488982 486975 483967 478959 476957 473958 471964
      466980 464988 465991 467992 471995 473998 475007 477018
      478028 479036 480047 476063 474075 473085 471094 470100
      471102 475104 480102 483101 487102 492108 492114 490120
      487126 475132 474133 474138 478144 478147 474147 469144
      466145 464147 464153 465157 468163 472167 475170 477174
      480181 489193 491201 490207 486208 480209 476211 473214
      472216 475219 479220 486222 492225 495229 500229 505231
      507235 510246 512256 515262 518264 523261
 0.50 486908 486903 486898 486894 484890 482887 480890 478892
      477895 476898 475902 474907 474910 473912 474916 475920
      475921 478924 479924 482924 483922 484919 484917 486912
      486911 486908
 0.50 341764 341759 339754 337754 335757 327769 320782 312792
      306804 303810 302812 303817 307821 313826 321813 326803
      335792 338785 340779 341764
 1.00 531175 531164 529150 526139 522129 516121 511110 507103
      505099 502100 501107 499111 494122 490131 485138 489146
      492149 496153 498157 499163 501177 504185 508194 512204
      514209 518213 520215 521213 522206 522192 526183 529179
      531175
 1.00 508109 505107 505109 505110 508109 508109
 1.00 496032 496027 494023 493019 490014 490013 488010 486007
      486006 483002 481007 483011 483015 483020 484024 484025
      486028 487030 490032 493034 496032 496032
 1.00 485174 484169 484168 483165 482160 479158 476157 473157
      472158 473159 476161 477163 478165 480168 481172 481173
      483175 485174
 1.00 488090 490086 491081 490077 488073 485073 482074 481077
      479081 477085 476088 476089 475094 476097 479098 482097
      485094 488090 488090
 1.00 486063 486059 485057 482058 482059 482063 482066 485066
      486063
 1.50 528169 528164 527154 526149 524141 519134 513129 507128
      502120 498122 498126 495130 495135 495140 497146 500150
      506160 508165 510175 512186 514190 515185 518181 523178
      527174 528169
 2.00 525169 525164 524154 523149 520144 515139 509138 507137
      504134 502136 501145 503150 506155 509160 512166 516171
      519173 522173 525169

$$