Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 121847
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
146 PM EST TUE DEC 12 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 13/0000 UTC THRU DEC 14/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


...NORTHEAST...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL SEE
SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPMENT NEAR THE MAINE COAST...WITH AN
INTENSIFYING LOW MOVING NORTH INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW/SLEET WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS INTERIOR
CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH MORE OF A SNOW TO RAIN
SCENARIO ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL CLIP CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
DOWNEAST MAINE THIS EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW EMBEDDED
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES RESULTING IN SOME ISOLATED 0.5" IN AN
HOUR TOTALS. MODELS WERE IN CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT A MULTI
MODEL BLEND SEEMED TO SUFFICE FOR QPF. THIS RESULTS IN AN
ADDITIONAL 0.5"-1" OF QPF AFTER 0Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MAINE.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND
ONTARIO. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO A HIGH RES MODEL BLEND FOR THIS
ACTIVITY.

SEE THE QPFHSD (HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION) FOR MORE DETAILS.


...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A SWATH OF SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE ALL COME INTO AGREEMENT ON A MORE INTENSE
SYSTEM WITH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THIS TREND SEEMS TO BE RELATED TO
THE INTERACTION OF TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY TONIGHT...AND THE OTHER PUSHING
INTO MN ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN OF THESE TWO SHORTWAVES HAS
BEEN TRENDING STRONGER...RESULTING IN MORE INTERACTION WITH THE
NORTHERN WAVE. THIS RESULTS IN BROADER AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AND GREATER COVERAGE OF MORE SATURATED CONDITIONS. WILL
ALSO SEE GOOD FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND OMEGA WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE MOVE ACROSS THIS SYNOPTICALLY FAVORED LOCATION.
THUS ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE A BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW...WITH A NARROWER CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT QPF AXIS EXIST...AND WITH SYSTEMS SUCH AS
THIS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SLIGHT SHIFTS RUN TO RUN.
FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/NAM NEST/ARW2
AND THE 0Z ECMWF. THIS RESULTS IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 0.25"-0.5" FROM CENTRAL WI INTO SOUTHERN MI. STAYED AWAY
FROM THE HRW ARW AND NMMB...WHICH SEEM TO BE LAGGING TRENDS AND
APPEAR TOO DISORGANIZED INITIALLY WITH THE SYSTEM.

SEE THE QPFHSD (HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION) FOR MORE DETAILS.


CHENARD

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


24HR QP VT 14/00Z
 0.01 492612 501627 510642 512652 513655 515661 520685 520694
      522708 521731 517738 514742 512747 509752 503758 499763
      496766 492765 481774 476780 471788 460798 452832 450833
      446833 446840 448845 457858 462863 464862 465859 466853
      468855 470859 472863 476862 479867 483873 483879 485883
      489890 498902 504910 509915 513920 518923 524928 527930
      530931 541944 544951 546955 546960 546968 546974 545979
      542984 539990 536992 532992 525992 520987 509978 503973
      499970 494968 492968 491972 493976 497979 508990 513996
      513999 510000 505998 501999 494996 489004 485003 483000
      480994 478990 476988 474989 472990 469994 463994 458988
      453981 447978 441973 438968 438964 435959 431952 426947
      421942 419938 419933 421931 425930 429928 431924 431918
      429914 427905 426902 425897 425892 423890 418896 415898
      411899 407897 404894 400887 393870 391867 391864 392858
      394856 394845 393842 394836 396832 393830 388824 385819
      378817 371817 366816 367814 372810 378804 383797 386795
      391793 396789 401786 403787 415778 422775 424773 423770
      422766 419757 419752 420746 423741 423736 420735 418733
      422731 428727 431725 432720 433714 432707 432701 428699
      421697 414702 412713 412718 411721 407727 401733 398735
      393737 378743 376751 371757 368757 364754 358748 354742
      352736 351731 348729 344735 342738 339737 332732 327729
      325726 326723 331708 332704 336701 339700 342697 368682
      373675 377669 389656 400643
 0.01 477147 476141 474135 470125 466116 466109 465104 458096
      450092 442086 435080 434075 431070 424065 420065 418070
      417076 417081 425098 431108 436115 440125 443130 446133
      457148 461151 466152 470153 474149 477147
 0.01 445152 445147 443142 441138 439134 437130 433130 434135
      435140 436145 437151 439155 443154 445152
 0.01 430125 431121 430118 428112 425107 422101 420099 417098
      410097 408101 412106 416109 420114 423119 426124 430125
 0.01 398818 398816 396814 395816 395819 397821 398818
 0.01 394807 394805 393803 392801 391803 391806 391808 393810
      394807
 0.01 251812 250808 249802 249796 248790 244791 242794 240797
      239802 238807 239813 240817 245817 247813 251812
 0.25 474619 481625 488633 493642 498652 500657 503664 505680
      507696 507709 505716 504722 499732 496736 491738 481739
      475739 472737 463733 456729 450721 446718 445714 446711
      446704 443699 436693 430686 426684 421683 416685 411688
      404696 402706 401713 399717 395719 389722 370731 367732
      364731 361728 353722 349720 348716 358712 364705 367701
      368694 370690 373687 381681 409652 415646 418642 420637
 0.25 478915 478912 478910 478907 477905 475905 474906 472906
      471907 470910 470912 470915 470917 470918 472919 474919
      475917 477916 478915
 0.25 461896 459889 457884 452875 447868 447863 445859 441856
      438852 434844 423827 420824 416827 417842 424862 432885
      441903 451920 455923 458922 458918 457910 457902 461896
 0.25 438763 438758 437754 435753 433754 430756 428758 428762
      429767 430769 431773 432777 433774 435771 436768 437765
      438763
 0.25 425791 424789 421788 417789 416791 414793 414798 415801
      417804 419805 422804 423801 424798 424794 425791
 0.50 461623 465626 468626 476628 479630 481633 484639 484646
      485653 487657 489662 492666 495668 497674 499688 499701
      497712 495716 492720 485723 477724 468724 462718 457712
      456709 456705 458700 459694 455695 447693 443692 441689
      441684 443680 443676 439674 435674 431673 424672 419672
      414674 407679 395691 391697 387700 383703 377709 374710
      373706 376697 377693 380690 387684 394680 397677 401675
      404673 409670 417666 424660 427654 428647 430640 431634
 0.50 445894 444889 443887 443882 442880 440877 438875 435873
      433877 433878 435881 437884 439887 440890 441893 443895
      445894
 1.00 490690 489688 486687 480687 479683 480681 480675 477674
      474677 473680 474690 472695 471703 471709 473711 477711
      482708 486702 488696 490690
 1.00 476656 477654 476651 475649 473649 472650 471650 470651
      469652 467654 466657 466660 466662 467664 467665 469666
      471665 472665 474664 475662 475661 476659 476658 476656

$$





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