Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 261851
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
150 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 27/0000 UTC THRU NOV 28/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...NORTHEAST...

ALL OF THE MODELS SUPPORT A BROAD REGION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
NEW ENGLAND AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW SHOULD LIFT
QUICKLY INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY FOR THE NORTHEAST.
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL FOR THE INTERIOR OF NEW ENGLAND...MAINLY WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. RAIN WITH PERHAPS A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING IS
EXPECTED FOR AREAS CLOSER INTO THE COAST. WPC QPF LEANED TOWARD A
SLIGHTLY FASTER VERSION OF THE 00Z ECMWF FOR QPF. PLEASE CONSULT
THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS.


...LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING EAST COAST STORM...A WELL-DEFINED UPPER
VORT WILL PRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
AND EJECT ACROSS THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEY AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THANKSGIVING. THE ENERGY WILL THEN RAPIDLY CROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE THANKSGIVING DAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MODEST IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE EAST COAST...BUT SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS ALOFT COUPLED
WITH REASONABLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD FOSTER NUMEROUS
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN INVOLVING THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS FROM EASTERN TN/WESTERN NC
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST VA. WPC QPF LEANED TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF.


...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...

A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM VORT WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL
FOSTER NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS...INCLUDING SOME LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW
FOR ESP THE U.P. OF MI WHERE LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE NOTED AS THE VORT CROSSES.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LOW SITUATED OFFSHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG WITH A WELL-DEFINED
PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME INTO THE NORTHWEST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL FAVOR MODERATE TO HEAVY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON THE CASCADES AND OLYMPIC PENINSULA. THIS
MOISTURE WILL ALSO ADVANCE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH
PORTIONS OF THE BITTERROOTS SEEING LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
WPC QPF LEANED BIT MORE STRONGLY TOWARD THE SREF GUIDANCE GIVEN
STRONGER DETAILING/RESOLUTION INVOLVING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


...NORTHERN PLAINS...

A STREAK OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM FOR AREAS OF
NORTHEAST MT AND CENTRAL/WESTERN ND. THE MODELS SUGGEST LIGHT
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE DETACHMENT FROM ANY DEEPER MOISTURE/STRONG
FORCING.

ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 494611 499619 502626 504633 506636 507646 506655 505665
      501671 498677 464730 455745 446757 438766 430778 427801
      429805 432804 435802 436799 440792 444791 448799 452804
      456805 462805 466809 468814 469820 471828 473832 475828
      479824 484826 485829 486834 488838 487843 487850 485855
      484859 484864 481873 480884 480889 478892 475900 470906
      464912 458916 445911 440912 437911 434905 434900 436899
      441894 443893 444890 443888 439886 437883 435878 433877
      429876 426874 421874 418873 413866 412863 411858 411853
      415851 421846 426838 431833 432829 431825 426821 423819
      419818 415821 411819 411817 402800 397801 395804 390809
      379821 377828 378839 381848 384857 386860 386866 387871
      389874 406894 417903 420906 421911 421917 419919 416923
      413924 405924 399920 394915 390908 385903 380898 376893
      360872 346865 345861 346857 347853 347849 343845 341842
      342839 342834 345830 351825 354815 352808 352797 355792
      356773 358767 361762 368757 371754 374753 377755 377758
      373767 374788 370796 374801 376802 379801 382798 388793
      401788 404785 406782 403773 395761 393755 393745 396738
      396728 372716 356723 348726 341724 338721 336718 334711
      335703 338700 344694 350688 358684 364679 377670 388661
      397652 406641
 0.01 553146 552128 549115 548109 546103 544097 541091 533069
      523041 518027 513016 508008 505003 503997 495988 487980
      484977 480976 477974 472973 471971 467971 463975 460979
      457981 456984 455990 455998 456005 458008 459016 459033
      461039 457040 447038 447053 454064 460072 472088 481098
      484103 486108 489114 490121 491124 488126 486127 483126
      473124 470125 469127 469133 457130 454130 451132 451137
      453138 452140 447143 443145 439141 437139 437145 435145
      434151 433156 434159 437163 441167 444172 447175 451178
      449180 447179 442182 439187 437192 439197 442203 442205
      445206 446203 449202 452198 455190 458186 462182 465177
      466173 468173 474172 477175 479180 482185 487189 487193
      486195 481197 463206 461204 458206 455210 449211 445213
      435213 432212 428208 407229 406233 403235 398236 396238
      395241 395247 388271 390278 393282 398286 401287 403290
      420284 432280 435278 441277 458274 465273 467272 471274
      478284 485293 493299 501301 508302
 0.01 458135 457133 455133 454135 455136 457136 458135
 0.01 453103 452099 450095 446097 443096 441097 438093 437098
      434097 432099 434102 434105 437105 438107 437110 439110
      442110 445112 449108 443103 450100 453103
 0.01 433169 432169 431168 429166 429165 428163 426162 426163
      425165 425167 425168 427170 429171 429170 431169 432169
      433169
 0.25 485614 494624 496629 496635 496644 492659 487673 481687
      473699 457721 449731 440741 435746 431747 425744 422737
      415725 413722 412716 412708 408703 404700 399695 397686
      397681 398678 401672 408661 417651 426641 432637 434635
      436632
 0.25 542195 543182 544170 543150 542143 541139 538132 530119
      524112 521110 517110 513111 512113 511124 511130 509136
      505140 502142 498142 492137 489134 485131 479129 473131
      471138 475140 479141 483142 485146 486150 485153 482154
      477153 472152 468151 466154 468157 469162 471165 474166
      476168 496192 494198 491199 485201 478202 474204 469210
      462212 449216 441217 436219 430220 427221 426225 428229
      427233 425234 421234 414236 410244 401257 400261 399267
      402273 406274 409272 414267 424258 430254 436252 441250
      447248 452248 457250 460253 462256 468261 473264 480270
      486275 495285 499288 502288 508287 513283 517275 522267
      523258 523247 522238 522231 522226 527221 532217 536212
      540205 542195
 0.25 503204 502203 500203 500204 502205 503204
 0.25 508086 508084 508083 507081 506080 506078 505076 504075
      504074 502072 501072 501075 502076 502078 503080 504080
      505082 505083 506085 507086 508087 508086
 0.25 507073 508071 508068 507067 507065 506063 504062 502065
      503067 504069 504070 505073 507074 507073
 0.25 491235 490232 488233 487230 485227 482225 481223 477222
      476223 474224 475226 479227 481229 483232 485233 486231
      488234 491235
 0.25 368865 368862 368860 368858 367857 367858 367860 367862
      367865 368865 368865
 0.50 476618 481621 483625 486629 489636 491641 490646 489652
      486663 481675 475686 469695 462704 455713 451717 447720
      441723 438724 433721 431714 429705 427700 423696 419694
      413693 411689 408684 407677 410671 413666 419657 426648
      435640 447628
 0.50 539194 540183 541176 540168 538159 536152 534147 530142
      525139 518147 513149 508149 503146 497145 489136 484132
      481131 478131 473133 474138 475139 481139 485142 488147
      492153 494158 490160 485159 482157 480158 479162 481164
      484170 487175 493178 498180 502184 510194 514198 518202
      521208 527211 532211 536206 538200 539194
 0.50 519265 520258 520253 518244 515234 511226 502212 500208
      496206 487204 479204 474208 468212 461216 454219 453223
      456226 461231 454233 447234 441236 434239 425237 419236
      416238 413245 408253 405258 406263 411264 413262 419257
      425253 432250 439247 445245 451244 457245 462247 469252
      475257 487269 497282 502285 506284 511280 516272 519265
 0.50 497247 495241 492235 490229 486224 479222 473221 469225
      472227 478228 481231 482234 484236 486235 491238 494243
      497247
 0.50 448224 449222 448221 447221 445220 443220 442220 443221
      444223 446224 448224 448224
 1.00 532198 533192 531186 529181 528175 527172 522168 519166
      514165 512168 508167 505166 502168 501172 502175 504179
      509187 515192 519196 521199 524203 527204 530202 532198
 1.00 516264 517259 517255 516249 511235 504225 498213 488208
      483207 478208 474212 473216 474217 481219 488222 491227
      493233 495239 500245 502251 500255 496251 493244 476230
      471232 466234 463238 466242 477249 485258 491268 495274
      500279 503280 506279 509275 513269 516264
 1.00 480647 479640 477637 472631 465631 458632 453634 445639
      439644 432650 427656 421663 420666 419672 421677 424679
      441678 446683 450694 454695 458693 463686 471671 475664
      479655 480647
 1.00 462221 461220 460220 460222 462221 462221
 1.00 428245 428242 426240 424240 422240 421240 419241 418242
      418244 417246 416249 417251 419251 420250 421250 423248
      425247 426247 427246 428245
 1.50 515259 513250 510241 508235 502228 499222 494218 492220
      492225 494235 499241 503248 505255 509262 512263 514261
      515259
 1.50 505276 506270 504264 498255 492245 489241 485240 481243
      480236 477232 472234 471239 475242 480245 483250 489259
      495269 497273 502277 505276
 1.50 488218 487215 485213 485212 484210 483210 481210 479210
      477212 476212 477215 478216 480217 482217 483217 485218
      487218 488218 488218
 1.50 456653 454646 451642 448643 445644 442647 438651 436654
      433659 434663 439661 444661 447661 452659 455655 456653
 2.00 512258 511249 509243 507237 503233 500227 496221 494223
      494228 495233 498240 502244 505250 508256 509258 512258
 2.00 504273 503267 500261 496256 494251 490245 488243 485243
      485248 487251 490257 492261 496267 499272 502274 504273
 2.00 479238 478236 477234 476234 474234 474235 473237 474237
      475239 476240 477241 478241 478240 479238
 3.00 502238 501237 500235 498233 497234 498235 499236 499237
      501238 502238

$$




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