Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 091059
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
558 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 09/1200 UTC THRU FEB 12/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...09Z UPDATE...

THE 06Z MODELS MADE SOME MODEST SHIFTS IN PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AS A RESULT THE WPC MANUAL
GRAPHICS MADE FEW CHANGES FROM THE PACKAGE ISSUED AT 06Z.

...COASTAL LOW DEPARTING NEW ENGLAND EARLY TODAY...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
CYCLONE HEADING NORTHEAST INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.  COMPOSITE RADAR
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED SOME PRECIPITATION WAS LINGERING
OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH PCPN WAS GRADUALLY COMING TO
AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. BY LATER TODAY...ONLY SOME
LIGT PCPN IS EXPECTED IN THE WEST FACING AND NORTH FACING
MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
ME.

...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A BROAD AREA OF HI RH
WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  A MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST FLOW HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WHAT IS STILL A
DISORGANIZED AND COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER COAST.  AS THIS LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED LATER
TODAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS SHOULD FORM AND EXTEND WEST OF THE
LOW.  THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD HELP THE
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES.  THE 09/00Z GFS...NAM AND UKMET WERE MOST
HEAVILY USED WHILE PREPARING THE MANUAL WPC QPF...ALTHOUGH WE WERE
ABLE TO INCORPORATE SOME OF THE 00Z ARW/NMMB TO FOCUS SOME OF THE
HEAVIER QPF.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM -12C TO -21C.
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORS HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN AND OVER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI TO THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT KEYED IN ON THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS
BEING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WE SAW LITTLE REASON TO MAKE
CHANGES THERE.

...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...

INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
FL TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH LEADS TO SCATTERED NATURE OF ANY
SHOWERS WHICH FORM AND FAIRLY MODEST RAFL RATES/AMOUNTS.  WPC QPF
RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS FOR THIS REGION OF
THE COUNTRY.


DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/APPALACHIANS/NORTHEAST...

DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
AT THE START OF DAY 2 /18Z WED...WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION WED MORNING WILL RESULT
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FOCUSED BAND OF PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE
ONGOING AT 12Z WED ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. WPC QPF ACROSS THIS AREA REPRESENTS A NORTHWARD SHIFT
AMONG THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF WITH THEIR 00Z RUNS...BRINGING SOMEWHAT
HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS INTO THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE BENEATH THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
WILL OCCUR ON WED AND THURS. COVERAGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY THURS. UPSLOPE
SNOWS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AGAIN DECREASING BY THURSDAY AS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY.

WPC QPF GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND IN-HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WITH SOME MANUAL
ADJUSTMENTS IN LAKE EFFECT BANDS AS WELL AS UPSLOPE AREAS.


...NORTHERN PLAINS TO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

AN ARCTIC SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK AND FAST-MOVING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ROBUST WAVE ALONG THE ARCTIC
SURFACE FRONT...WILL MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH SYSTEM WILL BE
RELATIVELY STARVED FOR MOISTURE...AND WILL RELY LARGELY ON THE
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND WAVE
WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE LOW/MID-LEVEL SUPPORT TO TO STRONGER
THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE. NONETHELESS...DUE TO THE
FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS...QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT WITH
MOST AREAS RECEIVING LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH LIQUID FROM EACH
SYSTEM. WPC QPF WAS COMPRISED OF A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF ALONG
WITH IN-HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.


...NORTHWEST...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE RATHER SLOW
TO BREAK DOWN -- BUT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WPC QPF REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE IN
TERMS OF TIMING...TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND IN-HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BANN/RYAN


24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 563046 560043 557037 555021 553017 550014 547011 542010
      532006 523002 508993 474976 465972 459969 454969 445969
      440970 436973 435978 434985 438996 434997 432001 428004
      426008 428021 433023 435023 435021 434018 435015 438014
      440016 447022 456025 460030 463034 466037 468042 470046
      475049 481055 491061 495062 498064 505070 509071 510074
      515074 519073 521071 523073 535088 541095 544095 546098
      550097 552094 554089 555081 556073 558054 563046
 0.01 509288 509282 507276 505271 504265 504259 502253 495246
      478244 472243 468244 464245 459244 450247 442249 438248
      433250 430251 426254 427257 429258 434258 439259 443258
      452257 462258 466258 472260 480265 485268 489272 495279
      502287 507289 509288
 0.01 335683 336689 332695 326703 322709 320714 314727 306746
      313775 315792 317798 322795 326795 328792 331787 334781
      338775 344765 347760 351756 359748 363749 367753 371756
      373760 372763 373772 374778 378782 383786 385790 383793
      379798 372805 369810 365813 361817 357822 350831 347837
      341838 338835 334836 332841 333848 332852 329853 329858
      330861 337867 344875 347881 351885 354888 358888 361890
      366892 369887 368879 371876 373875 379873 384868 387865
      388862 389861 391864 391867 394884 395892 398896 401899
      405901 411899 417898 420898 423896 430895 432893 436892
      440895 445894 449895 452900 456906 461910 466913 471912
      474907 476901 486879 486876 489872 492868 496863 498856
      505844 507838 510828 512822 514813 515797 517769 515746
      512726 511721 510718 508706 503689 493667 490659 486654
      480645 471635 469631 467629 466631 460644 458651 456653
      453653 448657 445662 437671 431680 428683 425688 424695
      422699 420700 420692 422685 423679 422670 418664 411666
      405668 399667 389663 383663 379659 372663 366667 360671
      345676
 0.01 447717 446705 445693 442689 439687 433693 430699 426708
      419709 417710 416714 416717 419725 426726 435725 444722
      447717
 0.25 552061 552060 551058 551057 550058 551060 552061 552061
 0.25 550050 550047 547045 544044 542043 539043 536043 534045
      536048 538051 540054 541056 543057 545057 548055 549052
      550050
 0.25 518028 517024 516022 513020 509020 506021 504022 503026
      505029 506032 509034 512034 514033 517030 518028
 0.25 475882 475877 474875 471868 469861 467858 465858 463864
      463869 463873 466881 467888 465895 465903 468900 471895
      473888 475882
 0.25 456842 456834 454830 450828 450823 447819 444817 435814
      431813 426814 424818 425824 429832 432837 434837 439835
      443834 449836 450840 452845 454845 456842
 0.25 451857 450856 448857 447858 446858 445860 443861 445861
      446861 448861 450860 451857
 0.25 426864 426862 424860 422859 420859 419859 417860 417861
      416863 416865 416868 417868 419869 421868 423867 424866
      426865 426864
 0.25 418811 418809 417808 417809 417811 418813 418811
 0.25 408759 407749 405742 403725 401715 397710 395705 391699
      387696 386690 387686 385682 381680 375680 367681 361684
      356687 353691 349697 347701 346708 347716 350722 356722
      360718 367709 370711 371715 373720 373729 376738 381748
      384757 385763 385767 390771 394775 400778 406777 408775
      407771 408759
 0.25 403795 401790 397791 394794 390796 386799 384802 382807
      385809 387808 393810 396807 399803 401800 403795
 0.50 398728 397723 394721 388714 383713 381716 378725 378733
      380738 385745 387750 389753 392754 393752 393745 389735
      390733 392738 397739 398735 398728
 0.50 399765 399763 399762 398763 398765 399766 399765

24HR QP VT 11/12Z
 0.01 536210 537201 535197 530190 526182 520173 517171 514172
      510175 510178 516185 519194 522205 525210 527214 532214
      534212 536210
 0.01 520271 522258 521246 515231 510224 505216 499211 494210
      491209 489210 486213 485217 487227 485231 481231 477229
      473229 467234 463238 457243 444250 440253 434256 426258
      420263 410270 405277 403284 402291 403294 405296 407299
      412301 420303 427307 435309 441307 447305 454301 459296
      464292 467289 471290 476291 480290 493290 497290 504293
      509293 513291
 0.01 534021 534016 533013 529010 524007 520006 517002 510996
      507993 504993 500990 496988 492985 486980 481976 477972
      472969 464964 443952 436947 426940 408925 402917 396908
      390897 386890 382885 380880 376876 368871 363874 361879
      363885 367892 369896 371900 371905 375914 389936 391941
      394945 398949 402952 419971 435983 438983 440986 445990
      456997 473009 478011 482014 494021 516022 527026 530027
      532025 534021
 0.01 508794 507774 504766 503755 503750 501747 497745 492744
      485750 481753 478748 475742 474735 474725 473720 471718
      468714 468709 469707 473702 475697 477694 476689 473685
      470683 467684 460686 449697 441705 437702 437698 439697
      445688 452679 454673 456668 458662 459654 457652 454651
      447653 445655 440657 433660 431662 428663 424657 421653
      419652 417652 406658 398665 391673 387675 383674 377674
      371677 365681 360686 355692 349700 346705 345710 342721
      339726 335730 322750 314762 313770 311776 312783 313787
      314788 322788 327784 342770 348761 351756 357753 364754
      370755 382751 397738 408742 412744 415750 417765 419767
      419771 415776 403781 398786 392790 387792 383797 380800
      376803 373808 369812 366812 364814 359819 357824 356830
      354837 353840 356840 359834 362832 365832 366835 377840
      379846 383850 388849 392846 396844 399845 404848 410854
      412857 412861 414868 418873 424876 438876 444875 449873
      451874 458875 460881 461886 460888 460898 462903 465908
      470907 472905 478895 482889 483886 484881 485872 483863
      482858 480855 480849 477846 478843 481842 483839 486839
      489834 492830 500822 503811 507800 508794
 0.25 516272 518267 518261 516254 513246 510241 502228 498222
      495220 493223 493227 494235 494239 493243 488241 483244
      479249 478252 478256 481262 486269 490273 499282 506284
      510281 516272
 0.25 448276 449274 447271 446272 445272 444273 443274 441275
      441276 440278 440280 438282 438283 439285 439286 440286
      441285 443284 443283 445282 446281 446280 447278 448276
      448276
 0.25 440762 440760 440757 439755 438754 437754 435755 435756
      433757 432759 431761 431764 432766 433768 433769 434770
      435771 436770 437770 438767 439765 439763 440762
 0.25 434780 434778 432777 431778 430779 430781 429783 429786
      431787 433786 433785 434783 434781 434780
 0.25 429788 429784 427783 425782 424787 422792 420795 416799
      416804 419807 421804 423799 425794 427791 429788
 0.25 391711 391706 389704 386700 383699 382694 381686 378685
      375687 372692 366701 359711 353722 351727 350731 356733
      363733 369733 375731 383722 391713 391711
 0.50 515267 515264 515261 515259 515257 514256 514253 513253
      512251 511249 509248 508248 507250 507252 507253 508256
      508257 508259 509261 510262 510264 511265 512266 513268
      515267
 0.50 506276 504271 502267 499263 497260 495256 492253 488254
      489260 492265 494269 496273 498276 503279 506276
 0.50 378705 377700 375700 372702 370704 368706 367708 365711
      365715 366717 370718 373715 375713 376710 377707 378705

24HR QP VT 12/12Z
 0.01 537207 537201 535198 534193 532189 525174 524171 520169
      514166 511164 508161 503155 497150 496148 491147 486151
      484153 483158 482171 485179 491182 497187 507198 512205
      516209 520210 523209 528206 534207 537207
 0.01 546095 544079 540071 536067 532061 529055 524052 521046
      517043 513036 509029 506021 503016 498011 495008 489005
      485000 483994 474982 467971 464966 460959 454949 447935
      443923 438909 432896 427890 422886 416884 410884 404887
      402892 399898 399907 401916 403922 410935 417945 424954
      430959 435961 443971 447977 450983 455996 458003 461008
      469020 473024 476024 478027 482030 486036 490043 493051
      505073 509078 513084 517090 522094 526100 531103 532106
      535107 539108 540105 542105 544100 546095
 0.01 518268 520262 521253 521246 520240 519235 517230 513222
      503206 500203 496202 491200 486200 479201 472207 467212
      463215 459217 452220 448222 446226 444229 440231 432234
      426239 418241 411242 404245 400246 397250 394255 391258
      391261 396262 403260 410258 419262 424268 426271 425275
      424282 426292 427296 430300 433303 438305 448309 457313
      466315 483315 490313 497308 502302 507293 514280 518268
 0.01 474634 474626 471622 460626 453633 448638 444642 436649
      430651 427653 422656 417660 413661 408660 400657 389660
      382662 377665 369672 361679 356687 354692 353696 352709
      353716 354720 357725 359730 359737 362742 371746 380748
      383750 389749 397742 402740 406736 411730 418720 423708
      425706 427705 429707 432706 447695 452698 454701 451703
      444710 439712 435714 430716 427720 425727 423729 423732
      428736 431734 434734 436736 436740 433742 421744 418747
      417753 420761 421768 419773 410779 402785 391791 384797
      381802 379806 380810 382810 385809 387807 394802 399800
      402799 404801 408805 409811 412815 419814 425816 428820
      438824 446829 453833 455835 457830 455825 455818 456811
      457804 458797 457788 457783 455783 450782 447785 445793
      442796 441801 439806 436808 433807 427800 429795 432792
      435790 435787 437781 439775 440767 446759 451748 457738
      459734 460729 459714 460708 464706 469708 472706 474701
      473694 471691 468690 464688 460684 458675 462665 461657
      462654 464653 469646 474634
 0.01 483867 481856 480852 478849 474842 473837 473830 472824
      470823 468824 465829 464839 463842 459844 452843 447846
      445849 442851 438858 438862 440864 447866 455865 459864
      462866 463872 464879 463884 464890 465894 468896 472895
      474892 478885 480877 483867
 0.01 428862 428860 427859 426857 424857 422855 420855 418855
      417855 415856 415858 415861 415863 417865 419865 421865
      422865 424865 426863 428862 428862
 0.25 517265 518258 517249 512238 507227 502217 498212 493209
      488208 483208 479212 480217 481220 482222 481226 475226
      471227 466231 458237 455240 454245 454249 456250 456259
      449270 447276 447280 448283 450286 453287 460288 469288
      474286 479285 490288 495288 500287 504285 508281 517265
 0.25 469856 468853 467853 466853 466856 467858 469858 469856
 0.25 433766 433764 432763 432761 430760 429761 429762 428764
      429767 431768 433766 433766
 0.25 393711 391707 388703 385701 380701 376703 374706 371711
      369714 369721 373723 378722 383721 387719 391716 393713
      393711
 0.50 514266 515259 515253 514248 512242 504225 499216 496214
      491212 486211 483215 483219 486224 488228 488233 486235
      482236 479233 475230 471233 469236 468240 470251 466259
      461268 463272 468274 484273 488275 491278 498281 503281
      506279 510269 514266
 1.00 502272 501261 497250 497244 500245 504247 504244 501235
      500229 497226 495228 495233 494239 490241 487241 484245
      483253 483258 488265 496272 502272
 1.00 477240 478238 478235 477235 476234 475234 474237 475239
      476240 477241 477240
 1.50 493259 493256 493255 493253 492251 492250 491248 491247
      490245 488247 488249 489251 489252 490255 491257 492258
      493259 493259

$$




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