Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 150858
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
453 AM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 15/1200 UTC THRU OCT 18/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST TO THE GULF COAST...

ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS PROGRESSIVELY TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA WHILE ITS TRAILING
FRONT SWEEPS QUICKLY FROM THE CENTRAL ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.  AS
THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...RAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST ALONG ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
TO MODERATE AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE THE LIFT
TRACKS TO THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...VEERING WINDS AND DECREASING MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED TO HELP LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY TO THE
EAST...REACHING THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS BY MON
MORNING.  A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH...FOCUSING DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MAY FUEL SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST SUN MORNING.  THEN OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY HELP TO
BOLSTER LOCAL AMOUNTS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING A HALF-INCH ARE
NOT EXPECTED.

OVERALL GUIDANCE WAS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT.  WPC AMOUNTS
REFLECT A BLEND OF THE THE HI-RES GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE
NAM...GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF.


DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES...

COLD AIR STREAMING OUT OF CANADA IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES.  BETWEEN HAVING A FAIRLY LOW CAPPING
INVERSION...WHICH LOWERS WITH TIME...AND HAVING FAIRLY COOL BUT
NOT COLD TEMPS SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIGHT.

...SOUTHEAST...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. AND THE FL PENINSULA...WITH AN AIRMASS THAT HAS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WARM
SIDE OF THE FRONT.  QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO RAMP UP A BIT ON DAY 3 AS
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSE THE AREA.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS IS DISRUPTED BY A SHORTWAVE COMING
ASHORE NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS DIRECTS A PLUME OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC INTO WASHINGTON STATE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS
PLUME WERE RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.25 INCHES PER BLENDED
TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY...SOME 2 STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. ONCE THIS PLUME REACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.  THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
ACROSS PARTS OF WASHINGTON FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN REGIONS OF UPSLOPE FLOW
IN THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN WA CASCADES.  IN DUE
TIME...ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN ID AND
NORTHWEST MT BY THE END OF DAY 3.  THE GFS WAS GIVEN MOST WEIGHT
HERE IN TERMS OF QPF AND TIMING.  THE ECMWF WAS PROBABLY SHOWING
ITS DRY BIAS BUT IT SEEMED TO BE HANDLING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
SYTEM WELL SO IT WAS GIVEN SOME CONSIDERATION.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

PEREIRA/BANN

24HR QP VT 16/12Z
 0.01 493337 488335 485329 483322 483315 484305 483297 482283
      483273 483265 484257 488251 492248 493243 492240 498229
      500221 506223 509229 512234 519244 527251
 0.01 484615 489619 492622 495626 505641 508650 511660 517682
      519692 520698 520704 521717 521727 521739 520749 517769
      516780 513789 509799 508810 502827 499834 495843 488860
      481875 477880 475885 475890 472892 470897 468900 467900
      464897 462899 454903 446906 438904 434900 433889 432888
      435884 440877 435872 432870 427870 420869 416869 414871
      409872 406875 401880 390892 370917 362928 357934 352939
      341948 331959 321970 310981 305998 302007 301012 300015
      302017 305018 308017 311010 314002 319994 322987 324984
      324980 326975 329974 334973 334978 332980 332984 328991
      328001 326012 325022 321030 317038 313047 302044 293035
      288030 283024 279019 269018 263015 257011 251006 245001
      243998 242994 242984 242978 239976 234974 231972 231962
      233952 236937 238929 238919 239912 241908 243905 249900
      251899 255900 260899 263897 269892 276879 281874 287867
      293862 296861 299862 302863 304862 311859 314852 319847
      324841 327834 330826 333818 333812 334809 334804 336802
      347790 361780 366763 373751 375749 379746 386744 392738
      396732 404717 407710 411702 414696 419690 422685 425682
      429679 428697 429701 431702 435695 442681 449665 456650
      461644 465637 468628 471620
 0.01 544192 540189 535185 528177 525174 522170 519167 515171
      513175 512184 513191 512195 509195 506197 504202 507206
      510204 514204 517205 518209 520214 522216 525219 527225
      532235
 0.01 516025 516019 514014 510004 507993 502985 499983 495982
      492982 489985 487990 487997 489007 491013 495014 500014
      503017 509022 512025 516025
 0.01 503939 501934 494933 492932 489931 482931 476931 472932
      472935 476938 481942 486944 491945 496947 501944 503939
 0.01 436647 434642 427644 419653 416658 413663 408674 403686
      401692 399697 403696 408692 415683 423673 429663 433658
      435652 436647
 0.01 392685 391676 387677 384679 375687 359709 327753 320764
      314768 312770 308770 279768 275764 268762 256768 252773
      255777 260781 263782 266782 270782 273784 277790 277794
      272794 264795 256796 250799 245803 241807 237813 235820
      235829 238834 240835 242834 245829 250816 251813 253817
      257822 263825 268828 295833 303831 308827 307817 311812
      317809 321805 328794 336782 339776 342770 350759 353753
      358748 368739 377729 383718 384710 388703 391693 392685
 0.01 331921 330918 327919 324922 320924 316928 308933 303935
      303931 298931 294935 294941 292946 289950 285953 277958
      268964 265967 264972 263976 264979 265984 267989 272991
      276994 280991 288985 295979 301971 313956 324939 331921
 0.01 297092 294085 290080 276075 274071 274067 274057 274051
      273048 271046 267045 260047 252048 242057 240060 242062
      245066 258074 268083 279092 285095 293095 297092
 0.25 525258 519252 513244 508237 503235 501241 499248 497250
      491255 489260 488265 490278 494285 497297 500295 505297
      506303 506308
 0.25 537215 538208 538202 536196 533192 530189 527188 523188
      521189 521191 521197 522202 524208 527211 530214 535215
      537215
 0.25 512715 512703 511690 509677 506664 505655 502645 499639
      494633 490628 486626 480630 475635 469650 465657 462665
      462674 461683 460693 458703 457711 455717 452725 448731
      445737 440740 433744 428747 425753 424758 423763 421772
      422779 413790 408796 402796 397793 390796 381804 370812
      361822 354832 345843 335852 330857 322861 315863 310867
      297871 290882 287889 286897 283902 278907 273911 266915
      260916 254913 248911 246915 246920 245937 245947 242953
      239958 238965 240967 243969 251968 265962 270959 274954
      274944 278937 286924 295915 303906 308902 312897 317892
      321885 323880 326882 330881 338880 344877 349873 352872
      353876 356877 359876 363869 369856 372850 376844 390822
      395816 396814 400812 407808 414811 420811 423810 424806
      424803 425799 429792 432786 431781 429778 430774 432771
      435769 439767 442766 444765 444768 441776 436790 434798
      433807 430808 429811 429817 434820 440823 445824 447822
      447819 445816 444812 446812 451812 457815 459817 461822
      461833 459853 461863 461874 463878 466879 471875 476862
      483848 489831 494816 499801 503787 506769 509750 512731
      512715
 0.25 429862 428860 427859 426858 425857 424857 422857 420857
      419857 417858 417859 417860 419862 419863 421863 422863
      424864 426864 428863 429862
 0.25 370727 369722 365723 358727 354731 349736 344741 339748
      340751 343751 350747 355743 361738 367733 370727
 0.25 318018 319016 319014 319011 318010 316011 315013 314014
      314015 313018 313020 312021 312022 312024 312025 313026
      314027 315026 316024 317022 318020 318018 318018
 0.25 270011 268007 266003 262001 258000 255998 249997 249000
      253004 256006 260008 263010 267011 270011
 0.25 265819 265817 264815 263813 262811 260809 258807 256807
      255808 254808 253810 254812 255813 256814 257815 259817
      261818 262819 263819 264819 265819
 0.25 258988 257986 257985 255985 254986 253986 251987 250988
      249989 249990 251991 253991 255990 257989 258988
 0.50 524262 518256 514250 509243 505244 500253 495255 492257
      490260 491271 493278 497284 501287 505288 512287 513288
 0.50 508703 506688 504674 502663 499650 494640 489635 482635
      478638 476643 473652 470661 468670 468682 464703 460724
      456732 457738 456744 453766 451777 451781 452786 454790
      456796 462801 470803 473805 474812 473824 473830 474838
      476840 480839 483830 489810 493789 500772 502762 504750
      506740 507728 508715 508703
 0.50 365730 364729 362729 361730 359731 358732 357732 356734
      355735 354736 354737 355739 356738 358737 360736 361735
      363733 365731 365730
 0.50 352842 352846 356840 358832 359832 353839 352841 352842
      352842
 0.50 350862 352856 355848 353849 351852 349856 348857 347858
      346860 345862 344863 344864 343866 344867 345866 346866
      348865 350862
 0.50 316873 315869 310869 305876 300882 298891 297897 295900
      290908 289912 291913 293912 299907 304899 309892 313886
      315881 316875 316873
 0.50 274933 274927 270925 261928 257930 254933 250941 248950
      244958 245963 248964 257962 265959 268957 270954 270943
      273935 274933
 1.00 310877 309885 306891 304891 304887 305881 307877 310877
 1.00 521268 517262 515258 511252 507251 505260 504264 501262
      496260 494260 493264 494270 497277 501281 506280 510278
      515277 519276
 1.00 501697 500689 500681 497665 494651 491646 488643 483646
      481651 479655 477661 474685 468706 466718 467729 468737
      467743 467748 468756 474763 483761 488758 491755 493750
      493743 494731 497719 500707 501697
 1.00 265941 266937 263936 261938 259940 257942 256945 255947
      254952 253954 255954 257953 259952 261949 263946 264943
      265941
 1.50 503275 502274 502272 501270 501269 500267 500266 498265
      497264 495264 495266 496267 496269 497270 497272 499274
      500275 502276 503275
 1.50 492661 491655 489652 488652 484661 482668 481675 481682
      479688 475699 471708 471717 472721 474721 482715 487712
      490707 492702 493696 494688 494681 492664 492661
 2.00 485697 484700 482703 481702 481699 485697

24HR QP VT 17/12Z
 0.01 546183 539171 534166 531159 530156 526154 520154 516158
      511162 509166 507168 502168 497172 495174 498177 506186
      514199 515203 514208 508207 502203 497202 495203 484205
      479208 477212 475217 475222 476225 472229 468235 465244
      462251 458255 455263 451269 446286 440303 441309 444314
      451318 455320 457323 461324 465323 469332
 0.01 550936 550879 549853 547840 546833 544828 542825 539825
      532827 529825 529822 529813 528806 527801 525776 524770
      522768 520771 516774 510773 502775 499777 495779 489785
      486791 483798 482804 482810 485821 490837 490844 489849
      487861 489866 493866 497867 499869 502873 504883 510888
      514894 523908 526915 531921 534923 538923 541923 542926
      544929 547941 549945 549941 550936
 0.01 231969 231972 235972 239972 245972 249971 254969 260969
      265967 268964 270958 271951 272946 273937 273930 276924
      279919 281912 292894 294883 294870 291869 292866 294863
      298857 303854 310845 317835 318833 321833 324838 325847
      323852 324859 326863 330856 333852 335845 341834 348824
      353814 359805 365796 371788 376779 380773 382766 388755
      394746 397734 409716 421699 433678 449658 451653 455648
      464646 466642 465638 459629 450636 449632 442633 414642
      408644 403647 398651 394654 387662 377666 375669 372669
      367673 358682 355686 353692 351698 346703 333718 330723
      326727 321734 319737 316739 310742 303745 298748 287766
      282774 279779 274781 267786 258792 252795 250800 245811
      246817 248825 250830 249837 227869 229901 233930 233940
      232946 231950
 0.01 467704 467702 467699 467697 466695 466694 464693 464692
      462691 462690 460691 462693 462696 463696 464698 465700
      467702 467704 467705 467704
 0.01 479855 478854 477852 477850 475847 473847 471845 470846
      470848 470851 470853 470855 470856 472856 473855 475855
      477855 478855 479855
 0.01 454723 452721 452717 450715 448714 444713 442713 446715
      447719 447724 449726 451726 454725 454723
 0.01 459837 459835 459834 457832 457830 457827 455825 455828
      455830 455833 457835 459837 459837
 0.01 448744 447741 446741 444742 442742 441742 439743 438746
      437746 438748 440748 441750 442750 443750 445749 446746
      448744 448744
 0.01 452806 452804 451801 452804 452806 452806
 0.01 451855 451852 451850 449850 449853 450855 450857 450860
      450857 451855 451855
 0.01 443820 435813 428810 420801 411800 402795 396791 397796
      399800 401800 404799 406801 410803 414807 419809 421811
      426813 435816 441822 443820
 0.01 433768 433764 432759 430759 428757 427758 423760 422763
      424765 426767 428769 430771 431771 433768
 0.01 417657 415653 412655 405664 394681 389690 384699 379708
      377714 374719 370727 363736 363739 366738 368734 373731
      379730 380735 380739 382739 388730 400714 404709 406704
      410695 407686 411676 417657
 0.01 363740 362738 360739 359741 360742 362741 363740
 0.01 271822 271820 270818 270817 269816 268815 266814 264813
      262814 260814 259814 257815 258817 259819 260819 261820
      263820 264821 265821 267822 267823 268823 270824 271822
 0.25 510296 505300 501305 499311 496315 493319 490320 484318
      481310 480297 475295 473290 472283 471279 470266 470251
      470245 471238 474234 478231 482231 484227 482222 481216
      484213 488211 492209 496210 504215 511223 524237 527253
 0.25 542193 537188 532182 528175 524168 519164 516164 514168
      513172 513177 513182 514187 517196 519204 522211 526218
      532224 534226
 0.25 393741 393738 393736 392735 391736 391737 389739 389740
      388742 388743 387744 386747 386748 386749 387751 388750
      389748 390747 391746 391745 392743 393741 393741
 0.25 367779 366777 363776 359781 355786 353791 350796 347800
      345803 345807 349804 352800 355795 358790 362787 367782
      367779
 0.25 343739 340738 336741 330744 325748 317755 310765 296784
      291792 291796 292798 293803 292805 291815 285814 280815
      277814 277817 280820 289829 294828 297825 306816 311807
      315794 317782 319776 322771 327761 330755 334750 343739
 0.25 336797 335793 332794 326797 322803 317808 312813 311816
      314818 318819 320821 322823 325822 330816 333810 335802
      336797
 0.25 307844 307842 305843 304844 303845 302846 302848 303849
      304848 305847 306846 307845 307844
 0.25 276894 276886 275882 273876 272867 271862 267861 266864
      262866 259870 250870 245873 241877 239882 239887 240895
      241901 243913 245927 244933 242937 236948 232957 232961
      235966 239967 242967 248966 259963 262958 261953 261946
      262939 265929 269917 273906 276894 276894
 0.25 264835 265833 264831 263831 262830 260830 260831 260832
      260833 262835 262836 264835 264835
 0.25 257807 257805 256805 254805 252806 253808 254809 256808
      257807
 0.50 525255 519239 515234 511227 506221 500217 496215 493214
      487216 486235 480234 476235 474239 475249 477258 484271
      484281 487285 490287 493295 501293 505290 512288 513289
 0.50 542199 537195 534190 530185 526180 523175 520174 518175
      517179 518183 520191 521197 523205 526209 530215 534220
      536221
 0.50 314779 311777 308782 306789 304795 303800 300806 299808
      301812 304811 305808 307803 311799 312792 313786 313781
      314779
 0.50 293826 293824 292824 290823 290824 290826 291827 293826
      293826
 0.50 269876 268871 266874 264879 259882 256891 253901 252905
      252911 252918 251923 248933 244941 239948 236952 234957
      236962 239965 245964 250963 254961 256958 255945 256935
      257928 255924 260907 262899 263895 265894 266898 268900
      268894 268880 269876
 1.00 524260 521256 519249 513237 510232 506227 502223 496220
      492221 491226 492231 493237 494241 492241 480239 478240
      477245 480250 484255 486261 492274 495278 501282 506282
      512283 516284
 1.00 533203 533201 532197 531194 530191 528192 527193 527196
      527197 528199 528202 528203 530205 531205 533203
 1.00 245960 246958 246956 245954 245953 243952 241952 239954
      238955 238957 238959 239961 240962 241962 243962 245960
      245960
 1.50 522263 519258 517251 514245 511239 508234 504229 500225
      495223 493225 493229 495236 497242 498247 494246 490243
      483241 481242 480246 484250 490263 495274 499277 505278
      516282
 2.00 521268 518267 517264 515253 509241 500230 495226 495231
      496235 501249 500252 498253 494249 489244 483245 489258
      496271 501275 504273 504268 507268 510275 512278 516280
 3.00 499266 499263 498259 496256 494254 492251 490250 488249
      490252 490255 491258 493261 495265 497267 499266
 4.00 495257 495256 493255 492256 493257 494258 495257

24HR QP VT 18/12Z
 0.01 545180 547165 548153 547143 544136 540132 534130 527128
      524128 521130 516135 512130 508128 504130 503133 499138
      495137 493134 485126 478121 474120 473124 471126 472130
      471135 469139 464141 462143 459142 456142 455147 456157
      456162 460164 466163 470169 474170 476173 478175 481177
      487179 489183 491181 493184 492188 482196 476200 472204
      466206 460207 456211 451215 449218 446219 442225 446230
      442236 439243 439248 441249 445251 446255 443262 437282
      435292 435299 438305 440305 443303 452295 458292 460292
      461296 463303 465307 468309 475312 480311 485308 489302
      494296 498292 504289 509285 516275 519267 518258 516249
      514245 516243 525233 531222 535215 538207 543193 544183
      545180
 0.01 551811 551800 550790 547777 543764 540753 535740 532733
      530730 524723 523709 522699 521693 518676 513665 509656
      497636 491630 483633 476643 473647 470653 468663 465674
      461685 460692 461698 464701 461704 456712 454720 455724
      462729 469736 467747 468755 471760 476768 478775 479784
      483794 485799 489803 492807 496810 502814 511817 517824
      525829 530828 533825 536822 542820 548817 551811
 0.01 488185 487184 486184 484184 486184 487185 488185
 0.01 467182 466179 464178 463176 461175 459175 458174 458175
      457177 457179 457182 457184 458185 460185 462186 463186
      464186 465184 466184 467182 467182
 0.01 328748 326744 323745 320742 318739 315738 312738 307744
      302751 296756 291759 286764 280770 274768 269772 266779
      262781 257782 251778 247779 245783 242785 245786 250791
      245797 243803 240811 239816 240820 245827 249831 255834
      264835 269835 271833 275832 277830 274822 279820 284820
      287822 289825 291833 296833 300832 305826 307822 311821
      314815 317808 325775 324765 326758 328748
 0.25 533190 534180 536172 537165 536160 533153 529151 524154
      512155 506157 501160 496163 492168 495175 498180 507190
      511196 516200 520205 525203 530198 533191 533190
 0.25 534779 533772 531769 527764 525755 521750 513741 503734
      497732 493735 490741 488745 489749 497760 499768 502775
      507780 510784 516788 522789 525786 531782 534779
 0.25 510268 512263 512258 510252 507240 507233 508229 507222
      505217 499208 495204 490201 485202 480203 473208 464212
      457218 456224 458227 458230 454233 453238 457248 459260
      462265 468266 471277 473283 476285 478284 482282 485276
      488275 492279 497279 501277 507272 510268
 0.25 490170 490168 489166 488164 486163 485161 483160 482160
      481160 481163 483164 484165 485166 486167 487169 489171
      490170
 0.25 318772 318764 316758 312757 308759 293773 286780 283784
      278786 274786 268787 260793 256795 253799 250803 250807
      259812 261814 263813 262810 267808 272808 282811 291814
      299819 303819 308816 312807 315795 317785 318772
 0.50 529186 530175 529168 528164 525162 521161 517160 513160
      508162 503167 502172 503175 508181 512186 518193 523193
      528188 529186
 0.50 497265 498258 498253 497244 495239 495234 496232 502230
      504223 502218 498211 496208 492206 485206 478207 472212
      465216 464220 465223 470225 469227 467230 463231 458237
      463242 466251 471258 475265 479268 481267 487261 491267
      495267 497265
 0.50 314781 314775 313770 310769 306771 299775 294780 290785
      285789 267793 257803 258805 262805 267804 275805 282808
      288810 293814 300817 306815 309808 311801 314783 314781
 1.00 496221 497216 494212 492212 489212 484211 481212 477215
      474217 478219 481218 485217 488219 493220 496221
 1.00 487246 487242 485240 482238 481236 479233 478233 474233
      471233 470236 470238 471243 472245 474247 477249 480250
      482250 485248 487246
 1.00 472218 471218 470217 469218 469219 471219 472218
 1.00 310792 310788 309785 310782 309778 307776 302778 296787
      288793 284796 281796 276798 274800 279801 283804 291808
      295812 299814 304812 307808 309797 310792
 1.50 308790 304789 298790 293794 289797 283800 287804 293807
      297811 304808 305804 307797 308790
 2.00 303802 304797 302794 301793 299794 295796 294798 292800
      291803 294805 296807 298808 300806 302804 303802


$$





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