Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 201824
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
223 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 21/0000 UTC THRU JUL 22/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHEASTERN/GULF COAST STATES...

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN/EASTERN GULF COAST STATES THIS
PERIOD AS WEAK UPR LOW FORMS ACRS SRN AL BETWEEN SLOWLY
RETROGRADING UPR HI OVER THE WRN ATL AND UPR HI BUILDING OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES.  HI PWS WILL REMAIN QUITE HI IN THIS PATTERN FROM THE
NRN GULF INTO PARTS OF FL AND THE SE WITH GENL LIGHT DEEP LAYERED
SWLY FLOW IMPACTING THE ERN GULF AND SE COASTS.  SOME ENHANCED
LIFT IS PSBL AHEAD OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRC GENLY PUSHING EWD TOWARD
GA/SC SUN NIGHT WHICH ALONG WITH PWS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES COULD
LEAD TO SOME BRIEF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES.  MANUAL QPF GENLY
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND IN HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED
ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH BROAD .50 TO 1.5 INCH AMOUNTS ACRS MUCH OF FL
INTO ERN GA/SC AND SRN NC.


...UPPER MS VALLEY...

PERSISTENT SLY FLOW FROM THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY WILL ALLOW MSTR TO
DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE NRN DAKOTAS
TOWARD MN OVERNIGHT WITH COMBO OF INCREASING INSTABILITY AND LOW
LEVEL WAA LIFT LIKELY SUPPORTING SCT CNVTN AHEAD OF THE BNDRY THRU
PARTS OF CNTL/NRN MN SUN NIGHT.  THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE E/W ORIENTED ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF BUILDING UPR HIGH ON MON
AND WITH THE APCH OF WEAK S/WV ENERGY RACING NEWD IN SW UPR FLOW
FROM THE ROCKIES OVER THE UPR RIDGE DURING THE AFTN...THE
COMBINATION OF THIS ENERGY...AFTN HEATING..AND POOLING OF GREATER
THAN 1.75 INCH PWS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BNDRY WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE LATE AFTN.  SOME ISOLD
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE PSBL OVER PARTS OF SRN ND INTO
ADJACENT AREAS OF MN..BUT EXPECT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO
OCCUR MON NIGHT.  ONLY MINOR LATITUDE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE
MODELS..BUT STAYED MORE TOWARD THE SRN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE..CLOSER TO HIER PWS AND BETTER EXPECTED INSTABILITY.


...NRN CA/NV INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...

EXPECT A GENL INCREASE IN SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS THIS REGION AS A SERIES
OF WEAK IMPULSES LIFT NEWD IN THE INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT MID LEVEL
FLOW BETWEEN LINGERING UPR TROF OFF THE CA COAST AND STG UPR LOW
DROPPING SEWD OVER THE ERN GULF OF AK.  CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
HANDLING OF THE SMALL S/WV DETAILS IN RATHER LOW AND
LIKEWISE..DON`T HAVE STG CONFIDENCE IN THE FINER MODEL QPF DETAILS
OVER THE AREA.  AS A RESULT...HAVE TRIED TO MAINTAIN SOME
CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FCST GIVEN GENLY GOOD MASS FIELD
AGREEMENT..AND BLENDED IT ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.  THE MORE
ORGANIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF .25 INCH OR SO ARE EXPECTED ACRS NW
NV INTO SRN ID/SW MN AND NW WY.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 22/00Z
 0.01 532211 534203 534197 534188 533180 534166 534160 532154
      528145 527137 525132 521109 520098 514097 509099 503103
      501107 498105 493104 491107 489114 490120 493130 496138
      498142 502145 503151 499156 496166 492168 492171 498179
      502183 503189 506193 505200 505213 503218 500222 497225
      498232 500237 500243 501248 503252 503257 501256 493247
      491244 489247 492256 493261 495266 500269 504273 510273
      515267 516253 516238 515232 516225 517217 518213 519210
      521208 522211 524214 527215 532211
 0.01 522879 522873 521870 520866 519863 518846 514837 510832
      502833 498834 496836 491840 487842 483844 477849 470858
      462866 457869 453874 449877 446882 447884 451884 458882
      463881 463887 463895 465901 466904 465907 462912 460919
      460928 459934 459944 460952 461960 459967 457974 455981
      451990 446995 440999 438001 434002 425008 422008 420010
      416015 413017 409021 416027 421029 423027 427027 432026
      436032 440040 441044 439048 437059 435068 434075 434082
      434086 433089 431091 428091 425096 426103 421105 417109
      415111 411113 404111 401111 399113 399117 400118 408118
      411122 413122 416120 420121 421124 421126 419133 404163
      383172 379171 377173 377176 380176 383175 384177 384182
      381185 378187 373186 369191 368195 372195 374193 376192
      380193 383197 385200 383202 387206 398237 402233 405229
      409225 413223 418226 421226 423224 427221 430216 434211
      437204 439199 442190 445178 445176 444171 442163 443158
      446155 448150 453147 461141 464137 469133 473131 477127
      480120 483114 487098 492094 496088 497082 495079 494076
      495073 497069 500065 501058 502049 500041 498035 495028
      493022 493017 495013 496005 498997 499990 499980 493961
      491951 490947 491944 499936 505924 515903 520889 522879
 0.01 486730 485727 483727 478728 467730 462730 455732 445735
      439737 435739 432742 428745 422746 419748 414755 409763
      408767 407770 404771 398770 391771 383763 380760 377756
      371750 365746 359741 352735 346740 339747 336751 333758
      326775 320782 312783 307786 301786 289788 263789 258790
      254793 248797 241802 238806 238810 241819 243822 248824
      254823 258826 269830 276851 277855 277859 275869 275880
      277891 282919 286937 290945 294949 297952 299951 300945
      300942 302940 306942 309941 309937 309929 308922 306916
      304907 307898 307893 308889 310884 312879 316872 323866
      328864 335863 345869 348871 351867 356860 361852 367847
      370844 372841 377832 383823 394817 403813 413812 420807
      424801 427790 431781 437770 439765 445762 454758 464755
      481749 486730
 0.01 487073 485067 483062 483050 481047 478047 474049 473056
      471058 463062 459064 459069 464069 467072 471080 476089
      479089 481085 482079 485075 487073
 0.01 462668 461666 461664 460663 458662 458661 456661 454662
      453662 451663 450664 450667 450669 450672 451672 452674
      453674 455674 456674 458673 460673 461671 462668
 0.01 440229 441227 441224 439223 438222 436222 434222 432224
      430226 429228 428230 429232 431232 432233 434233 436233
      438231 440229 440229
 0.01 417064 414063 411061 407058 404056 402058 398062 396066
      399069 403068 406068 408070 412071 414068 417064 417064
 0.01 406135 405130 403130 401134 397138 393140 391142 389146
      390149 392151 397150 400146 402144 403137 406135
 0.01 391022 391018 385017 373019 364021 354024 345026 339029
      333032 326035 323038 322044 317048 311047 305057 302059
      300060 298058 302048 306045 308040 305037 300033 290033
      280036 277038 275042 274050 274054 272058 264063 256067
      256071 259074 269081 284091 290098 298107 304112 314116
      316114 315112 315108 312095 309092 309087 313077 313070
      315065 319059 323059 327060 333060 337059 348059 357058
      363054 369054 374053 379054 381051 380044 382037 386031
      391022
 0.01 338095 339089 338084 336081 333077 329076 325078 321080
      321083 326084 330087 331090 333095 336097 338095
 0.25 519156 519151 519148 518146 517142 515140 512138 510139
      508141 508146 509149 511151 512153 515155 517156 519156
 0.25 502878 502872 501866 498856 494853 489855 484859 479866
      476872 474880 474886 475890 479892 483892 484895 483898
      480904 477912 473920 471928 470937 469946 467958 463974
      458993 456002 457007 458013 461019 464021 467020 472006
      475997 476993 477986 475967 475955 477944 480939 484933
      499909 499903 499898 497895 498888 502878
 0.25 468110 467107 464105 460103 446099 437107 436114 440117
      441120 442126 440133 436138 434145 434150 436151 440146
      445135 449129 452124 460116 468110
 0.25 427187 428179 427175 424171 426167 426160 423157 420158
      416160 415163 415169 413174 410185 408192 406196 405201
      406205 409205 410202 412198 415194 419192 425189 427187
 0.25 365814 361785 356776 354772 349771 343772 338774 334778
      330783 317797 311804 304807 297807 287807 277805 257796
      252798 250802 250806 254810 256814 259817 268825 276828
      282829 286833 282858 281870 281881 282894 286910 290916
      294915 295910 303885 308865 312854 314847 317842 324837
      330837 334839 337843 341845 349845 352846 353844 356841
      358835 361825 365814
 0.25 297086 296084 295083 294082 292081 291081 290081 288080
      287081 286081 286083 287085 288085 290086 291087 293087
      295087 297086
 0.50 489869 489866 487866 486868 485869 484870 483872 483874
      482877 482879 483881 485880 486880 487879 488878 489876
      489874 489871 489870 489869
 0.50 472959 473957 473954 473952 472951 472952 471954 471955
      470957 470959 469962 468964 468967 468969 469972 471971
      471969 472967 472964 472962 472959 472959
 0.50 470996 471989 471982 467981 465984 462989 460993 458998
      458001 460006 461011 465015 467011 468005 470999 470996
 0.50 358819 359812 357806 356799 355792 351785 345780 340781
      336782 328790 323795 318800 312807 308811 304813 297813
      293811 288811 277812 270812 266811 260807 258808 258811
      260816 264818 272822 291824 293826 294832 290842 287850
      286860 284870 284876 284883 286892 287897 291898 295896
      297893 301882 305865 310843 313836 318831 325827 336826
      346835 351832 354827 358819
 1.00 347796 344791 340790 334791 330794 323800 317808 314813
      310816 304823 307828 311829 320824 329820 339816 343812
      345807 347796
 1.00 302857 301851 299848 296849 294853 291860 290866 289872
      290881 291883 294884 298880 300874 301867 302859 302857
 1.50 339804 339799 337797 333797 331798 327802 324804 323806
      320810 316815 312819 312822 314822 319820 325817 329813
      333811 337809 338806 339804

$$




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