Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 040726
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
225 AM EST SUN DEC 04 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 04/1200 UTC THRU DEC 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND
LOWER MID ATLANTIC REGION...

BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AREAS
WHERE DROUGHT HAD BECOME WIDESPREAD. THIS MORNING A CLOSED LOW
OVER MEXICO WAS REACHING PERHAPS ITS MOST MATURE PHASE...WITH
GREATEST DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION AND INFLECTION IN THE
FLOW...LEADING INTO THE STRENGTHENING OF A DOWNSTREAM UPPER JET
OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE... 500 MB HEIGHT
ANOMALIES WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ ARE
BETWEEN 5 AND 6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. RAINFALL WAS
WIDESPREAD WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN BETWEEN THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER JET AND A SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE WESTERN
GULF COAST. RAINFALL WAS ESPECIALLY FOCUSED WHERE CONFLUENT
DEFORMATION AND RESULTANT STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN
850-700 WERE TAKING PLACE...FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL LA AND INTO CENTRAL-NORTHERN MS...NORTHERN
AL...AND MUCH OF TN. MEANWHILE...THE MORE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICAL PROFILE (ANOMALOUS PWS NEAR 2 INCHES...HIGHER
AVAILABLE DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY...AND WET BULB 0C HEIGHTS ABOVE
12KFT) WILL AGAIN MAKE FOR MORE EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND
HIGHEST SHORT-TERM RAINFALL RATES AND THUS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING CLOSER TO THE COAST FROM THE MID-UPPER TX COAST
INTO WESTERN LA. ALREADY HIT HARD FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL
(LOWERING 1-3 HOURLY FFG VALUES RATES SIGNIFICANTLY)...A MODERATE
RISK FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WILL ENCOMPASS THIS AREA PER
THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
RECOVERY IS OBSERVED WITH THE RUNOFF AND (THUS) SHORT-TERM FFG
WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL...A HIGH RISK MAY BE
NEEDED LATER TODAY (AS LATER SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE). FARTHER INLAND
HAD BEEN MORE TAME...ALTHOUGH STILL DELIVERING A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING TO MUCH OF THE REGION...AND SETTING UP THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LONGER DURATION FLOODING IN THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS.

THE COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW...ALONG WITH THE ELONGATED 850-700
MB FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING E-NE (SUPPORTED BY THE 130-150+ KT JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH)...WILL MAKE FOR AN EXPANSIVE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT (WCB)...WHERE THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL BECOME SHUNTED MORE
W-E WITH TIME AS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE LEADS TO STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE (INCREASED
ZONAL FLOW AND A STRONGER UPPER JET) OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY. THEREFORE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE A SHARPER NORTHERN EDGE TO
THE MOD-HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS FARTHER EAST INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WPC QPF INCORPORATED A BLEND OF
CONTINUITY (PREVIOUS FORECAST) ALONG WITH A NON-NAM/NON-UKMET
BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH ALSO INCLUDED THE WRF-ARW...NMMB...AND
NSSL-WRF. A RATHER LARGE SWATH OF 0.50-1.00+ INCH AREAL-AVERAGE
AMOUNTS IS AGAIN FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF TX E-NE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC REGION.
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS (ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGH-RES CAMS)
WOULD SUPPORT MAX TOTALS AGAIN ALONG THE MID-UPPER TX COAST INTO
SOUTHWEST LA (STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING WITH MORE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICS) AS WELL AS ACROSS EASTERN LA...SOUTHERN
MS...SOUTHERN-CENTRAL AL...AND NORTHERN GA ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED AXIS OF STRONGEST 850-700 MB FGEN.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
(ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES) WILL LEAD TO
GRADUAL LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS DURING
THE DAY 1 PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED EVENTUALLY BY A DUMP OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE UNITED STATES. A BRIEF UPTICK IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE LEAD SHORTWAVE...WITH THE
ENHANCEMENT MAINLY BEING FELT ACROSS WESTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON...BEFORE THE HEIGHT FALLS HELP PUSH THE PW PLUME
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN-CENTRAL CA. THE PERSISTENTLY MOIST
WESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASED ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVES...WILL FAVOR GENERALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS
DURING DAY 1 OVER THE WA-OR COASTAL AND CASCADE RANGES ALONG WITH
THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS CENTRAL-NORTHERN ID...NORTHWEST
MT...AND NORTHWEST WY. MODEL QPF GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...AS CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS WPC QPF WERE
INSIGNIFICANT.

...MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

THE SHARPLY DEFINED TROUGH THAT WILL PROGRESS OUT OF THE ROCKIES
WILL SWEEP UP SOME MODEST RETURN MOISTURE...WITH UPGLIDE ON THE
295 TO 300 K SURFACE OVERLAPPING WITH 12-HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF 40
TO 80 METERS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...WPC IS FORECASTING BROAD 0.10 TO <0.50 INCH AMOUNTS
FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
WPC INCORPORATED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WITH THE QPF...WHICH LED TO A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN IL-NORTHERN IN AS WELL AS
NORTHEAST LOWER MI COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

HURLEY

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 529197 530187 529178 528172 526166 524159 522153 517143
      508125 508091 508082 508076 510072 512067 516062 519058
      522055 526052 524046 522040 520033 521025 518022 512021
      509018 505006 502001 497000 494004 492010 492031 493036
      491043 464070 463076 463082 461086 459084 458081 457074
      457066 451064 448059 446053 446046 445041 441042 443047
      444054 443061 440064 438069 436071 435075 441078 444080
      444083 442084 438088 435089 432089 427085 423083 421088
      420091 422093 422096 422100 418103 409104 405105 402108
      392112 390114 390116 394115 399118 403119 403123 406123
      411125 415129 416135 416142 413148 409151 406152 405160
      409161 413166 415172 414185 408196 408201 405205 403211
      406215 410219 410223 409227 400229 397229 397233 404243
      412250 417254 420259 429265 434269 438270 444272 446276
      446280 447292 448298 449301 467318 477322 480325 482324
      487322 493316 499305 510286 512280 514272 516257 515249
      512242 506234 500224 498221 500217 502211 505206 507203
      510200 514198 518197 524198 529197
 0.01 533976 533970 531965 529961 528956 526946 520941 515938
      512934 509931 503927 506919 511915 512911 512904 513897
      513891 513878 514869 514863 514857 515849 514840 505823
      500817 497811 488795 483789 480783 475777 470770 461759
      457753 453748 444739 432731 421724 408716 399718 392718
      376721 361728 354730 348733 344739 340744 336751 332759
      325771 322775 322779 320788 315804 310814 306820 301824
      290833 284839 279843 270856 269860 270863 273870 276880
      277889 276892 276898 273904 268919 265925 261931 257935
      252939 250946 249951 248954 244961 242970 242980 240988
      244994 246998 245001 246008 249016 252023 252028 257041
      257051 256059 258063 260066 265070 270075 274077 278078
      294082 299083 303080 306073 307063 312057 326035 323027
      322024 322019 324011 327003 330997 327988 333973 334969
      334964 333953 333947 334943 334933 336924 338921 341919
      350908 357898 371891 374889 378889 378892 376895 373903
      372907 372912 373920 376929 377934 379938 381942 385944
      391949 398950 410945 423940 435934 442931 452930 457931
      459933 462935 464940 469960 471967 474972 477973 487980
      500986 511991 519992 524992 526989 531982 533976
 0.01 491196 491189 489185 481184 474185 468188 463193 458198
      459201 462203 464206 466206 472201 478200 485201 491196
 0.01 495120 495115 494112 494102 494094 493084 489089 486093
      482098 480105 478109 479114 482119 485124 488125 490124
      495120
 0.01 446727 444726 443727 444730 446727 446727
 0.01 267804 267800 266798 264796 262794 260791 258789 256789
      256791 257793 257797 257799 257803 259805 261805 265805
      267804
 0.01 260856 258850 255846 249837 247821 248813 251809 251806
      250803 246798 242797 241803 241810 240815 240824 239829
      241836 238840 238844 240846 244849 252857 258857 260856
 0.25 507274 506273 504271 502272 502273 504275 505276 507274
 0.25 496148 491137 487132 483128 478126 471125 469126 469130
      469136 467137 465136 463133 460132 454132 450135 447141
      444142 440141 435142 432147 431152 432157 435162 438167
      443170 446175 446179 443182 442189 444193 447195 450195
      454192 462184 465179 467171 472168 476167 480167 482165
      483158 481153 476150 473148 471145 471142 473141 478142
      483144 491151 495151 496148
 0.25 479218 480214 478212 472211 465212 460212 455214 451214
      446212 442209 438210 434212 431212 427208 426213 422221
      421227 419232 412235 412239 413241 418244 426249 430251
      435251 442249 448249 453248 460246 470248 473247 473244
      471241 466237 463234 465228 468225 474221 479218
 0.25 472845 472835 471826 466811 458804 449799 446799 444801
      441806 438812 438820 437832 440839 444842 449845 448850
      452855 458856 465854 468850 472845
 0.25 454112 455105 455099 453095 448094 444095 440094 436096
      432095 428092 427094 429097 428103 425104 423107 424112
      427115 431118 436117 441118 445118 452115 454112
 0.25 434885 432883 431883 432883 433885 434885 434885
 0.25 431897 428881 423875 419870 416864 412860 405858 400862
      400876 398885 399892 401899 398904 395912 396917 398918
      404921 412921 420920 426917 424910 426907 431897
 0.25 387765 386760 383756 377751 369746 362745 355748 349754
      344758 339764 334772 332781 326799 324808 320815 316822
      311828 299838 293845 287852 282858 280862 280865 287881
      288885 287892 286902 283911 278917 269930 261941 256950
      252958 250966 253974 257988 262005 259008 257013 256017
      256021 261029 264036 266040 266046 268050 272051 274054
      277057 285058 290058 294057 301054 307047 311040 314032
      315023 316015 318003 320991 319981 322960 324938 328920
      331910 333900 344888 349881 354874 360860 367842 371821
      373811 373806 371801 370790 370781 374775 380771 385768
      387765
 0.50 485138 485136 484134 483133 481132 479131 478130 476130
      474130 473131 472132 472133 472134 472136 471138 472139
      473139 475139 477139 479140 480140 482139 484139 485138
 0.50 470218 470216 468216 467217 466219 467220 468220 469219
      470218
 0.50 474158 474155 472153 471150 469147 467145 465143 461142
      459143 457145 456150 456155 457157 459160 463160 466161
      470161 472161 474158
 0.50 456239 457236 455233 456227 459222 458217 453215 449215
      443214 439215 434217 429218 425220 423224 429233 427237
      424239 425244 430245 434244 439244 449243 456239
 0.50 463178 461175 459175 455172 453168 451166 449168 448170
      449175 450180 450185 455185 458184 462181 463178
 0.50 452164 453159 450153 447151 443149 438147 435149 433155
      436158 438162 443164 447165 450165 452164
 0.50 445113 447109 446104 444101 443100 441098 439098 436100
      435100 433099 432102 430106 431110 433112 436114 440114
      443115 445113
 0.50 367764 366758 363756 360755 356757 350762 346768 340773
      337780 334795 332804 330812 326819 322825 313834 306839
      300842 295848 291855 290859 290865 293873 295881 296887
      295892 292898 291906 290911 288914 283920 273931 257952
      254961 253965 254967 258975 261982 264988 267996 269001
      270006 269011 265018 264022 264026 267034 271040 273042
      277044 287043 300045 303043 306040 308033 310021 312012
      314004 316995 315986 315977 316967 318958 321939 324921
      325913 325902 326899 329894 333889 344878 351868 355859
      357852 362834 363826 363815 361805 360795 361786 363778
      367764
 1.00 448224 449219 447218 444217 440216 438218 436219 434220
      431222 432224 435226 437225 441225 443225 446225 448224
 1.00 442110 443108 442107 440106 439107 438107 437109 436109
      437110 438110 440110 442111 442110
 1.00 355837 355832 352831 352825 349809 349801 348798 345798
      340811 337826 332837 329845 326851 322856 317860 305866
      303868 302865 304860 307853 309850 306847 301850 299857
      297864 297868 298870 300868 304882 304892 305897 308898
      315896 318892 325879 328874 332869 343861 347855 349849
      351840 355837
 1.00 312945 314935 312930 311928 303926 301921 298920 296920
      290924 279930 275935 272941 265950 260955 257961 259967
      264970 269974 273979 275995 279999 282004 284007 284012
      283016 281017 276020 272025 271029 273032 277034 281025
      287020 294021 300019 304014 308000 309995 308990 307982
      307973 308966 312945
 1.50 443220 443218 442217 441217 440219 440220 441221 443220
 1.50 346831 345829 343829 342832 341835 339838 338841 337843
      338846 340845 341843 343839 344836 345833 346831
 1.50 330863 329859 326858 320862 315866 310871 307875 307880
      306888 307893 311892 316888 320882 323877 327870 330863
 1.50 305949 306945 305942 301937 297933 292932 286934 282931
      278933 276938 274944 270949 262956 260962 265965 270967
      277967 283969 288968 294965 298962 302957 305952 305949
 1.50 301994 301993 299992 298991 297990 295989 293990 292991
      291992 290993 289993 289995 290995 291996 292998 293998
      295999 297999 299998 300996 300994 301994
 2.00 325864 322864 321865 319867 317868 315871 313873 312875
      310877 311881 314881 316879 318877 320875 321872 323870
      323866 325864
 2.00 296954 297950 296947 295943 292941 287940 283938 281933
      277937 277944 275947 268952 264955 262958 263962 268964
      279963 288962 294956 296954
 3.00 272958 272957 271956 270956 268956 266956 265957 264958
      264960 265960 266961 268961 270960 271960 272958 272958

$$





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