Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 220731
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
330 AM EDT SAT APR 22 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 22/1200 UTC THRU APR 23/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...TENNESSEE VALLEY / LOWER OH VALLEY / CENTRAL-SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS / MID ATLANTIC...

THE SLOW MOVING...LARGELY W-E ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PIVOT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...DEEPENING AND IN-TURN BECOMING MORE
NEUTRALLY-TILTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
WELL CLUSTERED MASS FIELD WISE DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...BOTH
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...WITH THE EVOLVING PATTERN LEADING TO A
MODEL CONSENSUS OF A ~1008 MB SURFACE LOW IN NORTHWEST GA BY 12Z
SUN. THE DECELERATING SYSTEM ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS (UPPER DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH PROLONGED RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION (FRONTOGENETIC) FORCING VIA THE UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC-NORTHEAST) WILL FAVOR A BROAD AREA OF
OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN TN/KY
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OF SOUTHERN
WV...WESTERN VA...AND NORTHWEST NC. THE ROBUST DEEP-LAYER
DYNAMICAL FORCING WITHIN A SHARPENING LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE AND MATURING WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) WILL CONTINUE THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT SAT-SUN NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT...EVEN AS THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DIMINISHES PER THE MODELS. THIS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WHERE THE UPTICK IN
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH MODEST PW AND
MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES WILL FAVOR OROGRAPHIC AUGMENTATION WITH
THE RAINFALL RATES. WPC QPF WAS COMPOSED OF A MUTLI-MODEL BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND UKMET ALONG WITH WPC`S HIGH-RES BIAS-CORRECTED
ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH YIELDED AREAL-AVERAGE MAX TOTALS OF 1.5-2.0+
INCHES ACROSS EASTERN TN... SOUTHEAST KY...WESTERN VA...SOUTHERN
WV...AND NORTHWEST NC. PER THE ARRAY OF HIGH-RES CAM
GUIDANCE...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3-5" ARE ANTICIPATED.

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 540184 540167 537154 534148 533142 534134 532128 528118
      522112 516111 514113 514118 515122 514126 513134 507134
      502135 499140 496146 493143 487133 484129 480126 470125
      465124 462125 457127 456130 457134 456138 453138 451136
      449133 449129 446124 444120 440122 433128 423143 417151
      414154 412160 412162 414163 417163 419161 422157 427154
      435160 438166 436169 434169 429168 427170 429180 424183
      421186 422191 424191 426189 434184 441187 441191 440192
      439197 442198 444201 447200 450197 454194 459191 463189
      463186 461184 462182 466180 472176 479167 481166 484169
      486174 487180 485184 489188 489192 488194 475203 470208
      462211 452214 447216 442216 435220 430221 424219 421223
      419228 415230 411231 402232 393232 382234 382239 388241
      393242 397241 409246 425257 441269 448277 457285 462288
      465289 469289 473286 477284 480279 483276 486277 487281
      490284 495285 498287 503290 508289 512285 515281 520271
      524256 526238 527230 527226 529225 532222 534217 536199
      540184
 0.01 522863 522840 521831 519822 514808 508800 511794 513786
      514783 514778 513768 511761 507756 498755 495756 493758
      490759 489762 485767 483773 479787 477800 472832 467861
      467865 466869 465880 463897 463904 463914 464921 465930
      466938 467949 470964 472982 474994 475005 476013 479028
      482043 484049 486053 493054 495051 495047 496038 495029
      494022 498026 501029 504029 504026 506018 506007 506999
      506989 506968 506949 509931 512916 518887 522863
 0.01 500695 499684 496675 489673 487664 479656 473653 468651
      462649 457649 444653 437655 434660 430667 426673 418684
      414691 411698 407702 403706 400708 397706 394696 391690
      387684 384680 379677 372676 367678 358685 350697 345712
      342727 338740 328764 324775 323782 318786 311788 305792
      302793 299797 298800 298803 300808 304810 307810 315809
      317807 320806 325802 331799 335803 336808 337812 336822
      335828 331839 328845 323851 318855 312859 302865 297870
      294876 290888 285898 281905 277910 275914 273921 274925
      275927 274936 274941 276943 283943 288941 291942 290947
      288952 285956 283961 285964 287965 290964 292962 295957
      298951 300949 304949 314946 319943 325939 336930 340927
      345925 352921 355920 359920 362922 362927 364929 364934
      367940 369941 371939 375934 380938 386939 391941 396927
      396917 395907 394889 394879 394873 395869 397852 399838
      402804 406768 406759 408753 412739 414731 416726 422712
      425706 430702 437700 442697 446696 449697 450700 448704
      437713 438716 438721 437727 439730 441732 443733 447732
      472721 478717 484716 489714 493708 497700 500695
 0.01 495158 494156 492153 491150 489150 488149 486147 485148
      484149 483149 481150 481151 480152 479155 480157 482158
      483158 485158 487159 488159 490159 492160 493160 495158
 0.01 475084 473081 468083 465082 463079 462072 460068 457066
      457062 456059 454061 451059 453055 451054 450057 447056
      444053 438047 437042 434040 425043 420035 417033 412032
      406032 402030 393029 389029 387034 385042 385046 382048
      376048 371047 367050 363047 361049 363052 368052 373052
      377055 381056 384058 386056 389055 392055 395057 398057
      401056 404058 406056 405053 402053 399051 395050 394046
      396044 401045 404047 412052 416051 420053 423065 425067
      428066 432065 434067 433070 433077 433081 435083 438083
      440079 443075 448077 470096 473093 471089 475084
 0.01 472031 471026 471021 468018 466021 464028 462030 459032
      455035 452037 455039 458040 462038 465038 469036 472031
      472031
 0.01 427208 426203 421202 415205 411209 408213 405217 400222
      401226 405227 407225 411223 415218 418213 423210 427208
 0.01 426089 425084 422081 422079 420076 417076 413071 412068
      408068 403070 405072 408073 409077 413080 418083 421088
      426089
 0.01 397073 398071 398069 396066 394066 394068 394071 396071
      397073 397074 397073
 0.01 283781 283772 281766 276763 271761 265760 258762 249768
      242777 237787 234792 232797 230808 231825 234838 237843
      239849 242863 244868 249872 254873 259871 263867 265861
      266855 265847 264841 266836 268830 272827 276815 277809
      276803 274799 275795 278791 281786 283781
 0.01 283999 282991 279985 277977 274974 268970 261968 255968
      250970 244973 240978 237983 236991 239997 244001 250003
      254007 256010 259012 263015 271015 275011 278004 280003
      282000 283999
 0.25 525158 526156 526153 526150 525150 524148 524147 523146
      521145 520145 518145 517145 516148 515150 515153 515154
      516156 517156 518158 520159 521159 521160 522160 523160
      525159 525158
 0.25 511260 512254 512250 510244 507236 505231 502223 500217
      498213 495212 489211 483210 477212 473216 473218 476218
      484221 488226 492238 486237 483237 481234 480230 477228
      473227 468230 462230 457234 453236 447236 443237 442239
      447242 454243 460245 467245 478252 484256 487262 494274
      498279 500281 504283 506282 508276 507269 506265 508262
      511260
 0.25 471666 469663 465662 459660 453658 445659 439663 434669
      433674 434678 437679 441678 449677 455674 461671 469667
      471666
 0.25 462226 463223 462222 460221 459221 457221 457222 458224
      460225 461226 462226
 0.25 396763 396759 394754 393750 392745 392736 392728 390718
      388712 385707 379705 373705 364707 360711 357716 352729
      348740 347748 349752 353751 357748 362743 365739 369738
      369741 368747 365753 364755 359756 355760 353766 352775
      353793 352806 350814 348821 341831 336843 333856 330861
      326866 316874 309884 306889 304894 302902 303912 302919
      303928 303931 306931 310928 318920 328912 334910 340907
      345904 349899 360894 373890 381881 384876 387870 389863
      390856 392839 393822 393814 394805 395799 396791 396763
 0.25 385904 386902 386899 386897 385896 384895 383895 381894
      381895 380898 379900 379902 378904 379907 380908 382908
      383907 384906 385905 385904
 0.25 265784 265777 263772 260770 256771 251777 246784 241790
      238797 236807 235812 236818 238828 242837 245846 247855
      249861 252864 255862 257858 257852 255848 255842 257838
      260831 261821 265802 265784
 0.50 504276 503268 501261 498255 496250 493245 489241 484243
      486249 488254 491261 494267 497272 502277 504276
 0.50 504244 504239 502233 500227 499224 496220 492217 487216
      487220 491224 492228 493233 496238 498242 501246 503245
      504244
 0.50 481244 481242 481239 480237 480236 479233 478231 476231
      475230 473231 473232 471233 470235 470236 470238 471241
      473243 474244 474245 476245 477245 478245 479245 481244
 0.50 391789 390773 388761 387748 385737 383730 380725 376729
      375734 375741 374747 370754 364762 361765 358770 357776
      357782 357792 355806 352816 349825 344833 339843 339847
      341853 341859 340865 336874 334878 330882 325881 321881
      318884 316888 314892 314898 314906 313911 317913 320913
      333902 340894 347888 355883 361878 379873 383864 385854
      389803 391795 391789
 0.50 263782 263778 261776 258776 257778 255783 252788 247790
      242795 239800 238806 237812 238820 240826 242831 246837
      250836 254832 256826 258813 259807 260801 262788 263782
 1.00 478238 477236 477235 476234 475235 474237 475239 477239
      478238
 1.00 387799 387791 385785 379775 376771 372768 369768 366771
      364774 359796 357810 354821 351832 349836 348842 345848
      348854 347859 345864 343870 343874 348872 354871 363867
      370860 374856 377852 381842 382836 382829 382814 387799
 1.00 255810 255805 254802 251797 246796 243800 241805 240811
      240818 243823 245826 249826 252821 253816 255810
 1.50 383800 383794 381790 376787 372780 369782 367786 365794
      363800 360809 359816 359823 358827 355834 354842 353853
      354857 357859 362856 367850 370844 372835 373826 375816
      377810 383800
 1.50 253810 252806 251804 249802 246801 244803 243805 242809
      241811 242815 242817 244820 246821 248820 250818 251815
      252812 253810
 2.00 378798 377795 375793 371793 370795 368797 367800 365804
      364807 363809 364814 368811 369809 371808 373806 376803
      377801 378798
 2.00 363843 363840 361841 361843 361844 363844 363843
 2.00 251808 249806 247806 245806 245807 244809 243810 243811
      243813 244814 244815 246816 248816 249814 250812 250810
      251809 251808

$$





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