Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 140707
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
306 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 14/1200 UTC THRU AUG 15/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...USED A BLEND OF 04 UTC NBM WITH WPC CONTINUITY AS STARTING
POINT FOR MANUAL CORRECTIONS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...

...SOUTHWEST...

MODELS AGREE THAT A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL CONTINUE A DECREASING MOISTURE TREND.
ACCORDINGLY...CONVECTION MAY FOCUS TODAY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM TO
SE AZ/SRN NM IN THE LEAD AXIS OF MAX LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY.

...S-CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY....

DIGGING IMPULSE ENERGIES THROUGH AN S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS HAS
FIRED ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN AN AXIS OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY OVER
NRN TX/SW OK. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO SLOW WITH DEVELOPMENT...BUT
LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST CONTINUED ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS/REFOCUS DAY 1
IN THE WAVY FRONTAL ZONE AS ENHANCED IN ADVANCE OF THE
MCV/OUTFLOW. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH MODEL SPECIFICS AND LEAD
IN MASS FIELDS...BUT HAVE FOCUSED HEAVIEST QPF POTENTIALS DAY1
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS N TX/SRN OK INTO THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY IN A
REGION OF BEST SUSPECTED INFLOW/INSTABILITY/LIFT.

...CAROLINAS/S-CENTRAL APPALACHAINS AND SERN US/CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES...

LINGERING IMPULSE ENERGY WITHIN A SLOW TO DISLODGE CAROLINAS TO
SERN US/CENTRAL GULF COAST DEEP MOISTURE AXIS WITH PWS AOA 2
INCHES SHOULD AGAIN FIRE CLUSTERS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION DAY1 IN A
REGION OF FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET LIFT AND
INSTABILITY ALONG THE SAGGED/WAVY TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE.
PREDICTABILITY OF SPECIFICS OF CONVECTIVE FOCUS IS AT OR SOMEWHAT
BELOW AVERAGE.

...NRN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN AND ...

NWRN US MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH AND LEAD MOISTURE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MODEST PCPN POTENTIAL OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN GREAT
BASIN CONSIDERING SUPPORTING FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME LOCALLY MODERATE
AMOUNTS OVER FAVORED TERRAIN.

...N-CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

IMPULSE PASSAGE WITHIN A NRN STREAM TROUGH AND UPPER JET SUPPORT
FAVORS ASCENT AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. LOWER LEVEL SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION WITH AN
AXIS OF ENHANCING PW VALUES INCREASING TO THE 1.25-1.5 INCH RANGE
OVER THE ERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THIS IS FUELING INCREASED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY RECOUPS LATER PD
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH UPSTREAM SYSTEM APPROACH AND FRONTAL
ZONE LIFT.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SCHICHTEL


24HR QP VT 15/12Z
 0.01 555086 553080 550077 543068 537061 530054 525049 518043
      515040 512039 509037 506038 502036 499033 492027 487025
      483022 477014 471007 467001 460994 453987 447980 442970
      437959 435947 433939 436936 440933 447931 455933 460934
      465933 474930 486916 492910 495901 499890 501875 501866
      502860 501842 500836 499828 499811 497796 496790 494786
      492783 492778 492772 493767 492754 493750 493742 492734
      492728 493723 495727 501738 504741 509740 512738 513732
      514724 513715 511697 509680 507672 505665 501655 498652
      497652 494661 492672 491684 490697 490704 488704 488699
      485690 483685 481680 479676 475674 472678 471683 470689
      470698 470713 469726 466738 466752 467757 468764 470776
      472781 472789 475801 476814 477847 478860 477867 476870
      474873 470876 461880 457881 456879 453881 447882 444882
      443880 439868 441862 443858 444854 447854 452853 460848
      461844 461837 455834 447833 443836 442840 440844 438845
      436842 432845 428846 425850 420858 418863 417870 414880
      414895 415899 414904 412908 405931 405935 403938 402942
      396944 391944 386945 381943 375937 370931 367923 363914
      361910 359904 362894 365881 369873 371869 372865 374854
      379843 380837 382832 386822 391814 394805 399799 408794
      414789 417785 416784 413781 409784 405785 403787 400788
      396789 393789 391787 388781 382787 378791 375792 373788
      372780 372772 374768 387752 389747 393744 398736 403729
      406721 412704 418685 420673 422663 421655 418650 415650
      410651 401657 392663 385670 380674 378677 375681 373686
      370695 368707 368716 368720 367723 363730 356748 343763
      339770 334777 324793 319800 316803 311804
 0.01 311804 258790 251807 253814 255816 261821 263825 265831
      273835 277836 278841 279852 280860 281864 284867 288866
      291865 293867 292872 292879 290883 290888 289891 286901
      285904 286909 289918 292925 298931 301934 305931 311927
      316929 319933 321936 323940 326954 326967 326974 324979
      321990 318000 318007 319011 315019 313024 310027 304025
      300026 298029 260067 259073 260077 262082 265085 273090
      282094 290097 296098 299101 309111 315116 321121 328119
      333114 336115 339118 340123 342127 347126 350126 351123
      353118 353113 352105 354100 353096 349094 340077 335076
      331076 325082 318085 313085 310083 309077 310071 315064
      320056 329061 332062 335061 338058 340055 343051 347050
      347046 345046 341042 341035 344023 341013 339008 339002
      344995 348992 353991 360989 365986 371981 374978 379979
      386984 390986 397987 399988 399992 398998 396007 395013
      394020 394034 393042 390045 385047 383050 375055 373066
      372077 375082 378084 385082 392080 398074 400070 402065
      404058 406054 415050 421051 423053 426053 428053 428056
      426061 425070 423075 420078 414102 407109 401113 400116
      402117 407117 410116 413118 417119 421118 424116 429116
      431119 431126 429130 425134 419139 414144 408154 407159
      408164 411169 415171 417172 417174 416182 416188 418190
      420191 424188 427185 429180 430175 431167 433162 435150
      436143 433142 430144 429140 431137 436132 451128 457122
      461114 462108 462101 460089 458083 458078 461075 467070
      473069 478070 483072 485077 491085 497091 501093 502097
      501100 501107 502113 502119 503122 507130 510136 514130
      519121 521115 524113 528111 532114 536116 536113 535106
      538104 547101 551096 551093 549091 553089 555086
 0.01 528180 528175 527170 524163 520155 516149 510145 506145
      504148 503160 504164 507167 512171 518175 524180 528180
 0.01 519064 519063 518062 517060 516061 517064 519067 519064
 0.01 504052 504050 503048 503047 502045 500045 499046 499049
      500050 501051 502052 503053 504052
 0.01 436768 436761 433756 432757 429762 427765 426770 423775
      422780 422784 424787 428786 431781 432778 433773 436768
      436768
 0.01 418036 417034 415034 414036 415037 417038 418036
 0.01 313992 312990 312988 310986 310985 308985 307988 306990
      306992 306994 305996 305998 305000 306001 308001 309001
      310000 311999 312998 312996 313994 313992
 0.01 274075 272073 271071 269071 267072 269073 271074 271075
      272076 274075
 0.25 523097 524092 523089 521086 519085 517082 515081 511081
      508081 508086 509091 510094 511097 513099 517100 520100
      522099 523097
 0.25 491068 489067 489068 491069 491068
 0.25 487048 488045 487043 487042 485041 484040 482039 480039
      479039 478039 477040 476041 476044 477046 477047 478047
      480048 482049 483049 485049 487048 487048
 0.25 455110 456105 455101 453099 450098 443097 440097 440095
      442089 442086 439085 436090 436097 438105 439112 441118
      444120 448119 451114 455110
 0.25 457042 457036 455031 454025 454022 454015 453011 448003
      443996 440995 438999 437011 435023 437033 438038 439045
      441050 443049 446049 451049 454047 457042
 0.25 454918 453915 453912 453910 452906 450903 448902 445903
      441904 440906 441911 443913 445914 447916 450918 452919
      454918
 0.25 448077 449075 448073 446070 445071 444072 444074 443077
      444078 446079 448078 448077
 0.25 433907 433905 431906 431907 431909 433907 433907
 0.25 431914 429913 428914 426916 424919 424920 426920 428920
      428919 429918 430916 431914 431914
 0.25 430987 430980 428975 425970 422966 419952 417947 414947
      405954 401955 398956 397959 395964 395968 397974 400978
      407984 413986 419986 423987 426988 429988 430987
 0.25 409686 407680 404675 399674 396675 393678 388686 385697
      381708 379712 378719 378724 380727 389725 393723 396719
      402711 405701 409688 409686
 0.25 410003 410002 408001 406001 405003 404004 404005 403006
      402007 401009 401012 401014 402016 402017 403016 404014
      404013 405012 406010 406008 407007 408006 409005 410003
      410003
 0.25 388806 387801 385800 380804 379809 376813 369815 366813
      366809 365798 357791 356788 358783 362778 364772 370763
      370757 368755 364757 357763 354766 351771 345780 337787
      333789 330794 328799 325804 323809 323816 320827 322831
      322834 326842 330844 334842 335839 333836 329839 326835
      326830 329825 332821 337819 340817 342818 339831 339834
      342833 343839 341845 338851 336854 328862 320867 318874
      321877 329874 332878 336879 339878 342875 345877 349872
      351866 358859 359852 361847 367840 370838 371835 373830
      377821 388806
 0.25 362954 362946 361941 357930 352923 349919 348914 346907
      347901 351892 351885 349881 345882 340884 336886 333890
      331901 327924 328935 331947 332953 333959 333967 332971
      332978 334981 339983 344982 350976 355967 362954
 0.25 348811 348810 346811 345811 344814 346814 348812 348811
 0.25 335019 335017 334014 333012 331014 331016 330019 330021
      330022 332022 334021 335019
 0.25 323104 324100 323098 322095 318094 316095 314096 311098
      309100 310104 312105 315107 319106 321106 323104
 0.25 313043 314041 313039 313037 312035 310035 308035 306036
      304037 303038 303040 304041 305042 306043 307044 309044
      311044 313043 313043
 0.25 307051 308049 307048 306047 305047 304047 303049 302051
      303052 305053 307051 307051
 0.25 304833 303829 299828 296825 293826 291831 290837 289841
      290847 292851 295854 300855 302850 302844 303840 304834
      304833
 0.25 302080 300076 299071 297067 293065 288065 284066 281070
      283073 287075 290078 294080 299082 302080
 0.25 303909 303907 304905 304903 303901 302900 301899 300898
      299899 298899 297901 296901 295903 295906 295908 295909
      295910 296912 297913 299913 301912 302910 303909
 0.25 266804 266802 265801 264800 263800 261800 260801 259802
      257803 256805 256808 257809 258810 260810 262810 264809
      265806 266804
 0.50 402687 399681 395680 392684 389689 389698 390704 387710
      387714 389715 394712 397707 400701 402695 402687
 0.50 416977 416973 415970 414968 412966 410966 408968 405968
      403966 400966 401968 402971 403973 406975 408977 411977
      414978 416977
 0.50 362803 361803 360801 359803 359805 360807 361805 362803
      362803
 0.50 359772 358771 357771 355772 354773 353774 353775 354777
      355776 357775 357774 359772 359772
 0.50 358954 357947 356941 352930 344924 340923 335923 333929
      333936 334949 336962 335975 340977 344975 348971 350967
      352962 355958 358954
 0.50 298836 298834 297833 295834 295835 295836 295838 297837
      298836
 1.00 350952 350948 349945 348942 346939 345937 341938 340941
      339943 338947 338952 338956 339958 342960 345962 346960
      348956 349954 350952

$$





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