Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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470
FXUS04 KWBC 020917
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
416 AM EST FRI DEC 02 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 02/1200 UTC THRU DEC 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1


...WESTERN GULF COAST...

AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST REGION TODAY
WILL LEAD TO A MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO
LATER TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE MERIDIONAL AND EVENTUAL CUTOFF
NATURE OF THIS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE SLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THUS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND (POTENTIALLY) FARTHER
INLAND.

AS FOR THE DAY 1 FORECAST (12Z FRI-12Z SAT)...INCREASING UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL COUPLE WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER DIVERGENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD
(TONIGHT) ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST...THOUGH GIVEN THE BREADTH
OF THE UPPER JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S....THE MODELS ARE NOT WELL
CORRELATED IN TERMS OF THE PINPOINTING THE AREA THAT WILL BENEFIT
THE MOST FROM THE COMBINED FAVORABLE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
DYNAMICS. THIS IS PART OF THE REASON WHY WE CONTINUE TO SEE A
DISPARITY IN MODEL QPFS...INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION CAM
GUIDANCE...THOUGH SUSPECT THE OTHER PERHAPS MORE SIGNIFICANT CAUSE
IS DUE TO THE VARYING DISTRIBUTION/GRADIENT OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY PER THE MODELS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. THE NAM AND GFS ARE FARTHER INLAND WITH MODEST
DEEP-LAYER CAPES (AOA 1000 J/KG)...AND AS SUCH IS WETTER WITH THE
QPF NW FROM THE COAST INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. THE ECMWF
MEANWHILE IS HEAVIER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TX...MATCHING ITS MORE E-W
ORIENTED INSTABILITY AXIS. IN ANY EVENT...A ROBUST WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL ULTIMATELY ENSUE...TAPPING THE SUBTROPICAL PW PLUME AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WHILE ALSO DRAWING IN COPIOUS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY NSSL-WRF) IN FACT DEPICT MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
BANDS IN A SE-NW FASHION...INDICATIVE OF STRENGTHENING
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE TRANSITION FROM UPRIGHT CONVECTION (HIGHER
CAPES AND NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES) ALONG THE COAST TO
POTENTIALLY MORE SLANTWISE CONVECTION FARTHER INLAND. TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD (12Z SAT)...PW ANOMALIES WILL HAVE INCREASED TO
2.5-3.0 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL TX...WHILE 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES CLIMB BETWEEN +3
TO +4 OVER THE SAME AREAS AS THE 850 MB SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO 40+ KTS.

IF NOT FOR THE INSTABILITY...THE STRENGTHENING...DEEPENING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT INLAND TRANSPORT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE TIGHT CAPE GRADIENT
ALONG-JUST OFFSHORE THE GULF COAST...WILL CONTINUE TO BE MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE >1.00 INCH 24 HOUR
AMOUNTS...AS EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF INTERCEPT. TO THAT END...WPC
FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY (PREVIOUS FORECAST) WITH A
COMBINATION OF THE 00Z HREF MEAN AND IN-HOUSE HIGH-RES ENSEMBLE
MEAN. THE RESULT WAS A SLIGHT INLAND EXTENSION OF THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS (0.50-1.00+ INCH) ACROSS SOUTH TX...THOUGH NOT TO THE
EXTENT OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WHILE MAINTAINING AN AXIS
OF HIGHEST TOTALS (1.5-2.0+ INCHES) ALONG THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TX
COAST.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

PRECIPITATION MAY NOT ENTIRELY SUBSIDE DURING SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVER WESTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN IN
EARNEST ON FRIDAY AS ROBUST ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ARRIVES. ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT...THE
GFS CONTINUES ITS TRICK OF DISPLACING THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE
AND UPWIND OF THE TERRAIN FORCING. THIS COMMONLY OCCURS IN THE GFS
AND DOES NOT LOOK PHYSICALLY SOUND...AND MAY BE IMPACTING OUR
ENSEMBLE TOOLS. SO WE LEANED TOWARD THE SREF MEAN FOR
QPF...SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS REFORECAST DATA BASED ON ANALOG
EVENTS...WITH SOME SPOTTY TOTALS EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES IN THE
OLYMPIC RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

DOWNSTREAM...TROUGHING WILL DIG THROUGH THE WESTERN
U.S...EVENTUALLY CLOSING A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT LOW LATITUDES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONTAL SURGE AND HEIGHT FALLS
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION EXCEPT AT VERY HIGH ELEVATIONS...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEST. HERE WE USED A BLEND SIMILAR TO THE
ONE WE USED IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...INCORPORATING SOME OF THE
SREF MEAN...BUT USING A MAJORITY WRF-ARW AND THE PREVIOUS WPC
FORECAST...HITTING ONLY THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH AMOUNTS GREATER
THAN 0.10 INCHES. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE LATE DAY
1 AND INTO DAY 2 OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.


...GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST...

RELATIVELY COOL AND HUMID LOW LEVEL AIR...SUPPORTING AN UPPER
TROUGH IN THIS REGION...WILL PROMOTE A REGIME OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ALSO IN THE WEST-FACING
UPSLOPE AREAS IN PA/NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE LACK OF STRONG/DEEP
CAA WILL INHIBIT ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT-MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE 24 HOUR AREAL-AVERAGE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TOTALS EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.25-0.50" OVER THE
FAVORED SNOWBELTS AS PER A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HI-RES MODELS
GENERALLY OFFER BETTER DETAIL AND ACCURATE PLACEMENT IN THESE
REGIMES...SO WE LEANED TOWARD THE WRF-ARW AND SOME DOWNSCALED
VERSIONS OF OUR IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE TOOL. FOR MORE INFORMATION
REGARDING THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
QPFHSD.


DAYS 2 AND 3...

...TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

A PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS EAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE
WEST WILL CLOSE OFF AND PARTIALLY CUTOFF FROM THE FLOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF
THIS CLOSED LOW. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASED AND
PROLONGED ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...ALONG WITH INCREASED DEEP MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE...WITH
INTEGRATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. TO GO
ALONG WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALSO EXPECTING THE AREA TO REMAIN
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET HELPING ENHANCE LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THE EVENT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP
INCREASE AND MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WITH CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WHERE IT WILL INTERACT WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY 900-800 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE OVERALL FLOW
DOES NOT NECESSARILY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SLOW MOVING OR
BACKBUILDING CONVECTION...WITH CORFIDI VECTORS FORECAST TO REMAIN
GREATER THAN 10KTS THROUGH THE EVENT. THUS MOST OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MOVING OFF IN A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AT A DECENT
CLIP. HOWEVER THE STATIONARY LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
PROMOTE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRAINING OF THIS CONVECTION. THUS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE A LONG DURATION EVENT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER CONVECTION ENHANCING RAINFALL RATES.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON DAY 2 (12Z SAT-12Z
SUN)...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL SHOWING A VERY SIMILAR AXIS OF
3-6" OF RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX INTO NORTHWEST LA.
GEFS AND ECMWF PROBABILITIES ALSO HIT THIS SAME REGION WITH DECENT
PROBABILITIES OF 3"+ OVER THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. LIKELY WILL HAVE A
PRETTY TIGHT NORTHERN GRADIENT TO THE HEAVIER TOTALS...WITH
AMOUNTS FALLING OFF RAPIDLY ONCE YOU GET NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT
INTO MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR. INTRODUCED A MODERATE RISK FOR OUR
DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TX INTO
NORTHWEST LA. THE GOOD GLOBAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT FOR
3-6" ACROSS THIS AREA IS USUALLY A GOOD SIGNAL FOR A HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT. THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ANOMALOUS
PWATS/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALSO
SUPPORTS A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE
PROLONGED RAINFALL SATURATING SOILS...MAKING IT EASIER FOR THE
EMBEDDED HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RATES TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD ISSUES
ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY THE INITIAL MOISTURE SURGE PUSHES EAST INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. ALSO THE CLOSED LOW WILL
FINALLY APPROACH TEXAS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF RESULTING IN ANOTHER UPTICK
IN CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. MODEL SPREAD DOES INCREASE BY THIS PERIOD AND IS RELATED
TO HOW QUICKLY THE CLOSED LOW PROGRESSES EAST THOUGH TEXAS. MOST
OF THE 0Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT SLOWER AND MORE IN LINE WITH
WHAT THE GFS HAD BEEN SHOWING. ALTHOUGH STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF
ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MORE MODEL
FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE NEXT DAY. WPC DAY 3 (12Z SUN-12Z MON) QPF
USED A COMBINATION OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET TO FIND A MIDDLE GROUND
CONSENSUS. LIKELY TO HAVE A WIDE SWATH OF 1"+ FROM EAST TX INTO
THE SOUTHEAST. LIKELY TO HAVE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (2-3")
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION
SHOULD GENERALLY BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE LACK OF A LOW LEVEL
FOCUSING MECHANISM SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL
COVER THE THREAT WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED A SLIGHT RISK EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS MARGINAL IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASED IN AN AXIS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN ON DAY 3 (12Z SUN-12Z MON) IS BACK
ACROSS EAST TX INTO LA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE APPROACH OF THE
CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW AND RESULTANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/COVERAGE BY LATER SUNDAY.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA ON
DAY 3 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 2-3" OF
RAIN (LOCALLY HIGHER). GIVEN THIS REGION WILL LIKELY SEE A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL BEFORE THIS SATURATING SOILS...MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK ON DAY 3 AS WELL FOR
PORTIONS OF EAST TX AND/OR WESTERN LA. BUT GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON THE AXIS OF CONVECTIVE FOCUS ON DAY 3 AND EXACTLY WHERE
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL WILL BE GREATEST...WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE AND
JUST GO WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR NOW.

...NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE WESTWARD FACING SLOPES OF THE COASTAL
RANGES/CASCADES/BITTERROOTS WILL RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND AS STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND
BROADLY CYCLONIC MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOP. WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT A MULTI MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR QPF ACROSS THIS REGION.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

HURLEY/CHENARD

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 528250 530234 534225 537212 539210 540206 540202 538188
      534179 528170 526164 523160 517153 511149 503145 495138
      488133 480126 476123 471122 468122 469118 471115 471108
      475106 474104 472103 469099 469093 466096 466100 465102
      463104 460103 456102 455099 454092 456088 460077 461070
      459064 459059 456056 453058 452062 450067 447071 443069
      439071 441074 444077 447082 448086 445087 443089 446092
      448093 449096 444099 432096 429093 427094 431102 430106
      427105 423105 419107 424108 444116 444119 442123 443125
      439132 436136 435142 434150 436154 443161 446166 445175
      431183 427186 426189 435191 445191 450193 453190 457185
      460181 463178 465172 468170 472174 476178 479182 478192
      476198 473200 467206 463203 458202 456209 452211 444213
      438212 434215 427219 424222 426227 429229 433230 437230
      440233 437236 433237 428239 426243 423247 420254 420259
      421262 422263 432266 435264 437263 439266 443272 456287
      463294 468297 472297 482296 489293 498291 505293 510296
 0.01 539124 539118 538114 534106 530098 528094 524091 521091
      519092 512096 508095 508089 503082 498076 492071 488070
      485072 485078 486083 495097 501114 505122 508125 511127
      520129 525129 527128 536129 539124
 0.01 493687 491681 487682 482689 479692 477686 472686 468689
      465691 463690 459687 453680 451678 449679 450686 452691
      453698 448704 446708 442710 435717 432720 434725 422729
      420733 424733 429734 432732 437731 441732 445732 445735
      443736 435738 417744 415749 415753 417756 417760 416766
      413775 405783 402786 398787 392792 387794 385798 381801
      378806 379810 382809 383808 391802 399798 404795 406799
      408806 409810 411816 413819 417820 419819 423808 423801
      425795 426797 427801 427809 428814 431820 436828 438830
      441828 446829 448831 449836 448839 446841 443844 441849
      439854 436860 427857 425851 424849 421850 417856 415862
      415868 417870 421870 432869 436866 442865 447864 452862
      454860 457861 460865 464875 465881 465888 465898 467900
      469897 473887 475882 475879 473879 471881 470877 469871
      466857 465849 463844 459837 455833 453828 452824 451818
      451803 452797 451789 448782 444781 441783 438784 436782
      436777 439773 443765 451750 452744 453738 454732 457728
      475726 478715 483707 486703 489697 493687
 0.01 418102 419098 417097 414092 410094 406098 406102 404106
      402108 398108 395112 390114 386118 381121 377125 374130
      384127 388125 392121 397117 401116 414113 418102
 0.01 420053 418050 416050 415052 414054 414055 416055 418053
      420053 420053
 0.01 224060 225066 227071 233079 237082 241087 245091 252093
      261096 269097 282101 286104 291108 296113 297115 296119
      295121 297123 303122 312118 318117 323113 324111 325106
      322105 324103 334100 338100 340096 342093 337088 335086
      339085 345083 347077 343073 342071 342068 351066 355064
      358067 361073 359078 357080 353083 352087 357089 360089
      363088 366087 369088 370092 369097 365101 364105 366108
      364114 362114 358115 354115 353115 350119 348123 349128
      351128 355127 359123 362121 366123 365122 365117 366112
      370106 380096 382093 385095 386090 389089 389087 386083
      399078 402077 403074 402070 405068 406072 408073 412072
      412068 410066 407065 407062 411061 412059 411056 406051
      400049 392049 387047 381048 376049 374047 370046 361049
      358049 358046 356039 354035 356032 360028 363023 364016
      365010 364003 361994 360991 359988 360985 361978 362974
      363969 359956 356945 354938 350932 344921 341915 337912
      332906 327903 320900 314900 306900 299901 282912 275914
      272915 270913 267908 262904 260903 255902 250902 247903
      244905 242909 242928 243933 244941 246956 248966 251973
      255978 257983 261987 264990 264994 262995 259994 253993
      244993 240993 238994 238004 240008 245010 249014 254017
      261017 265019 271022 278023 283028 283031 281033 272043
      269054 267056 264056 256056 250054 243052 239050 233048
      227050 225052 225056
 0.01 404123 402123 400122 400125 402123 404123 404123
 0.01 282786 278785 273788 270789 271783 270777 267772 265767
      266761 262759 257759 253762 250767 241785 237793 235798
      234804 232814 231820 232826 230830 231837 240833 244831
      247827 251817 257822 257818 256817 254815 257814 260811
      263807 263804 263802 266801 272800 276797 279793 280788
      282786
 0.25 524260 519251 514241 503220 499211 495207 490204 480204
      471208 464213 457219 453232 444236 442240 442245 444251
      446256 453263 462271 470277 475281 479282 487278 492276
      497277 514286
 0.25 529210 531203 531195 528185 524176 522173 519171 517171
      514172 509170 504170 500173 502184 505188 509191 516198
      521205 527212 529210
 0.25 496174 496171 494168 491166 490165 486162 485161 482160
      480162 478162 478165 480168 482170 484171 487174 489175
      492177 494176 496174
 0.25 466705 465704 464705 463705 464706 466705 466705
 0.25 464715 464713 463712 461712 460711 459711 458711 456712
      455713 453715 453718 453720 454721 455720 457721 459720
      461720 462718 463716 464715
 0.25 451726 452723 450722 449722 447724 446727 444727 442727
      441728 442728 444728 446727 448728 449728 451726 451726
 0.25 448744 447741 444744 442746 439746 436744 433749 434756
      433761 437761 440757 440752 445749 446746 448744
 0.25 442815 443812 442810 442809 441808 440806 438807 437808
      437811 438813 439815 440816 442816 442815
 0.25 422794 422792 421789 420792 420794 421795 422794
 0.25 420799 421797 420795 419797 419799 420800 420799
 0.25 376071 376070 376069 375066 373065 372064 371064 370063
      369064 371064 372066 373068 373071 373073 373075 374078
      375075 376073 376072 376071
 0.25 349004 348995 343988 339980 336976 332973 329971 328968
      326957 324945 321937 317928 315925 312922 307920 302920
      297920 292920 274923 264926 259926 255928 253931 252936
      253948 254953 256958 259961 263963 266966 267968 270978
      272982 273989 273997 273001 276003 283008 293011 298017
      301024 305033 307037 310040 320043 323046 325049 325054
      327058 332058 334054 334049 336045 335040 333037 332026
      333021 338020 342018 345015 348010 349004
 0.25 327074 327072 326071 324072 322074 321076 320078 321080
      323079 325079 326077 327076 327074
 0.25 286085 285080 282074 278070 273068 260064 248061 243059
      235059 232063 233067 234069 243076 251083 260088 274092
      278092 284091 286085
 0.50 522262 517254 513245 508235 502228 498218 494214 489211
      486209 481208 473211 466216 459222 459226 461228 464231
      456238 453246 455253 459257 466262 474270 477272 482273
      489268 493269 496272 501274 505274 511278 516281
 0.50 502259 499247 496244 492238 489228 488225 485223 479221
      474221 469223 466226 464228 464231 473229 477230 481235
      489239 494248 500257 502259
 0.50 438758 437756 435757 435758 435759 437759 438758
 0.50 340006 341002 340999 334997 319992 313983 311979 312975
      316969 319956 320951 319948 312945 309941 308933 306929
      304927 295928 289928 283931 276933 271937 268939 267937
      264934 260934 257936 256939 258942 263943 266946 270951
      274957 275961 274966 272972 274979 277986 279995 304002
      307007 313011 316012 319011 325008 335009 340006
 0.50 273077 272073 267071 264069 258067 255067 249066 245068
      247070 249073 252076 256078 260080 264081 269081 272078
      273077
 1.00 519271 519266 518262 516260 515258 512256 510254 508254
      508257 509262 509264 510268 511271 514274 517273 519271
 1.00 507248 507244 505242 502239 501237 500234 498232 496229
      494225 493230 494233 495236 497239 499241 500243 503246
      504247 507248
 1.00 495265 497263 496260 495257 493254 492251 491249 489246
      488244 485243 484248 486251 487254 489257 491260 492262
      495265 495265
 1.00 480244 481241 480240 480239 479236 477234 476233 474233
      473234 472235 472236 471239 472240 472241 473242 474243
      476244 478244 480244 480244
 1.00 301977 299974 298970 299966 300962 299956 299944 297939
      294936 291935 288937 286941 285946 283950 284954 283960
      281964 278969 276974 279977 282979 283981 284987 289987
      293987 296985 299982 301977
 1.00 279949 280947 279946 278945 277945 277947 277948 279949
      279950 279949
 1.50 294964 295956 294947 295944 294940 291941 290943 289952
      287957 285962 281968 280970 283972 287972 292968 294964
 2.00 290962 291960 292958 290956 288957 288958 287960 286962
      285964 285966 284966 285967 286968 288966 289964 290962
      290962

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 483338 486337 488334 494324 498312 502304 508297 512290
      519271 522260 526249 532225 531220 534215 537207 540197
      541192 540186 537177 532169 531165 528159 525157 522154
      513141 510139 506137 499138 494137 491134 485128 467121
      471105 469102 466102 460104 457105 455103 454099 452095
      447094 439096 432099 426105 425106 424111 426115 428116
      429119 429123 434124 440122 448124 456120 455118 455113
      458111 461115 461121 460126 454131 452134 450138 437148
      435153 437158 441166 444174 445180 443186 447187 451188
      455186 460183 463179 463175 465172 468171 472173 481176
      485178 488181 489190 487194 484197 478200 471203 464207
      459207 456209 450213 442214 436217 429218 426219 423222
      425225 425231 423246 422269 421280 425288 437298 440310
      445322
 0.01 542990 542984 539979 535971 530966 525962 521962 517960
      512960 509961 492962 474962 470963 467963 459961 454961
      453966 458973 463976 469981 473983 474989 472998 471011
      471017 473020 476029 479034 480038 480049 482060 483064
      481067 479072 480076 480080 483085 488091 494092 498090
      501086 506083 509080 510076 514064 516052 521047 528045
      533040 535035 533030 532025 534022 537013 537008 536004
      534995 537993 540992 542990
 0.01 491884 492875 491868 484863 479862 474862 468855 465853
      462854 458842 455843 451842 449841 445843 442848 437847
      435845 434847 438859 440863 443865 447864 452865 455864
      460862 463867 464873 468878 466883 468897 470902 472902
      474900 473896 474892 476892 478895 480892 491884
 0.01 483872 482870 481869 479870 479872 479874 481874 483873
      483872
 0.01 464708 463698 458699 455702 449708 445707 442708 439712
      437718 435724 431726 428729 428732 436734 438739 434744
      429745 424744 420744 418748 420759 418762 417767 421770
      417771 414772 416774 414776 409777 406780 401788 407792
      412801 413807 412812 414816 417820 421815 423810 426810
      430813 432817 434821 439824 446829 449831 452829 453826
      453821 441805 436805 433802 427798 427793 427789 429786
      434778 434772 435767 436763 439759 442756 448754 453745
      460726 464708
 0.01 461935 461925 460923 458922 449914 434899 424895 415893
      410891 405890 400889 397885 391874 389867 388864 387859
      383847 380834 374824 372819 368815 360812 355810 351812
      344814 340816 337817 336819 332824 324833 321837 317840
      310845 307848 304852 297859 294864 293866 290868 286868
      285870 280871 274873 272876 272879 272886 271892 269898
      269907 269922 266933 262956 262984 261001 258011 256016
      255023 251032 245041 239048 232055 233060 234062 234066
      234069 234073 237075 241077 244085 247095 250105 260110
      270116 282121 290125 281119 274112 269108 266103 267097
      268094 271094 275096 281097 288099 292101 298104 302108
      307111 310107 314104 318105 325100 331095 336091 339087
      345079 358059 361052 362045 365031 369020 370014 371006
      371001 374999 380992 396977 400972 405968 412961 428948
      435943 439941 445940 455937 459937 461935
 0.01 447075 446072 445071 443071 442072 443073 444075 446076
      447075
 0.01 425700 425698 424696 423694 422693 421692 420691 418690
      416690 415690 413691 413692 413694 413696 414697 415698
      416699 417700 418702 418703 420703 422703 423702 425701
      425700
 0.01 431862 429859 429857 429855 429854 427855 425855 424855
      424858 424860 424862 426862 428864 429864 431862 431862
 0.01 395793 395791 394791 393793 391794 389794 388794 388795
      389797 390797 391797 393796 395794 395793
 0.25 528196 529192 528187 528180 524170 520166 516163 510161
      506161 500161 495158 487152 483150 480149 479146 488146
      490143 489138 485134 482131 476131 472133 470140 461142
      458147 459154 461158 466162 472163 477165 486169 501186
      507194 510198 514201 519202 523200 528196
 0.25 516267 517262 517257 516251 513237 504213 501208 497204
      492201 489202 483203 478205 471209 462214 454218 456231
      453233 450239 450247 452253 457264 462268 467267 471264
      474260 478255 483255 490263 495267 497272 501276 505275
      516267
 0.25 367925 367919 367914 365903 363893 361885 361874 360864
      354849 350842 347840 343839 338840 335842 329846 323859
      321865 319873 316880 312888 309890 307886 303878 301876
      297875 294881 292887 288893 286900 285906 286911 284921
      281928 278936 277942 276951 276960 276980 276986 275989
      271997 271005 269010 270015 275028 279044 280054 280059
      277060 270058 265057 263058 246057 242058 240061 240065
      242068 247072 254077 260079 267081 279081 285080 288084
      291086 299088 306088 312085 316080 324068 326059 331054
      342044 346037 348031 352015 357996 358984 358973 359963
      359955 361945 362936 364929 367925
 0.50 516182 517180 516178 515177 513179 514181 516182 516182
 0.50 496226 497221 497218 494212 491209 486206 478208 469212
      461216 457219 459222 463227 465228 465232 463238 466239
      470236 467232 469226 472223 477222 482223 489224 494226
      496226
 0.50 484242 483241 483240 482237 481235 480234 479233 478232
      477233 476234 475235 474237 474239 475242 476245 478246
      479246 480246 481246 483245 483244 484242
 0.50 482161 482159 480158 479160 480160 482161 482161
 0.50 485138 484136 482135 481135 479135 478137 479138 480139
      482139 484139 485138
 0.50 472158 472156 470154 469153 467153 466154 467156 467157
      468158 470159 472158 472158
 0.50 355930 356922 355914 355900 354886 352874 346864 342859
      337860 328863 323873 320885 320889 318893 315897 306915
      303919 299923 291930 285937 282941 281945 279953 280961
      280977 283987 284992 283997 280009 279017 280023 285031
      288041 291053 290062 289067 289073 291077 297079 302078
      312074 317071 320066 320059 318054 316052 319052 325050
      333045 335037 338033 340028 341021 339008 342996 345981
      348968 351958 354943 355930
 0.50 302893 302891 302888 300887 299889 298890 298891 298893
      297895 298897 299897 300897 301895 302893 302893
 0.50 269075 268070 267066 264063 259062 253061 248061 244062
      245066 248068 252071 256073 259075 263076 268077 269075
 1.00 486215 485214 484212 482211 481210 479210 477210 476211
      475212 474214 474216 475217 476218 478218 480218 481218
      483218 485217 485215 486215
 1.00 471218 471217 470216 468216 467217 466219 467221 469220
      471218 471218
 1.00 348903 347893 347888 345886 340883 336884 334886 327897
      321907 314921 308931 303935 296937 290940 287945 283949
      283959 282968 284974 285977 289979 292980 293984 295991
      295996 294000 296003 300002 302000 310991 315988 319982
      326971 335961 338957 341951 346935 347929 347919 348903
 1.50 481216 481214 480212 479212 478213 477215 478216 480216
      481216
 1.50 343917 343909 343901 342894 338895 334895 331900 326907
      320916 315925 310934 307937 303940 293944 290947 288952
      285957 284963 285969 287972 297970 299972 300979 304982
      309981 316975 323966 328958 337941 341928 343917
 2.00 339919 339912 338907 334904 331906 321920 316929 312935
      305941 297945 290950 288958 286962 287967 292967 296966
      301966 305968 306978 313972 319967 324959 328952 332944
      336936 338926 339919
 3.00 332930 332922 328921 321928 316935 308942 301948 296951
      296955 299958 305960 310961 312962 316960 318956 321953
      327945 330940 331934 332930
 4.00 327939 326935 323936 318939 314941 309945 305949 301954
      303956 307956 312955 316952 321947 324943 327939
 5.00 315947 314945 313945 312946 310947 308949 307951 306952
      307952 308953 310952 311952 312951 313949 314948 315947

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 528191 528182 528172 526161 524150 522145 520138 516129
      513123 511120 503111 500107 499100 497084 495072 494043
      494025 496005 497999 497992 494990 490990 483000 480004
      478009 472031 470038 469046 464058 460068 457071 453075
      443069 441072 443077 448084 448087 446088 442089 436089
      433089 431087 425081 421069 424063 423058 419059 412058
      406056 404058 401066 399071 399076 407082 408089 406093
      404100 400104 396106 392112 390117 390121 391123 398130
      410134 412140 409146 402152 402158 403164 407173 408178
      410179 415184 413192 411197 410204 408208 411211 410215
      403214 404219 408224 405228 400229 397231 396238 397241
      396246 396250 397252 404259 419271 422273 425278 430287
      437297 440300 445303 463317 474322 482324 487322 490319
      494316 497310 502301 505296 507290 511284 512276 515270
      516262 517250 521239 521235 519236 514237 511233 510226
      521210 525201 526193 528191
 0.01 534968 528952 525944 524940 524935 525928 526920 526899
      526886 526880 527877 527870 522865 518860 518850 514830
      509824 504819 496809 481791 477785 474780 470773 465768
      458756 454750 450746 446739 440735 433737 430738 427740
      424741 421740 416737 409730 404727 396728 378732 347737
      344739 342743 338750 332761 327770 320781 313792 309804
      304818 301825 296829 275846 265853 262856 260862 253892
      252900 250906 246919 242935 238948 237955 240959 243962
      245968 247985 243990 238993 238996 243002 251011 252014
      252018 251027 249035 249043 250057 256065 266072 276078
      283082 290082 306083 313079 318076 325065 332058 337044
      337034 339025 340021 338019 332015 330013 330009 334003
      340991 346976 348969 348962 347958 347953 354952 367950
      393945 408942 416940 424940 443940 447940 450942 454947
      457952 459957 466967 491972 500973 502975 506976 518981
      522981 523978 527975 533971 534968
 0.25 501275 502269 500266 496262 493259 492255 489250 486243
      481241 475237 472236 473233 476232 478229 479221 483214
      482211 478209 472208 459206 454209 449210 445209 439211
      429214 424219 421224 419229 417231 413234 412237 412240
      416245 430250 438252 445254 451257 455261 461266 467268
      478268 483268 486274 490279 494280 501275
 0.25 493150 494144 494140 492135 489127 486123 481112 479104
      478097 475090 474084 473081 472084 470090 468098 467107
      463121 461126 459127 454128 450132 447138 443143 439141
      435140 434143 432150 433158 435162 443171 446177 444183
      443188 445191 448196 460195 464192 467187 474177 478172
      482168 487158 489153 490152 493150
 0.25 457113 457101 455097 452094 443095 434095 431093 427094
      429099 427104 424108 423115 431118 439118 444120 450120
      457115 457113
 0.25 368842 368835 367831 364822 360817 359815 358810 356801
      356792 354781 350774 342771 339770 336771 329783 323798
      321806 319815 317823 314830 305840 298843 292848 287853
      285860 285867 286873 289881 287888 287898 284906 280912
      276918 272925 262954 257971 257976 258979 261984 264992
      265998 264002 260006 261013 264020 270025 275029 276033
      273035 270038 269042 273046 278051 285053 295054 303053
      307051 309048 313043 319036 322029 323020 322014 327994
      325985 323979 317979 318975 322969 328956 335941 342928
      347921 350914 354899 357891 359880 362865 364858 366853
      368842
 0.25 312981 310981 308981 310981 312981 312981
 0.50 475217 474213 470213 463213 449214 442214 437216 425222
      428229 430233 428236 422240 422243 425245 438242 455247
      462248 464241 464233 466228 468226 473222 475217
 0.50 485138 484134 483133 479131 476129 475128 472128 470130
      470135 470138 473140 477140 480141 482140 485138
 0.50 479162 480157 479154 474151 466142 460140 455142 453149
      450151 447149 442147 438145 437146 435150 436155 439159
      443163 448166 449174 451180 450185 456189 461187 466182
      471170 474165 479162
 0.50 447111 447107 446104 445101 443100 439099 437100 434102
      433104 433109 434112 436113 440114 441115 443115 446114
      447111
 0.50 355859 355842 352830 351821 350814 348807 346803 343796
      340793 336789 332792 327801 324812 320824 316833 310842
      306846 301848 294849 291852 288856 288862 291868 294872
      297877 296882 298897 297904 296908 290918 288922 285925
      281926 279929 276932 271940 266950 263962 263966 264973
      270980 273984 279986 286986 292985 300979 306973 314964
      319958 331940 337930 342921 346910 349899 352885 354873
      355859
 0.50 322001 323995 320993 317990 313990 297991 291993 289995
      284001 279006 276009 273011 271013 271017 278020 290030
      291035 288037 286040 286044 289046 293048 297049 302049
      304047 305042 304038 308037 311036 314034 315022 314018
      314013 319007 322001
 0.50 281043 281041 280039 278040 277040 276040 277041 278042
      278043 280043 281043
 1.00 466157 466154 465152 464151 462151 461153 462154 462156
      463157 465157 466157
 1.00 452220 450219 447218 444217 442217 438219 436220 434222
      437225 441225 444226 446225 448224 450221 452220
 1.00 345842 345828 340822 336821 332824 326828 322831 319834
      315841 309859 303853 299852 296853 293856 294860 300865
      305867 306872 304881 302891 302901 288934 280938 275943
      271952 270962 270967 272972 274974 279975 287971 296970
      304966 310961 316954 320947 325940 330933 334924 337915
      339904 340893 339879 341871 343855 345842
 1.00 310028 309026 308025 307025 306026 306028 308029 310028
      310028
 1.00 309011 309010 307010 306011 305011 304013 305015 307013
      309011 309011
 1.50 340847 340842 338840 336838 333839 330842 329845 328852
      322865 319868 318864 319860 321854 322847 319845 318849
      313863 311870 311875 314876 317874 319874 326876 330874
      334868 336862 338854 340847
 1.50 333900 333892 331891 329896 328901 326912 323917 321921
      313917 301917 298921 298927 297935 296938 286940 279945
      275949 274954 275964 276969 282969 290965 300963 307958
      313951 318943 322934 325930 327926 330916 332904 333900
 1.50 311888 311886 311884 309883 307884 305886 304888 304890
      304891 303893 303895 304897 305899 306899 308899 309899
      309898 310896 311894 311892 311890 311889 311888
 2.00 314943 314936 312930 308922 305920 302921 300926 300934
      298939 295942 290943 281948 278952 278960 280964 285964
      294960 300958 303956 310949 314943

$$





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