Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 300643
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
142 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 30/1200 UTC THRU JAN 31/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

EASTERN NEW ENGLAND

THE INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER OH
VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM
DEEPENING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT
INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF SATURDAY.  THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT
EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT DEEPENS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST IN THE NAM---GFS AND ECMWF---WITH A CORRESPONDING
EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE RESPECTIVE AXES OF PRECIP.  THE 1200 UTC
ECMWF WAS FARTHER TO THE WEST WITH MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE VICINITY OF
NORTHEAST MA...VT INTO NH COMPARED TO THE REMAINDER OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.  THE 0000 UTC ECMWF DID TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
LATEST NAM AND GFS---WHICH BOTH SHOWED AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THEIR
QPF AXES DAY 1 OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE DAY 1 QPF FOLLOWED
THE GFS-NAM TREND---DEPICTING HEAVIEST PRECIP AND SNOW POTENTIAL
FROM NORTHEAST NH INTO MAINE.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER
WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

SOUTHWEST

MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. DAY 1 AHEAD OF THE SLOW
MOVING CLOSING OFF UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE CA---AZ--NV
BORDER.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANOMALOUS PW
VALUES---3-4+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN--WILL SUPPORT
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
TOTALS FROM IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS---ACROSS AZ---NM
AND INTO SOUTHWEST TX.  THE DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE HEAVIER
TOTALS OF THE HI RES MODELS---ARW---GEM AND NAM CONEST.

UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES

THE NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE PRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE DAY 1.  WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES
REGION WILL SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION/SNOW TOTALS FROM NORTHERN
MN INTO THE U.P. OF MI AND THE NORTHERN L.P. OF MI.    DAY 1 QPF
DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF LIGHT TOTALS ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 480616 483619 486623 487626 488633 487637 488642 485649
      486653 489654 494658 498663 502668 504673 505679 507692
      507702 503708 497714 490717 480724 471728 466732 459736
      455742 453747 451749 447755 444761 441767 438776 438782
      436785 433790 427796 423801 420809 415823 412824 411820
      411815 409810 405808 401809 396810 393813 393818 394824
      390824 383825 381824 378828 363852 365825 358837 353839
      353830 356823 357819 360817 371808 377804 382799 387794
      393791 407784 411784 413781 416774 417765 418760 415756
      412754 411751 409747 408745 405745 396740 390737 386731
      381724 380713 378701 378698 381695 382692 385689 387686
      388681 388674 389665 403642
 0.01 546172 547163 548155 546143 546136 545130 541122 537112
      536107 534102 530092 527081 520063 516054 512045 503028
      500025 497022 491020 486022 486028 489038 491042 492048
      492054 492061 488087 485116 487121 489125 494133 499139
      504148 505154 505159 505174 505187 508196 517214 519218
      522223 527228 530227 532221 536211 542187 546172
 0.01 520973 521965 520958 520952 519946 515939 510931 507907
      505895 501890 499885 501881 503871 503865 504860 502849
      501844 498842 493842 490840 481841 477841 474840 469840
      466842 461843 459841 457836 454834 451833 447833 440837
      438839 441843 443855 445863 454879 458886 461896 468914
      470925 472932 475937 477942 477949 478953 480964 484970
      490977 496981 504980 507978 512978 515978 518976 520973
 0.01 413101 412095 412092 409089 408083 409077 409072 408067
      405063 401059 395052 392041 391036 392029 395016 399001
      401998 403992 405984 405978 403965 402960 398956 391949
      386954 380961 374971 371976 367978 359983 348986 328990
      318993 313994 310995 297997 288000 281001 277999 268993
      254980 252978 246978 237977 235981 239985 245993 248996
      250001 252006 254011 256015 259017 262021 264027 266031
      262033 258036 254036 251034 246034 244034 242036 239040
      235042 230045 228049 227061 230070 232073 236076 238079
      235082 230093 225103 220113 221118 223123 228125 233126
      238125 244125 250125 255124 264122 270117 273117 275119
      276122 275125 270133 272137 275141 278144 284146 288148
      291152 291157 294160 301167 305170 310170 322171 331175
      336178 340181 344189 354187 360188 365187 364181 359181
      357181 356178 365172 368169 373167 381162 389157 397152
      404144 405130 409119 413101
 0.25 535174 537165 536158 531146 527137 524130 523124 522118
      519112 516112 515119 517132 517148 518162 520169 523173
      531179 534176 535174
 0.25 488686 487681 486678 482675 473670 468658 461649 453642
      448641 446642 443644 440657 436661 430662 425666 421670
      414677 410681 406686 405692 408698 415706 420708 424709
      435712 439715 443718 448717 455715 465711 469708 474705
      482697 486691 488686
 0.25 393117 394112 394107 392101 390097 389089 389082 387076
      382067 376059 368050 362043 357035 353023 350019 343018
      337018 331017 320018 309018 305020 301024 294029 287037
      281047 280053 277057 273060 268061 261061 255060 248059
      243061 242065 244070 250078 256085 263094 270100 285113
      295119 306123 317126 322128 325131 332141 335144 340147
      348153 355154 360154 368148 377144 386139 388133 387127
      393117
 0.25 341170 341166 340164 338163 334162 331162 327161 324160
      324161 325164 327166 330168 332169 335170 339171 341170
 0.50 471693 472687 470683 466678 463671 460662 456655 451653
      443664 437668 432672 427677 420680 418682 416685 417691
      421697 425701 432703 438704 444704 450704 458703 462702
      465700 471693
 0.50 373116 374112 374108 374100 374088 376077 373067 366060
      363058 358058 354060 351063 350067 351070 352075 354086
      351090 347092 345091 343086 341080 341076 331038 323031
      321031 316034 312042 309045 306043 300044 296048 295053
      292056 284061 282064 277065 269068 265071 262075 261079
      262083 268089 282102 290108 296111 319118 324119 330120
      334127 336133 339137 349140 354140 357138 365132 370125
      373116
 0.50 315069 316067 315065 313063 312062 310062 308062 306063
      305064 304065 304066 303068 303070 303072 304072 305073
      307073 309073 311073 311072 313072 314071 315070 315069
 1.00 450677 449672 446674 443679 442682 437684 433686 432691
      435694 438695 443693 447692 450689 449682 450677
 1.00 348121 348116 347114 345107 341096 337084 332080 328083
      324089 320092 314094 309094 303096 302103 305108 311109
      317110 322111 330112 334115 339120 345122 348121
 1.50 339109 339108 338106 337105 336104 336103 335104 334106
      335108 337109 339109 339109

$$




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