Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 240726
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
326 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 24/1200 UTC THRU MAY 25/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND EAST TO WESTERN
GULF COAST...

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
TEXAS...THE ARKLATEX...AND TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

THE LATEST SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT...HIGH-IMPACT MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAIN EVENT
CONTINUING TODAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO "RE-LOAD" WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THAT ROUNDS THE TROUGH BASE AND EJECTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ORIENTED IN A SSW-NNE FASHION EARLY THIS
MORNING IS ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...PER THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH/RIDGE ORIENTATION...AND AS SUCH HAS
EXHIBITED SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION EARLY THIS MORNING.
MOREOVER...THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
LARGE-SCALE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL BETWEEN THE
UPPER TROUGH/RIDGE AXES OVER A BROAD AREA STRETCHING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NNE INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.

THE NEXT IN WHAT HAS BEEN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE
TROUGH BASE...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE TX BIG BEND PER SATELLITE
WV LOOPS...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER AND INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD (12 MON).
DYNAMICAL FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF
THIS SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUES TO GET A BOOST EARLY TODAY
WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW (S-N
ORIENTED JET STREAK) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS
ALONG WITH THE ROBUST LLJ (40-50 KTS) AND ANOMALOUS PW VALUES OF
1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES (~2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) IS
MAINTAINING THE WIDESPREAD ORGANIZATION (MULTIPLE QUASI-LINEAR
SEGMENTS)...THOUGH ON AVERAGE THE RAINFALL RATES HAVE DECREASED A
BIT WITH THE LOWERING MUCAPE (ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CENTRAL
TX)...EVIDENCED BY THE WARMING CLOUD TOPS PER SATELLITE IR LOOPS.

OUTSIDE OF THE NEAR TERM (12Z AND BEYOND)...THE MODELS ARE ONCE
AGAIN STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS IN TERMS OF THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION/FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE QLCS. WPC DID UTILIZED THE
RGEM AND OTHER HIGH-RES GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE WRF-ARW) TO NUDGE
THE ACTIVITY A BIT MORE TO THE EAST DURING THE 12-00Z TIME
FRAME...GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM WITH MUCAPES CLIMBING BETWEEN 2000-3000+
J/KG INTO NORTHWEST LA AND SOUTHWEST AR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
RE-EVALUATE THE TIMING WITH SOME NEWER GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 06Z MODEL RUNS) AND MAKE ANY NECESSARY EDITS TO THE
FINAL DAY 1 QPF PACKAGE ISSUED AT 10Z.

FARTHER NORTH INTO MO...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING TO THE
NORTHEAST...THE DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...AND
AS A RESULT HAVE CUT DOWN ON THE AREAL-AVERAGE QPF A BIT FROM THE
PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST (WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 1-1.5" ON
AVERAGE INSTEAD OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES PER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST). THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRENDS IN THE BULK OF THE GLOBAL AND
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NEW (00Z) ECMWF. STILL A HEALTHY
AMOUNT OF WATER NONETHELESS FROM A BASIN-AVERAGE STANDPOINT...AND
CERTAINLY GIVEN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY (MUCAPES GENERALLY UNDER
1500 J/KG) ALONG WITH THE ANOMALOUS PW AND 850-700 MB MOISTURE
FLUX...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED PER THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...THE SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE INTO EASTERN KS AND MUCH OF MO.


...GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

A REGION OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL DRIFT EAST FROM UT INTO
WY WITH STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
 SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AGAIN IN
THIS ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS WITH 700 MB VERTICAL VELOCITY MAXIMA
ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD CIRCULATION LEADING TO A RAINFALL MAXIMA
IN WY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SD AND NE. THIS COINCIDES WITH A
MAX REGION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE.  ELSEWHERE...MAXIMA IN THE RANGES
OF /SOUTHERN ID/NORTHWEST WY/UT/CO COINCIDE WHERE ASCENT IS
AUGMENTED BY UPSLOPE FLOW.  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREAS DRIFTING
EAST OF THE 700 MB CIRCULATION CENTER SHOULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS IN EASTERN CO.  LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WHERE
CELLS MOVE SLOWLY...AND WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED LAST NIGHT IN
NORTHEAST CO.  MANUAL QPF USED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...WHICH
MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST.

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 539208 540197 538193 535192 529193 523189 517176 514169
      510165 499157 492154 486153 479152 475154 473156 472158
      471163 470173 471181 474188 477194 478197 477200 473201
      471205 468207 465206 463206 460207 461214 468215 471212
      475212 477211 481213 483217 488219 490221 493228 496236
      499240 507253 508256 511258 516259 522256 526250 529243
      532235 536220 539208
 0.01 512683 512681 511678 510679 508682 507685 509687 511687
      512686 512683
 0.01 506706 506704 506703 504702 504699 502699 501700 499700
      499701 499703 498706 498709 500711 502713 504712 505709
      506706 506706
 0.01 510763 510760 510763 510763
 0.01 502686 502684 502681 500679 500680 498682 498683 499685
      499688 501688 502687 502686
 0.01 505740 505738 505740 505741 505740
 0.01 480234 480231 478230 476232 476233 477235 479234 480234
 0.01 476707 475697 473692 472688 470685 469681 465675 461671
      459672 457675 460686 460691 459696 448704 449708 447712
      445714 441715 439718 441719 447719 447729 445732 450737
      455735 459732 460729 460724 462721 467720 470719 472718
      474715 476707
 0.01 484929 484909 483901 482893 482878 482864 480849 479845
      478836 474810 468789 463777 459768 454760 451757 447756
      440757 434763 430776 428788 428795 426801 424810 429836
      429842 428848 426853 423857 412871 407873 405875 402873
      397868 395867 390867 380868 374872 364875 345866 342865
      341863 340859 345853 344848 339847 336848 332850 324849
      320848 318842 320830 324831 325826 325822 324818 319810
      314804 311796 307788 303780 299776 296775 293775 291779
      292787 288791 285791 282789 280792 282796 284798 282800
      277800 272800 268798 273795 272783 270784 269788 266793
      265795 262794 258793 256794 253798 249797 243795 243785
      243780 241776 237775 232775 228779 227785 226791 226798
      230805 233810 234816 235822 237826 240830 243832 248834
      252835 255832 258832 259842 263848 266847 268846 270849
      274857 269863 270875 272880 275882 279885 280889 276901
      273905 271909 263927 259933 255942 251950 250951 250955
      252958 252968 252980 252984 254985 258988 260988 263985
      266982 268981 269984 272986 278985 282979 285978 286981
      287985 286988 282993 276001 275005 274010 274016 276020
      285024 290027 292026 301021 304014 306010 305005 305999
      304993 299986 305980 319975 324975 326978 329983 329990
      328999 330006 334009 341010 344011 348011 358008 366005
      372005 372012 371026 368030 364031 344061 341068 338078
      336082 336085 337091 339092 340095 342110 343116 345120
      350127 354130 358132 363133 365136 365143 362146 359150
      356149 352151 352155 355158 359160 363163 361165 359165
      357167 358172 359176 362175 365177 363180 359181 356183
      352181 352184 358186 365190 370192 376197 384204 387206
      392208 399209 399205 396202 395199 397197 403191 406186
      410184 417182 421181 424178 429172 434172 437175 440176
      441179 440186 438190 441191 450193 458186 460183 463178
      469155
 0.01 469155 471152 471146 473136 474124 476116 477105 477094
      477085 475082 474079 475075 476069 476059 479039 480027
      481017 480005 479997 481988 481977 480967 479957 483939
      483931 484929
 0.01 410204 411202 410201 409201 408201 408204 410204 410204
 0.01 407213 407210 406209 405210 404211 403212 402214 402216
      403217 404217 405215 406215 407213 407213
 0.01 407119 406118 404117 404116 403115 401116 400118 401119
      402120 404120 406120 407119
 0.01 394108 392103 390098 390095 390091 387092 384095 381099
      378101 375105 375109 379107 382108 383112 385113 389111
      393109 394108
 0.01 381174 381172 381171 379169 377170 375171 376173 377174
      378174 380175 381174
 0.01 255781 255779 253779 253781 254783 255781 255781
 0.01 238842 237840 237838 235837 233836 231838 231839 232840
      233842 233843 235844 236844 237842 238842
 0.25 527228 530218 527211 524205 522200 519193 516187 508179
      503176 498175 494184 491192 491199 500207 502214 505219
      510224 513229 515235 521239 524238 525235 527228
 0.25 470989 471982 471975 470965 469955 469947 471939 472935
      472929 470921 470911 471892 471881 470871 467836 463813
      459797 456788 452783 449782 443785 441791 440800 438818
      437834 436849 434858 431865 428873 426880 423885 418889
      408896 397901 392898 390894 380885 372885 365887 348890
      335893 327895 323895 320894 316890 315883 313877 308874
      302867 300865 297866 295869 295873 294881 292887 291907
      287921 284928 281934 276943 267950 261957 258963 257968
      258977 260979 263977 268971 276970 281971 287973 290974
      294974 297973 302973 308972 314969 319966 325964 333964
      335965 337968 339972 343976 351982 399976 405979 410983
      422987 427996 428003 429010 425019 423028 423039 422043
      420044 411043 407044 412031 412024 409021 397016 395014
      393017 392026 392035 389043 390048 392052 394055 393059
      391066 390070 391073 394079 396085 399091 403096 406103
      412103 415102 419105 423109 429111 431110 433106 435100
      436086 440081 444080 448081 452085 454093 457095 456087
      457078 457070 458063 462056 465049 467032 466023 468015
      469010 468006 468999 470989
 0.25 408156 408152 407149 408145 405144 398141 393142 388140
      386142 382141 381139 379142 382147 389149 394152 400155
      401157 404159 408156
 0.25 362998 362994 358991 354991 350993 346995 342997 339999
      341004 345004 349004 355003 358002 362998 362998
 0.25 295813 296811 295810 293809 291810 290812 290813 289814
      290816 290817 292817 294816 294815 295814 295813
 0.25 293012 293010 292008 291007 290006 289005 287004 286005
      285006 284008 283010 283012 284014 285016 287017 289016
      291015 292014 293012 293012
 0.50 515206 516200 515198 515194 513192 510190 507190 505191
      504194 504197 506200 507203 509206 511208 514208 515206
 0.50 467981 467970 466962 462949 462945 464938 465929 464921
      463916 463908 465895 466890 467881 467863 465842 464833
      462826 459812 457806 455801 452799 449798 447801 444815
      443827 442839 439856 436869 434876 433883 432888 429893
      420898 415901 411905 403910 396913 389916 385917 382916
      378905 376892 374890 371890 366892 346897 340898 334900
      326906 319907 314905 306900 303900 301902 300908 298913
      295917 286935 284939 280943 272949 264958 261963 260968
      261974 265972 268968 272966 277965 282966 288971 292972
      295970 301968 309964 321958 325957 332957 341962 343966
      346972 354978 356979 358978 363975 379967 387966 393968
      405969 411970 411978 414980 418975 422975 426977 433981
      448998 446007 442012 439016 437022 434027 431030 429036
      430043 429051 427056 425061 423066 424073 423079 426083
      430082 435077 441075 448076 450073 453059 454049 453043
      453035 454027 456016 457008 456001 456997 459996 462994
      466987 467981
 0.50 406030 405029 403029 402030 402032 402035 403035 404033
      405032 406030
 1.00 459861 459857 459852 459847 458842 457840 456837 454840
      453843 451845 450848 450853 450857 451862 452865 455866
      458864 459861
 1.00 452920 453915 452911 451908 450903 448901 446900 445901
      443906 445911 446913 448916 448920 450923 451923 452920
 1.00 449937 449932 445931 438932 434932 432930 431923 431917
      429914 426913 422916 419921 415936 412937 408937 403940
      400943 393944 388945 384941 375932 372926 372917 369911
      364908 360910 357915 352921 346922 338922 333924 321926
      310923 303921 299921 297923 292934 287944 283948 280954
      281958 283960 287965 291969 296967 314955 323945 329945
      333947 339951 346951 359951 359954 357957 351960 347963
      346965 347968 350969 354969 360965 364962 368960 394954
      400955 402957 402961 407962 412961 426957 431957 435961
      438967 442964 445961 448954 448943 449937
 1.00 443067 444060 443055 442050 439047 437045 436051 436054
      435059 432064 431068 431071 433073 436070 440068 443067
 1.00 424968 424966 423965 421966 420968 421969 423970 424968
 1.00 270962 271960 270958 268958 266959 266960 265962 264964
      263966 262968 262970 263971 264970 265970 266968 268966
      268965 269964 270962 270962
 1.50 434945 433944 431942 430942 428942 426942 425942 424943
      423945 424946 426946 428946 430946 431946 433946 434945
 1.50 398949 396948 395948 393948 391949 391950 393951 395951
      396950 398949
 1.50 366938 367935 366933 365927 363925 359927 353927 353932
      352938 350943 350946 352947 357945 361943 364941 366938
 1.50 345943 345936 344931 341928 337927 329930 321929 307939
      305938 304932 303928 299926 295929 294933 291941 287950
      286955 286960 291966 297964 305958 310953 321940 325939
      329939 336943 338946 342947 345943
 2.00 361936 361934 359933 357933 356934 355935 355936 354938
      354940 353941 353943 354944 355944 357943 359941 360938
      361938 361936
 2.00 342943 342941 342939 341936 341935 340934 339933 338934
      338936 339939 339941 340943 341944 342943
 2.00 320935 316935 312939 310944 307945 305943 301941 301936
      301930 298929 296931 293941 289952 288957 289962 293964
      297962 305957 310949 316940 320935
 3.00 304952 304949 303948 303947 301946 300947 299948 299949
      299952 299953 300954 301955 302954 303953 304952

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.