Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 251839
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 26/0000 UTC THRU MAR 27/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1

EASTERN OK---NORTHERN AR---SOUTHERN MO INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
LOWER LAKES

THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL BECOME FOCUS FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTION EARLY IN THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD AHEAD OF HEIGHT
FALLS PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.  THE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW---ALREADY STRENGTHENING INTO THIS
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON---WILL REMAIN FOCUSED INTO THE
BOUNDARY---ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE WAVE FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD AS VERY FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION JET DYNAMICS ENHANCE UVVS ALONG THE FRONT IN AN AXIS OF
1-1.5+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN PW VALUES.  THIS WILL
SUPPORT A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM EASTERN
OK---NORTHERN AR---SOUTHERN MO---INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY
AREA.   IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW MOVING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
FRONT---THE FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING---LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN TX AREA.  FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST---HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL ALSO EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 1200 UTC THU OVER THE
UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN LAKES AS THE OVERALL FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS WEAKEN.  STILL---WITH PW VALUES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE
AHEAD OF THE EAST NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SURFACE WAVE---MODERATE
PRECIP TOTALS OF .25-.50"+ POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA.

UPPER TX COAST---COASTAL LA

WHILE PRECIP POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED OVER LARGE
PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX DAY 1---A SECOND SURGE OF MOIST SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE UPPER COAST OF TX/COASTAL LA AREA
THURSDAY---SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL HEAVY
PRECIPITATION MAX FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO COASTAL LOUISIANA.
A RENEWED AREA OF VERY FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS IN THE MOIST INFLOW AXIS---WILL SUPPORT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD.

COASTAL CAROLINAS---COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

A EASTERN AXIS OF INFLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY---SPREADING AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS---ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A LOT OF VARIABILITY WITH QPF
AMOUNTS IN THIS AXIS---LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS.
HOWEVER--HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AXIS WHERE TRAINING OF
CELLS IN A SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IS
POSSIBLE.  THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEAN USED
TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES---WITH .25-.50"+ AREAL AVERAGE
AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS WHERE
TRAINING OCCURS.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN VERY AMPLIFIED
DAY 1 AS IT PUSHES INLAND.  THIS AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE STRONG ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
VANCOUVER ISLAND AND SOUTHWEST CANADA---FOCUSING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE U.S. PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  AT THE
MOMENT---MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR MOSTLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
OLYMPIC RANGE.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 27/00Z
 0.01 449628 449647 458645 462645 464643 467643 480648 487650
      493653 499655 503657 506661 510667 512671 515676 528729
      534754 532764 532768 531774 527795 524815 520828 520833
      521838 522842 523849 523856 525863 521875 518887 516892
      514896 511899 508903 503908 497914 495916 491918 487919
      484918 473907 468904 465903 463904 460908 457905 456891
      459881 462870 461863 457860 453857 450853 450847 453845
      458843 461839 462836 465838 468838 470835 473825 475822
      479822 482823 482819 479811 471791 464775 460767 454758
      449769 447782 446787 444792 440801 433817 427835 425843
      423851 416870 414875 411880 409884 407891 408901 405914
      395952 394962 397960 399955 402952 405951 413954 420957
      426961 430969 434976 437985 442994 448998 454005 461012
      467020 473026 479032 485038 490045 494052 495057 493062
      489063 487063 479058 473054 468049 465047 461047 450047
      441045 436040 431032 428025 425021 413008 409002 405993
      401986 397978 392971 388978 384984 380986 377986 368985
      363987 360989 353994 352997 352001 353006 354013 356017
      360025 363030 365035 368039 371041 376044 381044 391044
      399044 403050 406054 404054 396057 379056 360054 354054
      349051 342048 350027 350012 347004 344000 341999 337997
      332996 321995 317995 314997 308000 303005 298010 291015
      264024 252011 250012 247012 243010 236005 233999 230993
      230979 232971 233961 235953 237947 240940 243933 245925
      248919 251911 253905 256898 260891 262886
 0.01 262886 265879 269872 276855 278847 279844 282841 288835
      290831 291827 288825 284824 277822 269820 263819 260817
      254812 252810 253806 256787 258778 261772 269766 275760
      284750 291744 295741 300740 315733 333726 349718 356713
      363708 370703 376698 390686 403676 410670 412661 415650
      420637
 0.01 541192 542182 541176 539172 537169 534168 524158 516152
      505147 500144 497141 489132 484129 481127 478126 472124
      470125 469129 469136 471142 468142 463141 457142 455147
      449176 441185 440190 441193 444198 448199 451194 457186
      462182 463176 464173 466172 470173 473174 475177 478178
      479180 483185 487190 487196 486201 483203 478205 469209
      462217 460221 464225 470224 475227 473231 470233 468235
      468239 469242 469247 470252 473258 476262 484273 488277
      490284 497292 502296 504294 509293 512288 519273 523258
      527245 529236 531227 534221 536212 541192
 0.01 503160 502156 501154 497153 494152 491151 489149 486146
      485146 484148 485151 487154 489157 490158 493159 497160
      500161 503160
 0.01 344803 341799 336798 331797 325797 320800 318802 318806
      319813 319817 318819 319834 318839 321844 326853 331854
      336852 343844 341832 342824 341821 343818 344805 344803
 0.25 532214 533204 532196 531190 528183 522171 519167 516166
      515169 514172 509170 503168 499170 499177 501184 508195
      514205 517210 522215 526217 531216 532214
 0.25 519265 519260 519254 515245 511236 506226 502219 500214
      496211 488213 486217 488222 491231 496239 498243 498248
      495246 492242 487239 484242 481247 481254 488272 492280
      495284 500287 503289 506288 512281 516274 519265
 0.25 500752 500747 499742 498738 496737 493736 490739 490742
      489747 490752 491757 492760 494764 495766 498767 499763
      499760 500755 500752
 0.25 475882 475881 473881 471882 471883 470885 469885 469888
      470889 471890 472890 473888 473887 474885 475883 475882
 0.25 455715 454709 450704 447701 442699 439695 438687 435683
      431682 425682 420683 412688 405696 396707 385726 380734
      377737 372740 360744 350747 335751 328753 322756 315762
      312766 310771 311778 314783 318785 323786 328786 335786
      341786 349784 358779 370775 374773 378769 385761 388758
      393755 400750 409742 416735 420733 426733 428734 426736
      423742 419754 415764 411772 405782 393800 390816 385827
      381837 376846 366864 361874 357884 355892 352898 346908
      341917 335925 331933 327944 327950 330954 334957 337961
      337966 335971 333978 337982 342982 346980 355974 362967
      368960 375949 383941 386937 389930 392920 399896 400884
      404873 413852 418841 423827 426815 429804 432794 436783
      441771 445760 446752 448746 451740 453733 454724 455715
 0.25 312932 312924 311917 310906 309899 304863 302857 297854
      293854 290856 286862 279871 276877 272883 268895 262908
      251931 246942 246952 247960 249966 252971 254974 258975
      263976 274971 283972 288972 291970 296966 299962 305948
      312932
 0.25 284810 284808 281806 279805 276803 274803 271801 268800
      265801 264804 265807 267809 269810 273811 276811 278811
      282811 284810
 0.50 528210 528204 527198 524193 523189 520186 516183 512183
      512189 515194 516198 518204 521207 524210 528210
 0.50 516270 518264 518259 516251 512243 508235 500222 497220
      494219 492223 492229 495236 500243 502250 502255 500256
      496251 491244 488243 486245 484252 485256 487264 491272
      494279 496282 500285 504286 507284 512278 516270
 0.50 434763 431761 427764 424766 420770 409791 406803 401811
      395821 389831 379848 370870 365880 362890 358903 353913
      348923 345932 344939 345947 343960 340971 341976 346976
      353969 362961 374946 380935 385924 389915 391910 392904
      393888 395882 397876 401864 406856 412845 416835 422812
      424805 424798 424791 427784 431773 434768 434763
 0.50 424706 424701 424696 422694 419694 414697 410702 407707
      404713 403720 403726 409726 414724 419720 421714 423708
      424706
 0.50 399735 400730 397730 392732 386735 382739 377744 375749
      374756 380756 385753 390748 393745 398740 399735
 0.50 349769 350765 349760 344759 337760 330761 325762 320767
      319769 319774 323778 328779 336778 343777 347774 349769
 0.50 307933 306920 304905 301893 302878 301871 299867 297866
      293865 289868 283876 276886 272894 268907 264915 258925
      256930 254935 255944 257948 262947 264948 265952 264959
      267964 271967 276966 287960 291958 294956 301946 305939
      307933
 1.00 516264 515256 513250 510244 507239 503235 497234 501240
      503246 504252 506260 507266 511272 513271 515267 516264
 1.00 506279 506272 504265 500261 496256 493251 491249 488249
      488257 490264 493270 496275 500280 502282 505281 506279
 1.00 410824 409822 409821 408821 406822 404825 403827 403829
      403832 405833 407832 407831 408830 408829 409826 410824
      410824
 1.00 397851 398842 396839 394839 390843 387849 383854 381858
      376871 371881 369887 367894 364907 359920 355931 352946
      348959 347966 350969 353967 359959 366949 373940 379929
      384917 385911 386902 386893 387887 390872 397851
 1.00 297935 299918 298908 298897 298887 296876 295874 291874
      287879 280892 273906 272913 270923 272931 274939 277947
      280954 284955 287954 292949 296943 297935
 1.50 513266 514261 513257 512253 511250 509247 508245 506242
      504242 504247 505250 506253 507256 508260 509264 510266
      513266
 1.50 504278 504272 503267 500264 497260 495256 492252 490254
      490258 492263 493267 496271 498276 501279 504278
 1.50 384868 384866 385863 384862 383863 382866 382867 383868
      384869 384868
 1.50 383877 383872 382869 378875 372887 368903 364918 360932
      358939 356947 357952 361950 366946 373934 379922 382916
      383906 382886 383877
 1.50 297897 296893 294889 293883 290883 287885 284889 280897
      277906 277914 279925 282929 285931 288934 290934 291931
      293920 295910 296899 297897
 2.00 511263 511260 511259 510257 510256 509254 509252 509251
      508249 507248 506247 506248 507250 507253 508256 508257
      509259 509260 510262 511263 511263
 2.00 503275 503271 501268 500266 498263 496261 494258 493256
      492258 493261 494264 495267 497270 499274 500275 503275
 2.00 381913 381907 380902 378897 374895 371903 368914 366923
      362932 359942 359945 362947 364945 369938 373931 377922
      381913
 2.00 293904 292901 290899 288899 286900 284904 283906 282909
      282912 282916 283919 284921 288921 290918 291916 292913
      292910 293906 293904
 3.00 377916 377915 376913 376911 375910 373910 372911 372914
      371915 371916 371917 372918 372920 373922 374920 374918
      375918 377916 377916

$$





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