Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 250604
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
103 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 25/1200 UTC THRU JAN 26/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE AFFECTING THE EASTERN U.S. IN
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES.

...MIDWEST INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND MID ATLC...

LEAD CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO
DRIVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE TN VALLEY BEFORE
TURNING MORE EWD ACRS THE CNTL/SRN APLCNS BY MON MRNG.  THE MORE
ORGANIZED PCPN BAND WILL ACCOMPANY PARENT LOW THAT IS FCST TO MOVE
FROM SE IA SUN MRNG TOWARD SRN OH BY MON MRNG BEFORE ENERGY BEGINS
TO TRANSFER TO DVLPG COASTAL LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST.
QPFWISE..SFC-7H LIFT WILL MAKE THE MOST OUT OF LIMITED MSTR
AVAILABILITY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF .25 INCH OR
MORE FROM PARTS OF SRN IL EWD INTO SW PA/NRN VA/WRN MD BY MON
MRNG.  THE 00Z GFS GENLY FELL IN LINE WITH THE 12Z EC WITH MASS
FIELDS AND THE TWO MODELS ALONG WITH INHOUSE BIAS CORRECTED
ENSEMBLE MEAN WERE GENLY FOLLOWED FOR QPF...WITH THE NAM INITIALLY
TOO DRY WITH PRE COLD FRONTAL PCPN SOUTH OF THE WAVE.   PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST SUITE OF WWD PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
REGARDING WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.


...ELSEWHERE...
GENLY LIGHT WAA SNOWS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE UPR MS VALLEY
WITH TRAILING CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING ACRS B.C. AND WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR RAPIDLY SEWD THRU SRN MANITOBA SUN NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THRU FL AS STG
HEIGHT FALLS PUSH SEWD THRU THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SE U.S.
THE FAST MOVEMENT AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT AMOUNTS.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 566035 561035 558032 555029 553029 553033 553039 551045
      549049 545051 536048 530042 525036 519025 515016 513007
      510996 511991 513985 513981 510977 504972 497967 489960
      487957 485955 482955 474954 465951 457945 453937 450928
      450914 452908 455905 462898 468893 481882 484879 490878
      499878 514887 518887 521890 526897 528902 528905 531906
      536907 539909 542912 545917 548920 550924 555933 559943
      564955 569969
 0.01 528245 531238 533229 537210 540203 540197 540189 536182
      531179 528174 526169 521164 516164 514166 513170 512179
      513189 514204 516219 518228 518232 516235 515238 513237
      508232 501225 500232 500241 501245 499250 493246 490246
      489249 488254 486264 486271 485280 484291 481309 484312
      486311 489314 491319 495319 498317 502316
 0.01 490142 491140 491137 489134 488133 486133 484133 483133
      482133 481134 479134 479135 480137 480138 482140 482141
      483141 485142 487142 488144 490143 490142
 0.01 433933 433911 433902 431894 427878 423858 421838 418820
      418814 418803 420794 420783 420775 417768 411754 409748
      407737 405725 402715 400714 395720 393727 391733 388751
      387758 386762 383765 373774 364781 358785 352788 341797
      338799 338802 345801 349800 352802 357805 358807 357809
      355812 352817 345831 342836 339838 337841 336848 337855
      335861 330867 326872 325876 325881 329883 338883 341882
      344884 347890 349894 347899 344904 342910 344915 348917
      350917 351921 352930 355934 361938 366941 371945 379949
      384952 396959 402959 405961 408961 422958 426954 430947
      433933
 0.01 379728 378720 378717 376715 373712 368711 358711 344714
      325723 322726 319730 313740 310749 311756 310761 309767
      308773 301782 295790 288795 274809 263825 261828 258833
      257846 269859 276865 280868 286871 289870 291865 295857
      298845 299832 305823 309815 315807 321799 330792 335785
      338775 343764 350758 358752 365746 373738 377733 379728
 0.01 333164 331159 327152 325137 323131 317127 308119 299109
      294110 289112 288121 291127 299135 305138 309143 314149
      317155 327163 333164
 0.01 293096 294089 292085 286076 280069 271064 266062 261060
      257063 256069 257074 259079 262082 266086 274092 281097
      287098 292097 293096
 0.25 524262 522259 520256 519254 516251 514249 511248 509249
      507253 507258 506263 505268 504273 504278 504281 506285
      508288 510290 511292
 0.25 533208 533206 534203 534201 534198 534197 532195 531194
      529195 528195 526196 526198 526201 526204 527207 528208
      529210 531211 531210 532209 533208
 0.25 408798 408788 406781 404773 400773 396775 391780 389785
      388789 389794 390797 388800 388804 391805 392807 394816
      391824 385835 381841 375846 367853 363858 362863 363866
      366867 371862 376862 377865 377870 375878 373885 374893
      378898 385900 397899 401897 403894 403887 402877 404870
      408854 407815 407805 408798
 0.50 520271 520267 520263 519260 517257 516256 513257 511258
      511262 510265 510267 509272 509276 510280 511281 513282
      514283 516282

$$




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