Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 200702
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
301 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 20/1200 UTC THRU JUL 21/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NORTH DAKOTA/UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

ANOTHER BOUT OF CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
850/700-MB SHORTWAVE MIGRATES FROM EASTERN WY INTO THE
DAKOTAS/MN...WITH SHOWERS BOTH IN WARM ADVECTION AND THEN
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.

THE MODELS BROKE CONTINUITY TO INDICATE LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN MI/IN
SO WENT WITH THE NEWER GUIDANCE SUITE.
A COMBINATION OF RECENT HRRR RUNS AS WELL AS THE 00Z
HRW-ARW/HRW-NMM-B COUPLED WITH SOME CONTINUITY WAS USED FOR MANUAL
PROGS.


...SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS OVER THE LOWER
MID-ATLANTIC...ABUNDANT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO  BE FAVORED IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE BLENDED-TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PWAT
VALUES IN THE 1.50 TO 2 INCH RANGE POOLING OVER THE CAROLINAS AND
ADJACENT LOCATIONS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE FUELED BY THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF UPTICK IN
CONVECTION WITH ANY MESOSCALE PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH WITHIN
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

THERE WAS A CONSENSUS TO FOLLOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WITH A
MAXIMA ALONG THE OUTER BANKS DOWN INTO SC WHERE SEA-BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY.


...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS/HIGH PLAINS...

WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WILL DRAW ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. THE ENHANCED MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY IN REGIONS OF UPSLOPE FLOW.  MANUAL PROGS USED
A BLEND OF CONTINUITY WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS QPF.

...GULF COAST/FL...

PERSISTENT LOW/MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
ENHANCED ATLANTIC MOISTURE TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA. MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD ORIGINATE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES
AND QUICKLY MIGRATE WESTWARD WITH THE PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW.
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE TROPICAL AIR MASS IN
PLACE.  MANUAL PROGS BLENDED CONTINUITY WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN
REGIONAL GEM.


PETERSEN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 505237 505231 504228 501220 498214 496208 496200 497192
      499185 501175 500161 498149 493124 485094 484088 482081
      481066 480062 480057 481053 483054 488056 494057 497056
      500052 501045 501036 498029 496025 497019 498011 498004
      499998 501992 504987 505980 506963 505950 503944 502938
      502931 502921 502916 504912 506902 507893 506884 501875
      494868 485864 480854 477852 474854 465860 458861 454868
      449878 453908 454915 457920 465927 470933 473937 474944
      467978 465994 458001 452009 449014 448020 449027 452032
      454036 457042 456047 455053 452060 450068 449077 449090
      450100 451105 459125 471143 467150 464158 461164 457169
      450175 447179 450183 465178 467182 471181 478175 482169
      484167 485172 485175 484179 483188 482196 479202 476205
      471208 464211 461214 461219 465224 468224 471224 473227
      469231 467233 463233 461236 462239 466242 472243 476245
      480250 482250 484247 483239 479222 483224 486230 488228
      491232 496236 499238 502238 505237
 0.01 447937 447926 447915 446908 444900 441894 439891 435885
      433882 427876 421869 413864 410860 405857 365840 363838
      364834 364828 366816 365811 366806 369802 369797 371791
      368785 367781 368778 370772 374763 377760 380759 380753
      378750 372749 369747 366744 358741 355743 351743 348745
      298800 294796 289792 278788 268787 262788 257790 252792
      248795 244798 242802 239810 238814 239821 242827 244830
      246831 251832 254831 256832 273841 280847 283850 285854
      287859 288866 289871 288877 286909 283934 279945 275950
      266958 260964 251973 249978 249982 251984 253990 255993
      265997 271997 275995 282991 288984 294975 299962 303950
      312945 315944 318944 322947 331950 344950 353949 363945
      367942 373938 377935 383936 387938 393939 406939 412938
      416936 421937 424942 429949 437955 441955 442953 445947
      447937
 0.01 428061 429058 428056 427055 425053 425056 423058 423060
      423062 424063 426063 428061 428061
 0.01 420067 419059 418052 420051 421048 420041 419034 419030
      417023 413020 408014 405015 402018 396025 394028 389026
      382035 375035 373030 368032 362038 357043 353047 352051
      354055 356058 357062 356067 338069 335072 331074 325074
      321076 321082 320085 318086 312085 309089 311095 307097
      303097 288108 285099 278093 280091 285092 290092 291089
      286088 284086 288085 289083 287081 282078 277078 275073
      271070 267067 264066 260062 259059 261056 263054 261051
      259048 258044 256039 254039 255044 258049 258051 256051
      253050 249049 249053 247057 243056 240058 241063 245065
      251070 254073 254076 247071 242069 242072 243076 245077
      251080 256089 260092 264093 267096 266098 263098 260099
      262103 270106 274108 276112 285117 288122 291124 294125
      298129 303130 307129 312130 322127 326127 328124 327120
      331118 334120 337124 344130 348135 350137 353138 360139
      363137 365133 369129 370120 370117 373115 373127 374132
      377132 386128 390123 393117 398108 399105 400102 403098
      404096 406098 407103 408099 405096 402094 400093 401090
      406089 411091 414092 415085 417080 417074 418069 420067
 0.01 386104 388102 388100 387098 385099 385102 386104 386104
 0.01 378107 377105 375104 374105 373105 373107 375108 377108
      378107
 0.25 497957 493927 491918 492908 491901 490893 487886 484885
      481887 479890 475893 471893 468895 468903 470909 472913
      482919 485924 486927 485933 485938 484945 480957 476972
      475979 474987 474998 473004 474009 478014 482018 485019
      487017 487009 486002 490987 494975 496965 497957
 0.25 438930 437925 436923 434916 431911 427906 423902 420901
      417901 413905 415912 418917 422919 427923 430929 433933
      436933 438930
 0.25 412898 401880 393874 389872 385870 374868 362868 358868
      355870 352874 346879 330891 328894 329898 331903 335911
      344918 348920 350924 354925 356923 357920 357917 359914
      361911 364910 369908 374908 378909 392910 403908 407906
      409903 412898
 0.25 403072 402068 403065 400061 399057 395055 391052 389049
      387052 386054 383054 381051 379051 381056 382059 381061
      379062 373061 368059 366064 369066 371068 373071 374075
      372081 373085 377089 381085 384086 385088 387091 389091
      391089 391086 391082 393079 395077 399077 402074 403072
 0.25 388084 389082 389079 389077 390075 388074 387074 386074
      385075 384077 383079 383081 384083 385083 386084 388084
      388084
 0.25 369108 369104 367101 365097 368093 367089 364088 359087
      358089 358093 360095 361098 359106 357110 361114 364112
      369108
 0.25 360763 358757 355754 349755 347757 336768 330775 327778
      326783 321799 317818 315822 311824 305827 301831 299836
      298840 298846 299858 301867 298879 296890 294908 294916
      295920 299923 304923 312920 316915 320894 321889 320883
      317877 315875 314871 315866 318858 325844 330834 334827
      338822 341819 343815 344803 347794 354780 358770 360763
 0.25 349114 348111 346107 345103 345096 342093 338093 338098
      339102 340109 341113 343118 345118 349114 349114
 0.25 337113 337112 336110 336108 335107 334106 334105 332104
      330103 329105 330107 331109 332110 333112 335114 336114
      337113
 0.25 279823 278817 275813 273810 272806 275803 272799 269796
      266795 260795 255797 249802 247806 246811 248815 251818
      258822 267824 276825 279823
 0.25 271091 272089 271088 269088 269089 268091 269092 271093
      271091
 0.50 491954 489954 487954 486958 484962 484964 482969 482972
      481977 481982 483982 484979 485974 486972 487967 488964
      489962 490957 491954
 0.50 381076 383074 382072 382069 381067 380066 379067 379069
      379071 378073 377076 377078 376080 375082 377083 378083
      379081 379080 380078 381076 381076
 0.50 380886 381883 379881 375880 370880 365880 361882 358885
      357890 360894 363894 369894 372893 376890 379887 380886
 0.50 364090 362089 361089 362091 364091 364090
 0.50 354771 354766 352764 348765 343768 340771 332778 329782
      328788 326799 325805 326809 331813 333813 337811 338808
      339804 343794 348785 352775 354771
 0.50 312909 312903 312896 310892 307889 304889 302891 301895
      300899 299905 299910 299915 303917 308916 311913 312909
 0.50 263800 263798 261799 260799 259800 257800 255801 254802
      252804 252805 252806 252807 253808 254810 256810 258809
      259807 260806 260805 261803 262803 263801 263800
 1.00 336793 335792 333793 334795 335794 336793

$$





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