Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 170819
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
418 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 17/1200 UTC THRU OCT 20/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

FAR EASTERN TO NORTHERN MAINE

NEGATIVELY TILTED HEIGHT FALLS MOVING OFF THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE SWINGING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK/NOVA SCOTIA AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.  AN AXIS OF
ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES--2 TO 3+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN---ALONG THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO FAR EASTERN TO
NORTHERN MAINE EARLY DAY 1---WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PW AXIS CONTINUES TO
PUSH QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD.

GREAT LAKES

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
EARLY FRIDAY---THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BE
SWINGING EASTWARD TROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL PUSH AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES--WITH POST
FRONTAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO PUSHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DAY 1.  THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES---WITH MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS OF THE
EASTERN U.P. OF MI---NORTHWESTERN L.P. OF MI AND FROM FAR
NORTHEAST OH---FAR NORTHWEST PA INTO FAR WESTERN NY STATE.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

NO MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE EASTWARD PUSH OF NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.  AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES IN THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THREAT FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE WEST OF THE WA/OREGON
CASCADES---SOUTHWARD INTO COASTAL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.  MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH
THE WA/NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND COAST RANGE---WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE TOTALS SOUTH OF THIS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OREGON
CASCADES/COAST RANGE AND INTO COASTAL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

SOUTHWEST

A MORE SOUTHERN STREAM AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED
INLAND FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA INTO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROF MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS.  HOWEVER---AT THE MOMENT---MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR MOSTLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH PORTIONS OF AZ INTO NM AND FAR
SOUTHWEST TX.


DAYS 2-3...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AN INITIAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE PAC NW ON FRI WILL REPLACED
BY SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON SAT BEFORE A VERY AMPLIFIED ERN PAC UPPER
TROUGH WITH AN EXTENDED FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY PRESSES INTO THE NW
FOR SUN. THIS SHOULD YIELD A RATHER UNIFORM PRECIP SHIELD ONSHORE
ACROSS COASTAL WA/OR TOWARD THE CASCADES. WPC FOLLOWED A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF.

GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST U.S.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE COLD CYCLONIC UPPER TROUGH AND A DISTINCT DISTURBANCE ALOFT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE ERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY TO PRODUCE A
COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT AND INSTABILITY QPF. THE GUIDANCE IS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOST FACETS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST QPF ACROSS
UPSTATE NY INTO NH/VT AND MAINE.

SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTH TX
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
UPPER DYNAMICS MOVING INTO CA ON FRI/SAT WILL EVENTUALLY
CONSOLIDATE AND FORM A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO
LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY DRAW MOISTURE FROM
THE SWRN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SOUTH TX TOWARD WEST TX/SRN
ROCKIES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH INTERNAL PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED
GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS.

UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
UPPER DYNAMICS MOVING INTO THE PAC NW ON FRI WILL TRANSITION
DOWNSTREAM AND LOWER HEIGHTS AGGRESSIVELY ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON SUN. THIS RESEMBLING EARLY CLIPPER-LIKE
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WPC FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS FOR QPF AMOUNTS
LESS THAN A .25 INCH.

ORAVEC/MUSHER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 18/12Z
 0.01 488613 498630 503641 507652 516674 526698 534717 536734
      537750 539766 537781 532808 531814 531819 530826 530835
      528864 528870 527873 527878 526884 523890 519900 516905
      515910 509916 505919 501919 498921 493922 486930 475925
      467933 464935 457936 452935 449933 447930 445924 439903
      437898 437892 444884 443879 440876 431870 426869 422871
      416871 412869 410863 411860 415851 417848 417839 414823
      409816 407809 404804 402800 400799 396796 390797 383804
      381804 382799 389792 398786 407782 416776 419774 421771
      426763 429753 431748 435745 440745 444748 446747 446744
      449741 452738 453733 452729 449724 448717 447714 444715
      442716 439714 438708 442700 443697 442693 438691 429688
      420687 410686 405687 400686 382686 363687 361680 361676
      366669 369664 372660 380654 386649 390648 394645
 0.01 536207 535198 533191 531181 527175 522168 519164 510162
      506161 503164 499164 497161 491160 485162 479167 478175
      482183 485187 486192 482198 471204 465206 459204 455209
      449212 441213 435215 429216 426217 423219 422230 418229
      416225 416217 414214 409215 403216 405222 404226 400226
      392224 384225 369228 367228 364230 362233 360240 356244
      354247 353251 352256 354259 358265 362267 364270 368276
      374281 384284 398286 412286 427286 443287 455287 464289
      470290 477290 486293 499304 503301 508296 516281 519272
      522261 522254 522249 519239 514225 509219 508215 509209
      510206 513204 517210 522218 525220 528220 531219 533214
      536207
 0.01 495784 495781 495779 494776 493774 492772 491771 490770
      488772 488773 487775 487778 486781 486783 486786 486788
      488789 489789 491789 491790 493790 494789 494787 495784
 0.01 377069 374062 374053 367053 365051 362047 357043 353037
      348033 343030 326033 323039 320041 320046 319054 322057
      327057 329059 332060 336058 341061 347063 355066 362067
      366068 369070 371073 373073 377069
 0.01 279972 278968 275966 270965 265966 261967 257969 254970
      255973 259975 263977 266979 272979 275977 278974 279972
 0.25 477618 481622 485628 489635 491644 492646 494650 498656
      508672 515686 522703 525712 527724 529734 531750 531759
      531772 528791 523810 516827 509840 500852 490863 487866
      484867 480867 477869 474874 472883 470886 466885 463877
      460870 455864 452862 447861 444859 444853 446846 449838
      450836 454835 456837 460838 462837 465838 466841 470842
      473840 473832 471821 470810 471800 472796 474792 478792
      480793 486798 490797 497793 501789 502785 503774 501762
      498752 495744 491737 487732 481726 474720 470717 466712
      457699 449684 445678 438673 426669 420665 415661 415657
      416653 419650 422648 432645 441641 443639 445635 439631
 0.25 531211 532203 529195 526190 522186 517182 511179 510183
      512186 515192 517198 519204 523209 527213 531211
 0.25 516270 518258 516246 513235 507225 498209 495206 490206
      481206 449216 442218 439221 442224 445228 443233 434237
      427239 416236 407236 401234 397234 388236 384237 381240
      374244 369243 369246 374247 377250 387254 395256 405256
      423256 431254 440253 448253 454254 458255 468260 472269
      475273 479275 489279 498284 502286 507286 510283 513279
      516270
 0.25 425791 424790 423791 422792 421793 420794 420796 420797
      419799 418801 418802 418804 417806 419807 419806 420804
      421801 422799 423796 423794 425792 425791
 0.50 513271 515264 515255 512242 511236 509232 505227 503222
      498213 492210 486210 478211 468213 460216 456218 457222
      459228 456232 446236 444239 442242 443245 448247 453246
      457246 461248 471255 478261 486270 493277 498281 502283
      506283 509280 513271
 0.50 528772 527763 527754 524737 522728 519719 513708 509698
      502685 499680 496676 486669 482668 479665 471657 463650
      459647 454645 448646 442648 435650 430653 432658 436661
      441664 445668 459686 474703 480711 488719 495728 499733
      502741 505753 509770 509780 508787 505793 500798 492804
      487807 483804 480802 477807 476815 477823 485849 488850
      491848 495846 503836 509828 515817 524791 527781 528772
 0.50 492237 491232 489226 486224 481222 476221 472222 469224
      468228 473229 477229 480231 481237 484237 486236 489237
      492237
 0.50 466868 466866 466863 466861 465858 464861 464863 464866
      464868 466869 466868
 1.00 512260 512254 511248 508237 502229 497218 494217 490219
      490223 492228 496238 501247 504257 500256 497251 494248
      492243 488239 485240 483242 480241 479236 477232 472234
      471238 473243 480251 491268 497276 500279 503279 505276
      506265 506262 511262 512260
 1.50 503275 503267 500261 497255 494250 491244 489242 485243
      484248 485253 488258 490263 494269 497273 500276 503275
 1.50 503238 503236 501234 501233 500231 499229 499228 498226
      497225 496223 494222 494223 494224 494225 494228 495231
      496233 498234 499235 501237 502238 502239 503238
 2.00 503273 502267 500264 498259 496254 494251 491246 488243
      486246 486251 488256 490260 493264 495267 498271 500273
      502274 503273
 3.00 498266 498263 496260 495257 494254 492251 491249 489246
      488246 488249 488253 490256 491258 493261 495264 497265
      498266

24HR QP VT 19/12Z
 0.01 535215 537207 536200 533191 529181 524174 522170 518166
      514164 511165 504164 501166 497167 493167 489163 487159
      484157 480154 476155 475157 476162 490175 504185 510192
      516199 519203 521208 523217 526222 529224 532221 534217
      535215
 0.01 519274 521265 522256 521249 517244 513235 506227 505221
      502216 499210 498208 495206 490205 487206 481206 478207
      468212 463211 458214 455216 453222 454227 451232 441234
      437235 433239 433243 429246 427251 427254 429255 437250
      445244 456247 465247 470247 471250 470254 465266 463273
      460277 453280 434288 426290 422292 418295 416301 418306
      427313 438318 449321 471326 481330 489330 493327 496322
      502310 513290 517281 519274
 0.01 526717 524701 522688 515663 511654 506649 493645 485645
      477650 474653 468655 464656 460660 458664 454665 444668
      444675 448682 440689 435696 433701 431704 428704 423706
      418706 414705 411708 410711 412714 415716 418717 427715
      430718 430722 428724 423730 424735 423741 417750 415754
      412758 411761 413764 414767 415774 411780 403784 394787
      386793 380799 371810 365816 363819 361825 359827 358832
      367832 370834 373838 375844 378846 384842 386838 386833
      389833 392837 397844 394856 401860 405862 409865 414870
      416872 421874 428874 431871 431868 423865 419863 418859
      416848 414840 415832 415828 416825 417824 420827 422832
      424836 426836 433831 438830 441832 446831 448829 453821
      456809 459801 461797 465794 471789 474788 477785 481784
      485781 491775 504762 512749 519729 520724 522721 526717
 0.01 485227 485225 484223 483222 481220 480219 478219 476218
      475218 473219 471221 472223 472224 474226 475227 477229
      478229 480230 480231 481232 482232 483229 485227
 0.01 383131 384129 384128 382126 380126 378128 376130 378132
      378133 380133 382131 383131 383131
 0.01 387077 387062 379060 381054 381051 379050 373043 367041
      363037 363030 361027 358027 356024 349024 345021 342017
      339017 336022 329025 327030 326036 331044 334056 339057
      345057 348054 351053 353056 350059 346061 349064 352064
      353061 356059 365059 367065 368070 372079 373084 377083
      385079 387077
 0.01 365121 363119 363118 361118 360118 358118 356120 355122
      356122 357123 359123 361123 363123 365121 365121
 0.01 351079 351075 345074 342074 338076 334077 332081 333086
      335090 337091 338084 341080 345079 350079 351079
 0.01 230989 232994 235997 242002 252005 262007 266006 271007
      274011 278012 284013 288016 296017 297012 295006 290000
      289994 288991 290989 292985 292980 291979 287975 286966
      283963 261965 257963 255958 250951 242946 237944 236946
      233955 231965 230967
 0.25 517270 518261 517254 512244 506234 501226 497223 494222
      493226 494238 494242 491242 486243 485245 484250 485256
      487262 486269 483273 480277 473283 465289 458296 456301
      458304 463309 469311 479311 488309 495306 503298 508291
      513279 517270
 0.25 514680 514675 512670 509665 504662 499663 493666 488670
      479676 464696 456706 448714 445720 445728 444735 443742
      439747 438750 437754 441760 445759 451757 456757 459752
      461746 461737 462733 464731 471723 495713 500710 505705
      508700 509692 514680
 0.25 263982 264980 261979 259977 254972 250968 245962 241956
      238955 236957 234965 233973 234981 239985 246985 249983
      253983 258984 262982 263982
 0.50 515267 516261 515256 513249 508242 502237 502251 490253
      490265 490272 488276 479289 471302 474304 478305 485305
      491303 496300 501295 506290 509282 513274 515267
 0.50 509676 508674 506672 504672 500672 497673 494675 492677
      494679 496679 498680 502681 503681 507681 508679 509676
 0.50 248976 247974 246971 244968 243966 242964 241960 239959
      238961 237964 236967 235971 236975 237978 241979 244979
      246978 248976
 1.00 507277 507274 507273 507272 506270 505270 503269 501269
      499270 499271 498273 498276 498278 498279 499282 501284
      502283 503283 504282 505281 506279 507278 507277

24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 524262 526251 525245 523240 519232 513223 509214 506211
      501208 484209 477211 468213 452217 448217 444219 440219
      436222 423231 418231 413229 410227 407232 403235 400236
      391234 382236 378237 375242 375246 379248 389249 393252
      392259 395261 399261 408261 412261 413264 413272 412279
      414283 418285 427286 434285 444285 452284 460284 470285
      480288 491293 499296 508296 513290 516284
 0.01 523920 524915 523908 521900 518892 514885 506876 501873
      497868 494861 491856 487851 481845 473836 469832 465828
      461823 457817 447809 437805 429807 426809 423810 420808
      416808 414809 414814 414826 412835 410837 407836 403833
      404818 402818 400820 396826 396834 393844 390849 388852
      388856 386870 383878 383886 384895 383904 383909 385912
      388916 392915 394912 396896 401887 404876 404871 405868
      411864 415859 419860 420863 433861 435862 436868 438878
      441883 442887 445889 446898 446908 448911 451911 452914
      448915 446918 447923 452925 454928 455932 457935 459935
      462932 463927 465923 473923 478927 482932 489936 496935
      501932 501928 503925 509926 520926 523920
 0.01 473680 472675 470673 464670 459669 452669 448671 444673
      443676 438681 431684 425687 422693 421701 423709 425711
      429710 436708 441704 444698 446695 450692 455693 458695
      462694 464688 467685 471683 473680
 0.01 452733 452730 451728 449728 448728 446729 444729 443730
      443733 443735 445735 447736 447737 449736 450734 452733
      452733
 0.01 230989 234998 240004 246011 252018 264029 271034 279037
      281038 282041 284045 286049 286052 285053 281057 276058
      270057 266055 255045 249042 245045 245050 253055 261059
      266060 270063 279067 291069 295071 298075 302082 304085
      308085 315092 323097 326099 333100 337103 339109 349119
      352119 353115 348109 346105 347100 350096 356097 362097
      365095 368090 366086 363081 366076 367071 370068 373069
      373073 375084 377088 381091 387085 391083 393077 397076
      401072 398067 391063 386063 382065 378062 376057 376051
      373047 370045 364043 362037 359035 353039 353035 350033
      344037 336039 333042 331044 327044 322042 320043 311046
      306046 302044 297041 295037 293032 292029 294028 299029
      302031 310033 315035 319033 321033 319026 318022 315018
      314015 312015 306014 302012 299008 297004 294000 288995
      282991 279987 283983 283978 279976 275974 274974 272971
      269968 265966 262961 261957 250945 243940 240938 238940
      234944 231950
 0.01 382965 382961 381958 377956 373956 371958 368961 363964
      359965 357967 355972 357976 359978 362978 364977 368977
      373975 379972 381968 382965
 0.01 359045 358043 356042 355044 356047 358046 359045
 0.01 356062 355055 354051 352049 347046 343046 342048 336051
      338056 341056 341059 343060 344059 348057 350062 346064
      344068 346072 349071 351068 353068 355064 356062
 0.01 340065 341063 339061 337060 335060 334061 332062 332064
      333065 335066 337066 339067 340065
 0.25 518271 520264 520257 519247 517239 513231 509224 502219
      494217 492218 489221 483226 477228 470230 464234 458236
      451239 439245 433247 426247 423240 419239 416241 418246
      420248 426250 431253 440253 447253 450253 453257 450260
      443263 439268 442270 447271 453270 460268 467267 474271
      488278 501290 505291 508289 512284 518271
 0.25 457264 456263 454262 452262 452263 454264 456264 457264
 0.25 292020 291016 289014 287012 285011 282010 278011 277013
      277018 278021 279022 283023 287023 289022 292020
 0.25 257998 258995 257991 255988 253982 252976 251970 248966
      245956 241952 237953 234959 233963 232977 233985 234989
      240997 248002 254003 257999 257998
 0.50 516270 518263 518257 517246 514237 510230 507226 503223
      497221 486232 480234 472234 465239 459240 470251 478266
      482269 487271 493276 499282 505287 508286 511282 514274
      516270
 0.50 243980 244976 243972 243969 241966 239964 236965 235968
      234971 234975 234979 235982 236985 239987 241986 242982
      243980
 1.00 514266 515261 515256 514250 512242 510236 506230 502227
      497227 495229 494233 493238 490239 485240 477238 475240
      476243 478244 482248 488259 495270 503279 506281 508277
      510270 514266
 1.50 513263 513258 512252 511246 509241 508237 505232 502230
      498232 499239 501243 501248 504253 506258 509262 512264
      513263
 1.50 504273 504268 503262 501259 499253 496250 493246 488245
      487250 488254 491260 494264 496268 499271 502274 504273
 2.00 507245 508243 507240 506238 505237 504236 503234 502233
      501233 500232 500235 501237 501238 502240 504241 505243
      506245 506247 507245
 2.00 502267 501264 499261 498259 496257 495254 493251 491249
      489249 489252 490255 492258 494261 495264 497266 500269
      502267

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.