Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FXUS04 KWBC 140640
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 14/1200 UTC THRU APR 15/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE GULF COAST...

THE SHRTWV TROF NOW OVR THE MS VLY IS FCST TO BE EJECTED RAPIDLY
NEWD IN RESPONSE TO ADNL ENERGY CARVING OUT A STG UPPER TROF OVR
THE CNTRL U.S. BY THIS EVNG.  DIMINISHING PCPN AMTS ARE EXPECTED
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PD WITH THE EXITING 1ST SYSTEM WITH THE
MOST ORGANIZED ACTVTY CONCENTRATED INVOF THE GREAT LAKES WERE THE
BEST DYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD BE IN PLACE..WHILE A 2ND AREA OF
CONCENTRATED SHWRS OCCURS INVOF THE CNTRL GULF STATES AIDED BY
FVBL DIV FLOW ALOFT AND LLVL INFLOW INTO BNDRYS BEING SET UP BY
OVRNGT CNVCTN THERE.

BY THE AFTN..THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHARPENING UP CNTRL U.S. UPPER
TROF WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR WITH SHWRS REDVLPNG ALONG THE FRONTAL
BAND THE WILL BE STRETCHED FM NNE TO SSW ACROSS THE AREA.   THE
BEST MSTR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONCENTRATED INVOF THE CNTRL GULF
STATES/TN VLY WHERE STG MSTR FLUX INTO THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR HVY TOTALS AS AGAIN STGLY
JET DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY.  WITH TIME..SHWR ACTVTY SHOULD ALSO
INTENSIFY FARTHER TO THE NORTH INVOF THE FRONT AS DAYTIME HEATING
AIDS CNVCTV DVLPMNT AHEAD OF THE CDFNT AS HGT FALLS GRADUALLY TAKE
PLACE.  A 2ND AXIS OF LGTR PCPN TOTALS IS ALSO  LIKELY FARTHER TO
THE NORTH AND WEST BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY ALONG AN AXIS OF STG MID
LVL SHEAR.

MODEL QPFS ARE FOR THE MOST PART ARE IN DECENT ACCORD HANDLING THE
QPF ASOCTD WITH THE ABOVE SYSTEMS/SCENARIOS THOUGH DIFFERENCES DO
EXIST WITH DETAILS. THE UKMET SEEMED A VRY REASONABLE COMPROMISE
BTWN MOST MODEL QPFS AND MAINTAINED GD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.  THE
GFS WAS FOR THE MOST PART WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET
THOUGH IT DID SEEM LACKING WITH AMTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COAST WHERE MOST NON NCEP GUIDANCE WERE INDCTG HEAVIER PCPN TOTALS.

KORTY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 15/12Z
 0.01 524261 507240 504236 502230 499213 496208 490205 483206
      478207 474209 469212 464224 465227 468228 471234 471239
      473242 477246 479249 480248 483247 484243 484233 486230
      488229 491232 492235 495241 499246 502253 502257 500258
      493256 491257 492260 490265 488267 483280 481288 482293
      483295 485297 488299 493299 499298 504297 510293 513288
      516285
 0.01 520668 516664 511662 505662 499664 484669 474675 469681
      465688 457701 452706 447712 437726 432730 430733 429729
      431723 433717 431715 428716 420718 411727 401736 396742
      390746 375753 370754 366753 368743 368739 365739 359743
      350750 340759 332760 327763 315770 310775 305781 302783
      297783 289787 283790 281793 281798 281802 283805 285807
      287808 292812 297813 300815 296816 290820 286823 282828
      265847 256858 253866 250877 250883 252889 257894 260899
      261902 262907 260915 259921 258929 256936 254942 252950
      249959 248962 250966 252966 253972 253982 255986 259987
      265989 269989 271987 277985 282982 284980 287980 288984
      290986 296985 302981 310972 314967 320963 325960 332955
      337948 343943 348939 352934 354932 358931 360937 359944
      361952 357967 354975 349980 342996 338011 339013 342012
      349009 358999 363995 368993 371992 373990 377985 380979
      382972 386965 388956 392948 397941 414919 418914 422909
      429899 438888 444885 451884 466886 471883 475875 478867
      480857 487841 498815 501809 503802 506795 508787 510778
      512765 517748 519739 522729 525712 527698 525682
 0.01 383054 381048 380046 376045 369044 362045 358047 357051
      358054 365055 368056 369059 373064 374065 377063 380058
      383054
 0.25 518273 518268 516263 513260 509259 509265 508270 503270
      501270 501275 503279 506282 508279 512277 515276 518273
 0.25 504743 504736 503728 499716 496704 494699 491697 486698
      481701 474708 467716 459725 449739 443745 435751 427760
      421769 419773 417775 409780 407778 406774 406771 410763
      412758 412752 409751 406753 390768 382773 372778 363782
      354784 344786 339788 337794 339802 338808 332818 329821
      324824 315828 305830 298834 292839 285846 279855 275865
      271874 273879 276882 278885 278890 276900 273909 271919
      271927 272933 275938 279941 288940 299937 301939 303944
      300954 300961 303962 310958 324945 330938 337929 342921
      348914 361904 379892 393881 401875 406868 417854 425847
      435841 439839 445837 455836 474830 479825 484815 489804
      494792 498782 501770 503757 504743
 0.25 340779 340775 339772 336773 333775 331776 328778 327780
      324782 322784 321786 324787 327787 331787 335786 337784
      339782 340779
 0.50 494764 494756 494749 492742 490739 487737 484738 480740
      479738 476738 473742 472740 473737 475732 479728 484720
      485717 482717 478721 472727 467734 461740 455747 441762
      427774 404799 398805 393808 387809 382809 379805 382796
      386788 386785 385782 382781 373784 366788 357792 350798
      341816 336824 330830 327832 322832 318831 315832 305836
      297841 290849 286856 281864 279872 280875 283879 282891
      278915 278921 280925 283930 286932 292931 295930 302926
      306924 310924 312927 313932 315937 313941 316941 321938
      327931 332921 338915 343910 356899 371886 384874 392870
      399866 405861 411854 425839 439828 448824 453825 457824
      465821 469818 472816 478808 483799 492778 493771 494764
 1.00 427793 426792 423793 420797 418799 415803 412807 417808
      419809 417814 421814 424810 425805 425802 422801 424801
      426796 427793
 1.00 382841 379835 373833 368832 365829 361821 359814 355815
      353817 347823 343829 339835 334840 327846 323851 296853
      292859 289865 290878 288887 285903 285909 286915 290920
      294921 297920 302916 311911 317915 322917 326915 330911
      340899 345893 349888 351877 354870 358864 363859 375848
      382841
 1.50 348862 349855 345852 339854 335856 328861 325864 323870
      318877 313878 311873 310869 307865 303861 299861 296864
      295868 295876 294881 291891 290897 290904 291910 293913
      298911 302908 306905 310904 318909 322909 325907 331898
      334890 340882 344873 346869 348863 348862
 2.00 341867 339865 335864 330868 325874 321880 318886 315894
      315899 318902 321903 324900 327894 331888 334882 338876
      341868 341867
 2.00 306884 306878 303874 300874 299878 298883 296887 295893
      294897 295902 299901 301897 302893 304888 306884

$$




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