000
FXUS04 KWBC 130633
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
231 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2013


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 13/1200 UTC THRU MAY 14/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE AREA OF STRONG
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST TO PUSH INLAND INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY---ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY MONDAY.  ABOVE
AVERAGE PW VALUES--2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---ALONG
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN REGIONS FROM
FAR NORTHWESTERN MT---NORTHERN ID---AND THROUGH THE WA
CASCADES--COAST RANGE AND OLYMPIC RANGE.  THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM AND SREF MEAN WERE USED FOR QPF DETAILS ACROSS THESE AREAS DAY
1

NORTHERN PLAINS

TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS---LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE IN THE AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE
PW VALUES WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY THESE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  AT THE MOMENT---IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS MAY BE VERY FAST MOVING TO THE EAST--LIMITING QPF
AMOUNTS.  THE HI RES ARW AND THE NAM CONEST ARE ON THE HEAVIER
SIDE OF THE QPF SPREAD---DEPICTING .50-1" AMOUNTS OVER
NORTHEASTERN MT INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN ND.  GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FAST MOVEMENT---DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SREF
MEAN---DEPICTING .10-.25"+ AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS.

NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO FAR SOUTHERN TX

LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TO REMAIN MOSTLY
OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO DAY 1---POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE
BORDER AREAS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THIS UPPER LOW--WITH
THE DAY 1 QPF NOT DEVIATING FROM THE ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS.


ELSEWHERE---LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MAY SPREAD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES REGION MONDAY TO THE EAST OF
A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT.  LIGHT DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO
POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH THE COLD UPPER TROF AXIS SWINGING EASTWARD
MONDAY FROM THE EASTERN LAKES---THRU THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS---MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 14/12Z
 0.01 536211 537204 537197 536188 529168 519155 512150 506145
      501141 496136 487126 486123 487117 488110 490104 492102
      498095 499092 501093 502095 505106 507110 511113 516120
      520123 524123 527122 529120 532108 533092 534067 533041
      531032 527024 521017 516013 513006 511001 510995 508980
      506976 505968 502961 506957 509954 510950 514947 517940
      516935 512934 509931 505930 499929 491931 489928 491925
      494918 495911 492906 486886 474877 472872 474868 475864
      474859 470855 466855 463854 451850 448851 445849 439851
      437856 432862 434870 434874 437877 442880 446888 455886
      461890 473898 474899 472902 467904 460903 453904 449906
      448908 444916 445925 451927 450931 450935 453942 455948
      458956 461959 464959 482960 484962 482965 473965 471963
      467964 462965 457967 457976 458987 462004 463009 465012
      469020 472027 473034 474045 474051 473055 471069 468071
      463072 457075 456078 455085 455097 450105 444119 442126
      442134 450137 451139 451144 442153 443158 445162 443172
      436191 436197 437199 439203 443205 450201 455197 457193
      459193 463193 466196 470198 472201 471203 464205 458209
      452212 446213 442213 439214 436216 435220 438228 443230
      447228 453230 449232 442235 439238 438243 441248 451252
      465256 471258 474261 481266 485271 488274 489277 496282
      498286 504290 508290 511287 516279 519269 520265 520259
      520253 519246 518238 515230 512223 508217 507211 511211
      515213 517216 524231 527233 530227 532224 535213 536211
 0.01 458717 456709 451708 447708 442710 441710 443718 440723
      437727 441728 445729 448728 454725 455721 458717
 0.01 448746 447742 446739 442737 438737 434742 433747 432752
      433759 433765 436769 438764 439759 441754 446749 448746
 0.01 436776 435772 434772 433773 434777 435778 436776
 0.01 395798 392792 388781 385771 379769 375775 373781 371790
      372794 374798 375803 376811 378814 381814 387814 390812
      392809 395806 395802 395798
 0.01 410072 410060 403059 401056 395049 392046 389046 387050
      389053 392057 391061 389063 386065 384067 380067 375068
      372068 375072 375079 378080 381083 384083 387080 390080
      393080 395083 401080 404077 407076 410072
 0.01 229020 237028 240031 244036 249048 252060 260068 264070
      268075 285088 289089 291091 294091 296088 297078 292066
      291050 291031 290024 287021 281016 279010 275007 270004
      270995 269992 266990 263985 262978 260972 256967 254961
      251957 247956 245958 242958 232957
 0.25 527193 526187 525178 523172 521168 507151 498145 495142
      492138 489134 483130 480128 475126 472126 471128 470137
      475140 480141 483143 484148 483151 479152 474150 467142
      462142 459144 453156 453159 455163 458165 461164 464166
      474172 481178 488184 497192 508195 514197 520199 524197
      527193
 0.25 514266 516258 515252 512242 509231 505222 501212 495204
      489204 486205 481205 477207 471212 464215 461217 455218
      454219 455223 463229 465239 470246 478252 484259 489266
      495275 501281 507283 509280 512269 514266
 0.25 522096 523091 522087 522082 522077 521072 521068 520065
      519063 517060 514060 512063 512068 512072 512077 512082
      513086 514091 514092 515096 517099 520100 522096
 0.25 498246 495244 493238 491233 489228 483226 477224 474224
      477227 480230 482236 485235 491237 493241 495245 498246
 0.25 503040 504035 503031 501027 500018 498012 495006 489006
      487011 485015 485019 484027 484033 484041 485048 488051
      491053 493050 495045 497043 499043 503040
 0.25 264026 263023 262021 260023 260025 260026 260027 263027
      264026
 0.25 262011 258004 253997 251994 251988 252985 252979 251973
      248971 244970 242972 239981 239987 239993 241004 241010
      243013 246017 251017 260014 262011
 0.50 511255 509240 507235 504229 501219 499213 497210 494208
      483208 475211 472215 467218 469221 472220 475219 487223
      490226 492230 499241 501245 503251 506257 508259 511255
 0.50 503276 504266 502260 499258 494251 491248 489244 481241
      479234 477231 475231 473232 471235 471239 472241 476246
      478248 485254 489261 494268 499274 503276
 0.50 507174 507170 505166 499162 491158 482157 473158 470149
      466146 462148 463155 464158 473159 478166 484171 490175
      498179 505178 507174
 0.50 484134 483134 481132 478131 475133 477137 480138 483138
      484134
 1.00 492216 491215 488214 485213 482213 481213 482214 485215
      487216 490217 492216
 1.00 478239 478238 476235 474237 475239 478239 478239

$$