Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 241838
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 25/0000 UTC THRU AUG 26/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

THE ELONGATED TROWAL -- DEPICTED NICELY ON CURRENT STLT IR/WV
IMAGERY -- WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA DURING
THE PERIOD PER THE MODEL 700-550 MB THETA-E FORECASTS. LINGERING
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE
ALONG THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS AND ON THE BACK END OF THE
PWAT AXIS WILL MAKE FOR ADDITIONAL (ALBEIT DIMINISHING) SHOWERS
ACROSS NE-E PORTIONS OF MT EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODEL CONSENSUS IN
TERMS OF THE MASS FIELDS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTPUT WAS GOOD
ENOUGH TO ADVOCATE A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE QPF OUTPUT...WHICH WPC
FOLLOWED WHEN GENERATING THE MANUAL QPF PROGS. ADDITIONAL
AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN .25 AND 1 INCH WERE NOTED
ACROSS NERN MT...THE BULK OF WHICH WILL FALL THROUGH 03Z.


...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES...

THE ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING WELL SOUTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVING INTO CANADA WILL HELP SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR MAINLY SCATTERED CONVECTION...THOUGH AREAS FARTHER NORTH
(NORTHERN PTNS OF THE MID MS VLY INTO THE UPPER MS VLY)...NORTH OF
THE MID LEVEL CAP...WILL LIKELY SEE GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AND
MORE ROBUST RAINFALL RATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD GIVEN THE DYNAMICAL
BOOST VIA A FOCUSED AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
JET STREAK TO THE N-NE...ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND MUCAPES OF 2000-3000+
J/KG THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE S-SW LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO
30-40 KTS WHILE BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THE 850-300 MB MEAN
FLOW THIS EVENING...DURING THE WINDOW OF COMBINED FVRBL DYNAMICAL
AND THERMODYNAMICAL CONDITIONS...WOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF UPWIND
PROPAGATION AND POTENTIAL FOR BACK-BUILDING/TRAINING OF CELLS
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...PORTIONS OF THE MS
VLY FROM NRN IA INTO ERN MN AND WRN WI COULD SEE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
AOA 3 INCHES AS PER THE 12Z 4KM NAM CONEST...NSSL WRF...AND
WRF-ARW.


...NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES...

UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK DIVING S ACROSS THE PAC NW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY AND DIG
INTO CENTRAL CA AND THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. BROADENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH THE STEEPENING 700-500
MB LAPSE RATES (AOA 8.5 C/KM) WILL MAKE FOR SCATTERED...DIURNALLY
AND OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NRN/CEN
GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN/CEN ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AS PWATS AT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE BTWN .5 AND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE THE NORM PER THE
SREF/GEFS/ECENS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MORE HIGH-BASED CONVECTION
WITH AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS GENERALLY .25 INCH OR LESS...THOUGH AS
PER THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...ISOLATED POCKETS OF .5 TO 1.5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.


...CENTRAL GULF COAST...

EXPANSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT SCATTERED
AND INFREQUENT AS A WHOLE ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME HOWEVER...A WEAK SHEAR AXIS SOUTH OF THE MID LEVEL
HIGH (MORE OR LESS AN EASTERLY WAVE) AND ASSOCIATED LLVL
CIRCULATION ALONG AN AXIS OF PWATS OF 2.00-2.25 INCHES WILL
GENERATE MORE NUMEROUS DAYTIME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST (SRN LA/MS/AL). EXPECT THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TO BE GREATEST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
MON...DURING THE WINDOW OF CYCLONIC 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (ABOVE
INCREASING TO ABOVE 20KTS -- FAVORING MORE MULTI-CELLULAR
ORGANIZATION) AND TAPPING INTO THE MUCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG PER
THE WRF-ARW. THE STEADY WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS EASTERLY WAVE
WILL LEAD TO RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGING AOB .50 INCH...HOWEVER PER
THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE...ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 26/00Z
 0.01 565908 564894 563878 562864 560852 559839 557827 553800
      550789 546777 542767 540761 536758 533752 530745 527742
      522741 520741 518743 515748 510760 505782 502785 499786
      494792 485805 479814 474820 466822 455824 452823 447823
      441825 436827 435829 431829 425829 420830 417826 416818
      412815 409815 405817 406824 410826 417830 415849 404858
      405864 408868 410872 408876 395886 385903 390904 392904
      394901 397897 402895 405896 407898 410903 412908 410912
      406922 401924 399926 396926 394929 394941 394952 389959
      382976 376983 369987 353996 342001 337010 336016 332020
      325028 319035 316037 314039 312037 306036 301039 301041
      303044 301047 297054 295058 293060 291060 282060 276060
      270058 261053 254050 247044 240043 234043 231048 228054
      230062 229071 232080 236087 245099 270119 277123 283125
      289125 294124 296122 299123 304126 312127 317125 321123
      327117 335114 339112 342107 353093 357087 360076 363075
      367075 372082 373084 377085 379083 382084 384089 387091
      393100 386108 383112 380114 375118 373123 377126 380125
      382124 383122 386123 386125 387132 385141 386145 391147
      395145 397143 398141 397136 396131 396126 398123 401121
      405120 408122 410125 410128 408134 405142 404149 404157
      403161 405167 407171 409175 409181 408189 406195 405198
      406200 410202 413206 417208 422206 425202 428197 429189
      428184 427179 430178 436174 437164 440165 442169 444172
      443176 436179 436184 438189 448195 452199 455205 462207
      466205 470203 471198 467196 462194 459193 458190 462186
      468180 463173 460170 460166 461164 468161 482156 484162
      484170 485175 487177 491178 493177 498178 502180 507184
      509183 512184 515182 519179 522173 521169 519164 516160
      510154 506151 501149 496148 491150 488150 486146 477144
      472141 469138
 0.01 469138 466130 463125 460123 459120 458112 458101 457097
      454094 447090 444087 441084 436080 434076 432075 429073
      428070 427061 428049 428042 428039 431039 434036 438028
      437018 436014 434011 425004 425992 428983 430973 429964
      428958 430955 435950 439945 444943 448941 452941 460940
      464940 467938 472938 476940 483941 487945 492951 491956
      490958 487962 487967 490974 490981 488985 485989 482992
      476004 471020 467028 463034 458040 456049 458056 459061
      460064 467075 469085 469093 470096 474102 477104 480104
      487103 492102 503097 515087 519083 523076 528069 530063
      536048 542028 545019 549012 551005 553996 557978 559966
      561955 563945 564930 565908
 0.01 492217 493209 490206 487205 483205 479205 476207 473211
      475216 478219 482219 486219 490218 492217
 0.01 416092 417090 417088 416085 414084 413083 411084 411087
      412089 414092 415093 416092
 0.01 404095 404093 403091 403090 402089 400089 399090 398091
      397092 398094 398097 399099 401099 403097 404095
 0.01 393025 393023 392020 391019 390020 390022 390025 391026
      393025
 0.01 385802 379802 375804 370806 367808 361813 354819 346825
      344839 343846 342850 333855 327856 322855 316851 314846
      312840 313834 314830 318821 323813 327803 329797 334793
      339786 344778 352763 356759 358752 357747 354749 350748
      346751 342754 339759 322763 314768 309773 305778 301782
      298786 293788 289790 284789 278788 273788 269790 265793
      261795 258795 251798 247805 245817 248822 254824 256828
      257833 249839 246847 247852 250855 256860 262864 267867
      270871 271876 270881 267891 267900 269907 273915 277921
      284928 286932 286935 290941 293943 296941 297937 305941
      310943 314941 318937 322935 332935 338935 342933 348928
      361945 366938 370934 373932 375926 375920 373918 369920
      363923 359923 356922 355919 355912 355907 357905 362896
      370888 374884 376880 378875 380871 386865 385851 383841
      382832 380827 372825 368826 366824 370820 375812 374809
      375808 378805 381803 385802
 0.01 380028 379024 377024 374021 372020 368020 367023 368027
      370030 370032 371035 373039 374035 375033 377030 380028
 0.25 561919 561902 560885 558856 555840 552823 549810 547802
      545796 540787 536780 529774 523778 513800 510811 510821
      511830 511839 510844 509849 506853 502860 496866 491869
      485870 480868 478861 477857 479852 480845 479840 476835
      472833 463833 455836 449841 446846 446853 449863 450868
      448871 445876 443882 443887 443891 439900 433907 426912
      421919 418930 416938 417941 425940 430939 435936 442932
      447930 450930 454931 458930 464925 469925 474926 481925
      483918 483910 485904 490895 493891 497890 502890 504893
      508900 510906 511913 511929 511947 511956 510963 503975
      495993 492005 491011 491017 492033 492039 490046 477062
      479067 482070 486072 491073 500072 507070 511068 515063
      521053 527045 531034 540014 546993 550978 554966 557951
      559938 561919
 0.25 453164 454161 454159 453158 451157 449156 448156 446157
      445160 446160 447162 447163 448165 450165 452164 453164
 0.25 455142 454132 452124 452114 450112 447114 445123 441130
      437136 435140 435145 435148 438152 442153 444150 445144
      446141 448142 450144 454144 455142
 0.25 436105 437100 434098 431098 429099 427101 425103 423107
      422110 424111 428112 430111 433109 435107 436105
 0.25 422155 423152 423150 423148 423147 422145 421143 420142
      418144 417147 417149 417151 417154 417156 418158 418159
      420157 422155 422155
 0.25 426886 426883 426881 425879 424879 423878 421878 420879
      419879 418881 418882 417884 417886 416889 417891 418892
      420892 422891 423891 423890 425888 425887 426886
 0.25 405042 405040 403037 401036 400036 398036 397037 396037
      394038 392038 392039 392040 392041 394043 396044 397044
      399044 400044 401043 403043 405043 405042
 0.25 401074 401069 399068 396067 394068 391070 389072 388075
      387079 388082 391083 394082 396080 397078 399076 401074
 0.25 338080 338079 337078 336077 334076 333075 331075 329075
      327077 326079 326081 327082 328083 329083 330084 332084
      334084 335084 336084 337082 338081 338080
 0.25 317110 317105 316101 312090 307083 299078 294076 289075
      278072 271069 262063 255059 245054 241053 237054 237060
      238063 244070 250077 257083 264090 277102 284107 295110
      305111 312113 315112 317110 317110
 0.25 324896 322890 319884 312880 308875 303862 299855 298846
      291835 287829 281824 279817 276813 268810 262807 257805
      253805 252807 253813 254816 258821 275842 280854 280859
      278861 278866 279871 281878 281887 280898 282908 284914
      288919 294924 297926 301926 309917 314916 317914 321909
      323902 324896
 0.25 315802 312792 308791 304793 295796 291798 285798 281797
      275797 271799 274803 276806 280809 288810 294816 297817
      303817 306816 310813 314805 315802
 0.50 558903 558886 557871 555853 552838 550827 546815 542802
      539797 537797 533806 529815 526828 523842 521855 519865
      517872 517879 520892 521900 521907 522920 524937 525944
      525952 517969 511978 509983 507991 508996 511001 511007
      513011 513020 511027 510034 509042 512045 515045 521040
      527030 532019 535010 538998 544987 547975 548960 549947
      553933 556919 558903
 0.50 479897 480892 478889 471890 466893 460898 453896 448898
      440907 436912 429916 426920 423928 424932 428932 435929
      448926 454925 460921 465919 472915 475910 477901 479897
 0.50 474853 474848 473845 468842 461843 456840 451845 455851
      456855 456859 457863 462864 467863 471858 474853
 0.50 308894 307889 305884 303880 301873 299869 297861 293851
      292847 287845 287850 289856 290860 291868 288872 287879
      286891 286898 290902 293905 299903 304901 307897 308894
 0.50 301086 299082 292081 284079 276076 263070 257066 251061
      245059 242058 241060 242064 254071 265080 271084 276090
      278096 283101 290102 291097 291094 291089 294088 301086
 0.50 301920 302918 302916 302914 301912 299912 298912 297911
      295911 293912 293914 293916 293917 294918 294920 295922
      297923 299923 300922 301921 301920
 0.50 282831 282829 280829 278828 277828 276827 274827 273828
      273830 274832 275832 277833 278833 280833 282832 282831
 0.50 274818 272817 270815 268814 264814 262813 258813 258814
      261816 263818 264819 268820 271820 274820 274818
 1.00 553895 554886 553876 552858 550851 548846 544842 541842
      539848 538856 537872 535886 535904 535912 537920 540920
      544917 547913 550907 553895
 1.00 445913 445911 445909 443911 443913 443916 445914 445913

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