Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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328
FXUS04 KWBC 051929
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
228 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 06/0000 UTC THRU FEB 09/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

DOWNEAST MAINE

THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES EARLY DAY 1.  WITH THE VERY FAST NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT---ANY PRECIPITATION THAT LINGERS ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE
AFTER 0000 UTC WILL BE BRIEF WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP
TOTALS/SNOWFALL.

SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF HEIGHT FALLS TO DROP INTO MEAN TROF
POSITION OVER THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS
THEY PUSH FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY DAY 1---INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. PW VALUES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SPARSE..BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN TO
CENTRAL GULF COAST.  SUBSEQUENTLY---SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TOTALS NOT
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS.  STILL---WITH THE AMPLIFYING
TREND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MAXIMA OF LARGE SCALE UVVS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW AND SURFACE FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN OK INTO NORTHEAST TX.  CONFIDENCE NOT
GREAT WITH DETAILS AS MANY OF THE MODELS SHOW A NARROW AXIS OF
MODERATE TOTALS...ALBEIT NOT IN THE SAME AREA.  THE GFS AXIS IS A
COMPROMISE POSITION BETWEEN THE NAM AND ECMWF..WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC.

A SECOND PRECIP MAX AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MID TO UPPER TX COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF
WILL STRENGTHEN AND PW VALUES WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS PRECIP MAX WILL LIKELY PUSH QUICKLY EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST---WHERE LIGHT PRECIP TOTALS MAY AFFECT.

FLORIDA

SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE DAY 1 ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AS PW VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS STRONGLY TO A MORE EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERN DIRECTION.  THIS
IS FROM A COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF
FLORIDA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE APPROACH OF THE AMPLIFYING
CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND CENTRAL GULF
COASTAL REGION.  HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL LIKELY TOWARD THE END
OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS THE LARGE SCALE UVVS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW AND MOVE INTO THE FL PENINSULA.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

STRONG NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY.  THE FAST MOVEMENT WILL
PRECLUDE VERY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS ---WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE WA/NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES---THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON COAST RANGE/OLYMPIC RANGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES FROM NORTHERN ID INTO NORTHWEST MT.

NORTHERN PLAINS

THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  AT THE MOMENT---MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP PUSHING EAST OF THE TERRAIN DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD---WITH
GREAT PRECIP/SNOWFALL POSSIBLE DAY 2 ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

DAYS 2/3...

OH-TN VALLEYS/APPALACHIANS...

WIDESPREAD BUT GENERALLY LOW VALUES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OH
VALLEY. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SMALLER-SCALE AND SUBTLE
RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY OF SOLUTIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH...A
MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED TO DERIVE THE QPF. SOME PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO FALL AS SNOW. REFER TO THE QPFHSD FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON SNOWFALL.

EAST COAST...

RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A SLIGHT WESTWARD AND SLOWER EXIT FOR
THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ACCOMPANYING THE INTENSE LOW OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINAS EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY GRAZING THE NORTHEAST COAST
BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH THE
WESTWARD EDGES LIKELY OVERLAPPING THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTLINE. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS CONSIDERED TOO SLOW AND/OR
WEST...ITS NESTED DOMAIN RUN...THE CONUS NEST APPEARS MUCH MORE
REALISTIC AND SETTLES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS...AND THUS
WAS BLENDED WITH NEARLY EQUAL PARTS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
TO INCORPORATE SOME MESOSCALE PROCESSES AS WELL AS TO BETTER
ADDRESS TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. THE EFFECT IS FOR 0.5 TO PERHAPS
MORE THAN 1 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT TO ZERO VALUES NEAR THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS. REFER TO THE QPFHSD FOR MORE INFORMATION ON ANY
WINTER WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/JAMES

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 477618 482623 485630 487633 488638 489649 488657 484662
      473671 462679 447683 444684 441683 436681 426672 422669
      420666 421663 420659 421655 424648 431637 437632
 0.01 556037 557026 555019 553009 550001 545989 537978 512928
      498903 500896 501889 501884 503880 502870 501868 501862
      500853 500841 502834 504826 502818 508813 509810 509805
      507784 504775 507768 510761 512755 513752 513746 511736
      506718 505713 504710 502700 497685 494684 489688 486691
      483692 479697 473702 467706 455705 449706 449714 448717
      449720 452723 453729 450733 447734 442735 432744 431748
      432754 434761 434769 435779 439779 441783 439787 423785
      418796 417803 417812 416818 420824 422827 425827 434826
      438826 441827 447827 451827 453831 448838 438844 434847
      429852 427858 428862 430863 441863 443865 443869 442873
      442879 440883 441904 455883 457885 456888 456893 455896
      450909 448916 448925 450927 452928 457927 462923 465915
      470909 472917 477931 481937 484943 488948 490951 491957
      495970 510994 511001 513011 512016 511019 506024 502027
      499033 495039 492046 488052 483049 477049 476059 477062
      477067 478071 481072 483077 481080 477083 474088 474097
      476099 479100 487101 491107 494112 496115 499116 504112
      508107 512100 515096 518090 525079 533072 541065 547060
      551055 555045 556037
 0.01 536212 538196 538188 536182 535175 532171 526165 521159
      515152 508146 503144 499140 494138 491134 484127 481124
      477124 474122 476116 476111 473108 469105 466106 464112
      463118 462122 464127 461130 456130 451131 450135 453138
      454144 449144 444146 438139 435141 435146 434152 436157
      442164 443169 445174 447178 444182 441185 442188 446189
      449190 450193 462184 465181 465176 463174 458171 457168
      459166 464167 468170 477176 479180 482183 487186 489189
      489193 488195 484197 476201 470206 465205 461203 458204
      458207 457212 455212 451213 447214 441213 438214 434217
      426218 423220 422222 422227 421228 417230 414230 412228
      413221 407215 405217 408221 408233 405234 401231 398233
      397238 389243 383248 386252 391254 401254 407256 411256
      419254 430255 448258 468261 478265 483268 486273 490283
      496284 505290 508289 511286 517277 521266 522259 522252
      519239 517234 515230 509222 507218 506213 506207 508203
      515209 521218 525223 528224 530223 536212
 0.01 482229 483227 482225 481225 479225 478225 479226 480227
      481229 482230 482229
 0.01 459108 455100 451096 445096 436095 432091 428089 427090
      429094 432100 428103 428106 430108 429113 431118 434116
      437114 441117 443122 446123 450120 453116 456112 459108
 0.01 375972 374966 372961 367960 362961 354956 345952 334934
      328928 319924 304910 297905 290897 287886 285882 281878
      276877 272879 265886 259893 257898 257901 258908 257914
      254918 253923 253930 255936 256940 254945 254950 255956
      256960 257964 259964 277974 282982 286985 289989 293991
      296993 297996 302996 306994 323984 325981 322977 316976
      319973 323970 328968 332969 337972 345979 348983 353985
      356987 362988 370983 373977 375972
 0.01 352744 350733 346730 338735 333740 322752 318757 312763
      306768 298772 283779 252792 244796 239799 232805 228811
      229822 232829 238834 241836 246836 256834 264831 271827
      280826 288823 293823 296822 306819 312813 322803 327798
      329793 331790 333787 333781 335772 343759 352744
 0.25 532200 533195 532192 530185 528178 525172 522167 518163
      509156 502154 499153 497151 495145 492140 487134 483131
      478132 478134 480137 485141 487146 496153 495156 493158
      489154 479155 473155 469151 464149 463151 465154 473162
      477165 484168 487174 488176 492177 496179 501184 512191
      515195 518201 521207 524208 530205 532200
 0.25 515259 516253 515249 513242 511234 507227 500214 497209
      495206 492204 487203 482204 471209 464211 460214 454216
      449217 442218 438218 436220 435223 437226 444229 456228
      459230 455231 450233 444235 439238 441242 443241 449241
      463243 469243 474247 480250 485255 492266 501277 505278
      509273 511267 512263 515259
 0.25 492240 492235 492229 489224 484223 479222 476222 472226
      472229 475230 479232 481237 483241 487238 489239 492240
 0.25 474644 471636 464636 456638 448642 441646 436651 436657
      439662 442663 446663 454659 460655 467651 473646 474644
 0.25 480852 481849 480847 478845 478844 476843 475843 473845
      473848 473849 474850 474853 475854 476855 477855 478855
      479855 480853 480852
 0.25 428245 429243 428240 426238 425237 423237 421237 419237
      417238 416239 415240 415241 414243 415245 415246 416247
      418247 419247 420247 421246 423246 424246 425246 427245
      428245
 0.25 341963 337956 334952 330949 325945 321942 316939 312941
      311943 314949 317952 322956 327959 332962 337964 341963
 0.25 328768 327764 323766 320769 312777 304787 295794 287800
      284802 283806 286810 290812 297811 300808 305804 312795
      318786 324777 328768
 0.25 296954 291939 289931 290928 290922 286916 285908 283900
      279894 273891 269897 267905 266914 264917 263921 263927
      265931 265935 268943 271950 270957 274962 278963 283962
      290961 295956 296954
 0.25 264802 263798 260797 253799 247802 243807 240810 238813
      238817 238822 240825 243825 248826 250822 254818 258812
      262807 264802
 0.50 527201 529195 527191 524182 520176 515171 511169 507168
      504168 501170 500173 502176 506182 512187 518193 521199
      524202 527201
 0.50 510246 509238 505232 500218 496212 491209 484206 479208
      468213 463215 457219 456222 458224 463225 468221 470220
      474219 488222 491224 493226 495234 498241 502246 504249
      507250 510246
 0.50 494259 493256 494259 494259
 0.50 480244 480241 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232
      475232 474233 473234 472236 472239 473241 474242 475242
      476244 478245 479245 480244
 0.50 330954 328952 327951 325952 323949 323950 325952 327953
      327954 328954 330955 330954
 0.50 285956 286954 286952 285951 283951 281951 279951 277951
      277952 277954 277956 279957 281957 283957 285956 285956
 1.00 503241 503238 502238 502236 501234 500232 500231 498231
      498232 498234 498235 498237 499238 500240 500241 502242
      503241
 1.00 484217 485215 484212 484211 483210 481209 479210 477211
      476212 475214 477216 478216 480217 482217 483217 484217
 1.00 479238 477235 476234 475235 475237 475238 477240 478241
      479238

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 474619 481618 485622 492630 498638 500645 503650 510662
      513667 514674 517696 519707 521715 522726 523738 523746
      523755 522757 522762 520766 513774 509779 504778 498778
      495779 493777 486778 483780 481782 482787 483790 487798
      492812 496825 503852 507867 513881 524905 530917 533923
      535929 546947 553957 556960 560965 561966 561972 560982
      557001 554021 552028 549033 543040 537049 527053 523053
      520055 513054 507054 501052 492046 483037 477029 471019
      469015 467012 465011 456003 453999 450995 438969 439963
      439958 437955 431945 431938 433933 433924 435920 450903
      453898 455896 454893 452890 444880 442877 442874 442870
      440864 441859 439856 436857 425858 422854 421850 420846
      433830 440818 442816 439813 437813 435811 430806 428804
      426805 423806 421808 417807 420797 425788 428782 429774
      430768 429762 431747 431742 430740 427734 427729 429728
      433725 436725 436722 437714 444706 446702 448700 447697
      445693 444689 442686 441677 442674 441669 443654 442637
      455626
 0.01 470332 474329 478324 487316 488313 491313 494311 500311
      505308 510297 511292 513290 515280 518273 519264 519260
      520257 521253 520250 513240 509227 502217 497213 491211
      488210 486212 484219 484222 487226 488229 486233 484234
      481233 478232 476230 473233 470240 469243 471244 477247
      477252 475258 471264 466275 463282 461291 458309 457317
      458325 457327
 0.01 478162 475155 471148 466143 464136 463131 460131 458134
      458138 458144 456145 454147 455150 458158 459163 462163
      471166 476162 478162
 0.01 462111 463099 461091 457083 452076 448070 441067 437068
      434070 434076 436078 444081 450088 455093 457097 458100
      456102 452095 445095 440095 437096 433104 431108 434110
      437112 441114 446121 448124 450122 456116 462112 462111
 0.01 448051 448048 447043 447039 445038 443036 440035 438033
      436033 436036 438040 439043 441045 442048 444050 446051
      448051
 0.01 415076 415073 413070 412068 414066 416066 416062 414061
      412063 409063 407065 405065 401067 405070 406070 408075
      410076 413076 415076
 0.01 396687 395679 389677 382674 367678 358684 346690 338695
      319709 309717 301722 281735 270741 264747 256757 253761
      250765 242799 241806 241813 242819 246821 253820 258818
      263816 271814 277813 282814 292816 303821 316820 324819
      330819 333819 337816 341812 344808 347803 350796 359776
      371756 377746 382736 389724 393714 396708 397702 396691
      396687
 0.01 305933 305924 303920 294912 284906 275901 270900 263901
      259904 255908 253913 255919 260920 268920 279924 284927
      288931 292933 294935 297936 301936 305933
 0.25 510257 511252 509249 504249 501251 498252 495255 492258
      492265 495267 497272 501270 504268 507264 509259 510257
 0.25 526997 523979 523969 522960 520951 517944 510931 506924
      504916 498899 493886 488878 484874 480873 476874 473880
      472891 473902 475922 475931 473939 466952 465956 465962
      469967 473974 475982 477992 479999 483006 487010 492016
      497021 502025 506026 509026 516023 517020 518015 519006
      521003 526997
 0.25 496673 495667 493661 489649 485639 483636 479632 472632
      469633 467639 472648 473654 475659 477664 481666 487671
      490674 494675 496673
 0.25 378716 377709 375705 369700 366698 361697 356697 351699
      344704 337709 325721 314734 307740 298744 289748 285753
      282759 282763 278770 273777 265781 261783 258787 253794
      250801 250806 252809 257809 264808 274806 284806 293807
      304807 313809 321811 329811 333810 337808 342801 350785
      356768 370733 375724 378716
 0.50 494998 495995 495993 494990 492988 490987 489990 488992
      489994 489995 490996 491997 492998 493999 494998
 0.50 367719 366714 364710 359706 356705 350706 343710 338715
      334719 327727 323731 313741 301751 296757 292763 290772
      287779 285781 281783 274785 265789 260793 255799 255803
      258804 268802 277801 296801 311804 326807 333806 338801
      343795 346789 351773 362742 366730 367719
 1.00 357739 357732 356726 350719 342722 334728 323741 311754
      307760 303769 303774 303780 304787 306792 308795 312797
      320800 328801 332799 336797 340790 344781 350763 353755
      356746 357739
 1.50 352746 350740 345735 342734 339735 335741 331745 327749
      317758 313763 311771 311778 313787 316792 323795 329795
      335791 338787 341781 346767 351753 352746
 2.00 348754 346750 341748 336750 333753 326758 319763 317767
      317774 318785 320789 324790 331789 334786 338782 341775
      345765 347756 348754
 3.00 342761 339759 335760 330762 327764 324769 324773 325777
      329780 334778 336776 338771 340767 341763 342761

24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 514269 515261 514256 512251 511246 509241 506238 502240
      502244 503249 504255 505260 507264 510269 514269
 0.01 526923 526899 523889 522884 521877 519873 519868 515856
      512847 509841 492814 489805 485800 480790 476785 472778
      470776 467779 458781 455783 451784 445780 436780 428780
      423781 420780 412780 409779 404779 390775 382774 378772
      373773 365772 358774 351788 353795 357802 359807 357811
      353818 346829 338843 337852 339863 341868 343871 348877
      352881 355882 356885 356890 361893 362898 364903 371916
      389943 393947 398952 408960 420949 431954 445960 450964
      455971 459974 463974 470979 473979 477982 484983 487982
      490980 495980 497978 500978 502973 502968 504963 504960
      506957 506951 509944 513942 517942 522934 525928 526923
 0.01 458672 457665 455659 447655 441655 436655 427655 416658
      405663 398668 391671 387674 384677 378679 373678 367679
      357681 350687 342692 338695 335699 332704 329708 324715
      318723 311730 307737 304748 306762 310771 312776 316778
      320781 325782 337781 346777 363765 369759 376752 382745
      383742 387741 391742 396741 401739 410734 421728 428722
      435716 441708 447700 452691 454685 456680 458672
 0.01 414875 414870 412866 412863 410860 408861 405864 403865
      401867 402871 402873 404876 405878 407882 408885 410884
      411882 412877 414875
 0.01 400894 399892 397890 395888 393885 390883 388881 386880
      384881 385884 386886 388888 390890 392892 394895 397896
      400894
 0.25 472892 472885 470880 467880 464884 463889 462896 461900
      462908 463913 465916 469915 471910 471902 472895 472892
 0.25 465817 464811 462807 457802 453799 450798 441799 426806
      411813 394817 386820 382821 383816 393803 393798 388798
      379802 368813 359825 355832 353836 355838 358835 361834
      368836 365843 364847 368849 376844 381839 387833 393829
      400825 403825 407827 407832 406836 405839 409842 424835
      433833 439833 444834 448833 457829 460827 462824 465817
 0.25 438678 437675 434672 427669 418669 410672 396680 390684
      382689 373691 366690 362689 358690 352695 340705 336710
      330717 323730 317745 315753 315758 317763 323769 329771
      337769 344765 350762 357757 368746 372740 374737 379735
      395730 404727 410723 416717 420711 430698 436688 437683
      438678
 0.50 426683 423678 417676 412678 404682 393688 383697 380699
      376699 371697 363696 358698 352702 347707 339716 332728
      326740 323746 322753 324761 330764 338763 344761 350757
      356752 364744 372733 383725 397721 405718 409714 418704
      424694 426689 426683
 1.00 357743 358740 356738 351739 347741 342744 339746 337749
      335754 338758 342757 346755 349753 352750 355746 357743

$$





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