Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 301811
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
110 PM EST WED NOV 30 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 01/0000 UTC THRU DEC 02/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND...

THE 12Z NAM MIGHT BE TOO STRONG WITH THE COASTAL LOW AND THEREFORE
POSSIBLY TOO HEAVY WITH ITS ACCOMPANYING QPF ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE THEREFORE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
AGREED UPON WEAKER SCENARIO OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WHICH
IS A SLIGHT REDUCTION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ELSEWHERE...THE
12Z NAM APPEARS MORE REASONABLE AND IS CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS OF 0.25 TO 1.0
INCHES EXPECTED. THE SOLUTION SPREAD AND THEREFORE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH FOR A DAY 1 FORECAST. REFER TO THE QPFHSD
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON SNOWFALL.

MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST...

AXES OF SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY HAVE DEVELOPED FROM
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AS WELL AS FROM
COLUMBUS GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF TO HELP SUSTAIN OR POSSIBLY
REINVIGORATE LINES OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC. USED A COMBINATION OF OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS AND A CONSENSUS OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE TO DEPICT THE
PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION TROUGH 12Z THU BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS INVOLVING GLOBAL GUIDANCE
THEREAFTER. CONFIDENCE IS NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE GIVEN RELIANCE
UPON THE MESOSCALE OR SMALLER FOR RAINFALL PROCESSES.

NORTHWEST...

GENERALLY SHORT-LIVED AND LIGHT ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THE SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
INFLUENCING THE REGION...WITH BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS OF 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES EXPECTED...
PARTICULARLY FOR THE COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES...WHICH ARE
AGREE-UPON BY MOST GUIDANCE INCLUDING HAVING A RELATIVELY SMALL
SOLUTION SPREAD.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

JAMES

24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 484615 490628 496644 503660 509679 514697 515703 517707
      516715 518740 520768 521788 524809 526813 527820 529829
      531833 533837 538842 544855 547859 547864 548871 549875
      549881 551887 550895 542909 532914 526915 520920 516923
      514926 509926 503925 500923 497919 496914 493915 492918
      492924 491927 491930 491934 489937 489941 489953 489963
      490975 493981 494985 492988 492004 493008 493011 490020
      487026 484030 481032 476034 472036 469036 454964 449961
      444958 440957 439953 435947 431942 426933 422919 419903
      418889 418884 420880 413868 413863 415859 415854 416851
      424843 428841 430838 434833 428830 424829 420828 416821
      414820 411822 402823 395823 388820 383825 380830 374835
      361843 357841 355837 358830 361823 359817 357816 352817
      345820 340824 327835 315843 295858 288867 281869 276872
      265880 253875 250867 250862 253859 261851 264848 268845
      267840 270838 280829 279824 281818 282815 280811 278809
      277805 274805 273807 267811 264814 259814 256811 256807
      247800 252797 257796 260794 266790 271786 276781 280773
      285765 288758 291753 294747 299741 305735 308731 317720
      320715 325710 343684 348676 355669 376654 378653 380652
      381651 383650 385650 387650 388650 390649 390648 391647
      393646 395646 397645 398644
 0.01 536210 537199 536196 536191 530176 527169 521163 522160
      525158 527156 529151 530144 528141 521136 515134 511133
      506132 498131 492130 480119 479114 480109 483108 486111
      491114 492114 495110 495106 492104 489101 485099 482097
      478099 474093 455097 435086 436088 435090 431089 430087
      426087 425090 429098 421107 421111 418112 415110 413106
      413100 412096 412090 411087 407086 405088 403100 403105
      400104 398101 397103 397107 398110 396112 392112 389114
      389116 391119 390121 389124 394124 397126 391129 384143
      387148 393150 395152 398156 396161 390165 388168 387172
      388176 392177 394187 394191 395195 396199 393198 387191
      382187 378187 376189 379192 382195 383199 383202 387204
      396206 399206 400209 403208 406207 407201 408195 410191
      414188 419187 420183 425174 430170 431165 430161 427159
      425155 426148 429144 429139 432138 436143 434151 436160
      437163 439168 443177 442182 441185 436191 430197 431200
      436201 442201 443206 445206 464181 465176 467173 473175
      475178 479178 485184 488190 489194 489198 487199 473205
      466208 460210 453213 446213 438214 433218 427220 425223
      426227 426235 423241 421244 422248 427253 457252 469252
      477252 479254 482254 486256 487260 492268 495276 500285
      505288 508289 510287 512285 514281 512271 509264 506257
      499251 495243 484236 482232 478229 472230 468227 471224
      477222 482222 484223 485226 490232 493233 496236 499240
      507253 510254 513253 516252 518247 520235 518225 509212
      505205 502202 502197 505196 508196 512199 514203 523217
      528219 532216 536210
 0.01 466127 466124 465122 463120 462119 460116 459116 458118
      458121 459123 459126 461128 463129 464129 466127
 0.01 452085 453078 451075 448070 447067 443067 441069 438069
      434071 434076 436076 437073 440072 442072 444075 446077
      449081 452085 452085
 0.01 413073 414068 410065 405065 400064 396066 392068 394071
      396073 397078 401078 403074 404071 406070 408072 410075
      413073 413073
 0.01 297790 296788 293787 289787 287790 286792 284794 281796
      280798 281800 285801 289801 291799 293797 294794 296792
      297790
 0.25 477618 483626 487632 490639 495657 501678 509718 510729
      510741 510753 509766 507800 504819 503823 501825 494828
      489833 483834 478830 475825 469819 468815 465812 462806
      457803 452805 446805 444795 440796 432798 429800 426803
      423805 419804 414800 413795 414790 417784 421778 424771
      425768 424762 421752 421747 420747 416754 403775 398780
      394782 390782 386782 383784 378789 371800 367804 362808
      358808 356805 355800 356796 358788 362780 365776 370773
      378771 384769 382762 380753 381746 385739 392729 401717
      404710 406703 408695 408689 407686 405683 402685 399689
      392700 384712 376724 371735 368751 358761 356766 356770
      357777 354789 352797 349802 342814 332824 322833 312839
      307844 301846 298849 293849 290849 287845 289840 291835
      298824 305812 309807 315803 317805 317808 314814 317815
      320813 325809 330804 335798 337793 333793 330795 325797
      323797 322794 323788 326781 328774 328764 330756 333750
      340736 344721 346706 348699 351693 356684 364674 370668
      376665 382660 386659 409659 416646 421640 429636 435634
      441631 448629 452626
 0.25 490216 489214 487214 486212 484212 482211 481212 479212
      478213 477214 476215 477215 478216 480216 482217 483218
      485218 487218 488217 490216 490216
 0.25 480244 481241 480240 479238 477236 476236 474237 473239
      473240 474242 475242 476243 478244 480244 480244
 0.25 486141 486138 485138 484136 483135 482135 481134 479133
      478132 477132 476131 474131 473133 473136 473138 473140
      474141 475143 476144 478143 480144 481144 483144 484143
      485143 486141
 0.25 482165 482161 481158 477152 474148 470145 463143 458145
      454149 452151 452156 455162 460165 464166 471167 477168
      482165
 0.25 471218 471217 470216 468216 466215 465216 463216 461216
      459217 457218 456219 457220 459220 461221 462221 464221
      466221 467221 469220 471219 471218
 0.25 472890 473882 471875 469870 466870 465876 464881 463886
      461893 461898 462903 465908 468904 470898 471892 472890
 0.25 451220 450219 449219 447219 447220 447221 448222 449222
      450221 451220
 0.25 429859 428857 427857 426857 424858 423860 424862 424863
      426862 427862 427861 429859
 0.50 502731 502710 497690 488650 486643 483636 479630 474625
      468624 461628 459634 457642 452644 447647 441647 432649
      429650 427652 422657 420664 419674 420682 421688 420696
      418703 413717 410723 406729 398738 394744 390749 389753
      389756 396753 398756 397761 396764 396770 399772 402770
      406765 413753 420742 424736 429731 438722 444718 447719
      448725 448733 446741 442747 435751 432755 431759 432763
      432770 430773 428775 424780 420785 420790 421794 423799
      426798 429794 435792 440787 444780 445777 449776 455778
      460780 465785 472785 477787 482790 486790 489787 495775
      498768 500759 501753 502744 502731
 0.50 388686 387678 383674 379674 377677 374682 368693 362704
      356715 349726 347731 346739 345746 342752 336762 332775
      327787 326790 328793 334789 342781 349769 354759 359747
      364735 371725 377714 383701 386693 388686
 0.50 370790 371788 370786 369784 367785 365786 364787 364788
      363789 362791 361794 361796 361798 363799 365798 366796
      367795 368794 369793 369791 370790
 0.50 348794 348789 346786 341792 338798 333804 324814 319819
      312823 304824 298828 295835 295839 297841 302836 306830
      313832 320829 326825 332820 337815 340810 344803 347796
      348794
 1.00 482713 481702 479693 475687 471681 467678 462678 460686
      455687 451692 452696 455698 461699 462701 460704 457710
      454718 455728 456733 458736 463740 465742 468744 481737
      481731 482723 482713
 1.00 444683 441672 438668 432666 429670 428678 428694 427702
      426708 423715 421721 416731 417734 419733 423727 426722
      428717 433706 435700 439694 443690 444683

$$




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