Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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674
FXUS04 KWBC 220914
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
514 AM EDT SAT APR 22 2017


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 22/1200 UTC THRU APR 25/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...TENNESSEE VALLEY / LOWER OH VALLEY / CENTRAL-SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS / MID ATLANTIC...

THE SLOW MOVING...LARGELY W-E ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PIVOT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...DEEPENING AND IN-TURN BECOMING MORE
NEUTRALLY-TILTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
WELL CLUSTERED MASS FIELD WISE DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...BOTH
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...WITH THE EVOLVING PATTERN LEADING TO A
MODEL CONSENSUS OF A ~1008 MB SURFACE LOW IN NORTHWEST GA BY 12Z
SUN. THE DECELERATING SYSTEM ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS (UPPER DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH PROLONGED RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION (FRONTOGENETIC) FORCING VIA THE UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC-NORTHEAST) WILL FAVOR A BROAD AREA OF
OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN TN/KY
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OF SOUTHERN
WV...WESTERN VA...AND NORTHWEST NC. THE ROBUST DEEP-LAYER
DYNAMICAL FORCING WITHIN A SHARPENING LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE AND MATURING WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) WILL CONTINUE THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT SAT-SUN NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT...EVEN AS THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DIMINISHES PER THE MODELS. THIS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WHERE THE UPTICK IN
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH MODEST PW AND
MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES WILL FAVOR OROGRAPHIC AUGMENTATION WITH
THE RAINFALL RATES. WPC QPF WAS COMPOSED OF A MUTLI-MODEL BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND UKMET ALONG WITH WPC`S HIGH-RES BIAS-CORRECTED
ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH YIELDED AREAL-AVERAGE MAX TOTALS OF 1.5-2.0+
INCHES ACROSS EASTERN TN... SOUTHEAST KY...WESTERN VA...SOUTHERN
WV...AND NORTHWEST NC. PER THE ARRAY OF HIGH-RES CAM
GUIDANCE...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3-5" ARE ANTICIPATED.

IN TERMS OF THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 1...WPC
DELINEATED A FAIRLY BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA WHICH ENCOMPASSED NOT
ONLY THE AFOREMENTIONED MAXIMUM DETERMINISTIC QPF...BUT ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST NATIONAL WATER MODEL (NWM) SOIL MOISTURE
GUIDANCE...LATEST FFG VALUES...AND THE SSEO 40 KM NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBABILITIES ABOVE 30% WHERE 3 AND 6 HOURLY SSEO MEAN QPF EXCEEDS
THE CURRENT FFG.

...SOUTH FLORIDA...

SLOW MOVING WEAK UPPER LOW WEST OF THE FL STRAITS WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERSISTENT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS SOUTH FL WILL
MAKE FOR A RATHER NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSED OVER
THE KEYS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FL PENINSULA...AND IN
PARTICULAR THE WESTERN KEYS CLOSER TO THE LOW-MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND THUS MOST CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL MOIST INFLOW.
MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES (WHICH
IS ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL) WILL
PROVIDE A RICH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE THAT WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
FAVORABLE DYNAMICAL FORCING IN PRODUCING HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
RATES. WPCQPF...USING A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WHICH INCLUDED HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE/MEANS... INDICATED A MAX OF 2-2.5" OVER THE WESTERN KEYS.
SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL CAMS WERE DECIDEDLY MORE
BULLISH...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z NSSL WRF WHICH NOTED 4-6". THIS IS
ALSO WHERE THE LATEST SSEO 40 KM NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES SHOW A
>30% CHANCE OF 3 HOUR QPF EXCEEDING THE FFG...PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.


DAYS 2 AND 3


...SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...

A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. AT 12Z SUNDAY
STRUNG OUT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
CONSOLIDATING INTO A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN
VALLEY. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH MUCH OF
VA AND NORTHERN NC LIKELY WEDGED INTO THE COOL STABLE AIRMASS BY
THE DAY SUNDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THIS STABLE REGION WILL BE DRIVEN BY
LONG DURATION FAVORABLE SYNOPTICS (ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW
AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET) AND UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIANS. NOT
EXPECTING RAINFALL RATES TO BE ALL THAT HIGH IN THIS AREA...BUT
THE THE STEADY RAINFALL WILL BE PROLONGED AS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CLOSED LOW ALLOWS FOR THE RAIN SHIELD TO PIVOT ON PORTIONS OF
VA/NC. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR 1-3" OF RAIN ON DAY 2 (12Z
SUN-12Z MON)...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
LONG DURATION STEADY RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SATURATE THE
GROUND...AND SOME FLOODING/FLASH FLOOD ISSUES MAY DEVELOP INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK
AREAS. SOME MODEL SPREAD WITH THE EXACT AXIS OF HIGHEST RAINFALL.
THE 0Z NAM/ECMWF ARE THE FURTHEST NORTHWEST SOLUTIONS ACROSS
VA...WITH THE 0Z UKMET/GEM THE FURTHEST SOUTHEAST AND THE 0Z GFS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE. NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN ANY ONE SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME...WITH THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION AT LEAST PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT ON THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS
SYSTEM. SOME OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE ARE ACTUALLY FURTHER SOUTH
CLOSER TO THE UKMET SOLUTION...WHICH MAY ADD SOME MERIT TO ITS
OUTPUT. TEND TO THINK THE NAM/ECMWF ARE PROBABLY A BIT TOO FAR
NORTHWEST WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHWEST VA...WITH
SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE GFS/UKMET MORE LIKELY. WPC QPF DID HEDGE A
BIT IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD...BUT IS GENERALLY
PRETTY CLOSE TO A MULTI MODEL BLEND.

FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
GA...SC AND SOUTHERN NC...RAINFALL WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES ACROSS THIS
REGION. A BIT CONCERNED FOR SOME TRAINING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS
AREA...GIVEN THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY...PROLONGED SYNOPTIC
ASCENT...AND CORFIDI VECTORS GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.
THUS WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE GET SOME TOTALS HIGHER THAN
THE CURRENT GLOBAL GUIDANCE...WITH LOCALIZED 2-4" AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS THE LACK OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT. HOWEVER STILL ANTICIPATE AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS
AREA IN THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA/SC...CONVECTION THAT FORMS SHOULD GENERALLY BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH LESS OF A TRAINING THREAT.

AN INTERESTING EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED INTO DAY 3 (12Z
MON-12Z TUE). EXPECT THE CLOSED LOW TO TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE WAVE MOVING
ACROSS FLORIDA TO BE CAPTURED BY THE SYSTEM. THE MAIN IMPACT OF
THIS WILL BE INCREASING PWAT VALUES...WITH ANOMALIES APPROACHING
2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BY MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN NC. BEGINNING TO
GET CONCERNED AS INGREDIENTS ARE APPEARING TO COME TOGETHER FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN NC ON
MONDAY. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL INCREASE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION...WITH A STATIONARY STRONG LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO SETUP OVER COASTAL NC. EXPECT TO SEE AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS BOUNDARY OFF THE
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN SUSTAINED INSTABILITY. COMBINE THE
FAVORABLE UPPER AND LOW LEVEL SETUP WITH IMPRESSIVE PWAT
VALUES...AND A FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS PROBABLE. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL
TOTALS...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLUCTUATION ON THE EXACT
LOCATION. THIS EVENT IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT AND THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT COMPLEX...SO STILL TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT OVER
EASTERN NC INTO MONDAY...AND SOMETHING WORTH CLOSELY MONITORING.
HAVE ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR EASTERN NC...BUT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR AS SOME CHANCE THE SETUP COULD END UP WARRANTING A HIGHER
RISK LEVEL AT SOME POINT. STAYED A BIT CONSERVATIVE WITH QPF
AMOUNTS FOR NOW...GENERALLY FOLLOWING A MULTI MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
BLEND.

...FLORIDA...

A WAVE MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY. SOME QUESTION AS TO THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY BY THIS TIME...BUT WITH VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES
LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL IS A
POSSIBILITY. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING ON A FUTURE ISSUANCE DEPENDING ON TRENDS IN THE
GUIDANCE.


...NORTHWEST...

PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
MULTIPLE WAVES OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION. SOME QPF DIFFERENCES
WERE NOTED WITHIN THE GUIDANCE. FOR NOW WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
MIDDLE GROUND CONSENSUS SOLUTION.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SD/NE BY
MONDAY...WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOW TRACK. SOME LINGERING QPF DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WPC FOLLOWED A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION...WHICH ENDS UP PRETTY CLOSE
TO THE 0Z GEFS MEAN...KEEPING 0.5" AMOUNTS FROM NORTHEAST ND INTO
NORTHERN MN.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

HURLEY/CHENARD


24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 540184 540167 538155 533147 533133 532126 529121 527116
      523112 518111 514113 514118 515122 514126 513135 507134
      502134 500139 498144 495145 493143 489136 483128 478126
      472125 466124 461125 457127 456130 457134 455138 451136
      449133 449129 447125 444120 441121 438123 435126 429132
      424141 421145 417151 414154 412160 412162 415163 417163
      419161 422157 425155 429154 430156 433159 437163 437168
      434169 431168 427170 428175 429177 428181 423183 421187
      422191 424191 426189 430186 435184 440186 442189 440192
      439197 442198 446202 448199 456192 463188 461185 462182
      464181 468179 472176 479167 481166 483168 485172 488177
      486184 489191 488194 487192 485191 484196 478202 474204
      470208 462211 427220 423220 421222 420226 417230 411230
      393232 382234 381239 386241 392242 395241 406244 417251
      425257 441269 449278 456284 464289 471288 475286 478281
      482278 485276 487281 490284 498287 504290 509289 515282
      519272 523261 525245 528226 530225 532222 534217 536199
      540184
 0.01 522863 522841 520824 515811 508800 511794 513787 514780
      514771 512763 508757 498755 495756 493758 489762 486765
      484772 481777 479786 477800 467861 465869 465879 464885
      464894 463902 463912 464921 465930 469962 474994 475005
      476012 478026 482042 483048 486053 493054 495048 496039
      495032 494024 495022 497026 501029 504029 504026 506018
      506008 506001 506992 506970 506949 511917 518887 520873
      520866 522863
 0.01 500695 499683 496675 490674 488665 480657 476654 471652
      465651 459648 451650 445652 437655 433662 426673 418685
      412696 408702 404705 399708 397706 396702 389686 381677
      375676 368677 358685 350698 346711 343723 339735 330761
      324775 323782 318786 311788 304792 300796 298801 298804
      300807 304810 311809 316808 327801 330799 332800 336806
      337815 337820 336823 334833 331839 328846 323851 314859
      309861 304864 299867 295872 285897 279908 275914 273921
      273925 275928 274933 274937 274941 275943 282943 288941
      290940 291943 290949 286954 284959 285964 289964 292962
      295956 299950 301949 304949 314946 319943 326939 335931
      339928 344925 354920 359920 362922 362927 364932 364936
      366938 369938 372936 374934 377936 380938 389940 390941
      392938 395931 396927 396922 395905 394887 394878 394869
      396850 397833 399817 402799 404783 405774 406770 406765
      407758 409752 412739 415732 417723 422712 426705 431702
      439699 441697 445696 449697 450701 445706 440710 437712
      437714 439718 438721 437727 439731 441732 445733 450729
      459727 466723 474720 476718 480717 487714 491711 495705
      500695
 0.01 495158 494156 492153 491150 489150 488149 486147 485148
      484149 483149 481150 481151 480152 479155 480157 482158
      483158 485158 487159 488159 490159 492160 493160 495158
 0.01 475084 473081 469083 466083 463080 461069 457066 457062
      456059 454061 452059 453056 451053 449057 445054 438047
      437041 434040 427044 424043 423041 421036 417033 412032
      406032 402030 398029 394031 390029 388033 385042 385046
      382048 377048 372047 368050 365047 361049 363052 368052
      373052 376054 384058 391055 395057 398057 401056 404058
      406057 405053 400052 397050 394048 395045 400045 401045
      404047 407047 410052 412052 415051 420053 423064 424067
      428066 432065 434066 433069 432076 434082 438083 443074
      447077 450082 453085 456086 461087 467092 466095 467098
      470096 473093 471090 475084
 0.01 469036 473031 471026 471021 468018 466021 464028 462030
      459032 455035 452037 455039 458040 462038 465038 469036
 0.01 427208 426203 421202 415205 411209 408213 405217 400222
      401226 405227 407225 411223 415218 418213 423210 427208
 0.01 426089 425084 422081 422079 420076 417076 413071 412068
      408068 403070 405072 408073 409077 413080 418083 421088
      426089
 0.01 397073 398071 398069 396066 394066 394068 394071 396071
      397073 397074 397073
 0.01 283781 283771 280766 275763 268761 261761 255763 250767
      246772 240783 233793 230800 229806 231824 235838 238845
      240851 241861 243867 247871 254873 257872 259870 263866
      266860 266851 264844 265838 268833 268828 272826 279824
      282823 283821 280816 275813 269809 272802 274797 278791
      281786 283781
 0.01 283999 282991 279985 277978 276975 274974 268970 261968
      255968 250970 244973 240978 237983 236987 236991 239997
      244001 250003 254007 256010 258012 263015 271015 275011
      278005 280003 282000 283999
 0.25 525158 526156 526153 526150 525150 524148 524147 523146
      521145 520145 518145 517145 516148 515150 515153 515154
      516156 517156 518158 520159 521159 521160 522160 523160
      525159 525158
 0.25 511260 512251 510244 508237 505231 502224 500217 497212
      489211 483210 479211 474215 473218 476218 484220 487225
      492238 487237 484237 481234 480231 477228 473227 468230
      462230 458234 453236 442237 443240 447242 454243 460245
      466245 473248 478252 484256 487261 494274 498279 503283
      506282 508279 507269 506265 508262 511260
 0.25 471666 469663 465662 459660 453658 445659 439663 434669
      433673 434678 437679 441678 449677 455674 461671 469667
      471666
 0.25 462226 463223 462222 460221 459221 457221 457222 458224
      460225 461226 462226
 0.25 396768 396756 392749 392739 392732 392721 389712 387707
      385705 379705 366711 355717 351722 349729 345745 346753
      348754 351753 359744 363738 365736 369737 369741 369744
      367750 357757 354763 352768 352779 353790 353798 352806
      350815 348821 342832 338838 336845 335854 331860 314877
      305889 303895 302903 303912 302919 302928 303931 306931
      311928 316923 326914 339908 343905 347900 353897 361895
      365895 369896 372902 376909 381911 384907 385897 385878
      387859 389841 390826 392808 394801 395791 396779 396768
 0.25 265784 264773 260770 256771 251776 246784 238798 235806
      235812 236818 238827 241837 244847 247857 251863 255862
      257858 257852 256848 255844 257838 260832 261821 261809
      262805 263800 265784
 0.50 504276 503268 501261 498255 496250 493245 489241 486241
      484243 486249 488254 491261 494267 497272 502277 504276
 0.50 504244 504239 502233 500227 499224 496220 492217 487216
      487220 491224 492228 493233 496238 498242 501246 503245
      504244
 0.50 481244 481242 481239 480237 480236 479233 478231 476231
      475230 473231 473232 471233 470235 470236 470238 471241
      473243 474244 474245 476245 477245 478245 479245 481244
 0.50 391787 386744 385734 382727 379726 377727 376731 375742
      373750 369755 364761 360767 355806 353814 350822 342836
      339843 340852 341855 341861 338869 335877 333880 335882
      341887 344889 347887 350886 355885 362886 369883 374878
      377870 380862 382854 384845 386835 386824 386815 389806
      391796 391787
 0.50 357730 358727 358725 356724 355724 353726 352729 351731
      350733 350734 350736 350738 351739 353739 354737 356735
      356734 357732 357730 357730
 0.50 335895 336890 333887 333882 329882 325881 321881 317885
      314892 314903 313911 314914 319913 324910 330904 334900
      335895
 0.50 258822 258816 256811 256801 255796 253793 249792 245793
      239799 237808 237813 238820 241829 245837 249837 253835
      255832 256828 258822
 1.00 478238 477236 477235 476234 475235 474237 475239 477239
      478238
 1.00 387799 387791 385785 380775 377769 374767 371768 366772
      363777 362782 359794 358805 355817 352828 348840 346850
      348856 346862 342871 343874 345873 350871 356870 360869
      369862 372859 374855 379843 380830 380824 381816 383807
      387799
 1.00 254820 253814 252810 250805 248800 244799 241803 239807
      239811 240817 241821 243826 246829 251829 252826 254820
      254820
 1.50 383800 382794 381791 379789 376787 372781 369782 367786
      366793 363800 360808 358817 358826 355834 354841 353848
      354854 355857 358859 360858 372849 374842 373830 374822
      376812 383800
 1.50 250820 251816 250812 249810 247807 245806 242807 241809
      240813 241817 242820 245822 246823 249822 250820
 2.00 377798 377796 375793 371793 370795 368797 367800 365804
      364807 363809 363814 365813 368811 369809 371808 373806
      376803 377801 377798
 2.00 248814 247814 247813 245811 243810 243811 243813 243815
      244817 244818 246818 248817 248816 248814

24HR QP VT 24/12Z
 0.01 537194 537186 535182 531173 527163 522154 519151 518146
      517137 514128 512122 512115 513106 515098 519096 523097
      528092 530087 532082 532076 531068 530061 529045 527036
      524023 521009 519006 515006 497010 495012 489012 486014
      485010 487007 488996 490989 490975 492970 493963 492954
      491946 490939 489931 486903 484896 484889 481877 478864
      479859 482854 488835 498796 503776 507761 508756 508748
      506728 505725 503723 501721 499720 499717 501712 503705
      502700 500695 496692 489690 485665 482664 479666 476671
      473669 467664 464664 462668 460673 460678 462683 466686
      469690 467694 462705 459714 457714 456709 454708 452712
      451716 456715 458717 457719 458729 460731 462735 462739
      461743 460757 460769 461776 460780 460786 459790 460794
      463797 463808 463814 463822 463831 460836 458844 459850
      460858 461862 460868 458881 455885 455890 456898 458906
      460913 460918 462930 465942 468953 469966 470975 470982
      472986 475998 478011 480017 479022 478024 473035 470033
      469026 466013 467997 467989 462988 458988 453991 450993
      448000 448006 446009 444009 441007 441003 443997 442995
      439997 434997 434003 432009 433012 437019 436027 431037
      428043 425047 422053 418055 410058 402055 398062 396064
      396067 397073 398078 402082 405088 403095 401100 399103
      388117 388127 387134 389143 389146 391147 395149 399150
      403149 407147 411143 410138 407133 405130 407126 411125
      416126 417129 417134 418140 420144 417149 418152 419156
      417161 415167 414175 413182 415184 420189 423189 424192
      422197 418200 414200 410202 409205 407208 403210 400213
      400214 404219 405226 397233 395240 392245 396254 401261
      402265 403271 409278 416287 436294 441294 446296 456299
      459298 464299 471297 476296 482291 486286 489283 492283
      494285 499288 505289 508287 511284 514282 517278 518272
      520266 520259 521251 523246 527236 530229 531225 532216
      534212
 0.01 534212 534209 534206 535204 535201 536199 536196 537194
 0.01 484196 484191 482188 477182 473174 469174 466177 462183
      464191 463201 462206 464209 469207 475204 482201 484196
 0.01 439195 439190 438187 436185 432186 429190 427196 425201
      426207 429210 432209 433205 434198 436196 439195
 0.01 443086 443084 442082 442081 441079 439076 437076 436076
      434077 433078 433080 432083 432085 432087 433090 435092
      436092 438091 438090 440090 441089 442088 443086
 0.01 399746 398732 396719 394706 393701 391698 390693 387690
      378689 376687 375684 373676 369676 366678 360681 357684
      353691 349698 346705 344715 342726 341731 339735 335743
      332748 328749 325748 323743 324739 321735 319733 316732
      312732 308735 301741 294746 287751 280757 276757 273756
      259761 250765 247767 245771 235786 234790 236794 235800
      234804 229810 230815 233820 237822 245826 250827 255827
      263828 275827 269832 265839 264842 264846 265849 269848
      272849 270851 269857 269862 274861 280856 287851 291848
      292851 289858 285863 281871 284873 281877 278886 278898
      278900 281901 284902 293905 295900 297897 301892 316880
      330871 334868 337870 339873 345875 352875 355873 360872
      368869 374867 378864 380861 381857 382850 383845 385822
      387811 389804 393794 396786 399775 398767 399763 398753
      399746
 0.01 293077 294071 293067 294056 293052 291050 285048 282046
      276045 273043 266037 263035 265031 266025 265021 257018
      252020 249022 243026 237033 233040 234051 235056 238059
      244065 250070 257075 264079 268081 274082 283082 288081
      291079 293077
 0.01 262998 261986 256978 255972 254969 254966 251963 246961
      244960 239963 237966 237973 237980 238985 240990 243994
      246998 249001 256006 260006 260002 262998
 0.25 507274 507266 508259 506240 506234 505231 501225 498218
      492212 484211 479210 465213 453216 440217 429222 427224
      427227 428230 426233 423234 416235 411236 406243 405246
      407249 412262 418259 424264 430267 435269 445271 451270
      456269 463269 467268 469265 471256 478256 482259 493270
      500276 506277 507274
 0.25 521065 519058 514054 510051 506047 502043 495042 490043
      486047 480058 476074 478080 481085 486088 491087 496085
      500080 503077 509076 514074 518070 521065
 0.25 510157 510149 506144 503144 501146 499154 498162 494168
      492176 493181 494184 497187 501184 505179 507172 509164
      509160 510157
 0.25 493238 492237 492235 491233 491232 490230 489229 488229
      487228 485227 484226 482226 481226 482228 482229 483232
      484234 486234 488235 489236 491237 492238 493238
 0.25 481713 481711 481708 480706 479704 477704 476705 474706
      474708 473709 473710 472713 472715 472716 472718 472721
      473722 474723 475723 476723 477722 478721 479719 479718
      480716 480714 481713
 0.25 469155 468146 466137 466127 465122 465117 465111 463107
      460100 457093 453092 451095 446100 442106 440109 439114
      442122 446128 448138 446144 443153 442161 446168 450174
      455175 458172 462168 466160 469155
 0.25 479962 480949 481937 480924 479912 477905 473905 471907
      470911 470916 472927 473937 473949 476957 479962
 0.25 387783 388777 387772 386761 383752 381745 379737 375728
      372720 370714 370709 367707 365709 362715 359722 355726
      351731 347738 343746 338751 323771 320776 317778 312782
      306786 296787 292786 290784 291782 295780 297774 296768
      291766 287766 280767 273771 267774 246789 241795 241803
      244809 250812 273822 286816 286812 283813 279814 276813
      274810 275807 281804 292797 295796 298797 305799 314800
      316805 314813 312817 313821 317826 313829 309835 308839
      306843 303846 302851 302856 304859 309860 313859 318855
      322853 326854 332856 335856 339855 346853 362853 367849
      372843 374836 375830 380813 385797 387783
 0.25 299817 300815 299814 297813 295814 294815 295817 296818
      297818 299817 299817
 0.25 274059 274056 270054 268054 265052 263051 260050 256050
      254052 253055 253059 255061 257062 260063 264063 268062
      270062 273061 274059
 0.50 493222 493220 492217 490216 489216 487217 485217 485219
      484220 485220 486222 488223 489222 491223 493222
 0.50 479241 479234 476231 474232 469233 467232 466229 468223
      468219 464217 459217 454220 450223 443221 439224 435230
      438244 439246 442248 449249 460250 471246 475245 479241
 0.50 495056 495054 495053 493053 491055 491056 490058 489058
      490058 491059 493059 493058 495056 495056
 0.50 452260 451258 450257 448256 447255 445255 443255 441255
      440255 439256 441258 442259 444260 446260 447261 449261
      451260 452260
 0.50 448231 447229 445229 443230 442231 440232 441233 443233
      444232 445231 447231 448231
 0.50 457115 458113 458111 458108 457106 456104 455103 455102
      453103 451105 451107 450109 449112 450114 450116 450117
      451118 453119 455118 456118 457116 457115
 0.50 429248 429243 428241 424239 423238 421238 417239 415240
      415243 416246 418248 421250 424250 427249 429248
 0.50 385781 383773 381766 379760 377757 372752 370751 366752
      362753 358753 352751 350749 346750 341754 337759 332765
      329771 326777 324784 322792 323795 325797 331800 329806
      325813 325823 321827 317831 313834 312838 313842 312845
      309848 309851 312850 313847 318843 325840 329839 331841
      334847 340850 347849 359847 366842 369836 378807 382794
      385781
 0.50 274799 274794 273789 268785 259786 252789 246792 245795
      245801 250805 254805 256808 262812 265813 267811 271806
      274799
 1.00 380784 379778 377774 370765 353776 346771 341773 338777
      335782 334786 336792 337799 337807 335812 336820 332823
      325829 322832 326831 332830 335832 336840 339844 344845
      349844 356843 359841 365832 370822 377801 380784
 1.00 268798 268797 266796 264798 264799 264800 265800 266802
      267802 267800 268798 268798
 1.00 266794 264794 264795 266795 266794
 1.50 375790 375783 372780 369777 365778 360783 355792 350798
      348799 347796 348791 348785 347780 343779 339780 336784
      336788 338793 339798 341803 343806 347809 348814 348818
      346821 341823 340828 338832 338838 339841 341841 345840
      358829 361825 364824 367820 369815 374796 375790
 2.00 371799 371793 371789 369786 366785 362787 357796 354805
      353815 352821 349824 346826 346830 349831 352828 357821
      364816 368809 371799
 2.00 344792 344790 344788 344785 343784 342784 340784 338785
      338786 338788 338789 340790 340792 341795 343796 344794
      344792 344792

24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 536204 538192 537183 538177 536174 534167 531159 529156
      526154 520150 515142 508137 505133 504129 506118 509110
      514094 518091 520091 523087 524084 528076 528071 530066
      530058 529053 529048 527039 525031 519012 518007 517008
      515004 515001 512988 511976 521939 526924 530908 532884
      532858 530841 529836 528828 526820 521813 517808 514806
      511806 509804 505804 499803 493802 487805 484811 484820
      483825 482829 479829 478833 476833 475830 470831 466836
      463845 463850 463856 462863 460866 454871 449876 447884
      444892 443901 443912 442918 440921 438928 438937 440938
      442941 440944 436949 432955 430956 428959 419971 414977
      410983 402996 401000 400007 399018 398027 398037 400052
      387060 382065 378071 374079 373082 375086 380101 385096
      389089 391087 395085 400086 402088 405091 406095 404103
      399108 395112 389115 384120 382123 382126 386128 390127
      398125 403126 406129 408131 409137 408147 405151 402153
      398159 399166 404172 406180 407184 409186 408193 405200
      403204 398203 392199 390197 385195 377194 385208 385213
      387215 389218 392218 395217 397218 398221 397224 395227
      390227 384228 386235 388250 393263 396266 400268 408272
      413277 414279 417277 423274 426272 429272 445268 447267
      452268 455267 459268 473272 482281 490284 494283 502282
      506283 507285 509283 510278 506271 505267 505262 508267
      510272 514275 515275 516273 518269 521257 521253 521246
      522237 525230 527228 528224 532216 536204
 0.01 472073 471071 471068 470068 469066 469065 467063 466061
      464060 463058 461060 462062 462065 462066 463067 463070
      464071 465072 467073 468073 469073 470075 472073
 0.01 325690 312708 304720 302727 299732 297737 294742 293749
      291752 287753 284752 282753 280757 280760 278776 277782
      273784 267788 264792 259799 256805 258809 262813 263821
      266824 269831 276831 281830 284828 289824 292822 296822
      298820 301821 307821 311824 315830 317836 321845 326847
      338845 340847 343847 348845 354842 358837 362833 365830
      370829 374824 375819 376814 377812 380807 385802 390799
      395794 402790 410782 416772 422759 424751 426742 427734
      427726 428719 427710 428693 429686 427675 425667 421663
      408666 405663 403663 400662 396663 388665 380668 371670
      366669 350673
 0.01 409945 409936 403935 398937 394940 391954 387968 380977
      378979 378983 382986 386990 389995 392996 394994 397988
      401975 404961 408947 409945
 0.25 514158 513151 508147 502143 498148 496153 492151 486152
      481150 475146 467139 460136 454139 449145 445147 438149
      434153 431159 428161 423147 419152 416159 421171 424183
      425188 427190 431191 434193 438206 434210 427209 422209
      418214 414221 409224 403228 398231 394235 392244 396249
      400253 405257 412260 419261 426261 437257 446254 459254
      466254 474256 480256 485253 487249 489244 490240 495223
      494213 489208 483206 478206 469210 461210 455209 453206
      453201 456193 465184 468180 472177 482170 487166 491166
      493169 496170 499170 501168 502163 509162 513160 514158
 0.25 518895 518884 517873 515862 511854 508849 505848 501849
      498850 496853 492860 489866 483869 477874 474880 469895
      468905 466915 466925 467935 467946 465954 462961 460969
      458980 458991 457001 458005 462007 467003 472999 477994
      484993 490989 494984 497978 501970 506955 508946 510938
      513928 515919 517907 518895
 0.25 460118 461107 461096 459089 454082 450078 448080 444081
      440084 440088 438092 434098 432102 430105 424107 423112
      419112 412115 408114 407119 409122 416122 422119 428115
      431115 436115 445118 449122 456127 459122 460118
 0.25 440178 441176 440175 439174 437175 435177 436179 436180
      437180 438179 440178 440178
 0.25 444041 444038 444036 443034 443033 442031 440030 439031
      438031 436032 436033 436035 436036 437038 438039 439040
      440040 441041 443042 444041
 0.25 408733 408722 407715 405709 402698 399691 396687 393686
      387687 383689 379692 377696 373702 370709 366716 358723
      352726 346730 340735 336745 330750 326753 320755 316757
      311763 306769 303776 301784 304793 309800 320809 325816
      329816 332815 364806 370803 377798 384792 388785 402755
      406744 408733
 0.50 511895 511887 510880 508874 504872 497878 492880 486881
      483883 480887 474897 474905 476912 475919 474927 472956
      474960 475964 475969 471972 467976 466982 467990 471987
      474982 476979 480977 485974 489971 494962 499952 503940
      506926 511898 511895
 0.50 489221 488215 483211 477211 472213 462213 449214 428218
      424221 426229 426232 423233 417231 411230 406232 401235
      397240 398244 401249 408253 413255 418256 424256 435253
      455247 459245 465244 470242 475241 477220 483223 487223
      489221
 0.50 446106 447104 446102 444102 442102 441103 440105 440108
      440109 441110 442111 443111 444110 445109 445108 446106
 0.50 397731 398726 396722 394720 390721 379729 368735 363735
      358739 348747 338753 327760 321763 317768 310777 308783
      310790 313795 318799 327805 334805 342804 348800 352795
      357793 361793 363794 366796 369796 375792 382783 385777
      386770 387763 389755 394743 397731
 1.00 465219 464218 463218 461218 461220 462221 463221 464219
      465219
 1.00 450237 449237 448236 447236 447238 449237 450237
 1.00 446240 447238 446237 444237 443236 441236 439236 438236
      437236 436237 435238 433239 435241 437240 438241 440240
      442241 444241 445241 446240
 1.00 449224 450222 448220 447220 445220 443220 441221 440222
      439222 438224 437226 438228 438229 439229 440229 442228
      443228 444227 446226 448225 449224
 1.00 429245 430240 425238 420236 414234 411235 407239 408244
      409247 412248 417250 422250 425249 429246 429245
 1.00 377764 377760 375756 367755 353756 337759 325765 317775
      314782 317790 322793 330794 336794 342791 348787 355786
      360785 365782 368775 373770 377764
 1.50 422243 423241 423240 421239 419240 419242 420243 422244
      422243
 1.50 370763 368761 366760 361759 357761 351762 346761 339762
      329767 325769 320774 318777 318782 320786 324789 330789
      337788 349785 359782 363778 364773 366768 370763
 2.00 365764 363762 359763 356766 352766 343764 334768 326772
      322774 319778 321783 325786 329786 335786 342783 347783
      351782 356781 359778 362767 365764
 3.00 356777 355772 351770 347769 342770 339773 335775 330776
      326778 327781 332782 338781 343780 347781 352780 355777
      356777
 4.00 352775 351773 349772 348772 346772 344773 342774 342775
      342777 343777 345778 346778 347779 348779 350778 351778
      352776 352775

$$





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