Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 240642
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
241 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 24/1200 UTC THRU MAR 25/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY/MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...

AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT H5 S/WV ORIGINATING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE H5 TROF NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE INCREASING PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD
FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS CONCERNING THIS S/WV..ESPECIALLY
TOWWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD..WITH THE GFS ON THE
SOMEWHAT FASTER SIDE AND THE 12Z ECMWF ON THE SLOWER SIDE.  MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS..AND CHOSE TO GO WITH THIS "COMPROMISE" SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME.  ORGANIZING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET/LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SUPPORT THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT..WITH WATER EQUIVALENTS OF
0.50-1.00+ INCH LIKELY THRU MUCH OF THE MIDWEST/SOUTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES.  MODEL QPFS WERE IN GENERALLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THESE
AMOUNTS..TIMING DIFFERENCES ASIDE..SO STAYED CLOSE TO THIS IDEA.
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE
SNOW..PLEASE SEE THE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.


...NORTHERN PLAINS...

THE MORE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE H5 TROF INITIALLY MOVING THRU THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL LIFT THRU THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS PERIOD..ALSO IN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT FASHION AND ALSO
ACCOMPANIED BY WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.  IT WILL ALSO
HAVE A SEPARATE NARROW SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WITH IT..BUT WITH
LESS MOISTURE AS THE BETTER MOISTURE IS TIED UP WITH THE S/WV
MOVING THRU THE MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THUS..ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE H5 S/WV AND
SURFACE LOW..PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST..WITH MOSTLY 0.25-0.50 INCH WATER EQUIVALENTS EXPECTED.
THESE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE IN LINE WITH PRETTY AGREEABLE
MODEL QPFS.  SOME MODEST SNOWS ARE LIKELY FROM EXTREME EASTERN MT
THRU THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF ND..AGAIN PLEASE SEE THE QPFHSD FOR
SNOWFALL DETAILS.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST THRU THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...

PRETTY IMPRESSIVE H5 S/WV NOW GETTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD..AND IS HANDLED SIMILARLY BY THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS.
RESPECTABLE HEIGHT FALLS/MID LEVEL FORCING ACCOMPANYING THIS
SYSTEM THRU MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION..WITH HEAVY SNOWS THRU THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF ID AND WESTERN WY ESPECIALLY.  00Z MODEL QPFS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AMOUNTS..AND STAYED CLOSE TO THEIR SOLUTIONS.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 496329 475326 471325 467323 462319 459314 456310 455306
      453299 453293 453284 451277 448266 447259 448251 445239
      448233 445232 443233 436240 436245 433250 424251 414253
      409252 401250 395248 391246 387242 387235 399219 396210
      397208 400208 406208 410204 415201 418197 419187 418181
      417178 414177 416165 413156 415149 415144 414141 416137
      417130 415124 411122 409121 407124 405126 402126 401113
      406101 408098 411103 415106 419104 426099 425093 422088
      423080 423076 422073 417072 413076 407077 404082 398082
      393083 390083 388085 385085 375082 376075 380071 384069
      387065 394059 401052 402048 402043 400035 400029 400025
      402023 405025 407029 409035 412040 417043 422043 432049
      431042 429036 428031 428025 431020 434019 435021 438026
      440033 442046 446058 452067 456075 461086 470092 473093
      475095 477102 478104 478108 477114 477121 481125 490130
      494134 497138 505143 509149 510154 512160 511169 510173
      509176 505179 496184 487187 485188 483191 481197 484210
      488213 490216 494217 498219 501223 505234 507240 508248
      512263 513268 515271 518277
 0.01 549976 542917 537909 533907 529909 521916 515923 507931
      495931 492928 489923 486919 483914 479901 475889 468863
      463851 459842 452833 449829 446824 441817 437815 433811
      430809 426805 416799 412797 409794 405791 405787 399787
      396788 392787 386780 376762 372757 370756 367757 366762
      367771 368777 370780 370783 374787 377792 379794 381799
      381805 384811 387815 389822 384833 374848 367858 364867
      359877 355888 353892 351898 347911 339930 339937 340943
      338948 337954 340957 341959 345958 349956 354955 359956
      366956 371955 378956 385959 389963 390970 393982 396987
      399991 405992 411992 421991 432989 441993 443996 446003
      449017 449023 451029 455040 462049 469056 485066 489069
      495070 509072 517068 521065 523059 525052 529050 532046
      534040 537025 537019 535013 535009 537007 540003 545993
      549976
 0.01 464211 465205 463201 457198 450197 441196 433193 431192
      429197 428203 429207 436212 444213 451213 458212 464211
 0.01 436131 436129 435127 435126 434124 432124 431125 432128
      432130 433132 435133 436131
 0.01 375808 374805 371805 367809 361811 355814 352817 349822
      345827 342833 332839 330844 332848 336848 338850 345849
      349846 352842 353835 357830 360825 365820 372813 375808
 0.01 377891 375889 372889 369894 367898 365901 362905 361910
      361912 363912 366909 369905 371901 372898 375893 377891
 0.01 351751 351745 348744 342749 337754 333761 325774 323777
      319776 317773 313772 300780 295785 290786 285786 268786
      260786 253789 243799 239805 235812 234815 234820 237822
      240821 243813 247808 252802 254800 257799 263801 265807
      267809 275810 284809 293809 300812 310810 313809 317807
      324795 327786 331780 340767 347759 351751
 0.01 302880 301875 300872 295866 292866 290867 286873 288877
      286880 286885 287895 291902 293904 295903 301899 299891
      300882 302880
 0.25 502299 504288 504278 502271 499264 492252 487249 481248
      473246 467247 464246 462249 463253 463259 467272 468281
      468291 471297 474299 477299 482299 487301 493303 499302
      502299
 0.25 530986 530982 530978 527973 523970 522968 521965 521961
      520957 517953 512953 507957 501963 497967 495972 487979
      485985 485992 483999 480004 477017 474029 473033 472035
      469035 469037 472041 477044 485049 495053 498054 503053
      510045 512040 514038 514035 519023 522011 526999 530986
 0.25 490142 491140 491137 490137 489136 487135 486134 484134
      482135 481135 481138 482138 484139 485140 487141 488142
      490142 490142
 0.25 474166 474161 472156 466151 461149 455149 452150 447149
      442148 438149 434152 437158 439161 443164 447166 448170
      449175 452179 456178 461180 466180 469178 471175 474169
      474166
 0.25 462223 463221 462219 461218 459218 457219 458222 458223
      460223 462223 462223
 0.25 443222 441220 440220 438219 436219 434220 433220 431221
      429221 429222 428223 429224 430225 432226 434226 435225
      437225 439225 441224 443223 443222
 0.25 456113 457106 456100 455096 452093 448092 444094 440094
      436096 429091 428093 429096 431100 430104 425104 422107
      422114 429114 438114 441115 446118 449121 453118 456113
 0.25 445186 444184 443184 442186 442187 444188 445186
 0.25 451078 450075 448073 446071 445070 444070 443069 442070
      442072 443074 444074 444075 446076 447077 448078 449079
      451079 451078
 0.25 455889 455883 453879 450872 447865 442858 432850 427845
      422839 420837 416835 409839 399848 394854 391861 389881
      388890 385899 379913 377922 379927 379930 379937 382941
      385943 391947 395952 397962 400969 404975 410977 418977
      424974 428968 433963 437956 438945 440937 445931 447928
      448922 446911 447906 451900 455889
 0.25 426242 425237 422234 418232 415229 413227 410228 408232
      406234 402236 400238 400242 404244 409245 414246 418246
      422245 426243 426242
 0.25 312798 312794 310793 308792 304792 301793 299794 295796
      294799 296801 298802 300804 304805 307805 310803 311801
      312798
 0.50 495278 496272 493267 491263 487261 482260 479261 477266
      478271 479277 480282 483285 488287 492285 494280 495278
 0.50 508996 509993 508993 507992 505991 504990 503990 502991
      500991 500993 500994 501995 502996 503996 505996 507996
      508996 508996
 0.50 467164 467162 467160 467158 466157 465156 463155 462154
      460154 459155 458156 457157 457160 458161 459163 461165
      461166 462167 464168 465167 466167 467164
 0.50 453103 453100 453099 452098 452097 450097 450100 451102
      452102 453103 453103
 0.50 451112 451110 451109 449108 447107 446106 444105 442104
      441104 439105 439107 438107 439108 440109 441110 442111
      443112 445113 446114 447114 448114 450114 451112
 0.50 420242 419241 417240 415241 417242 418242 420242
 0.50 441885 441880 440875 437870 434865 428862 422861 419860
      417857 418844 418841 416843 414850 409864 408871 405876
      400873 397878 395886 394893 392908 391924 391930 394936
      396942 399948 405961 408966 413969 420968 422961 423958
      425956 428955 430952 430944 427938 425935 425930 427923
      429916 430912 430907 430902 431899 436896 438889 441885
 0.50 415241 414238 413238 412239 411240 412240 413241 415241
 0.50 430109 430107 429106 428106 427106 426106 425106 424108
      424109 426110 428110 430109 430109
 1.00 412915 412908 410904 407903 405905 403908 401913 399917
      400924 401929 402933 403936 405938 406931 407926 410922
      411917 412915

$$





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