Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 172044
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
443 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 18/0000 UTC THRU OCT 21/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND...

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION THIS
PERIOD..AS A COUPLED OF WELL DEFINED H5 S/WVS SWING EITHER THRU
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND OR DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
FROM SOUTHCENTRAL CANADA.  THE LEAD H5 S/WV IS FAIRLY STRONG AND
WELL DEFINED OVER THE WESTERN LAKES AT THIS TIME..AND IS FORECAST
SIMILARLY BY ALL THE MODELS TO REACH INTO THE FAR EASTERN LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIFT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY.  ON
ITS HEELS..THE UPSTREAM H5 S/WV NOW DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
THRU MANITOBA PROVINCE WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN LAKES LATER IN
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM THESE S/WVS..AND IN
PARTICULAR WITH THE 1ST SYSTEM..ALONG WITH POST FRONTAL CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT..SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY RAIN) FROM THE NORTHERN
INTO THE EASTERN LAKES AND UP THRU WESTERN NY STATE AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  ANY ORGANIZED GREATER THAN 0.25 INCH RAINS MOST
LIKELY LESS OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO IN BETTER LAKE
ENHANCEMENT..AND ALSO FROM NORTHERN NY STATE THRU EXTREME NORTHERN
VT/NH AND INTO WESTERN ME..ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRACK OF THE 1ST
STRONG H5 S/WV.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CA COAST...

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
WEAKENING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WEST COAST H5 TROF INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN DURING THE PERIOD..WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF SPLITTING AND DROPPING MORE SOUTHWARD
THRU CA.  THE WEAKENING OF THE H5 TROF AND DISSIPATION OF ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT..ALONG WITH A RELATIVE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW..SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL
EVENT..WITH ANY LOCALLY MODERATE AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THE
NORTHERN OR COASTAL RANGES UP INTO THE WA COASTAL RANGES AND
CASCADES..WHERE THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS BETTER/MORE
FAVORABLE.  NAM AND UKMET HIRES QPFS LIKELY A BIT TOO HEAVY IN
CA..SO STAYED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF HIRES AND GFS SOLUTION OVERALL.


THE ONLY OTHER VERY LIGHT RAINS THIS PERIOD WILL BE THRU PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES..ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
STARVED SOUTHERN BRANCH H5 TROF..AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL TX
COAST WHERE A WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEGINS
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY.


DAYS 2-3...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN HANDLING A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING INLAND ON DAYS 2/3. QPF IS SHOWING MINIMAL TRENDS FROM
RUN TO RUN...ALLOWING US TO KEEP GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE PRIMARY THRUST OF THE BEST DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS INTO SW CANADA ON DAY 2...WITH ONLY 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS
GETTING INTO THE OLYMPIC IN NW WASHINGTON BY 20/00Z. ON DAY 3 FLOW
IS JUST WEST OF DUE SOUTHERLY...EXCEPT WITH SOME VEERING ALOFT
OVER TIME. THIS SHOULD TEND TO KEEP THE TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING
SOMEWHAT TAME...BUT ANOTHER FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES OR/CA...WITH DOWNSTREAM ENHANCEMENT OF AN
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET OVER OR/WA...SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION. OUR FAVORED MODEL SOURCES WERE
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND OUR IN-HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE.
THE ENSEMBLE LOOKED REMARKABLY SIMILAR TO GEFS RE-FORECAST ANALOG
DATA AS WELL...SUGGESTING 24-HOUR DAY 3 TOTALS GENERALLY 0.50 TO
1.0 INCH ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES AND THE NORTHERN CASCADES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE OLYMPICS.


SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTH TX
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
DEEPENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY INTO
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. STRONGER FORCING WILL OCCUR
AROUND A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW ACCOMPANIED BY A DIFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO. THE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND FORCING MAY NOT OVERLAP UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY 3 PERIOD AS THEY BEGIN TO SYNC UP OVER SOUTHWEST
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN MEXICO. THUS...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE ON THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SIDE. THE MODELS ARE ALSO
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FROM RUN TO RUN GIVEN THE LACK OF CONSISTENT
DEEP LAYER FORCING WITHIN THE ONSHORE FLOW REGIME AND THE MARGINAL
MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. WPC WORKED
TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY BY NUDGING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD THE
12Z GFS AND ECMWF.


GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST U.S.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TO BEGIN DAY 2...SATURDAY EVENING...A DISTINCT DISTURBANCE ALOFT
WILL BE SWEEPING TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THERE WILL BE BRIEF
WINDOW...MAINLY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...FOR RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EITHER TIED TO INSTABILITY DOWNWIND OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES OR WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO NEW ENGLAND. WE CONSULTED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION NAM AND THE RE-FORECAST DATA TO PICK OUT A FEW TERRAIN
FEATURES THAT ARE MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE SOMETHING ON THE ORDER OF
0.10" AMOUNTS...BUT OTHERWISE MADE LITTLE CHANGE.


UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL MOST
LIKELY BEHAVE LIKE AN EARLY-SEASON CLIPPER. THE GFS WOULD DIG THIS
MORE SUBSTANTIALLY...MAKING IT A LONGER WAVELENGTH FEATURE...BUT
THE GFS SOLUTION WAS NOT PREFERRED. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO
RESOLVE THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED GIVEN A RELATIVE
LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. A MODIFIED RETURN OF MOISTURE SHOULD
YIELD SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY AT THE NOSE OF A PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET
MONDAY MORNING...AND DOWNSTREAM WHERE HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR
TOWARD THE MID MS AND THE OH VALLEYS. WPC NUDGED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF...BUT ALSO THE 06Z GEFS
PROBABILISTIC QPF OUTPUT WHICH HELPED CAPTURE SOME OF THE LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AREAS IN THE MS/OH VALLEYS.

TERRY/BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 19/00Z
 0.01 535215 537209 537202 535194 527177 522171 518166 514164
      510165 504163 501164 497162 492160 490162 488160 485158
      482155 477154 475156 476161 478163 479169 478175 480178
      482182 484184 486194 481200 468206 465207 462205 459205
      457208 454211 451212 444213 431217 424219 422221 423225
      426227 427232 420234 416232 414228 415222 415219 413218
      410218 409222 407225 404227 394225 386225 378226 371228
      367228 364229 362232 361238 362245 366251 368253 372257
      376258 379258 396258 411257 424256 439254 453253 469254
      473255 476258 479260 481264 486270 489274 491278 489291
      492298 494302 498304 501304 504301 509296 513289 517281
      520269 520258 521251 520248 517239 514229 514225 512222
      506216 504213 503207 506201 509199 514206 518212 520216
      523219 526222 529224 533220 535215
 0.01 521702 519689 516680 515672 511660 505655 498656 479662
      470665 464669 459671 456674 449680 443687 438694 431709
      428717 428721 428727 429733 427739 423747 418766 415775
      409780 395788 389792 384795 382798 378807 373812 366818
      364820 363825 364828 367829 375827 380825 384828 390834
      394841 400846 409845 414840 414834 416833 418845 416849
      413851 411849 402850 401854 401860 406864 413869 416871
      421871 428874 431874 434871 435868 440867 449868 452870
      455874 459883 461893 463903 465905 467902 470894 475885
      478876 478868 479862 477852 474843 469836 465831 462821
      458813 457805 460800 462796 466792 469790 473788 485781
      497770 502764 505761 508756 512749 515744 515741 518735
      519730 520724 520718 521702
 0.01 490232 488229 487228 485226 485225 484224 482224 481224
      479226 479228 480229 481231 481233 483233 484234 486233
      488233 490232
 0.01 476225 476224 474224 473224 474225 475225 476225
 0.01 383131 384129 384128 382126 380126 378128 376130 378132
      378133 380133 382131 383131 383131
 0.01 387077 388063 386061 383062 380062 381051 374045 366040
      363037 363029 361027 358027 356024 351024 345022 340015
      336023 328027 324037 322039 320045 320051 319054 321057
      329060 333059 339059 347064 353064 357067 362067 368069
      372078 373084 376084 385079 387077
 0.01 365121 363119 363118 361118 360118 358118 356120 355122
      356122 357123 359123 361123 363123 365121 365121
 0.01 292985 292981 290978 288975 287970 287966 285963 276963
      268964 259965 255965 252962 248957 243952 237953 232957
      231965 231975 234981 239986 243987 248987 252986 256988
      258990 262991 275985 278983 282985 288987 292985
 0.25 529210 531204 531197 528190 524184 518178 514173 510171
      507172 508180 512187 516193 520202 524208 527210 529210
 0.25 517267 517260 515253 512239 509233 506227 500215 497211
      491207 485207 479207 470211 460213 455216 452220 454225
      456228 454231 443235 439238 438243 443245 450245 455244
      459242 464239 466238 468240 474244 479246 492269 498280
      502285 507287 510285 513279 517267
 0.25 493240 493232 490227 484223 478221 472221 468225 468230
      469231 475230 478231 479234 482241 487239 493240
 0.25 481698 480692 478687 476684 472685 462687 455691 450698
      448702 448707 447729 448735 446739 438743 433750 431759
      433762 437763 441763 446761 448759 453758 456756 459752
      460748 461742 463733 466725 471718 475710 479702 481698
 0.25 428788 427785 424786 422787 421790 419794 418797 418799
      417804 417807 417809 419808 421806 422803 424801 425798
      427795 428791 428788
 0.25 248976 248975 247974 246973 244972 243970 242970 241969
      239969 238969 238971 238973 239975 241977 242978 244978
      245978 246977 248976 248976
 0.50 512266 514262 514257 512250 508238 497216 493213 487211
      481210 477212 473215 467216 463216 460218 460222 463223
      468220 473219 478219 484220 490223 493227 495233 497239
      501244 503249 505257 502259 498254 491245 489243 486243
      486250 488257 490262 496272 499277 505280 507278 509272
      512266
 0.50 477238 478235 477235 476234 475235 475237 475238 477239
      477238
 1.00 497265 497264 497263 496261 495259 494258 494256 493255
      492253 490252 490253 491255 491256 492258 493259 494262
      495263 496265 497265 497265

24HR QP VT 20/00Z
 0.01 521272 523263 522251 515235 511227 505221 502218 497217
      491221 488223 485224 480223 477224 470227 465231 459235
      452238 438243 425248 419253 415260 414266 415271 412274
      412279 415283 418285 421285 425286 429285 431286 431288
      424292 418295 417300 417304 419308 423311 431315 449321
      452321 457323 466325 468325 472327 482330 489330 495325
      503308 509296 516284
 0.01 529202 529199 530197 529195 529194 528192 527191 527189
      526187 525186 524186 522185 521186 520187 519188 519191
      519194 520196 521198 522200 524201 525202 527203 528203
      529202
 0.01 526708 522685 515663 511654 506649 499646 493645 485645
      478649 471654 462656 456655 452656 448659 444666 442669
      442672 442677 439680 436682 431684 425688 423692 422697
      421701 422708 424710 429710 436708 443701 447693 454693
      457696 455701 453705 448706 442711 436717 432722 431727
      432730 434730 437731 438734 435738 430744 421747 417753
      415762 415767 414771 409777 401782 387791 380796 376802
      369806 364811 359816 355826 368824 367827 369830 374824
      376820 381818 390818 399819 405822 409822 412820 414817
      418814 419798 426782 465728 480719 489717 493716 496717
      504718 511721 513723 517723 520724 525722 526708
 0.01 523918 523907 520898 514884 504875 494868 491866 488866
      482862 470857 463854 457854 449855 443858 440863 437871
      440887 444894 448899 452905 457909 465921 472935 477939
      481944 492952 498954 503959 507965 512968 515970 518970
      520965 519961 519955 518951 518948 518944 520939 520930
      522922 523918
 0.01 392080 392074 390070 386070 384066 382062 377060 375051
      372047 368045 363044 359046 356049 355056 356060 356063
      353064 348057 340060 326069 316071 310069 308066 301061
      294054 291052 286051 283053 280057 276058 275063 278070
      282072 288074 297077 303080 312086 314091 316095 320097
      324099 327100 330100 334102 339104 341107 350121 352117
      351114 348110 348103 351099 357099 360101 364100 368090
      366087 363085 361080 363076 371074 374083 377087 380091
      387085 392080
 0.01 231991 233996 236000 243008 261019 279029 291028 298028
      303026 310026 312023 309015 301008 291002 288999 284995
      279985 277973 276970 272967 263961 254958 246950 242946
      238944 235943 233945 231947 231951
 0.25 518268 519258 517249 515243 512236 507230 502225 497223
      493227 489234 484238 479238 473240 465250 454255 449258
      444262 439265 437270 441273 445273 451273 463272 469277
      470280 470284 467288 461292 457297 456301 457304 462308
      470311 476311 482311 493307 498303 502298 510286 515278
      518268
 0.25 513675 510668 506665 501665 495668 490671 486674 482677
      483680 488680 493681 498682 503684 509683 513678 513675
 0.25 336086 335085 335084 334083 333084 333086 335087 336086
 0.25 287012 287010 286008 285007 284006 283005 282005 280005
      279005 279007 279009 280010 281012 282012 283014 284014
      285014 286014 287012 287012
 0.25 265992 266989 264986 262982 255975 253970 250966 245959
      241955 238954 236955 233965 232972 232979 233986 235991
      237995 241998 247999 253998 262995 265992
 0.50 516270 518263 518258 515248 511240 506233 503231 499229
      497231 494236 483244 478251 477257 476263 476268 480272
      482274 484279 475296 472298 471303 479305 486305 492302
      498297 503291 509285 513277 516270
 0.50 246994 248990 246986 245980 246972 244966 241960 239958
      237961 236967 234973 234981 236987 238992 244994 246994
 1.00 515267 516261 515256 511246 509242 506239 502239 500243
      496246 493246 488247 486251 489261 493269 497278 499282
      503283 507282 510278 514269 515267
 1.50 514264 513255 509247 507245 505246 502255 494251 492250
      489252 490257 492261 496267 500274 503277 507278 510270
      514264
 2.00 513263 513261 513260 512258 511257 510254 509253 508253
      508256 508257 509259 509261 510262 510263 512264 513263
 2.00 503270 503268 503267 502265 502264 501262 499261 498259
      496258 495257 493259 494261 494262 495263 496265 497266
      498268 499269 499270 501271 503271 503270

24HR QP VT 21/00Z
 0.01 536204 537199 536195 533189 527179 519167 514167 509168
      502167 496168 490167 489172 491181 487187 479195 470204
      460206 454207 448207 436210 426215 418223 415223 414220
      414216 411215 404211 398212 394215 397220 402223 402226
      399226 393226 385225 379226 377233 379238 384244 384250
      385257 388262 396265 406265 417263 428263 451260 464261
      471263 475265 490273 495276 500276 506274 510270 514267
      517262 519258 520252 520246 520242 518235 515228 513220
      511214 507209 506206 506202 510198 514198 517200 521206
      521209 524213 525216 528217 532215 536204
 0.01 502901 501888 499882 494868 487853 482847 478844 473840
      470838 468834 466827 463822 455808 451803 449800 448795
      447789 446785 444783 441781 435782 431785 429789 427790
      425789 419790 417792 416795 414793 409789 401790 397794
      393798 392805 389813 388818 386816 381812 377812 373819
      371827 369833 368840 368845 370849 372852 371857 368871
      367882 367888 370904 372914 373925 373932 378927 378900
      378891 381891 383895 384898 384903 385913 387920 391920
      393918 396913 399907 404893 408885 409877 414871 416868
      420867 424869 426871 429875 440885 453893 465906 478913
      482914 485915 489917 494916 497914 502901
 0.01 461180 461178 459177 456179 454181 452183 451185 451188
      452193 454194 454191 456187 457184 459182 461180
 0.01 420773 419770 417769 414769 412771 410772 408775 407778
      406780 406783 408785 410784 412781 415780 416777 418776
      420773
 0.01 230989 235998 240004 244006 249007 252009 257009 263011
      267015 269018 269024 270028 274030 279032 279035 279038
      272044 267052 266056 267060 269063 274063 281064 286066
      293072 296074 302075 307077 308081 312092 314096 318098
      325095 330094 334097 340106 343110 346112 349101 353095
      361101 365099 366094 364074 365070 369071 372075 374080
      378084 380085 383083 386078 390075 394078 397074 398071
      396066 394064 393057 387054 381053 377050 369045 364045
      360043 355042 353046 354052 352059 351064 353067 353069
      351070 348072 341071 340066 343063 345059 345057 342055
      341050 345047 351040 352034 350031 344030 341032 338031
      338028 338021 342013 339006 334006 332008 329008 323007
      320007 320009 315020 311022 307021 301019 299016 297007
      294004 291003 280003 272999 266994 262991 261988 263986
      272986 281983 284980 285976 287973 287968 288964 290963
      294964 296960 294955 296950 296943 294939 292937 288939
      285943 281951 279960 275966 272970 267971 262970 258969
      255961 247952 247951 242949 239948 234948 232951 231953
      230957
 0.01 384952 384936 380934 377938 371940 366944 359953 352962
      350967 350974 352976 355976 358977 360980 364985 368988
      371988 373987 376981 378975 380968 382961 383954 384952
 0.01 307818 306814 304811 300806 295801 290795 286790 281791
      279794 277796 276801 277806 278809 282817 287821 292824
      297824 301823 307819 307818
 0.25 529207 530205 530202 530199 529198 528196 527195 526195
      525195 524197 524198 523200 523203 525205 526206 528208
      529207
 0.25 515253 516243 515235 512228 508219 505213 499209 485208
      474212 467215 461217 437223 431226 430231 427232 420231
      414228 404233 397237 395240 397242 401248 406251 414254
      422254 429254 435253 447250 460250 469252 474255 485264
      489267 493269 498269 500268 504263 509263 513259 515253
 0.25 447858 446853 444848 442843 439840 437837 437832 440822
      441818 440810 437810 433812 427818 425824 427830 430833
      431840 433844 437847 441855 443859 446860 447858
 0.25 325059 325054 322048 320044 317040 313037 308036 297037
      292035 289033 286034 285039 287044 287054 289058 293062
      296065 299066 301065 305066 310068 315070 319071 320069
      325059
 0.25 293018 292014 289012 285012 282015 276015 276018 279022
      282024 286026 288030 290025 291020 293018
 0.25 289810 288808 287806 286804 286802 285800 285798 284798
      283797 282798 282800 282802 283804 283806 284807 284808
      286810 288810 289810
 0.25 244978 244974 243969 240966 238961 235961 234967 233972
      233977 233982 235987 237991 240988 242986 242983 244979
      244978
 0.50 514253 514242 513234 506218 500213 494212 487213 483213
      480216 479220 481223 486227 486231 485233 483232 479225
      476222 474222 468224 464225 461223 459224 458227 452230
      445230 439233 434239 430239 427237 421234 414231 410232
      408234 406238 406241 410247 424251 431251 435246 448244
      463243 469246 476250 482255 487260 492265 497266 500264
      503259 508259 512258 514253
 0.50 306057 305055 304053 303052 301052 300052 300053 298054
      296056 296058 297061 299063 301061 303060 304059 305058
      306057
 0.50 235979 235977 235979 235980 235979
 1.00 510254 512246 512239 510233 507227 502217 498216 493217
      491220 490227 491233 491238 489239 485241 482245 484250
      487254 490258 494262 497260 499253 510254 510254
 1.00 480244 481242 481239 480238 480236 479235 478233 476232
      475232 474232 473232 471233 471236 471238 471241 473243
      474244 476245 478245 479244 480244
 1.00 425241 424241 422240 421240 422243 424243 425241
      418240 417239 416239 417240 418240
 1.50 510249 511244 511240 508233 505228 503222 502220 498218
      494220 493225 493230 494236 498242 501247 506251 508251
      510249
 1.50 497257 496255 495252 494248 492245 490243 487244 486246
      486249 488252 490255 491257 494259 497257
 1.50 477240 477238 477237 476235 474236 473237 474238 474239
      475241 477241 477240
 2.00 508246 509240 507234 505231 502225 501222 497221 494224
      494228 495233 497239 500242 503246 506248 508246
 2.00 494254 494252 492251 492250 491249 490250 490252 491253
      492254 493256 494254
 3.00 502238 502236 501233 500230 499227 499226 497226 497229
      497231 498234 499237 501239 502238

$$





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