Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 011847
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
146 PM EST SUN MAR 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 02/0000 UTC THRU MAR 03/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA---SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY
1--WITH INCREASED EAST NORTHEAST MOVEMENT DURING THE SECOND HALF
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES---2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---WILL CONTINUE
TO BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST---SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
REGION.  STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THIS ANOMALOUS PW AXIS
WILL SUPPORT A BROAD REGION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
TOTALS FROM FAR EASTERN CALIFORNIA---THROUGH LARGE PORTIONS OF
AZ---SOUTHEAST NV--CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN UT INTO WESTERN CO.
HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY IN THE MOGOLLON RIM AREA OF AZ---INTO THE
SOUTHERN WASATCH OF UT AND THROUGH THE COLORADO ROCKIES.  HEAVY
SNOWS LIKELY IN THESE AREAS.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER
WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD WILL SUPPORT A SLOW
MOVING AREA OF PRECIPITATION AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN AZ AND
FAR EASTERN CALIFORNIA---SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RUNOFF
ISSUES.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS THAT DIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS MONDAY AND HELPS TO KICK
EAST NORTHEASTWARD THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION IMPACT FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DAY 1.  THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY NORTHERLY ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS AND
PW VALUES ARE MODEST.  SUBSEQUENLTY---THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
LIGHT PRECIP TOTALS ALONG THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COASTS LOOKS
REASONABLE

NORTHERN ROCKIES---NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS

ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN CANADA
MONDAY WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS LATE DAY 1.  POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SNOWS LATE DAY 1 OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM FAR NORTHERN
ID INTO NORTHWEST MT.

COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT
WILL BE PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD EARLY DAY 1 FROM
THE COASTAL NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT
AMOUNTS---KEEPING THEM IN THE .10-.25"+ AREAL AVERAGE FROM THE
COASTAL NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ACCUMULATING SNOWS POSSIBLE EARLY DAY 1 OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

EASTERN GREAT LAKES---CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST

IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY
AND DEEPENING TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES--CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS---GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE UPSLOPE AREA
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

EASTERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY- MID TN VALLEY REGION

AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION.  MOIST SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW INTO AND OVER THIS FRONT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS DAY 1 FROM EASTERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY-MID TN VALLEY REGION.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE IN HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN FOR DETAILS---WITH AREAL AVERAGE
.25-.50" AMOUNTS DEPICTED.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 447628 461644 468651 473659 479682 480696 478709 474718
      472726 463743 461748 460752 459763 458774 456788 454796
      453800 448810 445812 438813 434813 431809 427805 425804
      423804 418806 417812 415821 413828 411832 405839 402843
      399844 390845 385846 382849 376857 374861 373866 370876
      368880 369887 366914 361938 360943 359947 357947 354952
      352957 351961 347964 344975 344982 345988 348999 350010
      354017 357021 360023 366027 368030 373032 376033 379028
      386024 391022 395025 400035 406042 411047 417045 418047
      422050 423051 423055 423058 425062 423070 422075 423081
      423085 426089 431094 433097 432105 431113 428117 423126
      417130 413134 412138 412141 418149 420154 421159 415165
      405166 401167 397171 389169 386172 383174 376176 373177
      372181 376189 381193 391197 395200 398205 400209 403213
      403217 398216 387211 379204 363192 358192 355194 354196
      353200 353207 363212 366215 366219 364221 361219 356217
      352213 349211 344209 341208 339205 336201 333197 328190
      323184 315178 312174 308173 299176 291181 287182 282183
      278180 276177 275173 276169 281157 284155 285149 281147
      280144 284137 294129 295127 293126 287126 278129 275132
      272136 266140 262140 260141 254140 241138 237137 233134
      232129 233125 240120 248115 260104 284086 290083 300082
      306082 309084 314086 317088 321087 323083 325077 329074
      335074 341081 347083 352080 356070 355063 354057 350048
      345042 340037 338035 335032 332029 328025 322020 318022
      315020 309019 304017 296014 287010 271999 267997 264993
      259986 257982 257977 257972 260968 271953 288929 290924
      292920 291916 288904 288902 290899 292895 296893 304888
      308880
 0.01 308880 310873 313865 315858 316853 322839 325825 328818
      328814 329810 330807 329803 324806 310803 303802 301800
      304791 307786 315778 325768 329764 329755 329746 332740
      337729 343716 350705 362681 375657 386647
 0.01 543187 529155 526147 522141 516136 513129 512123 514119
      517115 518111 518098 518087 516082 514082 511081 508083
      503088 499092 493099 491102 488100 483095 479094 476091
      471088 467087 467093 467097 468102 467108 465112 461121
      459125 459131 459141 457145 457152 459158 465162 477171
      492179 495182 499183 506182 507187 506193 505206 504211
      506215 504218 502215 499211 495210 490207 486207 472209
      460212 454215 448217 440217 432219 431220 432224 433227
      438229 444228 447227 447231 445233 442233 435235 428239
      425247 425251 428252 431252 434255 441257 448257 462257
      469253 475260 481266 485273 494285 499287 506284 516274
      520266 522263 524258 526249 529239 530233 530230 532227
      533217 534210 536205 538199 542192 543187
 0.01 485230 485225 485220 481220 478219 476220 474222 472224
      470228 473231 476231 478230 479233 481231 485230
 0.01 469858 467855 467850 466841 465831 463824 461819 459817
      456818 454824 453830 451838 449843 444848 439849 436852
      436855 436859 438861 442860 446856 452853 455853 456857
      459862 462866 466866 467863 469858
 0.01 450701 449699 447697 446700 444700 443703 445705 446704
      448704 450701
 0.01 443735 443733 441732 440733 439733 438734 437736 438737
      440737 442736 443735
 0.01 401772 401766 398763 393761 389761 385762 379765 368773
      358780 353785 351787 350791 351801 353808 355818 360814
      369806 379796 387787 396777 401772
 0.25 438660 438654 437651 434648 432647 426647 419649 412652
      407657 398666 388676 381686 367708 354731 350738 348744
      348749 351751 356751 361747 369745 382744 389741 395738
      406730 412725 416720 423710 430697 433691 433682 436670
      438660
 0.25 419069 420064 418063 413061 404055 399055 395057 392060
      386060 383060 380062 375059 370058 365061 370082 370090
      368096 365102 362105 357106 351105 345097 339088 336084
      334082 330083 331092 331097 328100 323104 318105 313105
      308108 306112 307118 309123 309126 309144 304152 301156
      301161 306165 313166 319166 323164 325160 329157 338154
      348152 361153 367155 371158 378160 384158 388155 391150
      393142 394138 396131 398125 400121 407112 408104 407098
      406093 407087 410083 413080 417074 419069
 0.25 401795 400792 398791 394791 391792 387795 384797 381802
      380807 380810 382812 384812 387810 390806 393803 396800
      399797 401795
 0.25 351886 350881 347877 341871 340864 339858 337860 332861
      329864 325872 318890 315897 313907 312928 316931 317937
      317944 321945 325944 330939 335930 338921 344904 348894
      351886
 0.50 428669 427661 424658 421658 417659 410664 404669 393681
      383694 378700 374708 372717 372721 373727 379731 383731
      388730 393729 398726 403722 409715 414709 422694 424684
      426676 428669
 0.50 412073 413070 412067 409064 401061 394062 387065 385069
      381067 375062 372061 368061 367065 368068 374085 376094
      378101 377107 375110 369115 366115 362114 355111 349106
      345100 342096 339095 337096 335099 332109 331121 330131
      325137 322138 321141 326146 333146 342148 351146 359146
      374145 378145 381142 385133 390118 390114 390107 391102
      394099 401085 407077 412073
 0.50 342893 343888 342886 338885 336882 332882 327887 326893
      325900 324907 323911 324913 328915 332914 335909 337904
      340898 342893
 1.00 397073 396072 395071 394069 392068 391068 390070 389072
      388073 388075 388076 389077 390078 391080 392080 393080
      394080 395079 396078 397076 397074 397073
 1.00 386086 386081 383076 381074 379069 377066 373064 371066
      372071 373075 374080 377084 380086 383087 386087 386086
 1.00 376130 378125 379121 376119 370120 363120 354113 345105
      341102 338106 336113 337119 340125 338130 335136 340139
      346142 352141 363139 369136 372134 376130
 1.50 378078 378076 378075 377073 377071 377069 376068 375066
      374066 373068 374071 374073 374075 375075 375078 376079
      377079 378078
 1.50 364130 360125 357118 351112 346108 343106 341109 340112
      341115 347120 348125 344128 343131 347136 354136 359136
      361135 364130
 2.00 354122 355120 354118 353117 352117 351115 350114 349114
      347113 346112 345112 346112 346114 347115 348116 349118
      350119 350120 351121 352122 354122 354122

$$




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