Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 240947
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
546 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 24/1200 UTC THRU OCT 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


...NEW ENGLAND...

THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL BE PIVOTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TO OVER OR JUST EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA BY 00Z SAT. THE LATEST IR/WV SAT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
A WELL-DEFINED TROWAL WITH AN AXIS OF PWATS OF 1.00-1.25 INCHES
NUDGING INTO MAINE FROM THE GULF STREAM. ADDITIONAL MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS (.5O TO 1 INCH ON AVERAGE) ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...THE BULK OF WHICH WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING BEFORE THE
AXIS OF BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE LIFTS NORTH. AT THIS
STAGE...THE LATEST MODELS WERE ARE HANDLING THE TRACK/SPEED OF
THIS SYSTEM FAIRLY SIMILARLY...ALONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST
INFLOW AND DEGREE/DURATION OF DYNAMICAL FORCING...AND AS SUCH WPC
QPF LEANED TOWARD A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH THE QPF.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...NORTHERN
ROCKIES...

THE LATEST BLENDED TPW/GOES-SOUNDER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WELL-DEFINED PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALONG AND NORTH OF A SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN CA INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN. DURING THE PERIOD (THROUGH 12Z SAT)...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
WELL CLUSTERED WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHILE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER (AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS) TO BECOME MORE N-S ORIENTED WITH TIME
AS THE STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SFC SLOWLY LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
WEST COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD (12Z SAT). THE UPSHOT IS A
TRANSITIONAL PERIOD WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE PAC NW COAST LATER THIS AFTN AND
OVERNIGHT CORRESPONDING TO THE BEST WAA/WCB DYNAMICS (DEEP
ISENTROPIC ASCENT) WITH COUPLED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS (MORE ROBUST
UPPER DIVERGENCE) AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND WITHIN THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE NORTHERN JET STREAK. WPC AGAIN UTILIZED A GENERAL
MODEL COMPROMISE AS A STARTING POINT WITH THE QPF...THOUGH
UTILIZING MORE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF/NAM/RGEM AS WELL SOME
OF THE 4 KM GUIDANCE TO BETTER CAPTURE THE TERRAIN. AREAL AVERAGE
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN .25 TO .50 INCH FOR MOST...THOUGH WITH
MORE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS (1+ INCHES) ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
FAVORED ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE SW OR...NW OR...AND WA COASTAL
RANGES....ALONG WITH THE WA CASCADES.


...SOUTH FLORIDA...

25-30 KT LOW LEVEL INFLOW ALONG AND N OF A STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL FOCUS THE
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/FLUX CONVERGENCE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY (MAINLY THROUGH 18Z)...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SE
COAST AS THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/MCV LIFTS NE FROM CUBA TO THE
WESTERN BAHAMAS. AS THIS FEATURES LIFTS NE...THE SWATH OF HIGHER
PWATS (2.25-2.40") WILL PIVOT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA... AGAIN SE FL IN
PARTICULAR. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS CLIMB TO ABOVE 14000
FT AND...AT LEAST IN A NARROW STRIPE ACROSS S/SE FL...MUCAPES
RANGE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG PER CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS AND THE
LATEST WRF-ARW. THIS ALONG WITH THE PERIOD OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW (AND INCREASED UPWIND PROPAGATION) WILL MAKE FOR TRAINING
OF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL RANGE BETWEEN
1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER PER THE MAJORITY OF HIGH RES
(4KM) GUIDANCE...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 4+ INCHES ARE
ANTICIPATED...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SHORT TERM RUNOFF ISSUES (THOUGH
MORE OF AN URBAN FLOOD THREAT VS. FLASH FLOOD).


DAYS 2-3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE ROCKIES...

THE WET PATTERN ACCOMPANYING THE DE-AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AND MOVING INLAND.  MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS EVOLUTION...WITH THE COASTAL
RANGES AND CASCADES AS WELL AS PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
RECEIVING NEARLY AN INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ON
SUNDAY...WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF RELIED UPON FOR
GUIDANCE...WHICH WORKS WELL WHEN MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SMALL BUT
STILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED.  CONTINUED WITH THE SAME APPROACH
INLAND TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO MONDAY
WITH DIMINISHING MOISTURE VALUES IMPACTING THE WESTERN FACING
SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

...NORTHEAST...

GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE VIGOROUS LOW THAT
STRENGTHENS WHILE CROSSING SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE VALUES DUE TO CLOSE
PROXIMITY AND RECENT EXIT OF THE DEEP CLOSED LOW JUST OFFSHORE.
USED A COMBINATION OF THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RESOLVING NAM/ECMWF OVER
THE COARSER GFS TO DEPICT THE FINAL QPF VALUES...ALTHOUGH
DIFFERENCES WERE SMALL EVEN AMONGST THE MOST DIFFERING OF
SOLUTIONS.


HURLEY/JAMES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 447636 447632 449622 458602 474593 488597 499619 500639
      499652 496665 493677 490683 487687 480693 474703 468712
      460719 440719 431706 427700 428694 432689 436681 440676
      441674 440670 434663 433657 435652 440644 445640 447636
 0.01 390305 419316 435310 445304 449303 454303 460302 463300
      465297 467293 468288 471281 475276 480271 484266 486262
      488262 492271 495279 500285 505288 508282 503267 500258
      495250 496244 498240 502242 503244 505241 501235 507222
      508208 508203 508195 507190 508184 509179 512176 512173
      511170 509168 508164 509157 509151 508148 505146 502143
      499142 494140 491137 486131 480129 473128 469127 468130
      458125 452131 448138 445142 442142 437142 434148 433157
      434162 433166 430173 427182 422190 419202 416209 412213
      409218 407224 405227 399228 392225 387223 383223 376224
      369225 344231 338234 332238 332239 335243 341247 353246
      360245 365246 367245 374250 377252 378255 377258 373266
      370275 372287 377295 390305
 0.01 547852 547841 546828 543817 540810 533800 521794 510790
      496788 482791 473793 468798 465804 463811 463822 464831
      466839 470848 474853 480857 480867 482876 483882 485885
      488884 491881 494876 496869 497863 499861 501861 505865
      509870 512877 516885 519889 521890 527889 533886 539881
      543874 547852
 0.01 464112 464109 461108 458108 456105 455102 453100 451100
      451105 449109 447109 447112 448114 452115 454115 456113
      459111 462112 464112
 0.01 271793 271783 265778 256777 246779 237781 232786 230795
      229805 228813 227817 227823 230844 231846 235846 244844
      250839 252830 256825 258821 258815 258812 261809 267803
      270798 271793
 0.25 462632 465622 469607 475602 485604 490616 491630 492651
      492658 491664 489671 486676 477686 474690 468694 462693
      460692 459687 460680 462673 463666 464658 463640 462632
 0.25 415311 423309 432305 450294 457289 464282 478261 483253
      487251 489249 491245 490237 488234 484233 481227 478226
      475227 467227 463229 459230 462225 467222 471218 476217
      479215 483217 487221 491222 493220 494216 493212 491210
      484209 482206 480206 474205 466206 462204 460206 456210
      452213 447215 443216 440213 437214 436217 435225 439224
      442227 446227 449229 449232 445234 440234 437237 434234
      433231 429232 425235 419235 416234 412235 409237 403237
      398235 393238 393241 401250 404252 404255 401258 395266
      392272 394279 398283 407286 411288 415292 417294 415295
      411298 404300 402301 400303 401306 415311
 0.25 454231 454228 452230 454231 454231
 0.25 453159 453157 451157 450158 449160 449163 450165 452163
      452161 453159
 0.25 266792 265784 264782 261781 246783 240785 237790 233802
      233815 233821 234829 238832 243830 247819 250815 253810
      258807 261802 264798 266792
 0.50 478626 480614 483610 486614 487623 488632 489649 488657
      486664 480675 473685 467687 464683 465677 468671 470664
      468654 467645 466637 469631 474629 478626
 0.50 485246 486241 484239 481237 480234 479231 477230 472236
      451241 446242 440241 424239 420240 416243 414254 413260
      412262 404271 404275 406277 414280 420282 425286 424290
      423293 419298 415301 412307 419307 424304 433299 444293
      452287 462278 469268 476255 485246
 0.50 459217 460215 460214 459215 459217 459217
 0.50 262794 262784 254784 245785 241787 239789 237797 236806
      238808 241807 248804 250807 252809 258804 261799 262794
 1.00 472254 471251 468249 461249 454248 451247 448248 443249
      437250 432248 426249 419263 415268 415272 418274 424275
      432277 434284 437285 441286 445284 451279 459270 467260
      472254
 1.00 259799 259793 257789 258787 252787 249790 247793 245797
      243801 248801 252802 252806 255806 257802 259799
 1.50 455261 456256 452253 448252 445254 439257 437258 432257
      429257 426260 425264 421267 422269 426270 433270 440274
      444269 447266 450264 455261
 1.50 258799 258797 257795 257794 255794 253794 251795 249795
      248796 248797 246798 246799 248799 250798 252799 253799
      254800 255801 255803 256803 256801 257801 258799

24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 477618 486630 491638 494648 496654 498662 498670 497674
      493683 488691 485694 484698 484707 483719 482724 479726
      484751 486757 489759 496767 500774 504782 508789 510794
      510799 515811 517816 518822 520827 521834 522850 520871
      518876 515877 509873 502868 497863 492856 486846 479832
      468819 455808 453806 450807 445808 441808 439803 438782
      435787 434791 432795 429798 425801 421802 416801 412799
      405799 396803 384810 382811 380809 383802 389794 396791
      404785 407782 409775 410771 410765 413765 415762 416751
      420745 424742 426739 429735 429730 433727 436722 438716
      440715 440711 438710 435710 432713 427717 421714 420708
      417705 412707 408710 403708 404695 406684 414671 419664
      422658 427647 431645 436644 443645 448645 451639 455625
 0.01 447323 458318 469312 474305 479298 484292 489284 493278
      494275 497274 500275 504274 509273 517257 519253 520246
      522229 520221 519212 520205 519201 518193 516168 509154
      503148 499144 489133 482129 473126 461130 457130 455134
      452139 450142 446143 439143 435147 432150 432154 433161
      435164 443169 451180 449184 446186 438184 434184 430185
      427186 426184 426181 428177 425176 418173 412190 411193
      408196 405202 398199 392195 386191 381189 375188 370187
      366185 364186 358191 356200 355211 356214 355216 351218
      349221 348226 346230 348232 363236 369234 376237 382244
      386247 388250 393256 401259 417263 419263 423265 427271
      437283 440283 440287 438291 433300 426315
 0.01 452115 453110 453105 450099 443098 436099 431094 427094
      432099 429102 425103 422108 420110 417111 412114 408110
      405114 405118 408120 419126 429120 443118 448117 452115
 0.01 440204 439200 438197 436196 433194 429193 428192 426190
      424191 424193 422198 423201 426203 428204 431206 434207
      438206 440204
 0.01 401076 399069 395067 391068 389069 387074 383079 379080
      376082 376087 378092 383095 389093 390088 389084 390081
      393082 399079 401076
 0.01 265780 263771 259764 254761 247759 243760 241762 236768
      231780 229788 227796 226803 225811 227818 232824 235822
      240815 244811 246808 250806 258805 263799 261793 263784
      265780
 0.25 512247 513241 512237 513228 513220 515211 514208 512207
      511201 512195 514187 514176 510171 506167 502167 499165
      495159 495148 491141 485138 481137 480140 483146 479150
      473151 466149 462151 461155 465161 465171 468175 473175
      479173 484173 489177 494181 499187 500191 498196 493200
      487202 481203 476205 466209 458211 451214 444215 439215
      412214 409214 406212 399206 395203 388199 381197 378199
      386209 395219 385227 387238 392244 397248 428257 433261
      436265 438268 442270 447273 454275 456283 455288 456294
      460293 462291 469281 478271 487262 496264 500264 502263
      507256 512247
 0.25 490785 490780 489775 486770 482764 478760 473759 469763
      468771 470780 472786 476790 483791 486790 488788 490785
 0.25 470726 470725 469724 468722 468721 467722 466723 466725
      466727 466730 467731 469730 469729 470727 470726
 0.25 461180 461178 459178 457179 457181 459182 460181 461180
 0.25 457724 456722 456721 455722 454723 452724 451724 449725
      448726 448728 447729 448731 450733 452735 454734 454732
      455731 456730 456727 456726 457724
 0.25 452164 454161 454159 453157 452156 451156 450155 448154
      446153 445155 444155 444157 444158 445159 446161 447162
      447163 449165 450165 452164 452164
 0.50 510244 511239 510234 507225 501217 499213 494211 488208
      480206 473211 465213 458214 452217 435220 427220 421221
      412218 407215 403213 399208 391202 388201 386202 385205
      391211 403222 406227 405229 402229 397229 394230 391233
      391236 394243 404248 412249 421250 429252 434254 437256
      445262 452265 458264 464266 469266 477263 487256 491255
      495257 500259 501256 506250 510244
 0.50 490229 489226 487225 486224 484223 483223 481222 479222
      478222 476222 475222 474223 473224 473226 473229 475228
      477228 478229 480229 482230 483230 485230 487230 488230
      490229
 0.50 493148 491147 493148 493148
 0.50 473161 472159 470160 469160 469162 469163 471163 473161
 1.00 494243 493239 489239 479237 474237 470237 460234 452235
      446238 448240 454242 463242 467243 472246 475250 478251
      485248 493245 494243
 1.00 487218 487216 485217 484217 485217 487218 487218
 1.00 430246 432242 430239 425235 418234 411232 406233 401235
      400239 404244 409243 416245 423246 428247 430246
 1.00 399213 398212 397210 395209 394209 395211 395212 396213
      398214 399213
 1.50 427245 427243 427242 426241 424240 423239 421239 419238
      417238 416238 414237 412238 411240 412240 413241 415242
      417242 418243 420243 422244 424244 425245 427245 427245


24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 542201 542193 540186 539180 536174 528161 519152 520147
      522141 522131 521123 517113 515108 511104 510102 507101
      502101 493104 490106 488108 486112 483114 475123 471125
      468121 464109 458097 457092 454087 453079 451073 449060
      447053 444058 442068 441071 442074 443080 445087 446092
      444097 437097 432093 428089 426091 423092 419092 413091
      410086 412080 415072 415066 411061 406062 394061 389063
      386066 383071 380078 384083 388085 394087 395093 399095
      401097 402101 401106 398109 393112 390118 394119 399118
      402119 404121 409124 414125 416127 416132 416141 414158
      413162 414165 415167 417169 421172 426177 434185 436188
      436194 439200 442203 445204 447202 450199 453195 461186
      468180 471174 476173 480172 485175 489180 492189 493196
      491202 481204 476204 473205 453210 432214 418211 413216
      411221 411225 409226 405231 398237 395241 395246 399250
      404252 416254 428257 453256 457254 462253 472254 477254
      481251 487252 492251 500247 501253 504259 506261 508259
      509254 512254 516255 518253 518247 517241 515235 513222
      513213 515212 518214 521218 525222 528225 530226 533225
      536222
 0.01 510936 510931 509929 506922 504918 499914 490908 485906
      482904 483900 483894 480886 474877 471872 466868 457863
      452862 444862 440863 435868 434875 436884 441897 448906
      457911 463911 471910 475908 477912 475915 475936 476939
      477943 479947 482947 484950 491950 497949 502947 507942
      510936
 0.01 493679 490670 484660 475646 469639 466635 461635 458637
      454639 447637 440642 437647 435652 432660 434667 436671
      442675 446678 446685 452684 457685 457692 452698 445706
      439710 434720 430726 426734 434733 439733 440738 431740
      426743 425744 425748 429756 432766 433773 435775 439773
      440768 441760 442757 447751 458735 462727 465717 468709
      471704 474700 485687 491682 493679
 0.01 436143 437139 438134 438129 437124 437122 434119 431121
      429123 428127 428130 426132 427134 427137 428141 429144
      431147 435145 436143
 0.01 429016 429006 426001 422001 419008 416014 414019 412026
      411036 413041 417037 421032 423027 427021 429016
 0.01 382085 380083 378078 378071 376069 373065 369066 369071
      371075 370079 370084 373087 377090 380088 382085
 0.25 513157 509149 506143 504141 500142 495141 492139 489142
      488147 488152 492161 493166 492169 494174 498176 502178
      504182 508182 508177 508169 508164 509159 513157
 0.25 495220 495217 493215 488212 483210 479210 461216 452218
      442218 432221 428223 428228 432232 433235 431236 423239
      422244 428244 433245 438244 457242 467241 468238 464234
      458233 455232 455228 459227 465227 473222 477221 482223
      487225 492225 495220
 0.25 485669 481660 476653 469648 466647 461647 456649 453649
      451651 452654 456657 461655 463658 466662 468669 469674
      469679 472681 476680 483674 485669
 0.25 481160 480155 479152 477148 473146 466142 462143 460145
      455152 450153 446156 446162 450169 454170 456167 458163
      461161 468161 476162 481160
 0.25 462706 462701 460701 457702 455703 452706 450707 448709
      447712 447717 449719 452719 455718 457716 458714 460711
      461708 462706
 0.25 455113 453106 449102 444102 439103 433104 428107 425107
      424109 431110 436112 440113 445116 450117 455113
 0.25 409070 408068 405066 401067 400068 396069 394070 392072
      390075 390077 392079 395079 399079 401078 404077 406075
      408072 409070
 0.50 505171 504169 504168 503167 501166 500167 501169 502170
      502171 504172 505171
 0.50 483217 482215 480215 478215 478216 480216 482217 483217
      483217
 0.50 468220 468219 466218 464218 463218 462220 462221 464223
      465222 466222 467220 468220
 0.50 450222 448221 447220 445220 444220 443221 441221 439221
      438222 437223 437226 439227 440228 442228 443227 444227
      446227 447226 448226 449224 450224 450222
 0.50 448109 448107 447106 446105 444105 443106 444108 445111
      447111 448109

$$





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