Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 160621
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
220 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 16/1200 UTC THRU APR 17/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

PIECES OF ENERGY MOVG ACROSS THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE WAA PCPN ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE
PD.  INCRSG SHOWER INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVRNGT WED
INTO THU MRNG AS MORE SGFNT SHRTWV TROF APCHS THE COAST.  MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING PLACEMENT AND BASICALLY OPTED FOR
A SOLUTION THAT SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BTWN THE AGGRESSIVE UKMET AND
LGTR GFS CONCERNING TOTALS.

...CONCERNING THE AMPLIFYING N CNTRL U.S. SHRTWV TROF...

UPPER TROF CURRENTLY EXITING THE NRN ROCKIES IS FCST TO AMPLIFY
WITH TIME RESULTING IN A VIGOROUS SFC LO MOVG ACROSS THE N CNTRL
U.S. THRU THE PD.  MSTR SUPPLY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND THEREFORE EXPECT MOST PCPN TO FALL TO THE LEFT OF THE
SFC LO TRACK WHERE STG ISENTROPIC LIFTING PROCESSES WILL TAKE
PLACE ASOCTD WITH THE DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT.  HOWEVER...THE
INTENSITY OF THE VERT LIFT BEING GENERATED AND RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS SUGGESTIVE OF SOME MDT TO HVY PCPN
TOTALS.  TNGTS MODEL QPFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD ACCORD WITH BOTH THE
GFS AND UKMET TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER WWD WITH THE PCPN MAX FM
PRIOR RUNS.  TNGTS GEM REGIONAL SPLIT THE MINOR DIFFERENCE BTWN
THE SLIGHTLY MORE ERN GFS SCENARIO AND THE SLOWER UKMET AND USED
THAT AVG FOR THE PRELIM DAY1 PLACEMENT DETAILS.

MEANWHILE...A REGION OF INTENSE VERT MOTION ASOCTD WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND ANOTHER PIECE OF SHRTWV
ENERGY ADVANCING SEWD THRU THE S CNTRL ROCKIES BY WED EVNG SHOULD
FIRE PCPN BEHIND THE TRAILING CDFNT WHICH WILL HAVE WORKED SWD
THRU THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT CNTRL PLAINS.  MODEL QPFS PICK
UPON THIS OCCURRENCE NICELY WITH THEIR QPFS IN VRY GOOD ACCORD
CONCERNING BOTH PLACEMENT AND TOTALS.  SPLIT MODEL DIFFERENCES
CONCERNING THE LATITUDINAL PLACEMENT OF ACTVTY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS OVRNGT ON WED.

...FL...

LLVL ELYS..FRONTAL BAND AND FVBL DIV FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT
SCTD SHWR ACTVTY ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA.

KORTY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 17/12Z
 0.01 464622 472625 475631 477636 478643 477648 473657 467666
      463670 460672 456676 451678 447681 442682 424691 415696
      405698 401695 400690 401685 404680 408672 414665 428651
      443637 448631 455625
 0.01 539211 536173 532165 528162 522149 520143 525137 524129
      522120 511092 501062 498056 496054 493053 487065 485073
      482077 473071 465070 462067 461064 456056 455052 456049
      460047 460043 460037 459033 455019 455013 456010 457006
      458003 461995 464990 471974 473968 475958 477940 480933
      486930 491927 495920 498914 500906 500901 498893 495885
      493880 493875 491866 490852 487834 482819 478814 476812
      473812 465814 461815 459817 453830 451836 452846 451849
      448852 444853 443856 433876 430914 428921 425930 422946
      422961 420968 420979 421988 423996 423006 426012 426017
      424020 416019 413019 412024 415031 417039 420046 423062
      427066 431071 436076 441079 445085 438087 432093 430092
      428093 429097 431101 432105 434109 437110 440113 441115
      443120 445122 449124 451122 452124 453128 449131 449136
      451141 448143 444148 443151 442157 446162 448165 445169
      446173 448176 448180 445181 444186 450190 454191 459186
      464182 466179 469178 472181 473185 474189 474193 471201
      468207 462206 455211 450213 438216 434218 429223 431227
      433230 434234 428238 426242 426244 430250 434254 439258
      444259 452260 457260 465262 471268 479281 482285 487292
      496300 501300 505299 510296 513291 523262 519255 517246
      515237 514229 510222 505215 503211 503207 506207 508209
      511210 514209 518211 521213 528215 530219 534221 536222
 0.01 408070 396065 397062 399061 403059 406057 404053 400047
      398039 394036 390034 388025 386014 386010 386004 387979
      386966 384963 381963 378970 373978 369984 364991 357995
      351993 347995 345999 346002 348006 353012 356016 357020
      356027 355030 351037 350049 354055 362059 366060 366063
      366067 369069 372080 372084 374088 374098 376100 379099
      380087 386086 385084 385079 388079 390082 393082 395085
      398087 400081 402078 408070
 0.01 396115 396112 392112 387113 380112 378114 376111 373109
      371111 372113 372120 371125 373127 377128 381124 382122
      386123 390119 394117 396115
 0.01 292795 292790 289788 287784 283785 280787 278784 276782
      272783 268783 265785 260789 255795 250799 245804 242811
      242819 242824 245825 250822 255817 259811 263809 267809
      271814 273818 277818 281813 286808 289806 290801 292795
 0.25 518273 519268 519264 517259 513247 511239 509234 505229
      504223 499211 496206 490204 484203 479204 471210 467213
      462213 452216 446223 451227 452231 449236 448240 448244
      452248 458250 469255 474259 478263 483273 486279 490284
      498289 501291 506290 510288 513283 518273
 0.25 493143 493142 493140 492138 491140 492141 493143 493143
 0.25 489131 488130 487129 486128 485128 485131 486131 488132
      489131
 0.25 483902 483894 482886 482876 481867 479860 477854 474853
      472858 467861 461862 454870 451875 450883 449890 448899
      445912 440923 438928 437935 435949 436964 440969 442973
      445979 450979 458971 462967 464962 467949 471936 476922
      481913 483902
 0.25 468105 466102 463100 462098 458096 457093 456091 454090
      452091 451095 453098 455099 457101 460103 461105 465106
      468105
 0.25 452078 452076 451075 451073 450072 448071 448070 447069
      445069 443069 443070 442072 443073 443074 444075 446077
      447077 448078 449078 451078 452078
 0.25 395050 388046 382042 380040 378035 375029 373026 369028
      365034 364043 363047 365051 367053 372054 376054 380056
      383056 386055 393052 395050
 0.25 376006 377003 377001 376999 374000 373001 372003 372005
      372008 372010 372011 374011 375010 376008 376007 376006
 0.25 284798 283796 282795 281796 280796 279797 277797 275797
      274798 272799 274801 276802 277803 278804 278803 279802
      281801 282800 283799 284798
 0.50 515269 515263 514258 510247 507237 503232 501227 498218
      494213 489212 486212 484210 479209 475211 472214 466223
      463220 459221 457222 461225 463227 463231 460235 456235
      454238 457243 461245 471251 478256 484265 489274 495281
      499284 503286 507285 510279 511273 515269 515269
 0.50 499253 499248 497242 494238 492235 491229 487227 483227
      481228 481231 483235 487236 491240 493244 496249 498253
      499253
 0.50 477905 478901 478898 477892 475882 473879 469878 463876
      458878 456881 454890 453899 451908 448917 445925 442932
      445942 448949 448954 452955 455957 457956 461949 464942
      466932 472917 475910 477905
 0.50 383051 383049 381047 378044 376043 373042 369043 369046
      369048 371050 374051 377052 380053 381053 383051
 1.00 504278 504273 502267 497260 492251 488243 486246 483246
      481244 477237 475240 477243 483250 488258 492266 497274
      500277 504278
 1.00 462915 463913 462911 460910 462910 462908 462907 460907
      460908 460910 459913 458913 458915 457917 457918 456920
      457921 458923 459923 460923 461920 462918 462917 462915

$$




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