Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 300647
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 30/1200 UTC THRU AUG 31/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA

PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF
THE FL PENINSULA DAY 1 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
REMNANTS OF ERIKA BEING DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CLOSED LOW AND
AHEAD OF ANY MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTS COMING OUT OF THE TROPICS
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS IN THE
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA.  THERE
IS A LOT OF QPF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS---BUT A
DEFINITE SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED URBAN RUNOFF ISSUES DAY 1
ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA.

COASTAL SOUTHEAST

SEPARATE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA---HIGH PW VALUES AND FAVORABLE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO BE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST UPPER LOW---INTO THE COASTAL
SOUTHEAST.  MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
HOW FAR AND FAST HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.  THERE IS--HOWEVER---GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR HEAVY
TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AT LEAST REACHING COASTAL AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEAST---POSSIBLY EXTENDING FARTHER INLAND.  DAY 1 QPF DID LEAN
TOWARD THE FARTHER INLAND HEAVY RAIN SOLUTIONS OF THE
ECMWF---UKMET AND NSSL WRF GIVEN THE STRONG UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW
INITIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THAT WILL BE PRESSING
NORTHEASTWARD.

SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES---OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY

THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE LOWER MO
VALLEY---EAST NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOWER LAKES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER DAY 1.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY
WHERE PW VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS ACROSS THESE AREAS.  MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST--NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS

THE STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALASKA INTO
NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MAINTAIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. DAY 1.  THE
SECOND STRONG VORT ROTATING OUT OF THE MEAN NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROF
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL RACE INLAND SUNDAY THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES---AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.  A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
UVVS AHEAD OF THIS VORT AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW IN
ITS WAKE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SHOWERY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER---ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WA AND NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND ALONG THE NORTHERN
OREGON COAST RANGE---NORTHWARD TO THE OLYMPIC RANGE.  MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS ALSO POSSIBLE INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD AREA OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
DURING SUNDAY.  SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO LIKELY TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE INLAND MOVING STRONG HEIGHT FALLS.  THE
EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS

SOUTHWEST---GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
STRETCH ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO---INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND GREAT BASIN.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF AZ---WESTERN NM INTO
WESTERN CO AND UT.  UVVS MAY BE ENHANCED OVER THE GREAT BASIN FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAST MOVING
HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 538210 539201 539193 534183 529172 526166 523163 517154
      509149 501143 495139 491135 488131 483128 479125 473124
      474119 476117 480117 484118 488114 493104 499093 503083
      506077 510075 514072 517067 519062 519057 517049 516046
      514043 519035 523031 525026 522019 505005 500003 495002
      484002 463006 463011 465017 469026 472031 474034 474038
      473044 470051 467064 466071 463077 460090 456101 453106
      449109 447111 443111 441110 439107 436110 434114 440115
      444120 447124 452122 454119 458116 460120 458124 456130
      454145 450158 448163 447170 448178 445182 441187 439195
      444204 446206 445208 441211 433218 425222 423224 426227
      424231 420234 411235 406237 402242 408251 412253 417254
      422253 427251 437250 446249 456249 460249 466251 472253
      477258 489275 494285 498290 502291 506289 510286 513282
      515278 520264 520255 519247 516241 515234 510225 505214
      502209 502205 505201 509205 514213 518219 523222 528223
      532222 536216 538210
 0.01 482685 480679 477676 473672 471672 468674 462681 457692
      449699 448704 448712 454723 454725 457725 461722 467714
      470710 473705 476701 478696 480690 482685
 0.01 433752 432743 431737 427726 424724 421729 415736 412741
      411746 408755 406761 404767 402779 399790 396793 391796
      382802 378805 376807 373812 371805 365800 359789 356779
      354772 353764 352760 349755 345750 345748 343746 336743
      330748 325756 323757 319757 315757 308758 304758 300758
      289759 284759 280759 267760 259765 244776 237782 230788
      226799 224807 220817 218821 219826 222837 225841 226847
      234849 243853 249853 254851 259850 265851 270852 276851
      285848 290847 296848 307849 320862 325881 327889 328894
      332896 341901 348904 353906 357910 359913 355919 352921
      348925 341930 339933 341940 341945 345947 348952 352955
      356956 361956 366954 368952 372947 374943 377938 379934
      384927 389917 393907 397897 401887 405875 408864 410859
      413854 416846 420833 424824 427814 429802 432773 433752
 0.01 224061 226067 228073 232077 237081 246088 253091 258095
      269100 279108 288115 294118 303119 315116 326112 330112
      333114 337118 341122 348126 354129 358134 363138 367139
      386125 386122 388121 394120 407117 412115 414112 414106
      413104 412101 408100 402096 406092 411089 412086 413082
      413074 410067 405065 402066 398064 392063 387065 384067
      380065 376061 372057 372053 374051 370050 367051 363051
      360051 357053 357061 354069 349072 335071 329074 327080
      327084 326086 324089 320088 308083 296077 284070 274064
      262058 251054 244054 237052 230050 227051 225054
 0.01 283962 282958 277956 265955 252955 239955 235963 233968
      234973 236978 241981 245982 251982 264982 274980 279970
      283962
 0.25 533211 534203 533197 530186 525176 520167 516164 512162
      509164 505164 496164 487159 483157 478156 474157 470154
      468150 463147 460149 458155 460159 465160 468163 473162
      476164 479169 485176 493183 502188 509194 515202 520210
      530214 533211
 0.25 514274 517265 517254 516248 513242 509230 503218 500212
      496207 491206 485207 476209 466215 443218 439219 438223
      440227 447227 452225 456227 457231 455234 450235 448236
      447240 454241 459240 464239 469243 478251 485261 499283
      504284 508282 512279 514274
 0.25 487233 486228 484224 479222 475222 471222 467225 465229
      464232 469233 472231 476230 478231 481234 484235 487233
 0.25 491142 490141 489139 489138 487137 487136 486135 484135
      482134 481135 479137 480138 482139 484139 485139 487140
      488141 488142 490143 491142
 0.25 420780 419777 415779 412786 410793 411801 408810 406817
      407823 408824 413817 415809 417802 418792 420783 420780
 0.25 379080 379078 379077 379076 378073 377071 376070 375071
      374073 374075 374078 374080 375082 377083 378083 379081
      379080
 0.25 356821 355815 354812 349804 346796 343785 344781 343776
      340773 336772 326773 315776 307778 298778 280777 270777
      260779 251782 243786 238792 234799 232806 229815 228824
      229828 231832 234834 238835 248837 263840 273842 281842
      291841 295841 298838 306835 313837 321840 327846 335861
      339864 343863 348857 349847 350840 352837 355829 356821
 0.25 295098 295094 295091 293085 288081 284078 270076 260070
      248066 243066 243070 245072 247076 252081 255083 261086
      267088 271091 280099 286101 292100 295098
 0.50 530205 529196 526187 523181 520177 517175 511170 508169
      504168 503172 503178 507185 512190 516196 520204 526209
      529207 530205
 0.50 514271 515264 516255 514250 512244 504226 499216 496210
      494210 485210 475212 473214 473217 475218 480219 485222
      489226 491230 495240 501248 502252 501256 498255 493246
      490240 487237 484240 484248 484254 487259 497276 500281
      505282 511276 514271
 0.50 482244 481243 481242 481239 480238 480236 479234 479233
      478232 476231 475232 474232 472234 471236 471238 472239
      473241 473242 475243 476244 478245 479246 480246 481246
      482244
 0.50 348833 348823 346814 344808 342797 341787 341781 339778
      333778 325781 308782 292783 277782 269783 261784 255786
      248789 244793 239799 234811 233819 234827 236830 239831
      246833 253834 260835 267836 271836 276834 282833 291832
      298832 305830 311831 319833 329841 335845 343843 347839
      348833
 1.00 512268 513261 513255 509246 505236 500228 497219 494217
      490216 490221 492227 495236 500243 504252 508261 512268
 1.00 504278 505273 504270 502264 498259 495254 492248 488242
      487241 486243 487251 489257 491263 495269 497273 501279
      504278
 1.00 479238 478236 477235 476234 475234 475237 475238 477238
      478240 479238
 1.00 337812 336807 336801 336793 333787 328786 321787 307789
      294791 282790 270790 263791 256793 247798 241805 238810
      237816 237821 239826 244828 250830 262831 267831 272830
      276826 280825 284824 290825 296825 303823 317823 327825
      332824 335820 337812
 1.50 503275 503271 502267 500264 499263 497260 495257 493254
      492252 490255 491259 492262 494264 496268 498270 499273
      500275 503275
 1.50 507248 506245 505242 504240 503239 502238 501236 500235
      500234 498233 497234 497237 499239 500240 500241 502243
      503245 504247 506248 507248
 1.50 331802 330795 327792 315793 302794 292794 287796 284800
      286805 289810 292813 297814 308815 317817 323816 327814
      330809 331804 331802
 1.50 272824 271819 268815 266811 265806 266803 268799 266796
      260795 254796 250799 243805 239815 241822 243825 248827
      254828 265829 268828 272824 272824
 2.00 501272 501271 501269 500268 499266 498265 497263 496260
      495257 494256 493255 492256 492258 493260 493261 494262
      495263 497265 498267 499269 501272 501272
 2.00 326805 325798 319797 312797 306797 299798 295801 296805
      297807 302810 307812 313813 319813 323810 326805
 2.00 270824 269820 266818 261813 260807 262799 258798 253798
      247802 243808 241815 245823 250825 258826 267826 270824
 3.00 266823 263819 257815 255812 254808 254806 255801 250803
      247807 245813 245817 247819 252820 257824 263825 266823

$$





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