Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 160659
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 AM EST THU NOV 16 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 16/1200 UTC THRU NOV 17/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


...CALIFORNIA...

A POTENT AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT CONTINUES
TO EVOLVE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CA EARLY THIS MORNING. PER THE
ESRL ARDT ANALYSIS AND 6 HOURLY GFS-BASED FORECAST...AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WITH AN ATTENDANT ANOMALOUS PLUME OF INTEGRATED
WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) WAS DIRECTED INTO NORTHERN CA...
COINCIDENT WITH THE 125+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND 500-300 MB
LAYER PW VALUES ~0.25".

THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THIS AR...SAFELY TUCKED UNDERNEATH THE
LONGWAVE UPPER LOW AND FURTHER FUELED BY ADDITIONAL
DAMPENED...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED ALONG THE NEXT
UPPER JET STREAK...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY ANOMALOUS PWS OF
1-1.25+ INCHES AS IT SLOWLY DIPS SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CA IN
RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH PASSAGE/HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE PAC NW AND
NORTHERN CA. PW STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES PER BOTH THE SREF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO BE A ROBUST +2 TO +3...THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TO GO ALONG WITH EQUALLY HEALTHY 850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX
ANOMALIES OF +3 TO +4 WITHIN THE EXPANSIVE WSW-ENE ORIENTED WARM
CONVEYOR BELT. MOREOVER...MUCAPES OF 100-200 J/KG (BOTH OBSERVED
PER THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS AND PROGGED PER THE GFS/ECMWF WILL
CERTAINLY HELP THE ALREADY-HEALTHY 1-3 HOUR RAINFALL RAINS IN
AREAS OF FORCED OROGRAPHIC ASCENT -- I.E. FROM THE BAY AREA INTO
THE CENTRAL CA COASTAL RANGES AND ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE SIERRA WITH THE ORTHOGONAL W-WSW LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES OF 0.50-0.75" AND 3HR RATES UP TO 1.5" CONTINUE TO
BE NOTED ACROSS THESE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS PER THE BEVY OF
AVAILABLE HIGH-RESOLUTION CAM GUIDANCE. FORECAST AVERAGE
EVENT-TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 3.0 INCHES (LOCALLY
GREATER) ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES AND 3-6+ INCHES OVER MUCH OF
THE SIERRA. THESE AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE CLUSTER OF BURN SCARS.
WPC QPF NUDGED TOWARD AN ENSEMBLE OF THE 00Z HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
(ESPECIALLY THE WRF-ARW...HREF MEAN...AND NBM... WHICH WAS CLOSE
TO CONTINUITY (PREVIOUS FORECAST).


...REST OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY EVEN TOTALS OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM NW WY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN ID. THE WEST COAST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL FOCUS ON THE
SOUTH FACING SLOPES IN IDAHO AND WEST FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN
WYOMING...THEN EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE UINTAS AND WASATCH MTNS.
AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
GIVEN THE HIGHER SENSITIVITY OVER THE TERRAIN. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.


...NORTHEASTERN U.S...

A WELL MODELED MEDIUM WAVELENGTH TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WILL PERFORM A SURFACE HAND
OFF TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WAS
DRAWING ON MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE...YIELDING FAIRLY UNIFORM LIGHT
RAIN AMOUNTS JUST UNDER A HALF INCH OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS...WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE REGION OF STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS AND CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
WARM ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING LIGHT RAIN. THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD THEN LEAD TO A HEAVIER RAIN
EVENT...ALTHOUGH STILL MODEST IN DURATION AND INTENSITY...OVER NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. THE HI-RES GUIDANCE EMPHASIZES OFFSHORE
CONVECTION...WHILE THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND NAM SEEM TO DO A BETTER
JOB CAPTURING THE PRECIPITATION SWATH THAT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW. WPC STARTED WITH A
BLEND OF THE NAM...OUR IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE...AND THE WPC
FORECAST...WITH HEAVIEST WEIGHT TOWARD THE 12Z NAM.


HURLEY/BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 17/12Z
 0.01 486614 495623 500629 502632 504637 506647 506653 506658
      507670 507682 506691 504699 500706 494710 487712 484710
      482714 479724 480736 484743 487750 489753 490760 491763
      490768 488777 487781 485786 475798 471801 467807 459821
      457832 455839 453847 446853 446847 445842 447838 449830
      445823 441823 438822 431821 428818 426814 429807 439798
      438793 438789 436787 429792 426800 426803 422805 417813
      416816 413818 411815 410811 409801 406799 401798 394801
      388804 383805 381802 386797 389792 401785 408781 409777
      409773 408769 410765 413760 416757 417750 417747 414743
      409744 400745 396746 394748 389749 385747 384731 373726
      365727 358726 354727 351726 347725 346720 348712 351704
      354701 351700 344699 336694 333691 330686
 0.01 547178 546170 543162 539156 536155 534158 530167 528169
      526168 524165 518159 516156 515150 511143 507136 504127
      501115 506094 512076 511067 510064 507062 504062 501064
      499067 497071 493079 491086 490100 490107 491112 493123
      490126 487127 478123 472121 464121 463123 461123 458119
      459113 461110 464106 463101 462098 461093 462082 464073
      464066 462062 457058 450055 445048 445043 443038 440038
      441042 442052 441059 440064 433072 432073 436074 444077
      449082 451085 450089 448090 446089 438087 434087 431085
      428082 427079 425069 428063 430059 428056 420052 412053
      408052 405050 401051 397054 390057 377053 368052 363052
      359054 359056 362056 364058 362060 360061 358064 362070
      365078 369084 383095 390098 393101 392107 389110 385112
      379116 372117 363116 358116 355117 352119 357122 360124
      360127 356131 358138 360141 366144 370141 376137 381131
      389128 393129 395132 392136 388138 386141 385145 387153
      388157 386160 384163 382166 381172 378175 365176 361175
      358177 352180 350181 347179 344171 342168 338167 342173
      341183 340194 339205 337212 336216 333228 332233 330238
      329241 331243 335249 343261 351262 355257 360250 366245
      372241 377235 380233 383235 387241 393248 396250 401251
      432255 439254 447256 453261 458267 461269 463273 464276
      465283 462286 461293 463304 466312 472317 478319 480318
      480314 480309 478305 477302 476299 478297 484300 490294
      497294 499294 500289 502278 499271 495265 497262 502262
      507258 513237 510220 505212 503209 504205 511208 517214
      522220 527228 531228 535224
 0.01 519263 517262 516259 515258 513258 514261 515264 517265
      519263 519263
 0.01 514282 514279 513277 511273 509272 508269 506269 504273
      503275 505279 506280 508283 511285 513284 514282
 0.01 491191 491188 489186 484186 482186 479181 477177 473175
      466177 461187 456192 453196 451203 451206 454207 457204
      461203 465203 472200 481199 488196 491191
 0.01 504919 502913 500913 499909 500902 500893 497881 495875
      492869 490865 487861 479857 473857 469856 465851 463854
      461859 457864 455867 454874 454881 457884 462887 463888
      464890 463893 463896 465898 467896 467893 469892 470894
      473900 475903 476912 475918 475927 475935 475939 477942
      480941 481947 484950 487949 489947 491943 494937 500930
      503926 504919
 0.01 398961 398959 398958 396956 395958 393958 393959 391961
      389963 391965 391966 393966 393965 395963 396961 398961
      398961
 0.01 381062 381059 379056 377055 374053 370053 368055 365054
      363056 364058 368057 372058 375060 377061 378063 381062
 0.01 366160 366157 366155 365153 363152 361152 359152 357153
      357154 355155 357158 359158 360161 362161 364160 366160
      366160
 0.01 375927 373922 365922 353927 348932 344936 339940 334936
      326936 321940 317945 314951 311956 307962 303964 296968
      283972 268974 266976 271981 277985 282988 293991 301990
      308988 313986 319982 327973 337966 343965 346967 352963
      356958 366950 369945 372940 375927
 0.01 299792 298787 294785 289786 285786 280787 276789 270790
      265789 260789 258787 259785 261781 261778 258777 255777
      251779 244785 241787 238791 233798 229807 228812 229819
      230822 232825 234825 238822 241818 246811 248808 252805
      264804 272808 289805 295798 299792
 0.25 455625 475626 478628 482631 486635 489639 491646 491653
      489660 486665 483677 480682 475686 470694 467700 462703
      459706 456712 451723 450728 445732 434730 429733 425733
      420731 417732 411734 406733 402730 400725 400719 398718
      395718 383723 376718 364718 358718 357718 356714 357712
      360710 367709 372708 378705 385698 390693 394690 400689
      407688 411690 415689 420687 424683 426677 425669 434662
      436658 435653 431649 426648 415651 404654 393659 388661
      383662 380661 379656 382651 387648 393646 418638
 0.25 511183 510178 507172 505167 502162 501159 503156 503152
      500150 495146 492140 488134 484131 479129 471128 470135
      465139 460139 455141 451141 447138 445133 444129 446126
      453115 454108 457100 454094 447093 433090 429086 425084
      421085 419085 419089 422091 424095 422098 418100 414102
      409099 393113 392114 395117 399119 405122 413124 417128
      419135 417141 414144 405148 400149 399158 399163 398168
      393171 386170 384178 387183 392183 403187 406193 405198
      404202 401200 398196 395193 389190 386185 382183 375180
      368178 361179 355181 353186 358191 361195 364202 359202
      356203 353202 349203 350208 352214 353220 351227 350235
      352237 352240 351245 353249 363242 371234 379226 382220
      387216 393216 397218 402221 404226 399227 393228 390231
      390237 394241 401244 408247 414248 428249 439247 450247
      460248 469247 475247 481248 491258 495257 496253 496249
      502242 504233 503224 501217 498211 494207 490205 484204
      479205 470208 463207 459207 458210 456212 452212 446214
      440213 437213 433210 428199 427193 429187 430179 433174
      436168 440167 447169 450173 453174 455172 459165 463164
      469164 475165 481169 487173 493175 496180 501183 504186
      508186 511183
 0.25 480145 480143 479142 478142 477141 475141 475143 474144
      474146 475146 476147 478147 480145 480145
 0.25 473708 473705 472704 472703 470703 469703 469704 468707
      468709 468711 468712 467714 467717 467719 467722 468722
      469722 470721 471720 472718 472717 473715 473713 473710
      473708 473708
 0.25 448746 448741 447741 444744 443745 439747 438748 435751
      435754 433757 433761 436761 438760 440757 441755 444753
      445751 447749 448746
 0.25 446072 445070 443069 441069 441071 441072 443073 444075
      446072
 0.25 436727 435727 433726 432726 430728 428728 428729 429729
      430728 432728 434729 435727 436727
 0.25 431759 431757 431754 430752 429752 428754 428755 427757
      427760 428762 429763 430762 430760 431759
 0.25 425791 425789 425786 424786 424787 423788 422789 421791
      421792 420794 419794 418797 418798 418799 418802 419802
      420801 421799 422798 423796 423795 424794 425792 425791
 0.25 411183 410180 408181 407182 408184 409184 411183
 0.25 420074 417069 416061 403058 403063 401066 397066 393065
      387062 385064 384070 383072 379072 376067 375064 371062
      367063 368066 371072 373074 373080 374082 377082 382083
      386084 386082 385079 385075 391078 393077 397076 400076
      403074 405073 410074 416075 420074
 0.25 291797 290795 288795 283797 271796 267795 260795 254797
      249795 244797 240799 237803 238809 243807 246803 250800
      254800 259801 265801 270802 275803 280804 285802 291797
 0.50 501235 501233 501230 501227 501226 500225 499223 499221
      498220 497219 495219 494220 493222 493225 493228 493230
      494230 494233 495234 496236 497238 499238 500238 501235
      501235
 0.50 483656 484650 482644 479641 476640 461638 457638 454637
      451639 449644 449649 446653 442660 436666 434669 435673
      435678 434682 433687 430690 418700 414702 411700 403696
      397695 393697 390699 385706 382714 383717 386719 393713
      400708 404706 410705 415708 420714 413718 410721 410728
      416725 419723 422719 425717 428717 436719 441718 449713
      454706 458698 463693 468686 473680 478671 482664 483656
 0.50 485215 484212 482211 481211 481214 482214 484215 485215
 0.50 467222 469216 466212 462211 458214 452215 444216 428218
      425218 422221 421224 425227 429229 430234 422234 416232
      412233 409237 408239 411242 418244 427246 431245 434242
      435237 439238 449239 457240 463237 464233 464228 467222
 0.50 465151 465149 464148 463149 462151 464152 465151
 0.50 446157 437136 434132 432125 435119 440116 444118 446118
      448116 451110 450105 452099 451097 448096 438093 435094
      433092 429088 425086 423088 424091 427096 429101 423102
      419104 415107 410104 406102 403107 399110 398113 403117
      409119 420123 423129 426134 428138 432142 435155 441159
      444159 446157
 0.50 411221 413218 412214 407212 401204 398199 394196 385189
      377184 372181 367180 363180 358182 357186 361190 364193
      366198 367203 366207 363205 360204 358205 353206 354212
      356216 357221 356229 355237 355241 357243 365238 372230
      385214 389213 394214 403219 408223 411221
 0.50 418161 420157 419152 417149 413150 411151 409154 408156
      407161 407166 408168 411169 413169 415165 416163 418161
 0.50 390073 391070 391069 389068 387070 387072 388074 390073
      390073
 0.50 269798 268797 266797 264798 263798 264799 266799 268799
      269798
 1.00 472660 468656 465655 460659 456663 451667 449670 451674
      454678 459680 464678 468671 470666 472663 472660
 1.00 462223 463221 463218 463217 461218 459219 459220 459222
      460222 460223 462224 462223
 1.00 449222 448220 447219 445220 444220 444223 446224 446223
      448223 449222
 1.00 443703 443701 442699 440697 439698 437698 435699 434701
      432702 431703 430704 430707 431709 433710 435710 437709
      438708 440707 442706 443704 443703
 1.00 446111 445105 443100 440098 436100 434096 430092 429090
      426091 428094 431099 432102 430105 424105 423105 423109
      425113 421114 415114 412115 417117 424118 427114 431113
      437112 442113 444113 446111
 1.00 426240 426239 424239 423238 422238 423239 424240 426240
      426240
 1.00 400213 400209 399204 392197 385192 378187 370182 365181
      361183 360187 363190 368196 372204 375207 380210 386211
      390211 398214 400213
 1.00 410110 410108 409106 408105 407105 405107 404109 403111
      403112 405113 406114 408112 410110
 1.00 376219 375214 371211 366210 362208 362211 358211 356212
      358217 360221 362225 365227 368228 373225 375221 376219
 1.50 444108 443106 442105 441105 440106 439107 438107 437108
      435109 437110 438110 440110 442111 442110 444109 444108
 1.50 431094 429093 428091 428092 428094 429095 431094
 1.50 399211 398206 396202 388196 386194 381191 375186 371183
      366182 363183 362187 368194 373201 379208 386210 391209
      396212 399211
 1.50 374218 374215 371214 367213 365216 364216 361215 361217
      363219 364222 366223 367223 369225 371224 373220 374218
 2.00 397210 397207 395203 389199 384193 378189 371185 367183
      364184 364188 367191 371197 375202 378205 381207 389208
      392208 396210 397210
 2.00 371220 371218 370215 369217 369219 370221 371220
 3.00 392204 389201 386198 383194 379192 375189 371187 369185
      366187 369190 372195 373198 376201 381204 383204 388205
      392204
 4.00 385200 384198 383196 382195 381194 379193 378193 376192
      374192 373193 374195 375197 376198 377199 378200 380201
      382202 383202 385200

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