Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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526
FXUS04 KWBC 190634
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
233 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 19/1200 UTC THRU SEP 20/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST EASTWARD INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

GUIDANCE REASONABLY AGREES THAT AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS OVER THE NWRN US INTO THE N-CENTRAL US AS KICKER UPSTREAM
S/WV ENERGY AND POWERFUL JET DIG OVER THE NERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NW. AS A LEAD COLD FRONT PUSHES RAPIDLY TO THE N-CENTRAL
US...STRONG COOLING WILL CHANGE POST-FRONTAL RAINS TO SNOW OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES AS WELL AS FARTHER EAST OVER
THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NRN ROCKIES WHERE STRONG LEFT
EXIT REGION UPPER JET LIFT WILL TEND TO SUPPORT A HEAVY SNOW FOCUS
TO THE TETONS/NW WY...SEE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON SNOW. CONSIDERABLE
POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW AND ADDED DYNAMICS WITH KICKER TROUGH
ENERGY ADVANCE SHOULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY
UPSLOPE PCPN INTO THE COASTAL RANGES OF OREGON/WA EWD INTO THE
CASCADES. MODELS GENLY SUPPORT THAT IDEA..SO A GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE WITH EMPHASIS TOWARD HIER RES GUIDANCE FOR TOPO DETAIL
WAS FOLLOWED ALONG WITH CONTINUITY.

DOWNSTREAM...AS AMPLE ENERGY WORKS INTO THE N-CENTRAL US INTO
LATER DAY1...MODELS SHOW STRONG RETURN SRLY FLOW DEVELOPING UP
INTO THE DAKOTAS/MN WHERE A NARROW AXIS OF 1.5-1.75" PWS POOL INTO
A REGION UNDER A COUPLED UPPER JET. INCREASING LIFT AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD COMBINE WITH TRIPLE POINT ENHANCED FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG CONVECTION AND A QUICK FEW
INCHES OF RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCAL RUNOFF ISSUES.


...OH VALLEY...

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
STATES AHEAD OF A WEAKENING S/WV TROUGH AND TRAILING RIPPLES
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUE EVENING. AN OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND IN PCPN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED ENERGY
MOVES INTO A REGION OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND WEAKER
INFLOW...BUT WITH SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AND OVERALL
SLOWING OF SYSTEM AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INTO A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE...SOME CELLS MAY PRODUCE LOCAL 1"+ AMOUNTS. AREAL AVERAGE
WISE...EXPECT SOME .25-.50" AMOUNTS IN A NARROWING AXIS OF 1.5 TO
1.75 INCH PWS.


...COASTAL NRN MID ATLC TO SERN NEW ENGLAND...

WITH THE CONTINUED OFFSHORE APPROACH OF JOSE...WAA
PATTERN/WRAPPING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RAINS ALONG
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD BACK INTO PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL NRN MID-ATLANTIC...WITH THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW
ESPECIALLY FAVORING AREAS FROM ERN LONG ISLAND INTO SE MA AS
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY/AMOUNTS INCREASE. A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF THE
NHC TRACK OF JOSE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY FAVORS TIGHTER
MOISTURE/PCPN GRADIENT ON ITS WRN PERIPHERY. THIS ALSO SEEMS TO BE
SUPPORTED BY GENERAL OFFSHORE MODEL TRENDS OF THE LAST FEW MODEL
CYCLES. EVEN SO...THERE REMAINS A RISK OF RUNOFF ISSUES OVER SERN
NEW ENGLAND.

SCHICHTEL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 464622 469629 472638 472642 472649 472652 471658 469667
      468671 466675 461683 457690 449702 445709 440716 430728
      419739 408750 397759 387761 383761 380760 373758 364758
      358756 352751 343739 334726 333721 334718 337710 339702
      341694 344687 348680 353674 360669 374660 383654 386650
      391646
 0.01 440630 439632 437633 436633 434635 433637 431637 429638
      428639 426641 425642 423642 421642 420643 418643 418642
      416643 414641 412642 410642 409642 407642 405642
 0.01 555048 552028 552015 555006 557997 557983 557977 555972
      552963 546956 541952 529941 520927 515915 510908 505905
      499900 493897 486894 480889 478886 475886 471887 469890
      465896 464898 461900 452900 448901 445903 443904 441908
      436914 428918 419921 418924 419929 421933 423935 429941
      429946 427950 420964 417972 414973 412976 410982 409988
      410994 414994 423993 426994 428997 432014 435019 438021
      442022 438046 437049 433051 427054 419068 415072 416064
      409059 409056 405060 404068 401071 398071 396073 397076
      400075 402075 402079 408077 410075 412076 413079 407099
      405106 401112 404119 412123 421125 428121 437121 439121
      440124 439130 437133 433133 429134 429138 430154 432161
      431166 428168 427170 428173 431172 436173 438177 438182
      436189 435205 432211 428209 426206 423206 421209 422215
      420217 417219 409217 407219 408223 404229 398233 395240
      398246 403253 408258 417262 426265 438273 451282 462296
      467301 469305 474307 482310 484310 487306 491300 493298
      494294 494283 493273 494270 497270 501270 509259 514253
      516238 516233 516225 512217 511214 508211 503207 501198
      504195 506194 512190 515190 518189 522184 525174 523166
      522157 508148 505149 500148 497141 491134 488131 484130
      482127 478126 475126 472123 469122 468120 469118 470114
      469110 469091 471079 472073 474070 479062 481060 485058
      491061 497066 502070 512072 521073 524071 524064 525060
      529059 534063 540066 545071 547071 548068 550060 555048
 0.01 510668 510664 508662 504660 498661 494663 488674 484685
      479697 476702 473707 467716 460726 454735 452740 451743
      451748 455751 454758 453764 457766 467762 474754 481745
      488735 493725 500716 506706 512695 512688 511680 509672
      510668
 0.01 430185 429185 427184 426187 426189 428187 430185 430185
 0.01 432876 429857 430849 430844 429840 426831 423825 418818
      412814 410812 407813 400818 394821 390823 386824 378825
      375827 371828 365827 362827 353828 350829 348833 348842
      349852 346860 343868 336873 328875 323870 321862 318855
      315847 310841 306841 302842 299846 303865 303874 301884
      300892 298900 295916 297926 297931 296934 294934 289939
      286946 283952 278958 274965 274970 277972 279971 284970
      286966 288963 290966 291972 297969 303964 307958 308956
      310950 314933 314926 312921 312915 313911 314907 316904
      319902 324901 326903 328909 328915 328921 330924 333924
      335922 339917 339906 340905 344905 352906 359905 362903
      365899 371894 376890 388881 394877 396875 401874 408877
      412882 418886 422887 427886 430881 432876
 0.01 419159 420157 418158 416158 416160 416161 417161 418161
      419159 419159
 0.01 412150 410150 408151 406151 404151 402153 401153 400155
      400157 400158 401160 402160 403161 405161 406158 406156
      408154 410152 412150 412150
 0.01 388940 388930 387925 386922 382923 379930 374935 368938
      359945 350956 348957 346960 344967 345969 347968 350963
      352960 356960 363961 365963 367962 371961 373959 383952
      386945 388940
 0.01 365869 365867 366865 364863 362865 360865 359865 357868
      357870 356872 356874 356877 356879 358880 359880 361878
      362876 363875 364874 364872 364871 365869
 0.01 340008 341999 335999 326006 322005 323000 323991 323988
      321985 319984 315984 303986 299987 304992 306992 307996
      305003 302011 302014 298012 288007 275003 261002 256004
      252008 252011 255013 260015 264016 266019 268021 268025
      270031 274035 278039 280041 284042 286043 290044 295042
      302042 309041 315039 320036 328027 335018 340008
 0.01 325107 321103 318101 317098 320093 315092 310087 309084
      309080 309070 308066 302067 299061 296056 290053 286052
      282053 279052 269046 262045 257047 246053 241050 233051
      232052 230056 230060 232063 236067 241070 245074 248080
      252083 257086 265095 268101 271106 276109 284110 288106
      296107 302110 307114 311115 315111 317108 320107 325107
 0.01 285812 283808 284804 282800 283796 282791 276791 266792
      257797 253798 250802 250806 253810 258814 266813 271820
      276821 280819 283817 285812
 0.25 549993 550985 548976 544968 531957 518946 505934 491924
      484919 480918 474917 465920 456924 448927 445930 442935
      436955 436958 437961 442961 445962 442966 436972 433976
      433981 440985 446992 449995 451999 452005 457006 473001
      477002 480005 487011 501022 508027 513028 516026 525024
      528026 531032 536040 538043 543045 545041 547033 546020
      546011 547005 549993
 0.25 491248 490242 488242 486240 484238 482235 482231 484227
      489226 492224 493218 491211 486206 480205 474205 469206
      461204 456201 457194 464181 464169 470171 475169 479170
      485175 490180 493179 494176 496169 493163 486152 484146
      484139 482137 478134 474132 472133 472137 473140 480143
      482148 476150 466142 461141 456144 452148 447150 443149
      440148 438153 440160 446164 448171 450178 447184 445187
      445192 448197 452202 449209 444213 433217 428218 424223
      426230 426233 423234 417233 410234 405238 405243 407245
      418252 423253 430253 436252 443254 449257 453260 460272
      463277 469278 471277 473272 473262 474253 475250 479249
      483249 486246 491248
 0.25 493705 493701 491701 488704 485708 482710 481713 479717
      477722 478727 481727 483725 485722 488718 490713 492709
      493705
 0.25 457650 456645 453643 445644 441645 436648 430652 424657
      417657 401658 384663 377666 368671 358680 352693 345707
      344716 345723 349731 353737 358742 363746 370748 379747
      387745 397743 403740 410736 421725 429714 434708 437701
      444687 449672 457650
 0.25 461111 461106 458101 453095 448094 445095 436096 429091
      427090 425091 427095 431098 433102 430106 426108 428109
      433110 438113 448116 453115 456113 461111
 0.25 458079 457074 453072 450068 449063 445061 442064 439067
      436069 436072 438073 441075 444078 448080 453082 456080
      458079
 0.25 418858 417852 415848 412845 407843 402845 399848 397853
      397858 401859 406858 410859 414861 417860 418858
 0.25 402836 401835 401834 400833 398833 396833 394833 392833
      391834 389835 389838 391840 392840 393840 395841 396840
      398840 400839 402837 402836
 0.25 390861 389856 387854 385854 381853 378855 378859 379864
      378866 379870 382868 384867 385865 388863 390861
 0.25 288091 283083 276076 272073 269068 261064 251060 247061
      244061 244063 249071 257077 264084 271091 274094 278097
      283097 287093 288091
 0.50 544995 545988 544980 543976 540972 535968 526964 523963
      520959 515953 512951 508948 504940 498936 490934 476939
      471933 465932 456934 452936 449938 447942 446949 449950
      453949 458948 462949 462952 459957 455964 450970 447973
      445978 447983 450986 457991 458993 457997 458000 461999
      465999 469997 471994 475992 483996 491998 497998 505003
      511007 520009 527013 531021 535030 537034 538035 541032
      543027 542023 540011 540006 541002 544995
 0.50 484217 484213 483211 478209 469211 458212 449214 440217
      433220 428222 427226 429228 432233 428238 424238 418236
      413236 411238 412241 421247 427248 432247 442247 446248
      451250 460257 464259 466255 469248 471244 475242 478242
      480239 477233 473231 470230 469227 472221 479219 484217
 0.50 476162 475159 472156 470154 468152 466150 462150 461153
      462156 464159 466161 468162 471164 474164 476162
 0.50 443662 442659 440661 437663 436666 436669 435673 435676
      434680 434684 436686 439685 440683 441680 442677 443674
      442669 442664 443662
 0.50 452107 452105 451102 450100 450099 448099 447099 446100
      444101 444103 442104 441106 441108 441110 442111 443112
      445113 447113 449112 450109 451108 452107
 0.50 449078 450075 450074 448073 448072 446071 445070 444070
      443072 445074 445075 446076 448077 449078 449078
 0.50 430694 430690 428689 425688 424686 419676 415672 412670
      401673 397673 391675 387675 381674 375674 370677 366680
      363685 359695 354703 350713 351721 353728 359736 367741
      377742 383741 389740 399736 405734 409731 416724 421713
      426705 430694
 0.50 281088 280086 278084 276081 274080 272078 270077 267076
      266078 268081 270083 271085 273087 275089 277090 280090
      281088
 0.50 262070 261068 260067 258067 256066 255066 254065 253065
      251064 249064 249065 250067 251068 251069 253070 254071
      256071 258071 260071 262070 262070
 1.00 538984 536978 533974 523973 512973 508974 505978 497983
      494988 493990 495991 501991 505989 511989 515991 523997
      528999 532996 537985 538984
 1.00 489975 487969 484965 479966 476967 471968 466969 462971
      461976 464981 467981 471982 475981 480980 484979 487977
      489975
 1.00 467220 466217 463215 458216 453218 447219 442220 438222
      436225 438228 445228 451228 456227 460225 465221 467220
 1.00 462238 462236 462235 460233 459232 457232 455232 454233
      453233 452233 450234 448234 446236 446238 447239 449240
      451241 452241 454242 456242 456241 457241 459240 460240
      461239 462238
 1.00 420704 420698 420691 418686 415682 409680 402680 393683
      385682 378682 374682 371685 367692 364700 361708 361718
      361724 362728 365731 368733 376735 385735 390734 394732
      402728 409724 415718 418711 420704
 1.50 454223 454221 454220 453220 452220 450221 448221 447221
      446221 445221 443222 442222 442225 444225 446225 448226
      449226 451225 452225 453224 454223
 1.50 418702 417692 414687 408684 402685 395687 389687 375689
      371693 368700 367716 367724 370729 376732 383732 391731
      396728 402724 409721 413716 416710 418702
 2.00 416700 415694 411689 405689 398689 386690 379692 374695
      371700 371709 370723 373727 379730 384731 391729 401722
      406719 409718 412716 414710 416703 416700
 3.00 409707 407700 405696 397693 390693 385694 381696 378698
      375701 375712 374719 375721 382727 386727 391726 397721
      404715 409707
 4.00 403704 402700 400699 394699 389696 382699 379704 377706
      377710 377717 380720 385724 391723 395720 398715 401710
      403704
 5.00 398707 397705 395704 392702 389700 385701 383706 381709
      380714 381718 385721 388721 392719 395716 397712 398707
 6.00 394713 393708 392706 390704 386703 385707 383710 382713
      382715 384717 386719 388719 390718 392715 394713
 7.00 391713 391711 391709 390709 388707 387710 387711 387712
      387713 388714 389715 391714 391713

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