Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 181913
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
312 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 19/0000 UTC THRU JUL 20/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION...

VERY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL SUPPORT AN ACTIVE PERIOD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ...INTERIOR SOUTHERN CA INTO SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL UT AND WESTERN CO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.  VERY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
ALONG THE LOWER CO BASIN WHERE PW ANOMALIES ARE CURRENTLY 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH A SERIES OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO CENTER MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM FROM CENTRAL INTO
NORTHWESTERN AZ.  HOWEVER...WPC CONTINUED TO EXTEND HEAVIER
AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER INTO INTERIOR SOUTHERN CA.  AS NOTED
PREVIOUSLY...MODELS TYPICALLY UNDER-FORECAST CONVECTION ACROSS
THIS REGION.

ON WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND...DRAWING DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...EXPECT
COVERAGE TO INCREASE FURTHER TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL UT AND WESTERN CO.

WPC QPF REFLECT A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG WITH A
HI-RES ENSEMBLE (THE HREF).


...NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

ONGOING RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON TUE...WITH THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE
WEST FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS ON WED AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS ONCE AGAIN INTERACT WITH A DEEPENING
MOISTURE POOL.  THE GFS SHOWS PWS INCREASING TO 1.75-2 INCHES AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW STRENGTHENS ALONG A LINGERING BOUNDARY
EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

HERE ALSO THE WPC QPF LARGELY REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ALONG WITH A HI-RES ENSEMBLE.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

PEREIRA

24HR QP VT 20/00Z
 0.01 518994 518986 515983 507985 502987 497985 491980 489977
      487969 485956 484939 481929 479925 476922 469919 464924
      462927 461934 460942 458944 455943 447938 446933 447927
      448920 449916 450909 452903 458895 464888 469880 473872
      477861 480851 482845 483837 484827 486816 487811 487805
      487801 487792 486787 487783 489779 493769 498758 501749
      504744 505738 507725 505708 503704 502697 495670 494663
      492658 488656 486661 481680 473696 464716 462718 449744
      441769 435788 429802 424812 421820 417824 413828 403843
      398851 397855 397861 395866 392869 389871 384872 376877
      374879 379880 394888 396889 397892 395897 396904 399906
      404907 409909 409917 408922 406927 403931 398938 395944
      391947 387954 383961 379971 376979 377984 380986 389982
      397977 399976 401977 402982 402996 401999 400998 397995
      393992 390992 390996 393004 396016 398028 399033 402036
      406039 411041 414038 416033 421011 424002 428994 433985
      438974 440971 442970 443974 444978 442983 440998 437000
      434011 428024 424037 426039 427042 426045 419049 413050
      408047 398045 392044 388046 381048 371047 360047 357052
      354057 342066 325074 321076 319077 316077 313077 310075
      308070 303063 308057 307053 304053 300052 295051 292047
      287043 282039 276045 272047 269045 260040 253034 248034
      244036 242044 236044 232046 227055 237069 243076 246079
      250083 255088 261094 269097 273100 277104 281105 286107
      293111 303114 310120 314122 319124 324126 327129 331137
      336146 334151 335156 333160 328161 320162 321166 324168
      336171 340175 342179 344182 347182 347176 350172 357168
      365164 369163 371159 374157 379155
 0.01 379155 384155 388151 391147 393140 395134 398129 404123
      419108 423104 428101 436098 438098 440093 440088 434087
      432087 430085 426080 424076 419066 416059 417056 420055
      425058 431059 438069 440072 443072 445070 447068 444062
      441057 441052 440050 437046 432044 430042 431040 435035
      439025 442030 444036 447041 450044 454047 458052 463061
      464070 465075 469080 468088 466094 468099 469108 468116
      468123 469128 471129 474125 476119 477102 479093 481086
      482079 485073 492046 493038 493034 495031 501024 508014
      511009 513004 516999 518994
 0.01 456808 456804 453804 450807 444813 440822 436830 432840
      429850 428857 432853 435849 440843 445836 450828 453818
      456808
 0.01 438726 436724 433722 427720 425717 426714 427710 425707
      423709 418715 415721 412725 410728 407728 396737 387747
      373772 374783 363792 359794 357796 356802 350815 343820
      336821 331826 328833 329840 333839 336842 340847 342849
      343847 346844 353844 351849 350852 347858 345868 344871
      345875 345879 347882 350879 354872 358865 364865 368865
      369863 369860 367857 367849 371842 376838 379837 377835
      374835 371835 370833 376828 380824 381823 376823 365829
      360836 359833 360828 365823 367816 368811 369808 373802
      384795 388788 392788 396789 398791 402804 407808 414813
      420809 424796 428780 428768 427758 424750 424742 427736
      433731 438726
 0.01 385715 384707 381702 375702 372706 366712 362716 358719
      340728 331733 325740 319750 317753 311755 294766 285770
      277776 261785 252791 248793 245797 241805 239810 237815
      235825 235831 236837 238842 240843 246837 250833 255831
      260839 274853 277855 282856 287858 289858 290862 286870
      283878 277886 274890 271892 267896 267903 266908 266914
      270936 270943 268948 266954 266956 263957 258959 254962
      251965 249969 248974 250978 254978 259976 265975 269978
      264986 265989 268991 270991 272986 297956 304963 308967
      310971 313975 316974 316964 311953 307943 311939 316937
      321931 321926 319918 317908 315903 314897 314884 316858
      315843 318840 320834 322824 327814 337799 338793 339787
      340782 343778 355763 362755 367747 373740 378732 382723
      385715
 0.01 326797 320800 314802 309801 305801 300801 298805 297808
      298809 302811 306812 311812 315810 318807 322804 326797
 0.01 299847 299844 299842 298840 297838 296840 296843 296845
      297847 298848 299847
 0.01 295031 297027 296024 294023 290021 287021 283020 279020
      276021 276024 277026 279028 281029 283031 286032 288033
      292034 294033 295031
 0.01 257996 257992 255990 253988 251987 250989 248991 246994
      245996 245000 246002 249003 252002 254000 256998 257996
 0.25 487737 486729 483728 479731 476736 474742 474748 475760
      469769 468775 467782 467789 471793 477790 479785 481771
      480762 482758 486748 487737
 0.25 494000 493997 490995 489993 487992 484990 480992 480994
      479999 479004 480008 481011 483012 486012 488010 489007
      490005 492002 494000
 0.25 478062 480051 479041 477035 476026 467001 465986 462969
      457957 450948 441940 438934 439924 440917 442910 446897
      452886 456882 460878 465874 468869 471855 473847 472842
      471839 468838 466839 462842 448860 442873 440878 438886
      436889 434890 428890 425887 421886 418888 414893 414896
      414901 418915 420922 426923 423933 420941 419948 421955
      425958 429959 432957 436953 440956 443961 448974 449982
      449986 446987 444994 443004 442010 444016 448021 451021
      454015 457015 458016 461024 462031 468041 469049 471057
      474062 477063 478062
 0.25 419003 419000 417999 413003 411005 408008 404010 402014
      404018 406021 408026 410029 412026 414021 416015 417010
      418005 419003
 0.25 408109 410106 410104 407105 405106 404107 404109 405110
      407110 408109
 0.25 402072 401071 399070 398070 397071 397072 398074 399074
      400074 401073 402072
 0.25 396096 396095 394095 393096 392098 392099 394100 395099
      395098 396096
 0.25 390121 390116 387113 380112 374119 367117 358113 356109
      353107 348101 343096 339094 337096 337099 341106 343115
      341126 351139 352143 351148 349152 352155 357156 359154
      362145 369142 374135 380131 387127 390121
 0.25 394066 396060 396057 393057 390059 387063 385066 382068
      379071 377076 377081 381080 383076 386075 388075 390072
      393068 394066
 0.25 372731 371725 366725 355730 348736 342742 338745 332748
      328757 326761 322765 316770 308777 300782 281790 275791
      269793 261798 252803 250805 251808 255811 263815 270820
      272823 269826 268828 269830 275832 279834 284835 287834
      288832 285828 281826 279826 280824 285823 289823 294826
      300825 303824 304822 301819 297815 293814 289812 286809
      283804 283802 285802 289798 291794 313792 321789 326788
      329784 338766 344760 348756 353753 357752 361747 366741
      370736 372731
 0.25 320108 319102 316099 315093 313090 305084 298078 288075
      285074 285072 287069 289067 288063 286060 283057 278057
      275060 270062 267063 262061 254056 248055 247060 247066
      249071 254077 260085 267091 270093 275096 279097 283095
      288094 292097 297103 301107 305109 310111 317110 320108
 0.25 309877 308871 306863 304861 302863 298868 292878 286887
      282891 279896 279904 281911 283914 285915 288911 292916
      295914 300916 303912 305905 305897 308884 309877
 0.50 466016 466015 465016 466017 466016
 0.50 467853 465850 463851 458857 453862 448867 444875 443885
      444887 447885 452880 458876 461874 464871 466863 467853
 0.50 463001 462986 460973 456962 450953 443945 440945 440949
      445959 450969 452975 453983 453999 455005 457007 460007
      463003 463001
 0.50 450017 450015 450012 450010 451007 451005 450003 450001
      448000 446000 445002 445005 445007 445010 445012 446014
      446015 447017 447018 449019 450017
 0.50 434942 433935 433928 433923 431922 430926 428930 426935
      424938 422942 422949 424953 427954 431952 433947 434942
 0.50 430895 429895 427895 427897 427898 428897 429897 430895
 0.50 425905 425902 424900 424899 422899 421900 420901 420902
      420905 422907 424907 425905
 0.50 387125 387123 387120 386119 386118 385117 383116 381117
      380119 379120 379121 378123 379124 380125 382126 384127
      386126 387125
 0.50 369135 370126 366122 361119 356116 353112 348108 346112
      346116 347121 345125 346127 352130 355135 361138 365139
      367137 369135
 0.50 363740 363736 361734 356736 353738 349741 346744 343746
      340751 341753 344753 347750 350748 356746 359744 362741
      363740
 0.50 307100 306098 304095 303093 301091 299088 298088 295090
      296093 298095 300097 302099 305102 307100
 0.50 300891 302886 301882 299879 297880 295883 293885 292887
      291890 290893 290897 293898 295896 296895 298893 300891
 0.50 288818 284813 281807 278804 274803 268801 261803 254807
      255809 258810 264813 270818 276820 285820 288818
 0.50 285798 285796 284794 282793 280793 279793 277794 275795
      275797 277798 279798 280798 281798 283798 285798 285798
 1.00 367131 367130 367128 366127 364128 363130 363132 363133
      365135 367133 367131
 1.00 277811 276809 275809 273809 271809 269810 269812 271814
      272816 273816 275816 275815 275813 277812 277811

$$





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