Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 190652
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 19/1200 UTC THRU OCT 20/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO COASTAL NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN HANDLING OF THE NEXT NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROF
MOVING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST DAY 1.  TWO AREAS OF
HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS TROF DAY 1.  A LEAD
AREA WILL HELP PUSH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY TOWARD
THE COAST WHILE BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED WITH TIME.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROF OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD.  THERE IS ONLY SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE EASTWARD PUSH OF PRECIPITATION---WITH THE GFS AND HI RES ARW
SLIGHTLY FASTER.  OTHERWISE---MODELS AGREE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA GIVEN THE INITIAL AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS SHEAR
AND DO NOT MAKE MUCH INLAND PROGRESS.  MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS
POSSIBLE FROM THE OLYMPIC RANGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WA AND OREGON
COAST RANGES.  LIGHTER TOTALS EXPECTED SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA AND EASTWARD TO THE EAST OF THE COAST RANGES.

SOUTHWEST U.S.

A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN BAJA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD DAY 1 ACROSS
NORTHWEST MEXICO.  DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EASTERN AZ---ACROSS MOST OF
NM---FAR SOUTHWEST TX INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CO.  THERE IS A WIDE
RANGE OF QPF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ACROSS THESE
AREAS DAY 1---LEADING DAY 1 QPF TO LEAN TOWARD THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO
BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEAN TO MITIGATE THESE DIFFERENCES.

FAR SOUTH TX---LOWER TO MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO---INTO FAR SOUTH TX AND NORTHWESTWARD UP THE LOWER TO MID
RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE AXIS OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE TEXAS
BORDER ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO---WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TOTALS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.

OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST

A STRONG VORT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
SUNDAY---INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY PUSHING OFFSHORE.  AT THE MOMENT---THE TRACK OF
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST---BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

UPPER LAKES TOWARD THE OH VALLEY

UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE AMPLIFYING OVER
SASKATCHEWAN/MB/WESTERN ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES REGION
DAY 1.  ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE UPPER
LAKES REGION.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOTALS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
OH VALLEY LATE DAY 1.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 502624 503629 501633 492636 479639 465648 454656 438664
      430666 426667 424670 419672 417675 412682 409686 405694
      400700 397703 395702 389701 385708 380714 374719 369722
      362726 356731 349734 343737 339738 336737 334734 332729
      332719 337705 344692 352680 356674 360668 372660 384648
 0.01 556936 557926 557917 555912 553907 547901 540895 532877
      528872 525869 523865 518855 515851 512848 505844 501841
      498838 495836 492830 492824 491819 488811 482804 475799
      468795 460792 454793 451795 445801 438805 431809 428812
      423813 415818 411819 408824 401830 398832 395836 390844
      386852 380866 376877 374887 371898 370905 369909 366919
      364927 360947 359954 359960 359965 361967 363967 366965
      368961 373953 375945 375932 382916 387905 391896 400879
      402871 404867 404862 405856 406853 408852 411850 416849
      428848 433847 436844 440841 442840 445841 444846 444853
      444858 446862 449864 453865 455865 456867 455871 454877
      454881 459893 461896 465898 471898 475895 476891 479888
      482885 486886 483894 482897 485902 489909 495910 498912
      507916 520926 526931 532934 539939 545942 550942 553941
      556936
 0.01 522264 524259 523256 522249 518237 510219 507213 504209
      496202 488202 480205 471209 463212 455214 447218 442219
      438221 428222 424231 413230 392231 384234 376235 372238
      369243 369256 378259 387258 400261 404271 407275 411276
      417278 421278 447295 458296 468297 477297 485297 503293
      507292 511289 516283 519270 522264
 0.01 231006 234007 239008 248009 253010 256011 262015 263019
      259021 254024 249028 248036 252044 257049 261054 264060
      275067 280071 284076 287079 291080 294082 299084 304088
      308094 312099 315106 318112 322115 329113 333113 336115
      339118 341122 346127 351130 353130 356128 355115 352107
      351104 354100 356098 357093 358083 363077 367078 370080
      373085 377087 380084 382080 385074 385071 383067 379062
      377052 373047 368044 364044 362047 357053 351056 335052
      333038 328033 322035 318043 315045 311043 304038 299034
      297032 299029 305028 310026 314020 315016 314012 311005
      307998 302993 298988 293985 285974 283965 279959 277957
      274955 272958 272962 273970 272974 267973 262971 256968
      243962 237961 232962
 0.01 289808 285802 285796 284785 283780 281777 278774 276777
      273780 272783 272787 273797 272806 276811 281817 283817
      284813 287811 289808 289808
 0.25 487614 489620 488624 479631 468635 458641 453641 449640
      437641 431644 427647 418654 408658 403659 399657 395656
      396651 402643
 0.25 516272 519260 519253 518249 513235 505221 501215 496210
      489213 483216 481218 480222 478225 475225 469228 462229
      451232 425237 417235 410235 408237 406242 407246 410248
      421259 429261 435261 443260 448258 454258 460261 466265
      470268 471272 470277 470281 475286 488287 500287 507287
      511284 516272
 0.25 515890 515887 514887 513886 511887 513890 514890 515890
 0.25 490234 490232 490229 489226 487224 486224 484224 482224
      480226 481229 481231 481232 482234 483235 484237 486236
      487236 488236 489235 490234
 0.25 391667 391661 388660 385659 381661 375666 371670 363681
      355691 351697 348703 348711 349716 352717 359717 364713
      372704 379693 386681 389675 391667 391667
 0.25 339087 339083 337079 332075 325072 321071 317069 308060
      298050 293048 288048 280048 278051 277055 279061 291069
      306074 310076 313078 317084 320086 325086 331090 337090
      339087
 0.25 288016 284010 281005 273995 268991 264988 253982 246979
      241976 238975 234975 231979 231989 233994 238998 246999
      254000 260002 265005 269009 279018 285018 288016
 0.50 481616 480618 480619 479622 478624 476625 475627 473628
      472628 470628 468628 467628 465629 463630 462630 460630
      458630 457630 456629 455628 454627 454626
 0.50 430634 429636 428637 426639 425640 423642 421643 420643
      418643 417643 417640 417639 417638
 0.50 515269 517263 517256 515248 510234 502220 498215 495215
      492217 492224 492228 492234 490239 485239 482237 481234
      478230 476230 470233 465235 457233 444235 432239 424239
      419237 414238 415244 418247 422248 428249 439246 464246
      467247 469251 475255 480256 482259 483263 485272 489278
      495282 502285 508283 510278 515269
 0.50 297063 297061 297060 296059 296057 295056 294056 292055
      290056 289056 290057 291058 292058 294060 295061 297063
      297063
 1.00 513258 514253 513248 509241 506234 502227 500223 498221
      495221 494225 495233 499241 503247 507255 511261 513258
 1.00 506279 505272 504265 498255 493246 490242 487241 485243
      482243 480238 479235 476233 472235 472241 474245 484250
      489261 493272 496276 501279 506279
 1.50 509249 508244 507241 506238 504235 503233 501230 499227
      497226 497229 498232 498234 499237 501241 503244 505246
      506248 509249
 1.50 504273 502267 500264 498260 496254 494251 491247 489249
      489255 491260 492264 495268 497272 502275 504273
 1.50 479241 479238 479237 478236 477235 476234 475235 474236
      473237 474238 474239 475240 476241 478242 479241
 2.00 495257 493254 493253 493256 493257 495257 495257

$$




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