Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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153
FXUS04 KWBC 072043
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

OUTER BANKS OF NC---COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND

THE DEEPENING SURFACE TO MID LEVEL SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY OFF THE NC COAST AND WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE 1200 UTC RUNS OF THE NAM---ECMWF AND GFS HAVE ALL TRENDED
FARTHER WESTWARD WITH THE WESTERN END OF THE QPF AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND
FROM ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NC---ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST---LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  THE NAM CONTINUES
TO BE THE HEAVIEST ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND.  YESTERDAY`S 1200 UTC RUNS ALSO SHOWED THE NAM BEING THE
WESTERN OUTLIER WITH QPF OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SO FAR THROUGH
THIS MORNING THE NAM DID VERIFY BETTER.  THE HI RES ARW AND NMMB
TRENDED IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE NAM---EC AND GFS AND WERE
NOT FAVORED TODAY.  GIVEN THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE EC...NAM AND
GFS...THE DAY 1 QPF ALSO FOLLOWED IT.  THE OLDER 0000 UTC VERSIONS
OF THE HI RES ARW...AND NMMB TO A LESSER EXTENT...FIT IN BETTER
WITH THE HEAVIER 1200 UTC VERSIONS OF THE NAM...EC AND GFS.  DAY 1
QPF RESEMBLED THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND NAM THE MOST...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY SNOWS FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND....WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE PRECIP AND
CORRESPONDING SNOW TOTALS LIKELY WESTWARD TOWARD NYC AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE NJ COAST.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER INFORMATION.

UPPER MS VALLEY---GREAT LAKES---OH VALLEY---TN VALLEY---CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
ELONGATED AND INCREASINGLY BROADENING UPPER TROF STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES---SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH---TN VALLEYS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTIONS AMONG THE
MODELS ARE ALSO SIMILAR WITH ONE MAX IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
LAKES---WHILE A SECOND MAX IS FORECAST ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING EASTWARD THE OH VALLEY---EASTERN LAKES INTO THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  AREAL AVERAGE .10-25"+ AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN EACH AXIS.  INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT TO THE SNOWFALL
FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE U.P.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
NEAR THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD INTO THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

DAYS 2/3...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATL...

AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EAST ON MON AND
PERSIST THROUGH WED. ON MON... A LARGE CLOSED MID TO UPPER LOW
WILL BE CENTERED NEAR LAKE MI... A FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS... WHILE UPPER JET DYNAMICS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTO THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATL REGION. THEN ON TUES... THE UPPER DYNAMICS REACH THE
MID-ATL COAST TO INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... WHICH WILL
PROCEED AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER... A POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS/TROWAL COULD SET UP FROM THIS INTENSIFYING LOW BACK TO THE
SURFACE RESEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
COULD ALLOW A SPIKE OF MOISTURE TO FOCUS ALONG THIS STRONG
CONVERGENCE AXIS FOR HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS AND SNOW. THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SHOW MODEST SPREAD ON THIS
SYSTEM AND RESULTANT QPF... MEANING THE AXIS OF QPF AND POSSIBLE
AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN. WPC FOLLOWED THE GFS AS A CASE
FOR THE FCST WHICH SETS THIS AXIS FROM SRN NJ/NRN DE THROUGH NRN
MD/SRN PA. THEN ON WED...DEEP COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONSUME THE
EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS INTO THE
APPALACHIANS... WHILE THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS WHILE
LIFTING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND NY STATE.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/MUSHER


24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 468621 469631 467642 464656 457686 451709 446724 444730
      442735 437739 432742 431742 425741 419738 412741 406744
      401748 396752 386759 379760 374764 373766 375769 381768
      394766 409768 421770 445776 449777 455776 460776 464776
      466774 469771 477769 482766 486765 489769 490772 495779
      502791 505800 507807 508816 511824 518853 519892 505962
      497967 491972 485972 462972 444971 440971 438969 431968
      424968 419965 415960 410956 404949 393943 387940 383937
      377929 372925 367919 365917 367914 373911 378911 380905
      377902 373899 372895 370893 364882 358885 352886 348884
      345881 341871 334869 328868 325870 320873 316873 313871
      310867 310863 311861 313856 317850 319845 321842 321837
      322823 320821 317822 315826 308835 305836 302836 293835
      294830 298823 304814 308810 314806 318803 321799 326795
      329790 332785 334780 321779 314779 310777 307774 302761
      302753 304746 308734 309732 313731 318727 326718 332709
      332705 328703 325702 324698 327692 329688 333684
 0.01 427635 426637 424638 423640 421641 419640 419639 417639
      416638
 0.01 536207 537198 536193 534184 532178 530175 527169 525171
      516168 510167 507168 505168 505172 506177 511183 516186
      518189 524195 527200 529205 531208 534209 536207
 0.01 518276 519269 519265 518257 513245 511238 508232 504228
      499226 495220 492214 488209 485206 482207 480210 485213
      487219 493220 497227 500233 501240 502246 506261 512271
      513275 511277 507275 506273 502262 499255 494250 488248
      485251 489264 490272 493277 497283 501287 508289 511287
      516281 518276
 0.25 474810 473805 470801 464798 458797 451796 431798 415801
      404803 395803 387802 383807 375812 370812 367814 363820
      358825 354833 352835 351840 353842 356841 360836 362831
      365827 367820 368822 372824 368831 368834 369838 373838
      381835 386834 384837 381839 381842 384840 392836 398833
      405830 413826 421824 430822 437821 454823 461826 467824
      472821 473818 474810
 0.25 475892 476882 475877 473875 469875 466882 465889 464898
      462905 464913 467914 469912 472907 474900 475892
 0.25 454658 454653 453648 450644 447642 441645 434650 430653
      425654 418655 414654 406648 399647 390649 379653 370658
      356669 348677 341684 339688 339693 343699 344705 343710
      339720 335727 332735 323754 322766 322770 324772 330772
      336771 346769 356766 364762 374757 383752 398742 415730
      419728 422724 427718 439699 443691 446683 454658
 0.25 380843 377842 375844 374844 372844 370844 368846 367848
      366851 368853 371854 372852 375851 376848 378846 380843
 0.50 461815 461812 461811 460810 459809 457810 456810 456811
      454813 455816 455818 456819 458819 459818 460817 461815
      461815
 0.50 438678 437669 435665 431664 427664 420664 414662 401652
      398651 393651 385653 375657 369662 357672 351679 346685
      345690 346693 349700 349710 346719 344728 341734 337742
      332750 329757 329761 330765 335766 338766 347765 362759
      379750 391741 398736 405731 411726 416722 422715 427707
      434693 437685 438678
 0.50 419816 418813 414813 411814 407814 404814 400815 397816
      393817 395819 399819 401820 404821 408820 411820 414819
      417818 419816
 1.00 421697 419688 415681 408672 404666 400662 395660 390658
      383659 377662 368669 362674 358679 355684 353690 355696
      357704 357711 356717 351730 346740 341746 339751 343756
      349755 366751 371748 375745 386737 394729 412712 420704
      421697
 1.50 412697 411690 408684 401678 398674 394670 386667 380667
      376670 370677 366682 365687 366701 364713 360722 355732
      349740 346744 344749 345752 347752 351750 364747 371742
      376737 379733 384725 387721 391717 400712 407705 411701
      412697
 2.00 399695 398691 395688 391681 388677 384677 379682 376685
      373690 371697 367714 363723 360729 355737 351742 349744
      350746 355744 364743 371738 375732 383717 387710 393704
      398699 399695
 3.00 380702 380700 378699 378700 377702 377703 376705 376706
      375708 374710 374713 375713 375712 376710 378708 378707
      379705 380702

24HR QP VT 10/00Z
 0.01 453626 452631 455634 459634 461636 470648 472652 474663
      477671 480671 484671 485674 483677 487681 485689 483691
      482697 479702 474716 470724 467732 463740 462743 463745
      467762 472779 477797 477802 479805 480817 481836 484854
      488875 488881 487885 485892 484897 485901 485908 481914
      477918 470920 464920 462918 459918 455920 452918 448918
      444920 442922 433916 431914 428912 426914 424915 423917
      424920 421924 417924 415922 413921 412917 410915 407912
      403910 399904 381891 377886 375882 371883 367887 364890
      366894 367896 364898 362901 360899 351888 349884 345878
      341871 341869 337867 329859 334846 333837 336833 339835
      340838 343839 346836 349833 351830 356825 363814 369804
      371805 374803 380800 379795 377793 375792 374788 370780
      364779 360776 353775 347775 341778 325801 319806 315812
      313816 309820 299815 293829 286840 282842 277840 269829
      276819 278812 278807 282791 283785 286779 290773 294768
      308750 325727 339707 346697 355686 363677 370668 380664
      387663 391671 392673 392676 392683 392688 394692 406691
      410692 414689 417683 420671 430644 434638 430634
 0.01 525039 522030 517023 511019 508016 505015 498011 493009
      490010 488012 486011 482009 477006 473009 472011 470009
      468006 464004 456001 453000 455005 452007 450007 448005
      445004 442001 437997 433990 429992 424992 423995 422998
      420998 415998 416001 420003 422006 427012 431019 433023
      437024 441024 444026 450032 458035 465040 470046 474047
      477050 479053 480058 483062 485063 494064 498062 501060
      503057 502053 498046 494040 491035 493030 497029 501031
      512040 521041 525039
 0.01 423822 422820 421819 420818 419818 418817 417818 418820
      420822 420823 422824 423822
 0.01 391929 389924 387922 384918 382915 378911 375909 373909
      373916 375918 378922 382925 385927 389929 391929
 0.01 372745 368742 363744 359746 356749 353753 350756 349760
      349764 351766 354763 357760 360756 362753 367750 370747
      372745
 0.01 273803 271799 268797 257798 251799 248801 244809 243819
      244825 247827 249824 251820 253817 253813 251808 253804
      261800 267805 271806 273803
 0.25 473680 470673 468668 463666 460661 457655 456650 455644
      451642 445644 441647 438652 436657 434671 433684 432692
      430698 430709 435723 444720 440724 437725 435727 437733
      436739 439746 440749 442747 446744 449738 449731 446725
      449719 453718 455714 457708 463699 470690 473680
 0.25 470853 468842 466836 465827 465822 464819 461812 457806
      451806 445808 440810 435808 432810 432815 436823 445830
      453830 451838 448845 448850 453855 460855 466858 470853
 0.25 417785 416778 414772 410768 409761 407751 407743 402729
      401718 394709 390710 389712 386717 385723 384731 384738
      385746 385753 384760 382766 381772 381781 382785 384788
      387792 387797 385803 382807 386817 389821 394823 399823
      402829 406832 409832 409829 409823 408819 406813 405809
      407803 412793 417785
 0.25 383692 383686 382681 380679 376679 371682 365687 348706
      332726 325737 319748 312760 307772 305780 305785 307788
      311789 316787 322782 326777 334767 350748 358737 364726
      367719 368714 370713 375708 379703 383692
 0.25 355839 353837 352839 351839 352841 354840 355839
 0.50 449652 449650 448648 447646 446646 445648 444649 444651
      444652 444654 443656 443657 443659 444660 445659 446658
      447657 448655 449652
 0.50 403776 402764 401753 398744 394738 390739 391745 390750
      391760 389768 388778 388781 390783 399781 403776
 0.50 393814 392812 391811 389812 389813 389815 391817 393814
 0.50 357725 356717 354712 348713 344716 338723 333732 327741
      325751 323757 323761 325764 328764 333761 340754 347747
      353739 355733 356728 357725

24HR QP VT 11/00Z
 0.01 519276 520269 519263 517254 513245 508238 487213 482214
      478213 474221 472224 474227 479221 483219 485220 492226
      486233 484234 482233 480230 476230 473231 469235 466236
      463240 459241 456241 453243 456246 454248 451247 445249
      435249 429251 427254 426257 428258 437259 452257 456258
      452262 447268 442275 440279 439285 440290 444292 451291
      457287 464285 471281 479280 482280 487281 493286 498290
      504293 510293 513290
 0.01 495020 495015 492010 488007 485007 480007 475006 475009
      478014 481017 484020 487022 491024 494021 495020
 0.01 479688 478683 477683 473680 468674 463673 459673 455670
      450667 448669 445671 445674 446676 449677 454686 455693
      452699 443708 439712 436714 434713 431713 429712 430710
      431704 434698 435691 433684 430682 426681 419682 411684
      406687 403692 399695 389698 378704 371706 365709 359711
      356713 349715 344719 337727 330734 328739 326744 322755
      318765 314778 312783 313790 316794 319796 326790 331786
      333782 339773 342768 347763 352755 357750 361750 363753
      375773 381780 383775 382770 383766 386773 390785 394787
      393790 389793 378800 369806 366809 363814 351832 346840
      349845 354847 356850 356854 359856 367856 371856 374857
      392867 399874 403876 407878 409875 412875 417878 422879
      425884 427886 430886 434885 440880 445878 451878 454878
      456881 454887 456895 457902 460907 463912 468913 470911
      473905 476899 478893 483884 482867 479852 475842 471836
      469829 467823 464817 459806 458800 457797 456793 453789
      450784 447778 448771 450765 449760 453749 473705 477697
      479688
 0.01 478024 475019 470014 463008 458005 451002 448002 448007
      452012 458016 463021 469024 473026 476027 478024
 0.01 464026 459023 454021 450017 446013 441010 436008 437014
      440019 444023 449027 454029 461029 464026
 0.25 511276 512271 512267 511262 509261 506259 503257 500257
      499260 500264 502267 503270 504273 505275 507277 508277
      511276
 0.25 502280 502277 500274 499271 497268 495265 494264 492265
      490265 490268 492271 494273 495276 498279 499280 502280
 0.25 429867 428864 428863 427862 426862 424860 422859 421858
      420858 419858 418858 417860 418863 419865 421866 423867
      424867 426867 428867 429867
 0.25 410716 409713 407713 402713 398712 395715 394720 394727
      395733 398736 402734 404731 407727 408723 410718 410716
 0.25 397798 395797 393798 392800 390801 389801 390803 392802
      394801 395799 397798

$$





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