Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 220627
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
126 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 22/1200 UTC THRU DEC 23/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...

UPR RIDGE IS FCST TO BUILDING RAPIDLY ALONG THE PAC COAST THIS PD
WITH DOWNSTREAM NWLY FLOW PATRN GENLY FAVORING A WEAKENING PCPN
PATRN ACRS THE PAC NW INTO THE CNTL ROCKIES.   SOME MDT QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FCST ACRS THE WASATCH AND WRN CO WITH ENHANCED LIFT
WITH JET STREAK DROPPING SEWD ACRS THE AREA.  SEE QPFHSD FOR
FURTHER DETAILS ON WINTER WEATHER.


...CENTRAL UNITED STATES...

VERY COMPLICATED QPF FORECAST ACRS THIS AREA AS STG JET DIGGING
THRU THE WRN U.S. HELPS CARVE OUT DEEP TROF OVER THE CNTL U.S.
MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE EXPECTED
MID LEVEL CIRC OVER THE CNTL/NRN PLAINS REGION ON MON AS WELL AS
DIFFERENCES WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE MID/UPR
LEVEL CIRC THAT LEAD TO SOME FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN QPF PLACEMENT.
 THE 00Z NAM TRENDED WETTER AHEAD OF THE DVLPG SFC LOW OVER THE
MID MS VALLEY/MIDWEST REGION AND HAD SUPPORT FOR THE WETTER TREND
FROM THE CANADIAN GEM AND GFS...THOUGH THE GFS SEEMED A BIT OF A
DEEP AND FAST OUTLIER.  A QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z UKMET ALSO SEEMED
TO SUPPORT THE WETTER NAM SCENARIO ACRS THIS AREA AS MODEST WAA
PATRN DVLPS AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY SFC LOW THAT IS FCST TO TRACK
ACRS ERN KS TOWARD NW IL BY TUES MRNG.  AS A RESULT...WENT
REASONABLY CLOSE TO NAM/GEM/UKMET AMOUNTS.  THE RATHER LARGE CIRC
WILL RESULT IN A RATHER BROAD AREA OF LIGHT PCPN..MAINLY SNOW TO
THE WEST OF THE LOW ACRS THE NRN PLAINS WITH STG NLY FLOW FAVORING
LOCALIZED HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS ACRS THE NRN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE
BLACK HILLS.  SEE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON WINTER WEATHER.

...EAST COAST....

BACKING MID/UPR FLOW ACRS THE SE U.S..WILL SUPPORT BROADENING WAA
PATRN ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD..AND DVLPMENT OF A WEAK SFC LOW
THAT WILL RIDE NWD ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY OFF THE SE COAST SUPPORTING
AN INCREASE IN OVERRUNNING PC ACRS THE MID ATLC AND PARTS OF THE
NE.  HEAVIEST RAINS ARE FCST EARLY IN THE PD WITH CONFLUENCE OF
85H FLOW AND HI PWS..AOA.1.50 INCHES...ACRS NRN FL.  HOWEVER THIS
AREA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS UPR JET REDEVELOPS FARTHER WEST ACRS
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION MON NIGHT AND FORCES BETTER INFLOW BACK
TOWARD THE CNTL GULF COAST REGION.  PER PMDHMD...DIFFERENCES HERE
ARE RATHER SMALL WITH THE NAM SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH DVLPG
SFC LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST.  AS A RESULT...STAYED CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF GFS/EC AS A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND WITH SOME .25 TO .50 INCH
AMOUNTS FROM ERN NC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 514286 509293 503297 498296 494293 487286 469253 466249
      461247 451247 440246 433247 425247 419246 416246 407244
      406239 409234 417219 424216 431209 433206 433203 429200
      424199 420196 417186 413178 408171 402166 399162 397157
      397152 399149 402146 407144 412143 415141 419132 420129
      420125 416122 413123 409125 407127 405131 399141 394137
      391134 386133 380132 377132 374130 373125 374122 379114
      384108 390104 394102 398099 396095 391096 384099 381099
      376096 374092 371089 368082 366079 352078 351077 354073
      351070 354067 336061 332060 329055 325048 314034 309028
      303021 303016 305010 305996 306990 307986 315981 322978
      325976 328979 335983 339986 341990 348009 352018 355027
      357030 361033 362035 364033 364026 363023 364020 372025
      379031 384036 391043 399050 402051 406051 411045 412033
      413029 412026 411022 402005 397997 395992 392988 390986
      386987 382987 378988 374987 371983 366977 354961 347956
      336956 319952 312947 316941 326926 326922 323920 320919
      315918 311916 308914 303916 298923 287935 284938 279940
      270939 273917 278900 284881 286872 287868 283869 269880
      263886 258887 253889 241877 236872 234868 235864 238860
      241857 247852 257841 270829 275822 278815 287798 290788
      289775 294754 296745 296741 299738 311727 324694 330688
      336687 339689 347709 354708 358709 366710 371711 376710
      383703 418689 425696 427692 429690 432688
 0.01 432688 437685 440680 444674 448673 448678 448683 449692
      449700 448702 445703 444711 441715 442736 440753 438758
      436761 432762 428765 425770 418781 393790 384799 379801
      376803 378806 389810 393811 395809 401804 411809 422813
      427816 430820 435825 439829 452833 457835 461839 466843
      469847 478839 479837 482837 486839 494848 498855 500863
      501870 506875 509874 511877 511887 510895 510905 507922
      506930 506942 506951 504959 501976 499983 498986 498991
      507998 515006 519020 522028 523035 526044 528047 528052
      527062 525069 524078 518078 515079 511079 504078 498077
      497075 494074 488074 483075 477072 473072 470073 464072
      460072 459076 456084 454086 452085 443078 440077 436078
      430075 424072 420071 418073 409079 406084 412089 418099
      422100 425098 428094 426089 430092 432093 435092 440091
      446091 452093 457098 459100 462099 466102 470105 469113
      465116 465121 469122 474125 479129 483133 484136 484141
      482150 484156 482162 477165 476167 472167 467167 464163
      460162 458164 457169 458172 461176 457180 450191 447197
      445200 446204 443209 444212 448212 458212 468206 477201
      483200 490202 496207 498214 497219 500219 502217 504219
      506225 509230 515242 519251 521255 524258
 0.01 542198 540197 539194 536191 535190 531189 528188 526190
      525192 524195 524200 523203 524208 526209 527212 530216
      532216 535217 536218
 0.01 524182 522173 519172 516169 513165 503163 500162 495164
      495171 495175 497185 498190 500191 504187 509188 514184
      517180 519180 524182
 0.01 495236 495232 495226 497222 497219 495219 488219 481219
      474220 467220 464222 467226 471228 477224 482224 488231
      493236 495236
 0.01 456229 455226 453226 452227 451230 452232 454231 454230
      456229
 0.01 447177 440164 436159 432154 431151 432148 434138 437133
      442129 444125 443120 438115 434116 433119 430126 426133
      423141 423151 425158 433169 434172 434177 433188 435191
      437186 441181 447177
 0.01 369077 369075 369074 368072 367071 365071 364071 363072
      363073 364074 365076 365077 367078 368079 369077
 0.25 514274 516267 516260 511252 507243 505242 504245 504249
      504255 501256 497255 494252 490254 489260 490271 493280
      498287 503290 507287 511281 514274
 0.25 442225 442222 442220 442219 440219 438220 437221 436221
      434221 433222 432222 431224 432226 433227 435228 437228
      439227 440227 441226 442225
 0.25 453078 451076 451075 450073 449073 448072 446071 445071
      444072 445073 445075 446075 448077 449079 451080 451081
      452080 453079 453078
 0.25 454042 454035 454032 454025 452022 449023 445024 444024
      441028 438033 437038 439043 441045 446048 451046 453044
      454042
 0.25 451010 452005 451002 449000 446998 445996 443998 441002
      440004 439007 438012 439016 440019 442020 444019 446016
      448014 449012 451010
 0.25 451884 452877 450868 446859 440849 434842 428836 420831
      416829 411830 401834 382843 374847 367854 360860 357865
      357870 359871 362871 363873 356879 350885 344893 338899
      336901 336905 340907 349903 357898 361899 365902 366907
      369911 375920 380920 383925 384931 384937 383945 384950
      388960 391965 394968 414973 419974 423972 427970 433970
      436971 438966 440960 438955 437949 438941 439936 438929
      438921 439917 445908 449895 451884
 0.25 424708 424704 421703 415703 409706 405710 402714 401718
      399727 392736 388742 385743 382742 377737 372734 360728
      355723 350720 346719 340715 336710 333708 331712 328719
      325726 318736 311747 305759 300771 297788 293801 289814
      283825 276838 274845 274851 277854 279855 286853 293850
      298846 307837 331789 334783 339778 343774 346767 348763
      350761 355758 357760 359764 358768 355773 355780 358787
      364787 372785 377782 382777 386771 389764 393759 400757
      405753 410747 414742 417736 420729 422722 424708
 0.25 414066 410065 405064 398060 393059 389059 380060 375062
      373064 372070 373075 374080 377084 382084 386081 395081
      399081 402078 408072 412070 414066
 0.25 409115 409110 408107 403108 399111 393112 388114 384118
      381124 384125 386125 391121 395119 402118 406116 409115
 0.25 337023 337019 336015 336012 335008 334006 333004 330001
      329001 327003 326008 327012 327014 329018 330021 332023
      334025 337023
 0.25 318877 319874 318871 314870 307874 303877 301881 297889
      293896 289904 288908 289912 292912 295909 300903 306896
      311889 316882 318877
 0.25 311856 309856 309857 311857 311856
 0.50 512266 513263 512262 511262 511263 512265 512266 512266
 0.50 506282 507277 506271 505269 503267 500264 497264 495265
      494269 495272 496275 498279 499281 502283 506282
 0.50 445041 446039 445036 444036 443036 441036 440038 440040
      441042 443043 445042 445041
 0.50 446877 445873 442869 436863 424852 420849 418849 417854
      414858 412863 409866 402870 395875 392878 391883 388894
      387898 383902 383906 387908 397908 406908 412916 417916
      422915 425913 429909 434902 439894 442886 446877
 0.50 413947 413938 410932 407926 403924 399922 395927 393933
      392940 393947 396953 402956 408954 412949 413947
 0.50 401074 399072 397072 396073 397075 399075 401074 401074
 0.50 394069 394066 393065 391065 389066 388068 388070 389072
      390072 392072 394071 394070 394069
 0.50 384759 384756 384754 382753 380753 378754 376755 376758
      376760 375761 374763 374765 376766 378766 379764 380764
      380762 381761 382760 384759 384759
 0.50 380078 380076 380074 380073 378073 377073 377076 377078
      377079 379079 380078
 0.50 373770 372766 370765 367764 363765 361767 360770 358772
      358776 361778 363780 366779 368777 370775 372772 373770
 0.50 353735 351727 347724 335719 323741 317751 310762 306773
      302785 298799 294811 291824 290831 291835 295835 300832
      304827 310816 315805 318800 321793 324781 327776 331770
      339762 347752 353735
 1.00 346739 345731 342728 338727 335730 331739 325748 319757
      315766 313771 313777 321774 327765 333757 339749 345741
      346739
 1.00 308795 308793 308791 307793 308795 308795

$$




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