Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 241754
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
149 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 25/0000 UTC THRU AUG 26/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SRN HI PLAINS NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...

MAIN QPF FOCUS ACRS THE LOWER 48 STATES THIS PD WILL BE ALONG
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL BNDRY WHICH WILL BE NEARLY COINCIDENT
WITH WEAK UPR SHEAR AXIS AND POOL OF DEEPER MSTR IN THE CONFLUENCE
AXIS ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM FROM BROAD
UPR TROF OVER THE PAC NW.  WITHIN THE BROADER CONFLUENCE
AXIS..THERE IS A MDTLY STG CONSENSUS ON A MORE FOCUSED HEAVY QPF
AREA DVLPG WED NIGHT ACRS PARTS OF ERN KS INTO NRN MO/WRN IL IN
RESPONSE TO S/WV LIFTING OUT ALONG SHEAR AXIS FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES.  THIS SHOULD HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE FRONTAL
BNDRY WHICH ALONG WITH PWS OF 1.75 TO 2+" AND FAVORABLE RT
ENTRANCE REGION JET SUPPORT SHOULD LEAD TO MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY
CONVECTIVE RAINS ACRS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT.  A COMBO OF THE
RECENT HRRR...AND 12Z HI RES CAM GUIDANCE SHOW A RATHER STG
CONSENSUS FOR THE HEAVY RAINS ACRS THIS REGION..WITH NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE FRONTAL BNDRY LIKELY SUPPORTING SOME
TRAINING ELEMENTS.

ACRS THE OH VALLEY...A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED REMNANT MCV WILL TRACK
EWD ACRS THE OH VALLEY WED NIGHT ENHANCING TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE
BNDRY WHERE MDTLY HI INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT EARLY IN THE PD. THE MCV ITSELF IS NOT PARTICULARLY WELL
HANDLED BY THE 12Z NAM/GFS BUT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHEAR ENEWD INTO BROAD RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST.  IN THE
MEANTIME...A BLEND OF WETTER HI RES CAM GUIDANCE WAS PRIMARILY
FOLLOWED FIRST HALF OF PD..AND TRENDED TOWARD BLEND OF CONTINUITY
AND IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR DAYTIME THU.

ACRS THE SRN HI PLAINS...MODELS MAINTAIN REASONABLY SIMILAR
DEPICTIONS OF THE SRN EXTENSION OF UPR SHEAR AXIS..PROGRESSING IT
SLOWLY EWD TOWARD WRN TX LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THUR BEFORE
STALLING IN RESPONSE TO SLOW RETROGRESSION OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS
ACRS THE SE U.S.  THE MOIST SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...WITH UVV ENHANCEMENTS IN RESPONSE TO THE SHEAR AXIS WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION ACRS THIS
REGION THOUGH  DETAILS WITH THIS EXPECTED CONVECTION REMAIN LOW.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES WILL REMAIN GIVEN
WEAK FLOW ALOFT.

ROCKIES...

UPR TROF AMPLIFYING SEWD SLIGHTLY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WILL
PROVIDE COOLING ALOFT..WHICH ALONG WITH EMBDD WEAKER IMPULSES WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION ACRS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES.
SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED AMOUNTS WILL BE PSBL ACRS SRN CO INTO NRN NM
WITH WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT ALONG WITH REMNANTS OF EJECTING SRN
STREAM UPR TROF MENTIONED ABOVE..EARLY IN THE PD.

LOWER MS VALLEY...CENTRAL GULF COAST...FLORIDA...

AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES MOVING WEST ALONG SRN PERIPHERY
OF SE UPR RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTL GULF COAST REGION BY THUR
LEADING TO AN EXPANSION OF MAINLY DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY.  THIS
SAME HIER PW AXIS ACRS PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTL FL WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASED THREAT OF CONVECTION THERE COMPARED TO THE NRN PART OF
THE STATE WHERE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NE WILL
TEND TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY THERE. IN MOST AREAS...A BLEND OF
CONTINUITY AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 26/00Z
 0.01 556078 555067 553058 548052 540051 537051 534053 528057
      520056 513058 509058 506060 502067 499069 498073 496084
      494111 490117 488121 485123 481130 485136 488144 492153
      494162 492171 495174 498175 505176 512173 515172 518175
      525191 527195 530198 532201 535200 537197 538193 539181
      537137 536124 538119 540117 545112 549104 553090 556078
 0.01 545909 545894 543888 543880 542843 541833 540828 539813
      537784 537777 537772 536757 535730 534725 532717 529703
      527694 525688 521675 518664 514655 509644 507637 505631
      501629 497630 493629 491630 491634 488654 471664 465669
      461677 453693 451699 447704 440711 436717 434722 432726
      427735 424739 420742 407754 397767 386780 377792 370799
      362807 352822 347829 346835 344838 341843 343845 345850
      347849 352842 355838 359836 366833 371832 375833 377836
      376840 375842 375845 377850 379860 382871 383884 384892
      383897 374914 372917 368920 363920 359922 355919 352917
      352914 351900 354878 355867 355862 358857 361850 361847
      357848 349855 344862 341866 340870 334878 330880 325879
      316878 308876 305872 304866 296845 294840 299838 301836
      299832 295825 300824 305823 309822 313819 315815 319813
      324806 329801 334793 338782 333785 328790 325794 322796
      320790 318787 313784 308783 304782 298782 296778 296772
      294767 292763 287758 280754 274755 268756 262761 257764
      252769 247774 245777 242786 240795 238807 235815 233820
      233823 237847 235856 232864 231868 230873 231879 232885
      235889 239896 251907 256914 257925 259930 259937 263944
      266947 269948 273950 279950 282950 286951 284956 279964
      277968 273969 264971 260973 258977 257978 261980 270984
      275987 277986 287983 295981 301978 309974 321965 337960
      337973 338979 337986 335991 334997 328002 315011 312012
      307013 296012 287009 278008 273008 269008 268010 264019
      263025 262027 258028 254026 248026 244026 240025 236023
      230023 226052 226054 226056 226058 227060 228061 229061
      231061
 0.01 231061 234067 238072 249082 267097 279103 289110 295114
      299118 304123 311126 321121 320113 323110 327108 346123
      348126 349130 353132 359132 365128 370132 374137 376144
      380149 382156 386157 391156 393154 394150 394145 391142
      389139 388135 388131 389126 392121 396117 406111 409104
      407098 404105 401108 397107 394101 394091 397083 400077
      404070 408073 412073 415068 419069 420074 423079 423085
      420091 418094 418100 420114 433116 446119 450119 450116
      451111 454108 457111 461112 467109 468106 467104 458103
      454099 450094 447089 445081 448080 451081 452077 451074
      447069 444065 444060 443050 445043 446038 445035 443027
      442023 439020 435021 431022 425022 421025 420028 412037
      400043 385041 383039 384036 386029 390020 393014 397009
      401003 404996 407988 412972 416959 420943 421940 422935
      422927 425919 429911 436897 438892 436883 435880 436876
      439867 441861 442849 446844 449841 451837 455836 461838
      466841 471843 475845 478845 484844 488844 491849 491861
      491881 488904 488913 487917 487923 486934 484939 481948
      480953 481960 484978 484984 482989 484995 487998 490005
      495010 499014 504019 510014 519006 522999 524992 526984
      529972 531965 533956 536947 538939 539932 541928 541923
      545909
 0.01 445155 445154 444152 443151 442149 442147 441144 440143
      439143 437142 435142 435143 435145 435146 436148 436149
      437151 438152 439152 441154 443155 444155 445155
 0.01 375096 375091 374088 371086 367080 361079 360085 362089
      362094 358094 354093 351090 346088 346092 347098 352106
      356113 358116 363119 367117 369112 372102 375096
 0.25 530175 529162 528155 526148 526140 525134 523127 520122
      516113 513108 511113 512121 513126 517140 520151 523165
      524170 526174 530175
 0.25 522744 521727 521720 518714 518699 517691 515685 512680
      511676 507685 503696 501701 498706 486720 484726 483732
      480741 478748 478754 478760 481764 486774 488778 492782
      499786 502785 505780 508775 509770 513769 517766 520760
      521755 522744
 0.25 525855 525852 524850 524849 523847 522847 522850 522852
      523854 524855 525855 525855
 0.25 515955 516942 515939 516934 515929 515923 515913 515887
      512879 509870 505864 503865 502870 501880 501891 501901
      499911 497920 497928 499935 503942 505945 509947 510950
      510955 510965 512966 514962 515955
 0.25 480721 479718 478714 477709 476706 473706 470709 468712
      467714 467717 466721 466725 467727 470729 473727 477725
      478724 480721
 0.25 445812 439770 437768 434768 429771 425778 421786 423790
      420792 416792 406799 401805 398812 396819 394824 392828
      393833 395837 399845 400855 399864 397874 395883 392900
      391909 388919 385926 382933 379938 375945 369961 363977
      360983 355988 345997 335006 330011 326019 327023 329026
      335029 349037 353042 356049 359054 362056 366056 372055
      376053 377049 368039 366034 368028 372023 376017 381009
      387995 389989 393983 402970 405962 408953 413938 417921
      420913 424905 426898 428887 430868 435853 437844 439834
      445812
 0.25 437095 437093 437090 437089 436088 436085 435084 433084
      432085 431085 430086 429087 428089 428092 429094 430094
      431096 432097 434098 436097 437095
 0.25 439067 438064 437062 437060 436059 435058 433057 432059
      431061 431062 433064 435066 436068 438069 439067
 0.25 426058 425056 423056 423058 425059 426058
 0.25 382069 382067 381065 380064 378064 376066 376067 376068
      376069 376070 376071 376073 376074 378076 379075 380074
      381072 382070 382069
 0.25 327928 327921 325916 322912 320909 310907 306905 304901
      301879 300874 297871 293870 286869 274870 268865 266860
      265855 264849 264841 266838 271835 276829 277824 275819
      269812 263803 268799 267796 264794 258795 253798 250800
      247804 245807 244813 243817 243823 248833 252842 252852
      248861 244870 243875 246880 253885 261889 267894 274902
      279909 285915 292922 295924 298928 301937 303943 305946
      312946 315943 327928
 0.25 321033 323025 319022 314022 308024 291035 286037 280038
      271042 265044 259044 247044 240044 236047 235053 239057
      244065 251073 268086 273088 279090 286090 288089 289085
      288079 289072 290066 291062 293060 301055 309048 316040
      321033
 0.25 296805 296803 295801 294800 293799 292798 290797 289797
      288798 287800 285801 283802 282802 283803 285804 287805
      288806 289806 291806 293806 295806 296805
 0.50 439818 439812 438807 436800 431796 429795 425795 419799
      415803 410808 409811 407809 402813 402818 398824 398830
      401837 405842 409842 411845 414846 416844 422844 428841
      429833 433828 437822 439818
 0.50 425883 425872 424869 422865 416867 414868 412861 415850
      413848 411850 408859 407864 405868 395908 392918 389927
      386936 381943 373958 371967 369978 367990 368994 371996
      375998 374002 370004 368007 367011 367018 372012 377006
      379002 381997 377995 379990 384984 393969 397961 401953
      409937 415918 418911 421907 422902 425892 425883
 0.50 369050 367049 365049 363049 363050 363052 365052 367051
      369050 369050
 0.50 355002 355001 353002 352004 353005 353004 355003 355002
 0.50 308041 309038 309036 309034 309032 308032 306031 304031
      304032 303032 301034 299036 298038 297040 298042 298043
      299044 300045 302044 304044 306043 308042 308041
 0.50 311939 312937 312935 312932 312930 310929 308929 307930
      307933 306933 306935 307936 307937 308939 310939 311939
 0.50 297887 296879 290877 283879 279881 278888 280894 283898
      287902 291905 295901 296893 297887
 0.50 282080 280070 277061 274053 270052 265051 256052 252054
      249056 249062 250067 256073 259076 263077 268078 272081
      275082 281082 282080
 1.00 424820 424817 423815 423814 421813 419812 419813 418815
      417816 416818 415821 415822 414823 413826 413828 415830
      417830 419830 420828 421827 422826 423825 423822 424820
 1.00 405924 406914 406903 405898 403899 400906 398914 396920
      391933 385947 379961 377968 376971 378974 385971 389965
      395954 402941 404934 405925 405924
 1.50 400938 400932 399929 397929 395932 391940 388946 384954
      382961 381966 383968 387962 391956 395949 399943 400938
 2.00 397938 395938 393940 392943 391945 389948 388952 387954
      386958 385961 386961 388959 389956 391953 393949 394947
      395945 396940 397938

$$





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