Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 030650
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
150 AM EST WED FEB 03 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 03/1200 UTC THRU FEB 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...GREAT LAKES REGION...EASTERN SEABOARD...

THE STRONG LOW CENTER NOW MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL TRAVERSE
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WED AND WILL BE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING BEFORE THE STORM EXITS INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WED NIGHT
AND THURS. SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE
U.P. OF MI WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COMBINATION OF A
WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE AND AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS...COUPLED
WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR GIVEN A RELATIVELY
MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FETCH OVER THE LAKE. SEE THE LATEST
QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

FARTHER EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD STRETCHING FROM THE
EASTERN GULF COAST STATES NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND...THERE WILL BE A PATTERN OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH ARE FORECAST
TO BE 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN OVER BASICALLY THE
ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS AXIS
OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IS COURTESY OF AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WHICH A CONSENSUS OF MODELS INDICATES
REACHING AS HIGH AS 50 TO 70 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THUS
RESULTING IN EXTREMELY HIGH MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS AXIS OF HIGHER PWS
WHERE CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE COINCIDING WITH A
RELATIVELY DIFFLUENT FLOW REGIME ALOFT. THE GLOBAL MODELS IN
GENERAL APPEAR TO BE UNDERDONE A BIT WITH THEIR QPF...AND
ESPECIALLY THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS WHICH ARE SIMPLY NOT GENERATING
ENOUGH HEAVY RAIN GIVEN SUCH ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SOME
AREAS ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD PW VALUES
FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY...AND WITH THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP...HEAVY
RAINS ARE GUARANTEED OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE IS A BIT WETTER AND ESPECIALLY THE 00Z
UKMET...BUT THESE MODELS MAY LOCALLY BE UNDERDONE. WIDESPREAD 1 TO
2 INCH RAINS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS AREAS INCLUDING THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...AND ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF HIGH
TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL BE ENHANCING RAINFALL RATES.
THE HEAVIEST RAINS FOR THE PERIOD THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BE DOWN
ACROSS PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE. CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
COUPLED WITH A MUCH BETTER DEFINED AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL
PROMOTE ORGANIZED AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS HERE
WHICH IS STRONGLY ADVERTISED BY THE 00Z WRF-ARW AND THE 00Z
NSSL-WRF SOLUTIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HERE OF 3 TO AS MUCH AS 5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WHERE THERE IS ONGOING
SNOW-MELT...EXPECT THERE TO BE CONCERNS FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND
FLOODING. ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR FLOODING ARE EXPECTED DOWN
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHWEST GA WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.


...COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE NEXT AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
LATER WED AFTERNOON AND THROUGH WED NIGHT. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW/INCREASING PW VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING COVERAGE OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS FOR THE COASTAL RANGES OF WA/OR AND
NORTHWEST CA. THIS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE WA/OR CASCADES BY WED
NIGHT. EXPECT WATER EQUIVALENTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE MORE
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED HIGH TERRAIN WHICH IS A TAD HIGHER THAN THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. SPILLOVER MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL CROSS
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY THURS...BUT THE WATER
EQUIVALENTS HERE WILL BE MUCH MORE MODEST THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
TOTALS UNDER A 0.50 INCH.

ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 483615 487616 489619 493626 496631 500638 511663 518676
      521686 523699 525726 527741 527748 526754 521789 519805
      517811 515819 513828 511838 507854 504862 501873 496878
      491886 488890 484897 480904 477910 474915 469917 464918
      459922 453925 449926 446928 443928 442923 439915 437912
      432912 427912 424910 419904 418901 418896 419887 423881
      426875 424871 418870 415864 413859 415851 420848 426851
      431851 433849 440846 450835 455828 458820 457813 453808
      448802 444800 439798 435797 431798 425801 422804 419814
      418818 415819 413817 411813 408807 398816 392822 386827
      376836 366845 348857 324877 314884 303893 293902 284909
      268923 261926 258928 254926 251919 246919 242919 238915
      236913 236909 236899 236894 237892 242879 244873 245865
      246860 247853 255845 260841 265838 278830 284825 289820
      294815 299809 311785 317776 325767 347745 356735 365725
      383705 398687 407676 412669 418663 427652 437641 443634
      452626
 0.01 534212 535205 535200 534193 534189 532180 529173 525167
      519160 513153 506148 502146 498144 495142 493138 489133
      484129 476128 472130 470134 465132 464128 463121 462116
      445101 440100 437101 434104 429105 425105 423107 422112
      419113 420131 411140 406149 402150 399148 399152 396157
      394161 395166 396169 394173 389177 386180 386184 386187
      388190 391193 396196 396199 393199 389199 385200 385205
      389211 392214 392219 385220 380222 377229 376234 374238
      372245 372250 374255 377258 381260 384265 387271 389276
      391278 403285 413289 420290 430293 441296 457299 469300
      477302 487302 494302 502301 505300 508298 512291 515284
      518275 519269 520261 518250 517244 516239 512229 505215
      501209 497202 498198 500193 503191 508193 513200 517206
      521212 525215 528216 531215 534212
 0.01 515051 514047 512043 509036 506029 501021 496016 495015
      493018 493023 494028 494031 497036 501042 505048 510054
      513053 515051
 0.01 506955 506944 504941 501941 497941 497937 496929 494923
      491921 487921 484921 482919 474920 470922 465929 464932
      460932 459934 458940 459942 462942 465940 469942 470945
      470949 472953 474955 477957 476960 477962 481967 487968
      491967 494965 504957 506955
 0.01 479954 479952 477950 476952 476954 477956 479954
 0.01 470991 469988 466984 465976 464971 462969 459966 455966
      457971 458976 460981 463984 465989 467992 469994 470991
 0.01 453816 451811 449809 445807 440808 435809 431809 430814
      428817 432819 437818 440815 445815 449817 453816
 0.01 448077 448075 446072 445072 443072 444075 446077 448078
      448077
 0.01 445043 445041 443038 441038 440038 439040 440041 441043
      443043 445043 445043
 0.01 416064 414061 410063 407064 403065 402068 399069 397071
      399074 401076 404074 407073 410074 413073 412068 413065
      416064 416064
 0.01 407058 405058 404058 402058 400057 398057 397059 396060
      395062 394064 394066 396064 398062 400060 402058 404058
      405058 407058 407058
 0.01 372057 372055 370055 368054 367054 365056 363054 361054
      361056 363058 363059 363058 365057 366057 368057 370057
      372057 372057
 0.25 527199 525193 522188 519183 515178 510173 507174 506177
      508183 512188 515192 519198 523203 526201 527199
 0.25 515269 516263 516257 515248 511238 507229 500215 494208
      487205 479204 473206 465208 460207 457209 455212 452213
      446215 437216 430219 428222 428228 428231 425233 416230
      409223 403228 396228 391227 387229 386231 387236 390244
      394251 400256 410261 417264 423268 428271 430275 433278
      437280 452284 469285 501290 507288 510284 513275 515269
 0.25 513709 513701 512693 508683 505672 501662 496653 489644
      480638 476636 471635 466638 462641 456648 442659 427672
      417679 412682 409686 357745 334769 326777 320785 317789
      314795 311803 305812 300819 289829 273844 267850 264854
      262860 260869 259880 259891 260902 263905 268903 277900
      294889 357846 382823 396806 404799 413795 420788 423785
      427782 434780 442776 447773 451772 457771 462773 466775
      470779 476787 483793 488795 491792 495784 497779 500776
      504767 508755 510741 513725 513709
 0.25 500178 498172 496169 489166 485163 480160 475159 472158
      467152 463150 459151 455157 451161 447156 443154 440153
      438151 435150 433152 445172 447177 445179 440183 440188
      442190 446192 449197 453196 456189 462184 464178 463175
      459175 456174 455167 461164 466167 484176 488179 493179
      495181 498180 500178
 0.25 471883 471882 470880 469878 468875 467873 467876 467878
      467880 468883 470885 471883 471883
 0.25 470893 470892 469890 468888 468890 467893 466894 466895
      466898 467899 468898 469898 469895 470893 470893
 0.25 403216 401215 401213 400213 398211 396211 396212 396213
      398214 398215 399216 401216 403216 403216
 0.50 514261 514252 511244 503225 499218 495213 491210 486208
      477207 465212 449216 437221 435225 435230 433235 430237
      427237 423236 416233 413233 407235 405237 403239 404242
      409247 417250 428252 436253 442251 449250 458250 463251
      467255 468260 465262 459263 451265 449269 448272 448276
      451278 455279 462279 478278 494284 502285 506283 508280
      510268 514261
 0.50 499732 498720 497709 496697 493687 489677 484670 479661
      475658 471656 464655 457657 445666 436673 429680 423686
      415691 402701 391710 367738 348761 336775 331783 326790
      321795 317802 313808 308814 297825 284838 278844 274849
      270855 268863 271874 272881 273884 272890 272893 273894
      278892 285888 293885 304878 320867 333857 339852 346849
      352845 357841 363834 369829 375822 378810 380806 383803
      388798 393794 400790 409787 412786 417783 423775 426772
      431770 436769 440767 446761 450757 457752 464748 466747
      471749 475750 480751 488753 493750 496746 499738 499732
 0.50 484227 485225 484224 482224 482227 484227 484227
 1.00 505276 505269 502263 497253 491244 488241 483242 478232
      474232 469235 469239 470242 474247 481255 485264 487269
      490274 495277 501278 505276
 1.00 508251 508245 506240 504235 503231 501226 498221 495218
      493219 491222 493228 495231 498236 500240 502244 504249
      507251 508251
 1.00 485217 485215 484213 482212 481211 479212 477212 476212
      475214 477216 478216 480217 482218 483218 485217 485217
 1.00 465221 465219 464218 463217 461217 460217 459218 457219
      457222 458223 460224 462224 463223 464223 465221
 1.00 460240 461238 461235 460234 459233 457233 455233 453234
      452234 450234 448235 447236 447238 447239 449240 451241
      452241 454241 456241 458240 459240 460240
 1.00 450684 449680 447680 444683 439689 436695 433706 433710
      430711 423715 419718 415722 411734 415729 420727 422729
      422732 421736 417736 413744 408749 405754 402759 402765
      403767 408767 413763 416758 419754 422748 423745 427746
      428753 430759 435761 439757 443745 439731 439721 444716
      447711 450705 451699 449695 449689 450684
 1.00 401723 401719 400717 397717 393719 389722 382730 375739
      364755 359765 354775 343790 327803 313815 298830 291837
      285843 279851 278855 280860 282863 286867 288869 288872
      290875 295875 300874 305871 314864 322859 329854 336845
      340842 346842 355836 357832 358827 361822 365818 369808
      371803 373798 379791 379789 376787 373786 371783 373772
      375766 377762 380759 385757 390754 392750 395736 399730
      401723
 1.50 501272 501269 500265 499263 497260 495257 493255 492253
      490252 490255 491260 492263 493266 495268 496270 499272
      501272
 1.50 500232 499229 499228 498226 497226 497228 497229 498232
      500232
 1.50 436746 436744 435741 434739 433739 432739 431740 431742
      431745 431747 432749 433751 434750 435749 436746 436746
 1.50 350822 351820 350818 348820 347821 345822 345823 343825
      342827 344828 345828 347827 349826 350824 350822 350822
 1.50 345803 345798 342799 333804 327809 319815 313818 306825
      295836 290842 285852 285856 287859 290862 295863 299865
      300868 304867 308864 314859 321853 321848 324845 330837
      329830 333822 338816 343807 345803
 2.00 323821 320820 314822 307827 302831 295838 290845 289848
      288854 290857 295859 300859 305857 312852 318846 320843
      322838 322825 323821
 3.00 310839 310833 309831 305833 302836 299840 297843 294847
      294851 298853 303851 307848 309845 310840 310839

$$




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