Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 260658
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 26/1200 UTC THRU JUL 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE EAST/NORTHEAST U.S...

ONE PROBLEM RESOLVED ITSELF SINCE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM IL HAD FINALLY DISSIPATED.  HOWEVER
SHOWERS HAD PROGRESSED INTO PA AHEAD OF A VORT MAX FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION.  THIS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE 12Z IF IT
SURVIVES THAT LONG.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SOME OF THE HI
RES GUIDANCE WASH IT OUT.  BASED ON COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER
PA...AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE GUIDANCE WHICH DOES NOT DISSIPATE
THINGS TOO EARLY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN MOVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ON GOING CONVECTION
SHOULD TRACK EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK AND RATHER ILL
DEFINED SHORTWAVES IN THE MODELS...BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TO BUILD UPSCALE AS IT APPROACHES THE OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING AND MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT.  AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...THE MODEL QPF REMAINED SOMEWHAT STINGY GIVEN THAT THE
MODELS DEVELOPED THE CONVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF A PRECIPITABLE
WATER AND INSTABILITY AXIS AND IN A REGION OF DEEP LAYERED SHEAR.
TENDED TO GO AT OR ABOVE MODEL QPF GUIDANCE HERE.  WITH THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOWING BETTER DEFINITION TO THEIR LOW/MID LEVEL VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS AND ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLE QPF...WE
TRANSLATED A PART OF THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED SLIGHT RISK FROM DAY 2
INTO THE NEW DAY 1 TIME FRAME.  SEVERAL POSSIBILITIES...INCLUDING
UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTERCEPTING TO MUCH MOISTURE...MAY PRECLUDE
MUCH FLASH FLOODING.

BACK TO THE WEST ONE WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND JET STREAK COMING
ACROSS SD AND ANOTHER COMING OUT OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WPC QPF FOLLOWED THE
00Z NAM/GFS AND STORM SCALE ENSEMBLES HERE.


...SOUTHWESTERN U.S TO COLORADO...

SOME LINGERING CONVECTINO OVER WESTERN AZ EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITS THE
THREAT OF ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING.  HOWEVER THE GLOBAL AND HI
RESOLUTION MODELS FIRE UP MORE CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH THE SIGNALS FOR SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SUGGEST THAT
LOCALIZED RUN OFF PROBLEMS WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE THAT THE STORMS CAN TAP.

...GULF COAST...SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST AND FLORIDA...

WITH A WEAKENING FRONT BECOMING POORLY DEFINED...THINK THAT THE
BEST FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT FROM THE AREA
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO
THE FL PENINSULA ON SATURDAY.  WPC QPF USED THE 12Z SSEO MEAN AS A
GENERAL OUTLINE...AND THE 12Z WRF ARW TO FILL IN THE DETAILS.

BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 536212 536205 535200 532196 529193 526193 522194 522202
      523207 524211 527216 531217 534214 536212
 0.01 541094 542087 540083 538072 535062 534048 535032 536027
      537020 537012 536008 536993 535962 530950 527939 523928
      518918 508893 506882 503872 500860 497850 496836 496821
      495807 494800 495793 495779 495770 495761 497745 499738
      499735 502734 508726 513718 515713 516708 517695 512669
      509658 504649 500643 494638 488637 485640 483645 482651
      482659 481670 478681 472690 465698 455702 436707 435710
      433712 431712 434704 437695 436688 434684 429680 424679
      423680 417687 411694 407703 405709 402713 391727 389733
      387738 386742 389748 389752 388753 385757 377764 378769
      380773 387769 391768 393768 393770 392780 391786 389789
      383794 377800 373810 370818 369832 368844 368849 369856
      370862 371870 370876 370885 372891 372900 374905 378909
      382916 387922 392929 394932 396938 400947 401951 402956
      403962 403968 402974 398977 391981 385990 381997 375004
      374011 375017 374021 372023 369026 362027 358030 356035
      358039 359044 358049 356053 355058 362067 368067 370071
      373078 377086 378091 377098 381093 384090 388088 391085
      396084 399083 401081 404077 406074 407065 410060 410052
      409046 410038 408034 407032 407028 409020 408015 406012
      404009 401011 395018 387019 385019 383017 386013 390005
      395998 403994 411988 417984 422983 424990 428000 431005
      436008 440009 442008 446005 449000 450993 449982 447971
      444962 440952 437943 432936 428928 425919 421893 418880
      417867 417854 418845 421844 431843 436845 442849 447855
      451863 455869 457872 456875 452878 450881 450883 452894
      453901 455903 458907 459912 458917 457923 460936 460942
      462947 466950 468954 470961 472965 477974 482977 484982
      485000 489025
 0.01 489025 492035 495046 498056 499060 503063 509059 510065
      510074 513082 517091 521099 524104 527106 532106 536105
      538103 540097 541094
 0.01 409108 409105 410103 410101 410098 408096 408095 408096
      406098 406100 406102 406103 407105 407107 407108 409108
      409108
 0.01 406042 406040 406037 406035 406033 405031 404033 403035
      401035 400037 398039 396041 397043 399043 401043 403043
      405043 406042
 0.01 392119 390115 385111 379115 376119 371116 360112 356110
      354108 355105 359103 363099 360096 362090 356088 354089
      350088 349083 345080 342079 340078 336078 330077 326079
      321082 314082 309084 305081 300078 296076 289076 283073
      272067 258053 255049 250045 246042 238040 232041 229044
      227057 228062 231067 237070 241074 255088 266094 275102
      282108 289115 294119 299122 305124 313125 323123 331127
      337127 340132 344136 348138 352137 356137 360141 365142
      370141 371143 375144 377143 380144 383145 385138 387132
      389128 392119
 0.01 377773 376770 373767 367764 355757 350757 346756 342754
      337754 333754 329756 323762 319770 318779 317789 316797
      316804 313801 310799 305799 303797 303794 300791 296789
      289790 270792 267794 265797 262799 258799 255797 250798
      248800 248806 253816 256818 255822 256827 258830 265832
      280835 285834 288831 287826 283825 278824 280823 292821
      296822 298824 298827 295831 293838 293843 292845 294849
      297852 299856 300863 301868 299870 296868 293868 292870
      297943 296946 295952 291959 288956 284964 282968 285970
      290970 292968 297965 299962 303954 307945 308938 309927
      309916 307906 304897 302892 303887 304882 304876 309875
      310865 313858 313848 315839 319830 323821 329814 335810
      340804 345788 347780 349775 352771 355770 358772 361776
      367782 370781 372779 377773
 0.01 367155 368153 367151 367150 365150 364150 363151 362152
      361154 360156 360159 362159 364159 365157 366156 367155
 0.01 360147 358146 357146 355145 353145 351145 350146 350148
      350150 350152 349154 350155 351154 352154 353153 354152
      355151 356150 358150 359149 360148 360147
 0.01 343151 342148 340147 338145 335143 333142 330142 328143
      327146 327149 328151 332153 334154 337155 340155 342153
      343151
 0.01 342118 341117 340117 338117 337117 338119 338122 339123
      340122 341120 342118
 0.01 318153 317152 317151 316149 315148 314147 313146 313145
      311145 309144 309145 307146 305146 304148 305149 306151
      306152 308153 308154 310154 312155 313155 315155 317153
      318153
 0.01 255008 255002 255998 251994 248993 244994 240995 236997
      234001 236004 241006 243008 247010 252010 255008
 0.25 523994 523983 523972 522961 520952 509918 507910 505903
      498886 493872 485859 483856 480857 479864 478875 476885
      470897 470903 471907 475912 480918 483924 489942 492957
      500972 503978 504986 502998 503011 504019 507025 509029
      512027 514023 516017 520007 523994
 0.25 506688 506681 504675 500675 497678 492686 488686 484688
      479695 476704 474709 472713 468722 464731 459736 454739
      450738 441734 437734 432736 425741 420747 419753 419761
      420766 423769 428768 432766 447755 452753 454752 456755
      460761 463763 466767 469781 470795 470800 469804 467809
      466814 468818 472823 474825 478826 480823 482819 484814
      486809 487796 485768 486754 487742 490733 493723 495719
      500717 503707 506688
 0.25 461815 460810 458805 455803 450804 448807 449811 451816
      451822 451828 453833 457834 460830 461824 461817 461815
 0.25 442990 442985 442981 441978 440973 438972 436973 435976
      435980 435983 435988 436991 438993 441993 442990
 0.25 413819 413811 411806 408799 406797 404796 392797 386800
      383804 381810 381817 380825 380834 379845 378854 380863
      384874 388888 392899 397910 401920 406924 408925 410923
      413918 414913 414903 413894 409864 409856 409848 411833
      413819
 0.25 406054 403051 401051 395055 392057 390055 383053 379054
      379056 380066 388068 390076 394076 396073 396069 395064
      400059 406054
 0.25 376130 377128 377127 376125 375124 374125 374127 375129
      376130 376130
 0.25 378080 379078 379076 378074 377076 376078 377080 377081
      378080
 0.25 366133 367131 367128 366126 366125 365123 364123 362125
      362126 362127 361130 361132 362132 363134 365134 366133
 0.25 360118 359116 356114 354113 351111 350110 347107 344106
      344109 346111 348112 350114 350119 352121 354120 358118
      360118
 0.25 348130 348128 348127 347125 348123 348121 349121 348120
      348119 347116 345118 344120 343121 342122 341124 342126
      343127 344127 346128 347130 348130
 0.25 342098 343096 343094 342092 341091 340090 339090 338091
      338093 338095 338096 339098 340099 341100 342098
 0.25 333791 333787 333783 332781 329781 327783 326786 325788
      324792 324795 324799 325803 326805 329805 331803 332800
      332798 333793 333791
 0.25 329105 327100 322097 317094 309094 304094 300091 289085
      281079 269073 265070 262066 258061 254057 245052 238051
      233053 232056 233059 237063 247070 255075 260079 264083
      273089 283096 298113 301116 307118 313118 320114 329105
 0.25 284808 280806 276810 273811 271809 267806 260805 256805
      255809 256812 262815 268815 273817 277819 282817 284810
      284808
 0.50 514960 515950 512942 507929 503916 500910 497905 494900
      492898 489899 484900 481901 479904 482910 485916 488921
      490929 494942 501954 509962 512963 514960
 0.50 494707 493701 490698 487698 485702 482709 477717 471736
      469744 473756 474765 475778 475784 475790 477805 479805
      481802 482789 482783 480777 480769 480761 483741 485732
      488724 494707
 0.50 493891 492889 491886 490884 488886 489889 490890 491891
      492892 493892 493891
 0.50 438748 438746 434744 430745 427747 426748 424753 426757
      428757 432757 433756 436753 438751 438748
 0.50 409908 410902 409896 408882 407873 406859 405836 405824
      402816 392801 389800 387802 383811 385820 385831 385854
      386863 389872 393881 396890 403906 406909 409908
 0.50 402056 402054 400054 399055 400056 402056 402056
 0.50 391066 391064 390063 389063 388061 386063 387064 388066
      389066 391067 391066
 0.50 366130 366128 366127 364128 364130 365131 366130
 0.50 355117 354116 354115 353114 351115 352117 352118 354118
      355117
 0.50 347123 347121 345121 343122 344125 346124 347123
 0.50 322106 319101 312100 305099 300096 298094 294094 295098
      297104 299109 304114 311114 317112 320108 322106
 0.50 276084 276082 275081 274081 273081 273083 275084 276084
 0.50 265811 264809 263808 262807 260808 258809 260811 262811
      264811 265811
 0.50 258067 257065 253062 248060 244059 241057 237055 235056
      238059 241062 244064 248066 253068 258068 258067
 1.00 503939 503937 503934 502933 501931 499931 499932 499934
      499936 499937 501939 502940 503939
 1.00 401850 400841 399834 395830 393830 391833 390840 390847
      390854 392861 394865 394867 398867 400862 401853 401850
 1.50 398853 398851 398848 397846 397844 395843 394844 394846
      394849 395851 395853 396854 397855 398853

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