Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 310638
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 31/1200 UTC THRU SEP 01/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NORTHEAST SC INTO EASTERN NC

THE WELL DEFINED VORT THAT HAS EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THIS
WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EAST NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
DEFINED WITH TIME--BUT STILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS NORTHEAST SC INTO EASTERN NC IN A
REGION OF FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND STRONG MOIST (PW VALUES
2.00-2.25"+) SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE ATLANTIC.  THERE ARE
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE EAST NORTHEAST
PUSH OF PRECIP---WITH THE DAY 1 QPF LEANING TOWARD THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS OF THE NAM---1200 UTC SUNDAY ECMWF AND CMC
GEM.  WHILE FFG VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS THESE AREAS---SLOW
MOVING OR TRAINING OF CELLS POSSIBLE---ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF DAY 1---OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC.

FLORIDA

THE AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK DAY 1 AS LOWER PW AIR MOVES
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER SOUTH FL IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL VORT
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FL.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FOR LESS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE PENINSULA
MONDAY---CONCENTRATING MORE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL COASTAL AREA
WHERE PW VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AND MOIST LOW LEVEL
INFLOW OFF THE GULF WILL CONCENTRATE.  ISOLATED URBAN  RUNOFF
ISSUES POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

FAR NORTHERN ND AND NORTHERN MN

FAST MOVING HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA MONDAY.  MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP TO REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ALONG THE TRACK OF THE FAST MOVING VORT.  THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS PRECIP AXIS MAY CLIP AREAS OF FAR NORTHERN
ND AND FAR NORTHERN MN---BUT AT THE MOMENT--MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
LIGHT AMOUNTS GIVEN THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE HEIGHT FALLS.

PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

THE STRONG MEAN CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL KEEP BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE TO ITS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. DAY 1.  THIS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED
SHOWERY PATTERN FOR THE WASHINGTON STATE CASCADES TO THE WA COAST
RANGE/OLYMPIC RANGE WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS.

SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN---CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE LEE OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES

AN AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST FROM
NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST---GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.  SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS MAY SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN CO MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS
POSSIBLE HERE.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 563933 563913 562905 561897 560882 558867 555853 550844
      545838 538834 533837 531841 527851 523860 520871 516883
      512894 510904 507918 500941 497953 493962 487972 483982
      480992 479998 479007 485010 486016 484022 484027 487038
      492046 497049 502049 505047 507043 510038 511032 512027
      513019 514000 514991 515985 520978 526971 533965 539956
      546953 553947 557944 560941 563933
 0.01 538205 540196 539190 537180 534172 531165 527161 523159
      514156 509154 503158 495160 488163 485170 484181 484185
      486190 490198 478203 471208 465212 463214 463218 463224
      462230 455235 453238 453242 455246 457248 460250 465252
      469251 473252 480258 491271 500285 505287 508287 513282
      515277 516272 519261 517243 515231 516227 519226 523225
      525228 529229 531227 535215 538205
 0.01 489683 487673 481675 471680 467672 464671 461673 458679
      456686 451699 448707 446714 446724 448727 451727 458729
      463728 467727 469724 476722 480721 481718 484713 485702
      486694 489683
 0.01 437019 438003 436995 433992 428990 422992 404014 401017
      397019 395022 391023 387031 382035 375039 369041 362044
      359045 356048 355061 348065 335071 329076 324079 317081
      307081 271069 262066 255063 249061 244058 236053 230056
      227058 226064 226074 228081 232086 245094 250101 255106
      266107 273107 284116 292118 296118 300117 311117 320117
      326113 332115 337121 341124 345124 348126 354131 358134
      362135 365134 368130 370127 371122 368113 367110 368106
      368101 371097 375097 377101 376112 381119 385120 388119
      396115 401113 409110 414107 415097 416088 418083 419077
      420073 421067 422061 420057 416050 415046 415041 417032
      424032 431028 435023 437019
 0.01 413805 412793 410789 408789 405790 403793 400800 397808
      393814 389820 385825 380832 380841 381853 381859 383861
      387868 393870 402869 405868 407866 410847 412828 412816
      412807 413805
 0.01 371768 370759 367753 368746 368739 367731 366722 363717
      360713 352715 348718 345721 341722 336725 330732 323741
      306758 298766 289772 284776 281777 279779 270785 266789
      264791 262790 258791 253794 234810 232815 234821 236824
      235830 235838 237842 243852 252857 256859 264860 271860
      276857 280857 284858 289859 291860 295860 298857 300853
      302846 304843 305840 306832 316826 326821 332820 334818
      337817 340815 344816 346818 347822 345825 345829 342834
      341838 343843 348844 352840 355835 358828 361816 362808
      363803 366791 370778 371768
 0.01 368934 366929 361930 355933 350936 343945 335952 327960
      327966 330969 332965 337962 343958 346954 355947 359944
      363941 368934
 0.01 230991 234005 238016 243020 249020 255019 263019 272013
      277001 283989 290981 294966 296956 296946 297939 301926
      301920 299913 295908 292910 291912 284923 281929 277933
      268939 264944 259947 250955 244965 242968 237969 233969
      231971
 0.25 550900 549888 547882 545876 542875 540876 536880 532888
      527901 523911 513931 509943 505955 499966 496977 496983
      497985 501985 508978 515970 520960 530941 542922 547912
      549906 550900
 0.25 531211 533205 533200 533192 531183 530176 526171 522166
      517162 513164 505164 499167 497172 495177 496181 499186
      502192 504200 505203 507205 511208 523213 527214 531211
 0.25 511260 512253 512249 511239 510229 508222 504212 504208
      502204 488205 481207 476209 473213 473219 477225 469234
      467239 469243 474247 481252 486258 496270 498271 501270
      505265 511260
 0.25 490234 490233 488232 486231 485231 483231 482232 483234
      484234 486234 488235 489235 490234
 0.25 408054 409049 408046 406043 403043 399044 397044 394045
      392045 390048 391050 392053 393055 396055 399054 402055
      404056 406056 408054
 0.25 365775 364769 362764 361751 360740 358734 355730 352728
      347728 339733 334737 329744 320759 313774 310783 305790
      301796 296802 291804 286804 278803 270803 265804 262807
      261812 258815 251819 248826 248831 250834 256841 263845
      269848 278850 284850 288847 293841 297835 300827 308810
      311803 313799 316797 336792 352793 355793 358790 362785
      364781 365775
 0.25 296101 294096 291093 283086 274081 265076 262074 256072
      253076 254081 256086 261088 270093 277100 286104 292104
      295103 296101
 0.25 274974 275970 274966 272966 270966 267968 265969 261970
      259972 261975 263976 266977 270976 272976 274974
 0.50 529205 530192 530186 529181 526174 524171 521169 517169
      514170 510169 506169 503170 502176 504184 506189 508193
      512198 515206 523208 528206 529205
 0.50 538907 538904 538901 537901 536904 534904 534905 533907
      533908 532910 531912 531914 533914 534913 535912 536911
      537909 537908 538907
 0.50 507253 509246 509240 508232 505223 502216 497209 490208
      483209 477212 477215 479218 484223 488226 490229 491237
      488239 485238 481238 480234 477231 473232 471235 471240
      477246 481247 484250 492262 495265 497264 500262 500256
      507253
 0.50 519952 520944 519940 517941 515944 512949 511955 509958
      507962 505967 509968 512965 514962 517958 518954 519952
 0.50 358750 356742 354734 351732 347732 341735 335740 332746
      326757 322769 319776 319785 321788 324789 331789 338788
      344787 351784 356781 359774 358765 358750
 0.50 300810 299808 295808 287809 274805 271808 271811 274816
      259819 254823 252828 253832 255834 260838 270844 277846
      285845 290840 293835 296829 298822 300810
 1.00 525198 526190 525184 523179 520177 518177 514174 511173
      508177 508181 509186 512190 515193 517198 520200 524199
      525198
 1.00 505244 506237 504230 501222 498217 494213 489215 487218
      489221 491227 493233 496239 500244 503245 505244
 1.00 478238 478235 477235 476234 474234 474237 475239 477239
      478238
 1.00 353753 351742 347740 343741 337747 333756 331765 328775
      328779 330782 335783 338782 346778 350774 351771 352760
      353753
 1.00 291830 291825 289823 283823 278825 274824 268822 263822
      259823 258828 263833 268837 275840 278841 283840 288837
      291830
 1.50 503241 503236 502233 501230 500227 499224 498221 495218
      492219 492225 492227 493231 495234 496236 499240 500241
      503241
 1.50 346754 346752 345750 343751 342752 341753 340754 340755
      339758 340760 341760 343760 344759 345759 345756 346755
      346754
 1.50 288831 285829 284828 280828 276828 274827 271828 269829
      268833 270835 273836 275837 279837 282836 284835 287833
      288831
 2.00 500235 500232 499230 499228 498227 498224 497224 496222
      495221 494223 493225 494228 494230 495232 496233 497234
      498235 499236 500235
 2.00 279834 278833 277833 276834 277834 279834 279834

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.