Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 241901
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 25/0000 UTC THRU JUL 26/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

ANOTHER FAST MOVING MCS IS LIKELY TO EMANATE FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN
MT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE DIFLUENT REGION AHEAD OF THE VIGOROUS
SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE...WITH
SLIGHT VARIATION AS TO THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION INTO
THE WARM SECTOR OVER SOUTHERN MT. WPC FOLLOWED CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG WITH THE 12Z NSSL WRF...WHICH WAS AVERAGE
OR SLIGHTLY AGGRESSIVE IN SOUTHWARD EXTENT.

OF PERHAPS GREATER CONCERN FROM A PRECIPITATION STANDPOINT IS THE
ACTIVITY UNDER THE DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS...WITH WARM
ADVECTION AT THE NOSE OF A 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET BEING THE PRIMARY
DRIVER. GIVEN STRONG CAPPING OVER MUCH OF SD/NE...AND ONLY HIGH
BASED THUNDER WITH LITTLE RAINFALL ROLLING OFF THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES...A BROAD REGION OF STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BUILD
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS...EVENTUALLY BEING RELEASED ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM EASTERN SD INTO MN/IA. SOUTHWARD EXTENT
MAY BE LIMITED BY DRIER AIR AND LESSER INSTABILITY OVER
MISSOURI...WHILE EASTWARD EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED BY CONTINUAL
REINFORCEMENT OF OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING CONVECTION NEAR THE SD/MN
BORDER. THIS MAY RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO DISCUSSED IN THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK. WITH TIME...THE VEERING LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD LEAD TO EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THE RAINFALL AXIS DEEPER
INTO MN/IA. FOR OUR QPF WE BASED THE FIRST SIX HOUR LARGELY ON
OBSERVATIONS...THEN BLENDED INTO THE 12Z NSSL WRF FORECAST...AND
THEN BACK TO WPC CONTINUITY.


...WESTERN U.S...

A SWATH OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE AND WEST OF THE RIDGE
CENTER WILL BE SWEPT UP INTO EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME ENHANCEMENT OF MID LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE UPPER
LOW BRUSHING THIS AREA TO THE NORTHWEST...YIELDING A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT OUTPUT FROM THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THE TERRAIN IN
NORTHERN AZ SHOULD ALSO BE ACTIVE GIVEN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...AS
EVIDENCED IN THE 12Z FLAGSTAFF RAOB. THE PW PLUME CHANGES VERY
LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY TO THE NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...ALTHOUGH
NAM/SREF CAPE VALUES DIPS SLIGHTLY...AND MID LEVEL ASCENT IS LESS
FOCUSED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FOCUS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TOWARD
AZ/NV/CA WITH TIME...AS DISCUSSED IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK.


...LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT THIS
TIME REMAINS STUCK IN PLACE BETWEEN TWO LARGE RIDGE AXES CENTERED
OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
SLOWLY SHEAR OVER TIME WITH RELATIVELY WEAK 850 MB FLOW TODAY.
CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR THE CNTRL GULF COAST BUT THE CONTINUED
DISORGANIZATION OF THE UPPER FEATURE SHOULD KEEP OVERALL RAINFALL
SCATTERED IN NATURE.


BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 26/00Z
 0.01 561054 561046 561036 558023 553011 547997 537974 528955
      527951 525944 522929 518915 512901 510897 505893 496890
      489886 483879 481874 478869 474866 469865 462863 457860
      453859 448862 440868 436870 432869 428865 424862 415858
      412861 410865 408872 402873 395871 391867 387864 384865
      393881 395887 393894 392899 393902 392906 391911 391915
      393921 394924 393928 394933 398936 400934 402937 406942
      407947 409952 416959 424965 433970 441975 445976 448978
      448981 451000 453014 456017 457024 458031 458037 463065
      466076 469090 469098 470100 472098 474093 476084 479072
      483062 486058 491054 498054 501057 503059 503062 500067
      499072 498082 497102 497110 499118 498125 495127 489134
      487138 485141 486144 489147 491151 490155 492167 493174
      496179 501189 507195 510200 511205 516206 520206 523209
      530218 534213 536205 542198 544190 544185 544175 544167
      544161 546158 549149 550139 549133 549126 550118 553105
      555097 556086 557065 561054
 0.01 519276 521265 521258 520255 516248 513242 513237 510235
      508232 506226 503220 500214 499211 496208 493206 488205
      483204 476206 455219 475219 478219 482220 487221 489224
      492227 493230 496237 499244 499249 501254 498253 496251
      493248 492245 489239 481236 477234 475235 473238 474242
      475245 478247 483249 485252 487259 491266 499279 505282
      508283 511282 516279 519276
 0.01 502752 501746 499741 495735 492727 488722 484712 481705
      476698 474696 470698 457706 455708 453713 451716 451721
      451723 453728 455730 458730 462729 466730 472733 477738
      480744 484753 488758 496759 499758 501754 502752
 0.01 411103 412097 411091 410088 408088 404087 403085 408079
      412069 413057 413050 411044 408041 407035 403032 400032
      396039 392042 386043 383046 379047 371045 357056 357062
      358066 358069 356073 352075 354082 355086 354089 349092
      345093 343091 337084 334080 330079 328081 330086 335088
      336092 339102 344109 345114 346117 346121 337137 335142
      333146 332151 337154 344158 355160 364160 371153 375146
      379142 382140 387134 391130 393125 397116 399112 403110
      409107 411103
 0.01 390691 387683 384679 381678 376679 370681 363688 353698
      343711 332722 321737 313749 308756 303761 298766 293773
      287779 285789 287793 289795 291797 287799 278801 266800
      261802 258799 259795 261791 262787 260782 257778 255777
      251777 245781 240787 238791 238796 240817 242821 245823
      248825 252824 255825 265834 272845 279860 280871 279884
      280898 286917 293929 296937 303933 307931 310933 319918
      326905 331889 333879 334866 338830 339821 341818 344819
      349818 352815 355811 357806 362792 367785 372779 375771
      378762 384741 388725 390716 389705 390691
 0.01 374109 371107 368107 364108 362108 359107 355109 355113
      358115 362115 364114 367114 369113 372111 374109
 0.01 332162 329158 326155 321153 315153 311154 308157 309160
      312162 316164 321165 327166 330164 332162
 0.01 327124 326119 327114 326106 322104 317102 309099 305097
      302097 299101 298107 298112 300116 304123 310130 315132
      320133 325126 327124
 0.01 334057 331055 330055 327055 325056 327057 328057 330058
      332058 334057
 0.01 301844 301842 301840 301838 301836 300838 300840 300842
      300844 301846 301844
 0.01 293109 294103 294098 291091 289088 289081 285076 278071
      273065 268060 261055 252054 243053 235056 231061 230066
      230071 237075 243080 249085 254090 261094 268098 276100
      280101 284105 289110 293109
 0.01 300017 300010 298004 295999 291995 279991 277986 273989
      273997 275001 277003 277008 278014 274026 276032 280036
      282037 285036 286034 290033 292028 292023 294016 298017
      300017
 0.01 299949 297948 296949 295949 294950 293952 292953 291954
      291956 292958 294958 296956 297954 298954 299952 299950
      299949
 0.01 259006 258004 256002 254000 251998 249997 247998 245000
      245004 245006 247010 249011 251013 254012 256011 258008
      259006
 0.25 553056 553044 552034 549025 546017 540005 536998 531994
      522986 510978 504976 501977 499980 498984 499988 500992
      497994 490994 485997 481999 478999 476997 475993 471978
      469972 471962 470956 467948 465946 462947 457954 450943
      448938 446930 440916 442912 441907 436901 426896 420891
      414893 409897 406903 403913 404919 405923 411938 414942
      417949 420954 425959 432963 439966 445967 450966 455964
      457971 459979 459991 459004 460008 464010 467016 469024
      474028 477034 481039 483041 486040 491035 498036 508047
      513048 516054 524065 534078 537084 542088 546084 548074
      551063 553056
 0.25 544138 543128 539120 532115 527110 520104 518102 513101
      510104 508108 507113 506120 506126 507132 510141 510165
      510172 510178 514186 519193 523193 526190 530183 536179
      538175 539167 539156 542147 544138
 0.25 503273 503270 503268 503267 503265 502263 501262 499262
      497262 497263 497264 497265 498268 499270 501272 502273
      503273
 0.25 522957 520955 520954 519952 518950 518949 517947 516947
      515945 514944 513947 514948 514949 515952 515953 516955
      517957 518959 520959 522957
 0.25 486949 482941 477934 475929 474922 470912 466905 463907
      463913 462918 462923 463930 467940 472940 475942 477948
      480952 484953 486949
 0.25 401069 400068 399069 398071 399072 401072 401071 401069
 0.25 384699 384694 383689 380687 376688 371692 366696 350717
      342728 336739 329751 323761 322765 322770 323776 327781
      328790 328794 327797 327804 332808 335813 337811 337807
      339798 342794 348791 356780 359774 361767 371741 376727
      380714 384699
 0.25 389079 388076 385074 383073 382069 380068 377069 376071
      376073 376075 376079 377082 379084 382084 384083 387081
      389079
 0.25 360136 360135 358134 356135 356136 355137 355140 357141
      358140 359138 359137 360136
 0.25 313111 311109 310108 308107 307108 307110 307111 309113
      310113 311114 312113 313113 313111
 0.25 318873 318868 317866 314864 313864 311867 310869 309873
      309877 309880 308884 311884 312882 312881 312877 313875
      316874 318873
 0.25 314849 313847 312847 310847 310848 311850 313852 314849
 0.25 304903 304901 304899 304898 302897 300897 299899 298900
      298901 298903 299904 300905 300906 302907 303905 304904
      304903
 0.25 291814 290812 289812 288812 286812 284813 282813 281814
      280815 279815 277817 277819 279821 279822 281823 283822
      285821 285820 286818 288817 289816 290816 291814
 0.25 285028 285026 285025 285024 283022 281023 281024 280026
      281028 283030 285028 285028
 0.25 274087 275084 274082 271079 269075 266072 264069 260066
      257063 255065 255071 255077 257081 259084 263086 267088
      273088 274087
 0.25 262811 262809 261809 260808 258808 256809 258811 260812
      262811 262811
 0.50 541140 541134 539126 531120 524114 520112 518110 515111
      512114 511123 514137 517148 520159 523164 526165 529164
      532162 534155 539145 541140
 0.50 543060 543050 543043 542037 541027 537018 531010 524010
      521017 513017 504023 503027 504031 509039 513043 518049
      529059 534064 536066 540065 543060
 0.50 493023 494018 493015 491013 488011 486012 484015 483017
      481022 483026 484029 485032 487033 489031 491030 493025
      493023
 0.50 467996 468994 468991 468989 467986 466984 465982 464982
      463984 463986 463989 463991 463993 463994 465996 465997
      467997 467996
 0.50 446959 446954 445950 442942 442933 438926 433916 433911
      431909 426905 423899 418895 416896 414899 415905 412911
      410914 409919 413935 421947 424952 428957 433960 440963
      444962 446959
 0.50 377703 376697 373697 370699 367703 357718 347732 343738
      338747 335754 334759 336765 338770 341771 343779 346781
      349779 354771 356762 360753 364745 367737 369727 374718
      377703
 0.50 335804 335802 336800 335798 334795 332794 330795 330796
      329798 329800 330802 331803 332804 333805 334804 335804
 1.00 536137 535131 532129 529127 525124 521122 519125 521128
      524133 525137 528142 531143 534142 536137 536137
 1.00 434940 433933 429928 425923 423921 424916 422914 419913
      415918 417924 419931 421937 424940 430942 432942 434940
 1.00 358747 358743 357739 356739 353740 351742 350745 349749
      347752 348756 349760 351760 353758 355755 356753 357750
      358747

$$




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