Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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593
FXUS04 KWBC 122101
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EST THU JAN 12 2017


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 13/0000 UTC THRU JAN 16/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...

THE LAST IN THE CURRENT SERIES OF SYSTEMS BRINGING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION FROM CALIFORNIA DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE SINKING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DAY 1.  THIS CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A NARROW TAP OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES DRAWN INTO ITS SOUTH
SIDE AND IMPACTING SOUTHERN CA---WESTERN AZ INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS FROM THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST RANGE AND
INLAND TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN NV---SOUTHERN
UT AND INTO THE ROCKIES OF COLORADO.  THERE IS BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH QPF AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST RANGE
AND THROUGH THE COLORADO ROCKIES---WITH MORE DIVERGENCE IN DETAILS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN MORE REMOVED FROM THE FAVORED OROGRAPHIC
AREAS.  DAY 1 QPF FAVORED A MIX OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
ARW---NAMX CONEST AND HI RES ENSEMBLES FOR QPF DETAILS.

SOUTHERN PLAINS ITO THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY

THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS---LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY
WILL BE STRENGTHENING DAY 1.  THIS WILL BE SUPPORTING INCREASING
OVERRUNNING OF THE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR AND AN EXPANDING AREA OF
OVERRUNNING PRECIP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO
VALLEY AND OH VALLEY.  WITH LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE ACROSS
THESE REGIONS---THE BEGINNING OF A MULTI DAY FREEZING RAIN EVENT
ON TAP FOR DAY 1.  FOR THIS PERIOD---MAX THREAT FROM NORTHEASTERN
OK INTO SOUTHERN MO---SOUTHERN IL---FAR WESTERN KY.  SEE THE
LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

NORTHEAST---MID ATLANTIC---CENTRAL APPALACHIANS---UPPER OH VALLEY

THE NORTHEASTERN EXTENT TO THE ARCTIC FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST---PUSHING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AND SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/OH VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL WILL LIMIT PRECIP
POTENTIAL---WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR LIGHT TOTALS---SAVE FOR
MODERATE TOTALS INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WHERE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL ENHANCE UVVS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS.

DAYS 2 AND 3...

...SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST IN THE BAJA OF CA ON
SATURDAY...TOWARDS NM/TX ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH IMPACTS
THE TIMING OF QPF MOVING NORTHWARD CROSS THE PLAINS BY DAY 3. THE
ECMWF HAD BEEN A BIT OF A QUICK OUTLIER...BUT THE 12Z RUN DID SLOW
DOWN TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT CONSENSUS. SOME QPF
DIFFERENCES HOWEVER REMAIN...AND WILL EB DISCUSSED A BIT MORE
BELOW.

MORE COMING SOON


...OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC...

QUICK WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN AN
AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL EB ADVECTED
INTO THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE IN BETWEEN THE DEEP TROUGHING MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS AND THE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITHIN THE AXIS OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WPC QPF CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER CONTINUE TO SEE
A SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE POSITION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS/FRONTAL
ZONE...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE QPF
AXIS...ESPECIALLY IN THE ECMWF/UKMET. SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS
TREND...AS MAY HAVE TO SHIFT OUR FORECAST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ON
FUTURE SHIFTS. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE EXPECTED QPF ENHANCEMENT OVER
THE FAVORED UPSLOPE TERRAIN OF WV...WHERE PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD ENHANCE AMOUNTS.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

ORRISON/SANTORELLI

24HR QP VT 14/00Z
 0.01 515277 518262 517257 515253 506249 504260 497252 494249
      492248 489253 489258 491268 495278 497284 500287 503289
      507287 509285 512281 515277
 0.01 504649 504643 501639 498633 494626 487624 481623 471627
      466632 458635 453636 449641 441655 439657 439662 440671
      445683 446689 445694 442701 440711 436716 427718 424720
      421724 416740 414747 410754 403767 390787 386795 381800
      379798 376798 375789 371788 371791 368795 367801 367809
      364818 361823 357829 353826 351826 350830 347845 343849
      342854 340858 337863 337868 335871 333880 329886 327889
      324891 316896 313898 309899 306901 301901 293901 291902
      289905 290912 296916 298918 299923 297928 297933 295935
      292941 293944 295948 290951 286958 285962 282963 266970
      258971 256974 256979 275992 277999 280005 289016 301021
      309022 314022 318024 330032 333036 335041 339045 344046
      347044 351044 351041 356024 369005 373988 374983 375980
      379972 382965 386957 390948 392939 396922 397913 396901
      396892 397883 397877 395869 394857 393849 391840 390834
      390830 394822 397812 399804 402797 412767 415762 418759
      425746 429740 433739 434743 427750 427753 427759 429766
      427770 425775 423780 416792 414795 415800 418804 425796
      428791 431783 433776 434772 436769 443755 449752 454750
      455747 456737 456732 456729 458727 475728 485720 489716
      492706 496691 499678 503662 504649
 0.01 495843 494832 494827 492825 488823 486823 480824 475827
      470833 463840 459834 455827 456820 454813 454808 455805
      455798 453798 449798 448795 445790 442790 440793 439801
      440810 442817 449829 452833 457837 461843 462846 462852
      462866 464869 465874 465881 465885 464894 467899 471903
      473900 474897 478885 481877 483869 485862 489856 491854
      493848 495843
 0.01 449736 450733 448732 447733 445734 445735 444737 444739
      446740 447739 447738 449737 449736
 0.01 449966 449959 447954 442947 437940 433933 431928 428926
      424926 422931 423945 424954 426962 428966 430971 433971
      440976 447971 449966
 0.01 445031 446019 443008 439996 436989 428973 426971 424969
      423970 421978 420991 422002 423009 423017 427024 428028
      429030 427032 422034 419045 418048 415050 409051 405050
      399050 396052 390058 385060 383063 382068 380065 373062
      371061 368061 367068 367073 360110 359116 355116 351117
      349116 345111 343107 342109 344114 346116 349119 348123
      347128 344128 342126 331124 321123 314126 309128 303133
      298138 296141 294148 288154 285162 287169 291174 299177
      308179 314180 317179 326179 336179 340182 342184 342186
      345193 347194 349192 351190 354192 358191 360192 361195
      374205 390207 394206 396203 398194 396186 395181 396177
      398171 400167 403163 405162 410153 410140 407132 402129
      400126 401123 404118 407117 411118 432045 433038 434035
      437036 440036 445031
 0.01 372222 372218 370216 367215 364213 362212 358211 357208
      356206 353206 353210 355212 356214 359217 361218 364219
      366221 369223 372222
 0.01 363177 362175 360173 359172 357172 357171 355169 354169
      352170 351171 351172 350174 349177 349179 350181 352182
      353182 354181 356181 357180 358180 359181 361179 363177
 0.01 333939 333935 332932 332926 330922 327923 323926 316932
      313936 310941 303945 298949 297954 296957 297960 298963
      301964 310958 317953 328949 332940 333939
 0.01 300789 298785 293786 286791 282793 277792 269789 256791
      249796 246798 244803 242807 240811 240816 239820 241823
      244824 246823 248820 250814 251810 254807 258803 263802
      272804 272807 271809 271816 276824 279826 284825 287823
      290818 294809 299802 300799 299794 300789
 0.25 411070 408066 403063 394068 391066 388067 385072 382074
      380071 375068 373069 373073 374080 376085 376089 375093
      376099 385097 392097 394091 396087 400083 406074 411070
 0.25 389153 383124 384114 384110 382107 377110 373113 369118
      363120 363125 362129 360132 351140 342145 337148 333154
      328156 321155 306155 304156 303159 305164 317171 324173
      331173 337174 341179 344178 344171 343167 340165 335161
      338159 344159 357157 371160 377163 381163 383160 389153
 0.25 390813 390809 389806 386806 377812 374820 371828 369838
      365848 362856 360867 360879 360887 359892 359899 358903
      356912 353922 349932 348937 348940 350939 353936 357927
      359923 361922 361925 358934 354940 348945 346952 346957
      346965 349969 352969 366958 371953 375947 380938 382932
      382927 382902 382895 380891 378893 377900 376898 376891
      377882 381859 385841 387824 390813
 0.50 402074 401072 399071 397072 396073 397076 399077 400076
      401075 402074
 0.50 394080 395078 395076 394074 392073 392072 391070 391069
      389070 388070 388072 388074 388075 388077 388078 388079
      389082 390082 391082 392082 393081 394080
 0.50 388088 387087 387086 386085 385083 384082 383083 384086
      386088 387089 388088
 0.50 385825 384820 381821 377830 375839 372851 369860 369871
      370880 374871 377862 379850 381841 384832 385825
 0.50 379078 379076 378074 378073 376072 375073 375075 375078
      376078 377079 379078
 0.50 369147 367145 364144 360145 358145 355145 352146 349147
      347148 345151 348154 352154 355153 358152 360152 363151
      365150 369149 369147
 0.50 373936 374931 374927 373924 371926 368932 366936 363943
      362945 359947 355950 356953 358952 364951 368947 371942
      373936
 0.50 337170 336167 332164 327162 322160 316159 311159 307160
      307162 309164 312166 317168 321169 324169 328170 331171
      337170 337170
 1.00 330168 330166 327164 323163 321162 318162 316161 312163
      316165 317166 319166 322167 323167 325167 328168 330168

24HR QP VT 15/00Z
 0.01 511879 512871 510865 508861 505858 498854 500845 500837
      497832 492828 489828 485832 481834 476833 465836 459839
      450855 451857 455855 461849 465846 469850 472858 474863
      476871 476872 479870 481870 483875 486876 486879 489882
      493883 496884 500886 508885 511879
 0.01 459812 459810 459808 459805 459803 458802 457801 456800
      455800 453801 453804 453806 453808 454809 455811 455813
      456813 457813 459813 459812
 0.01 442868 436856 434849 433842 430835 426833 426842 428848
      429852 430855 431862 434869 430873 429876 429882 431888
      432897 434904 437901 439895 441880 439872 442868
 0.01 423060 422056 418055 412059 405063 403064 398064 393061
      390058 385055 381052 380049 378047 380044 384038 388033
      391027 396020 399014 402992 395989 394979 398959 401937
      404911 404897 404887 407849 408839 409830 411807 412786
      411774 409761 405749 404743 401739 389728 367721 361728
      357735 353740 350747 349751 350758 350764 352764 357765
      358770 356781 356787 355793 349799 345807 342810 339814
      340823 342824 343826 342829 337834 339837 343847 349859
      348866 346870 343877 340886 336893 341897 347890 351883
      354883 353886 352890 348908 342920 337917 333922 329928
      327929 327926 327919 316928 310931 306934 308937 312937
      315936 321935 325933 327929 328936 328945 325954 323960
      320964 315964 312964 309966 301966 298968 294968 286969
      275970 265970 257971 255970 256974 257978 259981 266986
      273993 279997 284999 280003 279006 276009 274011 274015
      274019 277020 279022 284023 290020 295019 299021 299030
      304030 306029 311030 310034 309040 311042 317046 324051
      325055 324058 321061 313068 301076 295080 288083 279091
      275096 272104 269110 271118 270124 271128 275134 278138
      280142 285147 290154 298161 303167 306169 311170 325177
      330177 331184 342176 345178 347176 348167 348161 349158
      351157 358161 364159 369151 369145 365142 366140 369138
      372134 381122 390109 395101 398094 402090 405082 409077
      413075 415073 421065 423060
 0.01 358145 357143 355142 353144 355146 356146 358145
 0.01 353146 351144 349144 348145 349146 351147 353146
 0.01 311805 310799 308796 305799 301802 300804 298809 295813
      295817 294820 298822 301819 305816 306814 308810 311805
      311805
 0.01 303920 303916 303912 302909 301905 299903 299901 297899
      293899 293901 293906 294908 295910 297914 299916 301918
      303920 303920
 0.01 279790 277786 274784 269791 267790 265787 265782 262778
      260779 255785 251794 248800 249804 254805 258805 261803
      265800 268800 271802 274801 277797 277792 279790
 0.25 397800 397795 395791 391787 387783 383783 380784 377790
      374796 371803 369810 369814 370819 374817 378818 380820
      383827 385836 386845 386850 388852 388849 390845 390840
      390831 393814 397801 397800
 0.25 390084 390076 387071 378064 373060 368061 365063 365068
      365074 364082 361087 360089 360094 361096 360100 359105
      360112 366116 371115 374114 376111 379107 383102 385097
      388090 390084
 0.25 388947 389932 387918 384907 383895 382888 378886 374881
      372877 369876 368881 365890 363895 361900 360907 359914
      356924 352932 342950 337957 334967 334973 332978 328983
      327988 330998 330010 330021 328035 327040 327045 331048
      336049 346052 352053 355053 357059 356062 356065 360069
      363068 364065 361060 359051 360047 360040 360037 362032
      367024 372012 376005 377002 377999 374999 371996 373989
      377979 381968 384960 388947
 0.25 370864 370862 371860 370858 370856 369854 367854 366856
      366858 366860 367862 367865 368865 369865 370864
 0.25 343171 344169 344167 343164 342162 342161 341159 340159
      339159 338161 338163 338165 338166 338168 339169 340170
      341171 342171 343171
 0.25 345112 345109 345107 344105 343104 341103 339103 337103
      336104 335106 336108 336110 337111 338113 340114 342113
      344113 345112
 0.25 328161 327152 325145 327143 327136 325130 324126 323122
      320117 316109 312104 308102 305102 299103 292106 287112
      284119 284123 284126 291140 295146 300150 312158 319162
      323163 327163 328161
 0.50 391803 391801 390799 390797 389797 388795 386795 384797
      383798 381800 380802 380805 380807 382809 384811 386812
      387812 388810 389810 390808 390806 390805 391803
 0.50 377963 376957 373951 372946 373938 373932 375925 376911
      377905 376899 373894 369896 363921 361926 362934 362938
      361943 358949 356955 356962 355967 354970 352971 346973
      343976 341980 342986 345990 348993 350998 351004 354010
      356010 357008 360003 366994 370985 374973 377963
 0.50 338043 338041 337039 335040 333040 332040 331041 330042
      331045 333045 335045 336044 338043
 0.50 316138 312133 310128 310122 308119 305118 299120 295122
      299125 301127 300129 298131 297134 299140 304142 310142
      315140 316138

24HR QP VT 16/00Z
 0.01 536218 538209 538202 537195 535190 529180 522172 518169
      514168 510171 508173 508177 509183 512189 516198 520210
      522216 524222 527226 531225 534223 536218
 0.01 518273 520260 519249 518244 515241 510235 507232 504232
      501235 500240 502250 500253 498251 496247 492240 487241
      477256 473264 471267 469273 471282 474286 478288 480290
      483291 491292 505289 511286 516278 518273
 0.01 465707 464701 461699 457700 455703 450709 447717 445725
      443732 442742 444745 446744 450736 452728 456722 461716
      464709 465707
 0.01 430280 432270 430262 429255 427247 424241 419240 412242
      406241 402242 398241 392239 385240 383242 382246 380255
      379259 380264 382270 387275 393278 396280 399281 413284
      426283 430280
 0.01 422982 423962 423954 421947 418939 418928 417909 417889
      415881 415869 405838 404836 403832 401823 401814 401808
      401803 403799 405792 401778 400773 401768 402762 405747
      407738 407733 408730 408721 407712 392695 383687 374696
      365707 356714 347723 344729 347736 351750 351757 350763
      349765 353765 360765 363767 364771 362779 363789 365797
      366800 366805 364811 351835 353842 354852 353858 353866
      355872 355880 355889 355895 356899 356904 357914 357916
      355918 353918 344919 339923 338930 328934 322937 316939
      313939 311938 310935 308934 304934 301936 297939 291938
      283938 277941 275943 275947 275952 277954 281956 283958
      283961 281964 279973 275987 281996 283999 282001 278005
      281019 285031 286033 287039 287047 288055 288060 286063
      281066 273066 266067 263068 262071 260074 260079 259087
      259091 260094 263097 271106 276111 280116 291138 295144
      300149 304153 306153 309151 318143 322140 325135 327131
      332132 338131 345133 351136 357135 362132 368128 375125
      379121 383118 387122 392120 395119 396116 399109 401102
      399097 398094 398088 400081 396066 400060 405057 407054
      408051 410044 414025 415020 416017 417008 420994 421986
      422982
 0.01 398106 397103 395101 393101 392103 391103 390105 389107
      388109 387111 386113 387115 389115 390114 391113 392112
      394111 395110 396108 396107 398106
 0.01 290816 290814 288812 288810 287808 285808 284808 283808
      282811 283812 284815 284817 284819 285819 286821 287821
      288820 289820 289818 290816 290816
 0.01 270800 270796 269793 266792 264792 260792 256793 255793
      251795 250797 249800 250803 254803 257802 259803 263803
      265801 268801 270800
 0.25 516270 517265 516262 516259 514256 512252 511251 508251
      507253 508256 509259 509262 510265 512268 514272 516270
 0.25 409949 410934 409922 408908 406895 402882 400875 398871
      392864 389860 389854 388849 385844 382836 382829 383824
      384817 386814 389810 391806 390803 387803 385804 383807
      376813 373815 370814 366817 364821 363825 365826 368829
      367841 368857 369863 372866 375870 375877 375885 373890
      372896 370908 368917 365929 362940 356949 352958 348967
      344970 341971 337974 332973 323972 317974 314977 312980
      312986 312991 310995 306998 302001 300005 299011 300017
      302021 308028 310036 305044 307049 308054 305065 304076
      304078 307079 312081 315086 313087 307086 304083 298078
      286075 275073 269074 266076 266082 268087 281100 290104
      297109 307112 317115 324116 331117 335117 340115 343111
      345105 347102 350101 361103 368108 371109 375106 378095
      381090 382086 383073 382066 379061 375058 375054 382047
      384044 386040 388026 392017 397007 401997 407973 408960
      409949
 0.25 366115 366112 365112 364114 365116 366115
 0.50 400968 401959 401952 401934 398919 397912 396910 392909
      389913 387918 386921 382920 381914 377911 373914 372921
      372929 355974 319995 313004 311007 311011 313017 314024
      316031 318036 320041 322046 323052 321061 318065 315070
      315072 318073 323075 327079 326088 328094 329097 332098
      337095 341091 353091 362089 371082 375079 378075 378071
      375069 372069 369070 364071 362067 361063 359061 361058
      368050 371045 375040 378028 383018 389007 392001 393995
      400968
 0.50 355060 354060 352059 350059 349059 350059 352060 354060
      355060
 0.50 327109 328107 328105 327103 325103 323103 321104 321105
      320106 320108 321108 322110 324110 326110 327109
 0.50 302095 300090 297084 294081 287079 281077 276078 272079
      271081 273087 278090 284092 289091 295094 300097 302095
 1.00 385993 386986 385979 382976 378977 372983 366991 362994
      358995 353997 349995 344994 340997 335005 332008 333013
      329023 328025 331027 331030 329042 329047 333050 343049
      349048 352046 357038 363031 368023 374016 378013 380008
      383000 385993
 1.00 339069 339067 337066 335067 333067 331067 330068 331070
      333070 335070 337070 338070 339069
 1.50 367014 367007 363004 351004 347006 347009 349011 351014
      349018 339023 337027 337034 335040 331045 332047 335047
      339045 346039 349034 351029 354024 357021 362019 365016
      367014
 2.00 348028 349026 350024 349022 348022 347022 345023 343023
      342024 341026 340028 340030 339032 339034 339037 340039
      342037 342036 344035 344033 345033 346032 347031 348029
      348028
 2.00 337043 337041 335043 334045 335045 337043 337043


$$





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