Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 242038
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
337 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 25/0000 UTC THRU JAN 28/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

THE DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST WILL ALLOW
FOR AN UPTICK IN PCPN ASSOCIATED WITHIN THE CCB (ALONG THE MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS)...WITH THE HIGHEST ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE...MAINLY INTO EVENING...ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE 700 MB LOW WHERE THE DEEP/MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
(AND HIGHEST LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX/PW ANOMALIES)AND WEAKEST
LOW-MID LEVEL STATIC STABILITY WILL LINGER A WHILE LONGER. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST SUITE OF WWD PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.


...NRN PLAINS INTO THE PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...

AN AREA OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF CLIPPER
SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AT LEAST THROUGH DAY
1 (00Z MON 01/26)... THE 12Z MODELS ARE REASONABLY TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH TRACK OF THE RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...MODEL QPFS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE AXIS OF HIGHER (0.25+
INCH AMOUNTS) WILL BE DRAPED. WPC CONTINUED TO FOLLOW AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH HERE...WHICH FOLLOWS WELL FROM A CONTINUITY
STANDPOINT...LED BY THE 12Z GFS. THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD...
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER LIMITED DESPITE THE
RATHER ROBUST UPPER FORCING...SO OVERALL AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN .10 AND .25 INCH OVER MOST AFFECTED
AREAS...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS (.25 TO UNDER .50 INCH) ACROSS
CENTRAL IL/IN. AGAIN...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SUITE OF WWD
PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL
OVER THIS REGION.

DAYS 2/3...

...OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY MON WITH A
WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.  LATE SUN INTO EARLY
MON...LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND
THE LARGE SCALE FORCING AFFORDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH MAY COMBINE
TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OH
VALLEY..CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MON...ASSUMING
A NEGATIVE TILT AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...MODEL SPREAD INCREASES.  THIS ALONG WITH A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM ALOFT AND A MORE WESTERLY SURFACE LOW TRACK HAS INCREASED
THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
COASTS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.  WPC AMOUNTS ON DAY 3 REFLECT THE
WESTWARD TREND...SHIFTING AMOUNTS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS INDICATED ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND ON THE BACKSIDE OF WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE WILL BE A
DEEP SURFACE LOW.  WPC AMOUNTS ARE A RESULT OF A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/UKMET AND THE 00Z ECMWF.  WPC DISCOUNTED THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH
AS NOTED IN THE PMDHMD APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK PROBLEMS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE AND IS AT THIS
POINT A SOUTHERLY OUTLIER AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS.  REFER
TO THE WPC WINTER WEATHER SUITE OF PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS CONCERNING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOWS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON DAY 3.

...CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN...

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF OF THE COAST OF BAJA IS FORECAST TO LIFT
TO THE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CA BY EARLY TUE...SHEARING INTO AN OPEN
WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL RAISE PWS TO
ANOMALOUS LEVELS...FUELING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT-MODERATE
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION.  WPC AMOUNTS REFLECT A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND THE LATEST ECMWF RUNS...DISCOUNTING THE NAM WHICH WAS SLOWER
AND MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

HURLEY/PEREIRA

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 26/00Z
 0.01 502313 493314 490315 487314 482312 481307 482301 483289
      480273 478259 475245 475241 475234 477235 479239 482240
      484237 489234 490229 489224 487220 483214 483207 488205
      495206 500210 503213 506213 509207 509202 507201 500189
      496183 490178 480170 460156 453152 451144 453141 458137
      462131 464129 464125 460119 453119 446118 438116 433119
      427115 423110 418108 420104 425103 428100 427096 424092
      424089 434094 441095 446094 454094 460096 467099 476101
      485108 486111 484113 481117 480120 477121 480124 483124
      488129 494132 498138 503143 513149 517153 521158 525164
      530169 539182 542187 542198
 0.01 481604 500632 501638 500648 498657 495665 488681 485687
      483689 481689 478686 479677 480672 480669 478670 472677
      469681 465685 463689 461694 460697 462701 464702 467702
      469704 468708 467715 463723 459727 454742 446759 442764
      437772 434780 430788 428792 427798 426804 429807 434811
      435811 435816 435821 431824 427822 423823 420825 419830
      421838 422849 425858 430864 433871 436875 440875 445881
      448890 455909 459919 462928 466932 467937 474947 490970
      493974 495977 500984 509995 512987 517980 520978 525978
      531984 537992 542001 546009 551020 553029 554034 553039
      550047 548050 546051 521040 519041 515041 506040 490033
      473026 464021 459020 457018 454018 441012 437012 434009
      430006 427004 425000 422992 417987 412980 405963 402954
      397944 393943 387943 379948 372952 367952 364952 364949
      360942 360932 360927 362924 360921 357919 347908 346905
      345899 346890 348880 349868 353857 354852 358848 369837
      381825 384818 384814 380815 366819 364821 359821 363816
      369811 375807 386794 390792 394789 399781 402781 405783
      410783 414781 422774 424771 425769 425765 422761 420758
      419751 420747 422744 429742 433741 435739 439740 444738
      448737 450734 446732 442732 438732 432734 427735 425732
      426729 430728 439724 442721 444718 443716 439716 441714
      446711 450708 454703 454700 452696 450694 446694 440698
      429706 422710 420712 415713 408717 404718 401715 396710
      394708 395701 397691 400678 407665 433625 481604
 0.01 518230 518228 517225 517222 516219 515221 515224 514227
      515229 517232 518230
 0.01 453081 453076 453073 452071 448068 447067 443067 441068
      441072 441074 443077 445080 448081 451081 453081
 0.01 443041 441038 440040 439040 439043 441043 443041 443041
 0.01 287079 280069 275065 273063 270062 259057 245052 240048
      238041 237037 237033 233035 231041 230045 228048 225064
      224072 224080 222100 220116 224130 227134 232135 246132
      255126 261122 265117 265113 264111 260106 250097 248093
      249089 251087 256088 258086 266087 277084 287079
 0.25 445632 455621 480612 491633 490644 483654 475662 464670
      455676 449679 441680 438677 435671 435657 436650 438643
      445632
 0.25 525258 521255 518249 511241 505233 502229 499228 497231
      498237 496244 491243 488243 487246 490257 490263 490273
      490286 493292 498291 502291 508292 511293
 0.25 534206 535201 533192 529183 523172 520169 516166 512166
      508162 505160 501162 500166 500170 503176 509183 512187
      515192 520204 523208 526212 530213 534209 534206
 0.25 491142 491140 490139 490137 489136 487134 486133 484132
      483131 481130 479130 478130 476131 476134 477136 478137
      479138 480139 481140 482141 483142 485143 487144 488144
      490143 491142
 0.25 413894 412877 410859 407845 405838 403836 400837 398841
      397848 394863 394871 394876 393879 389882 387886 387890
      389897 394901 399903 406901 409902 411900 413894
 0.50 522267 519265 518260 515253 511246 508243 504242 501244
      499249 496257 494261 493266 494275 496284 502284 509283
      514280 516280
 0.50 527196 526193 525188 524184 523181 521178 520177 518177
      518181 519185 520188 521192 523194 524196 527196
 0.50 486635 484627 481621 477621 474622 471624 461626 457627
      453632 450636 448643 447647 446653 447661 447665 450667
      454668 458667 467662 474654 481644 486635
 1.00 511262 510260 510258 509259 509262 511263 511262
 1.00 503275 503273 504271 505268 505266 505263 505260 504259
      503258 502259 501259 499261 498263 497265 497268 497270
      497273 498273 499275 500276 502276 503275

24HR QP VT 27/00Z
 0.01 526252 527243 529237 534225 536216 538210 540197 540189
      537183 533181 531176 529169 526165 517158 513158 511162
      511168 507172 511177 511184 513189 516193 518200 519206
      522219 522223 521226 518232 516235 510236 508253 507262
      505268 501274 498276 497284 497292 502295 507296 513288
 0.01 561991 562980 562968 561949 557936 555930 552925 547920
      544914 541910 539903 535888 532883 530878 523867 521849
      516840 512835 509835 507833 501834 498835 496837 490836
      487833 484831 482831 476832 471833 466836 454842 446848
      443851 439856 436861 434868 435873 436875 439880 439884
      436885 430885 426890 423894 420907 420911 422914 426917
      430919 434919 436921 443921 448923 452935 455942 455945
      459947 461950 466952 470952 472954 477955 480955 482958
      479964 482980 485983 489985 512987 522992 526994 531996
      540001 545004 551004 555003 558999 561991
 0.01 432764 426753 424746 418743 414741 412737 412730 413724
      415718 415710 413701 410693 409683 407676 403659 399656
      394654 392652 390653 385659 381663 375667 369667 365670
      356677 351681 345683 319694 311701 302710 295718 288726
      272741 262763 256773 253777 248782 242788 240793 238799
      237806 240813 243812 243816 242819 239831 238836 240841
      242847 243849 247849 253847 255845 257848 261851 265854
      271853 274853 276856 277859 279862 280863 283861 287858
      291853 292847 293840 300832 311811 317803 326795 330792
      333788 339777 351757 356753 361751 366753 364760 362765
      358769 350776 347780 344785 342790 339796 338799 338802
      346801 352801 356804 358807 357810 354817 349829 347834
      342836 337841 336847 336852 331856 329861 331865 334867
      338867 342873 343882 345888 347893 353897 363893 368894
      370896 371898 372902 372907 371913 372919 374920 377920
      381917 384913 392905 396899 397892 401887 404880 409868
      412857 414850 416843 416835 415824 416816 419809 428788
      431783 431775 432764
 0.01 359143 358136 357129 353118 351112 347108 343105 340102
      340100 337085 332082 327080 321078 317074 310064 308059
      304054 300052 296052 294054 285058 279059 275060 274058
      268054 264051 255045 244042 239039 231039 230045 227051
      226054 229060 229065 226070 223076 221082 219097 217103
      217110 217124 216132 217139 219144 220147 222149 225152
      229156 233159 240161 246161 253161 267162 273164 277163
      283164 289163 295162 303164 310165 316168 322170 328169
      335170 339174 341181 344185 348187 347180 347176 349173
      353173 354171 352168 350167 347165 346162 349156 353153
      357148 359143
 0.25 532214 534209 534203 534199 533195 531192 530191 528192
      526195 525198 526201 526205 528209 529212 530215 532214
 0.25 517257 517256 515253 514252 513253 514254 515254 516256
      516257 517257
 0.25 525182 525179 524178 524179 524182 524184 525182
 0.25 512929 511922 509916 503906 497899 491899 490896 492891
      491888 488884 484885 481889 480904 481911 484914 488918
      491923 497929 505935 510934 512929
 0.25 413781 412774 409768 403757 400753 397754 396756 392769
      386779 379789 378792 379795 383799 386804 391808 395810
      399814 403813 408808 410803 412795 413781
 0.25 402725 402719 400712 398704 392685 390680 388676 382674
      376676 369682 346701 334711 323721 301743 297758 292774
      291783 291788 295789 314786 322782 328779 333774 338768
      346756 351750 359746 367742 371741 375742 381745 385746
      390744 393744 396742 399737 401731 402725
 0.25 328131 327122 323116 316103 310098 302095 296091 292085
      284081 277082 273081 271078 267070 263064 256061 249059
      248062 251064 253067 254071 254075 253078 239083 232085
      227090 224099 225104 227107 230109 235111 243110 257105
      259102 261097 263090 265088 269087 276090 283094 285096
      286100 288107 289111 292115 296121 301125 309128 316132
      323137 328131
 0.25 322162 322160 320159 318158 317157 315156 313156 312154
      310155 309156 310156 311158 313159 315160 316160 318161
      320162 322162 322162
 0.25 287120 288114 287110 282107 279106 273104 268104 266106
      267109 269113 272115 276117 281119 284120 287120
 0.50 408789 407787 406786 405785 405784 403783 401784 400786
      400788 400790 401792 402793 404793 405793 406792 407791
      408789
 0.50 393722 391713 391704 389696 387688 384682 383680 379680
      374683 370688 363697 354705 338721 320736 312745 309749
      308756 308763 309769 314772 320772 326770 331767 339758
      346750 350745 355742 379733 385733 390730 393722
 0.50 305110 304108 302107 302108 302110 304111 305110
 0.50 252097 250095 248091 246087 240087 236089 232091 230093
      228098 230103 233105 238106 242105 246103 249101 252098
      252097
 1.00 380721 378714 377705 374699 369700 365705 362710 358714
      356721 358724 364724 371724 378722 380721

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 476618 485627 493642 496657 497670 496677 495681 493690
      486704 479719 469734 464740 460743 456745 445752 437754
      434758 437761 444766 449770 449775 446778 438784 428791
      417802 407804 402805 399806 398809 399822 396830 389831
      383830 378830 376833 372841 370842 368839 366836 362836
      357838 355839 354833 358825 366816 376805 377803 377799
      374795 368791 365787 365781 363769 356768 349768 341781
      337788 330794 322798 319800 316799 302796 295795 291789
      289785 288781 286777 288774 295758 297750 297745 298743
      301736 305730 310723 314720 318718 325714 332710 340699
      342691 341686 344683 356671 363665 370659 386647
 0.01 518271 520261 521250 521245 520240 516234 511222 508214
      503209 497207 490205 485204 482206 478209 468215 462216
      457219 453232 446233 441236 437239 433245 427261 432265
      438264 450257 454253 458251 461249 465251 469253 471256
      474260 480263 485265 487267 490270 492274 497284 501286
      505287 510283 512280 515278 518271
 0.01 536861 536853 534848 533840 532835 529828 526825 518818
      510815 502813 488815 484818 478819 460827 458831 455837
      454840 454843 451850 448853 444853 440857 436859 431862
      425864 419864 414863 408863 405866 402869 403873 405878
      409880 413885 418889 424893 431900 434904 439908 443911
      448913 452914 455916 463920 467925 471927 476931 481934
      487939 491940 495942 499939 504938 505937 504933 504929
      502926 504921 505918 507918 513925 517937 520944 523941
      523911 525903 527900 529899 533895 534888 536861
 0.01 514869 513864 512859 510857 508855 505855 502855 498855
      497857 499860 500860 502862 504865 506867 507869 509872
      511874 512872 514869
 0.01 437172 439157 440149 439144 434120 430106 426106 423107
      422110 422117 420125 422133 423136 422140 419132 416130
      412131 412134 412139 410140 407140 405142 402143 399143
      397140 393139 390139 389135 387132 388127 393124 402119
      405117 409117 411117 412115 409104 408098 406100 402101
      398097 397091 398084 403079 404076 403073 401069 396071
      389068 385072 379076 375077 371075 366067 360066 355068
      353068 352071 350075 347073 343068 341062 334055 327046
      320044 315045 310043 306040 302038 297037 291038 285039
      280040 278043 283054 288063 291069 296073 301075 307078
      310080 311083 310085 306085 303082 299080 293078 285077
      281076 266090 256096 252100 249105 250109 254112 263115
      269117 275117 282118 287116 290117 294115 301115 306117
      309123 311129 309132 312137 315139 315144 312148 306148
      300147 296145 291146 290150 295158 301163 308164 314167
      320169 331175 334179 337185 341193 344197 347199 361215
      364216 367215 365212 359202 355198 354194 357192 359191
      361194 366197 371199 376202 382207 391214 395218 399221
      402223 403227 405229 407229 411226 413220 418205 424193
      431183 435178 437172
 0.01 429161 428158 428156 427154 427153 426151 424148 423146
      421147 421150 421152 422154 422155 423157 425159 426160
      427160 428162 429161
 0.01 415755 413751 412749 408750 407752 403753 400754 396756
      395759 394761 396766 398767 401767 403764 406763 408761
      411758 412758 415755
 0.01 390114 391112 389109 389107 388105 388104 386103 384102
      383104 382104 381104 379105 379108 379110 379112 378114
      380116 381117 383116 385117 387116 387115 389115 390114
 0.25 460624 468625 475631 479636 482643 484649 485656 480665
      476677 474683 471689 463697 451713 443722 434728 415737
      403742 390746 384748 376753 369755 363754 360751 357749
      354750 349751 346754 341762 334771 330775 325779 321781
      315782 311779 308775 306769 305761 307754 309750 313742
      320735 328726 336719 344713 351706 355703 354696 356683
      357679 360676 365673 370671 380665 388656 400643
 0.25 511262 512257 510253 507253 505258 502264 500266 498264
      497260 494253 489250 487251 488256 492263 497264 499272
      502272 504270 509264 511262
 0.25 498232 499227 498224 496222 494220 492218 488218 486219
      486220 489222 492225 493227 494230 496233 498232
 0.25 378189 378187 378185 378183 377181 376180 375180 376181
      376182 375182 374182 372182 370183 370185 369185 369186
      371188 373189 374191 376191 378189
 0.25 379167 380164 378160 377158 375156 372156 368155 366153
      363152 362154 362159 364161 365163 369165 370166 373168
      375169 377169 379167
 0.25 371134 371129 370126 361123 355120 349115 347114 344114
      340115 342122 344129 344134 345138 348141 352141 356136
      358135 363135 370135 371134
 0.25 338097 339095 339093 338092 338091 337089 336086 335086
      334084 332084 331086 331088 331089 332090 332092 333094
      333095 334097 336098 338098 338097
 0.50 477651 477645 476641 471635 468632 464630 456630 448631
      440635 431641 428643 423643 417643 409643 404646 400648
      395655 390660 386667 382670 377673 374674 370677 369685
      371693 372700 371705 369714 362727 360731 361739 364741
      368742 401738 408735 415731 429721 436717 442711 449705
      454698 461686 464681 466676 466669 467665 473658 477651
 0.50 337743 336736 333736 330737 326741 322745 318750 315755
      315761 319765 323767 328764 332760 335755 337749 337743
 1.00 459657 459649 454648 443644 439645 435648 429651 425656
      423658 420657 416653 412651 405652 402655 398660 393671
      388680 387687 387696 385707 383713 384722 387725 391727
      397728 403727 412722 422716 431709 439701 445693 452681
      459657 459657
 1.50 443669 429670 426671 421671 417671 415670 412661 410660
      408661 405663 401669 398677 396685 395694 393703 393707
      394712 399715 407715 413713 421708 426704 432698 436692
      440685 442678 443669
 2.00 424691 423687 419685 414686 411689 408693 405696 405701
      407705 410707 413706 418702 420699 422696 424691

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