Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 261829
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
128 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 27/0000 UTC THRU FEB 28/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA-NORTHERN GREAT BASIN

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT DAY 1 WITH THE SOUTHEAST PUSH OF
HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE B.C. COAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  AN
AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES AND ENHANCED UVVS ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THEN POST FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN WA-OREGON CASCADES---WESTWARD TO THE COAST RANGE FROM NW
CALIFORNIA--NORTHWARD THROUGH OREGON AND WASHINGTON
STATE---INCLUDING THE OLYMPIC RANGE.  FOR QPF DETAILS THE HI RES
ARW AND NAM WERE USED PREDOMINANTLY.  INLAND---LIGHTER PRECIP
TOTALS EXPECTED INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WHERE THE ONSHORE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL NOT PUSH INTO.

CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HEIGHT FALLS---A LEAD AREA OF
HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH EAST SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  THE COMBINATION OF LARGE
SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS AND UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC HIGH NOSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES.  HEAVY SNOWS LIKELY THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH LIGHTER TOTALS EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

SOUTH FLORIDA

PW VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE--- 1 TO 1.5+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT
THAT SINKS THROUGH SOUTH FL TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
INTO FRIDAY JUST SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA.  SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ABOVE AVERAGE PW
AXIS--WITH MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE---LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
INTO THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IN THE WAKE OF
THE NEXT PUSH OF COLD ARI INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 534193 535185 534182 533176 531172 525152 522138 520134
      514133 509133 506135 502136 500133 494127 490124 488125
      480121 475119 470120 463117 460116 459110 456101 455098
      452095 442093 439083 435083 431084 426084 425086 424094
      421099 418100 415097 415094 413090 412085 411074 414067
      420060 424054 423050 421047 412033 406028 405022 402016
      393004 389997 382990 376985 371981 373976 373961 373955
      372951 372943 370939 368938 365940 349936 345936 342939
      338945 330960 326969 319973 310987 290989 276980 272978
      271975 274974 279970 285964 287960 287956 285953 281954
      274956 267959 261963 248972 242976 238978 236981 234983
      233987 232991 233996 236000 243004 250008 257014 262019
      266020 269021 277026 295031 299032 302034 308037 320048
      323055 328062 332065 331070 329075 330079 344090 347099
      350103 353106 359106 366102 371099 380096 386094 390092
      392096 394105 392109 389111 382115 378117 377119 381119
      382122 385122 392122 396121 405120 408122 412121 417121
      419123 419125 419131 417137 415140 412142 404144 401146
      399150 394157 387163 384164 380164 375173 374175 376180
      375183 370182 368181 363182 360185 362189 364193 367196
      380209 382212 387214 395218 399221 401223 399224 391225
      385224 381230 380234 381239 387245 392248 395252 402255
      412257 421258 431258 441257 448255 458257 463259 467262
      472267 483279 488286 495293 497294 500292 507289 513282
      516274 515269 513264 509256 502247 496240 490234 486230
      485226 484223 485220 488219 496216 503218 505216 507212
      509209 509201 509198 512197 514200 526209 528204 531201
      533195 534193
 0.01 492165 493160 492156 493151 491147 490142 488139 484136
      478130 475129 471130 466132 462138 461144 459147 459152
      460158 459165 460173 463178 461185 464192 468197 471199
      473198 477198 479196 483191 486184 491166 492165
 0.01 440115 438112 436114 434116 434117 433118 432121 434123
      435121 436121 437119 438119 439117 440115 440115
 0.01 436746 435741 430742 425742 420744 419749 418754 418757
      421761 424761 427757 430753 433750 436746 436746
 0.01 440868 441865 438865 433864 429863 424864 419865 415865
      414868 417870 421872 426873 431872 437871 440868 440868
 0.01 432140 432138 432135 432133 431130 430132 429135 429137
      429139 430142 432140
 0.01 421789 419785 415783 408779 404775 403773 400774 397776
      391777 387774 383774 377775 374778 373788 373792 370796
      364804 362807 365807 370806 374802 377800 383798 382803
      378807 373812 371818 371821 375822 379819 386822 389818
      393815 399808 401804 406802 412800 416798 420797 421790
      421789
 0.01 405750 405748 405745 404745 403743 402743 400742 398743
      397744 396745 395746 395747 395750 395752 395754 396755
      398755 400756 402756 402755 403754 404752 405751 405750
 0.01 404852 404850 402850 401850 400850 399852 399853 397855
      397858 399858 401857 403855 404853 404852
 0.01 292782 291775 291772 289769 285768 281769 271775 264780
      261784 257788 249794 246796 243801 240809 238815 238822
      240831 238836 241839 244839 246841 250839 250851 253853
      258852 266845 271837 279818 284809 287799 292782
 0.25 503273 504267 503262 499255 490243 483244 481234 477227
      476220 477214 475209 472207 467207 461206 458208 454208
      450205 450200 453190 451186 449183 445182 441182 439186
      437191 438195 434199 426199 422199 419201 418205 418211
      420218 419227 407233 405236 403240 405245 407246 415250
      423250 437250 444250 452248 459247 465247 472247 477249
      481251 490262 497271 501275 503273
 0.25 406058 406055 404053 401052 398053 395056 390058 385054
      382049 377047 372046 368046 365045 365043 368030 358026
      349020 342011 336011 332014 331018 332022 334027 339036
      340041 339045 337051 336055 337059 339065 341069 345073
      350075 354075 360073 366074 374080 377082 380081 384078
      395080 399078 402072 403064 405060 406058
 0.25 278805 279799 275795 273795 269798 267802 265806 265810
      266814 266819 270819 273816 275812 276809 278805
 0.50 477240 478238 477235 476234 475234 474236 474237 474239
      475240 477241 477240
 0.50 469223 470217 468213 460212 446214 432214 427219 425222
      425226 426229 425234 419237 412238 411241 415242 424245
      432246 438245 445243 451242 458242 461241 463235 461230
      469223
 0.50 374069 373066 371065 369064 368066 369067 371068 373069
      374069
 0.50 355066 356062 357058 356054 354051 352050 349050 347052
      345054 343056 342059 342063 344065 346067 349068 353068
      355066
 1.00 441224 442222 441221 440221 438221 436222 434222 433222
      432223 430224 431226 431228 433229 434231 436231 437231
      438228 439227 439226 441225 441224

$$





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