Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 252220
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
619 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 26/0000 UTC THRU AUG 29/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHWESTERN STATES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE BUILDING/LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD FROM
BAJA/NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES..AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MID/UPPER LEVEL
HIGH..WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF CONVECTION FROM SOUTHERN
CA INTO ESPECIALLY THE 4 CORNERS REGION DURING THE PERIOD.  THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHWERS AND TSTMS ACRS PARTS OF
SRN CA/AZ INTO THE CNTL GT BASIN.  MODELS SHOW THAT THE WELL
DEFINED H5 S/WV ENERGY NOW VICINITY OF CENTRAL AZ WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD AND THEN A BIT EAST OF NORTH THRU THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN REGION THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON..AIDING LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND ALSO SUPPORTING THE INCREASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
 AGAIN..WHILE THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW SIMILARITIES HERE WITH
LARGE SCALE MASS FIELD DETAILS..MODEL QPFS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE
DETAIL DIFFERENCE WITH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS..SO DID NOT STRAY TOO MUCH FROM CONTINUITY.  THIS LEAD TO
A FORECAST WITH A BIT MORE QPF THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL QPFS..BUT A
LITTLE LESS THAN THE HIRES QPFS.


...NEW ENGLAND..CAROLINA COASTS AND FL...

THE VERY SLOW MOVING AND STILL RELOADING H5 TROF OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WILL RESULT IN A SIMILAR SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND DOWN
INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THIS PERIOD.  A RIBBON OF VERY
HIGH PWS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE..DAYTIME HEATING AND EITHER LEFT EXIT OR RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OVER NEW ENGLAND AND BACK OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS.  THE HIRES QPFS ARE NOT QUITE AS
BULLISH OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE..BUT WERE A
BIT HEAVIER THAN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE..AND AGAIN WPC QPF LEANED
TOWARDS CONTINUITY WHICH WAS BETWEEN THE 2 SOLUTIONS.


DAYS 2/3...

SOUTHWEST TO GREAT BASIN/ADJACENT ROCKIES/NRN-CNTRL PLAINS...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHICH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY/DAY 2. DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED
AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO EASTERN GREAT BASIN AS WELL
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

BY DAY 3...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE  MOVE
TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  A CONVERGENT OR WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH WARMER AIR HEADED NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR OVER THE MIDWEST WILL ALLOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY/DAY 3.  AT PRESENT...THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WERE
FOLLOWED BUT EVEN THE 12Z NAM INDICATED A SIMILAR QPF MAXIMA
FOCUSSING ON THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE QPF VALUES MAY EXCEED
AN AREAL AVERAGE OF 2 INCHES ON DAY 2.  WITH RELATIVELY LOW FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
INDICATED FOR THIS REGION. THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE INCREASING QPF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON DAY 3...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/CANADIAN/UKMET AND BIAS
CORRECTED MULTI MODEL BLEND ALL POINTING TO AN ENHANCED RISK OF
HIGH QPF.

SOUTHEAST...

AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE COOLER/DRY
WEATHER OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTOR OF THE US LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO EASTERN CANADA...SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A WEAK SHEARED UPPER TROUGH REMAINING FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.  WITH A STRONG RIDGE OFF
THE EAST COAST...A LINGERING AND WEAKENING SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND EVEN EXTEND AS A
WINDSHIFT LINE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA.  SCATTERED CONVECTION
OCCURS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH
HEAVIER QPF ACROSS FLORIDA AS A MULTI MODEL BLEND PROVIDED A BASIS
FOR THE FORECAST.

BURKE/KOCIN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 27/00Z
 0.01 540853 540844 539837 537832 534829 531825 527822 516819
      511817 507817 505811 504802 509794 510788 511782 509765
      503759 496758 488754 483751 477748 474747 470744 466737
      462733 459731 457729 459727 463725 475721 487720 493719
      497720 502719 506722 514720 518717 523715 525710 526703
      525696 522694 516688 511681 508674 503668 496664 489663
      484665 480663 473659 468658 462659 457659 452662 446665
      445670 441673 435674 425677 419679 415682 397692 388698
      386700 381702 370710 357721 343734 330752 318768 314775
      309782 302786 299788 294790 285791 278795 273796 273792
      274783 275778 275771 273766 270762 263767 257773 253777
      249782 244789 235793 233794 232796 231800 233805 234813
      237822 242823 245825 251830 261829 266834 272841 275847
      276853 274857 271863 263881 255903 251914 250925 250937
      252947 258961 260965 263967 269971 274972 275976 279982
      289998 294001 298002 304996 305990 304984 299972 294964
      293959 292954 290949 287945 283943 280940 275933 270927
      268924 266918 266907 267896 269888 272880 277871 282863
      287856 294847 296843 296835 294831 290829 293826 298826
      301829 300835 298839 299846 301848 305847 309841 314835
      317826 320819 322816 325814 333809 338801 343792 348785
      355775 358771 362767 373753 381746 387739 391732 401732
      412730 417729 422730 430731 439731 443730 445731 445734
      438736 431745 426753 423758 422765 421771 420779 415799
      413805 413813 413819 413823 418824 420820 423813 427808
      431809 435811 434816 432821 438825 440826 441829 440834
      438837 440839 448833 452831 455833
 0.01 455833 458839 459843 458846 451842 444848 439856 437863
      436866 440868 443868 460857 463854 467854 468857 467860
      465863 462876 463881 466885 469884 472880 474876 478872
      480868 486867 496868 500870 503873 506875 511875 515877
      519874 527871 533864 536861 539856 540853
 0.01 454132 454119 455111 455102 452095 446093 442091 438088
      434090 430089 429083 429077 434076 439077 442080 446082
      449080 450074 447070 442062 439059 434057 427053 423047
      420045 416044 411044 408046 401051 399052 396051 393047
      390045 385046 382049 377047 360050 348059 343058 339056
      334056 334060 342065 344067 343070 338071 322075 316077
      310081 306085 303084 297083 291083 286082 282080 273076
      265072 257070 250068 249069 250073 256080 264086 269088
      275088 278090 280094 288096 291103 293107 292114 292119
      295120 313131 319136 323144 325148 328150 325153 320154
      311153 310154 311158 329168 337170 342170 345168 348165
      350162 353160 357160 360160 365162 367161 369156 366152
      363150 362148 365146 368143 374145 377146 381145 384144
      387146 392154 397160 401162 411160 415159 420157 424150
      425143 424138 423133 425131 428132 430136 433143 437146
      442148 445148 446145 450141 454132
 0.01 399711 398710 396711 394712 393713 393714 391715 390716
      390717 388718 387719 387721 389723 390722 392720 394719
      395717 396714 397714 398714 399711
 0.01 332036 330029 325024 320019 314013 309010 304009 302011
      300017 300022 302025 304028 308029 316027 322031 326036
      329038 331036 332036
 0.25 502700 502693 501687 498682 493677 489674 482672 477672
      469675 464678 458684 453688 447691 444698 444702 446705
      450708 461712 470711 476709 488709 493709 496707 501703
      502700
 0.25 425796 425793 425794 423796 425796 425796
 0.25 411112 411106 410101 408098 407100 403104 399105 395104
      390103 385103 379107 377107 376103 378095 385091 387089
      388084 387076 381072 373069 364069 362070 363072 368077
      371085 372089 369092 358096 359105 362107 363112 355111
      349110 345107 342105 339104 336105 332110 335117 339124
      341127 342132 342135 345138 348139 349137 351132 355131
      358129 362129 367131 374132 377132 380130 386127 397120
      401118 406117 411112
 0.25 352760 351757 348758 345763 340773 339777 336771 332770
      330772 326776 320786 316797 314803 318802 326794 332791
      336786 341783 345779 348774 350769 352760
 0.25 330164 329163 327163 325162 324163 325163 327164 329164
      330164
 0.25 321104 319103 317103 315105 317106 319106 320106 321104
      321104
 0.25 290816 290812 288810 284807 278806 272805 265805 261806
      260809 261813 266816 272818 277819 283820 288818 290816
 0.25 280964 280962 279960 278960 277958 276959 275960 276960
      277960 278962 278964 279965 280964
 0.50 496696 493684 490680 486679 482678 478680 470684 464691
      458698 456703 459705 467705 477703 486702 491702 494699
      496696
 0.50 393114 393112 391110 386109 382112 378114 374114 370115
      367118 365120 366124 370124 373124 378123 383122 386120
      388118 392115 393114
 0.50 381081 382078 381077 380076 379076 378075 377076 376078
      376080 376082 377083 379083 380083 381082 381081
 0.50 351123 352121 352119 351118 350117 349116 347114 346113
      344114 342116 342118 343120 345122 345123 346124 347125
      348126 348125 350124 351123
 0.50 329783 330781 329781 328781 327783 326784 325785 325786
      324788 324789 326788 327786 328785 329784 329783
 0.50 282815 282813 280811 278810 276809 275809 273809 271809
      269809 267810 266810 266812 268813 269814 270814 271815
      273815 275816 277816 279816 281816 282815

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 498719 498710 496700 494694 492687 488677 483669 480664
      476660 471658 467659 463657 461659 456662 456665 454668
      446675 443680 442684 445689 446692 445695 442698 439699
      434703 432709 432716 433720 430723 424728 422730 425732
      422751 427761 428766 426772 425777 420780 414783 412786
      409790 408794 407800 410805 412805 414808 412815 411822
      413826 417826 419821 422819 425824 428826 432824 439815
      444807 446803 450799 454796 459799 468801 473793 473788
      474783 480772 482759 483753 484749 486748 491747 494743
      498719
 0.01 496995 496985 495977 494969 492962 490959 489959 487968
      485974 484985 485995 486002 486010 490007 493001 496995
 0.01 476154 476149 475147 473142 465135 461131 460128 461126
      462119 461112 463109 467107 468102 467097 466092 463087
      460085 458079 453071 453066 454064 457058 462047 467038
      469033 469027 468022 469015 467986 467979 466971 466953
      466947 464939 461935 456934 447935 442933 438930 436928
      433930 426937 421939 416938 410937 406935 403940 402942
      398942 390946 386948 384951 380956 380959 383963 386965
      387968 389968 394970 381987 369004 365014 358018 352022
      348031 347039 349044 350051 346054 333053 330058 335058
      338061 341064 341070 337072 332072 329075 326079 324084
      320088 315089 310087 305085 299083 293083 289085 286088
      287090 292098 304110 306114 308119 311124 314127 323132
      327135 333138 335141 337139 346140 350139 352140 355142
      360145 362142 369135 371133 374134 375139 377145 381149
      384152 389153 393152 396148 398143 397137 396132 396129
      399124 404123 413120 417121 418123 422128 423134 424137
      427137 430137 432142 434146 437148 447150 453144 456141
      461142 469154 471156 473157 476154
 0.01 475727 472726 468727 465728 464731 462733 462738 461741
      462745 463742 465740 467737 469736 471733 474730 475727
 0.01 414015 413012 410011 406013 401014 395014 394012 390013
      386014 379020 374023 372028 373034 375039 379044 385044
      390043 394041 399039 403035 406031 409026 413017 414015
 0.01 371702 371700 368700 364701 363703 355710 346727 340737
      335746 326762 319771 309776 301781 290784 285785 278788
      273791 267791 260789 253789 251789 249792 248804 244815
      244820 246824 251830 255834 260837 270841 279842 290841
      293838 298834 305833 310831 315826 321821 332824 336815
      342806 347800 354791 360781 365774 367770 367764 366755
      365748 361743 362737 364728 368716 371709 371702
 0.01 345180 347172 347167 345165 342160 338159 338164 334164
      331163 325160 320160 323164 325166 328167 333170 340172
      343173 343177 345180
 0.25 458023 457009 457003 455998 450989 448979 446975 442972
      438971 433973 425975 421978 419980 416985 415990 416995
      419998 429997 433002 434007 433012 430023 428033 426040
      426046 428052 431054 435054 439053 446048 450041 455031
      458023
 0.25 430968 431961 428957 426952 424949 419949 414948 410949
      408954 407958 409960 412962 416963 420966 423968 428970
      430968
 0.25 417074 418067 416063 412059 403056 397058 382061 377062
      373060 368055 363056 360064 363078 363081 365081 370084
      376089 379092 384090 388084 393082 396084 400083 406081
      414078 417074
 0.25 358761 357757 355754 352753 348754 343756 339760 325782
      320787 314790 302788 281803 277803 274802 268799 264799
      261801 258804 255811 256817 258823 263827 266827 269825
      276826 285825 293822 299818 306816 312813 325808 330805
      333800 342790 349780 355770 358761
 0.25 360080 356079 352077 349079 343077 340079 336080 333084
      335088 338091 342092 345090 348088 353087 356087 357084
      357082 359080 360080
 0.25 349114 349112 348110 348108 347105 346105 345103 343103
      341104 341105 341107 342109 342111 344113 344114 345115
      347116 349115 349114
 0.50 449029 449015 447000 444988 441983 436981 434983 434987
      438989 441994 439002 439012 436026 433040 433044 435047
      439045 443041 446036 449029
 0.50 410073 410070 410069 410068 408066 407067 405067 405068
      403069 402069 401071 400072 399073 399074 398076 398078
      399079 400078 401078 402077 404077 404076 406075 407075
      408074 410073 410073
 0.50 391073 389070 385067 382068 376067 373066 373068 375073
      376078 379081 381081 382078 383075 385074 388074 391073
 0.50 339775 339771 338771 336773 334776 333778 332781 330783
      329786 328790 328792 330792 331791 334789 335787 336784
      338781 339777 339775
 0.50 326794 325792 322793 319795 316797 311799 307801 305797
      301795 298798 300802 305802 311802 316802 320799 323797
      326794
 0.50 286816 287814 286814 285814 284816 283817 284817 286816
      286816
 0.50 282817 279813 276810 274807 270805 267803 262805 259807
      258811 260815 261819 265821 270822 274822 277821 281817
      282817

24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 502254 503247 504241 502228 494212 491208 486207 483208
      480211 478225 475227 470227 463230 457235 451242 449246
      447252 445257 442259 442264 447266 450265 455267 463266
      471264 478264 487262 494260 499257 502254
 0.01 514874 514866 512858 508853 506847 506841 505830 504826
      503820 502808 496804 491785 487769 486760 483753 480759
      479767 476782 475801 474810 472820 469827 467831 464831
      462829 458827 452825 448831 445836 441849 436868 435873
      434883 431888 427894 418905 415906 413905 407905 404907
      399910 394915 387925 382929 379929 376931 370934 366938
      359947 354953 348954 344956 342959 339967 333980 331987
      331998 331006 334010 338010 340013 338017 337024 333038
      336042 338049 340055 340060 338063 335064 334062 334058
      332055 330053 327053 322054 319056 321062 320066 318069
      313072 309076 300087 298090 293089 290089 286087 282086
      278090 276092 276096 276100 277104 282108 290109 298112
      304117 311116 316113 319107 322101 328097 332097 334100
      337105 340111 342115 344118 344122 344127 345130 350135
      356134 363132 365132 366128 364118 364113 363110 363105
      359102 354100 353095 354090 351074 351068 357068 360072
      367073 371073 374075 376078 378081 379083 381081 386076
      394073 399076 405072 412068 420059 421057 420053 416050
      413049 411047 408047 406049 403052 399051 397048 395031
      396021 399014 405010 409008 413009 420011 428012 436011
      440009 444005 448000 452995 456988 462979 464976 468975
      474977 477979 480980 486977 491972 493968 495964 501949
      505934 509920 512900 514874
 0.01 504060 506048 504041 501034 499031 496030 486035 475044
      471047 468053 466056 466060 467068 473083 477088 481090
      487086 492081 495077 499070 502065 504060
 0.01 463124 464118 464114 459108 457105 457098 452093 447089
      446084 448078 448075 446072 440069 436068 432070 429075
      423081 418085 415092 416095 418097 425098 430102 434103
      437105 441106 444104 447106 448112 451119 453122 456123
      463124
 0.01 421145 422137 422135 419135 411138 406141 400140 394140
      390137 384135 379135 376137 377141 378147 379151 381152
      386151 388152 390155 394157 399157 406152 409151 411153
      414157 418154 420147 421145
 0.01 410110 411103 408098 406095 402099 398100 394098 390099
      391105 386106 385109 382110 376109 376116 375120 373123
      373127 378127 381124 385120 390119 395117 399118 405116
      408113 410110
 0.01 388795 388792 385792 384791 380791 373792 370792 366791
      364791 362787 361779 363773 366768 369765 372760 376748
      376744 373744 370743 366743 366739 365733 363729 358725
      354723 348722 344724 339728 334736 329746 322755 314762
      309764 304761 301757 296755 294754 290754 287759 281768
      273773 269776 266780 264786 264791 261792 257794 253795
      251797 246805 245809 245813 247815 254823 261831 268837
      277841 289844 294845 300845 303842 305839 308839 315835
      326833 330831 333827 337826 340832 340834 343834 348833
      359826 366819 375812 378809 383803 388795
 0.01 372961 370959 366961 363963 359967 355972 352976 348982
      346989 348991 349989 351987 355983 358978 361973 365969
      369965 372961
 0.01 364021 363016 361012 358008 354011 351013 347015 350019
      352022 354027 357031 359027 361023 364021
 0.01 343011 342008 340006 339008 338010 340012 342012 343011
 0.25 483237 482236 482234 481233 479233 478233 476234 475235
      474236 473236 474238 475238 477238 479239 480238 482237
      483237
 0.25 482894 480892 477894 475897 474900 475902 474902 473902
      474905 476907 477907 479904 480901 481897 482894
 0.25 459947 458923 460901 458891 454889 453886 454881 452877
      448875 444877 440882 436891 431908 426913 421914 416912
      411913 405919 388945 386953 382961 373972 368978 365987
      366992 369993 374997 380003 384003 388001 400993 406990
      417989 424989 427989 429992 436991 439990 443986 450972
      456959 459947
 0.25 356763 354763 353764 352765 351766 353768 354766 356764
      356763
 0.25 329768 329766 326766 324769 322771 321773 320776 319779
      318783 319787 322787 324785 325782 326779 326777 328773
      329770 329768
 0.25 307788 308783 306777 304774 302772 297771 293774 292778
      292782 294792 294797 290799 274799 265800 257803 254809
      255812 258815 265819 273820 282820 290818 300816 305816
      308814 309808 307804 302798 307793 307788
 0.50 454923 454912 453903 450896 448887 447884 444884 441886
      439890 435904 433912 429917 425921 419924 414924 411926
      410929 401938 397943 396953 389963 381975 380981 383988
      384990 387992 391991 394989 403979 409978 418979 431981
      436985 440982 447971 450964 452956 453946 452937 453929
      454923
 0.50 300808 300806 300805 299804 298803 296803 294803 292804
      291805 293806 294807 295807 296808 298809 300809 300808
 1.00 449949 448940 446930 448920 448915 446909 445899 444895
      441898 435914 428926 422931 417936 412940 410942 413945
      415961 417963 421964 428968 433972 436974 439973 443966
      447959 449949
 1.50 444949 444942 443936 443924 444918 443913 442911 440911
      438914 433923 428930 423936 419939 419942 422954 428960
      431962 436961 442955 444949
 2.00 440947 440940 439930 440923 440920 438922 435927 431930
      427935 425942 427949 430954 435953 439949 440947

$$





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