Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 231858
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 24/0000 UTC THRU JUL 25/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING
THE H5 TROF INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH THE
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT SIMILARLY FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO MOVE
FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THU MORNING WHILE SLOWLY SAGGING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER MS VALLEY AND RETURNING
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE
MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE CIN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
LIGHT WLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD FAVOR AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE CNTRL TO SRN
APPALACHIANS...WHILE CAPES MAXIMIZE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
ACROSS SRN/ERN VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA WHERE A SECONDARY MAX
IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/25. MODEL QPFS WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT SMALLER SCALE DETAILS WERE LESS AGREEABLE. BLENDED
CONTINUITY WITH THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LATEST 12Z
HI-RES ARW/GEM REGIONAL/NSSL WRF. GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTED
ACROSS OKLAHOMA WHERE THU CONVECTION COULD LARGELY DEPEND ON
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND LINGERING
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.


...LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT THIS
TIME REMAINS STUCK IN PLACE BETWEEN TWO LARGE RIDGE AXES CENTERED
OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY SHEARING THE CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW OVER TIME
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK 850 MB FLOW POINTED TOWARD SERN LOUISIANA AND
SRN MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT AND ON THU. SIMILAR TO TUE AND
TODAY...LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CNTRL
GULF COAST BUT THE CONTINUED DISORGANIZATION OF THE UPPER FEATURE
SHOULD KEEP OVERALL RAINFALL SCATTERED IN NATURE.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A STRONG 500 MB LOW...-2 TO -3 STANDARDIZED HEIGHT
ANOMALIES...JUST WEST OF WASHINGTON AS OF 18Z WILL MOVE ONSHORE
TONIGHT AND END UP IN SRN SASKATCHEWAN BY THE END OF THE DAY 1
PERIOD...00Z/25. PRIMARY MOISTURE AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG THE COASTAL
RANGES OF WASHINGTON/OREGON...WILL PUSH INLAND WHILE WEAKENING AS
THE FRONT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT...BUT STRONG LIFT AIDED BY A 60-70
KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL MAXIMIZE VERTICAL MOTIONS ALONG THE
NERN WASHINGTON/IDAHO BORDER INTO SERN ALBERTA. SHOWERY ONSHORE
FLOW WILL FAVOR THE NRN CASCADES AFTER THE CLOSED LOW MOVES
INLAND.

MODELS SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO STAYED CLOSE TO
A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM...00Z ECMWF AND A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z
HI-RES MODELS WHICH ALL SHOWED MAXIMA IN THE NRN WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE NRN IDAHO PANHANDLE.


...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS
TO RISE INTO THE 60-65 F RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN
MONTANA WITH STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM. DESPITE A
WARM CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 700 MB...SUBTLE LOW=MID LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS FROM THE WEST SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO
IGNITE TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...BUT STORMS SHOULD BE
PROGRESSIVE TOWARD THE EAST INITIALLY...BEFORE DIVING SEWD INTO
THE DAKOTAS/WRN MINNESOTA EARLY THU MORNING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.

MODELS REMAIN SPLIT REGARDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS NERN
MONTANA AS SEEN IN BOTH THE GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS. LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE 12Z HRW ARW AND NSSL WRF BUT AWAY FROM THE 00Z ECMWF
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU ACROSS MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE
00Z ECMWF WAS ON ITS OWN REGARDING HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA AND GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SUCH WARM 700 MB TEMPS AND A VAST
MAJORITY OF MODELS KEEPING PRECIPITATION ACROSS EITHER LIGHT OR
COMPLETELY DRY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA...DID NOT FEEL
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS SOLUTION. KEPT RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIGHTER
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHERE
OVERRUNNING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SCATTERED SHOWERY
COVERAGE...WHILE THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS REMAIN ACROSS NRN NORTH
DAKOTA.

OTTO

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 25/00Z
 0.01 535220 537203 538195 537188 533177 531171 531164 538118
      535107 533103 533099 538091 538085 537078 534064 532058
      529055 524046 522041 520036 515026 511015 507005 503995
      497979 490959 479944 474937 468930 466927 462924 457920
      453920 448918 444919 435925 431934 426933 420932 410933
      404935 401937 395941 393945 393949 402962 405966 403970
      403977 401980 403984 406989 412995 423000 433004 441008
      447015 455021 460031 461036 459037 456035 452034 448030
      444024 437020 421015 405019 398025 394032 388043 382050
      379051 376051 370050 365051 361054 357056 353059 350063
      347068 341075 334079 324089 318094 314095 309095 301091
      295085 286085 283086 281084 280080 279073 281068 281063
      279058 273050 269046 265043 260041 256040 251040 247043
      238047 235050 233054 233059 234063 237069 241076 246081
      251084 256085 263092 279105 294115 304117 308119 312122
      316123 319122 323118 328117 335117 339120 340125 337128
      336136 337139 342140 348141 351141 359138 365135 369133
      373129 378128 382125 389121 404113 411106 410100 406097
      407093 410088 416081 419070 421062 422057 423051 426049
      432045 437045 439045 441048 443050 442055 442067 443074
      445079 454083 461089 465092 467098 469108 472114 474119
      474124 473127 468127 461131 457134 455141 453167 451173
      455176 452181 450195 449200 453203 460203 467198 474195
      475198 473201 470202 463210 460214 456215 446217 438221
      428221 423222 423225 425226 430229 435231 443229 446231
      446234 440236 438239 438244 443246 446248 460262 470267
      474268 479267 488271 496270 500269 505265 509263 514264
      521260 525249
 0.01 525249 526247 526244 527242 528239 528237 529234 529232
      530230 530229 531227 532225 533225 533222 534221 535220
 0.01 470640 468632 467626 465624 457627 452631 444639 434647
      416667 411672 405677 401682 394687 390691 384696 382698
      378699 373704 367707 365706 361706 357705 354710 348720
      341723 336727 334730 330733 325736 313745 302754 297758
      292763 287771 284776 280781 271789 265790 259795 260800
      253803 251810 249814 250817 252823 257829 268835 273837
      279836 285834 289833 290838 288843 287849 282853 279859
      277878 274892 273900 272910 270924 269932 266937 265944
      261947 252955 249960 248968 251973 252976 251978 249987
      249992 250996 250001 251003 255010 258015 263015 265014
      269011 272006 274001 274992 276986 281983 285979 291975
      296972 301966 309954 316941 319935 321932 321929 324923
      326924 326927 328932 332937 333941 332946 330953 329961
      331969 334975 339980 344984 350982 353981 354977 352968
      351960 350952 349944 349939 350936 357927 361923 362921
      363916 364914 364909 364898 365890 369884 372875 377869
      384857 388843 392830 394816 417762 427751 435740 438728
      443716 449705 453697 457691 464679 468672 470664 469656
      468651 470640
 0.01 458172 457170 455172 454174 456176 457175 458172 458172
 0.01 374057 375055 374053 372053 370053 368054 368055 367054
      365055 363056 361058 361059 359060 361062 362062 364062
      366062 367061 368060 370060 371059 372059 373058 374057
 0.01 318802 316801 315802 315804 316806 318804 318802 318802
 0.01 315875 315869 315862 314856 312854 309856 306859 307865
      307871 307878 309882 311887 314884 314877 315875
 0.01 305829 305827 303825 302827 303829 304830 305829
 0.25 533211 534205 534198 533190 531181 528174 520162 515158
      509152 505147 498146 494144 492142 489143 488149 485158
      482163 479169 482171 483176 481183 485188 488196 487200
      485203 475209 463216 458219 456221 457225 464229 469229
      472227 478227 483231 486233 489236 491244 495251 500255
      504256 508256 513254 518249 521242 522236 523231 528223
      533211
 0.25 529090 530084 529079 527073 524067 519064 513064 510065
      507063 506057 505045 498013 495000 492993 489987 484982
      482981 479982 482999 486015 488033 489041 486045 481048
      476051 475057 475062 477069 479075 483080 489085 493088
      495090 499091 504089 508089 512095 516099 522097 529090
 0.25 480241 480240 479238 477236 476236 474236 473237 473239
      475241 476242 478242 480242 480241
 0.25 463239 465236 464234 462233 460234 459234 458235 457236
      456236 456237 458239 459240 460240 461240 463239 463239
 0.25 459657 458649 456644 453641 450642 444647 438653 432660
      427667 426673 425679 424683 424691 422702 421707 419711
      411725 407732 401741 395743 392742 390737 387733 383731
      376727 371722 363720 357722 353725 347732 335744 330752
      324758 319763 317766 315770 317776 321778 329774 336769
      340767 345766 346772 346777 346791 346799 348800 354799
      362801 369797 370800 369802 366803 363807 362813 358821
      353829 349834 347838 343838 342832 338830 334830 332835
      329855 328861 329868 329875 327880 327885 331883 333880
      337873 344867 350870 352870 357867 372857 377852 381844
      387826 390815 392804 392798 392791 392785 393779 395772
      401767 413754 424738 440706 450689 454680 456670 458662
      459657
 0.25 463949 462945 460943 459941 457940 454938 450939 449942
      450945 452947 454949 457952 459952 461952 463949
 0.25 394752 394751 392752 391754 391755 389757 389758 389760
      390760 391758 391757 393755 394752 394752
 0.25 393071 389067 384063 380063 375066 370068 369075 370082
      373086 378088 384087 386079 390075 393071
 0.25 302891 302887 300884 295882 292876 288877 285883 284889
      282896 282902 285906 290905 293899 297897 302893 302891
 0.25 276822 276820 275819 274818 273816 272816 271816 270815
      268815 266815 264817 264819 266821 268821 270822 271822
      272822 273822 274822 276822 276822
 0.25 271083 268077 266072 262068 258064 255061 252059 249060
      247066 248072 251077 255080 261083 266085 271083
 0.50 530208 530200 529193 527185 525179 518172 512168 509164
      505159 502157 497159 493162 490167 488173 486179 486182
      489185 492188 492197 486207 477211 468217 467222 471222
      476221 482223 488226 490230 496241 503250 506252 509252
      513248 517235 523222 527215 530208
 0.50 503049 502039 499031 496022 495018 494013 493007 492003
      490000 487999 488007 490017 490028 493036 495043 500051
      503049
 0.50 487070 487068 487065 487063 486061 486060 485058 484057
      483057 481056 480056 480057 479059 479062 479064 480067
      481069 481070 482072 483072 484073 485073 487070
 0.50 453659 450657 447660 441669 432686 427707 425713 423716
      417724 412732 408742 405753 407755 408754 412749 423734
      428727 430722 431716 435707 437695 447677 453659
 0.50 386813 385806 382804 375811 369813 366816 362826 355835
      353839 355844 357848 363847 372847 375844 379839 382830
      385818 386813
 0.50 384790 384786 383783 381780 379780 376780 375783 372784
      369786 369788 369793 371793 373792 375792 378794 381795
      384793 384790
 0.50 380074 380073 378071 376071 374070 374071 373073 373075
      373077 374078 376078 377078 379076 379074 380074
 0.50 376776 375770 374765 373762 370761 363759 362751 366735
      365729 363727 358728 355730 350736 346743 343748 349749
      352749 351758 350766 349776 350786 351790 353793 358793
      360792 362788 363782 366776 371776 373777 376776
 0.50 337865 337863 337860 338858 337856 336855 335854 335853
      334854 334856 334859 334861 334863 335864 336865 337865
      337865
 0.50 294895 294893 294891 293890 292889 291888 290889 289890
      287891 286893 286894 285896 284898 284899 284900 286902
      288902 289901 291899 292897 293896 294895
 0.50 262078 261076 260074 259074 258072 257071 256070 254070
      253070 252071 252073 254075 256076 258076 259078 261078
      262078
 1.00 524203 521194 519187 514181 508175 504171 500170 498172
      495182 496185 500188 505193 509199 515204 520206 524203
 1.00 513234 513230 512226 510222 507219 505221 503218 499211
      496209 493209 488215 488220 491224 493230 497239 502244
      505247 509246 508242 510238 513234
 1.00 422730 422729 420730 420732 422730 422730
 1.00 379823 379821 379819 377817 375818 374819 374820 373821
      372824 373826 374828 374830 376828 377825 378825 379823
 1.00 357777 358774 357772 357770 357768 356767 355768 355769
      354770 354773 354775 354777 355779 356780 357779 357777
      357777
 1.50 501238 501235 500230 500227 499223 498219 497216 494216
      492219 493223 494227 495231 496234 498237 499238 501238
 2.00 497231 497229 497228 496226 496225 495226 495228 496228
      497231 497231

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