Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 290651
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
150 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 29/1200 UTC THRU DEC 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC---COASTAL SOUTHEAST INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE

THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BE PUSHING ONLY SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD DAY 1 THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC--COASTAL
SOUTHEAST AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  PW VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT---1 TO 2+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---SUPPORTING THE CONTINUATION OF A WELL
DEFINED AREA OF PRECIPITATION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY.
WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT---THE DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE HEAVIER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE---ECMWF AND THE HI RES RUNS--WITH AREAL AVERAGE .25-.50"+
AMOUNTS DEPICTED.

UPPER GREAT LAKES

COLD CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST DAY 1 OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE L.P.---WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW TOTALS POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN

HEIGHT FALLS DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN DAY
1---FORMING INTO A CLOSED LOW DURING THE DAY 2 TIME PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL TOTALS
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.  THERE ARE A LOT OF QPF DETAILS
DIFFERENCES---LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THESE DETAILS.  THE
NAM AND SREF MEAN WERE USED PRIMARILY FOR THE DAY 1 QPF ACROSS
THESE REGIONS.

CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

A LEAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS ROTATING OUT OF THE DEVELOPING WESTERN
TROF WILL PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.  THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE ACCENTUATING UVVS OVER
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ADDITIONAL LIFT EXPECTED FROM POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BROAD REGION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS---WITH HEAVIER SNOW TOTALS LIKELY
IN THE COLORADO ROCKIES.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER WINTER
WEATHER DETAILS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 520149 518141 516135 508125 507122 504122 499120 497117
      494115 492109 490095 490091 487090 479089 475089 472086
      468080 467073 464065 461049 459035 449010 446004 445998
      442980 438963 438955 435949 430938 424938 423941 419942
      417944 414943 409940 402945 394945 391943 387942 380943
      376946 373952 371958 371963 370965 369974 366981 362985
      358998 354009 354013 352018 352024 351033 349040 349047
      350053 355055 359056 363058 365065 369071 384113 379117
      377122 377128 379130 382131 392154 395159 397166 404177
      409187 404192 402195 399194 394191 388190 381186 379188
      380192 384198 388203 392205 400215 402217 406217 410219
      411222 413221 413225 410228 406231 403235 401237 400241
      400244 402247 405250 407251 415253 429257 434255 438252
      450250 453250 455248 458242 458237 457234 456228 456224
      457222 461219 470214 475212 481209 492207 496204 498200
      498198 496194 494194 489197 478202 469205 464208 461205
      459202 459197 460192 461190 464178 462174 461170 457162
      452151 446139 447136 450136 453135 457135 462140 466144
      469147 470143 469141 470136 473133 478134 484138 488144
      492148 507151 512153 515152 520149
 0.01 483872 478853 474848 471840 467833 465831 463833 460836
      458832 456829 455823 452813 452802 448797 444795 441796
      437801 432806 429809 431811 437814 439818 442820 446826
      450833 452837 452843 450846 446848 445851 443853 437859
      434861 429862 422863 416867 414868 414873 417875 419872
      424872 426870 434869 448862 451860 455859 459860 460865
      462870 462876 462888 463900 465903 468903 475888 478885
      480881 483872
 0.01 434773 434771 433768 433766 433764 432763 431764 429766
      429767 429769 429771 429774 428776 430778 430781 431781
      432778 432776 433773 434773
 0.01 425101 426097 426094 422092 419090 416085 414083 412080
      411083 412087 412092 414097 417099 420102 423102 425101
 0.01 415132 416128 412125 409126 409129 406133 405130 402125
      397121 392123 390125 391129 394128 399133 404137 408137
      410136 415132
 0.01 403682 402677 400674 395670 391666 386670 383677 379682
      371695 363706 357710 353715 336737 321759 315770 308784
      302797 299803 296809 293815 290821 287827 285830 286835
      280861 279866 277869 274875 274884 278888 280890 283888
      289884 298876 308866 317858 327848 336839 340834 344829
      346828 347831 349834 350838 351842 357845 361850 365849
      367847 368841 370837 369832 372826 377819 380813 384807
      386799 387795 386792 384788 381788 379787 378785 381780
      382772 384764 386758 395729 399714 399705 401695 403682
 0.01 404098 405095 406093 405091 403093 401095 400097 400099
      400102 402100 404098 404098
 0.01 273805 273803 272803 270803 269802 268802 267803 266804
      265805 263805 261806 261807 261809 262810 264810 265810
      266811 266810 267810 269810 271809 272808 273807 273805
 0.25 445216 444213 444212 443210 441211 440212 441213 441215
      441217 442217 443218 444217 445216
 0.25 433176 433174 434172 434169 434167 433164 431163 430164
      429164 428165 427166 427168 427170 427172 428175 430177
      431178 433177 433176
 0.25 424191 424188 423187 421186 420187 420190 421191 422192
      424191
 0.25 401074 401072 401071 399071 398074 399075 401074 401074
 0.25 394080 394073 392066 391059 390051 387047 380044 379044
      378049 378053 380056 382061 386061 387064 387072 387081
      388084 390084 394080
 0.25 382715 381711 377709 373709 369711 358725 347738 339743
      336745 332749 327756 323763 321773 322780 324784 324790
      323795 321803 309816 304823 300830 296838 294848 291858
      291862 292865 296867 301865 308859 318847 323840 328832
      342799 344794 350795 354797 358795 362792 364789 367779
      373761 377742 381729 382721 382715
 0.50 372731 372727 371725 369725 367728 365730 363733 362735
      361738 362740 366740 369739 370736 371734 372731
 0.50 355755 353755 350759 347763 345767 343770 341775 341777
      344775 347772 349768 351764 353759 355756 355755
 0.50 327820 327817 325817 321819 312822 309825 307825 307827
      305831 302834 300838 300844 298849 298853 304852 307850
      310847 316840 320832 325825 327820

$$





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