Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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016
FXUS04 KWBC 301809
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
208 PM EDT SUN APR 30 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 01/0000 UTC THRU MAY 02/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...REGARDING CLOSED LOW LIFTING NEWD FROM SRN KS TOWARD NORTHERN
WI BY MONDAY EVENING...

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO CONVERGE TOWARD A VERY SIMILAR HANDLING
OF THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER SRN KS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
TOWARD NRN WI BY MON EVENING. THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
TIGHT AS IT LIFTS NEWD WHILE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY OR EVEN
DEEPENING SLIGHTLY.  THIS SHOULD ENSURE A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED
COMMA HEAD BAND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
WITH WELL DEFINED TROWAL SUPPORTING MDTLY HEAVY PCPN AXIS FROM NE
NEB NEWD THROUGH SW MN INTO THE U.P. OF MI.  CONTINUITY WAS
MAINTAINED HERE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA..THOUGH DID TIGHTEN UP THE
GRADIENTS GIVEN THE RATHER TIGHT CIRCULATION WHICH WAS SUPPORTED
BY LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

ACRS THE OH VALLEY/MIDATLC..ERN GT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND...QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY BY EXPECTED
STRONGER CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/SE EARLY IN THE
PD.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE NRN GT LAKES EWD INTO MAINE
WHERE RT ENTRANCE REGION UPR JET SUPPORT WILL AID LIFT OVER WARM
FRONTAL BNDRY EXTENDING EWD FROM LOWER MI.  HERE LONGER DURATION
MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO A STRIPE OF .50 TO 1 INCH
RAINS FROM THE LOWER U.P. OF MI INTO MAINE WITH HEAVIER RAIN
AMOUNTS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER INTO CANADA.  MODELS SHOWED GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AMOUNTS HERE.  AS THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT FROM UPPER
MIDWEST LOW PUSHES ACRS THE CNTL/NRN APPALACHIANS ON
MON...FOLLOWED THE WETTER SOLNS OF THE HI RES ARW..NAM CONEST AND
CANADIAN GEM AS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY MON
AFTN COUPLED WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE WITH STRENGTHENING JET
STREAK TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DVLPMENT FROM WRN NY SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS.

ACRS THE TN VALLEY SWD INTO THE SE U.S...MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
WITH INITIAL MESO LOW AND ASSOCD BOWING SQLN DVLPMENT WITH THE HI
RES MODELS DOING A SLIGHTLY BETTER JOB THOUGH SLOW WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION.  MOST OF THE HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE
WEAKENS THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE ACRS MS/AL THEN REFIRE NEW
ACTIVITY ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LATER SUN AFTN IN RESPONSE
TO WEAK VORT LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER KS.  HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE HEAVIER QPF EAST OF THE MODELS
EARLY IN THE PD WITH OUTFLOW FROM PREFRONTAL SQLN ACTING AS THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT.  MSTR AND INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER ROBUST FIRST
HALF OF THE PD TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINS FROM CNTL TN SWD INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE..BUT PARTICULARLY ACRS SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE
REGION IN PROXIMITY TO STRONGER INSTABILITY..PWS..AND DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT.  BY MON..MSTR AXIS BEGINS TO GET PINCHED BY GRADUAL VEERING
FLOW..BUT MODEST CONVECTIVE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EWD INTO
PARTS OF GA AND NRN FL.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS...

A WEAK S/WV DIVING SEWD IN THE NW FLOW OVER SW CANADA FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK S/WV AND ASSOCD LOW APPROACH THE PAC NW COAST EARLY MON
WILL PROVIDE MAINLY LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS FROM THE PAC NW COAST INTO
WRN ND THIS PD.  CHANGES TO CONTINUITY WERE RELATIVELY MINOR GIVEN
DECENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 516281 514282 511281 507278 505276 500275 493267 491271
      489277 487284 486288 484295 484300 483309 481317 474321
      465321 461319 458316 454308 453304 450307 446314 444317
      440318 435316 434313 430304 430290 432275 435262 437256
      438249 440241 439234 442228 443222 445218 447216 450217
      458214 465211 471207 486203 492199 495197 497195 495192
      483181 479178 474174 470171 468167 465157 465150 462153
      458157 455159 451161 448158 446155 447148 449144 453143
      457141 460138 465131 460124 452121 448119 444119 435115
      428116 424115 421110 423105 427104 427091 432083 435073
      437070 436069 438067 441063 442060 441054 440049 438044
      438035 443029 440019 437016 434011 432006 432004 429004
      423007 416009 408010 399010 393009 389006 381999 380995
      380990 381987 380984 380980 384960 387956 392952 393948
      391943 389935 393929 392917 392913 394907 390898 389896
      386896 381895 377894 371894 362895 355895 350897 338898
      333899 328900 319903 280914 276915 269916 266917 261917
      258910 258903 256899 255880 255870 255867 253865 262849
      269845 276840 285835 287834 287831 282828 279825 274825
      264824 259820 254815 250813 248817 243818 240818 239816
      237837 234844 229845 226843 225837 224830 225818 223807
      220799 222795 225792 228795 229799 231804 234806 231798
      231789 233785 236786 241791 246796 248798 250803 252799
      256796 264799 270799 274800 293807 297809 303808 314806
      344785 357778 366774 371773 373771 383768 392764 397762
      396758 397754 397747 395745 394741 395735 403729 408723
      409715 408708 405703 409700 412699 415703 417709 419711
      420724 419735 418744 427741 433739 435738 436735 436724
      432716 431711 430707 427707 423708 420707 418706 418701
      416691 414681 415675
 0.01 415675 414672 412671 410671 412666 413663 416662 416655
      417652 421649 426647 429644 431643 433640 437638 439633
      440630
 0.01 524259 521253 519249 515239 507219 503212 502209 504208
      507212 513221 515222 518221 524223 528222 531218 533213
      535200 538183 536169 533160 524146 511131 506122 501113
      499102 505096 507092 508086 511087 512090 517093 521091
      526086 529082 529079 532075 535069 537055 538042 541031
      542019 543012 541007 533009 526015 523016 517017 508018
      500016 491014 485011 468003 458000 450995 446995 444993
      445991 452986 462976 467973 469972 472974 474974 476969
      481962 486952 489947 491942 496934 501916 505903 507892
      510881 512875 513869 516846 517834 518821 519814 518808
      516792 514778 513771 511765 503745 496729 464642 454637
      446629
 0.01 526201 526198 526196 526193 525190 523187 522185 521186
      521189 520191 520194 520196 521198 521199 522201 523202
      525202 526201
 0.01 494161 495158 495156 494154 492153 491152 489152 487152
      486154 484156 482158 483160 485161 486163 488163 490165
      491165 493163 494161
 0.01 486108 485103 485098 484093 484088 488081 488074 485071
      479069 474061 473061 471066 470078 473088 473092 477094
      480096 481100 483104 483108 486108
 0.01 472121 470116 469114 466112 466110 465105 463104 461106
      459106 457111 457115 457118 458121 460123 463124 466124
      468122 472121
 0.01 462181 463176 461175 454174 450168 448168 449175 450181
      448184 446186 443186 444189 449192 453191 456187 459182
      460183 462181
 0.01 457091 456088 454086 452084 451084 449083 447082 446084
      445085 445087 447089 448092 450092 452094 453094 455093
      457091
 0.01 456071 455069 454066 452066 450068 452071 453073 455073
      456071
 0.01 421152 421150 421147 421145 421143 422140 421140 420142
      419142 419145 419147 418149 417151 418154 420152 421152
 0.01 428061 425057 420057 415058 409057 404054 399054 394056
      391059 385068 387072 390077 401079 405077 410077 415076
      416069 419064 423065 424067 426065 424063 426065 428061
 0.01 412113 410108 409103 408100 406102 405107 400111 397112
      394112 392114 396117 398116 399118 399120 402127 407129
      409128 409124 408121 408117 412113
 0.25 503839 503827 502817 500800 496783 493769 490755 487740
      484723 482714 480708 471677 468671 464666 458659 454657
      450661 448667 448676 446689 446702 446719 446728 445734
      440745 437750 433754 415768 399778 389785 387784 387779
      382778 371782 365784 358787 342801 330815 327820 325823
      323823 313819 309820 305825 299835 292844 284850 271862
      267867 265873 264880 265886 267900 270904 273905 277904
      286901 297896 305892 309890 314889 340882 346881 351879
      362874 371871 383868 389866 396866 400867 402871 404879
      407886 413896 414913 415921 416928 418936 415940 412943
      410950 411954 414958 411968 409976 410985 413991 417993
      423993 428992 434989 439985 445978 450973 454970 467958
      471952 474947 479936 489911 493900 496887 499873 501860
      503847 503839
 0.25 503039 503035 502032 499029 496027 493025 488023 484022
      481024 480029 482033 487034 491036 494039 499041 503039
 0.25 413809 412805 409800 402800 396802 390805 385808 380811
      381813 384812 389810 396807 399807 405809 410811 413809
 0.25 277809 274807 270806 265805 261804 256804 253808 256811
      260813 264815 267811 271809 275809 277809
 0.50 492866 493849 492836 491828 490825 488836 484833 483828
      485825 486819 488819 489814 488809 484797 483790 483784
      483771 483757 482747 479734 476709 473697 469686 465679
      460671 455671 451679 450690 450699 448710 449724 449734
      446744 443750 437756 432763 429766 426767 420768 417770
      409775 403780 397786 388795 386798 388801 393800 400797
      421792 430793 434794 434799 431806 426814 424823 424829
      427842 427848 426852 417867 416872 418875 424881 427883
      429888 429896 428923 428931 427935 424943 427950 428954
      427959 424967 421973 419981 420987 425989 429987 435984
      441978 462957 468950 472942 480926 486908 489900 490891
      492876 492866
 0.50 399846 398841 394838 391836 385837 375838 368840 348845
      340849 333851 327852 323851 326841 323838 319838 310839
      310834 312830 313826 311822 307827 304833 302839 299842
      294848 284860 278865 272872 270880 268883 268888 276892
      282892 285895 289896 296893 313886 322883 329882 349877
      362870 379864 384861 387859 392854 397849 399846
 0.50 380784 375786 369788 357795 352800 348805 346811 348816
      350818 349821 348824 344829 341834 340839 341841 344842
      346842 352839 356837 357835 358827 364814 367809 373805
      378801 380798 380793 380784
 1.00 473758 470729 468714 468708 466702 463696 460693 454693
      454695 452706 452713 452720 453727 452736 450748 442769
      441798 439803 439812 442815 447815 453813 457810 466809
      469806 471800 471786 471776 472769 473758
 1.00 478900 478890 475889 473890 470893 463898 459908 457913
      453913 449911 446912 444917 442923 440933 437938 435944
      433957 428976 431978 435976 442971 449964 454957 457952
      461949 466942 474921 478900
 1.00 366862 372856 375851 370847 361849 355850 347855 339860
      333859 329857 318856 313857 309858 303860 299863 292868
      286875 287879 292880 298880 300885 305885 309883 319880
      327876 345873 354868 362864 366862
 1.50 468754 466735 463723 461716 459713 456711 455718 456729
      455737 454747 452753 447768 448784 449794 451800 459798
      463795 466787 467779 468759 468754
 1.50 330867 327861 325859 320858 311860 305863 299868 294871
      291874 292877 299875 305878 308880 312881 319878 325873
      330868 330867
 2.00 464767 464762 464757 461751 457749 455754 453760 451767
      453774 452782 453787 454790 458790 459788 462782 463775
      464767
 2.00 323866 322861 317860 311862 308863 304865 302869 305871
      307876 310877 316878 319875 322872 321869 323866 323866

$$





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