Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 061645
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1144 AM EST WED DEC 06 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 07/0000 UTC THRU DEC 08/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

TX/SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~
A POSITIVELY TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWEST HAS ESTABLISHED A
CORRIDOR OF STRONG UPPER JET FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC ALOFT
AROUND BAJA THROUGH SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND ON DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
SOUTHEAST.  VERTICAL PROFILES WERE VERY MOIST IN THE MID LEVELS
AND SHOULD MOISTEN IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING,
THE SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESS, AND CONTINUED LARGE SCALE LIFT WITHIN A
ZONE OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.  PRECIPITATION MAY END UP
A BIT BANDED DUE TO FRONTOGENESIS THOUGH MODEL QPFS ARE NOT
SHOWING A PARTICULARLY STRONG BANDING SIGNAL.  PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE FAIRLY CONTINUOUS OVER A BROAD ZONE.  AT HIGH ELEVATIONS
IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS, SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS ICE AND
SNOW...SEE THE DETAILED WPC HEAVY SNOW/ICING DISCUSSION (QPFHSD)
FOR MORE ON WINTRY WEATHER.  NUDGED WPC QPF CONTINUITY TOWARDS THE
RECENT AGREEABLE MODEL GUIDANCE.


GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT OF SYNOPTIC SNOW AS
SHORTWAVES PINWHEEL THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A GOOD ALONG-LAKE
FETCH SETS UP FOR ERIE AND ONTARIO...AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE VERY
COLD...BUT THE EVENT WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW...AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS VERY LOW AT AROUND 0.25 INCHES. WPC QPF REMAINS AS
HEAVY AS IS REASONABLE, MAINTAINING GOOD CONTINUITY.

ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 513788 512778 511767 509759 508746 506740 504733 498721
      494715 490710 487705 481703 479699 474696 468696 461698
      452706 450709 447711 442711 440716 443722 444731 443735
      440737 438743 434748 432744 430745 427748 428752 427756
      426759 425765 421778 415809 414813 415818 416826 417832
      421830 427798 432787 438782 438777 440774 442768 448754
      449748 450742 449736 450733 452726 453722 456720 462719
      464722 466722 469720 472721 476725 477730 475733 469736
      465740 463745 464753 466758 467763 468774 471778 474777
      484769 491767 494767 496769 498771 500778 500789 500796
      503800 507805 510802 512794 513788
 0.01 485861 482857 479857 473848 469839 464831 460822 460813
      461807 463799 465794 464787 459781 458772 457764 458759
      456757 454757 453762 452767 452770 449772 444781 441788
      439799 436801 433806 431811 431818 432822 435825 437837
      438844 437849 434853 431854 429852 425844 423841 419839
      416846 416855 414860 414863 416868 423869 428871 431871
      437871 441869 448866 453865 457867 462876 461890 460894
      459900 461905 463908 467908 469903 471897 475895 479887
      480874 480869 482865 485861
 0.01 453103 454095 452092 449089 444088 440086 435085 435088
      438093 439096 442101 444104 449105 453103 453103
 0.01 451080 451078 450077 449075 448073 448072 447070 445069
      444067 443067 441069 441070 442072 443073 444075 444076
      446077 446078 447080 448080 449081 451081 451080
 0.01 451054 451049 450046 446041 443035 438031 435027 433018
      428018 427022 425020 422012 420005 417001 413003 411010
      404014 395020 393018 389017 388019 388023 391027 395032
      398033 400035 405040 408045 411052 409055 405054 397054
      395055 394059 391061 391065 389067 388071 392072 394070
      396072 399078 408074 412074 414073 415069 416066 417064
      416061 419058 421060 425063 430059 436057 444058 449057
      451054
 0.01 433759 433756 431754 430757 430759 432761 433759
 0.01 406658 403651 401649 397649 391649 382653 376656 369660
      363666 360669 355671 349674 344680 335688 326696 325712
      321727 320743 315757 309774 309782 309789 302799 300806
      302813 301818 299820 294825 285834 280838 277844 273850
      271854 270859 265865 263873 262879 259884 254889 252895
      248901 244906 236914 233920 231927 233943 231951 232961
      233971 236978 240982 246984 251988 253996 256009 256018
      257027 258029 258035 256041 259055 238064 247068 251070
      253072 254078 274096 283098 290096 295094 300091 304095
      309101 312103 316103 320102 326103 327101 327096 326094
      325089 329088 332090 335094 338098 342096 343093 347088
      350086 353086 356080 360075 363072 367073 371073 374076
      377075 379070 378064 376061 375058 377056 379054 379049
      378046 370045 363047 358049 354050 350050 342049 338046
      333042 330038 328033 329027 327020 326013 323006 320999
      318996 317991 316981 317974 318970 322938 328905 334874
      336864 337853 338844 340835 349812 360785 373760 376752
      381743 385737 386733 387729 385719 386710 391700 402673
      406658
 0.01 395796 391792 388794 384797 379802 374806 371810 373815
      375815 378810 383807 387804 392799 395796
 0.01 399901 398895 396890 393885 393881 396867 397855 397851
      396851 392851 387863 384875 384888 388899 390906 392908
      398908 399901 399901
 0.01 354066 355063 354060 350058 345057 342057 339058 336060
      332062 330066 335067 339066 344067 348068 351068 354066
 0.01 278805 276799 277791 272781 269777 264774 260776 259781
      259789 256794 245797 244793 244792 243788 244785 248780
      252777 255776 256774 256771 254769 250768 246768 243767
      237765 229759 223759 219760 217761 217766 219772 224784
      229795 234807 235814 237816 238813 242809 245804 245807
      249807 254808 258808 260810 268809 274808 278805
 0.25 452806 452801 451797 449795 448799 447802 446805 444807
      442810 441813 442816 444817 447819 449819 451818 451814
      452809 452806
 0.25 444752 445749 445747 443745 441747 440748 439750 438752
      438753 437755 437757 437758 436760 437763 437765 438766
      440765 441762 442759 442758 443757 443754 444753 444752
 0.25 430783 427778 424783 422789 420797 419804 417811 419815
      422808 424803 426796 428790 430783
 0.25 370682 370677 369674 365671 360674 355678 352684 350689
      351697 355702 360699 363695 366689 369684 370682
 0.25 370743 370734 368728 365724 360722 357723 352728 344737
      339744 335754 332761 329772 325782 322793 310813 306821
      301828 295834 288841 285847 286850 288852 292849 296845
      301842 302844 303848 302855 299866 293871 279883 277885
      274884 271880 267886 261896 258900 256907 256913 258917
      258925 256929 255933 254940 253944 248943 245947 243951
      239961 241967 244972 249974 255973 264976 268976 272980
      267003 264013 264019 265025 269038 270052 270057 268061
      261067 260073 264078 273083 276086 281086 286085 290082
      294079 299077 304073 307068 311060 316051 317045 317039
      314030 311019 308007 306994 307979 308968 310958 311944
      314931 317920 319907 325881 325874 326862 327849 327844
      329837 337817 346795 354779 363760 368750 370743
 0.50 441757 443753 439756 438758 438760 439761 440760 441759
      441757
 0.50 428786 427784 426785 424786 424787 423789 423791 421800
      419805 420806 423800 425794 426791 427788 428787 428786
 0.50 362747 361739 359736 356736 351738 348742 342752 337762
      333785 329790 325794 320803 314813 311822 318843 319836
      322831 329822 335813 339804 343792 347783 353771 356761
      360753 362747
 0.50 318881 319873 318865 317858 314862 305880 300884 293883
      290883 287885 284890 278897 275902 273908 269918 266923
      265931 265934 266937 271938 276936 281939 284950 285955
      284960 282966 279976 275989 273002 269015 273039 275051
      276059 276063 273064 269066 267069 266073 267076 272078
      279079 284077 287073 293070 299064 301059 302051 304044
      308040 308033 307026 304016 301004 301996 301989 303973
      304959 303952 301945 309924 312913 314901 317890 318881
 0.50 270902 271900 270898 269898 267896 266898 265900 266902
      268902 269903 270902
 1.00 296023 296015 294010 293001 294993 296979 297975 297970
      294966 290970 288974 285981 283987 280999 276011 275015
      276020 277026 279032 281036 288038 292034 294028 296023
 1.00 290060 290058 290057 289056 288055 288056 288058 287060
      288061 290060 290060
 1.50 288018 287016 287015 287014 287012 287010 287008 286006
      286005 284004 283005 282007 281009 280012 280013 280014
      280016 280018 281019 283020 285020 287020 288018

$$





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