Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 191851
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
250 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 20/0000 UTC THRU JUN 21/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEAST/SOUTH...

A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST ON
TUES, WHILE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTH. A DEEP
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE PLUME OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
THIS BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER LINE/S OF CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
OPERATIONAL AND HI-RES GUIDANCE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO SUGGESTING 1 TO 2.5 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER VALUES FROM LONG ISLAND/NJ AND DELMARVA COAST INTO MUCH OF
THE CAROLINAS SPREADING BACK SOUTH AND WEST INTO GA AND CENTRAL
AL/MS/LA. WPC GENERALLY FAVORED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS WITH NAM
CONEST AND ARW FOR QPF AMOUNTS. THE STALLING OF THE FRONT COULD
LEAD TO LIGHT STEERING COMPONENT AND SOME TRAINING.

...FLORIDA/EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...

THE BROAD CIRCULATION AND DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
PROGGED BY ALL GUIDANCE, OPERATIONAL AND HI-RES, IN TRACKING NORTH
AND WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE ASYMMETRICAL ORIENTATION OF THE
SYSTEM VIA SATELLITE AND RADAR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE PER THE
GUIDANCE. THIS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO
SURGE ONSHORE INTO THE CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL GULF COAST, WHILE
OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION SHOULD ALLOW OUTER RAIN BANDS
AND ENHANCED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE GUIDANCE WPC
REALLY SUPPORTED TOWARD THE BLEND ON DAY 1 WAS THE 00Z ECMWF AND
12Z NAM CONEST/ARW. THIS FOCUSES THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
FEED EVENTUALLY INTO SERN LA, SRN MS/AL AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE.
WPC WENT WITH GENERAL 1 TO 4 INCH AREAL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR BUT LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE AND LIKELY
WITHIN HEAVIER BANDS, ESPECIALLY THE SERN TIP OF LA. IF THE TRACK
FORECAST WITH THIS DISTURBANCE BUDGES FROM THE OVERALL CONSENSUS
OF THE GUIDANCE, THE QPF FORECAST COULD CHANGE, STAY TUNED.

...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES...

ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EAST TO IGNITE INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WPC FOLLOWED A GENERAL
BLEND OF THE ECMWF WITH NAM CONEST FOR QPF WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS LIKELY FROM NRN LOWER MI INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND UPSTATE
NY STATE.

MUSHER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 21/00Z
 0.01 510265 510257 508252 506250 505247 504241 502233 501226
      499211 496207 491205 485204 480205 471209 463215 458217
      455219 459223 463226 468226 472229 475231 475235 470237
      464236 460236 459240 461242 458244 454248 452253 455257
      462259 467259 473260 475263 475265 479271 485273 490272
      494272 499275 503274 506271 510265
 0.01 503644 502639 499638 495634 491633 488634 484638 482641
      479642 473644 468646 464646 455644 447645 437648 418659
      413659 411656 408650 407653 403661 397669 392676 386682
      373696 366703 360711 340740 319769 309782 306786 305790
      301794 299799 298803 292804 288803 282803 274799 270797
      263798 259800 254800 246800 238805 236808 234811 231820
      233824 234831 232840 230850 229860 229865 232869 237877
      241885 243895 247904 247908 246911 246916 248928 250938
      252949 253954 253960 260962 266964 271964 275968 275972
      268974 258971 255977 257988 262993 270990 278986 286982
      288978 291975 294976 302981 308987 311996 313001 311006
      312014 310020 311025 314024 315020 315013 318012 320014
      323016 327021 344002 340001 336999 332989 329986 325987
      321990 317990 314988 303975 301970 303966 309961 310958
      305958 300959 297958 297956 301949 304945 308942 316956
      318958 321954 320950 319943 320934 323925 327912 330902
      336882 340864 344856 348848 354841 359835 362831 365828
      367827 368824 369819 371809 376799 386783 394776 403771
      412769 413772 412774 408777 403783 403789 405792 409794
      411797 411801 412808 410812 407815 408818 410824 413822
      414824 414827 413832 412838 412847 413855 410859 408863
      407871 405873 405880 405884 404887 401891 401896 401900
      399903 394906 391910 389913 391918 392922 393927 391931
      390932 391936 395943 396945 400941 400931 403929 402925
      401918 404911 406902 407898 410897 414899 415906 417910
      418914 419921 421931 423936 424942 425937 426933 421922
      421915 422908 426910 427916 429921 432923 437929 442940
      445941 448945 459959 469975 474984 477987 481987 483985
      486985 489988 495993
 0.01 495993 498998 501001 503001 504994 504980 501970 497960
      493954 487949 484945 482942 478932 474924 470917 467912
      466911 467908 470907 473902 478896 481893 482888 479877
      476870 470864 469861 470858 469855 465846 461837 458828
      451809 452804 455799 455794 454787 452777 455767 457763
      460759 465753 477740 483733 487727 484700 484685 489679
      496673 497669 498664 503644
 0.01 504158 504148 503137 501128 500126 498128 494138 491145
      488154 488167 488175 490178 492176 497170 501164 504158
 0.01 475139 475136 472133 468127 465120 462119 458120 457117
      458114 461109 465102 462099 457092 455086 450073 448070
      444068 440069 436069 436071 441077 447078 451080 449083
      447087 444089 440083 434085 426084 422079 418074 418082
      417087 419090 421097 421107 427118 429120 432121 438117
      440125 442129 441134 439139 438143 440151 442157 449159
      455157 460153 464149 467144 475139
 0.01 447221 445220 442219 438218 435218 433219 431219 427220
      427221 430224 432224 434223 437224 439223 443223 445221
      447221
 0.01 434184 433181 430183 427184 423188 419189 415191 415194
      416199 421200 424198 426194 430190 432186 434184
 0.01 441870 441868 441866 440864 438864 436864 435865 434866
      433869 434871 435872 437872 438872 440872 441870
 0.01 423160 424153 424148 423141 424134 423124 417128 413136
      404139 403144 398145 397150 399153 402153 404156 405159
      408162 413165 419164 423160
 0.01 423768 423765 422764 420764 418765 418766 419768 421770
      423770 423768
 0.01 428836 427834 426832 424832 422830 421832 422833 423834
      424836 425836 426837 428836
 0.01 417001 411988 408982 407975 404972 403974 401978 401983
      399991 395995 384002 381008 376010 362036 359041 357044
      354047 349050 345050 343052 332055 326057 328060 332060
      336066 338069 335073 333071 330070 324070 320091 313097
      315096 318097 321098 324100 316108 313111 317112 319110
      321107 323109 326111 330112 337113 342114 348117 351117
      353115 349111 345105 341090 342081 344079 347079 353075
      351070 350066 354064 359067 363062 361060 356060 349059
      347057 348055 350055 361052 366057 368052 367052 368048
      371047 375048 379051 379046 376044 375041 374034 377026
      382022 387018 389019 388022 387026 387029 389027 395027
      400029 405033 410029 412029 413024 413016 414009 417001
 0.01 398199 395195 388192 383190 378187 371185 369188 376191
      380195 385198 391200 394202 398199
 0.01 402843 401835 401832 399830 398824 395819 394803 397798
      398793 394792 391794 387796 385800 378807 376810 377813
      381816 383818 386820 387824 387825 394824 396828 396831
      396839 399842 402843
 0.25 503265 504262 504260 503257 502255 500254 499253 498253
      497253 495254 493255 492256 491258 492261 494263 495264
      495265 497266 498267 500267 501267 502266 503265
 0.25 482670 482665 480663 476664 472663 467659 459654 455652
      449652 444654 440660 435671 434677 430681 423688 414695
      409698 407695 406691 403688 399689 395693 389695 383698
      378702 374706 371711 366719 360728 354737 347747 341755
      334763 329773 323782 317789 313794 311801 310807 307810
      301815 295815 291814 287811 283808 280809 284815 285821
      279822 275820 270817 270821 274825 278827 275828 270827
      263825 259823 256822 254824 254831 254838 251842 247845
      243851 244865 247876 250886 252892 253898 256913 256920
      255926 255933 256938 259943 263946 266950 271952 281947
      285944 288941 299920 302915 303916 304920 306920 310918
      317910 322909 325905 328899 330892 334880 337868 341855
      345845 346840 351837 356828 359817 363805 369793 373782
      377776 380773 385774 389771 396763 409745 412741 418740
      419739 419736 422732 429736 434734 441731 447730 450730
      452732 454734 457733 459728 462723 467717 469711 471705
      473700 476696 479691 481685 481676 482670
 0.25 454754 455750 453746 450746 446746 443744 438746 434745
      430744 429750 429759 431764 431770 431774 430777 425786
      420797 419803 421810 426819 430823 432828 433834 437840
      440842 442846 444849 447850 451846 455843 455835 449826
      447820 446812 447797 448791 448783 447776 448768 454754
 0.25 437772 437770 436768 435770 435773 434775 435776 436775
      437773 437772
 0.25 404715 402714 400713 396714 393715 392718 391720 390723
      389728 393728 395726 398724 399722 401720 402718 404715
 0.25 323870 323868 323866 322866 321867 320868 319870 319873
      319875 319877 319878 321877 322874 323872 323870
 0.25 264815 262811 260810 258808 256807 253806 250805 249808
      251811 253813 255815 257817 259818 262817 264815
 0.50 478671 465670 463665 460664 455664 452667 448670 446675
      445679 442683 437685 439689 437695 436705 435710 432713
      429718 430721 434720 436717 439712 442711 445712 446719
      449718 452721 456715 456708 459705 466700 473695 476691
      478686 478671
 0.50 453840 451834 448831 444828 442822 442816 443809 444801
      444795 444787 443783 441782 439787 437793 437808 435814
      433818 436823 436828 436835 441837 446838 450841 453840
 0.50 445754 444752 443752 442751 440752 439753 438753 437754
      435755 435756 435758 435759 436760 437761 439761 441761
      442759 443759 444758 445756 445754 445754
 0.50 434790 434787 434785 433783 432782 431783 430786 430788
      430790 432791 433792 434790
 0.50 424720 420716 416716 408723 403729 397736 391743 385748
      376752 371755 372752 377744 377738 375731 372722 366727
      356741 350749 346757 342766 337775 334782 328790 319793
      320802 317810 314814 310816 283833 274832 265833 262837
      261843 255848 252852 251857 252867 253873 253879 256889
      260908 261913 261920 259929 259933 261939 266941 271941
      280940 284939 286936 304904 311884 317867 322860 326858
      327864 326875 324879 322884 316892 318903 321905 322902
      327895 330885 334876 336866 339856 342846 344833 346830
      347826 351823 353819 361803 362798 365795 369786 374777
      380768 384766 388766 392764 395760 400753 404746 408741
      412737 415735 417731 420725 424720
 0.50 310833 309832 308832 306832 305833 306834 308834 310833
      310833
 1.00 411728 411727 409727 407728 407729 406731 405734 406735
      408734 410733 411730 411729 411728
 1.00 402743 399743 395745 389751 377760 374763 369765 364770
      361773 360767 359758 361754 359755 356761 351769 347776
      344784 340790 336798 335808 334812 331812 331809 331801
      325806 322808 320812 319817 318820 321820 324818 328818
      329820 327824 322831 319834 321838 328836 336839 338838
      339834 344816 348810 351811 353808 357806 359801 362794
      368777 380767 384761 391757 396754 399751 402743
 1.00 335865 334861 334854 332849 330852 330859 332863 332868
      330873 329878 331880 332876 334870 335866 335865
 1.00 318853 311847 307843 304842 301841 290839 285840 279839
      273837 269837 267839 268847 268851 265856 260860 258864
      258872 262901 267913 267920 265927 265931 267933 270935
      274933 283928 290918 297911 303901 306888 309875 313862
      315856 318853
 1.50 367773 364772 362775 361778 360781 359783 358785 357790
      356792 357796 360794 361792 362789 363785 363782 364778
      365775 367773
 1.50 357770 357768 356767 355768 355770 355773 355775 355777
      356775 356772 357772 357770
 1.50 357801 353798 351793 352787 351785 347786 343789 341793
      341803 337814 333817 332822 335826 337827 338825 340820
      341814 346805 349800 351802 355804 354800 357801
 1.50 327812 326809 326807 325807 324809 322810 322812 323813
      324813 326812 327812
 1.50 308865 306853 304850 299849 294847 291844 285845 283846
      282848 276854 268859 262866 260869 260876 264899 268908
      270913 270919 270925 268928 270929 274925 281921 288915
      294909 298906 300902 304892 305882 308865
 2.00 361789 362787 360785 359787 358789 358790 358792 359793
      360792 360791 361789
 2.00 348794 349791 348790 347791 346793 346794 345796 345797
      344798 345801 346800 347799 347798 347796 348794 348794
 2.00 338821 338819 338817 337816 336817 336818 335819 336821
      336822 338822 338821
 2.00 305867 305862 304858 302855 299855 295861 293863 291860
      288857 284857 276859 269862 264867 261874 262884 264892
      266900 270907 273914 275917 279917 284914 290910 295905
      299899 302891 303882 303874 305867
 3.00 293897 294891 292887 289878 287873 284869 282867 277865
      268868 265872 264876 265888 267898 271905 277911 286909
      289906 291902 293897
 4.00 288902 288897 287894 284889 282883 279879 274876 270876
      267882 268890 270896 273902 277900 280902 284905 288902
 5.00 276890 276889 275888 274887 273886 272885 271885 270886
      271888 272890 273891 273892 275894 276892 276890 276890

$$





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