Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 091858
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
157 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 10/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A BROAD AREA OF HI RH
WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  A MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST FLOW HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WHAT IS STILL A
DISORGANIZED AND COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER COAST.  AS THIS LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED LATER
TODAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS SHOULD FORM AND EXTEND WEST OF THE
LOW.  THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD HELP THE
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES.  THE 09/00Z GFS...NAM AND UKMET WERE MOST
HEAVILY USED WHILE PREPARING THE MANUAL WPC QPF...ALTHOUGH WE WERE
ABLE TO INCORPORATE SOME OF THE 00Z ARW/NMMB TO FOCUS SOME OF THE
HEAVIER QPF.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM -12C TO -21C.
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORS HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN AND OVER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI TO THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT KEYED IN ON THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS
BEING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WE SAW LITTLE REASON TO MAKE
CHANGES THERE.


...NARROW STRIPE OF LIGHT QPF FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE
LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE WEST WILL GENERATE A 130+ KT 250 MB
JET STREAK OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS-MN-WESTERN IA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD (THROUGH TONIGHT). THE JET STREAK WILL THEN SHIFT EAST AND
EXTEND ACROSS EASTERN MN-IA-WESTERN WI AND INTO IL ON WED. THE
RESULTANT RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET FORCING (NARROW CORRIDOR
OF ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS) WILL LEAD TO A CORRESPONDING ELONGATED YET NARROW
SWATH OF LIGHT PCPN ALONG A SHARPENING LOW-LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE...BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND OUT AHEAD OF THE
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW BOLSTERED BY THE DEEP-LAYER NW FLOW OFF THE
ROCKIES. MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT (WITH THE 12Z RUNS) ARE
MORE SUBTLE...IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND TIMING...AND AS A RESULT
WPC WAS ABLE TO UTILIZE AN ENSEMBLE MEAN
(NAM/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET)...INCLUDING THE LATEST PARALLEL GFS AND
RGEM...ALONG WITH THE WRF-ARW AND NSSL-WRF. 24 HOUR AMOUNTS WITHIN
THIS STRIPE AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.10 - 0.25 INCH...WITH SOME MODEL
CONSENSUS OF A SMALL/NARROW POCKET OF 0.25+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A
SMALL PORTION OF EASTERN ND.

HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 11/00Z
 0.01 563076 558079 556081 552081 545080 540078 530070 522062
      482030 474019 466011 456004 451000 446996 437986 430977
      421968 413959 405947 397938 380920 373908 372901 375898
      379897 382899 387901 396908 416924 433942 437947 443951
      453956 464961 474967 496980 505986 511989 516992 555022
      559026 561032 564037 566044
 0.01 521268 521261 520256 517247 509230 505221 500215 496213
      492211 483209 475211 469215 463218 462223 463226 471223
      476219 481219 485221 487224 489229 487233 483235 479229
      463231 460233 457231 451235 448236 445240 438242 433241
      428238 426237 423239 420246 421248 423249 427252 418253
      415254 414258 416262 421264 429264 433263 435264 435267
      437270 441271 449270 453270 456269 475276 484280 487283
      492286 497290 503292 508292 513291
 0.01 518777 514759 513736 512725 511721 510717 508709 506702
      504695 501687 500680 498676 497673 490660 482647 473637
      469631 467629 466632 460644 458649 459651 464655 466656
      466659 460670 458678 457688 452687 447684 439673 435667
      431660 424649 420647 416649 391664 381662 374664 368668
      361671 356674 351676 349678 345684 330701 326705 322711
      315723 310732 307737 305744 303751 302757 300766 298773
      298777 300780 303785 306789 310787 322782 333776 342766
      346762 349756 356746 357742 360738 367740 372745 374749
      376757 377766 382777 383780 386781 392782 399783 398788
      391790 386795 381800 378805 373810 365813 360817 357822
      351830 348836 344840 340845 338848 338853 339857 341860
      345861 351862 353864 357863 363861 369860 374858 378857
      387857 392859 396862 404870 409871 414875 418878 420879
      425879 432878 438876 445873 450871 456874 461878 462882
      461886 459890 459895 460903 463908 467913 469913 470910
      475895 477887 482880 484875 484870 479857 474851 470847
      466846 465842 466836 466832 469831 474835 478840 483842
      493843 500842 505836 508832 513827 516811 516791 518777
 0.01 433251 432250 430249 428250 429251 431252 433251
 0.25 516275 517269 517264 516256 510244 506237 500232 498232
      497235 498238 501245 504253 501257 498255 497252 493246
      489241 486241 485244 480257 485261 488267 492274 496279
      500282 503283 507283 509280 516275
 0.25 528036 527029 525024 519018 511014 510011 506008 498003
      490002 492008 495012 498016 501018 504026 510033 518038
      525039 528036
 0.25 478241 478238 477236 476235 474237 473238 473239 475241
      476241 478241
 0.25 466745 466742 465740 464738 463738 461740 461741 461743
      462744 463745 465745 466745
 0.25 472989 470988 469986 467986 466986 467989 469990 470990
      472990 472989
 0.25 472880 472875 471871 469868 468866 466863 465861 464863
      462865 461869 462873 463876 465878 465883 467885 469885
      471883 472880
 0.25 446761 446755 444752 443746 444740 444736 442735 440737
      439741 434749 429752 428756 429761 431764 433766 438772
      442778 445775 445771 444767 445764 446761
 0.25 449860 448858 446857 445858 444858 443858 441860 440860
      439861 439863 440864 441864 443864 445864 447863 448861
      449860
 0.25 443798 444795 443793 443791 442788 440787 439789 438790
      438791 437794 437796 437799 439801 441802 442801 443799
      443798
 0.25 443822 439808 438805 434805 429804 429798 431790 431785
      430781 427780 423784 421790 416802 414809 414816 416818
      419816 422811 424808 425817 429824 434825 438825 443822
 0.25 425703 425699 424696 421697 415703 408708 405712 403708
      398699 394689 393682 391678 388675 385672 381672 377674
      369678 362684 355689 343702 332715 325732 319748 316758
      312766 324770 330763 333756 341740 345732 345730 349727
      358725 369723 373722 379722 383724 384726 390734 393737
      396738 400739 406739 410737 411732 414729 416726 418716
      419710 422708 425703
 0.25 425860 424859 422858 420859 419860 417860 415860 415861
      415863 415865 416865 417867 419866 420865 421864 422862
      424861 425860
 0.25 391801 391799 390798 388797 386798 385799 385800 383802
      381804 381805 381807 382809 384809 385808 387807 389806
      390803 391801
 0.50 514261 513258 512255 513258 514261 514261
 0.50 502275 501269 500266 497261 496257 494253 491249 490253
      491258 493264 495268 497273 500277 502276 502275
 0.50 391720 390718 389719 388719 388721 389723 390722 391720
 0.50 381690 381688 380686 380685 378686 378687 377689 376689
      375692 374694 374695 374697 374699 375701 377702 379702
      380700 381697 381695 381693 381692 381690

$$




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