Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 081818
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
217 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 09/0000 UTC THRU JUL 10/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1

EASTERN GREAT LAKES---UPPER OH VALLEY--CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARD
THE LOWER TN VALLEY/LOWER MS VALLEY

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING GOOD MASS FIELD AGREEMENT DAY 1
WITH THE MEAN UPPER TROF MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY.  THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/UPPER OH VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY.  PW
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE---1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.  THIS AND FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE LOWER TN
VALLEY/LOWER MS VALLEY.  THERE IS MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN  AGREEMENT
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION
TOTALS
LOWER MS/LOWER TN VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  DURING
THE DIURNAL CYCLE WED...SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
INCREASE IN THE SOUTHEAST US.  THE MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONT IN NEW
ENGLAND SHOULD FAVOR A LESSEN POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS THERE.  MANUAL PROGS USED A MULTI-MODEL/SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLE MEAN CONSENSUS FOR QPF.

SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING ACROSS NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO AZ/UT/CO/ADJACENT NM.  THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE MEAN MID-UPPER HIGH HEIGHTS CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT BASIN.  WEAK IMPULSES REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN AND ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN ANTICYCLONE.  MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES
WITH STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 2-3+ ABOVE THE MEAN WILL PERSIST FROM
THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  THESE HIGH PW VALUES AND THE
SPORADIC ASCENT CAUSED BY SHORT TERM UPPER DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MAXIMA WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF WIDELY SCATTERED
MONSOONAL CONVECTION. THE MODELS FCST AN AREA OF QUARTER TO HALF
INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH HIGHER LOCAL MAXIMA EXPECTED WHERE
CELLS ARE SLOW TO MOVE IN THE LIGHT FLOW ENVIRONMENT.  MANUAL QPF
USED A CONSENSUS MULTI-MODEL/SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND.

FLORIDA

PW VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.75-2.00 INCH RANGE ACROSS MOST OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DAY 1.  FCST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS INDICATE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WED BACKS TOWARDS THE SOUTH IN THE BNDRY LAYER AND
SOUTHWEST ALOFT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL...AS THE BNDRY LAYER
RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE PENINSULA WEST FROM THE BAHAMAS.  THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN NORTHERN
FL.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR PENINSULA WITH SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OVER
SOUTH AND CENTRAL FL.  THIS COMBINED WITH BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE MAXIMA OVER INTERIOR SOUTH FL WOULD ALLOW THE AXIS OF
HIGHER AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.
WITH FCST SOUNDING MEAN LAYER RH VALUES OF 70-80 PERCENT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY.  OVER NORTH FL...A FASTER MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST
ALLOWS A CONCENTRATION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS MOVING TO THE EAST
COAST.  MANUAL QPF BLENDED THE 00Z ECMWF/06-12Z GFS WITH
CONTINUITY.

PETERSEN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 10/00Z
 0.01 535746 534730 533723 531716 528704 524693 518683 513675
      501663 489647 484642 476646 457652 447668 444673 443679
      443685 441690 437699 431706 424696 421696 416698 409704
      403711 401712 400710 397707 393706 388707 381711 374717
      363735 354749 349756 344764 340773 335780 319815 313823
      312819 314814 313807 310805 302802 298801 294799 289793
      281789 274785 268781 262782 258784 244794 241798 241803
      240809 241811 247818 253824 262827 270830 276836 278840
      279844 279855 280862 282868 284878 284884 283887 283900
      284913 284920 286925 286931 288935 292939 296939 305938
      314941 316944 319949 326966 333986 334992 337995 340997
      343999 344002 345004 349003 356998 362994 366002 370005
      369010 370015 372018 377021 375026 371028 368027 360009
      357007 352007 349009 345013 347020 351030 347040 343049
      340051 335053 330053 327055 328059 330060 333058 336059
      337063 336065 327068 323070 320073 315081 308081 300075
      291070 286067 282064 274059 266055 258051 253050 249051
      245053 242056 241067 240072 237075 235081 236087 239091
      246096 256099 263105 270110 284120 302130 317137 327141
      337144 340147 346148 352149 356148 360146 363146 365148
      373152 377155 380160 382164 382170 381178 379184 379189
      381193 385193 388190 392181 403194 415196 419192 421188
      423177 420174 418168 418163 416160 411152 410149 410146
      409142 404133 400130 396133 393136 390134 386130 385127
      387125 395123 405124 412120 415117 418111 417105 416100
      414090 413084 414076 414062 415054 413048 410040 405034
      400027 397024 396022 398021
 0.01 398021 401019 405019 410024 416027 421024 424023 426025
      428026 433031 437031 440029 441021 441016 439014 435007
      429994 427986 426977 423968 419961 410952 405949 399952
      396954 394958 393961 392965 391972 392981 396995 390999
      386999 383995 380990 377983 372967 368951 367942 367931
      367920 369912 373898 376881 380864 382857 385850 390835
      394829 398824 409815 414810 417804 421798 423795 427794
      443791 447791 449793 455797 460800 461804 462809 463822
      465831 466843 466846 470846 477847 485846 493815 493809
      495805 499804 501801 513794 516793 519790 524784 527779
      529772 532766 534758 535746
 0.01 475890 475884 471880 466873 465868 464865 465861 465858
      460858 455852 456842 450837 443833 440831 436828 434825
      429826 426829 426832 430841 434861 442880 442887 444892
      448901 451901 455903 465903 472897 475890
 0.01 460123 461106 460100 458095 457093 454092 448092 447092
      445095 444101 443118 442126 439132 437137 437143 440149
      445152 451146 455137 459126 460123
 0.01 439204 439199 438196 433192 427193 422196 420199 418203
      418207 420210 422212 419212 411209 399203 397204 398207
      402212 406218 409225 412230 414232 417232 423230 428226
      432222 436216 436207 439204
 0.01 312826 311822 309825 306827 304828 300829 301834 301838
      303841 304838 305835 307833 309831 310828 312826
 0.25 519718 520713 518709 515706 506702 497700 492698 489693
      490687 489682 486681 485678 485674 483672 484664 483662
      479664 474664 468666 465670 460681 478676 471685 462692
      449709 445714 440718 436720 429722 421729 417733 414739
      408748 401756 393763 391769 391774 397783 399797 400799
      403798 407794 413785 418774 421769 426765 431762 435760
      444761 449763 455764 461763 467764 474768 480771 486769
      496763 505758 509755 513750 515744 516738 519718
 0.25 414980 414979 413977 412976 411975 410973 409975 409977
      409980 410981 411982 412982 413982 414981 414980
 0.25 394794 391787 387784 382782 380776 379768 381763 384758
      385753 383747 376748 371750 366753 360762 355775 352786
      351801 351807 352813 354817 350822 349824 346825 341829
      335839 331849 328855 324859 321863 318868 314879 311893
      310899 311907 332949 334955 337960 346965 356971 361973
      364973 364971 360959 358953 358944 358926 360912 365885
      367871 369858 370851 372844 377833 382821 387812 392803
      394794
 0.25 388075 389067 388054 388052 385052 382054 377053 374049
      370046 366045 361045 358046 355050 354055 353062 352069
      349073 341075 336076 331075 327078 325081 323086 318088
      308089 299085 292081 284076 275072 265072 261074 257077
      256082 253084 248085 247089 250091 254093 263097 270102
      278107 288110 296114 303119 307122 313124 321125 330123
      335124 338128 341131 346133 350132 354130 356125 355120
      354115 354108 358098 361094 364091 367088 371087 379088
      383084 386079 388075
 0.25 308920 308914 306905 306899 306895 304891 302891 297893
      294897 295903 296912 299918 303921 306921 308920
 0.25 290818 291815 290813 288811 282806 277803 270800 263800
      258800 254802 253805 253810 258815 264818 272820 279821
      284821 288819 290818
 0.50 478694 477691 475694 470700 466705 459711 457717 454725
      454731 457734 460734 464733 468728 472726 473723 474713
      476704 478694 478694
 0.50 442747 442745 442742 441740 440740 439739 437739 437738
      435737 433737 431738 430740 429740 428742 427743 429745
      430747 431748 432749 433749 434749 436749 438749 440749
      441748 442747
 0.50 384806 384801 381798 377798 374799 368803 365805 362809
      356824 352830 350833 346835 341840 338847 331861 323874
      321879 321882 322890 321901 322912 325919 328927 335942
      338949 340953 342954 352943 354923 357904 360885 362876
      363866 365847 373832 379817 382811 384806
 0.50 378078 379074 378071 375069 373067 371066 368065 366066
      365070 365072 367075 370077 372078 376079 378078
 0.50 365061 365059 366056 366054 365052 363051 361050 360051
      359051 358053 357056 357058 358060 358062 359065 360067
      362067 363065 364063 364062 365061
 0.50 348123 347121 347119 345118 343118 342120 343122 343123
      344124 346124 348123
 0.50 341102 343098 343093 339087 334084 331083 331088 331096
      330098 327099 321095 316095 308094 301093 294092 288093
      290100 293106 304113 310117 316119 322118 327115 337106
      341102
 0.50 278090 279086 277084 274081 268081 267085 269087 266088
      261090 265095 269097 276099 276093 272089 278090 278090
 0.50 276811 274809 272808 270806 267804 265804 261804 258804
      256806 256808 258811 260813 262813 266814 269814 273813
      276811
 1.00 349903 348899 346895 342895 339897 339904 340909 342911
      341915 340919 341924 346923 347919 349914 349908 349903
 1.00 331902 332898 332893 332889 332885 331881 327882 326885
      325888 325891 326896 326898 327902 328904 331904 331902

$$





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