Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 280756
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 28/1200 UTC THRU JAN 31/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

NO HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED ACRS THE LOWER 48
STATES THIS PD.

GT LAKES/UPR MS VALLEY...
LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACRS PARTS OF THE UPR MIDWEST/GT
LAKES REGION AS WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKS EWD ACRS SCNTL CANADA.
 MAIN LIFT IS FCST TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE LAKES WITH SOME .10 INCH
LIQUID EQUIVS PSBL OVER NE MN AND THE U.P. OF MI. IN LINE WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS.

CNTL ROCKIES/WASATCH...
LIGHT HIER ELEV SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY WEAK S/WV TRACKING
THROUGH PARTS OF ERN ID/WY/UT/CO AS SYSTEM IS GENLY WEAK WITH
LITTLE MSTR TO WORK WITH.

WA STATE...
VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER WRN WA/NW OR AS VERY WEAK S/WV IS FCST TO SLOWLY
WORK EWD TO THE COAST.

NEW ENGLAND...
LINGERING VERY LIGHT SNOWS ARE LIKELY EARLY IN THE PD ACRS ERN
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND BEHIND EXITING LOW PRES THAT WITH CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA/ERN CANADA.

DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES ON THU LEADS
TO WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE WITH 700 MB
CONVERGENCE LOWER MI AND LAKES HURON AND ERIE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK.  OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU INTO HE NEARBY ADIRONDACKS.  ON FRI AS THE MID LEVEL
WAVE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND...A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE MAINE COAST.
AS THIS LOW STRENGTHENS...THE LOW LEVEL JET WRAPPING AROUND THE
CIRCULATION INDUCES
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE.
FOR INFORMATION ON THE WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS FROM THIS EVENT
PLEASE REFER TO THE WINTER WEATHER FORECAST PROBABILITIES AND
DISCUSSION.

THE MODELS AGREE BETTER THAN AVERAGE FOR A DAY 3 FORECASTS WITH
MANUAL QPF TAKING A CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET.


...SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THU AND
FRI.  LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL STREAM AN
ANOMALOUS AMOUNT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INLAND AND BANDS OF 700 MB
CONVERGENCE AND 300 MB DIVERGENCE ROTATING AROUND THE CIRCULATION
ALLOW FOR SOME WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS.
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE WHERE THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IMPINGES ON
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND INDUCES LOCAL MAXIMA WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
OCCURS.

SHOWERS BREAK OUT IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS THE JET MAXIMA
MOVES EAST FROM NM TO THE TX PANHANDLE AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW TAPS INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  UPPER DIVERGENCE
MAXIMA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PRODUCES SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST TX.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF THE MID-UPPER CIRCULATION.  THE WPC
FORECAST USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/21Z SREF MEAN/00Z
NAM QPF.

SULLIVAN/PETERSEN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 29/12Z
 0.01 464622 488623 492627 496632 499638 500646 498662 490672
      483675 480681 472691 467695 461697 458697 456695 457692
      454688 451689 444692 439695 436697 434701 430704 423706
      417707 411704 409699 409692 409688 410685 413678 420668
      431660 436649 439643 443637 449629 454628 456628 457625
 0.01 538038 539030 538022 538016 537011 537997 536993 536987
      533965 532952 529941 528936 527931 525918 525905 528897
      530883 530878 532872 531860 532854 532848 532841 530836
      529825 524807 520797 516792 511783 505777 500771 499768
      496771 490775 486780 478784 474787 471790 459798 455801
      453803 448809 441822 431834 427837 425841 423844 422851
      419859 416867 412873 409880 407885 408890 410897 413898
      418898 422896 425895 433890 436888 441887 445887 447888
      446891 443897 438904 434911 433914 431920 431926 433930
      435933 439933 445928 447925 450928 454931 455934 462949
      466957 469962 472962 483952 485949 487947 489949 490953
      490959 492964 492972 495982 497993 500000 507017 509026
      512034 515041 520047 523052 526054 529056 532054 534051
      536045 536040 538038
 0.01 485243 484237 483232 478229 473230 464233 455234 451235
      449237 450239 448256 448261 453263 457261 461258 468251
      471248 475250 479251 483247 485243
 0.01 491139 489137 487136 486133 483130 481130 479130 476131
      474133 472136 475137 479137 482138 484136 487139 489140
      491139
 0.01 477215 478213 478210 477210 476211 474211 472213 470213
      468214 467214 466217 468218 469218 470218 471217 473216
      475215 477215 477215
 0.01 479167 480160 479157 474154 471150 469147 466144 463144
      464149 465154 467158 469162 469168 474169 477169 479167
 0.01 456110 456101 455095 453084 452079 450073 443065 436056
      435051 433046 433040 429035 424034 422039 421056 418059
      413059 405054 402054 398057 389062 389065 387067 383069
      379080 382084 386086 391084 393086 397085 402079 412080
      416078 419074 419069 422069 426070 429073 431079 436091
      434093 432092 428089 424089 425094 427099 424103 421110
      417110 413110 411108 408103 406100 404107 402112 398114
      394116 391119 389122 390124 395123 402123 406122 410120
      414119 422125 425139 429139 432137 435133 438130 440122
      442117 445118 446121 449126 456110
 0.01 443041 443040 441040 441041 441043 443041 443041
 0.01 411157 412153 412150 410150 406151 404153 402154 400156
      399159 400162 402162 405161 407160 409159 411157
 0.01 400906 399899 397894 394890 392883 389880 390875 389858
      389850 386847 384845 379850 375852 372855 365863 354879
      348888 343897 341903 340908 337917 340918 344916 348913
      351909 355907 357909 360909 366908 371906 379900 383900
      387902 394908 398908 400906
 0.01 269800 268799 267798 266798 264798 262798 261799 259800
      257800 255800 254801 253802 252803 251804 252805 254805
      256805 258804 259804 260803 261802 263802 265802 266801
      268800 269800
 0.25 531021 530018 529015 529014 528013 527011 526013 526015
      526018 527021 527022 528023 528024 530023 531021
 0.25 523991 522981 521972 517953 513936 510916 507895 505872
      503851 503845 501839 499830 496822 491819 489817 486818
      480822 474827 471834 471842 475847 476853 478856 483859
      488876 488889 490897 496914 499921 501929 505949 506959
      508968 513986 518996 521996 523991

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 522267 522262 521260 515257 511252 507253 508257 508267
      506269 504268 502266 498265 499271 501277 502284 506289
      510289 511286 513279 516279
 0.01 521750 520742 519735 518718 517710 515704 513696 511691
      504684 500682 496678 494674 491674 486673 483672 479672
      473671 470671 464672 451676 442681 436683 431682 425683
      422682 419683 406681 403682 400681 394682 384688 365700
      351714 336731 331735 326740 319750 317760 316765 316772
      321782 322789 319795 316807 317816 320821 326820 328815
      331810 335805 338802 340798 343785 355770 361762 364755
      368751 375749 380751 387753 390754 391757 393760 392764
      389767 387772 384777 373794 371800 367804 357814 354819
      352824 349830 346835 340841 330846 325850 324855 323860
      324866 331866 337863 343861 345859 348862 349864 350868
      353870 359869 364867 374868 379868 384870 402878 411882
      419882 424879 431879 436877 444875 452875 456877 457881
      458885 458894 458899 457903 460910 463908 465903 468895
      470887 473882 476876 478875 479870 479867 477865 477861
      478859 480854 483850 488847 498848 502850 508849 514843
      520831 522822 523813 520771 521750
 0.01 492256 493253 492252 492250 491248 490247 490246 489244
      488243 487242 486243 485245 484245 484246 485248 486249
      487250 488252 488253 489255 490256 491256 492256
 0.01 408117 407105 403108 398106 396110 393112 389105 389088
      387082 381080 377078 376076 374071 371068 370065 367061
      363056 360047 357035 354031 349028 346026 342025 339023
      336025 333028 327026 322028 318033 310040 302052 294060
      289061 281061 277065 276070 271084 269103 270116 276125
      288131 302130 308132 313135 321141 327146 336148 341151
      344156 354163 358165 362167 361170 356180 359183 362186
      366188 375194 378191 377184 376180 378177 380174 380170
      385168 383162 379160 376158 377153 379147 381141 386126
      389118 394115 398113 401113 405117 408117
 0.01 402141 402139 400139 398140 398141 398143 400144 400143
      402141 402141
 0.01 408070 408068 407067 405067 403067 401069 399071 397073
      397074 399074 401074 403072 405070 406070 408070 408070
 0.01 393071 393068 392068 391068 390068 389070 388070 388072
      389073 389072 390071 392071 393071
 0.01 383054 385052 383049 381048 379048 378048 376048 374048
      372048 370050 370052 370053 372054 374054 376054 377054
      379054 381054 383054 383054
 0.01 344173 345171 344170 343169 343168 341167 339167 339168
      340170 340171 341173 342174 344174 344173
 0.01 326181 327176 326171 323167 320164 316163 312163 310167
      313169 316172 318175 320179 322183 326181 326181
 0.01 312867 312864 312862 311862 310862 309863 308864 307865
      306866 306867 306869 306871 308872 309871 310870 311869
      312867 312867
 0.25 506746 506738 505730 503723 501721 496720 490721 478726
      470729 467728 462728 457728 453732 449743 444747 440745
      437742 434738 432736 429737 426741 424746 423758 427769
      430774 430778 429781 427783 422781 414779 410779 406780
      402784 397788 389792 383800 380808 380814 385815 397816
      403820 408826 414828 418828 424829 429831 435835 439836
      445835 449831 452826 455823 456817 460807 467808 478805
      483802 486798 490790 494781 499771 501765 502759 505752
      506746
 0.25 376708 374707 371709 369710 367712 364715 363717 361719
      360722 363722 365720 366718 369716 371714 373713 376710
      376708
 0.25 360132 362124 362117 362110 359103 360090 357084 354079
      350080 348075 346068 343063 334059 323062 314066 304071
      293073 289075 285080 285088 286093 290104 296112 299116
      305119 314122 320121 325122 333128 345132 349136 352137
      357134 360132
 0.50 491736 490734 489733 488734 486735 485736 483738 482741
      483743 484744 485744 486742 487742 488740 489739 490738
      491736
 0.50 462765 462764 460763 459763 458763 457766 458768 459769
      461768 462766 462765
 0.50 435754 435753 434751 433750 432752 432754 433756 435754
      435754
 0.50 344114 344109 343105 340099 338091 336082 333075 331073
      329072 327075 325081 323089 327096 330103 333108 336111
      338115 340117 344115 344114

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 475618 481621 486626 491630 495642 498652 502660 514670
      516673 518676 518682 517686 514695 511703 499716 492718
      488720 485723 478727 471729 465735 460743 451755 449758
      445761 442764 440768 434783 430790 428795 427798 422805
      417809 411810 409807 409801 411796 409790 407792 401796
      390808 384813 378816 361818 363815 366813 370807 376803
      379798 382795 411781 415779 418778 422771 422765 420761
      423753 429747 430740 427737 422732 416729 412723 407718
      399718 396720 392723 386727 378730 374733 371734 360736
      311771 307772 305769 305762 300758 295750 296731 301715
      307700
 0.01 522266 516258 513255 511250 507242 502241 502244 504249
      503254 501258 499257 497255 494253 491255 491260 493265
      496268 498274 500278 503281 506284 509285 513282 515278
      516275 519275
 0.01 545057 545049 546044 544041 541027 537018 529010 527007
      523004 522000 522995 522986 521980 519973 517967 514962
      507957 503954 497954 495957 495967 497972 500975 506985
      510998 508006 509016 512027 516031 518036 524047 527058
      531069 535072 537074 539073 542067 544060 545057
 0.01 525193 525187 523181 519179 517176 514173 511169 508166
      506172 508177 509181 512186 515190 518193 521195 524193
      525193
 0.01 496151 496147 494142 492138 492136 494135 496124 494112
      487096 486087 484082 482077 476073 473071 469070 466071
      463075 459082 459087 459092 461102 465110 469118 479131
      482133 484135 482137 480140 481145 483148 486151 494153
      496151
 0.01 496947 496939 496929 492919 487889 483879 477869 472858
      472855 469855 467856 455856 450859 450862 455862 459862
      460864 462868 460871 459876 456888 456906 458910 461915
      469920 475928 480931 481939 484950 487956 489960 493954
      496947
 0.01 453813 452809 449811 444812 440813 435815 430816 427817
      427824 431824 436823 439821 444820 447817 451816 453813
 0.01 425108 426093 424085 420083 414082 411082 409080 406077
      406073 405069 406062 401054 399050 395048 390047 387048
      385045 382035 381031 381025 383021 387016 395010 397007
      400001 405991 407988 407981 409976 409968 407958 405954
      402951 399948 394946 390944 385942 380941 377942 370947
      366949 364951 360952 350947 346945 343944 339943 337944
      333956 332960 328964 323971 314974 310976 304976 297976
      293979 290981 284981 281980 276980 270980 266984 262992
      260995 259002 259008 258012 259017 259023 259030 258034
      257039 254047 252051 247051 237049 234048 234051 231056
      229061 229066 227070 225075 224078 229081 238086 244092
      248099 251102 253104 251107 248110 243112 238119 238125
      239129 241133 243135 247135 251134 255134 272130 283128
      287127 294129 297132 299137 301145 308164 325172 335178
      343182 346180 352180 362178 366176 369172 375166 380160
      386153 392149 402144 404139 405133 404128 401125 403121
      404118 406117 408114 408111 416111 425108
 0.25 416638 418643 421644 424646 430644 440642 448644 464645
      468646 472650 476658 481665 483669 485676 484681 483687
      478696 474702 468709 460716 456722 451729 446728 444725
      442721 438718 430715 424711 417706 410701 402700 394700
      388701 383703 369714 362718 354724 350727 346729 337732
      330736 323742 319744 316742 315736 316731 320724 323715
      327707 329700 328692 332685 373656 375655 376654 378653
      379652 380651 381651 383650 385650 386649 388649 390649
      392648 393648 395648 397647 399647 400646 402646 404647
      402645 402644 400643
 0.25 508277 508275 507272 506272 504272 503273 504275 504276
      505278 506279 508277
 0.25 398111 399103 397097 392083 387070 384065 380060 372053
      370050 370045 371035 373020 375012 377003 377994 374992
      368993 362997 357999 352996 339995 335995 329997 323999
      316000 311000 305999 296998 288998 283001 282006 283023
      283040 281046 276050 257062 252065 250067 250072 253084
      255089 259093 268102 277110 287116 299120 313126 324132
      332141 341165 347167 354167 360166 363163 372156 376151
      379145 382138 385132 393122 398111
 0.50 470683 469676 466670 463664 459660 452653 447652 441653
      433661 426671 423675 421676 419675 417666 414661 411662
      407659 409653 412651 406653 403653 401651 401655 403657
      403661 406665 408668 410672 413675 418677 419684 422691
      424699 427702 436707 447708 459705 464701 467697 469690
      470683
 0.50 394680 392675 387673 379670 373670 367673 363676 360680
      353688 345694 348699 353700 362702 369702 375699 383694
      391688 394680
 0.50 388111 389104 388100 385095 384090 380081 376070 375066
      372063 363056 356051 351042 346036 342033 338031 333030
      331024 329020 325018 316018 305020 301019 297020 301027
      300032 300037 300041 298046 292052 283057 268065 264068
      262073 262080 263084 267091 275098 282104 289110 326125
      332130 341137 348143 354150 360150 363148 370142 372138
      373130 375124 377121 383115 388111
 0.50 360100 361095 360091 358082 355075 351069 346068 341074
      341083 344091 346098 347103 350106 355105 360100
 1.00 451689 450687 449685 449684 447683 446683 445681 444683
      444684 442685 441687 439689 439690 439692 439695 440696
      440697 442697 444696 445696 447695 448695 449694 450692
      450691 451689
 1.00 348121 349116 347112 343107 340100 338093 335086 330081
      327082 326087 325098 325103 327107 333112 338117 343122
      348121
 1.00 332058 332055 330055 329055 327055 325057 324059 324061
      326061 328060 329059 330059 332058 332058
 1.00 287085 287083 287081 287079 287078 285077 283076 281077
      280077 278077 276077 274078 273079 273081 273083 273084
      275085 275086 277087 279087 280088 282088 284087 285087
      286085 287085

$$





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