Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 081900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EST MON FEB 08 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 09/0000 UTC THRU FEB 10/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...COASTAL LOW AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND TODAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE RACING NEWD
THROUGH THE WRN ATLANTIC...WHICH MAY BE STARTING TO FILL. SHORT
TERM MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THE STORM IS AT OR NEAR PEAK INTENSITY
AND AGREE WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH 12Z/10...AT
WHICH POINT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE EXITED THE
NORTHEAST. A SHARP CUTOFF EXISTS WITH THE WRN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT FOR
NEW ENGLAND. AS THE 850-700 MB LOW PULLS AWAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL WEAKEN AND REMNANT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR NRN NEW ENGLAND AND LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW NEAR CAPE COD. WPC QPF FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 12Z NMM/ARW
AND 16Z HRRR FOR PLACEMENT OF MAXIMA...BUT REDUCED THE WRN EDGES
WHERE RECENT MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TOO HEAVY. SEE THE LATEST
WPC HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...QPFHSD...FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION.

...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF THE U.S. INTO THE DAY ON TUE WITH A POTENT MID-UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND NOSING
INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC EARLY TUE MORNING. 18Z STATION PLOTS
INDICATE LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN WRN NORTH CAROLINA
WITH AN EXPECTED STRENGTHENING THROUGH 06Z AS IT REACHES THE ERN
VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES OVER
THE GULF STREAM BY 12Z....RAPID REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED WITH AN INTENSITY NEAR 996 MB OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING WEST OF THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT.
IN ADDITION...AS THE CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER THE
NRN-MID-ATLANITC REGION BETWEEN 18-00Z...DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND
STEEP 700-500 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM ARE EXPECTED TO ADD
A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WITHIN A
MESOSCALE REGION...POSSIBLY FOCUSED OVER NRN MARYLAND INTO SERN
PENNSYLVANIA. QPF FOCUSED A 3-WAY BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM...12Z GFS
AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH EACH MODEL HAVING PROS/CONS. SOME OF THESE
ARE LISTED IN THE PMDHMD...BUT THIS 3-WAY BLEND WAS MODIFIED
TOWRAD THE 12Z NMM/ARW TO ATTEMPT TO NARROW THE FOCUS OF HEAVIER
QPF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED IN EXTENT.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICENT FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKLEY OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM -12C TO -21C BY THE
END OF THE DAY 1  PERIOD...00Z/10. MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FOCUSED WITH NLY FLOW JUST WEST OF A LINGER SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN
SRN LAKE HURON...AND ALONG THE NRN SHORES OF THE MICHIGAN U.P. AD
WELL AS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NRN INDIANA. SEE THE LATEST
WPC HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION...QPFHSD...FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION. A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ARW AND 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF WAS
USED FOR QPF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...

THE AIR MASS HAD DRIED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
WEEKEND SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH 17Z PWATS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...PER GPS DATA...ONLY NEAR .40 T0 .50 INCHES. WITH
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...RAP/12Z GFS FORECAST PWATS TO RISE
ONLY INTO THE 0.5 TO 0.6 RANGE CREATING LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY.
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THIS
EVENING...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW 0.25 INCHES WITH A BETTER FOCUS UP NORTH INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION WHERE BETTER CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT TERM NATURE
OF THE FORECAST...WPC QPF RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS FOR THIS REGION OF THE COUNTRY.

OTTO

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 10/00Z
 0.01 451627 455628 460628 465626 469623 474621 477625 483636
      483642 484649 483657 484662 486665 489670 490676 489680
      489688 487696 484705 482717 479730 477745 478752 477756
      477760 477768 476773 477777 479800 480819 481834 482851
      485865 482880 480894 475907 470917 466922 464923 462920
      458917 453916 445921 439921 432921 426921 422921 415919
      414917 411917 407915 403910 403908 396904 387899 384895
      382893 379893 371889 364890 360888 354888 350884 343874
      340869 335865 329859 333848 332843 333839 335835 338835
      342839 346838 349833 351828 354821 357816 361811 366808
      369802 370799 370795 366791 362789 358786 353787 349790
      343791 327805 320813 312822 304829 300832 297832 295830
      293826 292822 293817 293810 293804 295799 297794 298787
      296769 302759 307750 313740 322725 327716 334708 363672
      377661 388660 394669 396672 399671 401669 405668 412666
      416662 421651 425645 428639 432635 440630
 0.01 520070 516057 514050 507045 505044 503041 499033 506036
      513038 518036 519032 517028 514025 511024 504019 499018
      492019 483019 480017 476016 471013 464009 458005 450004
      442004 434003 429003 427006 427011 428016 428020 430022
      435023 434018 437014 444019 453027 458032 461035 465037
      468043 470046 474047 477050 479053 485058 497064 503068
      510074 515074 519072 520070
 0.01 421728 420719 416714 411713 410716 410721 409728 409735
      410744 413748 419752 421753 422749 420747 419742 419738
      420735 421728
 0.01 391929 389924 387922 384918 382915 378911 375909 373909
      373916 375918 378922 382925 385927 389929 391929
 0.01 365757 361754 356751 351755 348759 345764 342770 341772
      343777 350774 354770 358765 361762 365757
 0.01 288837 288833 286831 285828 283826 281825 278825 277828
      278832 278834 280838 282840 284840 286839 288837
 0.01 272803 272799 268797 257798 252799 248801 244809 243819
      244825 247827 249825 251820 253817 253812 252808 254804
      257802 261801 264802 267805 270806 272803
 0.01 273073 273069 271064 267056 264047 258041 255039 253040
      251044 248046 244054 245058 248062 253069 258073 261076
      267077 273073
 0.25 470646 469640 466637 463638 460640 456642 451642 445644
      440650 437659 436669 432677 428684 425688 425693 428702
      431705 434702 436694 437689 442687 446687 448690 451695
      454697 457699 460696 464688 469681 469676 468671 467661
      469651 470646
 0.25 475882 475879 472878 469872 469863 467860 464861 463868
      467873 468883 468887 466893 465900 467903 470898 472892
      474885 475882
 0.25 462822 461818 460815 457810 452807 449807 446810 444815
      441816 438815 434813 428811 425815 422817 423822 426826
      428833 431838 435838 438837 443835 449837 451842 448848
      449851 452850 456846 461844 462840 461834 460826 462822
 0.25 422867 422865 421863 420863 419861 417862 416863 416865
      416868 417869 419869 421868 422867
 0.25 413781 413774 410771 407768 404762 399750 396742 392739
      392733 392726 389711 383708 382706 382702 384688 383684
      380680 375679 370682 362690 355700 341715 335724 329735
      325744 322755 320760 320767 323770 329767 336761 343753
      351744 357734 361726 363720 364717 368717 373717 375718
      375720 374727 375733 376737 374742 376747 378753 382758
      384764 385773 386781 392785 394787 393792 386799 382805
      380809 381816 383822 385827 389831 392829 394824 397821
      400821 401819 401815 402806 404799 408789 413781
 0.25 262064 262063 262062 261059 259058 258057 258055 257055
      256055 255055 255056 255057 257058 258059 258061 259062
      259063 260065 262065 262064
 0.50 436823 435821 434819 433818 432817 430818 430819 430821
      430822 431824 432824 434824 436823 436823
 0.50 403776 401770 401765 398757 394753 389739 388733 387729
      389725 388719 384715 384719 380724 378729 378734 379739
      380743 383747 386753 390760 393773 397778 398780 402779
      403776
 0.50 395805 394803 393803 392803 390805 390806 391808 392808
      394807 395805
 0.50 377689 376687 373687 371689 370693 369696 369698 369702
      370705 373704 375701 376698 377696 377691 377689
 0.50 352731 352726 349723 348720 344718 340723 335730 332735
      331738 331744 332749 334752 334756 337755 341750 346745
      349742 350738 352731

$$




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