Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 280623
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
222 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 28/1200 UTC THRU MAY 29/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...UPPER MIDWEST/GT LAKES...
WEAKENING UPR TROF IS FCST TO LIFT NEWD FROM THE CNTL PLAINS INTO
THE UPR MS VALLEY/WRN GT LAKES REGION BY SUN MRNG.  A GENERAL
WEAKENING TREND IN THE OVERALL PCPN SHIELD IS EXPECTED WITH
VEERING LOW LEVEL INFLOW TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPR TROF AND
ASSOCD COLD FRONT. THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE REMNANT 85H/7H CIRC AS IT MOVES ACRS PARTS OF
ERN SD/NRN IA/SRN MN REGION.  A BLENDED/ENSEMBLE APCH TO QPF WAS
GENLY USED HERE ALONG WITH CONTINUITY GIVEN MODEST MODEL SPREAD IN
QPF.

...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BNDRY PUSHING SWD ACRS THE NRN GULF EARLY
THIS MRNG WILL CONTINUE TO DISRUPT INFLOW FARTHER N AND AHEAD OF
SRN PORTION OF CNTL U.S. UPR TROF/SHEAR AXIS WHERE HRRR RUNS HAVE
AT LEAST A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR ONGOING TRENDS.  MODELS SHOW
RETURN FLOW SURGE DVLPG OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH
COULD SUPPORT SOME INCREASED THREAT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION..PSBL
MCS DVLPMENT SAT NIGHT UNDER ANTICYCLONIC UPR FLOW AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING OUT ACRS NRN MEX.  MODEL SPREAD IS MODEST
HERE BOTH IN PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS BUT ALL GENLY TEND TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF ORGANIZED CNVTV THREAT.  OTHER STORMS LIKELY TO FORM
ALONG WEAK FRONT DROPPING SWD ACRS SRN MO INTO OK/WRN KS SAT NIGHT
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION DVLPS INTO THE BNDRY.  A BLENDED APCH WAS
USED HERE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY IN THE PD WHERE HRRR
GUIDANCE WAS PREFERRED.

...COASTAL SOUTHEAST...
TD #2 IS FCST TO TRACK NWWD TOWARD THE SC COAST BY SUN MRNG AS IT
TRACK ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST.  THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED BUT IS EMBDD WITHIN A
PLUME OF 1.75 TO 2+" PWS SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS PSBL AS
SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST..BUT AS OF NOW...TIMING SUGGESTS AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SC AND SRN NC
COASTS BY SUN MRNG.  SEE THE LATEST NHC OUTLOOKS FROM THIS STORM
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST---NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS
MODEST ONSHORE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF SLOW MOVING UPR LOW OVER SW
CANADA SHOULD SUPPORT SOME MDT PCPN AMOUNTS INTO THE OLYMPICS/NRN
CASCADES OF WA THIS PD AS AXIS OF .75 INCH PWS IS FOCUSED INTO THE
REGION.  VERY LITTLE MODEL SPREAD HERE SO GENL ACCEPTED MODEL
CONSENSUS AMOUNTS OF .50 INCH AND GREATER ACRS THIS REGION.
FARTHER E...A WEAKENING NEG TILTED UPR TROF WILL HELP SPREAD
SHWERS/TSTMS ACRS THE NRN PLAINS BEFORE ENERGY LIFTS NEWD INTO
ALBERTA/SASK PROVINCES SAT NIGHT.  MODELS HAVE SHOWN DECENT
AGREEMENT HERE WITH PRIMARY FORCING AND HENCE THE MORE ORGANIZED
PCPN LIFTING INTO CANADA THOUGH SCTD LOCALLY INTENSE CELLS ARE
LIKELY TO DVLP INTO PARTS OF ERN MT..ERN WY..AND THE WRN DAKOTAS
ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN/EVENG.

...CA..GT BASIN..CNTL ROCKIES...
SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND EAST OF DVLPG MID LEVEL UPR
TROF OVER CNTL/SRN CA WITHIN AXIS OF NEG LIS EXTENDING FROM PARTS
OF CNTL/SRN CA EWD THRU NV/UT INTO CO.  MODEL QPFS GENL AGREE ON
LIGHT AREAL AVG AMOUNTS. A GENL MODEL BLEND WAS USED.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 29/12Z
 0.01 553130 553122 551114 553108 552102 548095 549078 547065
      542051 534030 530021 526013 520006 514001 501993 484987
      479987 476987 477983 482977 488970 495975 502980 508983
      510983 511980 513975 515970 517965 521965 527973 535971
      540970 543971 547971 549967 553958 552941 551932 548921
      545906 542893 536871 529843 525830 524825 523818 518793
      516782 515776 514773 505753 495735 483715 480706 474700
      466697 463698 461700 459706 458713 458720 459727 459734
      459739 458744 454752 445768 433784 430788 429781 429771
      430765 435761 442755 445747 446743 445735 441726 439723
      438718 437709 436703 433699 426693 422699 416704 413708
      412713 411723 412730 411735 407745 405750 403755 401764
      390782 386789 382797 380808 378814 374819 370829 368839
      371840 376838 377845 373849 365854 361857 362865 360869
      354874 348879 343882 337884 330884 327884 325881 323877
      321874 317874 306875 301876 296878 291881 288885 278902
      275910 273912 273917 272928 271940 275962 275968 277971
      277974 279975 282972 283967 283959 282947 283936 283933
      285928 294907 297906 298910 297914 295925 296935 297941
      299945 302947 305948 311943 315941 317937 322928 325919
      327914 330911 334909 340907 351906 359905 367900 376896
      379894 383893 384896 380900 377904 373908 371914 355944
      346963 345969 344973 346980 348987 350992 351998 354002
      355006 358009 365014 370017 377017 388018 390016 388013
      388009 387006 382004 377001 373997 369990 366986 365981
      363976 363969 365959 368952 372944 375941 380943 386949
      391954
 0.01 391954 395961 397967 398979 399983 399987 401993 406996
      418001 449004 450013 448016 445017 440016 437018 434018
      418017 413015 408020 400030 397033 394039 390045 389048
      385049 379051 377061 371061 364061 366065 369066 373068
      373077 374080 377081 388089 388086 385081 387077 389076
      393082 395087 397085 397081 399078 404077 411078 415074
      417066 418057 418050 415042 414040 411040 406046 402045
      403042 410033 413031 416031 419030 423030 422038 424044
      427046 430048 438049 459060 465065 468070 471078 475083
      483091 494098 517112 527119 531122 537124 543125 547128
      553130
 0.01 537202 539184 537177 534173 528166 522157 491134 483128
      477126 472128 471128 471132 470138 480140 483141 486143
      485147 483148 474151 470153 468157 473163 476164 477167
      480171 485175 487180 485184 485192 488193 485197 485202
      482203 479205 474208 471211 465216 460223 464228 461230
      454240 451244 453248 462248 471255 479263 483272 488280
      492285 496287 501291 505291 511287 517277 520272 522265
      524260 526251 532225 532218 534211 535204 537202
 0.01 469108 468102 469095 469090 466092 463095 461096 459094
      457096 455097 453095 451095 448099 446102 441103 440115
      441120 442123 451124 457118 459112 462114 468110 469108
 0.01 453078 451076 451075 450075 448073 446072 445070 443069
      441069 440069 441072 443074 444075 446075 448077 448078
      449078 451078 453078 453078
 0.01 434799 432797 430798 429798 428800 429802 431804 432802
      434799
 0.01 399211 398204 396201 393197 390192 387184 389179 394178
      400170 401158 405148 405142 405137 404131 404129 407124
      408117 410098 410096 407095 404098 401103 395103 391109
      386110 382110 378114 377120 376128 376132 377132 380131
      382129 383132 384138 379139 377141 380144 381148 380152
      379156 380158 380161 380165 382163 385164 384168 378175
      375176 373174 369175 366176 361176 357177 351176 347172
      347169 345167 340165 336166 344178 345175 348175 348182
      343195 345199 347201 351198 352190 353187 355187 358188
      368193 381205 386208 391210 399211
 0.01 370777 370769 368764 362756 350746 347742 343740 334738
      325738 322740 320743 318749 316752 308758 304761 301762
      299762 296766 294770 294776 296784 294789 290795 285798
      279798 270795 266785 263786 260789 253795 248802 248808
      249813 253816 256819 262823 265827 268826 274825 278826
      283826 286824 284819 281817 277816 276814 278811 282807
      288806 297805 301807 305810 311816 320819 327820 332819
      336819 342819 345818 352815 355813 359806 363798 367786
      370777
 0.01 341976 341971 339969 334965 327964 321966 315968 309972
      299979 277989 270992 263994 258992 250990 243989 238988
      235989 232995 232003 236008 242011 248013 254015 262015
      269019 275021 281023 297025 305026 310026 318024 324022
      336017 337009 333003 332000 333997 335991 336985 337980
      341976
 0.25 539097 539093 538089 534084 525076 519072 513073 507074
      503074 500073 494070 487069 485071 486075 490079 501087
      507084 513087 517093 522098 526103 531107 534108 537107
      539097 539097
 0.25 542928 541916 539906 537896 533888 526876 521872 518871
      516866 514854 514842 513835 512828 510817 508809 506800
      505777 502768 499760 492743 485728 481723 477722 475726
      474731 473737 474746 467763 466772 467779 464797 464808
      463817 462829 463840 463850 460856 455860 449865 445871
      441878 436885 431888 426885 422884 420886 416892 414903
      411911 412916 413919 415923 419925 424931 427937 424944
      419961 420968 421973 424980 426982 431985 440985 447983
      452980 454976 454970 452963 451950 451939 455930 457927
      460925 485914 491911 494911 496914 498918 502920 510919
      516922 520926 530938 534940 539936 541932 542928
 0.25 516272 518265 518258 516247 512237 509229 503220 499214
      496210 491207 484209 481212 479215 480218 486225 489228
      490233 490236 489238 485239 482237 479232 477230 475232
      472234 470237 470241 472246 474250 478252 483255 486258
      492265 503279 506282 509280 514275 516272
 0.25 524200 525195 525190 522184 519180 515176 510173 505172
      503174 503177 508182 511186 515190 518196 522201 524200
 0.25 437840 435833 431832 419832 410833 405834 403836 400842
      397845 390853 392857 395853 398850 401850 402852 409851
      413849 419846 425846 430848 434847 437840
 0.25 380192 380191 379190 378189 376188 375187 374186 373186
      371185 370184 368184 367185 367187 369187 371189 373190
      374191 376191 378192 379193 380192
 0.25 363947 363945 362945 361947 360947 359949 358952 357953
      357954 357956 357957 358956 359955 360954 361952 362949
      363947 363947
 0.25 353773 353761 351758 348756 341754 335757 330763 325767
      318771 311774 303776 301779 300783 302788 304791 308797
      312802 318806 324810 331811 339812 343810 345807 347800
      349791 351783 353775 353773
 0.25 319003 318997 315997 310996 306993 299987 292986 288988
      280993 273999 269003 269007 273011 277013 283015 289015
      300014 309009 313007 318005 319003
 0.25 309928 309926 309924 309922 309920 310918 309916 308914
      306915 306916 305918 304918 304920 304922 304924 304926
      305928 306930 308930 309928
 0.25 271818 269814 266810 263807 259805 256804 252808 253810
      256814 259817 261819 265821 269820 271818
 0.50 511263 512258 512253 511247 506234 500222 492212 489211
      484214 483217 485220 489223 492229 494235 493241 490242
      486243 485248 486251 490256 493261 496263 497261 501262
      507265 511263
 0.50 533915 533912 532910 531907 531905 530904 529902 528903
      527904 528906 528907 529910 529912 530912 531915 531916
      533916 533915
 0.50 510895 510885 509873 507857 505838 503818 502811 502799
      502793 501783 500775 497767 492754 486741 483736 481734
      479737 477740 478745 478755 477762 474767 473773 472784
      472801 473816 475826 477832 483844 487856 489864 489875
      491879 493880 499880 501888 504894 507898 510895
 0.50 482244 481244 481242 480239 480236 479235 478233 478232
      476232 475232 474234 473236 473239 473241 473242 474244
      474245 476246 477247 479247 480247 481245 482244
 0.50 466903 465897 459896 451894 444895 438900 430906 428910
      428916 431921 434924 434931 433936 430947 427957 426969
      427974 429977 433978 437978 445973 447970 447963 446952
      446937 445929 444925 445919 447915 450913 455911 458910
      462908 466903
 0.50 345776 344769 340767 333769 329771 321776 314781 309778
      305780 305784 307786 312796 316801 319804 323806 329807
      335804 338801 340799 340795 341790 344779 345776
 0.50 302006 302000 300998 297995 291995 286995 283997 280001
      279005 282008 287010 292010 296011 300009 302006
 0.50 266817 266816 264816 262816 262817 264817 266817 266817
 0.50 258807 256807 255808 256810 258809 258808 258807
 1.00 504244 504241 503238 502238 501235 500232 498231 498232
      498234 498235 498237 499239 499240 500242 501243 502244
      503245 504244
 1.00 496832 496824 496817 495802 492790 489779 487777 485778
      484783 483789 482794 479804 480814 483826 488836 491837
      495835 496832
 1.00 440954 439952 439949 438947 438946 438947 437949 435951
      435952 435954 434957 434959 435959 437957 438955 440955
      440954
 1.00 334798 335794 334791 333785 331781 328778 325780 321782
      317785 315788 315794 317797 319800 323803 327803 331802
      334798 334798
 1.00 296006 295004 293003 291004 293005 294006 295006 296006
 1.50 332796 332791 331789 329786 327784 323784 320786 318787
      317791 317792 319795 320797 322799 325801 327801 329800
      331798 332796
 2.00 330794 330792 330791 329790 328788 327788 326787 324787
      322787 320788 319789 319791 320793 321795 323797 324799
      325799 327799 328798 330796 330795 330794

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