Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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459
FXUS04 KWBC 291854
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 30/0000 UTC THRU JUL 31/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

LOWER LAKES---MID ATLANTIC---CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

THE NEXT AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM THE MS VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL ENHANCE
PRECIP CHANCES DAY 1 FROM THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  PW VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
ACROSS THESE AREAS---PEAKING IN THE 1.5-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THESE AREAS.  OVERALL---THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS---WITH ONLY SOME
DETAIL TIMING DIFFERENCES EVIDENT.

OH VALLEY--MID MS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS.

THERE IS MORE MODEL QPF DETAIL SPREAD WESTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSITION STRETCHING ALONG THE OH VALLEY---INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AXIS OF HIGH PW VALUES IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS FRONT.  CONFIDENCE LOW WITH SHORTER TERM QPF
DETAILS...WITH WPC`S DAY 1 LEANING TOWARD THE HI RES ARW GIVEN
OVERALL GREATER CONFIDENCE WITH THIS MODEL.  AREAL AVERAGE
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS LIKELY IN THIS AXIS--WITH ISOLATED
RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION DOES BECOME ORGANIZED.

SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN

MONSOONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INCREASE DAY 1 OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN AND AROUND THE PERIPHERIES
OF THE SOUTHWEST CLOSED HIGH.  VORTS AROUND THE PERIPHERIES OF
THIS UPPER HIGH WILL ENHANCE UPPER DIFFLUENCE---SUPPORTING
INCREASED SCATTERED MONSOONAL ACTIVITY.  CONFIDENCE LOW WITH QPF
DETAILS---WITH MODERATE TO ISOLATED TOTALS POSSIBLE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 31/00Z
 0.01 544179 544176 542172 539169 535167 525157 516144 511140
      508138 505139 503140 500143 499147 498154 500175 502183
      504187 507190 517201 523204 526206 529208 533209 535207
      538199 541190 542183 544179
 0.01 515248 515243 514237 513231 513225 510220 507216 504214
      503220 503226 504231 506236 507241 509246 511250 514249
      515248
 0.01 506972 506964 505958 504954 501950 499947 496946 487946
      483946 480949 477951 475955 476967 478978 470981 465986
      460986 454984 448981 445980 443978 438978 432977 428978
      424978 419975 409975 405972 403974 401974 393970 386970
      381963 376957 374953 372948 371926 373921 373916 375912
      375906 377884 382859 387852 390847 393844 397843 400846
      402850 403854 403863 404873 402882 399892 399897 400901
      401906 405908 411914 412923 410928 413931 419931 430931
      445925 445921 443916 442911 442904 441888 440876 439872
      439865 440856 442851 444847 442834 439825 436814 435799
      435788 433763 432750 428738 425731 421729 416728 411730
      406737 398741 391744 384747 376750 367752 359757 353764
      348768 342775 339784 344790 348794 353795 357797 359800
      359803 357813 355818 350820 344853 338853 333852 325850
      314839 304825 299819 294814 280805 272801 267801 261800
      255800 250802 248805 249808 253814 249818 253825 261829
      267831 274835 281840 287845 290847 291851 292862 291888
      290895 289899 289912 291923 291929 290934 287940 284947
      282957 279966 279970 281973 284975 288975 293972 296969
      300961 306952 311945 316938 323935 326932 329933 336936
      337943 335949 334956 335966 338973 341976 342981 342993
      343004 343010 344014 347025 350034 351041 350044 347048
      349051 353054 355059 354065 353068 350068 335071 329076
      323080 320084 315083 309079 297067 292061 296054 298047
      299041 298036 294029 288022 279021 274019 269019 247013
      244012 239015 230021 225052 226058 225064 225068 226074
      228078 230081 233085 235087 238090 241092 245095 248098
      251101 253105 253106
 0.01 253106 262116 267121 272124 302126 307126 310125 314122
      316118 319116 325114 330115 332118 335125 339131 347135
      356136 363138 370141 374148 380161 383168 392169 415158
      419149 415143 413141 408140 401138 396133 392127 397122
      402120 409117 410114 411109 411103 410099 407096 404097
      400102 396108 390111 383112 382110 378109 372104 368102
      365101 357104 352103 350100 347095 345092 346088 349081
      354075 357074 362074 373085 378086 381083 384078 387072
      387069 387066 389066 391068 396069 400065 409050 419041
      431035 440037 442039 447039 451039 454038 460034 472028
      474026 476022 479014 482000 484996 485990 484984 483981
      485980 497980 502978 504976 506972
 0.01 440012 434009 432007 430009 427009 425011 418010 415006
      411003 408998 404996 401996 398996 396998 389997 385997
      382999 381001 381005 386017 391020 393022 397022 402021
      406020 409019 414019 420017 426018 430018 434016 438015
      440012
 0.25 529183 529180 528177 526174 524171 522168 521167 519167
      519170 518174 518177 518180 519183 520186 523188 526188
      528185 529183
 0.25 433864 434853 432842 431833 429821 428811 427803 427794
      428784 428778 427773 424765 419747 415743 407744 396753
      384761 373770 370775 367782 368795 372802 375808 373815
      370819 373821 387824 390824 393826 398832 402835 406841
      409849 410859 412867 415875 419881 421885 425884 429873
      433864
 0.25 370028 371022 371017 369008 369003 370999 371991 369983
      367974 361956 360947 361938 359921 360912 363903 365895
      369887 370878 369869 366860 364849 363845 361846 356852
      354855 353860 353870 354881 354892 354904 353914 351923
      350929 348932 346952 345960 345969 348978 350987 354004
      356025 358030 363033 368031 370028
 0.25 344114 344109 343104 342098 340093 339089 337089 336095
      336099 334102 334106 337109 340112 344114 344114
 0.25 316896 315894 313893 309895 307899 304902 300903 299907
      300912 302916 304918 308917 311913 312909 314905 312901
      315898 316896
 0.25 303106 303100 302094 295086 283068 277060 270052 263045
      253039 244034 238033 233035 231038 229045 228049 229057
      233066 239074 246081 255088 263094 272102 279107 289112
      294113 298111 301109 303106
 0.25 300952 300947 300943 299943 297947 297949 296952 294954
      291956 290958 290962 292963 294960 296958 297956 298954
      300952
 0.25 284827 283827 282826 280826 279825 279823 278823 276822
      276821 274822 275824 275826 276828 278828 280828 282828
      283827 284827
 0.25 269816 268813 267810 265808 262807 260806 256806 254806
      253808 255811 257813 258814 260815 263817 266818 269816
 0.50 422784 422779 421775 417769 413761 409756 405755 400757
      394761 388765 384772 380777 377785 377793 379795 382796
      386797 388801 388807 387810 389813 394811 399810 401813
      408814 413819 415823 418824 421817 422812 422806 422796
      422784
 0.50 422851 422844 420839 417835 415832 412833 408833 409838
      410842 413847 415849 418853 421853 422851
 0.50 366990 364981 362974 359967 355960 350956 348958 347963
      349971 351980 353988 357994 361995 365994 366990
 0.50 297099 296094 293091 290088 289083 285076 280069 275063
      268057 254047 248043 244040 240039 237040 234042 232047
      232053 235060 240067 252078 258083 265089 272093 281096
      289098 295100 297099
 1.00 415790 414786 413783 411779 409777 408775 407773 405771
      401770 401774 402776 404778 405783 407785 408788 410790
      412792 415790
 1.00 278084 277079 275075 273072 270068 268066 265064 262065
      259067 260072 262076 265079 268083 270085 275085 278084

$$





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