Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 290701
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 29/1200 UTC THRU APR 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...HIGH RISK OF FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...MISSOURI...

A MAJOR CENTRAL U.S. STORM WILL PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A PROLIFIC
AND LIFE-THREATENING RAIN EVENT TODAY. WPC QPF TOOK THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND TRENDED TOWARD THE 00Z NAM CONUS NEST AND WRF-ARW.
THE ARW MAY BE A BIT DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE BEST SYNOPTIC
FORCING...SO WE ADJUSTED IT BACK WEST TO FIT THE BETTER CONSENSUS.
OVERALL THE GLOBAL MODELS...ETC...SHOW VARIABILITY IN PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BUT THEY ALL HAVE A SIGNAL FOR AREAL
AVERAGE 7 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. THE
ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS INFORMATION BASED ON THE NAEFS HAS
AN AWFUL LOT OF 99TH PERCENTILE AND MAX VALUES FOR INTEGRATED
VAPOR TRANSPORT WITHIN THE CONVEYOR BELT. AMPLIFICATION OF THE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL ALSO RETARD EASTWARD
PROGRESSION...RESULTING IN VERY INTENSE AND PERSISTENT RAINFALL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WE SUSPECT WILL BE CENTERED
AROUND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL TRENDS.

THIS WILL REQUIRE AN EXPANSION OF THE HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. REFER TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ROCKIES / HIGH PLAINS...

A VERY DEEP...3.5 STANDARD DEVIATION...MID LEVEL CYCLONE WILL WRAP
UP AND SLOWLY PIVOT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR ANY DRY SLOT TO WRAP THAT FAR
NORTH...MEANING LIFT WILL BE SUSTAINED OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME.
WE THEREFORE INCREASED RAIN/SNOW TOTALS...WITH ABOUT A HALF INCH
ADDITIONAL LIQUID FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO ADJACENT OK/KS AND
UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. QPF WAS DERIVED FROM WPC
CONTINUITY BLENDED TOWARDS THE WRF-ARW AND NAM CONUS NEST...AND IS
ALSO FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

WPC TOOK A CONSENSUS APPROACH TOWARD LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 534203 535196 534192 534185 532181 528176 524170 517158
      507148 496138 485129 480127 474126 471128 469130 469134
      467135 463136 461139 457147 458155 457162 453168 449173
      452178 452182 450185 445191 443198 448199 454196 456194
      460193 468195 473194 477187 479183 481182 485184 486188
      487191 487197 482202 471206 465207 458207 452211 450212
      446213 433217 431219 430222 427231 423236 418240 418244
      420248 422251 426253 434254 437253 441255 453262 447278
      446284 444289 442299 442303 442308 443312 446315 452318
      457315 461311 466306 470300 473298 477297 483297 485297
      488294 508283 513277 517270 520261 521248 521239 519235
      519229 527220 529216 530208 534203
 0.01 533939 533931 531926 528924 524927 519935 515944 512955
      510966 507975 504988 500997 496007 495010 495016 496019
      494023 493028 493031 496034 498034 497040 494053 491063
      487072 484076 481078 477081 476085 474091 471091 465098
      465104 467108 471108 474105 477104 480100 483097 485095
      488096 495102 497102 500098 502093 506091 508088 510083
      512076 512070 514040 514032 516027 520028 523031 526030
      528024 529013 529004 528998 526993 524990 523986 524982
      526977 529968 530964 530958 530952 533939
 0.01 480670 479662 477656 475651 473646 469643 465641 457639
      442653 438660 436666 438672 432679 430684 426686 418691
      411697 406703 404707 402707 401704 387697 384697 380701
      378702 378705 379712 381720 382724 384730 385737 385750
      384761 382772 379780 378785 379787 376791 372794 357806
      351811 347817 338830 336835 335841 334843 338848 341850
      347849 352842 367829 378818 383810 386809 386812 384816
      381822 379826 379832 377854 375860 372864 366870 352882
      336893 329898 322901 303909 274925 268929 265938 263943
      263946 265958 268966 273975 275979 279982 280988 281993
      283997 286000 295004 298007 301011 304018 306023 309026
      307036 299051 297055 295056 294053 294049 292045 288046
      287051 285055 284062 283065 280064 277061 268057 264059
      265064 267069 270072 262075 261078 264082 271087 274092
      277095 282096 286095 290096 295096 300095 304093 307088
      308085 309080 310074 312070 313058 312055 311052 313050
      315047 320044 323055 329063 333071 334073 334077 332079
      336081 337088 338093 341096 347097 350096 353093 355087
      362090 366088 368084 370082 373082 378083 381081 383076
      387075 394069 398067 401067 406065 411063 413059 411055
      407045 406039 407033 408025 410019 416012 426999 434981
      443963 447955 451945 454923 451898 450891 451885 453870
      455859 457849 461823 463811 464798 461773 457762 455755
      450757 448760 445769 443771 440771 435770 429762 420741
      418736 421734 427732 431733 436732 439728 444720 449712
      452703 458685 460675 460669 461662 465663 467665 472675
      474680 477677 480670
 0.01 284804 281800 278799 270797 259797 253800 251802 248805
      246809 245813 245819 247824 249820 251811 254808 258806
      267804 274806 278807 282806 284804
 0.25 512268 513261 514254 514249 512244 509236 507228 504220
      499212 493208 485206 459216 452219 450221 448226 451228
      455227 461226 469226 476223 481224 487229 489233 485234
      478230 471230 465234 459235 451235 448236 445238 444240
      446243 450244 460246 466252 467255 467261 465272 465279
      466283 470285 474286 487284 494282 497281 501281 504280
      504274 502265 502261 503256 507260 512268
 0.25 522194 518189 516183 513178 509173 504169 498169 496172
      497174 501180 504185 508190 512194 516195 522194
 0.25 519968 519965 518964 518965 517968 518970 519968
 0.25 451843 451834 449829 446824 442820 435818 429817 426812
      421790 418787 414789 411793 409792 405796 404803 405809
      407813 404821 398830 394833 393834 392832 392821 389819
      387824 385834 384840 383843 384847 385852 382857 372873
      367881 361886 352892 346896 330907 321912 313916 304918
      299920 295924 285937 285941 287945 294952 294961 294965
      292972 291977 291984 293987 296989 305994 310995 313993
      315993 313998 313002 315008 316011 319013 321012 326003
      340990 346987 351986 355985 359987 361992 360998 358003
      353011 349022 345031 339037 337042 336049 336053 337058
      340062 344065 349067 355067 362064 368056 373055 378055
      381056 384053 392050 394045 395039 400028 405019 410012
      415001 424983 428975 430970 430964 431956 433952 437947
      437940 434930 434922 435916 439891 442880 445870 447864
      449855 451843
 0.25 290085 290083 290081 288081 286083 284085 286087 288088
      289087 290086 290085
 0.25 286089 286087 284085 283086 284087 285089 286089 286089
 0.50 510257 508245 505233 503226 501222 497217 494215 483209
      478210 474214 474217 480219 486221 489224 493235 496241
      500245 503249 505253 508258 510257
 0.50 502275 499263 497254 493245 490240 485238 481241 479238
      476236 474237 472241 473247 475252 477261 481270 481277
      484279 491276 498276 502275
 0.50 448843 447838 445834 442831 437831 430835 424840 417837
      411835 401836 396840 379869 370881 366886 360892 353896
      346900 334909 320917 314920 307922 299925 297928 294932
      294939 296943 299946 304951 305954 304957 301965 300969
      300975 303979 306980 311986 317983 322982 326984 331989
      338987 344984 351982 358978 362975 366976 368979 369985
      369991 367997 364005 361011 358018 355027 353033 351035
      346042 342049 340052 340055 344061 350065 354064 357060
      360054 364052 367048 372049 377049 379048 382045 386037
      391032 396026 404014 409006 412997 419980 420975 420969
      419958 419947 421940 424929 427920 433903 437883 442866
      448843
 1.00 501238 501235 501233 500231 499230 499228 497226 496226
      495228 495231 496233 496235 498236 499237 499238 501238
      501238
 1.00 495265 495264 495262 494259 493256 493255 492253 492252
      491250 490250 489249 488249 487250 486251 487253 487254
      488257 489260 490263 492265 493266 495265 495265
 1.00 439854 440847 439843 434844 432847 428851 423856 417859
      413856 408851 401851 393853 389859 381871 366892 360896
      355900 343906 333915 323921 317924 310926 304929 301930
      299935 300939 303941 310941 314942 317945 314952 311958
      307964 308968 314971 322972 331971 341978 348980 354978
      363968 369966 376968 379983 378994 375001 368013 365020
      365025 366030 369035 373037 393018 397013 401007 406993
      408986 408977 405959 404950 407942 410937 415933 419926
      422919 427904 435876 438864 439854
 1.50 436856 435852 431857 425867 418876 415877 413873 410869
      408861 406855 402855 398860 396862 394860 391860 386869
      383875 379879 375882 371887 364896 356901 345907 337915
      323928 317932 309932 305933 304937 306937 318936 324937
      326943 314965 317966 321967 326967 337966 341969 344976
      348979 353976 361967 368961 377954 382954 388956 393943
      394941 390938 391933 391926 393920 394917 398917 401920
      407921 409927 412927 414925 417920 420914 422900 424893
      427887 432876 435866 436856
 1.50 398991 398985 394984 390990 385999 380006 375012 372015
      370019 370024 373028 376028 379025 384017 390011 395004
      396000 397993 398991
 1.50 397965 397963 396962 395961 394961 393962 391963 389965
      388968 387969 387970 387972 389974 391974 392972 393972
      394970 394969 396968 396967 397965
 2.00 408878 408872 407867 405859 400863 396868 388879 385882
      382882 378883 375884 366896 361900 357903 349907 344911
      335919 330926 329929 330934 332937 331942 328947 324954
      322957 323961 325963 330963 334963 343964 345971 347973
      350975 355971 360965 364960 373951 378945 382938 384933
      386924 388915 391908 399898 404885 408878
 3.00 387897 385893 379892 376889 372891 367899 364903 359905
      350910 342917 336924 334928 333930 335931 339931 340934
      338939 333947 330951 331956 336956 341959 354966 360958
      366952 372942 375929 380920 384909 386902 387897
 4.00 380904 379901 376898 372896 367903 362907 355909 350914
      344919 343922 346925 346928 345932 341939 340948 342951
      345952 346957 349959 353959 355957 361953 365947 369940
      371932 374924 377917 380904
 5.00 375914 376909 376904 374902 371901 367906 363909 356910
      352914 348918 347921 350922 349928 346932 343939 343943
      345946 348947 348952 348954 352956 357953 361949 364943
      368932 373918 375914
 6.00 373909 373906 370906 367909 363913 357912 353916 354921
      352926 349930 346934 345940 346944 351943 354943 352947
      351951 353952 357950 362941 366929 368924 370920 373909
 7.00 371911 369911 368913 367914 366916 367918 368919 368918
      369916 370914 371912 371911
 7.00 364927 363923 359922 355925 353927 350931 348934 346939
      348943 352941 356938 359936 362933 364928 364927
 8.00 362929 362927 361925 359926 357927 355930 353932 352934
      350938 354939 355937 357936 359934 362932 362929
 9.00 359932 359931 358932 359932 359932

$$





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