Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 231857
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
156 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 24/0000 UTC THRU NOV 25/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY TO THE ENTIRE
EAST COAST...

THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE HANDLING
OF THE 3 STREAMS OF H5 S/WV ENERGY COMPRISING THE POSITIVE TILT
TROF MOVING THRU THE CENTRAL AND INTO PARTS OF THE EASTERN STATES
THIS PERIOD..WITH A RATHER WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION EVENT STILL LIKELY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS H5 TROF.   THE
STILL WELL DEFINED SOUTHERN BRANCH S/WV NOW VICINITY OF THE LOWER
MS VALLEY WILL BE LIFTED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND SHEARED OUT INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING..AHEAD OF THE MORE NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AT THIS TIME.  THIS
SOUTHERN ROCKIES S/WV THEN ALSO GETS LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD AND
SHEARED WITH TIME THRU THE OH VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES
ON MONDAY..AHEAD OF YET THE EVEN MORE NORTHERN STREAM H5 S/WV NOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.   AHEAD OF LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES S/WVS..A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD..IN MANY PLACES 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN..ALL THE WAY FROM THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTHEASTERN STATES UP
THE EAST COAST AND FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES.  THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION
PATTERN ALONG WITH OVERALL STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING
MID/UPPER TROF IN GENERAL WILL SUPPORT THE AFOREMENTIONED
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION.  TO GO ALONG WITH THE
DECENT MODEL MASS FIELD AGREEMENT IS PRETTY DECENT QPF
AGREEMENT..SO ENDED UP STAYING CLOSE TO THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE DAY 1.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...

THE H5 S/WV NOW MOVING THRU THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND THEN DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ENHANCED LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO RATHER WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES DOWN
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES..AND ESPECIALLY SO IN THE FAVORED HIGHER
TERRAIN.  STUCK CLOSE TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 QPF FOR
PRECIPITATON DETAILS.  TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD..AN INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW INTO WESTERN WA STATE SHOULD SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN RAINS IN THE COASTAL RANGES AND SOME LIGHT SNOWS IN
THE CASCADES.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 25/00Z
 0.01 526255 527246 526239 527227 531224 535219 537210 538207
      537201 535193 533184 530177 525170 518161 509153 502146
      497143 493137 486129 481126 477124 474122 472119 474115
      476112 488119 494120 496114 496110 495106 492102 490101
      483093 478090 472088 469090 467095 463099 461099 459097
      455092 457084 461079 465070 466063 463057 460054 456049
      442031 439031 435035 434041 436049 436057 433064 431070
      429072 431075 432078 436076 439075 441077 451085 451089
      450091 446094 442092 438088 435088 435092 431090 429088
      425088 424092 428099 421107 419111 414111 411096 408093
      406093 405097 402103 399103 397106 394110 390114 392117
      398118 409119 417122 423125 428127 432123 435121 439120
      442122 442127 441135 439141 435149 435153 435157 437158
      443161 445167 448170 450177 445181 442187 445191 452193
      456189 461183 466180 473174 478173 482174 485176 492184
      495187 498193 502197 508200 512205 516211 518219 519223
      517225 514226 511223 505216 498209 494205 488202 483201
      479203 470206 461214 449216 445221 442224 442229 438235
      436237 432236 430239 429243 431243 443250 451258 458265
      465277 474288 483300 484302 487304 493307 497307 501306
      508301
 0.01 542896 542874 540849 539840 538831 536821 535811 535803
      534789 533776 530764 525746 523736 519726 515712 512704
      508696 506689 502683 495670 487657 478645 467634 462631
      456630 443634 436636 431638 429640 425642 423645 419649
      413659 396665 381676 369684 359692 355696 351701 342712
      340717 337722 328730 316739 305749 285768 281772 277778
      270788 271796 273797 278799 287798 291797 295799 295807
      294816 291823 282836 274847 267857 260868 255877 253884
      255892 256895 260895 265891 271886 278883 297863 304855
      308849 313845 326840 332838 338839 346840 352842 355844
      357848 360850 360854 360860 362864 364872 366875 366881
      367891 370905 371909 369913 364918 360923 357929 357937
      357943 360952 366958 372962 381965 384966 389966 395965
      403963 407961 444930 449928 456925 464925 471922 474920
      477920 484914 487912 490907 495904 499899 503900 503906
      502915 499925 497940 496943 496948 498955 500957 504957
      512958 515957 519955 523950 529946 533938 539923 541909
      541901 542896
 0.01 428063 427058 422057 418057 412059 405054 399055 392052
      388050 384049 380050 372050 364053 360055 357056 357058
      363059 366057 368055 372055 375057 373061 368061 366063
      369066 373071 373078 375083 378086 384085 387088 390088
      387084 385081 386077 394083 398085 400081 404077 408077
      413079 418077 420074 422067 428063
 0.25 530205 527196 525187 521178 517172 515171 511169 504169
      502174 503179 505183 507186 513191 517197 522203 525204
      530205
 0.25 519263 519252 517242 513234 508227 503221 497215 490216
      491224 491235 489237 485239 482240 480239 476237 473239
      473244 473249 476258 479267 483274 488280 495288 501291
      504291 508288 512282 516272 519263
 0.25 528822 528805 526783 524768 521751 518742 516735 513730
      509725 505720 501711 495699 489689 483679 477671 470661
      466656 462653 452650 447650 438652 430654 426661 421670
      415679 411684 406686 393690 380695 374698 368702 358712
      351720 339738 337740 332744 323750 315759 312763 309770
      309776 310783 312790 316798 315805 313809 309814 305818
      297825 291832 284841 278852 271864 269870 268875 276869
      284860 289854 297847 308840 318835 324832 332831 340829
      347829 351828 356826 365819 371812 379805 384802 390801
      396803 397808 396814 393827 388840 383849 382855 381864
      383877 385883 386891 385900 384908 382913 378920 375925
      373932 372937 373942 375949 379951 384952 393947 401941
      407933 411928 416924 421921 429919 440913 450907 458903
      468896 485886 496878 506869 514860 520850 524844 526839
      527831 528822
 0.25 484138 484136 484135 483133 482133 481132 479131 478131
      476130 474130 473130 472131 471133 471135 472138 473139
      475139 476139 477139 479139 480138 482138 484138 484138
 0.25 470158 471155 471153 471152 469150 467149 466148 464147
      463147 461147 459148 458150 458153 458154 459155 460156
      461157 463157 465158 466158 468158 470158 470158
 0.25 452100 451099 450098 448099 449101 451102 452100
 0.25 450112 449108 448104 446102 443101 439102 437104 435106
      434109 436112 437112 440112 443113 445113 447114 450112
 0.25 412073 412071 412068 410067 408067 407067 405066 403066
      401067 400069 399070 398071 397073 397074 399076 401075
      402074 403073 405072 406073 408074 410074 412073 412073
 0.50 515267 517258 516249 511238 504228 500224 497222 494224
      493230 495239 494242 492243 486244 483249 484258 486263
      489269 496279 502282 508280 511277 514269 515267
 0.50 450892 469882 486871 503855 515833 520815 518793 515774
      509757 497740 483723 475713 465714 459725 459742 458753
      453769 451774 445779 443783 440786 429798 426801 426806
      425811 422813 417818 412821 402835 396841 392849 391857
      393869 394883 392907 389916 385922 381928 382933 387932
      395932 400928 405921 410915 417910 424907 430904 437899
      450892
 0.50 455700 453696 450694 442691 438691 434693 426698 421705
      418708 414710 405714 403718 401723 396729 391738 391743
      392747 395751 398754 405759 408759 412757 415755 420753
      430750 436745 444737 446734 445728 440719 442714 445712
      450710 453706 455700
 0.50 384791 383785 379783 376785 373788 368796 361803 357808
      353811 350815 350818 354820 361815 367809 373803 379798
      384791
 0.50 379739 378733 375730 368727 363728 360730 352736 339747
      334753 330762 325768 324780 326790 328795 331798 335800
      337799 344794 358783 364777 366774 369769 369764 371760
      374757 376751 376744 379739
 0.50 319823 318819 314818 307821 301825 296830 291836 288841
      287846 290847 296843 301839 307835 313831 318826 319823
 1.00 513261 513260 511258 511257 510255 509254 509253 508253
      508256 508259 509261 509262 511263 512262 513261
 1.00 503270 502267 500264 499261 498259 496256 495254 492251
      490255 491258 492261 494264 496267 498270 499271 502272
      503270
 1.00 509810 510798 509793 507791 502791 499794 494799 488811
      484817 481827 476832 473832 471830 465825 460821 454820
      448823 442825 434828 426838 418852 416859 416869 415878
      415885 416891 418892 423891 427888 433882 437876 444867
      451862 460863 472858 477854 485851 496845 501840 506833
      509823 509810
 1.00 358765 358762 357759 353758 350761 347765 345768 342772
      341776 342779 345778 349776 352773 355770 358766 358765

$$




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