Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 011845
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 02/0000 UTC THRU AUG 03/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

COASTAL CAROLINAS---COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND

AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES---1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN---WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER TROF
STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES---SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY-TN
VALLEY REGION.  PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS---AND FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS---NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF MAX PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ABOVE COASTAL
AREAS--ALTHOUGH THERE IS MODEL SPREAD---ESPECIALLY AMONG THE HI
RES ARW--NMM AND NSSL WRF FOR HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS INLAND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC IN THE RIC---DC---BWI---PHL CORRIDOR.

EASTERN LAKES---UPPER OH VALLEY---CENTRAL APPALACHIANS---NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC

WHILE THE PRIMARY PW AXIS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST TO THE EAST OF
THE GREAT LAKES TO OH-TN VALLEY UPPER TROF---UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WITH THE COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS FROM THE EASTERN LAKES INTO THE UPPER OH
VALLEY---CENTRAL APPALACHIANS---NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION.
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE WITH RESPECT TO DETAILS--WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS.

SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS---SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHWEST

THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE RECENT
PATTERN FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND SOUTHWEST. POST FRONTAL EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPSLOPE AREAS
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES--WHILE UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL BE ENHANCED
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INT0 SOUTHERN AZ/SOUTHERN CA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GREAT
BASIN UPPER HIGH.   WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH QPF DETAILS---IT
IS HIGHER FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SOUTHWEST TX---INTO LARGE PORTIONS OF NM AND SOUTHERN
TO CENTRAL AZ IN THE PERSISTENT AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES---
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.

WA/OR CASCADES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN-NORTHERN
ROCKIES

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GREAT
BASIN UPPER HIGH WILL ALSO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE
WA/OR CASCADES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES
REGION.  LOW CONFIDENCE WITH QPF DETAILS HAS LEAD TO AREAL AVERAGE
LIGHT AMOUNTS DEPICTED ACROSS THESE AREAS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 557963 556946 553933 552927 547927 545929 544930 543928
      545923 550915 552908 553901 553893 549891 548890 546885
      546876 542867 534861 530861 526858 518853 510854 505857
      502861 499870 495883 493886 491893 491901 490909 490916
      488924 485934 482946 479961 479967 479975 480982 482984
      485990 487996 488002 488012 488017 485021 484027 486030
      489033 494036 499037 504037 507034 511030 514031 515035
      518041 521044 529050 532048 534043 536032 535024 536014
      537008 540002 549982 551976 554972 557963
 0.01 527183 529175 528169 525160 523155 518153 511146 508142
      504137 498131 483119 480115 478111 475099 472093 469092
      460096 457098 452097 450095 446094 442091 437090 429094
      427114 439120 441123 446123 450120 450127 447133 442134
      435141 435150 438158 441162 443165 442168 438165 435160
      431152 428149 425148 412164 406163 402160 396156 392153
      391150 394147 393143 390139 384140 380137 378134 378131
      362125 360126 360123 358118 353111 349101 349096 349089
      351085 354082 360077 368081 375085 384084 391080 397076
      400071 402066 401059 400055 398054 395050 390048 383044
      374041 368039 363036 358035 352035 348036 343035 339034
      335035 325035 320034 317032 311025 307017 303010 299004
      292998 290992 290987 288974 290964 294955 299947 305941
      310937 317932 323924 336911 339910 339908 341903 344895
      346890 345884 345872 346865 349862 356857 364849 367845
      371843 382859 388863 393865 397864 401860 403855 406845
      409836 410831 413830 417821 419811 422807 428805 435802
      442796 446793 448788 458770 462760 466751 470741 473735
      475723 476717 476710 476703 475694 472678 468670 462663
      460659 457657 454654 451654 446653 440655 430658 421663
      414670 411668 412672 410671 407672 403675 394680 388689
      377704 351726 325750 318757 311764 306770 301779 298789
      288790 283791 278790 269789 261789 253794 248800 245807
      247813 249815 255820 263825 270829 288837 292840 294844
      297847 298853 299867 299874 298879 293889 287897 282902
      282908 279912 274927 271937 268945
 0.01 268945 260964 261974 264985 265994 260995 256998 252002
      254007 255011 256018 256023 257027 261030 266032 269034
      267035 263037 258039 254042 249040 247041 238044 234047
      231052 235060 240066 245069 247073 253080 257084 260088
      268094 275100 287112 296117 300120 304123 300134 298139
      298147 312161 318169 322170 326172 336175 339171 338165
      330160 327157 327149 325137 325132 326129 329127 333126
      337129 345134 348141 354143 359146 361150 366151 371154
      378156 380161 382166 385179 387189 389187 390183 395175
      400171 404175 408184 415193 433189 446202 457187 462174
      464169 464166 462164 458152 458144 461140 469144 472146
      476144 479141 483143 485156 484171 487175 492179 495185
      496192 494197 488197 473203 466206 463210 465215 470216
      474215 484213 490212 495213 499211 500205 502197 505192
      512189 517190 522189 527183
 0.01 451728 449726 449724 447722 446725 444727 445730 444730
      443732 444735 445737 447736 448734 448733 450731 451728
 0.01 368802 366798 364796 362798 360801 360803 358806 355808
      354810 354815 357814 359812 360811 362809 365807 367804
      368802
 0.25 519936 519934 520931 520928 519926 519923 518923 517922
      516923 515925 515926 514929 514930 513931 513934 513936
      513939 514942 515942 516942 517940 518939 518938 519936
 0.25 437693 437686 434681 429678 425678 420679 415684 410690
      402695 392699 383706 376711 363724 350738 344744 336751
      331758 326766 323776 320785 315794 312803 313807 316811
      319815 323818 327819 332817 339810 349795 355788 359780
      383778 388777 391773 396765 406748 409745 412741 416731
      418727 421723 427716 430711 433704 437693
 0.25 428788 428784 426782 422783 417788 413791 409794 404799
      404806 407808 410807 415803 420799 423795 427791 428788
 0.25 379056 379051 375047 371044 365044 354046 350047 347045
      342044 336044 326046 316046 308041 300037 293035 287036
      284039 283043 282057 279060 275062 270062 266061 256057
      248057 245057 245060 249063 257067 265073 271079 287089
      289099 291103 295105 301106 304110 309117 312120 314125
      318129 322126 327118 330114 335113 343118 346121 349119
      343099 342089 341083 341076 342072 345067 349065 355065
      367066 375069 377060 379056
 0.25 319913 319905 315900 309899 302900 297903 293907 290912
      288917 285930 281942 280950 281953 283955 288952 292948
      298939 306930 314923 319913
 0.25 290025 292018 290014 287010 285007 282005 276004 273005
      270006 269009 271013 273017 276020 281022 284024 286027
      289027 290025 290025
 0.25 268820 266817 265815 263813 260811 258810 256808 254807
      251808 253812 254814 257816 259817 261818 263819 265821
      268820
 0.50 429697 428692 425689 421688 416691 403700 396704 388709
      375718 363729 352740 341752 337757 332765 329772 327781
      324788 321797 322804 326807 331806 336801 342794 352782
      356776 362770 368766 371766 375768 380771 387767 392761
      395758 398754 401747 406740 410733 414725 418717 423712
      427705 429697
 0.50 373053 372050 370048 367047 363047 362048 358049 356050
      354053 356057 358058 361058 363058 366057 368057 371055
      373053
 0.50 341104 341097 340090 334080 331078 329081 329075 330069
      332062 336056 341052 338050 334050 324052 311052 299047
      293048 291050 289054 285067 283069 279069 273066 267066
      270072 273077 279079 285081 290085 295089 302089 306089
      308093 309096 312101 315105 314107 313109 315111 317112
      320111 328103 341104
 0.50 308918 309916 308915 306915 304916 303917 301918 299919
      298920 298922 298924 298926 299928 301927 301926 303925
      303924 305923 305922 306921 307920 308918 308918
 1.00 415710 414706 413703 410704 408707 406713 402717 396719
      388720 381722 376725 358740 350747 342756 336767 332778
      330783 329790 331791 335790 340787 347778 355770 363762
      366760 369759 377758 384757 389753 397745 402734 406722
      407718 410715 415710
 1.50 394736 394734 394731 393730 392729 391729 391730 390731
      388732 388733 387735 388737 388739 389742 391742 393741
      393738 394737 394736
 1.50 380741 381736 379734 376734 372735 362741 352748 348752
      344757 340767 337773 336780 340781 344776 352769 359761
      364757 369754 375751 378746 380741
 2.00 364751 364746 361746 356748 351752 348756 345763 344768
      344772 349767 352764 357759 360755 364751

$$





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