Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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652
FXUS04 KWBC 251820
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
219 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 26/0000 UTC THRU JUN 27/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

WPC FOLLOWED A BLEND STRONG ON OVERNIGHT CONTINUITY OVER MOST OF
THE CONUS...BUT WITH SOME UPDATED AND MORE DETAILED INPUT FROM
REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED QPF GUIDANCE FROM 12 UTC NAM
CONEST...HRW-ARW...AND HRW-NMMB.

...SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST TO TX AND SRN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES...

A WELL DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO SAG THROUGH THE S/SE
US...BUT STAY MORE QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG THE WRN GULF COAST BACK
INTO TX/NM. POOLED MOISTURE CONTENT INVOF OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
YIELD SCATTERED TO MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS/STORMS...WHILE WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROUND THE SMALL COMPACT RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST TO ALSO ALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION AND WITH SOME HEAVY
RAINS. THIS SHOULD FAVOR SOME LOCAL DOWNPOURS FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS/OFFSHORE TO SERN/SRN GA AND FL TO SRN LA AND MUCH OF
SERN/SRN TX. ALL ALONG THIS AXIS. MEANWHILE BACK
UPSTREAM...GUIDANCE SHOW SMALL SCALE UPPER DYNAMICS TRACKING OVER
THE SWRN RIDGE INTO NM/TX PANHANDLE...WHERE A ELEVATED POOL OF
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN PRESENT. EXPECT WITH HEATING FOR
ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AND SCTD RUNOFF
ISSUES INTO MON.

...GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND...

A BROAD ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL STEER A SERIES OF UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
ACTIVE WESTERLIES FOR POCKETS OF INSTABILITY AND PERIODIC MODERATE
PRECIPITATION IN THE .1-.5" RANGE. A SHORT WAVE WILL PROCEED OVER
NEW ENGLAND THRU LATER TODAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN WI
AND THE U.P./NRN LOWER MI FOR A STREAK WITH POTENTIAL OF .5+"
RAINS.

...NWRN US...

A CLOSED LOW ALOFT OFF CA WILL APPROACH NRN CA AND OREGON INTO
MONDAY AS NRN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS UNDERNEATH A SEWD TRACKING ERN
GULF OF AK TROUGH ALOFT WORK INTO SW CAN AND THE NWRN US...BOTH
ACTING TO EASE THE CURRENT ANOMOLOUS EXCESSIVE HEAT EVENT. THE
LOWERING OF UPPER HEIGHTS AND BROAD UPPER DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALSO INTERACT WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MOISTURE CONTENT FOR A CHANCE
FOR SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION AND SOME SPOTTY .1-.25"
AMOUNTS...MOST LIKELY OVER NRN CA TERRAIN AND ACROSS OREGON.

SCHICHTEL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 27/00Z
 0.01 511183 513171 514158 513155 509153 502154 498159 493165
      489170 489174 491178 496182 502187 509185 511183
 0.01 477942 490951 498932 492874 479831 462799 464772 475732
      485679 478647 467645 449655 432694 430698 424707 418715
      416720 415725 414730 415737 414743 411746 406753 402757
      400760 399765 400770 404780 403785 400790 394799 396803
      400805 403810 402816 402828 403834 402839 397847 394851
      392856 389867 391873 391879 393883 396886 399887 402885
      404880 404875 407863 406855 406851 407847 409845 412846
      418853 415857 415864 416869 418872 423873 424878 425883
      428889 430894 433898 440905 445908 459921 462927 468933
      474938 477942
 0.01 475156 473146 471135 469132 464131 459130 455131 447131
      444142 442146 443150 450156 457153 467155 470158 473158
      475156
 0.01 444220 455220 461219 461215 455213 451204 456196 459191
      464186 461181 456182 451176 448177 444182 439183 436185
      435194 430205 425213 421218 418221 413224 409225 403228
      402235 408239 425244 439242 454238 452234 437234 432229
      438223 444220
 0.01 458008 459999 457994 453983 450972 450961 447954 444950
      440947 435939 433933 431930 426923 419918 403909 386905
      374908 370923 373961 373968 374973 378982 373990 367992
      361991 354985 350983 347982 328973 324970 323963 323951
      322945 322938 321926 311886 309880 308875 308869 310865
      313857 316850 318845 321841 326833 338817 342813 344808
      347800 354782 356774 359765 362756 364751 364744 366734
      370725 372715 371709 366709 331729 324736 319743 309757
      306761 289784 272792 247798 235812 234829 245835 262834
      283836 287850 286852 281861 278864 275866 270875 267884
      262903 262910 260915 259921 257925 253931 248937 244942
      240954 240976 246993 264004 290017 297033 297047 294060
      288066 286066 280067 277065 273062 270058 268056 264056
      263063 265067 269073 276080 278084 280088 284098 286104
      289108 294115 298118 303119 308111 310107 313105 320103
      329101 335102 338104 344105 347101 347096 346092 350083
      352079 356076 366077 373078 376075 378069 379065 381064
      386066 390064 398060 404056 406051 405047
 0.01 405047 402035 401029 407028 409028 410025 413019 415016
      418016 420018 424017 426011 426003 429997 432994 434987
      435982 437979 438981 442984 445988 448993 449996 449000
      451005 455008 458008
 0.25 477669 477664 475661 472661 470663 469666 468669 466673
      466677 467682 470683 473681 474679 476677 476671 477669
 0.25 487907 488899 487894 485887 482884 479875 477869 476862
      476848 473835 470826 466822 462824 454828 451831 452833
      448833 445834 442844 440856 443868 447877 453884 462898
      465903 468904 475909 478911 483911 487907
 0.25 472703 473700 472698 472695 472693 471692 469692 468694
      468696 469699 468700 468701 469703 469704 471705 472704
      472703
 0.25 441813 440810 441808 438803 436801 432802 429802 425801
      424798 423795 421794 419799 417806 416814 418818 421816
      426813 433814 439814 441813
 0.25 436758 436753 434749 431746 427747 426748 422754 420761
      421770 423777 427782 432778 433773 435766 436758
 0.25 404959 403956 400954 397955 393954 389948 386943 382942
      381947 383956 386964 389970 393972 396970 397965 396961
      402961 404959
 0.25 388050 373036 372032 372029 373021 374016 372012 369009
      364006 358007 352008 345008 339008 334010 330012 327016
      321026 318031 317037 315045 312048 308052 308058 310064
      313069 316073 320076 323081 326081 329083 332082 334080
      337067 341064 346063 351061 356058 365053 371053 378054
      383052 388050 388050
 0.25 361727 360722 355722 346725 339729 333735 328740 323747
      319753 315760 300788 297796 293802 276808 271808 268807
      262804 257805 254807 253812 257815 268824 275827 283827
      293827 300831 313830 318823 321817 325809 330803 338789
      343782 345774 351758 357741 361727
 0.25 309983 310976 309970 306960 305954 305948 302919 301896
      303870 304855 299848 294853 286873 286900 284927 272939
      257945 247961 244973 244976 246985 249988 254988 273984
      281988 284992 286996 289997 293996 302992 305991 306989
      309983
 0.25 249812 249810 247808 245807 244809 244811 245813 245815
      246816 247815 248814 249812
 0.25 243825 243823 244821 243819 242819 241821 240821 239823
      238826 238828 240829 241829 243827 243826 243825
 0.50 477895 475883 472873 471858 470853 466849 463849 461851
      455859 453862 453869 457878 461887 467895 473898 477895
 0.50 356734 356729 355726 349727 342730 337734 329744 322755
      318760 316767 313773 310777 306783 304789 305796 305801
      304804 299808 294809 286809 280811 274814 271816 271820
      276823 284823 311820 315815 317808 327799 330794 333789
      339777 345764 350751 356734
 0.50 366041 365032 363024 360021 358020 349018 342016 339018
      337021 326029 324032 323037 325041 327043 329045 328048
      320049 314053 313057 314060 318067 321069 326069 332066
      337061 343059 349055 354050 360047 366041
 0.50 302973 303971 303968 302966 301964 299964 299966 298968
      298970 298973 299975 300975 301974 302973
 0.50 285974 286967 285962 280960 277960 265955 254959 252971
      260973 263974 269975 274977 280977 285975 285974
 0.50 268814 268812 266810 265810 264809 262808 260808 258809
      258811 258812 259813 260814 262815 264815 266815 268815
      268814
 1.00 353733 346732 343733 340735 332748 329754 325760 320774
      315779 313782 311786 314794 316798 319799 326795 329788
      335776 341762 348747 353733
 1.00 355036 355033 353030 350029 346029 343030 341032 339034
      338036 337041 338044 342045 344043 346041 348039 351038
      353038 355036
 1.00 330057 328056 327056 325056 323056 321056 319056 318058
      319060 320061 321061 323062 324062 326061 328059 330057
 1.00 290816 289814 288814 287814 286815 284816 284817 286818
      288817 290816
 1.50 346741 346736 344736 340740 335752 330762 325773 323778
      321780 318781 316783 316787 318793 321795 324793 327788
      332778 336766 338760 341755 343750 346743 346741
 2.00 331772 331769 329771 328773 326776 325779 324782 322784
      320786 319789 320791 323791 324788 326786 327783 328780
      330777 331774 331772

$$





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