Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 170649
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
149 AM EST SUN DEC 17 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 17/1200 UTC THRU DEC 18/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT DAY 1 WITH THE PERSISTENT WESTERLY
LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE
ENTIRE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD---PUSHING INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.  WITH PW VALUES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 1 TO 1.5+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN IN
THIS PERSISTENT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW--MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS LIKELY FROM THE WASHINGTON CASCADES---WESTWARD TO THE
WASHINGTON COAST RANGE/OLYMPIC RANGE.  INLAND---LESSER TOTALS
LIKELY GIVEN THE LATER START TO PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS FROM FAR NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON---NORTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA EXPECTED.

NORTHWEST MEXICO---SOUTHERN ARIZONA---SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND FAR
SOUTHWEST TEXAS

THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL MOVE ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD DAY 1 ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER.  SHOWER
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY CONFINED OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA WILL BE MAKING
ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD JUST PRIOR TO THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1
TIME PERIOD INTO SOUTHEAST AZ AND SPREADING EASTWARD SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SOUTHWEST NM AND FAR SOUTHWEST TX.  WITH THE
STRONGEST LIFT EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE U.S. BORDER
ACROSS EASTERN SONORA AND WESTERN CHIHUAHUA---THE AXIS OF THE
HEAVIEST TOTALS ALSO EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE AZ/NM BORDER---WITH THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS AFFECTING SOUTHERN
ARIZONA---SOUTHWEST NM INTO FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

LOWER MS VALLEY---CENTRAL GULF COAST---LOWER TO MID TN VALLEY

THE LEAD AREA OF SOUTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE PUSHING
RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENING SUNDAY FROM THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND INTO THE OH
VALLEY.  THE CURRENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF
THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ORGANIZED INTO SUNDAY
MORNING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF
COAST---NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER TO MID TN VALLEY.  THIS
ACTIVITY LIKELY TO WEAKEN BY AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS
WEAKEN WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED RAPID EAST NORTHEAST PUSH OF THE
HEIGHT FALLS.  THE EARLY DAY 1 ACTIVITY WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS FROM EASTERN LA---ACROSS SOUTHERN TO EASTERN
MS---WESTERN TO NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN TN.  ISOLATED RUNOFF
ISSUES POSSIBLE EARLY DAY 1 OVER SOUTHEAST LA---FAR SOUTHERN
MS---ESPECIALLY IN URBANIZED AREAS.

LOWER MO VALLEY---OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC

WITH THE RAPID EAST NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THESE AREAS DAY 1---WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.  WITH THE WEAKENING TREND TO THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING---EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THESE AREAS.

WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE DAY 1

THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF EARLY DAY 1 WILL
STALL IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING UPPER DYNAMICS TO ITS NORTH.
THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH BACK TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF COAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE SLOW EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPSTREAM NORTHERN MEXICO CLOSED LOW.  SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY TO INCREASE LATE
DAY 1 ALONG THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION FROM THE
UPPER COAST OF TX INTO SOUTHERN LA---SOUTHERN MS---FAR SOUTHERN AL
INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 18/12Z
 0.01 537210 539199 537191 535170 533161 529152 526142 522133
      519117 516099 509055 506037 501021 500016 498018 494025
      493051 495072 496093 497104 499115 501126 504135 505141
      504144 500142 490133 487130 483128 474124 470125 467127
      464134 459138 455139 454142 450157 450164 448168 449174
      451177 454186 460188 462185 466184 472188 479191 486191
      489194 488198 487200 479201 467207 462208 456211 451215
      450220 451223 455226 456227 456231 450234 447236 446243
      448247 449250 454253 462257 474266 479272 485279 491285
      493287 496289 509286 513281 517276 520267 522262 523255
      525241 527237 529229 537210
 0.01 466811 465798 463784 452767 441746 437743 432747 429750
      422751 413753 405759 401761 398758 395756 392759 397771
      399779 397784 393789 387792 379798 376801 373805 369806
      365809 362812 357814 352822 341826 335828 332830 325838
      316846 309843 303844 301843 296849 294854 291858 286868
      283877 274900 267917 266923 266927 266931 264935 264943
      269946 274945 273949 270960 268964 268972 268978 270980
      276987 280986 281982 285979 287974 297957 304946 309937
      317919 320916 326915 329914 335913 348911 353914 355919
      358925 361929 368935 374939 379941 380947 382957 384963
      386968 387970 390970 393970 395968 398959 403944 405931
      411925 412919 412912 408889 406885 406880 405872 405866
      407861 406854 408849 407842 409836 408826 409823 411821
      415823 421818 426810 428805 432805 434806 439808 444812
      448816 451821 456830 459835 462837 464836 464832 465829
      465825 465817 466811
 0.01 409819 408817 407815 406817 406820 408822 409819
 0.01 346112 345103 346094 344089 343083 343072 343061 345058
      347055 346052 345048 342042 339039 331042 326046 319050
      312054 299060 284067 250071 248073 248078 251085 253087
      254093 257100 262105 264108 263111 263116 264121 266124
      269124 276121 279119 283119 289124 294132 297137 302142
      308143 311145 320147 324141 329133 334127 340122 343117
      346112
 0.25 534201 534196 532190 529181 526174 524170 517161 514159
      510159 509162 507161 505161 500162 494163 489161 485157
      478153 473151 470148 466147 462150 462155 465159 470167
      478172 486178 490182 492186 496195 496200 492202 474207
      467211 463213 461216 459220 460225 462228 461231 458234
      456238 457242 465247 475252 484260 497272 503274 506273
      514265 515260 515253 513242 505219 504214 504208 507205
      509208 513211 519214 524215 529213 532208 534201
 0.25 488234 486232 485229 484227 480225 477224 474224 473226
      475227 478228 481231 482234 484236 486233 488234
 0.25 494148 492142 490139 487136 483133 479131 474131 472133
      474138 477140 482140 485143 488147 493149 494148
 0.25 354879 355871 352865 349859 348854 346851 342852 337855
      331858 326863 321866 316866 309870 305875 287889 283901
      277914 273925 272931 272936 276936 285931 288931 288933
      290938 292940 295939 297933 303921 307918 311915 321906
      329898 335896 344896 347893 350888 354879
 0.25 340100 338091 337078 336072 335068 333063 328060 319062
      310066 293071 284074 276077 268081 265085 264089 264093
      267096 270099 273102 276106 278109 283111 295111 298111
      302110 305111 309114 324106 330105 334104 337101 340100
 0.50 528204 528202 527201 526201 526204 527204 528205 528204
 0.50 522197 523190 522184 519178 514172 507168 503167 501168
      495172 495176 496180 499188 505193 511197 515199 519199
      522197
 0.50 508251 508241 506235 502225 500217 498211 498208 496206
      490205 479207 471211 466213 464219 467229 463235 463238
      464241 472247 492261 497263 496258 492248 489242 487239
      483239 481234 479231 476230 473229 471227 474223 479223
      484224 488229 491233 497242 504252 506253 508251
 0.50 474161 474159 473157 473156 472155 470155 469154 467154
      466157 467157 468159 469160 470161 471162 473162 474161
 0.50 343884 344876 343869 341865 335866 329874 327877 321879
      315878 309880 302884 294889 288895 284905 281914 279919
      276923 277929 275931 280931 287927 295922 303917 311911
      317905 322898 329893 340890 343886 343884
 0.50 331086 332080 331077 329075 325074 318075 315074 312073
      306073 300074 287076 280078 274081 270085 268089 269091
      277101 282105 286107 290107 297107 303104 312098 320096
      324091 328089 331086
 1.00 494225 496215 494210 488208 483208 478209 474211 468214
      467217 467221 473221 479222 486223 491224 494225
 1.00 483247 482245 481242 480238 479234 478233 474232 473233
      471236 470241 473243 474245 477247 481248 483247
 1.00 306089 307085 306083 299081 292081 286081 281083 276086
      275090 276092 282095 289096 294096 300095 305091 306089
 1.00 310901 309888 307885 303886 300889 296893 292899 290904
      289908 284915 282919 281925 286925 289922 295918 302912
      308906 310901
 1.50 492219 492214 489210 484209 481209 477210 474212 470215
      469218 474220 478220 483221 488221 491220 492219
 1.50 481244 480241 480239 479236 478234 476233 474233 473234
      472236 472239 473241 473242 474243 476244 478244 479245
      481244
 1.50 303905 301901 298901 295904 291908 289910 286913 284916
      284923 286922 290919 293916 296914 299911 302907 303905
 2.00 490216 489213 487212 484210 481211 479211 476212 473214
      473216 475218 478218 481219 483219 486219 489218 490216
 2.00 479241 479239 479238 478235 477235 476234 474234 474235
      474237 473238 474239 475241 476241 478241 479241

$$





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