Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 030647
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 AM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 03/1200 UTC THRU JUL 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

.MID MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE FORECAST IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS
PERIOD..WITH A STRONG H5 RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A
DOWNSTREAM H5 TROF PERSISTING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S.  H5 S/WVS CONTINUE TO DROP INTO AND LIFT OUT OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY H5 TROF..WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS
OCCURRING THRU PARTS OF THE MID MS..TN AND OH VALLEYS..MAINLY LATE
IN THE PERIOD.  ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THIS H5 TROF..A
QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  STRONGER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH..AND STRONGER LIFT
ACTING ON SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY..WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A RATHER WIDE SWATH OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS INTO SATURDAY MORNING..FROM AR AND NORTHERN
LA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO MD AND PA.  A COUPLE OF WELL DEFINED H5
S/WVS..ONE NOW VICINITY OF THE MIDWEST AND WHICH WILL SWING INTO
THE OH VALLEY..CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC AREA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD..AND A 2ND NOW TOPPING THE H5 RIDGE THRU THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WHICH WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING..WILL
ENHANCE THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY RESPECTIVELY.  WPC QPF AGAIN STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL
QPF SOLUTIONS WHICH WERE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH IN THE MID MS AND TN
VALLEYS..KEYING IN ON WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE..AND INCLUDED THE
ARW..NMMB..NSSL WRF AND EVEN TO A CERTAIN EXTENT THE NAM AND GFS.
COOL SECTOR RAINFALL FROM PARTS OF WV INTO PA IS LIKELY OVERDONE
IN THE GFS AND OLD ECMWF HIRES DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS WITH BOTH MODELS..ALTHOUGH SOME MODERATE TO ISOLATED
HEAVIER RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED AS PER THAT SIGNAL FROM THE
REMAINING MODEL QPF GUIDANCE.


...WESTERN STATES...

THE ANOMALOUS H5 RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
PERIOD..BUT WITH 2 AREAS OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED RAINFALL OCCURRING
UNDERNEATH/ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  SOMEWHAT HIGHER
MOISTURE/PWS AND A H5 SHEAR AXIS ON THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN/NORTHERN CA INTO NV
SHOULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS REGION..ESPECIALLY
DURING TIME OF BETTER HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GENERALLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY.  A
2ND REGION OF ENHANCED RAINS IS LIKELY MORE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE
FROM SOUTHERN CO INTO NM AND BACK INTO EASTERN AZ..WHERE A MORE
FAVORABLE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP.  THIS
GENERALLY DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE SOMEWHAT
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS..WITH 0.25-0.50+ AREAL AVERAGE TOTALS
EXPECTED.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

TERRY

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 516876 516866 515859 514856 513845 511835 505818 501810
      498804 494799 489795 485794 482795 478797 475799 472805
      469812 464829 460844 458854 457863 455881 456906 461945
      464950 469955 472954 476952 479947 482939 482935 484932
      487912 490906 493896 494892 498893 503896 507894 511890
      516876
 0.01 454105 455099 453096 453081 450072 445064 439059 432054
      423053 421056 425059 430065 436073 441079 444082 442084
      434083 430080 425079 422076 417076 413080 428090 430092
      432097 437099 441102 448105 454105
 0.01 440769 439758 436754 432751 427750 414757 408759 399761
      393759 391756 389751 387749 383747 379747 377749 373750
      372747 368741 365739 364733 367726 371712 371705 369700
      365700 363702 359704 357708 349719 347723 347726 343732
      340740 338750 337757 334763 331770 326776 323782 320787
      319793 320799 322806 327812 336823 338825 336830 332836
      327852 323870 321885 321904 320910 319918 319925 320935
      320944 322948 322953 333984 335988 335993 336997 336002
      335023 335033 336036 334037 329039 325043 323045 322050
      317053 307063 301066 298069 295069 287071 279071 272072
      270075 270080 270083 271087 276094 281097 286100 298104
      304106 312106 316107 320107 329108 333109 335111 341116
      354126 360130 363132 365132 369132 371133 373127 375124
      376121 373115 368103 370099 373098 380095 381091 381086
      380083 383081 389076 394070 398069 401067 404058 402052
      398047 394043 388038 383034 379029 375018 371014 364009
      357008 352008 350005 351002 351997 350994 350989 351983
      352978 355974 356970 361966 368963 375966 382970 392971
      395970 396967 396963 393956 388951 377943 375940 373934
      375929 378927 382921 384918 385912 385909 384906 384901
      385896 387889 390886 394885 401883 404878 406872 405864
      398851 397846 397840 397829 398820 401813 406807 412802
      426794 430790 435785 438777 440769
 0.01 421245 420238 419235 421232 423215 426208 426204 424201
      420197 413192 410188 407181 410178 411175 410172 408170
      403165 400159 393158 390159 386159 380160 378162 377165
      378169 381171 383173 387174 391179 392187 389189 386186
      379183 374181 367181 365186 362189 365193 370198 377201
      385205 390207 398209 402214 405216 405222 402228 400230
      399235 401239 405240 411244 416247 421245
 0.01 292820 292813 290808 283801 279799 273798 269796 262797
      256798 251800 248803 248810 251814 254818 263822 272825
      283826 288824 292820 292820
 0.25 415232 416229 415228 414227 412227 410227 410228 408230
      408232 409234 411234 413234 413233 415232 415232
 0.25 423772 422768 421766 416765 405771 398774 391775 388776
      385779 378782 372781 367779 365776 364771 362766 358763
      352761 347762 344764 340769 334778 331784 328790 327797
      328802 330804 334802 337800 341801 343807 344812 347820
      347827 335852 331862 328876 325892 324909 324924 323934
      325943 334969 337973 342973 348963 353948 357934 362923
      366918 368912 371896 372889 376882 382872 385866 385857
      386839 390824 395815 402804 419785 422778 423772
 0.25 385056 384051 379047 367043 364042 360046 354048 351048
      347047 343045 338045 333049 330055 336065 336070 334072
      331075 328079 329085 330092 333097 343102 347102 349100
      353095 353091 351086 345075 344072 345065 347063 350063
      355065 359067 359076 363081 367083 371084 372079 366068
      370064 375063 380062 384058 385056
 0.25 359031 360027 359024 357022 354020 352019 349019 347020
      345024 347026 348028 352031 353032 357033 359031
 0.25 274814 271812 267810 271809 273805 270803 267802 263803
      260805 256807 257811 260813 265815 270816 274814
 0.50 416776 416774 412772 407775 395781 391785 387790 385797
      381802 374810 370813 366812 364809 364805 360802 358804
      357808 356817 356826 358832 358839 359846 358853 357845
      353840 350839 348840 342845 333867 330876 329883 326898
      326911 326930 326941 328947 331952 336958 339961 343960
      348954 350948 351941 354934 358918 361914 363909 365894
      368878 371871 375865 377860 374861 371867 366871 362870
      361867 361862 362853 367847 368842 371837 376834 378837
      378841 376848 378848 379845 381842 381836 383829 388819
      396809 400802 404797 412787 415781 416776
 0.50 379053 376051 372051 369051 365050 361050 358051 356053
      355055 357058 361057 365057 366056 370055 372054 376054
      379053
 0.50 354775 355771 351769 346772 341776 337780 333785 331789
      329796 330799 333798 337793 340789 344785 349781 353777
      354775
 1.00 406785 404784 403784 401785 400786 399786 398787 397788
      397791 398793 398795 400795 402793 403792 404790 405787
      406785
 1.00 355905 351898 349893 345892 340897 337899 338893 339883
      339871 336874 334878 331888 329897 329911 329923 330929
      332934 333944 334947 335941 336937 335933 337929 337926
      337923 339927 341932 345936 348933 350928 351916 355905
 1.50 345928 345925 345923 345921 346919 346917 346914 345912
      345910 344909 343910 343912 342914 342915 342917 342919
      342921 342923 342925 343928 344929 345928
 1.50 332909 333905 333902 333899 332899 331901 331909 332909

$$




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