Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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469
FXUS04 KWBC 060658
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 AM EDT FRI MAY 06 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 06/1200 UTC THRU MAY 07/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...WESTERN U.S...

AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW...BETWEEN 2-2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY AT 500 MB...WILL SPIN SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND
THE SOUTHWEST-LOWER GREAT BASIN DURING DAY 1. ACROSS
CALIFORNIA...PERSISTENT DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE (PWATS 0.75-1.00"+ OR 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL)... ALONG WITH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
(7-7.5 C/KM BETWEEN 700-500 MB)...WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
ANY DIMINISHMENT IN THE CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING (AS THE THE
FAVORABLE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DIVERGENCE SHIFTS
E-NE) WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASED DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS WHERE MIXED-LAYER CAPES
COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 1000 J/KG.

IN TERMS OF THE QPF...WPC CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE
HIGHER-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE RECENT HRRR RUNS...00Z
NSSL-WRF...AND (TAKING OUT THE HIGH BIAS) THE 00Z SPC-WRF EARLY
ON...ALL OF WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
CONVECTION LATE THU EVENING. DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD (12Z FRI -
12Z SAT)... AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.10-0.25" OVER SOUTHERN
CA AND 0.25-0.75" OVER THE NORTHERN HALF ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...AS IMPLICATED BY THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE...THERE WILL BE
QUITE A VARIANCE FROM THE MEAN WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 1-2+ INCHES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN
NORTHERN CA.


...MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA...

ANOTHER STRONGLY ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW...THIS ONE 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AT 500 MB...WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD (12Z SAT).
THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE QPF
DETAILS DURING DAY 1...DUE AT LEAST IN PART TO THE MEAGER DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AS THE PCPN BECOMES INCREASINGLY
STRATIFORM-BASED. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A N-S SWATH OF HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.50-1.00+
INCH FROM SOUTHERN NY...CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA...MUCH OF NJ INTO
CENTRAL-EASTERN MD AND NORTHERN-CENTRAL VA...ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE
AXIS OF BEST 700-500 MB DEFORMATION. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS WILL
AVERAGE LESS THAN 0.50"

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HURLEY

24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 567944 566951 564958 566962 567969 567978 567985 565988
      563986 561982 559977 559968 559959 561952 559947 558947
      555942 551939 546931 544925 542918 541913 538909 537905
      537899 537892 535884 528887 523892 519895 516898 512904
      510908 506907 502914 497921 491929 491941 491948 490953
      488959 487962 485962 484959 486955 486951 486948 484945
      482949 478957 460991 455996 449994 449021 450028 452034
      454045 457068 460076 463088 466087 469083 472075 474060
      475044 475036 477033 477029 479029 481034 483056 486082
      488106 489114 489119 488134 484137 481138 475137 470136
      463141 458145 457152 457160 457164 457170 455175 451182
      447192 444201 441209 432229 429233 426236 420241 414246
      409247 404246 394243 389242 386239 378241 368241 360242
      352236 345236 340230 338221 339218 342217 345217 346215
      344209 341206 340202 336193 329187 319184 315183 312180
      307172 306162 306157 306151 309149 313151 318152 321151
      322147 320143 316135 315129 316127 319123 322123 327124
      329121 331114 333110 335108 340108 348112 353113 357111
      360113 366114 364117 368118 378116 385112 387109 390103
      385102 379103 366095 360094 362089 366090 369086 369080
      367077 366073 367066 371064 378060 379056 375055 372055
      369055 366057 357056 358053 362051 400046 405024 407021
      410020 412016 411012 410003 411998 412994 413988 414982
      415975 416969 418944 419929 419915 416890 414885 414877
      417870 432857 437851 440843 444834 448828 460815 466807
      471800 484788 512761 522749 526742 530733 533725 535718
 0.01 563866 563864 563861 562858 562855 562853 561850 561847
      561845 561842 560836 560834 559831 559828 558826
      558825 557823 556821 556818 556815 556812 556810 555807
      555804
 0.01 494640 491631 484630 478632 469634 461637 457639 455642
      449647 446653 444664 443671 444677 443681 445693 446698
      449699 452698 454696 461694 467688 470686 473683 477677
      486663 492649 494640
 0.01 452713 439692 433683 429678 424674 418674 416676 414679
      415696 401701 389700 385700 380703 369711 351726 343732
      335742 326749 319759 316762 311766 306769 304774 301780
      300787 301793 304797 307801 312803 318802 323798 329786
      335795 340795 346798 351799 355799 356802 365810 366812
      366815 363820 361823 367822 372819 377815 388809 397803
      401800 407796 418792 422787 426782 431779 437777 440773
      440767 437762 440755 443750 448746 450739 451733 451722
      450716 452713
 0.01 452978 453976 453974 453971 453969 452966 451969 451971
      450974 450976 452978 452979 452978
 0.01 405137 405133 403132 401130 400125 398123 396124 393126
      391128 391132 394135 397136 399138 402139 405137
 0.01 383727 382724 379725 376728 369735 363737 358739 351747
      344753 341758 342766 343769 345767 346761 353754 357752
      363750 368748 372745 376741 379737 381732 383727
 0.01 375175 374173 372170 370168 367167 363167 359166 356167
      357171 359172 362174 366174 369176 373176 375175
 0.01 345156 346151 345149 344146 340144 337145 335147 332149
      331149 329153 332155 335155 339156 342157 345156
 0.01 346776 345774 344772 342772 340773 339775 337778 339779
      341778 343778 345778 346776
 0.01 324014 323011 318011 311012 298017 294017 290020 290023
      292025 296026 300025 304024 306025 306028 301033 293035
      291036 289039 289043 291045 294048 298049 301051 303050
      318046 320045 320041 319035 321028 319024 316022 315019
      318017 324014
 0.01 273052 273050 272049 271048 271047 269047 268048 268050
      268052 268054 270055 271054 272053 273052
 0.01 263825 262815 258807 252801 246796 242794 239797 239807
      240819 244827 251832 254834 258835 262832 263827 263825
 0.01 251018 251014 251012 249009 247007 243007 241008 239009
      238013 239017 241019 243021 247021 249020 251018
 0.25 541738 532754 524769 523773 522780 523794 522806 522818
      521824 520828 517837 516844 517851 526851 533851 537853
      540855 545860 548860 548852 547845 546839 545825 544798
      545786 547775 548767
 0.25 560900 560894 559891 557888 555885 554883 551884 550887
      549890 550893 550898 551901 553904 555906 558906 559903
      560900
 0.25 509792 508788 506788 501790 495795 489800 482807 476813
      474818 475821 477822 480823 483821 490814 494807 501801
      507795 509792
 0.25 453122 449110 449106 451104 454103 456100 453093 449087
      448083 450081 452078 451075 449058 446043 446037 444034
      442026 439021 435021 434023 433030 427033 418043 412056
      408061 406068 407074 406084 406094 406102 406109 410115
      413122 416125 419132 417138 416148 413156 411163 407172
      403176 403179 404181 406183 408182 407189 403191 400184
      390176 388178 388181 389187 389191 387192 383191 376189
      370185 364185 363189 363193 367193 368201 365205 362207
      363209 368214 372220 373223 377224 383224 387225 388227
      390230 393232 400233 406232 412232 417228 421223 424212
      430202 433196 435191 435186 435166 435161 437157 442149
      448138 451130 453122
 0.25 436729 436725 435723 432717 427715 423712 413710 410711
      409714 408721 408727 403731 398734 395738 389747 380755
      373761 366771 364775 364779 366781 376784 380786 384791
      387796 393795 399793 404790 411783 419775 423772 428769
      431764 433758 433750 434744 433737 431732 436729
 0.25 385717 384714 380714 377715 373716 371718 368720 367722
      365725 366726 369726 373724 374724 378722 380720 383719
      385717
 0.25 394075 392073 391075 392077 394076 394075
 0.25 365137 366135 365133 364131 360127 357122 356120 352119
      347119 341120 339124 337126 338129 343133 349134 354133
      359138 365137
 0.25 354191 353189 351189 350190 351191 352191 354191
 0.25 324167 323167 321166 320166 321167 323167 324167
 0.50 447094 442084 441079 442076 448078 448071 446065 445057
      442053 440050 440046 443041 443037 441035 438033 425045
      422049 420051 419055 419062 414063 416066 416071 415075
      416080 414085 412089 413103 413107 414115 416121 421125
      425130 427137 430141 434145 436146 438143 441138 443130
      441124 437119 436114 439113 439109 439104 441102 446098
      447094
 0.50 431188 431169 430161 427156 425156 423161 421169 417174
      414181 412190 408196 405202 398203 396204 394208 395212
      398215 403218 408223 414224 416222 418218 419208 420203
      422200 427195 430189 431188
 0.50 430752 429750 428750 428752 430752 430752
 0.50 428755 426752 422752 419745 415740 409739 403741 397745
      393751 387755 383760 379764 374769 370775 372778 374779
      381780 385781 386784 388787 391789 398786 403783 412774
      417769 421763 428755
 0.50 387203 386199 384197 381196 379199 380201 378203 377205
      375207 375212 376213 380213 381211 382206 381204 383203
      387203
 1.00 440096 441093 441090 439086 436079 435075 437071 438068
      436064 432059 429057 426060 428065 427068 424073 423081
      422087 422093 424096 427098 431099 436097 440096
 1.00 425117 425115 424112 423110 421107 420105 419104 418104
      417104 416105 416106 416109 416111 417113 418114 419116
      420117 422118 424118 425117
 1.00 408759 407755 405752 401753 397758 394763 390768 385771
      382772 381775 388775 395773 400771 404767 407761 408759
 1.50 438091 437087 435084 434082 430080 427081 425083 424086
      424089 426091 428094 431096 433095 435092 438091
 2.00 432092 432090 432087 430086 428086 426087 427089 428091
      429092 431092 432092

$$





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