Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 270700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT MON MAR 27 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 27/1200 UTC THRU MAR 28/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...NORTHEAST...

A COMPOSITE GUIDANCE SOLUTION SUGGESTS A LEAD MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL SHEAR ENEWD ACRS THE
NORTHEAST MON. ADVANCE MSTR FEED/LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF
GENERALLY MODERATE .25"-.50"+ PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
SNOW/WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD
AS IT LIFTS NEWD OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND. PLEASE SEE WPC QPFHSD FOR
FURTHER INFO.

...MID-LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...OH VALLEY...AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO THE APPALACHIANS...

MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS A SIMILAR IDEA OF SHEARING A CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AND WAVY SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM
NEWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY DAY1. THE
COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WITH SYSTEM
APPROACH AND 35KT SWRLY LLJ MOISTURE/WAA FEED MAY SUPPORT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY 1-3" DOWNPOURS...WITH MAX POTENTIAL SHIFTING ACROSS
KY/TN AND VICINITY. THIS MAY LEAD TO ISOLD RUNOFF ISSUES SO PLAN
TO ISSUE A WPC MARGINAL THREAT AREA BASED ON QPF POTENTIAL AS PER
A COMBINATION OF THE REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED 12/00 UTC ARW...12
UTC SSEO MEAN AND WPC CONTINUITY.

..NWRN US INTO THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES...

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF S/WV TROFS WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE PAC
NW SUN EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED VORT ENERGY HELPING TO
MAINTAIN SHOWERY CONDS ALONG THE PAC NW COAST ON MON WITH POST
FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW. STG JET ENERGY DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROF WILL ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO SHARPEN INTO THE GT BASIN BY
LATE MON AND FORM A SEPATATED CLOSED LOW NEAR FOUR CORNERS BY TUE
MORNING...WHICH WILL WILL AID FRONTAL LIFT TOWARD THE
WASATCH/UNITA RANGES OF UT DURING THE AFTN AND OUT ACROSS THE
N-CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER PERIOD.  MODEL HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS REASONABLE SIMILAR WITH DECENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. AS A
RESULT...MANUAL QPF MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CONTINUITY. PLEASE
REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM THE WPC WINTER WEATHER DESK FOR WINTER
WEATHER POTENTIAL DETAILS.

SCHICHTEL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 28/12Z
 0.01 461623 472627 476631 481634 490642 501653 508664 512670
      514681 518694 519700 518703 519713 518731 515746 512751
      491794 480818 478855 477858 474865 472869 469870 464867
      462864 461860 461850 462842 463840 457820 448816 439825
      438830 437834 435836 430840 428841 427846 427854 426860
      423867 424869 425874 427878 427884 427890 425893 419894
      418897 418902 418911 416919 414929 411935 403949 398952
      395953 393954 379954 371954 365958 359959 352958 345949
      336943 329941 324943 317948 312954 303960 299962 297959
      296954 297945 298939 300932 302926 308914 310909 310901
      314885 319870 323864 326858 331845 333839 332831 332826
      334824 336819 337817 335815 333814 328818 318824 311827
      302828 299827 298824 301818 310817 318816 327809 334802
      346794 351795 352796 354801 355801 362800 371794 374785
      380770 385763 388757 389754 390753 398732 406710 409671
      418650 419648 420637
 0.01 514261 515254 515249 513237 510228 506221 503212 500209
      495206 485203 478204 464210 459209 455210 449213 442213
      430211 424205 422202 419203 420216 417227 410229 400227
      397229 397234 398244 405248 412252 422254 438253 445252
      450252 454252 459253 463252 467253 471256 472265 473271
      475276 476280 477286 480294 483297 486296 493292 500290
      505285 508280 510271 512262 514261
 0.01 523189 523174 521167 513158 505149 492137 488132 483130
      474130 470131 468131 466129 467125 470120 477112 482100
      484097 481092 476083 469077 463076 460074 455071 454064
      454051 451053 447057 447047 448039 449032 447028 442019
      440013 440005 439000 434999 429008 425008 422006 415000
      412998 410999 403000 396004 387008 381017 381020 383024
      387024 391025 398030 402034 404036 403040 395048 392050
      389054 387061 383056 381053 379051 376050 371050 367052
      361051 358049 361048 365046 367043 369041 368039 364040
      358042 355046 352050 351057 350062 352065 354069 358072
      361076 363081 364086 363090 362092 358091 353088 349090
      347094 344096 342094 338089 335090 333094 336102 337107
      338113 338118 341123 345126 347131 349134 354137 358140
      365142 371143 374148 376150 378152 382154 387162 387172
      388176 391176 393175 397173 402174 406172 411172 421179
      428180 432178 435175 440176 443178 442181 440187 441193
      443196 444193 447192 451191 457184 459180 459175 462172
      464170 467170 472173 475174 476170 479170 484172 493179
      500186 503189 507190 523189
 0.01 510058 511043 509037 507034 503024 501018 498016 495015
      493018 489028 486032 485037 484045 485051 488055 491057
      499060 504060 508059 510058
 0.01 497120 498115 497113 495110 493108 490108 488108 486111
      484113 483118 484121 485124 486126 490127 492127 495125
      496123 497120
 0.01 445084 445082 444081 443079 443078 442079 441081 441084
      442085 444086 445084
 0.01 433133 431131 430130 428132 429134 431134 433133
 0.01 397208 396203 391199 380192 376188 371186 364183 357181
      350181 348181 347185 346194 347199 349202 351200 354195
      360193 365192 375198 385205 390209 395210 397208
 0.01 384067 384065 384063 382060 381058 379058 377058 375060
      374062 374064 375065 376066 376067 378067 380068 381069
      382070 383069 383068 384067
 0.01 367113 367110 366108 364110 362112 362114 360116 358118
      357120 357121 359122 361121 361120 363119 363118 365117
      365115 367113
 0.01 336169 334166 328163 325163 323162 323163 321164 321165
      323165 324167 325167 326168 328168 330169 332169 333169
      335170 336169
 0.01 325016 325011 323007 320004 317002 313003 309006 307010
      307015 308019 309024 314026 316025 320024 323020 325016
      325016
 0.25 502278 504274 504270 502262 500251 502245 503235 503229
      501223 499219 495214 489212 484211 480211 475212 467217
      467220 470221 473223 476222 480222 486224 489227 491230
      491235 496238 497242 497244 494245 491239 482238 479234
      477231 474230 469231 467235 473244 478252 484263 487274
      488280 492281 496279 500278 502278
 0.25 501700 499690 495678 493676 489675 487674 485669 481662
      476656 471650 466646 460642 453639 445639 439643 431647
      423652 420659 418668 418673 419678 421682 423689 424696
      423706 420714 415722 410737 410741 410747 413749 416746
      419743 423743 429745 454740 461743 469745 476746 484744
      490741 496733 498724 500716 501700
 0.25 461223 460218 458217 453218 449219 445220 441221 438221
      434222 435226 439225 443224 448225 451224 456224 460223
      461223
 0.25 473108 474106 473103 472101 471101 470099 468099 468100
      467102 466102 466105 466107 468109 469110 471110 473109
      473108
 0.25 466157 466152 464149 461149 457150 454148 452149 450151
      447151 446153 449155 451158 452161 454163 457162 459162
      461161 464159 466157
 0.25 449239 457236 447236 446238 445238 446239 447239 449239
 0.25 458113 458111 457108 456107 455108 454108 453110 452112
      452115 453117 453118 455117 457115 458113
 0.25 439071 444074 451076 449073 441069 440069 438068 436069
      438071 439071
 0.25 437035 436033 435030 433030 430030 428028 426026 425028
      423031 422034 422039 424041 426043 429044 432044 434042
      436038 437035
 0.25 429089 427084 426082 427078 426075 423074 420075 415085
      412087 409086 406081 402082 396087 395094 396101 395107
      392110 384115 379121 376125 373131 374136 378137 381135
      385135 388136 392138 395137 398132 401129 409124 411122
      416120 420116 417112 414108 414102 416097 419095 424090
      429089
 0.25 415819 414811 412807 410805 407804 401803 396802 391803
      386806 383809 375816 372816 368817 363819 353823 349826
      346831 342840 338852 335863 332869 329872 324881 319892
      316903 316911 319913 325907 331896 334893 339890 343892
      345897 349904 345908 342913 335921 334924 337923 346919
      351921 356924 358925 362924 367921 374916 383913 387912
      390913 392920 394926 398927 400923 402917 403911 403906
      401897 398892 394889 390891 387891 388887 390883 392877
      391870 395865 397858 402848 406838 408833 411827 415819
 0.25 379080 378078 377078 376076 376073 375073 374074 374075
      374077 374078 375080 375082 377082 379080
 0.50 498271 499263 498259 496254 494250 491246 487246 486250
      487254 488258 489263 491267 494272 496273 498271
 0.50 458652 456648 452647 444648 433651 428653 426657 425662
      426670 430672 430675 432701 428711 423718 421722 420728
      420733 421735 429730 437725 445709 446696 449687 452684
      456681 458677 458674 458670 457662 458652
 0.50 414115 410113 411108 411103 411100 409100 409103 406103
      403107 401111 397114 394116 386119 383122 381126 382129
      384130 387129 395125 399123 401120 405118 410117 414115
 0.50 404815 403811 400809 396808 391810 386814 382820 380828
      375835 371837 367836 363835 361837 357852 353857 350855
      350847 348836 346845 345856 339864 338867 330879 326885
      325889 325896 334887 340883 345883 347883 348886 352892
      355899 355904 353908 351910 348914 351917 355917 360917
      362915 366908 371900 370889 374882 379875 382868 384859
      386851 393844 397839 399830 404815
 1.00 390123 390122 388122 387123 387125 388125 390123 390123
 1.00 376857 376851 374850 367852 362856 357862 355866 355870
      356879 355882 356885 359889 361887 365880 368872 371866
      376859 376857

$$





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