Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 231828
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
225 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 24/0000 UTC THRU OCT 25/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...NEW ENGLAND...

THE CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE
PIVOTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TO OFF THE COAST OF ME BY EARLY
FRIDAY. THE LATEST IR/WV SAT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE INTERACTING WITH
PERSISTENT AND STRONG ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR
AS SEEN IN THE LATEST WV IMAGERY IS SEEN WRAPPING AROUND THE MID
LEVEL LOW CENTER WHICH IS ALLOWING THE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN THAT
HAVE BEEN ADVECTING INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO BECOME
WEAKER AND MORE DISORGANIZED. THE GLOBAL MODELS AS PER THE 12Z GFS
AND THE 00Z ECMWF STILL SUPPORT AT LEAST BROKEN AREAS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN IMPACTING ESP CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE PIVOTS FARTHER
NORTH AND CROSSES THIS REGION. THE STRONGER FORCING THOUGH SHOULD
BEGIN TO PULL AWAY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...AND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE DETACHED FROM THE STRONGER DYNAMICS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT RAINS TO BEGIN TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY ACROSS
MAINE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. WPC QPF LEANED TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF AND UKMET.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...NORTHERN
ROCKIES...

THE LATEST BLENDED TPW/GOES-SOUNDER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WELL-DEFINED PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALONG AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO ACTUALLY STALL OUT OVER FAR NORTHERN CA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. NUMEROUS SHWRS
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT GIVEN THE DEEP PACIFIC FETCH OF
MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW...ESP FOR THE COASTAL RANGES.
THE SHWR ACTIVITY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS THIS
PORTION OF THE FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. THE ADDITIONAL RAINS THIS
PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY AS WHAT HAS
BEEN SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT HELPED DRIVE THIS MOST RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. HOWEVER...BY LATE FRIDAY...A
NEW SHORTWAVE WILL BE AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST AND
INTERACTING WITH THE SAME FRONTAL ZONE AND MOISTURE FEED. A NEW
CONCENTRATED AREA OF HEAVIER RAINS WILL BE APPROACHING THE WA/OR
COASTAL RANGES BY LATE FRIDAY AS A RESULT.


...MIDWEST...

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EASTWARD
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING
WITH TIME AND THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A DECREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS IT CROSSES THE MIDWEST. ONLY LGT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. WPC FAVORED A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.


...SOUTH FLORIDA/KEYS...

A VERY STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT IS SITUATED OVER SOUTH FL IN
PROXIMITY TO A FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED W/E ACROSS THE AREA. VERY DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS POOLED OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND
ESP THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA WITH SOME OF THIS FOCUSED EAST
ACROSS THE FL KEYS. NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FOCUSED AGAIN ALONG AND ESP SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT...AND THE CONVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED LOCALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF A FRONTAL WAVE WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
THROUGH THE FL STRAITS ON ITS WAY TO THE BAHAMAS BY LATE FRIDAY.
THE CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODEL SOLNS INSIST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE KEYS...BUT SUFFICIENT FORCING AND
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS AT LEAST SOME BROKEN COVERAGE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FL KEYS. HOWEVER...WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR JUST TO THE NORTH...THE RAINFALL GRADIENT SHOULD BE VERY
TIGHT.

ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 25/00Z
 0.01 500619 502623 503631 503642 500661 498672 495681 488696
      487701 485705 480711 470726 457735 451740 446746 440753
      438756 434757 428758 425757 417755 413746 416743 418741
      419738 417736 413732 412727 413723 413720 410720 401721
      383722 379716 376712 376709 379701 381697 385695 400687
      415678 421673 425667 430660 432655 432650 433640 434632
 0.01 530205 531191 529177 528171 526166 520160 508148 504145
      499142 492136 487128 478123 470120 463123 459121 456117
      456113 459111 464112 464109 458108 454100 447094 445096
      439098 436102 435106 435110 438113 442115 445118 447118
      451119 453123 454127 452129 446140 443140 439138 435141
      433146 429154 426165 427170 426179 423185 419187 417189
      415195 411204 398218 396222 393225 386230 385235 386240
      385244 387246 391250 393254 394259 395264 392267 388270
      387275 387282 392284 400285 410288 422292 428294 432293
      439290 442289 444285 449276 455263 468271 476278 480280
      483284 488286 492285 502288 505288 508285 508280 510276
      513271 514265 513261 513255 511250 505228 502219 497211
      495207 490205 479204 475206 473209 469210 466209 464199
      463194 464188 465184 465177 464175 466172 470171 473171
      475174 481176 486176 491181 498187 501191 503196 508206
      514213 522217 527211 530205
 0.01 515874 514861 512859 509859 503854 499855 495853 480854
      478852 474852 466851 450852 447850 443851 439851 436850
      436847 430845 421845 415848 409852 407855 406860 408863
      407867 403874 400880 395887 394890 394894 395898 396904
      397906 401906 407902 412898 414895 418894 425891 435883
      438880 441878 449875 453874 458875 464878 470881 473883
      476883 491886 496885 503881 508880 510878 513877 515874
 0.01 269791 269785 268781 264775 260773 255774 247773 242774
      239777 234782 231789 229797 226815 226824 227835 230842
      233844 237845 246843 252838 255831 257823 259814 260810
      263807 268801 269791 269791
 0.01 259004 259000 259996 257994 255992 253991 251992 249994
      249996 250000 251002 253005 254007 257006 259004
 0.25 479617 483618 488617 492619 494624 496633 496640 496652
      494665 490675 487680 484683 479692 468708 456723 452726
      447727 440723 437718 435714 434707 433699 437689 441679
      442668 441653 439641 441630
 0.25 522189 523183 523178 518172 513167 505164 498160 495160
      492163 490166 491170 493174 496177 501178 507182 511189
      514191 518191 522189
 0.25 506156 507153 506151 506150 504149 503148 501147 500147
      498147 496147 495147 493148 492150 492152 492153 494155
      495156 496156 497158 498159 500157 501157 502157 504157
      505156 506156
 0.25 490250 489248 488247 488246 487246 487249 489251 490250
 0.25 490219 489215 486212 479210 472214 469216 465215 448214
      441213 438211 436206 435200 433196 427199 423201 421204
      416211 409215 407218 406224 403234 403240 404243 410250
      413252 415255 414262 412265 410268 410273 414276 419278
      424279 428279 431279 436277 440273 445265 449257 453248
      459244 466244 474249 481249 483247 483245 482242 479237
      476234 472232 468232 455233 454230 456229 459230 465229
      468227 471222 476219 481218 485220 490219
 0.25 486139 484133 481130 478129 473130 467138 463139 460138
      447148 441148 438150 436157 438163 443171 442177 441183
      438188 437195 438199 444202 445200 446196 450195 452191
      453186 455182 457176 456172 459166 462163 467163 471163
      475160 475155 473150 472144 475141 481139 486139
 0.25 263798 263794 262790 259785 255781 250781 244784 241787
      238792 235798 232808 231816 231822 232830 235834 240837
      245834 250824 253818 254812 256807 260803 263798
 0.50 469621 475626 479632 482641 484653 485657 484661 482670
      477686 474692 470699 464703 458709 454715 448715 446713
      445709 446700 448692 450682 448670 445658 443649 443639
      444629
 0.50 507172 507171 506169 504168 503167 501166 499165 498165
      496166 496168 495169 495171 495172 497174 498175 500175
      502175 503175 505175 507174 507173 507172
 0.50 470155 471150 469147 463144 457146 452151 446154 444156
      444161 446169 449176 453178 455174 455168 457163 462158
      468157 470155
 0.50 461220 459219 457219 456219 457221 459221 461220 461220
 0.50 454221 454219 453218 452218 450219 450221 452221 454221
      454221
 0.50 444252 443244 442241 439239 432236 428238 424241 421235
      420231 416231 414227 416222 415217 414217 409220 409229
      409237 411240 414243 422243 424247 424251 423259 419264
      417267 418271 421274 425274 431273 435270 440263 444252
 0.50 449222 448220 447220 445220 444218 442217 441217 440217
      439219 439221 439223 441223 443224 444223 446223 448222
      449222
 0.50 426215 427213 426213 426215 426216 426215
 0.50 259799 260793 258789 255785 250785 243789 238796 236805
      234814 235826 237830 240832 243830 246827 249818 252810
      254806 256803 259799
 1.00 475657 474648 472640 470634 467631 461632 457636 452639
      450644 448649 448655 452669 454683 456691 459694 463692
      467689 473680 475673 475667 475657
 1.00 255793 252789 249789 245790 242794 239799 238806 238812
      239819 241821 244819 246815 249808 251804 253800 255793
 1.50 469671 467664 465661 462658 459654 456651 453654 452660
      453663 455670 456677 458682 461685 464682 467678 468674
      469671
 1.50 251796 250792 246792 243795 241799 240803 240809 240812
      242813 245809 247806 249802 251798 251796
 2.00 248798 249796 248794 247794 246794 245795 244797 243799
      242800 242801 242803 242805 243806 245805 246803 247802
      248800 248799 248798

$$





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