Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 010655
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2014

PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 01/1200 UTC THRU SEP 02/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SUBSEQUENT
INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA
EARLY TUESDAY WILL GENERATE LIGHT QPF FOR PRIMARILY THE WINDWARD
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND TETONS...WITH A BLEND OF THE
NAM/GFS/SREF MEAN PREFERRED OVER THE DRIER ECMWF.

GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

ASCENT GENERATED ALONG AND SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM MINNESOTA TO KANSAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING TODAY BEFORE RESUMING OR INTENSIFYING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REACHES THE
FRONTAL ZONE.  THE MODELS SEEM TO RESOLVE THIS MORNING`S
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REASONABLY WELL AND INITIALIZE THE TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE
QPF.  THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCES OBSERVED IN THE GUIDANCE INCLUDED
LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES ACROSS KANSAS/MISSOURI...WITH THE HI-RES
GUIDANCE SOUTH OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE...WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS
CONSIDERED MORE RELIABLE BASED ON TRENDS AND ANTICIPATED ROLE OF
PROPAGATION...ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONUS NEST APPEARS TOO HIGH WITH
SOME OF ITS AMOUNTS.  THE SECOND DIFFERENCE INVOLVED SOME
SOLUTIONS PARTICULARLY THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN GENERATING HIGHER
TOTALS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO THE LIGHTER
ECMWF/UKMET.  GIVEN THAT THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE...
HIGHER AMOUNTS SEEM MORE LIKELY THAN THE LOWER TOTALS...ALTHOUGH
NOT AS HIGH AS THE GFS/CANADIAN WOULD SUGGEST.  THUS...OVERALL THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS REPRESENT A MIXTURE OF THE GLOBAL/HI-RES
MODELS FOR THE MCS REGION OVER KANSAS/MISSOURI AND A MIXTURE OF
THE GLOBAL FOR THE SYNOPTIC PORTIONS EXTENDING INTO THE OH VALLEY.


EAST COAST AND FLORIDA...

WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN A
CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR THE EAST COAST COINCIDING WITH THE TAIL-END
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING NEW ENGLAND TODAY...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE SEE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS GENERATE THE BULK OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN FLORIDA.  USED A COMBINATION OF THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF TO GENERATE THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS.

WESTERN GULF COAST...

ONSHORE FLOW AND SEE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITHIN THE EMBEDDED DEEP MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUING
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...WITH A MIXTURE OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE AND
GLOBAL SOLUTIONS PREFERRED TO GENERATE THE QPF.

JAMES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 536215 537209 536204 535196 531180 530175 528172 524167
      520162 517156 513149 508145 505145 503147 501150 500155
      504171 505187 512200 521212 525218 529222 532222 534219
      536215
 0.01 516281 518272 519263 517254 514249 513242 510232 499214
      495212 489211 487213 485217 493236 493240 491240 487237
      483239 481236 477232 473231 470236 471241 472247 475252
      479260 494274 499284 505290 509289 513287 516281
 0.01 532819 527792 527788 525786 522782 517777 512773 506769
      501769 498764 499752 496740 494734 490732 481731 472733
      445753 439759 431765 418778 409793 405800 401808 393825
      388835 384843 369873 366883 363893 362900 361904 359916
      356924 354934 353939 352946 352958 352965 352970 352977
      352982 353989 354995 358003 365004 370011 376015 379015
      380010 381997 380982 380977 381973 384967 387963 390957
      393947 396938 399929 405908 407903 409902 409906 412906
      415904 422902 429898 435892 438890 441891 444895 444902
      446915 447918 450917 453917 455915 460915 463912 471908
      476904 490894 497889 503883 509877 515868 518865 519860
      520850 521842 522837 527831 531825 532819
 0.01 490007 491000 490994 487992 482991 479994 476997 475002
      475007 478012 481014 485015 488012 490008 490007
 0.01 489942 487934 484929 479924 477922 473921 469919 463920
      457922 452923 440928 433932 425932 420934 415936 412940
      410947 410963 410973 411977 411983 414995 415013 418020
      421027 428038 432043 435048 437054 437062 439070 442077
      442082 439083 433087 432093 432097 435099 440101 448102
      453102 456101 456098 453090 451087 453083 455079 454072
      452064 452056 451048 449039 448031 445023 443016 446012
      448006 448995 443981 441973 440965 441957 444952 448950
      452950 454952 458952 460955 458958 454959 449963 447966
      447970 445973 445977 448983 451987 455989 457991 461991
      468991 471990 475989 479986 482982 485976 486967 482962
      480961 481957 485951 488946 489942
 0.01 428663 427657 425654 418652 409655 406656 403658 395670
      390686 386694 382701 377708 373708 369710 364714 359719
      353725 348731 342737 337743 332750 328757 324764 323771
      324776 326779 332783 336784 338785 339787 334794 328801
      322806 316810 307811 300809 293806 285804 281796 278793
      275792 264791 257792 251797 245802 241808 240811 239817
      242820 246822 254826 261829 273834 282835 289837 294842
      299850 308865 312867 316867 320866 323864 330861 333856
      340815 343799 346792 351784 363774 377763 384761 388758
      393757 397753 402747 407740 411732 414724 416712 417703
      419696 424679 427669 428663
 0.01 428063 428058 428056 427053 425051 424048 420046 418045
      417045 416050 416055 418057 418060 421062 422065 424065
      426065 428063
 0.01 399800 398795 395793 391794 386797 383800 379803 378805
      375810 376812 380812 384809 387806 390804 396803 399800
      399800
 0.01 328913 325907 320902 315900 311896 301887 298882 292880
      287881 281883 278888 275894 275910 277918 277927 281943
      281949 277953 272957 265959 259961 254963 250968 249972
      251975 253977 257976 263975 269977 277975 286970 291968
      294968 301964 308958 313952 317946 322934 326923 327916
      328913
 0.01 225058 237069 244076 250080 257086 264089 267091 274092
      284093 289094 294092 300091 305084 305080 301078 284072
      272069 266065 258060 252055 242044 238041 233039 227042
      226044
 0.25 527201 528196 528193 526190 524187 522185 521183 517182
      516184 516185 516190 517193 518196 520199 522201 525203
      527201
 0.25 507245 507244 507242 505240 505239 504238 503236 501235
      501236 501238 502241 503243 504244 505245 506245 507245
 0.25 508849 508841 507833 506828 503826 493826 486831 473842
      470846 468851 463857 460861 460867 463876 458885 455891
      453896 452901 453904 456906 460906 468902 475897 488887
      500875 506868 508864 508856 508849
 0.25 473785 472781 470778 464777 456778 451781 442786 438789
      430791 424794 419799 411810 404820 398830 377877 374885
      372891 369908 367915 364921 359932 358939 357947 357957
      358966 360979 362984 366990 370991 373990 375983 377974
      380968 386959 390945 393929 397912 401899 406887 413877
      415863 420852 425848 428850 429860 430863 433865 440863
      445859 454854 465846 469843 471839 470833 462822 457811
      459806 463801 469792 473785
 0.25 436883 436879 433879 428880 425882 421884 418887 415891
      414896 418897 422895 427893 430890 432888 435883 436883
 0.25 416686 414679 411673 406672 402676 397686 393698 389710
      385722 385732 389736 395737 399735 404729 406724 411714
      414699 416686
 0.25 325820 323818 318819 312820 307820 302819 294818 285817
      275819 262811 247808 245811 246815 252819 260821 267825
      270826 274827 281825 287824 291825 296830 300830 304832
      306835 310837 315835 317832 322826 325820
 0.50 497850 498843 495840 489841 485842 481844 477849 467861
      466865 469866 472865 473875 469881 460893 459897 462898
      468895 480888 485883 487880 486875 484870 486865 490859
      495854 497850
 0.50 461839 460837 457836 454838 452839 451841 449843 447846
      445848 448850 451848 453847 456845 458844 460842 461839
 0.50 435809 434802 430800 425801 421804 416809 411816 406824
      401832 397839 394846 380879 376889 376901 373910 370918
      367927 362935 360944 359956 361967 364978 367981 370981
      372978 374974 384958 386950 389940 393919 397900 401890
      404881 406871 409864 413854 418846 427834 430828 433821
      434813 435809
 0.50 412697 412690 411685 409681 406680 401685 398693 396701
      394708 393718 394724 396725 400723 403720 406715 410707
      412699 412697
 0.50 268822 268819 266817 264815 262814 258813 257813 254814
      255817 257818 261818 263819 266821 268822 268822
 1.00 417832 417828 414827 408831 402841 389867 384881 383888
      383897 381906 378913 372925 370932 367940 364945 363952
      363960 366968 368970 371970 374965 378960 382954 386939
      387921 389912 390905 393887 395879 398874 404860 410849
      415840 417832
 1.50 383945 384936 383927 381924 378924 375927 371933 370940
      368945 365952 366960 367963 370964 374961 378956 381952
      383945
 2.00 381945 381938 381931 379929 375931 373936 372940 371945
      370951 368954 369956 373956 377954 379949 381945

$$




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