Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 021835
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 PM EDT THU JUL 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 03/0000 UTC THRU JUL 04/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S...

STRONGER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH...AND STRONGER LIFT ACTING ON
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A
WIDE SWATH OF AT LEAST 0.25-0.50 INCH AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH 04/00Z. THIS PRECIPITATION AXIS WILL SURROUND A
QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY AXIS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS / SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE NC/VA COASTS. WITHIN
RELATIVELY DEEP CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW...SEVERAL WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVES WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AREAS. ONE HAD
PUSHED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. A SECOND
WAS ENTERING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAD RUN
OUT AHEAD...INTO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS BROAD
DISTURBANCE AND A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
WILL LEAD TO THE GRADUAL MIGRATION OF LOW PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY.

ONE CONCENTRATION OF HEAVIER AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST AHEAD OF THE LOW...NAMELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHERN VA WHERE LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED. THE OTHER AREA OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST IN THE AREA OF CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW
TRAILING THE LOW...OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BE MAXIMIZED.

COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST...CHANGE WAS SUBTLE...BUT WE
DID BRING THE QPF AXIS NORTHWARD IN OK/AR TO BETTER COINCIDE WITH
THE INSTABILITY AXIS AS FORECAST IN THE NAM. THE NEW DAY 1 QPF
USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE 12Z UKMET AND NSSL
WRF. THE GEM REGIONAL ALSO CONTINUED TO LOOK GOOD. THE GFS HAD A
BRIEF BLOW-UP OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND ITS QPF WAS GENERALLY SHIFTED NORTH OF OUR
PREFERRED SOLUTION ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT IN THE EAST.

EXPECT SOME 1-2 INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN OK INTO AR AND ALSO WESTERN NC / SOUTHWESTERN VA.


...WESTERN U.S...

THE ANOMALOUS H5 RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING A BIT NORTHWESTWARD
WITH TIME. A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE AND COINCIDENT INVERTED MID
LEVEL TROUGH WERE MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
CENTER...TRACKING INTO NV/CA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
AND ADEQUATE MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ARE CAUSE FOR CONCERN
OVER PARTS OF NV/CA THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...AN ACTIVE PATTERN OF DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
STATES...PARTICULARLY FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN
NM / EASTERN AZ. FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED HERE...WITH WPC STAYING
CLOSE TO AN OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS. WE DID INCREASE AMOUNTS
LOCALLY WITHIN THE MOIST PLUME OVER NV/CA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PW VALUES AT 1.0 TO 1.25
INCHES...REPRESENTING STRONG ANOMALIES OF 4+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS
FROM CLIMATOLOGY.


...NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...

HEIGHT FALLS WILL JUST GRAZE THE U.S. BORDER AS A TROUGH TRAVELS
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH TRENDED
FASTER EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND QPF TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER...OR
OF LESSER COVERAGE. STILL...EXPECT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN MN/WI AND THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS UNLIKELY TO EXCEED 0.25 INCHES.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 519876 519868 518863 517856 516852 512843 511830 507820
      503813 499806 494799 488794 484792 480793 477800 473808
      469818 465825 463833 460842 458852 456863 454873 454884
      453889 453897 453908 457928 462951 463955 465958 468960
      472959 476957 478954 478951 480952 481957 482967 486962
      491954 495946 499939 504934 509926 513917 517911 518900
      518885 519876
 0.01 468907 468905 468903 468900 467898 466900 466903 466905
      466908 467910 468907
 0.01 464981 462976 459976 455978 450978 445978 441980 438983
      438985 441988 445988 450986 455986 458986 462984 464981
 0.01 427676 425667 423660 422656 420655 416652 411651 407654
      402656 399660 388674 381683 375692 372696 367696 361704
      350722 339738 327752 320761 314770 312781 311787 313789
      317792 320790 323787 325788 324791 322796 320801 318806
      318813 316826 316833 317842 318855 322867 324872 325877
      326882 327889 327896 329900 329917 329926 329934 326947
      322956 322964 323969 320979 320986 327987 337987 340998
      344003 348004 351000 356001 360000 363003 372001 381998
      389993 405982 411981 417980 421978 423975 423971 420959
      415951 392920 398853 396846 395837 396828 397822 402814
      407805 410801 409794 408785 406779 402769 400765 399760
      392750 388746 387743 387740 404728 411722 414719 415713
      417708 420704 423691 427676
 0.01 421233 422223 421218 417215 418211 420209 420204 416201
      415193 412190 406189 403190 401188 398183 401179 407178
      410178 411176 409171 406168 402167 400164 397159 392157
      386156 380157 378158 377162 375177 374180 370180 365182
      362185 364189 379206 382211 386214 390218 393223 398225
      403225 400230 399234 399238 407240 412239 416237 420234
      421233
 0.01 409225 409223 407223 405224 407225 409225 409225
 0.01 415055 409039 408035 406032 403027 399021 397018 394018
      387017 381019 374014 369010 363007 359010 357012 352012
      344011 339013 335019 330025 331032 332035 331038 328045
      324049 318050 316052 315056 313059 311056 288061 281061
      277059 274058 270060 263058 257054 250050 247054 246059
      245066 251068 255073 259077 265081 272084 280094 293099
      301100 304095 309098 315095 318094 320096 322102 327105
      329108 331116 336119 340122 342124 347130 360134 364135
      368137 371143 377144 379142 379137 370126 362116 359111
      358108 359104 362098 367093 372088 379085 383079 387076
      392071 397067 403065 404063 407061 413059 415055
 0.01 326922 325914 322907 319901 317899 317894 314888 313886
      311888 311896 311900 310905 309913 308922 304935 302952
      303960 305964 307964 312961 316956 320943 325930 326922
 0.01 301819 301815 299812 295809 293804 291801 287802 283802
      280801 274799 268796 262796 254797 248800 245805 245811
      255820 257822 261822 267824 280826 285829 293829 298825
      301819 301819
 0.01 299998 299994 299991 297987 296985 293985 292987 290988
      288989 284991 284993 285995 287997 288000 291002 293002
      297002 297000 299998
 0.25 511872 509861 507852 504843 502831 500827 498825 496824
      494826 491835 486840 481847 478852 476857 476863 477875
      477888 477894 478900 482907 487911 489915 492915 499914
      501909 501903 501898 505897 509895 510890 510880 511872
 0.25 473848 473845 473843 473842 471841 469842 469843 468845
      468846 467848 467851 467853 468856 470856 471855 472853
      473850 473849 473848
 0.25 418666 415663 410662 404665 401669 396675 390683 387691
      385703 384707 382711 378713 375715 370719 365720 359722
      356726 351733 347742 345751 342761 340769 338780 334789
      332800 329809 329815 332820 335828 337831 337837 336846
      335861 336876 336889 336902 336915 333938 332947 330960
      330966 332970 339976 344982 355985 363985 366984 369980
      373972 375968 379965 385943 392949 396955 398960 404960
      408959 409955 403947 396939 384927 378922 375920 373914
      372909 369905 367896 366887 366880 369876 374874 379874
      382872 392874 394870 394867 391856 389844 388838 388831
      390819 390812 394807 389789 386778 382767 380756 378744
      378736 380732 385722 388719 392720 396722 401721 408717
      412709 414700 417688 418666
 0.25 395200 395198 395197 394195 393195 392194 390193 388192
      387192 385192 383192 381193 381195 382197 384200 385201
      387202 389202 391202 392203 394202 395200
 0.25 398051 396046 394043 389038 375034 367031 361027 356022
      353020 349020 343020 339021 335025 335031 337034 342037
      349041 350046 348055 348059 350062 355064 359063 366063
      374062 382061 388057 393055 398051
 0.25 351093 351077 349075 347074 344072 344070 345063 344061
      341059 337055 334054 331055 331060 335064 329075 327078
      326081 328085 332098 337102 339106 344111 346113 349112
      348105 347096 349094 351093
 0.25 349815 349813 349811 348809 348807 347807 346807 344809
      343810 342811 342812 341814 342816 342818 343820 345820
      347819 348818 349815
 0.25 291079 290077 289073 285072 282072 278072 274072 273075
      275077 277079 279080 283082 284083 288083 290081 291079
 0.25 283815 282814 281813 280813 279814 279815 281815 282815
      283815
 0.25 267806 265805 263805 261806 260806 258807 256807 254808
      256810 258810 260810 262810 264810 265808 267806
 0.50 505885 505878 504875 502870 502865 500854 495850 488852
      484858 482867 483871 485874 487884 492891 494892 496891
      500888 503887 505885
 0.50 411680 412674 410669 407668 404671 400676 396684 394692
      393700 394709 396713 398714 403710 408703 411697 411687
      411680
 0.50 388863 387853 384845 381843 378842 378837 381809 383803
      384798 384793 382785 379778 372752 370742 368740 365739
      359740 355743 351753 346765 345781 343788 340792 339798
      340799 342798 347788 351789 352792 354799 355807 355814
      353827 347831 344835 340849 339856 339864 340895 341912
      338925 336939 334952 333961 338965 345973 349976 356977
      362976 365972 369967 372960 373957 374955 377956 379956
      380955 379953 375949 373949 371946 368914 366907 364898
      361883 361878 361870 363865 366863 369864 375864 381866
      385865 388863
 0.50 381056 382047 382042 380040 375038 367038 363041 360046
      356051 356056 359057 361056 366052 372052 377055 381056
 0.50 350033 349031 348030 346029 346030 346031 347033 348033
      350033 350033
 0.50 343085 343082 341079 339078 336077 334080 334084 333086
      334088 335093 336095 338097 341096 341091 342087 343085
 0.50 335815 334813 333812 333813 333815 334816 335815
 1.00 375796 375787 375783 374778 370766 367759 364754 359754
      355759 352764 351770 352777 355776 359776 362781 362789
      360803 360810 363815 367815 370811 375799 375796
 1.00 370838 370833 370829 369824 367822 365822 363824 362827
      361830 360834 360836 359841 363842 366840 368839 370838
 1.00 367961 367954 367948 365938 363928 362921 362910 361898
      357890 354883 351873 350871 348872 346875 344880 344886
      344897 344915 343921 343927 341935 339940 339945 341952
      342958 344961 348969 352970 355968 361964 366963 367961
 1.50 370795 370793 369791 368788 367788 367789 367791 366792
      366793 365796 365797 364798 364800 364802 364805 365806
      367804 369802 370799 370797 370795 370795
 1.50 364958 363947 362938 359931 357927 358925 359916 359905
      357902 354901 352898 352892 350882 348881 347884 347893
      346899 347903 349906 351914 352924 350930 346932 344935
      344940 345944 348961 350965 353965 357961 362960 364958
 2.00 354958 354956 354954 353954 352952 352954 352956 352957
      353958 354959 354958

$$





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