Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 130659
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 13/1200 UTC THRU JUL 14/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1 UPDATE...

ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 PACKAGE FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE
INITIAL 6-HR PERIOD AND WERE BASED MAINLY UPON RECENT
SATELLITE/TRENDS AND THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS.  OVERALL...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.


DAY 1...

...MIDWEST...

A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY LATE SAT THROUGH SUN WITH A RARE JULY
SYNOPTIC SCALE HEAVY RAINFALL. A SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX CUTTING
UNDERNEATH A DIGGING ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
VERY FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET STREAK
DYNAMICS/VERTICAL LIFT TO CLASH WITH DEEP MOISTURE POOLING INVOF
OF A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. A 90 TO 110 KT 250MB JET IS
DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTN... WHILE 2 TO 2.25 INCH
PWS POOL INVOF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND TRUE SURFACE COLD FRONT. A
BLOSSOMING OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS IA/SERN MN THIS AFTN... BEGINNING TO OCCUR ALREADY
VIA RADAR IMAGERY... AND SLIDE INTO SRN WI INTO NRN IL THIS
EVENING IMPACTING THE MKE/CHI METRO AREAS... INDUCING ALMOST A
TROUGH FRONTAL WAVE. THIS BLOB OF HEAVY RAIN WILL THEN TRANSITION
DOWNSTREAM OVERNIGHT THROUGH LOWER MI... WHILE FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
RAINS PUSH INTO NRN IN/IL AND UPSTREAM INTO NRN MO/KS. EXPECT
POSSIBLE 1 TO 2 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS WITH MORE ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLY PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. BY SAT... THE
FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
WITH DIURNAL HEATING WITH 1.75 TO 2 INCH PWS AVAILABLE... EXPECT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE OH RIVER INTO WRN PA/NY STATE
WITH PERHAPS SOME LESS ORGANIZED PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
DOWNSTREAM. OVERALL WPC FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE
INTERNAL PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ON QPF AMOUNTS.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH SINKING SOUTH DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WEAK SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS DROPPING
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH ERN CO WILL SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. PERSISTENT HIGH PWATS... AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE AVG... WILL POOL INVOF OF BOTH FEATURES... WHILE INCREASING
ERLY TO ESERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE RAINS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN... POSSIBLY BECOME ORGANIZED AND SLIDE
SEWRD TO PERHAPS SHEAR OUT INTO WRN KS WHILE THE BULK OF THE HEAVY
RAINS REMAIN CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS TOWARD THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE. THE GUIDANCE ALL HAVE A SIGNATURE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
POSSIBLE AREAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2 INCHES NEAR THE TERRAIN. WPC
FOLLOWED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE.

...SOUTHWEST...

AN UPPER LOW TRACKING WEST ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND UNDERNEATH THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER NV/UT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION WITH SOME SPOTS OF BETTER
ORGANIZATION. THE MOST OPPORTUNE AREAS INCLUDE WRN NM AND ERN
AZ... AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
CHANNEL SET UP THROUGH THIS REGION. WPC FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE.

...SOUTHEAST...

A DECAYING FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COASTS WITH A FEW
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES SHOULD SET THE STAGE AGAIN FOR MOSTLY
DIURNAL AND SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY FROM COASTAL SC/SERN GA TO SRN
LA/SOUTHEAST TX AND ACROSS FL. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK FORCING
AND STEERING WITH POOLING OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE... PWS AOA 2
TO 2.25 INCHES... SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. NO
DEFINITIVE LARGE SCALE AREAL AMOUNTS OR ORGANIZATION IS
ANTICIPATED FROM COASTAL SC TO SRN GA/NRN FL TO SRN LA/SERN TX BUT
THE MOST OPPORTUNE AREAS APPEAR TO BE SRN LA AND SERN SC...  WHILE
ENHANCED SEA BREEZE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA. OVERALL WPC FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE OF THE DATA ON QPF
AMOUNTS WITH
UP TO AN INCH... BUT LOCAL 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOWER MOVING STORMS.

MUSHER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 14/12Z
 0.01 529732 522712 518701 516696 513693 501676 487669 488664
      489659 487655 483656 480657 478656 474652 469643 463635
      459636 454638 446644 437651 429668 423684 419709 411726
      408731 404735 400739 396742 394747 393751 392758 389761
      385769 386777 375790 368797 365805 361814 356820 351828
      346838 347843 349844 352844 354846 351852 349855 348859
      349862 353864 356860 358857 361855 364853 364858 362869
      361874 358879 353889 350899 349902 353905 359907 361902
      363901 361911 356962 351984 348995 346001 345007 345009
      342014 341018 341024 343048 342050 340051 334050 330048
      327049 324051 322056 324060 328063 334064 338066 331070
      327072 324077 323082 323086 319088 315088 309081 305078
      300075 292070 286069 284067 276062 271061 268059 263059
      259057 251060 249063 245064 238069 234074 233079 235083
      243090 248097 253104 260111 264115 270118 273119 277118
      281120 284124 288130 297127 307129 309130 313128 317126
      322128 324130 326127 328123 332121 339126 345132 357134
      365131 369127 373127 374130 377131 378128 381124 382119
      389116 393113 393110 376112 368115 365117 362116 358112
      351106 351101 355102 360103 363101 365099 366093 365089
      362085 369081 371085 375086 378085 383079 391075 394071
      396067 399064 404063 410066 414066 416063 419063 421065
      426073 429076 431081 424086 424093 426097 430100 434101
      442100 446099 450097 450092 445091 441088 438084 436078
      437074 441075 445077 448080 449076 446071 444067 439065
      434062 431058 428054 426051 425047 426041 425037 422027
      418020 412012 411005 410000 410996 412994 415994 423994
      431992 434989 435983 433971 428945 425934 423930 419928
      415926 414929 409937 406946 403950 401956 398966 394977
      391986 387997
 0.01 387997 386002 384004 382001 382997 380997 378996 377993
      380980 382976 386974 390972 391966 393954 395940 396933
      397929 399917 399914 401916 403921 403924 405924 407917
      407912 409908 418889 422880 425877 425869 424862 422857
      418851 414855 412859 411854 412849 420830 428826 437822
      466799 466807 469811 476816 484821 490826 495825 499823
      507818 512815 516812 519803 526781 527768 527760 528753
      529732
 0.01 535989 533979 530971 525952 522945 520936 517927 517913
      516908 515903 512895 510892 506893 503893 500896 496901
      494904 492903 483892 478887 473880 468878 464883 465895
      465901 464907 455920 453927 453933 452938 454948 457954
      460959 465965 470971 470977 472982 475987 480992 492001
      498003 506004 512007 517007 519005 523006 524004 529000
      533994 535989
 0.01 489218 489214 487211 483210 480211 474213 472214 469212
      469208 468205 463201 459199 456197 459191 463186 468182
      466179 464178 460178 458180 452194 449200 450203 446201
      444201 441197 438196 431197 427200 426207 430212 432215
      433220 433229 435235 435238 433240 432244 433247 437249
      441249 451247 463243 467239 467235 464232 462231 459231
      457229 457224 466215 467220 470222 474222 489218
 0.01 381927 381925 382922 382920 380919 379920 379922 378923
      377925 375927 377929 379929 380929 381927
 0.01 366845 365843 363845 365847 366845
 0.01 352777 352775 348776 345779 343781 341780 339778 335775
      309783 302784 295784 288784 281785 274784 266785 263786
      261784 254784 245791 242797 239801 237804 237808 239814
      242819 246823 264834 273842 281848 287850 290855 292873
      292883 290890 289895 289899 286901 280902 279904 278908
      275921 273929 273938 274945 276950 289968 295967 301964
      311960 312958 313954 314947 315938 316932 318925 319917
      320900 321894 320886 319868 319857 320851 320842 321836
      322829 325823 327818 331813 344794 349785 352777
 0.01 277799 275797 273796 271796 271795 269794 268794 266794
      264795 262795 261797 262797 264797 266797 268798 270798
      272799 274800 276800 277799
 0.25 510771 509765 507761 504760 500761 494766 490771 485776
      479782 477784 476790 479792 483793 490793 494792 498791
      504789 508781 510773 510771
 0.25 484702 484696 483692 480686 470678 466678 462681 458686
      450696 441706 432717 428722 423726 418732 412736 401743
      397749 396757 387786 379797 373809 371817 371826 372838
      371846 367860 365868 365879 369887 369897 369904 369914
      372918 375914 378907 382901 384891 385883 388868 392854
      398839 403827 405822 408820 412816 418812 426811 429809
      429805 425802 422801 421797 423790 426784 427781 431782
      435785 438788 438791 439797 441802 446802 450798 453791
      456784 460777 466774 471770 474762 475755 475732 481720
      483710 484702
 0.25 461666 459661 455662 451664 447668 444671 442674 440680
      442681 445678 448674 453673 456674 459671 461666
 0.25 417052 417047 414043 411040 408040 404043 401043 400041
      394035 392032 388029 383033 382036 379037 376037 379031
      384026 382022 379018 369019 366017 364014 364006 364000
      361001 367981 370973 373961 373956 372953 368955 365958
      362966 359977 358982 357988 358998 356002 355008 354022
      354026 356028 359031 360036 358040 351059 355062 357065
      361068 366068 369060 372057 375059 377063 383064 387063
      390061 406049 408053 412053 417052
 0.25 349114 349111 348108 345103 343097 342091 339085 335082
      332081 331084 333089 335095 336099 338100 339102 340106
      342112 344115 347115 349114
 0.25 335058 334057 332056 330056 329055 327056 326057 327057
      328059 330059 332059 334059 335058
 0.25 329801 327796 324794 320793 318788 309790 303796 305799
      308799 315795 319795 321801 320806 317810 313812 310816
      314818 317817 321814 324811 329803 329801
 0.25 318116 319110 318105 309100 305098 303094 299084 297082
      292079 283075 275071 271068 266068 262069 259072 259078
      261082 272098 272100 269101 264099 260098 260101 262102
      266105 269108 275109 278109 282111 287118 290121 296122
      300121 303121 306124 309126 316118 318116
 0.25 306928 307920 307916 306912 302908 299905 295905 293907
      293910 293913 295920 295925 295928 298929 301928 302933
      305935 306928
 0.25 302825 301822 299821 293820 282817 277815 275813 275810
      276807 270804 265802 261803 256806 252807 251810 251814
      257818 267822 278825 283826 289824 294826 297826 302825
 0.25 300945 301943 299941 299943 298945 299946 300945
 0.25 298949 298947 297945 297947 297949 297950 298949
 0.50 461704 458705 455708 451712 445714 439716 435719 428726
      421732 418736 414739 404743 400746 399752 398759 399764
      395775 392786 386794 380801 375811 375837 373849 369860
      368866 367871 370885 372896 373902 375904 379899 381894
      383883 384872 385865 387860 392849 396839 402818 407794
      416791 419786 420780 422766 423761 427758 434753 440745
      447738 453729 455722 459717 461714 461710 461704
 0.50 454769 455764 452762 451762 448764 445766 443768 442771
      441774 441777 441781 443783 446782 448780 450777 452774
      453772 454769
 0.50 393052 392048 388046 381048 374048 367050 361050 358051
      356055 356057 359060 361060 363058 368054 376053 383056
      387056 390054 393052
 0.50 370037 370034 370032 370030 369030 368031 366031 365032
      365034 364035 364036 363038 362041 364042 365042 367042
      368041 369039 369037 370037
 0.50 366976 367974 366972 367970 366968 365969 364972 364974
      363976 362977 362978 362981 362983 363983 364982 365981
      365978 366977 366976
 0.50 346112 346110 345109 344108 344109 344110 345112 346112
      346112
 0.50 313116 315111 312107 310104 307104 301102 296101 289099
      290096 292096 295093 297090 297086 295084 281077 276073
      272072 267072 272087 276092 281097 286103 288110 289113
      292116 300115 310121 313116
 0.50 268818 268816 267814 266814 265813 264811 264810 262809
      260810 258810 257811 256812 256814 257814 258815 259816
      261817 263818 264819 266819 268818
 1.00 414748 415746 413744 411744 410744 409745 408746 407747
      406748 405750 403753 403754 403755 403756 405756 407755
      409755 410754 412752 413751 413750 414748
 1.00 400795 397792 393794 390798 386800 383802 380806 379811
      379816 380827 380832 378837 376848 373857 371866 373878
      373891 374896 378895 380891 380884 382873 382866 383861
      384857 387854 390850 392846 395837 397827 399816 397805
      400795
 1.50 396826 395815 394812 393807 394803 391801 385803 381808
      380811 381816 383823 384832 382838 379844 376851 375860
      375867 375871 377875 380870 380864 382856 383852 386851
      390846 393839 396826
 2.00 392819 391810 390808 387808 385805 382810 383816 384820
      384825 384834 384841 383845 385847 388844 390838 391831
      392821 392819
 2.00 382850 382848 381847 380848 379848 378850 378852 377853
      377855 378857 380857 380855 381852 382850

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