Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 271832
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 28/0000 UTC THRU JUL 29/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

FLORIDA

WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS FCST TO REMAIN ACRS NRN FL WITH AXIS OF ABOVE
NORMAL PWS STAYING ACRS THE NRN PORTION OF THE STATE.  COMBINATION
OF THE TWO WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY ACRS THE NRN
PART OF THE STATE.  STILL SOME INDICATION OF WEAK CIRC JUST OF THE
WEST COAST OF FL THAT SOME OF THE MODELS DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST
AND WEAKEN DURING THE PD.  THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW TOWARD THE
WEST COAST MAY KEEP HEAVIER AMOUNTS ALONG THE WEST COAST NEAR AND
NORTH OF TAMPA.  THE VERY HIGH PW VALUES AOA 2.25 INCHES COULD
LEAD TO ISOLD VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACRS THIS AREA.

NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE UPPER MS
VALLEY

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND EVOLVING INTO A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW ACRS
NE MT INTO SRN CANADA MON NIGHT INTO TUES.  SOME VERY HEAVY RAINS
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING COMMA HEAD WITH COUPLED
JET DYNAMICS..STRONG TROWAL COMING INTO PLAY.  SOME OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS LOOK A BIT EXTREME WITH QPF AMOUNTS...LIKELY DUE TO POOR
HANDLING OF DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION ROBBING INFLOW...BUT STILL COULD
SEE AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2+ INCHES GIVEN THE ABOVE.   FARTHER
TO THE EAST---FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO ENHANCE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN A REGION OF VERY STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.  THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND RATHER LARGE
SPREAD WITH QPF DETAILS IN GENL IN THE WAA LIFT AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCD FRONT ACRS THE UPR MS VALLEY MON NIGHT AND TUE. SOME OF THE
ISSUES ARE PROBABLY TIED TO INITIAL WEAK MCS OVER IA WHICH IS NOT
BEING HANDLED WELL BY MOST HI RES AND GLOBAL MODELS.  THIS MAY
HELP TO IMPEDE NWD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONTAL BNDRY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PD WITH DVLPG NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET HOLDING PCPN FARTHER SOUTH.  OF MODEL CHOICES...THE 12Z
WRF ARW AND NMM SEEM TO BE BEST FIT CONCEPTUALLY..WHICH WOULD
PLACE HEAVIER QPF EMPHASIS ACRS SRN MN INTO NRN IA..SW WI.

NORTHEAST---MID ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND OH
VALLEY

WEAK NW FLOW PATRN ALONG WITH MDTLY HIGH PWS STRETCHING NEWD FROM
THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLC AND THE NE COAST..WILL SUPPORT SCTD MAINLY
DIURNAL CNVTN.  WEAK SFC FRONT SLIPPING SEWD FROM THE NE AND MID
ATLC MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE.  AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH
QPF DETAILS ACRS THIS REGION AND HEAVE TAKEN AN ENSEMBLE APCH TO
QPF AMOUNTS WITH SOME INPUT FROM HI RES MODELS.

SOUTHWEST NEWD INTO THE CNTL HI PLAINS...

WEAK RETURN FLOW MSTR AROUND UPR RIDGE INTO THE SOUTH WILL SUPPORT
SCTD MAINLY AFTN/EVENG TSTMS FROM SRN AZ/NM NEWD INTO ERN CO/KS.
MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN PCPN AXIS.
WITH RATHER WEAK FLOW IN LOW/MID LEVELS...AND LACK OF ANY STG
FORCING ALOFT...MODELS ALL AGREE ON MAINLY LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT
AREAL AVG AMOUNTS WHICH SEEMED REASONABLE AND GENLY FOLLOWED.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 562993 554972 546952 537931 532922 524917 507909 499905
      491902 477896 470894 461894 450895 444895 440894 431892
      426893 420894 410895 399892 394890 391890 389892 387889
      388884 391862 389850 388837 390816 392805 397798 398792
      398785 397777 397769 401758 405750 413730 414725 417720
      419716 421716 422718 424720 428720 435717 431736 434744
      437750 440753 450750 454757 458754 461751 461737 463725
      465719 468715 480698 488691 494684 496674 494658 492651
      489648 483645 475643 468640 463635 459634 455634 450636
      446639 441642 438646 431654 426662 419683 417693 417697
      416699 413703 407709 401716 391729 380743 372760 370765
      367768 364772 359775 357787 357792 354796 349804 343811
      334817 328818 323816 319817 316819 312820 308819 303812
      301807 302803 315792 318789 322785 325782 328777 330773
      332768 333757 332744 329740 326736 323734 317734 312738
      309741 303748 298756 293761 289767 280780 274789 270797
      267806 266811 262812 257814 255817 255824 257829 258836
      261840 266847 272853 276857 280858 286856 289854 295846
      301846 304848 306851 309854 320854 323856 325860 330867
      334874 338882 341884 345884 351882 357881 363881 367885
      370889 372891 372895 370906 369912 369920 370932 371933
      375927 379918 382908 385898 386895 388894 388899 390904
      390908 393914 391913 390918 392923 393929 396938 398943
      395948 390957 384964 379973 366988 360995 356004 340041
      334046 330048 325046 318045 313045 309043 304040 300040
      296046
 0.01 296046 291045 284043 274040 269040 262041 255040 250038
      241034 237033 234035 231039 229045 230052 233057 241063
      247071 254079 263086 272091 274094 277096 297107 302109
      307112 313120 317120 322117 324115 325111 326103 321084
      315082 313078 313071 317067 323069 325075 328080 330085
      332092 335097 338101 340106 342118 344123 346118 351114
      349109 346105 344099 343092 345086 344079 337071 333067
      335063 339061 342063 347070 357067 362066 369066 371066
      372062 373053 376049 380044 385043 389039 399035 404034
      407029 410025 414029 426042 431040 434040 438044 441049
      442054 440059 439066 434073 436076 438077 444078 453084
      455088 453093 445098 441101 440108 443115 446118 456125
      458131 454133 447137 447148 447150 450151 457152 460153
      464149 476147 479148 481150 486154 488155 490157 494156
      502152 506148 508143 513131 517127 520125 521125 523121
      525116 530104 533097 534090 536083 537073 539065 541058
      545047 547042 548036 553026 555018 557010 562993
 0.01 456001 455999 454998 453996 453995 451994 450993 448995
      448998 450999 451000 453000 455002 456001
 0.01 401991 401986 400982 395986 391990 387995 383999 380004
      378010 376013 377017 381013 386008 390004 394000 398995
      401991
 0.01 303922 301920 299918 299916 297914 295914 293916 293918
      293920 294922 295923 297923 299923 301922 303922
 0.25 543003 543991 541979 539970 538965 535960 523960 516958
      510955 502955 496951 492952 491957 489960 486958 480955
      476951 471944 472937 478932 478926 477922 473915 470912
      466911 453907 440902 432900 422900 415905 407907 404909
      406912 411913 414916 415920 414926 411928 407949 407953
      409955 412957 414961 419968 422970 423974 425982 426985
      429987 432983 434979 435969 436963 438960 442959 445960
      456966 463969 467975 471983 472988 472994 467013 463019
      459022 456025 455029 456033 459035 462038 463043 464048
      464055 459064 458067 458072 465084 467094 468104 474110
      481114 489115 497114 507109 513104 517096 529058 533051
      536042 538034 540024 542012 543003
 0.25 501949 499948 497949 499950 501950 501949
 0.25 467664 467659 465656 459658 452668 449674 448680 455688
      456700 456705 455712 453719 454723 456722 459718 461711
      460704 461699 462695 460692 459684 460677 463672 466667
      467664
 0.25 376783 371785 368791 363798 361805 360810 358819 361821
      365821 369820 371817 372808 372803 374799 375790 376783
 0.25 313098 314096 314094 313092 311090 309090 308092 308094
      309095 309096 310098 311098 312099 313098
 0.25 303095 301084 298078 290073 285072 282073 276073 273070
      269068 268072 272079 278086 285091 292096 298099 303095
 0.25 297828 295817 294811 293807 288804 283805 277811 272818
      267825 266829 268835 272841 279846 283846 287845 292839
      296830 297828
 0.50 532034 533009 532005 530002 526999 517988 512983 509983
      501985 494987 487987 482988 477992 473999 474006 472014
      465027 464030 464035 467040 471046 471051 470057 467063
      463067 473096 477102 482105 490107 495107 501105 506101
      510096 513090 518072 524060 527052 529045 532034
 0.50 462930 462925 460920 455916 443909 437905 431903 426903
      422905 422912 422917 421921 417928 414935 412942 420954
      422958 425960 431957 439955 447956 456956 459953 460949
      461932 462930
 0.50 291824 290818 288814 286812 282817 277821 274824 272830
      273837 277840 281841 285841 289837 291830 291824
 1.00 522038 522032 521023 519017 516015 507019 503021 501021
      497018 491017 486017 483018 479022 478028 479032 481032
      485034 482038 479042 481047 481051 478056 474064 472066
      471069 473075 476084 482093 486096 490097 496098 500096
      505088 510079 514068 519057 521052 521044 522038
 1.00 446930 443921 439911 436908 432907 429908 428914 428921
      426925 421926 419931 419933 420934 425932 427935 426943
      428949 435949 442949 445944 444937 444934 446930
 1.00 286833 286831 286829 285829 284827 283827 282826 280827
      279828 278828 277830 277832 278834 279835 280836 282836
      284836 285835 286834 286833
 1.50 513048 513039 511032 510029 507029 502031 498034 494038
      491044 489050 483060 479065 477069 477074 485085 488090
      492092 498090 500085 506073 509065 510058 513048
 1.50 440942 439940 439935 439930 438928 437923 436921 434918
      432919 432923 431927 431930 431934 432938 433941 435943
      438943 440942
 2.00 503067 500062 498056 493057 489060 485065 482070 483076
      488080 491084 495084 496082 499077 502070 503067
 2.00 502049 503047 503044 502042 501039 500038 499039 497041
      496044 495046 497049 498051 498052 499051 500051 502049
      502049

$$





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