Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 130853
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
352 AM EST WED DEC 13 2017


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 13/1200 UTC THRU DEC 16/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

...NORTHEAST...

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF MAINE THIS MORNING
INTO EASTERN CANADA WITH STG CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE
SUPPORTING LINGERING MAINLY LIGHT SNOWS IN THE WRAP AROUND
BAND..WITH SNOWS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WED NIGHT AS MAIN
CIRCULATION PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.  MODELS WERE
GENLY IN AGREEMENT HERE ON QPF AMOUNTS AND A GENLY MODEL BLEND
ALONG WITH CONTINUITY WAS USED.  SEE QPFHSD FOR MORE DETAILS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE
CNTL APLCNS...

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A SWATH OF SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CNTL APPALACHIANS
WED INTO THUR MORNING.  AMBIENT AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SFC
LOW TRACK IS QUITE DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MSTR THAT
WILL BE LIFTED AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ASSOCD WARM FRONT.  THAT
SAID...THE SFC WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN DECENT DEPTH
AS IT TRACKS ESEWD ACROSS SRN WI THEN EWD THROUGH CNTL OH BY EARLY
WED NIGHT.  THAT ALONG..AN ASSOCD JET STREAK AND AREA OF CHANNELED
LIFT IN THE 85H-5H LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO A DECENT SWATH OF .25 TO
.50 INCH LIQUID EQUIVS..IN THE FORM OF SNOW.. FROM ERN WI..CNTL
AND SRN MI...NE OH AND WRN PA/SW NY THIS PD DESPITE THE RATHER DRY
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE WAVE.  SOME SMALL NORTH/SOUTH DIFFERENCES
STILL REMAIN REGARDING THE AXIS OF HEAVIER LIQUID EQUIVS BUT
PREDICTABILITY OF THIS NARROW BAND IS TOO SMALL TO FAVOR ONE SOLN
OVER ANOTHER AND THUS STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO A MIDDLE GROUND SOLN
ALONG WITH CONTINUITY.  SEE QPFHSD (HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION) FOR
MORE DETAILS.

ELSEWHERE...
ACRS THE NRN AND CNTL ROCKIES...MODELS HAVE TRENDED FROM
ESSENTIALLY DRY TO PRODUCING LOCAL .10 TO .25 INCH AMOUNTS THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF WRN CANADIAN UPPER RIDGE.. THEN DIVING RAPIDLY SEWD THROUGH THE
NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY WED EVENING AND CNTL ROCKIES BY THUR
MRNG.  COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER FORCING AND SOME WEAK EASTERLY
UPSLOPE IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A SWATH OF MAINLY LIGHT PCPN
AMOUNTS FROM WRN MT/ID SEWD INTO CO.  A SEPARATE MORE ERN IMPULSE
DROPPING SWD FROM MANITOBA WED NIGHT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SOME LIGHT SNOWS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS.  MODEL SPREAD
FOR BOTH SYSTEM WAS GENLY SMALL WHICH ARGUED FOR FOLLOWING AN
ENSEMBLE APCH.


DAYS 2/3...

WPC QPF WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...GFS...AND
UKMET...WITH GREATER WEIGHT PLACED ON THE ECMWF AND GFS.

...GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC...

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MENTIONED IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL BE MOVING
OFF SHORE VERY EARLY IN THE NEW DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD (12Z
THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY).  WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE A LITTLE QPF
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND AS MOISTURE WITHIN THE
BROAD CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE...ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND THEN MAKE
THE TURN EASTWARD.  THERE WAS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON ONE AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT IN THE REGION OF DIFLUENT FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FEATURE...WHERE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
FORCES LOW LEVEL ASCENT ISENTROPICALLY.  THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS HEAD EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD...PULLED ALONG BY THE AXIS OF 110
KT TO 125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET DIGGING SOUTHEAST.

WPC MANUAL FORECASTS WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF
LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE EARLY ON DAY 2.  THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS ARE
CROSSING THE LAKES AT THAT POINT...RESULTING LARGE DEL T VALUES.
GIVEN WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...WAS NOT INCLINED TO GO TOO MUCH
OVER THE GUIDANCE BUT FELT THE MODEL VALUES WERE UNDER DONE.

...GULF COAST REGION...

MODELS SHOW SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL OCCUR IN A REGION OF
INCREASING ASCENT NORTH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK. WPC QPF TRENDED
WETTER DURING THE DAY SHIFT AND THERE WAS LITTLE REASON TO BACK
OFF THOSE AMOUNTS BASED ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS.  THE ECMWF REMAINED
MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING THE MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED QPF WELL
NORTH INTO TX WHILE THE NAM/GFS AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE
UKMET WERE MORE SUPPRESSED.  WE GAVE MORE WEIGHT TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS BUT DID START TO ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN
NORTHWARD CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST.  IT IS ASSUMED THAT THERE WILL STILL NEED TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS IN UPCOMING FORECASTS.

...NORTHWEST...

A SHARP RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
 THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW COAST LATE DAY
2.  THE MAIN TROUGH THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. THE ECMWF TENDS TO SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING
POST FRONTAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SULLIVAN/BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 14/12Z
 0.01 477618 483623 488629 494634 497636 499640 504647 509655
      512663 515673 517678 518686 520702 522738 522746 522752
      521758 519763 516772 512779 503780 499781 495779 482773
      479769 478764 477761 476753 475742 475738 474736 472736
      464742 458746 450753 447754 444757 440761 438766 436778
      434790 438803 441804 443800 446798 450801 454808 454813
      453818 449825 448831 447831 446837 448841 450846 452847
      454845 456845 458849 456853 457858 468850 470853 472860
      476862 479867 481870 483875 486886 505913 514926 515931
      515936 517941 517948 517954 515957 508963 492968 491971
      492975 496977 503984 509991 512995 513000 511001 515002
      518001 523001 528002 530004 534005 537008 543013 545016
      548017 553021 555032 556041 555049 551063 549066 546068
      544071 541071 539067 538062 535056 533053 529053 511056
      496050 494047 489045 486043 481042 477044 475047 470053
      462054 457057 440060 439057 439049 443036 454026 462020
      468013 472005 475001 478999 482999 485997 489997 491995
      490992 484987 478986 463980 457978 453979 449979 445976
      443973 441968 438966 433954 430950 426947 421941 419938
      419934 421931 426930 428930 429927 430922 429918 429912
      427908 426901 424898 420891 418884 417879 414876 410873
      409868 399853 395844 391832 390820 385820 381823 376824
      372826 367827 365825 364819 366816 370814 373810 381796
      384793 387791 391788 393785 394777 394771 393765 388756
      385754 385749 383743 379741 373736 368735 363738 355744
      345746 340748 334750 317749 317744 318740 319732 320726
      322723 327718 333713 338708 352695 355694 360689 368682
      374675 379667 383660 389654 398644
 0.01 482155 483148 481141 477130 476126 475121 476116 474113
      474106 472103 470098 465089 459088 457086 454086 451085
      448086 444086 442084 439081 438078 440075 443076 447080
      451081 453076 450072 442070 437067 434062 430058 421052
      416050 412045 403039 393029 389019 388015 386015 386022
      382029 381037 381046 376049 370050 366053 362055 370055
      374056 374060 366063 373070 374078 375082 393084 395087
      399085 403088 405093 406102 405106 404109 401111 403114
      406114 411113 414107 417104 421102 423110 424113 427113
      436122 445128 451138 455152 459156 465159 468160 469163
      474162 476162 479159 482155
 0.01 482977 484973 483970 477969 472964 470952 467942 464940
      462938 459938 452942 450943 449946 452952 455959 459969
      465976 468978 472979 475978 481979 482977
 0.01 445695 444689 442684 439685 438690 431694 423691 421690
      419692 419697 419704 419711 419716 419723 425731 433725
      433720 436717 440714 443710 445706 444698 445695
 0.01 441149 441146 440146 440144 440141 439140 437140 437141
      436143 436146 437146 437148 438150 440150 441149
 0.01 440740 440736 436734 434734 431734 427734 424735 421737
      421742 425743 427744 429745 432746 434747 437746 439743
      440740
 0.01 294839 294834 293830 289830 287833 284840 281847 278853
      276856 276861 278869 281869 284867 289862 291854 293847
      294839
 0.25 512694 507695 504689 501682 500679 497678 490670 485668
      479671 475675 473681 470696 472705 473709 475711 484717
      488719 494718 498715 503710 505704 506701 509698 512694
 0.25 467908 468905 468903 467900 467899 466900 465902 465903
      464905 465908 467908 467908
 0.25 453898 454890 454883 453874 450868 449862 447857 443854
      440849 435839 433833 431826 427817 424810 425801 426795
      424789 419787 415788 412798 408802 406808 408820 413833
      423851 427855 428861 430867 433873 443894 448902 451906
      453901 453898
 0.25 404706 405700 403694 401692 400686 399683 395681 392680
      391676 388682 389690 387697 386705 387710 389714 395717
      397717 401716 404708 404706
 0.25 407789 405789 404790 403790 402790 400791 398791 396792
      395793 394794 393795 391796 393798 395797 397797 399796
      400796 402796 404795 405794 405793 406792 407789 407789
 0.50 493692 493687 492683 490681 488680 486681 485684 484687
      483690 481693 481698 483700 486702 487704 489705 492703
      493700 493694 493692
 0.50 440868 440866 439866 438866 436866 436868 437869 438870
      440868 440868
 0.50 419820 419818 418817 417818 418820 418821 419820

24HR QP VT 15/12Z
 0.01 507304 501301 497298 492296 479293 472294 468294 465295
      460298 456298 452296 449293 448289 448281 446280 445277
      445272 448269 448254 455243 458239 461238 463236 465234
      466230 470225 472223 473219 473216 475214 479215 483214
      491215 493214 495217 501221 506223 511223 516221 516215
      514211 508196 505179 506169 509167 512170 517174 523173
      530170 532167 534161 537155 540156 542160 546167 547171
      547175
 0.01 562082 557087 549086 546085 542082 539078 536073 531067
      527063 521056 515051 509045 504046 500045 493040 489037
      487032 485011 473019 468021 468027 471031 474033 476036
      475042 472048 471056 468065 464070 456069 450063 445058
      442056 439057 437062 433066 426061 424059 421055 418048
      418045 420041 424041 427044 433049 435047 436044 435038
      427020 430013 426006 422999 415994 412994 408991 403984
      401982 401974 402968 404963 401961 397963 392967 385970
      381970 377968 375965 375959 377956 380954 384954 387949
      391940 395933 403933 416942 420948 423952 423956 424960
      426961 431961 433963 435959 435952 435949 437947 442947
      445949 452952 457959 465961 472962 480966 484969 486975
      489982 494988 496992 499995 502993 507993 511993 514996
      520999 535010 540014 546019 557031 562035 565040
 0.01 446629 450635 453639 454645 453648 451650 448653 444654
      438658 432665 426679 421695 418712 416719 412727 404739
      404748 401751 398750 389742 385736 384731 385725 386722
      384718 382716 377717 369719 360723 352724 345723 340722
      336719 335715 334710 335708 339702 358680 363675 369669
      377659 386651 394645
 0.01 528242 527239 527236 526233 525230 523230 522232 521232
      520234 519236 519239 519241 520244 521246 523245 525244
      525243 526244 528242
 0.01 530941 531931 529923 526918 520915 510917 505919 500922
      497923 495921 491917 485914 482907 485879 484869 482864
      479857 479844 477829 475825 473825 472823 468822 465826
      464831 462827 460825 460819 459807 458800 456793 455786
      448787 446792 442791 443798 439803 434806 431807 431810
      430813 428814 428819 430821 438827 436835 433840 429844
      426848 423853 420860 419866 415870 406875 418875 423873
      426872 428874 432874 433876 440876 444876 447877 450877
      453879 454883 454887 451893 450899 451903 455908 460910
      464915 466918 471918 480942 484945 490945 494946 496947
      501953 505957 509958 515958 520956 524954 528950 530941
 0.01 441762 441752 439749 436751 431753 428755 427757 427765
      428774 429783 433788 435785 435777 438770 440765 441762
 0.01 428791 427785 424782 420782 419787 417797 416802 415806
      414807 409815 406817 407820 411826 417821 421811 424810
      426805 428793 428791
 0.01 416064 416057 414054 411054 405053 402051 402049 405037
      403035 400034 398034 396036 394041 391042 389040 385037
      382031 381026 379024 375023 370023 368030 357033 352031
      350033 346038 345046 345048 348049 350051 350055 354057
      359061 358066 360069 365073 372074 374080 377082 381081
      386077 391080 394075 399076 401074 404073 408075 413074
      414071 414067 416064
 0.01 402792 401788 399790 396791 388796 381802 375812 372813
      371814 370820 370823 369826 369831 374824 379813 383810
      387806 394801 402793 402792
 0.01 366816 364816 363818 361818 360823 358825 358828 356830
      355834 355837 357834 359832 360830 361825 363823 363820
      366818 366816
 0.01 328720 329713 328709 325708 318711 311717 307724 303736
      303740 302745 297765 293775 291784 290789 291797 292803
      296805 300806 305806 307801 307797 311786 312782 316779
      317776 319770 319759 321746 321741 323736 327727 327723
      328720
 0.01 316048 312032 312028 310026 308021 307015 304012 285020
      285024 286028 290037 292040 293044 289045 281040 273040
      271035 270031 265030 265027 268024 272023 275021 280015
      284006 286003 281000 280997 279991 278983 279974 280968
      282964 286957 288954 289949 296929 296924 295920 292912
      288906 286902 286895 289854 291849 291845 292841 292836
      291832 287833 282833 279835 270847 265856 266860 270863
      274868 276879 273898 269906 267915 259933 251945 249948
      246950 243953 241957 239965 239975 240980 240986 238991
      237999 237009 237019 237025 238028 238039 237060 239072
      238084 246086 252085 256079 259076 264078 270083 276081
      281073 284069 287069 289071 292077 297082 302083 305082
      309079 311075 312068 314058 315051 316048
 0.25 522264 521263 519261 518260 516259 515258 513258 512258
      511258 510259 509261 509262 508264 508267 507269 507272
      507274 508277 509278 510278 511279 513280 514281 516282
 0.25 434766 435763 434762 432764 432766 431769 432771 433772
      434770 434768 434766 434766
 0.25 424796 424794 423793 422794 421795 420797 420799 421801
      422801 423799 423798 424796
 0.25 407672 406665 404661 401657 397656 389663 383669 378675
      372683 371687 372692 376692 381692 391689 399683 405677
      407672
 0.25 422869 421869 419870 421870 422869
 0.25 307055 307053 307052 307051 307049 306047 306045 306044
      304042 303042 302044 302046 302047 302048 302049 303051
      303053 304055 305056 307055 307055
 0.25 287933 286927 280926 276929 274933 270943 265951 257958
      254961 253966 252970 254975 257979 259984 259988 255992
      249998 246003 245009 245016 247019 251018 256015 264011
      266006 266998 265993 267988 270985 271977 272965 273959
      276954 281946 285939 287933

24HR QP VT 16/12Z
 0.01 557117 547102 543096 539089 537086 534080 532077 530075
      528076 526079 524082 524086 523102 525116 525121 527123
      529127 532133 533138 534144 534149 535152 534161 535170
      537183 536197 535205 533211 530215 529214 524214 522216
      521221 521226 520232 518235 517243 515247 516251 517255
      518261 517265 510268 505266 501263 496255 493251 489249
      481247 477248 471248 467248 462251 456256 448261 444260
      441256 442252 444247 452235 453232 451231 448232 445233
      441237 439241 438248 435252 431255 429258 425255 421247
      415240 414235 415227 423220 427218 430214 433211 438211
      444212 449210 456206 460207 466207 471203 477202 481202
      485203 493202 496199 496195 495194 491191 491187 489185
      486184 481181 479175 476173 473175 471178 464186 456193
      452195 448192 442190 441185 440180 438185 433193 430202
      428207 427211 421216 418211 416208 415203 415199 413198
      410195 407187 411173 406165 402155 402148 400143 397139
      397134 400129 404125 411108 414106 416102 415090 416084
      419081 426084 432085 436082 437075 436069 436064 438061
      446058 454054 458049 462043 467038 473038 475042 474047
      471051 469056 468063 468071 469078 473086 479094 482090
      484085 485072 485066 484062 485047 487041 487034 482012
      478004 475993 472987 468984 465981 463976 460971 458966
      456960 454952 450942 448930 450928 450923 450916 448911
      448906 450903 458903 461905 463903 462901 461891 462878
      460874 457869 454868 449869 445871 440872 422877 417881
      414881 411880 410877 409872 405859 404853 408849 416844
      414842 411843 407845 404848 401848 397844 396838 398834
      401825 405817 407811 407807 404807 401809 400814 397820
      394824 390824 387820 384816 383809 378807 377801 379796
      382793 388787 392784 397783 402776 404775 404771 406766
      407757 407754 410751 414743 423741 426735 422732 422730
      425729 428728 429725 431720 441713 451710 455710 460713
      462718 460717 461721 459724 457723 458727 454726 450729
      448734 450736 453735 459733 462728
 0.01 462728 466722 468719 471720 472725 473733 472746 471753
      466759 459765 463775 462779 464782 469788 471791 471796
      470799 472803 474808 476817 477821 476825 476840 476846
      477852 482869 483875 483883 483887 480892 474895 470901
      465907 472912 477916 480925 484933 489941 497954 504959
      510964 518965 526965 529967 534968 541973 542984 545991
      551998 553001 554007 556014 556024 562026 566030
 0.01 495151 494148 494145 494143 493142 492142 492143 490144
      490147 491149 493150 494152 495151
 0.01 447179 445177 444177 442176 440178 440180 441183 443183
      445181 447179
 0.01 427690 426685 425682 422680 419681 415681 411680 405675
      400676 393680 388686 384692 382699 381704 381709 380727
      384733 387735 388735 394729 400725 405720 411716 416710
      418706 418702 422695 427690
 0.01 435140 434138 432135 431131 428130 424131 422133 422138
      422143 423146 424146 428146 431145 433143 435140
 0.01 372690 369682 367679 364676 349684 337693 329699 324704
      319709 315716 310723 306731 298742 292749 289757 286764
      285772 284781 282790 284797 281805 282809 285811 290809
      293810 301808 304801 306797 308793 313786 321775 332761
      338749 343740 347734 357723 360720 363715 367708 370700
      372690
 0.01 299928 300911 299903 297895 297888 296877 296874 293871
      290868 286868 282868 282865 284858 287845 287833 286821
      285818 281818 276823 273829 272835 272852 271860 270865
      268867 259878 252906 250909 247911 240915 238923 240930
      241937 241944 233953 236968 238987 237997 236002 234009
      233018 233029 234039 236043 240050 245053 246059 249065
      251067 251071 249079 253085 260089 263091 266091 264085
      264077 266071 268068 272067 279065 276060 271046 270041
      272039 276039 278040 285041 291039 296025 292018 288017
      285014 292954 294938 299928
 0.01 277877 277875 274875 272880 270883 269887 267892 266896
      268901 269898 272894 273890 274885 276879 277877
 0.25 541043 541038 539033 535024 527017 521009 513003 509001
      506001 506003 508008 511013 517021 522032 525036 528040
      537046 539046 541043
 0.25 503996 500990 497982 492975 489969 484964 482962 479960
      478962 478968 479974 482982 485989 490994 497997 503998
      503996
 0.25 482138 481136 479136 477136 476137 475139 477141 478140
      480140 480139 482138
 0.25 469153 470150 469149 467148 466148 464148 462148 461148
      459149 457150 457151 456152 456155 458157 459158 460158
      461159 463160 465159 467157 468155 469154 469153
 0.25 458800 458796 456793 453795 450800 447806 443811 440815
      441818 442821 448822 452818 455813 457808 458800
 0.25 450855 450854 448855 448858 449858 450857 450855
 0.25 440760 439758 438760 439761 440760
 0.25 338718 337713 335711 327710 317720 310733 303746 298760
      296767 295775 295779 299781 303780 306778 315766 322754
      329740 331734 335727 338718
 0.25 286914 285908 284905 282907 272916 264924 259937 254937
      249940 246945 243954 243961 244970 246978 248984 243994
      241003 240012 240019 241026 245032 247034 251034 255033
      260029 267017 270011 271002 272995 273986 274978 275970
      277962 279955 281948 281941 281934 283926 286914
 0.50 327725 327722 324721 320724 314734 309742 305750 302762
      300766 301771 304770 310763 316755 321746 325738 327725
      327725
 0.50 272956 273950 273944 271940 270938 266939 262944 256945
      253947 249955 247960 246966 249975 252978 253983 253986
      251990 246998 244007 243014 244020 246023 249025 255025
      258023 263016 265012 266007 266986 266977 269968 272956
 1.00 257002 257000 255000 254000 253002 252004 251006 250008
      251009 253009 254008 254007 255006 256004 256003 257002

$$





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