Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 171850
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 18/0000 UTC THRU AUG 19/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

UPPER OH VALLEY---CENTRAL APPALACHIANS---MID ATLANTIC INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND

WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS LIKELY DAY 1 AHEAD OF THE
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY LINE---INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS---MID
ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.  MODEL SHOW THAT FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS WILL ENHANCE LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY---INITIALLY FOCUSING ACTIVITY
FROM THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY---PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD THEN FORM SOUTHWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC LATE THU AFTERNOON
AS THE BEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE FOCUSES ACROSS THESE AREAS.  WITH PW
VALUES MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE---2 TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN---ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT---LOCALLY HEAVY TO ISOLATED
EXCESSIVE TOTALS POSSIBLE .

NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY

IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING EAST
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER LAKES-OH VALLEY REGION---ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE PRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  WHILE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
NEXT ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY--THEY WILL NOT BE ANOMALOUS---MOSTLY NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS.  THIS AND THE EXPECTED QUICK SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
CELLS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP TOTALS IN THE MODERATE RANGE WITH
ISOLATED HEAVY AMOUNTS WHERE CONVECTION IS MOST ORGANIZED.

SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL
BECOME STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  PW
VALUES WILL BE HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT THAN POINTS
FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THIS FRONT LATE
FRI AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY
OF THIS BOUNDARY.  CONFIDENCE LOW ON DETAILS---BUT THE HIGHER PW
VALUES WILL SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 19/00Z
 0.01 541187 543176 543170 542165 537150 536144 530140 526145
      524155 522163 519171 515174 513186 512197 513206 520220
      523224 526226 529226 533220 536212 538205 540192 541187
 0.01 514269 515262 515256 515248 513243 508224 504215 501212
      496210 493209 489211 487215 490219 492222 494225 495231
      498235 502243 501250 497250 493243 489241 485240 480235
      476236 476240 480247 487254 497270 499274 503276 510273
      514269
 0.01 528825 527803 526781 524760 520746 514730 511724 507714
      500700 491685 481680 476678 471676 463672 452668 440665
      433664 427668 422670 420672 417674 414677 411683 407688
      405695 401701 396705 392710 379729 374734 369738 355745
      350744 348743 341744 337749 334756 324763 314770 306778
      299786 295787 293786 287789 283790 280792 277797 275800
      270800 263799 261796 257794 254793 249794 240800 234810
      234818 235826 237831 241835 246841 250848 254852 262855
      274859 280861 288861 292917 293923 295926 297931 305943
      309949 314956 317962 320969 326999 328003 332006 337009
      345009 349004 352002 354007 355015 356020 357025 359027
      362027 368026 377025 380026 382025 392019 399018 402014
      407010 411008 414006 417007 422011 426018 431022 433024
      437023 443018 448012 450010 453009 461009 466011 471016
      476019 482020 488018 491015 495013 499007 499996 497987
      491984 484981 481979 478975 485961 489955 491949 494944
      493941 492936 492929 497924 502924 505919 510906 515898
      517891 520882 522879 523872 525867 523857 523848 524839
      528825
 0.01 469915 465910 463905 458896 452884 449879 448870 448865
      445863 440860 435860 431862 425860 420858 420853 421851
      424848 428844 440842 445841 450838 450834 448832 443830
      439829 433830 427829 425825 424822 421821 415824 408833
      402842 396850 387859 378865 370871 364878 348895 342902
      338905 338912 340918 344923 355927 364932 372936 377939
      382936 386933 389929 403915 406910 408908 411907 422902
      431897 435898 438902 445911 448916 450918 453919 469915
 0.01 225050 227057 230062 240070 249077 258088 261092 265095
      271100 279101 285100 290102 295103 298102 305100 307094
      312092 314088 313084 310079 310075 310070 314066 325059
      330055 329053 319043 309038 301038 293039 288035 283032
      278027 276026 272025 266022 261019 247016 241015 236015
      231017 229021
 0.25 518845 517832 516821 511803 503783 500773 497762 492743
      489735 485727 480721 473718 469716 467711 464703 461692
      455688 449687 442688 425695 418701 412707 407713 404720
      402727 399734 395741 391749 385757 379764 376769 374773
      375777 382779 391777 395778 397780 399786 398792 397798
      394801 390808 384823 376834 372843 369847 365849 359854
      354859 351866 351869 353870 357869 362865 368862 373860
      377857 384851 393837 401827 411817 416809 419805 422802
      427801 431802 434804 436807 446818 452820 455822 456826
      459834 463843 468853 470858 470865 471873 472877 474880
      479884 481886 486886 495882 499881 503878 509872 514866
      517858 518845
 0.25 452966 452962 450958 448952 443948 440942 437943 433943
      432947 430952 432957 435961 439966 445967 452966
 0.25 426982 426979 424976 423973 422971 419969 417971 415973
      413975 412977 411982 413984 415985 418985 419985 422986
      424985 426982
 0.25 366967 364965 360963 355958 350952 346947 341943 337942
      334945 335950 336954 339961 341969 343971 348972 355971
      363969 366967
 0.25 312879 311864 309856 306853 303852 302844 305839 308832
      309824 308818 305812 302809 298810 291812 288813 285812
      281808 274805 267806 261808 259809 260813 265818 270822
      274824 278825 279828 274833 271839 273845 276849 286850
      292851 300859 297866 298874 300881 299887 297905 299913
      302918 306920 310918 311914 311909 311893 312879
 0.25 299086 298076 294067 289061 281055 275052 266048 251039
      243037 239035 235036 231039 230042 230049 230053 235059
      242066 254077 267087 275090 284090 291089 296088 299086
 0.50 511848 511831 511823 509817 503805 498793 493782 489772
      486753 484744 482739 479736 475734 471733 467731 455706
      453702 448699 440697 435698 430701 426705 424710 412727
      405736 398744 388761 383765 381770 382773 386773 392771
      401769 403769 407772 410777 415779 420782 425778 428774
      431770 434769 436770 438775 443787 446793 449797 453802
      455807 459817 462824 464830 472837 479844 484852 487858
      492863 496864 502864 506862 509859 510856 511852 511848
 0.50 411805 411801 409799 406799 397805 393814 387824 382832
      379843 382843 386839 391831 398823 404815 410807 411805
 0.50 302829 302825 302821 301818 299816 295816 293818 292820
      290822 287825 285827 287831 289832 291833 295833 299832
      300832 302829
 0.50 290081 290075 286070 277063 268057 258051 253049 247047
      241048 237051 238056 241062 249069 258076 268083 273084
      281085 286084 290081
 0.50 275813 275812 275811 273810 272810 271809 269810 267811
      266812 268813 269814 270814 271814 273814 275814 275813
 1.00 501844 502839 502834 501831 499828 497825 495823 493821
      490821 488823 488828 488833 489838 490841 492843 494845
      496846 500846 501844
 1.00 447739 443725 443717 444713 440711 436711 433713 430716
      431731 426735 424741 423744 421746 415750 412754 410756
      411759 415757 421757 422761 425762 429760 437753 443750
      445744 447739

$$





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