Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 220630
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
130 AM EST MON JAN 22 2018


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 22/1200 UTC THRU JAN 23/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

CENTRAL PLAINS---UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES

THE STRONG CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW WILL BE PUSHING STEADILY EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY REGION MONDAY AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST LOWER LAKES REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY.
OVERALL---THERE IS GOOD MASS FIELD EVOLUTION AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ON THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
POTENTIAL STRETCHING FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS---THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  A
WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND WILL
PERSIST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CENTER---WITH HEAVY SNOWS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THIS BAND FROM
FAR EASTERN NE---NORTHERN IA---SOUTHEAST MN---CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
WI INTO THE NORTHERN L.P. AND MUCH OF THE U.P. OF MI---EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN QB AND INTO NORTHERN MAINE.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD
FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY---TN AND OH VALLEYS---CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST

PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE...1 TO 2+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
EMANATING FROM THE LOW HEADED TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS FRONT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE DAY 1 AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD FROM ITS
INITIAL POSITION ALONG THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY---EASTWARD
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY-TN VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS-SOUTHEAST U.S. BY EARLY TUESDAY.  THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AFTER 1200 UTC.  THIS AND THE EXPECTED QUICK
MOVEMENT SHOULD LIMIT THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL---WITH
MOSTLY AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE TOTAL EXPECTED---WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

FL PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA

MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE--HOWEVER---IS SHOWING A SECOND SURGE OF
CONVECTION POSSIBLY FORMING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND AFFECTING THE FL PANHANDLE AND NORTH FLORIDA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  STILL A LOT OF DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO THE QPF DETAILS HERE LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
HOWEVER---WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS
ACROSS THESE AREAS--PRECIP TOTALS WERE INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST---NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE PUSHING QUICKLY EASTWARD DAY 1 FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST--ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.  AN INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE TO MID
LEVEL PATTERN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO LESSENING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH TIME
MONDAY MORNING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS
EXPECTED EARLY DAY 1 ACROSS THESE AREAS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 436632 448637 459642 465644 469649 476659 484671 488678
      490682 491687 496704 498712 500719 499739 499750 499754
      499760 496795 494814 488830 481859 477877 473892 468908
      464921 440974 437981 433988 423996 415004 402008 397009
      392005 388002 387997 385990 380979 378972 378963 361943
      361938 362937 366934 371929 373927 375925 374922 374909
      376901 373899 370900 363902 339910 328917 316924 305930
      300933 296937 291940 287946 277956 269965 265968 261970
      257970 255968 251968 250964 248956 249950 253919 253909
      253905 255903 259899 263895 266893 263891 257893 253893
      251891 247888 243884 239878 238874 237870 237864 246839
      251830 258820 274798 287792 302788 314783 325777 332772
      337769 342765 348760 359753 368748 381740 384738 387736
      392732 398728 401726 402723 404715 404708 404698 406694
      406690 409682 410675 411660 412652 413646 420641 427635
 0.01 483338 489333 493327 501310 505301 508292 512282 516275
      520265 521262 522255 522250 520245 516239 513230 510222
      501208 496202 493200 488200 476205 469208 461206 455210
      449213 442215 437219 435223 434229 432234 430236 423239
      422245 417251 413260 410269 407279 407287 411293 418299
      425303 440311 447315 452319 461329
 0.01 536209 537204 537198 538192 537189 537185 534183 532178
      525166 521162 517157 511154 507149 499141 490132 480126
      457098 455095 451093 448094 442095 439094 435093 433091
      428087 424089 426094 429100 424103 420104 419106 420113
      415113 412110 411106 408103 405105 404115 406117 411120
      414126 415132 415137 414140 410145 406149 402153 402155
      404156 409154 412154 414157 416162 417164 419163 422153
      429155 434159 438164 447172 450176 453176 453172 456166
      458164 462163 464163 466166 467170 469172 473176 479178
      483177 490179 496183 500187 507200 509205 513210 521218
      525222 530219 534215 536209
 0.01 497159 496155 494153 491151 488148 485145 482142 477141
      473141 472141 471146 474149 479152 482154 485157 490159
      495159 497159
 0.01 452129 451125 449122 446123 443122 441122 439125 437129
      436134 438138 439136 441134 445133 447133 450131 452129
 0.01 451080 451078 450075 448073 448072 446071 445070 443069
      441069 442072 442074 443075 444077 446078 448078 449080
      449081 451080 451080
 0.01 449051 450046 448044 447041 446039 445036 442035 440037
      440039 441043 443045 444048 446051 448051 449051
 0.01 416220 414215 411213 403209 397203 391198 377192 377198
      377202 372207 365210 359214 356224 358232 358243 358247
      361250 364252 366251 369247 370242 376236 381230 388228
      396229 405229 409228 412226 416220
 0.01 415076 414068 416064 411059 407056 406053 402053 400055
      402058 405058 410063 407065 403065 405068 407075 413076
      415076
 0.25 515264 516256 514249 510236 499214 488208 483208 477210
      473212 472216 473219 486224 489225 491227 493233 496239
      500245 502251 503254 501257 497253 494249 479233 476232
      474232 470236 470239 471242 476246 482249 485255 492266
      499276 503280 508278 515264
 0.25 519186 519183 518179 516177 514174 512172 509171 507172
      506177 507180 509183 511185 512187 515188 517188 519186
 0.25 492308 494301 495295 494289 492287 483270 477264 468261
      453260 445262 440268 438272 436278 435286 437290 439293
      444295 448296 455296 462298 468306 473313 478318 483320
      485318 492308
 0.25 484735 484727 483718 480704 476693 472682 470678 466675
      456679 451679 447679 438683 435685 431689 430695 429701
      432716 428724 427730 427735 427739 426742 423745 419754
      417757 415758 412756 407757 402760 396767 392774 384781
      370795 366801 360809 347823 343830 339840 341859 348867
      352868 349870 343877 335884 322894 316901 313905 312911
      314913 316912 320910 329904 337900 347895 363888 372886
      384886 394888 402892 410897 412901 413904 415916 417929
      416945 414949 410953 405961 402970 400975 401979 403981
      404987 409989 414987 418985 426980 430977 433973 438965
      447949 452938 456928 463908 470888 473874 474862 479836
      481811 483784 484755 484735
 0.25 465224 467219 465216 463215 460215 458215 454216 452217
      451220 453222 455224 458226 461227 464226 465224
 0.25 472158 473156 472153 471151 470150 469149 468147 466146
      464145 463146 462146 461148 460150 460152 460153 462155
      463156 465157 466158 468159 470159 472159 472158
 0.25 459240 460237 458236 457235 455236 454236 453236 451236
      449236 449237 448239 449240 451241 452241 454241 455241
      456241 458240 459240
 0.25 446114 446111 445109 444106 442105 441105 439105 437107
      436107 436109 436112 438113 440113 442114 443114 445114
      446114
 0.25 418844 417833 416825 413818 410812 407803 401804 395806
      387807 380806 377806 374808 369813 368820 363825 360832
      359838 354843 350847 356848 362847 368844 375841 380837
      385833 390831 390836 388839 384843 375853 366861 362867
      362870 364872 371874 375874 379873 389867 401861 412854
      416849 418844
 0.25 309824 306810 305808 302808 296807 290805 287804 283805
      277813 273818 270824 269829 268833 269835 275833 278834
      277836 276853 275859 271863 265872 265876 269880 274882
      280885 278889 278894 280901 284902 290899 294895 297891
      298884 298882 295880 301880 307877 309875 310871 305859
      306844 308834 309824
 0.50 509259 510254 509251 508246 506239 503233 500227 496223
      495225 495230 498236 501240 504247 506253 509259 509259
 0.50 499266 499264 498263 497261 497260 496258 496257 495255
      494254 494253 492251 492250 490251 490252 490253 490255
      491257 491258 492260 493261 494263 495265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.50 478752 478741 477730 475720 473713 471708 469707 464708
      457715 453730 449743 448746 445749 438750 436756 436763
      433779 432786 431790 429791 423791 420798 419804 419811
      422826 424835 423845 422851 420857 417864 414869 412876
      413883 417897 420903 422911 421931 421939 419947 417954
      413958 409963 406969 404975 404979 406982 408983 412982
      417980 422977 427974 435963 441954 447943 453931 457918
      461903 466889 467882 469874 469857 469845 470838 475806
      478790 478774 478752
 0.50 357832 357828 357823 354822 351823 349825 347828 346831
      345834 344836 344840 345844 347844 348844 351842 354839
      355837 357834 357832
 0.50 357877 354874 351875 345879 340884 334888 329891 326894
      324898 323901 326904 333900 338897 345893 351889 354883
      357877
 0.50 303842 304837 303831 300823 297815 292818 289824 286831
      284837 284842 287845 289847 289851 288855 291857 294855
      296851 300846 303842
 1.00 452920 453912 452908 450906 445906 440906 434914 432920
      431927 428940 425952 423961 431957 436955 438952 443942
      448932 452920
 1.00 435840 435839 433840 433842 433845 433847 433850 433852
      433854 434857 434858 435857 435854 434852 435849 434847
      434845 434842 435841 435840
 1.00 418966 417964 416965 415966 416966 417966 418966

$$





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