Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 210700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 21/1200 UTC THRU OCT 22/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1

MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DAY 1 WITH THE CLOSED LOW EVOLUTION
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.  THE
ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BACK THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTHERLY EARLY DAY 1 AND EVENTUALLY EASTERLY TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CLOSED LOW.  THIS WILL HELP FOCUS HEAVY
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IN THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST ONSHORE FLOW--WITH .50 -1 "+
PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE
COD---NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NH AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN MAINE
DEPICTED.  INLAND THROUGH INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND---NY STATE INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC---WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS
LIKELY IN THE DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION
BAND.  CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS HERE LESS THAN OVER EASTERN/NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND GIVEN MORE SPREAD IN THE QPF DETAILS.


SOUTH FLORIDA

PW VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY DAY 1 OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND
REMAIN IN THE 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN LEVEL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE IN THIS HIGH PW
AXIS AS FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS FROM A JET
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD.  THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF
DETAILS--BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE HI RES GUIDANCE FARTHER
SOUTH AXIS THROUGH THE KEYS AND FAR SOUTH FLORIDA.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A LEAD POTENT VORT WILL BE PUSHING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES--AND
THEN INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WELL DEFINED LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS VORT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS CENTRAL ID---SOUTHWEST MT INTO FAR
NORTHWEST WY.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS VORT---DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTH
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON---CONTINUING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL
SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA---SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE AND
INLAND THROUGH THE WA CASCADES.  THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
ARW---NMMB---NAM CONEST AND CMC GEM WERE USED FOR QPF
DETAILS---WITH MAX 5"+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE OLYMPIC RANGE.

SOUTHEAST NM INTO SOUTHWEST TX

WEAK UPPER TROFFING WILL PERSIST DAY 1 FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS/FAR SOUTHWEST TX AREA.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH QPF
DETAILS--BUT WITH PW VALUES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THESE
AREAS---ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 22/12Z
 0.01 450627 457634 461638 465643 471658 473667 472675 469687
      464699 463702 463706 465713 464733 462746 458759 456775
      455784 452791 449795 446800 439808 434813 431815 430819
      427824 422825 404827 401822 393822 378823 370818 368813
      371808 376795 375790 373788 369784 366780 365772 365769
      367766 367762 366761 362757 358750 355745 355740 356737
      359732 362729 371721 376717 371713 364713 359716 353717
      349715 347709 348703 354691 357686 361681 369673 373669
      379667 395663 399662 402659 403653 406650 411648 413644
      412640
 0.01 535220 536210 537204 537199 534185 531178 529171 526166
      524163 522162 513160 509159 505156 503155 501152 495146
      495142 496138 499131 502128 507125 524113 526107 526102
      525099 525096 527093 531089 540077 544071 547065 548062
      544062 542059 544056 547048 547038 541037 536039 527043
      521045 516046 505051 500052 494054 490057 489060 489067
      487072 480071 474068 472066 468064 464060 458059 456059
      454062 450068 444067 442067 441071 444075 449080 456081
      458079 461079 465078 468078 472080 474082 473086 469086
      465086 462091 460095 457097 454094 450093 444092 442090
      438089 436092 433090 429087 427085 424086 419087 418092
      419095 423097 424099 420104 416109 413108 412105 412099
      412096 408091 405097 402106 396108 384110 380113 378114
      377118 399125 407126 413126 419131 422132 426133 430134
      429139 425144 421149 416156 420166 416170 417175 425184
      431183 436180 438179 440181 443186 448188 451188 457184
      466175 468174 472174 478173 481174 482177 478183 475187
      472193 470200 466205 463204 459206 456210 443213 437214
      433219 427220 425222 426225 432230 433233 429233 418234
      414235 411237 411242 413248 415251 418252 426254 431258
      445265 458266 465266 471266 476268 482273 491280 500289
      503290 506290 511287 517276 520269 521264 522258 521253
      522249 520242 526242 524239 522236 523232 527228 530228
      532225 535220
 0.01 417071 417066 415064 411058 406053 401052 397052 393052
      390053 384058 381064 373061 365060 359062 358067 361068
      365070 367073 370079 375087 375089 378089 381097 383098
      387098 389095 394094 398089 404086 410082 415076 417071
 0.01 230981 232985 235988 244990 246991 247994 248999 250004
      253006 262020 262027 262034 262041 263045 268051 275056
      283059 291065 296067 298069 307069 311071 315075 321080
      329084 332082 332077 331072 330068 332067 337060 338056
      339053 343045 349039 350033 348028 338017 328013 316013
      302017 293012 285007 281000 279989 279983 277979 277973
      274968 262958 246949 241949 237953 233957 231963
 0.01 276805 277799 276793 275788 272783 270781 265781 261782
      258786 246797 241804 238812 237822 235832 233839 234852
      239856 247859 257859 262856 264854 267846 270837 273816
      276805
 0.25 531211 531205 531200 528191 517177 514174 510174 503175
      501178 503184 503189 501195 488198 481201 475206 469209
      462211 456215 450220 442220 443223 448225 452224 454225
      454229 450232 447233 442237 440241 440244 447251 455254
      472260 481265 488270 498282 502286 507286 513279 516272
      518267 519259 518247 516237 514227 513217 513214 514211
      517211 520213 525217 528216 531211
 0.25 519072 517071 514071 512072 508073 507074 505076 503078
      502083 503086 506087 508086 510084 512082 514079 516077
      518075 519072
 0.25 499113 499110 496110 491111 484112 479112 478109 475106
      469105 464104 459106 454108 451108 448106 442102 438102
      436100 433094 428089 426089 426091 430099 431102 430104
      424106 423112 426115 431113 437112 443116 445123 444129
      442132 439136 435143 434152 435156 437158 442163 445168
      449169 452167 457163 467159 471143 474137 478132 483130
      488126 494120 499113
 0.25 481224 479223 478222 476222 475222 476224 477224 479225
      481224 481224
 0.25 462688 460670 457662 454656 448647 444642 439638 435635
      430635 423638 421640 421644 421651 420658 418660 415661
      411663 409666 407671 406678 398688 396692 391695 386699
      383701 383706 386711 392712 398711 406708 417703 421703
      424705 425712 428730 433733 438731 445722 450717 453711
      457701 462688
 0.25 441752 438743 438738 437737 431735 427734 422735 418737
      416739 414742 416745 419747 419750 422751 422747 428752
      433756 436758 438757 440755 441752
 0.25 439777 439774 439772 438770 437771 436773 436775 435777
      435778 434779 434780 436780 437780 437779 439777 439777
 0.25 412071 411066 407064 403065 400067 394068 391069 389075
      392079 395082 399081 402077 406075 410074 412071
 0.25 402739 403736 401733 397731 395728 391726 387728 384731
      381735 381741 383747 387749 390750 394750 397749 400744
      402741 402739
 0.25 405806 406801 405797 403795 400793 395791 391792 386795
      381800 379805 380808 382810 389809 396808 401809 404808
      405806
 0.25 332042 331038 326036 317033 310033 301032 296031 292032
      290037 292041 300046 307050 312056 319061 325057 329049
      332042
 0.25 284020 283018 281016 278015 274013 272012 270013 270017
      272019 274021 276022 279024 281024 282022 284020
 0.25 270797 268793 264792 258792 253795 246802 242811 242816
      242823 244827 249830 257836 261833 263829 265822 262817
      260813 262809 268801 270797
 0.25 261976 261974 261972 261971 259970 257970 255972 254972
      253974 252976 252978 253980 254982 254984 255985 257986
      258984 259983 259982 259980 260978 261976 261976
 0.50 514272 517262 517252 513234 512228 509221 505216 499210
      493207 486206 480206 474210 470214 470217 472219 478220
      484224 485230 483231 481228 477226 474227 468228 462225
      466221 469218 467216 462215 459216 458220 459223 462225
      462228 450234 446238 444240 445244 448247 452249 459252
      471257 479260 485264 494274 498280 504284 507283 510280
      514272
 0.50 459689 459684 457680 454672 451665 447660 441657 435659
      431659 429661 425667 419671 413675 413678 414680 418688
      418691 421692 426696 429705 433711 438713 440714 444713
      451703 456697 459692 459689
 0.50 449151 448150 447149 445148 443149 442149 441149 441151
      441152 443154 444155 446155 448153 449151
 0.50 422742 421741 420742 419743 420743 421742 422742
 0.50 416696 416693 415693 413694 415696 416696
 0.50 264800 262798 257799 250802 246807 244815 245821 250824
      258828 261823 259819 257817 255813 256807 262803 264800
 1.00 514261 514249 511235 507225 504219 500215 497212 492211
      482212 479213 481217 486220 489225 489232 486236 482234
      478229 474229 470231 460234 456236 454239 455244 460248
      470253 481257 486261 489264 496273 499277 504280 506278
      506274 505268 514261
 1.00 452691 450682 446674 440671 436672 433674 427679 426683
      427686 429689 429692 432699 432702 434705 440707 445703
      450697 452691
 1.50 512260 512253 512247 509235 506226 502220 499216 496215
      492216 490222 491230 491234 489236 484238 481234 479231
      476230 467235 461238 462244 465247 474252 484257 490263
      497273 500275 502276 503273 503266 501260 496252 496247
      499248 502251 505256 508260 512260
 1.50 447692 448690 447687 446685 445684 445683 443681 441680
      440680 438682 438683 437685 437686 436688 437690 438692
      438694 439695 440695 442696 444696 445695 447693 447692
 2.00 511255 510246 509240 507232 504227 501221 497217 494217
      492219 492228 494235 497242 501246 504251 507256 509257
      511255
 2.00 501269 501265 499261 494251 492241 489238 485238 483239
      481237 479233 475231 471233 469236 467238 466242 469246
      472249 482253 486255 489259 495267 499271 501269
 3.00 507248 507242 505236 503233 501227 499224 496221 494223
      494228 496234 498237 500241 503245 506248 507248
 3.00 499266 496260 492253 489244 488241 485241 481240 479236
      477233 473234 472237 471243 473246 477248 484250 487252
      491255 494262 496265 499266
 4.00 482247 483245 481243 481241 480240 479239 479237 478236
      477234 476234 474234 474235 473237 473239 473241 473242
      474243 476244 478246 479247 481247 482247
 5.00 478241 478238 477237 476236 475237 475240 477240 478241
      478241

$$




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