Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 271838
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 28/0000 UTC THRU AUG 29/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

SOUTHWEST INTO THE CNTL/SRN PLAINS...

THE INTENSE S/WV WHICH BROUGHT SOME EARLY MORNING HEAVY RAINS TO
PARTS OF THE SW IS FCST TO TRACK SLOWLY EWD IN WEAKENING LARGER
SCALE WLY FLOW..TOWARD THE AZ/NM BORDER REGION BY SUN
EVENING..WITH MODELS GENL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING.
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ACRS SRN AZ WILL LIMIT SHWR ACTIVITY ACRS SW
AZ BUT DEEPER MSTR AVAILABILITY FARTHER E WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
LARGER DIURNAL TSTM COVERAGE ACRS THE SRN ROCKIES AND ESPECIALLY
THROUGH PARTS OF WRN TX INTO SW KS..WHERE THERE IS SOME MODEL
AGREEMENT PARTICULARLY IN THE HI RES GUIDANCE SAT NIGHT FOR POTNL
ORGANIZED CONVECTION LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ACRS THIS REGION.  THE
WRF ARW..NMM..AND NAM CONEST ARE SURPRISINGLY WELL CLUSTERED FOR
POTNL HEAVY RAINS ACRS SW KS OVERNIGHT BUT ARE OF SUCH SMALL SCALE
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER MECHANISM..THAT IT CALLS INTO QUESTION
THE PREDICTABILITY.  FOR MOST OF THIS AREA..A CONSERVATIVE APCH
WAS FOLLOWED WITH CONTINUITY AND A BLENDED MODEL APCH USED FOR
MANUAL QPF.


MID/UPR MS VALLEY..INTO THE ERN GT LAKES/OH VALLEY AND NE...

A WEAKENING S/WV WILL LIFT NEWD THRU THE ERN GT LAKES REGION EARLY
IN THE PD..ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING BAND OF SHWRS THRU THE ERN
GT LAKES/OH VALLEY INTO THE NE...AS STG UPR RIDGE HOLDS FIRM ALONG
THE MID ATLC REGION.  WHAT IS LEFT BEHIND WILL BE A RATHER
DIFFUSE/WEAKENING FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPING WWD BACK THROUGH THE MID
MS VALLEY THRU THE DAY ON SUN.  WHILE PLENTY OF MSTR WILL BE
AVAILABLE..IE PWS 1.50 TO 1.75`+...FORCING WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WEAKER WITH TIME...AND AS A RESULT..CONFIDENCE IN QPF
PLACEMENT IS LOW THOUGH OVERALL AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
GENLY LIGHT TO MDT.  GIVEN THE WEAKER FORCING..HAVE TRENDED IN
LATER PDS TOWARD AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APCH.  SIMILARLY S/WV MOVING
ACRS THE UPR MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE PD IS FCST TO LIFT INTO SCNTL
CANADA SAT NIGHT..BUT SUFFICIENT MID/UPR FORCING OVERCOMING MODEST
MSTR COULD LEAD TO SOME .25 TO .50 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS ACRS NRN
MN IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS OF HI RES GUIDANCE.


LOWER MS VALLEY, WESTERN GULF COAST, & FLORIDA...

AN AXIS OF ABOVE NORMAL PWS EXTENDING FROM THE FL PENINSULA
WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FROM PARTS OF FL WWD INTO THE WRN GULF COAST.  A WEAK
UPPER LOW WHICH HAD DVLPD OVER THE NW GULF IS FCST TO MEANDER ACRS
THE WRN GULF WITH THE LATEST UKMET AND CANADIAN JOINING THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS AND EC IN KEEPING THE 5H CENTER JUST OFF THE UPPER
TX COAST THRU SUN EVENING.  THE MAIN CHALLENGE HERE CONTINUES TO
BE WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL DVLP.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE NORTHERN CLOUD EDGE WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT SOME ISOLD HEAVIER RAIN BANDS INLAND ACRS PARTS OF THE TX
COAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY..BUT PROXIMITY OF THE UPR LOW ALONG
WITH OFFSHORE SFC FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE HEAVIER CONVERGENCE BANDS
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS.  FOR THE MOST PART..BLENDED
CONTINUITY WITH 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS ACRS THIS AREA.  GIVEN THE HI
PWS ACRS THE AREA..CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINS. FARTHER E...MUCH OF WHAT OCCURS ACRS SRN FL DEPENDS ON IF
WEAK SFC LOW NORTH OF CUBA GETS BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS AS IT MOVES ENEWD...SEE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NHC.  FOR
NOW..PLENTY OF UPR SHEAR EXISTS OVER THE SYSTEM AND THUS PCPN
PATRN OVER S FL SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY ENHANCED ELY
FLOW SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS.  FARTHER
N...SOME EROSION OF THE DRIER AIR ACRS NRN FL IS NOTED WITH SCT
E/W ENHANCED CU BANDS BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHWERS ALONG THE
NRN/CNTL COAST AS WELL.

CAROLINA...

AN AXIS OF ABOVE NORMAL PWS AROUND SOUTH SIDE OF MID ATLC UPR
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE HEALTHY ENVIRONMENT FOR SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TO
DVLP OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN CAROLINAS ESPECIALLY ON SUN.  MODELS
SHOWED DECENT AGREEMENT HERE SO DID NOT VARY TOO MUCH FROM
CONSENSUS.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 554037 555027 553017 548006 545000 540997 535997 531997
      529999 519004 511011 508014 507019 509022 514023 517022
      519021 529017 538022 546030 554037
 0.01 535215 537207 538198 538191 537185 533175 530169 528164
      521155 514150 510146 505145 501146 498151 502161 501164
      500165 496166 494169 495175 497182 500187 507194 509197
      511203 511211 507216 504215 499211 494210 491211 488215
      488221 494229 495235 494239 491238 487236 484237 482242
      479244 478238 474237 471241 470251 470262 470269 469277
      466293 466299 465308 468319 472321 475318 479317 482314
      491310 495309 499306 505300 511294 514288 516281 520268
      521255 525241 530227 535215
 0.01 523757 522743 521726 519712 518707 514702 505691 499685
      494678 487671 483667 480662 476659 471658 464655 462659
      459662 455671 450680 446690 440709 433727 426743 418759
      414768 409777 405784 398791 395795 391799 390801 388799
      389794 388795 380801 373810 369816 363823 359824 356821
      349825 347822 348818 349812 350808 352798 357790 359785
      359779 364769 363755 367746 370736 370730 368727 362727
      359731 356734 354737 351738 347734 344743 342753 339762
      330776 326782 317782 298777 294776 291773 284767 281765
      275762 268758 263755 258756 252756 246755 243753 240752
      236751 230752 226751 221751 219760 220766 219770 219781
      217788 215797 231834 235844 240855 244865 246869 250873
      253880 255884 256889 259897 259904 258909 263950 262957
      260962 257970 263977 266980 269979 275979 280981 289985
      295985 298983 303979 308977 321969 325967 328967 334973
      346985 346988 344991 338997 330001 325003 319005 315992
      308994 304998 305001 308003 311005 309007 294018 284032
      282034 279034 274034 268032 262031 258033 253032 249034
      244034 240036 238038 234043 234047 236052 237057 240066
      247071 255078 264083 271089 282092 290094 301096 319102
      322101 324099 328097 332099 339105 341114 344125 347134
      354137 358134 363135 367137 365133 364130 365127 368122
      370102 366093 363083 361079 363077 366077 370079 372084
      376093 377096 380094 380087 388089 386078 389079 392076
      401074 401070 403067 404061 406056 402055 396053 396046
      396039 394034 393034 393030 396026 397023 395016
 0.01 395016 394009 393004 394000 396995 398986 400978 400973
      398968 393962 395958 400957 408957 412952 418940 421922
      421912 419905 419898 422896 424893 427887 434876 443866
      448860 453858 456858 457862 463874 462881 459888 454887
      451886 448888 449895 450901 450906 448908 444915 441918
      441921 438935 441944 443947 442952 438959 433966 426978
      424994 426004 428006 431004 436986 440981 445978 457972
      461967 464967 467969 469969 473969 476966 476962 474959
      476957 478955 484952 494945 504937 517926 520921 522912
      523903 522895 515880 512872 510868 510864 512859 513853
      513849 516840 516831 516822 516810 517798 516785 519774
      523757
 0.01 491846 489841 487836 485831 483826 480822 477822 476827
      476835 478842 481844 485846 488848 491846
 0.01 455115 456106 457096 455090 454088 452090 449089 447091
      441093 438093 438095 439100 446104 449107 452114 452117
      454117 455115
 0.01 417856 417854 415852 413854 413856 415858 417856
 0.01 398113 394110 391112 386116 381119 378119 377121 375123
      375127 373132 376130 378126 382129 384127 386125 387120
      390116 396113 398113
 0.01 392036 393034 391032 389034 388036 387038 386040 385043
      387045 389043 390041 391038 392036
 0.01 374191 375189 375186 373184 372183 370183 368182 366182
      365182 363183 362184 364186 366187 367187 369188 371188
      372190 372191 374191 374191
 0.01 379900 379889 379884 377880 376875 373873 367867 363866
      359866 353868 348863 346860 346855 340852 341846 340839
      340834 343825 342814 341812 339814 336816 321817 315829
      302826 299824 298827 299835 304855 312892 315900 316908
      319928 320933 323936 326937 329938 335943 346943 351943
      355941 358940 361938 366934 371927 375922 377916 378911
      378905 379900
 0.01 363157 362157 361156 360156 361157 362157 363157
 0.01 365115 364112 362107 359103 358100 354095 351095 349099
      350103 352108 352111 355113 358115 361116 365115 365115
 0.01 363099 362096 360094 358096 360098 361100 363099
 0.25 532187 530183 528178 525176 521176 518175 517180 519185
      520189 523194 526197 529195 531189 532187
 0.25 514264 513257 514250 512242 509235 505231 502232 502238
      501243 504251 506258 503261 499261 494259 490260 487262
      485266 483272 482278 482281 485284 490289 495291 499292
      502291 506287 510281 511276 511272 511266 514264 514264
 0.25 511744 510736 508731 505725 502723 494725 490727 486731
      479737 475738 471741 469747 470755 470762 468769 466780
      465787 465797 465810 468824 472822 474817 479805 483796
      487791 491789 494793 497794 501791 504785 506773 508758
      511744
 0.25 497911 495906 492905 489906 485910 482916 479922 477927
      478932 483929 487926 492922 495916 497911
 0.25 472708 470701 467700 464703 461707 458712 455717 451723
      449729 449733 451736 456734 460731 465726 468721 470716
      472708
 0.25 441813 441807 438805 434805 429806 424810 421811 417809
      412814 409822 408825 409829 412829 417829 424827 430823
      437818 441813
 0.25 428772 429769 428768 427769 426770 425772 426774 428772
      428772
 0.25 406894 405891 402889 398888 395892 392899 390906 387915
      386921 388924 390924 394918 398912 402906 405899 406894
 0.25 379080 379079 379078 378076 378075 376075 375078 376078
      376080 377081 379081 379080
 0.25 378010 380003 378995 373987 367995 362005 357014 350022
      348024 348028 351029 354032 358034 362032 366028 372021
      378011 378010
 0.25 356763 356758 355754 352756 350760 347766 344772 340779
      337786 336789 337794 341793 344791 349785 352778 355772
      356763
 0.25 359848 359845 358843 357843 356843 355843 355846 356847
      357848 358848 359848
 0.25 352064 352057 348056 341055 338052 334049 328048 322046
      319048 305060 299059 295058 285053 280051 275050 270050
      263051 260054 261060 261066 264070 271076 276079 281080
      291080 303080 315081 321082 326084 336087 343081 352064
 0.25 302808 302804 301801 296797 291795 285794 279792 274789
      270784 265778 257768 253766 247764 239766 232769 227774
      224781 224788 225795 231805 234811 237819 238827 242835
      248844 251849 255853 260856 264862 266869 268880 270886
      270895 270903 271912 275926 276934 276945 276954 277963
      280967 286969 292970 297968 301962 304954 308940 304927
      300910 300902 304895 305889 305881 300870 295857 291852
      285846 267834 271833 278830 280828 280824 276817 266813
      261810 261807 268806 272803 275802 279803 285808 289812
      293813 297813 300812 302808
 0.50 502286 503281 503278 500275 498274 496272 492271 491272
      489275 489279 491281 494284 495286 498288 501288 502286
 0.50 501747 501744 500742 498742 497742 496745 496748 498750
      499752 498754 497755 498756 500756 500755 500752 500749
      501748 501747
 0.50 483771 483761 482758 478757 475764 474770 472778 471786
      471792 472795 474795 477790 479784 482777 483771
 0.50 434814 433813 431813 430813 428814 427815 426815 425816
      423817 422818 422819 421820 422820 423821 425822 427821
      429820 430819 432818 433816 433815 434814
 0.50 375003 375001 374999 373998 371998 369998 369999 367001
      366003 366005 365006 365007 365008 367010 369011 370010
      371010 372009 373008 374006 374005 375003
 0.50 350773 349771 348772 346775 345778 344781 343783 342786
      342789 344787 345785 347782 348779 349776 350773
 0.50 336080 336078 336077 335075 334074 333073 331074 329075
      328077 329078 329079 330080 331081 332082 334083 335082
      336081 336080
 0.50 333056 333053 332052 331052 329052 327053 326055 327057
      328059 330059 331058 332057 333056
 0.50 303943 304937 303933 299922 297915 295908 296901 299894
      300887 298881 294874 288867 285866 281867 277869 274873
      275885 276898 277907 280918 282928 282935 282941 280951
      280957 282962 286964 290964 294963 295958 299952 303943
 0.50 284070 285066 284064 283061 281059 278057 276056 272055
      268056 267058 266062 267066 269068 271071 273072 276073
      280072 282071 284070
 0.50 275824 274820 271818 264815 258811 255807 257803 264800
      265796 263792 259785 255777 250773 243769 237770 232772
      229775 227781 227787 228793 231800 237804 248815 254820
      261823 267825 272825 275824
 1.00 301941 301936 299933 296924 293918 292911 292902 294893
      294888 293884 288877 286875 282877 281880 280885 282894
      282902 284908 288915 289924 288935 287942 284949 283956
      287957 290955 299943 301941
 1.00 254799 253791 251786 248780 245776 241772 234774 231778
      231784 231792 235796 240798 246800 252801 254799
 1.50 296943 297939 297935 296931 294930 292933 291935 290939
      290941 289945 288947 288952 290952 292950 293947 295945
      296943
 1.50 247792 246790 246786 245783 244781 242778 240777 236777
      235778 233781 233784 233788 234790 236793 238794 242794
      245794 247792
 2.00 294943 295941 295939 295937 294935 293937 292939 292941
      292943 292945 294943 294943
 2.00 243789 243787 243785 243784 242783 241781 240780 238780
      237780 235782 235784 234786 235788 236790 238791 239791
      240791 242791 243789 243789
 3.00 239785 237785 237786 237787 239786 239785

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