Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 240900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
459 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 24/1200 UTC THRU MAY 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND EAST TO WESTERN
GULF COAST...

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
TEXAS...THE ARKLATEX...AND TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

THE LATEST SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT...HIGH-IMPACT MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAIN EVENT
CONTINUING TODAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO "RE-LOAD" WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THAT ROUNDS THE TROUGH BASE AND EJECTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ORIENTED IN A SSW-NNE FASHION EARLY THIS
MORNING IS ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...PER THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH/RIDGE ORIENTATION...AND AS SUCH HAS
EXHIBITED SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION EARLY THIS MORNING.
MOREOVER...THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
LARGE-SCALE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL BETWEEN THE
UPPER TROUGH/RIDGE AXES OVER A BROAD AREA STRETCHING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NNE INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.

THE NEXT IN WHAT HAS BEEN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE
TROUGH BASE...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE TX BIG BEND PER SATELLITE
WV LOOPS...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER AND INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD (12 MON).
DYNAMICAL FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF
THIS SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUES TO GET A BOOST EARLY TODAY
WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW (S-N
ORIENTED JET STREAK) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS
ALONG WITH THE ROBUST LLJ (40-50 KTS) AND ANOMALOUS PW VALUES OF
1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES (~2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) IS
MAINTAINING THE WIDESPREAD ORGANIZATION (MULTIPLE QUASI-LINEAR
SEGMENTS)...THOUGH ON AVERAGE THE RAINFALL RATES HAVE DECREASED A
BIT WITH THE LOWERING MUCAPE (ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CENTRAL
TX)...EVIDENCED BY THE WARMING CLOUD TOPS PER SATELLITE IR LOOPS.

OUTSIDE OF THE NEAR TERM (12Z AND BEYOND)...THE MODELS ARE ONCE
AGAIN STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS IN TERMS OF THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION/FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE QLCS. WPC DID UTILIZED THE
RGEM AND OTHER HIGH-RES GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE WRF-ARW) TO NUDGE
THE ACTIVITY A BIT MORE TO THE EAST DURING THE 12-00Z TIME
FRAME...GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM WITH MUCAPES CLIMBING BETWEEN 2000-3000+
J/KG INTO NORTHWEST LA AND SOUTHWEST AR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
RE-EVALUATE THE TIMING WITH SOME NEWER GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 06Z MODEL RUNS) AND MAKE ANY NECESSARY EDITS TO THE
FINAL DAY 1 QPF PACKAGE ISSUED AT 10Z.

FARTHER NORTH INTO MO...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING TO THE
NORTHEAST...THE DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...AND
AS A RESULT HAVE CUT DOWN ON THE AREAL-AVERAGE QPF A BIT FROM THE
PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST (WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 1-1.5" ON
AVERAGE INSTEAD OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES PER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST). THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRENDS IN THE BULK OF THE GLOBAL AND
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NEW (00Z) ECMWF. STILL A HEALTHY
AMOUNT OF WATER NONETHELESS FROM A BASIN-AVERAGE STANDPOINT...AND
CERTAINLY GIVEN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY (MUCAPES GENERALLY UNDER
1500 J/KG) ALONG WITH THE ANOMALOUS PW AND 850-700 MB MOISTURE
FLUX...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED PER THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...THE SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE INTO EASTERN KS AND MUCH OF MO.


...GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

A REGION OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL DRIFT EAST FROM UT INTO
WY WITH STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
 SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AGAIN IN
THIS ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS WITH 700 MB VERTICAL VELOCITY MAXIMA
ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD CIRCULATION LEADING TO A RAINFALL MAXIMA
IN WY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SD AND NE. THIS COINCIDES WITH A
MAX REGION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE.  ELSEWHERE...MAXIMA IN THE RANGES
OF /SOUTHERN ID/NORTHWEST WY/UT/CO COINCIDE WHERE ASCENT IS
AUGMENTED BY UPSLOPE FLOW.  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREAS DRIFTING
EAST OF THE 700 MB CIRCULATION CENTER SHOULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS IN EASTERN CO.  LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WHERE
CELLS MOVE SLOWLY...AND WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED LAST NIGHT IN
NORTHEAST CO.  MANUAL QPF USED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...WHICH
MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST.

DAYS 2/3...

...PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

ONE MORE SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON
MONDAY....RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS
FORCING MOVES INTO A HIGH CAPE REGION IN TEXAS...EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUMP ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPTABLE WATER NORTH...WITH VALUES AROUND
2 INCHES POSSIBLE TO GO ALONG WITH MOISTURE FLUX VALUES AS HIGH AS
5 SD ABOVE NORMAL. THUS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMED
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. INITIALLY THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE STORM LAYER MEAN WIND. ALSO GIVEN
THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM...MAY EVEN SEE THE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM BEGIN TO FORWARD PROPAGATE AS IT MOVES TOWARDS NORTHEAST
TEXAS. AS WE APPROACH SUNSET...DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE...WITH THE HIGHER VALUES FOCUSING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. THUS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT THE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO BACK-BUILD INTO THE LOW LEVEL JET AND GREATER
INSTABILITY...AND FOLLOW THE CORFIDI VECTORS EAST SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA.

AS NORMAL THERE IS A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE....WITH THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE FOCUSING HIGHER QPF FURTHER NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE
BETTER FORCING...AND THE HI RES NAM CONUS...4KM ARW AND 4KM
NMMB...ALL FURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH THE HIGHER QPF...CLOSER TO THE
BETTER INSTABILITY. FOR THE REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE...BELIEVE THE
HI RES SOLUTIONS MIGHT BE ONTO SOMETHING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT
DID NOT WANT TO MAKE TOO DRASTIC A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST...SO WPC
TRIED TO CUT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS...WHICH GIVES
THE HIGHEST QPF...2 TO 4 INCHES...FROM EAST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. IF THE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM DOES BEGIN TO PROPAGATE MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST...IT WOULD
LIKELY LIMIT MOISTURE INFLOW FURTHER NORTH ACROSS MISSOURI AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. SO WPC QPF DOES CUT AMOUNTS IN THESE NORTHERN
LOCATIONS AND SHIFTS THE MAX BULLSEYE SOUTH AS WELL. FUTURE
ADJUSTMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
HIGHEST QPF ENDS UP EVEN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. ADJUSTED THE MODERATE EXCESSIVE RISK BASED ON THESE NEW
THOUGHTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL
OCCUR...JUST SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY THE WHOLE SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. OVERALL EXPECTING A
DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION AS THE BETTER FORCING
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH. BUT WILL STILL HAVE A GOOD LOW LEVEL JET
FEEDING IN HIGH MOISTURE AIR INTO THE AREA. SO WHILE THE
CONVECTION MAY BE LESS ORGANIZED...STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME TRAINING GIVEN THAT THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE ALIGNED WITH AND NEARLY EQUAL IN MAGNITUDE TO
THE MEAN STORM LAYER WIND. LESS OF A SIGNAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT AN OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME...AND GO
WITH A GENERAL AREA OF 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY SOUTH INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WE EVENTUALLY NEED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK AREA AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONVERGE...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. WPC QPF WAS GENERALLY
BASED OF A MULTI MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD.

...NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPSTATE NY/NEW ENGLAND...

THE OTHER OTHER OF MODERATE RAINFALL IN THE DAY 2/3 PERIOD WILL
OCCUR FROM MINNESOTA EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR THIS
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WPC FAVORED A NON NAM BLEND
CONSISTING OF THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC/UKMET...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS RESULTS IN A
SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS ON DAY 2 ACROSS
MINNESOTA...AND A SOUTHWEST SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA ON DAY 3. THESE HAVE BOTH BEEN A PRETTY
CONSISTENT TREND OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE...ADDING SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE CHANGE.

HURLEY/CHENARD

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 539208 540197 538193 535192 529193 523189 517176 514169
      510165 499157 492154 486153 479152 475154 473156 472158
      471163 470173 471181 474188 477194 478197 477200 473201
      471205 468207 465206 463206 460207 461214 468215 471212
      475212 477211 481213 483217 488219 490221 493228 496236
      499240 507253 508256 511258 516259 522256 526250 529243
      532235 536220 539208
 0.01 512683 512681 511678 510679 508682 507685 509687 511687
      512686 512683
 0.01 506706 506704 506703 504702 504699 502699 501700 499700
      499701 499703 498706 498709 500711 502713 504712 505709
      506706 506706
 0.01 510763 510760 510763 510763
 0.01 502686 502684 502681 500679 500680 498682 498683 499685
      499688 501688 502687 502686
 0.01 505740 505738 505740 505741 505740
 0.01 480234 480231 478230 476232 476233 477235 479234 480234
 0.01 476707 475697 473692 472688 470685 469681 465675 461671
      459672 457675 460686 460691 459696 448704 449708 447712
      445714 441715 439718 441719 447719 447729 445732 450737
      455735 459732 460729 460724 462721 467720 470719 472718
      474715 476707
 0.01 484929 484909 483901 482893 482878 482864 480849 479845
      478836 474810 468789 463777 459768 454760 451757 447756
      440757 434763 430776 428788 428795 426801 424810 429836
      429842 428848 426853 423857 412871 407873 405875 402873
      397868 395867 390867 380868 374872 364875 345866 342865
      341863 340859 345853 344848 339847 336848 332850 324849
      320848 318842 320830 324831 325826 325822 324818 319810
      314804 311796 307788 303780 299776 296775 293775 291779
      292787 288791 285791 282789 280792 282796 284798 282800
      277800 272800 268798 273795 272783 270784 269788 266793
      265795 262794 258793 256794 253798 249797 243795 243785
      243780 241776 237775 232775 228779 227785 226791 226798
      230805 233810 234816 235822 237826 240830 243832 248834
      252835 255832 258832 259842 263848 266847 268846 270849
      274857 269863 270875 272880 275882 279885 280889 276901
      273905 271909 263927 259933 255942 251950 250951 250955
      252958 252968 252980 252984 254985 258988 260988 263985
      266982 268981 269984 272986 278985 282979 285978 286981
      287985 286988 282993 276001 275005 274010 274016 276020
      285024 290027 292026 301021 304014 306010 305005 305999
      304993 299986 305980 319975 324975 326978 329983 329990
      328999 330006 334009 341010 344011 348011 358008 366005
      372005 372012 371026 368030 364031 344061 341068 338078
      336082 336085 337091 339092 340095 342110 343116 345120
      350127 354130 358132 363133 365136 365143 362146 359150
      356149 352151 352155 355158 359160 363163 361165 359165
      357167 358172 359176 362175 365177 363180 359181 356183
      352181 352184 358186 365190 370192 376197 384204 387206
      392208 399209 399205 396202 395199 397197 403191 406186
      410184 417182 421181 424178 429172 434172 437175 440176
      441179 440186 438190 441191 450193 458186 460183 463178
      469155
 0.01 469155 471152 471146 473136 474124 476116 477105 477094
      477085 475082 474079 475075 476069 476059 479039 480027
      481017 480005 479997 481988 481977 480967 479957 483939
      483931 484929
 0.01 410204 411202 410201 409201 408201 408204 410204 410204
 0.01 407213 407210 406209 405210 404211 403212 402214 402216
      403217 404217 405215 406215 407213 407213
 0.01 407119 406118 404117 404116 403115 401116 400118 401119
      402120 404120 406120 407119
 0.01 394108 392103 390098 390095 390091 387092 384095 381099
      378101 375105 375109 379107 382108 383112 385113 389111
      393109 394108
 0.01 381174 381172 381171 379169 377170 375171 376173 377174
      378174 380175 381174
 0.01 255781 255779 253779 253781 254783 255781 255781
 0.01 238842 237840 237838 235837 233836 231838 231839 232840
      233842 233843 235844 236844 237842 238842
 0.25 527228 530218 527211 524205 522200 519193 516187 508179
      503176 498175 494184 491192 491199 500207 502214 505219
      510224 513229 515235 521239 524238 525235 527228
 0.25 470989 471982 471975 470965 469955 469947 471939 472935
      472929 470921 470911 471892 471881 470871 467836 463813
      459797 456788 452783 449782 443785 441791 440800 438818
      437834 436849 434858 431865 428873 426880 423885 418889
      408896 397901 392898 390894 380885 372885 365887 348890
      335893 327895 323895 320894 316890 315883 313877 308874
      302867 300865 297866 295869 295873 294881 292887 291907
      287921 284928 281934 276943 267950 261957 258963 257968
      258977 260979 263977 268971 276970 281971 287973 290974
      294974 297973 302973 308972 314969 319966 325964 333964
      335965 337968 339972 343976 351982 399976 405979 410983
      422987 427996 428003 429010 425019 423028 423039 422043
      420044 411043 407044 412031 412024 409021 397016 395014
      393017 392026 392035 389043 390048 392052 394055 393059
      391066 390070 391073 394079 396085 399091 403096 406103
      412103 415102 419105 423109 429111 431110 433106 435100
      436086 440081 444080 448081 452085 454093 457095 456087
      457078 457070 458063 462056 465049 467032 466023 468015
      469010 468006 468999 470989
 0.25 408156 408152 407149 408145 405144 398141 393142 388140
      386142 382141 381139 379142 382147 389149 394152 400155
      401157 404159 408156
 0.25 362998 362994 358991 354991 350993 346995 342997 339999
      341004 345004 349004 355003 358002 362998 362998
 0.25 295813 296811 295810 293809 291810 290812 290813 289814
      290816 290817 292817 294816 294815 295814 295813
 0.25 293012 293010 292008 291007 290006 289005 287004 286005
      285006 284008 283010 283012 284014 285016 287017 289016
      291015 292014 293012 293012
 0.50 515206 516200 515198 515194 513192 510190 507190 505191
      504194 504197 506200 507203 509206 511208 514208 515206
 0.50 467981 467970 466962 462949 462945 464938 465929 464921
      463916 463908 465895 466890 467881 467863 465842 464833
      462826 459812 457806 455801 452799 449798 447801 444815
      443827 442839 439856 436869 434876 433883 432888 429893
      420898 415901 411905 403910 396913 389916 385917 382916
      378905 376892 374890 371890 366892 346897 340898 334900
      326906 319907 314905 306900 303900 301902 300908 298913
      295917 286935 284939 280943 272949 264958 261963 260968
      261974 265972 268968 272966 277965 282966 288971 292972
      295970 301968 309964 321958 325957 332957 341962 343966
      346972 354978 356979 358978 363975 379967 387966 393968
      405969 411970 411978 414980 418975 422975 426977 433981
      448998 446007 442012 439016 437022 434027 431030 429036
      430043 429051 427056 425061 423066 424073 423079 426083
      430082 435077 441075 448076 450073 453059 454049 453043
      453035 454027 456016 457008 456001 456997 459996 462994
      466987 467981
 0.50 406030 405029 403029 402030 402032 402035 403035 404033
      405032 406030
 1.00 459861 459857 459852 459847 458842 457840 456837 454840
      453843 451845 450848 450853 450857 451862 452865 455866
      458864 459861
 1.00 452920 453915 452911 451908 450903 448901 446900 445901
      443906 445911 446913 448916 448920 450923 451923 452920
 1.00 449937 449932 445931 438932 434932 432930 431923 431917
      429914 426913 422916 419921 415936 412937 408937 403940
      400943 393944 388945 384941 375932 372926 372917 369911
      364908 360910 357915 352921 346922 338922 333924 321926
      310923 303921 299921 297923 292934 287944 283948 280954
      281958 283960 287965 291969 296967 314955 323945 329945
      333947 339951 346951 359951 359954 357957 351960 347963
      346965 347968 350969 354969 360965 364962 368960 394954
      400955 402957 402961 407962 412961 426957 431957 435961
      438967 442964 445961 448954 448943 449937
 1.00 443067 444060 443055 442050 439047 437045 436051 436054
      435059 432064 431068 431071 433073 436070 440068 443067
 1.00 424968 424966 423965 421966 420968 421969 423970 424968
 1.00 270962 271960 270958 268958 266959 266960 265962 264964
      263966 262968 262970 263971 264970 265970 266968 268966
      268965 269964 270962 270962
 1.50 434945 433944 431942 430942 428942 426942 425942 424943
      423945 424946 426946 428946 430946 431946 433946 434945
 1.50 398949 396948 395948 393948 391949 391950 393951 395951
      396950 398949
 1.50 366938 367935 366933 365927 363925 359927 353927 353932
      352938 350943 350946 352947 357945 361943 364941 366938
 1.50 345943 345936 344931 341928 337927 329930 321929 307939
      305938 304932 303928 299926 295929 294933 291941 287950
      286955 286960 291966 297964 305958 310953 321940 325939
      329939 336943 338946 342947 345943
 2.00 361936 361934 359933 357933 356934 355935 355936 354938
      354940 353941 353943 354944 355944 357943 359941 360938
      361938 361936
 2.00 342943 342941 342939 341936 341935 340934 339933 338934
      338936 339939 339941 340943 341944 342943
 2.00 320935 316935 312939 310944 307945 305943 301941 301936
      301930 298929 296931 293941 289952 288957 289962 293964
      297962 305957 310949 316940 320935
 3.00 304952 304949 303948 303947 301946 300947 299948 299949
      299952 299953 300954 301955 302954 303953 304952

24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 538213 537210 538207 539205 541203 544179 539170
      533163 523147 519138 516134 512134 508136 506133 500126
      497123 494117 491114 485113 480106 475099 471091 470086
      470078 473066 476057 480046 481031 482024 483017 485007
      489995 490989 492985 496975 497969 498962 499957 499950
      501946 501940 502933 503928 506914 512890 513882 514879
      517867 522844 524834 525829 525820 523786 522772 520758
      513731 507707 502697 498690 487675 475663 469657 463650
      457646 449640 437636 428638 417642 415646 413650 418659
      421664 423671 426684 429695 431701 433708 434720 429727
      429732 429739 428751 428757 427764 425774 416790 409796
      406799 404804 400813 394821 383832 370842 360846 359840
      359833 361823 361821 357818 341820 339815 337811 335808
      331809 329808 327803 323799 319797 295775 295780 296784
      296788 296790 294792 291794 288797 290801 291809 292813
      291817 286808 282808 279805 272799 264796 259793 255790
      250784 246775 242768 235766 227767 223769 221772 220776
      221779 222785 224789 225793 227798 232807 235816 236827
      236834 232837 231842 233845 262860 268864 268870 266873
      271896 271920 268930 264938 257956 254964 252970 253972
      253978 255982 257985 261988 269994 274001 280006 285012
      292018 299021 314028 319031 322030 325027 329025 334019
      340012 344003 348994 357979 359975 364974 366972 370972
      374968 376970 375973 374977 376982 383989 392993 388004
      385013
 0.01 385013 380024 380033 378037 376039 371041 368041 366040
      363040 364045 350062 351068 352070 351074 348079 346085
      348090 351091 352095 355109 355113 356114 360120 366128
      370133 372138 376151 377154 377157 374164 373168 375171
      376173 375175 371178 366180 361181 364184 373195 380202
      399216 406219 408223 403227 398229 402233 405235 409235
      413233 416227 418218 420212 423203 427201 432198 435193
      436185 437180 440178 444174 448174 454171 457170 460171
      466172 470178 468184 470191 471198 474205 478208 480216
      487226 490230 493235 505258 508262 512263 520269
 0.01 469641 467641 465642 467642 469641 469641
 0.01 342076 342072 337069 335066 334060 334055 330055 330062
      330066 333069 335073 336078 340078 342076
 0.01 239995 239993 238993 237991 235991 233991 231991 231993
      233993 235995 235996 237996 238996 239995
 0.01 228827 228825 228823 226821 224821 224823 223825 225827
      225829 227829 228827 228827
 0.25 516227 517214 518206 516198 514193 512186 511179 509172
      506168 502165 498164 495160 491156 485155 478145 476139
      471136 466134 462134 459134 458137 462140 461142 457142
      456145 456150 456154 458156 461152 466150 470153 475152
      478154 478158 482170 481180 483185 489195 493199 496204
      501214 503221 507225 511229 515229 516227
 0.25 502782 501773 499765 496758 491752 481718 478712 474705
      471700 466696 461692 456693 453695 450701 447707 441719
      439727 439736 439745 439755 439774 438792 438802 440810
      442821 445828 445837 445846 444854 444860 445863 449869
      452877 453892 451902 448909 445916 443925 435935 436946
      437955 438964 440969 447979 450985 452993 453004 455011
      458016 462016 464013 472003 475996 477988 481970 485954
      491940 493921 498905 501888 502879 503870 503847 504827
      504816 503806 502794 502782
 0.25 446121 447116 447113 445110 444108 440106 437107 436110
      436114 436117 438119 441122 442123 444123 446121
 0.25 435097 434096 434095 433093 431092 430092 429092 429094
      429095 431096 431097 432098 434098 435097
 0.25 419152 420149 419148 417149 418151 418152 419152
 0.25 427004 426997 427992 426989 419988 414991 410995 406000
      404006 403009 404014 409017 414018 418018 421018 423015
      425010 427004
 0.25 423956 424952 423947 419944 417941 416943 410946 405944
      403945 402949 402955 405959 410963 414967 418963 422959
      423956
 0.25 405887 405879 403871 401866 399864 396863 385863 379863
      373865 362869 357870 352869 346866 341866 335867 330869
      325871 318872 313871 308867 308861 305858 302858 298857
      296861 292872 290878 290885 289899 288907 289914 289922
      288928 281937 276947 272957 270961 268968 267974 270980
      278987 286993 291001 298008 304011 311013 322015 326013
      330009 332003 332999 332995 337986 340981 343974 345969
      348965 355956 367938 377934 386928 393919 398910 405887
 0.50 496883 495867 495850 495841 494833 491818 488802 484788
      475762 470750 464737 462733 459726 457718 453716 450721
      450729 449736 447741 445747 443755 444762 445771 446776
      445784 444791 446800 447814 451826 453832 454839 455848
      457857 458858 461858 463860 465864 466872 466881 465889
      463896 460908 458915 455920 451932 449938 446943 445949
      448954 457961 459965 461971 463978 464982 466983 469983
      471977 476967 481952 487925 491914 495899 496890 496883
 0.50 392895 388888 382882 371880 363880 354881 349882 345884
      340892 332895 324899 315901 309902 305904 302912 300922
      297931 292939 287945 278960 276970 277976 279980 283981
      286984 291991 295998 302004 318009 322008 323004 323997
      324992 326988 329984 335978 343963 352946 357940 364934
      371929 377923 382915 386909 387904 390901 392895
 1.00 474920 475910 474906 472905 470905 467908 465913 463920
      461927 458932 455937 455942 457942 460942 462940 466936
      469932 472927 474920
 1.00 366916 367912 366907 362903 356902 351904 346907 339907
      333909 328911 307922 305928 303934 300939 297945 292956
      292962 292968 299989 308997 312998 314992 317986 321982
      328974 334965 340954 354934 361927 366916
 1.50 353923 353919 350916 341914 335914 332917 325922 317925
      314926 310930 306937 303945 301952 299954 297958 296964
      299973 301983 302987 306987 310983 314982 320977 325971
      330964 334955 345941 353925 353923
 2.00 347928 346924 343921 340920 335920 329924 324928 318932
      314933 306945 301960 301965 304966 305969 303973 303978
      304981 312980 317977 321971 328956 336945 341940 345934
      347928
 3.00 329947 328942 325940 320941 317943 314947 312950 311956
      314960 318958 321956 325953 327949 329947
 3.00 316973 316972 315971 314969 312970 310971 308972 308973
      307975 308976 310976 312976 313975 314975 315973 316973

24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 541747 537738 533726 524701 517684 512674 508663 498643
      495637 493640 488642 484644 482646 480645 473638 465632
      463633 460631 457632 447636 442637 440642 431664 429668
      430674 431680 433682 438689 441693 445693 447693 449697
      448704 448710 445713 440716 435717 430718 428721 422727
      417736 413748 409755 402761 394768 391770 388775 385780
      381784 376790 371798 366800 363802 354800 352801 347802
      342803 337806 332806 329809 326810 326816 327820 325822
      322823 317825 311826 309828 304827 299826 294824 288820
      283819 278819 273816 268814 264812 262810 261812 258820
      257823 258828 262836 268841 273841 277840 281838 284837
      291837 286845 283848 278848 271857 266864 266870 265876
      265884 267891 269896 272900 273903 272907 270911 268918
      266927 266931 268934 269938 268943 264951 261962 261967
      259972 257978 262978 266980 272981 276982 281983 287977
      297968 301965 304967 312962 329950 334951 333954 328960
      326964 327968 333975 337976 339980 342989 342995 345998
      354004 354011 358014 364018 362040 361047 363051 363056
      367061 370064 372071 375084 374089 373093 372104 374114
      374127 376136 376144 375151 378160 380163 379167 376172
      373175 368183 368189 372192 379197 382200 387201 388198
      387191 385186 384183 385180 392173 397174 402175 402185
      405189 409192 407196 406203 405210 408210 413208 415205
      417203 417195 418187 420180 423177 426175 432169 434156
      442160 446164 447169 447172 450174 450179 452183 455182
      468176 471186 474190 474194 472197 460204 459207 461212
      464216 468217 472216 477216 488220 493222 495227 496232
      499237 508255 512260 514265 516270 518264 524241 530214
      535191 537185 537178 538170 538163 538156 535150 531143
      512134 506127 502119
 0.01 502119 477081 471071 464065 464059 466056 469056 474054
      480055 484053 488050 492046 490041 490034 489027 486022
      485017 479017 475016 473018 462017 451012 447012 443009
      436008 432002 429992 428989 428986 430980 433966 434957
      437952 442942 446932 454925 458921 462918 469910 474902
      478897 482892 484888 488884 493873 497863 501858 505859
      507859 508855 509846 511841 512834 513827 514821 519808
      536762 539753 541747
 0.01 532024 533005 533989 529983 525981 521979 517975 504960
      501957 496956 494961 494965 492967 492982 495998 501024
      502029 506032 509036 512040 514048 516054 516061 517064
      517069 519083 521080 523073 524066 526060 527052 528044
      532024
 0.01 411005 408991 406988 401984 394979 391977 389979 386983
      380991 373997 369010 370014 373014 377017 382019 386018
      392018 397016 406012 411005
 0.01 296014 297006 293004 288001 286003 282003 275003 268001
      263998 259994 253992 249993 245996 243002 250010 258017
      270021 283023 290023 294021 296014
 0.01 268798 266796 262794 256792 247793 243794 241797 242807
      243817 245820 248822 252816 252811 250808 251805 254803
      261803 266803 267800 268798
 0.25 514704 514696 511690 505680 500676 498680 496686 494698
      490706 484715 478722 471729 464738 460747 456757 452766
      446775 441781 435787 427794 424795 421795 418796 414805
      410812 401813 391815 387817 383820 375826 367831 363831
      361825 359821 356819 351819 347821 340826 333833 323837
      316841 297851 292857 288866 286874 284885 284900 284914
      286928 286935 290939 297943 301944 307944 317930 326926
      337924 349923 361922 370923 380925 389924 393925 395931
      399939 407944 417946 422944 425939 428931 431920 435911
      441904 448897 454891 460883 469876 475869 480862 483850
      485837 488827 495820 499793 501783 503770 508750 511736
      513723 513711 514704
 0.25 508169 509162 508156 508150 506146 502139 496134 493132
      490127 487120 483113 479104 474096 469092 464090 460091
      453094 449094 445095 440100 434103 425105 412110 399119
      397124 396131 397136 401137 409138 414138 415141 414144
      415151 416154 420154 421145 422142 423136 425132 428128
      434126 437126 440128 446135 448139 451142 454144 456148
      459151 462149 468147 476150 482153 489159 494166 497170
      501172 506172 508169
 0.25 368983 369976 366972 362970 359969 357969 352967 350971
      350976 352981 354985 357988 362989 366987 368983
 0.50 484783 483775 481768 479762 476757 472759 469765 467777
      461788 456798 450809 444819 438828 435833 433838 430852
      429859 429867 430869 432869 436865 440861 443856 453835
      464814 469804 472800 476795 482790 484783
 0.50 435890 431887 428883 426877 424875 422877 418879 413881
      408883 405887 406891 404894 401897 398902 398906 399910
      400916 403922 408924 414922 416918 419912 423902 424896
      427891 431893 435890
 0.50 390883 391880 390876 387871 385868 383862 381859 377857
      374857 375853 371842 368842 366847 362849 356848 353845
      351839 351834 350829 345828 342830 336839 330844 323851
      317858 310863 303867 299867 295871 293881 292884 293890
      294896 291900 289905 289912 292921 296929 299934 303936
      307934 310930 315922 315913 316907 319904 325903 330905
      331911 333913 340913 344912 353908 362903 367897 371895
      373893 373890 371885 371882 368881 366878 365873 367869
      370867 374867 377870 379874 379880 380885 384887 388886
      390883
 1.00 347877 347871 345866 342867 337868 334870 329872 327876
      327883 329888 334888 340887 343885 346882 347877

$$




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