Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 030609
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
209 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 03/1200 UTC THRU SEP 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE DEEP FRONTAL ZONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS
EASTWARD...WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM/GFS PREFERRED OVER THE
MORE EASTWARD 12Z ECMWF FOR QPF OVER WESTERN MONTANA DUE TO
TRENDS...GENERATING MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE BASIN-AVERAGE VALUES.

GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

AREAS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS ACCOMPANYING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL FOCUS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH 12Z FRI.  THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE QPF INCLUDE
THE INTENSITY AND DEPTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CURRENT
INDICATIONS AND MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY RULING OUT THE STRONGEST
AND MORE NORTHWARD 12Z ECMWF ACROSS MICHIGAN....AND SECONDLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT NEAR OR POSSIBLY NORTH OF
THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OH VALLEY.  THE NAM AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE
QPF AMOUNTS AND LOCATION AND THUS WERE USED AS A GUIDE...WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

NORTHEAST...

THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL FOCUS MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z FRI WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS EXPECTED.  FOCUSED A BIT MORE ON THE LIGHTER
NAM AND 12Z ECMWF VERSUS THE HEAVIER GFS GIVEN THEIR SUPPORT FROM
OTHER MODELS.

GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...

THE NAM AND GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND THE RESULTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE
GULF IMPACTING LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST.  THE
FINAL VALUES ACROSS LOUISIANA AND TEXAS REFLECT A SLIGHT INCREASE
FROM THE PREVIOUS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.

CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALLOWING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION
WHILE A NARROW RIBBON OF ASCENT AND MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE LINGER
WITHIN THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.  USED A COMBINATION OF
THE NAM/GFS/HI-RES SOLUTIONS TO DERIVE THE QPF WHICH PRESERVED
CONTINUITY.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

JAMES

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 555966 556952 553941 550933 547930 545930 538935 532941
      527946 520941 516942 512947 506952 502957 497970 490984
      483000 478017 476023 474028 469033 463040 462042 463045
      465046 465050 463055 458071 463075 465077 467077 470076
      471078 470081 467084 463084 459089 452094 445091 442091
      439093 431096 429099 430102 433111 436119 439118 440122
      440127 439132 437134 433139 429146 426150 424151 414160
      413169 414172 418170 423167 425170 423171 421173 417180
      414191 412201 411207 415210 424203 429205 434201 441188
      444181 449177 453178 456176 458172 460167 462165 467162
      472161 475159 477157 479159 481163 483165 483172 486180
      488190 489195 487199 477206 468210 458216 442216 441220
      443223 444226 448227 452227 454229 452231 445234 440238
      439244 438247 436247 416256 405265 401269 399272 398276
      397281 399284 402292 408297 412299 415298 423296 429293
      442286 451280 463274 472269 475267 478267 481266 484268
      489274 492282 497289 503291 509286 513279 515275 516271
      521266 526250 528237 528231 530226 534223 537215 540206
      541195 541184 540172 536163 534156 532130 531126 526125
      522124 518122 515118 513115 514111 520104 522097 526078
      525070 522067 518066 516069 512078 509080 508076 508070
      509066 510054 511050 512043 518019 523006 531997 540988
      545982 549976 555966
 0.01 509084 510081 508078 507081 507084 508086 509084
 0.01 468013 465006 461005 458003 453001 450000 439999 431999
      429001 425001 418003 413007 408012 402018 393033 388038
      382042 377045 371046 367049 362049 355046 351044 346043
      335042 329044 321045 315045 314050 316052 323058 325060
      324063 318069 316071 313070 310068 303065 293064 286066
      279065 247052 243051 240052 233056 230062 230066 231069
      243078 248085 254091 263101 268105 275107 282111 287116
      294122 297124 302125 310126 316124 330122 333124 335128
      336132 340133 355127 361125 365121 371115 373107 386100
      389098 395100 396099 397092 400090 401085 404080 411078
      417074 421067 422062 422059 425058 428057 429051 431040
      433036 436034 442029 452025 461018 468013
 0.01 464861 464854 463849 461841 459836 455827 455820 453816
      449807 446804 443802 438801 432801 431798 432795 435790
      440783 444776 448760 450741 451718 452714 451706 449701
      446697 442695 438695 435693 432689 430687 425685 422682
      418683 411692 406699 399715 395724 392731 390734 390738
      393743 398749 399753 402756 405758 409756 414747 415754
      414760 412767 411771 409773 407775 404773 403769 399765
      388767 384765 379766 354752 348747 345744 342742 338737
      332732 328725 322718 315714 306715 302719 300722 299728
      296731 289737 288742 287748 286763 286768 284772 280776
      263783 260790 258794 253795 248796 246800 246805 248810
      250814 253816 259820 267822 274826 281833 284838 286844
      287849 286855 282862 277868 273872 268876 265881 258897
      258902 257907 257914 258918 260922 263925 272925 275924
      279925 282928 285931 287936 285941 281951 277958 274962
      272964 263967 262971 264974 268979 274981 283981 288979
      294973 299963 303954 305947 309938 311933 311926 310920
      309915 304906 302900 301889 300878 304872 307870 310867
      312862 312857 314839 310820 315820 319820 321822 321825
      322831 321837 321843 323849 325853 334870 343880 348886
      355886 360879 363872 357865 351861 348860 346855 348850
      351846 364836 369828 374824 377825 378829 379839 382841
      385846 388856 392863 399876 407890 415904 420912 426919
      438929 448931 453930 457928 459923 459916 455906 433885
      432875 432869 435867 442869 446870 449869 453868 454870
      457872 460871 463866 464861
 0.01 454083 454081 453078 450075 448073 447070 445070 441069
      441072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449083 451085 452085
      454083
 0.01 436165 436163 435160 434158 432159 430161 428163 426165
      424167 425170 427169 429168 431168 432166 433166 434166
      436165
 0.01 411108 410098 408093 402099 398104 391106 385110 381115
      380121 381124 385125 388123 392119 398115 405112 408111
      410108 411108
 0.01 395780 391776 387775 382775 378773 375778 372781 365785
      350795 347798 344802 340808 336817 333826 331831 333838
      339834 346827 351822 357813 361807 370793 373788 377785
      383780 395780
 0.01 264000 264994 260992 255988 253984 252978 250976 241972
      237973 233977 232989 232997 233001 236007 239009 249012
      254011 257008 262005 264001 264000
 0.25 534187 534176 533168 529151 527143 523137 511132 507132
      504135 502139 501149 502158 497172 497176 498180 504183
      508184 511182 515179 518179 521181 525187 527189 531190
      534187
 0.25 533971 533965 530963 525963 522965 517970 513977 510985
      507993 507002 509005 513005 518000 522994 526987 530979
      533972 533971
 0.25 499266 499264 498263 497262 496262 496265 497267 498267
      499266
 0.25 505234 504226 503220 502217 499214 497210 495210 491212
      487210 483214 482216 483219 485220 491223 494229 496234
      500236 502236 505234
 0.25 498115 499108 499100 497098 497095 498089 495087 491093
      480103 466107 463109 460116 456121 452129 448136 448141
      451141 457145 460154 462156 465155 475142 483140 489138
      490132 492126 496120 498115
 0.25 482244 482239 481237 480234 478230 474231 473233 471236
      471241 473244 474245 476245 479246 482244
 0.25 457854 457848 456842 451836 443827 440823 439819 435817
      430817 422819 416821 409822 404821 401824 399826 398830
      395837 394847 397856 401862 406866 409873 414881 416886
      419896 427910 433914 436915 439914 440909 439905 434898
      426888 422881 419879 417875 412859 410849 411844 414840
      420841 426840 433843 439848 444850 443853 441856 442861
      445861 448855 454856 457854
 0.25 442708 441706 438706 433709 430709 428708 425706 422707
      420713 419717 421718 424723 430725 435725 438721 441714
      442708
 0.25 440750 440748 440745 439743 437741 435741 434742 433744
      432747 432749 432752 433754 433756 435757 437757 439755
      440753 440751 440750
 0.25 428018 427014 423012 418012 415013 411016 409019 407024
      407031 410032 414030 418028 421026 425023 427020 428018
 0.25 410061 409057 407056 402054 391054 385063 382065 379064
      373063 370063 368065 368072 368081 367088 366092 369094
      373091 380086 384083 390083 394080 397076 402067 410061
 0.25 346116 346108 343103 344098 342091 337082 335080 332079
      327081 324086 319087 315087 313089 309092 304104 306110
      311113 317115 322114 328112 333115 338118 343117 346116
 0.25 320797 319790 317783 314772 313758 312746 309741 306741
      304743 301751 294771 283788 281793 277797 268801 259807
      258811 260815 264817 270816 279813 284813 289815 295822
      300821 304817 306814 310811 315809 318805 320797
 0.25 309085 308081 305078 300076 294077 290077 285077 281078
      281083 284085 290086 294088 299089 304090 307090 308087
      309085
 0.25 301937 302924 301914 297903 293895 287889 284889 281892
      281898 282904 284912 288921 291931 294940 298942 300939
      301937
 0.25 289962 290960 289958 288957 287957 285957 284958 283959
      282960 281962 281964 281966 281968 283968 285968 286966
      287966 288964 288963 289962
 0.50 532178 531167 528160 525151 521144 515141 511141 508142
      507148 507152 512158 516164 522170 525177 529180 532178
 0.50 522983 522981 522978 521978 520979 518981 517983 515986
      515987 514988 514991 515993 516992 517991 518990 519989
      520987 520986 521984 522983
 0.50 486126 485123 482122 481117 479116 476116 474117 472118
      470120 469125 469128 471130 474131 477132 479132 483131
      485128 486126
 0.50 455845 454842 452840 450839 449838 448838 447839 445841
      446843 447845 449845 450845 451846 453847 454847 455845
 0.50 436835 436833 434830 433828 431827 429826 427827 426829
      426830 424831 423832 422833 421834 423836 424835 426835
      428835 430835 430836 431836 433836 435836 436835
 0.50 433907 433904 431902 429900 428900 427899 427900 427901
      428902 429904 429905 431907 433907 433907
 0.50 392073 391070 391069 390070 390073 392073 392073
 0.50 380078 381076 381074 380071 378069 376068 375067 373068
      373069 373071 373073 373075 373077 374079 374080 375082
      377082 379080 380078
 0.50 339095 339093 338092 338091 337090 335090 334090 334093
      335094 335095 336096 338097 339095
 0.50 319106 320104 320102 320099 320098 320097 319095 318094
      316095 314096 312097 311098 310100 310102 310104 310105
      310107 311108 313108 315108 316107 317107 319106 319106
 0.50 314802 315794 313788 311782 310775 308769 305765 302767
      299770 295780 291789 290797 288800 285803 289804 294807
      298807 302804 307803 311805 314802 314802
 0.50 299924 299916 298910 295903 293899 291897 287897 285898
      285902 286908 288915 290920 292927 295933 298931 299924
 0.50 281804 279803 276802 272803 270804 267806 265807 264809
      264813 266814 270814 273812 275811 277809 279807 281804
 1.00 522157 522155 522154 520153 519153 517153 519155 520157
      522157 522157
 1.00 296920 296918 297916 296914 295912 294910 294908 293906
      292904 291902 289902 289904 289906 290907 290908 291910
      291912 292913 292914 292916 293918 294919 295920 295921
      296920

$$





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