Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 180603
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
102 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 18/1200 UTC THRU DEC 19/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...

...NORTHEAST...

DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM OFF THE MAINE COAST WILL GIVE WAY TO
DVLPG TRIPLE POINT LOW THUR EVENING WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
IN RESPONSE TO SW/V ENERGY PIVOTING EWD AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF
ASSOCD UPR LOW.  AS A RESULT...EXPECT BEST PD OF WARM CONVEYOR
BELT PCPN..TO OCCUR FIRST HALF OF THE PD WITH MAINLY .10 TO .25
INCH AMOUNTS IMPACTING NRN MAINE AND NRN PORTIONS OF VT/NH.
MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT HERE WITH EVOLUTION OF LOW AND ARE
REASONABLY CLOSE WITH QPF AMOUNTS WHERE.  GIVEN DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...MANUAL AMOUNTS GENLY
FOLLOWED CONTINUITY AND ENSEMBLE BLEND.  SEE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON
WINTER PCPN.


...WEST COAST...

SOME BRIEF RIDGING AT THE START OF THE PD ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL RAPIDLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING WAA AND ONSHORE FLOW AS NEXT
UPSTREAM SYSTEM RAPIDLY APCHS THE CNTL/NRN PAC COAST REGION LATE
THURS/THURS NIGHT.  RETURN MSTR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NARROW BEING SO CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF CURRENT SYSTEM BUT
SUFFICIENT HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH 40 TO 50 KT SWLY 85H FLOW
SHOULD SUPPORT A PD OF MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FROM THE NRN
COASTS OF CA NWD INTO THE OLYMPICS/NRN WA CASCADES.   THE 00Z NAM
APPEARED TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A DRY OUTLIER WITH GENL CONSENSUS OF
OTHER GLOBAL AND HI RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTING A WIDER SWATH OF .50
TO 1 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS ACRS THIS REGION..WHICH APPEARED
REASONABLY.


...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...

WARM FRONTAL BNDRY SLOWLY RETURN NWD ACRS THE WRN GULF OF MEX IS
EXPECTED TO EASE INTO COASTAL AREAS OF THE CNTL/UPR TX COAST/SRN
LA LATER THUR/THUR NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY PROVIDE DECENT FOCUS FOR
INCREASING CONVECTIVE RAIN THREAT AS S/WV ENERGY MOVES EWD FROM
THE SRN ROCKIES/NRN MEX REGION.  PWS ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO OVER
1.5 INCHES WITH 85H FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KTS OR SO OUT OF
THE SOUTH THUR NIGHT.  WHILE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A RAPID
INCREASE IN PCPN ACRS SE TX INTO LA THUR NIGHT..THERE STILL
REMAINS MODEST SPREAD IN WHERE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL TEND TO FOCUS.
 THE 00Z GFS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN ERN OUTLIER AND MAY BE SUFFERING
FROM SOME GRID SCALE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  THE PARALLEL VERSION IS NOT
AS FAR EAST..BUT STILL IS EAST OF GENL MODEL CONSENSUS.  MOST OF
THE 00Z HI RES GUIDANCE KEEPS HEAVIER RAINS SOUTH OF THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE AND CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...BUT HAS LACKED
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.  MANUAL GUIDANCE THEREFORE LEANED
HEAVILY TOWARD A BLEND OF CONTINUITY..IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEAN..AND SOME OF THE 00Z HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE
FAVORING 1 TO 2 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS FROM S SCNTL TX INTO
SW/CNTL LA.

SULLIVAN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 19/12Z
 0.01 516656 511679 507688 502695 490712 484718 480722 475723
      473726 469727 460730 457734 456739 455744 455749 440763
      437767 435771 433780 431790 427794 424798 417815 416821
      413824 409815 408802 405796 402795 401830 402842 403855
      404868 404876 402880 403887 404894 405900 408905 414912
      416920 417926 418932 419937 420945 421951 420956 417970
      412975 405977 392970 389966 386964 381957 378954 375954
      372959 372967 372981 375992 376999 375000 374007 372011
      370014 368013 365002 362998 357995 353992 350991 337971
      332967 328965 326962 328958 332951 336949 339951 345951
      346948 345945 345942 348938 356934 364932 369931 371929
      371926 371913 372905 372898 365889 363885 360881 354890
      349898 347907 343925 339932 334937 327943 325956 324966
      324979 326990 326001 330011 336019 341021 345021 350022
      350026 350032 348036 345044 342055 343061 343067 341071
      343075 343080 343087 343094 343096 342099 343102 346103
      346107 347110 349112 352114 356115 362123 366126 367132
      361132 357130 355129 352130 350128 341116 332113 327122
      324130 322134 319137 315138 309137 305134 303131 298128
      299124 300119 301112 297105 291099 287092 286088 288083
      305076 314073 311070 308067 305063 304059 302055 303049
      308042 310039 310034 308028 306026 296025 289021 281016
      276013 271014 266013 262011 255007 245004 242002 238998
      236994 237992 240992 244990 246990 254992 261983 261982
      258981 253980 251975 254973 270966 274965 277963 282954
      285946 286940 287936 290926 294918 300909 304901 308893
      311890 314887 322883 331883 333884 336883 339880 345875
      348868 351859 355854 358847 370846
 0.01 370846 375853 376857 379859 381857 386853 388849 388847
      387836 389831 388826 391823 391819 394810 391806 386806
      384809 381807 382799 388795 393793 401790 415783 420782
      423779 427772 426768 423766 422762 421756 420744 421742
      425743 432743 436742 438738 437736 435734 432733 425732
      436722 438717 435714 427713 424712 421709 418702 416699
      415693 414687 415682 418676 419673 419670 420668 423663
      425661 430655 441644 448635 453626
 0.01 524258 524247 521239 514222 510216 508208 508202 509197
      513198 515201 518204 521204 524205 528207 531209 533206
      529199 527197 526192 522186 514173 503160 500159 498159
      497155 494147 491139 487133 481129 473128 471130 471134
      472137 470140 474142 480142 482143 482146 479148 474148
      469144 465143 460143 455147 452149 448149 444148 442145
      437141 434144 433148 434155 438161 444165 441176 440179
      438186 438195 441198 442201 441205 439208 434207 426205
      422205 420206 418210 415211 409209 402211 397215 393218
      389219 383221 379220 376219 372217 369219 365225 366230
      369239 370247 366258 364269 363277 367283 375288 380294
      388297 394296 398295 401296 407301 411303 414302 421301
      428301 433300 441299 448299 452298 457299 463301 470305
      478308 484308 490307 501306 508300
 0.01 479172 477170 474169 470170 466165 464162 461161 458160
      456162 455167 456169 462172 465176 463183 465185 467184
      471180 476177 479172
 0.01 455115 453111 453107 454103 453098 450095 446097 440097
      434095 432096 431097 432100 431104 429105 425107 424108
      425111 424114 419114 417116 413115 409116 409107 401111
      392113 387116 381115 379117 385118 389121 393121 397120
      400120 404123 406120 408117 411120 419118 423121 424127
      424130 426129 429125 432121 434120 437120 443121 448121
      453118 455115
 0.01 443822 441820 440817 439815 437813 433811 431811 430812
      428814 430817 430819 432821 436823 437825 439827 441827
      441825 443822
 0.01 435871 433866 430864 428860 426857 422853 420851 418849
      420853 420857 419860 419865 421868 426868 429867 431869
      435871 435871
 0.01 410068 406063 406058 404055 402053 398052 395050 394046
      396042 395039 389038 387043 384044 380043 378041 370041
      367041 364044 361050 361054 363056 379056 381058 379061
      373062 368061 365063 361064 357067 357069 362072 366076
      368079 368083 366085 362085 356080 354082 357089 359097
      363103 364105 367106 368104 367101 362096 361093 364092
      365094 370093 375094 377096 377098 377101 379099 380095
      382090 387088 394090 401077 403073 404071 406072 410068
 0.01 378192 376189 375188 373186 370185 366184 362184 360185
      358185 358188 362188 365189 369190 372191 376192 378192
 0.01 339170 337169 335169 334168 332168 330168 328167 326167
      326170 328171 329172 329173 331173 333172 335172 335171
      337170 339170 339170
 0.25 487614 493618 496626 501650 501657 500662 497668 488683
      484688 480690 476690 470687 466682 462673 458667 455666
      453661 453655 454651 457644 460641 463639 466637 469633
      473627 481616
 0.25 519263 520256 518251 514240 511231 506221 501214 493209
      489205 485204 478207 470210 462212 447216 441216 438217
      429218 416227 412219 408218 405222 399228 396229 390228
      386229 383233 384244 384255 385261 388264 426269 429270
      430275 432280 434283 436283 444280 448279 453280 458283
      462286 466290 470292 479296 488297 497297 501297 506295
      510289 515280 519263
 0.25 492238 492237 491235 491234 491232 490229 489227 488226
      487226 486225 484224 483224 482225 481226 482229 483232
      483233 484234 486235 488236 489236 489237 491237 492238
      492238
 0.25 325922 325913 323907 320904 315905 310909 307913 301922
      297932 293943 288954 283963 276971 273976 272982 271988
      272994 271999 275999 280999 286001 296006 300006 305003
      308999 311994 315982 317969 320941 321934 323929 325922
 0.50 515259 514252 513247 509236 500218 494217 490214 485212
      482213 480216 481219 485221 490223 492227 493234 495239
      496242 495244 491240 488238 484238 480231 463230 461228
      459229 454231 447233 439234 439227 436223 433222 429224
      426230 422231 418231 413229 410225 406226 400230 391234
      390239 391244 394249 398251 401254 403256 406256 416258
      427259 437260 454255 458255 463257 472263 477271 483279
      486284 489288 493290 498292 501292 505289 507283 509278
      512263 515259
 0.50 496652 495645 493640 491634 489629 486627 482627 478635
      475639 471643 467650 466653 467657 470661 475669 480675
      484675 486671 488667 491664 495660 496655 496652
 0.50 449222 448221 447220 445219 443219 442219 441219 440222
      441224 442225 444224 446224 447224 448222 449222
 0.50 317939 319927 319921 317915 314914 310916 305922 298937
      292952 288959 285967 278983 279987 281990 288995 295995
      301992 307986 311979 314969 315960 317939 317939
 1.00 502283 501268 498257 493247 489242 485243 481240 478236
      476233 474234 472239 474243 478246 483250 485253 488259
      489265 493277 495281 501284 502283
 1.00 502238 501235 500233 499232 499229 497227 496229 497231
      497234 498235 498237 499238 501239 502238
 1.00 432244 430241 428240 424238 420235 414234 408234 404238
      403242 404243 410241 413241 417244 421246 427245 432244
 1.00 312943 313934 312926 311924 309924 305928 300939 295949
      290960 288970 284976 283979 284983 288986 295985 300983
      304979 307975 309969 311954 312943
 1.50 307956 308945 308940 307935 305935 303937 299944 296952
      294960 292968 290977 293979 295979 301973 304966 306958
      307956

$$




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