Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 061858
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 07/0000 UTC THRU JUL 08/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...MID MS VALLEY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS PERIOD. STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
VICINITY OF THE SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM KS SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE..AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET INTO THIS BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT..AND THE MODEL FORECAST
OF A WEAK S/WV MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE THE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
POOLING OF PWS TO 2-2.25 INCHES ALONG WITH SHORT TERM CELL
TRAINING..SUGGESTS HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS..WITH
FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASING TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  AREAL AVERAGE 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEASTERN KS INTO WESTERN OK AND THE TX
PANHANDLE..WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES EXPECTED.
MANUAL QPF BLENDED THE 12Z CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM/UKMET/GFS
AMOUNTS.  THIS LED TO A WEST SHIFT IN THE QPF IN THE TX PANHANDLE
VS CONTINUITY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE.

...WESTERN STATES...

ALTHOUGH SOME LOWERING OF THE HEIGHTS AND FLATTENING OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN RIDGE OCCURS THIS PERIOD..SOME OF THE
SAME FEATURES WILL STILL BE IN PLAY..INCLUDING WEAK SHORTWAVES
RIDING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND ALSO TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE WHICH HAS SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES.  ENHANCED
MOISTURE IS ALSO STREAMING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST
INTO NORTHERN CA/ADJACENT NORTHERN NV. THESE PARAMETERS..ALONG
WITH HEATING AND BANDS OF 700 MB CONVERGENCE..SHOULD SUPPORT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED CONVECTION THRU MUCH OF THE WESTERN
STATES..WITH THE ACTIVITY THRU PARTS OF CO AND NM ADDITIONALLY
ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.    MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
AMOUNTS EXPECTED..EXCEPT FOR THOSE PARTS OF NM AND CO WHERE THE
UPSLOPE FLOW COMES INTO PLAY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS MORE
ANOMALOUS...AS THE GFS FORECASTS PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES NEAR
2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN EASTERN NM.  CONSEQUENTLY...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED.  MANUAL PROGS BLENDED
CONTINUITY WITH THE 12Z NAM/09Z SREF MEAN/12Z CANADIAN REGIONAL
GEM/12Z UKMET.


...MID ATLANTIC STATES/SOUTHEAST/FL...

THE WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS IS FCST TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  LARGE
SCALE LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE..ALONG WITH A SLUG OF HIGHER PW
AIR..NEAR OF ABOVE 2 INCHES..BEING PULLED UP ON ITS EAST
SIDE..SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS THRU MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION.  MODEL QPFS GENERALLY IN THE
0.25-0.50+ INCH RANGE WERE FOLLOWED HERE.
FURTHER SOUTH...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE CAROLINAS
IN THE LEE TROUGH AND IN FL IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND DOWNSTREAM FROM A 700 MB TROUGH IN NORTHERN FL TO
THE EASTERN GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF FCST 1.75-1.9 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THESE AREAS SO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. MANUAL QPF BLENDED THE 12Z CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM AND
UKMET AND 00Z ECMWF QPF.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

PETERSEN

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 539756 539748 538740 537732 535727 529723 525722 520723
      512726 507729 505729 504726 503720 500716 493709 481697
      474693 471691 465691 456694 446698 437702 433704 429704
      424705 420708 417710 414714 411718 408721 404724 398725
      392727 386727 378725 369723 362726 344734 340735 335738
      332740 328744 315759 307771 279794 275796 271795 260796
      253800 248804 247807 249817 252825 255835 262842 270844
      281842 283840 285838 288839 292849 296857 299859 304861
      310862 317855 320853 323851 326852 331852 338852 340852
      342855 342861 344864 344871 348878 350880 349883 347887
      345890 343890 339893 336895 337902 337914 337921 338926
      343949 343954 342958 337966 332974 326981 324984 320986
      309990 302993 295996 287999 283002 280005 277007 273009
      268010 261010 258011 255015 255025 256031 255036 252039
      249039 246038 237035 231035 227037 226044 228054 233060
      237062 242063 249069 264080 278088 292098 306108 309111
      313112 318114 322115 327108 333108 337112 341118 346126
      351132 360137 366139 367142 365148 361150 359153 358160
      361161 366161 369158 373161 375166 373170 370174 366176
      363178 361179 360182 364189 371195 378202 384209 389215
      393219 393222 390225 389231 391235 395240 398242 403243
      412245 422246 427242 437226 441216 442206 438199 431192
      428189 422187 417180 416177 415170 420161 421147 419136
      419133 422132 427132 433134 432142 432149 433153 435157
      438161 442162 445160 454161 473166 489176 500179 508178
      513179 514182 524181 527169 527166 525159 524155 521152
      518148 514146 506142 499136 491131 483126 480124 475124
      472121 472118 471111 470100 466099 463097 458096 456091
      453080 449068 452056
 0.01 452056 454041 455035 452034 442030 437030 433032 425035
      415037 396041 390039 386037 378032 376031 376028 377022
      378008 383999 388990 393982 398973 403965 409957 418940
      423932 426927 429924 442911 455898 470886 484874 490868
      497861 508846 514838 519829 527808 529803 530797 533784
      537770 539756
 0.01 393803 388799 386795 378785 368782 363780 358783 354786
      351791 344801 343807 343812 346813 352814 358812 364810
      369806 372803 378804 390805 393803
 0.25 529774 529772 528773 527775 528776 529774 529774
 0.25 524768 525762 523759 521757 517756 509759 504758 492756
      487754 481750 478745 473745 461753 453761 446773 434780
      426791 423796 419802 408810 398818 393822 385825 380829
      377835 373846 364873 362890 360909 353939 351945 349952
      344965 337976 333980 329985 324988 319992 308998 299005
      289013 285017 281023 280026 281030 286035 290039 294042
      301046 306048 313051 314054 317059 325061 328067 329076
      330084 332089 339099 349091 362089 368090 374094 377095
      380095 385092 389092 391095 394102 393111 394115 396117
      406114 415113 419115 423116 428113 432107 437105 441100
      444099 445095 431073 427072 424068 426060 426055 424051
      418050 411051 395048 384043 378041 370039 366035 365027
      367020 370011 376999 382988 395963 408939 415928 422916
      429905 436892 445881 454874 463868 469863 473860 483852
      493843 502834 506828 511820 518792 520785 522780 524772
      524768
 0.25 477777 478774 476774 473776 467780 462786 457791 453796
      450800 450804 450810 452811 459809 465805 468802 468799
      469793 472784 477778 477777
 0.25 439741 437734 433730 432725 430723 424723 418725 413728
      407739 404743 402750 400765 403771 407774 412771 415769
      416767 419754 431749 436745 439743 439741
 0.25 424222 423217 419218 417213 414211 411211 409210 403205
      396191 391186 382184 377183 373183 370185 369187 371190
      377196 382200 388205 395209 399210 402214 410225 412228
      413232 415234 418233 421225 424222
 0.25 402102 403100 403097 403095 401096 400097 400099 400101
      400104 400106 400107 401106 402104 402103 402102
 0.25 393172 393170 393169 393167 392165 390163 389163 387164
      386166 386168 386170 386173 386174 386175 387176 389177
      391176 392174 393174 393172
 0.25 394151 395146 393142 389137 388133 388127 388118 386115
      382114 379115 376119 375124 376130 379136 385141 387150
      390153 394151
 0.25 358768 358763 354762 351762 349764 344770 342777 338783
      335790 335794 338793 344790 349784 354778 357772 358768
 0.25 328811 326810 324811 323812 324814 325814 326813 328812
      328811
 0.25 320800 320795 318793 312794 305797 298800 291803 287808
      281809 274808 261806 259807 257810 257815 259817 261821
      263823 269825 275826 283827 297826 304823 308820 309815
      311813 315809 319804 320800
 0.25 264066 261062 258059 254057 250055 246054 241052 240055
      241057 244060 248061 252063 256065 260067 264066
 0.50 505795 505787 501786 496788 493791 490794 488798 480804
      475810 467814 466819 467824 475822 485820 493817 498816
      501814 503812 504808 504803 505795
 0.50 491830 490828 487827 482830 473838 464845 456852 446858
      443860 442863 442868 445870 450871 455868 465862 474855
      483847 486843 489838 491830
 0.50 460775 460768 458767 455768 453772 451775 448778 445783
      442786 441791 442794 444795 447792 450789 453784 455781
      458778 460775
 0.50 437811 437808 434808 430810 424812 419811 416812 412815
      404824 403829 403835 404843 400844 397840 392840 385848
      382853 380859 375866 373879 369892 368897 368905 367912
      365919 358938 349958 345968 339977 333984 325991 316996
      309001 306005 304010 302016 302019 319031 324039 329042
      335043 341045 345048 342059 336066 334071 335077 338080
      342083 352081 360078 367078 372080 376080 381078 389071
      396066 399062 400057 398053 393050 383047 374043 362043
      358042 357038 359034 362023 365012 370001 380982 391962
      400945 410926 420906 425897 430887 434877 434872 432869
      428868 401896 402889 400881 400876 402871 405866 408865
      410861 411858 410854 411848 416845 418849 416853 412863
      410866 409868 412870 417866 419862 421856 424852 430844
      436835 437832 434832 435824 437811
 0.50 414837 412837 412838 411839 410840 411842 412840 413840
      414838 414837
 0.50 392197 391197 391195 390192 389190 387190 385189 384189
      383188 382188 381188 380188 379190 378192 379194 381195
      382197 384198 386199 387199 389199 390199 391198 392197
 0.50 291820 289816 284816 279815 275814 270814 266814 266817
      272817 275818 279819 283818 287820 290821 291820
 1.00 406922 406915 404912 401913 398916 392922 388922 385920
      385912 385906 383903 378900 374907 370927 368936 365945
      360951 355956 346970 342977 337984 326995 316005 316009
      319012 323019 327026 334031 341033 347033 350032 355027
      359020 363011 366003 374987 381972 389958 397943 402932
      406922
 1.00 388872 388870 388868 388865 387865 386867 385868 384870
      384871 384872 384873 385875 384876 384877 384878 386877
      387874 388872 388872
 1.00 379051 378050 376049 374049 372049 370049 369050 367050
      367051 365052 364052 363053 362054 363055 365055 366055
      368055 368054 370054 372054 374054 376053 377053 379051
 1.50 402919 401917 399919 395924 391929 386933 379931 375936
      373941 370949 368956 364963 361965 359963 355961 340982
      331991 327996 326999 325003 327010 329013 329015 328019
      330022 334023 335025 340028 347028 352025 356020 360014
      362007 368994 380970 388957 394945 396938 398930 402919
 1.50 377925 377922 377920 377919 377920 377922 377925 377925
 2.00 393940 394936 392934 388938 383941 377942 368963 362973
      358974 352972 337988 333991 330996 330000 333004 339024
      346024 350021 357014 361002 366992 377971 388952 391946
      393940
 3.00 361989 355990 353992 353987 350982 343987 338991 338996
      340000 342000 346998 348997 348002 347005 348009 353007
      353001 353998 355996 360992 361989

$$




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