Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 311827
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
226 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 01/0000 UTC THRU AUG 02/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


SOUTHERN ROCKIES/WEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NM AND WESTERN
TX WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION FOCUSING ALONG
THE FAVORED ERN UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN CO INTO NM/EXTREME
WESTERN TX UNDER A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  PRECIPITABLE OF
~1.50 INCHES COMBINED WITH 850-700 HPA INFLOW OF 20+ KTS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND CAPES EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING MEET THE CRITERIA FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.  SOME
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW (10-20 KTS) ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ SHOULD FOCUS
CONVECTION WITHIN AND NEAR THEIR SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS, SO INCREASED
AMOUNTS FROM CONTINUITY HERE IN DEFERENCE TO SOME OF THE 00Z, 06Z,
AND 12Z MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE.  AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  THE
BEST CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RESIDES ACROSS MOIST AREAS OF NM
AND CO.


LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MODEST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DRAWING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF ~2 INCHES INTO AND IN ADVANCE OF A CYCLONE AND ITS
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
BETWEEN NOW AND LATE WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
THRU PARTS OF EASTERN TX, LA, AND WESTERN MS AS 850 HPA INFLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OCCASIONALLY INCREASES TO 25-30 KTS WITHIN
AN AREA OF 2-2.25" PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES -- ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.  VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN
AREA SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT FORWARD PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST
IS EXPECTED AT ROUGHLY 10-15 KTS, WHICH COULD OUTRACE THE COLD
FRONT AND LEAD TO A NEW CONVECTIVE LINE BACK ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT SOME POINT IN TIME (POSSIBLY TONIGHT).  AS 850 HPA
INFLOW APPEARS TO BE NARROW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THE RISK OF A
TRAINING WARM ADVECTION THUNDERSTORM BAND APPEARS MINIMAL NEAR THE
LA/AR BORDER.  HOURLY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2.5" ARE SUPPORTED BY
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUPPLY, WITH A QUICK 2-4" POSSIBLE.  PER
THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE, INCREASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM
CONTINUITY, WITHOUT GETTING TOO EXTREME.


SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SC FROM THE ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
FROM NEAR CHARLESTON TOWARDS THE TOPOGRAPHY.  TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z, 850 HPA INFLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN GA
INCREASES OVER 25 KTS WHILE UPSTREAM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES REMAIN
~1000 J/KG (PER RECENT RAP GUIDANCE), SETTING OFF A NEW ROUND OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AHEAD OF AN 850 HPA CYCLONE.  VEERING WINDS
IN THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FORWARD PROPAGATION, AND
THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST 20 KTS OF
NORTHEAST MOTION FROM NORTHERN GA INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS,
SETTING UP THE POSSIBILITY OF CELL TRAINING.  AS AN 850 HPA LOW
MOVES UP THE APPALACHIANS, HEAVY RAINS SHOULD SHIFT UP INTO
SOUTHWEST VA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST, IN THE
1.75-2" RANGE.  THIS SUGGESTS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2" AN HOUR ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS BACKBUILD, OR MORE LIKELY, TRAIN.  WHILE THE
GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONSISTENT ON A SECONDARY RAINFALL MAXIMUM ACROSS
EASTERN NC ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH/POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT, THE 12Z MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS NOT, SO GENERALLY LEFT
CONTINUITY ALONE HERE SINCE IT WAS WELL WITHIN THE GUIDANCE
SPREAD.


GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN UNSEASONABLY COOL CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST ESPECIALLY DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING WITHIN
AN AREA OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1-1.25".  EXPECT AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS OF .25" TO .50" AT MOST HERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
IN ANY AREAS OF CELL TRAINING.


FLORIDA
~~~~~~~
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES -- IN THE 2-2.25" RANGE -- COMBINED
WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE SURFACE-700 HPA LAYER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD FORCE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE-RELATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO PREFER THE
EVERGLADES AND POTENTIALLY THE GOLD COAST OF FL.  HOURLY RAIN
RATES UP TO 2.5" ARE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4" FORECAST
WHERE CELLS MERGE/TRAIN.  TOMORROW, THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL RELATED TO SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE SHOULD FOCUS MORE
TOWARDS THE WEST COAST AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.


ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 531178 532173 531167 528161 524154 518148 513144 509143
      507140 499137 493133 482125 477124 475126 477132 480138
      487144 491149 497153 503158 508164 511171 515177 518180
      521182 527183 531178
 0.01 498680 497671 494667 490665 487665 477669 473672 469673
      466676 462678 454685 444700 437706 428711 422706 418708
      415713 407728 402736 397745 395751 392755 390757 388754
      387748 386740 384735 380726 372726 368728 364731 361733
      356736 350737 346740 341744 334750 318761 312766 304772
      287782 282785 275786 270787 265786 261786 258789 254791
      251795 246800 242809 241813 241819 244823 247822 255826
      264829 273830 283832 291833 299836 303838 304844 305859
      306866 306870 305873 301881 299892 296901 294912 290921
      285928 281935 276941 273949 274956 277958 279959 280961
      281966 282989 283995 281000 277011 277026 278031 276035
      272043 271048 270051 267051 258052 252052 247049 239047
      235048 232052 228059 229065 231067 236074 243080 256090
      267095 274101 287114 292120 300126 309130 313132 316135
      319138 322143 325150 328157 331158 334154 339145 342145
      344147 347149 353146 355144 354138 354134 356131 360126
      366121 353109 350104 352100 355097 360096 364093 367093
      369095 373101 388104 384110 378114 374118 372122 369126
      370130 371134 374137 376142 373147 365150 363152 359150
      356149 351151 349157 354164 363180 368186 374191 384198
      386197 386192 382186 380181 379176 379169 382168 385168
      394168 401167 404165 406166 408172 411184 413195 410210
      409217 410222 411226 414229 418235 422236 424232 428228
      432227 440225 443225 449226 453226 456222 457217 455212
      452210 451203 456192 462188 464183 465175 466167 464161
      462159 463155 467152 469150 467145 462136 457129 454125
      455120 456106 456100 453094 446092 438088 435090 430090
      428089 426092 427096 428101 426106 423108 419114 414111
      413107 411101 408099 404101 403095 402090 402085 404081
      414066
 0.01 414066 417065 418062 412058 410056 409052 405045 401041
      395036 390033 383033 380034 379031 376025 374021 372021
      368019 364018 363016 360016 353019 346017 343015 338014
      330015 325016 323017 317020 314021 311019 304006 301000
      303994 317973 339956 345951 348943 354930 355926 357927
      366927 377922 382918 387915 399910 405911 410917 415923
      416933 413935 408934 401933 396929 390926 387927 386930
      386937 396945 402949 404950 403954 400954 397957 394963
      394968 395971 401975 402981 403986 405989 408988 410984
      414977 417972 421966 421961 420958 427957 435957 442955
      453950 455949 458947 462940 464932 465920 467898 470880
      469869 466862 464860 460860 453863 452862 453860 455857
      456853 458852 463846 465844 464839 453830 449828 442825
      441821 442817 445807 446799 445788 443786 439786 435789
      429802 426810 423815 416826 410830 407831 404833 399839
      395845 387858 379870 371881 355903 352905 349903 347899
      344897 341895 340891 342884 349875 353870 357865 367854
      376844 396826 406815 411810 416804 423792 428781 433766
      435757 437750 449742 448729 455718 459712 463706 491693
      494691 496686 498680
 0.01 496100 496091 495084 494071 492056 489045 486040 482040
      478044 478052 480064 481071 483077 485083 485086 484090
      483096 484103 487106 492105 496100
 0.01 476999 476992 475986 474981 470979 465978 460978 457980
      453983 453988 453994 457997 460999 465000 470000 475000
      476999
 0.01 449173 448167 445164 440161 438158 434150 432145 429145
      426146 423146 421152 421164 422169 425174 427182 432190
      434192 436191 439187 441183 443180 446177 449173
 0.01 453864 452862 450863 448863 447865 445865 443866 442866
      440866 438866 437868 437871 437873 438874 440873 441873
      442872 444871 445871 446870 447869 449868 449867 450866
      452865 453864
 0.01 431873 431871 430869 428867 426866 424866 423867 423868
      421870 421872 423873 425874 426875 428875 430875 431873
 0.01 329166 329164 329163 328161 327160 326160 324160 323160
      323163 324165 325166 327166 328166 329166
 0.01 320160 320157 319155 315154 314152 310151 307150 304151
      303152 304155 306157 307158 311160 313161 316162 318162
      320160
 0.25 455901 456893 455886 455879 451877 447877 444877 439880
      441885 442889 444895 446900 448904 453904 455901
 0.25 403783 403777 402775 397772 385776 379777 374781 371782
      369779 371772 371764 375760 377758 378753 378747 377739
      375737 372737 367740 361745 350747 341754 332761 322769
      313776 305784 283796 278799 271801 258804 254805 253808
      253815 257818 261821 273824 286825 298826 301826 302823
      299819 295813 295811 297810 310807 316806 322808 323812
      323815 320821 317826 316829 318831 323829 328826 333823
      335825 334828 334836 334840 336845 339850 344852 351850
      356848 364840 371830 373828 375829 380825 383821 386816
      399795 403783
 0.25 393066 395061 394057 391053 388049 383047 378045 374042
      369039 364038 342032 317032 311030 308026 300021 297015
      294012 288011 285012 284014 283018 285024 289027 295029
      298031 295036 293041 295045 296052 294059 292065 290069
      286071 279070 268066 256064 249064 245065 246071 249076
      255082 260085 267086 277090 292103 309115 314118 319119
      327115 332112 337111 340106 340099 341092 343086 347081
      349076 351074 354074 359073 364074 369077 376084 380083
      381082 382074 393066
 0.25 339926 340917 340909 338904 335898 328890 324887 318887
      313890 311894 306903 296924 290933 286943 284957 285963
      285970 289997 292984 297973 303964 310956 317949 325943
      333936 339926 339926
 0.50 385056 384052 381049 374047 366045 358044 354042 352040
      344037 341036 336036 331038 324040 320041 318044 315046
      311045 308039 306036 302034 297039 296043 299046 303049
      305053 305058 307066 306072 304074 299078 294082 291085
      291089 292093 295095 302094 309096 316100 321101 323100
      329094 333088 336082 338078 338076 335069 336066 340065
      344064 348065 352066 356066 364065 369069 374074 376072
      376069 373061 371057 376056 382057 385056
 0.50 380798 380793 377789 372790 366793 361798 357802 353806
      345816 341822 338830 338837 341844 344845 348845 354843
      358838 362832 368822 375809 380798
 0.50 375751 374745 371743 366744 363749 360751 356750 351753
      337762 330767 324772 318778 313783 309789 308793 310794
      314796 322796 327795 330797 338797 346794 358784 361777
      364769 368761 373754 375751
 0.50 336919 336912 335907 333902 331899 324895 321894 318895
      315898 310905 306913 297928 293935 290943 288948 287954
      288966 288973 289977 292977 295972 299964 304958 309952
      315945 328934 333928 336919
 0.50 296023 296022 296021 295019 294016 292015 291014 290014
      289014 287015 286016 285018 286020 287022 288024 289024
      290025 292025 294025 296023 296023
 0.50 288818 286814 284813 279811 275809 269807 263806 260806
      257807 255810 257813 261817 265820 270821 276822 283822
      288818
 1.00 371804 369801 365802 360806 355810 350815 346822 343829
      343835 345838 347840 349839 353837 358832 361825 365820
      368813 371804 371804
 1.00 366054 365051 361050 354050 350050 349048 348044 346042
      342042 337045 333047 325048 322052 318055 314058 315064
      320067 326066 332062 336059 339054 343052 354056 361057
      366054
 1.00 359767 359764 357761 354764 351768 348771 346774 343778
      340781 342787 346787 349785 352782 354779 356775 358770
      359767
 1.00 330919 331915 331911 328905 322904 319902 312912 305922
      299931 296936 294943 292949 294954 296955 299955 304952
      311943 314939 318935 323931 326926 330919
 1.00 291020 290020 289019 288020 289021 290021 291020
 1.00 272816 271815 270815 269816 270817 272817 272816
 1.50 364814 362811 359812 355815 352817 349822 347827 346831
      348835 351835 355832 357828 360823 361821 363816 364814
 1.50 332055 331053 331052 329051 327052 326053 326055 325057
      327059 328059 330059 331058 332056 332055
 1.50 324061 324059 323058 321058 319058 318058 318061 319062
      321062 323062 324061
 1.50 327917 327912 324910 317911 312917 308922 303928 299934
      297941 300942 303939 306933 312929 317926 323922 327917
 2.00 360819 359816 357818 354819 352822 352824 351827 349831
      351832 353830 354828 354826 356821 358820 360819

$$




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