Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 241904
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
303 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 25/0000 UTC THRU SEP 26/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS....

MODELS SHOW GOOD LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT IN THE MASS FIELDS WITH
WHAT HAD BEEN A NIGHTMARE OF A TROUGH IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. ENOUGH
OF THE TROUGH SPILLS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...TO FOSTER WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
EXPECT PERIODS OF TRAINING BUT ALSO A STEADY EASTWARD PROPAGATION
OWING TO ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE SOUNDINGS AND GENERALLY VEERING LOW
LEVEL FLOW AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS LIFT OUT OF THE REGION TOWARD
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE RESULT IS A ZONE OF MODERATE AND EMBEDDED
HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY FROM WEST TX/OK INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NARROWING FARTHER NORTH.

THE CONCERN FOR BETTER ORGANIZED AND LARGER SCALE HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
TO SET UP GRADUALLY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS A
PORTION OF THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF A CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS SETS UP A DIFLUENT PATTERN OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
TEXAS...IN ADDITION TO BACKED AND ACCELERATED LOW LEVEL
INFLOW...TAPPING INTO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE LOCATED ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. ONE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR THE ACCUMULATION OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS THIS EVENING...INCLUDING THOSE POTENTIALLY
COMING DOWN OUT OF THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED MEXICAN PLATEAU
REGION...TO SET UP A FOCUS FOR ASCENT EAST OF THE BIG BEND AREA OF
TEXAS...NEAR AND SOUTH OF OZONA. THIS IS SEEN IN RECENT GEM
REGIONAL AND WRF-ARW RUNS...AS WELL AS THE 12Z NSSL WRF. WPC
ATTEMPTED TO DEPICT THIS SCENARIO...IN ADDITION TO THE MORE DEEPLY
FORCED SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FORM IN THE DEFORMATION
AREA AS THE CLOSED LOW TAKES SHAPE BACK TOWARD THE MIDLAND AREA.
WHILE THIS RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE HEAVY...THE MODEL QPF
SIGNAL SUGGESTS WHEREVER THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE EFFECTIVE FRONT
/ OUTFLOWS SETS UP ON SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE A PARTICULARLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTALS OVER 7 INCHES. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT HOWEVER...AND AFTER COORDINATING WITH
LOCAL OFFICES...WE WILL NOT TREND FULLY TOWARD THE WRF-ARW AND
NSSL WRF...BUT INSTEAD TRY TO KEEP A LITTLE MORE CONTINUITY FOR
ONE MORE CYCLE.


...ELSEWHERE...

COORDINATED WITH WFO MPX...ARX...DMX...DVN TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT
RISK OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. PARTS OF THIS
REGION ARE DEALING WITH ONGOING RIVER FLOODING AND SATURATED
SOILS. SOME OF THE HEAVIER QPF IN THE MODELS IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT...FALLING OVER WESTERN IOWA. THERE ARE SOME
REASONS...THOUGH...TO EXPECT CONVECTION FARTHER EAST MAY EXCEED
EXPECTATIONS...AS A WEDGE OF MODERATE CAPE WILL LIKELY FORM TODAY
IN BETWEEN THE SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER NORTHEAST IOWA
AND THE APPROACHING BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION FROM THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH STRONGEST FOCUS FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT LIFTS NORTHWARD
INTO MINNESOTA...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY HEALTHY FETCH OF
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
HERE...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS MAP...WPC BEGAN WITH A
40/30/30 BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST / WRF-ARW / NSSL WRF.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 26/00Z
 0.01 561988 561982 560978 558970 556958 555948 552921 548915
      547904 541890 535877 532868 528862 515858 503853 497851
      490848 478844 461849 446855 435862 412875 402882 392892
      381902 371912 351934 342943 339945 336945 328945 320945
      316945 314943 302934 299932 294931 288931 283936 277939
      273945 270952 267958 262962 259967 257976 257980 258984
      260989 265993 268995 269999 265000 261001 256997 250997
      245997 241003 241008 242011 244018 246021 246026 247031
      247035 246046 247052 244059 244065 246071 250075 277087
      278092 280093 284091 287093 292099 297105 301109 305106
      307102 307097 308093 306090 299078 297076 297071 300066
      305063 308061 312061 322061 328060 336058 342052 345046
      348039 351032 356025 362014 367007 372004 383998 393990
      398985 403980 406977 410976 415974 431969 438968 445970
      453971 460974 472978 478982 475989 473996 468000 463006
      461014 459018 456022 450024 444028 438032 434037 437045
      442058 445061 449062 455065 462068 467067 493059 507056
      523057 529054 534053 539051 541048 545042 549036 551030
      554026 554023 552015 561988
 0.01 539208 540202 540198 538189 536182 530178 526172 524170
      520170 510173 508176 509179 512184 513189 509190 502188
      498187 496188 495195 498201 501202 503205 507207 509211
      512216 523219 530221 535218 538213 539208
 0.01 523264 522255 521249 520246 516238 512232 507226 499223
      496215 490215 488217 487223 490229 490235 487236 484237
      481239 479238 477235 475236 475240 477244 478249 478259
      476271 477275 479278 484284 489289 496291 503290 507288
      513288
 0.01 495666 494660 492658 490659 487663 482675 480678 478677
      475671 473667 470667 469670 469676 470687 468693 466696
      466701 468702 472701 476701 476704 475712 475717 478717
      481711 482702 485695 490682 493675 495666 495666
 0.01 448077 448073 446072 445070 441069 440067 438069 436069
      434072 434073 436074 440072 443074 444075 446077 448077
 0.01 443096 435083 426072 420069 416063 404056 399055 397057
      393061 391065 392068 396066 398064 400066 399069 397076
      399078 402077 408073 418083 423089 429094 434097 441098
      443096
 0.01 392054 390052 388052 386054 383053 381051 377051 376051
      372053 376053 379053 381056 383054 384056 386056 390054
      392054
 0.01 383793 382787 380784 377778 376773 379774 381775 381770
      377764 372760 367761 365764 363766 364771 366777 371786
      376790 381794 383793
 0.01 377810 374805 369805 363807 358809 352816 348820 345824
      343829 342835 342842 344847 349849 352847 358839 360833
      364830 369829 371824 375813 377810
 0.01 351789 351782 350777 347774 342773 339777 337780 333788
      328795 325803 325810 330810 335811 337813 341812 343807
      346798 350791 351789
 0.01 338093 339091 337088 336084 336080 336077 332077 331077
      330081 332082 333086 333088 335091 337093 338093
 0.01 332770 331762 326760 321762 317765 314770 312777 308786
      303797 302803 304808 301810 289806 285804 285800 287794
      285787 281783 274784 267785 261788 253792 245800 241804
      241811 242818 246823 253819 258820 264822 274827 279829
      285830 290832 293835 296840 297848 298857 300863 301867
      299876 299881 300887 301894 301903 304908 309911 313910
      317910 321911 328917 330919 333915 334906 331900 325891
      324887 324883 325879 323874 320869 317864 316856 318842
      319836 319830 320824 320815 317804 325784 330776 332770
 0.01 313809 311808 309808 307808 306810 308811 310811 311811
      313809
 0.25 552974 552968 551964 549953 548947 547941 544931 540922
      536913 530896 526889 521881 517879 510876 504873 497868
      487861 481859 472858 455862 448866 442870 434874 426877
      415887 410894 410897 412899 419900 424901 427902 429904
      428907 426911 422915 411924 403926 395928 387931 382930
      382925 385921 391915 401908 404905 403901 400900 397901
      391906 384911 376915 372920 368925 364932 359940 355945
      349951 343954 329962 316970 310973 306972 305969 304960
      305954 304948 301940 297936 293935 289936 283941 278947
      276954 272961 269965 269971 273978 270981 269984 273986
      276984 277979 279978 288979 291981 293985 286990 283996
      278010 274016 270021 270026 271031 272035 271038 263042
      256045 254047 255051 253061 254067 256069 263072 272073
      275071 277068 284054 295051 300054 306052 312051 317051
      323053 327052 332047 334036 338024 344020 347019 350013
      356008 361006 366003 370999 374996 385988 394977 398971
      407970 414966 419962 424963 429961 437958 443959 452961
      458964 462967 467969 472969 481969 489962 495979 496984
      494987 488992 489997 491001 490007 484014 478018 472021
      469024 467028 458038 444043 453054 459057 464055 478048
      491042 497038 503031 511019 518018 525020 530020 534019
      540014 543006 545000 547998 549992 550985 552974
 0.25 530200 530199 529197 529196 528199 528201 530200 530200
 0.25 513271 515262 514256 513249 511244 509238 505234 502234
      499237 500251 499255 497255 494251 490248 487253 487264
      488271 492275 497278 502278 510274 513271
 0.25 484949 483944 485939 482936 479933 474934 471937 469940
      466944 467946 470949 474951 477953 482954 484949
 0.25 320787 321782 319779 318781 316783 314785 312788 311790
      310794 309797 310800 312801 315800 316798 317794 318791
      319789 320787
 0.25 311886 312879 312873 310867 309863 309856 308850 305847
      302850 303857 305861 306867 306873 306880 307885 311886
      311886
 0.25 281823 280818 277815 271814 269811 269808 269803 266800
      261797 255798 250802 248806 248810 253814 261816 267818
      273822 280824 281823
 0.25 264017 265015 263013 262013 260013 260012 258012 256012
      254012 252014 254016 256017 258017 259018 261019 262019
      263018 264017
 0.25 253006 252004 251003 249004 249006 251008 252008 253007
      253006
 0.50 546982 547972 546962 542947 540938 538931 535924 531918
      516902 509895 511892 508887 499881 491872 487868 481866
      476867 471870 466875 466880 475883 475887 473890 471896
      470900 467900 460901 454901 448903 438910 431918 426923
      421926 402936 395938 390939 384940 379943 372944 370941
      371938 378927 377922 376923 371927 365938 359947 352954
      342960 331965 322970 314978 310983 306987 301989 294990
      288993 286997 282007 281015 277019 274023 275030 280039
      285041 291039 297043 301046 314046 318046 320048 325047
      327042 329038 330031 333023 337019 342015 348008 357000
      365990 367988 370989 374989 378989 383986 387981 392970
      395965 397963 400964 404965 407964 411961 418953 423952
      425954 428955 437949 448944 454942 454935 451930 447928
      445925 447921 450916 457915 464913 473918 484913 490911
      492909 491907 488902 492898 493895 496896 497898 496901
      497908 500916 496927 498934 501937 501941 500943 497948
      496954 497958 500964 514985 518000 521006 526009 532009
      536007 539002 541995 544988 546982
 0.50 508267 510262 510257 510254 509251 508248 506245 504244
      502246 502250 503254 503257 504261 505265 507267 508267
 0.50 496268 495265 495264 495262 495259 494259 494256 493256
      492255 491255 491258 491260 491261 491263 492265 493266
      494267 495268 496268 496268
 0.50 494026 496022 494019 491020 483025 476028 472030 469033
      464040 458046 460049 464050 470048 477044 480041 483037
      489031 494026
 0.50 475962 474960 473959 472958 471957 469957 467957 466957
      464958 464959 464960 465962 466963 467964 468964 469965
      471965 472965 473964 474964 475962
 0.50 460883 460874 457868 452870 447872 442877 439881 435885
      434890 436895 438900 443898 448895 453892 456888 460883
 0.50 428883 430881 429878 428878 427879 425881 424881 423882
      422884 422885 420886 420887 419888 420890 422890 423890
      425888 427886 428883 428883
 0.50 314794 313792 313794 314794
 0.50 302949 301945 299941 295939 291939 285945 280952 277961
      274968 274973 277976 285972 288969 290964 291960 294957
      298956 301952 302949
 0.50 278055 278050 273050 270053 269049 265048 262049 261053
      259058 258063 260066 266068 270066 271062 275059 277055
      278055
 0.50 267804 265803 263803 261803 259803 257803 256804 254804
      252806 251808 251810 253811 254812 255812 257812 258813
      260813 262813 262811 263809 263807 264807 265806 267804
 1.00 540973 538957 536952 533949 529945 525944 518951 514953
      509953 505956 507961 511965 514969 519978 525986 528991
      530993 532993 536981 540973
 1.00 440933 440932 438933 436933 436934 439934 440933 440933
 1.00 413945 414942 412940 410941 409942 407942 407943 405945
      403947 405948 407949 409949 410948 411947 412946 413945
 1.00 389956 387952 384950 381949 377949 370953 366956 357958
      351961 341967 334971 331974 325986 319991 305992 295995
      289999 285006 284016 281022 280027 281030 288034 296032
      299034 300038 302040 306041 309040 312037 318033 322029
      327024 332018 335012 340007 350996 354992 356989 357985
      362979 367974 379967 389956
 1.00 385970 384968 382968 381970 380970 379971 378972 377974
      378976 380976 382974 384972 385970
 1.00 291949 290949 288949 288952 289952 290951 291949
 1.50 532968 532965 531963 531960 530958 529957 528957 527956
      525957 523958 522959 520960 520962 522964 523965 525967
      525968 526969 528970 528971 530971 531969 532968
 1.50 372963 370961 362962 352965 347969 342971 337974 334980
      328991 324994 319996 304994 298996 293998 289003 288010
      288014 287017 284022 285029 292029 297027 301029 303032
      306035 310032 319025 323022 328018 333008 341999 346988
      362972 368967 372963
 2.00 354971 354969 352969 348972 341977 338980 338983 338986
      334988 328996 322002 302996 297998 293001 291004 291010
      292015 289020 293022 297023 300023 304026 308029 312027
      319021 325015 330006 336999 339989 345982 350976 354971
 3.00 313020 313013 307013 304013 303011 306006 306004 303004
      300002 297001 295002 294006 294010 296015 301017 303017
      304019 308024 310024 312022 313020

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