Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 110656
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
156 AM EST MON DEC 11 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 11/1200 UTC THRU DEC 12/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NORTHERN PLAINS..UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GT LAKES..NEW ENGLAND

THE ONLY HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT PCPN WILL FALL ACROSS THIS
REGION OF THE LOWER 48 STATES..AS AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACCOMPANIES A PAIR OF CLIPPER S/WV FEATURES DROPPING SEWD FROM
CANADA.  INITIAL S/WV WILL SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
TRACK ACRS SRN WI AND THROUGH SRN LOWER MI MON NIGHT.  A SECONDARY
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DVLP NORTH OF THIS WAVE ACRS THE NRN GT LAKES
IN RESPONSE TO A STGR S/WV THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE WRN AND
CNTL LAKES REGION WITH THE LOWS EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATING TOWARD
LAKE ERIE BY TUES MORNING AS SYSTEMS BEGIN TO PHASE.  THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT AND RENEWED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
WITH STG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME
LOCAL .25"+ LIQUID EQUIVS JUST NORTH OF THE SRN LOW TRACK AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE CNTL U.P. OF MI AND THE ERN SHORES OF LAKE MI
WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE NWLY FETCH BEHIND THE DEEPENING SFC
SYSTEM. MODEL SPREAD REMAINS RATHER SMALL AND SO A BLEND OF
CONTINUITY AND HIER RES GUIDANCE WAS GENLY PREFERRED.   FOR
FURTHER DETAILS ON SNOW...PLEASE SEE QPFHSD.

SULLIVAN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


24HR QP VT 12/12Z
 0.01 501282 503277 503271 500264 493248 491245 488243 481243
      468243 462245 456249 455254 452256 445258 442258 440261
      441264 445267 446269 451271 458271 473272 480273 483272
      485272 486274 490281 493284 497285 501282
 0.01 517046 515040 512035 506027 492008 485997 480987 477981
      474974 471962 469956 468948 467940 468937 470935 476922
      479909 482904 484899 490889 495886 499880 501874 501865
      499859 502854 506850 508846 511838 512831 511821 510814
      509811 506811 504810 504806 503798 502794 501790 499787
      499783 496777 495774 492774 489780 486783 484786 481784
      479779 475776 473772 474768 474759 475742 474735 470732
      459729 456724 455722 453718 453713 454708 446710 442707
      438705 434703 430702 427708 423713 409728 405739 405750
      403755 399767 398772 398778 396786 392790 383797 376807
      372812 367815 359822 357824 357828 359830 365821 369819
      373821 376823 381818 383816 386819 388824 389832 391835
      396837 403838 407841 408844 407849 404845 398843 394842
      395844 397848 400852 408861 411867 412875 412883 413886
      415889 417893 418901 419905 420907 424912 428917 431923
      433938 434944 435951 441981 439984 437983 430982 426978
      424980 426985 429990 436997 440000 447000 454006 462016
      469025 474029 479034 483036 487040 497046 505050 514051
      517046
 0.01 468656 464644 461638 458639 453640 449644 440650 426663
      413677 398688 392697 391702 391709 394711 399713 404711
      407707 418691 421688 425686 431684 435684 440683 444681
      452674 456670 458666 461662 466660 468656
 0.01 467684 466684 465685 463685 461686 461688 462689 464690
      465688 465687 466685 467684
 0.01 264792 260792 255792 251794 246795 240797 235798 232800
      235803 241802 245801 248798 253797 259796 262794 264792
 0.25 449660 449655 446654 443656 442658 439660 437663 436666
      435669 437672 440672 443670 445668 447665 448662 449660
 0.25 466873 466865 464860 460856 459854 457854 452857 448858
      442858 438858 433856 431855 429852 428850 425852 424858
      422860 422862 426866 430867 435865 445866 451866 457864
      459865 464868 466873
 0.25 460822 461819 460816 457813 449810 442807 438804 437799
      437794 438788 440784 441777 441772 440765 437753 433752
      430756 427765 425775 420783 416792 416804 417809 420813
      423818 423825 424831 426834 433828 435827 441826 445827
      448826 460822

$$




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